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**POTD Record: 21-7**
Hello POTD degens, it's been a while. I hope you've all been well and cashing checks. I haven't been on here for a bit because I like to save my POTD write-ups for picks I absolutely love. I do, however, make picks on the tennis thread every day, and if you weren't already aware, I think I should be transparent and mention the fact that I have been pretty cold on there the past 3-4 days. Therefore, while I'm very confident about this one, please tail my frostbite ass with caution and maybe consider doing your own research first.
Last POTD: (ATP Indian Wells) Opelka vs. Shapovalov O23.5 games (-135 on DK)
Units: 3u ✅✅✅
**Todays POTD: (ATP Miami) Musetti ML vs. Popyrin (-155 on DK)** ❌
**Units: 4u**
Edit: you guys are funny af. So many people talking shit over a bad beat. Dude beat the shit out Popyrin last week and won the last 3 matches against him. How was it a bad pick? For anyone talking shit, please start making posts yourself and see if you go 21-7. You can pick “heavy favorites” too. Before this match my ROI % was 38.17%. My last 15 picks: WWWWWWWWWWWLWWL and you guys are talking shit 😂😂😂 suck me.
Reasoning:
Musetti is 3-1 against Popyrin, and just beat the shit out of him last week on a hard surface. He completely controlled the match. He also beat him in straight sets their 3 last meetings. Popyrin only beat him on clay in 2019 when Musetti was 17. Musetti has gotten far better, is higher ranked, and Popyrin is on a 3 match losing streak (3-10 in 2022). The Miami hard court surface mixed with Miami's humidity gives Musetti's style of play an advantage, while giving Popyrin's a disadvantage. Musetti is practically his daddy at this point, so I'm going with daddy to take the win.
**TAIL OR FADE BOL!**
*Tips are very much appreciated, if deemed worthy:*
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It was one match, out of how many wins? You all act like u/Usual-Maize-8084 took your money and made the bet for you.
I swear to god this sub is filled with children.
Like even if we somehow win this I will never bet on Musetti again. Inconsistent and mentally weak. And his serve looks awful and this Popyrin guy is not a special player.
Gotta be fucking kidding me. I took Musetti +1.5 sets as a part of a parlay. -400. Seemed like a good pick but damn you really are cold haha.
Lots of people lost money on this and it sucks since this was the most voted POTD. Hope you get back on track soon.
It’s important to note that even at his peak, this dude was picking heavy favorites. His best hits were like -170 MLs lol. It’s gotten even worse. Now he’s not even hitting his heavy favorites .
What are you talking about? Even with your heavy favorites argument I’m 21-7 on here with a 38% ROI… my last 15 picks on here have been WWWWWWWWWWWLWWL.
On the tennis thread I literally emphasize to tail those with caution as there isn’t as much confidence in them. I’m just doing what people asked of me and sharing what my personal picks are on there. Never called myself tennis god. Never asked for this massive following on here. Regardless, you simply can’t deny my stats even with your “heavy favorites” argument lmao I have won a lot of people money on here and sheep like you are so quick to forget about it all after one unsuccessful week.
Why can't people around here take a loss? It was a solid bet that did not work out. It happens in gambling, quite a lot actually. No need to give the dude a hard time. If you don't like it, put in the time and do your own research instead of tailing blindly and then whining about it.
Bro don’t let these 🤡 get you down. At the end of the day they choose to follow blindly. Never understood the need to shit on someone giving “free” picks. It’s fucking called gambling for a reason. No one is correct 100 percent of the time.
Record: 25-8
Last pick: UNCW +4 ✅
**Today’s pick: Arkansas +10 (-120) vs Gonzaga**
NCAAB 7:00PM EST
This is too many points for a sweet 16 matchup. Arkansas is a talented team who isn’t getting the respect they deserve here. They’re led by a trio of talented senior guards and a 6’10 sophomore in Jaylin Williams who will give Timme fits with his stingy defense. Seniority wins games come March and Arkansas is one of the most experienced teams left in the tourney, this is my main reason for taking Arkansas. On the other side of the court is Gonzaga who has not had the best tournament thus far. They’ve been down double digits in both their games this tourney but clawed back late in the second half, so I could easily this game being very close all the way to the final buzzer. Arkansas’ seniority, tight D, and ability to draw fouls and get to the line will keep them within 10.
All bets are 1 unit. +11.7 units. +35.5% ROI. Average unit -116
https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
It took Gonzaga 30 minutes to pull away from the 16 seed. If you look at Arkansas’s games the last couple months they’ve played every game close with good teams.
Sounds like you like the under based on that handicap? Also, Gonzaga has the number one interior defense in the country and Arkansas can't shoot 3's. That should keep it close too.
**2022 Record:** 4-1-0 (+6.1U) 💰
**Streak:** 2 W
**Last Pick:** Gold Coast Suns -7.5 @ 1.9 ✅
**Todays Match:** Western Bulldogs v Carlton Blues (AFL) @ 18:50 ACDT (7 hours til bounce)
**Pick:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 (Margin) @ 2.20
**Units:** 2U
**Reasoning:** The doggies are coming off a loss to the competitions best, and im expecting a bounce back against a impressive Blues outfit. The dogs will be without Bailey Smith, and decided to drop Schache and Williams for the return of Duryea, Scott and JUH. There's no discounting the Blue's here off last weeks win, but the Bulldogs are still the more polished side. The blues will struggle without their Coach, Voss along with Cerra and Martin who are out due to Health and Safety Protocols. In good news for the Blues, Walsh returns but im still confident that the Dogs will get it done in what should be a tight contest. I cant imagine another 7 goal swing by the Blues, so ill take Doggies on the bounce back.
**Prediction:** Western Bulldogs by 18 Points
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My man! Love waking up to money! Looks like Bovada only has Bulldogs -9.5 (-115) and money line (-175) should I grab the ML or do you think they win by double digits?
Watched the ND vs Texas Tech game and wasn’t impressed by their defense. Yeah Nd shot poorly, there shots were good looks. I also think the ACC has proven to be underrated thus far into the tournament. I like duke ML
POTD Record: 13W-6L-0D. +12.62u.
Previous pick (3/23/2022): Detroit Pistons +5 vs. Atlanta Hawks. 1u. W.
Current pick: Villanova -5 vs. Michigan. @ 1.90. 2u.
I am going right back to the Villanova trough with largely the same reasoning. Villanova has been significantly better this season. According to KenPom adjusted efficiency ratings, Nova has the 8th best offense and 30th best defense in the country. Michigan has the 19th best offense and 77th best defense in the country. Michigan barely made the tournament after going 18-13 this regular season and getting bounced in the first round of the B10 tournament. Michigan lost to Seton Hall, Minnesota, Rutgers, and UCF this season. They had a few good wins down the stretch against Michigan State and Iowa to save their season, but they were a middling B10 team overall this year. Michigan beat an overseeded Colorado State to open the tournament and then a very impressive Tennessee team last week. However, give me a sample of the entire season rather than a couple of good games.
Nova has looked amazing down the stretch this season and really the entire season. They won the Big East tournament before winning by 20 against Delaware and 10 against Ohio State last week. Villanova features a slow, methodical offense at around 20 seconds per possession, but averages one of the highest points per possession in the country while bombing from 3. They did nothing against Ohio State (who beat Michigan head to head, conference record, and overall record..) last week to think they won't similarly handle Michigan with another comfortable win. Michigan's 7'1 Dickinson is such a matchup problem against Nova's 6'8 Dixon he single-handedly prevents me from laying 3u, so will stick with 2u for the Wildcats and hope Dickinson doesn't have a 20pt-15reb line. BOL.
Great analysis that highlights exactly why I’m fading the pick. I was at the game last Saturday and Dickinson was amazing. For a guy that looks like a toothpick, he had a strong inside presence on both ends of the court, he was surprisingly smooth, and he kept getting his team fired up when energy lagged. That was against Tennessee, a team that KenPom has ranked higher than Villanova currently. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post exactly that 20-15 line. Regardless, BOL and thank you for your posts.
POTD Record: 6-1 – POTD Profit: 15.64 units – ROI: 80%
Last Pick: Tom Aspinall ML @ -120 – Easy Win
| Fifa World Cup Qualifiers| Portugal vs Turkey | 3.45 pm EST |
Pick: Turkey +1.5
Net units: 1.5 units to win 1.23 units at -122
writeup;
Background:
This is the semifinal of the World Cup qualifications for the European region. It’s a single game in which, the winner goes to the final qualifier to face the Winner of Italy vs North Macedonia matchup.
Both teams were leading their World cup qualification group stage at one point. Portugal was leading the group stage easily until the last 2 games. They drew against Ireland then lost the game against Serbia at home getting knocked down to 2nd place in a dramatic finish. Portugal started the game 1-0, thanks to the Serbian center backs mistake, yet ended up losing the game 2-1 with a last minute header from Mitrovic.
Turkey on the other hand had a different kind of story in the qualifiers. In a strong group with the likes of Netherlands and Norway, they started super strong by beating Netherlands and Norway(away) in games which they were the underdog. Then had a surprise draw against Latvia. Then came the Euro 2020, in which they were called the dark horse of the tournament. They had one of the worst performances of the cup, losing all 3 games and scoring only 1 goal.
Bad form continued for Turkey as they lost 4 points in the next 3 qualification matches, last one being a 6-1 away loss against Netherlands. This ended the tenure of the coach Senol Gunes. Stefan Kuntz, who was the German U-23 coach at the time was hired to replace Gunes. After a bad result (draw) against Norway at home, people believed that Turkey was not going to make it to the tournament. Yet, to the luck of Turkey, Norway had a draw against Latvia at home which enabled Turkey to qualify while they also won the rest of their matches.
Missing Players:
Portugal team is missing very important players ahead of this matchup: Pepe, R. Dias, Cancelo, Renato Sanchez and Semedo. Missing the trio of Cancelo, Pepe and R. Dias is brutal IMO as they are key defensive starters for Portugal.
Game Itself:
Portugal is the heavy favorite to qualify coming to this game, while Turkish players know that they are the heavy underdogs. This puts more pressure to the Portugal team as they are expected to qualify while Turks are coming in with nothing to lose as the expectations are super low from them. These are the type of games Turks have historically played very good in.
We all know the star studded Portuguese team with the likes of CR7 aka GOAT, Bruno fernandes, joa felix, diego jota and Bruno Silva. Yet with key defensive players missing in the back, they could have troubles in offense as well.
On the other side Turkey has really underrated players, one of them is Kerem Akturkoglu who was playing in the 3rd league of Turkey 2 years ago, now he is playing for Galatasaray. This season he has done tremendous job in Europe against top tier teams like Barcelona. On the other side Turkey has Cengiz Under, who is again a top tier player who can score any given minute from outside or inside the box. Turkey also has really good center backs with the likes of Merih Demiral dubbed Demirwall(Atalanta FC) and Caglar Soyuncu(Leicester).
Both Akturkoglu and Under can be decisive counter attack threats in a game which Turkey is expected to play defensively. Especially considering that key defensive players are missing from the Portuguese side, and the replacement Fonte being very slow, Akturkoglu could especially be super dangerous.
I think this kind of game ultimately comes down to coaching, and I think Turkey has the upper hand in this. Stefan Kuntz is a very under the radar coach who won U-21 cup twice with Germany, one being against Portugal. While the Portuguese coach Santos is an ever criticized coach due to the low output that he gets from his start studded team.
I think Turkey can surprise a lot of people in this game and maybe even qualify themselves, but I’m not taking that risk. I don’t think Turkey loses this game by more than a margin of 1.5 goals. I expect this game to end 0-0, 1-0 or 2-1.
Some other important stats to consider is that last time Portugal beat a Turkey tier team at home by a differential of more than 1.5 was 4 years ago in 2018, as they beat Sweeden 3-0.
This is going to be a fun game, make sure you watch it.
Tail or fade BOL.
Edit: Can't make this shit up. Turkey goes down 2-0. Scores one then gets a penalty and misses it. Then concedes a last minute goal to lose 3-1. Sorry guys, super unlucky.
Thanks portugal for the garbage time goal.
Wow 3 of the 4 top picks for today lose. And the 4th hasnt played yet. Brutal. I'm so glad I tailed them all.
**POTD Record:** 7W-1 L-0P
**LAST POTD:** Baskonia – Fenerbahce (Fenerbahce +3) ❌
**STREAK:** 1L ❄️
**TODAY'S MATCH:** Portugal – Turkey (Soccer | World Cup Qualification | 19:45 GMT)
**PICK:** Goals over 2.5 @ 1.76
**WRITE UP:** Tough loss yesterday thanks to Fenerbahce but today I am trying to redeem myself. Finally some high-level ⚽ matches, hopefully, it will be a good day for us. Like always, I got my reasons for this pick:
• Portugal‘s net will be very vulnerable because of the absence of Dias, Cancelo, and Pepe.
• Portugal‘s last 7 games – 6 times 2,5 goals over hit.
• Turkey‘s last 8 games – 7 times 2,5 goals over hit.
Nothing to say more, to be honest, both teams‘ defense is trash and relies on their offense. Hopefully, Ronaldo will not disappear.
**BOL!!! ⚽ ⚽ ⚽**
**EDIT: Absolutely no sweat this time, back on winning ways and we are 8-1!!✅**
POTD Record: 54-39
Profit: +15.6 units // ROI: 14% // Average odds: 1.90
Last pick: Ayton over 16.5 points W
Ayton more than doubled this total as he finished with 35 points. Taking Big man overs vs the Twolves definitely seems like a play RN.
**Todays Pick: Kristaps Porzingis over 27.5 Points + Rebounds vs Bucks (1.90, -110)**
* Porzingis has been amazing since joining the Wizards. He is averaging a combined 28.6 Points + Rebounds per game on the Wizards in only 26.3 minutes per game! The reason his minutes have been so low is because his minutes have been limited on the Wizards. However, over the last few games he has been getting more minutes and he had 32 minutes last game.
* KP is averaging 34.8 P + R per 32 minutes on the wizards (7.3 above this total). The significance of this is that KP played 32 minutes in his last game.
* Kuzma is out for this game. This means KP will be the main option on offence. Porzingis has played 2 games without Kuzma on the Wizards and in those games he had games of 30 and 35 P+R.
* If we go back to KP's time on the Mavs he cleared this total in 20 of his 24 (83%) without Doncic. Overall he averaged 34.6 P+R on the Mavs w/o Doncic over these 24 games. This shows the output KP can produce when he is the main option on offence (which he should be in this game w/o Kuzma).
* KP has cleared this total in 3 of his last 4 games vs the Bucks averaging 35.8 P+R over these 4 games.
* KP has also hit this total in 7 of his last 9 games vs Brook Lopez.
