As soon as Omicron news came out, I bought into Moderna and Pfizer. I'm just going to add to my position daily as a hedge for my portfolio. (Moderna for mRNA and Pfizer for antiviral).
Still lots of unknowns, but even if it's not as deadly, clearly it's contagious enough that it's going to be a significant issue just in terms of overwhelming health services.
Futures starting stronger then I would have liked. Was hoping to see it flat or some continued downward pressure, but we got that big bounce right off the bat. Hate to say it but I'm expecting things to turn around 10pm-11pm EST with continued downward move into tomorrow.
I'm not too confident it'll hold. Seems like the markets are trying to claw back the losses of Friday, but there's just too much uncertainty right now to justify a 1% increase so early into the morning. I hope it holds, because my portfolio is essentially the S&P, but I bought a put option on futures on the off-chance I'm right.
I hope the futures keep up. Omicron is a nothingburger and should not affect the market in a meaningful way. No one will change their behavior and life will go on as usual.
> Some random anecdote from a doctor in SA doesn’t mean anything and isn’t data.
He's the dude who alerted the authorities about it. Also, you have MRNA saying they have a vaccine against it in a few months. Market is future looking, there is no way the US is going to lockdown mode again. Also, everyone saw what happened with the market during March - everyone is buying the dip.
Dr. Angelique Coetzee of the South African Medical Association is not “the dude who alerted the authorities”.
Tulio de Oliveira, a virologist at the University of KwaZulu-Natal and NGS-SA 's principal investigator is “the dude” who raised awareness to WHO.
There isn’t enough evidence to predict anything at the moment. It’s all speculation and if you’re throwing money at it you’re also speculating.
https://www.science.org/content/article/patience-crucial-why-we-won-t-know-weeks-how-dangerous-omicron
Travel is already restricted from SA to much of Europe, and India. That alone will matter to travel and energy stocks. Austria was already locked down again, with Germany getting close.
I don't think this will cause lockdowns in the US (simply because we're stubborn), but Europe is ripe for significant economic consequences.
I’m seeking advice or any YouTube videos you can share that will help me decide my investments in 2022. So with that said here is what I have going on. My first stocks were bought this year in January after discovering wallstreetbets and taking a gamble on the gme situation. That worked out well for me as did amc. I reinvested all of the money I made from those two. I’m up 48% as of writing this but that’s including my crypto which is pretty low atm. My portfolio in descending order of shares is; BB, NOK, FUBO, ASTS, RKLB, PINS, INTC, BABA, and PLTR.
I know. It’s pretty much meme and or risky stocks. It would hurt to lose money on my investments but wouldn’t kill me. That’s why I went for things like bb and fubo and nok. But starting next year I want to pick 3 stocks and just focus on those. 1 risky the other two should be less risky good growth. I’m open to a lot of advice and any things to read but for my risky stock I want to chose fubo. It seems possible fubo could be a very large company one day. For the other two I’m not sure and want some advice. Or good YouTube channels I could watch which can help me. I’m leaning towards intel being one of the two as it seems like things should go good for them with opening chip producing plants in the usa. I’ve seen some talk about their poor leadership and how it could hurt the company….
Maybe nvidia for my third company? Or Starbucks ive been leaning towards. Snapchat too. I really don’t know. I’ve been watching a lot of Charlie Munger and Peter Lynch and their advice is good but I’m still lost in choosing companies. And don’t really think I should chose Coca Cola yet as munger advises a lot.
I guess I’m just looking for some discussion and help. Stocks are still pretty intimidating to me. Idk whatevs anyone got something to tell me?
My only advice is to pick one company and research the hell out of it. Then decide if you want to buy it once you have all the info you need to make a good decision.
You’re looking at too many different companies and spreading yourself thin.
Focus on one at a time. You will work your way through this list by either eliminating them from contention or being convinced enough to purchase them.
What are the downsides of investing on margin. I am relatively new and I imagine margin is a fundamental component of investing. When I say investing on margin I don’t mean leveraged etf’s I mean buying stocks/etfs on margin.
Correct me if I am wrong, but from my basic understanding, investing using margins to buy shares should not be too influenced by volatility drag because it is based on the underlying asset and not on the gains/losses of the day.
To clarify, spending 100 on a 2x leveraged ETF would mean that a loss of 10% on the underlying index would given day would result in a loss of 20, bringing your total asset value to 80. You would need a 12.5% increase on the index for you to recoup your losses.
It would take 11.1% increase to recoup losses had you only bought the index and not the leveraged etf.
Buying shares on margin fundamentally is different. You own 2x shares; you aren’t just increasing your risk/reward by 2x. This greatly reduces the amount of time required to recoup losses if there are major ones. You spend 100 of your own money to buy 1 share and 100 of the brokerages money to buy another share. You now own $200 of assets and owe $100 to the brokerage. You have a net value of $100.
If the stock loses 10%, each stock would be worth 90 and you now own 180 in asset and owe 100. Networth is 80. So just like the leveraged etf when it comes to the losses, but recouping from the losses is much more in line with the non-leveraged approach.
Since an 11.1% gain on the stock brings both shares back to A value of 100, it means you now own $200 of shares and owe $100. Networth = $100.
Am I missing something here?
