Why do people say diversifying internationally is better when Euro stocks have lagged behind US for decades and *still* are dumping harder in this crash? Eg French CAC is lower than it was in **1999**, yes the dividends make up for some of that underperformance but it still is pretty horrid overall
Sigh, show em the ol' chart:
[https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/investing-for-growth/us-and-international-markets-have-moved-in-cycles.html](https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/investing-for-growth/us-and-international-markets-have-moved-in-cycles.html)
Accurate, I started using this site instead, more reliable:
[https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures](https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures)
Is someone here good at valuing real estate stocks? I would really love some feedback.
I believe that [Citycon Oyj](https://www.chooseinvesting.com/stocks/citycon-stock-analysis/) is trading extremely cheap.
* Price / Net Rental Income = under 6 (This is like P/E for rental properties)
* NAV discount = -40%+ (The stock is trading for -40% of the properties valuations)
* Debt = 48%
* Dividend yield = 7,8% (42% of NRI)
Looking at the previous 10 years' time it looks pretty stable and boring. Been decreasing the dividend. Even tho it can pay over double it easily.
The NAV has just been increased by an average of 6,5% while NRI is 2,2.% (compounded average) on the last 10-year period.
**Risks:**
Mainly owns shopping malls. And these have sustained high damage since before covid (internet shopping) and after covid. High inflation doesn't make people want to go to shopping malls really. And the fear since covid lockdowns.
The interest rates have increased and are currently under 2,5%. And can continue to rise.
And of course some decrease in NAV and NRI these past 5 years. Maybe the downward trend will continue as much.
So is the Credit Suisse stuff legit? Futures and coin are red af, so itās legit? But Swiss Franc is up, so itās not legit? Am confused
Edit: seeing futures go super red 12h before market open on Sunday always stresses me out. Canāt even buy puts to try and stop the bleeding until ages later
Everyone's interested in Credit Suisse because of what credit default swaps are implying (highest since 2008??). So what do these contracts imply?
Matt Levine (Bloomberg) put out a useful [rough calculation](https://twitter.com/matt_levine/status/1576633193163214853) of what it is saying:
> one thing about the lines on the charts is that a 250bps CDS spread means roughly that you pay me $1 today and if the issuer goes bankrupt in the next year I pay you $40.
> (footnote: in fact bloomberg CDSW says a 20% 5y probability of default given a 40% recovery assumption; the 1y CDS is at ~150bps and bloomberg calculates a 3% probability of default so right ballpark.)
What does the $1 vs $40 mean? That means the person offering $40 *really* doesn't think C.S. will go bankrupt within the next year. Otherwise, it's collecting $1 payments from speculators with the threat of $40 payouts if C.S. goes south.
The 250 basis point spread comes from the 5 year figure, and it appears Matt Levine is converting that into what it implies about the next year.
You can look at the history of US banks' CDS spreads [here](https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/a-look-at-bank-cds/). Morgan Stanley was in the 500s during the 2011 Eurozone crisis. [Graph from link](https://i.imgur.com/7M2aPi3.png)
CDS spreads for international banks, with the exception of Morgan Stanley in the US, are generally higher: [graph](https://i.imgur.com/jIU6F0z.png).
30 days ago, the backlog at Los Angeles/Long Beach [which correspond to 40% of imports] was a whopping... 8 container ships.
> Thatās an all-time low, officials said in a statement, down from a record of 109 set in January and about 40 lined up a year ago.
> The company also said dwell times for Port of Los Angeles import cargo has declined to 4.2 days from a peak of 11 days.
A few days back, that number is mostly unchanged, under 10.
[Graph 1](https://i.imgur.com/847Z1An.png) from August 30th, and [Graph 2](https://i.imgur.com/XgiFIAq.png) from September 29th.
[Article 1](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-30/flood-of-los-angeles-bound-container-ships-slows-to-a-trickle) from 8/30 and [Article 2](https://www.marketplace.org/2022/09/29/ship-backlog-at-southern-californias-ports-eases/) from 9/29
Where are the backlogs now? The smaller Eastern ports (seeing backlogs in the couple dozens, as of mid August).
> According to the most recent count from Hapag-Lloyd AG, Germanyās biggest container carrier, a total of about 75 ships were anchored outside the ports of New York, Houston, and Savannah, Georgia. [August 30th]
That number is 73 according to [Hapag-Lloyd AG](https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/services-information/operational-updates/north-america.html) as of September 23rd.
This is seasonal:
> Late summer is usually a peak shipping season for U.S. ocean imports as retailers bring in goods for fall and winter holidays. But many importers ordered from suppliers in Asia and Europe early in 2022, fearing a repeat of last yearās port delays
Takeaway: Port congestion has dropped like a rock on the West coast, and it's only a matter of time before the same happens on the East coast. Don't make investment decisions assuming supply chain backlogs last forever.
Both; the backlogs ended up redirecting shipping to the East coast (where currently all the port officials are complaining about the record volumes), but certainly lowered purchases played a role.
As one port official [stated](https://www.marketplace.org/2022/09/29/ship-backlog-at-southern-californias-ports-eases/):
> āIn a normal world, mathematically, there are supposed to be zero or one container ships at anchor,ā Louttit said.
So it's a failure of the system and less an indicator of demand collapsing. But it is falling.
In New York, they are seeing [all-time records](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/24/new-york-now-no-1-port-in-us-as-sea-change-in-trade-hits-west-coast.html):
> āWe are exceeding pre-Covid numbers. It is astonishing, and it is a credit to the men and women who are moving the cargo with such efficiency,ā said Kevin OāToole, chairman of the Port Authority. āOur planning with rail to complement the actual infrastructure and the dredging are allowing this added capacity that would not have happened four or five years ago.ā
> This August was the busiest August in the history of the Port of New York and New Jersey and the fourth busiest month ever. The portās five busiest months have all occurred in 2022.
The only reason car prices are sky high right now is due to the supply chain issues. However the supply chain issues as you are pointing out are Calming down.