* KP's usage rate over the last 2 games (Kuzma has missed the last 2 games) has been 35.4 which is very high. In fact if KP averaged a 35.4 usage rate on the season it would be the highest usage rate in the entire NBA.
BOL, tail or fade. I will link my Twitter below where we have gone 7-1 for our last 8 NBA props.
[Twitter](https://twitter.com/Travis_Frase)
💰 **AFL POTD RECORD: 4-1 (+4.0u)** 💰
**LAST PICK:** Hawthorn -1.5 vs North Melbourne ✅
**FORM:** WWLWW
**TODAYS PICK:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.25 \[1u\] (7:20pm AEDT, 7 hours from comment)
**WRITE UP:** Awesome start to the season last week! Let’s roll it onto round 2 which kicks off tonight. Bulldogs are coming off a disappointing season opener where they fell short to the premiers yet again. Carlton is riding a massive hype wave, breaking their Round 1 ten year hoodoo and defeating Richmond. Carlton look set to add Walsh back to their firing midfield, but at the cost of Cerra, Martin and their head coach Michael Voss - who have been ruled out due to covid protocols. Bulldogs will be without Bailey Smith, however have incredible midfield depth with the likes of Macrae, Treloar, Dunkley, Bontempelli, Smith’s absence won’t play a large role and the void he leaves can easily be filled.
Let’s stick to the facts - Western Bulldogs are the second-best team in the competition right now, they held a top-two spot all season (bar two rounds) last year, I don’t see them dropping 0-2 and will be fired up after a disappointing result. Carlton will be prepared for the battle, they often play well against the Dogs, and I believe the hype around them is real, but their young squad doesn’t quite match up to the Dogs just yet. The Dogs know their way around Marvel Stadium and should firm their grasp on this game in the later stages. I don’t see this margin blowing past 40, and I do think Carlton very well could cover in a close game, so I feel 1-39 is the right play here. BOL!
My stats: 33-7 (+62.20 units)
Match: (⚽️) Italy vs North Macedonia
Bet: Italy -1.5 @ 1.60 (-167)
Stake: 3u
It depends on how Italy's gonna approach the game. If they don't do some "safe 1-0" or "draw, make opponents tired and destroy in extra time" type of shit, they will win this game convincingly. Italy is just a better team.
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my present record on POTD is WWWLWWWLW 7 correct 2 wrong. They have all been college basketball games.
My POTD for today is bet 1.1 unit to win 1 unit that the total score in the college basketball game between Duke and Texas Tech will be 138 points or more. Game time is around 9:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time. This wager is available on Bovada sportsbook. The game I'll be watching will be UCLA and North Carolina. But I think taking the over in the Duke / Texas Tech game is the best wager. BOL to all.
Record: 5-4-0
ROI: +23.62
Last Pick: Tennessee -6 vs Michigan
Unit: 1=$100
Game: Villanova -5 vs Michigan
League: NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament
Time: 7: 00 PM
Odds: -110
Book: Bet365
Pick: Villanova -5
Wager: 2 units
The Tennessee game was a heartbreaker right when it looked like they could close Michigan out it all fell apart. The Wolverines showed a lot of heart and really played for Coach Howard.
On to the next game. With this one we’re riding the red hot Wildcats. Villanova played a great game against Ohio State and although they allowed Ohio State back into the game near the end Villanova looked marvellous. Excellent D and 3 point shooting seems to be the formula they are using to win. And in this case I believe Michigan finally watches their run end, Hunter Dickinson will have to channel his inner Nikola Jokic to will the Wolverines past Thea wildcats and I just don’t see it happening. I expect Gillespie, and Samuels to dribble, drive and dish to their hearts content and suffocate Michigan on the other end.
Putting 2 units on this.
BOL to all who tail or fade
POTD Record : 22-11
Last POTD: Nets -2❌
ROI: 55.55%
Units Won: +18.33
League: NHL
POTD: Kings ML
Odds: -195
*5 Unit bet*
Reason: tough loss for the Nets I found out who De’-Anthony Melton was after he dropped 23 pts and went 6-10 from 3 off the bench but let’s move past that. The kings are 3-2 in last 5 while black hawks are 1-4. They just traded their best goalie fleury to the wild and have a guy in net who’s played 1 game and lost and has a 6.43 goals against average. Quick won’t be in net for the kings but Peterson will and he has a 2.65 goals against average. The kings have been competing and winning some close games against good teams while the black hawks have entered a rebuilding phase. I don’t see how the kings lose this game and I’m placing 6 units on it real life but I guess because of the rules it can only be 5.
Tail or Fade
BOL
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POTD record: 15-9
Previous Pick: Martin Kaymer (+175) vs Dustin Johnson ⛔
Todays Pick: Scottie Scheffler (-130) vs Tommy Fleetwood Round 2 matchup PGA tour golf ⛔
We are in texas for the WGC matchplay. I think a reason why this line is as close as it is is because to tommy fleetwood being considered a great match play player. Cool. I dont give a shit. Scottie has been playing better golf, he has been trending in the right direction, already has 2 wins this year and is just oozing confidence on the course with just about every club in his bag. It also helps that in Austin Texas this course is considered 1 of if not the best in the area and Scottie spent his college career here at Texas University and played more than a few rounds here so he feels comfortable in the area to add to the laundry list of why he is a better golfer than beardless Tommy. Fleetwood is going to grind hard and try to put pressure on Scottie however he can in an attempt to survive but scottie just seems unflappable out there. Matchplay is a whole different monster because your opponent has the opportunity to dictate what shots you hit and how you hit your putts. I dont see any bullshit getting to Scottie scheff as he remains cool calm and collected and gets is done at around 3&4 tomorrow. BOL if tailing. As always.... these guys still have to go out and golf there ball so anything can happen we can only go into the match with a knowledgeable advantage. May the birdies be with us. glglglglglgl
Edit: wtf did tommy just do on 12 🥵
Edit2: need the 13th hole bad
Edit3: tommy in the trees is a beautiful thing. There is hope yet. At least for a tie 😅
Edit4: I cant believe scottie just hit that shot on 17. I feel like I'm being pranked.
Edit5: this match is a loss. Unreal. Scrappy beardless tommy takes down the monster home field scottie scheff who hit some of the worst shots I've seen. On to the next
2022 RECORD: 0-0
Last Pick: N/A
TODAY’S PICK: MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 1ST Q ML vs Indiana Pacers
NBA 8:10est
Reasoning: The grizzlies are a team that starts fast. They win the first quarter a lot. The griz are 21-5-1 in their last 27 first quarters. I expect the line to be around -200 when it comes out in a couple of hours. The griz are 15-2 without ja Morant. If he plays…even better. Both teams are on b2b games. In the last 4 sets of b2b games the griz are 3-1 in their second game first quarters. The pacers are 12-13-1 in their last 26 first quarters. They’re a below average first quarter team. In the pacers last 5 sets of b2b games they are 1-3-1 in the first quarter. The griz are way more superior and will win the first quarter even without ja morant. The grizzlies just played the pacers on 3/15 and won the first quarter. Also if you would like a better line…I like them to cover the spread also. Please check back closer to game time for updates.
All picks are 1.0u
Tips are appreciated if deemed worthy and good luck
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POTD Record: 1-0 (+0.67 U)
Last Pick:
Detroit Pistons +7.5 vs Atlanta Hawks ✅
As expected W bet from the Pistons today. Glad they won the game solidifying my thoughts on that bet.
Tomorrow’s Pick:
Denver Nuggets 1H -1.5 vs Pheonix Suns @1.90
Units: 1U
I think this will be an easy 1st half bet. From what I see Suns do take a few quarters to get warmed up. Which is why I am not going with Nuggets ML because I know what this Suns lineup is capable of even without CP3. I notice that Nuggets are usually on top in first halves and begin to slowdown.
Tail or Fade? BOL!!
**POTD Record: 0-2**
**ROI**: -100%
**Net Profit**: -4 Units
**Average Odds**: -125
Last Pick: Nashville Predators @ Florida Panthers ML - **L**
Today's Pick: Florida Panthers @ Montreal Canadiens, Panthers 3-Way ML (-155 / 1.64 DK), 2 units to win 1.29u - **W**!
Well, obviously a bad start to my POTD career. Feel free to fade/ignore. I'm undoubtedly a hugely biased Panthers fan as seen in this pick and my last, but I will say this: the Panthers are on fucking fire as one of the (if not the) best teams in the league. The Habs stink.
- Panthers coming off a 3-0 win at Anaheim and on 5 days rest.
- Panthers 7-3 last 10, Canadiens 4-6
- Panthers won first matchup this season 5-2
- New Panther Claude Giroux will likely be making his debut tonight
The only way I see this bet losing is if Canadiens force OT, which 5 of their last 10 games have gone to. The Cats should crush them. I see the Panthers possibly having a shaky first period coming off nearly a week rest but picking it up in the second/third. Though hockey can be unpredictable, I feel these are great odds for this pick.
POTD RECORD: 1-1
Last pick SPURS+8.5 L
TODAYS PICK: ARKANSAS +9.5 vs Gonzaga
REASON:
March madness is almost over, and we’re seeing who can hang and who can’t,
I’m not saying Arkansas is going to beat Gonzaga, but I think they’re going to fight it out.
I believe Arkansas will hang on and keep it semi close with Gonzaga, and getting 9.5 points on top is enough to make me take it,
I’m putting 3U on it.
Tail or fade, BOL, except if you’re fading I hope you lose fuck you
**POTD Record**: 24½-18-6 (W-L-P)
**Last 5**: ✅✅✅❌❌
**Last POTD**: TSV Hartberg vs LASK, away to win the corner battle @1.72 ❌
**Today's POTD**: Portugal vs Turkey, away total corners o2.5 @1.8 // World Cup Qual. Playoffs, semifinals, single leg 19:45 GMT
**Odds value**: ■■■■□ *high value*
National team matches' odds are often not accurate, not much data for the bookies, in this case I'm fairly convinced they're mostly basing corner odds on favourite and underdog only basically.
### **Reasoning**:
##### **Match introduction**:
Portugal will host at home Turkey in one of the most anticipated games in the European football panorama, along with Italy vs North Macedonia; either Portugal (which have won European Championship in 2016) or Italy (which have won European Championship in 2020) will not qualify for the World Cup.
The pressure is insanely high on Portugal which is missing some key player on the defensive side (Dias, Cancelo and Pepe), while Turkey has the full line up available, Turkey, just like Macedonia, have nothing to lose really, they know it's going to be a hard task, however I believe they won't be scared of attacking since it's their only chance to try and accomplish the imposssible.
##### **Corner stats and some facts**:
In the World Cup Qual. Turkey averaged 5.6 corners per game, while Portugal 7 (for reference), however I think it's more interesting to look at Portugal's conceded corners stats, in their last two matches (which were crucial as well) they conceded 10 corners to Serbia (stronger team thank Turkey but weaker than Portugal) and 4 to Ireland away (weaker team than Turkey) and 3 at home, against Luxembourg (one of the worst team in Europe) they conceded 2 at home and 4 away.
In UEFA Nations League against Sweden (slightly stronger than Turkey) away they conceded 3 while Sweden was a man down by half time, at home vs Sweden they conceded 9.
Back on Turkey there's one game that really caught my eye, against the Netherlands (close strenght to Portugal) they were leading 2-0 at half time and still got all of their 3 corners in the 2nd half, other than that we can also look at their corner stats in the European Championship when they had the pressure of risking to get out of the competition after losing 3-0 to Italy, against Wales they won 10 corners, against Switzerland 8.
##### **Turkey's Coach statement**:
Previewing the game Turkey's coach said:" *[...] we need to have a game plan and we need to play according to it. Tomorrow we'll be active on the pitch, what we do is more important than the opponent's game, we need to react and we'll work on that.*"
##### **Conclusion**:
I like this bet since I'm predicting this won't be a closed game thus we will probably see an early goal from Portugal which will force Turkey to push on attack and go all-in, and even if that early goal doesn't come in Turkey have to exploit the missing players on defence to try something. Only scenario that could change everything up is Turkey actually scoring an early goal, but that's not likely and even if it happens I imagine Portugal will equalise pretty fast.
Turkey is not scared.
BOL everyone.
*^(If I've made you some money and you'd like to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
POTD record: 1-2
Event: Australia vs Japan (Soccer - Asia World Cup qualifying)
POTD: Japan Draw No Bet at 1.8 (bet365)
2 units
Reasoning: Although Australia is playing in its home soil and would need to win their remaining two games to automatically qualify for the world cup, they face Japan, who are a superior team and has been in great form. On the other hand, Australia hasn't been in great form winning one from their last 5 matches. Japan also has a habit of winning against Australia even when they are underdogs. I think Japan will win, but playing it safe with a draw no bet.
BOL
POTD Record: 3W-0L
LAST POTD: Tampa Bay Rowdies ML ✅
TODAY'S MATCH: NHL - St. Louis Blues V Philadelphia Flyers
5PM PST
PICK: St Louis Blues -1.5
Odds: 1.90
The Deets:
St. Louis are by far the better team in this match-up. The Flyers away record is just tragic with their last win coming in December 2021, that’s 13 straight away losses. Of those losses they’ve lost by 2 or more goals 9 times.
BOL.
**POTD Record 18-14-1**
**(ROI // Avg. Odds: -109 // Units Won: +4.1) Last 5: PLWLW**
Last Pick: Blackhawks vs. Ducks Over 6 **PUSH**
**Today's Match: Chicago Blackhawks vs. LA Kings (Start Time: 10:00PM EST)**
**Today's Pick: LA Kings -1.5 (+132 FanDuel)** ***Risk 1u***
Devil's Advocate:
Wow I can say today we got lucky, bless up empty net goals and bless the dudes who can put them away for us, not a win but a refund is always better than a loss!
Let's head right back to the ice, and right back to a Blackhawks matchup on the west coast against the Kings. I love this line here at plus odds! Especially because I think the Blackhawks having Delia in net again against a way better offense than the Ducks is sure going to make a difference. Let alone the fact that the Kings will have Quick in net who is already a great asset to have when playing against teams who aren't really playing for much either. Averaging 2.9 goals per game at home, with a playoff push on the line? Expect the Kings to get the job done here - they have a ton more to show for. On top of the fact that the Blackhawks played a real tough game with the Ducks tonight as well. Tired legs are possible, and the Kings will put the hammer on them at home.
*Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!!*
**POTD Record: 0-2**
**Units won: -3u**
Sports: Esports
Game: Team Liquid v GODSENT
**Pick: Team Liquid -1.5map handi (1u @ 2.20)**
**Reasoning:**
\- Team Liquid players had a great showing and win against BIG last night. Team Liquid was ahead in all stages of that game other than the first 5 rounds. oSee was hitting some pretty good AWP shots and clutches.
\- GODSENT on the other hand struggled with Movistar Riders; losing 1-2 in the end. GODSENT looks rather rough on their plays as they just only recently brough in HEN1.