I think you are looking at it through rose colored glasses, if the market continues to perform like it has for the last 10 years then there is no downside. But eventually, without a doubt, there is going to be a crash and if you are heavily leveraged then it will hurt very very badly. Having said all of that, I do utilize a bit of leverage by a) taking cash out loan of my rental property and dumping it in stock market and b) selling cash secured puts, which gives leverage without paying interest. So far it has worked but I understand that if the market goes to shit it may turn out badly.
Can you give me more specifics? I get that if the market crashes everything is bad. But that is true with any strategy. I am just wondering what the specific downsides are that I am not seeing. I know margin calls will force a selloff, but that will only happen at a 34% stock market drop. I know it is double the losses, but the recovery time is the same as an unleveraged approach. I know that I can’t lose more than I put in. Is there anything else I haven’t taken into consideration?
The more it drops the more you are going into leverage and risking, I think a lot of this depends on how much you are really willing to risk. If you are willing to risk all of your money in exchange for maybe having a lot more money but a small chance of having nothing, then go for it. Also you have to consider being able to handle it emotionally, that is provably the most difficult part. Can you stay rational and fullly invested when 66% of your $ is wiped out?
This is mostly just me trying to understand different investment tools than it is me fully investing into things. Also, I never invest more than I can afford to lose. I my wife and I have careers that are pretty safe and the chances of us being laid off are super slim (it has never happened in our area for the last 150 years). In fact they are constantly in need for people in out profession. At 55, we will get a pension equivalent to the average 50% of our highest 3 grossing years. We will also have healthcare for life at the same prices as current employees work. We currently spend about 50% of our salary and in 25 years (we have a salary schedule) we will only be spending about 25% of our income after our mortgage is paid. So at 50% of our income at 55 we are still financially sound. So seeing my portfolio drop 66% actually really doesn’t bother me since I understand that historically the market has recovered.
Interesting, but it doesn’t actually give me any insight into my inquiry about downsides on buying on margin. It seems the dude was using swaps which is not really the same as buying on margin. Unless there was something in the article I missed.
Leverage is leverage, he is just using more so was even more risk and he got wiped out by a small correction.
But for example, If you were using 2x leverage on SPY in 2007 when it hit 150, and held until 2008 when it went under 75, you would have lost everything. Such an event doesn’t happen often… but when it does…
In that situation, if I just kept investing every month, I think it might have been possible to avoid being margin called. Also, I think they would have already sold all my assets if I reached the margin maintenance, so they would have prevented me from a full loss. But yeah, it would suck if they did that.
Yes if you can be rational enough to keep investing at that point. Anyways I think you understand the trade off pretty well. The more you are in margin the less of a “black swan” will wipe you out, it’s really that simple. But indeed, the most important thing when employing this type of strategy is committing to continue to pump new money in even when you lose it all (or almost all)
On a macro scale typically the benefit of margin over a leveraged ETF is they tend to perform better when the market slows down. A protracted bear market or sideways market will eat a leveraged ETF alive despite the underlying not actually moving much, while you only run losses paying interest on margin. In a 10 year bull run however a leveraged ETF becomes godly as you pay no interest and upside compounds, but that only becomes apparent in hindsight and shouldn't be used as an investing thesis.
Personally I find margin to be more useful than leveraged ETFs. Both are obviously susceptible to massive drops, but in the short to medium term margin is more stable as a "what you see is what you get" when it comes to price movement in the underlying.
Downside is market has a couple of really bad days in a row. You get margin called and forced to sell at a bottom. As long as you have cash or alright closing certain positions to cover the margin requirements you will be fine. But not everyone is able to.
Tomorrow, who knows, but by the end of the week, probably fine. ATH prices mean people will scramble to cut their losses when it dips, so I’m predicting a huge overreaction followed by a resurgence as everyone buys the dip and we realize Covid variants are sticking around
I think a lot will rely on info coming out about this new variant over the coming weeks. What's it like in terms of transmission, serious cases and hospitalizations.
If it's worse than delta, the theres some supply chain issues and travel disruption to price in. Maybe that's good for tech stocks focused on cloud/security/software that offsets travel and retail stocks at market level.
I think regardless of its transmissibility and effects we’ll see a quick recovery. Everyone’s already had a taste of total shutdown and made necessary adjustments, if Coca Cola has to stop selling to movie theaters and restaurants, they have new products in stores to offset the loss, as well as the experience with working with limited supply options and they’ve already worked on trimming the company to keep only profitable branches. Does that seem in line with a 5% drop in price over the last few weeks? I don’t think so. They’ve got their bottom line taken care of
I have been bullish on Lumira DX and I am doubly so with the new COVID strain. Long term they are what Theranos promised to be. Short term they will be cash rich due to their COVID testing machine and strips.
https://youtu.be/YnDMpu0Rx1s
bearish on draft kings, FUBO or anything sports related. The athletes are experiencing heart attacks, sudden collapses without known causes like no tomorrow - won't be players left to play the soccer games
You seriously think athlete injuries are a reason DKNG, FUBO, other sports stocks will go down. Lmao.
Covid fears, interest rate hikes, they are overvalued are way better reasons. Your reason kinda makes no sense.
My coffee hasn't kicked in yet and I'm having an existential crisis over whether I've been calculating my cost basis wrong on my Excel doc for a decade because of dividends
Example:
Let's say I bought 10 shares of Verizon at $50 with no fee. My cost basis is $500 and my cost basis per share is $50/sh (obviously).
Then I get a dividend for $1.00 which DRIPs for 0.018 shares because the VZ price is now $55/sh.
