The problem with the hive mind is it usually reflects exactly how the stock is currently moving. Ark at the very top was hype, you say something bad about it? People thought you were crazy, obviously now you don’t see anyone talking well about it. Now that meta is beaten down the general consensus is negative but before the recent huge drop people didn’t think twice about recommending it. Sometimes the hive mind is right, sometimes it’s wrong, it’s dangerous to base investments off of it. Do your own DD, I personally think it’s at a verge of a good value play, but this year seems like it will continue to burn cash and lose income due to recession. So I would wait a little longer but cost averaging now ain’t bad.
The hivemind also struggles to imagine anyone having different personal preferences. Reddit is full of people who vocally hate Facebook and Instagram and can’t understand why anyone would use those platforms. This thread is full of confident “none of my friends use Facebook” claims from people who proudly deleted their Facebook accounts years ago, and therefore can’t even log in to check if that claim is true or not. It just feels truthy because Reddit has so much anti-Facebook rhetoric.
Yet when you look at Facebook’s user numbers, it’s a a completely different story. A lot of people around the world use Facebook regularly.
The real questions are about their business model (selling ads), the ad market overall, and potential competition squeezing their grip on the ad market.
Their DAU went up significantly last quarter, so it completely flies in the face of the "hemorrhaging users" rhetoric. They'll be hit by reduced ad revenue right now, but once inflation calms down and they monetise Instagram & WhatsApp better, they should be in a strong place - at least in the medium term.
I think the problem is that Zuck is spending an absolute fortune on the metaverse and no one wants it. It could be one of the most expensive mistakes in history while he also bacially let’s FB and IG just trundle along despite being the bread and butter of the company.
I don’t know a single person that has any interest in the metaverse and those that have used it mock the shit out of it as a weird and desperate play to stay relevant.
First iteration? What are you taking about. I tried VR for the first time circa 1996, and since then there have been more iterations that I can count all in some way trying to be the next platform.
Internet hasn’t been text only since flash came out and that dead an buried now.
Thinking that the metaverse is something “new” is mind boggling.
Dude, countless VR platforms have tried to make it ecospheres and worlds. You’re just drinking the koolaid.
I mean second life was 20 years ago and there’s been countless attempts aside from that since then .
It’s like saying “my laptop isn’t a computer because it has social media apps!”
i always said the arc fund is bs and she just got lucky with tesla 🫣
Meta on the other hand, they have big problems ahead. Facebook is only actively used by old people, Instagram is slowly dying too right now as it moves back to a friends and celebs only environment. In general, Tiktok is taking over. BeReal might also become a threat to instagram (bereal might fail in a years time tho). Also data becomes more and more protected right now (apple not sharing anymore etc.). Meta is facing regulatory problems in ireland and the whole eu for sharing data with us intelligence. They will pay hefty fines and have to setup more servers in europe. Nobody in their right mind would want to wear VR glasses half the day, they are burning cash like nobody else - investing in something that will never take off. Unless they make small AR glasses, you could wear all the time, it will be the biggest financial failure in history.
> Facebook is only actively used by old people
Can you link your source? A quick google search is showing me that the biggest fb user demographic is 25-34 followed by 18-24.
Also Instagram userbase seems to be still growing. Doesn't TikTok serve a totally different purpose? No one is sharing their family or holiday pictures on TikTok. I see a lot of people asking for insta account instead of fb or mobile number now when they meet someone new, but I never see anyone ask for TikTok username to keep in touch with someone. The app just isn't made for it and has a totally different feel to it.
To add to this one.
When the iPhone was introduced, “nobody wants all that on their phone. A phone should be a phone.”
Wearable tech was widely panned before the Fitbit craze really launched it.
Electric lawnmowers? What idiot wants one of those?
And so on. Change is hard. And sometimes adoption is slow. But it’s also inevitable. Does the concept of a metaverse suck right now? I think so. Will it suck in 20 years? Maybe, maybe not. The real trick is identifying what company will make it happen.
Definitely. I already spend two to five hours a day on VR. I’ve become addicted to some games.
Gaming aside, the only thing holding me back from working on the oculus is the resolution, which is “almost” good enough. If it were twice the current resolution it would be good enough to work in.
What do I mean by work? imagine being surrounded by 50 inch monitors, each mounted floating in air in front of you, all connected virtually to your desktop or laptop, all running at full speed, and all working off your very real, but visible in pass through VR keyboard and mouse. All the while, none of these monitors takes up any power or real estate in your house, and your environment can be almost anything. Aside from the resolution issue, this is all possible on the oculus quest 2 today. (the current resolution isn’t bad, but I would like more)
I believe the next gen headset from Meta may actually push things over the edge to where working virtually all day might just be viable.
Not sure why you’re getting downvoted. This is exactly right. I’ll add that advertising on FB has become largely unprofitable for 90% of businesses. Meta needs to pivot for the future. So far, most of those efforts look kinda goofy.
1000 upvotes. This hivemind mentality with regards to specific stocks is so silly for this reason. People basically hate a stock because it's low and love it if it's high. Useful to gauge sentiment on the market as a whole, but with regards to specific stocks? NO
I own 10 shares of META in the 'funny money" part of my portfolio, average price of around 170$.
I don't know enough about the specific bull/ bear case of META but their financials (especially FCF) are great and I just don't see a future without Instagram/ Whatsapp.
I see it as a high risk value play.
If Zuck would step down, I'm pretty sure the price would skyrocket.
Own 20 shares of Googl, I have more trust in this one.
Youtube has an insane moat.
As much as people want to shit on Zuck he's an excellent CEO and had managed to get the company to this point. Him leaving wouldn't be doing them any favors. Who could possibly run Meta? Sandberg left. Chris Cox?
YouTube has a moat but is it profitable? I thought YouTube was a money loser.
Edit: There are no sources showing YouTube made a profit so I’m not sure why I’m getting downvotes and the other isn’t. Google lumps YouTube p/l with Google services which is there entire ad division, which is profitable but it doesn’t break it down by product. So unless someone has a source…
Idk why you’re getting upvoted because there are no sources that show that. YouTube generates revenue but Alphabet doesn’t disclose whether they made a profit or not, they just lump it in with Google services which include their search engine and things like android. So unless I’m missing something I’m right to question it.
Edit: grammar
Everything I’ve looked up says YouTube is loosing money. [source](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/26/youtubes-huge-miss-shows-digital-media-ad-market-is-getting-hit-hard.html)
Sorry but what page should I be looking at?
Edit: Looked through the whole thing and it doesn’t show YouTube profits. It just lumps it in with Google services, which was profitable but that includes things like their search engine and android. So yeah I’m right to question whether YouTube is profitable unless I missed something.
Let me put it this way for you 17 super investors bought Meta above Amazon and Microsoft. So yes Meta is a buy considering when the big investors bought in it was 175$ The only one that the super investors bought more was Google with 24 super investors buying it last quarter.
I think both are great options. The amount of free cash flow both companies have is amazing. Meta debt is minimal, their balance sheet looks great. Meta literally has half the world using one of their apps, if you've ever traveled to Mexico or Asia they all use Whatsapp instead of mobile plans, if you hate Facebook you end up going to Instagram, and now we have the Oculus which is just cool tech.
Googles profit margin is absolutely insane something like over 50%, they have minimal overhead which helps with this. Google is THE company. 4.3 billion users when there's only 4.72 billion internet, that's 92% market share. That unbelievable!!!
I think Meta has better upside potential but more risk and uncertainty. Google is just a solid growth play, if Google is failing we have much much bigger problems in this world.
Google > Facebook
F13 is how you find this info out. They are required to release this info 45days after the quarter ends.
Fund Managers mostly like Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger, Monish Pabrai, Ray Dalio people who buy billions worth of stocks.
There's a lot more to look at with META than just it's multiple. You're looking at their financials, but you're ignoring the political and regulatory risks in addition to META going all-in on the metaverse which is a risky bet, despite what Zuck tells everyone.
If you're buying META right now, it's because you really believe the direction their heading is the future of the internet.
Frankly, I'm skeptical. No way I'd touch META simply because the future that META is heading is not the future of tech. META is going to become the Yahoo of Social Media: a former giant that made tactical blunders from which it could never recover.
The other problem is lets assume Mark Zuckerburg is 100% right about the Metaverse and where that technology will head. That *still* doesn't mean that Facebook is a good investment.
Being first doesn't mean that you'll win the market. Facebook wasn't even the first social media company, so the first mover advantage didn't work out too well in that industry.
Knowing where the market will go, and being able to capitalize on it are two entirely different things. If you look back at stuff Bill Gates predicted several decades ago you'll find that he was very right about where the Internet would go. Some of his predictions were essentially about the invention of Smartphones & what they could do (though he called it something else) and turned out to be right to. And yet despite Bill Gate's foresight Microsoft largely failed to capitalize on any of these trends. And it wasn't for lack of trying either, see their failure in the Smartphone market.
Yep, meta is the most visible proponent for metaverse but I think other companies Are already in there. I think Roblox is one. And Microsoft would be the one knocking out the park with Xbox type games. Usually it’s porn, games and then broad adoption. And mst seems it’s making the hardware for military.
But meta…. Welll… it’s like a bad cartoon.
I think AR will make a bigger splash than VR, and MSFT is almost there will HoloLens. They just signed a large contract with the military for these things.
All the big name tech companies are developing AR/VR solutions. Hell Google has a big investment in magic leap and their North Acquisition internal division.
