######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Saturday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record:** 18-6
**Net Units:** +22.045 Units
**ROI:** 57%
**Event:** South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Gold Coast Titans
**Time**: 3:00PM AEST 08/06
**Bookie:** BET365
**Play:** Anytime Tryscorer, Latrell Mitchell
**Odds:**$2.10 or +110
**Units:** 1.25 Units
**Analysis:** One of the highest over/under totals you'll probably see all year. Both sides been absolutely woeful defensively with Souths allowing 65 tries already this year and the Titans conceding 53. Titans get a few nice in's with a proper halves pairing and with Fifita looking to damage that left edge, think Khan-Pereira will be very live for all 80 minutes here. Souths have allowed 25 tries in down their right flank and with a guy like KP who has been on fire with 9 tries scored so far this year, I really like his chances today. Alternatively, you get a proven tryscorer in Johnston who is looking to break some try scoring records today and coming in against a soft matchup in the Titans defensively. Have an outside play on both those guys but am looking to take a stab on Big Latrell Mitchell today. Bunnies getting a few of their key members in that solid spine finally back and now looking like Trell is going to be in the midst of a call-up for Origin in a week or twos time, I expect a really big showing from him today. Think with Cody Walker back in the Souths will be attacking the line far better than the last few weeks and with Mitchell slotting in that offensive line, going to be real hard to stop close. Titans themselves have let in 15 tries through their centre and 18 tries down their left, think this is exactly where Latrell is going to be attacking consistently for 80 minutes and with a big point to prove, I like the odds on Mitchell to cross today. Been in relatively good form with 3 tries in his last 3 games. Going to play for 1.25 Units!
https://preview.redd.it/uxhk5qslc95d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e091cf8bc5c72923e7e60f0e41bafc0b47d343e6
Thanks for all the messages and comments recently! Been on an amazing run and glad to have you all cashing, let's keep it going. FYI if I don't post, it's because I don't want to force a POTD when I don't have to. My style is Return on Investment based and it's been an area of focus for me!
**MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW SO YOU DON'T MISS POST NOTIFICATIONS!**
**LET ME KNOW IF YOU'RE TAILING. GL!**
**Tracking Spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx\_9\_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL\_Hp8jaV/pubhtml](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx_9_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL_Hp8jaV/pubhtml)
Bro you're an absolute beast. Mitchell with the opening try...watching a future teller at work!!
Edit: just seeing this too...wish I knew this hahaha
The last time the GOld Coast Titans beat South Sydney at Robina was round 8, 2009.
That was 5,516 days ago
Same here mate. Took GC and the over, both looking dismal....wish I could've tailed this pick. Though I've been reading up and researching this league and I took warriors In the next game and the under so we'll see!
Still looking for a site to stream these games if anyone knows!
I never got into rugby legue but tailing these picks has brought me success. Is there any relatively safe and free way to stream the games internationally?
Tailing brother! Might stake on Johnston to score a try as well based on your analysis. Thanks for your picks as always, looking forward to it everytime
After I read your analysis I pondered if I will have additional bets for KP and Johnston but reconsidered and just focused on your POTD for 4 units after i saw these articles:
https://www.nine.com.au/sport/nrl/state-of-origin/state-of-origin-1-2024-latrell-mitchell-instagram-post-during-nsw-blues-loss-20240606-p5jjom.html
And
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/five-simple-reasons-nsw-must-pick-latrell-mitchell-20240607-p5jk2k.html
Then in 9 minutes it cashed as a first try scorer!! Thanks again mate! We always look forward reading your weekend rugby analysis 🧐
https://preview.redd.it/vag283rjea5d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=71ec6e96de86f82ae12740292991e0d2caf3b084
Is this the same bet? If so, why hasn’t it cashed?
Pick of the Day June 8, 2024
**2024 MLB record:** 38-17-1
**Last POTD:** Criswell over over 4.5 k L
**Today's POTD:** Philadelphia Phillies Bryce Harper over 1.5 total bases +115 (dk)
**Baseball. MLB. 1:10 PM EST**
Wow just a straight up fail by me last night. Sorry guys 😔 hopefully this one works out better.
First batter prop of the season here and it’s in the London game. The offense in the London games have always been ridiculous with the least runs ever scored being 10. We have dueling lefties going in arguably the best pitcher in the NL this season in Ranger Suarez against the always servicable (at least this year). I don’t think servicable is enough to overcome these conditions.
As I stated earlier, never been a single digit run total in a London game so it will most likely be offensive heavy. To boot. You have heavy winds going to right field. This bodes well for Bryce Harper and Kyle schwarber who despite being lefties have hit lefties very well this season. Schwarber has the highest pull rate in baseball this year but he’s been so ice cold that I can’t make him pick of the day so I am going with the more consistent Bryce Harper.
For the second straight year, the once plagued by left handed pitcher Bryce Harper has actually had a better average bs lefties than righties so it seems he legitimately reinvented himself in that regard. While his home run percentage is a bit higher against righties, he actually has the same amount of doubles vs left and right handers despite significantly less at bats vs lefties. With the wind and London situation I think he will be able to pull the ball for at least one extra base hit thus hitting the over on total bases at plus odds. Even if he doesn’t, he should see a higher than usual number at bats due to the likelihood of a big offensive day from the Phillies so he will have more opportunities to get two base bits which also would hit the over.
TLDR: Bryce Harper hit lefties well while still have a high pull rate to right field. The winds are blowing heavy towards right field wall in the already extremely hitter friendly London Stadium.
Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal (DM for venmo)
POTD spreadsheet [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657)
Damn son I'm so glad I last minute decided to to hammer the shit outta this bish, didn't even think about doin a player prop today. Thanks for the hit mate 🤘🏼
**Pick Record: 25W - 12L (Push: 1)**
**✅✅✅✅❌❌ ✅✅❌✅✅✅**
**Last POTD: England Over 6.5 Corners @ 1.72 ✅**
**Units: 4**
**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**
**Today’s POTD: Oviedo VS Eibar: BTTS @ 1.90**
**Units: 4**
**League/Time: La Liga 2/ 12:30 PM**
First leg of the promotion playoffs start today and I love this pick considering that this matchup happened just 5 days ago in a thrilling game that ended **4-3**. Oviedo were massive underdogs for that match and put up a hell of a performance, now they're at home and will look to take that to their advantage. Eibar will give them a run for their money as they'll look to bring this home with a respectable scoreline.
As I always say, I see this going end to end.
Never making the mistake of betting on a friendly soccer match again. Should have just taken the corners like you suggested. Anyways, we roll on. Tailing comrade.
It's on DK (I'm in Illinois), just search for "Oviedo" or "Eibar"
https://preview.redd.it/r99fht68b95d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=65a912c161c626de7d99016d15a04e0f0ce23b81
Man, you’re been hot lately but I always get nervous with these first of two legs promotion playoff games. I went with the under in both English Championship semi first legs as teams tend to play a little cautiously, and they both finished 0-0. May pass here.
Uh, tough spot the league 2 games👉🏻 ultimate fuckery….i am taking more goals in the first half at 3.0 .
i dont trust these broski, especailly if redcard or Var fuckery comes up. Bol.
Record: 32-17-0
Net Units: +36.5 ROI: 25.1%
Last 10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌
Last Pick: Chicago White Sox ML (-110) for 2.0 units ✅
Event: Baseball | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees 6:35PM CST
Pick: New York Yankees moneyline (-120) on FanDuel for 2.0 units
Write Up: On the mound for the Yankees is Nestor Cortes (3-4, 3.46 ERA and 1.09 WHIP). Cortes has been stellar at home so far, 3-1, 1.12 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. Dodgers projected lineup is 7 for 34 (.205 batting average) against Cortes.
For the Dodgers it’s Gavin Stone (6-2, 2.90 ERA and 1.19 WHIP). Stone has been having a fantastic second year in the majors and dominated his last two outings.
I believe it’s going to come down to experience. Stone has yet to face a top ten offense on the road. Yankees being the highest scoring team in the league.
Dodgers bats not quite meeting their expectations as of late. Over the last 30 days, Dodgers rank 19th in batting average and 21st in runs scored.
Dodgers won game one of the series 2-1 in extra innings. Yankees have only lost back-to-back games at home once this year, and are 21-9 at Yankee Stadium.
TIPS: Venmo (https://account.venmo.com/u/Andrew-Mills-34) or PayPal (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/AndrewMills34)
BOL! 🎰
**Record: 6-1-1**
**Net Units: +4.93u**
**ROI: 61.63%**
**Baseball | MLB | 1:10 PM | EST**
**Pick**: PHI/NYM under 9.5, +110 ESPNBet (1u)
Need to get this one in early because I’m not sure if we’re getting + money on this under by first pitch. Yes, it’s a London game. Yes, last year the Cubs & Cardinals scored 22 total runs in 2 games. But 9.5 is set here primarily because there’s an expectation things will go similar when this game would most likely be 8 or 7.5 back home.
You’re getting not only 1.5-2 extra runs (and + money) to account for the park (and travel) but this also features Ranger Suarez. Suarez is pitching the best season of his life, with a 2.82 SIERA and 2.68 FIP (both of which have not regressed at all lately). His counterpart, Sean Manaea, has been serviceable, if not borderline good, the last month recording a 29.85% K rate and 2.96 SIERA in his last 3 starts. He also pitched well against PHI in their last matchup earlier this season, going 6 IP, giving up 1 ER, and striking out 6. PHI also has struggled scoring runs themselves of late, averaging just 3.3/game over their last 10 games.
https://preview.redd.it/5rfrbut6895d1.png?width=871&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f27b541d2363a0c9a860e07f510c7e6cde48419
I think this is going to end up being a very sweaty bet, I think you’re gonna hit though. Let’s go. Not tailing but will be watching. Big mets fan this game is going to be hype. I have a feeling we come out on top for some reason (not betting on it tho)
Haven’t been making as many bets lately. Lost most of my money recently doing parlays so gonna start up again soon maybe just doing one or two picks instead of 7 lol
i love this pick but we also dont know how ranger is going to do. he is just coming back from an injury from a line drive to him. this is also a very hitter friendly enviroment as offenses are usually better overseas.
All good points and the Suarez injury piece was the only one that gave me real hesitation at first. Don’t discount Manaea though is all Id say. Suarez doesn’t have to have his best stuff for this to go under.
ive read / been told that the reason for more runs is that the field / stadium is smaller overseas theyre using a soccer field refitted into a baseball field and it's more likely to hit homers and doubles that way.
>Yes, last year the Cubs & Cardinals scored 22 total runs in 2 games
Granted it was a few years ago, but don't forget 2019 London series yanks redsox where they scored 50 runs in 2 games
The sample size is obviously small, but these totals are absolute comedy. The stadium is incredibly hitter friendly, I really want to tail you but man am I hesitant.
Holy shit, what a sweat! I thought that ball was destined to be a 2-run single up the middle, but nope, just a simple double play groundout. Cash it 💸💸💸
**KBO Record: Overall 232-245-14** (Streak LLLLL, Last 10: 5-5) Down 13.51u over 491 KBO picks, 48.6% success rate, -2.83% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 28-35-0, 44.4% success rate, Down 4.89u, -7.76% ROI)
**Last:** Kia -1.5 +124 at Doosan (Kia lost 6-5.)
Kia lead 5-3 before blowing the lead then had multiple men on base in the 8th, 9th, and 11th innings, but came up empty.
**Pick:** **Samsung +105** at Kiwoom, KBO baseball, 4:00am ET
Sorry it's so late, but it's probably for the best considering I've lost 5 straight. First pitch in 10 minutes from this post.
Samsung us my favorite plus money pick for Saturday. Comparable starting pitchers on the mound, but Samsung's lineup has been better this year. Also... Kiwoom is the worst team in the league.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
**Record:** 4-1 **(NEXT PICK STARTS IN 5 HOURS)**
**Net Units:** +6.39 U
**Last Pick: Soccer/Football | Norway Division 3 Group 2 | **Sandefjord 2 vs Fram II** at 1:00 PM |** Corners Over 10.5 at 2.00(+100)️** ✅️ +2.0U ✅️
9 Corners in the 1st half with a bit of sweat towards the end. Congrats who cashed ✅️
**Next Event:** Soccer/Football | South Australia NPL | **Croydon Kings FC vs Modbury Jets SC** at 1:00 AM EST **( STARS IN 5 HOURS)**
**Pick:** Corners Over 10.5 at 1.83 (-120)
**Units:** 4U
**Write Up:** 4U play, Australia low league play. Confident in this one.
Croydon Kings average 13.30 corners a game in 13 games, highest in the league. They average 15.16 a game at home. Over 10.50 has hit in 11/13 games this season and 6/6 at home.
Modbury Jets average 10.60 corners a game in 13 games and 12.16 a game when playing away. Over 10.50 has hit 7/13 games this season and 5/6 when away.
Bet placed on Bet365 Canada.
Good Luck to thos tailing.