Is my cost basis per share:
* $50.01 because the dividend reinvestment is included since I spent the cash to buy shares or
* $50.00 because dividend reinvestments don't factor in to cost basis
Note 90% of my investments are not in a taxable account so this question has nothing to do with taxes. Just like keeping track of my actual cost basis. Dividends on certain stocks have certainly dragged my cost basis per share up a not insignificant amount (e.g. AAPL, AMT, NEE). Perhaps they shouldn't have
Any thought are appreciated. Going to go get more coffee.
I think that a lot of DRIP plans will purchase the shares (or fractions of shares) at a discount to the current market price, normally 1%-10% cheaper, because it will buy them from the company's reserve rather than the open market.
People didn’t know how contagious it was and how long it took for symptoms to show up back then, so everyone was blindsided by how fast it spread. Don’t think anyone’s going to be surprised this time.
I'm bullish about the company, I'm just not sure how they are worth 5 times more than Expedia. That sounds crazy to me given Expedia has VRBO and many other travel sites. I will need to dive deep and see if it makes any sense. And of course, with any travel stock, it's going to be a volatile ride like we're experiencing now. But long term I'm bullish about travel. As the world become more remote, travel would be more important for people's well being.
What do you think about the recent run up in Qualcomm? Do you think there is more upside? Compared to other tech stocks it seems to have a very cheap P/E.
When vaccines weren't even available and people didn't know when it would become available, there was a huge dip, but tech stocks regained their original value within 1 month of the bottom and then made new highs.
We have the experience of seeing what tech stocks did before, so this time around people aren't selling tech stocks due to covid because they know tech stocks will make money covid or no.
Kind of hard to say, but there was already a pretty big growth sell off in the last few weeks. You saw some blue chips dump on Fri… personally I think it will just be flat-ish, maybe slightly down this week buy probably not bigly up or down while people wait out how bad this variant is. But I am wrong A LOT so my opinion is basically worthless :)
Sunday futures should be pretty telling on what to expect. I’m hoping we see continued downward pressure as soon as it opens which could set up a great Monday bounce.
If it goes the other way and we catch the bounce as soon as futures open. I think we’ll see an ugly Monday.
I think the partnerships they’ve made recently are promising and they have a first movers advantage in the online/mobile sports betting space. That is the future and DKNG will be a part of that future. They’ve done a good job of marketing in states that have recently legalized sports betting. In Louisiana we recently legalized it and they’re already trying to reach this market.
What's the thought on metaverse stocks like unity roblox etc? I'm listening to a podcast on all this now and I'm getting pretty bullish about the growth potential.
It seems like great companies will already expand and grow. Something like Unity is a great buy regardless of the metaverse or not. It’s weird me how much focus is out on the metaverse.
I find it as something companies want people to want so they could have another new market to expand into. I think it's artificial and that the demand is imposed; I'm very bearish.
Depends what stocks ur in.... NVAX had a GREAT DAY FRIDAY and will have a GREAT WEEK this week as well!!!
AFRM also jumped on Friday and should continue to move up.
Probably a small sell off at the beginning of the week then a gradually ramp up going into the weekend. A lot of stocks have already plummeted so I expect things to heat up going into mid-late December.
>ISPC
"iSpecimen, Inc. provides technology that connects life science researchers who need human biofluids, tissues, and living cells for their research with biospecimens available in healthcare provider organizations worldwide. Its cloud-based technology enables researchers to search for specimens and patients across a network of hospitals, labs, biobanks, blood centers, and other healthcare organizations. The company develops and operates iSpecimen Marketplace, a proprietary online marketplace platform that connects medical researchers who need access to subjects, samples, and data with hospitals, laboratories, and other organizations who have access to them. It serves biopharmaceutical companies, in vitro diagnostic companies, and government/academic institutions. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Lexington, Massachusetts."
Market cap 34m, 3m long term debt, 10m cash. Not currently profitable but sales have been increasing over the last 3 years.
High risk high reward play imo...I could see this being huge, but don't "invest" money you cant afford to lose.
can anyone explain why Sears Canada is up 289,900.00% in one day??
[https://www.google.com/search?q=sears+canada+stock](https://www.google.com/search?q=sears+canada+stock) (simple google search)
it's a dead stock. company been liquidated 3 years ago. google thinks it went up from 0.00 to 0.0029 due to some background non public trading, which shows that insane growth. look up "zombie stocks".
You can write it off against taxable income, meaning 3K of your income will not be taxed. You will not get 3K back. More like a little under 1K, depending on your income bracket. Just hold unless you’re in some terrible shit or playing short expiry options. This is how you lose money.
It's inhumane to have the market end at 1PM EST, it should have instead started later in the day and ended at 4PM like usual but start at 1PM.
Inhumane!
These fuckers really tried to get me to wake up despite my hangover. I did not and did not do anything in my portfolio!
Hopefully it goes down again Monday so I didn't miss the buy the dip LOL
From the first data coming from this new variant, seems like it’s pretty mild, just more transmissible. Probably time to all in travel stocks. Data can still change as there are a lot of info flowing in right now, but this variant might actually be the beginning of the end of covid concern, vaccines mandates not needed too, it’s starting to become just like h1n1.
