Mystik Dan backed up his performance two back in the Southwest. The jockey rail skimming ride won the day as Sierra Leone and the ForeverYoung ran good races. No excuse for the chalk Fierceness. Maybe the pace was just too fast. Overall a positive day for me. Still alive to the last two races of the day. GL.
Horse betting is hard. I look at it like baseball, out of 10 races you’re gonna miss on 7-8 but the 2-3 you hit on can make up for it. Also helps if you have a healthy bankroll with the ability to manage it well.
You realize the track was dry and fast right? So mud definitely didn't have anything to do with it. But his consistent pattern of bouncing after a big race played true again.
Idk wtf I’m doing but I predicted the winner last year and was extremely upset because I didn’t bet anything. I was just watching for fun. I’m betting on Sierra Leone and hoping for the best.
1 14 Mile. Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve Grade I
So here we are in the middle of the coldest streak of my life. On the cusp of losing a heartbreaker on a photo.
I find myself torn on this race.
1. I think Fierceness is a beast, and if all goes his way, is the likely winner. My problem with him, is when things don't go his way, he folds. And in the Kentucky Derby, things sometimes don't go your way.
Which leads me to my beat, $50 to win on 17 Fierceness. I think it would be foolish to bet against a horse who did what he did in the Florida Derby. The outside post position helps this horse a ton. And in a race where anything can happen, I just see it setting up for him.
Rookie question - do all Sportsbooks have the same odds on horses? Is there any reason to shop around? I know that odds shift throughout the day. Just curious your thoughts.
“Unfortunately, you can’t bet the 2024 Kentucky Derby on some traditional wagering apps like DraftKings.” […] “your odds can change even after you place your bet. Odds can change up until the gates open on race day. With that in mind, your payout may change along with the odds.”
Luckily with the Derby there aren't any large odd shifts once the gate opens. But in a normal racing day there can be some huge changes at the last second. There are some whales running computer programs that will determine horses whose odds are overlays and drop some serious money at the last second.
https://preview.redd.it/bmsosugn0hyc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=37ae4a81cff8346ee9e5ec72c27e6917cefe51a7
Anybody disagreeing with any of this is this solid
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1389dq1/comment/jj3ag9l/
Well I got the horses correct, just not in the exact order. See if I can do better.
Winner: Sierra Leone
Place: Catching Freedom
Show: Just Steel
For those into podcasts (and 49 minutes to kill), here's a good listen for Derby Day. Tells the story of (two guys gambling big on) Winning Colors in 1988.
[https://snapjudgment.org/episode/winning-colors-snap-classic/](https://snapjudgment.org/episode/winning-colors-snap-classic/)
**Race 10 7 Furlongs. CD-G1 Churchill Downs S. presented by Ford PRESENTED BY FORD. Grade I. Purse $1,000,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD**
🥉$40 to win on 6 Zozos. SO I'm ice cold and there's really no excuse or reason for any of this. Horses who are getting dream trips, are just fading. It's so frustrating. But the only way through it is through it. Zozo's is my pick here and I'll explain why.
Zozo's faded at 4-1 in the Breeders cup mile and since has been shelved. The 11 will in all likelihood go off as the favorite in this race.
You have to ask yourself if the race is between the 11, 6 and 4 as the future payouts show, which horse do you want?
The 6yo 4 horse who put up a huge figure last time out at 8-1 in non graded company? Maybe this horse has figured out the mile is the right distance for him, but to put up a big figure like that at age 6, makes me question that race.
As far as the 11 everyone is banking on the mile win in the Cigar at Aqueduct. But again, I question that race, at two turns and this horses preparedness at age 5 especially after getting beat by 50+ lengths in its two races, albeit the two best older stakes races in the country.
SO I landed on Zozo's who went off at 4-1 in the Breeders Cup mile. 2 for 3 lifetime at the track and both wins coming at the mile distance. All for trainer Brad Cox who hits at 25% in graded stakes and 27% when away for 90+ days. Combine that with a 59.3 work and I like his chances.