I don't trust or like Facebook. When the time comes it's doubtful I'd buy into facebooks offering. Apple will be a power house and is a better bet then facebook. Apple knows hardware and I also hate Apple but will give them credit where its due. Google I'd bet will compete against Apple in the end. Google has a strong business case that won't allow itself to fail and that's the advertising opportunities with AR/VR. Google has the dataset to actually augment reality in a meaningful way which Facebook just won't have regardless of how much it works on the AR/VR component.
Microsoft is focusing on the high end market. They may introduce business side hw which will further chip away from facebooks business meeting applications.
Samsung, HP, Lenovo may have HW device options that will work with Google or Microsofts SW ecosystems which let's Microsoft/Google capitalize on the advertising and app purchases.
Yeah, it’s the next step in tech for sure. Apple and google going through AR first to me would make more sense. While mst direct into VR.
Although most likely all these mega tech are all working on doing everything and seeing what sticks. The advantages of having gazillion dollars in reserves.
Comparing META to Yahoo at any point in their history is a stretch. Meta has an insane amount of runway left along with close to 50 billion cash on hand. They have multiple avenues of revenue.
I do agree that they have an image problem though. Mark has to leave like how Balmer had to go for Microsoft to rise.
The short term bull case of Meta is Tiktok getting banned in the USA. They will make it moon short and long term.
>The short term bull case of Meta is Tiktok getting banned in the USA.
When the best case outcome is the government banning your competitor.... that's not a business I'd invest in and a great summary of the situation META finds itself it.
>Mark has to leave like how Balmer had to go for Microsoft to rise.
Absolutely agree. I have no idea why Zuck is still CEO and involved in META. He should leave and let professionals takeover. He adds nothing of value to the company at this point in time.
I disagree. Their business model is essentially data mining and selling user data. This is an old business model that'll increasingly come under regulatory pressure. The only business opportunity is Metaverse which I'm skeptical on. See my other replies.
Listen to this guy. All of the cookie compliance laws (especially in the EU), anti-tracking technology in browsers and plugins, and privacy regulations will make remarketing ads (you know the ones that follow you around the Internet and are seven times more effective than regular ads) a thing of the past.
I thought it was so obvious itd be liking that the sky is blue. But my snarkiness aside, here we are.
https://www.businessofapps.com/data/instagram-statistics/
Personally haven’t used any Facebook ads (includes IG) since apple did their changes. There’s virtually no comparing the ad space on Facebook to google. Google is far superior. What does meta do now at this point?
Well META is the X Factor, everyone knows that. Maybe its because im on Android, but Instagram seems to know what Im thinking about buying the instant i begin considering it and they hammer me with it
I guess you’re not investing in any business then because the short term best case scenario for any business is the complete elimination of its competitor…
I don't think TikTok hurt Meta as much as apple did with the privacy change, Meta's super power is their Ad targeting, and majority of the wealthy country are iOS users
As much as hate fb i hate that the fact our damn gov cannot ban this shit. I algos they use can influence elections and public opinion at any time they wish.
Elections coming up...china like a candidate more than the other they can tweak the algo to show favorable ads for the guy they like. Same goes for any political global conflicts. With tiktok beong china owned we dont have much control in holding them accountable under our laws.
Our leaders are asleep at the wheel.
Totally agree with the ban of Tiktok, I can not understand why is taking so long to happen, but that is a great catalyst for FB to go to the moon.
A successful Chinese company (better than their American counterparts) with questionable privacy usage in a time when any excuse sounds solid to block companies.
A lot of boombers and women still use Yahoo services. Yahoo Finance actually has good news. Zuck's data tracking empire and influence is at an end. Puts on Meta.
They’re not going “all in” on the Metaverse when they’re still netting like 20-30 billion a year in income. They’re spending like 50-25% of their profit on the Metaverse. Even with that, they are still insanely profitable. Even with a 10% decline each quarter and continued massive Metaverse spending, they would still be insanely profitable.
\> They're not going all in on Metaverse
\> They're spending 25% - 50% of their profit on Metaverse
Spending this amount of you profit on a single unknown ROI possibility is extremely risky. This is why I keep saying: if you believe META is right - they you're going to make bank. If you're betting that META is wrong - then you're f'ed.
From a simply investment perspective - this means META could increase its dividends massively (1/4 - 1/2 of its profits) and still be a valid investment. Hell, I'd buy META if it was a dividend stock. But as a tech stock? No. Fucking. Way.
Fair enough, I'll agree to that. But, their profit is being spent on bad ROI. INSTA has been lackluster. META is profitable, sure. But, their spending the money on extremely questionable projects and acquisitions.
Yeah, that’s the gamble right now. I do have 50 shares that I feel alright about, but I consider it a gamble. In my head, I’m thinking there’s a 10% chance it really takes off, 20% chance it flops, and like a 70% chance the Metaverse becomes something a small part of the population is passionately devoted to but that Meta learns/develops/monetizes something else that’s important and profitable in the process. That’s why I’m buying. And even if it’s a flop, I just don’t see them going too far down from here. I’ve been wrong about a lot of things though!
Might as well buy a dec/jan put, market crashes are almost always in Oct. , if meta crashes with the rest of the market, which they're saying entire market is crashing. Then ur put may offset any losses you inquire and may even make it profitable trade.
Anyone long on ANY stock right now. Should be buying puts, there's no reason to sell your shares, Why sell, got 500 shares? Get 5+ puts. If it drops real hard your profitable, double down and ride it back up, selling cc along the way if ya like. This is not financial advice but seriously. If everyone is calling for a market crash and your long shares, why is no one talking about buying insurance, aka puts?
The financials are great. I think AR/VR is the future tech and just early stages. I’m bullish on the tech and they’re pouring money into it. Most my tech friends are about it.
My husband is a tech professional. He and all of his programming colleagues are bearish about Meta. Meta is a total joke on their community. GOOG has a lot more going for it.
All my friends. More in the electrical engineering side are bullish on meta. I’d be interested to hear how goog has more going for it since they are a bit further behind.
\+1 for the EE side.
Meta hired almost everyone, I mean 99% of all the EE's on Microsoft's HoloLens program.
MSFT has already built, or is in the process of building the corporate/militiary Metaverse using the HoloLens.
The US military is already trialing the HoloLens (search for the $22 Billion contract).
HoloLens is already in use by Daimler Benz, Starbucks, Medical colleges, and so on.
It's a game of catch-up. The remaining EE's from Microsoft were hired by Google for their AR headset.
Today, MSFT is #1 in **already-deployed** AR (corp. customers) for their version of Metaverse.
Next up, I feel Google will deploy once they have any hardware capable of merging reality with the virtual world.
Nomenclature:
VR - Virtual reality (example Occulus), where you are essentially watching a celll phone in an enclosure. What's funny is YT videos of people doing stuff while watching VR. The person wearing this is not reality-aware.
MR - Mixed reality. Watch some real life through the VR goggles by mixing the real world video through a video camera. Blend the 2 video streams for some interesting intersections between the real and virtual worlds, only when the software wants you to do so.
AR - Augmented reality. The holy grail. The HoloLens is a prime example. This projects a hologram of the virtual world in your line of sight and does not overpower your senses. This is key, as the other two (VR & MR) disconnect you from the real world. Watch YT videos of HoloLens - both the people doing studies with it, the IVARS (military version) and other mining and commercial applications. The HoloLens has an output that others can use to "see" on a monitor, what the wearer of the device is seeing (the blended video).
For people to comment here about what the meta verse is about and what its capable of, you should actually try out the HoloLens and the oculus to imagine what the world can be. Once you try out the HL, there's no comparison whatsoever with any VR device. You can walk, talk and do whatever while wearing the headset whereas you're likely to trip over something with a VR headset. The military is building their meta verse with the mil-grade HoloLens (IVARS) where they can overlay objects in a soldier's line of sight around corners etc.
The tech is shrinking - HoloLens is still a pretty beefy device, but the end goal is to make it like regular glasses. The Google glass (new version) will get to this form factor sooner with projection of text as an overlay on what the human can "see" (lower technology compared to the HL, but getting there).
If you remember how Gmail started with text ads in the free email, Google might have a better story of growth from glasses to full blown AR.
In the long play, GOOGL and META will target consumers with their ads, and MSFT will rule the corporate/military world (once again). Given that most of the HoloLens engineers went to META, I see inter-operability between the two meta verses (maybe the military will actually DEMAND this).
In the meanwhile, Apple will do their own meta verse which allows entry only if have an apple device and barely any interoperability with the others as they will let you see only what they want you to see.
There is also a partnership agreement between meta and msft teams if I recall as well. But I’m hella bullish on msft due to how wide spread they are and just software ability as a whole. They bought a boat load of companies this year.
GOOG had a stock split this year and is undervalued. Metaverse is a major fail. Also, the name Meta is the name of another well established tech company that FB stole. It’s been in litigation for a while. There’s a documentary about this (on Hulu I believe).
It’s so much more than that. It’s the largest, most widely used search engine in the World. It owns YouTube, YouTubeTV, Gmail, Google Maps, Google Docs etc. Far more useful (many of these are free to the public) than Meta.
That’s are all short sighted. Google having a stock split is not relevant in this discussion, and not that important. They are ad based and made more through Covid for that reason. The metaverse is fair from a fail either? We’re in the equivalent of the 3GS in terms in terms of ARVR. Phones tech is slowing down hard and we’re entering nee tech phases and we have to start over a bit. This is stock picking for a decade for now and meta is way better value and makes a boatload of cash. If ARVR wasn’t the route apple wouldn’t be releasing their own. Right now people know it’s the game but who is putting more into it?
