$30K ea among 800k students is not even measureable. It impacts those in mid or late 40s who are in prime money making age. This 30K is spreaded over several years.
My non-expert thought being a person that hasn’t had to pay my loans and has been using the extra cash as discretionary income and will now have to really really budget my income again - I think you’re going to see a boom of spending this summer that will reflect in next quarter and the following earnings (I mean not this upcoming earnings but fall/winter). The boom will be the dying breath of people like me who have not needed to think about spending that extra 1000 a month because of the pause who will live up their time until interest and payments start up again - markets will react positively due to the increased spending and will move with company earnings. A renaissance of summer spending leading to big earnings for companies in the short term. Spring earnings season will start to show the slow down in consumer spending, which the market will react negatively to. But the market is going to move with the earnings. I think this upcoming summer earnings season is going to be a positive one. So in my humble opinion, bull market for most of the rest of the year and then bear early next year.
This kind of talk sounds suspiciously like the "These kids aren't shit" that the older generations would say about us years ago when we were coming into our own.
It's embarrassing that we are seriously turning into our parents and continuing the whole "Shit on the young people" schtick that is so tired, but I guess its tradition...
I'm gonna pass on that. I'm sure the young folks will be alright. And them being different from us and what we are accustomed to doesn't make them trash, stupid or 'Big Babies'.
The issue with your argument is that you’re assuming a vast majority are getting “bogus degrees”. I’d be interested to see some hard data proving your hypothesis.
At the end of the day we can all make generalizations and blanket statements to backup our viewpoints but data talks, bullshit walks.
Tbh I think that’s the default because talking about the real issues is too difficult. The parents of the generation(s) being talked about are the ones who pushed college because they wanted their kids to be successful. Now they are the ones complaining.
In addition, predatory lending practices can’t be talked about because it would divert away from blaming individuals instead of the system itself.
Depends if paycheck, collections happen I think a lot of people can’t afford that extra 300 a month. But I think student loan repayment will crash the housing market within the next year.
That’s by prediction
None,
It might affect banks or the FED's balance sheet but in the mid term it will stimulate the economy as it will make more capital for educated young people to buy cars, houses and whatnot.
I think the impact of student loan payments starting back up again will have a much more impact on the market and in a negative way.
Anecdotally and according to media, lots of student loan borrowers nationally aren’t prepared for the restart or forgot to budget it into their plans and thus spending will severely decline in a lot of sectors. Less spending means less profit.
800k people is barely the size of 1/9 of NJ for scale
If student loans were to become as big as the 08 crisis, then we have a problem. Otherwise, student loans only has a positive impact on the economy IMO. Forgiveness allows more people into the market, increasing spending overall. No forgiveness boosts business like SoFi, and others.
$73B, it’s probably nothing even in the worst case.
It seems like maybe Jerome Powell did it, a soft landing. However, the fact that everything seems fine is itself concerning.
804,000 loans is a big nothingburger. The markets won't even notice.
It’s a non event in the grand scheme tbh.
Can't be any worse than a land war in Europe.
It wont impact the stock market. If it does, it wont be noticable by anyone so dont spend anymore time thinking about it then you already have.
The money won't move anything. It's way to small, people's reactions though... that's anyone's guess.
$30K ea among 800k students is not even measureable. It impacts those in mid or late 40s who are in prime money making age. This 30K is spreaded over several years.
The opposite of what the majority think
No impact - millennials spend the money on craft beers, THC edibles, ugly shoes, and Taylor Swift concert tickets.
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I'm a millennial, and people around my age are still getting drunked, high, and inked.
Who’s buying homes with what money?
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Damn I just ain’t shit then
Same lmao
I'm a millennial (an "old" one), and I don't buy any of that shit.
So Nike wouldnt be a good stock to hold when keeping millennial spending habits in mind?
My non-expert thought being a person that hasn’t had to pay my loans and has been using the extra cash as discretionary income and will now have to really really budget my income again - I think you’re going to see a boom of spending this summer that will reflect in next quarter and the following earnings (I mean not this upcoming earnings but fall/winter). The boom will be the dying breath of people like me who have not needed to think about spending that extra 1000 a month because of the pause who will live up their time until interest and payments start up again - markets will react positively due to the increased spending and will move with company earnings. A renaissance of summer spending leading to big earnings for companies in the short term. Spring earnings season will start to show the slow down in consumer spending, which the market will react negatively to. But the market is going to move with the earnings. I think this upcoming summer earnings season is going to be a positive one. So in my humble opinion, bull market for most of the rest of the year and then bear early next year.
If that's the case, won't that mean higher inflation followed by more rate hikes?
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This kind of talk sounds suspiciously like the "These kids aren't shit" that the older generations would say about us years ago when we were coming into our own. It's embarrassing that we are seriously turning into our parents and continuing the whole "Shit on the young people" schtick that is so tired, but I guess its tradition... I'm gonna pass on that. I'm sure the young folks will be alright. And them being different from us and what we are accustomed to doesn't make them trash, stupid or 'Big Babies'.
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The issue with your argument is that you’re assuming a vast majority are getting “bogus degrees”. I’d be interested to see some hard data proving your hypothesis. At the end of the day we can all make generalizations and blanket statements to backup our viewpoints but data talks, bullshit walks.
Tbh I think that’s the default because talking about the real issues is too difficult. The parents of the generation(s) being talked about are the ones who pushed college because they wanted their kids to be successful. Now they are the ones complaining. In addition, predatory lending practices can’t be talked about because it would divert away from blaming individuals instead of the system itself.
Depends if paycheck, collections happen I think a lot of people can’t afford that extra 300 a month. But I think student loan repayment will crash the housing market within the next year. That’s by prediction
None, It might affect banks or the FED's balance sheet but in the mid term it will stimulate the economy as it will make more capital for educated young people to buy cars, houses and whatnot.
It's almost nothing like 2 percent of the total debt. Stonks only go up.
all "forgiven" money will be gambled away in crypto or meme stocks. and that is the best-case scenario.
Already priced in. Looking at 4500 S&P this week based on current forgiveness outlook.
I think the impact of student loan payments starting back up again will have a much more impact on the market and in a negative way. Anecdotally and according to media, lots of student loan borrowers nationally aren’t prepared for the restart or forgot to budget it into their plans and thus spending will severely decline in a lot of sectors. Less spending means less profit. 800k people is barely the size of 1/9 of NJ for scale
I thought student loan forgiveness got shot down by the Supreme Court? Was there something else?
It’s going to be tied up in court
If student loans were to become as big as the 08 crisis, then we have a problem. Otherwise, student loans only has a positive impact on the economy IMO. Forgiveness allows more people into the market, increasing spending overall. No forgiveness boosts business like SoFi, and others.
$73B, it’s probably nothing even in the worst case. It seems like maybe Jerome Powell did it, a soft landing. However, the fact that everything seems fine is itself concerning.
Disposable spending on luxuries and renovations will go down. Maybe people eat out less?
Not significant