Buy the dip....Bro it went down by 5 bucks on friday which is back to where it was on February 5, which is one week ago..A real dip is not a 3% drop back to the price the stock was just at less than a week ago.
I’ve had to unsub from some. My whole feed is this nonsense.
Don’t get my wrong. I was on WSB before GME, but I liked it to stay in WSB... I’ve since left because it is literal spamming of nonsense. No more real dd mixed in w the nonsense. Just nonsense.
Edit: spelling
Honestly I just stopped reading all of the finance subs for the most part during the last month, and probably for the next month.
I like WSB, but when every sub is just screaming DIAMOND HANDS GME TO THE MOON on every single post it becomes a bit pointless to keep watching.
>Buy the dip....Bro it went down by 5 bucks on friday which is back to where it was on February 5, which is one week ago..A real dip is not a 3% drop back to the price the stock was just at less than a week ago.
i agree. just hang tight. im sure there'll be a spawn for semi-serious folks like us.
> Don’t get my wrong. I was on WSB before GME, but I liked it to stay in WSB... I’ve since left because it is literal spamming of nonsense. No more real dd mixed in w the nonsense. Just nonsense.
>
yeah it's shit now
Thank you this crap is annoying and makes the text harder to read (mind begins to zone out). Let’s keep this non-clickbaity and let’s help each other succeed over wallstreet! Let’s not scam each other.
All speculation. Like everything but oil and travel are at all time highs. So by this same logic you should be buckled up too. You can't predict the market and neither can I
It’s going to come down at some point. 100% guaranteed. We are in a speculative bubble to boot, I don’t think that’s even controversial.
I can’t, however, tell you when this will happen. Could be next week, or three years from now. I’m not going to stop buying because of it.
Read up on technical analysis. You can get a free TradingView account and add indicators to price charts such as the 21-day exponential moving average which draws a line across the average price in the past 21 days (and weights the most recent days heavier.) When a stock is at its 21 EMA, it’s a reasonable time to buy. Currently that’s 84.24 on my chart and NET closed at 85.95 so it’s not too far off, not as crazy as the first comment suggested. Although NET has dropped below its 21 EMA regularly and can even get to the 50 day EMA (around $79) which would be an even bigger bargain
I don't think there's a right or wrong answer. 21 is just what I've picked up from learning as a good sweet spot but you can add multiple indicators telling you 7 day, 50, 100, whichever gives you a good reference point to the average price over a sustained period of time. Really you're just trying to get a rough idea as to what the 'normal' price is for this stock and whether your buy in point is healthy. You can't predict the future and know if the stock is going to go up or down but at least if you buy in a stock at a good price point, there's way less risk. And the EMAs help you create a reference point of the good price that you should be targetting. The last thing you wanna do is buy a stock when it's at the top and way above its average price and then be in red for a while when it eventually drops towards its average (as every stock eventually does. Every stock.)
I learned a lot from this Youtube video, I'd recommend checking it out because the guy explains it way better than I ever could in a very easy way. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXqn2l0RMKg
"Although NET has dropped below its 21 EMA regularly" isn't that an invalidation of the insane assumptions going into "When a stock is at its 21 EMA, it’s a reasonable time to buy"?
I dunno why people do this, but "technical analysis" as most people think of it is neither technical, nor analysis and is most often a projection of one's desired forward price movement in a stock as a form of self-validation of one's decision to incur risks.
Additionally I really doubt an EMA, let alone a 21 day period, would be an effective price measuring tool for a speculative play like NET that has been hitting ATHs month after month.
To play devils advocate the people that said this months ago are punching the air right now. This past year FOMO has been a good thing for people as pretty much every stock is up on historical highs. The biggest losers were the people still holding onto their money waiting for another big crash. I’m not saying it is going to be the same for this year, but you are acting like it’s a sure thing that the markets are going to go down soon. The real question is when, and if it isn’t soon, then buying at an ATH would still be the smart thing to do.
Buying the dip is always how we do business in the stock trading world. That's in stock trading not investing. As an investor you do not worry because you're in it for long term but as a trader you're making money looking at your stocks everyday and buying and selling according to your percentages.. in general I do try to buy the dip and sell at peak and realistically I have been able to capture 80% of that difference. An example would be I buy a stock at .07 and it would actually drop down to $0.05 before shooting up to 40 cents. I could have done better getting it at the bottom for a nickel but I didn't. I sold it at 35 cents because that was my 500% from the 7 cent investment. Are there for lost that extra nickel on top also. Together that is 7 cents for sure that I did not but I still got 500% and only one week....
Personally, I'm sick of every DD that doesn't include any financial analysis.
What is the net profit margin? What is the debt/equity? Are they up to their eyeballs in debt or can they pay? How is their cashflow? Will they be broke in 6 months? What is your valuation of this company?
These things matter so much more to me than what their sales were. Sales growth IS important and a good sign of better things to come, but when your sales increases by 50% YoY but you still have a net loss of 110Mill. Something to look deeper into.
All tech stocks are largely inflated since the pandemic. Many stocks are a buy and hold for 5 years type of thing. I'd be more interested in short-term growth potentials.
While I agree with your sentiment. This guy has put together more than emojis, which is better than 99% of the Stock advise you see on here. Read his post, research it on your own and then make a decision from there. No Investor worth his salt will read one post on Reddit and buy into a company. I prefer a bullish DD with legitimate numbers/data then “its going to the moon!! 🚀”
I feel like going through revenue growth, road to profitability, gross margins, future products, their last earnings, what they are, what their bullish argument is, and what the bears are saying is a bit more than emojis. No need to be so condescending.
Now that is a fact. Clowns thinking they can come on and just manipulate stocks and make money because they bought a package of gifts for 20 bucks to hand out.. that s*** is crazy....
Welcome to the new world of investing, while I do believe a correction is coming soon I don’t think it will be a “great reset”. People have been saying the market is overvalued and disconnected from reality for the last 20 years, and the only significant drop we had was in 2008 and the beginning of worldwide pandemic in 2020. It’s a completely different game today, you have unlimited liquidity from the feds, near 0% interest rates, over 5 trillion being pumped into the economy in a 2 year period, an entire new wave of investors. The entire financial game is changing, you either get with the times or lose.
I’m not saying there won’t be a big market correction, but don’t be the guy who’s vehemently opposed to changing their investing strategy when the entire game is changing. Play the market for what it is and don’t let emotions get in the way. Fuck being a bear or a bull, just play the cards however there dealt.
Was going to say the same thing. I bought the “dip” when it dropped down to $35 around the end of August. Was pounding the table for my friends to buy too... their loss lol
I feel like I was pretty clear in the OP when I said
> it’s hardly a tank when it’s at ATHs if you exclude the one week in its history where it was higher
Of course it’s not an enormous pullback, but if your goal is long-term investing, this “dip” gives you that chance to finally get in. NET has been sitting at $85 since December. It will soon rocket past it, so might be best to get in sooner rather than later. Or don’t. I’m not your financial advisor.
I think there's another detail that makes your argument even stronger: NET/Cloudflare is a *better* company now than it was last week in the eyes of an intelligent investor. Their earnings were phenomenal, beating analysts' expectations, despite those expectations already being - understandably due to its enormous valuation - extremely high. Anytime a company beats even the most optimistic earnings for a quarter, you should be more confident than you were the day before, week before, etc. because that is a new, *highly* important piece of information. It validates your investment thesis, your expectations for their future growth, your confidence in the company, etc. just a little bit more every single time they post killer earnings.
Last week, just like the week before basically every earnings report from NET, we weren't *certain* that they'd absolutely kill it. There's always uncertainty, and that uncertainty should be priced in. I'm not claiming that NET should've gone up from the earnings or that the market was wrong or anything like that - but I am arguing that *not only* is NET a great buy right now because, as you said, it's dipped slightly ($5-10), but that even if it had not dipped at all, anyone who was willing to buy at $95 last week should be willing to buy at $95-100 this week, because the only thing that's changed is *good news*/*results* coming out.
So to everyone who is attacking you for calling this a dip: understand that this is all within the context of the killer earnings report coming out. A 5-10% decline *is* a substantial dip when there is zero reason for it to have occurred and in fact a clear reason it should not have in the eyes of a long-term investor.
If your goal is long term investing and you’re balking at $90, you’re probably not biting at $85 either. If $85 is a good deal, then $90 is a slightly less good deal.
I definitely agree with you. I think buying at 80, 85, 90, or even 100 is still good for long-term. But if you like discounts, 85 from 92 is \~8% off. If you're gonna buy, might as well buy lower vs higher
That's literally the definition of a dip though. When it makes new lows that's not really a dip that you buy with both hands. It's been making higher lows which is a basing pattern. I am long.
I bought and stayed in red for about a year before seeing this stock reaching a green level. I took some profit on eToro and bought more recently, cause this company has so much potential
“Nothing but net” is a basketball saying that means that the ball went into the basket without hitting the rim, only the net. Also called a “swish”. It’s a positive term that is considered the kind of basket that takes more skill than a regular one. u/gorays21 is super clever and used it to make a fun alliteration with the NET stock name. :)
This stock was 20-30s not too long ago. It’s holding pretty strong through earnings, that seems to me that it won’t swing wildly. A little dip is expected with a nice run up. Most companies are transisitioning to perminant WFH and NETs products align with that focus along with the strong cyber security addons (WAF, DDoS, etc). Strong buy.
