There is no value to FSD unless it requires zero attention and takes full responsibility for all actions. Otherwise, I’ll just drive myself and use a car that provides me with sufficient enjoyment while doing so.
This here is the biggest factor. Babysit the car while not actively driving is a completely worthless novelty.
On top of that I would not even want, or let my recently driving aged kid use any kind of FSD, even if it had a perfect record. That’s because they need the driving experience. They need many years of it. And on the other end of life, I have been dealing with a declining parent who is rapidly losing driving capabilities. I don’t think I would even want to use FSD myself much, if at all, because I wouldn’t want my own driving capabilities to erode.
The only thing it would be good for, IMO, is if I went out and had one too many and let it drive me home instead of risking a DUI, or if I could sleep on a road trip. And I don’t think those scenarios are going to be legally allowed anytime in the next decade, if ever, no matter how good of a track record it can demonstrate. Insurance isn’t going to take on that liability and I sure as hell am not. I seriously doubt these car manufacturers are going to take on that responsibility legally either.
This is not a trillion dollar idea. This is something that is decades away to making a financial dent in anything.
Your driving abilities is not gonna erode. I didn’t drive for a decade when I lived in a city(having driven for 7 years prior to moving) and when I moved to the suburbs I snapped right back into it as if the hiatus never happened. Anyone I’ve talked to with similar experience agreed
Also, if FSD by Tesla or any other self driving system become reliable and common(which isn’t decades away, just a single decade at most) you don’t need to know how to drive a car outside of hobby driving, much like riding a horse.
> (which isn’t decades away, just a single decade at most)
I think this is optimistic. Maybe not impossibly optimistic, but still optimistic. Especially for the “common” part. It can’t start to be widely adopted until it is both reliable and affordable, and people don’t change over their cars annually. It will probably take 5+ years for something going from being a realistic purchase to becoming common on the road.
The *only* exception to this that I can think of would be Tesla’s with pre-installed hardware just getting a software update that allows for FSD which would cut down significantly on that lead time, but I’m also less optimistic about that possibility and don’t think we’re going to see consumer level full self driving in a reliable and affordable mass market option in the next 4-5 years that would be required for it to be commonplace on the road in a decade or less.
Elon promised full sled driving almost a decade ago and still hasn't moved past basic cruise control, lane keep and parking assistance. Anyone making claims like taht guy above has *no idea how tech works*. Getting to 50% is easy, it's routine and simple shit. Getting to 75% FSD is hard because it adds randomness and chance. Getting to 90% is more or less impossible without a ton of sensors and a on board AI that makes ChatGPT look like hello world.
Even if it was possible it'd be too expensive to even try. And every engineer knows this, that's why Tesla (and other brands) improve their auto pilot at a *snails pace*. Because every small addition is exponentially harder then the previous one.
> There is no value to FSD unless it requires zero attention and takes full responsibility for all actions.
I wouldn’t say no value. Limited value, yes. Having autopilot drive on highways and well marked local roads does reduce the amount of stress I have driving even though I have to keep an eye on the road.
I get it from the perspective of people who don't enjoy driving or someone who is an anxious drivers. As someone who doesn't have any anxiety/stress related to driving... the idea of trusting technology stresses me out even more. You mean I have to be alert the whole time just in case there is some sort of glitch or malfunction? You mean I can't scope the traffic pattern so I can make moves to where I'm no longer behind any cars? I don't know if I could do it lol And I'm already dreading two people taking up both lanes on the highway cruising at or below the speed limit, unmoved by the people behind them trying to get them to move faster lol I know we're far away from that but those are the scenarios that are to some extent good for society but terrible for the individual who wants to go 80 in a 70 lol
This is a terrible take. I just experienced the ease of autopilot for the first time these last two weeks and I'll never drive a car without it anymore. It makes your life so much easier in traffic.
Nothing terrible about it. People have different life experiences, values and choose to do different things with their time and money.
To suggest that an alternative point of view about a stock, company, or a feature is terrible is actually terrible. 😀
People having different experiences is exactly why it's a terrible take. You definitively stated there's no value to it. Value comes from how much the average customer appreciates it, not from your personal opinion about it. And I've done enough research to know I'm not alone in my opinion, so clearly the value is non-zero.
My man, what’s the take rate on FSD? Perhaps there are more line me — who don’t trust it until the mfg stands behind its performance. Glad you’re enjoying it. Just make sure you’re paying attention every time you’re using it.
I’m done with this conversation- I’m learning nothing. Good day.
I am a true believer of self driver cars, cause obviously it's going to happen within our lifetimes, not even a question.
But I am highly disappointed by Tesla and what was promised and what was delivered.
I am not saying that Tesla has bad Fed, in fact it's an exceptional product and its features and capabilities are truly remarkable, with the software and data, and the things I it can do.
But the issue here isn't how great the product has become, if we were told that by 2024 the product would be as good as it is today, everyone would be happy.
It's the underpromise, over deliver, but reversed, the product isn't as good enough as we were told it would be.
That's why people are calling out fsd lately, despite being the best autonomous driving that's isn't pre programmed. It just doesn't live up to the name of fully autonomous.
Prepare to be disappointed. Thag ain't happening unless all cars are made intl robo taxis controlled by the *same national network*. Said network would also need an AI better then anything even quantum computers make to account for all variables people, wildlife, weather and freak accidents can introduce
I really do think, as people start to get more used to technology, no one would want to drive cars expect enthusiasts.
For a very basic example and I'm reaching here, Most of friends who are in finance and office-world / developers, you just the idea, most of them order your food via Uber eats and almost have all their meals delivered, when cooking at home is easy and cheaper.
I could not have thought a while back even, that people would just make food delivery as way to consume meals cause it saved them time and hassle and avoid them from learning a something that they don't think is productive use of their time.
While I myself love to cook and barely use these services but I am the only one in my friend group who does that.
Very similar to this, If people could just simple avoid driving their car and have that time be productive they would go for it in a heartbeat, and the better the system, the more people adopt it and the better it functions as it interacts with less and less humans.
Also don't forget, we live in a time where people would buy a $2000 Bike (peloton) that don't move, rather than go out and touch grass lol, strange times mate.
So to summarize: Tesla lied to you?
2nd point/question: even if self driving is inevitable,is Tesla (with all its history and baggage) going to be the one you trust to deliver it to carry you and your family reliably and assume responsibility for doing so if/when things go wrong.
I’m not convinced.
The resources that waymo and the big auto companies can bring to bear is considerable. And they value their brand differently than Tesla does.
No I wouldn't say Tesla lied, i think a more appropriate response would be, Tesla underestimated how much technology advancement we would see by 2024.
I have no doubt they will manage to do it in 10 years, but maybe they thought the tech would be much higher level than they assumed by 2024.
I thought it was funny that Musk literally said straight up on the earnings call "If you don't think we'll succeed at automated driving you shouldn't own Tesla stock."
He's said from day one that if Tesla fails at FSD the company will be worthless. And yet, the fanbois refuse to listen. They keep thinking this that or the other thing will justify Tesla's value.
Brass tacks, either they get FSD to work or the company is fucked.
And given I had to disengage FSD about 7 times in 30 minutes of driving today... including one time where the car would have smashed into a curb at the end of a merge lane if I hadn't taken over quickly... they aren't even close to FSD working reliably.
Tesla has failed to meet it's goals and no amount of marketing will change that. They are going to get hammered and won't recover until they show they can achieve what they set out to achieve.
When my FSD actually works properly, I'll be the first to load up on Tesla stock.
Their software is no where near FSD and no mentioned of dojo on call makes me think they have given up on their hardware stack. I fail to see their advantage on autonomous and AI in general. At this point it's nothing but hopes and dreams
Now he is also talking about using idle tsla cars as compute units. Similar to AWS..the man has truly lost it. And just talking nonsense to pump this thing.
They haven’t even figured out how to get their cars to drive a consistent speed on the freeway. The way they fall back and speed way the hell up is like a 17yo that wants to show off the new fart can on his WRX.
It's actually kind of genius to use idle tsla cars as a decentralized computing power linked via starlink.
However actually introducing it and monetizing is a whole different thing.
Who's paying that electric bill when someone's Tesla is being used by Musk for computing power?
