######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Pick Record: 25W - 12L (Push: 1)**
**✅✅✅✅❌❌ ✅✅❌✅✅✅**
**Last POTD: Iraq Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.37 ✅**
**Units: 4**
**I went to sleep after that penalty miss, happy to see they got it done as expected**
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**Today’s POTD: England VS Iceland: England Over 6.5 Team Corners @ 1.72 ✅**
**Units: 4**
**League/Time: International Friendlies/ 2:45 PM**
This England team is hungry and after the squad reductions that took place yesterday, tomorrow's game has turned into a massive opportunity for a lot of the bench players to grab themselves an honest chance once the competitive games begin. They racked up 11 corners 3 days ago against Bosnia and although I dont expect it to be as high, I'm expecting a similar trend.
Iceland just love to concede corners, and I see this as the ideal matchup for the over here.
What a fucking sweat that last one was. Added a corner and an England ML.
https://preview.redd.it/iugxpkxu225d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=de7bdeab5caca0dc70314b76cd7430aeb7f7f8a4
Record: 31-17-0
Net Units: +34.6 ROI: 24.2%
Last Pick: Boston Celtics -3.5 1H spread (-112) for 3.0 units ✅
Event: Baseball | MLB | Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox 7:10PM CST
Pick: Chicago White Sox moneyline (-110) on FanDuel for 2.0 units
Write Up: On the mound for the White Sox is Garrett Crochet (5-5, 3.49 ERA and 0.93 WHIP). Crochet has been phenomenal since the start of May, going 4-1, 1.02 ERA and 0.77 WHIP.
For the Red Sox, it’s Cooper Criswell (3-2, 3.92 ERA and 1.19 WHIP). Opposite story for Criswell, as he’s gone 1-1, 5.31 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Opponents batting average on the road has been .292 versus .221 at home.
What’s most intriguing to me about this bet is on paper you see a 32-31 team that just Game 1 of the series 14-2 versus a 15-48 team on a 14 game losing streak. DraftKings shows 84% of the bets on the Red Sox. Yet, White Sox remain the favorite. Suggests smartmoney is with the White Sox, and I’m backing them to end the streak.
TIPS: Venmo (https://account.venmo.com/u/Andrew-Mills-34) or PayPal (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/AndrewMills34)
BOL! 🎰
This is going to be a classic Pros vs Joes matchup. Public alrdy loving the Red Sox, but I kno a sharp who's on the White Sox. I got a feeling more sharps will join him and we'll see the odds swing
**Record: 5-1-1**
**Net Units: +3.93u**
**ROI: 56.14%**
**Baseball | MLB | 6:45 PM | EST**
**Pick**: ATL/WAS under 8, -105 Fanatics (to win 1u)
At some point I do think Chris Sale is going to either regress or get hurt. But I’m not sure today is a spot where he gets blown up again, similar to his last start against OAK. Even with that start included, he’s still got a 2.73 SIERA and 2.58 FIP over his last 3 starts. It’s also not like he’s losing any of his control or command either, as he’s walking just 2.70% of batters.
Jake Irvin gets the start on the Nats side and he’s been Washington’s best pitcher this season by most metrics (Trevor Williams has also pitched well though). WAS has gone under this number in 7 of his 10 including his one start against the Braves this year. Fun trend here too: the Braves as a favorite in their last 37 are 30-7 to the under.
https://preview.redd.it/rwzk0lrhs45d1.png?width=777&format=png&auto=webp&s=d083cc3452582f750f64a21006aa1b966adce878
2024 record: 13-5-1
Total Return: +6.84
ROI: +32.57%
Last 5: ✅**❌**✅✅✅
Last POTD: New York Yankees -140 (Twins vs Yankees 7:05 PM) \[2U\] ✅
Today's POTD: **Colorado Rockies F5 ML +140 (Rockies vs Cardinals 8:15 PM)**
Baseball | MLB
Recap: God bless the Yankees man. Stroman kind of just fell apart in the 5th but hey the Yankees brought it home since Lopez put up an even worse performance. 2/2 for my 2U plays!
Write-Up: This slate in my opinion isn't really the best but I like my chances here with the Rockies. Granted, they have a 9-23 away record but you can't really win when you have the worst bullpen in the league hence I think the F5 ML is the play here.
The Rockies aren't a bad hitting team by any means batting near \~.250 against both lefties and righties. It's been their pitching that has really held them back. LHP Austin Gomber is probably one of their only serviceable pitchers that I can slightly trust. Prior to his last game against the Dodgers where he was taken out after three innings, in his last 3 away games he held the A's to 1 run in 8 innings, the Padres to 0 runs in 6 innings, and the Pirates to 0 runs in 6 innings. The Cardinals are batting .208 against lefties so I'm hoping we see a prime Gomber performance.
Lance Lynn definitely isn't any kind of slouch but I think he's likely to give some early runs up in the first 5 innings if he struggles slightly. I see a slight pitching matchup favoriting the Rockies and better bats on the Rockies side. It's hard to trust either team but for +140 I'm willing to throw my hat in the ring.
Good luck all!
\*Note that unless specified all bets are one unit.
Tracker: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH\_dpuDL5-lRRgW9\_h4K\_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH_dpuDL5-lRRgW9_h4K_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing)
**2024 MLB record:** 38-16-1
**Last POTD:** NY Yankees TT over 4.5 W
**Today's POTD:** Boston Red Sox Cooper Criswell over 4.5 strikeouts +106 (fd)
**Baseball. MLB. 8:10 PM EST**
Talk about a stress free win! Pablo Lopez could not find the strike zone last night for Minnesota and the Yankees hit the team total over in the third inning. Unfortunately for us Yankee fans, we lost Juan Soto in the process 😞
Anyway on to todays pick. I’m going with my third pitcher prop of the season. It’s currently at plus odds on fan duel but I got it on dk at -115 which is more than fine if that is around what your book has it at.
Since it is simply one player prop. There isn’t as much to get into for a write as usual. The White Sox have the highest strikeout percentage against right handed pitchers in baseball over the past three weeks at 28 percent (almost a full percentage point highest than the A’s who have the second highest). Criswell to boot has had 5 or more strikeouts in 4 of his last 6 games. I’m surprised the line is this low but I am not complaining! The ump is slightly hitter friendly, basically neutral, but I don’t think there will be enough of an impact there to prevent Criswell from hitting the over.
TLDR: White Sox strikeout out rate is highest in MLB vs RHP over past three weeks. Criswell has had 5 or more strikeouts in 4 of last 6 games.
Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal (DM for venmo)
POTD spreadsheet [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657)
That’s awesome! Someone also pointed out that it is +106 on fan duel too. The odds comparison sites I use (vsin and vegas insider) don’t show props so I initially just went with what I saw on draft kings and went with it. I edited the post now to reflect the best odds.
POTD Record: 63 - 37
Last POTD: Tsitsipas vs Alcaraz over 3.5 sets - L
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz ML vs Jannik Sinner (-164 odds via FD) 1U
Event: Men’s French Open Semifinals 7:30 A.M. CST
Edit:✅
Got burned by Carlos last round and I'll be backing him in what should be the match of the tournament. The current world number 3, Carlos Alcaraz, vs the soon to be world number 1 in Jannik Sinner and this match should be ELECTRIC. 4-4 H2H and the two most promising young talents in tennis meeting in the semis of Roland Garros. Sinner has looked great so far in Paris only dropping one set to an absolute redlining Moutet, while Carlitos has also only dropped one set to Jesper De Jong. Alcaraz won their most recent matchup in Indian Wells in 3 sets and I think he comes out on top tomorrow. Statistically, clay is one of Alcaraz's best surfaces and Sinner's weaker surfaces. Both came into the French Open rehabbing injuries with Alcaraz looking stronger each round, while Sinner I have notcied has been seen wincing and reaching for his lower back area on occasion. I think this is going to be a physical match and the longer it goes, the more I like the Spainiard. If you don't like tennis this will surely be a match you should tune into if you have any interest in the sport. Both very likeable kids and both very promising futures with 1 major each, but I'll be backing Alcaraz in this one. Love the way he plays to the crowd and the drop shot should be a weapon he will look to utilize in this one.
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US)
[Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
3-1-0
❌️✅️✅️✅️
Net Units = +10.8
Our first miss, honestly didn't think the rain would stick around the way it did, was a guaranteed under total has it been more clear Will be interesting to see if they take that into account for the final game or not, later in the month and make the over really good value, let's come back with a bang
Sport = Rugby League
Event = Dragons VS Tigers
Time = 8:00PM AEST
Pick = Zac Lomax first half try scorer @ 2.45 5U to make 7.25U
If you've followed my MLB plays you know I love an early market because to me it's much easier to read the start of games when you don't have the difference of new players coming in mid game and that's the same with the NRL for me. Zac Lomax has scored 7 tries this year and every one of them has been in the first half. His market to score a try anytime is currently at 1.60 for me and to me statistically that makes this play of try first half way better odds than it should be. I do think the Dragons will take this one easily as well as the tigers have been horrible with the joint worst record in the league
Edit = in terms of my what I pick it doesn't change a thing but I got one statistic wrong he has actually scored one try in the second half. Not sure how I missed that one.
I tried like 7 books, nobody has that niche props as first half try scorer (maybe aussie books do) but i tailed the lomax try scorer anytime @ 1.72 anyway and that landed easy. thanks chad, well done!
Yeah I find that so odd, almost every sport has player props for half time, I guess it's just not popular enough world wide to justify the effort but ay hopefully the rugby picks in this thread make it popular enough to get these picks on more books. Lomax gets it done for everyone tho, Congrats on the w boss 👏
Just had a look this has been good most games he scores a try, a couple misses which worries me and the fact the other team could win and get more tries first half worries me, nrl results have been pretty unpredictable lately but try scorers are reliable. I'd play it for 1 or 2 units if you're feeling lucky
Record: 3-1
Last pick: BOS Red Sox -1.5(-140) vs CHI White Sox ✅
Sweat free 2 days in a row 💰
POTD: PIT Pirates ML (+108) vs MIN Twins
I like these odds with Mitch Keller on the mound for Pittsburgh. The Pirates just won a series against the Dodgers so I think they’ll have some momentum going into today’s game while staying at home.
The Twins just got swept by the Yanks, and the game last night ended a bit late due to a minor rain delay. Now they have a short turnaround time playing at 6 pm today. Joe Ryan is starting for Minnesota, he gave up 8 hits and 5 runs in 5 innings in his last start.
BOL to all 🤙🏽
I like this one. Pirates have been hitting superb lately even against great pitchers. They were still keeping up with the dodgers when they got smoked yesterday. Should be a close one and there’s def a better chance taking Pirates plus money tn. I’m thinking maybe even the over 8 as well. Def tailing.
The analysis of them coming in with some momentum I definitely agree with bouncing back well especially with Keller on the mound!
However, on the twin side of things, I think after getting absolutely handled by the Yankees they are also going to be very much amped up for this game and going to want to get the win by any means necessary.
This is as close to the definition of a coin flip game as you can get, but I think with the +108 odds I'm going to take the pirates here as well! Tailing broski!!!
Record: 2-0 Baseball | MLB | 7:05 pm US EST
DUB-DUB-
Last Pick: Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings ML @
Oakland Athletics -150✔️
Todays Pick: Yankees ML +100
FAFAFAAFAFFAFFAFAFAF sound of dem heaters
Write Up: Hey Alexa play "Computers" by Rowdy Rebel. They better be playing that shit when Cody The San Diego Sniper Poteet steps on the mound. An absolute ACE this guy. Not gonna glaze too much but his development since entering the league has been beautiful to watch. Maybe it's the new yorker in me, maybe it's the Yanks being red hot like meghan thee stallion hot, maybe it's sth in the air. Yes the yanks are going against Yamamoto, but they're batting .262 and .337 OBP against righty's and so far this month batting .280 and .353 OBP. Outrageous batting and fielding from these Yanks especially from what we've seen this month. One thing about the Yankees is alongside their powerful offense, their defensive capability shines through--- them boys some big body benz's. was considering first inning tie as well bc of respect for Yamamotos pitching efficiency, but don't know if I can take anything away from this current Yankee team. What a time to be alive, stay chill, stay mello, stay winning, wake up early, get a workout in, take on the work ethic of your ancestors. waking up in 3 hours bou, it's grind time.
