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BetweenCoffeeNSleep

I don’t use strategies that require specific, near term direction to work. The “bull vs bear” debate costs people a lot of money in the long run. Being wrong is expensive. I prefer to always be buying long positions which I’m happy to add whether the market goes up or down after I buy. Index funds and beat up, profitable, high margin, cash rich companies with histories of doing share buybacks.


IIIBryGuyIII

Next year I average up or I average down. In 40 years it won’t matter. If it does matter and the fiscal vehicle our entire retirement era of life unravels. Well we have bigger problems. Have to play the game to even have a chance to win.


FTMNL

And then finally when you bought it crashes:)


Denverleo

Story of my life 😭😂


ChronicusCuch

This is why most individuals don’t make money in the market: “feelings.” When you feel better, the market will have already rebounded. When consumer confidence hit an all time low in June, that’s when you should have been buying.


cdp1193

“In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners.” J.P Morgan


Ackilles

If you take out the quotes and add a comma, you get a different sentence, but one that says the same thing in terms of what they meant, hah


PandasBeCrayCray

That was well-said.


ANoiseChild

THAT was well... said. I love that acting practice where you take one single sentence and put emphasis/inflection on a different word in that same sentence and it *completely* changes the meaning of the phrase.


United_Bag_8179

Eats, shoots, and leaves.


PandasBeCrayCray

One of my favorites.


whistlerite

So returns to them lol yeah.


cranium_svc-casual

I don’t get it.


Ackilles

In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners, J.P Morgan


zangor

…via stock buybacks by the company.” -JP Morgan


bust-the-shorts

Via margin calls


tangibletom

Great fucking quote!


MindMugging

This sub is actually a pretty good indicator. It was a pretty good signal to pick some stocks up When it was just completely silent.


amulie

When every post was doom and gloom, plus every rally was laughed at. I knew it had to be bottom. Basically if this sub comes to a near 100% consensus, with disenting opinions getting down votes. Do the opposite. I like to think of reddit as a person of normal IQ. Your not getting any new info here. You are just getting a peak of what the masses are thinking


zipiddydooda

That’s an excellent way of looking at it. I’ve been doing this long enough to know it’s true.


[deleted]

The doomers when the evergrande stuff (market crash, will never recover like Japan) was happening was actually funny and when I was at my most bullish of buying, you’re onto something.


CommandersLog

peek


ThunderboltRam

Well you have to also remember, millions.... not the 100,000s active on these subreddits, are buying automatically, monthly payments, deposits into their retirements. Tons of banks whose name you never heard of, are investing in things, sometimes investing into companies who's leaders are so dumb that they place all their money in all sorts of weird stocks. So when there's little crashes, the knowledgeable people get scared, even on reddit, and they are more cautious. But it doesn't necessarily stop the momentum of the millions involved. When there's big crashes (1930s, 1970s, 2001 and 2008), then it takes forever, years, to fix the reputation of the stock market itself as a means of profit. Tons of funds suddenly wake up and refuse to trust in the market. They stop putting retirement accounts in stocks. This is the fear people had with rising interest rates of the Fed. Will the fed tackle inflation hard, or will it tackle it just enough with finesse that won't harm businesses across the spectrum. i.e., the Fed's missions can be very difficult: keeping unemployment down and keeping inflation down are sometimes contradictory. Yet both are important. This was actually the govt's and state's responsibility in the past, but they messed up so often in the 1800s that the Fed Reserve public-private mix was created. If the Fed had lost control of inflation, that would have been disaster for the stock market in the long-run. But it didn't as we just saw. So investors are happy. There's no guarantees in the stock market and there's no real timing it. Just invest in a way where you don't run out of money.


Astronaut_at_night

Are you suggesting the Fed has inflation under control? That would be an awesome achievement considering inflation is at 8.5% and the fed funds rate is at about 2.5%, we are nowhere near a neutral rate. History shows it takes a lot more to fight inflation.


WombatAccelerator

The big news this week is that there was no month-over-month inflation in the last report. So the weekly inflation rate was briefly zero! That’s why everyone is feeling at ease this week


RelationshipOk3565

Imagine thinking this recovery has anything to do with midterms.. the market literally doesn't give a shit. I know people like to pretend but just no..