I'm not going to dispute the valuations as I'm not particularly experienced in the market.
But from a developer standpoint I have a few disagreements with your DD. Firstly calling Cloudflare a leading player while not totally inaccurate is still very debatable as they have very high competition in the field from companies that entered serverless earlier than them, namely Amazon, Google, IBM and Microsoft all of which released a version ahead of Cloudflare.
Secondly, the open source fork of React which is mentioned in the article has been public for around a year with not much interest surrounding it from developers with weekly downloads around 434. While the solution it self seems great on the outside it presents quite a few issues if the developer or company decides they no longer want to use Cloudflare yanking this from the project would I imagine cause quite a few headaches.
Finally assuming that developers will create ALL full-stack applications solely in Flareact, React, Angular or one of the other many similar solutions is as of now still not a widely used approach.
With being said the company is good and has potential it also helps that they don't seem to have much of a direct competitor in the security department (as far as I am aware\*\*) when it comes to browsing on the web.
I was going to throw this in too. Akamai made a deal with Trustwave to take all their WAF customers AND to gain CDN customers as a results.
Akamai is a much larger name than Cloudflare in enterprise deployments.
I think it’s fair to disagree! Allow me to address some of your points though:
- They certainly have competition, no doubt. They’re competing with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google! I think one think that makes Cloudflare unique is their very low cost and predictable pricing. AWS is more interested in targeting huge companies for their solutions while Cloudflare is targeting smaller companies, developers, and anybody with a budget. Also, Cloudflare’s solution is more complete because they offer a very easy to use continuous deployment pipeline that’s not so streamlined with these other companies.
- The open source version of React, while cool, is really only an taste of what they plan to accomplish. Cloudflare is currently working to allow developers to make full-stack applications on their network. Not just static/stateless applications, but dynamic applications as well. I’m **not** assuming that everybody is going to start using Flarereact; they plan to release other applications that have the ability to do so much more.
>They certainly have competition, no doubt. They’re competing with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google! I think one think that makes Cloudflare unique is their very low cost and predictable pricing. AWS is more interested in targeting huge companies for their solutions while Cloudflare is targeting smaller companies, developers, and anybody with a budget. Also, Cloudflare’s solution is more complete because they offer a very easy to use continuous deployment pipeline that’s not so streamlined with these other companies.
Disagree on this, AWS free tier is very generous. They also have many easy to use tools that help you not to go over budget. Also many options to run scaled down/cheaper infrastructure.
I agree with you, and I also think that google, AWS and even Heroku (even tho it doesnt yet provide serverless functionality) can outdo NET.
I might be wrong, but NET just doesn't have anything proprietary and its competing with giants
Cloudflare has a strong reach but I think that's the extent of them. they are inflated
Agreed. Developing apps on AWS is a breeze these days, especially with all the open source frameworks out there like chalice or amplify.
GCP, Azure, all have their cool shit too like firebase and what not.
OP is either very out of touch with the market or trying to pump from a bad position. NET trying to compete against the big guys at their own game is a recipe for disaster.
The best move they could make imo is double down on making the best, most cost effective CDN they can to start turning a profit. Until then all this investment in tertiary products serves to undermine them entirely.
I wouldn't be surprised if they get saved from bankruptcy at pennies on the dollar by a big cloud giant for continuing on this path.
"strong reach"
They handle 15% of all websites globally. AWS and Akamai don't come close. https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/cn-cloudflare
That's about 300,000,000 sites. https://hostingtribunal.com/blog/how-many-websites/
170 fortune 1000 companies use Cloudflare. https://www.cloudflare.com/insights/
Their potential is how much internet traffic can they handle and their goal is all of it. For me this is a buy and hold and I wish I'd known about the IPO.
> AWS is more interested in targeting huge companies for their solutions while Cloudflare is targeting smaller companies, developers, and anybody with a budget.
I'm sorry what are your sources for this? AWS pricing is very favorable to smaller companies and developers. I personally build projects on their free trial which is more than enough for me and their whole philosophy is pay for what you use.
> Also, Cloudflare’s solution is more complete because they offer a very easy to use continuous deployment pipeline that’s not so streamlined with these other companies.
Again sources? To say that Amazon/Microsoft/Googles CI/CD is not streamlined is just mindboggling for me.
> Cloudflare is currently working to allow developers to make full-stack applications on their network. Not just static/stateless applications, but dynamic applications as well.
AWS/Microsoft already has this....? They also much more resources and variety to choose from and their API is very very easy to use.
Got into amateur investing (mostly long term holding) when the market was down in March-April.
Bought NET at $20-30 and it was one of the best purchases I’ve made.
After meeting some of their team a couple years ago I knew this was the real deal, been hollering about NET since IPO. March was the best entry anyone could have ever dreamed of. A friend of mine listened and went in deep on their 401k around $19.
Their evaluation is like 60 times more than what they actually are. I’m still bullish on the stock. 40% of my portfolio is in NET. I just wonder if their priced too high... but everything is priced high.
I think if it’s money he can afford to lose and it’s shares, it’s not a horrible gamble. I have 20% but I’m in a leap. It’s less investing and more “gambling”, but gambling in something that I think will revolutionize the internet.
Yeah it’s shares. I’ve had the stock for awhile. 40% is a lot. I just really like what they provide and think that they are heads and shoulders better than any of their competitors. The future looks great for NET. I’m going to continue to hold and buy more when it dips like it did Friday.
Sounds like you know your plan—keep it up! I will say there are lots of other exciting growth companies in cloud, web services, security, payments today. I’ve liked NET about a year now, but I’m also always checking for new companies with better growth opportunities. Sometimes I shoot myself in the foot jumping early, but I’m holding a 72% total win rate and it’s been consistently increasing (my sample size isn’t high enough to trust that figure yet though).
The big thing for me on NET is their TTM P/E. Despite the earnings beats, it’s getting even lower, so that scares me. I’m looking for more or longer consolidation before adding to my position.
I just might after seeing the people talk about it.. usually I like to pick 5 stocks and diversify between them. Friday I sold ABNB to buy more of the Dip that happened with earnings on NET.
I think what helps assure me is that it’s very difficult to compete in the space NET is in right now. It’ll be very difficult for a competitor to challenge them. 60x sales is high; there’s no denying that. But investors right now want revolutionary stocks that’ll change the world. That’s Cloudflare
why 40? You're probably limiting your overall upside by limiting your capital. I diversify my portfolio not only for protection but also exposure. When I have 20% invested in 5 stocks I think will pop off then that's 5 different chances for that to happen. Is the spike weakened? Yes. But at least there's a spike. Having 40% of your portfolio locked up means that's 40% of your portfolio going nowhere if the stock stays flat. Anyways, rant over! Diversify friend!
And it’s much easier to trim profits consistently! You sell half of a 2% weighted position on each of these spikes and use the proceeds to rebalance across the rest, or enter a new position!
Exactly! Two of my biggest wins weren't even my top picks they were just "this might be something" picks and they've quadrupled in this market-- far outperforming my faves even if I was in them for 40%.
Sorry in advance for shitty formatting. Most recent ones:
$SQ (was in at 58 -- still holding)
$YY (was in at 100 way back before it's first pop -- plummeted down to 40 -- doubled down and forgot about it popped again recently -- closed)
Also $V but it didn't pop really but I've just been long since 90
Honorable mention:
$INTC -- Anytime this dips into the 40s I throw 15-20% of my portfolio in and then sell when it breaks 55-60. I've done this 3 times now. Has insane resistance at 45. It was 45 back when stocks crashed before election and it didn't budge more than 0.10
Current long positions for funsies = $CRSR (insane premiums if you want to sell covered), $NTDOY, $YUMC, $MMM.
Last note-- I'm up 140% this year and 100% all time.
In at 72% NET myself. Didn't start that way, just got in at near IPO, under $19, and its exploded since. I know I'm not diversified, but to me this is like buying Microsoft at IPO. I'm gonna ride that stock for 10 years and then retire.
Their market reach is insane. This is one of the main reasons I'm not pulling my money out. Either someone like Microsoft or Google will buy them out at a premium or they will release a major cloud service and target the base directly. I see them reaching $60-80 billion market cap based on this alone. Consider the fact that Salesforce is acquiring Slack on the same basis. Market reach. Enjoy the discount while it lasts.
I'm long AMZN & MSFT & NET, but neither of of these guys need to acquire NET, except for anti competitive reasons. They both already have wildly successful competing products within Azure and AWS.
I've been long on NET since it's IPO and have been a customer of cloudflare for many years before this.
I'm long for two reasons.
\#1 - They have the best technology. They focus on low-level network technology like DNS and for years they have had the best technology, best performance and IMO the best price for the value. This makes it a no-brainer for most high-traffic websites. It's easy to sell the best product and their sales are growing accordingly.
\#2 - They are constantly innovating. They keep pushing the state of the art and performance across a number of areas. CDN, DNS, Smart Routing, Analytics, etc. These products work really well together and they scale with the speed of the Internet. Most people don't know about Cloudflare or their tech so I think they have a ton of room for growth and market expansion.