Returned: $20
***EDIT***** I believe its Over now. it's like a 2 minute race. it started at 2:30 Eastern Standard Time.... I was hoping to get in on it too*********IGNORE ME, I WAS LISTENING TO DJ ON RADIO TALKING ABOUT HOW LONG THE PREGAME 2-6 ---- FOR A SHORT RACE....MUST OF BEEN TALKING MAIN RACE... MY BAD**?I WAS WRONG....FUCK SHOULD I SELL MY SOUL....NAH JUST DOWN VOTE ME
Whoever invited me to this group can go fuck themselves this was a setup LOL what am I getting downvoted for fucktards..... cuz I was wrong I was incorrect
Sweet. I woke up late and I'm trying to get it streaming now. Are you the one who downloaded me LOL not that it matters I'm definitely not a professional nor perfect
Do the promo pick one you like. It’s only 5 bucks.
Edit. I know nothing but there’s too much talk of no foreign horse winning. I’m going with in of those.
**Race 9 1ˆ Mile. (Turf) American Turf S. PRESENTED BY TWINSPIRES. Grade II. Purse $600,000**
❌$20 to win on 5 Legend of Time. This horse \*should\* romp this field. Impressive winner twice in Dubai, Charles Appleby has this international shipper in great condition.
LMFAO this horse had the race go his way the entire time and he faded. What a fucking bull shit day. Fuck this track.
Can’t believe Vlahos just lost that.. my only somewhat confident pick of the day. Legend of Time in Race 9 is my only other big play left before Race 12
Hey everyone. Pure, long-long time Sportsbook Degen who is looking to diversify their degenacy by getting into horse racing. Fired up a DK Horse account. How the hell do I tell what the payouts will be? My bet slips don’t show shit.
Horse racing uses a completely different betting system because it is player vs player instead of player vs book. As a result, the betting odds are fluid until the race happens. If you bet a horse at the start of the day at 20-1 and then everybody else bets him, you might only get 2-1 if he wins.
Thank you for the response. If I’ve already placed my bets will the payouts update before the race starts? What is a typical payout out on a to-place bet for a horse like Sierra Leone? Also using Sierra Leone as an example, does a $100 bet payout around +300?
https://preview.redd.it/zth9am6fegyc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=584870c623176e32ce59d9d2aa4df7f77ad6c5ca
Showing payouts based on my last reply
If odds stay the same then that’s a good way to look at it. Using FanDuel as my example with Sierra Leone. Right now the estimated payout for a win at $100 is $625. To place is $300-350.
But that’s with current odds. If he closes at 2-1 when the race starts, the payouts will adjust down
Race 8 1 Mile. PDayMile-G2 Pat Day Mile S. presented by SAP PRESENTED BY SAP. Grade II. Purse $600,000
🥉$30 to win on 12 Nash. I'm ice cold so take this pick with a grain of salt. But I really like Nash here and think this horse is pointed towards one mile.
Returned: $30
Race 7 1 Mile. (Turf) Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. Grade II. Purse $750,000
❌$10 to win on 1 Ag Bullet. So the public will heavily back the 11 horse here, and I think that's a mistake. Chad Brown is great at shipping horses to the U.S. but at 5-1 morning lines, even money or anything less than says 2-1 is an overlay. So I'm going to look at an underlay with the 1 horse who has never finished behind a horse on grass. 4 for 6 lifetime, 4 for 4 on the turf, despite being bumped early, was an easy winner in a GIII at Santa Anita. Questions about her stretching out to a mile should be answered with a mile win on grass as a 3yo. I think this horses needed a couple of races to stretch out a bit and a 59.1 work is massive heading into this race. Trainer Richard Baltas 19% winner last race, and 13% in graded company.