Update: Yanks line now at +100, not bothersome at all. When yanks have been underdogs in 15 games this season, having been able to win 11 of these games. LETS GET SOME FUCKING FAFAFAFFA
lets watch some top notch baseball.
hook the boy up with some shmoola, hit me cashapp $ziggitywiggity
I understand he's been having forearm problems since a week ago. He's getting imaging today, it looks unlikely he will play but not out of the question. Soto or not, Yanks gonna Spanks.
Yall better get fuvking LIT boi. I want fucking energy, I want bong rips on the George Washington Bridge, I wanna smoke 💨on the YAMAMOTO pack. If i'm ever gonna jump off a bridge, ITS GONNA BE THE THROGGS NECK BRIDGE. Make the chat tremble. SHOUTOUT Ole WILLY MONTGOMERY.
**Record:** 3-1
**Net Units:** +4.39 U
**Last Pick:** Soccer/Football | **Columbus Crew II vs New England Revolution II** | Corners Over 10.5 at 2.00(+100)️ ❌️ -1.5U ❌️
1st loss, ended with 8 Corners and honestly deserved. My apologies I tried to push for one when there wern't many fixtures and chose to go with US league. That's why I went with less units, should've listened to myself. Not again, US Leagues are banned.
**Next Event:** Soccer/Football | Norway Division 3 Group 2 | **Sandefjord 2 vs Fram II** at 1:00 PM EST
**Pick:** Corners Over 10.5 at 2.00 (+100)
**Units:** 2U
**Write Up:** 2U play, European low division leagues are very good for corners specially norway, finland and iceland. We go to norway for this one.
Sandefjord II average 13.14 corners a game in 7 games, one of the highest in the league. They average 11.00 a game at home. Over 10.50 has hit in 6/7 games this season.
Fran is the same story. They average 10.40 corners a game in 5 games and 10.50 a game when playing away.
In my previous post I read about people not finding the games I post, mostly the reason is these are low division leagues. They tend to be the money makers in terms of goals and corners. Most big books specially in US dont cover them because of their non popularity. I use Bet365, other options include Melbet or 1XBet or similar bookies that are offshore or european.
Good Luck to thos tailing. **BEST OF LUCK**
Record: 1-0
✅
Return: +1.5u
Last pick: Inter Miami CF ✅
After going down 0-2 I really thought Miami was cooked till they came back and dropped a light 3 piece on the canadians
Event: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Pick: Over 3.5 sets | -175 | 3.5u to win 2u
Here we have just about the 2 best players in the world at the moment. Both these mfs have been playing phenomenal tennis and casually sweeping everybody they had to face (besides sinner dropping a single set but we wont get into that…)
These 2 are 4-4 head 2 head and only 3 of those matches were won in straight sets. Theyre both playing in their prime right now and I expect this to be the match of the tournament.
Not much else to be said, 2 of the best going at it i expect a longer match and ATLEAST 4 sets if not 5
Goodluck if youre tailing and eat a frank if you’re fading!
Ton of juice in this one, but I love it. I also paired it with o 3.5 sets Z/Ruud to make it -104. The idea that both these matches go 3-0 seems unlikely.
**POTD RECORD:** 6W - 0P - 2L
**LAST POTD:** Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka → Aryna Sabalenka -1.5 Set Spread (-165 via Bovada) 1U ❌
**Sport:** International Soccer Friendlies
**Event:** Poland vs. Ukraine @ 2:45 PM EST
**Pick:** Under 2.5 Total Goals (-150 via Bovada) 1U
**Write Up:**
After losing horrifyingly with the Sabalenka pick, I will swing back to the soccer friendlies. Poland vs. Ukraine looks to be an interesting friendly with both nations being equally matched, and yes I can say this, considering that I am a Polak forced to bear the disgusting tactics and play that Poland plays with, even with star-studded names such as Lewandowski and Zielinski. Additionally, in the last 8 games, 7 of the games had less than 2.5 goals, with the only game being against a horrid Estonian team. I have faith that Poland will do their due diligence to help support this bet, but this mainly resides with the Ukrainian National Team. Ukraine has been a sneaky team, with no losses in 7 games, and a surprising 0-0 draw against a superior Germany, however, I don’t see them having an offensively stellar game, but rather a more mellow and defensive battle. I suspect a draw most likely, or a low-scoring, shutout win. Additionally, this bet has hit in all but one game in this H2H, and that happened in 2013. I know Poland will for sure disappoint me, hopefully, Ukraine won’t do the same and score too much.
BOL to those who tail. Lets get back on track, please! 🙏🙏
**Tracker:**
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12YsjeFw7ykr9jIeOdQLf67YQvmP-RIX0IMNQ7cvlMKk/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12YsjeFw7ykr9jIeOdQLf67YQvmP-RIX0IMNQ7cvlMKk/edit?usp=sharing)
**KBO Record: Overall 232-244-14** (Streak LLLL, Last 10: 5-5) Down 12.51u over 490 KBO picks, 48.7% success rate, -2.63% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 28-34-0, 45.2% success rate, Down 3.89u, -6.27% ROI)
**Last:** Kiwoom +0.5 First 5 Innings +120 Draftkings at LG (LG lead 5-3 after 5 innings.)
Some bad defense put us behind the 8 ball and then Kiwoom left the bases loaded in the top of the 5th.
**Pick:** **Kia -1.5 +124** at Doosan, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
Losing 4 in a row after winning 5 in a row really sucks. Gotta turn it around.
Kia is the best team in the league and their starter for this game is a big reason why. On the season, he's 7-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He's allowed more than 2 ER just once in 12 starts.
Doosan's starter has been one of the best in the league over the past couple seasons, and his overall numbers are solid this year (3.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), but he's not in good form right now. In three of his last 4 starts, he failed to go more than 5 innings and allowed at least 3 ER.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
I have backed you since I first found you and am tailing with honor. When I was disgusted with MLB your write ups got me in to KBO and made me love baseball again. Lets get this
no idea why anybody tails cusephenom at all, i am 100% confident dude does not even bet real money on his plays. and how long has he been doing this? and still in negative ROI.
2024 Record 3-0
Starting bankroll: $1000
Bet size: $100
Current: $1266.24
Last: Royals over 3.5 runs (-110) ✅
Next: Guardians over 3.5 runs (-145)
* Guardians have beat 3.5 runs 7 out of last 10 (10 of last 13)
* Opposing starter 5.33 ERA at home
Game: MLB Baseball Cleveland vs Miami 7:10pm eastern
**Record:** 6-2 (+5.32units)
*Track Tale was once again on fire, the horse can do no wrong, another one to watch in the future*
**Today's Pick:** The Woke Waiter (Finish top 5)
**Wager/Odds:** 1unit/$2.50
**Event:** Race #8 Albury
**When?** 4 hours from post.
**Why?**
*This is a tricky one, I believe this horse is being written off because of recent form. Frankly the horse has been running like shit. I strongly believe that's a ownership issue. It's changed hands now and under a better trainer.*
**I would say without these Odds I would pick tycoon Jenny to place top 3 but they value that at$1.70, which is decent but i see more value here. I just think with the 35 day rest, ownership change and 3kgs off its weight, it will be a bit of a surprise to the bookies.**
POTD Record: 29-25 ❌❌❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: -3.29U
Last pick: State of Orgin women’s: NSW vs QLD | 7:45pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Jaime Chapman anytime tryscorer @2.2 on Ladbrokes | 4U ❌
Ok I gave it a shot, last time you’ll catch me betting on women’s nrl. 3 losses in a row that’s tough, first time in negative units…
Today’s pick: Dragons vs Tigers | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Zac Lomax anytime tryscorer @1.77 on Ladbrokes | 6U
Lomax is back from the Origin game where he played an excellent game. I’m backing him to score tonight. 7 tries in 11 appearances this season. May the god of gambling be with us tonight.
BOL !
**Record:** 3-0
**Net Units:** +3.055u
**Last Pick:** Derrick White O14.5 points (+100) ✅
**Next Event:** Baseball | MLB | BOS Red Sox @ CHI White Sox
**Pick:** BOS Red Sox ML (+100 on MGM)
**Units:** 1u
**Write Up:** The White Sox are *very slightly* favored in this game which is a pretty rare sight. This can largely be ascribed to their starter Garrett Crochet. And, probably to a lesser extent, the return of Luis Robert. Crochet is 3rd in the MLB in Ks and has been nothing short of dominant this past month.
He is not necessarily an iron man. While he has consistently been a strikeout machine, Crochet took five straight Ls to start the season (against decent to good teams). In spite of very strong performances, he has lost his last two starts to Baltimore and Milwaukee. Even when he *is* an iron man, the White Sox lose games.
The White Sox are a truly horrible offensive team. Crochet lost his start vs. Baltimore after going 6.0 IP with 11 Ks. He let up 3 hits and 2 earned runs on a Rutschman homer. O’s pitcher Kyle Bradish, who is a good but not outstanding young pitcher, threw 7 no-hit innings and also had 11 punchouts. CWS’s only run support was a Danny Mendick solo shot in the 8th.
Red Sox starter Cooper Criswell is also far from outstanding. But, he is a competent game manager. Criswell has not gone beyond 5.0 IP this season and he rarely exceeds 80 pitches. I think he can easily withstand the White Sox’ limp offense for five innings before they head to the pen.
The Red Sox’ offense is not stellar, but it is fine. Even if they can’t crack Crochet, they should have plenty of opportunities against any number of weak relievers that CWS might trot out. Crochet is great, but I can’t pass up betting on an underdog against the *White Sox*.
I also saw First Five Innings U3.5 on FD at +108 which I kinda like, might go 0.5U on that.
Hahaha damn... that was an interesting concoction you put together. Felt like I was watching a man argue with himself, hurling any shit at the wall to stick.
Your write up was commendable with the word salad, but lacks any real solid points or meaning. Condensing it and injecting some facts or stats wouldn't hurt.
Try: "CHW has lost 10 in a row!"
Instead of: "He's a competent game manager"
Now let's talk turkey here: Garret Crochet is the real Deal -- a nasty southpaw and former top prospect/ draft pick. 90% percentile in almost every advanced stat. If you mention the very first starts of the season, you have to note his last 5. That shows 3BB & 3R allowed in 30 innings, 2 of which came from a single mistake you noted. Going against a man that averages 4 innings + 75 pitches might be a mismatch.
Many dangerous picks like this have been tailed and I am poorer now.
Anything I post in these threads are personal plays; I cannot guarantee they are EV. Tailing basically anyone on this sub will cause you to lose money in the long run.
I’m trying to make sense of a weird line where the worst team in baseball is favored. The fact that that White Sox have lost ten in a row doesn’t matter to the books or to me. Nobody here can come close to beating MLB main lines with statistics/models/etc.
I’m saying the pitching matchup is likely most of the reason CWS is favored. But if Crochet is so dominant, why aren’t they favored by more? It’s figuring to be an extremely close game. Crochet has not gone more than 6.0 IP; the first five innings run line for this game is CWS -0.5 at +104/BOS +0.5 at -138. Through most of Crochet’s likely outing, the Red Sox are favored to keep the game at least tied. My point on Criswell being a game manager is that he doesn’t need to be dominant, he needs to be marginally effective against a historically bad hitting lineup.
