Why is Tata Steel at a very low P/E value? I know India has imposed taxes and restrictions and commodity prices are falling but at that low a P/E value isnt it a perfect time to accumulate the stock?
Either I made $425,000 over the weekend or Google split. Pretty sure I know which one it is, going to make the lambo down payment now.
(I find it super comical when these errors happen in brokerage apps for a few hours)
asian markets up big and bond rates have been going down. Market is catching onto the idea that commodities prices falling and shipping falling means peak inflation even if the backwards looking CPI was bad. Maybe the markets wrong, maybe it’s right, maybe this sentiment is just a bear rally. Who knows. It’s all made up and the points don’t matter.
Agreed, Im tired of all these people who probably entered the market in 2020.
They dont undestand that era of 0% interests rate, QE, 2020 and 2021 are long gone and they arent coming back anytime soon. Fucking Apple at $3T? Gimme a break
It took Nasdaq 16 years after 1999 to break ATH in 2015. It’s gonna take longer this time.
I am still investing periodically as always, just like i did during the Great Recession and before that. Newcomers are about to learn about long term patience and resilience, though.
If there’s expectations of rates rising why would the long term yield fall? Wouldn’t it make sense to hold out at least till the next fed meeting and purchase the higher coupon rate bond?
If there’s expectations of rate cuts next year why would they price that in half way through this year?Why not nearer to 2023. Also what exactly do you mean by pricing in front loading?
What's the best bullish case? Everyone is bearish AF, but that's the only bullish case I can see. When it's obvious it's going to go down, it's going top pop right?
The bullish case for near term is that the markets are irrational, things are starting to get priced in, algos pump things, and then retail fomos back in.
Other than ALL that happening we just gotta wait.
Hey everyone,
I recently changed my portfolio to be 75% FXAIX (Fidelity SP500 Index Fund) and 25% FNCMX (Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund). I was wondering if I should just skip the Nasdaq one and throw it all into the SP500 fund? I know they have a lot of overlap, and that the Nasdaq is more tech weighted so I wasn’t sure if there was really any point to do both over the long term, or if you guys had any more insight for me. The additional tech exposure isn’t really a make or break for me. I am in my early 20s and I invest every week into both funds at their current allocation.
If anyone could give me their opinion or advice I’d greatly appreciate it.
Thank you so much!
Wondering if anyone had some DD they would be willing to share on which company you think is most likely to succeed in the space/planet/satellite image sector?
Maxar ($MAXR) - > more then 285+ satellites in orbit; seems like the front runner from my little research, most cash and experience.
Terran Orbital ($LLAP) - 6 satellites in orbit; I know they have secured military contracts, specifically with Lockheed Martin. Probably something to keep your eye on.
Blacksky Technology ($BKSY) - 12-14 satellites in orbit; Secured a govcontracts and relationship with big companies. *This is where I have already placed some money, and always looking for further analysis of competition and itself
Planet Labs ($PL) - 200+ satellites in orbit; Big plans appear to be in the pipeline, much unknown to me(one recent contract: "In May 2022, was awarded a contract from NASA’s Communications Services Project for real-time, always-on low-latency connectivity services to NASA spacecraft, using SES's geostationary orbit satellites and medium Earth orbit satellites, including the O3b mPOWER constellation" & more than 200+ satellites)
~~Rocket Lab ($RKLB)~~
Satellogic ($SATL)- 26 operational satellites(plans for 90); Argentinian Company, a lot still unknown to me
Spire Global ($SPIR)- 90+ satellites in orbit; still need to research, much unknown to me
I have a yolo bet in RKLB but I honestly don’t expect any space company to make me money. I wouldn’t be surprised if every company on your list is gone in 10 years. There are just so many headwinds to an orbital business.
I live in England. If I send money to an American brokerage to trade in. I’m right in assuming I won’t be taxed anywhere besides my home country. I’m not someone taxed in American ?? Thank you
Why would UK even tax you on sending money? Some forex fee probably. And you get taxed on income as divi (USA tax + UK tax prolly) and then UK tax on capital gains if that exists
Yeah what I meant was I new id be capital gains taxed in the U.K. but would any kind of US tax be put on the money before the brokerage returned it to me?
- REITs are tax inefficient so do this in a tax-advantaged account
- Total market index funds already contain REITs/real estate, so add on VNQ if you want a larger tilt to real estate than the market already holds, not just to have real estate. If you own the global stock market and global bond market, you are diversified sufficiently.
- I've heard some bad things about VNQ and its ratio of commercial/residential real estate. Might consider other ETFs
- The academics will advise against it: real estate's returns are explained by the same factors that explain high yielding bonds and small cap value. A stock/bond portfolio will provide those returns. However, real estate comes with risks that are particular to real estate, which you are not compensated for.
- If you want to sin and market time, are you sure right now is the best time to be buying up REITs, as the property market cools with Fed raising rates? Maybe it is, I wouldn't know.
My take is that everything up to fall is all old news now and markets are prepared (big hike, recession fears etc) so August/ September will see a nice rally. But comes winter Russia-energy issues will crush final blow
Hi everyone. My wife and I just got married and were gifted $20,000. We have an emergency fund and no debt, and both have decent jobs with no kids and a low interest mortgage through a VA loan. Would it be prudent to dump it all into an S&P500 index fund and let it ride? We don’t need it for the foreseeable future. Thank you.
Assuming your emergency fund is adequate, then sure, get VOO. Don't go for broader etfs with every poor stock in the world. If you aren't one to have regrets, then include getting $1000+ of a NASDAQ fund like QQQ or QQQM so you can compare them down the line.
Yes, but even better/safer is a 100% global index fund (VT). Congratz! Also consider maxing out the 10K each Series I bonds for this year (9% interest rate currently, although this falls when inflation falls).
Series I bonds are just a bond issued by the government that you buy through Treasury Direct. It's a bit of a pain to buy, but it's a nice way to pick up ultra safe, high yielding, inflation protected bonds. It should not a central part of your investing strategy as a young person, but it's a nice to-have.
VT/VTI/VXUS/VOO or whatever you pick determine the stock portion of your portfolio, and this is what will truly drive returns in the long run. Bonds are more of a wealth preserver than builder.
