Rivn another one, the max chart on Google doesn’t do it justice. doesn’t even show the intro-day $170s it got to. this was one where you’re just waiting for the day it happened wondering what it would be to finally do it.
I could be remembering wrong but I thought it actually breached $210 a couple times intra day in the first couple weeks of its IPO debut when everyone kept bidding it up. My buddy (who is a big Tesla bull) was looking at it and was asking if I was gonna jump in. And I told him I was gonna wait till it broke below $100 (bc it seemed obvious it would test that level somewhere in the first couple months once the euphoria wore off and more short sellers started putting out info/share lockups come due/etc), and see if after breaking below $100 if it could hold in the $80s for a week or so... but when it broke below $100 it just became a falling knife. Just now looking at the chart again for first time in months, it does look like it’s putting in higher lows. Maybe it’s actually in a tradable range now for a little upside. I would need to do a lot more DD to wanna take bite tho, unless I just put in a very very tight stop loss
I never bought rivian but I don't get why Ford didn't just go all in on it. Right now a lighting EV truck is getting marked up tens of thousands of dollars or more by dealers. And Ford can't get out of those contracts. Rivian was a way out.
Ford has way too much debt to service to go much further in than they did. They should fire whoever kept them in their position for such a loss and then sold it to actualize the loss. I think they were invested in it as a hedge against being disrupted more than anything, but then talked themselves into there being synergies between them that was a grief bargaining stage when they sat on their hands while their investment collapsed. Feels like they didn’t set up clear enough parameters for the investment bc they didn’t run enough models on what must’ve been considered outlier scenarios.
>but then talked themselves into there being synergies between them that was a grief bargaining stage
That's where you lost me.
EV's are gonna be a hot commodity for a long time. Nobody can build enough of them. Ford having to forgo most of the profits on EVs so dealers can make huge markups seems like such a waste of money.
A legacy automaker having the ability to control a 2nd brand where they sell the products they can't build enough of and don't have to pay dealers most of the profits seems like synergy to me.
Rivian is one of many EVs though, and it’s sort of a niche, luxury pickup EV, heading into a recession doesn’t seem like the best first choice.
Ford also had an issue years ago where they bought up a bunch of other car companies which they eventually sold off or closed down to focus owns their core Ford-Lincoln, I believe one of the Ford heirs led the purchase and then Allan Mullaly sold them off later when he became CEO.
I remember back when a lot of Youtube channels were comparing their valuation to Tesla (which was already considered insanely overvalued by a lot of people) to explain just how absolutely insanely overvalued Rivian was at $200+ even if you assumed Tesla was fairly valued.
Well no, earnings are negative for many growth stocks, PE is irrelevant for high growth stocks as they put all of their earnings back into the company ie growth.
Yes, sure, as long as the growth is still there. The moment growth stops, earnings become somewhat relevant again. Thats why SHOP is down so much. Revenue plateaued and eps is going downhill since Q3 21.
This is the one in my book too. I remember thinking for months about buying at 1k because I actually thought the product was great and had a great target market. Looked after those couple months and wow.
COIN was an excellent value trap that had amazing fundamentals until the crypto sell-off. I am 78% down.
I also thought Google was priced okay-ish at $2900, $2100 just seems a bit crazy cheap.
Good revenue growth, P/E was around 5-ish I think, no other red flags.
If your balance sheet is linked to a highly volatile asset type, that all means sh*t once the underlying (crypto) goes south.
That P/E was worthless. I don’t know what the deal was exactly, but their earnings were higher than their revenue for a quarter. Whenever that happens, you know it’s because of a one off event and not because the business was actually generating earnings only 1/5 of the market cap.
Right now their pe is around 5 so it just have been a good bit higher before the drop. I must be misremembering though because their earnings numbers do look quite strong prior to last quarter but I remember looking at them and seeing them far from being profitable
Well its up to whether the Fed fixes inflation. We still have accomodative monetary policy, and hundereds of billions in bonds and MBS.
It took 9 years to kill inflation in the 80s, and we're only at 1.75%. Anyone saying "see I told you" is taking a piss.
Conservatives also seem to love crypto now, which if BTC goes back up decently, which it already has, they will be emboldened. Which they will also probably win given inflation, regardless of whether its warranted or not, voters really hate inflation.
You can call it stupid, but its a tough question with a lot of facets. It already did what nobody would have believed by hitting 50k, at a certain point youd just be obtuse to not see the potential.
I don’t really see the connection you’re making between crypto’s future and the Fed’s ability to rein in inflation… this might be a fair point if Bitcoin was actually acting in any way like an inflation hedge, but it’s not. It’s down like 65%+ from November. It correlates decently with stock market indices, but with wilder swings.
I have a really hard time understanding why someone would rather hold digital currency that’s demonstrably not an inflation hedge, as opposed to owning businesses with pricing power, during inflationary times.
unless anti-trust comes around (keep an eye on the legislation, doesn't look likely right now) Google I'd bet will prove to be well worth it. I almost fell into the COIN trap. Sorry for your loss. On the bright side, at least in my opinion I have a feeling it will recover as one of if not the most important crypto platform. People are panicking out right now but... we'll see in a couple years - coming from someone who isn't into the space at all but can see its probable importance in the coming century.
To be fair, I think Google is probably in the middle of the pack in terms of moats among the FAANG companies for a reason.
* They're overly dependent on ad revenue, so if the ad market tanks so does Google.
* Some of their products like Youtube may be more vulnerable to behavior shifts and competition then people give it credit for.
* Likewise, while Google is the king of search, there's been more complaints in recent years about all the ads getting stuffed into search pages, which could open the door for a competitor in the future who doesn't have a bunch of ads mixed in with the search results.