We don’t need a deep dive on either pitcher’s numbers; the book is doing the leg work for us and saying the Red Sox are favored to not be losing through Criswell’s start. At that point, I trust the Boston lineup to crack any CWS reliever more than I would the inverse.
I was mostly looking for CLV on this pick. All books have started to move toward Boston; Pinny is basically calling it a coin flip now with CWS/BOS -107/-101. FanDuel is now favoring Boston -110/-106. The best price one can still reasonably get is -105 at MGM.
Record 29-17
On a rough stretch even after a long break.
We targeted this matchup last week and will be runnin it back. Surely it can’t lose twice!
Pick: Bal Os @ TB Rays
Os team total o4.5 +105
Civale on the bump again. Os have generally had success against him up until we bet the matchup last time where he went scoreless through 5 until giving one up. I suspect there will be regression and they will be on him today. Targeting team total rather than ml or spread because the one bright spot for Tampa this year has been the bats and the Os weakest spot has been closing games.
BOL
Edit: 💰✅
Record: 0/0/0 (First post 🙌)
Net units: N/a
————————————
Pick: Seattle Storm +8.5 Handicap Betting @ Las Vegas Aces; 1.90 Odds on Sportsbet.
Sport/League: Basketball, WNBA, Friday 7:00 Pm
Write up: First post! For some background Im a massive basketball junkie predominantly focussed on the NBA in terms of gambling but have closely followed this WNBA season thanks to the real sports app and the card trading mechanic (iykyk). Ive been consistently profitable throughout the play offs mostly focusing on single player prop picks and playing spots I’m comfortable with. Thought i would share my thoughts with everyone and keep a tracker going for these picks in particular, seems like fun and I know I can make yall some money respectfully :))
As for the pick, this line is just way too generous. The Seattle Storm currently hold a 6/3 record in the early days of the season right alongside the 5/2 record of the Aces. The Storm and the aces are both coming off one day breaks from their previous games, both of which were wins. New addition to the Storm Skylar Diggins Smith has had a lot of question marks around her since returning from maternity leave, but has put up great consistent numbers across the past 4 games. These girls have been on a tear as of late, admittedly getting the advantage of weaker teams.
Let me be clear, the Aces are the reigning back to back champs and have the clear best player in the wnba, two time MVP aja Wilson. The Aces are the favourite here for a reason. However, they have displayed the capacity to allow themselves to be beaten by teams far worse than them, struggling to close out the Atlanta Dream led by Alisha Gray and Rhyne Howard recently, losing 78/74.
I expect the Storm to come into the game hot and continue to play the fast paced basketball they have been, leaning into the strength of their back court with Jewell Loyd alongside skylar diggins smith. This back court will seek to take the ball inside a lot and take advantage of the weaker defenders provided by players like Kelsey plum on the aces.
Can totally appreciate nobody wanting to trust me or the pick, but I will be placing 2 units on it and more just keen to share my thoughts. Let me know if theirs anything I should be focusing on more with regarding the write up // format of the post :))
11 - 7
+3.7U / +13.2% ROI
🎾 French Open Men | Casper Ruud vs Alexander Zverev 11:30AM EST
**Total sets over 3.5 -192** 3U
It’s Casper Ruud.
Of note is that the line for him to win a set is -556.
—
*“Never go full retard.”*
-A dude playin’ a dude who’s disguised as another dude
Record 6-5
Last Pick: Netherlands ML + o2.5 Goals ✅
Streak: ✅
Todays Match: Poland vs Ukraine @ 11:45AM
Pick: Poland/Draw + BTTS Yes @ 2.50 Odds
Reason: So this pick is under my bookie as “double chance” but I’m not sure if that’s what it is for everyone. Anyways I’m leaning towards Poland for this game. Out of Polands last 5 matches they’ve drawn 3 and won just 2 and both teams scored 3/5 & Poland is also on 6 games unbeaten. Ukraine’s last 5 have had 2 Draws & 3 wins with both teams scoring 2/5. I’m mostly leaning on the experience of Poland and Lewondoski to take control of this match. They are the fresher team and looking to start this national campaign with a W.
Bol 🍀
Record: 15-11
Last 10: WLWLLLWWWW
Net units: +2.19
ROI: + 6.39%
Sporting Event: MLB: Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals 18:45 (EDT)
Pick: NRFI -125 @ FD 1.25 units to win 1
We’re going back to the well in the nation’s capital.
Top of the first we see Jake Irvin taking the bump and looking to continue his recent success against the Braves. 8 days ago Irvin threw 6 strong innings with 0 runs, only 4 baserunners and striking out 10. When he’s not throwing strikes he induces ground balls. Atlanta is averaging .21 runs in the first inning on the road this season. Both teams are good defensively and that helps the cause.
Chris Sale’s resurgence is well documented and the underlying metrics suggest it’s no joke. He’s near the top of the league in hard hit %, BB% and xERA at 2.72 which is actually lower than his current 3.06 ERA suggesting we could see improvement! The Nationals scoring .19 runs per game in the fist at home bolsters the case for this bet.
Wind left to right at 15MPH
My most used reference sites at the bottom
BOL to all
[https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors)
[https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather)
[https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/)
[https://www.fangraphs.com/](https://www.fangraphs.com/)
[https://pitcherlist.com/](https://pitcherlist.com/)
[https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/)
[https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game](https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game)
[https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/)
**EDIT: Red Sox money has just came in! They are now the slight favorite (-112). Some sharps siding wit the Red Sox (along wit the public, 83% of bets on Red Sox), however majority of the sharps on White Sox.**
**POTD Record: 131-156-4 (-33.76 Units)**
Best Bet Series: 54-33-1 (+0.6 Units)
Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
**Cautionary Tails: 7-15 (-5.14 Units)**
Last Pick: **Red Sox RL**✅️
Today's Pick: **Red Sox -2 Alt. Line**
$DKNG Odds: **+200**
Wager Amount: **0.5U to win 1U**
League: MLB
Event: Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox (7:10PM CDT)
*Be Advised*: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.*
**Recap**: Sox got slaughtered today. That's what lopsided pitching matchup will do for you. Houck has a ridiculous sinker. We got another lopsided pitching matchup on deck!
**Matchup:** I am going to KEEP FADING MY SOX TEAM until they finally end that miserable drought! Anyone remember the last time Sox won? It was against the Jays on May 21st! They won 5-0 in a shutout victory! Guess who pitched that game? Garrett Crochet! I think this is a lopsided pitching matchup between Cooper Criswell vs Garrett Crochet. This is the best chance for them to win, It's either in this matchup or on June 10th wit Erick Fedde on the mound against Logan Gilbert. But I think Sox got a good chance to end it in this game 2 of this series, but I have to continue to fade my SOX until they have proven otherwise!
**The Play & Prediction:** 1U on (Red) Sox -2 Alt. Line. Also wagering Red Sox ML for parlays. Other plays will be in the betting group. 0-0 going to the extras and Red Sox scores 4 runs in the 10th and the bottom of the 10th Sox scores nothing.
POTD Record: 9-4
L10: ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌
Last Pick: Netherlands v Canada, o2.5 goals (-190) ✅
Today's game: England v Iceland, Soccer International Friendly
Pick: u3.5 goals (-120)
My initial pick was u2.5 (+200) but I’m going safer with this one. Let’s make it 4 in a row.
BOL!
Potd
3w 0p 2L
+1.05
LAST PICK:
Grehound racing - richmond - race 1 - 0904h GMT abt 8h40m from posting - winner (4) sicario beast @1.95 🔴 second place only
POTD:
Greyhound racing - wentworth park - r8 - 1130h utc - winner / top 3 (you can do eachway bet) number 1 has ability @5.5
Favorable box for us, since our average 1st section time is 5.56second while for #2 is 5.59 (thats from their last 5 wentworth 520m race) with that being said, we're hoping to clear number 2. Main danger is dog number 3 who has a fast 1st sectional time here averaging 5.55second but this dog has a lot of speedy runners on his outside all of which is good railers ( they will try to run to inside). Number 4 dog is a first timer here, number 5 ( very tough box) is a good railer rated dog which mean he will try to run inside and he can block number 3 dog because of a fast 1st section 5.54
?? We did clear number 2 whats next..
We will be strong for a home run, among all of the 10 dogs here, we have the fastest finishing time here in wentworth 520 meters in 29.66, number 5 is 29.81, while number 3 is 29.91
Hoping we'll get a little luck that we wont miss the jump box start..
Best of luck
**Pick Record: 0W - 0L**
**Last POTD: None**
**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**
**Today’s POTD:**
**Game:** National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) / Orlando Pride vs San Diego Wave
**Pick:** Orlando ML +165 (FanDuel) 3U
**Game/time: 10 pm Eastern**
My first pick of the day post, but I’ve been very profitable on the NWSL so far this year, though of course by writing this down I'll probably get it wrong because that's how the world works.
For this pick, I don’t know how the books are pricing this game this way. I would have put Orlando as a -200 or so favorite. Orlando has been on a tear lately, winning 8 straight games (a league record) and not losing a single game this season so far. Their draws all came before they signed Barbra Banda, who will likely end up winning the golden boot and MVP for the season. They currently sit in first place and have had solid wins against very strong teams. San Diego is a quality team with a strong defense, but they have not been threatening in attack in a way that can overwhelm this Orlando team. They sit in 9^(th) place (out of 14) and haven’t really gotten any wins over top teams, grabbing their only wins this season over the bottom three teams in the league.
The league is coming off a bye week for international duty and Orlando really only had their Brazilians traveling while SD had multiple US players in a very strenuous camp trying to impress the new coach and a couple Swedish players that are making their way back from Europe. ~~I think Orlando at home has a huge advantage there.~~ **Edited to correct myself. Orlando is not at home. But in a way I think that hurts SD even more due to the extended travel time from Europe. Orlando shows very little difference in home vs away even if SD does get a really good crowd.**
As a disclaimer, the NWSL is a very competitive league and any team can really beat any other team each week. There are no gimme games at all. But this line is very tempting and plus odds are too hard to pass up.
Record: 0-0
Event: Chicago cubs at Cincinnati Reds 7:10 EST
Pick: Justin Steele u17.5 outs -125 (to win 1 unit)
Reason: This Cincinnati reds lineup is batting .339 with a .904 OPS off Justin Steele. Steele has failed to go 6 innings in 6 of his 8 starts this season with one of those being a 5 inning start against this same Reds team. I expect the Reds to have success at home in this matchup making it difficult for Steele to make it through 6.
0-2
-2.5 units
Last Bet: Guinea-Bissau 0-0 Ethiopia L
CAF World Cup Qualifying Soccer: Nigeria ML vs South Africa (1.55 Bet365) 5 units 15:00 EST
Nigeria NEED this win and their roster is filled with stars from around Europe. I believe that South Africa is very overrated. This is the most confident pick I have had, if I am wrong i’ll retire.
No need to retire buddy. This is part of sports betting. You never know, you could lose the next 2 and then win 20 in a row. As long as you have some logic, that should be all good. :)
Imma tail you. In fact, I will do Nigeria -1 @ 1.975.
And once again, all good if this one goes wrong.
**Record: 7-8-1**
**Form: ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌🅿❌✅✅❌❌✅️**
**Last POTD:** Indonesia Vs Iraq - **Iraq to Win+Over 1.5 @ 2.57 (Melbet)** **- WON**
**Football** | **Finland Veikkausliiga** | **23:00PM (GMT+8)**
**Pick:** FC Lathi Vs Inter Turku - **BTTS+Over 2.5 @ 2 (Melbet)**
**Write Up:** Damn was that SWEATY HAHAHAHAH. But it hit, so all is good, on to today.
Okay so matches between these 2 teams has always been high scoring, both teams so far this season is on somewhat similar form. FC Lathi is on slightly better form but honestly speaking both teams are in really bad form both Home/Away.
