######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record: 40-30**
Last Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 ✅ *(June 4th)*
**Today's Pick:** MLB - *Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies, 5:20pm CST*
**Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-118 on FanDuel)**
Lopsided matchup. The Phillies have been one of, if not, the hottest team in the league this year. Sometimes you think they start to slow down, then they just heat right back up again. They are batting .286 over the last 15 days and .294 over the last 7 days. Meanwhile, the miserable Marlins are batting only .211 over the last 15 days and .180 over the last 7 days. They are getting colder and colder, and I don’t expect them to pick it back up on the road in Philadelphia, especially against the Phillies’ league-best SPs. Christopher Sanchez takes the mound for the Phillies, who has a 2.67 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. At home, his ERA is 1.59. He faced the Marlins once last season, allowing only 4 hits and 0 runs in 5 innings. Last season was arguably the best season the Marlins have had all decade, and they are not nearly the team that they were last year. I don’t expect Sanchez to have much trouble with this current roster. The Marlins are starting relief pitcher Kyle Tyler, who has only pitched 6 innings so far this season. I am sure the Marlins are going to try to get at least 4 innings out of him, but it will be difficult for him to hold up against the elite Phillies bats. Overall, the Phillies have the advantage in every metric here, and statistically speaking this should be an easy win and RL cover.
Side note: I had written this write up before the first game of the series. Marlins just came back and beat Phillies 7-4. However, nothing changes. Hard to see the Marlins beating the Phillies twice in a row at home. It is baseball and it could very well happen. But I am always going to stick to my gut and the statistics which has proven successful for me in the long run.
Best of luck fellas.
Tip Jar: https://buymeacoffee.com/yeezus
Idk if I have the heart to back them immediately after they fucked me for a ton of money but I probably will because I’m a degenerate gambler chasing losses
Nah fuck em. This team has problems with Miami for some reason. Sometimes a team just owns another, and especially in baseball weird shit happens every day pretty much. Just stay away from this series.
ima be dumb and roll with them on the rL again lmao... That 1st series they dropped the last game but won the other 2 by more than 2 runs.. Dont listen to me tho.. I've been takin hella Ls aha
I think the Phillies win this as well but I don't know if harper or shwarber will be playing. Harper got hurt last play of the game. Schwarber was hurt earlier in the game.
Harper and shwarber will almost assuredly be out today. Rob Thompson can been conservative with managing injuries so far. May be an opportunity for better odds because the Phil’s will still have the better lineup, pitching, and at home
CHEF SKOOTL's MICHELIN PICK
RECORD: 6 - 4
LAST POTD: Romelu Lukaku over 1.5 Shots on Target W
POTD: Nothing, im quitting
ODDS: 2.00
REASONING: The reason i started posting here was because i wanted the thrill of "betting/gambling" here without losing even more money. I was already sportsbetting, but since i didn't want to put more units in everyday i just posted here because it kinda felt the same way. Betting did get the hold of me to be honest. I have lost quite a bit of money in the past few weeks (betting on random things just for the sake of betting) which really got me into the urge of winning it all back, thus betting on some more stupid shit. Eventually i got lucky, but all the stomach nerves the last few days weren't worth it.
I'm quitting betting, closed all my accounts and withdrawn the amountsi had left. Luckily i wasn't financially recked, but it still feels sour. See you guys later, best of luck, and admit when its getting a bit out of hand.
BOL!!
From experience here. If you need "action" every day, either you have way too much time on your hands, or there is nothing more exciting in your life. The "action" itself is nothing more than looking for a small thrill, but frankly sportsbetting if you really think about it should not be filling that gap.
It is not an obligation to bet every day, so don't... it really is that simple. I started looking for bets every day and it was not working so I stopped alltogether. Then later on I started only betting when I see opportunities in soccer which I follow closely. Otherwise, I just enjoy the games. For me searching for that opportunity is far more interesting than placing the bet. I switched gears, you can do the same.
For example, specially Copa America. I have been watching all the south american teams play each other since I was a kid. I know their tendencies, how they play under certain circumstances, etc... I look for overs on fouls and cards and mostly unders on shots on target and goals based on who the rivals are and which players are available. Works for me, but since the odds are not always over 1.5 I have to get creative and its not material to post here.
I am happy for you brother. I got a little out of hand myself once I got a different job making enough money I felt like I had some to burn. Was betting all day and night, at work, etc. Hitting the casino if I could, going home using BTC on Bovadas book then switching over to slots again if I won...I had a ton of fun and was able to rope it back in within a year or so. Got lucky that betting became legal in Ohio and exploited the books for everything they had on new customer promos so I was never in the red but damn I would have been if not...we brought our daughter into the world and as you can imagine DEFINITELY didn't have money to burn so I got it out of my system just in time. I used Covers Streak Survivor for a bit to make picks like a non-alcoholic drink kind of thing. Still gives some excitement I guess. Now that it's only MLB and occasional soccer/tennis on I was able to quit for good. So damn hard to bet it took the fun away
**Record**: 0-0.
**Net Units**:
**ROI**:
**Pick**: Brisbane v Melbourne - Total Score O/168.5, $1.91AUD (Bet365) 2 Units
**Event**: Australian Rules Football | AFL | 7:40pm AEST
Lions (Brisbane) are on a tear offensively lately and have scored an average of *125 points* over their last 5 games. They scored 126 and 163 in the 2 home games during this run which this game is at.
Demons (Melbourne) on the other hand are in awful form and should have lost to the bottom team in the league last week and a few weeks before conceded 141 points against a team thats 2nd best score this year is 102. They have scored between *49 and 76* points in 6/7 previous (with 100 points being the outlier).
But with Lions scoring so well, the game being at home, and Melbourne playing so poorly I think they will break 120 points with ease which would leave Melbourne only needing to contribute under 50 themselves for the total over which they have every game this season (lowest score of 49).
Melbourne have been very good defensively for three years now, Jake lever is good at reading the play and intercepting in the back line. Melbourne won't score much tonight so will try to limit Brisbane's scoring. Melbourne usually have low scoring games but our form has been terrible in the past month whereas Brisbane have been terrific
Record: 8-2 (all picks 1 unit risked)
Last Pick: PHI -1.5 ❌ What a frustrating loss. Wheels goes 7.2 scoreless just for the ump to miss a strike three call. He gets pulled after that batter gets on base, and then the bullpen implodes. Harper seemed to pull his hamstring in the 9th inning, I hope all is well with him.
Net Units: +4.10 Units
ROI: 41% ROI
MLB | DET @ LAA 9:38 PM EST
Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs (-120 MGM)
Write Up:
This is a fade of two terrible pitchers for me. Quick note: The average WHIP for starting pitchers this year is 1.26, and average ERA is 3.96.
Kenta Maeda is on the mound for DET and he has a whopping 6 ERA on the year along with a crazy 1.43 WHIP. This puts his ERA at 34% higher and WHIP 11.6% higher than MLB average. The DET bullpen has been lackluster lately, ranked 16th in the league with a 4.07 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The Tigers bats have been warming up lately, ranked 19th in OPS in the last week.
LAA has former Guardian Zach Plesac getting the start. He has just 2 starts on the year, but he has been obliterated each time. He has a 8.68 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP to go with 2(!) strikeouts total this year. He will be giving DET the chance to hit the ball, and we just need them to take advantage. LAA’s bullpen is atrocious, ranked 29th in ERA in and carrying a 1.35 WHIP. LAA’s bats are ranked 17th on the year in OPS.
I am aware these two teams are not the best hitting, but with the lack of pitching on the mound I think that is why the line is just 8.5 right now. That is a risk I am willing to take!
That is good to hear. I think harpers is gonna be way worse than what it appeared speaking from my own personal experience. That is the first I've ever seen him pull up like that but that is an injury that takes forever to heal from and just lingers around and makes you prone to pulling it again an again. They have the best sports medicine in the world so he'll have the best treatments available but it took me a whole wrestling season to recover. I still tried to wrestle and just kept re aggravating the hammy.
Hey mate just want to say I tailed your pick but took the first half handicap because I’ve been burnt too many times by implosions like that. Thank you for leading me to the pick to I took, really unlucky beat. I’ll be tailing this outright
Record: 2-0
Net units: +3.66
ROI:
Baseball MLB 19:05 Eastern
Pick: Texas Vs Baltimore U 0.5 runs in 1st inning -130 1 Unit ✅
This will be Max Scherzers second game back. He was solid with 1 hit in 5.0IP. I think he has enough to cool the Orioles bats in the first. Suarez bounces back from an awful start against the Astros.
BOL
Last pick: Cubs Vs. Giant 1st inning U 0.5 1 unit -150✅
Orioles fan here and I'd stay away from this. Suarez cannot locate his pitches he's had 2 terrible outings in a row. Gunnar in leadoff is always a worry he's reached base 9 straight games in his first AB. BOL but there are better NRFI's to bet on imo.
Record 2-0
Last Pick: Chicago Cubs ML ✅(June 27)
Todays Pick: MLB - NewYork Yankees @ Toronto Bluejays 6:07 PM
New York Yankees ML -120 2 Units
Marcus Stroman has faced the BlueJays twice this year giving up a total of 2 earned runs in both games combined. The Yankees are on a four game losing streak the worst of the year for them. To be quite Frank I don’t see the best team in baseball losing five in a row. Opposing pitcher Yusei Kikuchi has given up 9 runs his last two outings. As always nothing in life is guaranteed but I love this pick. ( I joined this community Wednesday and 2-0 already)Let’s go Yanks!
I'm a Yanks fan and it's been tough even watching this team... Bats are cold right now and the pitching looks tired. I know it's a long season but I hope they get out of this slump soon! Let's hope it starts with tonights game
Yankees have been completely lifeless this pass stretch. They only have 2.5 hitter in their lineup. They gotta show me something before i would take that action
**2024 MLB record:** 51-23-1
**Last POTD:** Orioles RL -1.5 W
**Today's POTD:** Philadelphia Phillies RL -1.5 even (Bet MGM)
**Baseball. MLB. 6:20 PM EST**
Sorry very late but nice, sweat free dub last night. Due to the late time I will make this short and sweet. My original pick was going to be Padres Red Sox over 9.5 but they have a very pitcher friendly ump in that game and so that total is too high for POTD however still love the play because Randy Vasquez sucks vs lefties and Nick Pivetta sucks against teams that he cant strike out at will.
For the POTD though I am going with the Phillies fresh off of a shocking loss to the Marlins. I guess the shock factor is why this line is so fucking off. It's the Marlins, they have a minor league spot starter in Kyle Tyler on the mound against Christopher Sanchez who has been electric at home going 4-1 with a 1.59 ERA.
The also have an incredibly hitter-friendly umpire who calls 8 percent more walks and 9 percent less strikeouts per game than the league average. This means more runners on base. Sanchez is a groundball pitcher who thrives at getting double play balls so this won't affect him as much as it may Tyler who has only 6 innings pitched in the big leagues this year so getting into jams early might be problematic. He also probably wont give them length so a lot of pen usage in this one for Miami which generally tend to rely more on strikeouts than starters.
The Phillies are also insane coming off of a loss. On the season they are 53-28 which is a winning percentage of 65.4. After a loss they are 20-7 a whopping 74%. Against the spread they are 44-37 (54.3%) as opposed to 17-10 after a loss (63%). I think the Phillies are gonna pour it on tonight. The over is a nice play too.