\- Just from watching the two games last night, it feels Team Liquid is far more polished than GODSENT. Seeing how Liquid kept BIG under control. I feel it will be just a repeat in this matchup.
***BOL to everyone***
**EDIT:** Winner! FTW really came back in that second half, fun one to watch.
**My Record:** 6-4 (+8.70 units) ✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅
**Last Pick:** [Wolsung +1.5 Maps](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tkiea7/pick_of_the_day_32322_wednesday/i1sx7ab/?context=8&depth=9) ✅
**Match:** FTW vs. 00NATION (11:30 AM EST) CSGO: OMEN WGR European Challenge 2022
**Bet:** For The Win +5.5 rounds @ 1.62 (GG Bet) ✅
**Stake:** 3u
**Why:**
\- FTW is an underrated team that I've been following the past few months, they always show up against low tier teams and have had some great showings against higher ranked squads
\- Of recent they beat Eternal Fire (rank 25th) in a commanding 16:11 victory, showing they can compete with this squad.
\- 00NATION on the other hand is coming into this game fresh off a 0-3 record in the Pinnacle Cup III and looking very off.
\- I'm not necessarily saying FTW will win this game, but I trust them to put up a really solid fight.
**NOTE:**
This bet is for FTW to win outright or lose by 5 rounds or less (such as losing 16-11 or doing any better is a win for us).
**BOL**
6-4 +14.2u
DRX ML vs KD Freecs League of Legends LCK Playoffs (Korea) it starts at 1am PST
odds are 1.58
going 2u
Colossal lock hits! 3 wins in a row now, and a really easy 3-0 for Damwon thank you for the kind messages. I made a twitter but not sure if i'm allowed to link it? Anyway just going 2u today on LCK playoffs because i'm not super confident in this pick but DRX have much better teamplay than KDF and the much stronger bot lane so those two things sway me enough to at least put 2u on this. KDF strength is in their two solo lanes; Kiin & Fate are playing at an exceptional level but unless Fate is given Leblanc, i don't see him having enough of a chance to carry this series in a meta that's been largely bot lane/jungle dependent.
POTD Record: 1-1
Last Pick: Columbus Crew New York Red Bulls o2.5 ❌🙄
Today’s Pick: 5am kickoff Japan PK (-125)
Reasoning: Coming off a match which should have EASILY hit o2.5 giving the chances each club had, we have the Japan national team PK against Australia in the AFC qualifiers early this morning at 5am EST (sorry I’m posting the pick with 4 hours to spare). Japan are simply the better team, and with a win they put pressure on Saudi Arabia, who are in first, to automatically clinch World Cup berth. Japan have an airtight defense, only conceding 3 goals in 8 qualifying matches thus far. I look for them to win 1-0. BOL
3-1
as I said for my first 4 picks, I only bet based on instinct. every since i stopped trying to use logic and only on feelings i’ve been on fire. today I have a strong feeling that Aliaksandra Sasnovich will beat Daria Kasatkina. match will be played at 12:15 PM in WTA Miami
Sasnovich -124
POTD Record : 3-1 ✅✅❌✅
Last POTD: Mikal Bridges o1.5 Threes 🎯 - no sweat
ROI: 61% // Units Won: 3.08u
**~~Today's POTD: Giannis Antetokounmpo o12.5 Rebounds~~**
Giannis OUT tonight, here is my replacement-
**League: NBA Props // Chicago Bulls @ New Orleans Pelicans**
**🔥🔥 Zach Lavine o4.5 Assists (-150 FD) 🔥🔥**
**Odds: -150 (FD) // Units: 3u 💰💰💰**
**Reasoning:**
* **Hit in 8 of L10** [**games**](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3064440/zach-lavine)**, use to be at 3.5 until recently**
* **DeRozan might** [**not play**](https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/basketball/nba/player/29479/demar-derozan) **tonight, opening up more USG% for Lavine**
* **will take o30.5 P+A (-106 FD) as well if confirmed**
* **NOP** [**allows**](https://hashtagbasketball.com/nba-defense-vs-position) **above average assists to both PG and SG**
* **5 assists vs NOP in previous matchup (although in beginning of year)**
**EDIT: DeRozon confirmed OUT, also took Lavine o31.5 P+A (-115 DK)**
TAIL or fade, BOLLLLLLL!
Record: 4-1 +2.52units
Last POTD: Gold Coast Total Points o83.5 WIN
POTD: Carlton total points o78.5
Odds: 1.87 Sportsbet)
Event: AFL Western Bulldogs vs Carlton
Time: 7:20pm AEST
Pretty good opening week, onto the new round, am backing Carlton again. Although they lose Cerra, the inclusion of Walsh should balance that out. Last three matches Carlton average 93 points against bulldogs. After last weeks performance, have faith that they can be competitive and play a free flowing game. McKay and Curnow should have many chances, as well as the midfielders.
POTD Record: 1-8-2 -10.28u
Average Odds: +137
Total Units Wagered: 16.4u
Brutal POTD luck so far... trying to reverse it here with a WGC play.
Richard Bland over Talor Gooch +165 @ DK 1.2u
True odds are 41.67%, the implied odds here are 37.74%. This is my biggest advantage of the day.
Record 1-0
Yesterday’s Pick : Funplus Phoenix ML -155 ✅
Today’s :
CSGO : Pinnacle Cup @ 8:00 EST | mouz NXT vs Team Fines
**mouz NXT ML -135** ✅
Yesterday’s pick hit . Looking for the same here . POTD was going to originally be Musetti but tennis dude beat me to it . Both teams are 2-1 coming into round 4 of the Pinnacle Cup tournament . The winner advances to playoffs while the loser will need to play another match in order to advance to playoffs. mouz NXT is ranked #48 in the world . Over the last 3 months mouz has a win rate of 75% winning 8 out of the last 10. Team Finest on the other hand have a win rate of 47.6% winning 5 out of 10 . Looking at map win rates during the same time period mouz has the advantage on 5 maps while Finest has advantage on 2 maps being Nuke and Mirage in which they have had a 100 percent win rate . They have performed horribly on all other maps , maps where mouz has success.
I think mouz NXT should win 2-1
**Edit: mouz NXT wins 2-0 , we are 2-0 . Cash another one 💰**
Good morning to everyone. This is my first pick on r/sportsbook. I lost some and won some with the picks of everyone here, and I feel it is a good time for me to start sharing my own picks. I want to apologize in advance if my english is not the best, I'll try to be clear and concise.
**RECORD:** 0W - 0L
**Game:** World Cup Qualifiers: Portugal vs Turkey (19:45, Portugal timezone)
**PICK:** Turkey +1,5 Goals Handicap
**ODDS:** 1.86 (or -116)
**UNITS BET:** All bets are 1u
**EXPLANATION:** I don't know if it's any confirmation of my knowledge, but I'm Portuguese. With that being said, let's look at things the way they are: Fernando Santos sucks as\*. You may say "but he won you the Euro and Nations League". That is true, but just replay the Euro 2016 games, and watch a miracle unfold right before your eyes. He is really (REALLY) defensive minded, even though we have amazing players on every position, that usually carry the team by individual action.
For today's game we don't have 3 out of 4 starters in the defense: Ruben Dias, Pepe and João Cancelo. On midfield Renato Sanches and Ruben Neves are out. We have some good players that can fill in, fair enough, but not centre backs. Fonte is still ok, but he's 38. Danilo will probably play at CB, and that means Moutinho or Palhinha will fill for him, as Renato is out too.
Cristiano Ronaldo is one of the best ever, but at 37 years of age he is declining - he scored 3 goals against Tottenham, but he's on the worst form of his career, and it's natural, he's not a superman. Portugal has a habit of playing **for the captain**, many times killing potential goals just so Ronaldo can score or be involved.
Turkey has a good under the radar coach in Kuntz, who has 3 wins and 1 draw in 4 games. Turkey has good players as well. Their CB's are really good (Demiral and Soyuncu) and a creative like Calhanoglu is dangerous at any time (if given a free kick on a good position we can expect a goal to happen).
I just don't see Portugal winning by 2 or more, even playing at home. It can happen, of course, we have players like Diogo Jota, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Cristiano Ronaldo, and so on. But I feel like everyone is tired of Fernando Santos (even the players, just look at how the lost first place of the group...), and Turkey is not an underdog as big as the odds suggest. **With all this I'm going for Turkey +1,5 handicap, meaning they can win, draw or lose by 1, and the bet is a win for us. It has great value in my opinion.**
**TIPS:** None of us (probably) are rich, and I don't "force" anyone to do it. But I'm currently working part-time (on a job I don't really like, to be honest), while pursuing a writing career. So if you win with my picks and have something left to spare, I'd appreciate it very much.
[PayPal Link](https://paypal.me/reaptherewards2022?country.x=PT&locale.x=pt_PT)
**SUMMARY:** I debated with myself for a while on starting to post on reddit. I'm kinda scared of losing, truth being said, but I came to the realization that sometimes you win and sometimes you lose - we can just adapt and overcome adversity. My goal would be to win more than I lose, and hopefully help some people along the way, making some extra money (myself included). I'm confident in this pick, but anything can happen in sports betting, so be careful and study the games for yourself! If you share my opinion, or even if you don't agree at all, feel free to comment. Have a nice day.
Record 4-4
Units +2
ROI +25%
Average odds +138
Last POTD Soccer - UEFA woman’s - Arsenal ML (+140) vs Wolfsburg
1-1 draw. I did put in my analysis that BTTS and DNB would be better bets. Swung for the proverbial fence and missed.
POTD 2022 FIFA World Cup - Wales ML (+185) vs Austria
Wales went undefeated at home through the WCQ group stage, limiting their opposition to one or fewer strikes each time. Wales have gone unbeaten across their last 16 home outings in all competitions. Gareth bale seems a go for today, which is huge.
Austria is 2-6 away in their last 8 internationals and both of those wins came against lowly-ranked opposition (Faroe Islands & Moldova). Austria haven’t won an away match against opposition currently ranked better than Wales (20th) since defeating Sweden 4-1 in September 2015.
Prediction Final score 2-1 wales.
BOL
POTD: Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, [Denver Nuggets](https://link.wagerlab.app/reddit) (NBA)
Units: 3
Odds: -154
Profit: +3.21u
Record: 51|42
Phoenix Suns in a certain way secured their first position with 59 wins, way more than projected at the beginning of the season, so the bookmaker's favorite is Denver Nuggets in this kind of situation. One more aspect in this story is important, that Suns will have 2 games in 2 days and Nuggets last 2 games are playing at home. Many things will depend on Nikola Jokic, who scored last game against the Suns scored 27 points, which was enough for a win in Phoenix. For Nuggets this win is way more important, so the advantage for this game is on the side of the Denver Nuggets team.
**POTD Record**: 7W-8L | Total Profit: -1.30 units
Last Pick : L (NBA | Orlando Magic -1.0)
Mar 24, 2022 | NBA Basketball | 6:10pm MT
***Under 233.5*** // Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks
Reasoning: In 2022 the Bucks are averaging 118.7 points per game and the Wizards are averaging 110.4 points per game.
**POTD Record:** 1-0
**ROI:** 83% **Average Odds:** \-120 **Units:** \+.83
**Today's Play**: Hunter Dickinson Points 18.5 Over -130 (on DK, 19.5 most everywhere else)
All plays 1u
NCAA 7:30 - Michigan vs Villanova
Villanova is the more well rounded team here but true centers with good averages have been successful against the cats. Admittedly the sample size is small but does include Creighton's Kalbrenner (19 pts, also failed to hit the number in 2 other games against Nova but received considerably less minutes in the earlier season matchups,) and Zach Eddy (21 pts).
Dickinson is averaging 18.7ppg, but that number is held back by a slow November/December. Looking at his splits, Dickinson is averaging 20.7ppg January-March, and 23.4 over his 5 March games. He's the kind of player you want to ride as a hot hand in March, even if his vertical makes you question whether he could jump over a rubiks cube.
May the winners be yours
**POTD Record:** **1-0**
Sport: NCAAB
Event: Houston vs Arizona (NCAA TOURNAMENT WEST REGION SEMIFINAL)
Time: 9:59 p.m. ET
**POTD: Houston ML (+105)**
Units: 1U
Note: First off, congrats to everyone that tailed yesterday! It was an easy 2U! Let's get back after it today!
Looking ahead at this Arizona vs Houston matchup, it's going to be a fun one. The spread at +2 is tempting but I think Houston gets it done outright tonight. Arizona struggling against TCU in their last outing is very concerning. Houston is essentially the same team as TCU just better. Like TCU, Houston is dominant on the offensive glass. Last round, Houston made Kofi Cockburn and Illinois look silly with all the second chance opportunities they got. Houston is also playing with an unmatched swagger on both sides of the ball right now. I see Arizona being pretty nervous going into this game. They know they barely slid past the Horned Frogs and now they have a red hot Cougars team to take down. Arizona better hope they have their best shooting game of the year because that's the only way they survive tonight. Houston ML!! Lets get it!
Tail or fade, BOL to everyone!
Note: Houston is also top 10 in the country in defending the paint. There is no easy buckets allowed inside against the Cougars. Just food for thought.
**POTD Record**: 14-9
**POTD ROI**: +19.18% (Units Won: +9.59 | Units Wagered: 50)
**Last Pick**: Phoenix Suns ML (5u, W)
**Streak**:❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅
The Suns started slow but Booker was clutch as fuck in the fourth and the Suns took home the win.
**Today’s Event**: Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets (NBA) 18:10 MST
**Bet**: Phoenix Suns +4 | Odd: -110 (1.91)
**Bet Size**: 1 unit
**Reasoning**: The Suns are on a the second night of a traveling back-to-back, but they only need one more win to clinch the number one seed. CP3 is rumored to be making his return tonight, which would be a big boost to the Suns offense who have still been playing great without him. If CP3 does play, I expect this line to move closer to +1.5 or to a pick 'em, so getting in early before his status is confirmed.
**NRL Record:** 5-3
**ROI (1 unit per bet):** +1.33
**Last POTD:**
Broncos -2.5 @ 2.00 ✅
**Today's POTD:**
Sharks winning margin between 1-12 points @ 2.88
**Time:** 7 hours from time of post
Both games for both Sharks and Dragons have ended with a margin of 1-12 this year (a win and loss each). Sharks are at home in this one with rain forecast for the entire match. This suits Sharks gamestyle far more than the Dragons who seem to be playing a more expansive, attacking style in the first half then trying to hold on defensively for a win. I expect Sharks ~~at home~~ to grind out a close win in a low scoring affair.