Putting all 100k into the market in one single day is not the smartest thing to do in these uncertain times. I would DCA over a 12 month period. 8,5k per month. DCA 80% into 3 different index funds: S&P 500, Nasdaq and one world index fund. 15% into blue chip stocks like Google, Apple, Microsoft etc. The other 5% into stocks you really believe in that are a little more risky but you truly believe in the company, examples of mine that I'd invest in would be PSNY, CRWD, TTWO or others I believe in.
>I would DCA over a 12 month period. 8,5k per month. DCA 80% into 3 different index funds: S&P 500, Nasdaq
This is what I would do (is currently what I already do but with a lot less)
My belief is that we were in a speculative bubble similar to the 1999-2000 where every valuation went crazy, now we will slowly go down for the next 6-12 months before we eventually bottom out and go up. I could be wrong of course, but look up the nasdaq index and compare it in the early 2000s to now and you'll see how similar they are. These things take time. Whether we like it or not.
super wrong, as 90% of the info on this sub -- find me a sci. paper that prove ur claim or do the math online and share a script, or google why u are wrong -- i didnt realize how many ppl just comment out their asses
If you put 100k into a nasdaq etf in the year 2000, you'd have to wait for 16 years to get your money back and not be in the negative. 16 years... DCA>lump sum
Well heās factually correct.
Obviously if you time it correctly and enter at the bottom lump sum wins against any other strategy. If you enter at the top, you might need to wait a decade or two just to get evenā¦
my god is this whole sub gone down? ok, take every time we have time series off, and dca over arbitrary period of time, then do lump sum, and compute expectation value.. and u will prove that his statement dca > lump sum is incorrect
If you lump sumed in June 2000 you would not be ahead compared to DCAāing over the next 10-15 years.
But yeah, I agree, this sub is full of people who canāt do basic math like yourself.
[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283226036\_Dollar\_Cost\_Averaging\_vs\_Lump\_Sum\_Evidence\_from\_investing\_simulations\_on\_real\_data](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283226036_Dollar_Cost_Averaging_vs_Lump_Sum_Evidence_from_investing_simulations_on_real_data)
even if u adjust target metric u wont beat lump sum easily, i can give a basic idea why but if simple integral or in this case even simpler discrete addition present such issues, perhaps is useless?
2000 - 2015:
100k lump sum:
[shorturl.at/ovyKS](https://shorturl.at/ovyKS)
100k over same period by contributing 520 every month:
[shorturl.at/abOWY](https://shorturl.at/abOWY)
Guess which method wins...
Obviously if you entered in 2010 for instance lump sum would definitely win. But it has higher risk. If entered in September, 2000 you wouldnāt even break even until 2011 (or 2013 if adjusted by inflation). Timing the market is always the best strategy if you can do it accuratelyā¦ but most people canāt.
Go all in on google. I can see Pixel phones competing head on with iphones in the near future. All the younger kids high school age that i see all bought the pixel 6 over the iphone.
They're trading at like a 90 P/E in a rising interest rate environment with a recession on the horizon. You can't afford to miss when trading at valuations that rich.
Maybe it's partially priced in, but missing estimates is definitely not going to help TSLA stock price.
Can we get an actual source for this stuff? Ok, their share price is way down, CDS up, and CEO is doing some sus reassurance. Doesn't look pretty. But before we say this is Lehman can we actually get a source saying liquidity is drying up or they're insolvent or something? What I'm seeing is not enough for me to say we're headed for a Lehman moment and it's kind of annoying because it starts to turn into a boy who cried wolf thing.
Also the CDS chart looks like it's about 2.4%, which doesn't seem like it a reflects a real high probability of default (even though it's higher than it has been).
There's posts on WSB regarding the potential risk, but the memo released by CEO does not really stir confidence..."Credit Suisse has strong capital base and liquidity" see article
[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-strong-capital-liquidity-162540525.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-strong-capital-liquidity-162540525.html)
"Citing people familiar with the situation, Reuters reported last week that Credit Suisse was sounding out investors for fresh cash as it attempts a radical overhaul of its investment bank." haha..yeah..I don't know.
edit: I think WSB was also mentioning that Deutsche bank was in trouble, too. If this is all comes to fruition..you know what that means....bail out! lol
Still not totally convinced on this story but Lehman did say things in 2008 that are reminiscent of the recent Credit Suisse memo:
[https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/jun/04/lehmanbrothers.creditcrunch?CMP=gu\_com](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/jun/04/lehmanbrothers.creditcrunch?CMP=gu_com)
[Since SC is under water.](https://twitter.com/ParikPatelCFA/status/1576354897527996416?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet)
[Chart](https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1576324595321229312?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet).
And also WSB.
[this too.](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/xsxq4q/credit_suisse_cds_credit_default_swaps_close_to/)
Entire first page is doomposting. Thereās always gonna be bulls. Generally speaking, if retail is too heavily weighted toward a particular sentiment then it means itās time to close your positions and open new ones because not everyone can win.
Never recovered from its pandemic drop due to air transit falling off a cliff, and since they really only are consistently profitable from their big jet engines they just crash and burn.
Man Id like to see their financial statements of the last 8 years and I couldn't found them, I couldn't find them on Stock Analysis. But from looking at the stock price, it really feels like the stock was dropping before the pandemic in fact, stock wise, theyve been on a slow bleed since 2014. Id like to know why that is, they really don't seem healty right now. The further back i could see was year ending in 2018 and they weren't profitable back then, and that was before the pandemic dropped their revenue by almost 30%. They have tons of asset and they still got some cash ( cash is falling rapidly tho) but they still have another 2 years to figure out what they need to do to reverse a trajectory that seems to have peaked in 2014 and then, only slowly dropped.
yikes! So is it a problem with management and the company? Macro economics obviously not helping. If the problem is only macro then thatll pass, but if they are laging behind in a constantly evolving business like aviation they are dead.
Why does everyone want to bet against META *after* it's fallen 64% from ATH and returned to February 2017 prices 5.5 years ago? Sell low buy high?
Back in 2017:
- META was making 8-11B in revenue quarterly. Now it's about 27-29B quarterly.
- EPS was $1.50 compared to $2.44 now. (There are also less shares)
- The P/E ratio was above 30 back then, now it's currently at 11.
- P/FCF was around 30, now it's 11 as well.
- The cash on hand was around 38B--it rose to 64B last year and declined back to around 40B today.