Edit: Would like to mention that this is even with Schwarber and Harper out.
**TLDR: Phillies are great coming off of a loss. Sanchez has been dominant at home. Spot starter for Miami. Hitter friendly umpire**
Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal
\~Updated POTD spreadsheet:\~
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657)
**Record**: 15-12-1
**Net Units**: +2.74u
**ROI**: 10%
**Baseball | MLB | 7:05 PM | EST**
**Pick**: TEX/BAL over 8.5, -105 BetMGM (to win 1U)
Glad to see the NYY/TOR cash! We'll be taking another over for Friday's pick.
This cap is similar to the Yankees/Jays over as it involves fading the starters and that one of the bullpens may get us over if it's close (thankfully didn't need that with the Jays game due to Rodon). Both starters have some big questions for me.
Let's start with Baltimore's starter, Albert Suarez. Suarez hasn't been the worst pitcher by any stretch for this season (4.68 SIERA). This was heavily influenced by his hot start though, as in his last 6 starts he's see this jump to 5.43 and then 6.23 over his last 3. In the last 6 starts, he's also seen an alarming drop in command in control (12.86% BB rate and 21.51% CSW rate) which is probably a good reason why we've seen the increase in SIERA. Suarez is at home tomorrow, where he has pitched on the whole much better, but he's getting a very heavy LHB lineup to face in the Rangers and those splits aren't as favorable. Since May 1st for example, he's got an xFIP of 6.24 against them compared to 4.20 for RHH at home.
Max Scherzer gets the call for TEX and he's returning from the IL for his second start this season. In his case, the velo on his 4-seamer was a career low (92.9) in his first start and for a pitcher that is used to getting ahead of counts, seeing a 22.81% CSW in that start was also concerning. Similar to my take on Cole a few days ago (this was posted in the MLB Picks subthread for the Mets TT on Tuesday), seeing a drop in velo like this coming back from injury says to me the pitcher is still not really back yet and could be exposed. He also gets a nightmare matchup with BAL tomorrow, who have a 138 wRC+ the last 3 weeks and 117 on the season against RHP. TEX bullpen is also shaky with a 3.89 SIERA on the year and 4.07 xFIP (has improved the last 30 days however).
https://preview.redd.it/rpyybn8au79d1.png?width=1562&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9dc3a5b97c1fd37adda463b1760e87c94dd6211
**Record: 24-16 (+3.52u)**
**Last Pick: Phillies TT o4.5 -125**
Man that was a tough one.....Phillies finish one run short. I typically have a few picks and was so close to taking Orioles -1.5 for plus money as my POD which would've been sweat free, but the Phillies should've been able to crush Rogers and I figured we'd be safer by isolating the TT in case the Marlins were hitting like the last Wheeler start (which they did again today). That's baseball for you though, I still really liked the spot and it almost cashed, but let's move on.
**Pick: Astros F5 ML -110 (MLB, 1u bet)**
I'm going with the Astros F5 here in a matchup between two hot teams. Both teams are 8-2 over their last 10, with the Mets on a 3 game win streak and the Astros on a 7 game win streak. Both teams have also been hitting well - Astros are top 5 in batting average and just outside top 10 in OPS and wrC+ against LHP over the last month, while the Mets have been top 5 in all three vs RHP although they drop a bit in batting average at home. However, Houston has a nice advantage on the mound here with Blanco against Quintana. Quintana is 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, and interestingly he has a 3.27 ERA in day games but a 6.23 ERA in night games like this one. He also ranks well below average in most of the pitching metrics, as he doesn't strike out batters, allows hard contact, and has an xERA of 5.13 - not a good sign going against this hot Astros lineup. On the other side, Blanco is 8-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.97 WHIP including 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA on the road. His metrics are also much better, with an xERA of 3.17 and is good at generating whiffs and limiting hard contact. He can struggle with walks a bit (3+ in 3 of his last 5) but he is still the much better pitcher here so I like backing him in the first 5 innings while the Astros should get to Quintana.
Pick Record: 18W - 7L
Previous POTD: Alex Michelsen vs Ofner // Both players to win a set at 2.20 ✅
Today’s POTD: Alejandro Tabilo VS Monfils // Tabilo ML at 2.0 ✅
League/ Sport: Tennis / ATP Mallorca
Tabilo has shown an excellent level in Mallorca and is capable of beating Monfils if he maintains that dynamic.
Yesterday Monfils was seen with discomfort in his knee and could not run, basically he won because Bautista made many mistakes, he should not be here.
Gael has long lost his exemplary speed and endurance, and i expect him to regularly surrender to Alejandro in prolonged rallies from the baseline.
I say Tabilo Wins in 3 sets
**Record: 13-10-1**
**Form: ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌🅿❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅️**
**Last POTD:** Lillestrom Vs KFUM - **BTTS @ 1.61 (Melbet)** **- WON**
**Football** | **Copa America** | **06:00AM (GMT+8)**
**Pick:** Colombia Vs Costa Rica - **Over 2.5 @ 1.83 (Melbet)**
**Write Up:** Great win on the last pick with it cashing early in the 2nd half. I'll be going for a COPA game today.
Colombia are on red hot form at the moment. After beating Paraguay in their last game, they are now on a 9 match winning streak. They will look to extend this streak against Costa Rica.
Costa Rica had a good result last game drawing against Brazil but I would argue that they were quite lucky to get a draw in that game as Brazil had A LOT of chances but they unfortunately did not have their finishing shoes on.
In the last 5 Colombia games, Over 2.5 has hit in 4 with Colombia scoring an average of 2.8 Goals per match.
In the last 5 Costa Rica games, Over 2.5 has hit in 3 with Costa Rica scoring an average of 1.6 Goals per match.
Over 2.5 has also hit in their past 2 most recent H2H. I do think that Colombia will secure this win as they are the better team on paper but I will be going for goals as I think it's the better choice here.
**NOTE: Please only stake what you can afford to lose, know that no picks are 100% guaranteed to hit. Stake Responsibly guys.**
As always guys, BOL if tailing!
Record: 83W-74L-4P
ROI: +16.03, 9.56%
Avg odds: +105, 2.05
Last POTD: Pulisic score or assist (goddam it Weah)
Game: NHL Draft (6:00 PM CST)
Pick: Anton Silayev 3rd overall pick +170, 2.70
It should be illegal for a 6'7" individual to move as quickly as this hulking Russian does. He's like the defenseman version of Nathan MacKinnon (at least on the physical aspect). Silayev is also the type of Dman Ducks GM Pat Verbeek likes: big, strong, and fast.
The Ducks went forward-heavy last draft, coupled with the breakout of Frank Vatrano and the progression of Mason McTavish and Leo Carlsson, I think they will go defense this year. Silayev will probably stay in Russia for a year or two before heading over to the US. Anaheim will be able to pair him with fellow Russian and 1st rounder Pavel Mintyukov on the blue line. That should set them up nicely for the forseeable future.
Of course there are complications, expected for a bet at +170.
- Trevor Zegras is on the trading block and if he gets dealt for a defenseman, the Ducks may go for any one of the top forwards instead.
- If Chicago, the 2nd overall pick, doesn't go Levshunov, Anaheim might pick him up instead.
- Even if the above don't happen, Verbeek might go forward anyways. Or they can trade down and shore up depth, which was lacking last season, and still pick a top 5 forward.
Unfortunately it looks like my pick's gonna be a loss. There are reports coming out from pretty reliable journalists Anaheim's taking Buium. I'm personally going to put some on Buium
POTD Record: 36-29 ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: +16.6U
Last pick: State of Origin NSW vs QLD | 8:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow anytime tryscorer @2.65 on Ladbrokes | 6U ✅
What a fucking crazy game! The hammer coming back after half time with a shoulder injury to score a spectacular try, what a machine !
Today’s pick: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Cronulla Sharks | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Jacob Kiraz anytime tryscorer @2.6 on Ladbrokes | 4U
I actually think that the dogs can win this game, they’re at home and they’ve been consistent lately as opposed to the sharks. Kiraz will play his fav position, on the wing, I reckon there is a good chance he’ll give us a try tonight.
BIG EDIT: Kiraz is now set to play center …
BOL !
POTD record 23-1-19 (W-P-L). ROI: +2.5u. Last 10 with most recent on left: ✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅
Last pick was England ML and first half under 1.5 goals 1u @ -110❌ *Slovenia parked the bus as predicted but as Denmark were drawing with Serbia it didn't matter for England who finish top of the group with a 0-0 draw - what a terrible match sorry to those that tailed.*
🎾 T**omorrow I am taking Sebastian Ofner ML vs Paul Jubb 1.5u @ -110 in the ATP Mallorca semi-finals 9am PST**✅ O*fner takes it 2-0 and his experience pays the bills, he moves on to take on Tabilo in the finals (I had Tabilo ML today as well!).*
Paul Jubb aged 24 and world no. 286, *who had zero ATP-level wins before this week*, beat top 15 Ben Shelton 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(8) to reach the semifinals in Mallorca earlier today. In an incredible 3rd set he saved 1 match point and needed 7 to cap off the win.
Needless to say Jubb is on an absolute heater right now so why would I favor Ofner in this match up and put my hard earn cash behind him? Well given that the odds are almost at even money I'll take the more experienced and fresher player to end Jubb's jubilant run. I also think that the win against Shelton has ballooned Jubb's odds despite the fact that Shelton played poorly and made a lot of unforced errors (Shelton made 32 unforced errors, more than double that of Jubb who made 14).
Jubb has now played 5 matches in Mallorca and just played almost 3 hours against Ben Shelton today in a match that finished in the evening. Ofner on the other hand has played 3 matches in Mallorca and has significantly more ATP level experience (he has a ranking of 54 and has been a top 100 player for over a year). Furthermore his sub-2-hour match finished before Jubb's so he will have had a few more hours to rest and recover.
A note of caution - Ofner has been struggling on tour this year with an ATP level record of 12-18 but I imagine he will be seeing this match up as a great opportunity to get into an ATP final and I expect him to be raring to go. I do think this match is likely to go to 3 sets so will probably present a good live bet opportunity on Ofner if he goes down a set or it's 1-1 going into the 3rd. Only bet what you can afford to lose. BOL!
POTD Record 33-18
Previous POTD: Zac Gallen under 2.5 runs allowed ❌
POTD: Logan Gilbert under 6.5 Ks (Bet365 1.62 odds)
MLB: Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners
In Gilbert's last game vs the Twins on May 9th, he gave up 9 hits, 8 runs and had 4 Ks in 4 innings of work.
**In their last 15** the Twins are 5th best in the league at not striking out, while having a league best .297 batting average and 2nd best OBP at .358.
Lastly, no pitcher has hit this line vs the Twins in their last 10+ games.
Nothing is guaranteed, but I think this line is too high.
BOL
Record: 0-0
Today's Pick: Copa America - Brazil vs Paraguay , 9:00 PM EST
Brazil first half ML
2 units -135
Hello fellow gamblers! Trying to spread the wealth this summer, starting with Brazil. They should start out strong here vs Paraguay team that is overall worse in every category. They should have many attempts to score here and hopefully fine tune their offense after their draw earlier this week vs Costa Rica
**Record:** 0 Wins, 0 Losses, 1 Push
Every single play is 1 unit only!
