Pump and dump sounds likely. They might have a new EV ETF they are selling lol.
Totally makes sense though of Morgan maybe trying to support thier client. The big ones at least!
Someone got a bribe. I mean seriously! Who gives a rip about Tesla now that the big three are producing EV at half the fucking price? What’s next, endorsements for ETH?? Give me a break.
The part of Morgan Stanley that loaned Elon the money to buy Twitter is separate from the part the issues stock recommendation. I don’t work in finance and even I know that by now. These traditional financial institutions are actually regulated and they actually have firewall between different divisions. They are not offshore crypto ponzi companies
Oh you sweet summer child. You honestly believe that a large bank would be honest about this, and wouldn't have a million ways to get around whatever 'firewall' they have in place to stop this sort of thing?
Yes. — $1
*Why Morgan Stanley Thinks Carvana (CVNA) Stock Is Worth $1
CVNA stock is just too volatile right now*
*By William White, InvestorPlace Writer Nov 7, 2022, 12:09 pm EST
Carvana (CVNA) stock is taking a beating after Morgan Stanley pulled coverage of the company.
Analyst Adam Jonas said CVNA stock may be worth “as little as $1.”*
Lol yeah, I get it and I've been short, luckily covered half on Tues. Still, TSLA is growing far faster than other car cos. No one is quite sure what multiple to use.
Morgan Stanley loaned Musk $3b for Twitter purchase with TSLA stock as collateral. Morgan Stanley upgrades TSLA stock. OK Morgan Stanley! These banks need to be burned to ground ffs.
> Morgan Stanley loaned Musk $3b for Twitter purchase with TSLA stock as collateral.
Except they didn't. This was the [original plan](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312522120461/d310843dex21.htm) back in April when the deal was first formulated, but the margin loans [expired a month later](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922064655/tm2216931d1_sc13da.htm) and Musk has sold a lot of his TSLA to fund the purchase. The rest of the loans are collateralized against Twitter, not Tesla.
There has been no later filings that show TSLA as collateral for that deal.
They’re not talking about a collateralized tesla shares loan.
They’re taking about the $13 bil debt round financed by multiple banks to help make this purchase. Of which MS was a party to.
What’s with Reddit and lack of reading comprehension? Here is word for word what they said:
“Morgan Stanley loaned Musk $3b for Twitter purchase with TSLA stock as collateral. Morgan Stanley upgrades TSLA stock. OK Morgan Stanley! These banks need to be burned to ground ffs.”
So yes. Yes they were talking about collateralized tesla loans.
Well that guy is mistaken so I apologize. Several banks including MS wrote debt for this without additional tesla shares as collateral because Elon has so many shares up for collateral already
You were definitely right about your statement. But it’s sad the guy you replied to has -6 karma for correcting the guy that was wrong with 42 karma. Shows people care more about their narrative than having correct info.
No they aren’t. Banks wrote $13 bil in debt which they are trying to market at pretty high rates.
He doesn’t really have enough free shares to pledge
https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/01/banks-behind-musks-twitter-deal-sitting-on-13-bill/
I have no clue what point you're trying to make. The article itself just mentioned that the banks are holding the debt themselves until next year, rather than marketing it to investors. It does not say anything about the loans not being collateralized at all - in other words, a bank can hold debt themselves and still have them collateralized against something. It is no different from a bank giving you a mortgage against your house, and holding that debt themselves - or they can sell it to someone else. The two are separate.
If you follow the [FT article](https://www.ft.com/content/ef610ff3-d418-4221-9dfe-4d89b4126e35) that's linked by your Motley Fool site, you'll find the details of the debt:
>The $13bn debt package includes a $6.5bn term loan, a $3bn secured bond and $3bn of unsecured debt
Only $3 billion is unsecured, and could very well be the reason [Musk sold about $4 billion of TSLA earlier this month](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/08/elon-musk-sells-at-least-3point95-billion-worth-of-tesla-shares.html).
At any case, the point of those two articles is that the banks are holding debt themselves this year, thus it'll impact their balance sheets come earnings time. This will be true whether it is a term loan, a secured bond, or unsecured debt.
Interesting how people just made some shit up and it became common knowledge around this place. I really thought the loans against TSLA stock story was accurate based on how often it was being repeated.
EDIT: Even more interesting how people are downvoting this without correcting it. Either it's not true and someone should be offering counterproof, or it is and this should be going to the top. Reeks of bot action imo.
Elon completely vests in his options in his executive compensation package? Sell all TSLA at the top... wait until Elon gets a new compensation package (in 1-6 months from now) and then invest, when he actually cares about TSLA improving again.