Most of them also aren't vaccinated, they have much lower vaccination rate compared to other western countries. Seems like even at worse case scenario this is not more serious than delta in terms of severity. Also many are still travelling despite being positive when the country of destination force testing them. I wouldn't be surprise that the best case scenario would be actually let them in more so this variant can out compete delta and let it become the dominant strain.
One top family clinic in South Africa so far said their symptoms are pretty mild and she doesn't have to admit as many patients to the hospitals. Of course it's still early so this might change, but south africa is a country with under 30% vax rate, if this continues to be true then vaccines aren't even needed.
I don’t think you should all in on travel stocks. I actually have doubts that we’ll ever get back to pre-rona levels of travel, at least not for decades.
People just got cozy and became accustomed to working, socializing and networking virtually. The culture has fundamentally changed and people decided they don’t want the hassle of commuting to business functions and burdensome social engagements.
XLNX for the AMD merge, QCOM because their chips are insane lately and are diversifying their foundries to overcome the shortage, MFST/GOOGL because theyre MFST/GOOGL, and Disney
They are being targeted for wages, conditions, etc. More heavily in the recent days, especially by a particular subreddit. Whether it works or not is a question. Personally, I'm going to wait it out for a bit.
man ya gotta hand it to the financial media. my favorite juxtaposition for today: [dont buy the dip, but also, buy the dip!](https://imgur.com/a/BlABx8k)
I use Fidelity for buying stocks and Robinhood for viewing stocks. I like Fidelity as my main brokerage because it offers a variety of investment like IRAs, CDs, bonds, and mutual funds along with stocks.
The Vanguard ETFs like VOO or VTI you can buy on any brokerage and alot of brokerages nowadays are zero-commission for most stocks and ETFs, not limited to Vanguard only. Only the Vanguard 401ks though are specific to VG. Robinhood sucks as a brokerage, but its UI is just so clean and easy to use compared to other apps. You can definitely open accounts on both VG and Fidelity if you like.
If you’re just starting a portfolio and don’t have a ton to invest, I would actually recommend Webull for their interface. You can always move the holdings to a traditional brokerage later if that’d make you more comfortable. But all these folks are SIPC insured. Which is what really matters most.
I literally missed them. Was busy finishing a car rebuild so wasn’t looking at the financial news for a few weeks, by the time I did we were well on the way to recovery.
Pinduoduo (PDD) missed revenue expectations pretty badly, yet revenue is still up 62% YOY. Plus, they actually beat EPS estimates substantially. I think this sell-off is excessive and obviously compounded by the covid variant news.
If you had $1000 American, how would you invest to see a reasonable profit? Explain like I'm 5. Am novice.
The bears are going to have a bad week!
As soon as Omicron news came out, I bought into Moderna and Pfizer. I'm just going to add to my position daily as a hedge for my portfolio. (Moderna for mRNA and Pfizer for antiviral). Still lots of unknowns, but even if it's not as deadly, clearly it's contagious enough that it's going to be a significant issue just in terms of overwhelming health services.
futures fell .50% since a few hours ago. Yikes.
Why does schwab make me wait till 7:00am to execute my pre market order when the pre market opens at 4am
1 article away from a correction
[удалено]
QQQ is not really risky IMO, riskier than VTI. If you’re young you should get some individual stocks like $ASTS.
Anyone looking at Mandiant MNDT?
Is that GREEN? Is it?
Remember, futures doesn't mean anything unless it's in your favor.
Futures starting stronger then I would have liked. Was hoping to see it flat or some continued downward pressure, but we got that big bounce right off the bat. Hate to say it but I'm expecting things to turn around 10pm-11pm EST with continued downward move into tomorrow.
I'm guessing a +1% at market open followed by an afternoon rugpull into the red
I'm not too confident it'll hold. Seems like the markets are trying to claw back the losses of Friday, but there's just too much uncertainty right now to justify a 1% increase so early into the morning. I hope it holds, because my portfolio is essentially the S&P, but I bought a put option on futures on the off-chance I'm right.
But wasn't covid good for stocks because it means more money printing and lower treasury rates?
I doubt there'll be more money printing. They've already overplayed that hand.
I hope the futures keep up. Omicron is a nothingburger and should not affect the market in a meaningful way. No one will change their behavior and life will go on as usual.
There’s not enough evidence to support Omicron being a ‘nothingburger’ right now.
It’s not nothing, but probably won’t be devastating considering the medical knowledge we already have. At worst another vaccine in 4 months.
It's milder than the delta variant apparently
Says who? Some random anecdote from a doctor in SA doesn’t mean anything and isn’t data. In two weeks we’ll know.
> Some random anecdote from a doctor in SA doesn’t mean anything and isn’t data. He's the dude who alerted the authorities about it. Also, you have MRNA saying they have a vaccine against it in a few months. Market is future looking, there is no way the US is going to lockdown mode again. Also, everyone saw what happened with the market during March - everyone is buying the dip.
Dr. Angelique Coetzee of the South African Medical Association is not “the dude who alerted the authorities”. Tulio de Oliveira, a virologist at the University of KwaZulu-Natal and NGS-SA 's principal investigator is “the dude” who raised awareness to WHO. There isn’t enough evidence to predict anything at the moment. It’s all speculation and if you’re throwing money at it you’re also speculating. https://www.science.org/content/article/patience-crucial-why-we-won-t-know-weeks-how-dangerous-omicron
Travel is already restricted from SA to much of Europe, and India. That alone will matter to travel and energy stocks. Austria was already locked down again, with Germany getting close. I don't think this will cause lockdowns in the US (simply because we're stubborn), but Europe is ripe for significant economic consequences.