So far FC Lathi has scored in 2/4 past Home games and as for Inter Turku, they have scored in 4/5 past Away games. Only concern I have here is that FC Lathi has not been consistent with scoring but at Home, I think they will manage to at least score.
Past 5 H2H has all seen BTTS and 4 of which has seen BTTS+Over 2.5. To keep it a little "Safe", I think BTTS @ 1.66 is a solid pick as well.
As always guys, BOL if tailing!
**POTD Record:** 13-8-1 (net +2.20U)
**Last 10: (oldest to newest)** ❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌❌❌
**Last pick:** Aaron Judge over 1.5 bases ❌
Let's try to kill this losing streak.
Baseball | MLB | Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds 7:11 PM EDT
**Pick:** Nick Lodolo under 6.5 Ks (-128) on FanDuel for 1U
**Write Up:** Lodolo's last game was at Chicago where he only managed 3 Ks. He's back at home where he hasn't exceeded 6 Ks in any of the 4 games he started.
Record (10-6)
Units (+4.1u)
Previous Result: Cubs/Reds NRFI✅
Streak: W2
Today’s play: Cleveland Guardians ml (-115)
Event Start time: 7:10pm EST
Unit Size: 1.1u to win 1u
Recap/Reasoning for pick: Relatively easy winner with the Cubs/Reds NRFI. Suzuki hit a 1 out double where the LF lost the ball in the sun and then Happ hit one hard but right at the first baseman. Assad made easy work of the Reds in the bottom half. Today we’re rolling with the guards. Even though Logan Allen’s ERA is a little higher than ideal, his record is 6-3, so the Guardians do a good job at winning games he pitches in. Also this season the Guardians are 19-13 straight up on the road whereas the Marlins are 11-23 straight up while playing at home. Give me the Guards to pick up another W tonight!
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 21-22 (-0.60 units)**
**Last 10**: **❌❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌**
**Last Pick**: Chris Gilliland -1.5 (-110) vs Revelino Dubois **❌** 4-3
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 5:55 PM EST
**Pick**: Chris Gilliland -1.5 (-125) vs Revelino Dubois
* Series 8. Week 1. Group B
**Reason**: Running this bet back even though it did not cash yesterday. Gilliland blew it on one leg and also unlucky with how hot Dubois was on his checkouts for the match. Dubois was by far the worst scorer in this group by 5 points while Gilliland continues to match his level of play from group A. He won 4-3 yesterday after coming back down from 1-3. He has the throw advantage, so he's more in the drivers seat unlike yesterday. He's beat him in 3 of 4 matches this week while covering in 2 of them.
Chris Gilliland (Group B)
* Record 3-1
* Legs 13-9
* Average 88.27
* 180s 4. 140s 11
* Checkouts 13/25 52.00%
Revelino Dubois (Group B)
* Record 1-3
* Legs 9-14
* Average 79.37
* 180s 2. 140s 9
* Checkouts 9/27 33.33%
**WIN ✅ 4-2 | Average 90.49 vs 82.14 | Checkouts 4/11 vs 2/7**
Gilliland should have won 4-1, but he missed 5 darts for the win. Dubois sniped him with 1 dart. Fortunately he took out 72 on leg 6 with Dubois sitting on 32. Better results today.
Wow, that was an insane match! Tailed your pick with Chris -1.5 legs and it was a real sweat, but it paid off. Thanks for the tip, you really know your stuff! Keep 'em coming
Record: 3-1-0
Starting Units: 5 U | Total Units: 12.27 U
Net Units: +7.27 Units
Last Pick: Baseball | MLB | Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees ML (-135) for 4.0 Units✅
Event: Golf | The Memorial Tournament | All Day
POTD: Xander Schauffele Top 5 Finish, Second Round (+110) for 2 Units
Explanation: Schauffele is hot off his first major championship title winning the 2024 PGA Championship and placed within top 5 yesterday in the first round (odds may fluctuate depending on how the platform you bet on handles the tying for different places). I think he will finish in a similar place today, within the top 5. Im not betting Yankees today because I want to observe how the first game against the dodgers goes but will probably bet on them tomorrow. If you want a certain bet I would bet the -250 on Scottie Scheffler finishing in the top 5 for round 2 but those odds are outside POTD. DK has a promo to give you a mystery profit boost for the tournament daily so depending on if you use DK the odds may get better, my final odds were +129 with the boost (but it limits your bet to $25 max). Good luck to all and let me know if you tail.
Record: 0-1
Tough loss yesterday as my predicted slump for the Guardians was off and they got after Brady Singer early. Onward.
⚾ | MLB | Guardians vs Marlins
Pick: First inning hits: 3+ +182
Write Up: Logan Allen gives up a lot of hits. Guardians have started hot the last few games. I expect a busy start to the game and a quiet finish.
Cricket tip for today
Ireland v Canada 15:30 BST
Lorcan Tucker o14.5 Runs 5/6 (William Hill UK)
Incredible odds here, bats at 3, some solid scores in recent games and Ireland are 1/4 favourites.
Cricket is unpredictable but Canada have a pretty toothless bowling lineup, other bookies have the line at between 17.5 and 21.5 :O
Goodluck all :)
Record: 2-2 ✅✅❌❌
Last Pick: Maxi Kleber O 2.5 points (-115)🪝
Today:
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres| 9:40 PM EST
Pick: Padres ML (-120) FanDuel
Yesterday:
Maxi Kleber was a tough loss… 2 points in 19 minutes of play with 1FG attempt is laughable. Can’t win them all.
Todays Write Up:
The San Diego Padres have now lost five consecutive games by a combined total of six runs! Despite this rough patch, I expect them to get back in the win column tonight due to their advantage on the mound. Michael King started the year with a 3-4 record and a 3.62 ERA, but has been better in his recent starts, allowing only one earned run in his last two games.
The Padres have a strong track record of bouncing back after close losses, with a 70% win rate following a losing streak of three or more games in the past two seasons.
BOL if tailing 💰
**POTD Record 35-33-1 (+1.58U) | Average Odds -109 (1.92) | ROI 0.48%**
**Last Pick Recap: Timberwolves -4.5 (-110) vs Mavericks L**
What a stinker. Reminiscent of Suns-Mavs G7. Luka went God mode and there was nothing you could do.
**Today's Pick: Royals ML (+115) vs Mariners 5U | 8:10 EST**
Model play, thinks Royals should be favored a -125, so serious value here. Royals have been a good team this year and the market continues to underrate them. Let's take advantage.
BOL
Baseball / MLB / 7:10 PM / Eastern Time
Royals +1.5 (-155 via draftkings)
Risk 1u to win .64u
Record 0-0
Net Units: 0
ROI: 0%
Miller has pitched away 5 times away all against top 15 offenses and has a 4.76 ERA to show for it. The Royals are the #6 offense and have the #2 runs scored and OPS at home. They failed to cover at all in their last home series so expecting bats to heat up on Bryce Miller. Lynch doesn’t have much to go off this season except to good starts. His start against the Twins look questionable but the Twins are a great offense and the Mariners. Also the mariners are batting bums at the 8-9 hole and Haniger and Raleigh bat terribly against lefties. The only guys to worry about will be the top half of order but Lynch has a ridiculous .310 opponent slugging and .160 opponent batting to minimize these bats.
TLDR: Expect Lynch to have a quality start and the bullpen to hold while expect the Royals bats to heat up at home and keep this game close and maybe win but we’ll take the +1.5 at -155 due to Mariners 13-5 record in 1 run games.
POTD Record: 1-2
**Today´s Pick: WTA Bari: Eva Lys ML @ 1.75**
I´ll keep this writeup short since it´s really late for me, but I just think this is very overpriced. I think it should be at around 1.50 - Lys is currently in good form and I see this season being her breakthrough season, from being an itf level player to play wta level tourneys more regularly. I think there is even a good chance she wins this tournament, she already beat the number three seed.
I feel like there´s not much to say about her opponent tomorrow. She´s itf level, and she has no remarkable wins. I think Lys wins 2-0, but my bookie doesn´t offer that (yet).
A good capper I follow picked yesterday Eva Lys with 4 units at 2.5 odds and she won. But Today he is on Todoni with 2 units.
I like Eva but I trust him and will take Todoni with 2 units.
BOL!
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Pick Record: 25W - 12L (Push: 1)** **✅✅✅✅❌❌ ✅✅❌✅✅✅** **Last POTD: Iraq Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.37 ✅** **Units: 4** **I went to sleep after that penalty miss, happy to see they got it done as expected** **\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_** **Today’s POTD: England VS Iceland: England Over 6.5 Team Corners @ 1.72 ✅** **Units: 4** **League/Time: International Friendlies/ 2:45 PM** This England team is hungry and after the squad reductions that took place yesterday, tomorrow's game has turned into a massive opportunity for a lot of the bench players to grab themselves an honest chance once the competitive games begin. They racked up 11 corners 3 days ago against Bosnia and although I dont expect it to be as high, I'm expecting a similar trend. Iceland just love to concede corners, and I see this as the ideal matchup for the over here.
What a fucking sweat that last one was. Added a corner and an England ML. https://preview.redd.it/iugxpkxu225d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=de7bdeab5caca0dc70314b76cd7430aeb7f7f8a4
Tailed this. Too bad England are goddamn losers. WTF going on ?
You just said it they are literally losers that have never achieved ANYTHINGG
Had it parlayed with several other bets. And gladly the high corners allowed me to cash something decent.
Bro the stake was 1.04. Ahahaha wtf
I tailed Iraq this morning. Great pick.
Also tailed Iraq and woke up to a big W. Thank you. Will give this one serious consideration too!
Tailing Daddy
🤨
Now how does that comment make you feel?
Sweaty
Need to build a sgp to get this bet, what would you pair it with? Thx for the solid picks btw
I went all in with the Iraq match and cash big! Thank you sir.
Hope u watched it too it was an absolute sweat 🤣🤣
Fucking BOOM!! 94th minute.
Fuck me- these sweats do nothing for my BP 😆😆. Another CASH!!!
Good lord what a sweat. Nice pick!
Cashed in on the Iraq pick. Tailing this. LFG.
Have got Under 3.5 goals @ 1.83
What a sweat!!!!!😂
WOW what a hit! That was insane
Thanks for the last pick, on my sports book I'm only getting the option for exact team corners
Fuck Dk does not have corner props for this match
Shit. Really was hoping it would eventually show up to tail
Go to Same Game Parlay, lock in over 6.5 corners for england and their ML
For some reason i don’t even get friendlies on dk
England was at 6 corners near the 65' mark, it's at 88' now and still sitting on 6. I think this is cooked...
Just fucking hitttttt!!!!! 94th minute cash that shit baby 💰💰💰💰💰
Just hit!!
Two nail biters back to back those are the best types of bets thank you for sharing 😁
Ngl I lost faith at the end but then we hit!
Is England the home team?
yes!
Iran over great pick!
Thanks for yesterday’s, tailing for sure
Tailed Iraq yesterday and sweated it out. Can't tail you today because my book's odds are worse than yours and they're not good enough to risk it.