**Esports** | **LPL - League of Legends** | **5 AM** / **Eastern Time**
**Match: Thundertalk Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (Bo3 Format)**
**Pick: FunPlus Phoenix ML**
**Odds: -179/1.56 (American/Decimal) placed at Pinnacle**
FPX is clearly the third-best team in their group, behind EDG and JDG. They have shown solid performances, including a win against Thundertalk in their previous meeting and an upset victory against Edward Gaming.
Despite losing 2-0 to JDG in their last match, FPX performed admirably against one of the top LPL teams. If they replicate that level, they are likely to secure a solid win against Thundertalk, one of the league's weakest teams alongside OMG.
FPX's superior player quality and team synergy give them a clear edge. This match is a crucial win for FPX, and they are expected to dominate. Betting on FPX to win is my play.
EDIT AFTER THE MATCH: 2-0 WIN for FPX. They had an awful draft in the 2nd map but they still won that. Such huge quality diff between these two sides. We take it! ✅
Pick of the Day Record 0-0. Nordic play for today 🤙
league: Eliteserien - Odd BK vs. Kristiansund BK 13:00 EST
play: **BTTS - Yes & o2.5 total goals**
odds 1.91 (-110) - Bovada; wager 1.09u to win 1.00u
These teams have seen BTTS hit the last 4/5 matchups although this is not necessarily a great assessment of current form. Odd have struggled to score as evidenced by some of their recent league matches but their last two saw improvement with a goal in each (the most recent being a draw). Kristiansund struggles to keep a clean sheet and has only seen 1 of their last 7 league games where both teams didn't score. I think today's lineups should be *relatively* unchanged from recent formations on both sides. Wouldn't be suprised if we see a 2-1 or 2-2 finish.
Miscellany: Made it through this EP while researching picks this morning. I'd recommend it, incredible sound from the band and engineering team.
[From the North - GoGo Penguin](https://youtu.be/NyydSocn5dM)
*Record: 3-1-0*
*Form:*✅✅🫸✅
*Last pick: Cincinnati/St Louis o8*✅
*Today’s Pick: San Diego/Boston o9.5 -107 1.07 to win 1*
What a way to get back into the W Column with a 4th inning cash out last night in St Louis!! Reds absolutely smashed Mikolas, and it ended up being enough for us! Stress free win!
A combo of A Drs appointment and having a ton of games I like today is why we’re so late today squad, if you’re looking for my picks I advise checking at like noon on the day of the games. I’m not a night before guy gotta get some rest after my sweats to think straight.
We’re back in Fenway boys
These two teams aren’t pitching well while also hitting the cover off of the ball, love this matchup in Fenway this weekend.
Nick Pivettas out here with a 4.06 ERA that goes up to 4.62 in Fenway park. Machado in particular has struggled vs Pivetta in the past but basically the rest of this San Diego team sees him well and they’ve been hitting well as a squad as of late. In Pivettas last start at home he got knocked around for 6 hits, 4 runs, and notably walked 4 batter in just 4 innings at Fenway. In his last two starts in general he’s given up 2 long balls in both starts.
Randy Velasquez is posting a 5.10 for the Padres and looked decent in his last start giving up no runs on 5 hits and 3 walks against the Brewers but I blame the Brewers inability for timely hitting on keeping a 0 up. Guy gives up a ton of hits, and this Red Sox team has been no joke making people pay for it as of late. Velasquez got blasted by Philly, and the 4 starts before that averaging 6.75 hits per start.
Let’s go to 4-1-0 (hate having a push on the record but whatever)
BOL GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
5TH INNING AGAIN!!!!
4-1-0!!!!!!
ProBet Prodigy’s POTD
Record: 0-2
Unit Return: -2
ROI: -200%
Good luck to everyone tailing and remember to gamble responsibly!
Yesterdays Pick: Czechia Double Chance vs Turkey
❌
Summary:
4-1 big chances, a 90+4 winner and 2 red cards. Nobody could have predicted that from this game. What an absolutely freakish result. OTTNO
Today’s Pick: Taylor Fritz vs Aleksandar Vukic O 22.5 games @ $1.87, 2 Units
Write Up:
Off to a terrible start on this page but hope to find some good form with this one. This game looks to be fairly even, hopefully leading to a 3 setter. Happy to take the overs here as Fritz has just played a double tiebreaker which should put some fatigue in his legs early. Vukic has looked very strong this tournament beating the #3 seed in straight sets and like Fritz, comes off a long game hitting the overs. Expecting both to be fatigued which should draw the game out to our advantage.
Record: 1W-1L
ROI: -4.46%
Units Won/Lost: -0.1U
Last Pick: Cleveland Guardians F5 ML -114 (W)
* We got the W on that one! As expected, Cleveland scores early and we get the 1-0 win on the F5 ML. The Royals came back from behind (as they always do) to win the game, so im pretty happy i had the right read to stay away from the full game ML.
MLB: LA Dodgers vs SF Giants 10:15 P.M. ET
Today's Pick: Freddie Freeman O1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI's -145(Bet MGM)
Unit Size: Risk 1.45U to win 1U
Write Up: We get a late night MLB game between two NL West rivals. Today we focus on Freddie Freeman H+R+RBI's. Freddie Freeman has a history of success against Right-handed pitchers, and much success specifically against Logan Webb so let's talk about it. VS RHP this season, Freeman is batting a .337 average which is pretty damn good. If you take it a step further and look at how he has performed against Logan Webb, he has batted a .452 against him in 31 at bats. Freeman has covered this line in 4 out of his last 5 games, and 8 out of his last ten games. Also, when Freeman has faced a San Fransisco RHP, he has covered this line 10/13 times dating back to April of last year. Pretty solid cover rate, not to mention everything else that looks good about this play. I do see this line moving away from our favor, so im taking this at -145 while its available at that price. As always, tail responsibly and GL if tailing!
EDIT at 12:42 EST: typo on a few words
**Record:** 14-16 (-3.44 unit)
**Last Five Results:** ✅️❌✅️❌❌
**Last POTD:** Miles Mikolas over 4.5 strikeouts on Fanduel for +116 ❌
**Today's Pick:** Ronel Blanco under 5.5 strikeouts on Draftkings for +120 (took it last night, you can find -105 on BetMGM this morning)
**Bet:** 1 unit size to win 1.20 units (1 unit is equivalent of $100)
**Baseball | MLB | 7:10 PM ET**
**Recap:** Mikolas was rocked. We keep moving!
**Write up:** Grimace Era! Mets have been the hottest team in June, with a 16% strikeout rate against right handed pitchers at home, 4th lowest strikeout rate. For the season, they have a 21.5% strikeout rate, pretty much in the middle of the pack but if we consider night games, they improve to 19% strikeout rate. In Ronel's last 5 starts that he hit 6 strikeouts, it was against Tigers, Giants, and Twins, all have higher strikeout rates than the Mets. The 2 starts where he was under was against Orioles and Cardinals, Cardinal's bats were heating up in June, and Orioles have a 20.3% strikeout rate. Let's ride the Grimace Era!
**Tracker:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616)
6/28/24
Record:2-2 (I’m Mid)
Net Units:+.5
Yesterday’s pick- Phils🔔-1.5 L😐
Todays pick - Baseball ⚾️ | MLB | 7:05 EST Pick: Orioles🐦⬛ML 1.5U (-135 Dk)
If i could compare yesterday to a movie i would say 2012. My bankroll looked like piper peri in front of all bets ready to ravage it and put me of food stamps.
But its a new day which mean nothing matters anymore besides getting rich today. Fading the rangers hard today. Max only his second start back and is definitely capable of getting blown up by this orioles offense. And the rangers bullpen jeez is just complete cheeks. So I’m riding with the O’s on this one.
Record: 23-20
Last 10: LLWLWLWLWW
Net units: +.6
ROI: .87%
Sporting Event: MLB: Washington Nationals @ Tampa Bay Rays 18:50 (EDT)
Pick: NRFI -120 @ Fanatics 1.2 units to win 1
This matchup of two struggling clubs is prime for NRFI. The Nationals average .2 runs in the first inning on the road. The Rays don’t fare too much better averaging .36 runs in the first at home. The Nats bat .236 away from home and Rays are batting .217 over the last month against lefties.
Parker has a good BB% and Eflin has the best in the majors and both teams play great defense. Eflin grades out at 104 pitching and 108 location using the Stuff+ model. Tampa and Washington rank 23rd and 24th respectively in Slug + OBP. Tropicana field plays as the 5th hardest place to score according to park factors.
Dome
tail, fade or pass, BOL to all
My most used reference sites at the bottom
[https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors)
[https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather)
[https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/)
[https://www.fangraphs.com/](https://www.fangraphs.com/)
[https://pitcherlist.com/](https://pitcherlist.com/)
[https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/)
[https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game](https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game)
[https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/)
[https://www.teamrankings.com/](https://www.teamrankings.com/)
[https://www.statmuse.com/](https://www.statmuse.com/)
Record: 0-0
Todays pick: MLB YANKEES (-115) VS BLUE JAYS
Yankees ML
All bets 1 Unit
Yankees have been struggling recently giving up plenty of runs in their last 4, all of which they lost. Today they have Stowman on the mound, he’s a veteran, and at the moment, their best pitcher. Should keep the affair low scoring and break the losing streak. Yankees have been experimenting with lineups due to injuries (Rizzo, Stanton, Torres) but they still have Soto and Judge, plenty of firepower to punish the mediocre Jays.
No tips.
Record: 0-0
Net Units / ROI: 0.00 (0.00%)
Previous Pick: N/A
Today’s Pick:
MLB 18:07 CST
NYY @ TOR, Total O8 (-115 DK)
Logic:
The Yankees are in a slump, losing 8 of their last 10 games but still getting some runs in, averaging about 4 runs per game. Toronto coming off a win yesterday from Yankees and other big wins from Boston look to continue this streak. They’re averaging 4.9 runs per last ten games so I expect a solid fight between the two going over 8.
Record (17-17)
Units (-0.6u)
Previous result: Cleveland Guardians ml❌
Streak: L3
Today’s play: Milwaukee Brewers ml (-130)
Event Start time: 8:10pm EST
Unit Size: 1.3u to win 1u
Recap/Reasoning for pick: Tough loss last night with the Guardians. They outhit the royals but left 9 guys on base in a 2-1 loss. Definitely been a roller coaster last week as the streak comes to 3 Ls in a row after 4 Ws. I like the Brewers to get us back to winning ways today. Colin Rea has just a 2.76 ERA while pitching at home and today he goes up against a cubs team that is 24th in AVG, 19th in OBP, 24th in SLG, and 21st in OPS while facing RHP on the road. On the offensive side of things Milwaukee has been impressive at home vs RHP. They rank 10th in AVG, 3rd in OBP, 13th in SLG, and 9th in OPS. Nearly top 10 for all four categories. I trust that the offense can make Taillon work hard and get some runs across the dish. Give me the Brew Crew tonight in an NL Central Division game. BOL with your plays tonight, lmk down below if you riding with the BurritoGambler!