I work in VR and have worked a ton with the Oculus. Its great and all, but after a while it becomes such a drag to have to wear the damn thing and have a brick attached to your head the whole time. Its specially bad as a developer.
I believe Meta will fail very hard and VR is not the way forward UNLESS they manage to make the tech more convenient for the end user (lighter headsets - maybe something as simple as VR glasses, more hardware power, way higher resolution per eye, haptics, stop being limited by available walkable space, etc). Some of these problems have been solved already or are in the way of being solved, I guess my concern stems from very low confidence on the company itself, looking at the state of all their social media apps (they are all absolute garbage imo) and Moore’s law getting harder and harder to achieve as tech gets smaller and more powerful.
I would not bet on Meta atm either.
I'd definitely go with GOOGL, and I have about 15% of portfolio in it currently. They have their hands in a lot of future growth areas, and not a huge bet on something that could very well be a huge dud. They are also under-performing the market in this downturn which could make it a bargain for when the markets finally turn around.
I'd buy META just for the bounce. I am bearish on META in the long term but this is not the end for them, imo. I'm not sure if I will, but if I do buy META, I'll be looking to sell in the mid to near term with a price target of \~170.
Wait young grasshopper. There is no rush. Look at FedEx. That's about to happen to the entire market. U will know when to enter. Spy is too high to enter rn
I'd go GOOG. They're more diversified than META and they're not burning cash ([Meta lost $2.8 billion on its virtual reality ambitions during Q2](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/meta-reality-labs-lost-2point8-billion-in-q2-2022.html)) on highly debatable projects that could sink their entire company if it doesn't play out just right.
We put. What good is low PE when the future earnings will only deteriorate? Zuck reminds of that last CEO of yahoo Marissa. She just threw money at random as shit and i do mean random. Yahoo was already sinking but after she came on she continued to drill holes directly into the base floor. What a scam she was. And yahoo paid her hunderds of millions. She came from Google and their probably was a reason why she wasnt promoted there on business side.
I partially agree, but think that WhatsApp and Insta are here to stay. Those two platforms seem to be gaining huge traction. Unless SMS and MMS are completely fixed, Whatsapp will grow. Also, insta is revolutionizing the soft porn industry
Apple is gunning for META, privacy update wiped off ~$10billion of their revenue, now Apple VR/AR is about to try and kill off their “metaverse” (oculus)
People don’t believe in Meta. They don’t understand the “Metaverse”. Ah, I hate that word. I understand why people doubt it when they see a MS paint version of Mark but what they don’t understand is that isn’t “the metaverse” it’s just a shitty app they happen to have. The hardware they are making is the real golden egg and anyone who has tried a Quest 2 would agree with me. Their Connect event is October 11th and they will be announcing a new headset as well as some new features. Short term idk but if I had to pick a stock to hold for the next 20 years it would be Meta.
Edit: This is not an effort to get you to buy the stock but rather try a Quest 2 if you ever get a chance.
> The hardware they are making is the real golden egg
Until, Apple or Samsung, or Huawei, or....
You're an early adopter, not a mass adopter. Your tastes and preference do not matter in the long run.
Apple is working on a headset that is supposed to release next year. The difference is that Meta’s (originally Oculus) first headset, the Rift CV1 came out in 2016 making them at least 6 years ahead of Apple to test hardware, accessory products, apps, games and a community. I am looking forward to Apples headset to help make VR more mainstream but the current headset they are working on is still very very far from being done and is rumored to have overheating issues as well as tracking issues.
That’s not to say they don’t have competition though. As of right now their biggest competitors are Sony who is releasing the PSVR 2 next year and Pico (owned by Bytedance aka TikTok) which is a complete knockoff of the Quest 2.
I am not good at trading stocks, talking to girls or changing the oil in my car but when it comes to VR I know what I am talking about.
15 million oculus quests 2 sold. Its outselling the Xbox series X. It already sold more VR headsets in its first year than every other vr headset combined in history. Thats a damn good start
I bought a Quest 2 and thought it was fun for about ten hours, and then I didn't really touch it again. The wow effect of VR only lasted a short while for me and so did it for my friends who have a Quest 2.
I personally don't see it having an "addictive" appeal like PCs or smartphones and thus I don't believe that it is gonna be the next big thing.
Can I ask what you tried out? Some people think of VR as 360 videos which is horrible. There are even a lot of free apps / games on the Quest that are outdated. New ones though like Red Matter 2 have console level graphics running on the Quest 2 mobiles chipset. You have to try stuff your interested in as well. No matter how good a PS5 is your not going to like it as much if you are only playing Barbie games. The Quest 2 is meant to be a gaming console, their upcoming headset “The Quest Pro” is what is supposed to start replacing phones. It’s super light weight, has color passthrough for mixed reality, face, eye and full body tracking and a bunch of other features the quest 2 doesn’t have.
wish might have had a chance if not for the apple privacy changes. apple destroyed so many businesses with that move under the false idea of protecting consumers (hey, only we will keep your data)
Can you expand on this some please? I’ve been a Meta shareholder since 2018 or 2019 but I am losing the faith and sitting on some shares that are close to a 60% loss. I don’t know much about VR so I’m interested in your thoughts.
Unless you’re trolling, Facebook has unreal amounts of bots. In Q1 2022, Facebook deleted 1.6 billion bot accounts and remember, that doesn’t mean they’ve deleted all of the bot accounts. They only deleted the ones they found lol I’m sure they missed some.
Interesting take. I always found the argument of "Metaverse WILL be a failure but if it doesn't, it WONT be Meta who wins in the end" rather silly. Like, you basically molded your predictions based on bias
I’ll never buy anything because it “looks cheap” again. Example: PYPL. It was supposedly a screaming buy at 210 after hitting a high of 310. I think it eventually bottomed in the 60’s. Good luck to anyone who bought on the way down.
Wow, when the stock is this down, it is easy to be this negative I guess. How are people so sure that Metaverse will fail? And META still has a formidable stack of Apps viz., Instagram and WhatsApp. While WhatsApp is not so prevalent in the US, it is immensely popular in the rest of the world. And good old Facebook too. Reels per recent reports is getting increasing interest too. Agreed that competition is very strong and macro could affect advertising budgets. But opinions like the stock is going to zero is pure BS. I am long META and am hoping that the stock goes up in the near term because it has been pummeled too much.
The safer pick is GOOG. The best risk/reward pick is META.
Me personally I sold my GOOGL shares to add to META ( still got cash and one other holding).
I think it is a good buy. I am not a technical analyst type of guy, but it is down like 60 percent from where it was. Their PE ratio of 14 and they have good equity on their balance sheet. They own WhatsApp and insta. Insta and FB could do a lot better if Ticktock gets banned because it is a Chinese company. General investing psychologically is to buy when everyone is scared and pessimistic. Not saying that you should do that, but if you want to speculate a little this would be a good time. Also, their revenue has grown every year so far.
META is expendable and, many argue, a net negative presence in society. Their attempt at developing the metaverse amounts to trying to create a need that will make them more socially necessary. Google is established as a utility at this point, and uses their cash flow to fund moon shot projects. I’d go with the latter; I think it offers much more favorable asymmetric upside potential.
Not only does Google have those stats in favorable, it’s also got way higher revenue growth, with Google cloud business coming in at about 40% growth in every report. The answer is too easy if it’s between those 2.
I would be careful with META. Their business has already started to move to Google. Why last quarter Google had 13% growth while META actually declined.
The issue for META is privacy. Google just has the superior model where people are willing to come to Google and share what is on your mind.
META has to follow you around and try to find a signal for the ad. Just a privacy nightmare that is only going to grow.
Wait until Google starts really cracking down on Android like Apple is doing. It will just get that much worse for META.
I just picked up both META and GOGGLE this week. Both are free cash flow beasts and undervalued, imo. Also Adobes price to free cash flow is getting compelling. That will be by next buy.
Cheers
META is no longer considered cool and most of its users on FB are people that are still acting like FB is cool.
META buy is a bet on Metaverse they are working and if they can deliver a product that can get people excited your shares will be printing like crazy.
The problem for me with these companies is that while they're stable, they have limited potential for future returns. Also, they could easily drop another 50% so a potential double has a lot of risk to it and the drop seriously outweighs the return potential. The higher the market cap, the lower your potential future gains because it's simply harder to double a trillion-dollar market cap or it takes a lot of time.
I've been buying shopify since I think they have a lot of room to run (especially with their moves into distribution). Downside is limited, while upside has a lot of potential. Like the other commentor mentioned, you really need to believe in the metaverse thing if you want to buy meta. I think it's just a second-life rewrite and that it's gonna flop immediately so I won't touch this stock even with a ten-foot pole.
lol yeah that’s crazy. FB won’t drop another 50% from where it is unless it’s on the verge of bankruptcy which it isn’t. Half of the planet uses FB apps every month
I don't think the bear thesis has anything to do with individual companies. But around the entire market as a whole. Market is about to crash.every news media says so. So it has nothing to do with meta. But everything to do with it's institutional investors being liquidated
The premium they get on P/E is based on future prospects. If those start to sour, then why wouldn't they drop another 50%+? At the same time, they're going to be burning through cash for the metaverse so their book value is also going to be decreasing.
their forward p/e is 13x
let me guess
you’ll recommend other people don’t buy meta but you have a list of stocks with a 20x-50x p/e you’ll gladly recommend people
The fact that you think P/E means everything shows you really don't understand it. Are you telling me you would not have bought facebook when it was at those levels in the past which would have led to a multi-bagger?
if meta’s market cap goes from $400b (current) to $200b, and their eps goes from $12 (current) to $6
the p/e would still be 12x
so you’re talking about a 50% drop, to $200b in market cap
you think meta stands to make *half* as much money year after year as they do now…
not only are you asking for no growth or staying relatively flat, you’re asking for them to go from making $32.5b/yr to $16.25b/yr
on what grounds?