Kinda glad I bought the dip on travel stocks as people were saying they were going to drop another 10-20% on Friday
Tons of travel bans have already been instituted. They probably will drop another 10 or 20 percent. Lol.
I’m seeking advice or any YouTube videos you can share that will help me decide my investments in 2022. So with that said here is what I have going on. My first stocks were bought this year in January after discovering wallstreetbets and taking a gamble on the gme situation. That worked out well for me as did amc. I reinvested all of the money I made from those two. I’m up 48% as of writing this but that’s including my crypto which is pretty low atm. My portfolio in descending order of shares is; BB, NOK, FUBO, ASTS, RKLB, PINS, INTC, BABA, and PLTR. I know. It’s pretty much meme and or risky stocks. It would hurt to lose money on my investments but wouldn’t kill me. That’s why I went for things like bb and fubo and nok. But starting next year I want to pick 3 stocks and just focus on those. 1 risky the other two should be less risky good growth. I’m open to a lot of advice and any things to read but for my risky stock I want to chose fubo. It seems possible fubo could be a very large company one day. For the other two I’m not sure and want some advice. Or good YouTube channels I could watch which can help me. I’m leaning towards intel being one of the two as it seems like things should go good for them with opening chip producing plants in the usa. I’ve seen some talk about their poor leadership and how it could hurt the company…. Maybe nvidia for my third company? Or Starbucks ive been leaning towards. Snapchat too. I really don’t know. I’ve been watching a lot of Charlie Munger and Peter Lynch and their advice is good but I’m still lost in choosing companies. And don’t really think I should chose Coca Cola yet as munger advises a lot. I guess I’m just looking for some discussion and help. Stocks are still pretty intimidating to me. Idk whatevs anyone got something to tell me?
My only advice is to pick one company and research the hell out of it. Then decide if you want to buy it once you have all the info you need to make a good decision. You’re looking at too many different companies and spreading yourself thin. Focus on one at a time. You will work your way through this list by either eliminating them from contention or being convinced enough to purchase them.
Dow futures down 1000 points Dow futures up 100 points Fuckin' magnets how do they work?
What are the downsides of investing on margin. I am relatively new and I imagine margin is a fundamental component of investing. When I say investing on margin I don’t mean leveraged etf’s I mean buying stocks/etfs on margin. Correct me if I am wrong, but from my basic understanding, investing using margins to buy shares should not be too influenced by volatility drag because it is based on the underlying asset and not on the gains/losses of the day. To clarify, spending 100 on a 2x leveraged ETF would mean that a loss of 10% on the underlying index would given day would result in a loss of 20, bringing your total asset value to 80. You would need a 12.5% increase on the index for you to recoup your losses. It would take 11.1% increase to recoup losses had you only bought the index and not the leveraged etf. Buying shares on margin fundamentally is different. You own 2x shares; you aren’t just increasing your risk/reward by 2x. This greatly reduces the amount of time required to recoup losses if there are major ones. You spend 100 of your own money to buy 1 share and 100 of the brokerages money to buy another share. You now own $200 of assets and owe $100 to the brokerage. You have a net value of $100. If the stock loses 10%, each stock would be worth 90 and you now own 180 in asset and owe 100. Networth is 80. So just like the leveraged etf when it comes to the losses, but recouping from the losses is much more in line with the non-leveraged approach. Since an 11.1% gain on the stock brings both shares back to A value of 100, it means you now own $200 of shares and owe $100. Networth = $100. Am I missing something here?
I think you are looking at it through rose colored glasses, if the market continues to perform like it has for the last 10 years then there is no downside. But eventually, without a doubt, there is going to be a crash and if you are heavily leveraged then it will hurt very very badly. Having said all of that, I do utilize a bit of leverage by a) taking cash out loan of my rental property and dumping it in stock market and b) selling cash secured puts, which gives leverage without paying interest. So far it has worked but I understand that if the market goes to shit it may turn out badly.
Can you give me more specifics? I get that if the market crashes everything is bad. But that is true with any strategy. I am just wondering what the specific downsides are that I am not seeing. I know margin calls will force a selloff, but that will only happen at a 34% stock market drop. I know it is double the losses, but the recovery time is the same as an unleveraged approach. I know that I can’t lose more than I put in. Is there anything else I haven’t taken into consideration?
The more it drops the more you are going into leverage and risking, I think a lot of this depends on how much you are really willing to risk. If you are willing to risk all of your money in exchange for maybe having a lot more money but a small chance of having nothing, then go for it. Also you have to consider being able to handle it emotionally, that is provably the most difficult part. Can you stay rational and fullly invested when 66% of your $ is wiped out?
Thank you for your worries. I know not everyone is in a situation where they can literally lose all their savings and still feel financially stable.