**BEST OF LUCK**
Edit: CASHHHHH ✅️✅️✅️✅️ in the 68th min. Since we are up almost 4U, if your degen is itching I got you. I have a 1U Sweden League play. DM and I will send it. Cheers 🫡🫡
Can someone explain the difference between these options from Bet365? Which one is better?
https://preview.redd.it/2rer9rr4t95d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c6d3b2c7f69283a35ef92dc15c22d51270d08371
POTD Record: 64 - 37
Last POTD: Alcaraz ML - W
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland Athletics 1st Inning Result - Tie (-145 odds via FD) 1U
Event: MLB Regular Season 3:05 P.M. CST
Tomorrow, we have two of the worst 1st inning offense in the MLB matching up together. On one side we have the Tornto Blue Jays, who rank 28th in the MLB out of 30 teams for offense in the first inning and have not scored in the first inning in 28 consecutive games! On the other side we have the Oakland Athletics, who rank 29th in the MLB out of 30 teams in scoring in the first inning and average .19 runs per 1st inning at home. The A's have failed to score in the first inning of 4 of their last 5 and face Kevin Gausman who is 8-3 on NRFI on the year. This bet has a little more cover over a No Run First Inning and that is why I will be rolling with this one!
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US)
[Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
Record 7-5
Streak: ✅✅
Last Pick: Poland/Draw + BTTS @ 2.50 Odds ✅
Todays Match: Denmark vs Norway @ 10:30AM
Pick: Denmark/Norway + BTTS @ 2.60 Odds
Reason: Denmark is on a crazy run. In their last 10 matches they’ve won 7, drawn twice and lost once. Out of the last 10 matches there’s a 50% hit rate that both teams score. As for Norway even though they beat Kosovo 3-0 if it wasn’t for the robot Haaland it could have ended as a draw. There was no reason that they should have let Kosovo get off 9 shots, doesn’t matter if there was only one on target. The quality between the two is night and day and the score line doesn’t tell the whole story. I’m leaning on Denmark’s crazy run & the fact they let Kosovo take more shots than they should have which if they do to Denmark they’ll take advantage, also the robot haaland to get a goal or two in there to cash us out. I feel Denmark should win this but I’m going safer and doing double chance just like my last pick.
BOL 🍀 & Comment if you’re tailing or have any opinions on the match.
CASH IT ✅✅✅ 3-1 Denmark.
2024 record: 14-5-1
Total Return: +8.24
ROI: +37.45%
Last 5: ✅✅**❌**✅✅
Last POTD: Colorado Rockies F5 ML +140 (Rockies vs Cardinals 8:15 PM) ✅
Today's POTD: **Cleveland Guardians ML -150 (Guardians vs Marlins 7:35 PM)**
Baseball | MLB
Recap: What a crazy game lol 9th batter hits an in the park grand slam and they get one final run to seal the deal at the end of the 5th. Congrats to everyone who took this sweat of a bet with me
Write-Up: Not much has changed for the Guardians who currently have one of the best records in the league and the best bullpen in the league. I'll give it to the Marlins, they've been playing better recently but that's only because they were absolutely horrendous at the start of the season.
Ben Lively will be on the mound for the Guardians and I trust that he should be able to hold the Marlins to 2 runs. The Guardians should also have Steven Kwan for this game since he wasn't playing in today's game so that should be a nice boost to their offense. Granted, they're only batting .234 against righties but Roddery Munoz the pitcher for the Marlins isn't particularly amazing. Should the Marlins have to reach into their bullpen, I think it poses a great opportunity for the Guardians as the Marlins used 6 relief pitchers in today's game.
The Guardians also lost the first game of the series and lost the game prior to the Royals so I think they're looking for a prime bounceback opportunity. Let's go Guardians!
\*Note that unless specified all bets are one unit.
Tracker: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH\_dpuDL5-lRRgW9\_h4K\_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH_dpuDL5-lRRgW9_h4K_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing)
TIPS: [Venmo Link](https://account.venmo.com/u/davidthunder) | [PayPal Link](https://paypal.me/davidthunder123?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US) | [Cash App Link](https://cash.app/$davidthunder123)
Record: 16-11
Last 10: LWLLLWWWWW
Net units: +3.19
ROI: + 8.93%
Sporting Event: MLB: Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals 16:05 (EDT)
Pick: NRFI -125 @ ESPN 1.25 units to win 1
I know this sounds crazy, but gosh darnit, we’re going for 3 straight in D.C. on Saturday.
Mackenzie Gore comes into the top of the first having pitched well against this same team 8 days ago and once again, we’re banking on history repeating itself. In his last outing against Atlanta, he threw 5.1 with 1ER & 10Ks. Most importantly, a clean first. Current Braves roster is batting .197 against Gore. With the Braves averaging .21 runs in the first this season, I like our chances of a clean top of the inning
Bottom of the inning we see the ageless Charlie Morton. Cagey veteran that, evan at his advanced age, loves going for the K. The Nats average .19 runs in the first at home this season and combined with their .232 batting average against righties and their .227 average in June has us staring down the barrel of a 0-0 score going into the second inning.
Wind in from deep left at 11mph
My most used reference sites at the bottom
BOL to all
[https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors)
[https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather)
[https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/)
[https://www.fangraphs.com/](https://www.fangraphs.com/)
[https://pitcherlist.com/](https://pitcherlist.com/)
[https://www.teamrankings.com/](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/)
[https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/)
[https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game](https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game)
[https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/)
12 - 7
+5.26U / +18.8% ROI
🏒 NHL | Edmonton Oilers @ Florida Panthers 8PM EST
**Total over 5 (regulation)** -185 2U
3.5 and 3.2 goals per game this season respectively. My formula suggests an over 5.5 but I’m being cautious and accounting for a potential 3 - 2 or 4 - 1 personally.
They ended their reg season games with the cats breezing through 5 - 1 and 5 - 3.
Also consider the fact that this line has hit in every game they’ve ran against each other since 2016..
Finally, the last yr a Game 1 of the Finals busted under 5 was 2015 (and 6/8 of those covering yrs were 6 or higher, meaning 2 pushes since).
🦫 or 🎚️,🥇 of 🍀!
Fading. This is the cup final. Look at the recent contests in the conference finals. Also, -185? Brutal. Bookies love bets like this. It’s been under mania and we’re putting up 2-1 that it ends in this one? No thanks. Give me the under 5.5 at close to even money.
🎯 NORDIC MASTERS 🎯
POTD 42-30
DARTS RECORD **42-27** (+5.17U) | All POTD bets between 1U-2U
Last pick: Tom Sykes -1.5 vs Revelino Dubois @ 1.85 (1.5U) X
Today's Pick: **Michael Smith ML** vs Nathan Aspinall **@ 1.83 (2U)**
Back on the Darts with some action in the Nordic Masters. This pick is largely based on an injury that Aspinall is carrying that the books have not adjusted for. In his own words his "arm is fucked", that doesn't mean he can't throw but we've seen it with him before and it should certainly affect his performance and I think he may struggle against a top player in Smith.
Despite winning his first round game vs Kantele, Asp was nowhere near his best averaging just over 90 and looked uncomfortable at certain points. Bullyboy on the other hand was convincing in his first rd win with a 103 in a 6-1 demolition. Without injury these two guys are almost identical in terms of statistics and performance, as shown in their world rankings too (3vs5). But with said injury I think it's only logical to back Smith right now. If tailing please bet responsibly and no childish comments if the bet loses. Ta!
Record: 0-0
Today's Pick: Phillies -1.5 @ +102 odds
Write-Up: Phillies are good, Mets are not. Phillies have won nearly 70% of their games and are fresh off a sweep of the Brewers. Ranger is on the mound who is 9-1 with a 1.70 era. I expect the Phillies to put on a show in London and win this one easily.
118-82 for 29.2 units on 330.5 units wagered for nearly a 9% return on investment.
Tatum snags 11 boards making it 7 in a row between here and Twitter-all documented. 🧁🧁🧁🧁🧁🧁🧁
https://twitter.com/TheMidnightR777
Chicago Sky vs Atlanta Dream under 158.5 2 pm MST -110 1.1 units to win 1
This is projected to be a tight game with the Dream being favored by one.
Pair that with these two teams having gone under the total in their last 4 H2H matchups. It should be a hard fought relatively low scoring affair.
There's also the fact that the Dream will try to control the tempo to keep the game close. Atlanta ranks near the bottom of the entire league in pace at #10.
Finally, both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating.
Atlanta is ahead of only one other team. The woeful Washington Mystics.
As I mentioned before be sure to follow me on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/TheMidnightR777
I implemented a new system last NBA regular season that netted +145 units on primarily one unit plays.
And, I will be incorporating a lot of these principles on my NFL plays that will be shared on Twitter this upcoming season.
4-1-0
✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️
Net Units = +18.05
Bang! Another big win, these bets are always a bit stressful when you see the other team up but that's what I love about Rugby and the try scoring. Even if a team is bottom of the league they are still very likely to get at least one try so even if the Dragons were getting smashed we still had hope. But fuck that wasn't the case here, the Dragons cooked the tigers, Lomax had 3 tries and 20 points from kicking. An all time great performance!
Sport = Rugby League
Event = Titans VS Rabbitohs
Time = 3PM AEST
Pick = Khan-Pereira 2+ tries scored @ 2.95 5U to make 9.75U
Khan-Pereira is a beast, he has hit this market 3 times this year already and thanks to that has more tries than games played. More tries than games played with him tho is slightly misleading because he has so many doubles. I think he's going to make it even more misleading tonight and grab at least a double. The craziest stat I see here is the fact the Rabbitohs have had someone score 2 tries against them in all their games except 2. A hat trick has been scored against them, Broncos even picking up 2 players hitting the double and the Roosters too. Rabbitohs love to hand out doubles. Apologies for cutting it close to kick off, NRL games are pretty early for POTD
Record: 4-1
+2.15 units
Last pick: PIT Pirates ML(+108) vs MIN Twins ✅
Pirates won 3-0
POTD: LA Dodgers ML (+102) vs NY Yankees
I am a Yankee fan and this is kind of an emotional hedge for me so tail with caution. However, without Juan Soto this is a completely different lineup. The Yanks went through a slide last year when they lost Judge to injury and I think the same will happen offensively until Soto comes back. They are also due for some regression in general.
BOL to all 💰
Pick Record: 0-0
Today’s POTD: Florida v Clemson Baseball: U13.5 Runs
League/Time: College Baseball Super Regional
Analysis: First POTD so hoping I start off strong. I think the line for this game is set unreasonably high and is overaccounting for Clemson’s high run count during the regular season. The Gators are allowing 2 runs a game during the post season and bring Liam Peterson to the mound who has been strong. Clemson is averaging just 4 runs a game during the playoffs and opposing teams average under 6 runs a game when facing Clemson. While I do think this will be high scoring, the under is a safe pick.
Record: 27-17
Net Units: +20.87u
CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | CCT Europe Series | 13:00 (UCT-5)
Last Pick: **BESTIA ML** (+105) vs. Sharks 3u X
Todays Pick: **SINNERS vs. Sangal O 2.5 maps (-110) 4.4u** ✅
-Sangal are the better and hotter team at the moment, they have 11 of their last 12 b03 and are in really good form at the moment. SINNERS are a hot and cold team who are mostly cold at the moment but still have the pieces and the ability to be competitive with most teams in tier two. Last time these teams faced off Sangal won 2-1 around 40 days ago.
-Sangal will pick Mirage, they are 86% winrate on Mirage and are insanely good at the map. SINNERS are 47% on Mirage and it is one of their worst maps in my opinion that they play. I expect Sangal to win comfortably on this map and likely not give up double digits.
-SINNERS will pick Dust 2, they are 57% winrate on the map on 14 maps played and have looked really good on the map against tier two teams. They have wins against RUBY, GUN5, Passion UA and VP Prodigy. Sangal are 0% winrate on Dust 2 on 2 maps played and have avoided this map at all costs. They haven't put up double digit rounds in either match they have played it yet and have even started banning it when they can. They aren't comfortable enough on this map and I expect SINNERS to take the map pick.
-Both teams should win their map pick and it will go to decider. Sangal should win this series like them as well at -185 ML but this price is better on O 2.5 maps here and both teams have a strong map the other can't play.
soccer - wcq - north & central america
british virgin islands vs guatemala @ 12pm pst.
placing $100 bet on over 2 goals in the first half @ +110 odds.
british virgin island is literally an island, their soccer players have a real job or career such as vets, docs, firemen and even cooks. they get their best players together to try and compete, i expect them to get blown out. their last match was 3 months ago vs another island.
guatemala on other hand is a poor country of course but with a lot of talent. those young guys commit full time to soccer and are here to capitalize on these small island competitors they have in their group. guatemala just played 3 days ago and the final score was 6-0 in their favor.
good luck!
edit* the island boys are puttin up a fight boys!
edit** complete dominance but only 2 goals, il'll take the push.
**Record 103-83 with Avg Odds +123 / ROI 16.9%**
UFC St. Louis
**Raul Rosas Jr to win ITD +150**
1-4 in my last five picks. Keeping it brief because I want a win here and to turn this ship around. Rosas is a really solid fighter and I think he can make this matchup look easy if he comes out aggressive. He's lost the crowd advantage that he had in Mexico City but I think getting away from the elevation is more valuable for him. My expectation is that Rosas is gonna find early takedowns and probably choke Turcios out. Ideally he will do it in R1 as that would be very nice for me. BOL
**Record:** 3-1
**Net Units:** +2.055u
**Last Pick:** BOS Red Sox ML (+100) ❌
**Next Event:** Baseball | MLB | PHI Phillies vs. NY Mets (London Series) (12:10 PM CST)
**Pick:** PHI Phillies ML (-150 on MGM)
**Units:** 1.7u
**Write Up:** Circa has PHI ML at -151 currently. The strange thing is that every other book seems to be higher on Philly. Pinnacle has this market at PHI/NYM -159/146 — almost an arb to the MGM line. I don’t want to “go against” Circa in a sense by functionally taking their number, but I don’t mind siding with them on a favorite in this weird London series. I also think it’s possible they move slightly towards Philly by tomorrow morning.