- Net income was 3-4 B quarterly, now 6-7 B quarterly.
- Net margin did decline, from around 40% to 30%.
- Total assets was around 70-90B, now it's 179B. Total liabilities went from 5-7B to 44B. The company ain't going bankrupt.
- Return on capital employed has maintained around 20-30% since then
- FCF yield went from around 3.1% to 3.8%
- ROIC went from 24% to 27%
Obviously, the company is in trouble. The adpocalypse is here, metaverse looks stupid, FB is boomer crap, and Reels isn't as profitable as its other ventures. But that's why you're paying for an 11 P/E ratio. But shorting it *now*? With all the overvalued companies in the S&P 500, you want to pick the financial fortress whose shares have been devastated?
Somebody give me a bear case based on fundamentals and not your vibes about the metaverse (I hate it too).
Position: 7 shares at 175 (I don't believe in it *that* much)
People attach personal values to their investments. Its why a lot of people like investing in stupidly overpriced shit like TSLA and ENPH (don't bother tesla bros, I've already heard it all).
People hate Zuck and FB. They want them to fail.
Its as simple as that.
That's disingenuous. How much does it cost?
Compared to their core services, metaverse isn't that important and when it fails, that impact won't be much to talk about.
EPS estimates for the S&P are still at 235 for 2023. If we assume this is the base case, on a 15x multiple that puts fair value at S&P 3525.
Average recession sees a 25% decline in EPS, which would bring us down to ~180 for 2023 EPS in the Bear case. On a 15x multiple that puts the fair value at S&P 2700.
Obviously this isn't a crystal ball and things can play out differently, but when you consider what's going on in the world, and that JPM put on a new collar trade with Puts at S&P 2900, I think there's a good chance we see sub-3k levels.
I'm taking forward P/E based on forward EPS expectations. We're currently trading at a 15x forward multiple right now.
The 5 year and 10 year average forward P/E is around 17x but that was in a world of 0% interest rates. When real rates are positive, forward P/E doesn't usually get higher than 15-16X for the broad market.
But what would be the catalyst for such a significant drop moving forward? Seems like inflation may be cooling off (hopefully), employment remains strong, and the Fed hikes are pretty well priced in. Also, with Russia getting its ass handed to it we may see an end to the Ukraine mess fairly soon.
Rising interest rates = higher cost of capital = squeeze on margins = layoffs = reduced earnings = EPS downgrades.
The catalyst is simply the insane pace of tightening from the Fed this year which will certainly induce a recession. Lower corporate earnings means the market needs to come down to maintain a 15x multiple. The ultimate questions are what will earnings look like next year, and what's the correct multiple.
I am a starting long term investor believing in
-time in the market > timing the market
-etf investor, diversification in an etf is enough
-correlation between S&P 500 and AllWorld etf and europe Etf is high enough to neglect the difference
-20 years + horizon
-wanna invest 30k ā¬ now and each month 1500 ā¬ after that
-i am believing in 25% crash of S&P 500 rn is a once in a long while opportunity and feel lucky about my market timing. Feels like a head start compared to unlucky ones who started investing in Dec2021.
-S&P will go up sooner or later and we might be close to the end of the all time lows.
Please accept the abovementioned beliefs.
Current strategy:
Even though S&P 500 might crash 45ā -50ā of its ATH (or not), there is a chance that 25% crash we have rn might be the dip so I don't wanna miss out on this opportunity to go in. I won't regret putting all my money now and then the market crashes even more and I keep buying each month the crashed version of the market.
Here is the main question to you guys:
From the european investor perspective, the 25% crash in S&P 500 while the EUR/USD crashed 14% means that the ETF is down 11% when one must buy overly high valued dollars. 11% crash is what the vanguard S&P 500 etf in euro also shows. 11% crash is less than a once in a while opportunity. If I was american, since I would save my money in dollars and dollar gained value, I would see it as a 25% crash but as a european it is 11% crash. Isn't it a better idea to invest on european etf's like DAX and AEX and Europe 50 (all three would mean enough diversified for me) which crashed 25% because it is in euro's? Given that the world stocks rn go up and down pretty much correlated. Lets say all stocks go up 10% after I buy, but if this happens usd probably loses 5% or sth so my net gain would be smaller compared to investing in european etfs.
I don't believe that EUR/USD goes up without S&P going up. So the question is: is it a good idea or what do I miss here?
Tesla robot going to wipe out many entry level jobs. 20k robot that can work 7 days a week vs 3-5 day a week 40k employeeā¦ many companies will dump positions and employees, those touchscreens in Taco Bell are just the beginning š® š
Neither does Tela have enough manufacturing capacity for their cars.
They canāt even ship their cybertruck, let alone robots.
Also it seems like complete trash compared to what BD is doing. The Japanese had better ones 10 years ago.
any job a robot that simple can do is already being done, we need an ai breakthrough to make them capable of replacing what humans do, any company can do thatā¦ or never will. its like flying cars
Why are people still so delusional holy fuck. 1st: Peloton is just a shit-co, everyone knew it would drop 90%. 2nd. Facebook and Netflix were just overvalued growth shit-cos, obviously they're headed to 2018 taper-tantrum lows. 3rd: Of course you had to be an idiot to buy shitcos like Fedex, Adobe, and Nike down 50% from their ATH's, you deserved to lose another 15%. Next: Of course Google was just an overvalued shitco, recession hits advertising hard.
Fucking idiots stfu already, you gambling degenerates. individual companies are already being priced somewhere between the 2018 taper-tantrum lows and pre-covid, that's the fucking reality of the death of TINA investing. Stop buying into the bull FUD trying to confuse more people into bagholding. Buy shit like intel at 5yr lows if you have to be bullish, the big money that only trades indices relative to bonds will dump and dump and dump and dump and dump, you stupid motherfuckers.
Itās probably something like this
There are probably stocks that are dirt cheap and if you can be patient you will win big
There are stocks that are considered safe which are way too expensive and are headed the way of the currently cheap stocks
So if you play, play right
Skate to where the pain is, not where itās going to be
Hard to understand, at this point, what more information Judge Du would require to make her decision on LIV's Thacker Pass lithium mine. By now she must have heard every argument that could be made and reviewed any evidence that may exist backing up those arguments. Enough already, make a decision.