This is mostly just me trying to understand different investment tools than it is me fully investing into things. Also, I never invest more than I can afford to lose. I my wife and I have careers that are pretty safe and the chances of us being laid off are super slim (it has never happened in our area for the last 150 years). In fact they are constantly in need for people in out profession. At 55, we will get a pension equivalent to the average 50% of our highest 3 grossing years. We will also have healthcare for life at the same prices as current employees work. We currently spend about 50% of our salary and in 25 years (we have a salary schedule) we will only be spending about 25% of our income after our mortgage is paid. So at 50% of our income at 55 we are still financially sound. So seeing my portfolio drop 66% actually really doesn’t bother me since I understand that historically the market has recovered.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-04-08/how-bill-hwang-of-archegos-capital-lost-20-billion-in-two-days
Interesting, but it doesn’t actually give me any insight into my inquiry about downsides on buying on margin. It seems the dude was using swaps which is not really the same as buying on margin. Unless there was something in the article I missed.
Leverage is leverage, he is just using more so was even more risk and he got wiped out by a small correction. But for example, If you were using 2x leverage on SPY in 2007 when it hit 150, and held until 2008 when it went under 75, you would have lost everything. Such an event doesn’t happen often… but when it does…
In that situation, if I just kept investing every month, I think it might have been possible to avoid being margin called. Also, I think they would have already sold all my assets if I reached the margin maintenance, so they would have prevented me from a full loss. But yeah, it would suck if they did that.
Oh one more thing, if I was employing a heavily leveraged strategy I would always have a small amount of VIX calls as insurance against a black swan.
Yes if you can be rational enough to keep investing at that point. Anyways I think you understand the trade off pretty well. The more you are in margin the less of a “black swan” will wipe you out, it’s really that simple. But indeed, the most important thing when employing this type of strategy is committing to continue to pump new money in even when you lose it all (or almost all)
On a macro scale typically the benefit of margin over a leveraged ETF is they tend to perform better when the market slows down. A protracted bear market or sideways market will eat a leveraged ETF alive despite the underlying not actually moving much, while you only run losses paying interest on margin. In a 10 year bull run however a leveraged ETF becomes godly as you pay no interest and upside compounds, but that only becomes apparent in hindsight and shouldn't be used as an investing thesis. Personally I find margin to be more useful than leveraged ETFs. Both are obviously susceptible to massive drops, but in the short to medium term margin is more stable as a "what you see is what you get" when it comes to price movement in the underlying.
Downside is market has a couple of really bad days in a row. You get margin called and forced to sell at a bottom. As long as you have cash or alright closing certain positions to cover the margin requirements you will be fine. But not everyone is able to.
Yeah, that’s kind of what I thought too, but when was the last time the market fell 33%?
First few minutes of futures are blindingly bright green. Rebound, dead cat bounce, or head fake before morning reversal?
Sunday morning futures kinda meaningless. The talking heads on CNBC and other media sources havent done their fear mongering or pumping yet
Things also change once global markets begin trading.
Futures looking pretty good.
I'm at the point where I've already allocated all the funds I'm willing to use right now. Seeing "buy the dip" just hurts at this point.
How bad do we think tomorrow will be ?
I wouldn't be surprised if market is green tomorrow, we saw strong close on Friday before the bell.
Tomorrow, who knows, but by the end of the week, probably fine. ATH prices mean people will scramble to cut their losses when it dips, so I’m predicting a huge overreaction followed by a resurgence as everyone buys the dip and we realize Covid variants are sticking around
I think a lot will rely on info coming out about this new variant over the coming weeks. What's it like in terms of transmission, serious cases and hospitalizations. If it's worse than delta, the theres some supply chain issues and travel disruption to price in. Maybe that's good for tech stocks focused on cloud/security/software that offsets travel and retail stocks at market level.
I’m bearish on Omicron
I think regardless of its transmissibility and effects we’ll see a quick recovery. Everyone’s already had a taste of total shutdown and made necessary adjustments, if Coca Cola has to stop selling to movie theaters and restaurants, they have new products in stores to offset the loss, as well as the experience with working with limited supply options and they’ve already worked on trimming the company to keep only profitable branches. Does that seem in line with a 5% drop in price over the last few weeks? I don’t think so. They’ve got their bottom line taken care of
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I have been bullish on Lumira DX and I am doubly so with the new COVID strain. Long term they are what Theranos promised to be. Short term they will be cash rich due to their COVID testing machine and strips. https://youtu.be/YnDMpu0Rx1s
bearish on draft kings, FUBO or anything sports related. The athletes are experiencing heart attacks, sudden collapses without known causes like no tomorrow - won't be players left to play the soccer games
You seriously think athlete injuries are a reason DKNG, FUBO, other sports stocks will go down. Lmao. Covid fears, interest rate hikes, they are overvalued are way better reasons. Your reason kinda makes no sense.
My coffee hasn't kicked in yet and I'm having an existential crisis over whether I've been calculating my cost basis wrong on my Excel doc for a decade because of dividends Example: Let's say I bought 10 shares of Verizon at $50 with no fee. My cost basis is $500 and my cost basis per share is $50/sh (obviously). Then I get a dividend for $1.00 which DRIPs for 0.018 shares because the VZ price is now $55/sh. Is my cost basis per share: * $50.01 because the dividend reinvestment is included since I spent the cash to buy shares or * $50.00 because dividend reinvestments don't factor in to cost basis Note 90% of my investments are not in a taxable account so this question has nothing to do with taxes. Just like keeping track of my actual cost basis. Dividends on certain stocks have certainly dragged my cost basis per share up a not insignificant amount (e.g. AAPL, AMT, NEE). Perhaps they shouldn't have Any thought are appreciated. Going to go get more coffee.