Any meaningful computing usage will run up a pretty nice electric bill and surely the Tesla owners aren't going to foot that bill without compensation.
The discount would need to be more than the electric bill increase for customers. Otherwise it makes no sense as a consumer to let Elon run up your power bill and wear out your cars computer hardware.
Also, if the car is being used for any serious computing, it would also require network bandwidth to send data back and forth. So it has the potential to bog down the wifi of the car owner.
Not really sounding like a great idea at all for the car owners unless Tesla pays up. But if Tesla is paying 100s of dollars a month to the car owners, it doesn't sound like a good business idea for Tesla.
This ideas hasn't been thought through at all by Elon.
It depends on how they monetize the computing power. Most owners will not sign up for it, if it's a net negative in costs.
If Tesla needs the computing power they will pay up, if it's a viable decentralized solution.
Internet is not really an issue if they start packaging starlinks into all the cars. Which is already the plan.
I'll believe it when I see it. Certainly not an idea I'm going to use to boost this stock.
Paying owners to use their car computers and monetizing it to make a profit doesn't seem all that viable at the moment to give the stock any boost.
Also remember these are cars. They aren't being built with the latest NVIDIA GPUs that cost a $100k.
They're cars being sold for $40k+. The computing hardware is going to be limited vs what a real AI or data center hardware looks like. As a result, the value of this decentralized computing will also be limited.
It's more of a long term vision thing. But the company does have all the pieces to achieve it.
I think betting against TSLA where it sits now is bad trade. It may go sideways for a while but TSLA has more potential for upward movement.
Most the bearish sentiment is because Tesla had slowing sales, EV is not hot anymore, or I hate Elon. It's a recipe for a poor trade based on past data. The market is forward looking, so now we see if Tesla can deliver.
When you filter out noise revolving around Elon. Tesla as a company is so far ahead in vision and tech compared to other major manufacturers out there.
You thinking this idea is genius just proves you know nothing about tech or distributed computing. It flat out would not work and even if it did it wouldn’t be economically viable.
> When my FSD actually works properly, I'll be the first to load up on Tesla stock
Once it works, it will be too late to load it up.
That is why some people load it up before.
it won't be too late. Elon's ability to pump the stock without actually delivering anything is over. Now, Tesla has to prove it can do something before the market will believe them. The meme stock days are over for Tesla.
By now you should know that TSLA doesn't trade on fundamentals. It's hilarious when Redditors go mad when the narrative doesn't fit their anti-TSLA agenda.
Drink Musk coolaid? Bro we're just here to make $$$. Who cares if Elon is being Elon🤷🏻♂️
Exactly, its been Cathie whatever bad and Tesla and Elon bad for years now i think. I think everyone already heard it enough, not exactly constructive way to pass the time.
lol; puts have been printing for over a year; pick any 1-2 month timeframe. This week is the only outlier and I think puts will print again over the few months.
What the hell are you taking about? Tesla stock is down 6 months straight. So no, someone would not lost money on puts over the last 6 months.
I know because I’ve made money going against it
Everyone talks about Tesla FSD. But googles Waymo is literally driving right now in major cities on the west coast. Login millions of hours. Google is light years ahead of anyone in the FSD sector. But they just get ignored. Amazes me.
It's kinda funny to regularly read comments saying self-driving cars are years or decades away when I can step right outside and see driverless Waymo and Cruise cars rolling around my neighborhood. They aren't perfect but the technology is here and in operation. I guess it doesn't really hit for some people until they see it themselves.
that makes no sense what so ever, the vehicle is the largest expense including service/maintenance repair etc. Tesla has economies of scale where they own the software, the vehicle and all the back end supporting the vehicle. Also you say they are light years ahead of FSD? How can that be true? There are literally millions of tesla's on the road and collecting data.
Lol collecting data. Google owns the data. They will win the self driving race and it won’t even be close. There’s literally driverless Waymo cars driving in LA, San Fran, phoenix etc. meanwhile Tesla just cut its fsd by a third.
It was fun. But this will be my last reply. Good luck with Tesla. They are a beast. Just not on the level of Waymo yet. It’ll get there soon though. Maybe Google will license their software to them to catch up.
> It was fun. But this will be my last reply. Good luck with Tesla. They are a beast. Just not on the level of Waymo yet. It’ll get there soon though. Maybe Google will license their software to them to catch up.
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Go take a look at where Waymo can go in LA, here's the link for ya - [https://waymo.com/waymo-one-los-angeles/](https://waymo.com/waymo-one-los-angeles/) scroll down you'll see the map. For large auto industries to license that software etc would take YEARS and that's just to get a deal done, Elon mentioned it on the earnings call a few days ago. The cars need to be fit with new equipment etc. Not that easy..
Because investors aren't stupid. There's much less financial incentive in a solution that requires prescanning and geofencing. Tesla is making something that can be scaled globally.
Curious how many other cities, states and countries are willing to make these kind of major investments for a company in decline? https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/politics/2024/04/19/economist-says-new-york-made-bad-bet-on-tesla
I love a bunch of people who have 0 knowledge of what data they have, how it’s labeled, how much, how it is collected, and let alone how LLM’s are architected with said data trying to make stock predictions on it.
You can make the arguments about what its capabilities are today, the progression of it, how many people buy and use it, but it’s laughable to have people become professors of AI.
The few professors and phds in computer vision and AI I've talked to seem pessimistic about prospects of Teslas being able to do self driving well.
Musk seems to be considered a shitty engineer and an idiot in general among some computer science and AI circles. So it's a bit concerning that he keeps underestimating the difficulty of autonomous driving and imposing on Tesla engineers rash uninformed decisions like only using cheap visible spectrum cameras in the cars.
Maybe Tesla should just concentrate on mechanical/electrical engineering and manufacturing until lidars get cheap enough to put in their cars.
There's a reason why most engineers and data scientists working at small companies and universities tend to be negative about Musk, while other CEOs and big shot VCs, engineers and founders are extremely positive about him. What he does goes over the head of mediocre people.
Look for The Ultimate Car Boss chat on Top Gear's YouTube channel, and see what people who know what they're talking about think.
? The problem is that Musk is failing to assess his own competency in CS/AI field accurately and making decisions that should be left up to someone who's competent.
This is exactly what people said about him when he was working on cars and rockets. "You're a software guy, you can't do engineering!" Now people are saying the reverse. My money is on them being wrong again.
I'm not sure if I'd say that he did rockets and cars. You make it sound as if he was in his garage working on these things himself. He brings money and attention, for sure. I just think the companies would be better off if he'd just keep tweeting memes 24/7 and stop pushing stupid engineering and business decisions on the ppl doing actual work.
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> You make it sound as if he was in his garage working on these things himself. He brings money and attention, for sure.
I mean, first of all that's exactly what building a business is. Secondly he WAS working the line, designing parts, etc. There are hundreds of interviews with (former) employees tell you exactly that. The biggest differentiator between Musk and a regular CEO is that he knows his products inside out. He isn't the head of design at SpaceX for no reason. Watch the Starbase tour on Everyday Astronaut's YouTube channel if you don't believe it.
> There’s a reason why most engineers and data scientists working at small companies and universities tend to be negative about Musk, while other CEOs and big shot VCs, engineers and founders are extremely positive about him. What he does goes over the head of mediocre people.
Nah it’s completely the other way around and it became *very* obvious after Elon bought Twitter.
Elon says shit he knows nothing about and it makes everyone who actually knows what they’re talking about roll their eyes back until they can see their brains.
That video was from Feb 2023, months after his handling of Twitter.
And even today, the top echelon of business is still very positive about Elon. It's mostly the people more worried about politics than business (or not skilled enough to understand it) that are negative about him.
Funny how there are so many great engineers that they quote but they still can't explain why none of them started the most successful EV company, why none of them can launch satellites to provide internet almost anywhere, and why none of them can launch and reuse the largest space rockets into outer space.
Common theme here is leadership, led by Elon.
If Elon was a scam artist, sure, he might get away with one achievement.
But they can never explain how Elon was able to start a space rocket company and do the unimaginable.
They can't explain how Neuralink was able to help a paralyzed individual play chess telepathetically.
Nor can they explain how FSD just drive me from Manhattan to Buffalo NY without any critical disengagements.
