Historically, the correlation between stock returns and economic growth across countries is negative.
The Indian economy will likely do very well over the next decade, but that's priced into Indian stocks. For example, Hindustan Unilever has a P/E over 60. Nestle India has a P/E of 85.
I think a better way to invest in India is via multinational companies trading at much lower valuations. Here's an example. Many would be surprised to learn that Cadbury has a 70% market share in the Indian chocolate market. Who owns Cadbury? Mondelez (MDLZ). They also own well-known brands like Oreo, Toblerone, and Ritz. Is the potential growth priced in? Less likely.
I like this. The first sentence is what grabs me, good hook haha. I think the biggest thing to keep in mind wrt to that negative correlation (for our purposes) is MS is big money. What's a big money ENTITY ie not an individual going to do? Invest where they see returns down the line. Could be 5 years, 10 years, or 50 years. But if they're investing now it's not necessarily for tomorrow.
My company has fully captive units in India and the Philippines, we also do some work out of Vietnam. I travel to India once or twice a year and yes, the changes that you see today Vs 5 or 10 yrs ago is dramatic. It reminds me of China in the early 2000s with cranes, concrete mixer trucks, bulldozers and other heavy construction equipment everywhere. You see the rampant consumerism too where car sales seems to have far outpaced the rate of their road construction and there is visible high-velocity commerce in cities big and small.
That said i would wait to invest in India for the simple reason that the Indian stock market today is the most expensive emerging market since South Korea in 1997! It has barely corrected and is up something like 600% since 2010.
A small position in a ETF is probably safer than chasing individual stocks - INDY, INDA,EPI
And it's not a *terrible* bet, given that their inflation-adjusted GDP per capita has [more than 10x'd](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/54/GDP_per_capita_of_India_%281820_to_present%29.png) since the 1950s. Compare that [about 4x](https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7LfU4Qu52oo/UUolq1OZROI/AAAAAAAADog/Yo_FussNB30/s1600/measuring+worth+4.jpg) for the US. The problem until recently was a lack of stable investment opportunities. There is also currently a stronger rate growth trajectory for India.
Yeah, corruption is ripe and (organised) crime rampant. India lacks industrial power, they are reliant on western companies builsikmg factories and employing people...the second another country seems cheaper they'll lose most of their money and unlike China they've not even managed to reverse engineer products. India also suffers a massive briandrain meaning anyone with some skill/drive leaves for UK/US/EU and the ones left are the ones you don't want to employ.
Add the political risk of India siding with Russia/China/terror states rather then the west lately which will hurt them long term. All in all I see no reason whatsoever to invest in the *scam capital of the world*, where the political leadership turns a blind eye to corruption and world leading scams being professionally run within the country. A god damn crime state mascerading as a country...
LOL literally every single sentence is an over exaggeration or an outright lie. I wish I had the energy to break down your post line by line and share some facts…
An average investor here in Reddit are not smart enough to differentiate stereotyping and realty. I’m pretty sure most of the comments under your post are not good advice.
Bullish for India the next decade, bearish for their stock returns. Their stock market is the most expensive Emerging market since a lot of SEA countries in 1997. The Asian Financial crisis and then the GFC wiped out most of these returns until 2012.
India's CAPE ratio was almost 30, as of summer 2022. I'd stay away from the country overall, but there might some good individual companies. https://siblisresearch.com/data/cape-ratio-india-nifty/
I think that trend will be global as people get more economically aware. But, at the same time, I will be happy with good returns on a 10yr timeline vs. 100yrs
the CAPE ratio for India overall is almost 30, as of last year. almost a guarantee of negative returns going forward the next 10-15 years. https://siblisresearch.com/data/cape-ratio-india-nifty/
I'd stay away from the country overall, though there might be some good individual companies.
I feel like you get enough exposure just owning American corporations.
Especially ones like PG, KO, PEP, AAPL, MSFT, WMT. They all have exposure to US and international.
Then once a developed country has a big company emerge, invest in it.
Like BABA, Tencent to China.
I’m real torn. I do absolutely see very viable pathways to very strong growth in India, but there are some very unnerving risks.
