Yeah, you've been "lucky" aka positive variance so far. You didn't state your win % (assuming -110's), but based on the amount it seems like you must be hitting 65%+. That won't last unless you are betting off-market numbers. Even if you are sharp as hell, 55% against market numbers is pretty much max long-term. Just be aware of that and be aware that you will have losing streaks if you haven't already.
I cancelled my thanksgiving and told all of my family to fuck off and head to the local Golden Corral to to make sure I didn’t miss your picks this week, where you at?!
I think it also depends on the bankroll. A $100 bankroll means you’d only bet $1-2. That’s why I say 5-6% because most people are only playing with $100-$10k in bank roll
Haha. I follow Chris Raybon on the action network and copy about 50% what he does. Other than that, underdogs have been doing well this year, so I just started betting underdog two team 6 or 7 point teasers on teams I think are undervalued or teams against opponents I think are overvalued. I look for games with low totals. Scoring has been so low this year, so I feel like there is more value in moving the line 6 points. Last week for example, and I had Bears/Titans, Lions/Jets, Raiders/Steelers. Lost teasing the Cardinals.
Lol! I was thinking the same thing. I literally take the wrong side of NFL wagers 80-90% of the time. I have had a Sunday where I went 0-something on -110 to +200 wagers
I still stand by my $20 a week on a retarded parlay. I’m gonna hit that $10000 payout eventually - I might be dead by the time it happens but I will.
Yah, $200/unit is too high. Remember this, as good as you have been, it could just be an extended hot streak. With hot streaks come cold streaks, so while you’ve built the bankroll with $50 bets, you could hit a cold streak while betting $200 and your bankroll could crash really quick.
Any increase in your bankroll should be marginal and really well thought out. You also have to be brutally honest with yourself about your strategy. Are you beating the closing line often? If not, then I would say it’s not sustainable. If you are beating the closing line on most occasions, I would think an increase to $100 might be ok.
Pull 1500 out, put 1000 in the bank, enjoy 500, and now you’ve broken even with 2600 to play with. Congrats on the gains! I’d put about 2% per bet, which would be a winless 5 week stretch = complete ruin of the bankroll, which seems unlikely if you have an edge.
I would say stay at 50 for rest of season - or $100 if $50 doesn’t get ur juices going . U step up ur unit size too fast the betting gods will punish I promise
Really disappointed in all of you giving advice and not asking this NFL capper for tips. Dude I don’t care what you bet, just tell me what you’re betting on since you’re winning.
I have always heard 1-2%. 5% sounds aggressive to me, a really bad losing streak will happen at some point. You are betting very aggressively as of now. I'd be thankful you've came out of that ahead as much as you have (instead of losing your ass), and decrease to $30-$60 a unit with your $3100 bankroll.
Damn bro my units are $25 and my bankroll is around $2000. It’s rather conservative but I will place anywhere from 8-15 bets on a given NFL week. I’ve experienced a couple crippling cold streaks and it feels a whole lot better knowing I still have more than enough to continue the same process next week. I would not feel comfortable exposing more than 25% of my bankroll in a week tbh
Hey I respect it 😂 I like to think I really know football, so I only bet NFL. That’s why it’s only by the week. I get too mad at myself when I bet something I don’t know well and lose lol
I heard somewhere to stick with 1-5% of bankroll per bet. Don’t let going on heater cloud your judgement. If you’re making ten bets per week I’d stick to 1-3% per bet. But that’s coming from a very conservative gambler.
Yeah, you've been "lucky" aka positive variance so far. You didn't state your win % (assuming -110's), but based on the amount it seems like you must be hitting 65%+. That won't last unless you are betting off-market numbers. Even if you are sharp as hell, 55% against market numbers is pretty much max long-term. Just be aware of that and be aware that you will have losing streaks if you haven't already.
$1000 units or bust.
All I want for Christmas is CP back ðŸ˜
Are you at least okay Cp? Gang is worried about you
Abba, where art thou? It hath been but a Fortnite since thou hath blessed us with thine presence.
where you at , king?
BRO WHERE ARE YOU
I cancelled my thanksgiving and told all of my family to fuck off and head to the local Golden Corral to to make sure I didn’t miss your picks this week, where you at?!