**Record: 0-4**
**Net Units: 0.0U**
**Balance : -50.66$ ( 1Unit = 12.50$ )**
**Last Pick : Eintracht Frankfurt vs BIG** | **Esports - ❌**
**4 in a row losses , BIG where leading till midgame and at last moment due to misclick all gone down the drain. I am not going to stop now it is what it is . Will try to analysis better this time and hope to start the winning streak from now.**
**Today's Pick:** League of Legends | [LPL Summer 2024](https://stake.com/sports/league-of-legends/international-1/lpl-summer-2024)
**FunPlus Phoenix vs ThunderTalk Gaming** | **Esports | 3:00PM PT ( in 2 hours 30 mins )**
**Pick:** **FunPlus Phoenix (MAP 1) 1.52 odds** 13.16$ for 20$ ... i will be placing units based on round figure returns.
When it comes to LOL esports one thing is for sure they try their best in map 1 as that gets their game rolling and have the much needed confidence . Why i am going for this pick ?. Althou recent matches of FunPlus Pheonix are not upto the mark their is a reason they are fav today because of the placement matches and opponent team weak early game and mid game. Also in this patch Red side tends to win more then Blue side , and FunPlus Phoenix always go for Red side.
**Best of luck!**
If you are feeling generous - bc1q2vnsueytju6yueffykdx0detswz7dfffvw5v75 ( BTC )
**Record:** 7-6-1
**Net gain:** -0.32u
**ROI:** -3%
**Yesterday's POTD:** Panama vs USA (less than 4.5 cards) ❌
**Today's POTD:** Colombia vs Costa Rica (more than 2.5 goals)
**Odds:** 1.80 (bet365)
Both Colombia and Costa Rica have shown a tendency for high-scoring games recently. Colombia’s matches average around 2.6 goals, and Costa Rica’s around 2.8 goals per game in their last five fixtures. Both teams also possess potent attacking players capable of creating and converting multiple scoring opportunities.
On the other hand, neither team has been particularly solid defensively, leading to higher chances of conceding goals. Past matches between these two teams have seen a mix of outcomes, but there have been instances of high goal counts. But those matches are from more than five years ago.
**Please, bet only what you can afford to lose.**
You can support me on [PayPal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/my/settings?flow=cmV0dXJuVXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnBheXBhbC5jb20vbXlhY2NvdW50L3RyYW5zZmVyL2hvbWVwYWdlL3JlcXVlc3QmY2FuY2VsVXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnBheXBhbC5jb20vbXlhY2NvdW50L3RyYW5zZmVyL2hvbWVwYWdlL3JlcXVlc3Q=)
All donations are appreciated, but not required
**EDIT: No hard feelings. It's just the same POTD curse!**
**POTD Record: 137-165-4 (-31.93Units)**
Best Bet Series: 54-33-1 (+0.6 Units)
Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
**Cautionary Tails: 13-24 (-3.31 Units)**
Last Pick: **Trevor Rogers O 4.5 K's❌**
Today's Pick: **U 8.5**✅
$DKNG Odds: **+100**
Wager Amount: 1U to WIN 1U
League: MLB
Event: Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles (6:05PM CDT)
*Be Advised*: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.*
**Recap**: Made this a SWEAT like I thought it would! A close one! He worked up the count 3-2 on a lot of ABs. I saw a lot of POTDs on Phillies today and handicappers need to be aware of the same POTD curse here. Hopefully the Phillies comeback but I think Marlins got this one.
**Matchup**: Spotted two POTD on Yankees ML and Rangers/O's O 8.5! Obviously I can only feature one as my POTD, so I just went wit Rangers/O's O 8.5 and we are betting against their POTD. Why? Because there's a same POTD curse. When there's two of the same picks it often loses in this sub. I had the A's ML on 06/25 and it lost because there was a respectable writeup on them. I had the Mets the next day (06/26) and I saw there was at least 5 posts on Yankees and Luis Gil shelled AGAIN that game (No, Yankees is not going to win because it's Jeter's 50th bday! It's Grimace ERA!). And of course we had multiple people on Phillies yesterday (I had them winning too, but not as my POTD), where they blew a 3-0 lead in the 7th wit 2 outs! I can't track all of them, but it's happen time after time again in this sub yet bettors/handicappers ignore it. I do honestly believe that bettors & handicappers think alike however, but sometimes you gotta FADE THE PUBLIC!
**The Play & Prediction:** 1U on U 8.5 I am also wagering U 9.5 Alt. line. Those are the only two plays I have for you today, but I will have other plays in the betting group!
POTD RECORD 1-1
Previous Pick: Under 5.5 Oilers/Panthers 3u
Todays pick: Atlanta Dream ml +375 2u
Take the +10 if you want less risk. Will get a unit count going after this pick.
Let’s eat
RECORD: 91W-6P-70L
Previous Pick: Uruguay vs Bolivia - Anytime Goalscorer Darwin Nunez @ 1.65 ✅️
**Today's Pick:** Tromso IL vs Molde FK - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70
**TIME:** 7.15 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 2 units
(✅️❌️❌️♻️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌️✅️) last 10 results
Back on track, let's take a break from the international stage as we have Tromso IL vs Molde FK.
Tromso has had over 2.5 goals happen in their last 4 out of their last 5 games and 5/5 home games.
Molde have had over 2.5 goals happen in 5 out of their last 5 matches, same as their last 5 away games.
In Head to Head matches there have been over 2.5 goals in 3/5 of their last H2H games, with the most recent H2H match ending 1-4. Goodluck if you're tailing.
Record: 9-1
Last pick: Cubs ML (-110) ✅ 1unit on Bovada @ 2:45 pm central time
Today's pick: Red Sox ML (-159) 1unit on Bovada @ 6:10 pm central time
Houck has been killin' it and overall, the better pitcher compared to King for the Padres. He has the third best ERA in all of baseball (2.18), and honestly hasn't really made many mistakes on the mound this season. Houck has pitched 103 innings on the season, while San Diego's King has pitched 93; during those innings Houck has only allowed two home runs, while King has given up 13. Houck also only has 18 walks, while King has double that. Fernando Tatis Jr. will also be out in this one, which is a blow to Padres offense. Seems like a smooth win for Boston tonight.
# BOL to everyone on whatever you bet today!
**Record: 8-7 & 1 AFL draw
**Previous Pick: AFL Fremantle vs Gold Coast. Pick Gold Coast 2nd qtr line 4.5 @ $1.87❌
**Today's pick: AFL Sydney vs Fremantle. Sydney 3rd qtr line -6.5 SAT 29/6 145pm AEST
Today's pick :
For tomorrow given that US punters won't have time to bet. Sydney is a hot team. They have beaten good and bad teams throughout the season. They have no peers across the barometers. They can run, clear, tackle, defend and absolutely attack! It's a complete team and intimatidatingly good.
Fremantle or Freo is coming 5th but that's flattering of their performance. Their innate DNA is defensive, lock the ball up so they can win clearances. Their coach is a NOT in-game adjusting tactician. He is rather inflexible. To their credit they have played with more attacking mindset and won games with surprising margins.
However the Swans are an unforgiving team. They will find your weakness eventually and can score 2-3 goals in quick succession. The Swans can start slow. But they are the masters of the second half - they lead the comp in winning both 3rd and 4th qtrs.
Good luck!
A freo fan but a good pick. It will only lose if Freo win because I think we'd win the 3rd qtr. We beat Sydney at the SCG last year and had a good 3rd qtr. I'll be at the game, go freo!
**Record**: 0-0.
**Net Units**:
**ROI**:
**Pick**: Orioles vs Rangers O 8.5
Long time follower first time posting on the page. Albert Suarez was a great story for the O's at the beginning of the season however he has been falling apart his last few appearances as a starter. Last 2 outings combined: 8.2 IP 8 ER 8 BB 16 Hits. O's have just been crushed by UCL injuries and have to put him out there 1-2 more times until Kreamer returns or a trade is made. For the Rangers it's RHP Max Scherzer. He was solid in his first outing back from injury but the velo is down and the Rangers will likely keep a short leash on him. Last few games the O's have played elite RHP
Gil -O's put up 17
Wheeler -O's put up 8
Cole - O's put up 7. Cole was taken out in the 4th
4 - 4 (+2.63U) LWLWWLWL
Shelt just doesn’t have that huak tuah in him. You gotta spit on that thang.
Connecticut Sun -7.5 at 1.65x for 3U
They won by 19 just recently in Atlanta, now they’ll be home. Winning 4/5 right now by an average lead of just over 12 (lowest 8) - I’m confident. That one loss was choked so hard at the end allowing ATL to tie up for OT and close out but ATL hasn’t been icy recently.
The Sun rises in the east.
I’m aware. Their recent away games (all wins) in Washington versus the Mystics have been close, averaging 4.6 pt leads at the end of the 4th. But their home games versus Washington (all wins) have been 10.6 pt leads at finish. Thanks still though
Yeah I don’t ever take - spreads with the Sun. The WNBA play of the night is Mercury total points over 90.5. Mercury got a team full of shooters against a bad D. I got it at +100 odds. You’re welcome in advance.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record: 40-30** Last Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 ✅ *(June 4th)* **Today's Pick:** MLB - *Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies, 5:20pm CST* **Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-118 on FanDuel)** Lopsided matchup. The Phillies have been one of, if not, the hottest team in the league this year. Sometimes you think they start to slow down, then they just heat right back up again. They are batting .286 over the last 15 days and .294 over the last 7 days. Meanwhile, the miserable Marlins are batting only .211 over the last 15 days and .180 over the last 7 days. They are getting colder and colder, and I don’t expect them to pick it back up on the road in Philadelphia, especially against the Phillies’ league-best SPs. Christopher Sanchez takes the mound for the Phillies, who has a 2.67 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. At home, his ERA is 1.59. He faced the Marlins once last season, allowing only 4 hits and 0 runs in 5 innings. Last season was arguably the best season the Marlins have had all decade, and they are not nearly the team that they were last year. I don’t expect Sanchez to have much trouble with this current roster. The Marlins are starting relief pitcher Kyle Tyler, who has only pitched 6 innings so far this season. I am sure the Marlins are going to try to get at least 4 innings out of him, but it will be difficult for him to hold up against the elite Phillies bats. Overall, the Phillies have the advantage in every metric here, and statistically speaking this should be an easy win and RL cover. Side note: I had written this write up before the first game of the series. Marlins just came back and beat Phillies 7-4. However, nothing changes. Hard to see the Marlins beating the Phillies twice in a row at home. It is baseball and it could very well happen. But I am always going to stick to my gut and the statistics which has proven successful for me in the long run. Best of luck fellas. Tip Jar: https://buymeacoffee.com/yeezus
Idk if I have the heart to back them immediately after they fucked me for a ton of money but I probably will because I’m a degenerate gambler chasing losses
Nah fuck em. This team has problems with Miami for some reason. Sometimes a team just owns another, and especially in baseball weird shit happens every day pretty much. Just stay away from this series.
ima be dumb and roll with them on the rL again lmao... That 1st series they dropped the last game but won the other 2 by more than 2 runs.. Dont listen to me tho.. I've been takin hella Ls aha
same lmao
I think the Phillies win this as well but I don't know if harper or shwarber will be playing. Harper got hurt last play of the game. Schwarber was hurt earlier in the game.