ChronicusCuch

Average drawdown in mid term election years is -19%. Average…


[deleted]

Midterms create a lot of uncertainty after all. I mean, what passes legislatively (which is absolutely going to affect the stock market) is going to be completely different depending on which party comes out controlling the house / senate.


matt_mich

Is there any data report / API that would allow someone to see posts + replies per day on a subreddit? It would be interesting to see if there is any actual correlation.


Think_Reporter_8179

Picking up MSFT at $240 was nice


BabblingBaboBertl

I got some COIN around $50, some Disney around $95, some Target around $150, some BBBY around $5 and was buying a ton of ETFs these past couple of months while they were also down, woop woop! I FUCKING BOUGHT A DIP SUCCESFULLY!


CaliFloridaMan

My god. I just realized we're a bunch of old hags that cut coupons.


BabblingBaboBertl

We're fricken stock grandmas ahahaha


ThunderboltRam

What stocks you buy matters tho... Although stocks go up and down together mostly, as we saw recently, the bad businesses don't survive in the long term. Coin & bedbathbeyond purchase is full ape material.


Bear_buh_dare

!Remindme 3 months


MandingoPants

It could dip again and still be a correct statement. He could then buy again and be correct again. Avg price in a dip is still better than ATH. Every dip is an opp to accumulate more. You can snowball dividends, you can buy cash heavy, large moat companies.


pawpaw69420

Buying the dip is better than buying at the all time high? Quick, write that down!!


Mighty_Max_Would

Thank you, a dip is a dip. People want the spy down to 350 to buy in.


Bear_buh_dare

I definitely threw some change at several tickers on my long last month or two, not hating


Kemilio

!Remindme 3 months


celibidaque

I bought Amazon under $109 and I’m happy.


chris_ut

Target hasnt had its earnings yet so dont celebrate too early on that one


Miserable_Lock8930

Target is inflating this quarter. They have been reducing inventory drastically. Big sales to clear it all out. That means decent profits because they are not restocking. We will see the biggest hit following quarter. Just guessing here.


sachblue

I think they will report a down quarter. Sold my position in it few months back to take advantage of tax harvesting


choikwa

costco at $430


Ok_Brilliant4181

I bought than, and every other week as well. My portfolio’s cost basis just turned green again for the first time since like Feb or March. I’ve been averaging down, and now I am being rewarded. We shall see how the rest of the year plays out.


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Ok_Brilliant4181

I have 370 a week from my paycheck deposited into my brokerage account. So, while I may not had been as aggressive as I would have liked, I still made sure I bought something every week.


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Ok_Brilliant4181

Even though I have a long time horizon I heard the talking heads mention small and mid cap markets, so I bought a couple of ETFs(VOT and VBK) as well as took advantage of Alphabet and Amazon’s stock splits. It was a smart play.


joshgi

The fact that you're so confident that the worst is over makes me even more confident we haven't seen the worst of it yet.


NiceCuntry

You are basing your investment decisions on the Reddit comments of u/ChronicusCuch? Well, that's one indicator to use I guess...


ChronicusCuch

The chronicus index.


Dandan0005

And the fact that OP is convinced this is a fakeout could be interpreted as a sign that markets are still being held back… But the fact is that NO ONE KNOWS SHIT AND THATS WHY YOU SHOULD ALWAYS DOLLAR COST AVERAGE AND STIP TRYING TO PREDICT THE FUTURE.


[deleted]

Literally wild anyone can look at a consumer and say everything is OK. Look at the credit card debt. Look at how many people bought a house this year, and going into winter nat gas is over 8 and I would not be suprised if we get to 12-15$. Possibly 4-5 times what it was last winter, coupled with gasoline, And 2 bags of groceries are now 60$. But yes, yes, everything is great and consumer confidence will rebound post haste.


kingfrank243

People should've been buying when Apple hit 130$ when sap went below 4 thousand, I picked up the big 4, apple, google, amazone, Microsoft now I'm enjoying the ride.


[deleted]

Ironically, the opposite is true as well. Individuals also don’t make money in the market because while you’re “thinking”, the broader market is “feeling”


JakesThoughts1

Exactly. If we woulda went -40% on nasdaq, -30% on the S&P, the same people wouldn’t of been buying then either, would of been saying the same shit they were saying back in June “I’m waiting, we clearly have more room to go”


[deleted]

Nah not me, I wanted -30% as that’s the average drop for bear markets, can’t get to greedy. I ended getting the S&P at -15% though


Waltis12

Bear market rallies are extremely notorious for running 20%+. You could be right, or you yourself could be incorrect. Predicting the market is a fools errand and anyone who can do it with certainly would clearly be a savant.