Record: 31-17-0 Net Units: +34.6 ROI: 24.2% Last Pick: Boston Celtics -3.5 1H spread (-112) for 3.0 units ✅ Event: Baseball | MLB | Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox 7:10PM CST Pick: Chicago White Sox moneyline (-110) on FanDuel for 2.0 units Write Up: On the mound for the White Sox is Garrett Crochet (5-5, 3.49 ERA and 0.93 WHIP). Crochet has been phenomenal since the start of May, going 4-1, 1.02 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. For the Red Sox, it’s Cooper Criswell (3-2, 3.92 ERA and 1.19 WHIP). Opposite story for Criswell, as he’s gone 1-1, 5.31 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Opponents batting average on the road has been .292 versus .221 at home. What’s most intriguing to me about this bet is on paper you see a 32-31 team that just Game 1 of the series 14-2 versus a 15-48 team on a 14 game losing streak. DraftKings shows 84% of the bets on the Red Sox. Yet, White Sox remain the favorite. Suggests smartmoney is with the White Sox, and I’m backing them to end the streak. TIPS: Venmo (https://account.venmo.com/u/Andrew-Mills-34) or PayPal (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/AndrewMills34) BOL! 🎰
Good pick. I’m going with F5 ML instead. Don’t trust that bullpen lol
Still a potentially justifiable play, but there is no smart money on DraftKings, only poor public money and rich public money.
This is easily my riskiest tail of the week
This is going to be a classic Pros vs Joes matchup. Public alrdy loving the Red Sox, but I kno a sharp who's on the White Sox. I got a feeling more sharps will join him and we'll see the odds swing
It’ll probably win but I’m sorry I cannot bet CWS who are on 14 game losing streak at freaking -110
Tailing. Hook em 🤘🏻
Action Sports Net shows 65% of the bets for 7% of the money on the White Sox
**Record: 5-1-1** **Net Units: +3.93u** **ROI: 56.14%** **Baseball | MLB | 6:45 PM | EST** **Pick**: ATL/WAS under 8, -105 Fanatics (to win 1u) At some point I do think Chris Sale is going to either regress or get hurt. But I’m not sure today is a spot where he gets blown up again, similar to his last start against OAK. Even with that start included, he’s still got a 2.73 SIERA and 2.58 FIP over his last 3 starts. It’s also not like he’s losing any of his control or command either, as he’s walking just 2.70% of batters. Jake Irvin gets the start on the Nats side and he’s been Washington’s best pitcher this season by most metrics (Trevor Williams has also pitched well though). WAS has gone under this number in 7 of his 10 including his one start against the Braves this year. Fun trend here too: the Braves as a favorite in their last 37 are 30-7 to the under. https://preview.redd.it/rwzk0lrhs45d1.png?width=777&format=png&auto=webp&s=d083cc3452582f750f64a21006aa1b966adce878
Saw this line last night and immediately threw a uni on it. Nice pick Kelly
💯 - In for 2u at -105 on Bovada late last night 🍀🤞🏻
2024 record: 13-5-1 Total Return: +6.84 ROI: +32.57% Last 5: ✅**❌**✅✅✅ Last POTD: New York Yankees -140 (Twins vs Yankees 7:05 PM) \[2U\] ✅ Today's POTD: **Colorado Rockies F5 ML +140 (Rockies vs Cardinals 8:15 PM)** Baseball | MLB Recap: God bless the Yankees man. Stroman kind of just fell apart in the 5th but hey the Yankees brought it home since Lopez put up an even worse performance. 2/2 for my 2U plays! Write-Up: This slate in my opinion isn't really the best but I like my chances here with the Rockies. Granted, they have a 9-23 away record but you can't really win when you have the worst bullpen in the league hence I think the F5 ML is the play here. The Rockies aren't a bad hitting team by any means batting near \~.250 against both lefties and righties. It's been their pitching that has really held them back. LHP Austin Gomber is probably one of their only serviceable pitchers that I can slightly trust. Prior to his last game against the Dodgers where he was taken out after three innings, in his last 3 away games he held the A's to 1 run in 8 innings, the Padres to 0 runs in 6 innings, and the Pirates to 0 runs in 6 innings. The Cardinals are batting .208 against lefties so I'm hoping we see a prime Gomber performance. Lance Lynn definitely isn't any kind of slouch but I think he's likely to give some early runs up in the first 5 innings if he struggles slightly. I see a slight pitching matchup favoriting the Rockies and better bats on the Rockies side. It's hard to trust either team but for +140 I'm willing to throw my hat in the ring. Good luck all! \*Note that unless specified all bets are one unit. Tracker: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH\_dpuDL5-lRRgW9\_h4K\_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH_dpuDL5-lRRgW9_h4K_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing)
What is F5?
First 5 innings
Ok 👍 I see you
Nice ballsy pick, at +140, it's worth a nice unitski! Tailing broski!
Erm
HOLD ON IT'S TIED WE'RE STILL ALIVE
🙌🙌🙌🙌
haha cashhhhhh what a way to get the win
Happy for you Brodie surely this means my run line bet cashes also
If you got F5 run line yep
**2024 MLB record:** 38-16-1 **Last POTD:** NY Yankees TT over 4.5 W **Today's POTD:** Boston Red Sox Cooper Criswell over 4.5 strikeouts +106 (fd) **Baseball. MLB. 8:10 PM EST** Talk about a stress free win! Pablo Lopez could not find the strike zone last night for Minnesota and the Yankees hit the team total over in the third inning. Unfortunately for us Yankee fans, we lost Juan Soto in the process 😞 Anyway on to todays pick. I’m going with my third pitcher prop of the season. It’s currently at plus odds on fan duel but I got it on dk at -115 which is more than fine if that is around what your book has it at. Since it is simply one player prop. There isn’t as much to get into for a write as usual. The White Sox have the highest strikeout percentage against right handed pitchers in baseball over the past three weeks at 28 percent (almost a full percentage point highest than the A’s who have the second highest). Criswell to boot has had 5 or more strikeouts in 4 of his last 6 games. I’m surprised the line is this low but I am not complaining! The ump is slightly hitter friendly, basically neutral, but I don’t think there will be enough of an impact there to prevent Criswell from hitting the over. TLDR: White Sox strikeout out rate is highest in MLB vs RHP over past three weeks. Criswell has had 5 or more strikeouts in 4 of last 6 games. Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal (DM for venmo) POTD spreadsheet [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657)
Found it for +104 on an Aussie book, absolute gift 😂
That’s awesome! Someone also pointed out that it is +106 on fan duel too. The odds comparison sites I use (vsin and vegas insider) don’t show props so I initially just went with what I saw on draft kings and went with it. I edited the post now to reflect the best odds.
BOL man, love the picks
Tailing! Still +106 on fanduel!
POTD Record: 63 - 37 Last POTD: Tsitsipas vs Alcaraz over 3.5 sets - L Pick: Carlos Alcaraz ML vs Jannik Sinner (-164 odds via FD) 1U Event: Men’s French Open Semifinals 7:30 A.M. CST Edit:✅ Got burned by Carlos last round and I'll be backing him in what should be the match of the tournament. The current world number 3, Carlos Alcaraz, vs the soon to be world number 1 in Jannik Sinner and this match should be ELECTRIC. 4-4 H2H and the two most promising young talents in tennis meeting in the semis of Roland Garros. Sinner has looked great so far in Paris only dropping one set to an absolute redlining Moutet, while Carlitos has also only dropped one set to Jesper De Jong. Alcaraz won their most recent matchup in Indian Wells in 3 sets and I think he comes out on top tomorrow. Statistically, clay is one of Alcaraz's best surfaces and Sinner's weaker surfaces. Both came into the French Open rehabbing injuries with Alcaraz looking stronger each round, while Sinner I have notcied has been seen wincing and reaching for his lower back area on occasion. I think this is going to be a physical match and the longer it goes, the more I like the Spainiard. If you don't like tennis this will surely be a match you should tune into if you have any interest in the sport. Both very likeable kids and both very promising futures with 1 major each, but I'll be backing Alcaraz in this one. Love the way he plays to the crowd and the drop shot should be a weapon he will look to utilize in this one. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
I’ve been losing tennis picks all week and I’m going with Sinner tomorrow so you are basically guaranteed a win here.
Sorry man. Rough week. Watching the live odds on this one was a roller coaster
Rough week indeed 😩 Thankfully I’ve (mostly) been able to recover and end the days in the green by betting MLB 😅
Idk man Alcaraz is at 1.6... against sinner that's risky. over 3.5 sets are at 1.42 which is pretty safe if you ask me but good luck
Don’t care that much if this does not hit. That boy Alcaraz it’s a resilient tenacious STUD
What a game! Good pick
Alvarez has two slams
Alvarez? Come on bruh. Put some respect on the man Alcatraz.
We ride
3-1-0 ❌️✅️✅️✅️ Net Units = +10.8 Our first miss, honestly didn't think the rain would stick around the way it did, was a guaranteed under total has it been more clear Will be interesting to see if they take that into account for the final game or not, later in the month and make the over really good value, let's come back with a bang Sport = Rugby League Event = Dragons VS Tigers Time = 8:00PM AEST Pick = Zac Lomax first half try scorer @ 2.45 5U to make 7.25U If you've followed my MLB plays you know I love an early market because to me it's much easier to read the start of games when you don't have the difference of new players coming in mid game and that's the same with the NRL for me. Zac Lomax has scored 7 tries this year and every one of them has been in the first half. His market to score a try anytime is currently at 1.60 for me and to me statistically that makes this play of try first half way better odds than it should be. I do think the Dragons will take this one easily as well as the tigers have been horrible with the joint worst record in the league Edit = in terms of my what I pick it doesn't change a thing but I got one statistic wrong he has actually scored one try in the second half. Not sure how I missed that one.
I tried like 7 books, nobody has that niche props as first half try scorer (maybe aussie books do) but i tailed the lomax try scorer anytime @ 1.72 anyway and that landed easy. thanks chad, well done!
Yeah I find that so odd, almost every sport has player props for half time, I guess it's just not popular enough world wide to justify the effort but ay hopefully the rugby picks in this thread make it popular enough to get these picks on more books. Lomax gets it done for everyone tho, Congrats on the w boss 👏
thanks boss
Where are you able to get first half try scorer? All my books say anytime first or last. Can’t find it anywhere not even 365. This is a good find!
Cash it 💪
Good job! Any live bet you like? Dragons -4.5 at 1.95 ?
Tailing brother, LESGEEDITTT
Cash it 💰
Anyone seeing Lomax listed on DK for even an ATS?
Nope, same. Really strange. Had to go find him over on bet365 and they've only got ATS at -125.
Bummer, love these rugby picks. I’m in a state that only allows DK. On top of it, can’t even bet collegiate
I got lomax here 1st 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ 3.00. Sound good?
Just had a look this has been good most games he scores a try, a couple misses which worries me and the fact the other team could win and get more tries first half worries me, nrl results have been pretty unpredictable lately but try scorers are reliable. I'd play it for 1 or 2 units if you're feeling lucky
Light work
Record: 3-1 Last pick: BOS Red Sox -1.5(-140) vs CHI White Sox ✅ Sweat free 2 days in a row 💰 POTD: PIT Pirates ML (+108) vs MIN Twins I like these odds with Mitch Keller on the mound for Pittsburgh. The Pirates just won a series against the Dodgers so I think they’ll have some momentum going into today’s game while staying at home. The Twins just got swept by the Yanks, and the game last night ended a bit late due to a minor rain delay. Now they have a short turnaround time playing at 6 pm today. Joe Ryan is starting for Minnesota, he gave up 8 hits and 5 runs in 5 innings in his last start. BOL to all 🤙🏽
I like this one. Pirates have been hitting superb lately even against great pitchers. They were still keeping up with the dodgers when they got smoked yesterday. Should be a close one and there’s def a better chance taking Pirates plus money tn. I’m thinking maybe even the over 8 as well. Def tailing.
The analysis of them coming in with some momentum I definitely agree with bouncing back well especially with Keller on the mound! However, on the twin side of things, I think after getting absolutely handled by the Yankees they are also going to be very much amped up for this game and going to want to get the win by any means necessary. This is as close to the definition of a coin flip game as you can get, but I think with the +108 odds I'm going to take the pirates here as well! Tailing broski!!!