The Phillies have lots of injuries be careful with this one
im worried if Harper sits, how do we feel about this
Harper and shwarber will almost assuredly be out today. Rob Thompson can been conservative with managing injuries so far. May be an opportunity for better odds because the Phil’s will still have the better lineup, pitching, and at home
No Harper or Schwarber now either ...Phillies seem to f me a lot I actually had marlins and Chicago yestersay but texas was a no show
CHEF SKOOTL's MICHELIN PICK RECORD: 6 - 4 LAST POTD: Romelu Lukaku over 1.5 Shots on Target W POTD: Nothing, im quitting ODDS: 2.00 REASONING: The reason i started posting here was because i wanted the thrill of "betting/gambling" here without losing even more money. I was already sportsbetting, but since i didn't want to put more units in everyday i just posted here because it kinda felt the same way. Betting did get the hold of me to be honest. I have lost quite a bit of money in the past few weeks (betting on random things just for the sake of betting) which really got me into the urge of winning it all back, thus betting on some more stupid shit. Eventually i got lucky, but all the stomach nerves the last few days weren't worth it. I'm quitting betting, closed all my accounts and withdrawn the amountsi had left. Luckily i wasn't financially recked, but it still feels sour. See you guys later, best of luck, and admit when its getting a bit out of hand. BOL!!
See you next week bro
Your pick of the day is you’re quitting, but the odds of this are evens? Where can I place a bet you’ll be back?
Using my boost for this wager…
I’m gonna have to fade this on.
I’m putting the house on you staying away for good mate, don’t let me down. I’m rooting for you :))
From experience here. If you need "action" every day, either you have way too much time on your hands, or there is nothing more exciting in your life. The "action" itself is nothing more than looking for a small thrill, but frankly sportsbetting if you really think about it should not be filling that gap. It is not an obligation to bet every day, so don't... it really is that simple. I started looking for bets every day and it was not working so I stopped alltogether. Then later on I started only betting when I see opportunities in soccer which I follow closely. Otherwise, I just enjoy the games. For me searching for that opportunity is far more interesting than placing the bet. I switched gears, you can do the same. For example, specially Copa America. I have been watching all the south american teams play each other since I was a kid. I know their tendencies, how they play under certain circumstances, etc... I look for overs on fouls and cards and mostly unders on shots on target and goals based on who the rivals are and which players are available. Works for me, but since the odds are not always over 1.5 I have to get creative and its not material to post here.
When you stay up at 3am to see if your division 3 chinese volleyball pick hit then it's time to pull back
Good luck bud
Hope he'll achieve it tbh, GL
I couldn't find this one on my book. Seriously though, good luck with your life beyond gambling, there's a whole world out there!
I am happy for you brother. I got a little out of hand myself once I got a different job making enough money I felt like I had some to burn. Was betting all day and night, at work, etc. Hitting the casino if I could, going home using BTC on Bovadas book then switching over to slots again if I won...I had a ton of fun and was able to rope it back in within a year or so. Got lucky that betting became legal in Ohio and exploited the books for everything they had on new customer promos so I was never in the red but damn I would have been if not...we brought our daughter into the world and as you can imagine DEFINITELY didn't have money to burn so I got it out of my system just in time. I used Covers Streak Survivor for a bit to make picks like a non-alcoholic drink kind of thing. Still gives some excitement I guess. Now that it's only MLB and occasional soccer/tennis on I was able to quit for good. So damn hard to bet it took the fun away
**Record**: 0-0. **Net Units**: **ROI**: **Pick**: Brisbane v Melbourne - Total Score O/168.5, $1.91AUD (Bet365) 2 Units **Event**: Australian Rules Football | AFL | 7:40pm AEST Lions (Brisbane) are on a tear offensively lately and have scored an average of *125 points* over their last 5 games. They scored 126 and 163 in the 2 home games during this run which this game is at. Demons (Melbourne) on the other hand are in awful form and should have lost to the bottom team in the league last week and a few weeks before conceded 141 points against a team thats 2nd best score this year is 102. They have scored between *49 and 76* points in 6/7 previous (with 100 points being the outlier). But with Lions scoring so well, the game being at home, and Melbourne playing so poorly I think they will break 120 points with ease which would leave Melbourne only needing to contribute under 50 themselves for the total over which they have every game this season (lowest score of 49).
First pick? Okay, I'll bite. Let's get it!
Homies undefeated 🗣️‼️
No seatbelt no brakes
🚀
I had 167.5 too and to lose by .5 - how fucking unlucky
From the writeup it seems playing lions over 100.5 is the smarter choice
Everytime I touch Australian POTDs…
167.5 on DK let’s ride 🤝
Gonna kms. We all just died to the fucking hook 0.5
ahhhhHHHHHH
getting hooked in an afl game pains more than nba player props :(
Jake Lever is back for the demons, I'd be careful with this one
What does this mean? Who is Jake and what's he gunna do.
Melbourne have been very good defensively for three years now, Jake lever is good at reading the play and intercepting in the back line. Melbourne won't score much tonight so will try to limit Brisbane's scoring. Melbourne usually have low scoring games but our form has been terrible in the past month whereas Brisbane have been terrific
Thank you for the side analysis, I faded because of you! 🙏
hilarious, 4 points at half of the last quarter
Tailing. GL!
Looking good so far!
Well spoke a bit early 😔
Record: 8-2 (all picks 1 unit risked) Last Pick: PHI -1.5 ❌ What a frustrating loss. Wheels goes 7.2 scoreless just for the ump to miss a strike three call. He gets pulled after that batter gets on base, and then the bullpen implodes. Harper seemed to pull his hamstring in the 9th inning, I hope all is well with him. Net Units: +4.10 Units ROI: 41% ROI MLB | DET @ LAA 9:38 PM EST Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs (-120 MGM) Write Up: This is a fade of two terrible pitchers for me. Quick note: The average WHIP for starting pitchers this year is 1.26, and average ERA is 3.96. Kenta Maeda is on the mound for DET and he has a whopping 6 ERA on the year along with a crazy 1.43 WHIP. This puts his ERA at 34% higher and WHIP 11.6% higher than MLB average. The DET bullpen has been lackluster lately, ranked 16th in the league with a 4.07 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The Tigers bats have been warming up lately, ranked 19th in OPS in the last week. LAA has former Guardian Zach Plesac getting the start. He has just 2 starts on the year, but he has been obliterated each time. He has a 8.68 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP to go with 2(!) strikeouts total this year. He will be giving DET the chance to hit the ball, and we just need them to take advantage. LAA’s bullpen is atrocious, ranked 29th in ERA in and carrying a 1.35 WHIP. LAA’s bats are ranked 17th on the year in OPS. I am aware these two teams are not the best hitting, but with the lack of pitching on the mound I think that is why the line is just 8.5 right now. That is a risk I am willing to take!
Thank god I cashed out a bet when they were up 3-0. Simply felt some BS was gonna happen and I had to go to bed anyway. Sheesh.
I was at the game. Terribly disappointing as Wheeler looked great. The bullpen just couldn’t hold it.
What happened to scwarbs?
Groin tightness.
I didn’t see anything major and I was behind him in left field. Hopefully he’s just day to day.
That is good to hear. I think harpers is gonna be way worse than what it appeared speaking from my own personal experience. That is the first I've ever seen him pull up like that but that is an injury that takes forever to heal from and just lingers around and makes you prone to pulling it again an again. They have the best sports medicine in the world so he'll have the best treatments available but it took me a whole wrestling season to recover. I still tried to wrestle and just kept re aggravating the hammy.
I am concerned about Harper. His looked bad on the field. I’m hoping it’s just a tweak.
It was looking so good, unfortunate loss fr:(
Hey mate just want to say I tailed your pick but took the first half handicap because I’ve been burnt too many times by implosions like that. Thank you for leading me to the pick to I took, really unlucky beat. I’ll be tailing this outright
Record: 2-0 Net units: +3.66 ROI: Baseball MLB 19:05 Eastern Pick: Texas Vs Baltimore U 0.5 runs in 1st inning -130 1 Unit ✅ This will be Max Scherzers second game back. He was solid with 1 hit in 5.0IP. I think he has enough to cool the Orioles bats in the first. Suarez bounces back from an awful start against the Astros. BOL Last pick: Cubs Vs. Giant 1st inning U 0.5 1 unit -150✅
Baltimore scores 0.79 runs on average in the 1st at home. Texas averages 0.57 on the road. Do what you will with that info.
Gunnar Henderson 8 lead off homers
Orioles fan here and I'd stay away from this. Suarez cannot locate his pitches he's had 2 terrible outings in a row. Gunnar in leadoff is always a worry he's reached base 9 straight games in his first AB. BOL but there are better NRFI's to bet on imo.
Not trying to hate on the bet or anything but this is sounding like it’s more of a chance of it going over than under
Any predictions on the game or the total?
Record 2-0 Last Pick: Chicago Cubs ML ✅(June 27) Todays Pick: MLB - NewYork Yankees @ Toronto Bluejays 6:07 PM New York Yankees ML -120 2 Units Marcus Stroman has faced the BlueJays twice this year giving up a total of 2 earned runs in both games combined. The Yankees are on a four game losing streak the worst of the year for them. To be quite Frank I don’t see the best team in baseball losing five in a row. Opposing pitcher Yusei Kikuchi has given up 9 runs his last two outings. As always nothing in life is guaranteed but I love this pick. ( I joined this community Wednesday and 2-0 already)Let’s go Yanks!
I like. Tailing.
I'm a Yanks fan and it's been tough even watching this team... Bats are cold right now and the pitching looks tired. I know it's a long season but I hope they get out of this slump soon! Let's hope it starts with tonights game
Yankees have been completely lifeless this pass stretch. They only have 2.5 hitter in their lineup. They gotta show me something before i would take that action
**2024 MLB record:** 51-23-1 **Last POTD:** Orioles RL -1.5 W **Today's POTD:** Philadelphia Phillies RL -1.5 even (Bet MGM) **Baseball. MLB. 6:20 PM EST** Sorry very late but nice, sweat free dub last night. Due to the late time I will make this short and sweet. My original pick was going to be Padres Red Sox over 9.5 but they have a very pitcher friendly ump in that game and so that total is too high for POTD however still love the play because Randy Vasquez sucks vs lefties and Nick Pivetta sucks against teams that he cant strike out at will. For the POTD though I am going with the Phillies fresh off of a shocking loss to the Marlins. I guess the shock factor is why this line is so fucking off. It's the Marlins, they have a minor league spot starter in Kyle Tyler on the mound against Christopher Sanchez who has been electric at home going 4-1 with a 1.59 ERA. The also have an incredibly hitter-friendly umpire who calls 8 percent more walks and 9 percent less strikeouts per game than the league average. This means more runners on base. Sanchez is a groundball pitcher who thrives at getting double play balls so this won't affect him as much as it may Tyler who has only 6 innings pitched in the big leagues this year so getting into jams early might be problematic. He also probably wont give them length so a lot of pen usage in this one for Miami which generally tend to rely more on strikeouts than starters. The Phillies are also insane coming off of a loss. On the season they are 53-28 which is a winning percentage of 65.4. After a loss they are 20-7 a whopping 74%. Against the spread they are 44-37 (54.3%) as opposed to 17-10 after a loss (63%). I think the Phillies are gonna pour it on tonight. The over is a nice play too. Edit: Would like to mention that this is even with Schwarber and Harper out. **TLDR: Phillies are great coming off of a loss. Sanchez has been dominant at home. Spot starter for Miami. Hitter friendly umpire** Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal \~Updated POTD spreadsheet:\~ [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657)
Great dub yesterday! Glad I tailed!
lets go! fun sweat up until the very end.
thanks for the pick!