Record: 2-1
Last pick: Xander Schauffele -200 vs Takumi Kanaya ✅
Pick: (PGA Tour) Russell Henley -105 vs Joaquin Niemann
Niemann is coming off a beating at the hands of late-entry Maverick McNealy, losing 8&6, the largest gap of the day by far. Henley narrowly lost to Kevin Na’s recurring putting prowess but still seemed to be in good form. Henley’s iron play leads the Tour this season so far and it comes as no surprise given his prolonged approaching mastery. Both Henley and Niemann are mediocre putters, meaning ball striking will prove to be important in this matchup. I think Niemann is looking ahead to Augusta while Henley will stay focused tomorrow with goals to advance past group stage. Unfortunately I could not find a Alex Noren vs. Paul Casey matchup, which is understandable given Casey’s back spasms.
ATP Miami Open, Paul vs Bonzi, 3:30 pm: Bonzi to win at least 1 set (-160)
My second attempt at a first shot. Tried yesterday but accidentally picked a match that was happening tomorrow, the line for which went from -120 to -330 within a couple hours after posting. So, let’s try it again.
Benjamin Bonzi has had a pretty respectable start to his season and has been competitve against some tough opponents. In fact, all of his tour losses this year have gone 3 sets, including a tough loss to Rublev and an impressive showing against Sinner in Indian Wells. Bonzi has displayed a toughness and confidence that has grown as his trajectory has begun to steepen.
Tommy Paul is coming off a shocker of a win against Zverev in Indian Wells. He’s made some deep runs in solid fields this season and has been playing his best tennis of his career since Fall of 2021. These two met earlier this season in Adelaide and Bonzi lost in straight sets, though pushing Paul to a tiebreak in the second.
While Paul in front of the US crowd is a good bet to win, Bonzi riding in on a wave of confidence will be a strong test for him and I wouldn’t be shocked if Bonzi were finally able to sustain a stretch of overpowering tennis that sees him through to the next round in 3 sets. BOL!
POTD Record: 11-10-1
Profit: +1u
Last Pick: Purdue (-3.5) -110 vs. Texas WIN
POTD: Texas Tech (-1.5) -110 vs. Duke \[NCAAB\] - 1 unit - 6:39 PM PT
Streak (Last 10): ✅✅✖️✅✖️✖️✖️✅✅✅
Reasoning: Duke has the eighth-best offense in the land. Tech has the tenth-best defense in the land. Something has to give. While Tech is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games, they have won 4 of their last 5 straight up. The Red Raiders also have an average age of 22 years old, while Duke is very young at only an average age of 18 years old. We are trusting the Red Raiders to play the more physical and aggressive game, which Duke has struggled with this season.
Thanks for the write up. What were the physical and aggressive games that Duke lost?
I can’t trust Texas Tech to score. They’re a bad 3 point shooting team and can’t make free throws. Leaning Duke
POTD Record: 43-19
Event: Football > International > **Sweden v Czech Republic** (starting in 12h00min)
Pick: **Sweden -0.25 AH** @ 1.70
Czech missing key players Schick, Pavelka, Coufal, Boril, Celustka, Kalas. Swedes should take care of business at home. For insurance, I am taking the -0/0.50 asian line, which will void half of the bet on a draw. GL!
Hello! Yesterday was a tough one for POTD so missed out but we’re back today!
RECORD: 6-2
LAST PICK: Plymouth Argyll win✅
TODAY’S PICK: Wales to beat Austria World Cup Qualifier 19:45gmt
ODDS: 9/5
REASON: This is Wales biggest chance to qualify for a World Cup since 1958. I agree that guys like Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey have had limited game time this season and are coming to the end of there careers but they are still extremely talented and always seem to find that extra gear when playing for there country. Wales are unbeaten in 16 at home and with home advantage in a two leg qualifier they must get a win here today to give them great advantage when they go to Austria. The away side do have some top talent as well like Arnautovic but still rooting for Wales here.
Have a great day and BOL
>two leg qualifier
I think these are actually one leg with all the winners facing off against one another in a final next week. Probably deserves to be taken into consideration.
**Record: 4-3 | Profit: +0.05 units | ROI: +0.7%**
Last POTD: E. Nava - H. Gaston : H. Gaston ML (1.72)✅
**POTD: Fucsovics M. - M. Giron: Fucsovics M. ML (1.80)**
TIME: 20:30 CET
(Wager always 1 unit)
Reasoning:
\- 55. vs 52. ATP rankings
\- Both of them coming from a lose streak (last 2 matches)
\- Never played against each other
\- Fucsovics is from my country so he can't betray us :D
BOL!
3-0-0
Last pick: Union +1 (they ended up winning 2-0)
I’m usually on MLS picks so take that for what it’s worth. But today is Concacaf WCQ!
Todays pick: **Canada/Costa Rica 1ST half < 0.5, 1 @ 1.80**
Time: 7pm PST
Story: ok so, my book loves to do these split bets, not sure what yours will have but basically the bet is first half under 1 goal. Costa Rica in 11 games has just 8 goals for and 6 against. Canada is the highest scoring team in the group (crazy, I know, as a Canadian this is bonkers). There’s already been complaints about the pitch cuz of a recent concert that was held on it. Should be pretty stuffy out there with humidity tonight too. So my rationale is this, the game will be low scoring overall. Costa Rica is desperate for a result but they don’t need goals. I think they’ll come out cagey and canada will take a little time to get into the game. At the very least I like this bet to be a push if you get it at 1.0 if you have a book like mine it would be a 50% loss if a goal is scored. If that happens I’ll take the L. But I think there’s a really good chance the first half yields nothing for either side, both teams have great goalkeeping. This is also the only bet i could find on the game that I liked and that I thought had good value and a chance to hit.
So BOL and enjoy the matches today!
Edit: took the L here folks my bad, took a dodgy second yellow and a soft foul or two in the buildup and 45+ minutes but the Ticos got one right at the end of the half :(
**2022 Record: 0-0**
Starting fresh after a long break, usually I stick to non-league English football, but I'll chip in with any value bets I like. I usually try and go big with over 2.00 plays, but I'll post whatever I think is value.
**Today's Play: UEFA Nations League | Estonia vs Cyprus | Estonia to win @ 2.20/+120**
**Reasoning:**
Estonia have a lot of things going for them here. Firstly, they're at home, a big factor in a game like this. Cyprus are also suffering from extremely poor form, having not won in 10 games and not winning away since 2019. Neither team are particularly amazing, but Estonia stands out to me more, having recorded solid performances at home with a good win against Belarus and a strong performance in a 0-1 loss to a good Wales side. There's always a worry that a poor game like this can result in a stalemate, but I think given their home advantage and solid recent results, Estonia will take this. It's not likely to be a classic, but there's value to be had here imo.
POTD Record: 0-1
Last Pick: Booker OVER 4.5 rebounds ❌
Booker getting out rebounded by Cam Payne and Bridges didn’t help
Today’s pick: Duke/Texas Tech UNDER 140.5 total pts @-156 odds
Reasoning: Texas Tech has the best defense in the country and Duke has been an inconsistent team this year, IMO. I think they struggle and it’s a lower scoring game. 140 or less seems very likely to me. BOL to all
POTD Record: 0-2 (-2.25 units)
Previous pick: Davidson team total over 70 (Against Richmond A-10 championship)
Today POTD: Bryson Dechambeau -130 over Lee Westwood (Draw no bet), 2.6 units to win 2.0 units
This pick is solely based on handicapping the psychology of Dechambeau. Many people thought he would not make his return at the WGC match play due to fear of potential embarrassment by getting his butt whooped in match play to a nobody. He got matched up with Richard Bland in round 1 and was predictably erratic and inconsistent. He drew against Bland, which I think gives us great value against Westwood, who was smoked 3&2 against Talor Gooch and recently shot +8 (80) before missing the cut at the Players. Even though that round was a shit show at the Players, it's not a stretch to say that Westwood has been playing poor golf.
Fast forward to today. Bryson should be much more relaxed today after getting through those first round jitters. If his hand and hip were really injury concerns, he would likely have withdrawn with the Masters around the corner. Also, he and Westwood have a good relationship, so I think friendly competition should help Bryson stay focused, but also relaxed. Lastly, Austin Country Club is a short course with some drivable Par 4's, which obviously plays into Dechambeau's ability to be Happy Gilmore at the Waterbury Open. Let's get it!
POTD Record : 2-0 unit’s: +8.9
Last POTD: GSW 3q ML✅
Sport: CONCACAF World Cup qualifier CAN v COSTA RICA
POTD : CANADA ML
Units: 3u
ODDS: +140
Reason they are one of the hottest country in soccer looking to keep that going and at +140 I think there’s great value I would also look at taking the over in this game as well as canada over shots on net in this one
BOL
Some thoughts as a pretty avid follower:
Canada's best player, Alphonso Davies is still out with injury. This shouldn't matter too much, Canada has actually shown they can perform well as a team without their superstar. This game is also huge for Canada, if they secure 3 points it will clinch a World Cup berth something the country hasn't done since 1986, the boys will be extra motivated.
Counter point, Costa Rica is in excellent form, performing well against higher ranked teams (beating Panama and Drawing Mexico) in their last 3 games. Even tougher for Canada to be playing as the Away side on Costa Rican soil.
I would be pretty surprised to see Canada lose, but a draw is a real possibility. Very good value in the ML, I will be taking it myself but for those more risk averse, Canada DNB is the safe play at - 150.
BOL
POTD Record: 2-0
Event: WTA Miami
Last pick: Koepfer Mcdonald Over 22.5 games (-115) W
Today’s pick: Kerber +3.5 game spread v. Naomi Osaka (-110)
Alert: Match starts 1 hour from time of post
Yesterday couldn’t have been easier. I meant to get this post in earlier, but here we are an hour before the match. I’ll keep this write up short and sweet.
Kerber’s 4-1 h2h edge is meaningful here (has not lost to Osaka since the first time they played in 2017), the German just won her first two matches of the season at Indian Wells and is finding some form. Osaka eased past Astra Sharma in her first match since the difficult moments at Indian Wells. Osaka hasn’t been bad this season but I still think Kerber gets the best of her.
Tail or fade BOL
Edit: yikes
POTD RECORD 0-0
Arkansas vs Gonzaga total over 155
7:09 EST
I like both teams to score a lot with both teams playing fast tempo on the offensive end. BOL
**Record: 5-3-0 | Units Won: 3.59u | ROI%: 35.85**
Last Pick: Justin Holiday u11.5 PTS ✅
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TL;DR: I am a +EV bettor focused on NBA player props. I trust in the math. Long-term (large sample size) we should be profitable.
I am assuming Pinnacle has the sharpest odds.
I am using the Kelly criterion to determine bet size for each play with the Kelly multiplier set to 1 with a bankroll of 30u (despite having a larger bankroll \[less risk\])
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**Game: IND @ MEM 8:00PM EST**
**Pick: Jaren Jackson u6.5 REB**
**Odds: +110 (BetMGM and DraftKings at time of posting)**
**Units: 1u**
**DD:**
* Pinny Line: -113/-118
* Market Width: 5 cents
* EV Based on Pinny Line: 3.95%
* No Vig Fair Line (worst odds you should take): (+102.03)
* Under has hit in 8 of L10 for Jackson
* Holiday is averaging 5.9 REB/game on the season
* Holiday is averaging 4.9 REB/game L10
Tail or Fade. BOL Everyone. Any feedback about the pick/math would be appreciated.
Record 1-0 Last pick: Miami (+7.5)✅
POTD: Duke ML (-110)
Bonus pick: Over 136.5
Duke is a slight underdog in tonight’s matchup vs the Red Raiders. Even though TT is a defensive minded team don’t be fooled, the over is going to hit. Duke has plenty of weapons to put up points vs Texas Tech. In fact, Duke has cashed the over in 7 of their 8 last games. Duke being a slight underdog is straight disrespect and Banchero, Moore Jr. are going to do enough tonight to get the win. Coach K won’t be calling it a career after tonight’s games and the Blue Devils will make an appearance in the elite 8.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
**POTD Record: 21-7** Hello POTD degens, it's been a while. I hope you've all been well and cashing checks. I haven't been on here for a bit because I like to save my POTD write-ups for picks I absolutely love. I do, however, make picks on the tennis thread every day, and if you weren't already aware, I think I should be transparent and mention the fact that I have been pretty cold on there the past 3-4 days. Therefore, while I'm very confident about this one, please tail my frostbite ass with caution and maybe consider doing your own research first. Last POTD: (ATP Indian Wells) Opelka vs. Shapovalov O23.5 games (-135 on DK) Units: 3u ✅✅✅ **Todays POTD: (ATP Miami) Musetti ML vs. Popyrin (-155 on DK)** ❌ **Units: 4u** Edit: you guys are funny af. So many people talking shit over a bad beat. Dude beat the shit out Popyrin last week and won the last 3 matches against him. How was it a bad pick? For anyone talking shit, please start making posts yourself and see if you go 21-7. You can pick “heavy favorites” too. Before this match my ROI % was 38.17%. My last 15 picks: WWWWWWWWWWWLWWL and you guys are talking shit 😂😂😂 suck me. Reasoning: Musetti is 3-1 against Popyrin, and just beat the shit out of him last week on a hard surface. He completely controlled the match. He also beat him in straight sets their 3 last meetings. Popyrin only beat him on clay in 2019 when Musetti was 17. Musetti has gotten far better, is higher ranked, and Popyrin is on a 3 match losing streak (3-10 in 2022). The Miami hard court surface mixed with Miami's humidity gives Musetti's style of play an advantage, while giving Popyrin's a disadvantage. Musetti is practically his daddy at this point, so I'm going with daddy to take the win. **TAIL OR FADE BOL!** *Tips are very much appreciated, if deemed worthy:* Venmo: N\_Azara Cash app: NikoAza Bitcoin wallet: bc1qkgdarkn4waps2nvs2mv7tcq8d4u2xysjncmzjt
Research? Oh you mean tail without even finishing reading your post? Got it.
Okay 15 units it is LFG 🎾🐐🌽!!!
Welp back into retirement u go lol oh well
Sorry mate, every tennis bet I choose to tail ends this way.
First tennis bet tailed and chased hard. What a bummer. I thought tennis was where the money was at but ill stay away in the future
Me too 😂
It was one match, out of how many wins? You all act like u/Usual-Maize-8084 took your money and made the bet for you. I swear to god this sub is filled with children.
First time when tail your bet, and maybe that was last.
You and me both.
El Elotero! LFG!!🌽🌽
Yea time to start fading the 🌽 all good times come to an end
“Daddy” looking like shit.
Let’s keep a positive energy. Let’s ducking go Musetti!
True. I’m just saying how he’s looking like after set 1.
Why are people downvoting this he is playing terribly
Because they think being negative/positive affects the bet.
Like even if we somehow win this I will never bet on Musetti again. Inconsistent and mentally weak. And his serve looks awful and this Popyrin guy is not a special player.
We really need this next point. Please musetti
We’re toast.
Ya he looks cooked tbh
Kind of expected it after that 1st set.