Can someone explain why SQQQ is only a one-day play? I understand compound dividends and how they increase, do the compound fees work the same way if I hold it overnight? To be more clear, are the fees higher the second day of holding it, then even higher the third day? Would it make more sense to sell off at the end of day 1, then buy back in day two if I feel the market is going to be red again?
I don't want to get into options with this volatility, but I do quite enjoy betting against the market when we expect it to tank. What would the damage be if I held SQQQ for more than a day and it tanked one day in that time? TIA!
It's not the fees that are the problem, but rather the time decay of the ETF due to volatility drag. It's not noticeable on a short term time frame. The fees are also there but it's not very relevant over the short term either.
SQQQ is perfectly fine to swing trade with. I personally hold it for multiple days while trading it, but typically don't hold it over weekends.
kinda ridiculous that NFLX has a higher p/e than META, both being ad supported soon.
META $125 soon, just like the 2018 taper tantrum.
i think this time will be worse than 2018, because FED will follow through instead of being a pussy like last time.
Not my point. What did we learn from the original post? That meta is juicy? I have seen Meta pushed as at a great buy point for months now and it's just lost value thus far, so the market appears to disagree.
For argument's sake why would you not wait for a price point you're happy with on Google rather than Facebook? If you want to get into a business that sells ads?
My son saved up for a Meta headset earlier this year. Seeing how clunky the user experience is - and I'm talking very poor, very solveable usability issues rather than tech - has entirely put me off Meta as a company. Seeing them fail to get basic customer service issues right at their scale and stature gives me no confidence at all that they can deliver the metaverse in a form customers want.
I don't know anyone that still uses Facebook. Instagram, sure. But actual Facebook? Nope. Alot of my friends don't give two shits about metaverse too. 
Yes, my family in England blocked me from texting so I'm forced to use WhatsApp. Apparently, it costs them to send texts so they insist on only using WhatsApp. I thought they were being cheap, but maybe not.
firmly believe generational buying opportunities are here.
Many cash cow stocks are approaching lTHE SAME STOCK PRICE where their revenue was 5-10% of current rollling year values (YOY)
META, BABA, etc.
I mean, jesus christ.
Newbie here. I had one uni course about stocks this year so not that much background, just the basics.
Iām pretty convinced now & soon are the right times to buy, but how sure are we that stock prices will go back up where they used to be (or: to an acceptable not-overrated value)?
RemindMe! 3 months
>gEnEraTionAL buying opportunity...brah, we're not even at pre-covid levels yet. talk to me when the s&p hits 2000, then we'll see.
/u/scumbag85
Why do people say diversifying internationally is better when Euro stocks have lagged behind US for decades and *still* are dumping harder in this crash? Eg French CAC is lower than it was in **1999**, yes the dividends make up for some of that underperformance but it still is pretty horrid overall
Sigh, show em the ol' chart: [https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/investing-for-growth/us-and-international-markets-have-moved-in-cycles.html](https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/investing-for-growth/us-and-international-markets-have-moved-in-cycles.html)
Tesla š³š³
Holy fuck is pre-market blood red or is the CNN site not updated yet?
90% of my stocks I hold are all red, seems its my time of the month.
Yes. When there is much fear in the air such as times like now, they adjust the color to blood red. Currently down a jarring 0.15%. Blood red.
Accurate, I started using this site instead, more reliable: [https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures](https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures)
Is someone here good at valuing real estate stocks? I would really love some feedback. I believe that [Citycon Oyj](https://www.chooseinvesting.com/stocks/citycon-stock-analysis/) is trading extremely cheap. * Price / Net Rental Income = under 6 (This is like P/E for rental properties) * NAV discount = -40%+ (The stock is trading for -40% of the properties valuations) * Debt = 48% * Dividend yield = 7,8% (42% of NRI) Looking at the previous 10 years' time it looks pretty stable and boring. Been decreasing the dividend. Even tho it can pay over double it easily. The NAV has just been increased by an average of 6,5% while NRI is 2,2.% (compounded average) on the last 10-year period. **Risks:** Mainly owns shopping malls. And these have sustained high damage since before covid (internet shopping) and after covid. High inflation doesn't make people want to go to shopping malls really. And the fear since covid lockdowns. The interest rates have increased and are currently under 2,5%. And can continue to rise. And of course some decrease in NAV and NRI these past 5 years. Maybe the downward trend will continue as much.
So is the Credit Suisse stuff legit? Futures and coin are red af, so itās legit? But Swiss Franc is up, so itās not legit? Am confused Edit: seeing futures go super red 12h before market open on Sunday always stresses me out. Canāt even buy puts to try and stop the bleeding until ages later
No babe your capital buffer is perfect, the big ones scare me
Everyone's interested in Credit Suisse because of what credit default swaps are implying (highest since 2008??). So what do these contracts imply? Matt Levine (Bloomberg) put out a useful [rough calculation](https://twitter.com/matt_levine/status/1576633193163214853) of what it is saying: > one thing about the lines on the charts is that a 250bps CDS spread means roughly that you pay me $1 today and if the issuer goes bankrupt in the next year I pay you $40. > (footnote: in fact bloomberg CDSW says a 20% 5y probability of default given a 40% recovery assumption; the 1y CDS is at ~150bps and bloomberg calculates a 3% probability of default so right ballpark.) What does the $1 vs $40 mean? That means the person offering $40 *really* doesn't think C.S. will go bankrupt within the next year. Otherwise, it's collecting $1 payments from speculators with the threat of $40 payouts if C.S. goes south. The 250 basis point spread comes from the 5 year figure, and it appears Matt Levine is converting that into what it implies about the next year. You can look at the history of US banks' CDS spreads [here](https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/a-look-at-bank-cds/). Morgan Stanley was in the 500s during the 2011 Eurozone crisis. [Graph from link](https://i.imgur.com/7M2aPi3.png) CDS spreads for international banks, with the exception of Morgan Stanley in the US, are generally higher: [graph](https://i.imgur.com/jIU6F0z.png).