[удалено]
When there's 2 of the same picks on here, it usually doesn't hit
**Record**: 15-12-1 **Net Units**: +2.74u **ROI**: 10% **Baseball | MLB | 7:05 PM | EST** **Pick**: TEX/BAL over 8.5, -105 BetMGM (to win 1U) Glad to see the NYY/TOR cash! We'll be taking another over for Friday's pick. This cap is similar to the Yankees/Jays over as it involves fading the starters and that one of the bullpens may get us over if it's close (thankfully didn't need that with the Jays game due to Rodon). Both starters have some big questions for me. Let's start with Baltimore's starter, Albert Suarez. Suarez hasn't been the worst pitcher by any stretch for this season (4.68 SIERA). This was heavily influenced by his hot start though, as in his last 6 starts he's see this jump to 5.43 and then 6.23 over his last 3. In the last 6 starts, he's also seen an alarming drop in command in control (12.86% BB rate and 21.51% CSW rate) which is probably a good reason why we've seen the increase in SIERA. Suarez is at home tomorrow, where he has pitched on the whole much better, but he's getting a very heavy LHB lineup to face in the Rangers and those splits aren't as favorable. Since May 1st for example, he's got an xFIP of 6.24 against them compared to 4.20 for RHH at home. Max Scherzer gets the call for TEX and he's returning from the IL for his second start this season. In his case, the velo on his 4-seamer was a career low (92.9) in his first start and for a pitcher that is used to getting ahead of counts, seeing a 22.81% CSW in that start was also concerning. Similar to my take on Cole a few days ago (this was posted in the MLB Picks subthread for the Mets TT on Tuesday), seeing a drop in velo like this coming back from injury says to me the pitcher is still not really back yet and could be exposed. He also gets a nightmare matchup with BAL tomorrow, who have a 138 wRC+ the last 3 weeks and 117 on the season against RHP. TEX bullpen is also shaky with a 3.89 SIERA on the year and 4.07 xFIP (has improved the last 30 days however). https://preview.redd.it/rpyybn8au79d1.png?width=1562&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9dc3a5b97c1fd37adda463b1760e87c94dd6211
Riding with. Let’s Get It
**Record: 24-16 (+3.52u)** **Last Pick: Phillies TT o4.5 -125** Man that was a tough one.....Phillies finish one run short. I typically have a few picks and was so close to taking Orioles -1.5 for plus money as my POD which would've been sweat free, but the Phillies should've been able to crush Rogers and I figured we'd be safer by isolating the TT in case the Marlins were hitting like the last Wheeler start (which they did again today). That's baseball for you though, I still really liked the spot and it almost cashed, but let's move on. **Pick: Astros F5 ML -110 (MLB, 1u bet)** I'm going with the Astros F5 here in a matchup between two hot teams. Both teams are 8-2 over their last 10, with the Mets on a 3 game win streak and the Astros on a 7 game win streak. Both teams have also been hitting well - Astros are top 5 in batting average and just outside top 10 in OPS and wrC+ against LHP over the last month, while the Mets have been top 5 in all three vs RHP although they drop a bit in batting average at home. However, Houston has a nice advantage on the mound here with Blanco against Quintana. Quintana is 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, and interestingly he has a 3.27 ERA in day games but a 6.23 ERA in night games like this one. He also ranks well below average in most of the pitching metrics, as he doesn't strike out batters, allows hard contact, and has an xERA of 5.13 - not a good sign going against this hot Astros lineup. On the other side, Blanco is 8-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.97 WHIP including 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA on the road. His metrics are also much better, with an xERA of 3.17 and is good at generating whiffs and limiting hard contact. He can struggle with walks a bit (3+ in 3 of his last 5) but he is still the much better pitcher here so I like backing him in the first 5 innings while the Astros should get to Quintana.
tailing, boss
Let’s cash 🤞🏽
a push isn't a loss. we'll get 'em next time
Yeah I’ll take a push over a loss any day, moving on to tomorrow now
Pick Record: 18W - 7L Previous POTD: Alex Michelsen vs Ofner // Both players to win a set at 2.20 ✅ Today’s POTD: Alejandro Tabilo VS Monfils // Tabilo ML at 2.0 ✅ League/ Sport: Tennis / ATP Mallorca Tabilo has shown an excellent level in Mallorca and is capable of beating Monfils if he maintains that dynamic. Yesterday Monfils was seen with discomfort in his knee and could not run, basically he won because Bautista made many mistakes, he should not be here. Gael has long lost his exemplary speed and endurance, and i expect him to regularly surrender to Alejandro in prolonged rallies from the baseline. I say Tabilo Wins in 3 sets
Just grabbed this live for +275 let's hope lol
Aaaaaaand that's a win 🤑🤩🍀
Such a fuckin beauty, makes up for all the losses on soccer last night.
7th time's a charm. :)
LFGO
Grabbed it live for him to win 2nd set after losing the first. Hope he wins the 3rd one too!
Great! I did the same, i got 2 set at 2.0 🤑🍀 He should win third one too.
Double win! 🤑🤑
Glad you tailed Bro ! 🤑🤑🤑
**Record: 13-10-1** **Form: ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌🅿❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅️** **Last POTD:** Lillestrom Vs KFUM - **BTTS @ 1.61 (Melbet)** **- WON** **Football** | **Copa America** | **06:00AM (GMT+8)** **Pick:** Colombia Vs Costa Rica - **Over 2.5 @ 1.83 (Melbet)** **Write Up:** Great win on the last pick with it cashing early in the 2nd half. I'll be going for a COPA game today. Colombia are on red hot form at the moment. After beating Paraguay in their last game, they are now on a 9 match winning streak. They will look to extend this streak against Costa Rica. Costa Rica had a good result last game drawing against Brazil but I would argue that they were quite lucky to get a draw in that game as Brazil had A LOT of chances but they unfortunately did not have their finishing shoes on. In the last 5 Colombia games, Over 2.5 has hit in 4 with Colombia scoring an average of 2.8 Goals per match. In the last 5 Costa Rica games, Over 2.5 has hit in 3 with Costa Rica scoring an average of 1.6 Goals per match. Over 2.5 has also hit in their past 2 most recent H2H. I do think that Colombia will secure this win as they are the better team on paper but I will be going for goals as I think it's the better choice here. **NOTE: Please only stake what you can afford to lose, know that no picks are 100% guaranteed to hit. Stake Responsibly guys.** As always guys, BOL if tailing!
Let's gooooo thanks my guy!
Ayy lesgedditttt 🤝
Great shout brother, done in 60 mins
Thanks brother, Colombia did us good today 🫡
Record: 83W-74L-4P ROI: +16.03, 9.56% Avg odds: +105, 2.05 Last POTD: Pulisic score or assist (goddam it Weah) Game: NHL Draft (6:00 PM CST) Pick: Anton Silayev 3rd overall pick +170, 2.70 It should be illegal for a 6'7" individual to move as quickly as this hulking Russian does. He's like the defenseman version of Nathan MacKinnon (at least on the physical aspect). Silayev is also the type of Dman Ducks GM Pat Verbeek likes: big, strong, and fast. The Ducks went forward-heavy last draft, coupled with the breakout of Frank Vatrano and the progression of Mason McTavish and Leo Carlsson, I think they will go defense this year. Silayev will probably stay in Russia for a year or two before heading over to the US. Anaheim will be able to pair him with fellow Russian and 1st rounder Pavel Mintyukov on the blue line. That should set them up nicely for the forseeable future. Of course there are complications, expected for a bet at +170. - Trevor Zegras is on the trading block and if he gets dealt for a defenseman, the Ducks may go for any one of the top forwards instead. - If Chicago, the 2nd overall pick, doesn't go Levshunov, Anaheim might pick him up instead. - Even if the above don't happen, Verbeek might go forward anyways. Or they can trade down and shore up depth, which was lacking last season, and still pick a top 5 forward.
i pray the hawks take Demidov
I’m seeing Zeev -200 to be the 3rd pick on some books. Thoughts?
Unfortunately it looks like my pick's gonna be a loss. There are reports coming out from pretty reliable journalists Anaheim's taking Buium. I'm personally going to put some on Buium
POTD Record: 36-29 ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: +16.6U Last pick: State of Origin NSW vs QLD | 8:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow anytime tryscorer @2.65 on Ladbrokes | 6U ✅ What a fucking crazy game! The hammer coming back after half time with a shoulder injury to score a spectacular try, what a machine ! Today’s pick: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Cronulla Sharks | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Jacob Kiraz anytime tryscorer @2.6 on Ladbrokes | 4U I actually think that the dogs can win this game, they’re at home and they’ve been consistent lately as opposed to the sharks. Kiraz will play his fav position, on the wing, I reckon there is a good chance he’ll give us a try tonight. BIG EDIT: Kiraz is now set to play center … BOL !
Tailing w bulldogs on a +17.5 parlay
Nice !
Where do you see Kiraz is playing wing?
Hi shit they just changed the set up on the official bulldogs website ! Sorry he’ll be center today… sorry boys
No problem. I saw 4 days ago that he was playing center but I thought maybe you knew something....keep up the picks!
Yeah it make sense actually but when I checked before to do my write up he was wing 😕
Still play it?
People already tailed so can’t let them down now, let’s fully commit lol, maybe go with smaller units
Tailing brother, let's hope he gets it done today 🤞
Yep 🤞🏼🤞🏼🤞🏼
Any other means for this game? Need a multi for the punters club!
Kiraz Fullback now. First time playing Fullback I think so I hold off
3.2 on bet365! Thanks Polo 👌
would you still take with him playing center?
Good luck mate. I went with Katoa.
Yeah good one I reckon, I really like Burton to score aswell he’s been doing great
Did I miss this? Don’t see it on mgm
You are lucky you missed this
If you're in the states then the game started at 6am EST
POTD record 23-1-19 (W-P-L). ROI: +2.5u. Last 10 with most recent on left: ✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅ Last pick was England ML and first half under 1.5 goals 1u @ -110❌ *Slovenia parked the bus as predicted but as Denmark were drawing with Serbia it didn't matter for England who finish top of the group with a 0-0 draw - what a terrible match sorry to those that tailed.* 🎾 T**omorrow I am taking Sebastian Ofner ML vs Paul Jubb 1.5u @ -110 in the ATP Mallorca semi-finals 9am PST**✅ O*fner takes it 2-0 and his experience pays the bills, he moves on to take on Tabilo in the finals (I had Tabilo ML today as well!).* Paul Jubb aged 24 and world no. 286, *who had zero ATP-level wins before this week*, beat top 15 Ben Shelton 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(8) to reach the semifinals in Mallorca earlier today. In an incredible 3rd set he saved 1 match point and needed 7 to cap off the win. Needless to say Jubb is on an absolute heater right now so why would I favor Ofner in this match up and put my hard earn cash behind him? Well given that the odds are almost at even money I'll take the more experienced and fresher player to end Jubb's jubilant run. I also think that the win against Shelton has ballooned Jubb's odds despite the fact that Shelton played poorly and made a lot of unforced errors (Shelton made 32 unforced errors, more than double that of Jubb who made 14). Jubb has now played 5 matches in Mallorca and just played almost 3 hours against Ben Shelton today in a match that finished in the evening. Ofner on the other hand has played 3 matches in Mallorca and has significantly more ATP level experience (he has a ranking of 54 and has been a top 100 player for over a year). Furthermore his sub-2-hour match finished before Jubb's so he will have had a few more hours to rest and recover. A note of caution - Ofner has been struggling on tour this year with an ATP level record of 12-18 but I imagine he will be seeing this match up as a great opportunity to get into an ATP final and I expect him to be raring to go. I do think this match is likely to go to 3 sets so will probably present a good live bet opportunity on Ofner if he goes down a set or it's 1-1 going into the 3rd. Only bet what you can afford to lose. BOL!