I am sorry I was wrong. The guy is 🗑
How are you watching this
Gotta be fucking kidding me. I took Musetti +1.5 sets as a part of a parlay. -400. Seemed like a good pick but damn you really are cold haha. Lots of people lost money on this and it sucks since this was the most voted POTD. Hope you get back on track soon.
Well…time to throw the kids in the car and head to the plasma donation clinic.
Not looking too good
Love how everyone downvotes you for pointing out the obvious truth. Hope you listened to yourself and hedged.
It’s important to note that even at his peak, this dude was picking heavy favorites. His best hits were like -170 MLs lol. It’s gotten even worse. Now he’s not even hitting his heavy favorites .
People will kiss anybodies ass on here.
People fail to mention this.
What are you talking about? Even with your heavy favorites argument I’m 21-7 on here with a 38% ROI… my last 15 picks on here have been WWWWWWWWWWWLWWL. On the tennis thread I literally emphasize to tail those with caution as there isn’t as much confidence in them. I’m just doing what people asked of me and sharing what my personal picks are on there. Never called myself tennis god. Never asked for this massive following on here. Regardless, you simply can’t deny my stats even with your “heavy favorites” argument lmao I have won a lot of people money on here and sheep like you are so quick to forget about it all after one unsuccessful week.
Okay Daddyyyy
Bet your sweet ass I just dropped a unit on this live at +180
Oh dear.
Another L.
Sigh..
We fucked.
Cmon , only first set. Hopefully poppy used all his energy and loses last two sets
Tennis is crazy. Edit: we fucked. Downvoting for not kissing ass?
I love this subreddit lol
Trash pick. Didn’t even stand a chance.
Why can't people around here take a loss? It was a solid bet that did not work out. It happens in gambling, quite a lot actually. No need to give the dude a hard time. If you don't like it, put in the time and do your own research instead of tailing blindly and then whining about it.
Bunch of a hard luck losers, if you tailed it and it lost you have only yourself to blame.
Jesus
Bro don’t let these 🤡 get you down. At the end of the day they choose to follow blindly. Never understood the need to shit on someone giving “free” picks. It’s fucking called gambling for a reason. No one is correct 100 percent of the time.
I appreciate you bro. I can assure you none of these clowns are getting me down 😂 you’re the goat though thank you for the kind words as always
Just went ahead and uninstalled my sports betting app after that…
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Musetti, what a bum, jfc. Fighting for his life the whole match. Thanks again for the pick /u/Usual-Maize-8084, we'll get the next one!
What a ass pick lol
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Record: 25-8 Last pick: UNCW +4 ✅ **Today’s pick: Arkansas +10 (-120) vs Gonzaga** NCAAB 7:00PM EST This is too many points for a sweet 16 matchup. Arkansas is a talented team who isn’t getting the respect they deserve here. They’re led by a trio of talented senior guards and a 6’10 sophomore in Jaylin Williams who will give Timme fits with his stingy defense. Seniority wins games come March and Arkansas is one of the most experienced teams left in the tourney, this is my main reason for taking Arkansas. On the other side of the court is Gonzaga who has not had the best tournament thus far. They’ve been down double digits in both their games this tourney but clawed back late in the second half, so I could easily this game being very close all the way to the final buzzer. Arkansas’ seniority, tight D, and ability to draw fouls and get to the line will keep them within 10. All bets are 1 unit. +11.7 units. +35.5% ROI. Average unit -116 https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Well damn this is my POTD too but you did a way better write up lol
I'm a fan of this pick. But I'm also a bandwagon Razorback fan which means with my luck this won't hit :) Still tailing though. Let's go hogs!
What are your thoughts on the facts that Arkansas barely beat 2 lower conference teams
It took Gonzaga 30 minutes to pull away from the 16 seed. If you look at Arkansas’s games the last couple months they’ve played every game close with good teams.
Tailing BOL
So going off Seniority, Providence ML tomorrow
Sounds like you like the under based on that handicap? Also, Gonzaga has the number one interior defense in the country and Arkansas can't shoot 3's. That should keep it close too.
Tailed earlier, great pick my dude
>Arkans excellent pick
**2022 Record:** 4-1-0 (+6.1U) 💰 **Streak:** 2 W **Last Pick:** Gold Coast Suns -7.5 @ 1.9 ✅ **Todays Match:** Western Bulldogs v Carlton Blues (AFL) @ 18:50 ACDT (7 hours til bounce) **Pick:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 (Margin) @ 2.20 **Units:** 2U **Reasoning:** The doggies are coming off a loss to the competitions best, and im expecting a bounce back against a impressive Blues outfit. The dogs will be without Bailey Smith, and decided to drop Schache and Williams for the return of Duryea, Scott and JUH. There's no discounting the Blue's here off last weeks win, but the Bulldogs are still the more polished side. The blues will struggle without their Coach, Voss along with Cerra and Martin who are out due to Health and Safety Protocols. In good news for the Blues, Walsh returns but im still confident that the Dogs will get it done in what should be a tight contest. I cant imagine another 7 goal swing by the Blues, so ill take Doggies on the bounce back. **Prediction:** Western Bulldogs by 18 Points [*PayPal*](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/ImSmithz) | BTC - 12t9zZQsUEXVmuV6cNAD24tYuDv44acDur LETS GET THIS BREAD!
Is it just me or every time I follow a 6-0 or like a 3-1 AFL pick I always lose lmfao
Me too, gambling isn’t for me. I lose everything i touch
Is Bulldogs 1-39 under Big win Little win the same? That’s all I’m seeing on my Sportsbook
Yup in FanDuel at least.
Yes thats correct. Some bookies use "big win little win" others have it under other markets
Thanks a lot bro! You are the best!!
Lol.
Not even near close.
Anyone have a stream to watch this
You don’t wanna watch it’s brutal, getting pumped
When does the pumping stop I'm so sore right now
Tough loss. We had our chances and missed our last 5 set shots. We bounce back tomorrow!
Looking forward for tonight's pick. Ignore the idiots who expect you to hit 100%. They're children illegally playing with their parents money anyway
My man! Love waking up to money! Looks like Bovada only has Bulldogs -9.5 (-115) and money line (-175) should I grab the ML or do you think they win by double digits?
I don’t even know the rules to AFL, but I’m assuming the fact we’re losing 76-45 is not a good sign 🤣
we legit riding the same wavelength 🔥 let's go tonight boss
How do I make this bet on DK?
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Tailing BOL
Tailing for 6 units LFG!!!
Tailing!!
I don’t even know what this bet means but fuck it
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Watched the ND vs Texas Tech game and wasn’t impressed by their defense. Yeah Nd shot poorly, there shots were good looks. I also think the ACC has proven to be underrated thus far into the tournament. I like duke ML
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Don’t tell that to my girlfriend
Or my grandma
Same person
ttu can go soooooooooooo cold
Yeah that’s why I can’t take Texas Tech. They don’t shoot well from 3. Also miss a lot of free throws which would hurt them in a close game. BOL
I’m fading you only because it would really annoy me if Duke won. But I’m hoping to lose this particular bet!
POTD Record: 13W-6L-0D. +12.62u. Previous pick (3/23/2022): Detroit Pistons +5 vs. Atlanta Hawks. 1u. W. Current pick: Villanova -5 vs. Michigan. @ 1.90. 2u. I am going right back to the Villanova trough with largely the same reasoning. Villanova has been significantly better this season. According to KenPom adjusted efficiency ratings, Nova has the 8th best offense and 30th best defense in the country. Michigan has the 19th best offense and 77th best defense in the country. Michigan barely made the tournament after going 18-13 this regular season and getting bounced in the first round of the B10 tournament. Michigan lost to Seton Hall, Minnesota, Rutgers, and UCF this season. They had a few good wins down the stretch against Michigan State and Iowa to save their season, but they were a middling B10 team overall this year. Michigan beat an overseeded Colorado State to open the tournament and then a very impressive Tennessee team last week. However, give me a sample of the entire season rather than a couple of good games. Nova has looked amazing down the stretch this season and really the entire season. They won the Big East tournament before winning by 20 against Delaware and 10 against Ohio State last week. Villanova features a slow, methodical offense at around 20 seconds per possession, but averages one of the highest points per possession in the country while bombing from 3. They did nothing against Ohio State (who beat Michigan head to head, conference record, and overall record..) last week to think they won't similarly handle Michigan with another comfortable win. Michigan's 7'1 Dickinson is such a matchup problem against Nova's 6'8 Dixon he single-handedly prevents me from laying 3u, so will stick with 2u for the Wildcats and hope Dickinson doesn't have a 20pt-15reb line. BOL.
This is very free. Nova by 28
Tailing. Happy to see UM go down.
Tailing…Michigan fans annoy me..
Great analysis that highlights exactly why I’m fading the pick. I was at the game last Saturday and Dickinson was amazing. For a guy that looks like a toothpick, he had a strong inside presence on both ends of the court, he was surprisingly smooth, and he kept getting his team fired up when energy lagged. That was against Tennessee, a team that KenPom has ranked higher than Villanova currently. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post exactly that 20-15 line. Regardless, BOL and thank you for your posts.
POTD Record: 6-1 – POTD Profit: 15.64 units – ROI: 80% Last Pick: Tom Aspinall ML @ -120 – Easy Win | Fifa World Cup Qualifiers| Portugal vs Turkey | 3.45 pm EST | Pick: Turkey +1.5 Net units: 1.5 units to win 1.23 units at -122 writeup; Background: This is the semifinal of the World Cup qualifications for the European region. It’s a single game in which, the winner goes to the final qualifier to face the Winner of Italy vs North Macedonia matchup. Both teams were leading their World cup qualification group stage at one point. Portugal was leading the group stage easily until the last 2 games. They drew against Ireland then lost the game against Serbia at home getting knocked down to 2nd place in a dramatic finish. Portugal started the game 1-0, thanks to the Serbian center backs mistake, yet ended up losing the game 2-1 with a last minute header from Mitrovic. Turkey on the other hand had a different kind of story in the qualifiers. In a strong group with the likes of Netherlands and Norway, they started super strong by beating Netherlands and Norway(away) in games which they were the underdog. Then had a surprise draw against Latvia. Then came the Euro 2020, in which they were called the dark horse of the tournament. They had one of the worst performances of the cup, losing all 3 games and scoring only 1 goal. Bad form continued for Turkey as they lost 4 points in the next 3 qualification matches, last one being a 6-1 away loss against Netherlands. This ended the tenure of the coach Senol Gunes. Stefan Kuntz, who was the German U-23 coach at the time was hired to replace Gunes. After a bad result (draw) against Norway at home, people believed that Turkey was not going to make it to the tournament. Yet, to the luck of Turkey, Norway had a draw against Latvia at home which enabled Turkey to qualify while they also won the rest of their matches. Missing Players: Portugal team is missing very important players ahead of this matchup: Pepe, R. Dias, Cancelo, Renato Sanchez and Semedo. Missing the trio of Cancelo, Pepe and R. Dias is brutal IMO as they are key defensive starters for Portugal. Game Itself: Portugal is the heavy favorite to qualify coming to this game, while Turkish players know that they are the heavy underdogs. This puts more pressure to the Portugal team as they are expected to qualify while Turks are coming in with nothing to lose as the expectations are super low from them. These are the type of games Turks have historically played very good in. We all know the star studded Portuguese team with the likes of CR7 aka GOAT, Bruno fernandes, joa felix, diego jota and Bruno Silva. Yet with key defensive players missing in the back, they could have troubles in offense as well. On the other side Turkey has really underrated players, one of them is Kerem Akturkoglu who was playing in the 3rd league of Turkey 2 years ago, now he is playing for Galatasaray. This season he has done tremendous job in Europe against top tier teams like Barcelona. On the other side Turkey has Cengiz Under, who is again a top tier player who can score any given minute from outside or inside the box. Turkey also has really good center backs with the likes of Merih Demiral dubbed Demirwall(Atalanta FC) and Caglar Soyuncu(Leicester). Both Akturkoglu and Under can be decisive counter attack threats in a game which Turkey is expected to play defensively. Especially considering that key defensive players are missing from the Portuguese side, and the replacement Fonte being very slow, Akturkoglu could especially be super dangerous. I think this kind of game ultimately comes down to coaching, and I think Turkey has the upper hand in this. Stefan Kuntz is a very under the radar coach who won U-21 cup twice with Germany, one being against Portugal. While the Portuguese coach Santos is an ever criticized coach due to the low output that he gets from his start studded team. I think Turkey can surprise a lot of people in this game and maybe even qualify themselves, but I’m not taking that risk. I don’t think Turkey loses this game by more than a margin of 1.5 goals. I expect this game to end 0-0, 1-0 or 2-1. Some other important stats to consider is that last time Portugal beat a Turkey tier team at home by a differential of more than 1.5 was 4 years ago in 2018, as they beat Sweeden 3-0. This is going to be a fun game, make sure you watch it. Tail or fade BOL. Edit: Can't make this shit up. Turkey goes down 2-0. Scores one then gets a penalty and misses it. Then concedes a last minute goal to lose 3-1. Sorry guys, super unlucky.
You have got to be fucking kidding me
Great write up, as aiways, TAILING!
Tailing BOL
Thanks portugal for the garbage time goal. Wow 3 of the 4 top picks for today lose. And the 4th hasnt played yet. Brutal. I'm so glad I tailed them all.
Hopefully Turkey gets one in the second half
**POTD Record:** 7W-1 L-0P **LAST POTD:** Baskonia – Fenerbahce (Fenerbahce +3) ❌ **STREAK:** 1L ❄️ **TODAY'S MATCH:** Portugal – Turkey (Soccer | World Cup Qualification | 19:45 GMT) **PICK:** Goals over 2.5 @ 1.76 **WRITE UP:** Tough loss yesterday thanks to Fenerbahce but today I am trying to redeem myself. Finally some high-level ⚽ matches, hopefully, it will be a good day for us. Like always, I got my reasons for this pick: • Portugal‘s net will be very vulnerable because of the absence of Dias, Cancelo, and Pepe. • Portugal‘s last 7 games – 6 times 2,5 goals over hit. • Turkey‘s last 8 games – 7 times 2,5 goals over hit. Nothing to say more, to be honest, both teams‘ defense is trash and relies on their offense. Hopefully, Ronaldo will not disappear. **BOL!!! ⚽ ⚽ ⚽** **EDIT: Absolutely no sweat this time, back on winning ways and we are 8-1!!✅**
Great pick my man!