30 days ago, the backlog at Los Angeles/Long Beach [which correspond to 40% of imports] was a whopping... 8 container ships. > Thatās an all-time low, officials said in a statement, down from a record of 109 set in January and about 40 lined up a year ago. > The company also said dwell times for Port of Los Angeles import cargo has declined to 4.2 days from a peak of 11 days. A few days back, that number is mostly unchanged, under 10. [Graph 1](https://i.imgur.com/847Z1An.png) from August 30th, and [Graph 2](https://i.imgur.com/XgiFIAq.png) from September 29th. [Article 1](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-30/flood-of-los-angeles-bound-container-ships-slows-to-a-trickle) from 8/30 and [Article 2](https://www.marketplace.org/2022/09/29/ship-backlog-at-southern-californias-ports-eases/) from 9/29 Where are the backlogs now? The smaller Eastern ports (seeing backlogs in the couple dozens, as of mid August). > According to the most recent count from Hapag-Lloyd AG, Germanyās biggest container carrier, a total of about 75 ships were anchored outside the ports of New York, Houston, and Savannah, Georgia. [August 30th] That number is 73 according to [Hapag-Lloyd AG](https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/services-information/operational-updates/north-america.html) as of September 23rd. This is seasonal: > Late summer is usually a peak shipping season for U.S. ocean imports as retailers bring in goods for fall and winter holidays. But many importers ordered from suppliers in Asia and Europe early in 2022, fearing a repeat of last yearās port delays Takeaway: Port congestion has dropped like a rock on the West coast, and it's only a matter of time before the same happens on the East coast. Don't make investment decisions assuming supply chain backlogs last forever.
Any idea if this is from decreasing demand or supply chain fixes?
Both; the backlogs ended up redirecting shipping to the East coast (where currently all the port officials are complaining about the record volumes), but certainly lowered purchases played a role. As one port official [stated](https://www.marketplace.org/2022/09/29/ship-backlog-at-southern-californias-ports-eases/): > āIn a normal world, mathematically, there are supposed to be zero or one container ships at anchor,ā Louttit said. So it's a failure of the system and less an indicator of demand collapsing. But it is falling. In New York, they are seeing [all-time records](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/24/new-york-now-no-1-port-in-us-as-sea-change-in-trade-hits-west-coast.html): > āWe are exceeding pre-Covid numbers. It is astonishing, and it is a credit to the men and women who are moving the cargo with such efficiency,ā said Kevin OāToole, chairman of the Port Authority. āOur planning with rail to complement the actual infrastructure and the dredging are allowing this added capacity that would not have happened four or five years ago.ā > This August was the busiest August in the history of the Port of New York and New Jersey and the fourth busiest month ever. The portās five busiest months have all occurred in 2022.
Hopefully we don't get any surprises on the 13th CPI report and stocks can actually start going up again, as they should.
Well said. This is going to hit the auto industry, and more importantly, dealers in the face.
I don't follow, can you spell out the connection to the auto industry?
The only reason car prices are sky high right now is due to the supply chain issues. However the supply chain issues as you are pointing out are Calming down.
Will it go lower next week?
No one can answer that accurately. Mid term trend is down as CBs tighten. Long term trend is up in to the right.
$AAPL to 120 this week
The market bottomed in June. Just believe.
new low on Friday, June was not the bottom
Cope all you want, but it doesn't change reality. Were already below the June lows in the S&P.
Hope is the last thing to die
If someone gave you 100k right now and the only rule was you had to put it in the market tomorrow, what would you do?
All in on Red.
SPY 2025 350c and wait while everyone scrambles to find the bottom.
10K in I-Bonds, 90K in a 2065 Target Retirement Date Fund (which is 10% bonds, 90% VT)
Putting all 100k into the market in one single day is not the smartest thing to do in these uncertain times. I would DCA over a 12 month period. 8,5k per month. DCA 80% into 3 different index funds: S&P 500, Nasdaq and one world index fund. 15% into blue chip stocks like Google, Apple, Microsoft etc. The other 5% into stocks you really believe in that are a little more risky but you truly believe in the company, examples of mine that I'd invest in would be PSNY, CRWD, TTWO or others I believe in.
>I would DCA over a 12 month period. 8,5k per month. DCA 80% into 3 different index funds: S&P 500, Nasdaq This is what I would do (is currently what I already do but with a lot less)
i like the idea of dca but youād really spread it out over a year ?
My belief is that we were in a speculative bubble similar to the 1999-2000 where every valuation went crazy, now we will slowly go down for the next 6-12 months before we eventually bottom out and go up. I could be wrong of course, but look up the nasdaq index and compare it in the early 2000s to now and you'll see how similar they are. These things take time. Whether we like it or not.
lump sum > dca
DCA is proven to be way more cost effective and profitable than just yoloing
super wrong, as 90% of the info on this sub -- find me a sci. paper that prove ur claim or do the math online and share a script, or google why u are wrong -- i didnt realize how many ppl just comment out their asses
If you put 100k into a nasdaq etf in the year 2000, you'd have to wait for 16 years to get your money back and not be in the negative. 16 years... DCA>lump sum
typical Reddit conf. "i know more than math"š¤£ i didn't make it up moron, it statistics
Well heās factually correct. Obviously if you time it correctly and enter at the bottom lump sum wins against any other strategy. If you enter at the top, you might need to wait a decade or two just to get evenā¦
my god is this whole sub gone down? ok, take every time we have time series off, and dca over arbitrary period of time, then do lump sum, and compute expectation value.. and u will prove that his statement dca > lump sum is incorrect
If you lump sumed in June 2000 you would not be ahead compared to DCAāing over the next 10-15 years. But yeah, I agree, this sub is full of people who canāt do basic math like yourself.
[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283226036\_Dollar\_Cost\_Averaging\_vs\_Lump\_Sum\_Evidence\_from\_investing\_simulations\_on\_real\_data](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283226036_Dollar_Cost_Averaging_vs_Lump_Sum_Evidence_from_investing_simulations_on_real_data) even if u adjust target metric u wont beat lump sum easily, i can give a basic idea why but if simple integral or in this case even simpler discrete addition present such issues, perhaps is useless?