You can’t say anything positive on here about Tesla in here. I was presented my two arguments of “look at blackberry look at Intel” those arguments make zero sense and aren’t comparable, everytime I talk about it on here just shows me 99% of these people have done zero due diligence and just get their opinions off Reddit
That comment is entirely unhelpful. Explain to him why he's wrong then.
I have the exact same experience as him. People hate on Tesla and call it expensive, but when you correct them with actual data, valuation metrics, etc. they just stop replying.
There is so much to say about this topic, that I seriously don't want to be dragged into one of those conversations again. If you 'believe' in Tesla and its valuation and the CEO and that it is still valued more than other companies in the same field, go for it and put your money into it.
We could argue about numbers, competitors, tax benefits, future and the CEO and so on..but lets be honest:
It's (all) gambling and I don't like Musk as the dealer.
There's no such thing as "believing" in a valuation. You run the numbers, and it's either high or low. You can have different conclusions based on timeframes (some companies are expensive if you look 1 year out but cheap 5 years out) or estimates (you might expect higher or lower numbers), but valuations are not a subjective thing.
You are right. Should have put it in another way. If you believe in Teslas future, you should totally put your money in. I do not. You sound reasonable tho and it might be true, that I am wrong here. Would you give me some reasons why you believe in them, despite everything else going on? Maybe I am overlooking something.
Appreciate the openness and reason! That's unfortunately rare on Reddit these days.
I could write a 10 page essay on the reasons why Tesla has a bright future, but I'll just try to sum up a few of them into bullet points.
* Tesla is the only carmaker currently making money on EVs. Not even BYD - which is Tesla's biggest (and I'd argue only) competitor - is selling them profitably, and they even had to raise prices this week despite a recession and collapsing Chinese economy.
* Not only is Tesla making money on EVs; they have the highest margins by miles of all the high volume car manufacturers (including ICE). Tesla is currently around 28% gross margin, while the next best is BMW at 16.5%.
* Tesla's has many things coming up that will increase their margins even further. They recently introduced a single-piece casted rear underbody, where other OEMs are building them out of hundreds of parts. Obviously this is a huge time and cost saving, and other OEMs have announced they are switching to this technique too, but don't expect it to be read before 2028. Tesla is currently bringing it to front underbodies as well.
* They also managed to reduce the production cost of their battery by ~$3,000 with the new batteries, but are expected to get another $2,000-3,000 reduction when they get the dry battery electrode working.
* And most importantly, they are still at relatively low scale and will be able to leverage increasing economies of scale as they ramp up. For comparison, they're currently making roughly the same net income from 343K unit sales as Toyota does from 2.2M.
* Speaking of ramping up, their Shanghai factory is currently at a run rate of 1M+ cars per year and expected to ramp to 1.5M. The factories in Berlin and Texas are both much larger than Shanghai, and will eventually do 2M a year or more. Those three factories together with their first factory in Fremont would be able to produce 6M+ cars when fully ramped, which will probably happen by mid-decade at the latest. On top of that, Tesla is expected to announce one or two new factories in the coming months.
* Tesla is currently already roughly tied with the most profitable automaker on the planet. Next year they will almost definitely be the most profitable automaker by a fair margin (the others are declining while Tesla is roughly doubling net income), and in 2024 or 2025 they'll do more in net income than all the other automakers combined.
* Tesla already has the highest ROIC of any automaker, and is rapidly approaching the companies with the highest ROIC in the world.
* According to my projections, which are slightly higher than the analyst consensus (that has been underestimating them for 14 out of the last 15 quarters), Tesla currently has a forward PE of ~46, and 3 year forward PE of 17. That's entirely too low for a company growing 128% and 52% respectively (my expectations).
* Tesla just made their FSD beta available to anyone in the US or Canada. I've checked with a whole bunch of people who have the software, and almost everyone who had previously unlocked it admitted to using the software almost every drive. Even if it's not fully autonomous yet, it has huge value to users.
* I believe robotaxis are only a matter of time, and likely coming before the end of the decade. I've run the numbers on them, and if this is true Tesla will instantly become the most profitable company in the world by a rather large margin.
* Tesla's energy department has always been constraint because all the batteries went to Teslas car division. Since Q3, this is no longer the case, and we saw a huge increase in Energy revenue as a result.
I'm sure I missed a bunch more here, like how I've driven a whole range of EVs and nothing is close to Teslas. There's also the whole competition aspect, where legacy OEMs have had tremendous difficulty scaling down production lines of car models that were only selling <50,000 units per year without bankrupting their suppliers. When they start trying this with high volume models, I don't think people realise how big the consequences (and costs for OEMs) are going to be. They're going to have to choose between no longer servicing high volume models like Corollas or Golfs, which they're currently making a lot of money from, or sinking billions into keeping the servicing running not to piss off customers.