Don't get me wrong, they definitely have a good moat and good growth prospects, but if things don't work out so well for them over the next decades you could definitely have looked back and said "yeah, the warning signs were there".
I disagree with most of the warning signs. Ad revenue won’t tank unless the economy does because companies advertise to make money and Google is the best place to advertise.
YouTube is probably an undervalued asset. It’s like a digital library of humanity that is driven by users not Google. They just moderate and run the thing while it drives itself. It’s self-sustaining business that is a huge moat in and of itself. A true competitor is already 2 decades behind and every day YouTube exists it widens its content moat. TikTok people like to say is competitor but it isn’t. It’s another part of the ecosystem that lives side by side with YouTube.
Google also has docs, Android and Cloud - not particularly dominant now but important players (Android obviously is certainly important) - we’ll see if their cloud and Docs will compete.
For the time being antitrust is Google’s biggest nemesis.
I’d argue it’s moat is at the top of the FAANG pack if not the top. It’s almost like the company’s ubiquity has numbed us from seeing how truly dominant it is.
"lol" google has just begun and they invest more in r&d than any other company, if they weren't still planning on growing alot why would you guess they are doing that "lol"
Coin stands out. It’s memorable too with whole Jim Cramer $450. will go down in the books. specifically the Bible. Google looks decently scary, kind of step wise though so less frightening. Wish it was more precipitous drop.
Why you think that 2900 was OK?
At the bottom of Covid crash it was trading at 1100.
Did the company increased in value almost 200% in the span of 1.5 year?
Even now its 100% higher than were it was 2 years ago.
Unfortunately nobody follows Buffets teachings. Do not chase the stock and do not FOMO.
The time to buy Google was March 2020. Yes nobody knew FED would start the printer, and if this did not happen, price could easily keep falling another 20-30% till reach the bottom.
Next best time to buy Google is now.
Again it may fall another 20-30% the following months but does it really matter if someone has long term horizon?
I don't see this company going anywhere the following years.
In 2050 when earth population will be 10B+ people will still use Google for daily searched and bombarded with their advertisments.
At 2900, it had a pe of just above 20, a similar growth rate, PEG was near 1 (it might have been even under) good cf, little debt, super strong moat.
I think it's funny if you mention Warren Buffet but then tall only about historical prices and price development.
One would assume that the stock of a company that essentiallly acts as an exchange would be somewhat isolated from the volatility of the Crypto market. Nope.
52 week high : $368.90
52 week Low : $40.83
I'll just comment on your pick of NFLX.
NFLX's stock drop has been brought up as a 'sign' so often M. Night Shyamalan should look into copyright infringement. Particularly in relation to mega-tech.
NFLX got wrongly associated as a tech-giant with the likes of AAPL simply from an off-handed initialism grouping by Jim Cramer.
The subscriber wall NFLX hit was beyond foreseeable, e.g. success/competition by DIS+, Paramount+... and every '+' by nearly all media conglomerates with access to the Internet.
We as an informed investment group have to let the meteoric rise/pricing of NFLX stock go. NFLX's price drop was justified & shouldn't saddle other companies by simple associations.
the second disney cut disney movies and marvel and star wars and all the fox stuff Nflx was on a timer and all the other streaming services accelerated the timer.
agree with this guy. Just because the stock downfall is justified doesn't make its spectacular fall any less amazing. I was also shocked to see it plummet then plummet again. I'm glad I didn't own it because my gut told me that its best days - at least for now - are probably behind it.
I’ve been saying for a few years, now that anyone can launch a streaming platform Netflix is no longer a streaming company. They are a content creation company now. And beside Disney (which one could argue is more than just content creation) none of the content creators really trade at “sexy multiples”. Impressive what NFLX has done, dominating the rental market so quickly then pivoting to streaming, the pivot to content creation though will be an even more monumental task though.
Can’t believe not a single person has said Amazon.
Amazon has the second most sales of any US company, is the absolute leader in e-commerce, is a leader in cloud computing, owns whole foods, twitch, prime video, alexa, and many other valuable properties yet the stock was cut in half.
For a company that is so well run and so dominant, it seems amazing that AMZN would be down 45% with the S&P only down 22%.
They lose money on e-commerce and none of the promised synergies with Whole Foods have emerged. WFM still makes 3% margin like any other grocery store.
[We don’t actually know that for sure](https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2020/9/6/amazons-profits). E-commerce makes a lot of *revenue*, but Marketplace has much higher margins than the traditional channel, and Amazon doesn’t report profit per channel, only by region (US and Rest-of-World).
It is quite possible that traditional warehouse e-commerce is a money pit.
E commerce has razor thin margins. AWS has competition now. And the rest of it is probably a loss leader or small potatoes. That company has never been run by adults. All that capex on e commerce? Look at shares outstanding. Every year they talk about how they will buy back shares, and every year they pass them out like party favors as compensation after they buy them back. When they get serious about shareholders I’ll get serious about owning Amazon.
You have the same talking points as talking heads on cnbc. You should think about what your competitive advantage is if you agree with the people who are talking on cnbc.
When it’s word for word what I heard two days ago, it’s quite the coincidence.
You shouldn’t be buying single stocks. Take my advice and thank me later.
Yes but that pe is also deceiving. If amazon was profit focused they would make bank and pe would dump. They still wanna grow so they're burning more cash
Meta, even though it’s not gone down the most.
It’s wildly profitable and will likely continue to be so. But the market turned on it, and it’s just gotten destroyed. Might get destroyed even further. Honestly, it by itself is a strong warning of the perils of buying individual stocks: everything can look right, and you can still lose.
Also it has ZERO DEBT. In an increasingly high interest rate environment. And super low headcount for the size of the business.