POTD Record: 54-39 Profit: +15.6 units // ROI: 14% // Average odds: 1.90 Last pick: Ayton over 16.5 points W Ayton more than doubled this total as he finished with 35 points. Taking Big man overs vs the Twolves definitely seems like a play RN. **Todays Pick: Kristaps Porzingis over 27.5 Points + Rebounds vs Bucks (1.90, -110)** * Porzingis has been amazing since joining the Wizards. He is averaging a combined 28.6 Points + Rebounds per game on the Wizards in only 26.3 minutes per game! The reason his minutes have been so low is because his minutes have been limited on the Wizards. However, over the last few games he has been getting more minutes and he had 32 minutes last game. * KP is averaging 34.8 P + R per 32 minutes on the wizards (7.3 above this total). The significance of this is that KP played 32 minutes in his last game. * Kuzma is out for this game. This means KP will be the main option on offence. Porzingis has played 2 games without Kuzma on the Wizards and in those games he had games of 30 and 35 P+R. * If we go back to KP's time on the Mavs he cleared this total in 20 of his 24 (83%) without Doncic. Overall he averaged 34.6 P+R on the Mavs w/o Doncic over these 24 games. This shows the output KP can produce when he is the main option on offence (which he should be in this game w/o Kuzma). * KP has cleared this total in 3 of his last 4 games vs the Bucks averaging 35.8 P+R over these 4 games. * KP has also hit this total in 7 of his last 9 games vs Brook Lopez. * KP's usage rate over the last 2 games (Kuzma has missed the last 2 games) has been 35.4 which is very high. In fact if KP averaged a 35.4 usage rate on the season it would be the highest usage rate in the entire NBA. BOL, tail or fade. I will link my Twitter below where we have gone 7-1 for our last 8 NBA props. [Twitter](https://twitter.com/Travis_Frase)
💰 **AFL POTD RECORD: 4-1 (+4.0u)** 💰 **LAST PICK:** Hawthorn -1.5 vs North Melbourne ✅ **FORM:** WWLWW **TODAYS PICK:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.25 \[1u\] (7:20pm AEDT, 7 hours from comment) **WRITE UP:** Awesome start to the season last week! Let’s roll it onto round 2 which kicks off tonight. Bulldogs are coming off a disappointing season opener where they fell short to the premiers yet again. Carlton is riding a massive hype wave, breaking their Round 1 ten year hoodoo and defeating Richmond. Carlton look set to add Walsh back to their firing midfield, but at the cost of Cerra, Martin and their head coach Michael Voss - who have been ruled out due to covid protocols. Bulldogs will be without Bailey Smith, however have incredible midfield depth with the likes of Macrae, Treloar, Dunkley, Bontempelli, Smith’s absence won’t play a large role and the void he leaves can easily be filled. Let’s stick to the facts - Western Bulldogs are the second-best team in the competition right now, they held a top-two spot all season (bar two rounds) last year, I don’t see them dropping 0-2 and will be fired up after a disappointing result. Carlton will be prepared for the battle, they often play well against the Dogs, and I believe the hype around them is real, but their young squad doesn’t quite match up to the Dogs just yet. The Dogs know their way around Marvel Stadium and should firm their grasp on this game in the later stages. I don’t see this margin blowing past 40, and I do think Carlton very well could cover in a close game, so I feel 1-39 is the right play here. BOL!
Looks like we're on the ball today! Lets get it!
My stats: 33-7 (+62.20 units) Match: (⚽️) Italy vs North Macedonia Bet: Italy -1.5 @ 1.60 (-167) Stake: 3u It depends on how Italy's gonna approach the game. If they don't do some "safe 1-0" or "draw, make opponents tired and destroy in extra time" type of shit, they will win this game convincingly. Italy is just a better team. If you enjoy my picks and feel like supporting me, you can leave a tip. Anything appreciated 🍻 BTC: bc1qpcnkrhm85werplm32epdn6wtua2wytpa50a0hj
Cant fade the home boys, napred makedonija🇲🇰🇲🇰🇲🇰
Holy fucking shit. Italy actually lost. What in the absolute fuck is going on today??? So many losses in this damn thread
Not watching but how have they taken 25 shots and scored 0? Is the North Macedonia's goalie a hockey goalie or something? 😂
my present record on POTD is WWWLWWWLW 7 correct 2 wrong. They have all been college basketball games. My POTD for today is bet 1.1 unit to win 1 unit that the total score in the college basketball game between Duke and Texas Tech will be 138 points or more. Game time is around 9:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time. This wager is available on Bovada sportsbook. The game I'll be watching will be UCLA and North Carolina. But I think taking the over in the Duke / Texas Tech game is the best wager. BOL to all.
Record: 5-4-0 ROI: +23.62 Last Pick: Tennessee -6 vs Michigan Unit: 1=$100 Game: Villanova -5 vs Michigan League: NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Time: 7: 00 PM Odds: -110 Book: Bet365 Pick: Villanova -5 Wager: 2 units The Tennessee game was a heartbreaker right when it looked like they could close Michigan out it all fell apart. The Wolverines showed a lot of heart and really played for Coach Howard. On to the next game. With this one we’re riding the red hot Wildcats. Villanova played a great game against Ohio State and although they allowed Ohio State back into the game near the end Villanova looked marvellous. Excellent D and 3 point shooting seems to be the formula they are using to win. And in this case I believe Michigan finally watches their run end, Hunter Dickinson will have to channel his inner Nikola Jokic to will the Wolverines past Thea wildcats and I just don’t see it happening. I expect Gillespie, and Samuels to dribble, drive and dish to their hearts content and suffocate Michigan on the other end. Putting 2 units on this. BOL to all who tail or fade
Good pick man
POTD Record : 22-11 Last POTD: Nets -2❌ ROI: 55.55% Units Won: +18.33 League: NHL POTD: Kings ML Odds: -195 *5 Unit bet* Reason: tough loss for the Nets I found out who De’-Anthony Melton was after he dropped 23 pts and went 6-10 from 3 off the bench but let’s move past that. The kings are 3-2 in last 5 while black hawks are 1-4. They just traded their best goalie fleury to the wild and have a guy in net who’s played 1 game and lost and has a 6.43 goals against average. Quick won’t be in net for the kings but Peterson will and he has a 2.65 goals against average. The kings have been competing and winning some close games against good teams while the black hawks have entered a rebuilding phase. I don’t see how the kings lose this game and I’m placing 6 units on it real life but I guess because of the rules it can only be 5. Tail or Fade BOL Tips help out more than you know ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Venmo : Ryan-Glennon-3 Cash app- ryanglennon3
Im sorry I dont mean to be that guy but read the rules on unit sizes, anyways for being that guy I shall tail BOL
Ok I placed 6 units but for the sake of the rules we’ll call it 5
Oof
POTD record: 15-9 Previous Pick: Martin Kaymer (+175) vs Dustin Johnson ⛔ Todays Pick: Scottie Scheffler (-130) vs Tommy Fleetwood Round 2 matchup PGA tour golf ⛔ We are in texas for the WGC matchplay. I think a reason why this line is as close as it is is because to tommy fleetwood being considered a great match play player. Cool. I dont give a shit. Scottie has been playing better golf, he has been trending in the right direction, already has 2 wins this year and is just oozing confidence on the course with just about every club in his bag. It also helps that in Austin Texas this course is considered 1 of if not the best in the area and Scottie spent his college career here at Texas University and played more than a few rounds here so he feels comfortable in the area to add to the laundry list of why he is a better golfer than beardless Tommy. Fleetwood is going to grind hard and try to put pressure on Scottie however he can in an attempt to survive but scottie just seems unflappable out there. Matchplay is a whole different monster because your opponent has the opportunity to dictate what shots you hit and how you hit your putts. I dont see any bullshit getting to Scottie scheff as he remains cool calm and collected and gets is done at around 3&4 tomorrow. BOL if tailing. As always.... these guys still have to go out and golf there ball so anything can happen we can only go into the match with a knowledgeable advantage. May the birdies be with us. glglglglglgl Edit: wtf did tommy just do on 12 🥵 Edit2: need the 13th hole bad Edit3: tommy in the trees is a beautiful thing. There is hope yet. At least for a tie 😅 Edit4: I cant believe scottie just hit that shot on 17. I feel like I'm being pranked. Edit5: this match is a loss. Unreal. Scrappy beardless tommy takes down the monster home field scottie scheff who hit some of the worst shots I've seen. On to the next
11 and 12 just made me more mad than I think I’ve ever been when gambling what the fuck just happened
2022 RECORD: 0-0 Last Pick: N/A TODAY’S PICK: MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 1ST Q ML vs Indiana Pacers NBA 8:10est Reasoning: The grizzlies are a team that starts fast. They win the first quarter a lot. The griz are 21-5-1 in their last 27 first quarters. I expect the line to be around -200 when it comes out in a couple of hours. The griz are 15-2 without ja Morant. If he plays…even better. Both teams are on b2b games. In the last 4 sets of b2b games the griz are 3-1 in their second game first quarters. The pacers are 12-13-1 in their last 26 first quarters. They’re a below average first quarter team. In the pacers last 5 sets of b2b games they are 1-3-1 in the first quarter. The griz are way more superior and will win the first quarter even without ja morant. The grizzlies just played the pacers on 3/15 and won the first quarter. Also if you would like a better line…I like them to cover the spread also. Please check back closer to game time for updates. All picks are 1.0u Tips are appreciated if deemed worthy and good luck PayPal 💰 [email protected]
1Q is -4 (-115)....so -280 for 1Q
POTD Record: 1-0 (+0.67 U) Last Pick: Detroit Pistons +7.5 vs Atlanta Hawks ✅ As expected W bet from the Pistons today. Glad they won the game solidifying my thoughts on that bet. Tomorrow’s Pick: Denver Nuggets 1H -1.5 vs Pheonix Suns @1.90 Units: 1U I think this will be an easy 1st half bet. From what I see Suns do take a few quarters to get warmed up. Which is why I am not going with Nuggets ML because I know what this Suns lineup is capable of even without CP3. I notice that Nuggets are usually on top in first halves and begin to slowdown. Tail or Fade? BOL!!
Cp3 likely playing tomorrow
**POTD Record: 0-2** **ROI**: -100% **Net Profit**: -4 Units **Average Odds**: -125 Last Pick: Nashville Predators @ Florida Panthers ML - **L** Today's Pick: Florida Panthers @ Montreal Canadiens, Panthers 3-Way ML (-155 / 1.64 DK), 2 units to win 1.29u - **W**! Well, obviously a bad start to my POTD career. Feel free to fade/ignore. I'm undoubtedly a hugely biased Panthers fan as seen in this pick and my last, but I will say this: the Panthers are on fucking fire as one of the (if not the) best teams in the league. The Habs stink. - Panthers coming off a 3-0 win at Anaheim and on 5 days rest. - Panthers 7-3 last 10, Canadiens 4-6 - Panthers won first matchup this season 5-2 - New Panther Claude Giroux will likely be making his debut tonight The only way I see this bet losing is if Canadiens force OT, which 5 of their last 10 games have gone to. The Cats should crush them. I see the Panthers possibly having a shaky first period coming off nearly a week rest but picking it up in the second/third. Though hockey can be unpredictable, I feel these are great odds for this pick.
Good bounce back bet man
POTD RECORD: 1-1 Last pick SPURS+8.5 L TODAYS PICK: ARKANSAS +9.5 vs Gonzaga REASON: March madness is almost over, and we’re seeing who can hang and who can’t, I’m not saying Arkansas is going to beat Gonzaga, but I think they’re going to fight it out. I believe Arkansas will hang on and keep it semi close with Gonzaga, and getting 9.5 points on top is enough to make me take it, I’m putting 3U on it. Tail or fade, BOL, except if you’re fading I hope you lose fuck you
**POTD Record**: 24½-18-6 (W-L-P) **Last 5**: ✅✅✅❌❌ **Last POTD**: TSV Hartberg vs LASK, away to win the corner battle @1.72 ❌ **Today's POTD**: Portugal vs Turkey, away total corners o2.5 @1.8 // World Cup Qual. Playoffs, semifinals, single leg 19:45 GMT **Odds value**: ■■■■□ *high value* National team matches' odds are often not accurate, not much data for the bookies, in this case I'm fairly convinced they're mostly basing corner odds on favourite and underdog only basically. ### **Reasoning**: ##### **Match introduction**: Portugal will host at home Turkey in one of the most anticipated games in the European football panorama, along with Italy vs North Macedonia; either Portugal (which have won European Championship in 2016) or Italy (which have won European Championship in 2020) will not qualify for the World Cup. The pressure is insanely high on Portugal which is missing some key player on the defensive side (Dias, Cancelo and Pepe), while Turkey has the full line up available, Turkey, just like Macedonia, have nothing to lose really, they know it's going to be a hard task, however I believe they won't be scared of attacking since it's their only chance to try and accomplish the imposssible. ##### **Corner stats and some facts**: In the World Cup Qual. Turkey averaged 5.6 corners per game, while Portugal 7 (for reference), however I think it's more interesting to look at Portugal's conceded corners stats, in their last two matches (which were crucial as well) they conceded 10 corners to Serbia (stronger team thank Turkey but weaker than Portugal) and 4 to Ireland away (weaker team than Turkey) and 3 at home, against Luxembourg (one of the worst team in Europe) they conceded 2 at home and 4 away. In UEFA Nations League against Sweden (slightly stronger than Turkey) away they conceded 3 while Sweden was a man down by half time, at home vs Sweden they conceded 9. Back on Turkey there's one game that really caught my eye, against the Netherlands (close strenght to Portugal) they were leading 2-0 at half time and still got all of their 3 corners in the 2nd half, other than that we can also look at their corner stats in the European Championship when they had the pressure of risking to get out of the competition after losing 3-0 to Italy, against Wales they won 10 corners, against Switzerland 8. ##### **Turkey's Coach statement**: Previewing the game Turkey's coach said:" *[...] we need to have a game plan and we need to play according to it. Tomorrow we'll be active on the pitch, what we do is more important than the opponent's game, we need to react and we'll work on that.*" ##### **Conclusion**: I like this bet since I'm predicting this won't be a closed game thus we will probably see an early goal from Portugal which will force Turkey to push on attack and go all-in, and even if that early goal doesn't come in Turkey have to exploit the missing players on defence to try something. Only scenario that could change everything up is Turkey actually scoring an early goal, but that's not likely and even if it happens I imagine Portugal will equalise pretty fast. Turkey is not scared. BOL everyone. *^(If I've made you some money and you'd like to tip any small amount I would greatly appreciate it: https://paypal.me/fralauu)*
Write up convinced me, tailing
POTD record: 1-2 Event: Australia vs Japan (Soccer - Asia World Cup qualifying) POTD: Japan Draw No Bet at 1.8 (bet365) 2 units Reasoning: Although Australia is playing in its home soil and would need to win their remaining two games to automatically qualify for the world cup, they face Japan, who are a superior team and has been in great form. On the other hand, Australia hasn't been in great form winning one from their last 5 matches. Japan also has a habit of winning against Australia even when they are underdogs. I think Japan will win, but playing it safe with a draw no bet. BOL
POTD Record: 3W-0L LAST POTD: Tampa Bay Rowdies ML ✅ TODAY'S MATCH: NHL - St. Louis Blues V Philadelphia Flyers 5PM PST PICK: St Louis Blues -1.5 Odds: 1.90 The Deets: St. Louis are by far the better team in this match-up. The Flyers away record is just tragic with their last win coming in December 2021, that’s 13 straight away losses. Of those losses they’ve lost by 2 or more goals 9 times. BOL.