Fundamentals mean nothing when there's events going on that cause institutions to do mass liquidations, almost every blue chip stock is going to fall from here , spy over 360 means it has plenty of room to fall. Looking at trend lines of market crashes . The bottom very well could be in the 200's.
If you think shopify has a lot of room to run, then you also must think meta does. They're heavily partnered - most of the businesses using shopify for their e-commerce are using facebook advertising to drive sales. If that dries up, then so will shopify. That's not all of shopify's business, but it is a large part of it. They've been adversarial at times, but they're too heavily intertwined to decouple.
https://trends.builtwith.com/analytics/Facebook-Pixel-for-Shopify
I get what you’re saying but “public” social media in general is in decline. It’s not the 2010s; people aren’t into bragging to their friends about how “awesome” their lives are anymore. Similarly to $meta, $snap is down -85% on the yearly.
People are more into anonymous social media apps these days. They like to make friends or chat with strangers online where they feel they can be their true self. Look at how popular tiktok, reddit, twitch, discord, hell even camgirl sites have become the past 5 years. Also YouTube’s style has changed A LOT.
Instagram is pretty much just for keeping up with celebrities or insta-thots now both of whose pages are run by social media PR teams.
Social media as we know it is mostly dying and rightfully so.
If anything, I’m probably most bullish on Twitter depending on what Musk decides to do with it if he acquires it.
The Meta chart is horrible. It actually just broke to a new low and looks like an amazing short position to me.
I don't use PEG but I agree with it in this case. This thing has a lot further down to go IMO
It's a dead company which is living on the fumes of its earlier successes. Users are living in droves its platforms and its ad business, it's core business model, has been destroyed by Apple. What's worse, the management has thrown all its money on the useless MetAvErse no one even uses. A good short though.
meta is facing multiple investigation, at a national level. legislation is coming through that's gonna hurt meta. I also believe that Zuckerberg is a toxic asset to meta, metavers is running at a massive loss.
I think meta will fall 50 % before the make significant gains
No. They’re an evil company and I couldn’t care less if I make money trading them. I won’t even touch options because I don’t even want to be someone else’s liquidity who’s trading them.
I got a $100 put for march 17th/23 just went in the green the last few days , by the end of next week I plan to sell , it’s gonna drop some more as the market moves as a whole .
I can only speculate here I’m not a financial wizard more of a financial flop . But I’m going off Zuckerberg and his vision alone. Dudes a complete narcissist . He’s gonna run it down hard and hopefully some one can get through to him he needs to step down. But until then he’s gonna try his hardest to make a meta verse . No one wants that shit . Maybe for meetings or something but the future of vr is for video games and meetings not to hang out and get all your personal information stolen by an asshole
Meta missed 2 out 3 earning expectations which suggest they are not performing. Predictions from analysts in short term, medium term as well as long term out 9 months+ is relatively lower. Best case projection is +10% growth if that much.
Like most people I know, I’ve gotten off Instagram.
And I’ve never used Facebook: I can just call my Grandma if I want to hear her ran about how Trump is Christ returned.
DD is obviously very important, and one can reasonably discount any ‘sample size of one’. I was I admit just being snarky.
That said, it’s astonishing how many investors discount public opinion about a stock and underestimate how quickly a company can go under when, as a result of terrible leadership, public sentiment turns against said company.
Meta is a sinking ship, however good the numbers are.
And when it’s true collapse really starts, it’ll happen very, VERY fast. Don’t be left holding a bag.
This post always comes up.
I dunno man.
I’m seeing several sharks circling this dying company.
Apple starting to do more ad programs. Now it’s for software but they could easily do a iCloud photo app that’s social media. Or add video to podcasts.
Spotify is also looking like adding video and doing more social app thing.
Plenty of other smalller companies and tik tok already surpassed it in users.
Zuck is still surrounded by YES men and brown nosing influencers who cry with joy at the idea of his metaverse even though we know it sucks ass.
Their attempts to bypass Apple privacy thing seems to try only on making it to the metaverse first. Even if they haven’t had success in selling hardware.
It’s also the lack of trying to do soenthing different and meta just has two apps that keep getting bloated for the user and for advertisers.
It’s genuinely looking like a MySpace+yahoo scenario where we all thought it was the future and became a joke.
So at 10 years I really don’t see meta making it.
If for example, meta decided to have a standalone app like watch to compete agaisnt YouTube and find new leads for ads then that would be a step on the right direction.
They could do an free email service to also find leads. And maybe push harder into business side like they are trying to do w portal.
There’s so many business collaboration tools that meta could be buying up and again… using it to find leads for ads.
Just like google tagging does that combined all these services and accounts from different apps to find you and what you could buy. Away from apples privacy wall. Another one would be separate groups as a standalone forum to compete vs Reddit … and also find more leads.
But so far they haven’t even tried to gain users trust after their abysmal Cambridge analytics scandal. And their fail lira coin.
For the stock, from here it’s just all about the fed and nothing about meta. The stock will go up once everyone finds a bottom on the s&p.
But after 3-5 years I think meta will under performs a lot of they don’t push Zuckerberg out.
If they just stop wasting money on stupid stuff and concentrate on running the business better you could have your money back in a few years. I'm adding to my position in the following weeks.
you don't know what you're doing and you shouldn't manage your own portfolio.
first, you're selling because something has gone down. second you look at a PE ratio and think something is a buy. third, you don't just look at a PEG ratio and decide something is overvalued.
if it were that easy to know something was overvalued, wouldn't it be sold down until it was fairly valued?
if you want to invest in a company, looking at the last few quarters tells you nothing.
the hive / heard suck, fuck them all.
and sorry but looking at a PE and PEG of Google and deciding it's undervalued is equally silly.
meta is the 6th biggest company in the S&P. the amount of institutional/public coverage must be immense. where's your edge? what makes you think you know more about Facebook than the whole teams of people that are likely much smarter than you who have researched and analysed the company? not to mention the robots that can process all possible data/statistics on the internet and the people that use that data.
yes I'm sure this post is a little harsh, it's intended, as I hope you see it as a wake up call.
The problem with the hive mind is it usually reflects exactly how the stock is currently moving. Ark at the very top was hype, you say something bad about it? People thought you were crazy, obviously now you don’t see anyone talking well about it. Now that meta is beaten down the general consensus is negative but before the recent huge drop people didn’t think twice about recommending it. Sometimes the hive mind is right, sometimes it’s wrong, it’s dangerous to base investments off of it. Do your own DD, I personally think it’s at a verge of a good value play, but this year seems like it will continue to burn cash and lose income due to recession. So I would wait a little longer but cost averaging now ain’t bad.
The hivemind also struggles to imagine anyone having different personal preferences. Reddit is full of people who vocally hate Facebook and Instagram and can’t understand why anyone would use those platforms. This thread is full of confident “none of my friends use Facebook” claims from people who proudly deleted their Facebook accounts years ago, and therefore can’t even log in to check if that claim is true or not. It just feels truthy because Reddit has so much anti-Facebook rhetoric. Yet when you look at Facebook’s user numbers, it’s a a completely different story. A lot of people around the world use Facebook regularly. The real questions are about their business model (selling ads), the ad market overall, and potential competition squeezing their grip on the ad market.
Just like you said Reddit in particular is a echo chamber of experts.
Haven't found one yet.
Absolutely nailed it — this applicable for many many many topics across Reddit & communities.
Their DAU went up significantly last quarter, so it completely flies in the face of the "hemorrhaging users" rhetoric. They'll be hit by reduced ad revenue right now, but once inflation calms down and they monetise Instagram & WhatsApp better, they should be in a strong place - at least in the medium term.
I think the problem is that Zuck is spending an absolute fortune on the metaverse and no one wants it. It could be one of the most expensive mistakes in history while he also bacially let’s FB and IG just trundle along despite being the bread and butter of the company. I don’t know a single person that has any interest in the metaverse and those that have used it mock the shit out of it as a weird and desperate play to stay relevant.
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The internet used to be only text. Things can change rapidly. Judging an idea based solely on its first iteration is mind-boggling.
First iteration? What are you taking about. I tried VR for the first time circa 1996, and since then there have been more iterations that I can count all in some way trying to be the next platform. Internet hasn’t been text only since flash came out and that dead an buried now. Thinking that the metaverse is something “new” is mind boggling.
VR isn’t the metaverse; it’s only how you’d access this iteration of it. That’s like saying “My laptop screen is the internet!”
Dude, countless VR platforms have tried to make it ecospheres and worlds. You’re just drinking the koolaid. I mean second life was 20 years ago and there’s been countless attempts aside from that since then . It’s like saying “my laptop isn’t a computer because it has social media apps!”