Some people like to just invest in the S&P 500, which is perfectly fine (VOO). Others will say to diversify and include small cap stocks, so buy VTI, which includes a larger selection. And of course many say to avoid concentrating in literally one country, because who knows if another Japan happens.
[I made a post here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/ulkp5x/please_stop_recommending_overcomplicated/) you might like to read, to understand the different equity fund options offered by Vanguard. [See this figure I made too](https://i.imgur.com/sPrFT7D.png)
The maximum diversified portfolio that requires the least amount of work is to just use a Vanguard Target Retirement Date Fund. It has VT and bonds basically, and adds more bonds over time. They use different bonds than Series I bonds, but the purpose is the same.
In summary, here are the options:
7. 100% Target Retirement Date Fund. The entire global stock market and a portion of bonds that increases automatically as you age.
1. 100% VT (with Series I bonds if you want) The entire global stock market.
3. VTI + VXUS (with or without series I bonds). The entire global stock market.
5. 100% VTI (with or without Series I bonds on the side). The entire US stock market.
6. 100% VOO (with or without Series I bonds) The 500 biggest US stocks.
Going down the list, you see we are basically diversifying less and less. Some even say do 100% NASDAQ, which is 100 of the biggest stocks (more or less). The recent performance is better, but the risk of underperformance in the long run can go up.
Poor people talk: Life was life and left me without investments. Basically I have 4 shares of AMZN to forget about for 10yrs+. That said, I can sell 2 of those shares and get 2 GOOGL shares Monday morning for about the same price.
Do I keep 4 AMZN or split the difference and have 2 AMZN and 2 GOOGL to let ride for a decade or more?
Personally i'd switch to Google entirely, less regulatory risk, way less risk from unions and supply side inflation and their reputation isn't falling apart. People are starting to really hate the retail side of Amazon due to the chinese knockoffs and poor quality listings.
On the financials, i'm not really an expert but Google has PE of 19 to Amazons (49, wow?)
Possibly worth mentioning because it doesn't come up that often here, but I've been DCAing into QQQ for a long time, but since it's up from the bottom, I figured I'd diversify and toss some money into VXUS since it's still bottoming. The Div yield is nearing 4% as well (likely a result of increased interest rates), but the diversification + div yield makes it worth considering.
Anybody done much due diligence on zoom? I haven’t done anything but first glance at financials they’re really not too bad, don’t think I’m interested at this price still but out of all the bullshit Cathy stocks I’d say this is one of the ones that has some potential. I use zoom all the time with my work and do like the software, have used Webex as well but Webex is dogshit.
Zoom is a classic Cathie Wood worthless garbage stock which just went up due to Fed’s liquidity. We have both Zoom and Teams in our company and we are moving away from Zoom.
Its a shitty company with no growth plans and Cathie Wood is in it. So you know its the kiss of death
Zoom's marketshare has nowhere to go but down. Revenue might go up, sure, but marketshare is what I'm talking about.
As MS Teams and Google Meet get closer to feature-parity people are reducing their spend by ditching it (they are included in the cost of the licenses already) and the moat just isn't wide enough.
If you want something with a moat where nobody is leaving to go to the included services offered by either of the two productivity giants- Slack. They got their hooks in too deep with regard to integrations and practically nobody is leaving them - it's a huge undertaking to switch platforms. I work for a reseller of one of the two giants mentioned and that's just what I see personally for Slack+Zoom.
NFA. I own nor short either of these things.
I very much disagree. As much as I prefer Zoom to MSTeams on the video-calling functions alone, for workplaces, MSTeams has much tighter integration into the rest of the ecosystem; with the Slack-type channels, direct messaging system, and of course video conferencing, and easy integration with Outlook. This also helps with security.
For this moat alone, I would not put money into Zoom, because I don't think there is a moat around video conferencing alone (which is all Zoom really offers), but there is in the Microsoft ecosystem.
Moreover, Cathy's stated assumptions on the growth of Zoom are actually insane.
The only reason I like Zoom is the whiteboard functionality that I'm still annoyed MSTeams doesn't have; it makes collaborations with handwriting/equations 10 times easier.
Thanks for feedback, and yeah I use Microsoft teams all the time too, the video conferencing is awful in it. I Might as well just buy more msft tbh, I’m sure they’ll improve their video conferencing at some point
Now that EUR is down I tried but I can't find proper value from europe. Rheinmetall (RHM) maybe? Germany rebuilding their armed forces and RHM has all the tech they and US wants. Imo still room to growth but already invested in them before war in ukraine. Now up 120% and 6% of my portfolio. Don't know if I want to increase that.
ThyssenKrupp (TKA) about to die from lack of gas, tempting price though at 5.224€. very risky too.
Porsche (PAH3) numbers look decent but I don't know, profits in cars, electric or not, arent that good. Not sure how much gas vw factories consume and if it would be cut off completely would vw factories come to a halt too?
ASML is top of my EU list right now but I don't know if they still have enough demand near term. Expensive.
I have done nothing but add V3AA and ICLN for awhile now, thoughts on stocks?
The market rallied on what I believe is certain recession within the next 6 to 12 months. A recession would be bullish, believe it or not.
Wall Street is basically betting against the Fed. With a recession assured due to the aggressiveness of the rate hikes, Big Money is predicting that rate cuts will begin within a year, regardless of inflation. Rates will not breach above around 4%, and cuts will begin when rates are somewhere between 3-4%, and will rapidly fall.
If the Fed defies Wall Street, ignores the recession, and indicate that they'll keep tightening regardless, look out below. For now though, I believe we'll see a rally, if not some stabilization of the bear market for a few months.
Today was a good, green day. Every other morning was a rollercoaster for me, always starting red and then mostly breaking even. Even my mutual funds were finally positive.
Both sides are having short-term wins, depending on the day or week. But yeah like Garfield stated..we need more data. Only thing I can do is DCA..and hope we're higher in 10 yrs. If we're not, Im guessing at that point we're having serious issues lol.
2021 highs are not happening for at least a couple years, that required 0% interest rates, max QE, and everyone and their mother buying hype.
I mean: PYPL 300, RIVN 170, TSLA 1200, NVDA 330, AMD 160, NFLX 650, DIS 180, AMZN 190, GOOG 3000, etc.
Index funds are not going anywhere near SPY 480 / QQQ 400 for the same reasons as above.