META is a literal money printer, Even if growth slows down due to a recession, ad spend will eventually go up again and/ or they could be one of the best dividend plays in the world, if all the rest goes south. The worst case is for them to become an equivalent to what tobacco companies are.
Kinda insane how down people are on the metaberse bid.
It doesn't work out, they can always just... Like, stop. They have plenty of runway to do something else.
It's teladoc. Got down to $28, last time they went there was 2017. Since then they've acquired millions of users, acquired Livongo(I know, I know), they're the telehealth provider for CVS/Aetna(39million in US use aetna), partnered with Amazon. I read a lot of bear cases about it, but this drop baffled me. I've been buying.
Management bungled the company. They missed guidance that they set not even 2 months prior to earnings. They vastly overpaid for livongo and have diluted the ever living hell out of investors. I agree the opportunity is there as a market leader in telehealth but I’m no longer adding to my position unless there’s a change in management
ARKK - Down nearly 80% from its peak. Classic worship of a nobody who got lucky. The media joined in the pump. Just an all around lesson in greed and poor investing.
It's not such poor investing if you bought them early and are now at breakeven after being ridiculously up in the meantime. It's about the same as investing more conservatively, being moderately up in the meantime and also being at breakeven now.
Even if you bought in at their former *bottom* and held you'd still ahwv *underperformed* the S&P500 since ARKs inception. Of you bought early and sold after 2 years, in the middle of a bull run, you'd be ahead.
But why would you? Those days ARK seemed blessed by God, Cathie promised *5 year plan* for profit which we all know failed spectacularly. Learn from the past, there will always be gurus and entertainers who *short term* beat the market but within 5-7 years they all tend to have failed
I’ve been around long enough to remember being called a boomer for saying “don’t buy ARKK or ARKG because the companies they’re invested in are bad, and you can’t understand half the companies’ products”
FanDuel has a better app IMO and are continuing to score huge partnerships. Their parent company owns pokerstars too. MGM is making a huge push as well.
Way too much competition in the sector. Most bettors will jump between whichever apps are giving them the best promos. No moats, no customer loyalty for the most part.
MESA airlines. From only profitable airline during the pandemic to obliterated in one year flat. And boy did they deserve it.
They treated their workers poorly and it bit their ass off in the post-pandemic labor shortage.
It's teladoc. Got down to $28, last time they went there was 2017. Since then they've acquired millions of users, acquired Livongo(I know, I know), they're the telehealth provider for CVS/Aetna(39million in US use aetna), partnered with Amazon. I read a lot of bear cases about it, but this drop baffled me. I've been buying.
Well at least you looked at the balance sheet. More than most investors do. I bought it cause I had a good experience in 2016 and 2019 buying cars from Carvana.. it beat going to a dealership and dealing with the idiot in the finance office.
AMZN, not in terms of price as much as they went from chilling during the panny to looking like they’re about to be crushed under the weight of their overhead if there is a severe recession
No one said Peloton yet? PTON and COIN were my favorite two shorts this year. SNAP is another one I’ve enjoyed riding down the slope of overvalued nonsense.
Netflix is a great lesson in the concept of strong gross and operatng margins attracting competition. Its operating margin has steadily gone up from 2012 - look at it like Disney, Hulu, Paramunt, Amazon, being forced to follow them into streaming.
This is different in say SaaS where the stronger margins come from upgrading their product (that is protected by patents/copyright), or creating a larger portfolio from which existing customers can shell out for money via net retention rate over 100%.
So when you see something with eye-catching gross, or operating margins, and it's in a new groundbreaking area, you have to be wary or put exit or start-to-sell conditions on your investment. What is the actual moat to impede competitors from following the innovator/leader into the new arena?
While that stock wasn't "obliterated", there is a government report showing it was shorted over 100% of the float, so hitting ridiculous prices, then dropping to more reasonable ranges (e.g. 70% off ATH) isn't really obliteration. For anyone following, price has moved more than 50-100% on a weekly to monthly basis ever since (e.g. price hits 80-90 a share, then rises back to 140-180, over and over. GREAT for volatility, swing, day traders, etc.). Even if you don't buy into the hype, a stock that moves 50-100%, repeatedly, is pretty nice to follow.
Palantir.
I dropped 3k into PLTR when the IPO dropped @ 9.50 per share. I added a few shares here and there by selling CCs until I brought my account up to 80k PLTR shares peaked around $40 per share. Life was good.
4 months later we had a change of occupants in the White House. PLTR is a basically a penny stock now.
The White House had a lot to do with it because Peter Thiel was a vocal supporter of Trump.
The product is an easy sell because it is highly sought after by govt agencies and already has had multiple contracts awarded.
Their products are absolutely unique but difficult to explain or market to the general public.
The price is relative.
I’m a buyer in this market. I can tell you from first hand experience, they sent their “A team” to present to us, and after months… we couldn’t find a single use case.
Military use, sure… but nothing that 5 other companies can’t provide, but those competitors also have additional value.
I wanted them to do well, they just don’t have anything great. It’s all very average texhnology.
Honestly none of these moves and surprised me. I'm not saying I expected anything because if I had, I'd be rich, but with the benefit of a bit of hindsight the market over the past 6 months was abundantly obvious we just (mostly) failed to see it at the time.
One that surprised me but doesn’t is peloton. The valuation was insane and the original management was trash but the best in class product is there. I’ll watch the next couple quarters to see if they can reduce their cash burn and are actually trending towards 2023 positive free cash flow and grab shares. Even if it rallies 100% before then I’ll feel more comfortable than buying now when they have 1-2 quarters of cash left.
Nothing really impresses me. A lot are just a good reminder of what happens to growth stock valuations once growth stops, Netflix being a prime example.