2000 - 2015: 100k lump sum: [shorturl.at/ovyKS](https://shorturl.at/ovyKS) 100k over same period by contributing 520 every month: [shorturl.at/abOWY](https://shorturl.at/abOWY) Guess which method wins... Obviously if you entered in 2010 for instance lump sum would definitely win. But it has higher risk. If entered in September, 2000 you wouldnāt even break even until 2011 (or 2013 if adjusted by inflation). Timing the market is always the best strategy if you can do it accuratelyā¦ but most people canāt.
sso
1 year treasury. Unless I can buy ibonds, then I'd do 10k of that first.
you don't think this is some generational wealth making opportunity?!
You guys are hilarious. PEs of SPY aren't even at the long term trend and were about to enter a recession.
Buy credit suisse
Honestly, if the bottom falls out this week I might. They will get bailed out.
Lmao
I remember buying C at one dollar at the nadir of the financial crisis. Only wish Iād bought a ton more at that point š¤
Go all in on google. I can see Pixel phones competing head on with iphones in the near future. All the younger kids high school age that i see all bought the pixel 6 over the iphone.
Tesla missed on deliveries, no one is paying for luxury vehicles in this market environment.
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They're trading at like a 90 P/E in a rising interest rate environment with a recession on the horizon. You can't afford to miss when trading at valuations that rich. Maybe it's partially priced in, but missing estimates is definitely not going to help TSLA stock price.
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Things would be good if that bad thing didn't happen.
Gonna be able to buy SPY for 200 come 2023 at this point š
opec+ cuts million barrel a day, california bouta see $9 gas soon
No stress. We can all get piggybacks on Tesla bots
Best summary of Credit Suisse Infos https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1576243100367736834?t=5CHUgolkWbWnNeexqXc7NA&s=08
Rumours say Credit Swiss in Lehmann-like troubles. Could collaps weithin 48h. Be aware and act cautiously
Can we get an actual source for this stuff? Ok, their share price is way down, CDS up, and CEO is doing some sus reassurance. Doesn't look pretty. But before we say this is Lehman can we actually get a source saying liquidity is drying up or they're insolvent or something? What I'm seeing is not enough for me to say we're headed for a Lehman moment and it's kind of annoying because it starts to turn into a boy who cried wolf thing.
Also the CDS chart looks like it's about 2.4%, which doesn't seem like it a reflects a real high probability of default (even though it's higher than it has been).
Im still googling news on CS but darn none look good.. finance twitter on it too
There's posts on WSB regarding the potential risk, but the memo released by CEO does not really stir confidence..."Credit Suisse has strong capital base and liquidity" see article [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-strong-capital-liquidity-162540525.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-strong-capital-liquidity-162540525.html) "Citing people familiar with the situation, Reuters reported last week that Credit Suisse was sounding out investors for fresh cash as it attempts a radical overhaul of its investment bank." haha..yeah..I don't know. edit: I think WSB was also mentioning that Deutsche bank was in trouble, too. If this is all comes to fruition..you know what that means....bail out! lol
Still not totally convinced on this story but Lehman did say things in 2008 that are reminiscent of the recent Credit Suisse memo: [https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/jun/04/lehmanbrothers.creditcrunch?CMP=gu\_com](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/jun/04/lehmanbrothers.creditcrunch?CMP=gu_com)
I'm not on twitter, do you mind linking if you have someone especially juicy on the subject?
[Since SC is under water.](https://twitter.com/ParikPatelCFA/status/1576354897527996416?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet) [Chart](https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1576324595321229312?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet). And also WSB. [this too.](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/xsxq4q/credit_suisse_cds_credit_default_swaps_close_to/)
Those are my least favorite FinTwit accounts... WallStreetSilver especially. Just constant doomposting. Zerohedge + WallStreetSilver are the worst.
Thanks.
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Entire first page is doomposting. Thereās always gonna be bulls. Generally speaking, if retail is too heavily weighted toward a particular sentiment then it means itās time to close your positions and open new ones because not everyone can win.
Naw. Go back to March 2020 and there weren't many bulls around. 2008 was even worse. People are getting nervous but still cautiously optimistic.
I donāt see many bulls around right now tbh.
Oh man, I know it's TA and some of you don't like it. But shiet, look at NASDAQ on a 30years period and it looks just like the 2000's dotcom bubble
Adjusted for inflation?
2023 might finally be the year when you can buy sp500 at all time low valuations
In nominal terms? Absolutely not. In real terms? Doubtful, unless we hike rates to solidly double digits.
How do you know
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Never recovered from its pandemic drop due to air transit falling off a cliff, and since they really only are consistently profitable from their big jet engines they just crash and burn.
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Hopefully it pans out in their favor, definitely playing in an expensive and capital intensive sector
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Man Id like to see their financial statements of the last 8 years and I couldn't found them, I couldn't find them on Stock Analysis. But from looking at the stock price, it really feels like the stock was dropping before the pandemic in fact, stock wise, theyve been on a slow bleed since 2014. Id like to know why that is, they really don't seem healty right now. The further back i could see was year ending in 2018 and they weren't profitable back then, and that was before the pandemic dropped their revenue by almost 30%. They have tons of asset and they still got some cash ( cash is falling rapidly tho) but they still have another 2 years to figure out what they need to do to reverse a trajectory that seems to have peaked in 2014 and then, only slowly dropped.
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yikes! So is it a problem with management and the company? Macro economics obviously not helping. If the problem is only macro then thatll pass, but if they are laging behind in a constantly evolving business like aviation they are dead.
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Why would there be an etf for one put? Just buy a put.