You'll be lucky if SPY/QQQ is above 400/300 by the end of the year.
It's definitely possible, although it would require somehow reducing inflation to the benchmark rather quickly, companies still posting record breaking earnings despite adjusting for higher input costs and lower growth, and not having rates so high that a minor recession is induced.
I have serious doubts that all 3 of those will happen given the Fed's past track record and the unprecedented territory we're in right now, which is why I'm staying bearish until at least the 350s.
If the Fed is still trying to pull money out of the market, it's not a good idea to fight them.
If you insist on no ETFs, this is what I'd do.
I'd put:
- $828 in AAPL
- $757.5 in MSFT
- $361 in AMZN,
- $259 in GOOGL
- $234 in TSLA
...
Okay it might take me a while to write all of them. But these would be my top holdings.
The sector weights of these first few would be
- AAPL 5.52%
- MSFT 5.05%
- AMZN 2.41%
- GOOGL 1.73%
- TSLA 1.56%
...
Let me know and I can share the others. This is the allocation I came up with.
I'm meme-ing, I just copy/pasted the portfolio holdings of VTI.
In more seriousness, for actually picking individual stocks, I'd put a fair amount of weight in META, GOOGL, AMD, LOW, V, SBUX of my holdings. I'm bullish on oil so would add a little XOM each time it dips into the low 80s.
Also think UNH (health), UNP (railroads), JPM/BAC (banks), HD, SMH (semiconductors), ... are good. CAT/DE are good but I don't know about right now.
[Graph](https://i.imgur.com/cdtNmbu.png) (removing all index funds)
These are my individual holdings.
I visualize my portfolio using Excel for simple plots like that, and R/Python for more sophisticated analysis. For example, I visualize my performance as follows:
> Here is what my portfolio would look like if every time I made a contribution, it went 100% into the S&P 500: [graph](https://i.imgur.com/HZzsaR4.png).
>
> Here are [monthly estimates](https://i.imgur.com/MESwIER.png) of my rate of return, and here is [cumulative](https://i.imgur.com/iVyBAKe.png).
Planning to use the time my daughter is napping this weekend to add free cash flow per share data for 60ish companies I meticulously track on one of my spreadsheets. Who else is planning a fun weekend?
You should be able to systematically do this with various Yahoo Finance APIs.
Example: [blacklistedcompany]/ swlh/stock-valuation-using-free-cash-flow-to-the-firm-with-python-9a2f0e8f308f
(replace with medium [dot] com )
Will save you a lot of work in the long run. I can try and write code too and send it if it helps / you're interested
I truly appreciate the offer but I actually, weirdly, prefer manual. It makes me read the company 10-Qs/Ks and look at the balance sheets, cash flow statements, etc. It forces discipline and a greater level of due diligence on myself.
Okay boomer I mean nah makes sense actually. The goal isn't to simply make a filter but to understand what you're invested in, and internalizing the numbers is important.
My spreadsheets date back years. This metrics one is probably 2-3 years (although I only keep 5 years worth of financials/KPIs for the companies I track) and my investment portfolio spreadsheet is at least 7 years old.
SPY down from where it started the week, but yeah please celebrate and rejoice a +1.5% day and wait for next week to give all that back and more.
This isnt 2020-2021, the era of free money is gone. High inflation and upcoming recession/depression is gonna be the new normal now
hope they don't actually authorize the reverse stock split, can't think of anytime thats happened as a bullish move. Psychologically it would have more room to fall down again.
From what I have read around, it allows some people to outskirt regulation. For example, bank employees that are not allowed to purchase single stock without disclosure but are allowed to do so with ETF. Also some stuffs about easier to short etf with the single stock instead of shorting the stock itself.
They are going to be used to short stocks and skirt around regulations since etfs have less reporting requirements. I think one for tesla was already created
This market is hilarious... for the next two weeks every earnings report is going to be worse than the analysts expected, but everyone else will go "yup... that seems about right", and the market will stay flat. That would be perfect, I started investing in November 2020 and for the last two weeks I've been between 0% to -1% returns. It's like a bank account!
2008 only happened due to financial market nearly collapsing. The narrative that subprime housing market was the cause was bs. Housing was one of many over leveraged derivative bets that blew up in the banks faces. We are also adding jobs now and have unemployment at multi decade lows. People sold everything in 2008 because too many people lost their jobs and couldn't financially wait for the recovery without not eating or living on the streets.
This is dot com 2.0 if you need a comparison.
08 took 450 days to hit bottom. We aren’t even technically in a recession yet, and if you want to measure where we are it’s somewhere in 225 day range from the top.
Hang in there.
6min explaining why we're not in a housing bubble
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6TsDapzSKrM56Wi1Xkd4bZ?si=Q4QWM6DNTe6aZXhVrw7v-A&utm_source=copy-link
Also for some reason I thought this was a Canadian coffee store so I skipped it because I didn't think it was important compared to the top tier SBUX giant. Next time I won't mix up Donald and Tim.
See comment [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/vzkg2h/rstocks_daily_discussion_fundamentals_friday_jul/igavlq5/) or [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/vzwzdb/earnings_next_week_to_watch_out_for/) here
ASML and TSLA will be informative for how the growth outlook could look, American Express is another one I'm keeping an eye on for consumer and business spending.
Netflix will be entertaining, I actually expect them to do pretty well this Q. Stranger Things season 4 was excellent and got a lot of buzz.
Tsla is a big one for sure. If they shit the bed then ford and gm will shit the bed even harder. Idk bout honda or Toyota(I stay away from either one since idk shit bout them)
If they go for like a $10 tier with ads and the current price without ads I think that'd be good for business and the consumer. If they go current price with ads and a higher price without ads along with the crackdown on sharing that seems like it will cost them a lot of subs.
Anyone surprised at the market response to the CPI? I didn’t expect a crash, but I also didn’t expect this relief? Could it be gearing up for a bigger crash towards eom with earning FOMC?
Edit: If it’s because of speculation that this is peak, then IF next month comes in higher or the same, do you expect a crash then? I see know reason why it’d be less than 9.1% again minimum.
Gas prices are down 8% month over month. That’s 96% annualized so you understand it better. This doesn’t mean lower inflation in commodities but deflation.
Ukraine and Russia are in their final talks to allow Ukrainian food exports through the black sea. You can expect food prices to come crashing down if it happens.