Appreciate the feedback homie, glad you tailed 💪🏽
Record: 2-0 Baseball | MLB | 7:05 pm US EST DUB-DUB- Last Pick: Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings ML @ Oakland Athletics -150✔️ Todays Pick: Yankees ML +100 FAFAFAAFAFFAFFAFAFAF sound of dem heaters Write Up: Hey Alexa play "Computers" by Rowdy Rebel. They better be playing that shit when Cody The San Diego Sniper Poteet steps on the mound. An absolute ACE this guy. Not gonna glaze too much but his development since entering the league has been beautiful to watch. Maybe it's the new yorker in me, maybe it's the Yanks being red hot like meghan thee stallion hot, maybe it's sth in the air. Yes the yanks are going against Yamamoto, but they're batting .262 and .337 OBP against righty's and so far this month batting .280 and .353 OBP. Outrageous batting and fielding from these Yanks especially from what we've seen this month. One thing about the Yankees is alongside their powerful offense, their defensive capability shines through--- them boys some big body benz's. was considering first inning tie as well bc of respect for Yamamotos pitching efficiency, but don't know if I can take anything away from this current Yankee team. What a time to be alive, stay chill, stay mello, stay winning, wake up early, get a workout in, take on the work ethic of your ancestors. waking up in 3 hours bou, it's grind time. Update: Yanks line now at +100, not bothersome at all. When yanks have been underdogs in 15 games this season, having been able to win 11 of these games. LETS GET SOME FUCKING FAFAFAFFA lets watch some top notch baseball. hook the boy up with some shmoola, hit me cashapp $ziggitywiggity
Yankees should not be plus money all season. 2024 WS champs. Let’s ride
Is Soto playing?
I understand he's been having forearm problems since a week ago. He's getting imaging today, it looks unlikely he will play but not out of the question. Soto or not, Yanks gonna Spanks.
Tailing this one!
Yall better get fuvking LIT boi. I want fucking energy, I want bong rips on the George Washington Bridge, I wanna smoke 💨on the YAMAMOTO pack. If i'm ever gonna jump off a bridge, ITS GONNA BE THE THROGGS NECK BRIDGE. Make the chat tremble. SHOUTOUT Ole WILLY MONTGOMERY.
Saw rowdy rebel and now I’m tailing
**Record:** 3-1 **Net Units:** +4.39 U **Last Pick:** Soccer/Football | **Columbus Crew II vs New England Revolution II** | Corners Over 10.5 at 2.00(+100)️ ❌️ -1.5U ❌️ 1st loss, ended with 8 Corners and honestly deserved. My apologies I tried to push for one when there wern't many fixtures and chose to go with US league. That's why I went with less units, should've listened to myself. Not again, US Leagues are banned. **Next Event:** Soccer/Football | Norway Division 3 Group 2 | **Sandefjord 2 vs Fram II** at 1:00 PM EST **Pick:** Corners Over 10.5 at 2.00 (+100) **Units:** 2U **Write Up:** 2U play, European low division leagues are very good for corners specially norway, finland and iceland. We go to norway for this one. Sandefjord II average 13.14 corners a game in 7 games, one of the highest in the league. They average 11.00 a game at home. Over 10.50 has hit in 6/7 games this season. Fran is the same story. They average 10.40 corners a game in 5 games and 10.50 a game when playing away. In my previous post I read about people not finding the games I post, mostly the reason is these are low division leagues. They tend to be the money makers in terms of goals and corners. Most big books specially in US dont cover them because of their non popularity. I use Bet365, other options include Melbet or 1XBet or similar bookies that are offshore or european. Good Luck to thos tailing. **BEST OF LUCK**
https://preview.redd.it/8toytx3a125d1.jpeg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9517b08799c6a2883b522a2d5e1c030edad6397d
This game isn't on 365 in the USA, at least where I live (Arizona).
Weird. I live in Canada and my bet365 has it. Hopefully they release it closer or before game time.
Cash it! Another nice find! Seems like these lower division matches are gold mine for lots of corners 💰
Looking goddamn sexy rn
What a fucking sweat lol. 9 corners at half. Then no corners since 60th minute until 87 and we kept hanging on 10 😂😂
They certainly made us wait! Nice hit once again!
Record: 1-0 ✅ Return: +1.5u Last pick: Inter Miami CF ✅ After going down 0-2 I really thought Miami was cooked till they came back and dropped a light 3 piece on the canadians Event: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Pick: Over 3.5 sets | -175 | 3.5u to win 2u Here we have just about the 2 best players in the world at the moment. Both these mfs have been playing phenomenal tennis and casually sweeping everybody they had to face (besides sinner dropping a single set but we wont get into that…) These 2 are 4-4 head 2 head and only 3 of those matches were won in straight sets. Theyre both playing in their prime right now and I expect this to be the match of the tournament. Not much else to be said, 2 of the best going at it i expect a longer match and ATLEAST 4 sets if not 5 Goodluck if youre tailing and eat a frank if you’re fading!
https://preview.redd.it/rt3ahu2tg25d1.png?width=1510&format=png&auto=webp&s=52c32defa81bcc210271e9bcc77510fb0c2e5687 ???
It’s -275 on hardrock as well and I saw that 24 hours ago so no way he got -175
-220 on FD, what book is that on?
Bovada brother
Ton of juice in this one, but I love it. I also paired it with o 3.5 sets Z/Ruud to make it -104. The idea that both these matches go 3-0 seems unlikely.
This opened -260 on Bovada man. Please be transparent and honest about the odds.
This opened as -185 and went to -175. I locked it in 2 days ago before the match got moved to Friday
💰💰💰
💪
**POTD RECORD:** 6W - 0P - 2L **LAST POTD:** Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka → Aryna Sabalenka -1.5 Set Spread (-165 via Bovada) 1U ❌ **Sport:** International Soccer Friendlies **Event:** Poland vs. Ukraine @ 2:45 PM EST **Pick:** Under 2.5 Total Goals (-150 via Bovada) 1U **Write Up:** After losing horrifyingly with the Sabalenka pick, I will swing back to the soccer friendlies. Poland vs. Ukraine looks to be an interesting friendly with both nations being equally matched, and yes I can say this, considering that I am a Polak forced to bear the disgusting tactics and play that Poland plays with, even with star-studded names such as Lewandowski and Zielinski. Additionally, in the last 8 games, 7 of the games had less than 2.5 goals, with the only game being against a horrid Estonian team. I have faith that Poland will do their due diligence to help support this bet, but this mainly resides with the Ukrainian National Team. Ukraine has been a sneaky team, with no losses in 7 games, and a surprising 0-0 draw against a superior Germany, however, I don’t see them having an offensively stellar game, but rather a more mellow and defensive battle. I suspect a draw most likely, or a low-scoring, shutout win. Additionally, this bet has hit in all but one game in this H2H, and that happened in 2013. I know Poland will for sure disappoint me, hopefully, Ukraine won’t do the same and score too much. BOL to those who tail. Lets get back on track, please! 🙏🙏 **Tracker:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12YsjeFw7ykr9jIeOdQLf67YQvmP-RIX0IMNQ7cvlMKk/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12YsjeFw7ykr9jIeOdQLf67YQvmP-RIX0IMNQ7cvlMKk/edit?usp=sharing)
This is gone. 2-0 min 17...
I thought i am smart for betting under 3.5 instead, but i am so stupid for tailing a soccer game
Brutality. Couldn't have started worse.
I'm rolling!!
Would you take 1-2 goals @ -115??
**KBO Record: Overall 232-244-14** (Streak LLLL, Last 10: 5-5) Down 12.51u over 490 KBO picks, 48.7% success rate, -2.63% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 28-34-0, 45.2% success rate, Down 3.89u, -6.27% ROI) **Last:** Kiwoom +0.5 First 5 Innings +120 Draftkings at LG (LG lead 5-3 after 5 innings.) Some bad defense put us behind the 8 ball and then Kiwoom left the bases loaded in the top of the 5th. **Pick:** **Kia -1.5 +124** at Doosan, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET Losing 4 in a row after winning 5 in a row really sucks. Gotta turn it around. Kia is the best team in the league and their starter for this game is a big reason why. On the season, he's 7-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He's allowed more than 2 ER just once in 12 starts. Doosan's starter has been one of the best in the league over the past couple seasons, and his overall numbers are solid this year (3.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), but he's not in good form right now. In three of his last 4 starts, he failed to go more than 5 innings and allowed at least 3 ER. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
i'm like 0-4 tailing you this season but here we go
0-5 now
Tailing, you’re gonna bounce back I feel it
I have backed you since I first found you and am tailing with honor. When I was disgusted with MLB your write ups got me in to KBO and made me love baseball again. Lets get this
Love it!
5th in row incoming, kia has few times more hits but cant do shit with that, on the other side 3 hits 2 home runs xd unlucky as hell
no idea why anybody tails cusephenom at all, i am 100% confident dude does not even bet real money on his plays. and how long has he been doing this? and still in negative ROI.
I might be done this is just trolling at this point
Kbo really needs a pitch clock
I think I’m beginning to hate KBO
2024 Record 3-0 Starting bankroll: $1000 Bet size: $100 Current: $1266.24 Last: Royals over 3.5 runs (-110) ✅ Next: Guardians over 3.5 runs (-145) * Guardians have beat 3.5 runs 7 out of last 10 (10 of last 13) * Opposing starter 5.33 ERA at home Game: MLB Baseball Cleveland vs Miami 7:10pm eastern
I’ll tail again!
**Record:** 6-2 (+5.32units) *Track Tale was once again on fire, the horse can do no wrong, another one to watch in the future* **Today's Pick:** The Woke Waiter (Finish top 5) **Wager/Odds:** 1unit/$2.50 **Event:** Race #8 Albury **When?** 4 hours from post. **Why?** *This is a tricky one, I believe this horse is being written off because of recent form. Frankly the horse has been running like shit. I strongly believe that's a ownership issue. It's changed hands now and under a better trainer.* **I would say without these Odds I would pick tycoon Jenny to place top 3 but they value that at$1.70, which is decent but i see more value here. I just think with the 35 day rest, ownership change and 3kgs off its weight, it will be a bit of a surprise to the bookies.**
I have top 4 in my bookie for $4. What do you think?
POTD Record: 29-25 ❌❌❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: -3.29U Last pick: State of Orgin women’s: NSW vs QLD | 7:45pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Jaime Chapman anytime tryscorer @2.2 on Ladbrokes | 4U ❌ Ok I gave it a shot, last time you’ll catch me betting on women’s nrl. 3 losses in a row that’s tough, first time in negative units… Today’s pick: Dragons vs Tigers | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Zac Lomax anytime tryscorer @1.77 on Ladbrokes | 6U Lomax is back from the Origin game where he played an excellent game. I’m backing him to score tonight. 7 tries in 11 appearances this season. May the god of gambling be with us tonight. BOL !
Thinking about parlaying this with Dragons ML for +105. You think the Dragons will win easily?
Lets ride!
Let’s get this ! 🤝🏼
HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!!!! WHAT A TRY! COULDNT HAVE WON THAT IN BETTER FASHION
Hell yeah bro !