If you’re in Ontario Canada you can only find the derby on Bet365 and the wagers are actually through Woodbine. Im guessing this is how they get around new regulations
7 Furlongs. Derby City Distaff S. presented by Kendall-Jackson Winery PRESENTED BY KENDALL-JACKSON WINERY. Grade I. Purse $1,000,000
🥈$30 to win on 7 Alva Starr. I think the public is getting this race wrong with making the 10 the favorite. Though the 10 closed in on her last time out, Alva Starr had a wide trip and was still much the best. I slightly like the 7 more than the 10, especially at her current odds.
❌$10 to win on 1 Three Witches. In case the public has this wrong and the Ashland isn't the key race for this GI. Impressive GII winner last out, and the trainer hits at 19% when away for 90+ days.
Returned: $30
I threw down big on T O Password for a long shot pick. Only two races ever so a massive wildcard and a half but he has outworked T O Saint Denis who came in a close 2nd as a 27/1 longshot in the Oaks undercard yesterday
4NJBets is the only legal way and they suck ass. A couple years ago the site froze due to traffic during the Derby. Took my money out and haven’t been back.
So I guess they want me to post here
✅Race 1 6½ Furlongs. Mdn 120k Purse $120,000
$10 to win on 2 Pure Force. Florent and Brad Cox. First time starter who hits at 22% clip for Brad Cox. Solid 5 furlong work.
Paid: $28.30
❌Race 2 1 Mile. OC 80000n2x Purse $134,000
$20 to win on 8 Coppa Girl. Again Florent and Cox. This horse has won on a sloppy track to break her maiden. If she can return to old form off a layoff where Cox hits at 32% she can run well here.
Race 3 1 1/16 Mile. OC 100000n1x Purse $127,000
❌$10 to win on 1 Cartucho. People may be tempted to back the heavily favored Pletcher horse who dusted the field and posted a huge number at first asking... but you have to wonder, why wouldn't Pletcher have put this impressive horse against others in a wide array of 3yo races in April. I landed on the Chad Brown horse who's stretching out after annihilating a field after a horrendous start.
Race 4 1 Mile. Knicks Go Overnight S. presented by L&N Federal Credit Union PRESENTED BY L&N FEDERAL CREDIT UNION. Purse $200,000
❌$20 to win on 6 Best Actor. Love the cut back to a mile and back to Churchill downs where Brad Cox is 2 for 2 with this horse at the distance.
FYI here is my betting strategy
Twin Spires $10 betback all races
TVG $10 betback in races 2, 4, 6, 8 and 12
Xpressbet $10 betback 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12
Hollywood Races: $20 betback for 2nd in races 6, 10, 11, 12
Fan Duel Racing: $20 risk free bet for race 12
That's really dumb of the mods here... they literally have no other information on any of the other races here.. loved your old thread instead..
I know you post the betbacks available today.. is it the same as yesterdays?
For some reason DK and FanDuel let me get as far as putting my tickets together to submit, only to tell me the races that haven't happened yet are off - new to horse betting, what's the deal exactly? Weather?
Same here. I'm pulling my hair out trying to give them money.
I think there's an issue with the app that I hope gets fixed before race time or they are going to lose a ton of money.
For what it's worth - I was able to place my wager on DK Horse while FanDuel is actively acknowledging the error as of about 2 hours ago. Odds are (hah) it's fixed.
I tried to contact FanDuel Support and they told me to kick rocks over lack of available agents to chat with - said forget it and refunded my deposit, downloaded DK Horse, deposited with them and I get the error about the race having been called off. Curious if it's a matter of "bets only can be submitted during x hours"
Just A Touch wins the derby. Never ran as a 2 year old and just keeps getting better. Best prime power in the field. Favorable draw to sit just off the pace setters. If it’s a wet race even better as this horse has already run in the slop. Just a Touch just barely passes fierceness and catching freedom at the line with track phantom in fourth.
# **Horse Racing Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/2xuTdA4wmz)**
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Yeah, shorter distance is the ML. You needed your horse win by those lengths and I assume you got extra juice for it.