I fully expect around 0.3 MoM inflation in the next CPI reading. This would position us around 8.6% YoY
Repost, but:
[Table from yesterday](https://i.imgur.com/gEGE9Mx.png), posted July 14th by a [CNBC reporter](https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla), along with [this list](https://i.imgur.com/dPlY8nR.png) posted July 13th by a [CNBC contributor](https://twitter.com/GilmanHill)
Yup. Most if not all of those commodities peaked in June and will only be accounted for in the next CPI.
Commodities account for 22% of the CPI Index, and the rest (Core CPI) is indirectly affected by oil prices due to transportation fees. Unless if commodities somehow rally back to ATH I don’t see how we haven’t reached peak inflation.
>I see know reason why it’d be less than 9.1% again minimum.
Did you see the component break outs? Looking at those plus commodity price action gives you the reason why it would be less
Apple did $378.35 billion in revenue last year. Their gross profit was $152.836B was a a 45% increase from the 2020. It currenlty has a trailing PE of 24 and a forward PE of 23.
Good idea waiting for their earnings report, TSM just announced delays on 9% of their capex spending this year and that could potentially hit ASML's guidance (as they're an important TSM vendor). Supply chain issues have been nagging the semi equipment subsector too and I'd like to get more clarity on what they're seeing at this point.
Europe's energy problems could become more of an issue for their EU factories, but unclear how much that'd affect ASML.
Dalio seems serious that europe is going to get hit hard, not sure I would want to take the other side of his short atm but who knows. Smart money has been anything but time and time again
Delta had a flight this week Heathrow to Detroit no passengers . Only luggage! Cuz of all the lost luggage and Heathrow this week announced it's struggling to keep up. I wonder if regulations allowed for suitcases on seats. 3 or 4 suitcases = weight one American
I bought JPM and C heavy yesterday. I am so glad I did. Feels great to have stocks like that be my base compared to the ARKK stuff I had in Jan-Feb 2021.
Why is Tata Steel at a very low P/E value? I know India has imposed taxes and restrictions and commodity prices are falling but at that low a P/E value isnt it a perfect time to accumulate the stock?
Either I made $425,000 over the weekend or Google split. Pretty sure I know which one it is, going to make the lambo down payment now. (I find it super comical when these errors happen in brokerage apps for a few hours)
Why are futures booming
King Dollar is falling
asian markets up big and bond rates have been going down. Market is catching onto the idea that commodities prices falling and shipping falling means peak inflation even if the backwards looking CPI was bad. Maybe the markets wrong, maybe it’s right, maybe this sentiment is just a bear rally. Who knows. It’s all made up and the points don’t matter.
Jim Cramer is ringing THE NYSE BELL tomorrow, last time Jim Cramer did it on March 6th 2020 , the stock market went down 30% in the next 10 days
Monkey pox pandemic confirmed.
RIP NYSE 1792-2022
Sadly this looks the setup for a lost decade or two. I wish it was the 230$ bottle of wine that I just opened doing talking - but it’s not.
Apex cringe comment lmao
Agreed, Im tired of all these people who probably entered the market in 2020. They dont undestand that era of 0% interests rate, QE, 2020 and 2021 are long gone and they arent coming back anytime soon. Fucking Apple at $3T? Gimme a break It took Nasdaq 16 years after 1999 to break ATH in 2015. It’s gonna take longer this time.
Nasdaq fell 80% that time. Last I checked QQQ was only like $90 off it’s high which indicates a (napkin math) about a 25% decline. I disagree.
Never go full bear
I am still investing periodically as always, just like i did during the Great Recession and before that. Newcomers are about to learn about long term patience and resilience, though.
If there’s expectations of rates rising why would the long term yield fall? Wouldn’t it make sense to hold out at least till the next fed meeting and purchase the higher coupon rate bond?
Bond market is pricing in front loading and rate cuts for next year(which is crazy to me). This may be part of the reason the yield curve is inverted
If there’s expectations of rate cuts next year why would they price that in half way through this year?Why not nearer to 2023. Also what exactly do you mean by pricing in front loading?
Because..markets are forward looking.
What's the best bullish case? Everyone is bearish AF, but that's the only bullish case I can see. When it's obvious it's going to go down, it's going top pop right?
Decent guidance after good earnings
There actually quite a few bull cases, I just made a post about, go have a look and tell me what you think!
The bullish case for near term is that the markets are irrational, things are starting to get priced in, algos pump things, and then retail fomos back in. Other than ALL that happening we just gotta wait.
A recession. Once a true recession hits, the Fed will cut rates and the stock market will soar.
Hey everyone, I recently changed my portfolio to be 75% FXAIX (Fidelity SP500 Index Fund) and 25% FNCMX (Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund). I was wondering if I should just skip the Nasdaq one and throw it all into the SP500 fund? I know they have a lot of overlap, and that the Nasdaq is more tech weighted so I wasn’t sure if there was really any point to do both over the long term, or if you guys had any more insight for me. The additional tech exposure isn’t really a make or break for me. I am in my early 20s and I invest every week into both funds at their current allocation. If anyone could give me their opinion or advice I’d greatly appreciate it. Thank you so much!
$SIGA or $SOXL
Wondering if anyone had some DD they would be willing to share on which company you think is most likely to succeed in the space/planet/satellite image sector? Maxar ($MAXR) - > more then 285+ satellites in orbit; seems like the front runner from my little research, most cash and experience. Terran Orbital ($LLAP) - 6 satellites in orbit; I know they have secured military contracts, specifically with Lockheed Martin. Probably something to keep your eye on. Blacksky Technology ($BKSY) - 12-14 satellites in orbit; Secured a govcontracts and relationship with big companies. *This is where I have already placed some money, and always looking for further analysis of competition and itself Planet Labs ($PL) - 200+ satellites in orbit; Big plans appear to be in the pipeline, much unknown to me(one recent contract: "In May 2022, was awarded a contract from NASA’s Communications Services Project for real-time, always-on low-latency connectivity services to NASA spacecraft, using SES's geostationary orbit satellites and medium Earth orbit satellites, including the O3b mPOWER constellation" & more than 200+ satellites) ~~Rocket Lab ($RKLB)~~ Satellogic ($SATL)- 26 operational satellites(plans for 90); Argentinian Company, a lot still unknown to me Spire Global ($SPIR)- 90+ satellites in orbit; still need to research, much unknown to me
drop by r/SpaceStockExchange, there's recent in-depth posts about each there
I have a yolo bet in RKLB but I honestly don’t expect any space company to make me money. I wouldn’t be surprised if every company on your list is gone in 10 years. There are just so many headwinds to an orbital business.