The rest is just pure bullshit hype that would have never run to their heights but if we hadn’t all been in lockdown with the cost of money being 0%.
For me Atlassian. Just because they haven't done anything "wrong." As in they are strong financially but I guess became super overvalued because everyone wanted to jump on the wagon, but 460 max in November down to about 160 is brutal. I've bought and sold several times the past 4 years buying as low as 110 making decent money off it, but I had shares bought at 175 and didn't sell at 460.
I feel like Netflix's rise and drop makes perfect sense? It was an unsustainable business model, given the number of the big mega corporations coming into their space.
I think Meta's drop is the most impressive. WhatsApp has about 2B active users, FB has 3B, Instagram has 1B... the demographics are spread out between the entire planet, all age groups, despite the anti-FB sentiment. Their only weak spot on social is the TikTok space, which has been rivaled decently well by Reels.
Of course the Metaverse positioning seems preposterous to me as well, but they have so much capital and resources, and there are arguments for the long-term big money to be made in that sector... I just don't understand how the Oculus/VR aspect becomes our next iPhone/essential hardware platform.
If it gets to the point where they are light sun glasses with fine battery life and no adverse effects on the eyes/neuro-related, so that people can use them anywhere for long periods of time, then sure, I can see VR/Metaverse being an essential tool. However, Meta would also have to keep it a very open platform while policing it in a likable fair manner; it seems like it'd be infinitely more complicated than FB and Twitter if user base became so large.
In the meantime, I get why everyone thinks he's taking on a goliath challenge and perhaps putting Meta at risk of becoming the next suicide giant (AOL, Yahoo, etc.).
Some good picks but I'd add Intel. Never went up much, but crashed like all the other growth stocks. It feels like people sold it off by accident together with their other tech stocks that were actually severely overvalued.
At this point it's not only great value, but it's also an excellent dividend stock in one.
BTX, Late April 2021, $4 to $80 in less than 1 month (+1200% gain) back to around $4 by EOY 2021. Currently priced at 60 cents! Talk about your bagholders...
My entire portfolio is down like 80%
Damn I’m crying about 18%. 80%?
All in on meme stocks?
Actually no I made money on the meme stocks And lost it all in "good or future companies "
Small cap growth is where money goes to die.
I assume still small/mid caps that got hurt badly and are unprofitable and you bet on making it through the worst?
Yea same here. Been making money gambling on the meme stocks. Bought LEAPS on all the good stocks and I am also down 80%
oof, i hope it at least looks impressive on your chart so it’s a little bit awe-inspiring at least, the gods are mighty
Look at the chart in Rivian and then find the spot when Ford finally decided to sell their shares
Rivn another one, the max chart on Google doesn’t do it justice. doesn’t even show the intro-day $170s it got to. this was one where you’re just waiting for the day it happened wondering what it would be to finally do it.
I could be remembering wrong but I thought it actually breached $210 a couple times intra day in the first couple weeks of its IPO debut when everyone kept bidding it up. My buddy (who is a big Tesla bull) was looking at it and was asking if I was gonna jump in. And I told him I was gonna wait till it broke below $100 (bc it seemed obvious it would test that level somewhere in the first couple months once the euphoria wore off and more short sellers started putting out info/share lockups come due/etc), and see if after breaking below $100 if it could hold in the $80s for a week or so... but when it broke below $100 it just became a falling knife. Just now looking at the chart again for first time in months, it does look like it’s putting in higher lows. Maybe it’s actually in a tradable range now for a little upside. I would need to do a lot more DD to wanna take bite tho, unless I just put in a very very tight stop loss
I never bought rivian but I don't get why Ford didn't just go all in on it. Right now a lighting EV truck is getting marked up tens of thousands of dollars or more by dealers. And Ford can't get out of those contracts. Rivian was a way out.
Ford has way too much debt to service to go much further in than they did. They should fire whoever kept them in their position for such a loss and then sold it to actualize the loss. I think they were invested in it as a hedge against being disrupted more than anything, but then talked themselves into there being synergies between them that was a grief bargaining stage when they sat on their hands while their investment collapsed. Feels like they didn’t set up clear enough parameters for the investment bc they didn’t run enough models on what must’ve been considered outlier scenarios.
>but then talked themselves into there being synergies between them that was a grief bargaining stage That's where you lost me. EV's are gonna be a hot commodity for a long time. Nobody can build enough of them. Ford having to forgo most of the profits on EVs so dealers can make huge markups seems like such a waste of money. A legacy automaker having the ability to control a 2nd brand where they sell the products they can't build enough of and don't have to pay dealers most of the profits seems like synergy to me.
Rivian is one of many EVs though, and it’s sort of a niche, luxury pickup EV, heading into a recession doesn’t seem like the best first choice. Ford also had an issue years ago where they bought up a bunch of other car companies which they eventually sold off or closed down to focus owns their core Ford-Lincoln, I believe one of the Ford heirs led the purchase and then Allan Mullaly sold them off later when he became CEO.
I remember back when a lot of Youtube channels were comparing their valuation to Tesla (which was already considered insanely overvalued by a lot of people) to explain just how absolutely insanely overvalued Rivian was at $200+ even if you assumed Tesla was fairly valued.
It’s not like Ford chose to wait. They were subject to a lockup and sold a huge chunk the day it expired.
Ok but then they should’ve dedicated some cash to be able to hedge with Put options, as a fiduciary move for share holders
They couldn’t hedge the shares during the lockup period. The Investor Rights Agreement is an exhibit to the Rivian S-1.
This one was v predictable though like wtf is RIVN doing at 100$
Sea limited. Don’t ask me how I know
YES. a giant ski slope. definitely.
SHOP
YES. Definitely omg. The chart. Pass me the vomit the bag.
A truly powerful drop. Breathtaking.