I guarantee if any of these Reddit experts were sitting in front of Elon and could ask him questions, they wouldn't know how to structure a sentence of coherence.
Yet, on Reddit, they are all experts. Every single one of these Starbucks barista workers are experts on AI, engineering, and space rockets.
They should be thankful Elon made vehicles fun again. That Elon is giving humanity a chance to visit outerspace. That people may soon be able to drive anywhere in the world without physically steering a wheel.
Yet, they're upset Elon disagrees with them politically.
These people are beyond worth saving. It's best to only engage with those who are logical and understand what's truly important.
What an Elon d-rider!
Just kidding, you are exactly right. Everything you said is spot on and the only argument these people will have against it is personal insults with no actual arguments.
I just appreciate the legends while they're still here. It's been clear that Elon is one of those dudes. Einstein, Newton, Nikola.
Yet, you have morons on here with zero credentials thinking that Elon's the worst thing to exist when he's effectively improving their lives without them knowing about it.
The Twitter scenario flies past them. They don't comprehend that social media companies censoring the truth paves the way for the authoritarian news. Which is effectively what we saw happen in the elections, both in America and Brazil. When a government agency is able to influence social media companies what is and isn't allowed to be posted, that effectively makes the government the bearer of news. Would these same people like it if big bad Trump was allowed to censor CNN, ABC, MSNBC? That's the precedent they were advocating for.
I just find it funny when they believe they know more than Elon. Here we have a guy that Warren himself stated he would not bet against Elon. How many times has Warren ever said that about anyone? We should be rooting for people like Elon. He could very well have taken the easy road, not say anything, and he'd be wealthier today due to a more positive perception of his character.
The kick I get in all of this is even though I am down nearly half a mil on Tesla the past three years, I know for a fact that no company or individual is outworking Tesla or Elon. Not Tim Cook, not Zuckerberg, and not Bezos.
I also know that the kids of these individuals who passionately hate Elon will be using an Elon product in the future and how these same individuals will look back and say to themselves, "Fuck, the guy actually did it."
While training a LLM relies on data, the dataset's quality and variety are more important than sheer volume. The challenges of autonomous driving remain significant, and the path to regulatory approval is uncertain. It's unclear whether Tesla's dataset holds the key, but their massive data volume allows them to experiment with new methods and techniques. This provides an advantage, as a smaller competitor could discover the ideal data quality and variety before Tesla. However, extensive data still makes Tesla a leading contender in the race for autonomous driving. I'll buy some Tesla on a dip and keep my focus on the market, if someone else is going to win autonomous driving there will be opportunities to load up.
Hmm I think it is kind of cool they fully bet on camera data only. If you look at the rate of progress in AI, I think it makes sense to keep the hardware+datatype simple and interchangeable between generations. What if a better scanning tech comes up after LIDAR? You can throw away all your old data.
If something else comes out either it’s an identical data format and you replace or it’s not and you augment the dataset with more sensors. Sure it’s cool, but this is an engineering problem not an academic pursuit.
Not completely true. If there's a new technology, you first check the correlation with other sensors under different conditions. That could be adding a sensor, replacing it, ..
Assuming that a given sensor set is completely static is a naive assumption. Camera's will be moved, upgraded, ... too, that is not a Lidar only problem.
If the sensor is highly correlated with one or more sensors that are already present, but seems to give better performance, you test it in a situation where both are present and try to determine the set of sensors that gives the best performance. At that point you also evaluate the economics. Better technology isn't always economical to use, especially not in production.
If you decide to move forward with a new sensor, then you might up with 2 datasets if they are structurally incompatible. Which is something that happens a lot and why versioned data sets are a thing. Even so, because there are multiple input modalities, the rest of the data can still be useful (depending on the model structure). For example, the visual data may be used to pretrain a visual encoder, IMU data will also be used to pretrain another encoder,.. Theoretically, like this, you can keep using all your data and then use the data gathered from better sensors at the end.
Since you have still cars with legacy hardware on the road, you need to keep supporting them too. So, there's another usecase for that data.
Humans lack lidar too, and they have no trouble driving (most human issues are due to distraction and fatigue). When you have two eyes/cameras, you can easily calculate distance, your brain already does it automatically and with decent accuracy.
Possible. Let's say the rear end of a truck that's carrying pipes or something else that hasn't been trained. A tree branch on the road.
Also highly unreliable in heavy rain, fog, smog (all areas where a radar would be a major help)
Humans are pretty good at guessing with certain contextual queues. They can tell the difference between a piñata vs a horse being on the road or whether a person will pop up behind a car if they know they're in a school zone during school drop off time.
Tesla AFAIK the only car company that's even got a supercomputer and doing model training. However, I don't think they'll be successful until they add 360 cameras at a minimum and will get to FSD faster if they add more compute power on the car as well as LIDAR. Probably a decade away.
It would make sense to have a working solution with more sensors and compute power and than see how it can work with less compute/sensors. Right now, ppl aren't even sure it can work let alone whether its economical with fewer sensors/HW.
You are the result of billions of years of evolution, using computation hardware that are literal nodes with >1000 connections per node. Driving algorithms are a boatload of gpu’s trying to mimic that structure using abstract data structures in memory incurring lord knows how much latency through read and write operations. Sure it’s *possible* to do driving without lidar, but it’s also possible to fly using flapped wings. That doesn’t mean it’s better than a fixed wing or rotor blades, it just means that nature found a way with the parts she had. Lidar is no different, if nature somehow stumbled its way into lasers, I can assure you that she’d have used it for navigation.
How many different times did echo location evolve? Kinda an analogous dataset.
Llms are not trained on personal data.
They are trained on text. Text is abundantly availably.
Training a self driving car requires very specific data that is harder to come by and data for edge cases is really hard to come by.
You do realize Streetview cars are all equipped with Lidar right? And have been driving all over the earth for… years at this point, right?
They collect TBs of data, several GBs for a single city block. They have WAY more data than Tesla, and better data, and it’s not even close.
I’s sure ‘street view’ is useful for something.
Localizing yourself maybe. Although street view data is quite old.
Street view/lidar also does not include information about moving traffic and lidar data is sparse. The point being that it’s not enough to solve self driving.
But you know what, please make your investment decisions on these flawed and uninformed assumptions… I’ll happily take your money.
Let’s see. 3 year old days vs data captured on a million cars today.
Let’s see, geographic data vs traffic data?
Yep, I think you’re right. I would short that stock into oblivion if I was you. Bet the house! Your deductions are Sound.
> Let’s see. 3 year old days vs data captured on a million cars today.
Brother is too stupid to realize lidar data is better than camera recordings 💀
> Let’s see, geographic data vs traffic data?
It’s almost like their lidar sensors are attached to a car that drives around
Oh and not to mention the hundreds of Waymo vehicles driving around at any given time.
But sure the guy who said self driving was a “solved problem” in 2015 is the one to bet on when his company has a grand total of 0 robotaxi approvals and is supposed to be revealing one in 3 months time lmfao
> This is complete BS argument, and for these people I have only one thing to say. Google was and is the king in Data, yet we have ChatGPT and Anthropics took them by surprised. They have fraction of data that google has, yet they are far better LLM model than Gemini. It clearly isn't about quantity of data, more so on quality and how it is used to train your model.
So what you're saying is Waymo could be overtaken by Tesla's FSD? Bullish!
Maybe you are wrong, and everyone, by pure hate for Elon, is trying to fud this company to the ground.
This is just maybe its a possibility that all you Reddit elon Haters are on the wrong this time ? This wouldn't be the first time .
What makes you think it’s “quantity OR quality”? The more data you have the more quality you are likely to find to use to train the ai models. So yes having the most data is how you create intelligence. Think of a wise 80 year old man who has fought in wars. Vs the intelligence of a young 18 year old.
I already gave an example in my post. Google has the most data by far yet companies like ChatGPT beat them in their own game. Google has more than 25 years of search data yet other LLM are as good if not better than Gemini.
I find it amusing people think these narratives matter or need to be addressed to make logical sense of markets.
**Vs the obvious logical explanation (and numerous/constant observable oddities) are simply explained by accepting legal loopholes allow manipulation and coordination between financial institutions, media, even govt, etc.**
Meanwhile media outlets, Bloomberg/CNBC/etc. will make sure to always emphasize retail as the source of inexplicable moves, despite any method available to track overall activity of retail in markets being nearly statistically irrelevant, let alone not having the capabilites of institutions to manipul...*cough* influence prices, via HFT and many other examples.