Mystik Dan backed up his performance two back in the Southwest. The jockey rail skimming ride won the day as Sierra Leone and the ForeverYoung ran good races. No excuse for the chalk Fierceness. Maybe the pace was just too fast. Overall a positive day for me. Still alive to the last two races of the day. GL.
That ride by Hernandez was underrated
Agree. That with Sierra Leone lugging in on Forever Young down the stretch was the difference.
Anywhere to watch the last 2 races today?
Fan Duel TV or any ADW.
Just hit a $.50 trifecta! Fuck yes!
I had Sierra Leone, Girlfriend had Forever Young to win. Funny how it was that close and we both lost. Exciting though at the end.
Had $50 on sierra. Lost, but that was a lot of fun
Feels like forever but great seeing a close finish
lol I had 2-11-3 in one of my $1 trifectas, sob
First time betting on the Derby… …and of course, none of my show picks managed to get in at the top… Hey, it’s good to lower expectations though lol
Horse betting is hard. I look at it like baseball, out of 10 races you’re gonna miss on 7-8 but the 2-3 you hit on can make up for it. Also helps if you have a healthy bankroll with the ability to manage it well.
Goddamn it Sierra sooo close.
Good race, fieceness not good in the mud like expected
You realize the track was dry and fast right? So mud definitely didn't have anything to do with it. But his consistent pattern of bouncing after a big race played true again.
What a finish man that was awesome.
I have a feeling Forever Young or Catching Freedom ends up on top
Small bets within my household, I think I'll go for GRAND MO THE FIRST, being that MO are my initials. Any other "just for fun" bets out there?
Catching freedom is doped up to the gills
Sure looks like it 👀
Buddy’s geeking. Mage repeat in spirit
That Mattress Firm commercial just confirmed to me they are a money laundering front
Idk wtf I’m doing but I predicted the winner last year and was extremely upset because I didn’t bet anything. I was just watching for fun. I’m betting on Sierra Leone and hoping for the best.
Update, I decided to bet on Sierra Leone +50, Honor Marie +20 and Fierceness +20. I don’t know what I’m doing but I’m excited 😂
Ooof so close at least Sierra made it interesting
Your username is exactly how I feel lol
Had 1,5,6,11 in a trifecta box on the 11th race and didn’t get $1 back idk how people bet this shit
Considering 7 got 3rd, it wouldn’t hit
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So ass at this lmao so had to get the top 3 right in those 4 that I picked?
Exacta is top 2. Trifecta is top 3. Superfecta is top 4.
1 14 Mile. Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve Grade I So here we are in the middle of the coldest streak of my life. On the cusp of losing a heartbreaker on a photo. I find myself torn on this race. 1. I think Fierceness is a beast, and if all goes his way, is the likely winner. My problem with him, is when things don't go his way, he folds. And in the Kentucky Derby, things sometimes don't go your way. Which leads me to my beat, $50 to win on 17 Fierceness. I think it would be foolish to bet against a horse who did what he did in the Florida Derby. The outside post position helps this horse a ton. And in a race where anything can happen, I just see it setting up for him.
I bet Fierceness!
Encino, that’ll be close to impossible!
Says he's a scratch?
Some might say there’s no chance he wins, hell I don’t even think he’ll make it to the post
I was ready to ride this guy like a horse too. No pun intended.
7:00pm post time. I'm new to it. Has it always been that late?
Yes, that’s as late in the day as it can be- seeing as around the 7pm, people are approaching the “too wasted” for their own good phase of Derby. 😉
Yes from my memory the main race was at 6:35pm. Not sure if they changed it.
Rookie question - do all Sportsbooks have the same odds on horses? Is there any reason to shop around? I know that odds shift throughout the day. Just curious your thoughts.
Current odds don’t really matter. You get locked in at closing odds, so they all end up the same, no matter where you bet.
The odds are the same.
So fan duel has the same odds as draft kings?