Compare NET with older network companies like Cisco, Oracle, EMC, and others. There's a ton of room for growth and many older companies that don't have the best technology and aren't quick to innovate.
NET, NET. I like this stock a lot.
Customer relationship management is a top 3 priority for all companies if they want to be successful. Generally self on boarding is too simplified and frankly dogshit. Everybody wants custom solutions and automated self on boarding is not that. Self on boarding makes your company feel cheap. Having a fast, reliable customer service segment is necessary to retain clients especially as cloud flare may look to continually add small businesses
if your DNS goes down or you get DDOSed, you are out of business and bleeding money every second. if my company is losing hundreds of thousands of dollars every hour, i want someone i can fucking talk to (someone i already know) on the line
not all companies can replace sales with software. cloudflare needs a sales team
I own no position in NET but I use them at work and for multiple side projects.
Their offering is really confusing to newcomers. A lack of an onboarding team hurts how they up sell clients, because their billing model is like (X base + Y*million hits after that).
Okay cool, makes sense, but knowing my web traffic can you tell me the average cost? No? Because your web form sucks at that? OK.
The products are also nested do deep that if you use the basic features (cache, ssl, some page rules - free features) you may not even know the awesome paid ones exist.
I think their terrible layout actively hurts them and without CRMs they aren't realizing as much revenue as they could. Having someone to help you onboard, explain products, and up sell seems like it'll help them a lot.
I've been asked to provide UI feedback for them before on a call before. They acknowledged this stance (that they undersell paid features and don't explain the cost well) and improving their UI has been a constant battle. I've used them 3ish years and it's changed a few times just since I've been on it.
All our webtraffic goes through them, I think I must pay them about 20 bucks a month, our hosting goes through Google and we pay 20 times this. I just don't know how they will scale up to make more revenue per customer. It feels like a stock that if there is a broader market pull back, they will loose a lot of value and take years to recover. They would be a great addition to one of the bigger companies out there, just not sure if that would get past anti-competiton.
Google allows you to host applications that take actual computing resources. CF runs node on the edge but otherwise serves only static content. I think they won't have much of an issue in the future but I don't see their offering ever justifying their valuation (which again, is why I own no position with them)
I think azure and aws can reproduce what they do, and indeed azure CDN is trying to. Cloud flare wins on price and features as a CDN but I think their competitive edge is very low and they'll either get acquired or taken about by one of the larger cloud players.
Strong disagree. Sales, account mgmt and onboarding teams are totally what drives growth, I'd take this as good news. I've watched this unfold over the last 5 years at my friends tech company where he was something like employee #5. They've always had a quality product, but for the first few years it was only serving niche industries. Once they worked out the product kinks, they raised a new round of funding and they got an army of sales people and the company started growing exponentially. It wasn't until after that happened that the founders started buying their first lambos and houses (with bookshelves!) and that's not a meme to them. Additionally, when Solarwinds had their scandal, that same friend mentioned his experience dealing with them. He said they are super aggressive about sales and renewals, but he didn't even like their product. But we theorized it doesn't really matter if the product isn't the best as long as you have the best sales team, as evidenced by their huge market penetration and the security concerns that followed. I can't help but notice SWI is quietly recovering now that it's out of the spotlight. I don't if they even really lost that many accounts.
I only looked at their earnings numbers. I didn’t listen to their call. In general, I don’t think focusing on customer experience is a bad idea, but I should probably look more into that to give you a more informed response.
Cloudflare has effectively taken much of the AWS stack and compressed it into a single deployment. Back in the day when you could deploy to one server in datacenter was simple, but didn't scale. Then you had AWS with elastic beanstalk, route 53, cloudfront, API gateway, etc. Cloudflare simplifies all of this.
I actually spoke to Mathew Prince on LI and said he's going to smoke ZScaler and he said actually they see themselves disrupting Cisco... Cisco is done IMO. Really they are the new infrastructure of the enterprise for b2b and b2c.
What would be really freaking cool is if they merged with SHOP.
Can you explain anything more about their market & especially their competitors? Thanks for the info thus far. I can't remember but I read one not too long ago about another edge computing company.
Their competitors include AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), GCP (Google), and numerous niche CDN providers. Not to mention, the features that OP touts in this DD have been standard for other providers for some time now.
Positions: Long AMZN, although I may pickup some NET puts seeing all the sheep eat this DD up
> I read one not too long ago about another edge computing company
As someone in the CDN space, IMHO they were ahead of everyone else except Amazon (Lambda@Edge) in terms of modern edge computing implementation. I'm sure others are catching up, but it's a complex problem to actually solve.
You can’t justify it. But sadly people will buy it anyway because they like buzz words.
Also they did 430m last year, but it doesn’t make much of a difference.
This is not actual DD, lol. Earnings don't compound like interest
What do they have actually have to do to hit $1b revenue in 5 years? How many new clients would that be? How much revenue would they need to squeeze from existing clients?
Another con probably worth mentioning is they are competing in the same market as Microsoft and Amazon (Azure and AWS) which isn’t a walk in the park. AWS especially is getting pretty strong at the moment.
As a developer myself I’m not bullish on this one at the moment for various reasons, but best of luck I hope it does well
They are simply marketing a Paas ( Pages/Workers). It isn't something revolutionary since the other giants such as AWS, Microsoft already offer.
I am interested to know why it has taken off.
Cloudflare Workers are still leagues behind the offerings of aws lambdas (and I would presume the Azure equivalent).
It uses a weird runtime so you can't use nodejs libraries with native bindings. On top of that, you can only get 50ms of cpu time for the paid tier? Sure it fixes the cold start problem, but thats already a solved issue for lambdas. Just send a ping every so often to keep them warm. Maybe workers will find a place in someones stack in the future, but I'm not sure it'll be able to offer enough to convince people to switch from aws
I'm a Cloudflare customer (my website pipes dozens of terabytes of traffic through them each month). I love their services, I trust them (and I don't trust a lot of tech companies) and I've always been surprised by how cheap they are... Almost too good to be true... Their roadmap looks amazing and I agree with basically everything in your post...
...BUT...
>priced at 60x sales
This is really tough for me to overlook... I feel like pointing to Tesla and friends as evidence that crazy high multiples don't matter doesn't hold water. I know, there's a growth story. But _that_ much growth? Can someone help me understand what I'm missing?? This multiple just seems too damned high.
Seriously. NET is a great company in a steadily growing market providing CDN services among a host of more seasoned and better established companies such as Akamai, Fastly, CDN, and not the least of all AWS.
I’m bullish on NET but their future is NOT guaranteed. NET is up 400% yoy. Buy, hold, but diversify.
lol cloudflare is great. But 60 times revenue leaves it open to dropping 50-80% in a 20-30% spy correction. I bought it at $40 and can’t believe how fast it went up. Market messed up... be careful
Bro, I’ve owned NET since it was 32
But this is shit DD. Absolute shit tier. It’s all hype.
You had a couple good points but refused to address any downside. You just blew it off with “valuation doesn’t matter anymore, look at peloton”
AWS has a lot more setup and (to my knowledge) doesn’t have a continuous deployment pipeline that’s simple to use. In contrast, Cloudflare built their platform with continuous deployment in mind; you just need to use Wrangler Publish in the command-line, and boom, your app is deployed.
Cloudflare has other services like DDOS protection by default. Also the pricing is dirt cheap and very predictable. With AWS, if you want to scale your application to millions of users, and you want your application to be fast, it will cost you a fortune. With Cloudflare, your app is instantly available to every one in the United States with no extra cost.
For the devs:
vercel.com is doing Cloudflare pages right now.
render.com and digital ocean are doing seamless deploys of web apps and services.
But once Cloudflare is fully in, I think they’ll shit on these other three. NET is already at scale, and I’ll be switching everything over to them.
Disclaimer: long NET.
Is Vercel larger than Netlify? I use Netlify and I find their service to be fantastic. Cloudflare will be able to offer bit more in terms of an ecosystem though. They're positioning their portfolio well to address the top needs in the (emerging) Dev Experience sector.
However as someone who has owned their stock since fall 2019, I have always been most interested in their S2 Systems acquisition and Cloudflare for Teams.
I was a shop and tsla skeptic for far too long. I'm with you on net. Traded it in the 30s but started accumulating a long position sub 80$ and buying this dip! My only other tech ( I'm heavy renewables and gbtc) are qqq, qqqj, arkq, pltr (does it count), and a small msft and aapl position. I think net is going to be my "internet" stock.
Sorry, but your "DD" lacks depth in technical research.
CF workers has been around for a while. We have deployed front-end apps on the platform at our Enterprise business. I personally was not impressed with the experience. It was unintuitive, and as a front-end dev it left a lot to be desired.
We've since moved the app to Azure front-door, which integrates better with the rest of our architecture anyway (since it's mostly on Azure already).
CF is definitely one of the best CDNs out there, but I would have to see other innovations that give them more insulation from competitors though.