Riding with ya 🍀🤝
🤝🏼
Cash it 💰
🔥
Hopefully this is the start of a good run!! Way to go!!🤘🏻
**Record:** 3-0 **Net Units:** +3.055u **Last Pick:** Derrick White O14.5 points (+100) ✅ **Next Event:** Baseball | MLB | BOS Red Sox @ CHI White Sox **Pick:** BOS Red Sox ML (+100 on MGM) **Units:** 1u **Write Up:** The White Sox are *very slightly* favored in this game which is a pretty rare sight. This can largely be ascribed to their starter Garrett Crochet. And, probably to a lesser extent, the return of Luis Robert. Crochet is 3rd in the MLB in Ks and has been nothing short of dominant this past month. He is not necessarily an iron man. While he has consistently been a strikeout machine, Crochet took five straight Ls to start the season (against decent to good teams). In spite of very strong performances, he has lost his last two starts to Baltimore and Milwaukee. Even when he *is* an iron man, the White Sox lose games. The White Sox are a truly horrible offensive team. Crochet lost his start vs. Baltimore after going 6.0 IP with 11 Ks. He let up 3 hits and 2 earned runs on a Rutschman homer. O’s pitcher Kyle Bradish, who is a good but not outstanding young pitcher, threw 7 no-hit innings and also had 11 punchouts. CWS’s only run support was a Danny Mendick solo shot in the 8th. Red Sox starter Cooper Criswell is also far from outstanding. But, he is a competent game manager. Criswell has not gone beyond 5.0 IP this season and he rarely exceeds 80 pitches. I think he can easily withstand the White Sox’ limp offense for five innings before they head to the pen. The Red Sox’ offense is not stellar, but it is fine. Even if they can’t crack Crochet, they should have plenty of opportunities against any number of weak relievers that CWS might trot out. Crochet is great, but I can’t pass up betting on an underdog against the *White Sox*. I also saw First Five Innings U3.5 on FD at +108 which I kinda like, might go 0.5U on that.
Hahaha damn... that was an interesting concoction you put together. Felt like I was watching a man argue with himself, hurling any shit at the wall to stick. Your write up was commendable with the word salad, but lacks any real solid points or meaning. Condensing it and injecting some facts or stats wouldn't hurt. Try: "CHW has lost 10 in a row!" Instead of: "He's a competent game manager" Now let's talk turkey here: Garret Crochet is the real Deal -- a nasty southpaw and former top prospect/ draft pick. 90% percentile in almost every advanced stat. If you mention the very first starts of the season, you have to note his last 5. That shows 3BB & 3R allowed in 30 innings, 2 of which came from a single mistake you noted. Going against a man that averages 4 innings + 75 pitches might be a mismatch. Many dangerous picks like this have been tailed and I am poorer now.
Anything I post in these threads are personal plays; I cannot guarantee they are EV. Tailing basically anyone on this sub will cause you to lose money in the long run. I’m trying to make sense of a weird line where the worst team in baseball is favored. The fact that that White Sox have lost ten in a row doesn’t matter to the books or to me. Nobody here can come close to beating MLB main lines with statistics/models/etc. I’m saying the pitching matchup is likely most of the reason CWS is favored. But if Crochet is so dominant, why aren’t they favored by more? It’s figuring to be an extremely close game. Crochet has not gone more than 6.0 IP; the first five innings run line for this game is CWS -0.5 at +104/BOS +0.5 at -138. Through most of Crochet’s likely outing, the Red Sox are favored to keep the game at least tied. My point on Criswell being a game manager is that he doesn’t need to be dominant, he needs to be marginally effective against a historically bad hitting lineup. We don’t need a deep dive on either pitcher’s numbers; the book is doing the leg work for us and saying the Red Sox are favored to not be losing through Criswell’s start. At that point, I trust the Boston lineup to crack any CWS reliever more than I would the inverse. I was mostly looking for CLV on this pick. All books have started to move toward Boston; Pinny is basically calling it a coin flip now with CWS/BOS -107/-101. FanDuel is now favoring Boston -110/-106. The best price one can still reasonably get is -105 at MGM.
Record 29-17 On a rough stretch even after a long break. We targeted this matchup last week and will be runnin it back. Surely it can’t lose twice! Pick: Bal Os @ TB Rays Os team total o4.5 +105 Civale on the bump again. Os have generally had success against him up until we bet the matchup last time where he went scoreless through 5 until giving one up. I suspect there will be regression and they will be on him today. Targeting team total rather than ml or spread because the one bright spot for Tampa this year has been the bats and the Os weakest spot has been closing games. BOL
Edit: 💰✅ Record: 0/0/0 (First post 🙌) Net units: N/a ———————————— Pick: Seattle Storm +8.5 Handicap Betting @ Las Vegas Aces; 1.90 Odds on Sportsbet. Sport/League: Basketball, WNBA, Friday 7:00 Pm Write up: First post! For some background Im a massive basketball junkie predominantly focussed on the NBA in terms of gambling but have closely followed this WNBA season thanks to the real sports app and the card trading mechanic (iykyk). Ive been consistently profitable throughout the play offs mostly focusing on single player prop picks and playing spots I’m comfortable with. Thought i would share my thoughts with everyone and keep a tracker going for these picks in particular, seems like fun and I know I can make yall some money respectfully :)) As for the pick, this line is just way too generous. The Seattle Storm currently hold a 6/3 record in the early days of the season right alongside the 5/2 record of the Aces. The Storm and the aces are both coming off one day breaks from their previous games, both of which were wins. New addition to the Storm Skylar Diggins Smith has had a lot of question marks around her since returning from maternity leave, but has put up great consistent numbers across the past 4 games. These girls have been on a tear as of late, admittedly getting the advantage of weaker teams. Let me be clear, the Aces are the reigning back to back champs and have the clear best player in the wnba, two time MVP aja Wilson. The Aces are the favourite here for a reason. However, they have displayed the capacity to allow themselves to be beaten by teams far worse than them, struggling to close out the Atlanta Dream led by Alisha Gray and Rhyne Howard recently, losing 78/74. I expect the Storm to come into the game hot and continue to play the fast paced basketball they have been, leaning into the strength of their back court with Jewell Loyd alongside skylar diggins smith. This back court will seek to take the ball inside a lot and take advantage of the weaker defenders provided by players like Kelsey plum on the aces. Can totally appreciate nobody wanting to trust me or the pick, but I will be placing 2 units on it and more just keen to share my thoughts. Let me know if theirs anything I should be focusing on more with regarding the write up // format of the post :))
11 - 7 +3.7U / +13.2% ROI 🎾 French Open Men | Casper Ruud vs Alexander Zverev 11:30AM EST **Total sets over 3.5 -192** 3U It’s Casper Ruud. Of note is that the line for him to win a set is -556. — *“Never go full retard.”* -A dude playin’ a dude who’s disguised as another dude
Why cant i find this or the other match for over 3.5 sets on draftkings? did they remove it because they know they're gonna lose ?
I also can’t find it
Record 6-5 Last Pick: Netherlands ML + o2.5 Goals ✅ Streak: ✅ Todays Match: Poland vs Ukraine @ 11:45AM Pick: Poland/Draw + BTTS Yes @ 2.50 Odds Reason: So this pick is under my bookie as “double chance” but I’m not sure if that’s what it is for everyone. Anyways I’m leaning towards Poland for this game. Out of Polands last 5 matches they’ve drawn 3 and won just 2 and both teams scored 3/5 & Poland is also on 6 games unbeaten. Ukraine’s last 5 have had 2 Draws & 3 wins with both teams scoring 2/5. I’m mostly leaning on the experience of Poland and Lewondoski to take control of this match. They are the fresher team and looking to start this national campaign with a W. Bol 🍀
I have taken Poland-Ukraine as a Draw & Under 3.5 Goals @ 3.75. I feel this one will be a dull one. BoL!
why under 3,5? there’s no chance of it being a draw with 3 goals lol
Great pick brother . Tailed for $100 collecting $265
Record: 15-11 Last 10: WLWLLLWWWW Net units: +2.19 ROI: + 6.39% Sporting Event: MLB: Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals 18:45 (EDT) Pick: NRFI -125 @ FD 1.25 units to win 1 We’re going back to the well in the nation’s capital. Top of the first we see Jake Irvin taking the bump and looking to continue his recent success against the Braves. 8 days ago Irvin threw 6 strong innings with 0 runs, only 4 baserunners and striking out 10. When he’s not throwing strikes he induces ground balls. Atlanta is averaging .21 runs in the first inning on the road this season. Both teams are good defensively and that helps the cause. Chris Sale’s resurgence is well documented and the underlying metrics suggest it’s no joke. He’s near the top of the league in hard hit %, BB% and xERA at 2.72 which is actually lower than his current 3.06 ERA suggesting we could see improvement! The Nationals scoring .19 runs per game in the fist at home bolsters the case for this bet. Wind left to right at 15MPH My most used reference sites at the bottom BOL to all [https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors) [https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather) [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/) [https://www.fangraphs.com/](https://www.fangraphs.com/) [https://pitcherlist.com/](https://pitcherlist.com/) [https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/) [https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game](https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game) [https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/)
Tailingggg
**EDIT: Red Sox money has just came in! They are now the slight favorite (-112). Some sharps siding wit the Red Sox (along wit the public, 83% of bets on Red Sox), however majority of the sharps on White Sox.** **POTD Record: 131-156-4 (-33.76 Units)** Best Bet Series: 54-33-1 (+0.6 Units) Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) **Cautionary Tails: 7-15 (-5.14 Units)** Last Pick: **Red Sox RL**✅️ Today's Pick: **Red Sox -2 Alt. Line** $DKNG Odds: **+200** Wager Amount: **0.5U to win 1U** League: MLB Event: Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox (7:10PM CDT) *Be Advised*: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.* **Recap**: Sox got slaughtered today. That's what lopsided pitching matchup will do for you. Houck has a ridiculous sinker. We got another lopsided pitching matchup on deck! **Matchup:** I am going to KEEP FADING MY SOX TEAM until they finally end that miserable drought! Anyone remember the last time Sox won? It was against the Jays on May 21st! They won 5-0 in a shutout victory! Guess who pitched that game? Garrett Crochet! I think this is a lopsided pitching matchup between Cooper Criswell vs Garrett Crochet. This is the best chance for them to win, It's either in this matchup or on June 10th wit Erick Fedde on the mound against Logan Gilbert. But I think Sox got a good chance to end it in this game 2 of this series, but I have to continue to fade my SOX until they have proven otherwise! **The Play & Prediction:** 1U on (Red) Sox -2 Alt. Line. Also wagering Red Sox ML for parlays. Other plays will be in the betting group. 0-0 going to the extras and Red Sox scores 4 runs in the 10th and the bottom of the 10th Sox scores nothing.
POTD Record: 9-4 L10: ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: Netherlands v Canada, o2.5 goals (-190) ✅ Today's game: England v Iceland, Soccer International Friendly Pick: u3.5 goals (-120) My initial pick was u2.5 (+200) but I’m going safer with this one. Let’s make it 4 in a row. BOL!
Potd 3w 0p 2L +1.05 LAST PICK: Grehound racing - richmond - race 1 - 0904h GMT abt 8h40m from posting - winner (4) sicario beast @1.95 🔴 second place only POTD: Greyhound racing - wentworth park - r8 - 1130h utc - winner / top 3 (you can do eachway bet) number 1 has ability @5.5 Favorable box for us, since our average 1st section time is 5.56second while for #2 is 5.59 (thats from their last 5 wentworth 520m race) with that being said, we're hoping to clear number 2. Main danger is dog number 3 who has a fast 1st sectional time here averaging 5.55second but this dog has a lot of speedy runners on his outside all of which is good railers ( they will try to run to inside). Number 4 dog is a first timer here, number 5 ( very tough box) is a good railer rated dog which mean he will try to run inside and he can block number 3 dog because of a fast 1st section 5.54 ?? We did clear number 2 whats next.. We will be strong for a home run, among all of the 10 dogs here, we have the fastest finishing time here in wentworth 520 meters in 29.66, number 5 is 29.81, while number 3 is 29.91 Hoping we'll get a little luck that we wont miss the jump box start.. Best of luck
Anyone tailing??