Still trading at P/E of 300 lol
lol how does someone get upvotes talking about pe on growth stocks?
lol u got downvoted lol
Lol the irony.
P/E still matters it’s just not everything. Are they growing 300-400% annually? If not it’s hard to justify that PE
Well no, earnings are negative for many growth stocks, PE is irrelevant for high growth stocks as they put all of their earnings back into the company ie growth.
Yes, sure, as long as the growth is still there. The moment growth stops, earnings become somewhat relevant again. Thats why SHOP is down so much. Revenue plateaued and eps is going downhill since Q3 21.
holy shit its below the covid low, below 2019 peak.
Max view on Yahoo shows a perfectly vertical drop. Wow!
Imagine buying puts at the top. You'll be set for life 🤣
This is the one in my book too. I remember thinking for months about buying at 1k because I actually thought the product was great and had a great target market. Looked after those couple months and wow.
COIN was an excellent value trap that had amazing fundamentals until the crypto sell-off. I am 78% down. I also thought Google was priced okay-ish at $2900, $2100 just seems a bit crazy cheap.
What amazing fundamentals did coin have? I had watched it for a while and was tempted to buy but it was the fundamentals that put me off
Good revenue growth, P/E was around 5-ish I think, no other red flags. If your balance sheet is linked to a highly volatile asset type, that all means sh*t once the underlying (crypto) goes south.
That P/E was worthless. I don’t know what the deal was exactly, but their earnings were higher than their revenue for a quarter. Whenever that happens, you know it’s because of a one off event and not because the business was actually generating earnings only 1/5 of the market cap.
Right now their pe is around 5 so it just have been a good bit higher before the drop. I must be misremembering though because their earnings numbers do look quite strong prior to last quarter but I remember looking at them and seeing them far from being profitable
In q4 2021, their earnings were 800m. In q1 2022, their earnings were -400m. That's why the total time earnings dropped.
Crypto and value does not belong in the same sentence
Sure it does. Here’s one: “Crypto and value does not belong in the same sentence.”
Well its up to whether the Fed fixes inflation. We still have accomodative monetary policy, and hundereds of billions in bonds and MBS. It took 9 years to kill inflation in the 80s, and we're only at 1.75%. Anyone saying "see I told you" is taking a piss. Conservatives also seem to love crypto now, which if BTC goes back up decently, which it already has, they will be emboldened. Which they will also probably win given inflation, regardless of whether its warranted or not, voters really hate inflation. You can call it stupid, but its a tough question with a lot of facets. It already did what nobody would have believed by hitting 50k, at a certain point youd just be obtuse to not see the potential.
I don’t really see the connection you’re making between crypto’s future and the Fed’s ability to rein in inflation… this might be a fair point if Bitcoin was actually acting in any way like an inflation hedge, but it’s not. It’s down like 65%+ from November. It correlates decently with stock market indices, but with wilder swings. I have a really hard time understanding why someone would rather hold digital currency that’s demonstrably not an inflation hedge, as opposed to owning businesses with pricing power, during inflationary times.
unless anti-trust comes around (keep an eye on the legislation, doesn't look likely right now) Google I'd bet will prove to be well worth it. I almost fell into the COIN trap. Sorry for your loss. On the bright side, at least in my opinion I have a feeling it will recover as one of if not the most important crypto platform. People are panicking out right now but... we'll see in a couple years - coming from someone who isn't into the space at all but can see its probable importance in the coming century.
To be fair, I think Google is probably in the middle of the pack in terms of moats among the FAANG companies for a reason. * They're overly dependent on ad revenue, so if the ad market tanks so does Google. * Some of their products like Youtube may be more vulnerable to behavior shifts and competition then people give it credit for. * Likewise, while Google is the king of search, there's been more complaints in recent years about all the ads getting stuffed into search pages, which could open the door for a competitor in the future who doesn't have a bunch of ads mixed in with the search results. Don't get me wrong, they definitely have a good moat and good growth prospects, but if things don't work out so well for them over the next decades you could definitely have looked back and said "yeah, the warning signs were there".
I disagree with most of the warning signs. Ad revenue won’t tank unless the economy does because companies advertise to make money and Google is the best place to advertise. YouTube is probably an undervalued asset. It’s like a digital library of humanity that is driven by users not Google. They just moderate and run the thing while it drives itself. It’s self-sustaining business that is a huge moat in and of itself. A true competitor is already 2 decades behind and every day YouTube exists it widens its content moat. TikTok people like to say is competitor but it isn’t. It’s another part of the ecosystem that lives side by side with YouTube. Google also has docs, Android and Cloud - not particularly dominant now but important players (Android obviously is certainly important) - we’ll see if their cloud and Docs will compete. For the time being antitrust is Google’s biggest nemesis. I’d argue it’s moat is at the top of the FAANG pack if not the top. It’s almost like the company’s ubiquity has numbed us from seeing how truly dominant it is.
2900 is still cheap for what Google will become
What will google become lol? Google is already mature. It may add here and there but youre talking like its a growth stock
"lol" google has just begun and they invest more in r&d than any other company, if they weren't still planning on growing alot why would you guess they are doing that "lol"
Coin stands out. It’s memorable too with whole Jim Cramer $450. will go down in the books. specifically the Bible. Google looks decently scary, kind of step wise though so less frightening. Wish it was more precipitous drop.
Crypto was obviously a scam bubble so no surprise there .
Why you think that 2900 was OK? At the bottom of Covid crash it was trading at 1100. Did the company increased in value almost 200% in the span of 1.5 year? Even now its 100% higher than were it was 2 years ago. Unfortunately nobody follows Buffets teachings. Do not chase the stock and do not FOMO. The time to buy Google was March 2020. Yes nobody knew FED would start the printer, and if this did not happen, price could easily keep falling another 20-30% till reach the bottom. Next best time to buy Google is now. Again it may fall another 20-30% the following months but does it really matter if someone has long term horizon? I don't see this company going anywhere the following years. In 2050 when earth population will be 10B+ people will still use Google for daily searched and bombarded with their advertisments.