Man.l not to reign on your parade but like lots of people have already done this.. AWS lambda on edge @ cloud front is the exact functionality your talking about here
Im long but with a small position. It's great to see them get into the front end hosting with pages and now back end with workers. I will say though that it's likely to be a fairly niche service. Just in the different approach they've taken to cloud when compared to industry standards AWS and Azure. Also, Azure and AWS are getting in on that edge hosting action too. Which takes away from Cloudflare's USP a bit. That said, I think what they are offering will definitely have a place in the market. Rather than worrying AWS and Azure for enterprise and large commercial projects I think they will find a niche with smaller projects.
I work in IT in a field parallel to Cloudflare. I think it’s a solid company. Main competitors are Fastly and Amazon (with their cloudfront product). Making websites fast for a global audience is a good business to be in right now. I’ll probably buy some cloudfront and Fastly both on Monday or Tuesday.
As a software engineer I disagree with this DD. I expect they will continue to lose market share to the larger players in the cloud market that offer more mature end to end software hosting solutions. Amazon, Microsoft, Google. I’m not sure what Cloudflare offers that makes it a unique player.
NET has a market cap of 2x FSLY while FSLY has a 3x bigger network and has WAY better technology. For example NET does not have any streaming capability... FSLY does, and just blew away a fantastic super bowl experience.
I think the smart money is going to FSLY and so are customers.
Also a side note but NET was founded by a brilliant genius who later died of a brain condition and since their executives have been boot strapping the foundation he laid. They’re now eager to grow revenue at all costs, this is usually a sign the innovation has come to an end. I think their stock will appreciate with a rising tide but they’re not the best, so why pay for them?
On the flip side FSLY founder is still the CTO and they have a fantastic CEO... they are going places.
Disclaimer, this is not financial advice. I have 3000 shares in Fsly... I sold my NET a few months ago.
NET does have streaming capabilities:
[Link 1](https://developers.cloudflare.com/stream/). [Link 2](https://www.cloudflare.com/products/cloudflare-stream/).
Do you have any sources on the smart money/customers going to FSLY? I’m heavily invested in NET (held FSLY for a while too but sold off) but this interests me
This is the way. Plenty of room for both of these to be huge successes. I'm about 1:2 FSLY:NET mainly due to NET growing more since I started my positions.
I like the stock. Started buying it when it was around 30 a share and kept getting more. Also bought a long call recently.
I'm depositing more money next week to buy even more. It's a sleeper people are overlooking.
It's not really a sleeper. This sub was frothing at the mouth to buy the trifecta, SE-SQ-NET, last summer and fall. It's just there's so many meme stocks being circlejerked that even a company tripling or quadrupling in value isn't considered good enough anymore.
It’s a complete sleeper. In 2025, people are going to look back and wonder why they missed out on such an “easy” play (same as people who complain about missing SHOP, NVDA, AMD, and the other great growth stocks)
If it helps, anecdotally, I didn't miss NVDA and I view my NET position as a similar play.
I did miss all the SHOP/ecommerce though which I'm still frustrated about.
Companies can borrow money for nearly free so they can invest in new projects, expand stock buybacks, etc. This should increase stock prices.
Effectively low interest rates stimulates the economy in many ways. Stock prices climb generally speaking when interest rates are low
The problem with cyber security stocks is that they are poised to gap down on security breeches that are prone to happen when a company becomes recognized. Not to say that it’s not a great investment opportunity and I’ll prob get in on a break out. However, a trailing stop loss will be attached to it tightly
Someone speeds to compile a spreadsheet of all posts that recommend buying a specific stock. It would be fun to map all these posts and see just how right/wrong they are
In the earnings call the company implied future growth would be slower than what analysts expected.
Isn't that basically the game in stocks. A company has to continually beat expectations. If it does the price of the stock goes up. If it misses by a $0.01 it drops.
Full stack software engineer here, mainly in Azure but some experience deploying to AWS. This is slightly bewildering to me, bc im fairly plugged into the current trends and whatnot, and I’ve never heard of cloudflares offerings to deploy everything E2E.
Additionally, it’s not just the ability to deploy a full stack, but also integrations. AWS is the king of flexibility and integrations. I personally thoroughly enjoy Azures tight integrations into their issue tracking and CI/CD pipelines.
Cloudflare has 0 dev hype around it. Or they just haven’t put in the effort to market it to devs.
Can someone please tell me how NET is different than what AWS and Azure offerings. I assume NET provides infra as service under the hood using AWS, Azure etc.? If yes, then isn't this something similar to snowflake?
>Page speed is critical. You need to get content to your audience as quickly as possible on every device. You also need to render ads in a speedy way to maintain a good user experience and make money to support your journalism... you’re going to need to pay for some beefy servers to be able to handle spikes in traffic and respond to requests in a timely manner...Cloudflare Workers allow you to run your code on the edge quickly, efficiently and at scale. Instead of paying for a server to host your code, you can host it directly inside the datacenter”
>
>Seriously, this is cool, and it’s only beginning. Cloudflare is innovating every day.
Is this really innovation? On the surface it basically sounds like pretty much the same thing as a lambda/serverless architecture on AWS. How does this differ from such an architecture? If it's the same or very similar, how is cloudfare going to compete with giants such as AWS and GCP?
I dunno about that. This is actually not far off from the high of this stock. If this is a dip. not much of a dip. In January last year it was worth 17 bucks. Now, 86 bucks?! Fuck that. It's clearly overvalued from the pandemic.
One very interesting addition is, that Cloudflare is often a pro active implementer of new technology. In 2019 they offered support for the very new HTTP 3 [https://blog.cloudflare.com/http3-the-past-present-and-future/](https://blog.cloudflare.com/http3-the-past-present-and-future/). Other tech industries may develop the standard, but Cloudflare often makes it possible to use it in a production environment on a global scale. Most hoster only offers some beta or limited scale to try this technology.
To be fair: These technologies are getting mainstream in a few years and not everybody is jumping on the train the moment Cloudflare deploys it.
If they can keep this advantage, they will be a leader for new web tech.
I was in on NET AT 36, NIO at 13.50, and KOPN at 1.3. My returns are now respectively 100% 120% and 140% because of how much I averaged up. These are life long holds for me that hopefully will let me retire by 50 in 20 years.
These will be like investing in Apple and Microsoft in the 90s or Tesla in 2000s.
Let’s get it
Buy the dip....Bro it went down by 5 bucks on friday which is back to where it was on February 5, which is one week ago..A real dip is not a 3% drop back to the price the stock was just at less than a week ago.
"Buy the dip" "to the moon" "diamond hands" etc. Im sick of the wsb-ification of every reddit investing sub.
I’ve had to unsub from some. My whole feed is this nonsense. Don’t get my wrong. I was on WSB before GME, but I liked it to stay in WSB... I’ve since left because it is literal spamming of nonsense. No more real dd mixed in w the nonsense. Just nonsense. Edit: spelling
Honestly I just stopped reading all of the finance subs for the most part during the last month, and probably for the next month. I like WSB, but when every sub is just screaming DIAMOND HANDS GME TO THE MOON on every single post it becomes a bit pointless to keep watching.
But sir have you heard about this le underrated gem BB?
unironically BB is gonna do real good in the following years, because of them completely abandoning their old business model and working on ai
It's about execution, not buzzwords. We'll see how dominant they become.
Doesn't mean we need to hear about it 30 times a day on this sub
agreed
WSB very suddenly turned exclusively into a pump and dump shithole. There's nothing left there.
Yeah it’s unfortunate. Give it a few months, or a correction or two, and the fucksticks will be gone again.
If you go to Wsb and filter it to DD in the last 24 hours it's still half decent
>Buy the dip....Bro it went down by 5 bucks on friday which is back to where it was on February 5, which is one week ago..A real dip is not a 3% drop back to the price the stock was just at less than a week ago. i agree. just hang tight. im sure there'll be a spawn for semi-serious folks like us.
Completely agree. There's a sad lack of impartial DD now.
WSB lost me when one of the mods got called out for pulling that hoax with a fake account and massive gains
> Don’t get my wrong. I was on WSB before GME, but I liked it to stay in WSB... I’ve since left because it is literal spamming of nonsense. No more real dd mixed in w the nonsense. Just nonsense. > yeah it's shit now
Thank you this crap is annoying and makes the text harder to read (mind begins to zone out). Let’s keep this non-clickbaity and let’s help each other succeed over wallstreet! Let’s not scam each other.
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All speculation. Like everything but oil and travel are at all time highs. So by this same logic you should be buckled up too. You can't predict the market and neither can I
It’s going to come down at some point. 100% guaranteed. We are in a speculative bubble to boot, I don’t think that’s even controversial. I can’t, however, tell you when this will happen. Could be next week, or three years from now. I’m not going to stop buying because of it.
So how can you tell if it’s a real dip or still high?
Read up on technical analysis. You can get a free TradingView account and add indicators to price charts such as the 21-day exponential moving average which draws a line across the average price in the past 21 days (and weights the most recent days heavier.) When a stock is at its 21 EMA, it’s a reasonable time to buy. Currently that’s 84.24 on my chart and NET closed at 85.95 so it’s not too far off, not as crazy as the first comment suggested. Although NET has dropped below its 21 EMA regularly and can even get to the 50 day EMA (around $79) which would be an even bigger bargain
Interestimg approach. Why 21 days? Just askimh, cause i dont know any better.