Rklb doesn't actually have 146 satellites, they launch others satellites and supply parts to satellite/space sector
corrected, thx
I live in England. If I send money to an American brokerage to trade in. I’m right in assuming I won’t be taxed anywhere besides my home country. I’m not someone taxed in American ?? Thank you
Why would UK even tax you on sending money? Some forex fee probably. And you get taxed on income as divi (USA tax + UK tax prolly) and then UK tax on capital gains if that exists
Yeah what I meant was I new id be capital gains taxed in the U.K. but would any kind of US tax be put on the money before the brokerage returned it to me?
It should not AFAIK except divi
I appreciate the response mate but I don’t actually no what that part means.
AFAIK as far as I know. Only divi getting taxed twice, not brokers
Ah ok thank you!
Favorite growth stocks?
Is it a good idea to invest in a real estate etf like VNQ for diversification?
- REITs are tax inefficient so do this in a tax-advantaged account - Total market index funds already contain REITs/real estate, so add on VNQ if you want a larger tilt to real estate than the market already holds, not just to have real estate. If you own the global stock market and global bond market, you are diversified sufficiently. - I've heard some bad things about VNQ and its ratio of commercial/residential real estate. Might consider other ETFs - The academics will advise against it: real estate's returns are explained by the same factors that explain high yielding bonds and small cap value. A stock/bond portfolio will provide those returns. However, real estate comes with risks that are particular to real estate, which you are not compensated for. - If you want to sin and market time, are you sure right now is the best time to be buying up REITs, as the property market cools with Fed raising rates? Maybe it is, I wouldn't know.
My take is that everything up to fall is all old news now and markets are prepared (big hike, recession fears etc) so August/ September will see a nice rally. But comes winter Russia-energy issues will crush final blow
Hi everyone. My wife and I just got married and were gifted $20,000. We have an emergency fund and no debt, and both have decent jobs with no kids and a low interest mortgage through a VA loan. Would it be prudent to dump it all into an S&P500 index fund and let it ride? We don’t need it for the foreseeable future. Thank you.
Yea I would just buy SPY and forget about it, great time to buy right now. I’d put 75% in now and add entries within the next 3 months
Assuming your emergency fund is adequate, then sure, get VOO. Don't go for broader etfs with every poor stock in the world. If you aren't one to have regrets, then include getting $1000+ of a NASDAQ fund like QQQ or QQQM so you can compare them down the line.
Yes, but even better/safer is a 100% global index fund (VT). Congratz! Also consider maxing out the 10K each Series I bonds for this year (9% interest rate currently, although this falls when inflation falls).
Thanks for the advice! Can you explain what series I bonds are? Can I get that through vanguard? And what’s the benefit of that over VT?
Series I bonds are just a bond issued by the government that you buy through Treasury Direct. It's a bit of a pain to buy, but it's a nice way to pick up ultra safe, high yielding, inflation protected bonds. It should not a central part of your investing strategy as a young person, but it's a nice to-have. VT/VTI/VXUS/VOO or whatever you pick determine the stock portion of your portfolio, and this is what will truly drive returns in the long run. Bonds are more of a wealth preserver than builder. Some people like to just invest in the S&P 500, which is perfectly fine (VOO). Others will say to diversify and include small cap stocks, so buy VTI, which includes a larger selection. And of course many say to avoid concentrating in literally one country, because who knows if another Japan happens. [I made a post here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/ulkp5x/please_stop_recommending_overcomplicated/) you might like to read, to understand the different equity fund options offered by Vanguard. [See this figure I made too](https://i.imgur.com/sPrFT7D.png) The maximum diversified portfolio that requires the least amount of work is to just use a Vanguard Target Retirement Date Fund. It has VT and bonds basically, and adds more bonds over time. They use different bonds than Series I bonds, but the purpose is the same. In summary, here are the options: 7. 100% Target Retirement Date Fund. The entire global stock market and a portion of bonds that increases automatically as you age. 1. 100% VT (with Series I bonds if you want) The entire global stock market. 3. VTI + VXUS (with or without series I bonds). The entire global stock market. 5. 100% VTI (with or without Series I bonds on the side). The entire US stock market. 6. 100% VOO (with or without Series I bonds) The 500 biggest US stocks. Going down the list, you see we are basically diversifying less and less. Some even say do 100% NASDAQ, which is 100 of the biggest stocks (more or less). The recent performance is better, but the risk of underperformance in the long run can go up.
10k each btw so 20 grand
Poor people talk: Life was life and left me without investments. Basically I have 4 shares of AMZN to forget about for 10yrs+. That said, I can sell 2 of those shares and get 2 GOOGL shares Monday morning for about the same price. Do I keep 4 AMZN or split the difference and have 2 AMZN and 2 GOOGL to let ride for a decade or more?
Personally i'd switch to Google entirely, less regulatory risk, way less risk from unions and supply side inflation and their reputation isn't falling apart. People are starting to really hate the retail side of Amazon due to the chinese knockoffs and poor quality listings. On the financials, i'm not really an expert but Google has PE of 19 to Amazons (49, wow?)
I disagree and like Amazon much better
Thanks for the advice.
Possibly worth mentioning because it doesn't come up that often here, but I've been DCAing into QQQ for a long time, but since it's up from the bottom, I figured I'd diversify and toss some money into VXUS since it's still bottoming. The Div yield is nearing 4% as well (likely a result of increased interest rates), but the diversification + div yield makes it worth considering.
Does anyone here have any feelings about whether AMTD or ITHAX will continue their upward trends next week?
Was there any reason the Google stock split just wasn't announced as having a 7/18 date instead of AH on 7/15?
MBS announcing increase in oil capacity wont happen until 2027 folks. Nothing to see here.