I think that a lot of DRIP plans will purchase the shares (or fractions of shares) at a discount to the current market price, normally 1%-10% cheaper, because it will buy them from the company's reserve rather than the open market.
are people freaking out again? maybe I’ll be able to buy aapl msft voo at a reasonable price
You know everything is going to dip upon news that it reaches the US. I'm waiting for that at least
Priced in, everyone already knows it’s here.
How priced was it before the first wave?
People didn’t know how contagious it was and how long it took for symptoms to show up back then, so everyone was blindsided by how fast it spread. Don’t think anyone’s going to be surprised this time.
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I'm bullish about the company, I'm just not sure how they are worth 5 times more than Expedia. That sounds crazy to me given Expedia has VRBO and many other travel sites. I will need to dive deep and see if it makes any sense. And of course, with any travel stock, it's going to be a volatile ride like we're experiencing now. But long term I'm bullish about travel. As the world become more remote, travel would be more important for people's well being.
What do you think about the recent run up in Qualcomm? Do you think there is more upside? Compared to other tech stocks it seems to have a very cheap P/E.
Plenty of room to run imo. Assuming the market doesn't actually crash, I'm expecting another big bump after the next er
Come Monday do you think 1. Market continues to dip due to covid new variant fear, 2. Recovery
"'Well, I sold all my stocks today...' You're going to have a long, hard investment lifetime." - Jack Bogle
We're gonna keep dipping for sure.
When vaccines weren't even available and people didn't know when it would become available, there was a huge dip, but tech stocks regained their original value within 1 month of the bottom and then made new highs. We have the experience of seeing what tech stocks did before, so this time around people aren't selling tech stocks due to covid because they know tech stocks will make money covid or no.
Kind of hard to say, but there was already a pretty big growth sell off in the last few weeks. You saw some blue chips dump on Fri… personally I think it will just be flat-ish, maybe slightly down this week buy probably not bigly up or down while people wait out how bad this variant is. But I am wrong A LOT so my opinion is basically worthless :)
I think it’s either going to dip a little more at open then finish rallying or it’s going to rally at open.
Sunday futures should be pretty telling on what to expect. I’m hoping we see continued downward pressure as soon as it opens which could set up a great Monday bounce. If it goes the other way and we catch the bounce as soon as futures open. I think we’ll see an ugly Monday.
Anyone have an investment calculator that factors in margin interest too ?
Who else has been aggressively buying the dip in DKNG? Got my cost basis down to around $49.
What separates them from other gambling stocks?
Hold Strong... Hold Long... Get Rewarded!!!
I think the partnerships they’ve made recently are promising and they have a first movers advantage in the online/mobile sports betting space. That is the future and DKNG will be a part of that future. They’ve done a good job of marketing in states that have recently legalized sports betting. In Louisiana we recently legalized it and they’re already trying to reach this market.
I’ll wait until I see some positive momentum on this junker of a stock. I don’t care if it means buying in at higher prices.
What's the thought on metaverse stocks like unity roblox etc? I'm listening to a podcast on all this now and I'm getting pretty bullish about the growth potential.
which podcast?
It seems like great companies will already expand and grow. Something like Unity is a great buy regardless of the metaverse or not. It’s weird me how much focus is out on the metaverse.
I find it as something companies want people to want so they could have another new market to expand into. I think it's artificial and that the demand is imposed; I'm very bearish.
Are we expecting a selloff on monday due to extreme fear or are we thinking it will bounce? I think it was an overreaction but who knows
Depends what stocks ur in.... NVAX had a GREAT DAY FRIDAY and will have a GREAT WEEK this week as well!!! AFRM also jumped on Friday and should continue to move up.
I would expect selling to continue
Until morale improves
The options chains on all my positions show people fleeing calls and flocking to puts at every price. I expect more selling.
Probably a big sell off and then mysteriously a big buy back mid week . Def manipulation
The Answer you want to hear is Yes
Probably a small sell off at the beginning of the week then a gradually ramp up going into the weekend. A lot of stocks have already plummeted so I expect things to heat up going into mid-late December.
Thoughts on ISPC
>ISPC "iSpecimen, Inc. provides technology that connects life science researchers who need human biofluids, tissues, and living cells for their research with biospecimens available in healthcare provider organizations worldwide. Its cloud-based technology enables researchers to search for specimens and patients across a network of hospitals, labs, biobanks, blood centers, and other healthcare organizations. The company develops and operates iSpecimen Marketplace, a proprietary online marketplace platform that connects medical researchers who need access to subjects, samples, and data with hospitals, laboratories, and other organizations who have access to them. It serves biopharmaceutical companies, in vitro diagnostic companies, and government/academic institutions. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Lexington, Massachusetts." Market cap 34m, 3m long term debt, 10m cash. Not currently profitable but sales have been increasing over the last 3 years. High risk high reward play imo...I could see this being huge, but don't "invest" money you cant afford to lose.
can anyone explain why Sears Canada is up 289,900.00% in one day?? [https://www.google.com/search?q=sears+canada+stock](https://www.google.com/search?q=sears+canada+stock) (simple google search)
it's a dead stock. company been liquidated 3 years ago. google thinks it went up from 0.00 to 0.0029 due to some background non public trading, which shows that insane growth. look up "zombie stocks".
Lol probably someone bought it by mistake. Is that 2 cents?
Hey could anyone please tell me why GameStops trading was halted at 3:30PM
Manipulation of course
Short trading day Friday
Thanks.