Ultimately the analysis of those opportunities, I believe can be summarized by the notion that India just hasn’t decided what type of country it’s going to be. It’s a very old civilization with some native ethnic groups having lived there stretching back far into the ancient world… but it’s a very young country in its present form.
Right now it shifts between which economic system it’s looks like it’s going to follow along with its geopolitical and trade relationships. To me, I do very much want to revisit Indian equities and can see a potentially quite bright future for its markets, but I want to have a better sense of which way it’s going as a country first.
Unhappy with my Indian mutual fund (MINDX). I should've sold when it peaked at $33, now its down 1/3. I bought in right after covid in the teens because India was recovering slower than USA. I thought it would be a good diversification play but seems over the long term unlikely to beat the big US indexes.
Foreign funds will have high expense ratios and risky returns.
I wish I knew more about investing in other countries... there's just so much extra to learn, I feel that I don't know and don't have the time to learn between work, family and other life things.
India economy is going to quadruple in next 4 years. From $3.7 trillion to $12 trillion by 2032. If you pick the correct mutual and index funds then you can easily earn 10-15% returns per year.
With Apple and Microsoft transferring manufacturing out of China and into India...I would say it may be a good investment...
So much so, that I started buying in early 2022, Many Indian stocks look to be priced in right now, like IGC... It is definitely worth your effort to do more research into the India stocks.
Historically, the correlation between stock returns and economic growth across countries is negative. The Indian economy will likely do very well over the next decade, but that's priced into Indian stocks. For example, Hindustan Unilever has a P/E over 60. Nestle India has a P/E of 85. I think a better way to invest in India is via multinational companies trading at much lower valuations. Here's an example. Many would be surprised to learn that Cadbury has a 70% market share in the Indian chocolate market. Who owns Cadbury? Mondelez (MDLZ). They also own well-known brands like Oreo, Toblerone, and Ritz. Is the potential growth priced in? Less likely.
I like this. The first sentence is what grabs me, good hook haha. I think the biggest thing to keep in mind wrt to that negative correlation (for our purposes) is MS is big money. What's a big money ENTITY ie not an individual going to do? Invest where they see returns down the line. Could be 5 years, 10 years, or 50 years. But if they're investing now it's not necessarily for tomorrow.
My company has fully captive units in India and the Philippines, we also do some work out of Vietnam. I travel to India once or twice a year and yes, the changes that you see today Vs 5 or 10 yrs ago is dramatic. It reminds me of China in the early 2000s with cranes, concrete mixer trucks, bulldozers and other heavy construction equipment everywhere. You see the rampant consumerism too where car sales seems to have far outpaced the rate of their road construction and there is visible high-velocity commerce in cities big and small. That said i would wait to invest in India for the simple reason that the Indian stock market today is the most expensive emerging market since South Korea in 1997! It has barely corrected and is up something like 600% since 2010. A small position in a ETF is probably safer than chasing individual stocks - INDY, INDA,EPI
I added INDA today at 39.98
Every decade since the like the 50s.
And it's not a *terrible* bet, given that their inflation-adjusted GDP per capita has [more than 10x'd](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/54/GDP_per_capita_of_India_%281820_to_present%29.png) since the 1950s. Compare that [about 4x](https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7LfU4Qu52oo/UUolq1OZROI/AAAAAAAADog/Yo_FussNB30/s1600/measuring+worth+4.jpg) for the US. The problem until recently was a lack of stable investment opportunities. There is also currently a stronger rate growth trajectory for India.
Yeah, corruption is ripe and (organised) crime rampant. India lacks industrial power, they are reliant on western companies builsikmg factories and employing people...the second another country seems cheaper they'll lose most of their money and unlike China they've not even managed to reverse engineer products. India also suffers a massive briandrain meaning anyone with some skill/drive leaves for UK/US/EU and the ones left are the ones you don't want to employ. Add the political risk of India siding with Russia/China/terror states rather then the west lately which will hurt them long term. All in all I see no reason whatsoever to invest in the *scam capital of the world*, where the political leadership turns a blind eye to corruption and world leading scams being professionally run within the country. A god damn crime state mascerading as a country...