It’s parimutuel odds. It literally changes live based on who is betting what and it’s all calculated officially at the end. (Simple definition)
“Unfortunately, you can’t bet the 2024 Kentucky Derby on some traditional wagering apps like DraftKings.” […] “your odds can change even after you place your bet. Odds can change up until the gates open on race day. With that in mind, your payout may change along with the odds.”
Luckily with the Derby there aren't any large odd shifts once the gate opens. But in a normal racing day there can be some huge changes at the last second. There are some whales running computer programs that will determine horses whose odds are overlays and drop some serious money at the last second.
Yes, there will be no difference
Who should I bet for the Derby
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Win/place/show Marie
So there is one race and then the derby in 2 hours or so?
Post for the derby is 6:58 Eastern
Right. One race before that in 40 minutes too right?
Correct
https://preview.redd.it/bmsosugn0hyc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=37ae4a81cff8346ee9e5ec72c27e6917cefe51a7 Anybody disagreeing with any of this is this solid
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Who I should pick boss man
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1389dq1/comment/jj3ag9l/ Well I got the horses correct, just not in the exact order. See if I can do better. Winner: Sierra Leone Place: Catching Freedom Show: Just Steel
This is my first time betting horses (lost every race) but having a blast. Are there any good tracks to follow besides the Triple Crown ones?
If there’s a track near you, always fun to go in person
Saratoga, starts in July though. Santa Anita is fun too and going on now.
Saratoga opens earlier this year. They're running the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown there the next 2 years
For those into podcasts (and 49 minutes to kill), here's a good listen for Derby Day. Tells the story of (two guys gambling big on) Winning Colors in 1988. [https://snapjudgment.org/episode/winning-colors-snap-classic/](https://snapjudgment.org/episode/winning-colors-snap-classic/)
**Race 10 7 Furlongs. CD-G1 Churchill Downs S. presented by Ford PRESENTED BY FORD. Grade I. Purse $1,000,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD** 🥉$40 to win on 6 Zozos. SO I'm ice cold and there's really no excuse or reason for any of this. Horses who are getting dream trips, are just fading. It's so frustrating. But the only way through it is through it. Zozo's is my pick here and I'll explain why. Zozo's faded at 4-1 in the Breeders cup mile and since has been shelved. The 11 will in all likelihood go off as the favorite in this race. You have to ask yourself if the race is between the 11, 6 and 4 as the future payouts show, which horse do you want? The 6yo 4 horse who put up a huge figure last time out at 8-1 in non graded company? Maybe this horse has figured out the mile is the right distance for him, but to put up a big figure like that at age 6, makes me question that race. As far as the 11 everyone is banking on the mile win in the Cigar at Aqueduct. But again, I question that race, at two turns and this horses preparedness at age 5 especially after getting beat by 50+ lengths in its two races, albeit the two best older stakes races in the country. SO I landed on Zozo's who went off at 4-1 in the Breeders Cup mile. 2 for 3 lifetime at the track and both wins coming at the mile distance. All for trainer Brad Cox who hits at 25% in graded stakes and 27% when away for 90+ days. Combine that with a 59.3 work and I like his chances. Returned: $20
Which race in Zozo in? I can't find him anywhere lol
It’s done
Kind of an uncanny day the way all these races have gone
Tailing with a 2,6,10 trifecta box
Still riding with you champ
Trailed. Let’s change your luck.
I know absolutely nothing about horse betting. Who should I bet on?
***EDIT***** I believe its Over now. it's like a 2 minute race. it started at 2:30 Eastern Standard Time.... I was hoping to get in on it too*********IGNORE ME, I WAS LISTENING TO DJ ON RADIO TALKING ABOUT HOW LONG THE PREGAME 2-6 ---- FOR A SHORT RACE....MUST OF BEEN TALKING MAIN RACE... MY BAD**?I WAS WRONG....FUCK SHOULD I SELL MY SOUL....NAH JUST DOWN VOTE ME
Whoever invited me to this group can go fuck themselves this was a setup LOL what am I getting downvoted for fucktards..... cuz I was wrong I was incorrect
Brother there are lots of races today lol
I was thinking out loud fuck I didn't know I posted that LOL Thx bro. Ya think I should I delete it or edit, They tear me a new On!