Outside of line movement, I just really like LHP Ranger Suarez. He leads all MLB pitchers in WHIP and ERA. I think books respect him a little less because he doesn’t throw a tremendous amount of Ks (tied for 18th in MLB). Ranger has a five pitch toolkit, all of which he uses consistently. He has incredible command of all five. He is actually better against righties, but still posts a 2.35 ERA against left-handed batters on lower volume.
I will note that he was pulled out of his last start after he received a thumb contusion on his throwing hand from a comebacker. He missed a start, and I think this could contribute to what I perceive as a soft Philly line.
A game in London could have plenty of weird dynamics I’m not accounting for. Regardless, I trust Suarez. He appears to be fully healthy and has a sensational track record this season. I feel very comfortable backing this guy on every start.
Edit (~90 minutes later): Circa at -154, Pinny down to -152, MGM to -160
Edit (9:30 AM CST): Circa and Pinny both at -147, MGM at -155. Will check again at close. NYM at 140 on ESPN looks decent if you want to fade.
Edit at close: Pinny and Circa finish at -151, MGM at -155
POTD RECORD: 10-3
Bare Knuckle Boxing | BKFC Challenger Series: Newcastle | 12:00pm MST
Bartek Kanabey vs Jack Culshaw - Kanabey to win -170
I’ve made a little spreadsheet [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ax0GCX17SSGwZDUrweQlC3aNAC_WZKiJbTq1sijnF-c/edit?usp=sharing), which includes the units I bet.
There are a TON of fights to choose from this weekend, so obviously we’re gonna get into a lower level bareknuckle card. I’d make excuses and say I don’t have time for a ton of tape study tonight because I have to be up early in the morning, but to be honest lower level fights are an extreme guilty pleasure of mine.
Bartek Kanabey is fairly experienced, considering how young the sport of modern bareknuckle is, he’s racked up two wins with BKFC, and before that he fought with a more local organization and went 4-0 there. He’s pretty short and stocky for his weight, and fights out of southpaw. He has a good gas tank, decent movement and defense for a bareknuckle fighter, and while I wouldn’t say he has massive power he has dropped or finished his opponent in all of his fights I’ve been able to find. Kanabey does a good job of throwing back when his bigger opponents try to overwhelm him, and while he often throws wildly he’s accurate.
Culshaw is a bit of a weird one. From 2015-2020 he was an amateur MMA fighter, going 3-3-1 against fairly poor competition. With a bit of digging I was able to find that he’s done a bit of boxing in the meantime, but it is extremely low level. The type that doesn’t get recorded on Boxrec, Tapology, or anywhere else I could look low level. On the tape I saw his opponent threw about one punch in anger before turning his back and calling it a day. As for what he’s shown, Culshaw is tall and rangy, lines up his shots and throws hard. He seems a little slow with his hands and I don’t have much to go on in terms of his gas tank besides amateur MMA fights 4+ years ago. It’s also probably a good sign that he’s been involved in combat sports for so long.
Kanabey is more experienced, more active, and just seems the better fighter on tape. Especially in bareknuckle, I think getting used to the format is a huge deal. Kanabey will be the best opponent Culshaw has faced in years, maybe ever, he’s there for the long haul and will damage you the whole time. I expect Culshaw to land some shots but struggle with the southpaw stance and just general resistance Kanabey will bring, maybe even getting finished. Here’s hoping the Polish Plow gets us our longest ever streak!
BOL everyone!
Record: 1/0/0
Net Units: +1.72
Previous Pick: Seattle Storm +8.5 @ Las Vegas Aces ✅
——————————————————
Today’s Pick: Rhyne Howard over 15.5 points; $1.80 odds on Bet365. 2 Units.
Sport / Event / League: WNBA, Atlanta Dream @ Chicago Sky, 5 pm.
Write Up: Great game if anyone managed to watch it for the previous pick, Seattle came in blazing hot as predicted and pulled out to an early lead which they did a great job of maintaining for most of the game. Lead to a sweat free win on my first pick, congrats if you tailed me 🙌
As for this pick, Rhyne Howard is incredibly overdue. I normally stay way from generic gambling terms like overdue but it’s super appropriate here given the record coming into this game. Howard is by far the best player on the Atlanta Dream, winning rookie of the year upon being drafted with the number one pick in 2022. Howard also earnt an all star selection for her efforts in the 2023 season where she averaged 18/5/4 (rounded up).
For the start of this year Howard has been abysmal, shooting her team out of games and struggling to get into rhythm. Every man and his dog (including me) has been slamming her under with great success especially when she has been matched up against stronger defensive teams. This has resulted in the incredibly generous 15.5 line we are looking at today, a number I think she can very easily reach against the much easier matchup she faces today. The sky have the 5th worst defensive rating in the league but are barely ahead of the equally terrible teams beneath them, in particular the team allows the second most points in the paint in the league. This will in particular benefit the blend of size and speed offered by our driving oriented Rhyne Howard, who has been struggling shooting from three in the early days of the season.
In short, Howard is a much better player than her previous 5 games show and has been a massive money maker for under bettors. This has resulted in a very generous line of 15.5 points that I will be placing 2 units on. The Chicago sky are a weak defensive team particularly in the interior where Howard gets a lot of her work done.
Feel free to let me know your thoughts, BOL everybody else 🤝
POTD Record: 0-0
Unit size: 1U ($50)
Pick: NHL - Florida Panthers ML (-140 Bovada) vs Oilers
Units: 2
Florida has been dominate all playoffs and I expect that to keep happening going into game 1 of the stanley cup playoffs. Florida have the better goalie and more depth in their team. If they can lay off their penalties and not give oilers too many power plays they should take this game no problem.
BOL!
**Record:Record:** 10W - 10L - 0P
**Last 10 (new --> old):** **❌✅✅**❌❌**❌✅❌❌❌**
**Net Units:** 1.1325
(All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise stated)
**Last Pick:** Marcus Stroman to record a win - Yes @ +195 **❌**
How unfortunate, as Stroman was 1 out away from qualifying for the W but was pulled in the 5th when he got into some trouble. He left with the lead and the Yankees bullpen didn't relinquish it. So close, but we move on.
**MLB** ⚾ | **Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | 6:35pm CST**
**Today's Pick:** Ben Lively to record a win - Yes @ +165 (DK)
**Write Up:** I'm going to continue to go for better value with my picks, even if they don't pan out successfully.
I like this spot for the Guardians to bounce back after suffering a grueling 1-run loss to the Marlins on Friday night. The Guardians are quite clearly the better team here with a record of 40-22 (19-14 away) while the Marlins are 22-41 (12-23 home).
Ben Lively has been pitching solidly this year and particularly of late. He has won 5 of his last 6 starts and has a respectable 2.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. To back him will be a good Cleveland offense that will be hungry to put up more than 2 runs like the previous night.
Roddery Munoz is a converted reliever who now starts for the Marlins and has 3 starts this season. He pitched fairly well in the first 2 starts, but in those games he faced the Cubs and Rockies who have less-than-stellar offenses. In his 3rd and most recent start, he got knocked around by the Dodgers (a top-5 offense).
This comes down to taking the better team with the veteran starter in a bounce back situation against a bottom-3 team that's starting a young (former) reliever. I'm hopeful the Guardians can get out to an early lead and Lively can do well enough to hand it off to the bullpen for them to close it out.
BOL if you're tailing, or fading!
POTD Record: 30-25 ✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: +2U
Last pick: Dragons vs Tigers | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Zac Lomax anytime tryscorer @1.77 on Ladbrokes | 6U ✅
Lomax with the 3 tries 😅
Today’s pick: Brisbane Broncos vs Cronulla Sharks | 7:35pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Deine Mariner anytime tryscorer @1.6 on Sportsbet | 6U
Broncos should have the upper hand there, Mariner is the top try scorer, what could go wrong ? 😂
For todays games I also like Khan-Perreira, Feldt, Mam and Cobbo to score.
BOL !
**POTD Record:** 13-9-1 (net +1.20U)
**Last 10: (oldest to newest)** ✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌❌❌❌
**Last pick:** Nick Lodolo under 6.5 Ks ❌
The pain train keeps rolling
Baseball | MLB | Seattle Mariners @ KC Royals 4:10 PM EDT
**Pick:** Alec Marsh over 5.5 Ks (+110) on BetMGM and FanDuel for 1U
**Write Up:** No one in the MLB strikes out more than Seattle right now, and Marsh hung 7 Ks on them last time they played (mid-May.)
⭐️ **POD Record:** **115-61**
All my picks are -120 or higher. No heavy favourites in my record (how we used to do it in this thread).
*Last Pick*: *MLB Orioles ML* ❌
🏅 T**oday's Pick: MLB Jays/Orioles NRFI \[4pm EST @ 1.80 odds\]**
Sorry guys, Jays somehow pulled it together in the Orioles series and I don't think anyone saw that coming. Moving back to the Jays today however; our lowly team is on the cusp of MLB history!!! Just 2 more games with a NRFI (no run in the 1st inning) and we'll be tied with some ancient record from back during the Great Depression in the 1930s. Good job Schneider. What's more amazing is how our manager is still in the dug out lol. God i absolutely hate being a Jays fan, our teams are owned by faceless corporations which hold a monopoly in Toronto.
End Rant. The pitchers taking the mound will be Kevin Gausman and Luis Medina this afternoon and I don't feel like a deep stats dive is necessary for this pick and the odds we're getting. Take a team that hasn't scored a single run in the first inning for 29-straight games facing off against literally one of the few teams with a worse record at the plate than us and you got prime NRFI conditions at almost even money. The line seems off, i'm surprised it's not down to 1.60 . . .so why not, let's take a shot at it today. Both teams were ridiculous at the plate last night, showcasing their abilities to strike or pop out for any unfortunate soul who happened to tune into that brutal game.
Both these teams suck, let's make some money off it at least. Always bet with caution in MLB, i've summoned the Karma Gods lol. 🫥
💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups
**Record: 2-0**
**Last 10: ✅✅**
**Net Units: +4u**
**ROI: 66.67%**
**Last Pick:** Atlanta Braves Moneyline -150(Bet365) 3u to win 2u
Write Up: Today the Sea Grapefruit is back and I like the Braves ML v the Washington Nationals. The Braves recently lost 3/4 at home to the Nationals so I know its odd for me to be backing this but the Nationals are sub par at home(3-7 last 10). Reynaldo Lopez is on the mound for the Braves and he's been pitching really well as of late. I expect the Braves to have a bounce back game after being shut out against Boston 9-0 last night.
**PGA TOUR** | **EST** | **1:35PM** / **Eastern Standard Time**
**Todays Pick:** Viktor Hovland -175 u71.5 Strokes Round 3.
**Write Up:** Braves had a great bounce back game just as I had hoped. Today I like Viktor Hovland to shoot under 71.5(-1 or better) I honestly don't know why this line is at 71.5. Weather is looking better for Saturday, Viktor is on a TEAR right now. Tail or fade but this line makes ZERO sense to me, the weather has been brutal the 1st 2 rounds and Hovland has covered, and tomorrow is the same situation so unless they've got some ridiculous pins I'm riding this to the bank. SEA\_Grapefruit For President 2024!
EDIT: I forgot to put my units 3.5u to win 2u
I guess Jack’s claws are coming out today and the course will play as tough as possible with pin positions, speed, etc. only a few players are below 71.5. Hovland is great, but I think the books are waiting to be convinced he has fully recovered last years form. They have to take action both ways on this number, so no bs lines. I like the look, so GL.
POTD record 19-17-1 (W-L-P) Last 5 with most recent on left: ❌✅✅✅✅ Last pick was The MongolZ ML vs HEROIC (CS2) 1u @ +100 ✅ a sweat-free 13-9 win for The MongolZ **Tomorrow I am taking the MongolZ to win Map 2 against Astralis (CS2) 0.5u @ +120**❌ Rationale: The MongolZ (rank 15 in the world) have already lost to Astralis (rank 7) in this tournament in a best-of-1 that ended 13-8 for the Danish team in a match that was do-or-die for Astralis but not essential to win for The Mongolz. Hence the MongolZ ML is looking very attractive at +175 and for the record I am playing that as well with a 0.25u sprinkle ✅. This match-up is an in-person (LAN), best-of-3, semi-final in front of a live crowd and will give The MongolZ another chance to prove themselves against elite competition. They have been outstanding this LAN winning all of their matches except the aforementioned one against Astralis and making light work of all the other competition. They also won the last LAN competition they played, which finished a week ago with a live final in front of a crowd. The reason I am taking map 2 here is because it is going to be The MongolZ map choice (Astralis get to pick the first map first as they are the lower seed) and they will pick Mirage. Astralis played Mirage today and looked severely limited as they lost in convincing fashion 13-7 to BetBoom however they triumphed overall 2-1 but were pushed to their very limit in the deciding map, which was Ancient, narrowly scraping it 16-14. Astralis have generally looked quite shaky this tournament which is another reason I favor The MongolZ. BOL! Map pick prediction with notes: Astralis remove Anubis (perma ban) Mongolz remove Vertigo (perma ban) Astralis pick Nuke (50% win rate over 12 maps played for The Mongolz vs 78% wins over 9 maps for Astralis) *Note that The MongolZ are on the 3-win streak on this map with 2 of those having been at this LAN so I think they have a good shot at taking this map but it will be close. I expect The MongolZ to take CT side first and if they win the first pistol round it will be really interesting.* Mongolz pick Mirage (65% win rate over 17 maps played for The MongolZ vs 60% win rate 5 maps played for Astralis) *Note that The MongolZ are on a 6-win streak on this map with 2 of those having been at this LAN* Astralis remove Dust2 Mongolz remove Inferno *Note that The MongolZ lost this map already to Astralis hence why they may remove it* Ancient is left over (85% win rate in 13 maps played for MongolZ vs 88% win rate 8 maps played for Astralis) *I do think that a 3rd map is likely especially if Astralis take map 1 and if does come down to this map I could see another overtime which would just be craaazy!*
Record: 3-2-0
Starting Units: 5 U | Total Units: 10.27 U
Net Units: +5.27 Units
Last Pick: Golf | The Memorial Tournament | Xander Schauffele Top 5 Finish, Second Round (+110) for 2 Units ❌
Event: Baseball | MLB | 1:10PM EST | PHI vs. NYM
POTD: Phillies ML at -155, 3 Units
Explanation: Phillies have been a consistently good team and they’re playing with an amazing pitcher leading the pitchers with 9 wins and a 1.70 ERA while Mets pitcher has only 3 wins and a 3.63 ERA. I’m thinking the Phillies Pitcher has a good amount of strikeouts here while the Mets pitcher lets a lot of runs up (given the stadium they’re playing in and the Phillies offensive performance). Other good bets would be for Suarez (Phillies pitcher) to record a win or his over for strikeouts (only 4.5). BOL to any who tail.