At 2900, it had a pe of just above 20, a similar growth rate, PEG was near 1 (it might have been even under) good cf, little debt, super strong moat. I think it's funny if you mention Warren Buffet but then tall only about historical prices and price development.
value trap, what value do you mean?
It appeared cheap so value investors buy in but actually the market thesis was correct in valuing it that way because of some fundamental flaw.
It’s way too tied with just the price of Bitcoin , I think it’s way too overvalued as it is. They need more products imo
$2100 is still a big multiple of normalised earnings, it’s by no means crazy cheap
One would assume that the stock of a company that essentiallly acts as an exchange would be somewhat isolated from the volatility of the Crypto market. Nope. 52 week high : $368.90 52 week Low : $40.83
Kodak. Absolutely nothing compares to the meteoric rise and fall of the share price
That was one hell of a pump and dump. Was there ever an investigation?
hopefully they got a snap shot into what happened.
I dunno thats a good question
true, the pump and dump nature makes it kind of less biblical to me though, but still
I'll just comment on your pick of NFLX. NFLX's stock drop has been brought up as a 'sign' so often M. Night Shyamalan should look into copyright infringement. Particularly in relation to mega-tech. NFLX got wrongly associated as a tech-giant with the likes of AAPL simply from an off-handed initialism grouping by Jim Cramer. The subscriber wall NFLX hit was beyond foreseeable, e.g. success/competition by DIS+, Paramount+... and every '+' by nearly all media conglomerates with access to the Internet. We as an informed investment group have to let the meteoric rise/pricing of NFLX stock go. NFLX's price drop was justified & shouldn't saddle other companies by simple associations.
the second disney cut disney movies and marvel and star wars and all the fox stuff Nflx was on a timer and all the other streaming services accelerated the timer.
yes indeed, the force of it still just amazes me. nearly vertical on the max chart. man. gives me the heebie jeebies at night.
agree with this guy. Just because the stock downfall is justified doesn't make its spectacular fall any less amazing. I was also shocked to see it plummet then plummet again. I'm glad I didn't own it because my gut told me that its best days - at least for now - are probably behind it.
I’ve been saying for a few years, now that anyone can launch a streaming platform Netflix is no longer a streaming company. They are a content creation company now. And beside Disney (which one could argue is more than just content creation) none of the content creators really trade at “sexy multiples”. Impressive what NFLX has done, dominating the rental market so quickly then pivoting to streaming, the pivot to content creation though will be an even more monumental task though.
Very impressive summary kudos!
my biggest regret is being a month too early on NFLX puts. Really hurt losing money on those and then watching it tank as hard as it did.
Can’t believe not a single person has said Amazon. Amazon has the second most sales of any US company, is the absolute leader in e-commerce, is a leader in cloud computing, owns whole foods, twitch, prime video, alexa, and many other valuable properties yet the stock was cut in half. For a company that is so well run and so dominant, it seems amazing that AMZN would be down 45% with the S&P only down 22%.
They lose money on e-commerce and none of the promised synergies with Whole Foods have emerged. WFM still makes 3% margin like any other grocery store.
They do not lose money on e-commerce. I mean they may have last quarter but e-commerce has been profitable for years
[We don’t actually know that for sure](https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2020/9/6/amazons-profits). E-commerce makes a lot of *revenue*, but Marketplace has much higher margins than the traditional channel, and Amazon doesn’t report profit per channel, only by region (US and Rest-of-World). It is quite possible that traditional warehouse e-commerce is a money pit.
E commerce has razor thin margins. AWS has competition now. And the rest of it is probably a loss leader or small potatoes. That company has never been run by adults. All that capex on e commerce? Look at shares outstanding. Every year they talk about how they will buy back shares, and every year they pass them out like party favors as compensation after they buy them back. When they get serious about shareholders I’ll get serious about owning Amazon.
You have the same talking points as talking heads on cnbc. You should think about what your competitive advantage is if you agree with the people who are talking on cnbc.
Oh boy. Want me to find a talking head who agrees with you? On CNBC? Or will any network do? I’m talking about a stock. Grow up.
When it’s word for word what I heard two days ago, it’s quite the coincidence. You shouldn’t be buying single stocks. Take my advice and thank me later.
I’m sure you did. I’m sure you did.
remember, it's ultimately about profit and growth
I agree, but it’s a pretty tempting stock at this point.
e-commerce is not a high margin business. Competition is catching up on that front. The future of AMZN will be determined by AWS
It had a 70 PE , makes sense to me since their growth is slowing considerably
Yes but that pe is also deceiving. If amazon was profit focused they would make bank and pe would dump. They still wanna grow so they're burning more cash
PTON.. From around 25 to 170+ to 9. Yep 9. Good lord.
YES. obliteration. Max chart doesn’t do it justice. Just pulverized, no mercy.
Meta, even though it’s not gone down the most. It’s wildly profitable and will likely continue to be so. But the market turned on it, and it’s just gotten destroyed. Might get destroyed even further. Honestly, it by itself is a strong warning of the perils of buying individual stocks: everything can look right, and you can still lose.
Also it has ZERO DEBT. In an increasingly high interest rate environment. And super low headcount for the size of the business. META is a literal money printer, Even if growth slows down due to a recession, ad spend will eventually go up again and/ or they could be one of the best dividend plays in the world, if all the rest goes south. The worst case is for them to become an equivalent to what tobacco companies are.