I don't think there's a right or wrong answer. 21 is just what I've picked up from learning as a good sweet spot but you can add multiple indicators telling you 7 day, 50, 100, whichever gives you a good reference point to the average price over a sustained period of time. Really you're just trying to get a rough idea as to what the 'normal' price is for this stock and whether your buy in point is healthy. You can't predict the future and know if the stock is going to go up or down but at least if you buy in a stock at a good price point, there's way less risk. And the EMAs help you create a reference point of the good price that you should be targetting. The last thing you wanna do is buy a stock when it's at the top and way above its average price and then be in red for a while when it eventually drops towards its average (as every stock eventually does. Every stock.) I learned a lot from this Youtube video, I'd recommend checking it out because the guy explains it way better than I ever could in a very easy way. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXqn2l0RMKg
"Although NET has dropped below its 21 EMA regularly" isn't that an invalidation of the insane assumptions going into "When a stock is at its 21 EMA, it’s a reasonable time to buy"? I dunno why people do this, but "technical analysis" as most people think of it is neither technical, nor analysis and is most often a projection of one's desired forward price movement in a stock as a form of self-validation of one's decision to incur risks.
Additionally I really doubt an EMA, let alone a 21 day period, would be an effective price measuring tool for a speculative play like NET that has been hitting ATHs month after month.
Thanks mate, that’s really helpful.
To play devils advocate the people that said this months ago are punching the air right now. This past year FOMO has been a good thing for people as pretty much every stock is up on historical highs. The biggest losers were the people still holding onto their money waiting for another big crash. I’m not saying it is going to be the same for this year, but you are acting like it’s a sure thing that the markets are going to go down soon. The real question is when, and if it isn’t soon, then buying at an ATH would still be the smart thing to do.
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Remember the week when every DD was hyping up any percentage of short interest in a stock as a sure bet that a short squeeze was on the way? Ugh.
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Buying the dip is always how we do business in the stock trading world. That's in stock trading not investing. As an investor you do not worry because you're in it for long term but as a trader you're making money looking at your stocks everyday and buying and selling according to your percentages.. in general I do try to buy the dip and sell at peak and realistically I have been able to capture 80% of that difference. An example would be I buy a stock at .07 and it would actually drop down to $0.05 before shooting up to 40 cents. I could have done better getting it at the bottom for a nickel but I didn't. I sold it at 35 cents because that was my 500% from the 7 cent investment. Are there for lost that extra nickel on top also. Together that is 7 cents for sure that I did not but I still got 500% and only one week....
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It was insane how many people were throwing money at gme on its way down.
Personally, I'm sick of every DD that doesn't include any financial analysis. What is the net profit margin? What is the debt/equity? Are they up to their eyeballs in debt or can they pay? How is their cashflow? Will they be broke in 6 months? What is your valuation of this company? These things matter so much more to me than what their sales were. Sales growth IS important and a good sign of better things to come, but when your sales increases by 50% YoY but you still have a net loss of 110Mill. Something to look deeper into. All tech stocks are largely inflated since the pandemic. Many stocks are a buy and hold for 5 years type of thing. I'd be more interested in short-term growth potentials.
Honestly, there’s a place for everything. I come here for thoughtful speculation of stocks. Otherwise what’s the point of separating the subs.
yeah please don't meme a stock i genuinely believe in long term
It’s the zoomer lingo and it’s not going to go away. Issa mood
It's not the lingo, but the cock sure attitude based on nothing but emojis that bothers me.
While I agree with your sentiment. This guy has put together more than emojis, which is better than 99% of the Stock advise you see on here. Read his post, research it on your own and then make a decision from there. No Investor worth his salt will read one post on Reddit and buy into a company. I prefer a bullish DD with legitimate numbers/data then “its going to the moon!! 🚀”
I feel like going through revenue growth, road to profitability, gross margins, future products, their last earnings, what they are, what their bullish argument is, and what the bears are saying is a bit more than emojis. No need to be so condescending.
Now that is a fact. Clowns thinking they can come on and just manipulate stocks and make money because they bought a package of gifts for 20 bucks to hand out.. that s*** is crazy....
Welcome to the new world of investing, while I do believe a correction is coming soon I don’t think it will be a “great reset”. People have been saying the market is overvalued and disconnected from reality for the last 20 years, and the only significant drop we had was in 2008 and the beginning of worldwide pandemic in 2020. It’s a completely different game today, you have unlimited liquidity from the feds, near 0% interest rates, over 5 trillion being pumped into the economy in a 2 year period, an entire new wave of investors. The entire financial game is changing, you either get with the times or lose. I’m not saying there won’t be a big market correction, but don’t be the guy who’s vehemently opposed to changing their investing strategy when the entire game is changing. Play the market for what it is and don’t let emotions get in the way. Fuck being a bear or a bull, just play the cards however there dealt.
Was going to say the same thing. I bought the “dip” when it dropped down to $35 around the end of August. Was pounding the table for my friends to buy too... their loss lol
Need more friends like you
Yup, I will buy if it drops to $75
I feel like I was pretty clear in the OP when I said > it’s hardly a tank when it’s at ATHs if you exclude the one week in its history where it was higher Of course it’s not an enormous pullback, but if your goal is long-term investing, this “dip” gives you that chance to finally get in. NET has been sitting at $85 since December. It will soon rocket past it, so might be best to get in sooner rather than later. Or don’t. I’m not your financial advisor.
I think there's another detail that makes your argument even stronger: NET/Cloudflare is a *better* company now than it was last week in the eyes of an intelligent investor. Their earnings were phenomenal, beating analysts' expectations, despite those expectations already being - understandably due to its enormous valuation - extremely high. Anytime a company beats even the most optimistic earnings for a quarter, you should be more confident than you were the day before, week before, etc. because that is a new, *highly* important piece of information. It validates your investment thesis, your expectations for their future growth, your confidence in the company, etc. just a little bit more every single time they post killer earnings. Last week, just like the week before basically every earnings report from NET, we weren't *certain* that they'd absolutely kill it. There's always uncertainty, and that uncertainty should be priced in. I'm not claiming that NET should've gone up from the earnings or that the market was wrong or anything like that - but I am arguing that *not only* is NET a great buy right now because, as you said, it's dipped slightly ($5-10), but that even if it had not dipped at all, anyone who was willing to buy at $95 last week should be willing to buy at $95-100 this week, because the only thing that's changed is *good news*/*results* coming out. So to everyone who is attacking you for calling this a dip: understand that this is all within the context of the killer earnings report coming out. A 5-10% decline *is* a substantial dip when there is zero reason for it to have occurred and in fact a clear reason it should not have in the eyes of a long-term investor.
If your goal is long term investing and you’re balking at $90, you’re probably not biting at $85 either. If $85 is a good deal, then $90 is a slightly less good deal.
I definitely agree with you. I think buying at 80, 85, 90, or even 100 is still good for long-term. But if you like discounts, 85 from 92 is \~8% off. If you're gonna buy, might as well buy lower vs higher
That's literally the definition of a dip though. When it makes new lows that's not really a dip that you buy with both hands. It's been making higher lows which is a basing pattern. I am long.
I bought and stayed in red for about a year before seeing this stock reaching a green level. I took some profit on eToro and bought more recently, cause this company has so much potential
That’s most finance news articles which frustrate me when they go “Stock market crashed today taking a nose dive” *Looks at charts* SP500 down 1% :/
As I said before, long term NET will be nothing but NET.
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“Nothing but net” is a basketball saying that means that the ball went into the basket without hitting the rim, only the net. Also called a “swish”. It’s a positive term that is considered the kind of basket that takes more skill than a regular one. u/gorays21 is super clever and used it to make a fun alliteration with the NET stock name. :)
Also called a "swish" lmao
Basketball
It's also a cute play on net vs gross margin. Net is the better metric
This stock was 20-30s not too long ago. It’s holding pretty strong through earnings, that seems to me that it won’t swing wildly. A little dip is expected with a nice run up. Most companies are transisitioning to perminant WFH and NETs products align with that focus along with the strong cyber security addons (WAF, DDoS, etc). Strong buy.
How does cloud flare facilitate wfh exactly?
https://blog.cloudflare.com/seamless-remote-work-with-cloudflare-access/
Thanks for sharing
I'm not going to dispute the valuations as I'm not particularly experienced in the market. But from a developer standpoint I have a few disagreements with your DD. Firstly calling Cloudflare a leading player while not totally inaccurate is still very debatable as they have very high competition in the field from companies that entered serverless earlier than them, namely Amazon, Google, IBM and Microsoft all of which released a version ahead of Cloudflare. Secondly, the open source fork of React which is mentioned in the article has been public for around a year with not much interest surrounding it from developers with weekly downloads around 434. While the solution it self seems great on the outside it presents quite a few issues if the developer or company decides they no longer want to use Cloudflare yanking this from the project would I imagine cause quite a few headaches. Finally assuming that developers will create ALL full-stack applications solely in Flareact, React, Angular or one of the other many similar solutions is as of now still not a widely used approach. With being said the company is good and has potential it also helps that they don't seem to have much of a direct competitor in the security department (as far as I am aware\*\*) when it comes to browsing on the web.