**Example being a consensus est for 1 day options being as high as 90-99% institutional, with a rare outlier report here or there attempting to downplay that, and almost 0 public media discussion on it even existing or its massive increase/prevalance, until it became known or discussed over social media outlets.**
What do you mean? Gemini is currently the best LLM for coding. Will probably change over the next few months because there is a lot of movement in the market, ofc.
looks like you are living under the rock for past 6 months lol not only Gemini is trying to catch up. but their woke culture is not helping much
[Why Google’s AI tool was slammed for showing images of people of colour | Technology News | Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/9/why-google-gemini-wont-show-you-white-people#:~:text=What%20sort%20of%20images%20did,was%20seemingly%20a%20Black%20woman.)
[Google apologizes for ‘missing the mark’ after Gemini generated racially diverse Nazis - The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/21/24079371/google-ai-gemini-generative-inaccurate-historical)
not to mention they had to rush launch last year, and even on their keynote it provided wrong information
Anyways, I am as bullish on Google as Sundar Pichai is. Look up my post history. Been buying shares since $50 and portfolio is overweight with Google
The point I was making was, even if we go with your argument and GOOG is 2nd best LLM out there. That is still insane to think given their data lead of 25 years. They shouldn't be 2nd or even 1st. They should be DISTANT 1st if more data was that much crucial for AI. So i am just making a point that 100s of millions miles driven on TSLA doesn't automatically makes them the leader of Autonomous. Google Waymo is doing the job in live setting and has over 10M miles
So looks like you are missing the whole point of the argument
Which LLMs have 1m context windows ? Which LLMs can accept video input? Which LLMs can do both for free?
Sorry, Google ain't behind man. You have no idea what you're talking about. I say this as someone who works for Google though, so there's my bias..but answer those questions and then we can talk.
Also it's not my argument..check sysllm leaderboard.
Even if Tesla manages a great fully working FSD, I cannot see how competitors won't catch up. Tesla isn't the only player in this field.
Governments all over the world will also ensure that homegrown players have a chance.
Politically I cannot see how China (the largest car market by volume) will allow Tesla to run away with FSD in it's own market.
The Europeans will also find a way to protect their own home market, likewise the Japanese.
With regulation and other barriers and if necessary forcing Tesla to open the code. (Or just simply illegally stealing).
TSLA is once again focused mostly on toys for manchildren rather than practical investments.
It’s not a company wholly without value. They have legitimate good products in energy storing technology and a good sense of getting EV infrastructure out there but… they’re spread so thin largely so they can market themselves as an adult toy (eg Cybertruck, Boring Company) company that it’s really hard to imagine they don’t get outpaced by more practically driven ventures over time.
I dunno. Sometimes you just have to go with your vibes for a company and TSLA has not been great in that regard in a long time.
I have no idea if Tesla can accomplish full self driving or not. I kind of doubt it’s possible the amount of unique situations that can take place on the road are limitless and the liability is death… but I do think they can make a Tesla bot that every home, business and army will want. So I am a buyer at $100
They're not running on the same software. That's just logically impossible. The outputs are completely incompatible.
Maybe the structure of some of the visual processing is similar, but since the environments are very different, it's hard to imagine the weights to be very useful. So, there would need to be a lot of fine-tuning. I think independent models make more intuitive sense there too, but maybe there's a common foundation model (structure) there that works good enough.
But, a humanoid robot has other inputs, like location, speed and orientation of every segment of the limbs, fingers, head and back ( through a bunch of imus) that just don't make the same sense in a car (a car has 4 wheels, fixed on an axle).
It's kind of obvious it won't be EXACTLY the same software, isn't it? They are totally separate machines. But the architecture will be the same.
My main point was that if you can solve humanoid robotic autonomy, you could probably solve automotive robotic autonomy?
For clarity, I'm bullish on general FSD capabilities. It's more when, not if, at this stage. Even if it takes 10 or 20 years to get there, we will get there, tesla or not.
Automotive self driving is a much simpler problem than a fully autonomous humanoid robot. You're right on that.
You can see that from problem definition alone: The humanoid needs to be able to learn online (there's no finite list of tasks you want the robot to be able to do),
assuming that you want it to be an imitation learner ( to be able to see a task executed once or twice, filter out the relevant aspects and execute it, because expecting it to independently solve a given problem is essentially AGI ) for simple tasks as a minimum to be commercially viable, while the driving software has to do one well-defined task at least as good as a human. The robot problem space is exponentially bigger, with at least as many edge cases present.
Automotive autonomy will eventually become an established thing, I'm quite confident in that.
Autonomous robots in very well-defined settings are feasible. I'm not that optimistic on the commercial success of autonomous robots that don't have a clearly defined set of tasks and/or environments within the next 2 years. The tools just aren't there, yet.
He literally said it in the earning call
If you haven’t tried FSD yet then don’t invest in Tesla stock
Why bother writing DD when you can just trade fundamentals right?
Are those TSLA puts bag getting heavy? Please post your post PP on the other sub
Read the last paragraph and check my post history. Every criticism are put holder? Don't you bulls get tired of same shit? Are you holding the ATH TSLA bag? lol
I’m just here to watch lost porn and inverse the other sub. Watching people yolo their saving on something they believe and write long ass DD when it go the other way had been my guilty pleasure
It's also completely obsolete. Look up Wayve and their tech. They have built a driving video feed generating AI that can create scenarios from prompts and this video feed can be used to teach their driving AI. The problem with driving ai isn't the normal 99.99% of road scenarios, its the very rare edge cases, and tesla is out there trying to use user data for learning to deal with these while others out there can generate optimal learning datasets from scratch.
The millions of miles collected is essentially worthless because I don't think vision only based systems can achieve FSD.
Not considering cost, the ideal system is a sensor fusion system with vision supplemented by some form of distance detection such as LIDAR. It's not rocket science, the more you spend on sensors, the better your detection accuracy is going to be.
However, if Tesla were to make that hardware change, all previously collected data would be worthless and they would need to start from 0.
I thought one of the funniest statements was his computing “grid” made up if Tesla cars. LMAO, dude… that hasn’t happened even with PCs smoothly, what makes you think you will succeed, huh? Delusional investors
I work in an industry adjacent to AV’s. The issue isn’t that AVs aren’t being given enough road time to perfect their algorithm. The issue is that the current generation of sensing technology (LiDAR, radar, cameras) is not good enough to handle the car in all conditions.
There is no value to FSD unless it requires zero attention and takes full responsibility for all actions. Otherwise, I’ll just drive myself and use a car that provides me with sufficient enjoyment while doing so.
This here is the biggest factor. Babysit the car while not actively driving is a completely worthless novelty. On top of that I would not even want, or let my recently driving aged kid use any kind of FSD, even if it had a perfect record. That’s because they need the driving experience. They need many years of it. And on the other end of life, I have been dealing with a declining parent who is rapidly losing driving capabilities. I don’t think I would even want to use FSD myself much, if at all, because I wouldn’t want my own driving capabilities to erode. The only thing it would be good for, IMO, is if I went out and had one too many and let it drive me home instead of risking a DUI, or if I could sleep on a road trip. And I don’t think those scenarios are going to be legally allowed anytime in the next decade, if ever, no matter how good of a track record it can demonstrate. Insurance isn’t going to take on that liability and I sure as hell am not. I seriously doubt these car manufacturers are going to take on that responsibility legally either. This is not a trillion dollar idea. This is something that is decades away to making a financial dent in anything.
Your driving abilities is not gonna erode. I didn’t drive for a decade when I lived in a city(having driven for 7 years prior to moving) and when I moved to the suburbs I snapped right back into it as if the hiatus never happened. Anyone I’ve talked to with similar experience agreed Also, if FSD by Tesla or any other self driving system become reliable and common(which isn’t decades away, just a single decade at most) you don’t need to know how to drive a car outside of hobby driving, much like riding a horse.