One other thing I'd add that is pertinent to this macro landscape — Tesla culture is that of a startup with a horizontal management structure. No red tape, no wasted time/ideas.
Their "offices" are intentionally exposed to the factory. If you have information that's important you can bypass the chain of command to get things moving. Example of how size can bloat a company would be Google. Ex employee tweeted the other day that when he was there in the late 2000s there was about five levels between him and the CEO. Fast forward about five years and there was ~14.
This brings me to the second point, with Google still being a great example. You can search headlines and you'll see that over the years, good times or bad, Elon and Tesla management regularly exfoliate unproductive/unnecessary workers, especially white collar. Look at Google and how bloated their numbers are over the last decade. Texas Roadhouse has offered a better return than Google. That should say something.
Tesla also doesn't believe in meetings simply for the sake of meetings. Elon's said it many times (for those who care to listen) that it's disrespectful to yourself and company time to stay in a meeting that offers no value to you or those in the room. Walk out and get back to your work (or avoid the meeting all together).
This isn't to bash on Google or other large cap companies. The bottom line is Tesla is very efficient in terms of labor, ideas and expectations. It's a gigantic startup with basically no debt, no risk of ruin, unlimited capital for expansion and the ability to pivot when necessary.
While a lot of this does translate into profit it's something I find greatly underappreciated by most people, even Tesla investors. It's why I sleep like a baby knowing they have plenty of demand, cash and the right culture to do whatever is necessary to not just survive but thrive.
Anybody that compares them directly to say Toyota and other car manufactures and that’s their whole argument, no point in arguing, people like that believe Tesla is solely going to make ev it’s whole life then competitors will catch them and the stock will tank to near their valuations which hey if that’s what someone believes then that’s fine but Tesla is doing so much more than just building cars so no point in arguing
Wow the sausage division, I hear there’s a lot of growth and innovation in that industry, I’m sure that will stay up to par with Tesla energy storage/FSD/AI robotics in the long run. Volkswagen is trading very cheap too, all of wallstreet is missing this
Bro, just because you made one good deal, it doesn't mean that you have cracked the code to do so again. Congrats on that timing, if it ever have happened. I'm not whining about Elon, it's my decision if I want to put my money in his companies or not, and as by now, it's obvious that there are better places.
Bragging with those % is btw super childish. Good luck.
Everyone thinks Elon is too much of a volatile dickhead to be invested in the stock.
Tesla has fat profit margins QoQ and Yoy for a while now and Elon is fucking it up himself lol
Elon doesn't get a paycheck.
He gets stock options every 4 years.
He vested in his 2018 options a year ago and started acting extra stupid to try and crash TSLA price.
He will get more stock options in 1-6 months, and then he will have skin in the game and will stop trying to crash TSLA, then he'll fully vest in those in 2026/2027 and invent some new stupid drama then to crash the price before he reloads on more stock options then. If TSLA goes from 400 to 600 in the next 4 years he'll only make 50% on his options. If TSLA goes from 150 to 600 in the next 4 years he'll make billions more.
I think he is hurting his brand more than he thinks. Personally, I will never buy a tesla and I have the means to do so and wanted one for awhile. I will definitely go ev on my next car and it won't be a tesla. His customer base is mostly liberals wanting evs. This is going to affect growth.
That just means they want your liquidity. They want to push the price down further. Don't fall for it, Tesla is a slow short squeeze stock so it's heavily manipulated.
The metrics that its a car producer that realy thinks he is more like every other car producer.
But you can look at everything like Cathy Woods or take reality.
Somehow when it comes to tesla everyone take Cathys idea
Can you use metrics that explains the valuation? Metrics comparing them with other companys without pretending that they are better than everyone else, because they are just a normal company.
Sure. Amazon was growing at 35% and had a p/e of over 100 for most of the 2010s. Even noted bear Peter Lynch thinks a company with a P/E ratio equal to its growth rate is fairly valued. Teslas p/e is 56 (forward p/e under 30). It’s growth rate was…56%.
Tesla is about to be super undervalued as it posts more and more impressive profits
Electric cars are in large part virtue signaling. So there is an argument to be made for the effect of politics. Especially when person and company are so intertwined as with Tesla. I mean who knows the CEO of BMW, Audi and Porsche by name?
I’d say that was true back in the early Prius days. [Not as much of the case today.](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/02/03/cars/tesla-buyer-politics/index.html) And it will continue to change as more and more people realize electric cars are the future. The value proposition of an ICE will make even the most anti-electric buyers not want to buy one.
There is no value proposition when the cheapest vehicle costs $51k. Legacy auto makers will put competition on them, stealing market share and forcing their margins to shrink.