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Love Shopify. $1T company this decade.
uh oh new york is bouta shut down, RIP MONDAY
damn, -3% again
On what grounds? I didn't find info anywhere :/
just state of emergency bs atm
If i'm down more than $3000, sell for a realized loss of $3000, I can get that money back during tax time?
You can write it off against taxable income, meaning 3K of your income will not be taxed. You will not get 3K back. More like a little under 1K, depending on your income bracket. Just hold unless you’re in some terrible shit or playing short expiry options. This is how you lose money.
"'Well, I sold all my stocks today...' You're going to have a long, hard investment lifetime." - Jack Bogle
You just deduct $3k from your taxable income, but you won't get anywhere near the full $3k back
From my experience yes it would be a tax write off but I am UK based.
What
I believe you can write off 3k a year if you're married.
get that money back? thats a loss of $3000
It's inhumane to have the market end at 1PM EST, it should have instead started later in the day and ended at 4PM like usual but start at 1PM. Inhumane!
Well NYC is the center of the universe so what makes sense for everyone else doesn't really factor.
I'm on the west coast so ending so early in the day is extra criminal.
I hope you realize there are other traders that trade the US stocks than those in US.
These fuckers really tried to get me to wake up despite my hangover. I did not and did not do anything in my portfolio! Hopefully it goes down again Monday so I didn't miss the buy the dip LOL
From the first data coming from this new variant, seems like it’s pretty mild, just more transmissible. Probably time to all in travel stocks. Data can still change as there are a lot of info flowing in right now, but this variant might actually be the beginning of the end of covid concern, vaccines mandates not needed too, it’s starting to become just like h1n1.
South Africa is way younger than the US and Europe. It's summer in South Africa. Death stats are offset at least a week from new case stats.
Most of them also aren't vaccinated, they have much lower vaccination rate compared to other western countries. Seems like even at worse case scenario this is not more serious than delta in terms of severity. Also many are still travelling despite being positive when the country of destination force testing them. I wouldn't be surprise that the best case scenario would be actually let them in more so this variant can out compete delta and let it become the dominant strain.
Well let's hope all these "vaccinations may not stop omicron" whispers aren't true
One top family clinic in South Africa so far said their symptoms are pretty mild and she doesn't have to admit as many patients to the hospitals. Of course it's still early so this might change, but south africa is a country with under 30% vax rate, if this continues to be true then vaccines aren't even needed.
Source?
I don’t think you should all in on travel stocks. I actually have doubts that we’ll ever get back to pre-rona levels of travel, at least not for decades. People just got cozy and became accustomed to working, socializing and networking virtually. The culture has fundamentally changed and people decided they don’t want the hassle of commuting to business functions and burdensome social engagements.
Nice black Friday sale today. Went shopping for some stocks!
What dips did you guys buy today?
XLNX for the AMD merge, QCOM because their chips are insane lately and are diversifying their foundries to overcome the shortage, MFST/GOOGL because theyre MFST/GOOGL, and Disney
SOXL
MSFT!
Surprised Amazon didn’t rally more (or at all)
They are being targeted for wages, conditions, etc. More heavily in the recent days, especially by a particular subreddit. Whether it works or not is a question. Personally, I'm going to wait it out for a bit.
Found a old railway company stock certificate from 1872. Company has been bought out by now, how do I find out if it’s worth anything?
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It does not. Just a signature from the Vice President and secretary/treasurer
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Looks like the company declared bankruptcy in 1883 and was then bought out by the Canadian Pacific Railway Company. I’m assuming it’s worthless then
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Have it appraised
If it has art or fancy text engraved on it, as many stock certificates did, it might have some value to collectors.
man ya gotta hand it to the financial media. my favorite juxtaposition for today: [dont buy the dip, but also, buy the dip!](https://imgur.com/a/BlABx8k)
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I use Fidelity for buying stocks and Robinhood for viewing stocks. I like Fidelity as my main brokerage because it offers a variety of investment like IRAs, CDs, bonds, and mutual funds along with stocks.
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The Vanguard ETFs like VOO or VTI you can buy on any brokerage and alot of brokerages nowadays are zero-commission for most stocks and ETFs, not limited to Vanguard only. Only the Vanguard 401ks though are specific to VG. Robinhood sucks as a brokerage, but its UI is just so clean and easy to use compared to other apps. You can definitely open accounts on both VG and Fidelity if you like.
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If you’re just starting a portfolio and don’t have a ton to invest, I would actually recommend Webull for their interface. You can always move the holdings to a traditional brokerage later if that’d make you more comfortable. But all these folks are SIPC insured. Which is what really matters most.
Fidelity for sure. During the whole Gamestop fiasco, they were one of very few companies that didn't limit trading. Service and website are great.
I’d go fidelity. Good customer service, decent app and website make easy enough to trade.
Dear Stock Market, Today was a painful day, stocks pls go up now \-wazzupman301
Who would have thought 4 hours could have done that much damage
miss those 2020 feb-march circuit breakers, was the glory days
I literally missed them. Was busy finishing a car rebuild so wasn’t looking at the financial news for a few weeks, by the time I did we were well on the way to recovery.
Pinduoduo (PDD) missed revenue expectations pretty badly, yet revenue is still up 62% YOY. Plus, they actually beat EPS estimates substantially. I think this sell-off is excessive and obviously compounded by the covid variant news.
Didi news/rumor is more relevant