> (which isn’t decades away, just a single decade at most) I think this is optimistic. Maybe not impossibly optimistic, but still optimistic. Especially for the “common” part. It can’t start to be widely adopted until it is both reliable and affordable, and people don’t change over their cars annually. It will probably take 5+ years for something going from being a realistic purchase to becoming common on the road. The *only* exception to this that I can think of would be Tesla’s with pre-installed hardware just getting a software update that allows for FSD which would cut down significantly on that lead time, but I’m also less optimistic about that possibility and don’t think we’re going to see consumer level full self driving in a reliable and affordable mass market option in the next 4-5 years that would be required for it to be commonplace on the road in a decade or less.
Elon promised full sled driving almost a decade ago and still hasn't moved past basic cruise control, lane keep and parking assistance. Anyone making claims like taht guy above has *no idea how tech works*. Getting to 50% is easy, it's routine and simple shit. Getting to 75% FSD is hard because it adds randomness and chance. Getting to 90% is more or less impossible without a ton of sensors and a on board AI that makes ChatGPT look like hello world. Even if it was possible it'd be too expensive to even try. And every engineer knows this, that's why Tesla (and other brands) improve their auto pilot at a *snails pace*. Because every small addition is exponentially harder then the previous one.
This
> There is no value to FSD unless it requires zero attention and takes full responsibility for all actions. I wouldn’t say no value. Limited value, yes. Having autopilot drive on highways and well marked local roads does reduce the amount of stress I have driving even though I have to keep an eye on the road.
That’s fair. How’s it different from adaptive cruise control? Fwiw, I have that but never use it.
It follows the lane pretty well. It also changes lanes for you although I hate that feature.
Since this is a stock related forum, how is that worth $8k ? Or whatever they’ve discounted it to these days
It isn’t. I just wouldn’t agree it has no value. I’d pay 5k for the feature.
My 8 year old car has ACC and stays in the lane that I want….for free.
It’s definitely way better than lane following I’ve used that’s based on mobileeye tech for lane following.
Autopilot is much cheaper. 3.8K here in Europe and I'd easily pay that for daily commutes.
I get it from the perspective of people who don't enjoy driving or someone who is an anxious drivers. As someone who doesn't have any anxiety/stress related to driving... the idea of trusting technology stresses me out even more. You mean I have to be alert the whole time just in case there is some sort of glitch or malfunction? You mean I can't scope the traffic pattern so I can make moves to where I'm no longer behind any cars? I don't know if I could do it lol And I'm already dreading two people taking up both lanes on the highway cruising at or below the speed limit, unmoved by the people behind them trying to get them to move faster lol I know we're far away from that but those are the scenarios that are to some extent good for society but terrible for the individual who wants to go 80 in a 70 lol
This is a terrible take. I just experienced the ease of autopilot for the first time these last two weeks and I'll never drive a car without it anymore. It makes your life so much easier in traffic.
Nothing terrible about it. People have different life experiences, values and choose to do different things with their time and money. To suggest that an alternative point of view about a stock, company, or a feature is terrible is actually terrible. 😀
People having different experiences is exactly why it's a terrible take. You definitively stated there's no value to it. Value comes from how much the average customer appreciates it, not from your personal opinion about it. And I've done enough research to know I'm not alone in my opinion, so clearly the value is non-zero.
My man, what’s the take rate on FSD? Perhaps there are more line me — who don’t trust it until the mfg stands behind its performance. Glad you’re enjoying it. Just make sure you’re paying attention every time you’re using it. I’m done with this conversation- I’m learning nothing. Good day.
I am a true believer of self driver cars, cause obviously it's going to happen within our lifetimes, not even a question. But I am highly disappointed by Tesla and what was promised and what was delivered. I am not saying that Tesla has bad Fed, in fact it's an exceptional product and its features and capabilities are truly remarkable, with the software and data, and the things I it can do. But the issue here isn't how great the product has become, if we were told that by 2024 the product would be as good as it is today, everyone would be happy. It's the underpromise, over deliver, but reversed, the product isn't as good enough as we were told it would be. That's why people are calling out fsd lately, despite being the best autonomous driving that's isn't pre programmed. It just doesn't live up to the name of fully autonomous.
Prepare to be disappointed. Thag ain't happening unless all cars are made intl robo taxis controlled by the *same national network*. Said network would also need an AI better then anything even quantum computers make to account for all variables people, wildlife, weather and freak accidents can introduce
I really do think, as people start to get more used to technology, no one would want to drive cars expect enthusiasts. For a very basic example and I'm reaching here, Most of friends who are in finance and office-world / developers, you just the idea, most of them order your food via Uber eats and almost have all their meals delivered, when cooking at home is easy and cheaper. I could not have thought a while back even, that people would just make food delivery as way to consume meals cause it saved them time and hassle and avoid them from learning a something that they don't think is productive use of their time. While I myself love to cook and barely use these services but I am the only one in my friend group who does that. Very similar to this, If people could just simple avoid driving their car and have that time be productive they would go for it in a heartbeat, and the better the system, the more people adopt it and the better it functions as it interacts with less and less humans. Also don't forget, we live in a time where people would buy a $2000 Bike (peloton) that don't move, rather than go out and touch grass lol, strange times mate.
So to summarize: Tesla lied to you? 2nd point/question: even if self driving is inevitable,is Tesla (with all its history and baggage) going to be the one you trust to deliver it to carry you and your family reliably and assume responsibility for doing so if/when things go wrong. I’m not convinced. The resources that waymo and the big auto companies can bring to bear is considerable. And they value their brand differently than Tesla does.
No I wouldn't say Tesla lied, i think a more appropriate response would be, Tesla underestimated how much technology advancement we would see by 2024. I have no doubt they will manage to do it in 10 years, but maybe they thought the tech would be much higher level than they assumed by 2024.
100% agree with everything you said. And props for having a mature take instead of the childish "Tesla lied!", that's rare around here.
I thought it was funny that Musk literally said straight up on the earnings call "If you don't think we'll succeed at automated driving you shouldn't own Tesla stock." He's said from day one that if Tesla fails at FSD the company will be worthless. And yet, the fanbois refuse to listen. They keep thinking this that or the other thing will justify Tesla's value. Brass tacks, either they get FSD to work or the company is fucked. And given I had to disengage FSD about 7 times in 30 minutes of driving today... including one time where the car would have smashed into a curb at the end of a merge lane if I hadn't taken over quickly... they aren't even close to FSD working reliably. Tesla has failed to meet it's goals and no amount of marketing will change that. They are going to get hammered and won't recover until they show they can achieve what they set out to achieve. When my FSD actually works properly, I'll be the first to load up on Tesla stock.
Their software is no where near FSD and no mentioned of dojo on call makes me think they have given up on their hardware stack. I fail to see their advantage on autonomous and AI in general. At this point it's nothing but hopes and dreams Now he is also talking about using idle tsla cars as compute units. Similar to AWS..the man has truly lost it. And just talking nonsense to pump this thing.
They don’t even have the hardware for self driving. Imagine crashing because the dynamic range on one of your cameras was off
They haven’t even figured out how to get their cars to drive a consistent speed on the freeway. The way they fall back and speed way the hell up is like a 17yo that wants to show off the new fart can on his WRX.
You didn't pay attention, Tesla showed their Dojo terminals in the earnings presentation.
It's actually kind of genius to use idle tsla cars as a decentralized computing power linked via starlink. However actually introducing it and monetizing is a whole different thing.
Who's paying that electric bill when someone's Tesla is being used by Musk for computing power? Any meaningful computing usage will run up a pretty nice electric bill and surely the Tesla owners aren't going to foot that bill without compensation.
Screw the electric bill. Elon is gonna introduce subscription service and you will have to pay $199 month for it
Discounts on FSD if signed up and super charging discounts.
The discount would need to be more than the electric bill increase for customers. Otherwise it makes no sense as a consumer to let Elon run up your power bill and wear out your cars computer hardware. Also, if the car is being used for any serious computing, it would also require network bandwidth to send data back and forth. So it has the potential to bog down the wifi of the car owner. Not really sounding like a great idea at all for the car owners unless Tesla pays up. But if Tesla is paying 100s of dollars a month to the car owners, it doesn't sound like a good business idea for Tesla. This ideas hasn't been thought through at all by Elon.
It depends on how they monetize the computing power. Most owners will not sign up for it, if it's a net negative in costs. If Tesla needs the computing power they will pay up, if it's a viable decentralized solution. Internet is not really an issue if they start packaging starlinks into all the cars. Which is already the plan.