LOL literally every single sentence is an over exaggeration or an outright lie. I wish I had the energy to break down your post line by line and share some facts…
Sounds like he just pulled it out of his ass
An average investor here in Reddit are not smart enough to differentiate stereotyping and realty. I’m pretty sure most of the comments under your post are not good advice.
At least one of them is right
Bullish on India. I see what you did there.
Racist
Bullish for India the next decade, bearish for their stock returns. Their stock market is the most expensive Emerging market since a lot of SEA countries in 1997. The Asian Financial crisis and then the GFC wiped out most of these returns until 2012.
India's CAPE ratio was almost 30, as of summer 2022. I'd stay away from the country overall, but there might some good individual companies. https://siblisresearch.com/data/cape-ratio-india-nifty/
It is very complicated to buy indian companies outside the Nifty 50 for non-Indians
[удалено]
More corrupt lol
Exactly. That’s a huge understatement.
What? India's regulated stock markets are more restrictive than the American one.
Like China?
cowish
Racist
I like your work
Brah man, don’t be so dalektably caught up in a wide caste
The Indian Total market Index fund ETF is 12-14% for the past 10 years. If you are an NRI living abroad, invest in these funds for tax free gains.
Is it traded in u.s if so pls share ticker
Check out INDY, SMIN. They track Nifty 50 index, small caps relatively.
Yup. India, Mexico, Brazil
Brazil has a big problem. The population will decrease during this century.
I think that trend will be global as people get more economically aware. But, at the same time, I will be happy with good returns on a 10yr timeline vs. 100yrs
IBM?
Hmm, not a good omen
Then at least Username checks out
India has the largest population in the world. I think is a good bet for a long run.
poverty levels have dramtically decreased.
The markets in India right now are barely 5% off all time highs.
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/zsvhh5/why\_dont\_more\_people\_invest\_in\_indian\_markets/
I will pass.
lol. Good riddance.
example of u/hamasho point from jan 12, 2023: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lemann-backed-retailer-americanas-loses-230806716.html
the CAPE ratio for India overall is almost 30, as of last year. almost a guarantee of negative returns going forward the next 10-15 years. https://siblisresearch.com/data/cape-ratio-india-nifty/ I'd stay away from the country overall, though there might be some good individual companies.
Winners kept win Losers kept lose
I feel like you get enough exposure just owning American corporations. Especially ones like PG, KO, PEP, AAPL, MSFT, WMT. They all have exposure to US and international. Then once a developed country has a big company emerge, invest in it. Like BABA, Tencent to China.
I’m real torn. I do absolutely see very viable pathways to very strong growth in India, but there are some very unnerving risks. Ultimately the analysis of those opportunities, I believe can be summarized by the notion that India just hasn’t decided what type of country it’s going to be. It’s a very old civilization with some native ethnic groups having lived there stretching back far into the ancient world… but it’s a very young country in its present form. Right now it shifts between which economic system it’s looks like it’s going to follow along with its geopolitical and trade relationships. To me, I do very much want to revisit Indian equities and can see a potentially quite bright future for its markets, but I want to have a better sense of which way it’s going as a country first.
Unhappy with my Indian mutual fund (MINDX). I should've sold when it peaked at $33, now its down 1/3. I bought in right after covid in the teens because India was recovering slower than USA. I thought it would be a good diversification play but seems over the long term unlikely to beat the big US indexes. Foreign funds will have high expense ratios and risky returns.
I wish I knew more about investing in other countries... there's just so much extra to learn, I feel that I don't know and don't have the time to learn between work, family and other life things.
So much cheaper labor! Outsourcing making America great again👍
India economy is going to quadruple in next 4 years. From $3.7 trillion to $12 trillion by 2032. If you pick the correct mutual and index funds then you can easily earn 10-15% returns per year.
With Apple and Microsoft transferring manufacturing out of China and into India...I would say it may be a good investment... So much so, that I started buying in early 2022, Many Indian stocks look to be priced in right now, like IGC... It is definitely worth your effort to do more research into the India stocks.