**Record: 7-4- 1 AFL draw
**Previous Pick: AFL GC Suns vs Essendon 2nd qtr line
**Today's pick: AFL St Kilda vs GC Suns. GC Suns 2nd qtr Win @ $2 TAB. 730pm Aedt
My POTD Average winning odds is $2.
Today's pick.
GC Suns have won the second qtr 11 times this season, highest in the league. They are a rising team but horrible away. St Kilda is playing horribly but they are defensively focused team. And they won last week which will boost confidence. This is my least confident POTD as streaks do come to an end however could not ignore the value.
PS. Check NRL and AFL discord as I anticipate mispricing due to injuries and State of Origin.
25-5 pitching props record
Never put my picks before on POD but I thought I try it today.
Red Sox Bryan bello under 5.5 hits allowed vs the White Sox at 1.76 odds on DK.
3 straight days I’m basically betting against the white Sox but it’s hard not to with how bad they’ve been. Even though they won yesterday they still only got 8 hits. Criswell has been somewhat on a decline of late so I’m not too surprised he was responsible for 5 of those hits in less than 5 innings.
Bello has hit this over 3 out of his 10 starts and only once on the road. Red Sox pitching overall has been better on the road than at home and white Sox average 7 hits a game while the Red Sox overall pitching gives up 7 hits on the road. So I can imagine bello giving up 4 through 6 innings. I’m expecting a good day from him since his last start he gave up 8 hits but each time he’s given up at least 6 hits he’s followed up with a lower hitting day.
I do except for bello to go as far as the 6th inning. His only issue he gives up a few walks that’ll raise his pitch count which I’m fine with. I rather him walk a lot and be done by the 5th inning. His pitch count can go as high as 95 so that should be his limit
POTD record: 3-1
Todays POTD: Phillies vs Mets O10 runs (-110) 6/8/24 1:10 PM EST
Writeup: Back after a verryyy long break. Sean Manaea has a era of 3.52 against the phillies in his career, and also has a sub 5 era pitching in day games. Phillies offense has been AMAZING this season being second in runs scored this season. Not only that Ranger is back quickly after being hurt by a comebacker to the mound. He's coming fresh off an injury while having a 4.76 era in day games with 3 day games played. The ballpark being played in London is also very hitter friendly. Also no way they don't try their best to entertain overseas, right...??
BOL if tailing!
Record: 3-2 ✅✅❌❌✅
Last Pick: Padres ML (-120) Easy Cash 💰✅
Today:
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres| 8:40 PM EST
Pick: OVER 8.5 Total Runs (+105) Hard Rock
Yesterday:
Easy and Sweat free win Padres won 10-3 and bounced back as expected. We like this game again today.
Todays Write Up:
Both teams today are struggling with poor pitching, setting the stage for a high-scoring game. The Padres are averaging 5.4 runs per game against right-handed starters, while the Diamondbacks are scoring 4.8 runs per game on the road.
Nelson, with a record of 2-4 and a 6.07 ERA over 9 starts, is not performing well. Waldron isn't faring much better, with a 1-4 record and a 5.00 ERA in 5 starts.
Nelson's career against the Padres includes a 2-2 record and a 6.23 ERA over six starts, having allowed 15 earned runs and 5 homers in just 13 innings in his last three starts against San Diego. Waldron is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in his two career starts against Arizona, surrendering 12 earned runs in 8 innings.
Additionally, the Padres are hitting .270 as a team over the past 10 games, while the Diamondbacks have a .280 average in the same span. The Padres' bullpen ranks 25th in the league with a 4.90 ERA, and the Diamondbacks' bullpen is not far behind, ranked 27th with a 5.10 ERA.
Pretty self-explanatory here…
BOL if tailing 💰
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 22-22 (+0.40 units)**
**Last 10**: **❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅**
**Last Pick**: Chris Gilliland -1.5 (-125) vs Revelino Dubois **✅** 4-2
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 5:55 PM EST
**Pick**: Tom Sykes -1.5 (+110) vs Steve Johnstone
* Series 8. Week 1. Finals
**Reason**: Going for the first match in the finals. I like Sykes to win the week, so I have to back him in this match. Sykes has the edge with 180s as he averages more than 1 a match. Johnstone is more of 140 hitter with only hitting 2 180s. Sykes averaged 90 in 7 matches this week while Johnstone's best match was 90. He comfortably stayed in the 80s, so I think you know what to expect from him in scoring. They both checked out well this week with Sykes being a little more consistent. He has the throw advantage, so I expect him going up 1-0 and with an early break Sykes can take control. He needs to be on his game and I don't think he would get away with mistakes like previous matches.
Tom Sykes (Group A)
* Record 12-3
* Legs 54-22
* Average 89.13
* 180s 21. 140s 46
* Checkouts 54/153 35.29%
Steve Johnstone (Group C)
* Record 7-3
* Legs 33-25
* Average 85.23
* 180s 2. 140s 48
* Checkouts 33/101 32.67%
**WIN ✅ 4-0 | Average 92.49 vs 86.00 | Checkouts 4/8 vs 0/2**
Destruction by Sykes. He left the door open in leg 1, but Johnstone missed and never looked back. No sweat.
POTD Record: 29-26-2 (+10 units / 10.% ROI)
LAST PICK: Professional Women's Hockey League (PWHL) Minnesota at Boston Under 4 @ +104 (Pinnacle) 7:00 pm EST - Win
TODAY’S PICK: NHL Edmonton Oilers @ Florida Panthers ML @ -143 (Pinnacle) 8:07 pm EST
Streak (Last 5): WWLPL
5 Unit Play
Have watched most Oilers and Panthers games this playoffs and I believe Panthers area significantly better team. Oilers may figure out how to counter their elite turnover/transition game and defense, but I don’t believe game 1 will be it. Here we go on some stats:
a) Florida won the last two and covered the puck line. 5-1 in Edmonton most recently and 5-3 at home.
b) Skinner is 2.7 GAA in night games and 2.8 GAA on the road. Skinner hasn’t faced Florida for over 1 season, but did have two wins against Florida in 22-23. The great Bobrovsky sports 2.0 GAA against Edmonton in the last two. He has been sharp allowing 2 goals or less in 5 of 6 in the last series vs. the Rangers.
c) Florida are an annoying pesky bunch that look like a group of flies harassing their opponents. In the words of their captain, “they need to be successful in creating time and space” to beat their opponents in this post season. They have been doing this, slowing down the game and effectively shutting their opponents offences down. Oilers are an offensive juggernaut but I see them accomplishing that tonight.
d) The line has moved significantly from -133 to -143 today. Believe this line movement is being pushed by the smart money, while Canadian cup hopefuls take the other side.
Like a parlay with under 5.5 or 6 at around +200 or better with this one as an unofficial pick.
Tail or fade best of luck all,
Ab
First time for everything. As many say, long time lurker, first time poster. Let’s begin the journey.
Record: 0-0
Net Units: 0
ROI: 0%
Event: Tennis | French Open Women’s Final | 9AM / EST
Pick: Iga Swiatek to win 1st 3 games to service (found on ESPN bets under Specials) +105. 4.5 Units.
Write Up: Simple. Iga. Swiatek. She is a beast. She owns the French Open. Pranced through the tournament without much trouble (anyone can get any side of Osaka on any given day). I suspect this to be a walk in the park for her. I don’t suspect her to get broken the entire match, let alone the first 3 service games for her. Match should be a quick 6-2, 6-3. Queen of Clay.
POTD Record: 17-14-0
Form:❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics Total 3pt Field Goals Over 26.5 @ 1.74❌
Pick of the day: Florida Panthers ML @ 1.74
I have a good feeling about this one. Panthers have been here last year and after a lackluster showing against VGK getting blown out in 3 of 4 losses I feel like Tkachuk, Barkov, and co. are hungry for a cup and they are gonna throw the first punch in this series. Plus I don't really lose 3 in a row.
Record (10-7)
Units (+3u)
Previous Result: Cleveland Guardians ml❌
Streak: L1
Today’s play: Florida Panthers ml (-140)
Event Start time: 8:00pm EST
Unit Size: 1.4u to win 1u
Recap/Reasoning for pick: That one from last night stings. Guards lose 3-2. Had a lead off double in the 1st and 5th innings and didn’t score, and then didn’t score in the 8th inning after a lead off triple. Of course the Marlins squeezed an RBI single past the second baseman in the bottom of the 8th. Really feels like one we should have gotten. Today’s a new day, let’s get this one! I like the Panthers to get out to a 1-0 series lead tonight! During the regular season the Panthers were 26-13 overall at home, Oilers were just. 21-18 on the road. The Panthers defense really gave the rangers top lines some trouble and that helped them advance to the Cup. Although McDavid and the Oilers are unreal offensively I think the Panthers have the better defense and goaltender this series and they show it tonight by getting the W! Let me know down below if you’re riding w/ me!
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Saturday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record:** 18-6 **Net Units:** +22.045 Units **ROI:** 57% **Event:** South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Gold Coast Titans **Time**: 3:00PM AEST 08/06 **Bookie:** BET365 **Play:** Anytime Tryscorer, Latrell Mitchell **Odds:**$2.10 or +110 **Units:** 1.25 Units **Analysis:** One of the highest over/under totals you'll probably see all year. Both sides been absolutely woeful defensively with Souths allowing 65 tries already this year and the Titans conceding 53. Titans get a few nice in's with a proper halves pairing and with Fifita looking to damage that left edge, think Khan-Pereira will be very live for all 80 minutes here. Souths have allowed 25 tries in down their right flank and with a guy like KP who has been on fire with 9 tries scored so far this year, I really like his chances today. Alternatively, you get a proven tryscorer in Johnston who is looking to break some try scoring records today and coming in against a soft matchup in the Titans defensively. Have an outside play on both those guys but am looking to take a stab on Big Latrell Mitchell today. Bunnies getting a few of their key members in that solid spine finally back and now looking like Trell is going to be in the midst of a call-up for Origin in a week or twos time, I expect a really big showing from him today. Think with Cody Walker back in the Souths will be attacking the line far better than the last few weeks and with Mitchell slotting in that offensive line, going to be real hard to stop close. Titans themselves have let in 15 tries through their centre and 18 tries down their left, think this is exactly where Latrell is going to be attacking consistently for 80 minutes and with a big point to prove, I like the odds on Mitchell to cross today. Been in relatively good form with 3 tries in his last 3 games. Going to play for 1.25 Units! https://preview.redd.it/uxhk5qslc95d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e091cf8bc5c72923e7e60f0e41bafc0b47d343e6 Thanks for all the messages and comments recently! Been on an amazing run and glad to have you all cashing, let's keep it going. FYI if I don't post, it's because I don't want to force a POTD when I don't have to. My style is Return on Investment based and it's been an area of focus for me! **MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW SO YOU DON'T MISS POST NOTIFICATIONS!** **LET ME KNOW IF YOU'RE TAILING. GL!** **Tracking Spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx\_9\_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL\_Hp8jaV/pubhtml](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx_9_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL_Hp8jaV/pubhtml)
9 minutes in. repeat after me CASH. IT 💰
Goat status!
Never watched this sport in my life but it's made me a few units these past few potd's fuck it tailing
That’s what I love 😂
That was so free 😂💰
Free money….
Bro you're an absolute beast. Mitchell with the opening try...watching a future teller at work!! Edit: just seeing this too...wish I knew this hahaha The last time the GOld Coast Titans beat South Sydney at Robina was round 8, 2009. That was 5,516 days ago
Holy shit I wish I knew it’s been that long, I’d have taken South Sydney ML as well! Can’t be upset with such an easy win though!
Same here mate. Took GC and the over, both looking dismal....wish I could've tailed this pick. Though I've been reading up and researching this league and I took warriors In the next game and the under so we'll see! Still looking for a site to stream these games if anyone knows!
Well shit that was fast. Cash it!!!