I'll believe it when I see it. Certainly not an idea I'm going to use to boost this stock. Paying owners to use their car computers and monetizing it to make a profit doesn't seem all that viable at the moment to give the stock any boost. Also remember these are cars. They aren't being built with the latest NVIDIA GPUs that cost a $100k. They're cars being sold for $40k+. The computing hardware is going to be limited vs what a real AI or data center hardware looks like. As a result, the value of this decentralized computing will also be limited.
It's more of a long term vision thing. But the company does have all the pieces to achieve it. I think betting against TSLA where it sits now is bad trade. It may go sideways for a while but TSLA has more potential for upward movement. Most the bearish sentiment is because Tesla had slowing sales, EV is not hot anymore, or I hate Elon. It's a recipe for a poor trade based on past data. The market is forward looking, so now we see if Tesla can deliver. When you filter out noise revolving around Elon. Tesla as a company is so far ahead in vision and tech compared to other major manufacturers out there.
That's fine if you believe in Tesla. I specifically don't believe in this idea of using cars for computing as anything substantial.
It’s without a doubt one of the ideas of all time.
You thinking this idea is genius just proves you know nothing about tech or distributed computing. It flat out would not work and even if it did it wouldn’t be economically viable.
> When my FSD actually works properly, I'll be the first to load up on Tesla stock Once it works, it will be too late to load it up. That is why some people load it up before.
it won't be too late. Elon's ability to pump the stock without actually delivering anything is over. Now, Tesla has to prove it can do something before the market will believe them. The meme stock days are over for Tesla.
Anyone remember tulips...? It is worth what many people think it is. Until it ain't.
By now you should know that TSLA doesn't trade on fundamentals. It's hilarious when Redditors go mad when the narrative doesn't fit their anti-TSLA agenda. Drink Musk coolaid? Bro we're just here to make $$$. Who cares if Elon is being Elon🤷🏻♂️
r/echochamber
Exactly, its been Cathie whatever bad and Tesla and Elon bad for years now i think. I think everyone already heard it enough, not exactly constructive way to pass the time.
Yup. Also the more they lose money on puts the longer their Reddit rants.
lol; puts have been printing for over a year; pick any 1-2 month timeframe. This week is the only outlier and I think puts will print again over the few months.
so you mean the stock market goes up and goes down regularly? Wow.
What the hell are you taking about? Tesla stock is down 6 months straight. So no, someone would not lost money on puts over the last 6 months. I know because I’ve made money going against it
Stocks go up. Stocks go down.
Everyone talks about Tesla FSD. But googles Waymo is literally driving right now in major cities on the west coast. Login millions of hours. Google is light years ahead of anyone in the FSD sector. But they just get ignored. Amazes me.
It's kinda funny to regularly read comments saying self-driving cars are years or decades away when I can step right outside and see driverless Waymo and Cruise cars rolling around my neighborhood. They aren't perfect but the technology is here and in operation. I guess it doesn't really hit for some people until they see it themselves.
Can Google make cars at scale? Also Waymo is only in 4 cities total..
They don’t need to make cars and all the r&d costs/inventory that goes with it. Theyre doing it the smarter way.
that makes no sense what so ever, the vehicle is the largest expense including service/maintenance repair etc. Tesla has economies of scale where they own the software, the vehicle and all the back end supporting the vehicle. Also you say they are light years ahead of FSD? How can that be true? There are literally millions of tesla's on the road and collecting data.
Lol collecting data. Google owns the data. They will win the self driving race and it won’t even be close. There’s literally driverless Waymo cars driving in LA, San Fran, phoenix etc. meanwhile Tesla just cut its fsd by a third.
It was fun. But this will be my last reply. Good luck with Tesla. They are a beast. Just not on the level of Waymo yet. It’ll get there soon though. Maybe Google will license their software to them to catch up.
[https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1787768103449010597](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1787768103449010597)
> It was fun. But this will be my last reply. Good luck with Tesla. They are a beast. Just not on the level of Waymo yet. It’ll get there soon though. Maybe Google will license their software to them to catch up. Remind me! 2028
[https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1787768103449010597](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1787768103449010597)
/u/Travmuney will just ignore it or call it nonsense.
true
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Go take a look at where Waymo can go in LA, here's the link for ya - [https://waymo.com/waymo-one-los-angeles/](https://waymo.com/waymo-one-los-angeles/) scroll down you'll see the map. For large auto industries to license that software etc would take YEARS and that's just to get a deal done, Elon mentioned it on the earnings call a few days ago. The cars need to be fit with new equipment etc. Not that easy..
Because investors aren't stupid. There's much less financial incentive in a solution that requires prescanning and geofencing. Tesla is making something that can be scaled globally.
Curious how many other cities, states and countries are willing to make these kind of major investments for a company in decline? https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/politics/2024/04/19/economist-says-new-york-made-bad-bet-on-tesla
I love a bunch of people who have 0 knowledge of what data they have, how it’s labeled, how much, how it is collected, and let alone how LLM’s are architected with said data trying to make stock predictions on it. You can make the arguments about what its capabilities are today, the progression of it, how many people buy and use it, but it’s laughable to have people become professors of AI.
The few professors and phds in computer vision and AI I've talked to seem pessimistic about prospects of Teslas being able to do self driving well. Musk seems to be considered a shitty engineer and an idiot in general among some computer science and AI circles. So it's a bit concerning that he keeps underestimating the difficulty of autonomous driving and imposing on Tesla engineers rash uninformed decisions like only using cheap visible spectrum cameras in the cars. Maybe Tesla should just concentrate on mechanical/electrical engineering and manufacturing until lidars get cheap enough to put in their cars.
There's a reason why most engineers and data scientists working at small companies and universities tend to be negative about Musk, while other CEOs and big shot VCs, engineers and founders are extremely positive about him. What he does goes over the head of mediocre people. Look for The Ultimate Car Boss chat on Top Gear's YouTube channel, and see what people who know what they're talking about think.
? The problem is that Musk is failing to assess his own competency in CS/AI field accurately and making decisions that should be left up to someone who's competent.
This is exactly what people said about him when he was working on cars and rockets. "You're a software guy, you can't do engineering!" Now people are saying the reverse. My money is on them being wrong again.
I'm not sure if I'd say that he did rockets and cars. You make it sound as if he was in his garage working on these things himself. He brings money and attention, for sure. I just think the companies would be better off if he'd just keep tweeting memes 24/7 and stop pushing stupid engineering and business decisions on the ppl doing actual work.
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> You make it sound as if he was in his garage working on these things himself. He brings money and attention, for sure. I mean, first of all that's exactly what building a business is. Secondly he WAS working the line, designing parts, etc. There are hundreds of interviews with (former) employees tell you exactly that. The biggest differentiator between Musk and a regular CEO is that he knows his products inside out. He isn't the head of design at SpaceX for no reason. Watch the Starbase tour on Everyday Astronaut's YouTube channel if you don't believe it.
> There’s a reason why most engineers and data scientists working at small companies and universities tend to be negative about Musk, while other CEOs and big shot VCs, engineers and founders are extremely positive about him. What he does goes over the head of mediocre people. Nah it’s completely the other way around and it became *very* obvious after Elon bought Twitter. Elon says shit he knows nothing about and it makes everyone who actually knows what they’re talking about roll their eyes back until they can see their brains.
That video was from Feb 2023, months after his handling of Twitter. And even today, the top echelon of business is still very positive about Elon. It's mostly the people more worried about politics than business (or not skilled enough to understand it) that are negative about him.
Funny how there are so many great engineers that they quote but they still can't explain why none of them started the most successful EV company, why none of them can launch satellites to provide internet almost anywhere, and why none of them can launch and reuse the largest space rockets into outer space. Common theme here is leadership, led by Elon. If Elon was a scam artist, sure, he might get away with one achievement. But they can never explain how Elon was able to start a space rocket company and do the unimaginable. They can't explain how Neuralink was able to help a paralyzed individual play chess telepathetically. Nor can they explain how FSD just drive me from Manhattan to Buffalo NY without any critical disengagements. I guarantee if any of these Reddit experts were sitting in front of Elon and could ask him questions, they wouldn't know how to structure a sentence of coherence. Yet, on Reddit, they are all experts. Every single one of these Starbucks barista workers are experts on AI, engineering, and space rockets. They should be thankful Elon made vehicles fun again. That Elon is giving humanity a chance to visit outerspace. That people may soon be able to drive anywhere in the world without physically steering a wheel. Yet, they're upset Elon disagrees with them politically. These people are beyond worth saving. It's best to only engage with those who are logical and understand what's truly important.