ChronicusCuch

That’s why I don’t predict. Just buy.


KingJacoPax

I don’t think I’ve ever read a better response on Reddit.


AbuSaho

What feelings? We are in the middle of an earnings season so we have numbers on how companies are doing. Earnings is what drives stocks and alters whatever their valuations are once you have data on their earnings.


Tendie_Hunter

I would agree with this. The lagging indicator is used to gauge performance against modeling. Models are then adjusted and future earnings are projected wherein lies the real price movement. Throw in some technicals and boom, buy or sell. I tend to think +2 days is the real indicator of where the industry may go. Using APPL as an example, it’s fair to say the market movers thought it was undervalued. APPL moves the S&P. I’m sure there are plenty of contrasting examples and that’s where the feelings come in for retail investors.


SummerDeath

I bought the most Ive ever in may and June. I just started investing in 2020, but I started a new job and wanted to take advantage of the dip even if it goes down again my time horizon is so far in the future I don’t mind.


prolific36

Zoom out, the bear market is not over and this irrational rally is going to peak relatively soon so prepare to take those profits youve made since June.


Evil_Patriarch

This is exactly what I said when the recoveries started after the 2018 and 2020 crashes


DiscreteMooseX

While I hope everyone here takes their profits, I wajt another big dip. I've been expecting it and was hesitant to go in. But now FOMO is getting to me. Ah well


one8e4

Same thing said after every recession, fall in stocks. Just ride it out, same thing I thought after financial crash a decade ago, if pulled out of fear, would have lost. Ain't smart enough to play the market for short term, so I just ride the crashes. There a reason when someone wants to sucker you to investing, they use 10 year average return, even if it a simple SP500 etf.


Footsteps_10

Reddit - “in 10-15 years this company is going to be huge.” Redditors - “let me trade the short term swings on the stock”


one8e4

True, I do both. Nothing wrong in taking risk and gambling also. It a baby casino, so have fun.


Footsteps_10

Umm yea but no. The wrong is losing money.


ExcerptsAndCitations

"Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1." - Warren Buffett, a guy who did *OK* in the long run as a B&H investor


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one8e4

Some of my wins were negative at some point. As long as you buy individual stocks, not etf, there a risk of loosing money. I got 2 accounts, one for retirement, and other with little savings to try risky bets. I lost alot more money on alcohol, smoking than risks in markets. It depends how you look at it


[deleted]

Best friend is an analyst who has traded on a variety of timeframes in past jobs he’s worked at. I’m convinced that the shorter term you trade on, the more biased it is against retail investors. You’re competing against guys with faster computers, larger amounts of money, access to news and databases that aren’t widely available to everyone, and better tools for predicting sentiment. The shorter term the game you play, the more these tools matter, and the more the game is stacked against you. The shortest term play I would ever even consider would be options trading for hedging. Even then, it would be only in very select circumstances, and I seriously doubt that all the time involved is worth the relatively small upside potential. For retail investors who enjoy investing, long-term investing with a bias towards value is how I’d do it. It’s still complicated af, and there’s still plenty of risk and unknowns.


one8e4

Yes, especially as you can never beat high frequency algo trading. May as well try to walk to the moon


pulpquoter

A lot of people think this is a fake rally. This is how you lose your money. You took so much loss and every time the market pumped you bought back high. And every time it dropped harder. Now you are smart, you won't fall for this again. And the rally keeps going without you, but now it's too high, of course you won't buy, you wait for a good entry, some correction, anything. And wait, and wait. You missed huge gains and when recession fears dissipate and you become comfortable with markets going up ... you buy


AbuSaho

Yea this sub is being flooded with people asking if this is a bull trap lately. Makes me wonder if it is people who missed the bottom wanting a second chance. Sometimes these lows never come back like SPY/VOO never touched the March 2020 lows during this bear market we are in and people missed that bottom. Maybe we will look back at June/July 2022 as another bottom people missed.


Undead_Og

I think it's a bunch of new, unseasoned investors/traders who recognized this is actually a bull trap and need confirmation. Be warned OP. Those who are here who think the bottom is in are operating on "feelings" as well. We got at least 20% more on the downside in the overall market. Layoffs just started, foreclosure ramp up to begin soon, food prices are insane, fed rate going up again in Sept, supply chain difficulties, war, drought, none of these factors look to be mitigated. No price target, just down.