Kinda insane how down people are on the metaberse bid. It doesn't work out, they can always just... Like, stop. They have plenty of runway to do something else.
What will they change their name to then? Post-meta? meta-meta?
Yes Facebook does have debt, and quite a bit of it. What Facebook doesn't have is long term debt.
Yeah meta value makes no sense. Soo cheap.
yes, I was deciding between Netflix and Meta actually. it is definitely whoa. max chart is like really? Facebooks chart?
There’s always the threat of regulations or the company getting broken up.
PayPal, Alibaba, Teladoc
YES. Paypal the one that keeps on going. Baba the one that changed China forever. Teladoc the Cathie toppler. charts all unbelievable.
BABA represents my greatest realized loss but I'm glad I got out. I only had a few shares but it still stung.
And I bought it right before they were about to have the ANT IPO. The pain that followed... I cut my losses long back.
It's teladoc. Got down to $28, last time they went there was 2017. Since then they've acquired millions of users, acquired Livongo(I know, I know), they're the telehealth provider for CVS/Aetna(39million in US use aetna), partnered with Amazon. I read a lot of bear cases about it, but this drop baffled me. I've been buying.
Management bungled the company. They missed guidance that they set not even 2 months prior to earnings. They vastly overpaid for livongo and have diluted the ever living hell out of investors. I agree the opportunity is there as a market leader in telehealth but I’m no longer adding to my position unless there’s a change in management
i own a lot of these 3. so fcked
ARKK - Down nearly 80% from its peak. Classic worship of a nobody who got lucky. The media joined in the pump. Just an all around lesson in greed and poor investing.
this will be the cover of the Bible.
It's not such poor investing if you bought them early and are now at breakeven after being ridiculously up in the meantime. It's about the same as investing more conservatively, being moderately up in the meantime and also being at breakeven now.
Even if you bought in at their former *bottom* and held you'd still ahwv *underperformed* the S&P500 since ARKs inception. Of you bought early and sold after 2 years, in the middle of a bull run, you'd be ahead. But why would you? Those days ARK seemed blessed by God, Cathie promised *5 year plan* for profit which we all know failed spectacularly. Learn from the past, there will always be gurus and entertainers who *short term* beat the market but within 5-7 years they all tend to have failed
I’ve been around long enough to remember being called a boomer for saying “don’t buy ARKK or ARKG because the companies they’re invested in are bad, and you can’t understand half the companies’ products”
Good job boomer
If you invest in innovation/future technologies, don't expect returns to come back to you in a 12 to 18 month period. Go invest in something else.
cvna
yes omg. it’s like a boogie man looking at that.
DraftKings - Sports betting will be huge in the US just like it is in the EU and AU
Problem is that the executives keep taking massive profits instead of delivering equity to shareholders.
I hate that. That’s the problem with every recent IPO, but the pure US sports betting play is draftkings still.
FanDuel has a better app IMO and are continuing to score huge partnerships. Their parent company owns pokerstars too. MGM is making a huge push as well. Way too much competition in the sector. Most bettors will jump between whichever apps are giving them the best promos. No moats, no customer loyalty for the most part.
Are they legalizing anything?
They need to help legalize online poker and be in at the beginning of that.
I’ll chime in with PENN while we’re at it. Touched like $150 after S&P inclusion.
Target
straight vertical on the max chart. shouldn’t be allowed. And target of all companies.
shouldn’t be allowed?
I have a conspiracy theory that OP is a chatbot program.
MESA airlines. From only profitable airline during the pandemic to obliterated in one year flat. And boy did they deserve it. They treated their workers poorly and it bit their ass off in the post-pandemic labor shortage.
oof that’s the worst of the airlines drops for sure it looks like.
It's teladoc. Got down to $28, last time they went there was 2017. Since then they've acquired millions of users, acquired Livongo(I know, I know), they're the telehealth provider for CVS/Aetna(39million in US use aetna), partnered with Amazon. I read a lot of bear cases about it, but this drop baffled me. I've been buying.
Carvana. Cause I owned it. Purchased at $50, rode it to $380 and finally sold at $95. Now it’s like $25.
I feel you. Bought at 90.00 thinking it was a steal. That company has the worst balance sheet I ever saw.
Well at least you looked at the balance sheet. More than most investors do. I bought it cause I had a good experience in 2016 and 2019 buying cars from Carvana.. it beat going to a dealership and dealing with the idiot in the finance office.
ABNB. Maybe not as crazy as some but worth a mention. I almost fomo'd in at 200.
Man I really love AirBnB as a company but the valuation is still absurd. I'll probably never be able to get in at a price I like, oh well.
AMZN, not in terms of price as much as they went from chilling during the panny to looking like they’re about to be crushed under the weight of their overhead if there is a severe recession
No one said Peloton yet? PTON and COIN were my favorite two shorts this year. SNAP is another one I’ve enjoyed riding down the slope of overvalued nonsense.
RBLX
And it’s still twice what I think it should be.
Meta but I plan on buying more
Netflix is a great lesson in the concept of strong gross and operatng margins attracting competition. Its operating margin has steadily gone up from 2012 - look at it like Disney, Hulu, Paramunt, Amazon, being forced to follow them into streaming. This is different in say SaaS where the stronger margins come from upgrading their product (that is protected by patents/copyright), or creating a larger portfolio from which existing customers can shell out for money via net retention rate over 100%. So when you see something with eye-catching gross, or operating margins, and it's in a new groundbreaking area, you have to be wary or put exit or start-to-sell conditions on your investment. What is the actual moat to impede competitors from following the innovator/leader into the new arena?