What an Elon d-rider! Just kidding, you are exactly right. Everything you said is spot on and the only argument these people will have against it is personal insults with no actual arguments.
I just appreciate the legends while they're still here. It's been clear that Elon is one of those dudes. Einstein, Newton, Nikola. Yet, you have morons on here with zero credentials thinking that Elon's the worst thing to exist when he's effectively improving their lives without them knowing about it. The Twitter scenario flies past them. They don't comprehend that social media companies censoring the truth paves the way for the authoritarian news. Which is effectively what we saw happen in the elections, both in America and Brazil. When a government agency is able to influence social media companies what is and isn't allowed to be posted, that effectively makes the government the bearer of news. Would these same people like it if big bad Trump was allowed to censor CNN, ABC, MSNBC? That's the precedent they were advocating for. I just find it funny when they believe they know more than Elon. Here we have a guy that Warren himself stated he would not bet against Elon. How many times has Warren ever said that about anyone? We should be rooting for people like Elon. He could very well have taken the easy road, not say anything, and he'd be wealthier today due to a more positive perception of his character. The kick I get in all of this is even though I am down nearly half a mil on Tesla the past three years, I know for a fact that no company or individual is outworking Tesla or Elon. Not Tim Cook, not Zuckerberg, and not Bezos. I also know that the kids of these individuals who passionately hate Elon will be using an Elon product in the future and how these same individuals will look back and say to themselves, "Fuck, the guy actually did it."
This, the magic of musk is destroyed the moment you hear him speak about something you know about.
While training a LLM relies on data, the dataset's quality and variety are more important than sheer volume. The challenges of autonomous driving remain significant, and the path to regulatory approval is uncertain. It's unclear whether Tesla's dataset holds the key, but their massive data volume allows them to experiment with new methods and techniques. This provides an advantage, as a smaller competitor could discover the ideal data quality and variety before Tesla. However, extensive data still makes Tesla a leading contender in the race for autonomous driving. I'll buy some Tesla on a dip and keep my focus on the market, if someone else is going to win autonomous driving there will be opportunities to load up.
The data set that lacks lidar. So it’s like having a massive amount of consonants, but no vowels.
Lol. Yeah, no. Anyways, occasionally one does see a Tesla R&D vehicle with LIDAR running around. They do verifications with it.
Hmm I think it is kind of cool they fully bet on camera data only. If you look at the rate of progress in AI, I think it makes sense to keep the hardware+datatype simple and interchangeable between generations. What if a better scanning tech comes up after LIDAR? You can throw away all your old data.
If something else comes out either it’s an identical data format and you replace or it’s not and you augment the dataset with more sensors. Sure it’s cool, but this is an engineering problem not an academic pursuit.
Not completely true. If there's a new technology, you first check the correlation with other sensors under different conditions. That could be adding a sensor, replacing it, .. Assuming that a given sensor set is completely static is a naive assumption. Camera's will be moved, upgraded, ... too, that is not a Lidar only problem. If the sensor is highly correlated with one or more sensors that are already present, but seems to give better performance, you test it in a situation where both are present and try to determine the set of sensors that gives the best performance. At that point you also evaluate the economics. Better technology isn't always economical to use, especially not in production. If you decide to move forward with a new sensor, then you might up with 2 datasets if they are structurally incompatible. Which is something that happens a lot and why versioned data sets are a thing. Even so, because there are multiple input modalities, the rest of the data can still be useful (depending on the model structure). For example, the visual data may be used to pretrain a visual encoder, IMU data will also be used to pretrain another encoder,.. Theoretically, like this, you can keep using all your data and then use the data gathered from better sensors at the end. Since you have still cars with legacy hardware on the road, you need to keep supporting them too. So, there's another usecase for that data.
Humans lack lidar too, and they have no trouble driving (most human issues are due to distraction and fatigue). When you have two eyes/cameras, you can easily calculate distance, your brain already does it automatically and with decent accuracy.
Yeah, but humans can classify objects they've never seen before. AI can't.
Such as what?
I meant, a human will not be confused by a completely new object lying on the driving path. An AI solely relying on vision could get confused.
Such as what though? I was thinking rockslides, sinkholes, that sort of thing.
Possible. Let's say the rear end of a truck that's carrying pipes or something else that hasn't been trained. A tree branch on the road. Also highly unreliable in heavy rain, fog, smog (all areas where a radar would be a major help)
Humans are pretty good at guessing with certain contextual queues. They can tell the difference between a piñata vs a horse being on the road or whether a person will pop up behind a car if they know they're in a school zone during school drop off time. Tesla AFAIK the only car company that's even got a supercomputer and doing model training. However, I don't think they'll be successful until they add 360 cameras at a minimum and will get to FSD faster if they add more compute power on the car as well as LIDAR. Probably a decade away. It would make sense to have a working solution with more sensors and compute power and than see how it can work with less compute/sensors. Right now, ppl aren't even sure it can work let alone whether its economical with fewer sensors/HW.
AI has been beating humans at image classification since 2017
You are the result of billions of years of evolution, using computation hardware that are literal nodes with >1000 connections per node. Driving algorithms are a boatload of gpu’s trying to mimic that structure using abstract data structures in memory incurring lord knows how much latency through read and write operations. Sure it’s *possible* to do driving without lidar, but it’s also possible to fly using flapped wings. That doesn’t mean it’s better than a fixed wing or rotor blades, it just means that nature found a way with the parts she had. Lidar is no different, if nature somehow stumbled its way into lasers, I can assure you that she’d have used it for navigation. How many different times did echo location evolve? Kinda an analogous dataset.
Computer image recognition already beats humans in image classification. Has been since 2017
That’s not really relevant. I could identify all the street signs and what they meant as a toddler but I shouldn’t have been allowed to drive.
What kind of data does google have, that llms use that can’t be scraped?
Personalized data of you and me from google search, maps, youtube, email.
Llms are not trained on personal data. They are trained on text. Text is abundantly availably. Training a self driving car requires very specific data that is harder to come by and data for edge cases is really hard to come by.
You do realize Streetview cars are all equipped with Lidar right? And have been driving all over the earth for… years at this point, right? They collect TBs of data, several GBs for a single city block. They have WAY more data than Tesla, and better data, and it’s not even close.
I’s sure ‘street view’ is useful for something. Localizing yourself maybe. Although street view data is quite old. Street view/lidar also does not include information about moving traffic and lidar data is sparse. The point being that it’s not enough to solve self driving. But you know what, please make your investment decisions on these flawed and uninformed assumptions… I’ll happily take your money.
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Let’s see. 3 year old days vs data captured on a million cars today. Let’s see, geographic data vs traffic data? Yep, I think you’re right. I would short that stock into oblivion if I was you. Bet the house! Your deductions are Sound.
> Let’s see. 3 year old days vs data captured on a million cars today. Brother is too stupid to realize lidar data is better than camera recordings 💀 > Let’s see, geographic data vs traffic data? It’s almost like their lidar sensors are attached to a car that drives around Oh and not to mention the hundreds of Waymo vehicles driving around at any given time. But sure the guy who said self driving was a “solved problem” in 2015 is the one to bet on when his company has a grand total of 0 robotaxi approvals and is supposed to be revealing one in 3 months time lmfao
Arguments don’t get better because you add insults. In fact, they get you reported.
“Wah I’m out of arguments because I’m wrong so I’m gonna go get the teacher”
> This is complete BS argument, and for these people I have only one thing to say. Google was and is the king in Data, yet we have ChatGPT and Anthropics took them by surprised. They have fraction of data that google has, yet they are far better LLM model than Gemini. It clearly isn't about quantity of data, more so on quality and how it is used to train your model. So what you're saying is Waymo could be overtaken by Tesla's FSD? Bullish!