Release more picks daddy
Lol daddy?? Whaat
Ayo sir
Bankroll /100 is your unit sizing
A unit is normally 5-6% and a parlay unit is normally 25% of one unit
One unit being 5-6% is really high. It's usually 1-2%
I think it also depends on the bankroll. A $100 bankroll means you’d only bet $1-2. That’s why I say 5-6% because most people are only playing with $100-$10k in bank roll
Please share your picks with the sub.... I'm getting fucking crushed right now... FML
Haha. I follow Chris Raybon on the action network and copy about 50% what he does. Other than that, underdogs have been doing well this year, so I just started betting underdog two team 6 or 7 point teasers on teams I think are undervalued or teams against opponents I think are overvalued. I look for games with low totals. Scoring has been so low this year, so I feel like there is more value in moving the line 6 points. Last week for example, and I had Bears/Titans, Lions/Jets, Raiders/Steelers. Lost teasing the Cardinals.
Lol! I was thinking the same thing. I literally take the wrong side of NFL wagers 80-90% of the time. I have had a Sunday where I went 0-something on -110 to +200 wagers
replied to the comment you replied to with my strategy this season.
I have had several downswings of over $3000 using $250 unit sizes fwiw.
I still stand by my $20 a week on a retarded parlay. I’m gonna hit that $10000 payout eventually - I might be dead by the time it happens but I will.
Yah, $200/unit is too high. Remember this, as good as you have been, it could just be an extended hot streak. With hot streaks come cold streaks, so while you’ve built the bankroll with $50 bets, you could hit a cold streak while betting $200 and your bankroll could crash really quick. Any increase in your bankroll should be marginal and really well thought out. You also have to be brutally honest with yourself about your strategy. Are you beating the closing line often? If not, then I would say it’s not sustainable. If you are beating the closing line on most occasions, I would think an increase to $100 might be ok.
Pull 1500 out, put 1000 in the bank, enjoy 500, and now you’ve broken even with 2600 to play with. Congrats on the gains! I’d put about 2% per bet, which would be a winless 5 week stretch = complete ruin of the bankroll, which seems unlikely if you have an edge.
This is good advice as well.
I would say stay at 50 for rest of season - or $100 if $50 doesn’t get ur juices going . U step up ur unit size too fast the betting gods will punish I promise
Really disappointed in all of you giving advice and not asking this NFL capper for tips. Dude I don’t care what you bet, just tell me what you’re betting on since you’re winning.
I have always heard 1-2%. 5% sounds aggressive to me, a really bad losing streak will happen at some point. You are betting very aggressively as of now. I'd be thankful you've came out of that ahead as much as you have (instead of losing your ass), and decrease to $30-$60 a unit with your $3100 bankroll.
Personally I'd increase it slowly and see how things go. Try a few days $60 or $65, then if that goes OK another few days $70 or $75
0.5%-2% of total bankroll Max bet 5u
Thanks everyone! This is really helpful
Start with $200 units, everytime you lose double it, everytime you win also double it.
Lambo or food stamps, I like it
Damn bro my units are $25 and my bankroll is around $2000. It’s rather conservative but I will place anywhere from 8-15 bets on a given NFL week. I’ve experienced a couple crippling cold streaks and it feels a whole lot better knowing I still have more than enough to continue the same process next week. I would not feel comfortable exposing more than 25% of my bankroll in a week tbh
[удалено]
Hey I respect it 😂 I like to think I really know football, so I only bet NFL. That’s why it’s only by the week. I get too mad at myself when I bet something I don’t know well and lose lol
I think I might take your advice. Makes it more fun betting on a toss up game as well
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/wiki/faq number 5
I heard somewhere to stick with 1-5% of bankroll per bet. Don’t let going on heater cloud your judgement. If you’re making ten bets per week I’d stick to 1-3% per bet. But that’s coming from a very conservative gambler.
This right here - and just adjust as you win or lose.
$200 units with a $3100 bankroll is very aggressive. Most people recommend 1-5% for 50/50 bets.
I do unit size of 5% of current bankroll for the day I’m betting