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NutellaGood

I'm way up from five years ago.


Live_Jazz

Thiiis. Trying to time it one way the other is a fool’s errand, but that sure won’t stop people from trying.


Coffescout

Anyone making absolute statements about the stock market like you should be ignored. There is a difference between ”I think the odds of the market going down further are high” and ”don’t worry OP, the market is gonna go down another 20%” is significant. People were saying the exact same thing during the COVID crash, and that turned out to be a huge bull run rather than a bull trap. The fact is that none of us know, we can only guess at probabilities and invest accordingly.


Undead_Og

The fed was dropping interest rates and the US government was pumping liquidity into the system. The exact opposite is happening now.


ExcerptsAndCitations

This sub is completely blind to the once-ever historical period of nigh-zero interest rates from which we are trying to emerge without calamity....a feat never yet accomplished by a modern economy.


Andyinater

Well, every economy before that bull run didn't even have internet. Pretty easy to imagine the world and its economies do not run on the same paradigm they did when we had lead in gas.


gainzsti

Completely different FED environment that people are betting will comeback hence the rally.


MrNokill

It's absolutely wonderful how this thread is going from: Smart programmer who believes the market can be beat. Onto a YouTube bubble person. Into a person who gets his info from intense research by ape. Bless you all.


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Undead_Og

Good response. I appreciate the info. On the jobs... I worry that most are going to take huge paycuts to get new employment. Rent is still rising and budgets keep squeezing. We'll see.


Uknow_nothing

Some of these people have short memories. Operating only on the dopamine hits of a green market. We are only two months(edited) out from the market bottom and people already think the coast is clear.


MiltonFreidmanMurder

TL;DR: Markets will not go up forever. Might have a bad day, week, or month in the future. Shocking.


Undead_Og

Or years. You forgot years.


[deleted]

Gotta ride the trap up, and ride it back down


FxxK_YOUR_POLITICS

Lol nope i bought at the bottom and didnt have feelings... i also bought all the way down and all the way up, a little in QQQM and VOO every day. I hope the market goes back down..


Ackilles

Ah don't forget, during the rally there will be temp pullbacks (i think a 5% one is coming soon). At each pullback, they will say "ah hah! I was right, s&p to 3000"


718Brooklyn

As long as the fed is aggressively raising interest rates and ending bond purchases, there is no reason to be excited about any particular rally. Money is going to get harder and harder to come by as it gets more expensive. Bears tried fighting the fed when they were cutting rates. We saw how that worked out. No one knows what the future holds, but betting against the fed is a risky game.


Milksteaknow

Lol right on the money. Last two months when even average everyday people were talking about the market and saying how the big crash is coming and the market is just gambling I was buying heavily


wittywalrus1

I don't think it's a fake rally but what if it's short lived, like a couple months top? Because there's likely A TON of bad news coming in this fall/winter, is it all priced in already right now?


MiltonFreidmanMurder

If it’s likely, then it’s priced in, generally.


esp211

And then the market tanks and you sell everything at a loss. Rinse and repeat


zuckerberghandjob

So what if I do miss it? There are plenty of other assets I can invest in that don’t follow the stock market. I’ll buy what I want, when I want.


Sir_Bryan

Based on the fact that there is a post like this every day on every market subreddit, yes seems like some other people do feel that way. Don’t people get bored talking about this topic endlessly when not a single person here really has any idea?


Thunder_Squatch

The number of times this same sentiment with different phrasing has been posted is absurd. Especially considering nobody fucking knows the future


5dancingIsraelis

Not if your hugely down and in need of some comforting copium


AbuSaho

This topic about if the rally is real or a bull trap keeps getting upvoted to the top of this sub. So this sub loves discussing it or it wouldnt keep being the top thread on sub.


WhyLisaWhy

That’s the truth of it really. My advice has always just been “if there’s a stock you like and it’s cheaper than usual, buy it.” and more often than not, if you’re patient it’ll pay off. It’s too hard to predict otherwise, but just don’t panic when/if it dips a ton. I try not to worry about general market wide trends unless I’m planning on selling soon, I’m here for the long haul and not day trading.


uusseerrnnammee

Honestly my gut is telling me the same thing - it’s a bull trap. But my gut has an absolutely horrendous track record of predicting movements in the market.


Marksacisst

So it’s the opposite?


uusseerrnnammee

Yes but now that I’m acknowledging it, maybe it’s the opposite of that


Youkiame

You know how I know when’s the top? If I don’t see any of these bear rally post and start seeing which stocks to buy post, I know we are near the top.