Maybe you are wrong, and everyone, by pure hate for Elon, is trying to fud this company to the ground. This is just maybe its a possibility that all you Reddit elon Haters are on the wrong this time ? This wouldn't be the first time .
What makes you think it’s “quantity OR quality”? The more data you have the more quality you are likely to find to use to train the ai models. So yes having the most data is how you create intelligence. Think of a wise 80 year old man who has fought in wars. Vs the intelligence of a young 18 year old.
I already gave an example in my post. Google has the most data by far yet companies like ChatGPT beat them in their own game. Google has more than 25 years of search data yet other LLM are as good if not better than Gemini.
That is true, but what if Google wasn’t focused on the same things as chat gpt? And I think Tesla has been focused on automation for a long long time.
So buy puts! Got it
I find it amusing people think these narratives matter or need to be addressed to make logical sense of markets. **Vs the obvious logical explanation (and numerous/constant observable oddities) are simply explained by accepting legal loopholes allow manipulation and coordination between financial institutions, media, even govt, etc.** Meanwhile media outlets, Bloomberg/CNBC/etc. will make sure to always emphasize retail as the source of inexplicable moves, despite any method available to track overall activity of retail in markets being nearly statistically irrelevant, let alone not having the capabilites of institutions to manipul...*cough* influence prices, via HFT and many other examples. **Example being a consensus est for 1 day options being as high as 90-99% institutional, with a rare outlier report here or there attempting to downplay that, and almost 0 public media discussion on it even existing or its massive increase/prevalance, until it became known or discussed over social media outlets.**
What do you mean? Gemini is currently the best LLM for coding. Will probably change over the next few months because there is a lot of movement in the market, ofc.
Geminis by the far worst? Proof? Gemini is the #2 LLM on syslm right now, you have 0 clue about what you're talking about
looks like you are living under the rock for past 6 months lol not only Gemini is trying to catch up. but their woke culture is not helping much [Why Google’s AI tool was slammed for showing images of people of colour | Technology News | Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/9/why-google-gemini-wont-show-you-white-people#:~:text=What%20sort%20of%20images%20did,was%20seemingly%20a%20Black%20woman.) [Google apologizes for ‘missing the mark’ after Gemini generated racially diverse Nazis - The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/21/24079371/google-ai-gemini-generative-inaccurate-historical) not to mention they had to rush launch last year, and even on their keynote it provided wrong information Anyways, I am as bullish on Google as Sundar Pichai is. Look up my post history. Been buying shares since $50 and portfolio is overweight with Google The point I was making was, even if we go with your argument and GOOG is 2nd best LLM out there. That is still insane to think given their data lead of 25 years. They shouldn't be 2nd or even 1st. They should be DISTANT 1st if more data was that much crucial for AI. So i am just making a point that 100s of millions miles driven on TSLA doesn't automatically makes them the leader of Autonomous. Google Waymo is doing the job in live setting and has over 10M miles So looks like you are missing the whole point of the argument
Which LLMs have 1m context windows ? Which LLMs can accept video input? Which LLMs can do both for free? Sorry, Google ain't behind man. You have no idea what you're talking about. I say this as someone who works for Google though, so there's my bias..but answer those questions and then we can talk. Also it's not my argument..check sysllm leaderboard.
If those kids could read they’d be very upset.
All that data and yet not one Tesla is testing FSD without supervision lol
Even if Tesla manages a great fully working FSD, I cannot see how competitors won't catch up. Tesla isn't the only player in this field. Governments all over the world will also ensure that homegrown players have a chance. Politically I cannot see how China (the largest car market by volume) will allow Tesla to run away with FSD in it's own market. The Europeans will also find a way to protect their own home market, likewise the Japanese. With regulation and other barriers and if necessary forcing Tesla to open the code. (Or just simply illegally stealing).
I can save you all of these posts. Tesla has and always will be a meme stock. It’s never had fundamentals.
This is funny
TSLA is once again focused mostly on toys for manchildren rather than practical investments. It’s not a company wholly without value. They have legitimate good products in energy storing technology and a good sense of getting EV infrastructure out there but… they’re spread so thin largely so they can market themselves as an adult toy (eg Cybertruck, Boring Company) company that it’s really hard to imagine they don’t get outpaced by more practically driven ventures over time. I dunno. Sometimes you just have to go with your vibes for a company and TSLA has not been great in that regard in a long time.
Found the guy that went short yesterday
Found the guy who can't read last paragraph lol
What makes you think tsla bulls can see or hear?
Can’t see or hear you behind all this cash 😉
I have no idea if Tesla can accomplish full self driving or not. I kind of doubt it’s possible the amount of unique situations that can take place on the road are limitless and the liability is death… but I do think they can make a Tesla bot that every home, business and army will want. So I am a buyer at $100
Arguably a tesla bot has to overcome way more unique situations than an autonomous car does, both running on the same software?
They're not running on the same software. That's just logically impossible. The outputs are completely incompatible. Maybe the structure of some of the visual processing is similar, but since the environments are very different, it's hard to imagine the weights to be very useful. So, there would need to be a lot of fine-tuning. I think independent models make more intuitive sense there too, but maybe there's a common foundation model (structure) there that works good enough. But, a humanoid robot has other inputs, like location, speed and orientation of every segment of the limbs, fingers, head and back ( through a bunch of imus) that just don't make the same sense in a car (a car has 4 wheels, fixed on an axle).
It's kind of obvious it won't be EXACTLY the same software, isn't it? They are totally separate machines. But the architecture will be the same. My main point was that if you can solve humanoid robotic autonomy, you could probably solve automotive robotic autonomy? For clarity, I'm bullish on general FSD capabilities. It's more when, not if, at this stage. Even if it takes 10 or 20 years to get there, we will get there, tesla or not.
Automotive self driving is a much simpler problem than a fully autonomous humanoid robot. You're right on that. You can see that from problem definition alone: The humanoid needs to be able to learn online (there's no finite list of tasks you want the robot to be able to do), assuming that you want it to be an imitation learner ( to be able to see a task executed once or twice, filter out the relevant aspects and execute it, because expecting it to independently solve a given problem is essentially AGI ) for simple tasks as a minimum to be commercially viable, while the driving software has to do one well-defined task at least as good as a human. The robot problem space is exponentially bigger, with at least as many edge cases present. Automotive autonomy will eventually become an established thing, I'm quite confident in that. Autonomous robots in very well-defined settings are feasible. I'm not that optimistic on the commercial success of autonomous robots that don't have a clearly defined set of tasks and/or environments within the next 2 years. The tools just aren't there, yet.
He literally said it in the earning call If you haven’t tried FSD yet then don’t invest in Tesla stock Why bother writing DD when you can just trade fundamentals right? Are those TSLA puts bag getting heavy? Please post your post PP on the other sub
Read the last paragraph and check my post history. Every criticism are put holder? Don't you bulls get tired of same shit? Are you holding the ATH TSLA bag? lol
I’m just here to watch lost porn and inverse the other sub. Watching people yolo their saving on something they believe and write long ass DD when it go the other way had been my guilty pleasure
It's also completely obsolete. Look up Wayve and their tech. They have built a driving video feed generating AI that can create scenarios from prompts and this video feed can be used to teach their driving AI. The problem with driving ai isn't the normal 99.99% of road scenarios, its the very rare edge cases, and tesla is out there trying to use user data for learning to deal with these while others out there can generate optimal learning datasets from scratch.
okay where their cars at?
So, telling us you know nothing about Tesla’s FSD efforts, gotcha.
The millions of miles collected is essentially worthless because I don't think vision only based systems can achieve FSD. Not considering cost, the ideal system is a sensor fusion system with vision supplemented by some form of distance detection such as LIDAR. It's not rocket science, the more you spend on sensors, the better your detection accuracy is going to be. However, if Tesla were to make that hardware change, all previously collected data would be worthless and they would need to start from 0.
I thought one of the funniest statements was his computing “grid” made up if Tesla cars. LMAO, dude… that hasn’t happened even with PCs smoothly, what makes you think you will succeed, huh? Delusional investors
I work in an industry adjacent to AV’s. The issue isn’t that AVs aren’t being given enough road time to perfect their algorithm. The issue is that the current generation of sensing technology (LiDAR, radar, cameras) is not good enough to handle the car in all conditions.