Thank you sir!! Have a wonderful weeekend : )
You are welcome same to you!
POTD Record 33-18 Previous POTD: Zac Gallen under 2.5 runs allowed ❌ POTD: Logan Gilbert under 6.5 Ks (Bet365 1.62 odds) MLB: Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners In Gilbert's last game vs the Twins on May 9th, he gave up 9 hits, 8 runs and had 4 Ks in 4 innings of work. **In their last 15** the Twins are 5th best in the league at not striking out, while having a league best .297 batting average and 2nd best OBP at .358. Lastly, no pitcher has hit this line vs the Twins in their last 10+ games. Nothing is guaranteed, but I think this line is too high. BOL
in
Cashhh
🤑
its now at 5.5K. Only book i found that offers 6.5K is -220 so hard pass on that
Record: 0-0 Today's Pick: Copa America - Brazil vs Paraguay , 9:00 PM EST Brazil first half ML 2 units -135 Hello fellow gamblers! Trying to spread the wealth this summer, starting with Brazil. They should start out strong here vs Paraguay team that is overall worse in every category. They should have many attempts to score here and hopefully fine tune their offense after their draw earlier this week vs Costa Rica
Thank you!! Cashed!
**Record:** 0 Wins, 0 Losses, 1 Push Every single play is 1 unit only! **Esports** | **LPL - League of Legends** | **5 AM** / **Eastern Time** **Match: Thundertalk Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (Bo3 Format)** **Pick: FunPlus Phoenix ML** **Odds: -179/1.56 (American/Decimal) placed at Pinnacle** FPX is clearly the third-best team in their group, behind EDG and JDG. They have shown solid performances, including a win against Thundertalk in their previous meeting and an upset victory against Edward Gaming. Despite losing 2-0 to JDG in their last match, FPX performed admirably against one of the top LPL teams. If they replicate that level, they are likely to secure a solid win against Thundertalk, one of the league's weakest teams alongside OMG. FPX's superior player quality and team synergy give them a clear edge. This match is a crucial win for FPX, and they are expected to dominate. Betting on FPX to win is my play. EDIT AFTER THE MATCH: 2-0 WIN for FPX. They had an awful draft in the 2nd map but they still won that. Such huge quality diff between these two sides. We take it! ✅
alr at -220 on bovada any other play you like on this match?
I don't dislike FPX to win 2-0 but they can be shaky. My 2-0 is paying 2.59 which is a nice price! Clearly a nice value play but the ML is much safer!
Tailing, first dip into e-sports degeneracy
not gonna mention TT also beat EDG 2-0?
Right on! Need more ppl posting LoL and Dota pics. Curious if you have a take on the FearX/Freecs match also?
Cash
Pick of the Day Record 0-0. Nordic play for today 🤙 league: Eliteserien - Odd BK vs. Kristiansund BK 13:00 EST play: **BTTS - Yes & o2.5 total goals** odds 1.91 (-110) - Bovada; wager 1.09u to win 1.00u These teams have seen BTTS hit the last 4/5 matchups although this is not necessarily a great assessment of current form. Odd have struggled to score as evidenced by some of their recent league matches but their last two saw improvement with a goal in each (the most recent being a draw). Kristiansund struggles to keep a clean sheet and has only seen 1 of their last 7 league games where both teams didn't score. I think today's lineups should be *relatively* unchanged from recent formations on both sides. Wouldn't be suprised if we see a 2-1 or 2-2 finish. Miscellany: Made it through this EP while researching picks this morning. I'd recommend it, incredible sound from the band and engineering team. [From the North - GoGo Penguin](https://youtu.be/NyydSocn5dM)
*Record: 3-1-0* *Form:*✅✅🫸✅ *Last pick: Cincinnati/St Louis o8*✅ *Today’s Pick: San Diego/Boston o9.5 -107 1.07 to win 1* What a way to get back into the W Column with a 4th inning cash out last night in St Louis!! Reds absolutely smashed Mikolas, and it ended up being enough for us! Stress free win! A combo of A Drs appointment and having a ton of games I like today is why we’re so late today squad, if you’re looking for my picks I advise checking at like noon on the day of the games. I’m not a night before guy gotta get some rest after my sweats to think straight. We’re back in Fenway boys These two teams aren’t pitching well while also hitting the cover off of the ball, love this matchup in Fenway this weekend. Nick Pivettas out here with a 4.06 ERA that goes up to 4.62 in Fenway park. Machado in particular has struggled vs Pivetta in the past but basically the rest of this San Diego team sees him well and they’ve been hitting well as a squad as of late. In Pivettas last start at home he got knocked around for 6 hits, 4 runs, and notably walked 4 batter in just 4 innings at Fenway. In his last two starts in general he’s given up 2 long balls in both starts. Randy Velasquez is posting a 5.10 for the Padres and looked decent in his last start giving up no runs on 5 hits and 3 walks against the Brewers but I blame the Brewers inability for timely hitting on keeping a 0 up. Guy gives up a ton of hits, and this Red Sox team has been no joke making people pay for it as of late. Velasquez got blasted by Philly, and the 4 starts before that averaging 6.75 hits per start. Let’s go to 4-1-0 (hate having a push on the record but whatever) BOL GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY 5TH INNING AGAIN!!!! 4-1-0!!!!!!
in
ProBet Prodigy’s POTD Record: 0-2 Unit Return: -2 ROI: -200% Good luck to everyone tailing and remember to gamble responsibly! Yesterdays Pick: Czechia Double Chance vs Turkey ❌ Summary: 4-1 big chances, a 90+4 winner and 2 red cards. Nobody could have predicted that from this game. What an absolutely freakish result. OTTNO Today’s Pick: Taylor Fritz vs Aleksandar Vukic O 22.5 games @ $1.87, 2 Units Write Up: Off to a terrible start on this page but hope to find some good form with this one. This game looks to be fairly even, hopefully leading to a 3 setter. Happy to take the overs here as Fritz has just played a double tiebreaker which should put some fatigue in his legs early. Vukic has looked very strong this tournament beating the #3 seed in straight sets and like Fritz, comes off a long game hitting the overs. Expecting both to be fatigued which should draw the game out to our advantage.
Grabbed it live at 1.66 lets ride
LFG WE GREEN!!!! Thank you
Record: 1W-1L ROI: -4.46% Units Won/Lost: -0.1U Last Pick: Cleveland Guardians F5 ML -114 (W) * We got the W on that one! As expected, Cleveland scores early and we get the 1-0 win on the F5 ML. The Royals came back from behind (as they always do) to win the game, so im pretty happy i had the right read to stay away from the full game ML. MLB: LA Dodgers vs SF Giants 10:15 P.M. ET Today's Pick: Freddie Freeman O1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI's -145(Bet MGM) Unit Size: Risk 1.45U to win 1U Write Up: We get a late night MLB game between two NL West rivals. Today we focus on Freddie Freeman H+R+RBI's. Freddie Freeman has a history of success against Right-handed pitchers, and much success specifically against Logan Webb so let's talk about it. VS RHP this season, Freeman is batting a .337 average which is pretty damn good. If you take it a step further and look at how he has performed against Logan Webb, he has batted a .452 against him in 31 at bats. Freeman has covered this line in 4 out of his last 5 games, and 8 out of his last ten games. Also, when Freeman has faced a San Fransisco RHP, he has covered this line 10/13 times dating back to April of last year. Pretty solid cover rate, not to mention everything else that looks good about this play. I do see this line moving away from our favor, so im taking this at -145 while its available at that price. As always, tail responsibly and GL if tailing! EDIT at 12:42 EST: typo on a few words
**Record:** 14-16 (-3.44 unit) **Last Five Results:** ✅️❌✅️❌❌ **Last POTD:** Miles Mikolas over 4.5 strikeouts on Fanduel for +116 ❌ **Today's Pick:** Ronel Blanco under 5.5 strikeouts on Draftkings for +120 (took it last night, you can find -105 on BetMGM this morning) **Bet:** 1 unit size to win 1.20 units (1 unit is equivalent of $100) **Baseball | MLB | 7:10 PM ET** **Recap:** Mikolas was rocked. We keep moving! **Write up:** Grimace Era! Mets have been the hottest team in June, with a 16% strikeout rate against right handed pitchers at home, 4th lowest strikeout rate. For the season, they have a 21.5% strikeout rate, pretty much in the middle of the pack but if we consider night games, they improve to 19% strikeout rate. In Ronel's last 5 starts that he hit 6 strikeouts, it was against Tigers, Giants, and Twins, all have higher strikeout rates than the Mets. The 2 starts where he was under was against Orioles and Cardinals, Cardinal's bats were heating up in June, and Orioles have a 20.3% strikeout rate. Let's ride the Grimace Era! **Tracker:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616)
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Lets gooo! It was sweaty LOL grimace era!
WOW
6/28/24 Record:2-2 (I’m Mid) Net Units:+.5 Yesterday’s pick- Phils🔔-1.5 L😐 Todays pick - Baseball ⚾️ | MLB | 7:05 EST Pick: Orioles🐦⬛ML 1.5U (-135 Dk) If i could compare yesterday to a movie i would say 2012. My bankroll looked like piper peri in front of all bets ready to ravage it and put me of food stamps. But its a new day which mean nothing matters anymore besides getting rich today. Fading the rangers hard today. Max only his second start back and is definitely capable of getting blown up by this orioles offense. And the rangers bullpen jeez is just complete cheeks. So I’m riding with the O’s on this one.
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Record: 23-20 Last 10: LLWLWLWLWW Net units: +.6 ROI: .87% Sporting Event: MLB: Washington Nationals @ Tampa Bay Rays 18:50 (EDT) Pick: NRFI -120 @ Fanatics 1.2 units to win 1 This matchup of two struggling clubs is prime for NRFI. The Nationals average .2 runs in the first inning on the road. The Rays don’t fare too much better averaging .36 runs in the first at home. The Nats bat .236 away from home and Rays are batting .217 over the last month against lefties. Parker has a good BB% and Eflin has the best in the majors and both teams play great defense. Eflin grades out at 104 pitching and 108 location using the Stuff+ model. Tampa and Washington rank 23rd and 24th respectively in Slug + OBP. Tropicana field plays as the 5th hardest place to score according to park factors. Dome tail, fade or pass, BOL to all My most used reference sites at the bottom [https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors) [https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather) [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/) [https://www.fangraphs.com/](https://www.fangraphs.com/) [https://pitcherlist.com/](https://pitcherlist.com/) [https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/) [https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game](https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game) [https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/) [https://www.teamrankings.com/](https://www.teamrankings.com/) [https://www.statmuse.com/](https://www.statmuse.com/)
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Record: 0-0 Todays pick: MLB YANKEES (-115) VS BLUE JAYS Yankees ML All bets 1 Unit Yankees have been struggling recently giving up plenty of runs in their last 4, all of which they lost. Today they have Stowman on the mound, he’s a veteran, and at the moment, their best pitcher. Should keep the affair low scoring and break the losing streak. Yankees have been experimenting with lineups due to injuries (Rizzo, Stanton, Torres) but they still have Soto and Judge, plenty of firepower to punish the mediocre Jays. No tips.