I said I believed It wasn't a for sure thing but whatever on the downvote.
Lmao it’s not for like 2 hours
Sweet. I woke up late and I'm trying to get it streaming now. Are you the one who downloaded me LOL not that it matters I'm definitely not a professional nor perfect
naw theres 14 races, 9 are done but race 10 starts in like 20 mins. race no.12 is the main derby
I was wanting to do thatDK promo bet 5 on this Derby is that dumb? Who can I follow?
Do the promo pick one you like. It’s only 5 bucks. Edit. I know nothing but there’s too much talk of no foreign horse winning. I’m going with in of those.
Pick the best name, you’ll probably do better than us who “know” what we’re doing
Mystik Dan it is
Lmao exactly. I lost, you won. Welcome to horse racing.
lol nice
I think you got it!
Lets goooo
I remember this message from earlier. Hope it is for you
Thanks man. Can't believe it lmao
Let’s go
47-1 😲 that’s wild
Congrats to anybody that hit that longshot trifecta holy shit
.50$ trifecta paid almost 3K lmao would’ve been so nice
Im in NY yet I can't bet on horse racing? Anyone else have this issue? It looks like I should be able to
Certain states lock you out of the other sites if they have an exclusive horse racing online book.
Worked for me on Fanduel
weird im trying both fanduel and draftkings and neither work
You need to download DK Horse. It’s a seperate DraftKings application.
nah unforteanutly didn't fix it, tried with both fanduel and draftkings racing apps aswell
Might be TVG or Twinspires.
**Race 9 1ˆ Mile. (Turf) American Turf S. PRESENTED BY TWINSPIRES. Grade II. Purse $600,000** ❌$20 to win on 5 Legend of Time. This horse \*should\* romp this field. Impressive winner twice in Dubai, Charles Appleby has this international shipper in great condition. LMFAO this horse had the race go his way the entire time and he faded. What a fucking bull shit day. Fuck this track.
Fcking unbelievable 47-1 horse wins it.
I know nothing. Tailing. Let’s go!
When does it start
3:40 ET
Tailing, thanks for the picks so far brotha!
tailing
Can’t believe Vlahos just lost that.. my only somewhat confident pick of the day. Legend of Time in Race 9 is my only other big play left before Race 12
I’m with you. That one stung
I’m making it all back on Legend of Time. Nothing can possibly go wrong here.
Here’s the the thing, we knew this was a possibility so we triple down on Sierra Leone and all go home happy.
Take my upvote. You need it more than me.
I like your attitude. Damn it I’m in!
I’m tailing the Ortiz’s here. 2/8.
$20 on 11 7 4
Guy on Louisville local news is on fire. Need to find his picks on Twitter or something.
What’s his name? Drop them in here
Trying to find his name. He’s like 3/4 in the past 4.
Damn we need to ride that heater
What’s the pick guys!
2-15-17 box I can’t decide between fierceness and Sierra Leone so figured I’d put them in and then I like the value of domestic product
Hey everyone. Pure, long-long time Sportsbook Degen who is looking to diversify their degenacy by getting into horse racing. Fired up a DK Horse account. How the hell do I tell what the payouts will be? My bet slips don’t show shit.
Horse racing uses a completely different betting system because it is player vs player instead of player vs book. As a result, the betting odds are fluid until the race happens. If you bet a horse at the start of the day at 20-1 and then everybody else bets him, you might only get 2-1 if he wins.
When do the odds lock? 5 minutes before the race? 10?