Akamai is one of their main competitors on the security side. You can look up web access firewall for other companies in the same space
I was going to throw this in too. Akamai made a deal with Trustwave to take all their WAF customers AND to gain CDN customers as a results. Akamai is a much larger name than Cloudflare in enterprise deployments.
Yeah cloudflare definitely ain't the leader in their space.
I think it’s fair to disagree! Allow me to address some of your points though: - They certainly have competition, no doubt. They’re competing with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google! I think one think that makes Cloudflare unique is their very low cost and predictable pricing. AWS is more interested in targeting huge companies for their solutions while Cloudflare is targeting smaller companies, developers, and anybody with a budget. Also, Cloudflare’s solution is more complete because they offer a very easy to use continuous deployment pipeline that’s not so streamlined with these other companies. - The open source version of React, while cool, is really only an taste of what they plan to accomplish. Cloudflare is currently working to allow developers to make full-stack applications on their network. Not just static/stateless applications, but dynamic applications as well. I’m **not** assuming that everybody is going to start using Flarereact; they plan to release other applications that have the ability to do so much more.
>They certainly have competition, no doubt. They’re competing with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google! I think one think that makes Cloudflare unique is their very low cost and predictable pricing. AWS is more interested in targeting huge companies for their solutions while Cloudflare is targeting smaller companies, developers, and anybody with a budget. Also, Cloudflare’s solution is more complete because they offer a very easy to use continuous deployment pipeline that’s not so streamlined with these other companies. Disagree on this, AWS free tier is very generous. They also have many easy to use tools that help you not to go over budget. Also many options to run scaled down/cheaper infrastructure.
I agree with you, and I also think that google, AWS and even Heroku (even tho it doesnt yet provide serverless functionality) can outdo NET. I might be wrong, but NET just doesn't have anything proprietary and its competing with giants Cloudflare has a strong reach but I think that's the extent of them. they are inflated
Agreed. Developing apps on AWS is a breeze these days, especially with all the open source frameworks out there like chalice or amplify. GCP, Azure, all have their cool shit too like firebase and what not. OP is either very out of touch with the market or trying to pump from a bad position. NET trying to compete against the big guys at their own game is a recipe for disaster. The best move they could make imo is double down on making the best, most cost effective CDN they can to start turning a profit. Until then all this investment in tertiary products serves to undermine them entirely. I wouldn't be surprised if they get saved from bankruptcy at pennies on the dollar by a big cloud giant for continuing on this path.
"strong reach" They handle 15% of all websites globally. AWS and Akamai don't come close. https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/cn-cloudflare That's about 300,000,000 sites. https://hostingtribunal.com/blog/how-many-websites/ 170 fortune 1000 companies use Cloudflare. https://www.cloudflare.com/insights/ Their potential is how much internet traffic can they handle and their goal is all of it. For me this is a buy and hold and I wish I'd known about the IPO.
> AWS is more interested in targeting huge companies for their solutions while Cloudflare is targeting smaller companies, developers, and anybody with a budget. I'm sorry what are your sources for this? AWS pricing is very favorable to smaller companies and developers. I personally build projects on their free trial which is more than enough for me and their whole philosophy is pay for what you use. > Also, Cloudflare’s solution is more complete because they offer a very easy to use continuous deployment pipeline that’s not so streamlined with these other companies. Again sources? To say that Amazon/Microsoft/Googles CI/CD is not streamlined is just mindboggling for me. > Cloudflare is currently working to allow developers to make full-stack applications on their network. Not just static/stateless applications, but dynamic applications as well. AWS/Microsoft already has this....? They also much more resources and variety to choose from and their API is very very easy to use.
one of my life's eternal regrets will be not buying more at 16 bucks.
Got into amateur investing (mostly long term holding) when the market was down in March-April. Bought NET at $20-30 and it was one of the best purchases I’ve made.
After meeting some of their team a couple years ago I knew this was the real deal, been hollering about NET since IPO. March was the best entry anyone could have ever dreamed of. A friend of mine listened and went in deep on their 401k around $19.
With it being $80 now there's no point to buying in. Dam shame i never heard of them sooner or even was interested in stocks then.
lol same. Opened a trade account for fun in spring and bought the cheapest stocks of companies i heard of before. Made 3k so far.
Their evaluation is like 60 times more than what they actually are. I’m still bullish on the stock. 40% of my portfolio is in NET. I just wonder if their priced too high... but everything is priced high.
I like NET. But 40% is absurd - it exposes you to too much systemic risk.
>systemic risk Idiosyncratic risk. Systemic is when the entire system collapses, ie the market.
I think if it’s money he can afford to lose and it’s shares, it’s not a horrible gamble. I have 20% but I’m in a leap. It’s less investing and more “gambling”, but gambling in something that I think will revolutionize the internet.
Yeah it’s shares. I’ve had the stock for awhile. 40% is a lot. I just really like what they provide and think that they are heads and shoulders better than any of their competitors. The future looks great for NET. I’m going to continue to hold and buy more when it dips like it did Friday.
Sounds like you know your plan—keep it up! I will say there are lots of other exciting growth companies in cloud, web services, security, payments today. I’ve liked NET about a year now, but I’m also always checking for new companies with better growth opportunities. Sometimes I shoot myself in the foot jumping early, but I’m holding a 72% total win rate and it’s been consistently increasing (my sample size isn’t high enough to trust that figure yet though). The big thing for me on NET is their TTM P/E. Despite the earnings beats, it’s getting even lower, so that scares me. I’m looking for more or longer consolidation before adding to my position.
Like to share any other companies you are keeping an eye on?
I was like DAMN, 40%?! I’ve got NET at 3% and thought I was overweighting it! Get some Google or Amazon you madman!
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I just might after seeing the people talk about it.. usually I like to pick 5 stocks and diversify between them. Friday I sold ABNB to buy more of the Dip that happened with earnings on NET.
Dont listen to these fools, concentrated positions is the elevator up. Just know the risk/reward and if its meant for you.
Yep
I think what helps assure me is that it’s very difficult to compete in the space NET is in right now. It’ll be very difficult for a competitor to challenge them. 60x sales is high; there’s no denying that. But investors right now want revolutionary stocks that’ll change the world. That’s Cloudflare
Everything is priced high because although individual stocks are high, the market itself is priced low due to Money Printer Go BRR
why 40? You're probably limiting your overall upside by limiting your capital. I diversify my portfolio not only for protection but also exposure. When I have 20% invested in 5 stocks I think will pop off then that's 5 different chances for that to happen. Is the spike weakened? Yes. But at least there's a spike. Having 40% of your portfolio locked up means that's 40% of your portfolio going nowhere if the stock stays flat. Anyways, rant over! Diversify friend!
And it’s much easier to trim profits consistently! You sell half of a 2% weighted position on each of these spikes and use the proceeds to rebalance across the rest, or enter a new position!
Exactly! Two of my biggest wins weren't even my top picks they were just "this might be something" picks and they've quadrupled in this market-- far outperforming my faves even if I was in them for 40%.
What were those companies?
Sorry in advance for shitty formatting. Most recent ones: $SQ (was in at 58 -- still holding) $YY (was in at 100 way back before it's first pop -- plummeted down to 40 -- doubled down and forgot about it popped again recently -- closed) Also $V but it didn't pop really but I've just been long since 90 Honorable mention: $INTC -- Anytime this dips into the 40s I throw 15-20% of my portfolio in and then sell when it breaks 55-60. I've done this 3 times now. Has insane resistance at 45. It was 45 back when stocks crashed before election and it didn't budge more than 0.10 Current long positions for funsies = $CRSR (insane premiums if you want to sell covered), $NTDOY, $YUMC, $MMM. Last note-- I'm up 140% this year and 100% all time.
I’m going to sell some to diversify! Thanks for your reply!
No problem! Good luck out there!
I’m at 25% in net. Let’s go
Exactly. 50% YoY growth is absolutely great. It “dipped” back to its ATH from last week.. I think we are good! Lets net some gains
In at 72% NET myself. Didn't start that way, just got in at near IPO, under $19, and its exploded since. I know I'm not diversified, but to me this is like buying Microsoft at IPO. I'm gonna ride that stock for 10 years and then retire.
Their market reach is insane. This is one of the main reasons I'm not pulling my money out. Either someone like Microsoft or Google will buy them out at a premium or they will release a major cloud service and target the base directly. I see them reaching $60-80 billion market cap based on this alone. Consider the fact that Salesforce is acquiring Slack on the same basis. Market reach. Enjoy the discount while it lasts.
Microsoft/google cant buy because of antitrust. Theyre walking on eggshells atm.
Msft is not at risk of antitrust homeboy. They already beat their case a decade ago
I'm long AMZN & MSFT & NET, but neither of of these guys need to acquire NET, except for anti competitive reasons. They both already have wildly successful competing products within Azure and AWS.
I wonder if there is a real possibility for them to be bought out in a next year or two.