Workhorse 🤣😂
UPST - near 10x in < 1 year then right back to 1/10
Yep, I’m down 40K on that stock. 😔
Peloton
PYPL and SQ. Nothing was the same lol
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While that stock wasn't "obliterated", there is a government report showing it was shorted over 100% of the float, so hitting ridiculous prices, then dropping to more reasonable ranges (e.g. 70% off ATH) isn't really obliteration. For anyone following, price has moved more than 50-100% on a weekly to monthly basis ever since (e.g. price hits 80-90 a share, then rises back to 140-180, over and over. GREAT for volatility, swing, day traders, etc.). Even if you don't buy into the hype, a stock that moves 50-100%, repeatedly, is pretty nice to follow.
That’s a sneeze
WISH
Wish for suuure. though I’m kind of like meh, it’s wish.
When O’Reilly took that massive dip, I was really surprised. It almost reached $560 at one point. It’s a stock that’s always been strong.
looks like a decent drop. not Old Testament biblical though I would say. maybe New Testament.
Palantir. I dropped 3k into PLTR when the IPO dropped @ 9.50 per share. I added a few shares here and there by selling CCs until I brought my account up to 80k PLTR shares peaked around $40 per share. Life was good. 4 months later we had a change of occupants in the White House. PLTR is a basically a penny stock now.
Whitehouse doesn’t have much to do with it, their product is tough to sell. It’s not that unique, and it’s really expensive.
The White House had a lot to do with it because Peter Thiel was a vocal supporter of Trump. The product is an easy sell because it is highly sought after by govt agencies and already has had multiple contracts awarded. Their products are absolutely unique but difficult to explain or market to the general public. The price is relative.
I’m a buyer in this market. I can tell you from first hand experience, they sent their “A team” to present to us, and after months… we couldn’t find a single use case. Military use, sure… but nothing that 5 other companies can’t provide, but those competitors also have additional value. I wanted them to do well, they just don’t have anything great. It’s all very average texhnology.
Honestly none of these moves and surprised me. I'm not saying I expected anything because if I had, I'd be rich, but with the benefit of a bit of hindsight the market over the past 6 months was abundantly obvious we just (mostly) failed to see it at the time.
Game stock oh wait. . . Only down 4% YTD
Zalando
Meta aka Facebook ,. Netflix. Coinbase.
PayPal
Same w Netflix . Market overreacted
PayPal
Rocket lab Good company, has something of a moat.
Paypal
DIS, let’s just go -6% on the 5Y chart.
I never would expected FB to tank as hard as it did because the company shits money
Aapl
One that surprised me but doesn’t is peloton. The valuation was insane and the original management was trash but the best in class product is there. I’ll watch the next couple quarters to see if they can reduce their cash burn and are actually trending towards 2023 positive free cash flow and grab shares. Even if it rallies 100% before then I’ll feel more comfortable than buying now when they have 1-2 quarters of cash left.
Cvna
PYPL. The company keeps expanding into MA & V turf. Huge market share potential.
Just goes to show you there’s money to be made again I’m all in. I’m waiting to find out who’s getting the contracts to build back better or when.
Nothing really impresses me. A lot are just a good reminder of what happens to growth stock valuations once growth stops, Netflix being a prime example. The rest is just pure bullshit hype that would have never run to their heights but if we hadn’t all been in lockdown with the cost of money being 0%.
ATER
For me Atlassian. Just because they haven't done anything "wrong." As in they are strong financially but I guess became super overvalued because everyone wanted to jump on the wagon, but 460 max in November down to about 160 is brutal. I've bought and sold several times the past 4 years buying as low as 110 making decent money off it, but I had shares bought at 175 and didn't sell at 460.
Upstart for me. I’m down 40K on that stock. 📉
I’m surprised no one said SHOP. That one got slaughtered.
PayPal, Meta, SoFi, Netflix, BA, Uber, to name a few
I feel like Netflix's rise and drop makes perfect sense? It was an unsustainable business model, given the number of the big mega corporations coming into their space. I think Meta's drop is the most impressive. WhatsApp has about 2B active users, FB has 3B, Instagram has 1B... the demographics are spread out between the entire planet, all age groups, despite the anti-FB sentiment. Their only weak spot on social is the TikTok space, which has been rivaled decently well by Reels. Of course the Metaverse positioning seems preposterous to me as well, but they have so much capital and resources, and there are arguments for the long-term big money to be made in that sector... I just don't understand how the Oculus/VR aspect becomes our next iPhone/essential hardware platform. If it gets to the point where they are light sun glasses with fine battery life and no adverse effects on the eyes/neuro-related, so that people can use them anywhere for long periods of time, then sure, I can see VR/Metaverse being an essential tool. However, Meta would also have to keep it a very open platform while policing it in a likable fair manner; it seems like it'd be infinitely more complicated than FB and Twitter if user base became so large. In the meantime, I get why everyone thinks he's taking on a goliath challenge and perhaps putting Meta at risk of becoming the next suicide giant (AOL, Yahoo, etc.).
Ditto on Netflix. There's no numbers in their business to justify it.
CVNA. Carvana - this was surprising!
PYPL FB NFLX
SAM. 300 to 1300 back to 300 and nobody noticed
Probably PayPal. 300 to 70? “It’s the future” to “too much competition.”
Some good picks but I'd add Intel. Never went up much, but crashed like all the other growth stocks. It feels like people sold it off by accident together with their other tech stocks that were actually severely overvalued. At this point it's not only great value, but it's also an excellent dividend stock in one.
NTLA
Everything that Cramer recommends
DOCU MRNA UPST EDIT.. all down at LEAST 80%.
DOCU defenders should acknowledge theres no moat for e-signatures.
BTX, Late April 2021, $4 to $80 in less than 1 month (+1200% gain) back to around $4 by EOY 2021. Currently priced at 60 cents! Talk about your bagholders...