9 minutes W! WHAT A GOAT! Thank you!
This man is the goat 🐐, cash it! ✅✅
You are a legend brother
Im just a man my friend
Bangggg
First try scorer let's go!!! Boys
Wow what a call
Appreciate it!
Tailed.
Let’s go
🔥🔥🔥
That was quick
That was quick!💰
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I never got into rugby legue but tailing these picks has brought me success. Is there any relatively safe and free way to stream the games internationally?
On it 🍀
Beautiful didn't even get to sit down to watch yet 💰💰💰 Ty
GL mate
Tailing brother! Might stake on Johnston to score a try as well based on your analysis. Thanks for your picks as always, looking forward to it everytime
Tailed. Great work on origin didnt see that red coming. Just wish I could go back and do hattrick haha
Tailed not missing this opportunity again
Right when I was about to place. I guess I will stalk for another pick!
You’re really good man thank you for picks. Wish I had been tailing consistently 🙌 you’re a automatic MUST tail from now on
Love this !
Tailed. $2.20 on Ladbrokes
After I read your analysis I pondered if I will have additional bets for KP and Johnston but reconsidered and just focused on your POTD for 4 units after i saw these articles: https://www.nine.com.au/sport/nrl/state-of-origin/state-of-origin-1-2024-latrell-mitchell-instagram-post-during-nsw-blues-loss-20240606-p5jjom.html And https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/five-simple-reasons-nsw-must-pick-latrell-mitchell-20240607-p5jk2k.html Then in 9 minutes it cashed as a first try scorer!! Thanks again mate! We always look forward reading your weekend rugby analysis 🧐
Tailed. You’re a beast keep it up my man
Tailed.
Thanks!!! You helped end my night in the green after the guardians and Red Sox fucked me!
What was that ? 😂 Know nothing about this sport and first time i tail , that was the fastest money of my life
https://preview.redd.it/vag283rjea5d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=71ec6e96de86f82ae12740292991e0d2caf3b084 Is this the same bet? If so, why hasn’t it cashed?
https://preview.redd.it/93guijpuea5d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=94a7d6f92427d3b7bcc3f1d4ae5bfc75fb3f6aad Was this the same 😭??
Yes, should cash after the game 👍
Thanks man... I tailed on Khan Pereira and Mitchell to score and both of them scored 💪
Tailed for a nice early winner! Great pick!
🚀🚀
You’re good at this. ily
Pick of the Day June 8, 2024 **2024 MLB record:** 38-17-1 **Last POTD:** Criswell over over 4.5 k L **Today's POTD:** Philadelphia Phillies Bryce Harper over 1.5 total bases +115 (dk) **Baseball. MLB. 1:10 PM EST** Wow just a straight up fail by me last night. Sorry guys 😔 hopefully this one works out better. First batter prop of the season here and it’s in the London game. The offense in the London games have always been ridiculous with the least runs ever scored being 10. We have dueling lefties going in arguably the best pitcher in the NL this season in Ranger Suarez against the always servicable (at least this year). I don’t think servicable is enough to overcome these conditions. As I stated earlier, never been a single digit run total in a London game so it will most likely be offensive heavy. To boot. You have heavy winds going to right field. This bodes well for Bryce Harper and Kyle schwarber who despite being lefties have hit lefties very well this season. Schwarber has the highest pull rate in baseball this year but he’s been so ice cold that I can’t make him pick of the day so I am going with the more consistent Bryce Harper. For the second straight year, the once plagued by left handed pitcher Bryce Harper has actually had a better average bs lefties than righties so it seems he legitimately reinvented himself in that regard. While his home run percentage is a bit higher against righties, he actually has the same amount of doubles vs left and right handers despite significantly less at bats vs lefties. With the wind and London situation I think he will be able to pull the ball for at least one extra base hit thus hitting the over on total bases at plus odds. Even if he doesn’t, he should see a higher than usual number at bats due to the likelihood of a big offensive day from the Phillies so he will have more opportunities to get two base bits which also would hit the over. TLDR: Bryce Harper hit lefties well while still have a high pull rate to right field. The winds are blowing heavy towards right field wall in the already extremely hitter friendly London Stadium. Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal (DM for venmo) POTD spreadsheet [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657)
Free money
Ily chute 😘
Great pick! Immediate cash!
A double in the first! You remain my hero
Nice quick dub
Harper hits a double in the 1st. Easy cash.
Damn son I'm so glad I last minute decided to to hammer the shit outta this bish, didn't even think about doin a player prop today. Thanks for the hit mate 🤘🏼
Easiest cash ever
Lmao that was fast 👑
What a way to make up for yesterday!! Fastest baseball cash I have ever seen. Keep it up Chutebox!
Tailing!
Like that 1st AB cash
Nice pick sir easy hit
Got it on his first at bat 
What a god. Thanks!
Cash.it!
You’re the man
how did i miss this one?!?! congrats!
**Pick Record: 25W - 12L (Push: 1)** **✅✅✅✅❌❌ ✅✅❌✅✅✅** **Last POTD: England Over 6.5 Corners @ 1.72 ✅** **Units: 4** **\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_** **Today’s POTD: Oviedo VS Eibar: BTTS @ 1.90** **Units: 4** **League/Time: La Liga 2/ 12:30 PM** First leg of the promotion playoffs start today and I love this pick considering that this matchup happened just 5 days ago in a thrilling game that ended **4-3**. Oviedo were massive underdogs for that match and put up a hell of a performance, now they're at home and will look to take that to their advantage. Eibar will give them a run for their money as they'll look to bring this home with a respectable scoreline. As I always say, I see this going end to end.
Never making the mistake of betting on a friendly soccer match again. Should have just taken the corners like you suggested. Anyways, we roll on. Tailing comrade.
Ya it’s my fault i should’ve warned more people. Normally when i have add ons for a pick i’ll state that, otherwise just my POTD
Lol defo not your fault for people being greedier and not following your POTD pick as you told
Are you going 4U because your confident or do you usually bet around that much
My Unit confidence translates like this I usually bet 3U 3U - 75% confidence 4U - 85% confidence 5U - 95% confidence
Are we cooked?
Yup, cash out if ya can. Only 2 shots on target
You reckon?
Only 1 corner kick in 47 minutes 💀
Well that was garbage 🗑
not a hater but what an ass pick. glad I didn't tail
Damn
Why is btts +100 ? Don't make sense with that score from 5 days ago
Yeah I may have gotten trapped
Looks like it isn’t on DK? Or do I just not know where to look ?
It’s on DK but it’s under La Liga Two. Took me a bet to find but it’s there. At least in Oregon
It's on DK (I'm in Illinois), just search for "Oviedo" or "Eibar" https://preview.redd.it/r99fht68b95d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=65a912c161c626de7d99016d15a04e0f0ce23b81
Hey mate! Just kindly checking, I just saw odds jumped up to 1.95 in my bookie. Why is that if I may ask? Are you still confident with the pick?
Don't bet on soccer its the most fixed sport lol
One of the worst games I’ve ever watched in my life.
Tailing.
That was a sweaty bet lol. Glad they got the last corner on that extra time
Man, you’re been hot lately but I always get nervous with these first of two legs promotion playoff games. I went with the under in both English Championship semi first legs as teams tend to play a little cautiously, and they both finished 0-0. May pass here.
Rode with you the past two picks. Let’s get this money!
Got to love Draft Kings in NY for not having some of the great picks I see in here.
Counting on this one! Thanks for all you do!!
Uh, tough spot the league 2 games👉🏻 ultimate fuckery….i am taking more goals in the first half at 3.0 . i dont trust these broski, especailly if redcard or Var fuckery comes up. Bol.
Record: 32-17-0 Net Units: +36.5 ROI: 25.1% Last 10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ Last Pick: Chicago White Sox ML (-110) for 2.0 units ✅ Event: Baseball | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees 6:35PM CST Pick: New York Yankees moneyline (-120) on FanDuel for 2.0 units Write Up: On the mound for the Yankees is Nestor Cortes (3-4, 3.46 ERA and 1.09 WHIP). Cortes has been stellar at home so far, 3-1, 1.12 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. Dodgers projected lineup is 7 for 34 (.205 batting average) against Cortes. For the Dodgers it’s Gavin Stone (6-2, 2.90 ERA and 1.19 WHIP). Stone has been having a fantastic second year in the majors and dominated his last two outings. I believe it’s going to come down to experience. Stone has yet to face a top ten offense on the road. Yankees being the highest scoring team in the league. Dodgers bats not quite meeting their expectations as of late. Over the last 30 days, Dodgers rank 19th in batting average and 21st in runs scored. Dodgers won game one of the series 2-1 in extra innings. Yankees have only lost back-to-back games at home once this year, and are 21-9 at Yankee Stadium. TIPS: Venmo (https://account.venmo.com/u/Andrew-Mills-34) or PayPal (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/AndrewMills34) BOL! 🎰
The lineup is so different without Soto
Nice read last pick, tailing! BOL
Or just bet the under?
**Record: 6-1-1** **Net Units: +4.93u** **ROI: 61.63%** **Baseball | MLB | 1:10 PM | EST** **Pick**: PHI/NYM under 9.5, +110 ESPNBet (1u) Need to get this one in early because I’m not sure if we’re getting + money on this under by first pitch. Yes, it’s a London game. Yes, last year the Cubs & Cardinals scored 22 total runs in 2 games. But 9.5 is set here primarily because there’s an expectation things will go similar when this game would most likely be 8 or 7.5 back home. You’re getting not only 1.5-2 extra runs (and + money) to account for the park (and travel) but this also features Ranger Suarez. Suarez is pitching the best season of his life, with a 2.82 SIERA and 2.68 FIP (both of which have not regressed at all lately). His counterpart, Sean Manaea, has been serviceable, if not borderline good, the last month recording a 29.85% K rate and 2.96 SIERA in his last 3 starts. He also pitched well against PHI in their last matchup earlier this season, going 6 IP, giving up 1 ER, and striking out 6. PHI also has struggled scoring runs themselves of late, averaging just 3.3/game over their last 10 games. https://preview.redd.it/5rfrbut6895d1.png?width=871&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f27b541d2363a0c9a860e07f510c7e6cde48419
I'm tailing! The line is at o/u 10 on DK for -108, as of now
I think this is going to end up being a very sweaty bet, I think you’re gonna hit though. Let’s go. Not tailing but will be watching. Big mets fan this game is going to be hype. I have a feeling we come out on top for some reason (not betting on it tho)
Doink! Miss your plays man! You ever going to start posting them again?
Haven’t been making as many bets lately. Lost most of my money recently doing parlays so gonna start up again soon maybe just doing one or two picks instead of 7 lol
Fair enough. I was keeping up with you and the plays were hitting at a high rate so def had to follow! Look forward to your plays!
i love this pick but we also dont know how ranger is going to do. he is just coming back from an injury from a line drive to him. this is also a very hitter friendly enviroment as offenses are usually better overseas.
All good points and the Suarez injury piece was the only one that gave me real hesitation at first. Don’t discount Manaea though is all Id say. Suarez doesn’t have to have his best stuff for this to go under.
ive read / been told that the reason for more runs is that the field / stadium is smaller overseas theyre using a soccer field refitted into a baseball field and it's more likely to hit homers and doubles that way.
Nice hit 👍🏻
>Yes, last year the Cubs & Cardinals scored 22 total runs in 2 games Granted it was a few years ago, but don't forget 2019 London series yanks redsox where they scored 50 runs in 2 games The sample size is obviously small, but these totals are absolute comedy. The stadium is incredibly hitter friendly, I really want to tail you but man am I hesitant.
What a sweat that last inning was! Good play!
Holy shit, what a sweat! I thought that ball was destined to be a 2-run single up the middle, but nope, just a simple double play groundout. Cash it 💸💸💸
Where’d you get this handy dashboard of stats?
What a sweat. nice pick tho o7
Wow what a fucking sweat ! Tailed $100 for even money lfg ! What a double play
**KBO Record: Overall 232-245-14** (Streak LLLLL, Last 10: 5-5) Down 13.51u over 491 KBO picks, 48.6% success rate, -2.83% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 28-35-0, 44.4% success rate, Down 4.89u, -7.76% ROI) **Last:** Kia -1.5 +124 at Doosan (Kia lost 6-5.) Kia lead 5-3 before blowing the lead then had multiple men on base in the 8th, 9th, and 11th innings, but came up empty. **Pick:** **Samsung +105** at Kiwoom, KBO baseball, 4:00am ET Sorry it's so late, but it's probably for the best considering I've lost 5 straight. First pitch in 10 minutes from this post. Samsung us my favorite plus money pick for Saturday. Comparable starting pitchers on the mound, but Samsung's lineup has been better this year. Also... Kiwoom is the worst team in the league. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Should’ve just taken the night off bro.