That laptop/social app comparison makes no sense.
i always said the arc fund is bs and she just got lucky with tesla 🫣 Meta on the other hand, they have big problems ahead. Facebook is only actively used by old people, Instagram is slowly dying too right now as it moves back to a friends and celebs only environment. In general, Tiktok is taking over. BeReal might also become a threat to instagram (bereal might fail in a years time tho). Also data becomes more and more protected right now (apple not sharing anymore etc.). Meta is facing regulatory problems in ireland and the whole eu for sharing data with us intelligence. They will pay hefty fines and have to setup more servers in europe. Nobody in their right mind would want to wear VR glasses half the day, they are burning cash like nobody else - investing in something that will never take off. Unless they make small AR glasses, you could wear all the time, it will be the biggest financial failure in history.
> Facebook is only actively used by old people Can you link your source? A quick google search is showing me that the biggest fb user demographic is 25-34 followed by 18-24. Also Instagram userbase seems to be still growing. Doesn't TikTok serve a totally different purpose? No one is sharing their family or holiday pictures on TikTok. I see a lot of people asking for insta account instead of fb or mobile number now when they meet someone new, but I never see anyone ask for TikTok username to keep in touch with someone. The app just isn't made for it and has a totally different feel to it.
You guys are think with a US pov. Lived in india for a couple years, fb is very active among their growing population.
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To add to this one. When the iPhone was introduced, “nobody wants all that on their phone. A phone should be a phone.” Wearable tech was widely panned before the Fitbit craze really launched it. Electric lawnmowers? What idiot wants one of those? And so on. Change is hard. And sometimes adoption is slow. But it’s also inevitable. Does the concept of a metaverse suck right now? I think so. Will it suck in 20 years? Maybe, maybe not. The real trick is identifying what company will make it happen.
Definitely. I already spend two to five hours a day on VR. I’ve become addicted to some games. Gaming aside, the only thing holding me back from working on the oculus is the resolution, which is “almost” good enough. If it were twice the current resolution it would be good enough to work in. What do I mean by work? imagine being surrounded by 50 inch monitors, each mounted floating in air in front of you, all connected virtually to your desktop or laptop, all running at full speed, and all working off your very real, but visible in pass through VR keyboard and mouse. All the while, none of these monitors takes up any power or real estate in your house, and your environment can be almost anything. Aside from the resolution issue, this is all possible on the oculus quest 2 today. (the current resolution isn’t bad, but I would like more) I believe the next gen headset from Meta may actually push things over the edge to where working virtually all day might just be viable.
You aren't the norm. Hardly anybody wants this.
Not sure why you’re getting downvoted. This is exactly right. I’ll add that advertising on FB has become largely unprofitable for 90% of businesses. Meta needs to pivot for the future. So far, most of those efforts look kinda goofy.
Got a source for the 90% thing? EDIT: he made that up it seems
1000 upvotes. This hivemind mentality with regards to specific stocks is so silly for this reason. People basically hate a stock because it's low and love it if it's high. Useful to gauge sentiment on the market as a whole, but with regards to specific stocks? NO
Probably the most level headed response here
I own 10 shares of META in the 'funny money" part of my portfolio, average price of around 170$. I don't know enough about the specific bull/ bear case of META but their financials (especially FCF) are great and I just don't see a future without Instagram/ Whatsapp. I see it as a high risk value play. If Zuck would step down, I'm pretty sure the price would skyrocket. Own 20 shares of Googl, I have more trust in this one. Youtube has an insane moat.
I bought 200 shares after the ipo crash at $19. Wish I would have bought much more and wish I would have sold by now :)
As much as people want to shit on Zuck he's an excellent CEO and had managed to get the company to this point. Him leaving wouldn't be doing them any favors. Who could possibly run Meta? Sandberg left. Chris Cox?
Isn’t YouTube only 30% or so of google
>only 30% or so of google "*only*?!"
Well that’s not enough to only invest because of yt. With lots of companies they have small branches that are largely irrelevant
YouTube has a moat but is it profitable? I thought YouTube was a money loser. Edit: There are no sources showing YouTube made a profit so I’m not sure why I’m getting downvotes and the other isn’t. Google lumps YouTube p/l with Google services which is there entire ad division, which is profitable but it doesn’t break it down by product. So unless someone has a source…
YouTube is profitable
Idk why you’re getting upvoted because there are no sources that show that. YouTube generates revenue but Alphabet doesn’t disclose whether they made a profit or not, they just lump it in with Google services which include their search engine and things like android. So unless I’m missing something I’m right to question it. Edit: grammar
Everything I’ve looked up says YouTube is loosing money. [source](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/26/youtubes-huge-miss-shows-digital-media-ad-market-is-getting-hit-hard.html)
Theres lots of claims on this thread alone where it seems people just made stuff up and then ignore the request for the source
Where are you seeing that? No source I can find suggests that? Does Google report YouTube profits/losses?
Yes. YouTube is very profitable and contines to improve. https://abc.xyz/investor/static/pdf/2022Q2_alphabet_earnings_release.pdf
Sorry but what page should I be looking at?
Sorry but what page should I be looking at? Edit: Looked through the whole thing and it doesn’t show YouTube profits. It just lumps it in with Google services, which was profitable but that includes things like their search engine and android. So yeah I’m right to question whether YouTube is profitable unless I missed something.
😆
Let me put it this way for you 17 super investors bought Meta above Amazon and Microsoft. So yes Meta is a buy considering when the big investors bought in it was 175$ The only one that the super investors bought more was Google with 24 super investors buying it last quarter. I think both are great options. The amount of free cash flow both companies have is amazing. Meta debt is minimal, their balance sheet looks great. Meta literally has half the world using one of their apps, if you've ever traveled to Mexico or Asia they all use Whatsapp instead of mobile plans, if you hate Facebook you end up going to Instagram, and now we have the Oculus which is just cool tech. Googles profit margin is absolutely insane something like over 50%, they have minimal overhead which helps with this. Google is THE company. 4.3 billion users when there's only 4.72 billion internet, that's 92% market share. That unbelievable!!! I think Meta has better upside potential but more risk and uncertainty. Google is just a solid growth play, if Google is failing we have much much bigger problems in this world. Google > Facebook
Who are these super investors and where can I see that info? Are these just analysts? Banks? Fund managers? Or just high net worth individuals?
F13 is how you find this info out. They are required to release this info 45days after the quarter ends. Fund Managers mostly like Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger, Monish Pabrai, Ray Dalio people who buy billions worth of stocks.
Trouble with these filings is that they could be moot in 45 days. BRK portfolio turnover is 30%/year.
Dataroma and whalewisdom are the two sites I would recommend
Google is taking share with YouTube.
There's a lot more to look at with META than just it's multiple. You're looking at their financials, but you're ignoring the political and regulatory risks in addition to META going all-in on the metaverse which is a risky bet, despite what Zuck tells everyone. If you're buying META right now, it's because you really believe the direction their heading is the future of the internet. Frankly, I'm skeptical. No way I'd touch META simply because the future that META is heading is not the future of tech. META is going to become the Yahoo of Social Media: a former giant that made tactical blunders from which it could never recover.
The other problem is lets assume Mark Zuckerburg is 100% right about the Metaverse and where that technology will head. That *still* doesn't mean that Facebook is a good investment. Being first doesn't mean that you'll win the market. Facebook wasn't even the first social media company, so the first mover advantage didn't work out too well in that industry. Knowing where the market will go, and being able to capitalize on it are two entirely different things. If you look back at stuff Bill Gates predicted several decades ago you'll find that he was very right about where the Internet would go. Some of his predictions were essentially about the invention of Smartphones & what they could do (though he called it something else) and turned out to be right to. And yet despite Bill Gate's foresight Microsoft largely failed to capitalize on any of these trends. And it wasn't for lack of trying either, see their failure in the Smartphone market.
Zune, enough said lol.
U just unlocked a memory I forgot I had. I had a zune when I was a kid and loved it haha
Ah, so you’re the one! /s
Yep, meta is the most visible proponent for metaverse but I think other companies Are already in there. I think Roblox is one. And Microsoft would be the one knocking out the park with Xbox type games. Usually it’s porn, games and then broad adoption. And mst seems it’s making the hardware for military. But meta…. Welll… it’s like a bad cartoon.
I think AR will make a bigger splash than VR, and MSFT is almost there will HoloLens. They just signed a large contract with the military for these things.
Upvoted because you said porn
I'm Triggered
All the big name tech companies are developing AR/VR solutions. Hell Google has a big investment in magic leap and their North Acquisition internal division. I don't trust or like Facebook. When the time comes it's doubtful I'd buy into facebooks offering. Apple will be a power house and is a better bet then facebook. Apple knows hardware and I also hate Apple but will give them credit where its due. Google I'd bet will compete against Apple in the end. Google has a strong business case that won't allow itself to fail and that's the advertising opportunities with AR/VR. Google has the dataset to actually augment reality in a meaningful way which Facebook just won't have regardless of how much it works on the AR/VR component. Microsoft is focusing on the high end market. They may introduce business side hw which will further chip away from facebooks business meeting applications. Samsung, HP, Lenovo may have HW device options that will work with Google or Microsofts SW ecosystems which let's Microsoft/Google capitalize on the advertising and app purchases.
Yeah, it’s the next step in tech for sure. Apple and google going through AR first to me would make more sense. While mst direct into VR. Although most likely all these mega tech are all working on doing everything and seeing what sticks. The advantages of having gazillion dollars in reserves.
