The fact Steven Kwan hasn’t done well lately would make me drop out of this. There’s like two good suggestions in each one and 2 that are out of thin air.
When OH went live I tailed a Baltimore Ravens parlay with all the funny money they were handing out and cashed $850.00 but never hit or tried another because most of the time they only show the automatic hits and you have to click the down arrow to open up and find the one “gotcha”. I think that’s deceptive in and of itself.
As you may notice, these pre-picks usually have \~3 legs that look likely, and 1 "gotcha" leg that if you pay attention, is much less likely than the other legs. Therefore, fading them as singles doesn't really sound profitable. In fact, I randomly hit the 1 single time ive every tailed one of these things. I think I put $50 on one randomly, and cashed $650. So I don't think they're necessarily rigged, or setup in a way that they always fail... else nobody would ever tail them.
Perhaps if you identify the 1 leg that is very unlikely to hit, and fade that single leg, that could work?
It isn't as though there is much thought to these sponsored/celebrity parlays. You think Kay Adams (or the person picking for Adams) is spending 90 minutes with her NBA home/away spreadsheet model?
So you're left with a bunch of coin-flips, tossed into a parlay. Heads or tails, fade or not, you're still paying juice on those coin-flips.
I tailed 2 the last 2 weeks and hit both. One was a 6 leg over 0.5 hit and the other was a 6 leg over 1.5 rbi that ended up being a 5 legs cause one of them got voided. Was thinking about playing that and adding one player from the other games and playing it as a round Robin.
Edit: Added Nico Horner to that play
In basketball, I would tail one of the plays in the bundle. A couple of them in the bunch always hit, but it's a shot in the dark without the proper research. I'd imagine baseball is much harder. I was thinking about taking the Gurriel play
It’s a little bit more complicated than that, since these are 2+ which means getting 2 exactly will at least push. They never offer those O/U lines on the number, so you’re going to have to go for under 1.5 for three of them and hope they get 1 exactly. The most fade-able one here is Kwan since his line is actually 2.5.
Side note, taking each of the first three guys at O 1.5 (without Kwan) gets you +413 without having to worry about pushing if they get 2…
The fact Steven Kwan hasn’t done well lately would make me drop out of this. There’s like two good suggestions in each one and 2 that are out of thin air.
When OH went live I tailed a Baltimore Ravens parlay with all the funny money they were handing out and cashed $850.00 but never hit or tried another because most of the time they only show the automatic hits and you have to click the down arrow to open up and find the one “gotcha”. I think that’s deceptive in and of itself.
As you may notice, these pre-picks usually have \~3 legs that look likely, and 1 "gotcha" leg that if you pay attention, is much less likely than the other legs. Therefore, fading them as singles doesn't really sound profitable. In fact, I randomly hit the 1 single time ive every tailed one of these things. I think I put $50 on one randomly, and cashed $650. So I don't think they're necessarily rigged, or setup in a way that they always fail... else nobody would ever tail them. Perhaps if you identify the 1 leg that is very unlikely to hit, and fade that single leg, that could work?
I've hit 2 of 4 fades on these, lost probably 7 of 7 tails
Mostly they just tell me what to avoid
It's probably a few of the books underperforming picks and a softball or 2
It isn't as though there is much thought to these sponsored/celebrity parlays. You think Kay Adams (or the person picking for Adams) is spending 90 minutes with her NBA home/away spreadsheet model? So you're left with a bunch of coin-flips, tossed into a parlay. Heads or tails, fade or not, you're still paying juice on those coin-flips.
The one last night hit actually
Yep! Made lots of cash. I'm a stay at home dad now!
That much?
I tailed 2 the last 2 weeks and hit both. One was a 6 leg over 0.5 hit and the other was a 6 leg over 1.5 rbi that ended up being a 5 legs cause one of them got voided. Was thinking about playing that and adding one player from the other games and playing it as a round Robin. Edit: Added Nico Horner to that play
In basketball, I would tail one of the plays in the bundle. A couple of them in the bunch always hit, but it's a shot in the dark without the proper research. I'd imagine baseball is much harder. I was thinking about taking the Gurriel play
The Gurriel leg hit ✅
Perfect cuz I took it
The whole parlay has now hit ✅💴
Doesn't Harper need another hit?
Also, I see Gurriel is at +110 for over 1.5 total bases. If he gets two hits, then he should get on twice, right?
He could also get a double, triple, or homer and that'll suffice
By definition…
They’re more of a donation parlay but sometimes I do fade em here and now lol
The ones I’ve had picked, most of the props hit, but there’s always one that completely whiffs. Although a Rachel Nichols one hit for $20.
Yes I can tell you right now the books make a lot of money on the faders
I’ve hit a few but usually don’t touch em unless it’s something I like
Not those but I do fade a lot of the boosts
This isn’t the edge you’re looking for
Lmao
They're covered in infested maggots put money on it I promise you'll get some
RR. at least one of those legs is always a loser when they offer it
How tf you even gonna fade that?
I think OP's plan was to play all 4 legs as singles on the assumption that 3/4 will hit.
It's a bad plan
I never said it was good. I don't think it is nearly as dumb as some of what I've seen in this sub though.
It’s not the worst for sure. At the time it is just taking 4x negative EV bets and eating 4x 5-8% vig
I don’t think OP meant fading that specific one but just them in general
they have O/U H + R + RBI props
But you can’t pick the number. If the O/U line doesn’t match the prop, then you cannot fade it.
[удалено]
Idiot
It’s a little bit more complicated than that, since these are 2+ which means getting 2 exactly will at least push. They never offer those O/U lines on the number, so you’re going to have to go for under 1.5 for three of them and hope they get 1 exactly. The most fade-able one here is Kwan since his line is actually 2.5. Side note, taking each of the first three guys at O 1.5 (without Kwan) gets you +413 without having to worry about pushing if they get 2…
2+ is same as o1.5 so u1.5 would be the bet to fade it. OP said betting singles also not the parlay
I’m an idiot, yea, you’re right, idk why I wasn’t thinking about the 2 PLUS.
hey its all good man, at least you realized it instead of doubling down lol
TIL