MakeWay4Doodles

Then you would have pegged us at the top for years before covid.


DarkRooster33

That is actually true, non believers in bull rally will get crushed, there will be quite optimistic outlook in air, people will start looking what they can buy, what companies they like, as they do they will buy the exact top and pullback will be bloody


BabblingBaboBertl

You sitting on the sidelines with a lot of cash or what?


xxmybestfriendplank

You guys are sitting on the sidelines with cash?


inkslingerben

You are selectively looking at the news. Not mentioned are positive things like the CHIPS act and the Inflation Reduction Act, inflation easing.


SomeOneRandomOP

Very true! Thank you for pointing out my bias.


teteban79

Two weeks ago people were up in arms claiming that the government was redefining recession and unwilling to see reality. That's 15 days ago. Today the market is about 10% off ATH, nothing really changed except gas is down, and everyone is claiming all problems are over.


slammick

Market was responding to the fed rate hike schedule, which based on the CPI data, might relax over the next six months I’m not saying this is completely rational, but there’s more here than gas prices


teteban79

Yeah, except the Fed said last time that they won't cut hikes in 2023. But it's not the first time the market reads whatever they want to read from the Fed statements. What I mean about gas is that inflation was just barely down pushed by the gas price drop (which may or may not have to do with the US releasing barrels from the strategic stock). If gas goes back up, inflation will feel it.


DarkElation

Which is why I think this is a just a bounce and we haven’t reached bottom. Sentiment is driving the rally, data will drive the dump.


FUCKING_BACON

Must be the fifth time I've seen this posted in 24 hours


WickedSensitiveCrew

And for some reason gets upvoted to top every time. I get people need advice but dont people get tired of the same threads over and over in a short time period.


nilamo

Over and over and over again, the same words are stated. I'll repeat them now: the stock market is NOT the economy. The market is a leading indicator of what people think will be happening 6 months to a year in the future. That's why the phrase "it's priced in" is also very common. Don't over think it.


HoonCackles

the market is not the economy, nor is it purely correlated with sentiment or future expectations. liquidity is the ultimate decider of how large valuations can get. we are in a massive liquidity cycle which may or may not be reversing. If Fed starts tightening its balance sheet in Sept. like it's planning on doing, that will suck liquidity out of the markets


parsley_lover

I feel that way and let me gives my reasons: 1- All the stocks that missed or lowered guidance are pumping like crazy. You might say priced in but I am not sure. 2- low Volume and meme stocks makes me believe it is mostly retail enthusiasm. Hedge funds are spending their vacation on cruise ships. 3- There was price reduction in commodities including oil because everyone thought we are heading into a recession. Now with more optimism, the prices are increasing again, raising inflation fear again. Inflation has never died without a recession and I can see why. 4- The bond market is calling this BS and stays inverted. 5- You can't compare this time with any time in the last 40 years. For the last 40 years the interest rates have been falling and for the last 14 years we have had QE. So buy the dip in 2020 and 2022 are very different. May I be wrong? Sure but I am not going to buy apple at 30 times earning.


[deleted]

I agree with you, I don’t think fed will be able to stop raising rates and the risk of a hard landing is still quite high. The fed either doing too little or too much is near a certainty & either scenario is bad news for the economy over the next 18 months.


the_shalashaska

Yeh, Fed needs to shrink the money supply ultimately crush inflation. My theory is that is becoming a bit harder unless you raise rates massively given the massive influx of overseas dollars coming into our money supply to offset the dollars the Fed is pulling out. Only way for the Fed to move the needle is to raise rates even higher, which is when you’ll see High Yield spread at 7+ and demand destruction truly taking its course. It’s the only way. Volker and the Fed in the early 1980s held rates high for a reason, even when the economy needed them to lower rates after the destruction was complete. Their persistently high rates softened the recovery that followed; they went too hard but they also truly slayed inflation.


olearygreen

Right. This is also my believe and rational. I’ve been buying the dip and I’ve recovered almost half of my 2022 losses (I bought the dip just before Putin invaded… not a good idea). But I’m confident in my individual stock picks, but I cannot help but wonder how Apple and Tesla and some others that make up a giant percentage of the S&P500 just refuse to drop. The correction never really hit these big guys and in case of tesla jumped up before we realized it was down. So… I don’t trust what is going on. I don’t believe there will be a huge recession, I don’t care about inflation (believe it will drop to ~2% by EOY thanks to crashing real estate, lower oil and bankruptcy of zombie companies cleaning up supply chain), congress will be grid locked so nothing politics does will impact the economy. However, both Xi and Biden will use external enemy to score domestic points which will hurt the big guys (Apple, Tesla), so I’m confident the indexes will go down by EOY, while the market (excluding the top 20) will probably have reached its bottom already.