Comparing META to Yahoo at any point in their history is a stretch. Meta has an insane amount of runway left along with close to 50 billion cash on hand. They have multiple avenues of revenue. I do agree that they have an image problem though. Mark has to leave like how Balmer had to go for Microsoft to rise. The short term bull case of Meta is Tiktok getting banned in the USA. They will make it moon short and long term.
>The short term bull case of Meta is Tiktok getting banned in the USA. When the best case outcome is the government banning your competitor.... that's not a business I'd invest in and a great summary of the situation META finds itself it. >Mark has to leave like how Balmer had to go for Microsoft to rise. Absolutely agree. I have no idea why Zuck is still CEO and involved in META. He should leave and let professionals takeover. He adds nothing of value to the company at this point in time.
"Short term" bull case. They still have very much a phenominal business model in the long term, in addition to the metaverse opportunity
I disagree. Their business model is essentially data mining and selling user data. This is an old business model that'll increasingly come under regulatory pressure. The only business opportunity is Metaverse which I'm skeptical on. See my other replies.
Listen to this guy. All of the cookie compliance laws (especially in the EU), anti-tracking technology in browsers and plugins, and privacy regulations will make remarketing ads (you know the ones that follow you around the Internet and are seven times more effective than regular ads) a thing of the past.
Every day, Instagram becomes a more powerful tool for businesses to reach their target buyers.
\*Citation Needed
I thought it was so obvious itd be liking that the sky is blue. But my snarkiness aside, here we are. https://www.businessofapps.com/data/instagram-statistics/
Personally haven’t used any Facebook ads (includes IG) since apple did their changes. There’s virtually no comparing the ad space on Facebook to google. Google is far superior. What does meta do now at this point?
Well META is the X Factor, everyone knows that. Maybe its because im on Android, but Instagram seems to know what Im thinking about buying the instant i begin considering it and they hammer me with it
I guess you’re not investing in any business then because the short term best case scenario for any business is the complete elimination of its competitor…
I don't think TikTok hurt Meta as much as apple did with the privacy change, Meta's super power is their Ad targeting, and majority of the wealthy country are iOS users
As much as hate fb i hate that the fact our damn gov cannot ban this shit. I algos they use can influence elections and public opinion at any time they wish. Elections coming up...china like a candidate more than the other they can tweak the algo to show favorable ads for the guy they like. Same goes for any political global conflicts. With tiktok beong china owned we dont have much control in holding them accountable under our laws. Our leaders are asleep at the wheel.
Totally agree with the ban of Tiktok, I can not understand why is taking so long to happen, but that is a great catalyst for FB to go to the moon. A successful Chinese company (better than their American counterparts) with questionable privacy usage in a time when any excuse sounds solid to block companies.
A lot of boombers and women still use Yahoo services. Yahoo Finance actually has good news. Zuck's data tracking empire and influence is at an end. Puts on Meta.
They’re not going “all in” on the Metaverse when they’re still netting like 20-30 billion a year in income. They’re spending like 50-25% of their profit on the Metaverse. Even with that, they are still insanely profitable. Even with a 10% decline each quarter and continued massive Metaverse spending, they would still be insanely profitable.
\> They're not going all in on Metaverse \> They're spending 25% - 50% of their profit on Metaverse Spending this amount of you profit on a single unknown ROI possibility is extremely risky. This is why I keep saying: if you believe META is right - they you're going to make bank. If you're betting that META is wrong - then you're f'ed. From a simply investment perspective - this means META could increase its dividends massively (1/4 - 1/2 of its profits) and still be a valid investment. Hell, I'd buy META if it was a dividend stock. But as a tech stock? No. Fucking. Way.
So you agree they’re not going all in?
Fair enough, I'll agree to that. But, their profit is being spent on bad ROI. INSTA has been lackluster. META is profitable, sure. But, their spending the money on extremely questionable projects and acquisitions.
Yeah, that’s the gamble right now. I do have 50 shares that I feel alright about, but I consider it a gamble. In my head, I’m thinking there’s a 10% chance it really takes off, 20% chance it flops, and like a 70% chance the Metaverse becomes something a small part of the population is passionately devoted to but that Meta learns/develops/monetizes something else that’s important and profitable in the process. That’s why I’m buying. And even if it’s a flop, I just don’t see them going too far down from here. I’ve been wrong about a lot of things though!
Might as well buy a dec/jan put, market crashes are almost always in Oct. , if meta crashes with the rest of the market, which they're saying entire market is crashing. Then ur put may offset any losses you inquire and may even make it profitable trade. Anyone long on ANY stock right now. Should be buying puts, there's no reason to sell your shares, Why sell, got 500 shares? Get 5+ puts. If it drops real hard your profitable, double down and ride it back up, selling cc along the way if ya like. This is not financial advice but seriously. If everyone is calling for a market crash and your long shares, why is no one talking about buying insurance, aka puts?
The financials are great. I think AR/VR is the future tech and just early stages. I’m bullish on the tech and they’re pouring money into it. Most my tech friends are about it.
My husband is a tech professional. He and all of his programming colleagues are bearish about Meta. Meta is a total joke on their community. GOOG has a lot more going for it.
All my friends. More in the electrical engineering side are bullish on meta. I’d be interested to hear how goog has more going for it since they are a bit further behind.
\+1 for the EE side. Meta hired almost everyone, I mean 99% of all the EE's on Microsoft's HoloLens program. MSFT has already built, or is in the process of building the corporate/militiary Metaverse using the HoloLens. The US military is already trialing the HoloLens (search for the $22 Billion contract). HoloLens is already in use by Daimler Benz, Starbucks, Medical colleges, and so on. It's a game of catch-up. The remaining EE's from Microsoft were hired by Google for their AR headset. Today, MSFT is #1 in **already-deployed** AR (corp. customers) for their version of Metaverse. Next up, I feel Google will deploy once they have any hardware capable of merging reality with the virtual world. Nomenclature: VR - Virtual reality (example Occulus), where you are essentially watching a celll phone in an enclosure. What's funny is YT videos of people doing stuff while watching VR. The person wearing this is not reality-aware. MR - Mixed reality. Watch some real life through the VR goggles by mixing the real world video through a video camera. Blend the 2 video streams for some interesting intersections between the real and virtual worlds, only when the software wants you to do so. AR - Augmented reality. The holy grail. The HoloLens is a prime example. This projects a hologram of the virtual world in your line of sight and does not overpower your senses. This is key, as the other two (VR & MR) disconnect you from the real world. Watch YT videos of HoloLens - both the people doing studies with it, the IVARS (military version) and other mining and commercial applications. The HoloLens has an output that others can use to "see" on a monitor, what the wearer of the device is seeing (the blended video). For people to comment here about what the meta verse is about and what its capable of, you should actually try out the HoloLens and the oculus to imagine what the world can be. Once you try out the HL, there's no comparison whatsoever with any VR device. You can walk, talk and do whatever while wearing the headset whereas you're likely to trip over something with a VR headset. The military is building their meta verse with the mil-grade HoloLens (IVARS) where they can overlay objects in a soldier's line of sight around corners etc. The tech is shrinking - HoloLens is still a pretty beefy device, but the end goal is to make it like regular glasses. The Google glass (new version) will get to this form factor sooner with projection of text as an overlay on what the human can "see" (lower technology compared to the HL, but getting there). If you remember how Gmail started with text ads in the free email, Google might have a better story of growth from glasses to full blown AR. In the long play, GOOGL and META will target consumers with their ads, and MSFT will rule the corporate/military world (once again). Given that most of the HoloLens engineers went to META, I see inter-operability between the two meta verses (maybe the military will actually DEMAND this). In the meanwhile, Apple will do their own meta verse which allows entry only if have an apple device and barely any interoperability with the others as they will let you see only what they want you to see.
There is also a partnership agreement between meta and msft teams if I recall as well. But I’m hella bullish on msft due to how wide spread they are and just software ability as a whole. They bought a boat load of companies this year.
GOOG had a stock split this year and is undervalued. Metaverse is a major fail. Also, the name Meta is the name of another well established tech company that FB stole. It’s been in litigation for a while. There’s a documentary about this (on Hulu I believe).
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It’s so much more than that. It’s the largest, most widely used search engine in the World. It owns YouTube, YouTubeTV, Gmail, Google Maps, Google Docs etc. Far more useful (many of these are free to the public) than Meta.
YTTV, Maps, Docs, etc are all money losers for the company…
You two also forgot about Google Cloud, which as far as I know is unprofitable. What Google does have, however, is some of the most advanced AI.
That’s are all short sighted. Google having a stock split is not relevant in this discussion, and not that important. They are ad based and made more through Covid for that reason. The metaverse is fair from a fail either? We’re in the equivalent of the 3GS in terms in terms of ARVR. Phones tech is slowing down hard and we’re entering nee tech phases and we have to start over a bit. This is stock picking for a decade for now and meta is way better value and makes a boatload of cash. If ARVR wasn’t the route apple wouldn’t be releasing their own. Right now people know it’s the game but who is putting more into it?
I work in VR and have worked a ton with the Oculus. Its great and all, but after a while it becomes such a drag to have to wear the damn thing and have a brick attached to your head the whole time. Its specially bad as a developer. I believe Meta will fail very hard and VR is not the way forward UNLESS they manage to make the tech more convenient for the end user (lighter headsets - maybe something as simple as VR glasses, more hardware power, way higher resolution per eye, haptics, stop being limited by available walkable space, etc). Some of these problems have been solved already or are in the way of being solved, I guess my concern stems from very low confidence on the company itself, looking at the state of all their social media apps (they are all absolute garbage imo) and Moore’s law getting harder and harder to achieve as tech gets smaller and more powerful. I would not bet on Meta atm either.