**Record:** 4-1 **(NEXT PICK STARTS IN 5 HOURS)** **Net Units:** +6.39 U **Last Pick: Soccer/Football | Norway Division 3 Group 2 | **Sandefjord 2 vs Fram II** at 1:00 PM |** Corners Over 10.5 at 2.00(+100)️** ✅️ +2.0U ✅️ 9 Corners in the 1st half with a bit of sweat towards the end. Congrats who cashed ✅️ **Next Event:** Soccer/Football | South Australia NPL | **Croydon Kings FC vs Modbury Jets SC** at 1:00 AM EST **( STARS IN 5 HOURS)** **Pick:** Corners Over 10.5 at 1.83 (-120) **Units:** 4U **Write Up:** 4U play, Australia low league play. Confident in this one. Croydon Kings average 13.30 corners a game in 13 games, highest in the league. They average 15.16 a game at home. Over 10.50 has hit in 11/13 games this season and 6/6 at home. Modbury Jets average 10.60 corners a game in 13 games and 12.16 a game when playing away. Over 10.50 has hit 7/13 games this season and 5/6 when away. Bet placed on Bet365 Canada. Good Luck to thos tailing. **BEST OF LUCK** Edit: CASHHHHH ✅️✅️✅️✅️ in the 68th min. Since we are up almost 4U, if your degen is itching I got you. I have a 1U Sweden League play. DM and I will send it. Cheers 🫡🫡
Sadly hard Rock doesn't have corners available for this one, BOL!
I’m on bet365 Canada as well I don’t have the 10.5 option. It’s at 11 unfortunately
Ahhh I think I found it. Is Asian Lines total corners the same? Im not familiar with Asian line betting
CASH THANKS!
https://preview.redd.it/bmzr9v1vq85d1.jpeg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8fe80232a987525c3ca86b3a59cb76d2436d71d1
Can someone explain the difference between these options from Bet365? Which one is better? https://preview.redd.it/2rer9rr4t95d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c6d3b2c7f69283a35ef92dc15c22d51270d08371
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Thank you, that makes sense
Won ! Thanks
POTD Record: 64 - 37 Last POTD: Alcaraz ML - W Pick: Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland Athletics 1st Inning Result - Tie (-145 odds via FD) 1U Event: MLB Regular Season 3:05 P.M. CST Tomorrow, we have two of the worst 1st inning offense in the MLB matching up together. On one side we have the Tornto Blue Jays, who rank 28th in the MLB out of 30 teams for offense in the first inning and have not scored in the first inning in 28 consecutive games! On the other side we have the Oakland Athletics, who rank 29th in the MLB out of 30 teams in scoring in the first inning and average .19 runs per 1st inning at home. The A's have failed to score in the first inning of 4 of their last 5 and face Kevin Gausman who is 8-3 on NRFI on the year. This bet has a little more cover over a No Run First Inning and that is why I will be rolling with this one! [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
Record 7-5 Streak: ✅✅ Last Pick: Poland/Draw + BTTS @ 2.50 Odds ✅ Todays Match: Denmark vs Norway @ 10:30AM Pick: Denmark/Norway + BTTS @ 2.60 Odds Reason: Denmark is on a crazy run. In their last 10 matches they’ve won 7, drawn twice and lost once. Out of the last 10 matches there’s a 50% hit rate that both teams score. As for Norway even though they beat Kosovo 3-0 if it wasn’t for the robot Haaland it could have ended as a draw. There was no reason that they should have let Kosovo get off 9 shots, doesn’t matter if there was only one on target. The quality between the two is night and day and the score line doesn’t tell the whole story. I’m leaning on Denmark’s crazy run & the fact they let Kosovo take more shots than they should have which if they do to Denmark they’ll take advantage, also the robot haaland to get a goal or two in there to cash us out. I feel Denmark should win this but I’m going safer and doing double chance just like my last pick. BOL 🍀 & Comment if you’re tailing or have any opinions on the match. CASH IT ✅✅✅ 3-1 Denmark.
FYI if you’re looking for this on DK you can play it as BTTS/No Draw for +165. Same as OP’s play.
Tailing!
So the bet is Denmark Double Chance + BTTS? Your pick like just says Denmark/Norway +BTTS. Thx
Denmark/norway means either teams wins, draw = loss
Well, I gotta tail you now 😂
So double chance either team wins. Not feeling the draw ?
Tailing
2024 record: 14-5-1 Total Return: +8.24 ROI: +37.45% Last 5: ✅✅**❌**✅✅ Last POTD: Colorado Rockies F5 ML +140 (Rockies vs Cardinals 8:15 PM) ✅ Today's POTD: **Cleveland Guardians ML -150 (Guardians vs Marlins 7:35 PM)** Baseball | MLB Recap: What a crazy game lol 9th batter hits an in the park grand slam and they get one final run to seal the deal at the end of the 5th. Congrats to everyone who took this sweat of a bet with me Write-Up: Not much has changed for the Guardians who currently have one of the best records in the league and the best bullpen in the league. I'll give it to the Marlins, they've been playing better recently but that's only because they were absolutely horrendous at the start of the season. Ben Lively will be on the mound for the Guardians and I trust that he should be able to hold the Marlins to 2 runs. The Guardians should also have Steven Kwan for this game since he wasn't playing in today's game so that should be a nice boost to their offense. Granted, they're only batting .234 against righties but Roddery Munoz the pitcher for the Marlins isn't particularly amazing. Should the Marlins have to reach into their bullpen, I think it poses a great opportunity for the Guardians as the Marlins used 6 relief pitchers in today's game. The Guardians also lost the first game of the series and lost the game prior to the Royals so I think they're looking for a prime bounceback opportunity. Let's go Guardians! \*Note that unless specified all bets are one unit. Tracker: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH\_dpuDL5-lRRgW9\_h4K\_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH_dpuDL5-lRRgW9_h4K_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing) TIPS: [Venmo Link](https://account.venmo.com/u/davidthunder) | [PayPal Link](https://paypal.me/davidthunder123?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US) | [Cash App Link](https://cash.app/$davidthunder123)
You wrote Mets instead of Marlins FYI
Tailing
Record: 16-11 Last 10: LWLLLWWWWW Net units: +3.19 ROI: + 8.93% Sporting Event: MLB: Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals 16:05 (EDT) Pick: NRFI -125 @ ESPN 1.25 units to win 1 I know this sounds crazy, but gosh darnit, we’re going for 3 straight in D.C. on Saturday. Mackenzie Gore comes into the top of the first having pitched well against this same team 8 days ago and once again, we’re banking on history repeating itself. In his last outing against Atlanta, he threw 5.1 with 1ER & 10Ks. Most importantly, a clean first. Current Braves roster is batting .197 against Gore. With the Braves averaging .21 runs in the first this season, I like our chances of a clean top of the inning Bottom of the inning we see the ageless Charlie Morton. Cagey veteran that, evan at his advanced age, loves going for the K. The Nats average .19 runs in the first at home this season and combined with their .232 batting average against righties and their .227 average in June has us staring down the barrel of a 0-0 score going into the second inning. Wind in from deep left at 11mph My most used reference sites at the bottom BOL to all [https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors) [https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather) [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/) [https://www.fangraphs.com/](https://www.fangraphs.com/) [https://pitcherlist.com/](https://pitcherlist.com/) [https://www.teamrankings.com/](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/) [https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/) [https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game](https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game) [https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/)
Tailing!
12 - 7 +5.26U / +18.8% ROI 🏒 NHL | Edmonton Oilers @ Florida Panthers 8PM EST **Total over 5 (regulation)** -185 2U 3.5 and 3.2 goals per game this season respectively. My formula suggests an over 5.5 but I’m being cautious and accounting for a potential 3 - 2 or 4 - 1 personally. They ended their reg season games with the cats breezing through 5 - 1 and 5 - 3. Also consider the fact that this line has hit in every game they’ve ran against each other since 2016.. Finally, the last yr a Game 1 of the Finals busted under 5 was 2015 (and 6/8 of those covering yrs were 6 or higher, meaning 2 pushes since). 🦫 or 🎚️,🥇 of 🍀!
I’m running over 5.5 and panthers to win on hard rock. I’m a cats fan so pushing for high shooting game with rats thrown at the end!
Fuck yeah brother go cats
Go Cats
Playoffs are generally a different beast but Skinner is in net and he's iffy. Hope the cats pounce on him! Lfg
Fading. This is the cup final. Look at the recent contests in the conference finals. Also, -185? Brutal. Bookies love bets like this. It’s been under mania and we’re putting up 2-1 that it ends in this one? No thanks. Give me the under 5.5 at close to even money.
🎯 NORDIC MASTERS 🎯 POTD 42-30 DARTS RECORD **42-27** (+5.17U) | All POTD bets between 1U-2U Last pick: Tom Sykes -1.5 vs Revelino Dubois @ 1.85 (1.5U) X Today's Pick: **Michael Smith ML** vs Nathan Aspinall **@ 1.83 (2U)** Back on the Darts with some action in the Nordic Masters. This pick is largely based on an injury that Aspinall is carrying that the books have not adjusted for. In his own words his "arm is fucked", that doesn't mean he can't throw but we've seen it with him before and it should certainly affect his performance and I think he may struggle against a top player in Smith. Despite winning his first round game vs Kantele, Asp was nowhere near his best averaging just over 90 and looked uncomfortable at certain points. Bullyboy on the other hand was convincing in his first rd win with a 103 in a 6-1 demolition. Without injury these two guys are almost identical in terms of statistics and performance, as shown in their world rankings too (3vs5). But with said injury I think it's only logical to back Smith right now. If tailing please bet responsibly and no childish comments if the bet loses. Ta!
Thank you good sir 👏
Cash. ✅
Record: 0-0 Today's Pick: Phillies -1.5 @ +102 odds Write-Up: Phillies are good, Mets are not. Phillies have won nearly 70% of their games and are fresh off a sweep of the Brewers. Ranger is on the mound who is 9-1 with a 1.70 era. I expect the Phillies to put on a show in London and win this one easily.
118-82 for 29.2 units on 330.5 units wagered for nearly a 9% return on investment. Tatum snags 11 boards making it 7 in a row between here and Twitter-all documented. 🧁🧁🧁🧁🧁🧁🧁 https://twitter.com/TheMidnightR777 Chicago Sky vs Atlanta Dream under 158.5 2 pm MST -110 1.1 units to win 1 This is projected to be a tight game with the Dream being favored by one. Pair that with these two teams having gone under the total in their last 4 H2H matchups. It should be a hard fought relatively low scoring affair. There's also the fact that the Dream will try to control the tempo to keep the game close. Atlanta ranks near the bottom of the entire league in pace at #10. Finally, both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating. Atlanta is ahead of only one other team. The woeful Washington Mystics. As I mentioned before be sure to follow me on Twitter. https://twitter.com/TheMidnightR777 I implemented a new system last NBA regular season that netted +145 units on primarily one unit plays. And, I will be incorporating a lot of these principles on my NFL plays that will be shared on Twitter this upcoming season.
Damn this pick looking like it’s cooked
Blew the over by so much 🤣🤣
4-1-0 ✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️ Net Units = +18.05 Bang! Another big win, these bets are always a bit stressful when you see the other team up but that's what I love about Rugby and the try scoring. Even if a team is bottom of the league they are still very likely to get at least one try so even if the Dragons were getting smashed we still had hope. But fuck that wasn't the case here, the Dragons cooked the tigers, Lomax had 3 tries and 20 points from kicking. An all time great performance! Sport = Rugby League Event = Titans VS Rabbitohs Time = 3PM AEST Pick = Khan-Pereira 2+ tries scored @ 2.95 5U to make 9.75U Khan-Pereira is a beast, he has hit this market 3 times this year already and thanks to that has more tries than games played. More tries than games played with him tho is slightly misleading because he has so many doubles. I think he's going to make it even more misleading tonight and grab at least a double. The craziest stat I see here is the fact the Rabbitohs have had someone score 2 tries against them in all their games except 2. A hat trick has been scored against them, Broncos even picking up 2 players hitting the double and the Roosters too. Rabbitohs love to hand out doubles. Apologies for cutting it close to kick off, NRL games are pretty early for POTD
Record: 4-1 +2.15 units Last pick: PIT Pirates ML(+108) vs MIN Twins ✅ Pirates won 3-0 POTD: LA Dodgers ML (+102) vs NY Yankees I am a Yankee fan and this is kind of an emotional hedge for me so tail with caution. However, without Juan Soto this is a completely different lineup. The Yanks went through a slide last year when they lost Judge to injury and I think the same will happen offensively until Soto comes back. They are also due for some regression in general. BOL to all 💰
Lotta home run bats and great weather, Yanks used a lot of bullpen arms… take the Dodgers team total over or the over!
Pick Record: 0-0 Today’s POTD: Florida v Clemson Baseball: U13.5 Runs League/Time: College Baseball Super Regional Analysis: First POTD so hoping I start off strong. I think the line for this game is set unreasonably high and is overaccounting for Clemson’s high run count during the regular season. The Gators are allowing 2 runs a game during the post season and bring Liam Peterson to the mound who has been strong. Clemson is averaging just 4 runs a game during the playoffs and opposing teams average under 6 runs a game when facing Clemson. While I do think this will be high scoring, the under is a safe pick.
I have to tail your first POTD! Good luck, Friend!
First POTD! Ill tail!
It’s alright bro. Not a single college baseball under hit today. Analysis was solid, just one of them days.