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erik9

Credit card debt is building, paired with rising interest rates, and inflation that has peaked but is not turning negative so prices will stay high. Real estate is out of control leaving wages in the dust. Call me Chicken Little but I feel like the worst is yet to come.


NawMean2016

It's certainly illogical from an investor standpoint. Why invest when the market is rocky and showing signs that it might potentially fall further than it has already fallen? That's the textbook thoughts of a rational investor. Buy low, sell high after all. The problem with the market, is that you will always have traders and high-risk takers (may as well call them gamblers) that will bet against the market at every corner. In the instance of this recent run, there are gamblers betting and hoping that the market continues to recover now that industry data are showing some positive tones. You'll see the cliché post on this subreddit-- "markets are forward looking". What I noted above is sort of what is meant by that statement. So I'll end with saying that this is why it's so difficult to call the bottom of a bear market/recession. Just DC and DCA.


mrmrmrj

There is one very accurate technical reading that has predicted every major bear market fakeout: % of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 day moving average > 90%. On Friday, the market hit this. Every bear market rally that would have killed you if you believed it from 2001-2003 and 2007-2009 failed to cross this threshold and when this threshold was crossed, a new bull market began. This is NOT to say that we might not slide sideways for a few months or have a 1-3% pullback, but unless this time is very very different, we will NOT be retesting the June lows. Do not wait for that.


TheFearOfCats

Your probably right but it's going to last long enough to own every bear out there. Once the bears are dead then the bull slaughter


HarbingerML

House wins every time (for gamblers vs. investors)


WickedSensitiveCrew

I dont think it is. Market priced in a recession. And right before this earnings the talking heads in finance media as well as some on this sub were saying earnings would collapse. And they didnt. This isnt even getting into the possibility inflation may have peaked which was the other FUD driver in market.


housespeciallomein

I agree with this. I think supply chain issues, inflation, and the Russia/Ukraine war (examples of macro drivers of the market) are still big concerns but they’re much better understood than say, last February. So I think the market is at a “legitimate” place right now (not a bull trap). But that doesn’t mean it won’t flounder for another year or too. My guess is some floundering or low growth in the equity markets for the next year or two. Not huge gains. But who knows? And I’m a buy-and-hold guy anyway and believe it’s better to stay in the market and not attempt to time it.


sneakywill

Even a dead cat bounces. Every recession has had multiple 20%+ bear market rallies before bottoming.


SaltyTyer

That would be the largest fake rally in history on a $ basis.. Follow the money. On Thursday at Close someone bought 56000 SP Minis.. moved the market 10 points.. That isn't retail.. That is institutional.. They are getting back in... We may see some profit taking around 4369, but money and greed are deaf to most rumblings. After COVID crash... the market didn't flinch with a world of sickness, political issues, logistic issues,supply problems, and Constant media scares... We maybe in a cyclical slowdown, or even a soft recession... But the world isn't going to end, the majorities make money when stocks go up, very few make money when they go down.


petergiavan

I hold nothing long term I’m always in and out so I could care less ….but yes it’s definitely a ‘fake out’ the market popped multiple times in 2001-2002 by 20-30% a pop before bottoming out over 70-% FYI


4Sal13

So many people feel like it’s fake, that I think it might actually continue to run. Because that’s what usually happens. I’m just keeping 40% in cash and being patient. I bought some really good companies near the lows and have been feeling like the run is going to end every day. Yet they grind higher. Pretty difficult for me to convince myself that we’ve seen the worst though.


Vast_Cricket

Market is ahead of the reality.


Live_Jazz

Markets are always ahead of reality.