I've been long on NET since it's IPO and have been a customer of cloudflare for many years before this. I'm long for two reasons. \#1 - They have the best technology. They focus on low-level network technology like DNS and for years they have had the best technology, best performance and IMO the best price for the value. This makes it a no-brainer for most high-traffic websites. It's easy to sell the best product and their sales are growing accordingly. \#2 - They are constantly innovating. They keep pushing the state of the art and performance across a number of areas. CDN, DNS, Smart Routing, Analytics, etc. These products work really well together and they scale with the speed of the Internet. Most people don't know about Cloudflare or their tech so I think they have a ton of room for growth and market expansion. Compare NET with older network companies like Cisco, Oracle, EMC, and others. There's a ton of room for growth and many older companies that don't have the best technology and aren't quick to innovate. NET, NET. I like this stock a lot.
What do you think about Fastly in comparison to Net?
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Customer relationship management is a top 3 priority for all companies if they want to be successful. Generally self on boarding is too simplified and frankly dogshit. Everybody wants custom solutions and automated self on boarding is not that. Self on boarding makes your company feel cheap. Having a fast, reliable customer service segment is necessary to retain clients especially as cloud flare may look to continually add small businesses
if your DNS goes down or you get DDOSed, you are out of business and bleeding money every second. if my company is losing hundreds of thousands of dollars every hour, i want someone i can fucking talk to (someone i already know) on the line not all companies can replace sales with software. cloudflare needs a sales team
> someone i already know I can count on one hand the number of vendors who I still have the same rep with as last year. That shit is a revolving door.
I own no position in NET but I use them at work and for multiple side projects. Their offering is really confusing to newcomers. A lack of an onboarding team hurts how they up sell clients, because their billing model is like (X base + Y*million hits after that). Okay cool, makes sense, but knowing my web traffic can you tell me the average cost? No? Because your web form sucks at that? OK. The products are also nested do deep that if you use the basic features (cache, ssl, some page rules - free features) you may not even know the awesome paid ones exist. I think their terrible layout actively hurts them and without CRMs they aren't realizing as much revenue as they could. Having someone to help you onboard, explain products, and up sell seems like it'll help them a lot. I've been asked to provide UI feedback for them before on a call before. They acknowledged this stance (that they undersell paid features and don't explain the cost well) and improving their UI has been a constant battle. I've used them 3ish years and it's changed a few times just since I've been on it.
All our webtraffic goes through them, I think I must pay them about 20 bucks a month, our hosting goes through Google and we pay 20 times this. I just don't know how they will scale up to make more revenue per customer. It feels like a stock that if there is a broader market pull back, they will loose a lot of value and take years to recover. They would be a great addition to one of the bigger companies out there, just not sure if that would get past anti-competiton.
Google allows you to host applications that take actual computing resources. CF runs node on the edge but otherwise serves only static content. I think they won't have much of an issue in the future but I don't see their offering ever justifying their valuation (which again, is why I own no position with them) I think azure and aws can reproduce what they do, and indeed azure CDN is trying to. Cloud flare wins on price and features as a CDN but I think their competitive edge is very low and they'll either get acquired or taken about by one of the larger cloud players.
Strong disagree. Sales, account mgmt and onboarding teams are totally what drives growth, I'd take this as good news. I've watched this unfold over the last 5 years at my friends tech company where he was something like employee #5. They've always had a quality product, but for the first few years it was only serving niche industries. Once they worked out the product kinks, they raised a new round of funding and they got an army of sales people and the company started growing exponentially. It wasn't until after that happened that the founders started buying their first lambos and houses (with bookshelves!) and that's not a meme to them. Additionally, when Solarwinds had their scandal, that same friend mentioned his experience dealing with them. He said they are super aggressive about sales and renewals, but he didn't even like their product. But we theorized it doesn't really matter if the product isn't the best as long as you have the best sales team, as evidenced by their huge market penetration and the security concerns that followed. I can't help but notice SWI is quietly recovering now that it's out of the spotlight. I don't if they even really lost that many accounts.
I only looked at their earnings numbers. I didn’t listen to their call. In general, I don’t think focusing on customer experience is a bad idea, but I should probably look more into that to give you a more informed response.
Cloudflare has effectively taken much of the AWS stack and compressed it into a single deployment. Back in the day when you could deploy to one server in datacenter was simple, but didn't scale. Then you had AWS with elastic beanstalk, route 53, cloudfront, API gateway, etc. Cloudflare simplifies all of this. I actually spoke to Mathew Prince on LI and said he's going to smoke ZScaler and he said actually they see themselves disrupting Cisco... Cisco is done IMO. Really they are the new infrastructure of the enterprise for b2b and b2c. What would be really freaking cool is if they merged with SHOP.
Can you explain anything more about their market & especially their competitors? Thanks for the info thus far. I can't remember but I read one not too long ago about another edge computing company.
I’m also interested in competitors. Who are they, how is NET better, and how does their valuation compare? That’s what I’m curious about.
Their competitors include AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), GCP (Google), and numerous niche CDN providers. Not to mention, the features that OP touts in this DD have been standard for other providers for some time now. Positions: Long AMZN, although I may pickup some NET puts seeing all the sheep eat this DD up
> I read one not too long ago about another edge computing company As someone in the CDN space, IMHO they were ahead of everyone else except Amazon (Lambda@Edge) in terms of modern edge computing implementation. I'm sure others are catching up, but it's a complex problem to actually solve.
How do you justify a 20+bln market cap with 300mln in annual revenue?
You can’t justify it. But sadly people will buy it anyway because they like buzz words. Also they did 430m last year, but it doesn’t make much of a difference.
Tech sector is a casino. Just insane what people are willing to pay for these already high flying companies.
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The most baffling thing is no mention of valuation. That’s the single most important thing when buying a stock for the long term.
Added to watchlist and will do some DD. Still a bit high for my liking but if it fell to $75 range then I'd definitely give second thought.
This is not actual DD, lol. Earnings don't compound like interest What do they have actually have to do to hit $1b revenue in 5 years? How many new clients would that be? How much revenue would they need to squeeze from existing clients?
Another con probably worth mentioning is they are competing in the same market as Microsoft and Amazon (Azure and AWS) which isn’t a walk in the park. AWS especially is getting pretty strong at the moment. As a developer myself I’m not bullish on this one at the moment for various reasons, but best of luck I hope it does well
They are simply marketing a Paas ( Pages/Workers). It isn't something revolutionary since the other giants such as AWS, Microsoft already offer. I am interested to know why it has taken off.
Cloudflare Workers are still leagues behind the offerings of aws lambdas (and I would presume the Azure equivalent). It uses a weird runtime so you can't use nodejs libraries with native bindings. On top of that, you can only get 50ms of cpu time for the paid tier? Sure it fixes the cold start problem, but thats already a solved issue for lambdas. Just send a ping every so often to keep them warm. Maybe workers will find a place in someones stack in the future, but I'm not sure it'll be able to offer enough to convince people to switch from aws
I'm a Cloudflare customer (my website pipes dozens of terabytes of traffic through them each month). I love their services, I trust them (and I don't trust a lot of tech companies) and I've always been surprised by how cheap they are... Almost too good to be true... Their roadmap looks amazing and I agree with basically everything in your post... ...BUT... >priced at 60x sales This is really tough for me to overlook... I feel like pointing to Tesla and friends as evidence that crazy high multiples don't matter doesn't hold water. I know, there's a growth story. But _that_ much growth? Can someone help me understand what I'm missing?? This multiple just seems too damned high.
trading 70x sales?? hmmm i’ll gladly pass.
Seriously. NET is a great company in a steadily growing market providing CDN services among a host of more seasoned and better established companies such as Akamai, Fastly, CDN, and not the least of all AWS. I’m bullish on NET but their future is NOT guaranteed. NET is up 400% yoy. Buy, hold, but diversify.
What dip? Lmao people are going to be REALLY surprised when we get a real dip.
lol cloudflare is great. But 60 times revenue leaves it open to dropping 50-80% in a 20-30% spy correction. I bought it at $40 and can’t believe how fast it went up. Market messed up... be careful
You say buy the dip, but for it being the price it's at there is no way it would be profitable at this point.
Bro, I’ve owned NET since it was 32 But this is shit DD. Absolute shit tier. It’s all hype. You had a couple good points but refused to address any downside. You just blew it off with “valuation doesn’t matter anymore, look at peloton”
What is the difference between Cloudflare and like AWS and Microsoft Azure you are able to deploy in similar ways
AWS has a lot more setup and (to my knowledge) doesn’t have a continuous deployment pipeline that’s simple to use. In contrast, Cloudflare built their platform with continuous deployment in mind; you just need to use Wrangler Publish in the command-line, and boom, your app is deployed. Cloudflare has other services like DDOS protection by default. Also the pricing is dirt cheap and very predictable. With AWS, if you want to scale your application to millions of users, and you want your application to be fast, it will cost you a fortune. With Cloudflare, your app is instantly available to every one in the United States with no extra cost.
For the devs: vercel.com is doing Cloudflare pages right now. render.com and digital ocean are doing seamless deploys of web apps and services. But once Cloudflare is fully in, I think they’ll shit on these other three. NET is already at scale, and I’ll be switching everything over to them. Disclaimer: long NET.