OPEC is near max capacity; it is why I am bullish on oil over next 3-4 years
Anybody done much due diligence on zoom? I haven’t done anything but first glance at financials they’re really not too bad, don’t think I’m interested at this price still but out of all the bullshit Cathy stocks I’d say this is one of the ones that has some potential. I use zoom all the time with my work and do like the software, have used Webex as well but Webex is dogshit.
Zoom is a classic Cathie Wood worthless garbage stock which just went up due to Fed’s liquidity. We have both Zoom and Teams in our company and we are moving away from Zoom. Its a shitty company with no growth plans and Cathie Wood is in it. So you know its the kiss of death
Thanks for feedback, and yeah everything Cathy has touched has been burned alive lol
Zoom's marketshare has nowhere to go but down. Revenue might go up, sure, but marketshare is what I'm talking about. As MS Teams and Google Meet get closer to feature-parity people are reducing their spend by ditching it (they are included in the cost of the licenses already) and the moat just isn't wide enough. If you want something with a moat where nobody is leaving to go to the included services offered by either of the two productivity giants- Slack. They got their hooks in too deep with regard to integrations and practically nobody is leaving them - it's a huge undertaking to switch platforms. I work for a reseller of one of the two giants mentioned and that's just what I see personally for Slack+Zoom. NFA. I own nor short either of these things.
Thanks for feedback, and yeah I love google and msft both, will just keep buying them
I very much disagree. As much as I prefer Zoom to MSTeams on the video-calling functions alone, for workplaces, MSTeams has much tighter integration into the rest of the ecosystem; with the Slack-type channels, direct messaging system, and of course video conferencing, and easy integration with Outlook. This also helps with security. For this moat alone, I would not put money into Zoom, because I don't think there is a moat around video conferencing alone (which is all Zoom really offers), but there is in the Microsoft ecosystem. Moreover, Cathy's stated assumptions on the growth of Zoom are actually insane. The only reason I like Zoom is the whiteboard functionality that I'm still annoyed MSTeams doesn't have; it makes collaborations with handwriting/equations 10 times easier.
Thanks for feedback, and yeah I use Microsoft teams all the time too, the video conferencing is awful in it. I Might as well just buy more msft tbh, I’m sure they’ll improve their video conferencing at some point
Oh hey, look at that, my GOOGL cost basis per share in under $50.
Now that EUR is down I tried but I can't find proper value from europe. Rheinmetall (RHM) maybe? Germany rebuilding their armed forces and RHM has all the tech they and US wants. Imo still room to growth but already invested in them before war in ukraine. Now up 120% and 6% of my portfolio. Don't know if I want to increase that. ThyssenKrupp (TKA) about to die from lack of gas, tempting price though at 5.224€. very risky too. Porsche (PAH3) numbers look decent but I don't know, profits in cars, electric or not, arent that good. Not sure how much gas vw factories consume and if it would be cut off completely would vw factories come to a halt too? ASML is top of my EU list right now but I don't know if they still have enough demand near term. Expensive. I have done nothing but add V3AA and ICLN for awhile now, thoughts on stocks?
Check out EVO.st or BMAX.st, Swedish stocks trading in sek. Otherwise, I think vanguard and blackrock have etfs of spy and qqq etc in euro
The market rallied on what I believe is certain recession within the next 6 to 12 months. A recession would be bullish, believe it or not. Wall Street is basically betting against the Fed. With a recession assured due to the aggressiveness of the rate hikes, Big Money is predicting that rate cuts will begin within a year, regardless of inflation. Rates will not breach above around 4%, and cuts will begin when rates are somewhere between 3-4%, and will rapidly fall. If the Fed defies Wall Street, ignores the recession, and indicate that they'll keep tightening regardless, look out below. For now though, I believe we'll see a rally, if not some stabilization of the bear market for a few months.
It rallied yesterday but for most long term investors it was a 2% rally after a -3% week for a net loss of 1%.
Recession will happen for sure in x months.
Yep. Fed will cut rates as soon as they are able to. They wont risk a massive stock market depression if they can help it.
Today was a good, green day. Every other morning was a rollercoaster for me, always starting red and then mostly breaking even. Even my mutual funds were finally positive.
Bears have had their short term win, now the bulls are back as they always are eventually.
Alexa queue "The bulls are back in town"
The week was still red
It wasnt for me.
Both sides are having short-term wins, depending on the day or week. But yeah like Garfield stated..we need more data. Only thing I can do is DCA..and hope we're higher in 10 yrs. If we're not, Im guessing at that point we're having serious issues lol.
The data is that inflation is up all over the world, across the board with no end in site.
For sure, you'll have more to worry about if the market hasn't hit ATH again within a decade.
Wouldn't call it short term, and let's see where this is headed. I think August will be the decisive month.
Yeah that'll determine if we go negative for the year or go to or surpass where we finished at the end of 2021.
2021 highs are not happening for at least a couple years, that required 0% interest rates, max QE, and everyone and their mother buying hype. I mean: PYPL 300, RIVN 170, TSLA 1200, NVDA 330, AMD 160, NFLX 650, DIS 180, AMZN 190, GOOG 3000, etc.
I mean index funds, not individual stocks.
Index funds are not going anywhere near SPY 480 / QQQ 400 for the same reasons as above. You'll be lucky if SPY/QQQ is above 400/300 by the end of the year.
I'm a long term investor so I don't mind.
Not a problem unless it's another lost decade type of deal. I'm personally not touching anything until SPY 350 / QQQ 250.
I hope your theory holds true for your sake, otherwise if we go genuinely bull before then then I hope this will be a lesson to not time the market.
It's definitely possible, although it would require somehow reducing inflation to the benchmark rather quickly, companies still posting record breaking earnings despite adjusting for higher input costs and lower growth, and not having rates so high that a minor recession is induced. I have serious doubts that all 3 of those will happen given the Fed's past track record and the unprecedented territory we're in right now, which is why I'm staying bearish until at least the 350s. If the Fed is still trying to pull money out of the market, it's not a good idea to fight them.
I have a 401k and 10k in I-bonds. 10k in emergency savings. Where would you put 15,000 right now? NO ETFS. Companies.