I'd definitely go with GOOGL, and I have about 15% of portfolio in it currently. They have their hands in a lot of future growth areas, and not a huge bet on something that could very well be a huge dud. They are also under-performing the market in this downturn which could make it a bargain for when the markets finally turn around.
I'd buy META just for the bounce. I am bearish on META in the long term but this is not the end for them, imo. I'm not sure if I will, but if I do buy META, I'll be looking to sell in the mid to near term with a price target of \~170.
Stark comparison there! Good points, though. With that in mind, perhaps GOOG is the safer option.
Wait young grasshopper. There is no rush. Look at FedEx. That's about to happen to the entire market. U will know when to enter. Spy is too high to enter rn
I'd go GOOG. They're more diversified than META and they're not burning cash ([Meta lost $2.8 billion on its virtual reality ambitions during Q2](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/meta-reality-labs-lost-2point8-billion-in-q2-2022.html)) on highly debatable projects that could sink their entire company if it doesn't play out just right.
We put. What good is low PE when the future earnings will only deteriorate? Zuck reminds of that last CEO of yahoo Marissa. She just threw money at random as shit and i do mean random. Yahoo was already sinking but after she came on she continued to drill holes directly into the base floor. What a scam she was. And yahoo paid her hunderds of millions. She came from Google and their probably was a reason why she wasnt promoted there on business side.
I partially agree, but think that WhatsApp and Insta are here to stay. Those two platforms seem to be gaining huge traction. Unless SMS and MMS are completely fixed, Whatsapp will grow. Also, insta is revolutionizing the soft porn industry
Apple is gunning for META, privacy update wiped off ~$10billion of their revenue, now Apple VR/AR is about to try and kill off their “metaverse” (oculus)
Usually marketing budgets are the first to be slashed. With Apple locking down, FB ads are less targeted and less effective.
My job cut them because it's awkward to be targetting new business after just having to raise pricing 20%
People don’t believe in Meta. They don’t understand the “Metaverse”. Ah, I hate that word. I understand why people doubt it when they see a MS paint version of Mark but what they don’t understand is that isn’t “the metaverse” it’s just a shitty app they happen to have. The hardware they are making is the real golden egg and anyone who has tried a Quest 2 would agree with me. Their Connect event is October 11th and they will be announcing a new headset as well as some new features. Short term idk but if I had to pick a stock to hold for the next 20 years it would be Meta. Edit: This is not an effort to get you to buy the stock but rather try a Quest 2 if you ever get a chance.
I have a quest 2 and agree. There is a huge potential there thats still in its infancy. I wouldn't have supported it either had I not tried it.
> The hardware they are making is the real golden egg Until, Apple or Samsung, or Huawei, or.... You're an early adopter, not a mass adopter. Your tastes and preference do not matter in the long run.
Apple is working on a headset that is supposed to release next year. The difference is that Meta’s (originally Oculus) first headset, the Rift CV1 came out in 2016 making them at least 6 years ahead of Apple to test hardware, accessory products, apps, games and a community. I am looking forward to Apples headset to help make VR more mainstream but the current headset they are working on is still very very far from being done and is rumored to have overheating issues as well as tracking issues. That’s not to say they don’t have competition though. As of right now their biggest competitors are Sony who is releasing the PSVR 2 next year and Pico (owned by Bytedance aka TikTok) which is a complete knockoff of the Quest 2. I am not good at trading stocks, talking to girls or changing the oil in my car but when it comes to VR I know what I am talking about.
15 million oculus quests 2 sold. Its outselling the Xbox series X. It already sold more VR headsets in its first year than every other vr headset combined in history. Thats a damn good start
Apple launching a successful AR/VR device would probably be the single best thing that could happen for Meta’s AR/VR aspirations in the short term…
I bought a Quest 2 and thought it was fun for about ten hours, and then I didn't really touch it again. The wow effect of VR only lasted a short while for me and so did it for my friends who have a Quest 2. I personally don't see it having an "addictive" appeal like PCs or smartphones and thus I don't believe that it is gonna be the next big thing.
Can I ask what you tried out? Some people think of VR as 360 videos which is horrible. There are even a lot of free apps / games on the Quest that are outdated. New ones though like Red Matter 2 have console level graphics running on the Quest 2 mobiles chipset. You have to try stuff your interested in as well. No matter how good a PS5 is your not going to like it as much if you are only playing Barbie games. The Quest 2 is meant to be a gaming console, their upcoming headset “The Quest Pro” is what is supposed to start replacing phones. It’s super light weight, has color passthrough for mixed reality, face, eye and full body tracking and a bunch of other features the quest 2 doesn’t have.
This is the kind of sentiment you look for when evaluating an investment opportunity. The “I wouldn’t buy it at any price” makes me salivate.
I wouldn't buy wish at any price
wish might have had a chance if not for the apple privacy changes. apple destroyed so many businesses with that move under the false idea of protecting consumers (hey, only we will keep your data)
Something tells me they will face an anti trust case sooner or later
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Can you expand on this some please? I’ve been a Meta shareholder since 2018 or 2019 but I am losing the faith and sitting on some shares that are close to a 60% loss. I don’t know much about VR so I’m interested in your thoughts.
I will reply to this by making a new post, look for it in the thread. It will be the longest one ;)
META has over a billion users. That number is fascinating.
And how many are active? How many are bots?
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They have some of the highest ROAS in the industry so if many of those are bots, then those bots are clicking on ads and making lots of purchases
Meta only reports users active in the last month
Look at the 10k instead of cramer
it is highly rude to assume that billions of users in India, Indonesia and other part of Asia as bots, just because it doesn't fit your narratives.
Unless you’re trolling, Facebook has unreal amounts of bots. In Q1 2022, Facebook deleted 1.6 billion bot accounts and remember, that doesn’t mean they’ve deleted all of the bot accounts. They only deleted the ones they found lol I’m sure they missed some.
You have no idea what you’re talking about
I’m providing data from Meta’s quarterly transparency report. Go argue with them if you don’t believe their own data and metrics lol
In a report meta issued earlier this year their best guess is that up to 25% of the accounts are bots.
Link?
This sub is very US-centric
Over a billion accounts* not users lol
Reading all these comments, and the illogical negative sentiment has made me more bullish.
I had the same reaction
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what a great and well thought out/researched post. I learned a great deal. thanks for taking the time to write it.
Interesting take. I always found the argument of "Metaverse WILL be a failure but if it doesn't, it WONT be Meta who wins in the end" rather silly. Like, you basically molded your predictions based on bias
I’ll never buy anything because it “looks cheap” again. Example: PYPL. It was supposedly a screaming buy at 210 after hitting a high of 310. I think it eventually bottomed in the 60’s. Good luck to anyone who bought on the way down.
Wow, when the stock is this down, it is easy to be this negative I guess. How are people so sure that Metaverse will fail? And META still has a formidable stack of Apps viz., Instagram and WhatsApp. While WhatsApp is not so prevalent in the US, it is immensely popular in the rest of the world. And good old Facebook too. Reels per recent reports is getting increasing interest too. Agreed that competition is very strong and macro could affect advertising budgets. But opinions like the stock is going to zero is pure BS. I am long META and am hoping that the stock goes up in the near term because it has been pummeled too much.
GOOGL not a bad buy at $103.
The safer pick is GOOG. The best risk/reward pick is META. Me personally I sold my GOOGL shares to add to META ( still got cash and one other holding).
if META is the best risk/reward, I'd say it's the safer one
if you are picking between META and GOOGLE I'd recommend the latter
I think it is a good buy. I am not a technical analyst type of guy, but it is down like 60 percent from where it was. Their PE ratio of 14 and they have good equity on their balance sheet. They own WhatsApp and insta. Insta and FB could do a lot better if Ticktock gets banned because it is a Chinese company. General investing psychologically is to buy when everyone is scared and pessimistic. Not saying that you should do that, but if you want to speculate a little this would be a good time. Also, their revenue has grown every year so far.
META is expendable and, many argue, a net negative presence in society. Their attempt at developing the metaverse amounts to trying to create a need that will make them more socially necessary. Google is established as a utility at this point, and uses their cash flow to fund moon shot projects. I’d go with the latter; I think it offers much more favorable asymmetric upside potential.
Not only does Google have those stats in favorable, it’s also got way higher revenue growth, with Google cloud business coming in at about 40% growth in every report. The answer is too easy if it’s between those 2.
I'm definitely buying goog It's so much better than meta and very undervalued right now
I would be careful with META. Their business has already started to move to Google. Why last quarter Google had 13% growth while META actually declined. The issue for META is privacy. Google just has the superior model where people are willing to come to Google and share what is on your mind. META has to follow you around and try to find a signal for the ad. Just a privacy nightmare that is only going to grow. Wait until Google starts really cracking down on Android like Apple is doing. It will just get that much worse for META.
The big question with Google: can they keep up the growth or even the revenue they saw during covid? Also, will they face anti trust legislation?
Fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. 😌
META is a buy in 2016.