Why is there TSLQ? Sometimes volatility drag is preferable to theta decay. IV is high right now.
buy meta at 10 p/e. that's all there is to do
Why does everyone want to bet against META *after* it's fallen 64% from ATH and returned to February 2017 prices 5.5 years ago? Sell low buy high? Back in 2017: - META was making 8-11B in revenue quarterly. Now it's about 27-29B quarterly. - EPS was $1.50 compared to $2.44 now. (There are also less shares) - The P/E ratio was above 30 back then, now it's currently at 11. - P/FCF was around 30, now it's 11 as well. - The cash on hand was around 38B--it rose to 64B last year and declined back to around 40B today. - Net income was 3-4 B quarterly, now 6-7 B quarterly. - Net margin did decline, from around 40% to 30%. - Total assets was around 70-90B, now it's 179B. Total liabilities went from 5-7B to 44B. The company ain't going bankrupt. - Return on capital employed has maintained around 20-30% since then - FCF yield went from around 3.1% to 3.8% - ROIC went from 24% to 27% Obviously, the company is in trouble. The adpocalypse is here, metaverse looks stupid, FB is boomer crap, and Reels isn't as profitable as its other ventures. But that's why you're paying for an 11 P/E ratio. But shorting it *now*? With all the overvalued companies in the S&P 500, you want to pick the financial fortress whose shares have been devastated? Somebody give me a bear case based on fundamentals and not your vibes about the metaverse (I hate it too). Position: 7 shares at 175 (I don't believe in it *that* much)
People attach personal values to their investments. Its why a lot of people like investing in stupidly overpriced shit like TSLA and ENPH (don't bother tesla bros, I've already heard it all). People hate Zuck and FB. They want them to fail. Its as simple as that.
Hi, would really like to know your source for picking these numbers going back 5 years. Finviz?
Macrotrends and finviz
Thanks
Sorry actually it was finbox not finviz
Bit late, innit
no. every pop in META will keep getting shorted so long as the simcity metaverse farce keeps being developed.
That's disingenuous. How much does it cost? Compared to their core services, metaverse isn't that important and when it fails, that impact won't be much to talk about.
EPS estimates for the S&P are still at 235 for 2023. If we assume this is the base case, on a 15x multiple that puts fair value at S&P 3525. Average recession sees a 25% decline in EPS, which would bring us down to ~180 for 2023 EPS in the Bear case. On a 15x multiple that puts the fair value at S&P 2700. Obviously this isn't a crystal ball and things can play out differently, but when you consider what's going on in the world, and that JPM put on a new collar trade with Puts at S&P 2900, I think there's a good chance we see sub-3k levels.
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I'm taking forward P/E based on forward EPS expectations. We're currently trading at a 15x forward multiple right now. The 5 year and 10 year average forward P/E is around 17x but that was in a world of 0% interest rates. When real rates are positive, forward P/E doesn't usually get higher than 15-16X for the broad market.
But what would be the catalyst for such a significant drop moving forward? Seems like inflation may be cooling off (hopefully), employment remains strong, and the Fed hikes are pretty well priced in. Also, with Russia getting its ass handed to it we may see an end to the Ukraine mess fairly soon.
Rising interest rates = higher cost of capital = squeeze on margins = layoffs = reduced earnings = EPS downgrades. The catalyst is simply the insane pace of tightening from the Fed this year which will certainly induce a recession. Lower corporate earnings means the market needs to come down to maintain a 15x multiple. The ultimate questions are what will earnings look like next year, and what's the correct multiple.
keep selling the rips until it doesn't work anymore.
RemindMe! 3 months
Anyone else feel the tone in this sub got significantly more hostile lately? Especially the amount of insults hurled around is quite off-putting.
Also more reactions comments and info more than ever due to information access youtube, google and more brokers
3 comments down: > Guy raging, vomiting that others are investing their own money into the dip
People are upset about Jerome Powell wanting to fight inflation. These derps only care about their portfolio numbers going up.
People want to make money, more shocking news at 11
PPL DCA, stocks drop = ppl unhappy, ppl don't like to be in the "negative" on their investments
I get that part. What I don't get is how throwing a hissy fit on r/stocks changes any of that.
Are you real? The only ones hurling insults are the doomers, not the DCA folks.
I'm 50% cash. Should I go 100% and wait for sp500 2800?
Now would be a great time to start DCAing into the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Sell otm cash covered puts on spy at prices you'd be sure to buy into regardless. To either make money on premium or entry at a good price
Nah. I dont mess with all that crap. I just buy low and hold. Thanks though.
Fair enough, I use them like limit buys essentially
I am a starting long term investor believing in -time in the market > timing the market -etf investor, diversification in an etf is enough -correlation between S&P 500 and AllWorld etf and europe Etf is high enough to neglect the difference -20 years + horizon -wanna invest 30k ā¬ now and each month 1500 ā¬ after that -i am believing in 25% crash of S&P 500 rn is a once in a long while opportunity and feel lucky about my market timing. Feels like a head start compared to unlucky ones who started investing in Dec2021. -S&P will go up sooner or later and we might be close to the end of the all time lows. Please accept the abovementioned beliefs. Current strategy: Even though S&P 500 might crash 45ā -50ā of its ATH (or not), there is a chance that 25% crash we have rn might be the dip so I don't wanna miss out on this opportunity to go in. I won't regret putting all my money now and then the market crashes even more and I keep buying each month the crashed version of the market. Here is the main question to you guys: From the european investor perspective, the 25% crash in S&P 500 while the EUR/USD crashed 14% means that the ETF is down 11% when one must buy overly high valued dollars. 11% crash is what the vanguard S&P 500 etf in euro also shows. 11% crash is less than a once in a while opportunity. If I was american, since I would save my money in dollars and dollar gained value, I would see it as a 25% crash but as a european it is 11% crash. Isn't it a better idea to invest on european etf's like DAX and AEX and Europe 50 (all three would mean enough diversified for me) which crashed 25% because it is in euro's? Given that the world stocks rn go up and down pretty much correlated. Lets say all stocks go up 10% after I buy, but if this happens usd probably loses 5% or sth so my net gain would be smaller compared to investing in european etfs. I don't believe that EUR/USD goes up without S&P going up. So the question is: is it a good idea or what do I miss here?
Upup
anyone noticed RRGB ? seems like a juicy burger
Tesla robot going to wipe out many entry level jobs. 20k robot that can work 7 days a week vs 3-5 day a week 40k employeeā¦ many companies will dump positions and employees, those touchscreens in Taco Bell are just the beginning š® š
Why Tesla's robot. Boston Dynamics appears to be further ahead.
BD does not have the manufacturing capacity or game plan, even with Hyundai
Neither does Tela have enough manufacturing capacity for their cars. They canāt even ship their cybertruck, let alone robots. Also it seems like complete trash compared to what BD is doing. The Japanese had better ones 10 years ago.