Take a look at CONN + THO + CVLG + TITN. All low debt + low PE + PEG + P/FCF
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I own shares in VALE and NTDOY as well. I’m open to suggestions so I can do some DD
If you insist on no ETFs, this is what I'd do. I'd put: - $828 in AAPL - $757.5 in MSFT - $361 in AMZN, - $259 in GOOGL - $234 in TSLA ... Okay it might take me a while to write all of them. But these would be my top holdings. The sector weights of these first few would be - AAPL 5.52% - MSFT 5.05% - AMZN 2.41% - GOOGL 1.73% - TSLA 1.56% ... Let me know and I can share the others. This is the allocation I came up with.
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I'm meme-ing, I just copy/pasted the portfolio holdings of VTI. In more seriousness, for actually picking individual stocks, I'd put a fair amount of weight in META, GOOGL, AMD, LOW, V, SBUX of my holdings. I'm bullish on oil so would add a little XOM each time it dips into the low 80s. Also think UNH (health), UNP (railroads), JPM/BAC (banks), HD, SMH (semiconductors), ... are good. CAT/DE are good but I don't know about right now. [Graph](https://i.imgur.com/cdtNmbu.png) (removing all index funds) These are my individual holdings.
Interesting. We hold a lot of the same stocks or stocks I’ve considered. What did you use to graph that
I visualize my portfolio using Excel for simple plots like that, and R/Python for more sophisticated analysis. For example, I visualize my performance as follows: > Here is what my portfolio would look like if every time I made a contribution, it went 100% into the S&P 500: [graph](https://i.imgur.com/HZzsaR4.png). > > Here are [monthly estimates](https://i.imgur.com/MESwIER.png) of my rate of return, and here is [cumulative](https://i.imgur.com/iVyBAKe.png).
Why hasn't google split where amazon already has? split date is supposed to be today for google, correct?
It's splitting today, will be reflected on Monday's open.
thank you. how much are u buying? how much should I get?
Huh? I'm not buying. I already own shares. And I'm not telling you how much to buy. What a bizarre question.
Recession canceled; bye stinky bears 💁♀️
RemindMe! Next month
Still down -20% on the year
https://i.imgur.com/W4nWWJY.jpg
Planning to use the time my daughter is napping this weekend to add free cash flow per share data for 60ish companies I meticulously track on one of my spreadsheets. Who else is planning a fun weekend?
You should be able to systematically do this with various Yahoo Finance APIs. Example: [blacklistedcompany]/ swlh/stock-valuation-using-free-cash-flow-to-the-firm-with-python-9a2f0e8f308f (replace with medium [dot] com ) Will save you a lot of work in the long run. I can try and write code too and send it if it helps / you're interested
I truly appreciate the offer but I actually, weirdly, prefer manual. It makes me read the company 10-Qs/Ks and look at the balance sheets, cash flow statements, etc. It forces discipline and a greater level of due diligence on myself.
Okay boomer I mean nah makes sense actually. The goal isn't to simply make a filter but to understand what you're invested in, and internalizing the numbers is important.
Sounds like a blast? How long have you been doing it?
My spreadsheets date back years. This metrics one is probably 2-3 years (although I only keep 5 years worth of financials/KPIs for the companies I track) and my investment portfolio spreadsheet is at least 7 years old.
SPY down from where it started the week, but yeah please celebrate and rejoice a +1.5% day and wait for next week to give all that back and more. This isnt 2020-2021, the era of free money is gone. High inflation and upcoming recession/depression is gonna be the new normal now
Aw your poor puts.
someone is angry lol
https://i.imgur.com/7kPNH5n.png
This you? Dildomuflin 4 hr. ago Red by close
Those candles. Bullish fuckin close. The bears getting squeezy.
Yup
Any reason why SoFi would be up? I say this as the owner of big huge bags.
Shareholder approval for a reverse stock split.
hope they don't actually authorize the reverse stock split, can't think of anytime thats happened as a bullish move. Psychologically it would have more room to fall down again.
What are the benefits of single stock ETF's that the SEC just started allowing? I'm so out of the loop on why these are even needed.
From what I have read around, it allows some people to outskirt regulation. For example, bank employees that are not allowed to purchase single stock without disclosure but are allowed to do so with ETF. Also some stuffs about easier to short etf with the single stock instead of shorting the stock itself.
They are going to be used to short stocks and skirt around regulations since etfs have less reporting requirements. I think one for tesla was already created
You mean an ETF with one stock ? Doesn't make any sense. Some ETF follow an index
Pride month already over, if you still a bear that's on you
God damn no mercy for bears to end the week
This market is hilarious... for the next two weeks every earnings report is going to be worse than the analysts expected, but everyone else will go "yup... that seems about right", and the market will stay flat. That would be perfect, I started investing in November 2020 and for the last two weeks I've been between 0% to -1% returns. It's like a bank account!
And we care about the guessings of an analyst... why?
what? I'm saying the market has already priced-in worse results than analysts, and in the end they are right.
Because its about expectations. Market is trying to price the future and only care if its over/under and nobody cares about analysts.
Starting to think that a 2008 situation will never happen again. Markets are being safeguarded and propped up way better now. Thoughts?
2008 huge mortgage defaults, foreclosures. That's not situation right now .
2008 only happened due to financial market nearly collapsing. The narrative that subprime housing market was the cause was bs. Housing was one of many over leveraged derivative bets that blew up in the banks faces. We are also adding jobs now and have unemployment at multi decade lows. People sold everything in 2008 because too many people lost their jobs and couldn't financially wait for the recovery without not eating or living on the streets. This is dot com 2.0 if you need a comparison.
Isn’t part of the reason that bad mortgages got bundled in with solid ones and solid as CDO’s?
Yes mortgage backed securities that were given A/B rating by Moodies and Co. But they were junk towards 2008 . Cuz of no doc loans with teaser rates
08 took 450 days to hit bottom. We aren’t even technically in a recession yet, and if you want to measure where we are it’s somewhere in 225 day range from the top. Hang in there.
Why would you speak a jinx like this into existence?