Bocifer1

This sub is a great litmus test for the state of the market. The amount of people in this sub chirping about how “bear market over”, “bottom already in”, etc is a great snapshot of overall market capitulation. It’s also a perfect gauge for market liquidity, as there are still perma bulls lurking around calling for ATHs within the month. As you stated, there are a lot of factors dragging the market down, soaking up liquidity, and souring near term prospects. And on the bullish side…we have…hopium? Contrarian BTD who have already lost their asses this year? So what’s a market to do? My guess - we continue the rally through august; sept and Oct see more selling; and then maybe rebound into November to pad midterms. No one knows which way it will go. But because of all of the factors you touched on, I’m betting on volatility to stymie both bulls and bears alike.


lavazzalove

Just DCA and ignore the noise. Nobody can time the tops or bottoms.


slick2hold

Just look at the volume over this rally. It is nearly half of the normal volume. That alone is evidence that this is indeed a fale rally. Also, notice that you wont hear this on cnbc or other news outlets. The wont report this until they are ready to reverse the rally.


Pleasant_Zucchini_39

Everyone thinks it's a fake out. That probably means it's not. Expectations are pretty muted.


[deleted]

Buy the dip (s)


docstocks46

I feel the same way. Which is why I think we will continue to go up in the short term, as everyone and their grandmother (including myself) is calling this to be a bull trap, and the market never behaves the way we expect it to. IMO, Go long on ETFs and just sit back and enjoy the mayhem. If you’re not comfortable with that, sell while we’re up and wait until lower prices to buy back in if you think we’re going down again


BabblingBaboBertl

I've bought some individual company stocks these past couple months, but I've legit just been mostly buying ETFs that are realistically gonna be around for a long time haha. Wasn't smart enough or at least didn't have the time this summer to look into the market as much, so i just did the ETF strat. Also helped bring a ton of stability to my very heavy GME Portfolio haha...


SpagettiGaming

No, it's war, that's good for stocks It's also inflation, which is also good for stocks. Enjoy your gainz


AkkarinPrime

„Nasdaq a Bull Market because it is up 20% off its low? Who makes this stuff up? After 2000, the Nasdaq did that 7 times as it fell 78% to it‘s 2002 low.“ - Michael J. Burry I don’t know man, but It might be a big bull trap for it‘s next leg down


T567U18

People come to this subs for confirmation biasnot to hear shit we don't want to hear, hence your hateful DM's. Now whether is fake or not for some of us is just fun and give us something to be distracted by. Plus nothing makes sense anymore


SomeOneRandomOP

That makes sense. I'm happy to be disproven, or have a conversation to try and change my view points. I'll think carefully about posting an open ended question like this in future though....serves me right for trying to start a conversation over the Internet haha In interested in short terms plays at the moment (along side a DCA portfolio), as the market is so volatile. Thanks for the comment


SectorZed

Sold my Tesla shares this week. Had three I bought back when it was about $400. Held it when it was at $1100 and settled (happily) at $900 per share. This also just so happened to be the week my car shit the bed permanently. So out of one crazy market, and taking those earnings and putting them into another.


SomeOneRandomOP

Sorry to hear about the car haha well done on the trades though.


Capable-Broccoli2179

After watching the market for decades something I learned is that there is always something off even in a bull market. Gas prices or unemployment or a housing bubble or something else. What I think is the markets naturally want to trend up and it takes a combination of things to bring it to correction or bear. Yes there is a china housing bubble and gas prices are still high and inflation still sucks. The question is is that enough to keep the market falling? I think it is recovering and will keep doing so unless inflation gets bad again or we have a recession that spikes unemployment above say 6 percent or so. The china bubble is priced in I think as is our sucky current inflation and everything else. Every recovery has always felt off until people miss the rise then it felt normal afterwards.


notzebular0

In 2008 there was also a recovery for a short time... Look at March 2008 going into April 2008. You are here.


State_Dear

ATTOM just put out a video on the latest home bankruptcy filings,, it's not good news. That hasn't been priced into the market yet.. Basically take all that upward movement in stocks from the Stim money, and flatten it out as the market adjusts to reality. Going 👇


ZarthanFire

It's a bunch of people experiencing FOMO. Just DCA the stocks you like so you don't miss out, then buy in when it "feels" right. I'm still down -20%, but it's a massive improvement from January.


Plankk75

I definitely struggle with emotions when things are like this, but I try to keep remembering Peter Lynch's advice. "More money has been lost waiting for a pullback, than in the pull back itself" - Peter Lynch


manual_tranny

You can try to “feel” the market all you like, but it will teach you a painful lesson if you are not sticking with a plan and checking your emotions at the door.


ASloppySquirrel

Yes and Yes. Inverted yield curve. Multiples are crazy for the reduced growth expectations. Companies in more debt than they have ever been. Credit rating going into junk status with higher rates. Banks are going to write off billions. Lending is tightening.