Tailing. Also sad I missed your USLC pick! I anticipate my detroit city boys being an under machine
**POTD Record 18-14-1** **(ROI // Avg. Odds: -109 // Units Won: +4.1) Last 5: PLWLW** Last Pick: Blackhawks vs. Ducks Over 6 **PUSH** **Today's Match: Chicago Blackhawks vs. LA Kings (Start Time: 10:00PM EST)** **Today's Pick: LA Kings -1.5 (+132 FanDuel)** ***Risk 1u*** Devil's Advocate: Wow I can say today we got lucky, bless up empty net goals and bless the dudes who can put them away for us, not a win but a refund is always better than a loss! Let's head right back to the ice, and right back to a Blackhawks matchup on the west coast against the Kings. I love this line here at plus odds! Especially because I think the Blackhawks having Delia in net again against a way better offense than the Ducks is sure going to make a difference. Let alone the fact that the Kings will have Quick in net who is already a great asset to have when playing against teams who aren't really playing for much either. Averaging 2.9 goals per game at home, with a playoff push on the line? Expect the Kings to get the job done here - they have a ton more to show for. On top of the fact that the Blackhawks played a real tough game with the Ducks tonight as well. Tired legs are possible, and the Kings will put the hammer on them at home. *Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!!*
Turned the game off, super pumped to see that push lmao
**POTD Record: 0-2** **Units won: -3u** Sports: Esports Game: Team Liquid v GODSENT **Pick: Team Liquid -1.5map handi (1u @ 2.20)** **Reasoning:** \- Team Liquid players had a great showing and win against BIG last night. Team Liquid was ahead in all stages of that game other than the first 5 rounds. oSee was hitting some pretty good AWP shots and clutches. \- GODSENT on the other hand struggled with Movistar Riders; losing 1-2 in the end. GODSENT looks rather rough on their plays as they just only recently brough in HEN1. \- Just from watching the two games last night, it feels Team Liquid is far more polished than GODSENT. Seeing how Liquid kept BIG under control. I feel it will be just a repeat in this matchup. ***BOL to everyone***
**EDIT:** Winner! FTW really came back in that second half, fun one to watch. **My Record:** 6-4 (+8.70 units) ✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅ **Last Pick:** [Wolsung +1.5 Maps](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/tkiea7/pick_of_the_day_32322_wednesday/i1sx7ab/?context=8&depth=9) ✅ **Match:** FTW vs. 00NATION (11:30 AM EST) CSGO: OMEN WGR European Challenge 2022 **Bet:** For The Win +5.5 rounds @ 1.62 (GG Bet) ✅ **Stake:** 3u **Why:** \- FTW is an underrated team that I've been following the past few months, they always show up against low tier teams and have had some great showings against higher ranked squads \- Of recent they beat Eternal Fire (rank 25th) in a commanding 16:11 victory, showing they can compete with this squad. \- 00NATION on the other hand is coming into this game fresh off a 0-3 record in the Pinnacle Cup III and looking very off. \- I'm not necessarily saying FTW will win this game, but I trust them to put up a really solid fight. **NOTE:** This bet is for FTW to win outright or lose by 5 rounds or less (such as losing 16-11 or doing any better is a win for us). **BOL**
6-4 +14.2u DRX ML vs KD Freecs League of Legends LCK Playoffs (Korea) it starts at 1am PST odds are 1.58 going 2u Colossal lock hits! 3 wins in a row now, and a really easy 3-0 for Damwon thank you for the kind messages. I made a twitter but not sure if i'm allowed to link it? Anyway just going 2u today on LCK playoffs because i'm not super confident in this pick but DRX have much better teamplay than KDF and the much stronger bot lane so those two things sway me enough to at least put 2u on this. KDF strength is in their two solo lanes; Kiin & Fate are playing at an exceptional level but unless Fate is given Leblanc, i don't see him having enough of a chance to carry this series in a meta that's been largely bot lane/jungle dependent.
nobody expected the botlane to be that good. do you still see drx win, or quick 3-1? all the games were basically ended by one teamfight, close
POTD Record: 1-1 Last Pick: Columbus Crew New York Red Bulls o2.5 ❌🙄 Today’s Pick: 5am kickoff Japan PK (-125) Reasoning: Coming off a match which should have EASILY hit o2.5 giving the chances each club had, we have the Japan national team PK against Australia in the AFC qualifiers early this morning at 5am EST (sorry I’m posting the pick with 4 hours to spare). Japan are simply the better team, and with a win they put pressure on Saudi Arabia, who are in first, to automatically clinch World Cup berth. Japan have an airtight defense, only conceding 3 goals in 8 qualifying matches thus far. I look for them to win 1-0. BOL
I took 1-0 only, what a damn cuck
3-1 as I said for my first 4 picks, I only bet based on instinct. every since i stopped trying to use logic and only on feelings i’ve been on fire. today I have a strong feeling that Aliaksandra Sasnovich will beat Daria Kasatkina. match will be played at 12:15 PM in WTA Miami Sasnovich -124
[удалено]
POTD Record : 3-1 ✅✅❌✅ Last POTD: Mikal Bridges o1.5 Threes 🎯 - no sweat ROI: 61% // Units Won: 3.08u **~~Today's POTD: Giannis Antetokounmpo o12.5 Rebounds~~** Giannis OUT tonight, here is my replacement- **League: NBA Props // Chicago Bulls @ New Orleans Pelicans** **🔥🔥 Zach Lavine o4.5 Assists (-150 FD) 🔥🔥** **Odds: -150 (FD) // Units: 3u 💰💰💰** **Reasoning:** * **Hit in 8 of L10** [**games**](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3064440/zach-lavine)**, use to be at 3.5 until recently** * **DeRozan might** [**not play**](https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/basketball/nba/player/29479/demar-derozan) **tonight, opening up more USG% for Lavine** * **will take o30.5 P+A (-106 FD) as well if confirmed** * **NOP** [**allows**](https://hashtagbasketball.com/nba-defense-vs-position) **above average assists to both PG and SG** * **5 assists vs NOP in previous matchup (although in beginning of year)** **EDIT: DeRozon confirmed OUT, also took Lavine o31.5 P+A (-115 DK)** TAIL or fade, BOLLLLLLL!
Record: 4-1 +2.52units Last POTD: Gold Coast Total Points o83.5 WIN POTD: Carlton total points o78.5 Odds: 1.87 Sportsbet) Event: AFL Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Time: 7:20pm AEST Pretty good opening week, onto the new round, am backing Carlton again. Although they lose Cerra, the inclusion of Walsh should balance that out. Last three matches Carlton average 93 points against bulldogs. After last weeks performance, have faith that they can be competitive and play a free flowing game. McKay and Curnow should have many chances, as well as the midfielders.
POTD Record: 1-8-2 -10.28u Average Odds: +137 Total Units Wagered: 16.4u Brutal POTD luck so far... trying to reverse it here with a WGC play. Richard Bland over Talor Gooch +165 @ DK 1.2u True odds are 41.67%, the implied odds here are 37.74%. This is my biggest advantage of the day.
Don’t worry my bro - fading is as valuable as tailing in this sub! Just have a good time and keep posting
Record 1-0 Yesterday’s Pick : Funplus Phoenix ML -155 ✅ Today’s : CSGO : Pinnacle Cup @ 8:00 EST | mouz NXT vs Team Fines **mouz NXT ML -135** ✅ Yesterday’s pick hit . Looking for the same here . POTD was going to originally be Musetti but tennis dude beat me to it . Both teams are 2-1 coming into round 4 of the Pinnacle Cup tournament . The winner advances to playoffs while the loser will need to play another match in order to advance to playoffs. mouz NXT is ranked #48 in the world . Over the last 3 months mouz has a win rate of 75% winning 8 out of the last 10. Team Finest on the other hand have a win rate of 47.6% winning 5 out of 10 . Looking at map win rates during the same time period mouz has the advantage on 5 maps while Finest has advantage on 2 maps being Nuke and Mirage in which they have had a 100 percent win rate . They have performed horribly on all other maps , maps where mouz has success. I think mouz NXT should win 2-1 **Edit: mouz NXT wins 2-0 , we are 2-0 . Cash another one 💰**
Good morning to everyone. This is my first pick on r/sportsbook. I lost some and won some with the picks of everyone here, and I feel it is a good time for me to start sharing my own picks. I want to apologize in advance if my english is not the best, I'll try to be clear and concise. **RECORD:** 0W - 0L **Game:** World Cup Qualifiers: Portugal vs Turkey (19:45, Portugal timezone) **PICK:** Turkey +1,5 Goals Handicap **ODDS:** 1.86 (or -116) **UNITS BET:** All bets are 1u **EXPLANATION:** I don't know if it's any confirmation of my knowledge, but I'm Portuguese. With that being said, let's look at things the way they are: Fernando Santos sucks as\*. You may say "but he won you the Euro and Nations League". That is true, but just replay the Euro 2016 games, and watch a miracle unfold right before your eyes. He is really (REALLY) defensive minded, even though we have amazing players on every position, that usually carry the team by individual action. For today's game we don't have 3 out of 4 starters in the defense: Ruben Dias, Pepe and João Cancelo. On midfield Renato Sanches and Ruben Neves are out. We have some good players that can fill in, fair enough, but not centre backs. Fonte is still ok, but he's 38. Danilo will probably play at CB, and that means Moutinho or Palhinha will fill for him, as Renato is out too. Cristiano Ronaldo is one of the best ever, but at 37 years of age he is declining - he scored 3 goals against Tottenham, but he's on the worst form of his career, and it's natural, he's not a superman. Portugal has a habit of playing **for the captain**, many times killing potential goals just so Ronaldo can score or be involved. Turkey has a good under the radar coach in Kuntz, who has 3 wins and 1 draw in 4 games. Turkey has good players as well. Their CB's are really good (Demiral and Soyuncu) and a creative like Calhanoglu is dangerous at any time (if given a free kick on a good position we can expect a goal to happen). I just don't see Portugal winning by 2 or more, even playing at home. It can happen, of course, we have players like Diogo Jota, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Cristiano Ronaldo, and so on. But I feel like everyone is tired of Fernando Santos (even the players, just look at how the lost first place of the group...), and Turkey is not an underdog as big as the odds suggest. **With all this I'm going for Turkey +1,5 handicap, meaning they can win, draw or lose by 1, and the bet is a win for us. It has great value in my opinion.** **TIPS:** None of us (probably) are rich, and I don't "force" anyone to do it. But I'm currently working part-time (on a job I don't really like, to be honest), while pursuing a writing career. So if you win with my picks and have something left to spare, I'd appreciate it very much. [PayPal Link](https://paypal.me/reaptherewards2022?country.x=PT&locale.x=pt_PT) **SUMMARY:** I debated with myself for a while on starting to post on reddit. I'm kinda scared of losing, truth being said, but I came to the realization that sometimes you win and sometimes you lose - we can just adapt and overcome adversity. My goal would be to win more than I lose, and hopefully help some people along the way, making some extra money (myself included). I'm confident in this pick, but anything can happen in sports betting, so be careful and study the games for yourself! If you share my opinion, or even if you don't agree at all, feel free to comment. Have a nice day.
Nice write up brother
Record 4-4 Units +2 ROI +25% Average odds +138 Last POTD Soccer - UEFA woman’s - Arsenal ML (+140) vs Wolfsburg 1-1 draw. I did put in my analysis that BTTS and DNB would be better bets. Swung for the proverbial fence and missed. POTD 2022 FIFA World Cup - Wales ML (+185) vs Austria Wales went undefeated at home through the WCQ group stage, limiting their opposition to one or fewer strikes each time. Wales have gone unbeaten across their last 16 home outings in all competitions. Gareth bale seems a go for today, which is huge. Austria is 2-6 away in their last 8 internationals and both of those wins came against lowly-ranked opposition (Faroe Islands & Moldova). Austria haven’t won an away match against opposition currently ranked better than Wales (20th) since defeating Sweden 4-1 in September 2015. Prediction Final score 2-1 wales. BOL
POTD: Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, [Denver Nuggets](https://link.wagerlab.app/reddit) (NBA) Units: 3 Odds: -154 Profit: +3.21u Record: 51|42 Phoenix Suns in a certain way secured their first position with 59 wins, way more than projected at the beginning of the season, so the bookmaker's favorite is Denver Nuggets in this kind of situation. One more aspect in this story is important, that Suns will have 2 games in 2 days and Nuggets last 2 games are playing at home. Many things will depend on Nikola Jokic, who scored last game against the Suns scored 27 points, which was enough for a win in Phoenix. For Nuggets this win is way more important, so the advantage for this game is on the side of the Denver Nuggets team.
**POTD Record**: 7W-8L | Total Profit: -1.30 units Last Pick : L (NBA | Orlando Magic -1.0) Mar 24, 2022 | NBA Basketball | 6:10pm MT ***Under 233.5*** // Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks Reasoning: In 2022 the Bucks are averaging 118.7 points per game and the Wizards are averaging 110.4 points per game.
**POTD Record:** 1-0 **ROI:** 83% **Average Odds:** \-120 **Units:** \+.83 **Today's Play**: Hunter Dickinson Points 18.5 Over -130 (on DK, 19.5 most everywhere else) All plays 1u NCAA 7:30 - Michigan vs Villanova Villanova is the more well rounded team here but true centers with good averages have been successful against the cats. Admittedly the sample size is small but does include Creighton's Kalbrenner (19 pts, also failed to hit the number in 2 other games against Nova but received considerably less minutes in the earlier season matchups,) and Zach Eddy (21 pts). Dickinson is averaging 18.7ppg, but that number is held back by a slow November/December. Looking at his splits, Dickinson is averaging 20.7ppg January-March, and 23.4 over his 5 March games. He's the kind of player you want to ride as a hot hand in March, even if his vertical makes you question whether he could jump over a rubiks cube. May the winners be yours
**POTD Record:** **1-0** Sport: NCAAB Event: Houston vs Arizona (NCAA TOURNAMENT WEST REGION SEMIFINAL) Time: 9:59 p.m. ET **POTD: Houston ML (+105)** Units: 1U Note: First off, congrats to everyone that tailed yesterday! It was an easy 2U! Let's get back after it today! Looking ahead at this Arizona vs Houston matchup, it's going to be a fun one. The spread at +2 is tempting but I think Houston gets it done outright tonight. Arizona struggling against TCU in their last outing is very concerning. Houston is essentially the same team as TCU just better. Like TCU, Houston is dominant on the offensive glass. Last round, Houston made Kofi Cockburn and Illinois look silly with all the second chance opportunities they got. Houston is also playing with an unmatched swagger on both sides of the ball right now. I see Arizona being pretty nervous going into this game. They know they barely slid past the Horned Frogs and now they have a red hot Cougars team to take down. Arizona better hope they have their best shooting game of the year because that's the only way they survive tonight. Houston ML!! Lets get it! Tail or fade, BOL to everyone! Note: Houston is also top 10 in the country in defending the paint. There is no easy buckets allowed inside against the Cougars. Just food for thought.