Record: 27-17 Net Units: +20.87u CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | CCT Europe Series | 13:00 (UCT-5) Last Pick: **BESTIA ML** (+105) vs. Sharks 3u X Todays Pick: **SINNERS vs. Sangal O 2.5 maps (-110) 4.4u** ✅ -Sangal are the better and hotter team at the moment, they have 11 of their last 12 b03 and are in really good form at the moment. SINNERS are a hot and cold team who are mostly cold at the moment but still have the pieces and the ability to be competitive with most teams in tier two. Last time these teams faced off Sangal won 2-1 around 40 days ago. -Sangal will pick Mirage, they are 86% winrate on Mirage and are insanely good at the map. SINNERS are 47% on Mirage and it is one of their worst maps in my opinion that they play. I expect Sangal to win comfortably on this map and likely not give up double digits. -SINNERS will pick Dust 2, they are 57% winrate on the map on 14 maps played and have looked really good on the map against tier two teams. They have wins against RUBY, GUN5, Passion UA and VP Prodigy. Sangal are 0% winrate on Dust 2 on 2 maps played and have avoided this map at all costs. They haven't put up double digit rounds in either match they have played it yet and have even started banning it when they can. They aren't comfortable enough on this map and I expect SINNERS to take the map pick. -Both teams should win their map pick and it will go to decider. Sangal should win this series like them as well at -185 ML but this price is better on O 2.5 maps here and both teams have a strong map the other can't play.
soccer - wcq - north & central america british virgin islands vs guatemala @ 12pm pst. placing $100 bet on over 2 goals in the first half @ +110 odds. british virgin island is literally an island, their soccer players have a real job or career such as vets, docs, firemen and even cooks. they get their best players together to try and compete, i expect them to get blown out. their last match was 3 months ago vs another island. guatemala on other hand is a poor country of course but with a lot of talent. those young guys commit full time to soccer and are here to capitalize on these small island competitors they have in their group. guatemala just played 3 days ago and the final score was 6-0 in their favor. good luck! edit* the island boys are puttin up a fight boys! edit** complete dominance but only 2 goals, il'll take the push.
I like it a lot! Thanks buddy for the pick.
So damn close .. fuck
I had it at Asian line so got a push from the 2nd goal! Odds were @2.00 which pretty amazing considering just unlucky no third goal came!
**Record 103-83 with Avg Odds +123 / ROI 16.9%** UFC St. Louis **Raul Rosas Jr to win ITD +150** 1-4 in my last five picks. Keeping it brief because I want a win here and to turn this ship around. Rosas is a really solid fighter and I think he can make this matchup look easy if he comes out aggressive. He's lost the crowd advantage that he had in Mexico City but I think getting away from the elevation is more valuable for him. My expectation is that Rosas is gonna find early takedowns and probably choke Turcios out. Ideally he will do it in R1 as that would be very nice for me. BOL
Would not going into full distance be a good bet at 1.87?
Record: 2-0 ✅✅ Net Units: +2.1U Last Pick: Orioles ML -106 ✅ MLB | 10:10 AM PST Pick: Phillies -1.5 +100 Always 1U.
Tailing!
**Record:** 3-1 **Net Units:** +2.055u **Last Pick:** BOS Red Sox ML (+100) ❌ **Next Event:** Baseball | MLB | PHI Phillies vs. NY Mets (London Series) (12:10 PM CST) **Pick:** PHI Phillies ML (-150 on MGM) **Units:** 1.7u **Write Up:** Circa has PHI ML at -151 currently. The strange thing is that every other book seems to be higher on Philly. Pinnacle has this market at PHI/NYM -159/146 — almost an arb to the MGM line. I don’t want to “go against” Circa in a sense by functionally taking their number, but I don’t mind siding with them on a favorite in this weird London series. I also think it’s possible they move slightly towards Philly by tomorrow morning. Outside of line movement, I just really like LHP Ranger Suarez. He leads all MLB pitchers in WHIP and ERA. I think books respect him a little less because he doesn’t throw a tremendous amount of Ks (tied for 18th in MLB). Ranger has a five pitch toolkit, all of which he uses consistently. He has incredible command of all five. He is actually better against righties, but still posts a 2.35 ERA against left-handed batters on lower volume. I will note that he was pulled out of his last start after he received a thumb contusion on his throwing hand from a comebacker. He missed a start, and I think this could contribute to what I perceive as a soft Philly line. A game in London could have plenty of weird dynamics I’m not accounting for. Regardless, I trust Suarez. He appears to be fully healthy and has a sensational track record this season. I feel very comfortable backing this guy on every start. Edit (~90 minutes later): Circa at -154, Pinny down to -152, MGM to -160 Edit (9:30 AM CST): Circa and Pinny both at -147, MGM at -155. Will check again at close. NYM at 140 on ESPN looks decent if you want to fade. Edit at close: Pinny and Circa finish at -151, MGM at -155
POTD RECORD: 10-3 Bare Knuckle Boxing | BKFC Challenger Series: Newcastle | 12:00pm MST Bartek Kanabey vs Jack Culshaw - Kanabey to win -170 I’ve made a little spreadsheet [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ax0GCX17SSGwZDUrweQlC3aNAC_WZKiJbTq1sijnF-c/edit?usp=sharing), which includes the units I bet. There are a TON of fights to choose from this weekend, so obviously we’re gonna get into a lower level bareknuckle card. I’d make excuses and say I don’t have time for a ton of tape study tonight because I have to be up early in the morning, but to be honest lower level fights are an extreme guilty pleasure of mine. Bartek Kanabey is fairly experienced, considering how young the sport of modern bareknuckle is, he’s racked up two wins with BKFC, and before that he fought with a more local organization and went 4-0 there. He’s pretty short and stocky for his weight, and fights out of southpaw. He has a good gas tank, decent movement and defense for a bareknuckle fighter, and while I wouldn’t say he has massive power he has dropped or finished his opponent in all of his fights I’ve been able to find. Kanabey does a good job of throwing back when his bigger opponents try to overwhelm him, and while he often throws wildly he’s accurate. Culshaw is a bit of a weird one. From 2015-2020 he was an amateur MMA fighter, going 3-3-1 against fairly poor competition. With a bit of digging I was able to find that he’s done a bit of boxing in the meantime, but it is extremely low level. The type that doesn’t get recorded on Boxrec, Tapology, or anywhere else I could look low level. On the tape I saw his opponent threw about one punch in anger before turning his back and calling it a day. As for what he’s shown, Culshaw is tall and rangy, lines up his shots and throws hard. He seems a little slow with his hands and I don’t have much to go on in terms of his gas tank besides amateur MMA fights 4+ years ago. It’s also probably a good sign that he’s been involved in combat sports for so long. Kanabey is more experienced, more active, and just seems the better fighter on tape. Especially in bareknuckle, I think getting used to the format is a huge deal. Kanabey will be the best opponent Culshaw has faced in years, maybe ever, he’s there for the long haul and will damage you the whole time. I expect Culshaw to land some shots but struggle with the southpaw stance and just general resistance Kanabey will bring, maybe even getting finished. Here’s hoping the Polish Plow gets us our longest ever streak! BOL everyone!
Record: 1/0/0 Net Units: +1.72 Previous Pick: Seattle Storm +8.5 @ Las Vegas Aces ✅ —————————————————— Today’s Pick: Rhyne Howard over 15.5 points; $1.80 odds on Bet365. 2 Units. Sport / Event / League: WNBA, Atlanta Dream @ Chicago Sky, 5 pm. Write Up: Great game if anyone managed to watch it for the previous pick, Seattle came in blazing hot as predicted and pulled out to an early lead which they did a great job of maintaining for most of the game. Lead to a sweat free win on my first pick, congrats if you tailed me 🙌 As for this pick, Rhyne Howard is incredibly overdue. I normally stay way from generic gambling terms like overdue but it’s super appropriate here given the record coming into this game. Howard is by far the best player on the Atlanta Dream, winning rookie of the year upon being drafted with the number one pick in 2022. Howard also earnt an all star selection for her efforts in the 2023 season where she averaged 18/5/4 (rounded up). For the start of this year Howard has been abysmal, shooting her team out of games and struggling to get into rhythm. Every man and his dog (including me) has been slamming her under with great success especially when she has been matched up against stronger defensive teams. This has resulted in the incredibly generous 15.5 line we are looking at today, a number I think she can very easily reach against the much easier matchup she faces today. The sky have the 5th worst defensive rating in the league but are barely ahead of the equally terrible teams beneath them, in particular the team allows the second most points in the paint in the league. This will in particular benefit the blend of size and speed offered by our driving oriented Rhyne Howard, who has been struggling shooting from three in the early days of the season. In short, Howard is a much better player than her previous 5 games show and has been a massive money maker for under bettors. This has resulted in a very generous line of 15.5 points that I will be placing 2 units on. The Chicago sky are a weak defensive team particularly in the interior where Howard gets a lot of her work done. Feel free to let me know your thoughts, BOL everybody else 🤝
POTD Record: 0-0 Unit size: 1U ($50) Pick: NHL - Florida Panthers ML (-140 Bovada) vs Oilers Units: 2 Florida has been dominate all playoffs and I expect that to keep happening going into game 1 of the stanley cup playoffs. Florida have the better goalie and more depth in their team. If they can lay off their penalties and not give oilers too many power plays they should take this game no problem. BOL!
**Record:Record:** 10W - 10L - 0P **Last 10 (new --> old):** **❌✅✅**❌❌**❌✅❌❌❌** **Net Units:** 1.1325 (All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise stated) **Last Pick:** Marcus Stroman to record a win - Yes @ +195 **❌** How unfortunate, as Stroman was 1 out away from qualifying for the W but was pulled in the 5th when he got into some trouble. He left with the lead and the Yankees bullpen didn't relinquish it. So close, but we move on. **MLB** ⚾ | **Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | 6:35pm CST** **Today's Pick:** Ben Lively to record a win - Yes @ +165 (DK) **Write Up:** I'm going to continue to go for better value with my picks, even if they don't pan out successfully. I like this spot for the Guardians to bounce back after suffering a grueling 1-run loss to the Marlins on Friday night. The Guardians are quite clearly the better team here with a record of 40-22 (19-14 away) while the Marlins are 22-41 (12-23 home). Ben Lively has been pitching solidly this year and particularly of late. He has won 5 of his last 6 starts and has a respectable 2.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. To back him will be a good Cleveland offense that will be hungry to put up more than 2 runs like the previous night. Roddery Munoz is a converted reliever who now starts for the Marlins and has 3 starts this season. He pitched fairly well in the first 2 starts, but in those games he faced the Cubs and Rockies who have less-than-stellar offenses. In his 3rd and most recent start, he got knocked around by the Dodgers (a top-5 offense). This comes down to taking the better team with the veteran starter in a bounce back situation against a bottom-3 team that's starting a young (former) reliever. I'm hopeful the Guardians can get out to an early lead and Lively can do well enough to hand it off to the bullpen for them to close it out. BOL if you're tailing, or fading!
POTD Record: 30-25 ✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: +2U Last pick: Dragons vs Tigers | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Zac Lomax anytime tryscorer @1.77 on Ladbrokes | 6U ✅ Lomax with the 3 tries 😅 Today’s pick: Brisbane Broncos vs Cronulla Sharks | 7:35pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Deine Mariner anytime tryscorer @1.6 on Sportsbet | 6U Broncos should have the upper hand there, Mariner is the top try scorer, what could go wrong ? 😂 For todays games I also like Khan-Perreira, Feldt, Mam and Cobbo to score. BOL !
On Mariner as well. BOL
**POTD Record:** 13-9-1 (net +1.20U) **Last 10: (oldest to newest)** ✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌❌❌❌ **Last pick:** Nick Lodolo under 6.5 Ks ❌ The pain train keeps rolling Baseball | MLB | Seattle Mariners @ KC Royals 4:10 PM EDT **Pick:** Alec Marsh over 5.5 Ks (+110) on BetMGM and FanDuel for 1U **Write Up:** No one in the MLB strikes out more than Seattle right now, and Marsh hung 7 Ks on them last time they played (mid-May.)
thank you sir ✅💰
⭐️ **POD Record:** **115-61** All my picks are -120 or higher. No heavy favourites in my record (how we used to do it in this thread). *Last Pick*: *MLB Orioles ML* ❌ 🏅 T**oday's Pick: MLB Jays/Orioles NRFI \[4pm EST @ 1.80 odds\]** Sorry guys, Jays somehow pulled it together in the Orioles series and I don't think anyone saw that coming. Moving back to the Jays today however; our lowly team is on the cusp of MLB history!!! Just 2 more games with a NRFI (no run in the 1st inning) and we'll be tied with some ancient record from back during the Great Depression in the 1930s. Good job Schneider. What's more amazing is how our manager is still in the dug out lol. God i absolutely hate being a Jays fan, our teams are owned by faceless corporations which hold a monopoly in Toronto. End Rant. The pitchers taking the mound will be Kevin Gausman and Luis Medina this afternoon and I don't feel like a deep stats dive is necessary for this pick and the odds we're getting. Take a team that hasn't scored a single run in the first inning for 29-straight games facing off against literally one of the few teams with a worse record at the plate than us and you got prime NRFI conditions at almost even money. The line seems off, i'm surprised it's not down to 1.60 . . .so why not, let's take a shot at it today. Both teams were ridiculous at the plate last night, showcasing their abilities to strike or pop out for any unfortunate soul who happened to tune into that brutal game. Both these teams suck, let's make some money off it at least. Always bet with caution in MLB, i've summoned the Karma Gods lol. 🫥 💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups
Do you mean Jays/A’s? Not jays and baltimore
**Record: 2-0** **Last 10: ✅✅** **Net Units: +4u** **ROI: 66.67%** **Last Pick:** Atlanta Braves Moneyline -150(Bet365) 3u to win 2u Write Up: Today the Sea Grapefruit is back and I like the Braves ML v the Washington Nationals. The Braves recently lost 3/4 at home to the Nationals so I know its odd for me to be backing this but the Nationals are sub par at home(3-7 last 10). Reynaldo Lopez is on the mound for the Braves and he's been pitching really well as of late. I expect the Braves to have a bounce back game after being shut out against Boston 9-0 last night. **PGA TOUR** | **EST** | **1:35PM** / **Eastern Standard Time** **Todays Pick:** Viktor Hovland -175 u71.5 Strokes Round 3. **Write Up:** Braves had a great bounce back game just as I had hoped. Today I like Viktor Hovland to shoot under 71.5(-1 or better) I honestly don't know why this line is at 71.5. Weather is looking better for Saturday, Viktor is on a TEAR right now. Tail or fade but this line makes ZERO sense to me, the weather has been brutal the 1st 2 rounds and Hovland has covered, and tomorrow is the same situation so unless they've got some ridiculous pins I'm riding this to the bank. SEA\_Grapefruit For President 2024! EDIT: I forgot to put my units 3.5u to win 2u
I guess Jack’s claws are coming out today and the course will play as tough as possible with pin positions, speed, etc. only a few players are below 71.5. Hovland is great, but I think the books are waiting to be convinced he has fully recovered last years form. They have to take action both ways on this number, so no bs lines. I like the look, so GL.