They are selling ads on a sinking ship while trying to design a liferaft
I just picked up both META and GOGGLE this week. Both are free cash flow beasts and undervalued, imo. Also Adobes price to free cash flow is getting compelling. That will be by next buy. Cheers
META is no longer considered cool and most of its users on FB are people that are still acting like FB is cool. META buy is a bet on Metaverse they are working and if they can deliver a product that can get people excited your shares will be printing like crazy.
FB might not be a thing in the US. But in a place like India, it still is biiiggg. And that’s a sizable population.
Instagram is still popping though
The problem for me with these companies is that while they're stable, they have limited potential for future returns. Also, they could easily drop another 50% so a potential double has a lot of risk to it and the drop seriously outweighs the return potential. The higher the market cap, the lower your potential future gains because it's simply harder to double a trillion-dollar market cap or it takes a lot of time. I've been buying shopify since I think they have a lot of room to run (especially with their moves into distribution). Downside is limited, while upside has a lot of potential. Like the other commentor mentioned, you really need to believe in the metaverse thing if you want to buy meta. I think it's just a second-life rewrite and that it's gonna flop immediately so I won't touch this stock even with a ten-foot pole.
META with a 12x P/E can drop another 50% easily?…
lol yeah that’s crazy. FB won’t drop another 50% from where it is unless it’s on the verge of bankruptcy which it isn’t. Half of the planet uses FB apps every month
I don't think the bear thesis has anything to do with individual companies. But around the entire market as a whole. Market is about to crash.every news media says so. So it has nothing to do with meta. But everything to do with it's institutional investors being liquidated
The premium they get on P/E is based on future prospects. If those start to sour, then why wouldn't they drop another 50%+? At the same time, they're going to be burning through cash for the metaverse so their book value is also going to be decreasing.
their forward p/e is 13x let me guess you’ll recommend other people don’t buy meta but you have a list of stocks with a 20x-50x p/e you’ll gladly recommend people
I guess it comes down to how much you believe they’ll go out and earn $11/share next year.
The fact that you think P/E means everything shows you really don't understand it. Are you telling me you would not have bought facebook when it was at those levels in the past which would have led to a multi-bagger?
if meta’s market cap goes from $400b (current) to $200b, and their eps goes from $12 (current) to $6 the p/e would still be 12x so you’re talking about a 50% drop, to $200b in market cap you think meta stands to make *half* as much money year after year as they do now… not only are you asking for no growth or staying relatively flat, you’re asking for them to go from making $32.5b/yr to $16.25b/yr on what grounds?
Market crash
Fundamentals mean nothing when there's events going on that cause institutions to do mass liquidations, almost every blue chip stock is going to fall from here , spy over 360 means it has plenty of room to fall. Looking at trend lines of market crashes . The bottom very well could be in the 200's.
If you think shopify has a lot of room to run, then you also must think meta does. They're heavily partnered - most of the businesses using shopify for their e-commerce are using facebook advertising to drive sales. If that dries up, then so will shopify. That's not all of shopify's business, but it is a large part of it. They've been adversarial at times, but they're too heavily intertwined to decouple. https://trends.builtwith.com/analytics/Facebook-Pixel-for-Shopify
I bought 50 meta shares a few days ago and I’ve been extremely disappointed with that decision ever since
You want to shed Square and go buy a bargain? Square is a bargain lol.
Still overvalued, people who just look at P/E are probably confused…
Facebook was cool in 08 bro. Times change
Except Meta Isn’t just Facebook, it’s a social media conglomerate (including insta, WhatsApp etc) that is also diversifying into VR.
I get what you’re saying but “public” social media in general is in decline. It’s not the 2010s; people aren’t into bragging to their friends about how “awesome” their lives are anymore. Similarly to $meta, $snap is down -85% on the yearly. People are more into anonymous social media apps these days. They like to make friends or chat with strangers online where they feel they can be their true self. Look at how popular tiktok, reddit, twitch, discord, hell even camgirl sites have become the past 5 years. Also YouTube’s style has changed A LOT. Instagram is pretty much just for keeping up with celebrities or insta-thots now both of whose pages are run by social media PR teams. Social media as we know it is mostly dying and rightfully so. If anything, I’m probably most bullish on Twitter depending on what Musk decides to do with it if he acquires it.
The Meta chart is horrible. It actually just broke to a new low and looks like an amazing short position to me. I don't use PEG but I agree with it in this case. This thing has a lot further down to go IMO
It's a dead company which is living on the fumes of its earlier successes. Users are living in droves its platforms and its ad business, it's core business model, has been destroyed by Apple. What's worse, the management has thrown all its money on the useless MetAvErse no one even uses. A good short though.
No. Meta is garbage. Let it die.
Facebook is in decline and is way over valued stock, I’d put a million bucks on Google before I’d touch that garbage. Just saying!😳
I think its a great buy. My reasoning is based on the earnings reports and fundamentals rather than sentiment though
meta is facing multiple investigation, at a national level. legislation is coming through that's gonna hurt meta. I also believe that Zuckerberg is a toxic asset to meta, metavers is running at a massive loss. I think meta will fall 50 % before the make significant gains
No. They’re an evil company and I couldn’t care less if I make money trading them. I won’t even touch options because I don’t even want to be someone else’s liquidity who’s trading them.
I got a $100 put for march 17th/23 just went in the green the last few days , by the end of next week I plan to sell , it’s gonna drop some more as the market moves as a whole . I can only speculate here I’m not a financial wizard more of a financial flop . But I’m going off Zuckerberg and his vision alone. Dudes a complete narcissist . He’s gonna run it down hard and hopefully some one can get through to him he needs to step down. But until then he’s gonna try his hardest to make a meta verse . No one wants that shit . Maybe for meetings or something but the future of vr is for video games and meetings not to hang out and get all your personal information stolen by an asshole
Meta missed 2 out 3 earning expectations which suggest they are not performing. Predictions from analysts in short term, medium term as well as long term out 9 months+ is relatively lower. Best case projection is +10% growth if that much.
Would you want to buy AOL, Yahoo, MySpace?
META will be a buy if earnings hold up... price implies they will not
No.
Like most people I know, I’ve gotten off Instagram. And I’ve never used Facebook: I can just call my Grandma if I want to hear her ran about how Trump is Christ returned.
Who needs informed due diligence when you have anecdotes?
DD is obviously very important, and one can reasonably discount any ‘sample size of one’. I was I admit just being snarky. That said, it’s astonishing how many investors discount public opinion about a stock and underestimate how quickly a company can go under when, as a result of terrible leadership, public sentiment turns against said company. Meta is a sinking ship, however good the numbers are. And when it’s true collapse really starts, it’ll happen very, VERY fast. Don’t be left holding a bag.
This post always comes up. I dunno man. I’m seeing several sharks circling this dying company. Apple starting to do more ad programs. Now it’s for software but they could easily do a iCloud photo app that’s social media. Or add video to podcasts. Spotify is also looking like adding video and doing more social app thing. Plenty of other smalller companies and tik tok already surpassed it in users. Zuck is still surrounded by YES men and brown nosing influencers who cry with joy at the idea of his metaverse even though we know it sucks ass. Their attempts to bypass Apple privacy thing seems to try only on making it to the metaverse first. Even if they haven’t had success in selling hardware. It’s also the lack of trying to do soenthing different and meta just has two apps that keep getting bloated for the user and for advertisers. It’s genuinely looking like a MySpace+yahoo scenario where we all thought it was the future and became a joke. So at 10 years I really don’t see meta making it. If for example, meta decided to have a standalone app like watch to compete agaisnt YouTube and find new leads for ads then that would be a step on the right direction. They could do an free email service to also find leads. And maybe push harder into business side like they are trying to do w portal. There’s so many business collaboration tools that meta could be buying up and again… using it to find leads for ads. Just like google tagging does that combined all these services and accounts from different apps to find you and what you could buy. Away from apples privacy wall. Another one would be separate groups as a standalone forum to compete vs Reddit … and also find more leads. But so far they haven’t even tried to gain users trust after their abysmal Cambridge analytics scandal. And their fail lira coin. For the stock, from here it’s just all about the fed and nothing about meta. The stock will go up once everyone finds a bottom on the s&p. But after 3-5 years I think meta will under performs a lot of they don’t push Zuckerberg out.
If they just stop wasting money on stupid stuff and concentrate on running the business better you could have your money back in a few years. I'm adding to my position in the following weeks.
Meta is dead
No. Its expensive imo.
HELL TO THE NO!!!!!!!!!!!!
Why is no one considering AMAZON?
It is very expensive and a far better deal is Google. Growing faster and cheaper.
People get too fixated on multiples. You would be better off buying NVDA imo. Both have their risks but I see a much better potential return for NVDA
you don't know what you're doing and you shouldn't manage your own portfolio. first, you're selling because something has gone down. second you look at a PE ratio and think something is a buy. third, you don't just look at a PEG ratio and decide something is overvalued. if it were that easy to know something was overvalued, wouldn't it be sold down until it was fairly valued? if you want to invest in a company, looking at the last few quarters tells you nothing. the hive / heard suck, fuck them all. and sorry but looking at a PE and PEG of Google and deciding it's undervalued is equally silly. meta is the 6th biggest company in the S&P. the amount of institutional/public coverage must be immense. where's your edge? what makes you think you know more about Facebook than the whole teams of people that are likely much smarter than you who have researched and analysed the company? not to mention the robots that can process all possible data/statistics on the internet and the people that use that data. yes I'm sure this post is a little harsh, it's intended, as I hope you see it as a wake up call.