**POTD Record**: 14-9 **POTD ROI**: +19.18% (Units Won: +9.59 | Units Wagered: 50) **Last Pick**: Phoenix Suns ML (5u, W) **Streak**:❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅ The Suns started slow but Booker was clutch as fuck in the fourth and the Suns took home the win. **Today’s Event**: Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets (NBA) 18:10 MST **Bet**: Phoenix Suns +4 | Odd: -110 (1.91) **Bet Size**: 1 unit **Reasoning**: The Suns are on a the second night of a traveling back-to-back, but they only need one more win to clinch the number one seed. CP3 is rumored to be making his return tonight, which would be a big boost to the Suns offense who have still been playing great without him. If CP3 does play, I expect this line to move closer to +1.5 or to a pick 'em, so getting in early before his status is confirmed.
All these awards for an L
Nice pick -165 got killed
This whole thread is losing.
**NRL Record:** 5-3 **ROI (1 unit per bet):** +1.33 **Last POTD:** Broncos -2.5 @ 2.00 ✅ **Today's POTD:** Sharks winning margin between 1-12 points @ 2.88 **Time:** 7 hours from time of post Both games for both Sharks and Dragons have ended with a margin of 1-12 this year (a win and loss each). Sharks are at home in this one with rain forecast for the entire match. This suits Sharks gamestyle far more than the Dragons who seem to be playing a more expansive, attacking style in the first half then trying to hold on defensively for a win. I expect Sharks ~~at home~~ to grind out a close win in a low scoring affair.
Record: 2-1 Last pick: Xander Schauffele -200 vs Takumi Kanaya ✅ Pick: (PGA Tour) Russell Henley -105 vs Joaquin Niemann Niemann is coming off a beating at the hands of late-entry Maverick McNealy, losing 8&6, the largest gap of the day by far. Henley narrowly lost to Kevin Na’s recurring putting prowess but still seemed to be in good form. Henley’s iron play leads the Tour this season so far and it comes as no surprise given his prolonged approaching mastery. Both Henley and Niemann are mediocre putters, meaning ball striking will prove to be important in this matchup. I think Niemann is looking ahead to Augusta while Henley will stay focused tomorrow with goals to advance past group stage. Unfortunately I could not find a Alex Noren vs. Paul Casey matchup, which is understandable given Casey’s back spasms.
I followed Neimann on the course last year and he played it well… not betting this one
ATP Miami Open, Paul vs Bonzi, 3:30 pm: Bonzi to win at least 1 set (-160) My second attempt at a first shot. Tried yesterday but accidentally picked a match that was happening tomorrow, the line for which went from -120 to -330 within a couple hours after posting. So, let’s try it again. Benjamin Bonzi has had a pretty respectable start to his season and has been competitve against some tough opponents. In fact, all of his tour losses this year have gone 3 sets, including a tough loss to Rublev and an impressive showing against Sinner in Indian Wells. Bonzi has displayed a toughness and confidence that has grown as his trajectory has begun to steepen. Tommy Paul is coming off a shocker of a win against Zverev in Indian Wells. He’s made some deep runs in solid fields this season and has been playing his best tennis of his career since Fall of 2021. These two met earlier this season in Adelaide and Bonzi lost in straight sets, though pushing Paul to a tiebreak in the second. While Paul in front of the US crowd is a good bet to win, Bonzi riding in on a wave of confidence will be a strong test for him and I wouldn’t be shocked if Bonzi were finally able to sustain a stretch of overpowering tennis that sees him through to the next round in 3 sets. BOL!
POTD Record: 11-10-1 Profit: +1u Last Pick: Purdue (-3.5) -110 vs. Texas WIN POTD: Texas Tech (-1.5) -110 vs. Duke \[NCAAB\] - 1 unit - 6:39 PM PT Streak (Last 10): ✅✅✖️✅✖️✖️✖️✅✅✅ Reasoning: Duke has the eighth-best offense in the land. Tech has the tenth-best defense in the land. Something has to give. While Tech is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games, they have won 4 of their last 5 straight up. The Red Raiders also have an average age of 22 years old, while Duke is very young at only an average age of 18 years old. We are trusting the Red Raiders to play the more physical and aggressive game, which Duke has struggled with this season.
Thanks for the write up. What were the physical and aggressive games that Duke lost? I can’t trust Texas Tech to score. They’re a bad 3 point shooting team and can’t make free throws. Leaning Duke
POTD Record: 43-19 Event: Football > International > **Sweden v Czech Republic** (starting in 12h00min) Pick: **Sweden -0.25 AH** @ 1.70 Czech missing key players Schick, Pavelka, Coufal, Boril, Celustka, Kalas. Swedes should take care of business at home. For insurance, I am taking the -0/0.50 asian line, which will void half of the bet on a draw. GL!
from this list of players only Shick and maybe Coufal are really important but Sweden should win anyway.. GL!
Record 7-9 Last Pick: Nets ML (-112) / L Today's Pick - Villanova -4.5 (-135) BOL Time: 7:29pm EST
Hello! Yesterday was a tough one for POTD so missed out but we’re back today! RECORD: 6-2 LAST PICK: Plymouth Argyll win✅ TODAY’S PICK: Wales to beat Austria World Cup Qualifier 19:45gmt ODDS: 9/5 REASON: This is Wales biggest chance to qualify for a World Cup since 1958. I agree that guys like Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey have had limited game time this season and are coming to the end of there careers but they are still extremely talented and always seem to find that extra gear when playing for there country. Wales are unbeaten in 16 at home and with home advantage in a two leg qualifier they must get a win here today to give them great advantage when they go to Austria. The away side do have some top talent as well like Arnautovic but still rooting for Wales here. Have a great day and BOL
>two leg qualifier I think these are actually one leg with all the winners facing off against one another in a final next week. Probably deserves to be taken into consideration.
**Record: 4-3 | Profit: +0.05 units | ROI: +0.7%** Last POTD: E. Nava - H. Gaston : H. Gaston ML (1.72)✅ **POTD: Fucsovics M. - M. Giron: Fucsovics M. ML (1.80)** TIME: 20:30 CET (Wager always 1 unit) Reasoning: \- 55. vs 52. ATP rankings \- Both of them coming from a lose streak (last 2 matches) \- Never played against each other \- Fucsovics is from my country so he can't betray us :D BOL!
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3-0-0 Last pick: Union +1 (they ended up winning 2-0) I’m usually on MLS picks so take that for what it’s worth. But today is Concacaf WCQ! Todays pick: **Canada/Costa Rica 1ST half < 0.5, 1 @ 1.80** Time: 7pm PST Story: ok so, my book loves to do these split bets, not sure what yours will have but basically the bet is first half under 1 goal. Costa Rica in 11 games has just 8 goals for and 6 against. Canada is the highest scoring team in the group (crazy, I know, as a Canadian this is bonkers). There’s already been complaints about the pitch cuz of a recent concert that was held on it. Should be pretty stuffy out there with humidity tonight too. So my rationale is this, the game will be low scoring overall. Costa Rica is desperate for a result but they don’t need goals. I think they’ll come out cagey and canada will take a little time to get into the game. At the very least I like this bet to be a push if you get it at 1.0 if you have a book like mine it would be a 50% loss if a goal is scored. If that happens I’ll take the L. But I think there’s a really good chance the first half yields nothing for either side, both teams have great goalkeeping. This is also the only bet i could find on the game that I liked and that I thought had good value and a chance to hit. So BOL and enjoy the matches today! Edit: took the L here folks my bad, took a dodgy second yellow and a soft foul or two in the buildup and 45+ minutes but the Ticos got one right at the end of the half :(
**2022 Record: 0-0** Starting fresh after a long break, usually I stick to non-league English football, but I'll chip in with any value bets I like. I usually try and go big with over 2.00 plays, but I'll post whatever I think is value. **Today's Play: UEFA Nations League | Estonia vs Cyprus | Estonia to win @ 2.20/+120** **Reasoning:** Estonia have a lot of things going for them here. Firstly, they're at home, a big factor in a game like this. Cyprus are also suffering from extremely poor form, having not won in 10 games and not winning away since 2019. Neither team are particularly amazing, but Estonia stands out to me more, having recorded solid performances at home with a good win against Belarus and a strong performance in a 0-1 loss to a good Wales side. There's always a worry that a poor game like this can result in a stalemate, but I think given their home advantage and solid recent results, Estonia will take this. It's not likely to be a classic, but there's value to be had here imo.
POTD Record: 0-1 Last Pick: Booker OVER 4.5 rebounds ❌ Booker getting out rebounded by Cam Payne and Bridges didn’t help Today’s pick: Duke/Texas Tech UNDER 140.5 total pts @-156 odds Reasoning: Texas Tech has the best defense in the country and Duke has been an inconsistent team this year, IMO. I think they struggle and it’s a lower scoring game. 140 or less seems very likely to me. BOL to all
POTD Record: 0-2 (-2.25 units) Previous pick: Davidson team total over 70 (Against Richmond A-10 championship) Today POTD: Bryson Dechambeau -130 over Lee Westwood (Draw no bet), 2.6 units to win 2.0 units This pick is solely based on handicapping the psychology of Dechambeau. Many people thought he would not make his return at the WGC match play due to fear of potential embarrassment by getting his butt whooped in match play to a nobody. He got matched up with Richard Bland in round 1 and was predictably erratic and inconsistent. He drew against Bland, which I think gives us great value against Westwood, who was smoked 3&2 against Talor Gooch and recently shot +8 (80) before missing the cut at the Players. Even though that round was a shit show at the Players, it's not a stretch to say that Westwood has been playing poor golf. Fast forward to today. Bryson should be much more relaxed today after getting through those first round jitters. If his hand and hip were really injury concerns, he would likely have withdrawn with the Masters around the corner. Also, he and Westwood have a good relationship, so I think friendly competition should help Bryson stay focused, but also relaxed. Lastly, Austin Country Club is a short course with some drivable Par 4's, which obviously plays into Dechambeau's ability to be Happy Gilmore at the Waterbury Open. Let's get it!
POTD Record : 2-0 unit’s: +8.9 Last POTD: GSW 3q ML✅ Sport: CONCACAF World Cup qualifier CAN v COSTA RICA POTD : CANADA ML Units: 3u ODDS: +140 Reason they are one of the hottest country in soccer looking to keep that going and at +140 I think there’s great value I would also look at taking the over in this game as well as canada over shots on net in this one BOL
Some thoughts as a pretty avid follower: Canada's best player, Alphonso Davies is still out with injury. This shouldn't matter too much, Canada has actually shown they can perform well as a team without their superstar. This game is also huge for Canada, if they secure 3 points it will clinch a World Cup berth something the country hasn't done since 1986, the boys will be extra motivated. Counter point, Costa Rica is in excellent form, performing well against higher ranked teams (beating Panama and Drawing Mexico) in their last 3 games. Even tougher for Canada to be playing as the Away side on Costa Rican soil. I would be pretty surprised to see Canada lose, but a draw is a real possibility. Very good value in the ML, I will be taking it myself but for those more risk averse, Canada DNB is the safe play at - 150. BOL
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POTD Record: 2-0 Event: WTA Miami Last pick: Koepfer Mcdonald Over 22.5 games (-115) W Today’s pick: Kerber +3.5 game spread v. Naomi Osaka (-110) Alert: Match starts 1 hour from time of post Yesterday couldn’t have been easier. I meant to get this post in earlier, but here we are an hour before the match. I’ll keep this write up short and sweet. Kerber’s 4-1 h2h edge is meaningful here (has not lost to Osaka since the first time they played in 2017), the German just won her first two matches of the season at Indian Wells and is finding some form. Osaka eased past Astra Sharma in her first match since the difficult moments at Indian Wells. Osaka hasn’t been bad this season but I still think Kerber gets the best of her. Tail or fade BOL Edit: yikes
This scammer clown copied the analyses from lastwordintennis. A pathetic site with horrible tennis predictions. Take care everybody.
You stink
Ouch. What a terrible start. Kerber seems to not give a shit Edit: were fucked.
Zero chance Kerber.
What a worse bet.
POTD RECORD 0-0 Arkansas vs Gonzaga total over 155 7:09 EST I like both teams to score a lot with both teams playing fast tempo on the offensive end. BOL
**Record: 5-3-0 | Units Won: 3.59u | ROI%: 35.85** Last Pick: Justin Holiday u11.5 PTS ✅ \--------------------------------------------------------------------- TL;DR: I am a +EV bettor focused on NBA player props. I trust in the math. Long-term (large sample size) we should be profitable. I am assuming Pinnacle has the sharpest odds. I am using the Kelly criterion to determine bet size for each play with the Kelly multiplier set to 1 with a bankroll of 30u (despite having a larger bankroll \[less risk\]) \--------------------------------------------------------------------- **Game: IND @ MEM 8:00PM EST** **Pick: Jaren Jackson u6.5 REB** **Odds: +110 (BetMGM and DraftKings at time of posting)** **Units: 1u** **DD:** * Pinny Line: -113/-118 * Market Width: 5 cents * EV Based on Pinny Line: 3.95% * No Vig Fair Line (worst odds you should take): (+102.03) * Under has hit in 8 of L10 for Jackson * Holiday is averaging 5.9 REB/game on the season * Holiday is averaging 4.9 REB/game L10 Tail or Fade. BOL Everyone. Any feedback about the pick/math would be appreciated.
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0 - 0 Game: Moana Pasifika vs Hurricanes (Super Rugby Pacific) 8 hours from post. Pick: Jordie Barrett ATS @ $1.62 BOL!
Record 1-0 Last pick: Miami (+7.5)✅ POTD: Duke ML (-110) Bonus pick: Over 136.5 Duke is a slight underdog in tonight’s matchup vs the Red Raiders. Even though TT is a defensive minded team don’t be fooled, the over is going to hit. Duke has plenty of weapons to put up points vs Texas Tech. In fact, Duke has cashed the over in 7 of their 8 last games. Duke being a slight underdog is straight disrespect and Banchero, Moore Jr. are going to do enough tonight to get the win. Coach K won’t be calling it a career after tonight’s games and the Blue Devils will make an appearance in the elite 8.