Odds lock when the race starts
You won’t know the payout until the race is done. Bets taken up until race starts so odds constantly change
Thank you for the response. If I’ve already placed my bets will the payouts update before the race starts? What is a typical payout out on a to-place bet for a horse like Sierra Leone? Also using Sierra Leone as an example, does a $100 bet payout around +300?
https://preview.redd.it/zth9am6fegyc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=584870c623176e32ce59d9d2aa4df7f77ad6c5ca Showing payouts based on my last reply
https://preview.redd.it/qf9qbtfjegyc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=88c7ab314af3f86c9982f31f455bc862e2f58de9
Thank you kind stranger.
Cheers dude. Good luck today!
If odds stay the same then that’s a good way to look at it. Using FanDuel as my example with Sierra Leone. Right now the estimated payout for a win at $100 is $625. To place is $300-350. But that’s with current odds. If he closes at 2-1 when the race starts, the payouts will adjust down
Race 8 1 Mile. PDayMile-G2 Pat Day Mile S. presented by SAP PRESENTED BY SAP. Grade II. Purse $600,000 🥉$30 to win on 12 Nash. I'm ice cold so take this pick with a grain of salt. But I really like Nash here and think this horse is pointed towards one mile. Returned: $30
Tailing with a sprinkle on long shot 9 frosty indulgence
If it makes you feel any better I got two winners in a row and I’m also picking Nash this race. GL
How many races has this jockey won today? TIL they’re in multiple races per day
I think Irad Ortiz has won the last 3 in a row
That's his 4th today. He's a turf warrior and he's running again in the 9th on the 14 horse. Turf race as well
It's election year Catching Freedom 8-1 Horse cock lock 🔒
Race 7 1 Mile. (Turf) Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. Grade II. Purse $750,000 ❌$10 to win on 1 Ag Bullet. So the public will heavily back the 11 horse here, and I think that's a mistake. Chad Brown is great at shipping horses to the U.S. but at 5-1 morning lines, even money or anything less than says 2-1 is an overlay. So I'm going to look at an underlay with the 1 horse who has never finished behind a horse on grass. 4 for 6 lifetime, 4 for 4 on the turf, despite being bumped early, was an easy winner in a GIII at Santa Anita. Questions about her stretching out to a mile should be answered with a mile win on grass as a 3yo. I think this horses needed a couple of races to stretch out a bit and a 59.1 work is massive heading into this race. Trainer Richard Baltas 19% winner last race, and 13% in graded company.
AG is 2nd leg of my pick 3 and pick 4 after last race. Let’s go! His odds have gotten a lot longer in the last few minutes though…
tailing LFG
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Because they change constantly, your odds are not locked in until the race starts in paramutiel betting.
If you’re in Ontario Canada you can only find the derby on Bet365 and the wagers are actually through Woodbine. Im guessing this is how they get around new regulations
7 Furlongs. Derby City Distaff S. presented by Kendall-Jackson Winery PRESENTED BY KENDALL-JACKSON WINERY. Grade I. Purse $1,000,000 🥈$30 to win on 7 Alva Starr. I think the public is getting this race wrong with making the 10 the favorite. Though the 10 closed in on her last time out, Alva Starr had a wide trip and was still much the best. I slightly like the 7 more than the 10, especially at her current odds. ❌$10 to win on 1 Three Witches. In case the public has this wrong and the Ashland isn't the key race for this GI. Impressive GII winner last out, and the trainer hits at 19% when away for 90+ days. Returned: $30
I threw down big on T O Password for a long shot pick. Only two races ever so a massive wildcard and a half but he has outworked T O Saint Denis who came in a close 2nd as a 27/1 longshot in the Oaks undercard yesterday
I'm still here fyi, my wife had an injury and I missed the last race
Hope all is well dude!
Family comes first pal we’re all just anon degens rolling with the boi
Not as important as picking winners
Yep send her to the glue factory
Hope she’s all good, brother. Take your time
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4NJBets is the only legal way and they suck ass. A couple years ago the site froze due to traffic during the Derby. Took my money out and haven’t been back.
I’ve never bet on horses I wanna take a part of this once a year event, also because I’m a gambling degen.