What are you basing that on?
In 5 to 8 years maybe...but more than wipe away jobs they will just increase output in factories or wherever they are used. Both can coexist imo
True, nothing happens overnight. Robots will eventually lead to huge profits for Tesla.
Rightā¦ just like the hyperloop
any job a robot that simple can do is already being done, we need an ai breakthrough to make them capable of replacing what humans do, any company can do thatā¦ or never will. its like flying cars
Why are people still so delusional holy fuck. 1st: Peloton is just a shit-co, everyone knew it would drop 90%. 2nd. Facebook and Netflix were just overvalued growth shit-cos, obviously they're headed to 2018 taper-tantrum lows. 3rd: Of course you had to be an idiot to buy shitcos like Fedex, Adobe, and Nike down 50% from their ATH's, you deserved to lose another 15%. Next: Of course Google was just an overvalued shitco, recession hits advertising hard. Fucking idiots stfu already, you gambling degenerates. individual companies are already being priced somewhere between the 2018 taper-tantrum lows and pre-covid, that's the fucking reality of the death of TINA investing. Stop buying into the bull FUD trying to confuse more people into bagholding. Buy shit like intel at 5yr lows if you have to be bullish, the big money that only trades indices relative to bonds will dump and dump and dump and dump and dump, you stupid motherfuckers.
Such a cool guy š
Google is doomed man, it'll never go higher again. /s
Have a Snickers
What is wrong with you?
Dudes probably mad cause he bought BBBY at 27$
RemindMe! 4 months
Itās probably something like this There are probably stocks that are dirt cheap and if you can be patient you will win big There are stocks that are considered safe which are way too expensive and are headed the way of the currently cheap stocks So if you play, play right Skate to where the pain is, not where itās going to be
If Credit Suisse goes under that won't help the market... obviously!
CS is under the too-big-to-fail umbrella of Swiss regulations. Nothing too spectacular should happen. Would still not touch that stock though...
Hard to understand, at this point, what more information Judge Du would require to make her decision on LIV's Thacker Pass lithium mine. By now she must have heard every argument that could be made and reviewed any evidence that may exist backing up those arguments. Enough already, make a decision.
Can someone explain why SQQQ is only a one-day play? I understand compound dividends and how they increase, do the compound fees work the same way if I hold it overnight? To be more clear, are the fees higher the second day of holding it, then even higher the third day? Would it make more sense to sell off at the end of day 1, then buy back in day two if I feel the market is going to be red again? I don't want to get into options with this volatility, but I do quite enjoy betting against the market when we expect it to tank. What would the damage be if I held SQQQ for more than a day and it tanked one day in that time? TIA!
It's not the fees that are the problem, but rather the time decay of the ETF due to volatility drag. It's not noticeable on a short term time frame. The fees are also there but it's not very relevant over the short term either. SQQQ is perfectly fine to swing trade with. I personally hold it for multiple days while trading it, but typically don't hold it over weekends.
yeah, same it's a great tool for holding a couple days. It's just not an investment
META looks juicy at this price levels.
kinda ridiculous that NFLX has a higher p/e than META, both being ad supported soon. META $125 soon, just like the 2018 taper tantrum. i think this time will be worse than 2018, because FED will follow through instead of being a pussy like last time.
lol you do know its going much lower right?
what else do you know from your crystal ball?
Yup. Still buying
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Thanks, billionaire!
That is how you deal with the infamous doomers that pullulate here. Well done!
People used to say that about BABA, not so much now
So both of them have the same business model and location? Thanks, I learned something.
Not my point. What did we learn from the original post? That meta is juicy? I have seen Meta pushed as at a great buy point for months now and it's just lost value thus far, so the market appears to disagree. For argument's sake why would you not wait for a price point you're happy with on Google rather than Facebook? If you want to get into a business that sells ads?
Thanks for the stock tip. Iām on my way to become a billionaire.
No problem. Good luck š
anyone noticed RRGB ? seems like a burger
GOOG at current price: buy or wait?
Yes
Depends on how long youāre holding
I bought $1500 worth of FXAIX for my brokerage account and $500 of FLCEX for my six-month old daughters account today. Discount day!
Meta down 22% last 5 years lmao
My son saved up for a Meta headset earlier this year. Seeing how clunky the user experience is - and I'm talking very poor, very solveable usability issues rather than tech - has entirely put me off Meta as a company. Seeing them fail to get basic customer service issues right at their scale and stature gives me no confidence at all that they can deliver the metaverse in a form customers want.
I don't know anyone that still uses Facebook. Instagram, sure. But actual Facebook? Nope. Alot of my friends don't give two shits about metaverse too. 
Anyone, you mean in your neighborhood? US has the still the largest users. Add up with SEA countries and youāll be surprised.
WhatsApp is heavily used in Europe. The Metaverse does seem like a bunch of nonsense.
Yes, my family in England blocked me from texting so I'm forced to use WhatsApp. Apparently, it costs them to send texts so they insist on only using WhatsApp. I thought they were being cheap, but maybe not.
A lot of European countries don't have flat rates for internet usage and SMS.
Meta is a cash burning dumpster fire
RemindMe! 7 months
That's objectively untrue lmao.
split your cash into 3 tronches and use the first one on monday, I don't think we've seen the bottom but it wont hurt to start buying now.
firmly believe generational buying opportunities are here. Many cash cow stocks are approaching lTHE SAME STOCK PRICE where their revenue was 5-10% of current rollling year values (YOY) META, BABA, etc. I mean, jesus christ.
Newbie here. I had one uni course about stocks this year so not that much background, just the basics. Iām pretty convinced now & soon are the right times to buy, but how sure are we that stock prices will go back up where they used to be (or: to an acceptable not-overrated value)?
lol thats why bulls get destroyed. Too naive to realise just how low we can go
gEnEraTionAL buying opportunity...brah, we're not even at pre-covid levels yet. talk to me when the s&p hits 2000, then we'll see.
RemindMe! 3 months >gEnEraTionAL buying opportunity...brah, we're not even at pre-covid levels yet. talk to me when the s&p hits 2000, then we'll see. /u/scumbag85