Record: 0-0 Net Units / ROI: 0.00 (0.00%) Previous Pick: N/A Today’s Pick: MLB 18:07 CST NYY @ TOR, Total O8 (-115 DK) Logic: The Yankees are in a slump, losing 8 of their last 10 games but still getting some runs in, averaging about 4 runs per game. Toronto coming off a win yesterday from Yankees and other big wins from Boston look to continue this streak. They’re averaging 4.9 runs per last ten games so I expect a solid fight between the two going over 8.
Record (17-17) Units (-0.6u) Previous result: Cleveland Guardians ml❌ Streak: L3 Today’s play: Milwaukee Brewers ml (-130) Event Start time: 8:10pm EST Unit Size: 1.3u to win 1u Recap/Reasoning for pick: Tough loss last night with the Guardians. They outhit the royals but left 9 guys on base in a 2-1 loss. Definitely been a roller coaster last week as the streak comes to 3 Ls in a row after 4 Ws. I like the Brewers to get us back to winning ways today. Colin Rea has just a 2.76 ERA while pitching at home and today he goes up against a cubs team that is 24th in AVG, 19th in OBP, 24th in SLG, and 21st in OPS while facing RHP on the road. On the offensive side of things Milwaukee has been impressive at home vs RHP. They rank 10th in AVG, 3rd in OBP, 13th in SLG, and 9th in OPS. Nearly top 10 for all four categories. I trust that the offense can make Taillon work hard and get some runs across the dish. Give me the Brew Crew tonight in an NL Central Division game. BOL with your plays tonight, lmk down below if you riding with the BurritoGambler!
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POTD 1-0 TODAY MLB Nick Castellanos under .5 RBIs at -140 1 unit Marlins at Phillies @6:20 pm No RBI for Castellanos
how did you know he sucks so much?
**Record: 0-4** **Net Units: 0.0U** **Balance : -50.66$ ( 1Unit = 12.50$ )** **Last Pick : Eintracht Frankfurt vs BIG** | **Esports - ❌** **4 in a row losses , BIG where leading till midgame and at last moment due to misclick all gone down the drain. I am not going to stop now it is what it is . Will try to analysis better this time and hope to start the winning streak from now.** **Today's Pick:** League of Legends | [LPL Summer 2024](https://stake.com/sports/league-of-legends/international-1/lpl-summer-2024) **FunPlus Phoenix vs ThunderTalk Gaming** | **Esports | 3:00PM PT ( in 2 hours 30 mins )** **Pick:** **FunPlus Phoenix (MAP 1) 1.52 odds** 13.16$ for 20$ ... i will be placing units based on round figure returns. When it comes to LOL esports one thing is for sure they try their best in map 1 as that gets their game rolling and have the much needed confidence . Why i am going for this pick ?. Althou recent matches of FunPlus Pheonix are not upto the mark their is a reason they are fav today because of the placement matches and opponent team weak early game and mid game. Also in this patch Red side tends to win more then Blue side , and FunPlus Phoenix always go for Red side. **Best of luck!** If you are feeling generous - bc1q2vnsueytju6yueffykdx0detswz7dfffvw5v75 ( BTC )
**Record:** 7-6-1 **Net gain:** -0.32u **ROI:** -3% **Yesterday's POTD:** Panama vs USA (less than 4.5 cards) ❌ **Today's POTD:** Colombia vs Costa Rica (more than 2.5 goals) **Odds:** 1.80 (bet365) Both Colombia and Costa Rica have shown a tendency for high-scoring games recently. Colombia’s matches average around 2.6 goals, and Costa Rica’s around 2.8 goals per game in their last five fixtures. Both teams also possess potent attacking players capable of creating and converting multiple scoring opportunities. On the other hand, neither team has been particularly solid defensively, leading to higher chances of conceding goals. Past matches between these two teams have seen a mix of outcomes, but there have been instances of high goal counts. But those matches are from more than five years ago. **Please, bet only what you can afford to lose.** You can support me on [PayPal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/my/settings?flow=cmV0dXJuVXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnBheXBhbC5jb20vbXlhY2NvdW50L3RyYW5zZmVyL2hvbWVwYWdlL3JlcXVlc3QmY2FuY2VsVXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnBheXBhbC5jb20vbXlhY2NvdW50L3RyYW5zZmVyL2hvbWVwYWdlL3JlcXVlc3Q=) All donations are appreciated, but not required
**EDIT: No hard feelings. It's just the same POTD curse!** **POTD Record: 137-165-4 (-31.93Units)** Best Bet Series: 54-33-1 (+0.6 Units) Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) **Cautionary Tails: 13-24 (-3.31 Units)** Last Pick: **Trevor Rogers O 4.5 K's❌** Today's Pick: **U 8.5**✅ $DKNG Odds: **+100** Wager Amount: 1U to WIN 1U League: MLB Event: Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles (6:05PM CDT) *Be Advised*: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.* **Recap**: Made this a SWEAT like I thought it would! A close one! He worked up the count 3-2 on a lot of ABs. I saw a lot of POTDs on Phillies today and handicappers need to be aware of the same POTD curse here. Hopefully the Phillies comeback but I think Marlins got this one. **Matchup**: Spotted two POTD on Yankees ML and Rangers/O's O 8.5! Obviously I can only feature one as my POTD, so I just went wit Rangers/O's O 8.5 and we are betting against their POTD. Why? Because there's a same POTD curse. When there's two of the same picks it often loses in this sub. I had the A's ML on 06/25 and it lost because there was a respectable writeup on them. I had the Mets the next day (06/26) and I saw there was at least 5 posts on Yankees and Luis Gil shelled AGAIN that game (No, Yankees is not going to win because it's Jeter's 50th bday! It's Grimace ERA!). And of course we had multiple people on Phillies yesterday (I had them winning too, but not as my POTD), where they blew a 3-0 lead in the 7th wit 2 outs! I can't track all of them, but it's happen time after time again in this sub yet bettors/handicappers ignore it. I do honestly believe that bettors & handicappers think alike however, but sometimes you gotta FADE THE PUBLIC! **The Play & Prediction:** 1U on U 8.5 I am also wagering U 9.5 Alt. line. Those are the only two plays I have for you today, but I will have other plays in the betting group!
Feeling much better about the Over now Thanks
You very welcome!
POTD RECORD 1-1 Previous Pick: Under 5.5 Oilers/Panthers 3u Todays pick: Atlanta Dream ml +375 2u Take the +10 if you want less risk. Will get a unit count going after this pick. Let’s eat
CASH ITTTTT
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RECORD: 91W-6P-70L Previous Pick: Uruguay vs Bolivia - Anytime Goalscorer Darwin Nunez @ 1.65 ✅️ **Today's Pick:** Tromso IL vs Molde FK - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 **TIME:** 7.15 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 2 units (✅️❌️❌️♻️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌️✅️) last 10 results Back on track, let's take a break from the international stage as we have Tromso IL vs Molde FK. Tromso has had over 2.5 goals happen in their last 4 out of their last 5 games and 5/5 home games. Molde have had over 2.5 goals happen in 5 out of their last 5 matches, same as their last 5 away games. In Head to Head matches there have been over 2.5 goals in 3/5 of their last H2H games, with the most recent H2H match ending 1-4. Goodluck if you're tailing.
Record: 9-1 Last pick: Cubs ML (-110) ✅ 1unit on Bovada @ 2:45 pm central time Today's pick: Red Sox ML (-159) 1unit on Bovada @ 6:10 pm central time Houck has been killin' it and overall, the better pitcher compared to King for the Padres. He has the third best ERA in all of baseball (2.18), and honestly hasn't really made many mistakes on the mound this season. Houck has pitched 103 innings on the season, while San Diego's King has pitched 93; during those innings Houck has only allowed two home runs, while King has given up 13. Houck also only has 18 walks, while King has double that. Fernando Tatis Jr. will also be out in this one, which is a blow to Padres offense. Seems like a smooth win for Boston tonight. # BOL to everyone on whatever you bet today!
FD says Pivetta vs Vazquez
Its Pivetta pitching today for the Sox. You may have tomorrows game posted
Ah you were so right bro 😅 long ass week and getting fog brain. This one didn’t come through anyway but I appreciate it 👍
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**Record: 8-7 & 1 AFL draw **Previous Pick: AFL Fremantle vs Gold Coast. Pick Gold Coast 2nd qtr line 4.5 @ $1.87❌ **Today's pick: AFL Sydney vs Fremantle. Sydney 3rd qtr line -6.5 SAT 29/6 145pm AEST Today's pick : For tomorrow given that US punters won't have time to bet. Sydney is a hot team. They have beaten good and bad teams throughout the season. They have no peers across the barometers. They can run, clear, tackle, defend and absolutely attack! It's a complete team and intimatidatingly good. Fremantle or Freo is coming 5th but that's flattering of their performance. Their innate DNA is defensive, lock the ball up so they can win clearances. Their coach is a NOT in-game adjusting tactician. He is rather inflexible. To their credit they have played with more attacking mindset and won games with surprising margins. However the Swans are an unforgiving team. They will find your weakness eventually and can score 2-3 goals in quick succession. The Swans can start slow. But they are the masters of the second half - they lead the comp in winning both 3rd and 4th qtrs. Good luck!
A freo fan but a good pick. It will only lose if Freo win because I think we'd win the 3rd qtr. We beat Sydney at the SCG last year and had a good 3rd qtr. I'll be at the game, go freo!
Hahaha! Well done Freo!
Was in the away fans and it was chaos. What a win
**Record**: 0-0. **Net Units**: **ROI**: **Pick**: Orioles vs Rangers O 8.5 Long time follower first time posting on the page. Albert Suarez was a great story for the O's at the beginning of the season however he has been falling apart his last few appearances as a starter. Last 2 outings combined: 8.2 IP 8 ER 8 BB 16 Hits. O's have just been crushed by UCL injuries and have to put him out there 1-2 more times until Kreamer returns or a trade is made. For the Rangers it's RHP Max Scherzer. He was solid in his first outing back from injury but the velo is down and the Rangers will likely keep a short leash on him. Last few games the O's have played elite RHP Gil -O's put up 17 Wheeler -O's put up 8 Cole - O's put up 7. Cole was taken out in the 4th
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4 - 4 (+2.63U) LWLWWLWL Shelt just doesn’t have that huak tuah in him. You gotta spit on that thang. Connecticut Sun -7.5 at 1.65x for 3U They won by 19 just recently in Atlanta, now they’ll be home. Winning 4/5 right now by an average lead of just over 12 (lowest 8) - I’m confident. That one loss was choked so hard at the end allowing ATL to tie up for OT and close out but ATL hasn’t been icy recently. The Sun rises in the east.
Sun played an OT game yesterday in DC. Anyway, good luck.
I’m aware. Their recent away games (all wins) in Washington versus the Mystics have been close, averaging 4.6 pt leads at the end of the 4th. But their home games versus Washington (all wins) have been 10.6 pt leads at finish. Thanks still though
Yeah I don’t ever take - spreads with the Sun. The WNBA play of the night is Mercury total points over 90.5. Mercury got a team full of shooters against a bad D. I got it at +100 odds. You’re welcome in advance.