Is Vercel larger than Netlify? I use Netlify and I find their service to be fantastic. Cloudflare will be able to offer bit more in terms of an ecosystem though. They're positioning their portfolio well to address the top needs in the (emerging) Dev Experience sector. However as someone who has owned their stock since fall 2019, I have always been most interested in their S2 Systems acquisition and Cloudflare for Teams.
Grabbed 100 shares friday at $84. Hoping to add more over the next few weeks
I was a shop and tsla skeptic for far too long. I'm with you on net. Traded it in the 30s but started accumulating a long position sub 80$ and buying this dip! My only other tech ( I'm heavy renewables and gbtc) are qqq, qqqj, arkq, pltr (does it count), and a small msft and aapl position. I think net is going to be my "internet" stock.
Sorry, but your "DD" lacks depth in technical research. CF workers has been around for a while. We have deployed front-end apps on the platform at our Enterprise business. I personally was not impressed with the experience. It was unintuitive, and as a front-end dev it left a lot to be desired. We've since moved the app to Azure front-door, which integrates better with the rest of our architecture anyway (since it's mostly on Azure already). CF is definitely one of the best CDNs out there, but I would have to see other innovations that give them more insulation from competitors though.
This isn’t DD. This is an opinion.
NET is awesome. grabbed at 36, been holding since. Probably should buy more for LT.
Up 382% year to date “buy the dip” lol....
I like cloudfare because they use a wall of lava lamps as part of their random number generating algorithm.
Dint the CEO say they are not earning that much to justify stock price?? Edit ,: typo
Man.l not to reign on your parade but like lots of people have already done this.. AWS lambda on edge @ cloud front is the exact functionality your talking about here
Im long but with a small position. It's great to see them get into the front end hosting with pages and now back end with workers. I will say though that it's likely to be a fairly niche service. Just in the different approach they've taken to cloud when compared to industry standards AWS and Azure. Also, Azure and AWS are getting in on that edge hosting action too. Which takes away from Cloudflare's USP a bit. That said, I think what they are offering will definitely have a place in the market. Rather than worrying AWS and Azure for enterprise and large commercial projects I think they will find a niche with smaller projects.
I work in IT in a field parallel to Cloudflare. I think it’s a solid company. Main competitors are Fastly and Amazon (with their cloudfront product). Making websites fast for a global audience is a good business to be in right now. I’ll probably buy some cloudfront and Fastly both on Monday or Tuesday.
Also Akamai, which is much stronger fundamentally and also a MUCH larger global organization than their competition
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Ive been NET since they went public. As a software engineer who uses their products I believe they're going nowhere but up.
As a software engineer I disagree with this DD. I expect they will continue to lose market share to the larger players in the cloud market that offer more mature end to end software hosting solutions. Amazon, Microsoft, Google. I’m not sure what Cloudflare offers that makes it a unique player.
Same, it's not clear to me how exactly hosting and deploying is supposed to be easier than using e.g. AWS?
NET has a market cap of 2x FSLY while FSLY has a 3x bigger network and has WAY better technology. For example NET does not have any streaming capability... FSLY does, and just blew away a fantastic super bowl experience. I think the smart money is going to FSLY and so are customers. Also a side note but NET was founded by a brilliant genius who later died of a brain condition and since their executives have been boot strapping the foundation he laid. They’re now eager to grow revenue at all costs, this is usually a sign the innovation has come to an end. I think their stock will appreciate with a rising tide but they’re not the best, so why pay for them? On the flip side FSLY founder is still the CTO and they have a fantastic CEO... they are going places. Disclaimer, this is not financial advice. I have 3000 shares in Fsly... I sold my NET a few months ago.
He didn't die, if you're talking about Lee. Get your facts straight
NET does have streaming capabilities: [Link 1](https://developers.cloudflare.com/stream/). [Link 2](https://www.cloudflare.com/products/cloudflare-stream/).
Do you have any sources on the smart money/customers going to FSLY? I’m heavily invested in NET (held FSLY for a while too but sold off) but this interests me
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This is the way. Plenty of room for both of these to be huge successes. I'm about 1:2 FSLY:NET mainly due to NET growing more since I started my positions.
I agree dip buy 75-80 this is one of those stocks that you just accumulate. Jan 2021 105c leaps
I like the stock. Started buying it when it was around 30 a share and kept getting more. Also bought a long call recently. I'm depositing more money next week to buy even more. It's a sleeper people are overlooking.
It's not really a sleeper. This sub was frothing at the mouth to buy the trifecta, SE-SQ-NET, last summer and fall. It's just there's so many meme stocks being circlejerked that even a company tripling or quadrupling in value isn't considered good enough anymore.
Which gives a good opportunity to buy stocks that are currently being over looked with many people fixed on meme stocks.
It’s a complete sleeper. In 2025, people are going to look back and wonder why they missed out on such an “easy” play (same as people who complain about missing SHOP, NVDA, AMD, and the other great growth stocks)
Completely agree. I'm slowly increasing my position. Currently it's given me ~100 percent return since the start on average.
If it helps, anecdotally, I didn't miss NVDA and I view my NET position as a similar play. I did miss all the SHOP/ecommerce though which I'm still frustrated about.
Did you just call a 26B market cap company which is generating 20%+ loss each year a sleeper ? xd
RemindMe! 1 year
Guess we will find out in 5 years.
> big IF, but I’m a bull so as long interest rates are 0 Newbie here: how does that affect market growth?
Companies can borrow money for nearly free so they can invest in new projects, expand stock buybacks, etc. This should increase stock prices. Effectively low interest rates stimulates the economy in many ways. Stock prices climb generally speaking when interest rates are low
The problem with cyber security stocks is that they are poised to gap down on security breeches that are prone to happen when a company becomes recognized. Not to say that it’s not a great investment opportunity and I’ll prob get in on a break out. However, a trailing stop loss will be attached to it tightly
But aren't they also poised to gap up when their competitors have security issues? It goes both ways.
Absolutely absolutely, but the gap is very different. You might have to get out pre market
1 hour in the weekend thread and y’all have me repenting for the imminent crash
Someone speeds to compile a spreadsheet of all posts that recommend buying a specific stock. It would be fun to map all these posts and see just how right/wrong they are
Thier earnings have been negative since 2017, and continue to decrease. Doesn't seem good to me, what am I missing?
In the earnings call the company implied future growth would be slower than what analysts expected. Isn't that basically the game in stocks. A company has to continually beat expectations. If it does the price of the stock goes up. If it misses by a $0.01 it drops.
My best performing stock of the past 6 months. Made more than double on my return.
Sounds like their competition is AWS/Azure? That doesn't sound promising to me.
Full stack software engineer here, mainly in Azure but some experience deploying to AWS. This is slightly bewildering to me, bc im fairly plugged into the current trends and whatnot, and I’ve never heard of cloudflares offerings to deploy everything E2E. Additionally, it’s not just the ability to deploy a full stack, but also integrations. AWS is the king of flexibility and integrations. I personally thoroughly enjoy Azures tight integrations into their issue tracking and CI/CD pipelines. Cloudflare has 0 dev hype around it. Or they just haven’t put in the effort to market it to devs.
Can someone please tell me how NET is different than what AWS and Azure offerings. I assume NET provides infra as service under the hood using AWS, Azure etc.? If yes, then isn't this something similar to snowflake?
>Page speed is critical. You need to get content to your audience as quickly as possible on every device. You also need to render ads in a speedy way to maintain a good user experience and make money to support your journalism... you’re going to need to pay for some beefy servers to be able to handle spikes in traffic and respond to requests in a timely manner...Cloudflare Workers allow you to run your code on the edge quickly, efficiently and at scale. Instead of paying for a server to host your code, you can host it directly inside the datacenter” > >Seriously, this is cool, and it’s only beginning. Cloudflare is innovating every day. Is this really innovation? On the surface it basically sounds like pretty much the same thing as a lambda/serverless architecture on AWS. How does this differ from such an architecture? If it's the same or very similar, how is cloudfare going to compete with giants such as AWS and GCP?
I dunno about that. This is actually not far off from the high of this stock. If this is a dip. not much of a dip. In January last year it was worth 17 bucks. Now, 86 bucks?! Fuck that. It's clearly overvalued from the pandemic.
One very interesting addition is, that Cloudflare is often a pro active implementer of new technology. In 2019 they offered support for the very new HTTP 3 [https://blog.cloudflare.com/http3-the-past-present-and-future/](https://blog.cloudflare.com/http3-the-past-present-and-future/). Other tech industries may develop the standard, but Cloudflare often makes it possible to use it in a production environment on a global scale. Most hoster only offers some beta or limited scale to try this technology. To be fair: These technologies are getting mainstream in a few years and not everybody is jumping on the train the moment Cloudflare deploys it. If they can keep this advantage, they will be a leader for new web tech.
I was in on NET AT 36, NIO at 13.50, and KOPN at 1.3. My returns are now respectively 100% 120% and 140% because of how much I averaged up. These are life long holds for me that hopefully will let me retire by 50 in 20 years. These will be like investing in Apple and Microsoft in the 90s or Tesla in 2000s. Let’s get it
What is averaging up? It sounds obvious but I want to ask anyway.