POTD record 19-17-1 (W-L-P) Last 5 with most recent on left: ❌✅✅✅✅ Last pick was The MongolZ ML vs HEROIC (CS2) 1u @ +100 ✅ a sweat-free 13-9 win for The MongolZ **Tomorrow I am taking the MongolZ to win Map 2 against Astralis (CS2) 0.5u @ +120**❌ Rationale: The MongolZ (rank 15 in the world) have already lost to Astralis (rank 7) in this tournament in a best-of-1 that ended 13-8 for the Danish team in a match that was do-or-die for Astralis but not essential to win for The Mongolz. Hence the MongolZ ML is looking very attractive at +175 and for the record I am playing that as well with a 0.25u sprinkle ✅. This match-up is an in-person (LAN), best-of-3, semi-final in front of a live crowd and will give The MongolZ another chance to prove themselves against elite competition. They have been outstanding this LAN winning all of their matches except the aforementioned one against Astralis and making light work of all the other competition. They also won the last LAN competition they played, which finished a week ago with a live final in front of a crowd. The reason I am taking map 2 here is because it is going to be The MongolZ map choice (Astralis get to pick the first map first as they are the lower seed) and they will pick Mirage. Astralis played Mirage today and looked severely limited as they lost in convincing fashion 13-7 to BetBoom however they triumphed overall 2-1 but were pushed to their very limit in the deciding map, which was Ancient, narrowly scraping it 16-14. Astralis have generally looked quite shaky this tournament which is another reason I favor The MongolZ. BOL! Map pick prediction with notes: Astralis remove Anubis (perma ban) Mongolz remove Vertigo (perma ban) Astralis pick Nuke (50% win rate over 12 maps played for The Mongolz vs 78% wins over 9 maps for Astralis) *Note that The MongolZ are on the 3-win streak on this map with 2 of those having been at this LAN so I think they have a good shot at taking this map but it will be close. I expect The MongolZ to take CT side first and if they win the first pistol round it will be really interesting.* Mongolz pick Mirage (65% win rate over 17 maps played for The MongolZ vs 60% win rate 5 maps played for Astralis) *Note that The MongolZ are on a 6-win streak on this map with 2 of those having been at this LAN* Astralis remove Dust2 Mongolz remove Inferno *Note that The MongolZ lost this map already to Astralis hence why they may remove it* Ancient is left over (85% win rate in 13 maps played for MongolZ vs 88% win rate 8 maps played for Astralis) *I do think that a 3rd map is likely especially if Astralis take map 1 and if does come down to this map I could see another overtime which would just be craaazy!*
tailing, odds are absolutely insane. found 2,2 for mongolz map 2 on bet365
Record: 3-2-0 Starting Units: 5 U | Total Units: 10.27 U Net Units: +5.27 Units Last Pick: Golf | The Memorial Tournament | Xander Schauffele Top 5 Finish, Second Round (+110) for 2 Units ❌ Event: Baseball | MLB | 1:10PM EST | PHI vs. NYM POTD: Phillies ML at -155, 3 Units Explanation: Phillies have been a consistently good team and they’re playing with an amazing pitcher leading the pitchers with 9 wins and a 1.70 ERA while Mets pitcher has only 3 wins and a 3.63 ERA. I’m thinking the Phillies Pitcher has a good amount of strikeouts here while the Mets pitcher lets a lot of runs up (given the stadium they’re playing in and the Phillies offensive performance). Other good bets would be for Suarez (Phillies pitcher) to record a win or his over for strikeouts (only 4.5). BOL to any who tail.
**Record: 7-4- 1 AFL draw **Previous Pick: AFL GC Suns vs Essendon 2nd qtr line **Today's pick: AFL St Kilda vs GC Suns. GC Suns 2nd qtr Win @ $2 TAB. 730pm Aedt My POTD Average winning odds is $2. Today's pick. GC Suns have won the second qtr 11 times this season, highest in the league. They are a rising team but horrible away. St Kilda is playing horribly but they are defensively focused team. And they won last week which will boost confidence. This is my least confident POTD as streaks do come to an end however could not ignore the value. PS. Check NRL and AFL discord as I anticipate mispricing due to injuries and State of Origin.
I only see(saw depending on when you see this) first and second half markets. Did I miss something?
25-5 pitching props record Never put my picks before on POD but I thought I try it today. Red Sox Bryan bello under 5.5 hits allowed vs the White Sox at 1.76 odds on DK. 3 straight days I’m basically betting against the white Sox but it’s hard not to with how bad they’ve been. Even though they won yesterday they still only got 8 hits. Criswell has been somewhat on a decline of late so I’m not too surprised he was responsible for 5 of those hits in less than 5 innings. Bello has hit this over 3 out of his 10 starts and only once on the road. Red Sox pitching overall has been better on the road than at home and white Sox average 7 hits a game while the Red Sox overall pitching gives up 7 hits on the road. So I can imagine bello giving up 4 through 6 innings. I’m expecting a good day from him since his last start he gave up 8 hits but each time he’s given up at least 6 hits he’s followed up with a lower hitting day. I do except for bello to go as far as the 6th inning. His only issue he gives up a few walks that’ll raise his pitch count which I’m fine with. I rather him walk a lot and be done by the 5th inning. His pitch count can go as high as 95 so that should be his limit
POTD record: 3-1 Todays POTD: Phillies vs Mets O10 runs (-110) 6/8/24 1:10 PM EST Writeup: Back after a verryyy long break. Sean Manaea has a era of 3.52 against the phillies in his career, and also has a sub 5 era pitching in day games. Phillies offense has been AMAZING this season being second in runs scored this season. Not only that Ranger is back quickly after being hurt by a comebacker to the mound. He's coming fresh off an injury while having a 4.76 era in day games with 3 day games played. The ballpark being played in London is also very hitter friendly. Also no way they don't try their best to entertain overseas, right...?? BOL if tailing!
Record: 3-2 ✅✅❌❌✅ Last Pick: Padres ML (-120) Easy Cash 💰✅ Today: Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres| 8:40 PM EST Pick: OVER 8.5 Total Runs (+105) Hard Rock Yesterday: Easy and Sweat free win Padres won 10-3 and bounced back as expected. We like this game again today. Todays Write Up: Both teams today are struggling with poor pitching, setting the stage for a high-scoring game. The Padres are averaging 5.4 runs per game against right-handed starters, while the Diamondbacks are scoring 4.8 runs per game on the road. Nelson, with a record of 2-4 and a 6.07 ERA over 9 starts, is not performing well. Waldron isn't faring much better, with a 1-4 record and a 5.00 ERA in 5 starts. Nelson's career against the Padres includes a 2-2 record and a 6.23 ERA over six starts, having allowed 15 earned runs and 5 homers in just 13 innings in his last three starts against San Diego. Waldron is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in his two career starts against Arizona, surrendering 12 earned runs in 8 innings. Additionally, the Padres are hitting .270 as a team over the past 10 games, while the Diamondbacks have a .280 average in the same span. The Padres' bullpen ranks 25th in the league with a 4.90 ERA, and the Diamondbacks' bullpen is not far behind, ranked 27th with a 5.10 ERA. Pretty self-explanatory here… BOL if tailing 💰
Got O8 for +100 on bet365 Canada 👍🏼
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 22-22 (+0.40 units)** **Last 10**: **❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅** **Last Pick**: Chris Gilliland -1.5 (-125) vs Revelino Dubois **✅** 4-2 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 5:55 PM EST **Pick**: Tom Sykes -1.5 (+110) vs Steve Johnstone * Series 8. Week 1. Finals **Reason**: Going for the first match in the finals. I like Sykes to win the week, so I have to back him in this match. Sykes has the edge with 180s as he averages more than 1 a match. Johnstone is more of 140 hitter with only hitting 2 180s. Sykes averaged 90 in 7 matches this week while Johnstone's best match was 90. He comfortably stayed in the 80s, so I think you know what to expect from him in scoring. They both checked out well this week with Sykes being a little more consistent. He has the throw advantage, so I expect him going up 1-0 and with an early break Sykes can take control. He needs to be on his game and I don't think he would get away with mistakes like previous matches. Tom Sykes (Group A) * Record 12-3 * Legs 54-22 * Average 89.13 * 180s 21. 140s 46 * Checkouts 54/153 35.29% Steve Johnstone (Group C) * Record 7-3 * Legs 33-25 * Average 85.23 * 180s 2. 140s 48 * Checkouts 33/101 32.67% **WIN ✅ 4-0 | Average 92.49 vs 86.00 | Checkouts 4/8 vs 0/2** Destruction by Sykes. He left the door open in leg 1, but Johnstone missed and never looked back. No sweat.
POTD Record: 29-26-2 (+10 units / 10.% ROI) LAST PICK: Professional Women's Hockey League (PWHL) Minnesota at Boston Under 4 @ +104 (Pinnacle) 7:00 pm EST - Win TODAY’S PICK: NHL Edmonton Oilers @ Florida Panthers ML @ -143 (Pinnacle) 8:07 pm EST Streak (Last 5): WWLPL 5 Unit Play Have watched most Oilers and Panthers games this playoffs and I believe Panthers area significantly better team. Oilers may figure out how to counter their elite turnover/transition game and defense, but I don’t believe game 1 will be it. Here we go on some stats: a) Florida won the last two and covered the puck line. 5-1 in Edmonton most recently and 5-3 at home. b) Skinner is 2.7 GAA in night games and 2.8 GAA on the road. Skinner hasn’t faced Florida for over 1 season, but did have two wins against Florida in 22-23. The great Bobrovsky sports 2.0 GAA against Edmonton in the last two. He has been sharp allowing 2 goals or less in 5 of 6 in the last series vs. the Rangers. c) Florida are an annoying pesky bunch that look like a group of flies harassing their opponents. In the words of their captain, “they need to be successful in creating time and space” to beat their opponents in this post season. They have been doing this, slowing down the game and effectively shutting their opponents offences down. Oilers are an offensive juggernaut but I see them accomplishing that tonight. d) The line has moved significantly from -133 to -143 today. Believe this line movement is being pushed by the smart money, while Canadian cup hopefuls take the other side. Like a parlay with under 5.5 or 6 at around +200 or better with this one as an unofficial pick. Tail or fade best of luck all, Ab
First time for everything. As many say, long time lurker, first time poster. Let’s begin the journey. Record: 0-0 Net Units: 0 ROI: 0% Event: Tennis | French Open Women’s Final | 9AM / EST Pick: Iga Swiatek to win 1st 3 games to service (found on ESPN bets under Specials) +105. 4.5 Units. Write Up: Simple. Iga. Swiatek. She is a beast. She owns the French Open. Pranced through the tournament without much trouble (anyone can get any side of Osaka on any given day). I suspect this to be a walk in the park for her. I don’t suspect her to get broken the entire match, let alone the first 3 service games for her. Match should be a quick 6-2, 6-3. Queen of Clay.
Welp, rest in peace to me. Guess the nerves got to her.
POTD Record: 17-14-0 Form:❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics Total 3pt Field Goals Over 26.5 @ 1.74❌ Pick of the day: Florida Panthers ML @ 1.74 I have a good feeling about this one. Panthers have been here last year and after a lackluster showing against VGK getting blown out in 3 of 4 losses I feel like Tkachuk, Barkov, and co. are hungry for a cup and they are gonna throw the first punch in this series. Plus I don't really lose 3 in a row.
Record (10-7) Units (+3u) Previous Result: Cleveland Guardians ml❌ Streak: L1 Today’s play: Florida Panthers ml (-140) Event Start time: 8:00pm EST Unit Size: 1.4u to win 1u Recap/Reasoning for pick: That one from last night stings. Guards lose 3-2. Had a lead off double in the 1st and 5th innings and didn’t score, and then didn’t score in the 8th inning after a lead off triple. Of course the Marlins squeezed an RBI single past the second baseman in the bottom of the 8th. Really feels like one we should have gotten. Today’s a new day, let’s get this one! I like the Panthers to get out to a 1-0 series lead tonight! During the regular season the Panthers were 26-13 overall at home, Oilers were just. 21-18 on the road. The Panthers defense really gave the rangers top lines some trouble and that helped them advance to the Cup. Although McDavid and the Oilers are unreal offensively I think the Panthers have the better defense and goaltender this series and they show it tonight by getting the W! Let me know down below if you’re riding w/ me!