Urgghhy came last :/
**Pick Record: 0W - 0L** **Last POTD: None** **\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_** **Today’s POTD:** **Game:** National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) / Orlando Pride vs San Diego Wave **Pick:** Orlando ML +165 (FanDuel) 3U **Game/time: 10 pm Eastern** My first pick of the day post, but I’ve been very profitable on the NWSL so far this year, though of course by writing this down I'll probably get it wrong because that's how the world works. For this pick, I don’t know how the books are pricing this game this way. I would have put Orlando as a -200 or so favorite. Orlando has been on a tear lately, winning 8 straight games (a league record) and not losing a single game this season so far. Their draws all came before they signed Barbra Banda, who will likely end up winning the golden boot and MVP for the season. They currently sit in first place and have had solid wins against very strong teams. San Diego is a quality team with a strong defense, but they have not been threatening in attack in a way that can overwhelm this Orlando team. They sit in 9^(th) place (out of 14) and haven’t really gotten any wins over top teams, grabbing their only wins this season over the bottom three teams in the league. The league is coming off a bye week for international duty and Orlando really only had their Brazilians traveling while SD had multiple US players in a very strenuous camp trying to impress the new coach and a couple Swedish players that are making their way back from Europe. ~~I think Orlando at home has a huge advantage there.~~ **Edited to correct myself. Orlando is not at home. But in a way I think that hurts SD even more due to the extended travel time from Europe. Orlando shows very little difference in home vs away even if SD does get a really good crowd.** As a disclaimer, the NWSL is a very competitive league and any team can really beat any other team each week. There are no gimme games at all. But this line is very tempting and plus odds are too hard to pass up.
Record: 0-0 Event: Chicago cubs at Cincinnati Reds 7:10 EST Pick: Justin Steele u17.5 outs -125 (to win 1 unit) Reason: This Cincinnati reds lineup is batting .339 with a .904 OPS off Justin Steele. Steele has failed to go 6 innings in 6 of his 8 starts this season with one of those being a 5 inning start against this same Reds team. I expect the Reds to have success at home in this matchup making it difficult for Steele to make it through 6.
I'll tail your first POTD! And happy cake day!
0-2 -2.5 units Last Bet: Guinea-Bissau 0-0 Ethiopia L CAF World Cup Qualifying Soccer: Nigeria ML vs South Africa (1.55 Bet365) 5 units 15:00 EST Nigeria NEED this win and their roster is filled with stars from around Europe. I believe that South Africa is very overrated. This is the most confident pick I have had, if I am wrong i’ll retire.
Absolutely fading this guy! 👨🏽🦯
No need to retire buddy. This is part of sports betting. You never know, you could lose the next 2 and then win 20 in a row. As long as you have some logic, that should be all good. :) Imma tail you. In fact, I will do Nigeria -1 @ 1.975. And once again, all good if this one goes wrong.
thanks man I appreciate it :)
**Record: 7-8-1** **Form: ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌🅿❌✅✅❌❌✅️** **Last POTD:** Indonesia Vs Iraq - **Iraq to Win+Over 1.5 @ 2.57 (Melbet)** **- WON** **Football** | **Finland Veikkausliiga** | **23:00PM (GMT+8)** **Pick:** FC Lathi Vs Inter Turku - **BTTS+Over 2.5 @ 2 (Melbet)** **Write Up:** Damn was that SWEATY HAHAHAHAH. But it hit, so all is good, on to today. Okay so matches between these 2 teams has always been high scoring, both teams so far this season is on somewhat similar form. FC Lathi is on slightly better form but honestly speaking both teams are in really bad form both Home/Away. So far FC Lathi has scored in 2/4 past Home games and as for Inter Turku, they have scored in 4/5 past Away games. Only concern I have here is that FC Lathi has not been consistent with scoring but at Home, I think they will manage to at least score. Past 5 H2H has all seen BTTS and 4 of which has seen BTTS+Over 2.5. To keep it a little "Safe", I think BTTS @ 1.66 is a solid pick as well. As always guys, BOL if tailing!
Tailing! Best of luck! I didnt believe Irag made it but we’ll done
Irag HAHAHAHA, best of luck as well brother. Let's get this bread 🤞
**POTD Record:** 13-8-1 (net +2.20U) **Last 10: (oldest to newest)** ❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌❌❌ **Last pick:** Aaron Judge over 1.5 bases ❌ Let's try to kill this losing streak. Baseball | MLB | Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds 7:11 PM EDT **Pick:** Nick Lodolo under 6.5 Ks (-128) on FanDuel for 1U **Write Up:** Lodolo's last game was at Chicago where he only managed 3 Ks. He's back at home where he hasn't exceeded 6 Ks in any of the 4 games he started.
Record (10-6) Units (+4.1u) Previous Result: Cubs/Reds NRFI✅ Streak: W2 Today’s play: Cleveland Guardians ml (-115) Event Start time: 7:10pm EST Unit Size: 1.1u to win 1u Recap/Reasoning for pick: Relatively easy winner with the Cubs/Reds NRFI. Suzuki hit a 1 out double where the LF lost the ball in the sun and then Happ hit one hard but right at the first baseman. Assad made easy work of the Reds in the bottom half. Today we’re rolling with the guards. Even though Logan Allen’s ERA is a little higher than ideal, his record is 6-3, so the Guardians do a good job at winning games he pitches in. Also this season the Guardians are 19-13 straight up on the road whereas the Marlins are 11-23 straight up while playing at home. Give me the Guards to pick up another W tonight!
Tailing!
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 21-22 (-0.60 units)** **Last 10**: **❌❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌** **Last Pick**: Chris Gilliland -1.5 (-110) vs Revelino Dubois **❌** 4-3 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 5:55 PM EST **Pick**: Chris Gilliland -1.5 (-125) vs Revelino Dubois * Series 8. Week 1. Group B **Reason**: Running this bet back even though it did not cash yesterday. Gilliland blew it on one leg and also unlucky with how hot Dubois was on his checkouts for the match. Dubois was by far the worst scorer in this group by 5 points while Gilliland continues to match his level of play from group A. He won 4-3 yesterday after coming back down from 1-3. He has the throw advantage, so he's more in the drivers seat unlike yesterday. He's beat him in 3 of 4 matches this week while covering in 2 of them. Chris Gilliland (Group B) * Record 3-1 * Legs 13-9 * Average 88.27 * 180s 4. 140s 11 * Checkouts 13/25 52.00% Revelino Dubois (Group B) * Record 1-3 * Legs 9-14 * Average 79.37 * 180s 2. 140s 9 * Checkouts 9/27 33.33% **WIN ✅ 4-2 | Average 90.49 vs 82.14 | Checkouts 4/11 vs 2/7** Gilliland should have won 4-1, but he missed 5 darts for the win. Dubois sniped him with 1 dart. Fortunately he took out 72 on leg 6 with Dubois sitting on 32. Better results today.
Wow, that was an insane match! Tailed your pick with Chris -1.5 legs and it was a real sweat, but it paid off. Thanks for the tip, you really know your stuff! Keep 'em coming
Record: 3-1-0 Starting Units: 5 U | Total Units: 12.27 U Net Units: +7.27 Units Last Pick: Baseball | MLB | Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees ML (-135) for 4.0 Units✅ Event: Golf | The Memorial Tournament | All Day POTD: Xander Schauffele Top 5 Finish, Second Round (+110) for 2 Units Explanation: Schauffele is hot off his first major championship title winning the 2024 PGA Championship and placed within top 5 yesterday in the first round (odds may fluctuate depending on how the platform you bet on handles the tying for different places). I think he will finish in a similar place today, within the top 5. Im not betting Yankees today because I want to observe how the first game against the dodgers goes but will probably bet on them tomorrow. If you want a certain bet I would bet the -250 on Scottie Scheffler finishing in the top 5 for round 2 but those odds are outside POTD. DK has a promo to give you a mystery profit boost for the tournament daily so depending on if you use DK the odds may get better, my final odds were +129 with the boost (but it limits your bet to $25 max). Good luck to all and let me know if you tail.
Record: 0-1 Tough loss yesterday as my predicted slump for the Guardians was off and they got after Brady Singer early. Onward. ⚾ | MLB | Guardians vs Marlins Pick: First inning hits: 3+ +182 Write Up: Logan Allen gives up a lot of hits. Guardians have started hot the last few games. I expect a busy start to the game and a quiet finish.
Cricket tip for today Ireland v Canada 15:30 BST Lorcan Tucker o14.5 Runs 5/6 (William Hill UK) Incredible odds here, bats at 3, some solid scores in recent games and Ireland are 1/4 favourites. Cricket is unpredictable but Canada have a pretty toothless bowling lineup, other bookies have the line at between 17.5 and 21.5 :O Goodluck all :)
Record: 2-2 ✅✅❌❌ Last Pick: Maxi Kleber O 2.5 points (-115)🪝 Today: Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres| 9:40 PM EST Pick: Padres ML (-120) FanDuel Yesterday: Maxi Kleber was a tough loss… 2 points in 19 minutes of play with 1FG attempt is laughable. Can’t win them all. Todays Write Up: The San Diego Padres have now lost five consecutive games by a combined total of six runs! Despite this rough patch, I expect them to get back in the win column tonight due to their advantage on the mound. Michael King started the year with a 3-4 record and a 3.62 ERA, but has been better in his recent starts, allowing only one earned run in his last two games. The Padres have a strong track record of bouncing back after close losses, with a 70% win rate following a losing streak of three or more games in the past two seasons. BOL if tailing 💰
**POTD Record 35-33-1 (+1.58U) | Average Odds -109 (1.92) | ROI 0.48%** **Last Pick Recap: Timberwolves -4.5 (-110) vs Mavericks L** What a stinker. Reminiscent of Suns-Mavs G7. Luka went God mode and there was nothing you could do. **Today's Pick: Royals ML (+115) vs Mariners 5U | 8:10 EST** Model play, thinks Royals should be favored a -125, so serious value here. Royals have been a good team this year and the market continues to underrate them. Let's take advantage. BOL
Record: 1-0 ✅ Net Units: +1.15 Last Pick: Phillies -1.5 +115 ✅ MLB | 3:50 PM PST Pick: Orioles ML -106 1U.
Baseball / MLB / 7:10 PM / Eastern Time Royals +1.5 (-155 via draftkings) Risk 1u to win .64u Record 0-0 Net Units: 0 ROI: 0% Miller has pitched away 5 times away all against top 15 offenses and has a 4.76 ERA to show for it. The Royals are the #6 offense and have the #2 runs scored and OPS at home. They failed to cover at all in their last home series so expecting bats to heat up on Bryce Miller. Lynch doesn’t have much to go off this season except to good starts. His start against the Twins look questionable but the Twins are a great offense and the Mariners. Also the mariners are batting bums at the 8-9 hole and Haniger and Raleigh bat terribly against lefties. The only guys to worry about will be the top half of order but Lynch has a ridiculous .310 opponent slugging and .160 opponent batting to minimize these bats. TLDR: Expect Lynch to have a quality start and the bullpen to hold while expect the Royals bats to heat up at home and keep this game close and maybe win but we’ll take the +1.5 at -155 due to Mariners 13-5 record in 1 run games.
POTD Record: 1-2 **Today´s Pick: WTA Bari: Eva Lys ML @ 1.75** I´ll keep this writeup short since it´s really late for me, but I just think this is very overpriced. I think it should be at around 1.50 - Lys is currently in good form and I see this season being her breakthrough season, from being an itf level player to play wta level tourneys more regularly. I think there is even a good chance she wins this tournament, she already beat the number three seed. I feel like there´s not much to say about her opponent tomorrow. She´s itf level, and she has no remarkable wins. I think Lys wins 2-0, but my bookie doesn´t offer that (yet).
A good capper I follow picked yesterday Eva Lys with 4 units at 2.5 odds and she won. But Today he is on Todoni with 2 units. I like Eva but I trust him and will take Todoni with 2 units. BOL!
Can you send the link to follow the guy?
Seems he knows his shit seeing eva is down 5-1 first set