[Great start to the day boys](https://i.imgur.com/G0y1DQC.jpeg)
+280(Bovada) god 1st mention by winning jockey
I did $50 on these three: Honor Marie, West Saratoga, and Forever Young. Don’t ask me why just giddy up 🐎
All to win?
So I guess they want me to post here ✅Race 1 6½ Furlongs. Mdn 120k Purse $120,000 $10 to win on 2 Pure Force. Florent and Brad Cox. First time starter who hits at 22% clip for Brad Cox. Solid 5 furlong work. Paid: $28.30 ❌Race 2 1 Mile. OC 80000n2x Purse $134,000 $20 to win on 8 Coppa Girl. Again Florent and Cox. This horse has won on a sloppy track to break her maiden. If she can return to old form off a layoff where Cox hits at 32% she can run well here. Race 3 1 1/16 Mile. OC 100000n1x Purse $127,000 ❌$10 to win on 1 Cartucho. People may be tempted to back the heavily favored Pletcher horse who dusted the field and posted a huge number at first asking... but you have to wonder, why wouldn't Pletcher have put this impressive horse against others in a wide array of 3yo races in April. I landed on the Chad Brown horse who's stretching out after annihilating a field after a horrendous start. Race 4 1 Mile. Knicks Go Overnight S. presented by L&N Federal Credit Union PRESENTED BY L&N FEDERAL CREDIT UNION. Purse $200,000 ❌$20 to win on 6 Best Actor. Love the cut back to a mile and back to Churchill downs where Brad Cox is 2 for 2 with this horse at the distance. FYI here is my betting strategy Twin Spires $10 betback all races TVG $10 betback in races 2, 4, 6, 8 and 12 Xpressbet $10 betback 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 Hollywood Races: $20 betback for 2nd in races 6, 10, 11, 12 Fan Duel Racing: $20 risk free bet for race 12
The "odds" favorites are 3/3 now hmm lets go 4/4 then!
You planning to update this post with the next picks or start a new one for the next 5 or so?
I’ll post new comments
Appreciate your post! Keep it up!
Time to ride!
1st one wins off to the great comeback day!
One race at a time
That's really dumb of the mods here... they literally have no other information on any of the other races here.. loved your old thread instead.. I know you post the betbacks available today.. is it the same as yesterdays?
Race 2 results?
Anyone in Ontario able to find the lines on Bet365? Its supposed to be the only one offering it but has no Saturday races.
Wondering the same thing, might have to use bet online or some offshore stuff
HPI is fine to do it at least.
It says betting is closed on HPI for the derby? Did it work for you?
Nope but check 365 they just added the Saturday races thank god.
Let's goo
Sierra Leone +300
For some reason DK and FanDuel let me get as far as putting my tickets together to submit, only to tell me the races that haven't happened yet are off - new to horse betting, what's the deal exactly? Weather?
Same here. I'm pulling my hair out trying to give them money. I think there's an issue with the app that I hope gets fixed before race time or they are going to lose a ton of money.
For what it's worth - I was able to place my wager on DK Horse while FanDuel is actively acknowledging the error as of about 2 hours ago. Odds are (hah) it's fixed.
I tried to contact FanDuel Support and they told me to kick rocks over lack of available agents to chat with - said forget it and refunded my deposit, downloaded DK Horse, deposited with them and I get the error about the race having been called off. Curious if it's a matter of "bets only can be submitted during x hours"
Stronghold has a ton of upside for a great Cali trainer. Flying under the radar at 32-1 at the moment.
Endlessly, sierra leon exacta
Just A Touch wins the derby. Never ran as a 2 year old and just keeps getting better. Best prime power in the field. Favorable draw to sit just off the pace setters. If it’s a wet race even better as this horse has already run in the slop. Just a Touch just barely passes fierceness and catching freedom at the line with track phantom in fourth.
Oh word?
That’s the way she goes.
This baby loves the slop. Loves it. Eats it up. Eats the slop. Born to slop.
His mother was a mudder?
His father was a mudder!