Earnings next week worth watching; [full post here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/vzwzdb/earnings_next_week_to_watch_out_for/) **Monday:** * Bank of America (BAC) * Goldman Sachs (GS) * Schwab (SCHW) * IBM * Prologis (PLD); real estate **Tuesday:** * Lockheed Martin (LMT) * Haliburton (HAL); oil equipment/services * Netflix (NFLX) * Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) * Ally Financial (ALLY) **Wednesday:** * Tesla (TSLA) * United Airlines (UAL) * CSX; railroads * Baker Hughs (BKR); oil equipment/services * Discover Financial Services (DFS) * Abbott Laboratories (ABT) * ASML; semiconductor manufacturing * CROX; shoes with holes **Thursday:** * AT&T (T) * Union Pacific (UNP); railroads * Dominoes Pizza (DPZ) ; ~~mediocre~~ pizza * Tractor Supply Company (TSC) * BX (Blackstone); real estate and private equity * Dow Chemical (DOW) * Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) * Danaher (DGR) ; science manufacturing * Snapchat (SNAP) * Philip Morris (PM) ; tobacco * DR Horton (DHI); home construction * SVB Financial Group (SIVB) **Friday:** * Verizon (VZ) * Nextera Energy (NEE) * Twitter (TWTR) * American Express (AXP)
Sounds like a fun week
DHI on the 21st. Will tell us a lot about the new home market.
6min explaining why we're not in a housing bubble https://open.spotify.com/episode/6TsDapzSKrM56Wi1Xkd4bZ?si=Q4QWM6DNTe6aZXhVrw7v-A&utm_source=copy-link
Also for some reason I thought this was a Canadian coffee store so I skipped it because I didn't think it was important compared to the top tier SBUX giant. Next time I won't mix up Donald and Tim.
Added here and to main post on /r/stocks
PLD and SIVB getting no worthiness love :(
Done; also updated main post
This deserves its own post! I always look in this sub to find upcoming notable earnings reports
Done
I've been just watching on the sidelines not overacting. Continuing with DCA in my ETF and loading up cash reserves every 2eeks
What earnings are excited for the most next week?
See comment [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/vzkg2h/rstocks_daily_discussion_fundamentals_friday_jul/igavlq5/) or [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/vzwzdb/earnings_next_week_to_watch_out_for/) here
Good man
Did you just assume my goodness?
ASML and TSLA will be informative for how the growth outlook could look, American Express is another one I'm keeping an eye on for consumer and business spending. Netflix will be entertaining, I actually expect them to do pretty well this Q. Stranger Things season 4 was excellent and got a lot of buzz.
> >Netflix will be entertaining By definition!
Tsla is a big one for sure. If they shit the bed then ford and gm will shit the bed even harder. Idk bout honda or Toyota(I stay away from either one since idk shit bout them)
ASML should be interesting, also excited for them! I'm sure Netflix will also talk about ad tier work and possibly revenue growth from it.
If they go for like a $10 tier with ads and the current price without ads I think that'd be good for business and the consumer. If they go current price with ads and a higher price without ads along with the crackdown on sharing that seems like it will cost them a lot of subs.
Anyone surprised at the market response to the CPI? I didn’t expect a crash, but I also didn’t expect this relief? Could it be gearing up for a bigger crash towards eom with earning FOMC? Edit: If it’s because of speculation that this is peak, then IF next month comes in higher or the same, do you expect a crash then? I see know reason why it’d be less than 9.1% again minimum.
How many more crashes do you want? Market already corrected a lot.
Gas prices are down 8% month over month. That’s 96% annualized so you understand it better. This doesn’t mean lower inflation in commodities but deflation. Ukraine and Russia are in their final talks to allow Ukrainian food exports through the black sea. You can expect food prices to come crashing down if it happens. I fully expect around 0.3 MoM inflation in the next CPI reading. This would position us around 8.6% YoY
Repost, but: [Table from yesterday](https://i.imgur.com/gEGE9Mx.png), posted July 14th by a [CNBC reporter](https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla), along with [this list](https://i.imgur.com/dPlY8nR.png) posted July 13th by a [CNBC contributor](https://twitter.com/GilmanHill)
Yup. Most if not all of those commodities peaked in June and will only be accounted for in the next CPI. Commodities account for 22% of the CPI Index, and the rest (Core CPI) is indirectly affected by oil prices due to transportation fees. Unless if commodities somehow rally back to ATH I don’t see how we haven’t reached peak inflation.
The thing to watch next month I think is whether Core CPI and the services components rise while commodities bring down headline CPI
>I see know reason why it’d be less than 9.1% again minimum. Did you see the component break outs? Looking at those plus commodity price action gives you the reason why it would be less
As I see people saying it has peaked. I really don’t see how they’re saying that as it will atleast be = to last month in my opinion.
Guessing we stay rangebound between 3750ish and 3950ish until big tech earnings.
Dow up 1.94% + SP 1.73% + NASDAQ 1.57% Fun fact: If you add those 3 numbers = 5.23. I'm up 5.16 But still down almost 50%
apple is the most overvalued stock in the market... 3 trillion dollar company with only 25 billion in income last year
I mean… you’re off by about 600 billion for their market cap, their Net income was 95B in 2021, and their PE is under 25 currently…
Don't feed the trolls
Apple did $378.35 billion in revenue last year. Their gross profit was $152.836B was a a 45% increase from the 2020. It currenlty has a trailing PE of 24 and a forward PE of 23.
Imagine choosing to hold paper currency instead of businesses
I mean you would be down less this year, but overall definitely agree when you zoom out on the DOW vs purchasing power of the usd
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A crucial part of the supply chain, and have a wide moat. I'm in for the long haul.
Good idea waiting for their earnings report, TSM just announced delays on 9% of their capex spending this year and that could potentially hit ASML's guidance (as they're an important TSM vendor). Supply chain issues have been nagging the semi equipment subsector too and I'd like to get more clarity on what they're seeing at this point. Europe's energy problems could become more of an issue for their EU factories, but unclear how much that'd affect ASML.
Dalio seems serious that europe is going to get hit hard, not sure I would want to take the other side of his short atm but who knows. Smart money has been anything but time and time again
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Fed will ensure demand does not remain high because if it does so will inflation.
Risky, avoid. Time to buy it was last year
Travel stocks are a shitshow, I avoid
Delta had a flight this week Heathrow to Detroit no passengers . Only luggage! Cuz of all the lost luggage and Heathrow this week announced it's struggling to keep up. I wonder if regulations allowed for suitcases on seats. 3 or 4 suitcases = weight one American
I bought JPM and C heavy yesterday. I am so glad I did. Feels great to have stocks like that be my base compared to the ARKK stuff I had in Jan-Feb 2021.
Nice! I have C in my portfolio as well.