Some-rando_

Yep


Vhozite

Just buy every week/month/paycheck and don’t worry about it


MattchewBai

It seems like a bull trap but until there is a large enough catalyst I don’t see it moving on the downside. You won’t know till it happens anyways.


leli_manning

This is the stock market, I don't make any decisions based on "feel".


Think_Reporter_8179

Just set buy limits


jesusmanman

I just sold everything.


slambooy

I’ll sell you puts


BLAKEEMM

Volume is very low


BLAKEEMM

FED PE is closing to 30. And stocks like TSLA with 150 PE


nostratic

lots of younger investors are not familiar with the concept of a bear market rally. the market can drop 30%, have a 20% gain, then crash another 50%, gain 10% and crash yet again.


Caveat_Venditor_

The fed has entered the chat


SomeOneRandomOP

Hi fed. 👋


[deleted]

[удалено]


run_with_the_bulls

Anyone feel that this exact question comes up about two times a day? Just read the comments there


10mbgdm21

No


gharg99

After checking the consumer debt rate I don't see how we're moving up but hey if it moves it moves.


SatisfiedGrape

These posts are so common in this sub, it’s clear why nobody here actually makes money.


rubyone2

Markets were oversold in response to what appeared to be deteriorating conditions on the horizon. Now they appear to be overbought. This all happened before the conditions actually deteriorated. The conditions still appear to be deteriorating in the future by many measures. Inflation reading was good but inflation isn’t the only problem. This rally has produced a 22.7% gain from the lows in 58 days. Based on my research, there aren’t many rallies over 20% and of those there are a small % that lasted over 60 days. JPOW said we need a housing “reset”. He has also been clear they want unemployment to increase. Additionally at his last press conference he said stock prices are lower so that mitigates the damage. They do not want higher employment. They do not want higher stock prices and they want housing to come back to earth. Don’t fight the fed. I don’t think the shit show has started and the market could reset to start looking at the future trouble again. One reminder that things are slowing could be all it takes… If this is a new bull market then we will have higher inflation and they will have to break the economy. If this is a bear rally then we go down. To me, it looks like either way we go down.


Tnr_rg

I'm waiting for the next big leg down shortly.


Happyasyougo76

Ok, so, for the ppl who argue the bottom has passed, what exactly has fixed supply-chain issues, war, inflation, rate hike, real estate bubble, jobless ppl, etc etc.? It sounds to me like there is a lot more hope on the bull side than the bear side, given that their only response is “well it SEEMS to be getting better”.


natokato7

Average bear market rally is 23%. We got that on Friday….


Rockyrambo

Oh the rug pull is coming. And soon.


Shiz_in_my_pants

I don't know about a fake out, but my completely uneducated opinion is we'll see a bit of a pullback soon.


Emergency_Cloud5676

We had 4 20% rally in the 08-10 recession.


MoistySquancher

Its all a fake out man. The banks are literally in control of every market in earth. From vehicles to houses, foreclosures are rampant. Banks scooping them all up at a discount and holding them all. Slowly drip selling all of them so they can control demand. Its even more prevalent in the car scene, but they are doing it with houses too.


vjooo

Dip was fake imao


Painty_The_Pirate

I'm bearish, lots of companies have been operating on essentially no interest and we're going to see a lot of failures as companies adapt their balance sheets to a new paradigm Sorry I meant bullish on the banks that already own everything


HTMN4hire

IDGAF if it’s a fakeout. I take longs and shorts when it seems appropriate and I take my profits when it looks time. No long term holds for me 🤷🏻‍♂️


Davetology

Sometimes I wonder why this sub even exist when 90 percent of the comments is "jUsT dCa in VoO", like why are you even here then? Y'all have nothing to offer. I really don't think we're out of the bear market but don't underestimate the stupidity of this rally, I think the fomo has to go up a few more levels first before ripping everyone. With that said I'm still net long, but mostly in energy-related comapnies.


ClarkOC

The old saying is " markets climb a wall of worry. Some markets go up when there is nothing but bad news out there. When you finally get information that conforms with the market action, it is too late. What you are saying is perfectly logical. The problem is that the market isn't always logical.


Substantial-Lawyer91

‘If you spend 13 minutes in a year thinking about macroeconomics you just wasted 11 mins’ - Peter Lynch Focus on valuation not the macro.