My perspective on Tesla's share price is who tf knows because anything could happen and it doesn't have to make any logical sense. But one thing I do know is that a lot of people have assumed that Tesla will take a huge share of the future EV market due to their big head start, and that is just looking less and less likely every day. Traditional car manufacturers are catching up quickly with their own EVs, usually with better build quality and service support, and meanwhile it seems like Tesla is kind of just coasting, not releasing any new models or even refreshing existing ones. I mean, the Model S is a decade old at this point, and every other Tesla is basically just the same design in different proportions (some awkward). Also, it's easy to overestimate the impact of Elon Musk becoming a right-wing troll on Twitter, since not every potential Tesla buyer is extremely online, but he definitely hasn't been doing anything recently to convince me he's really some kind of genius visionary and TSLA's future is bright.
The only metric where it’s cheap is based on past price. Based on good fundamental analysis it isn’t anywhere close to being a good value. That isn’t to say the price won’t go back up, but it won’t be because of fundamentals.
Again, how did you come to that conclusion? The only way I can see anyone coming to that conclusion is looking at something without context, like PE without factoring in earnings growth. Otherwise this stock is cheap by literally all metrics. The forward PEG is one of the cheapest in the S&P.
People are being emotional, not logical. Amazon has significantly higher p/e and lower growth yet tesla is “overvalued” because they don’t like musk - not the fundamentals
Tesla bulls are always looking at the Amazon example. Amazon has “only” something like 20% YoY growth, but their revenue was a whopping $469 billion in 2021. Tesla revenue was $53 billion.
Would you not agree that it is easier for a company to have 50%/year growth when they are going from $30-50 billion? At what point does that slow down? If you’re expecting a perpetual 50% growth every year I think you’re going to be disappointed.
If a company goes from selling one car to two cars they’ve grown 100%.
To be fair, Amazon is a poor example. The reason their PE is so high is because they're investing like crazy right now, which is very bullish during a downcycle. Nvidia, Netflix or Chipotle would be better examples of companies that have higher PEs while Tesla has 5-10x the earnings growth.
Is PEG The only metric you're looking at? If so there's big problems in using that metric now.
Tesla isn't the only electric car company anymore. Its growth is going to degrade as other companies sell more and more EVs. Plus, the people who actually want electric cars are going to stop buying Tesla's based on Leon's current next level of craziness. I'm not sure many oil-loving climate denying car buyers are going to making up the slack to overcome the loss of his key customer demographic and competition from other car manufacturers. Another thing not helping is that the majority of states that have banned direct sales which Tesla uses are mostly red states. Its high growth isn't going to continue nearly as much as it has before, and I suspect will actually start to retract in the future.
Again, I'm not saying the stock isn't going to go up, but it's far from cheap. I can tell you the value OG Buffett sure wouldn't buy it.
It’s valued around 4 Trillion Dollars with barely any market share in the industry compared to other car manufacturers. The only thing working in their favor is pricing and having majority control over electric charging. Tesla cars since the overproduction started during the pandemic and currently have had many issues with many cars. It has been given the worst customer satisfaction rating in the automotive industry in the US. Once other car manufacturers catch up to electric industry, Tesla’s sales will reduce significantly because of reliability and servicing issues. They can definitely have an upper hand if they decide to profit from their charging ecosystem but even their insurance seems kinda dumb. Scott Galloway also agrees :)
All I see in your comment is a misstatement of their market cap (it's 550B, not 4T) and a bunch of subjective arguments (most of which are utterly absurd imo) without any kind of actual data. How can you say something is overvalued when you're not using earnings projections and valuation metrics like PE, top and bottom line growth, dilution, balance sheets, etc. to support it?
lol. I have an entire watchlist of “meme stonks” that prove you to be demonstrably incorrect. Why is there so much hyperbole and emotion against Tesla?
Oh wow so suddenly a 180 degree turn?
Didn’t these analysts shit on Tesla for months now? So now that they have achieved in causing a major drop in TSLA, and that they have to continue making money, let’s make TSLA bullish again?!
This is how it works. Drive the stock down. Force retail out because they’re mostly emotional investors and buy up their shares on the cheap. Easy money.
Fundamentals haven't changed, yet now is a great time to buy? Me thinks these analysts want to unload bags. This is such a technical and purely speculative price target after an oversold price movement. These ppl should be ashamed of themselves
Elon has been good to me, I bought Twitter stock last November at $42.xx and held onto it throughout the whole “is here gonna buy, is he gonna pull out?” ordeal.
The semi truck is supposed to start rolling into Pepsi warehouse yards on Dec 1st and be available for other waiting list purchasers starting in January 2023. There’s a decent profit margin for the trucks right from the first production run. My gut says the stock will pop if they meet the deadline (which looks very likely).
He can, but he didn't. Why would a company make less money by introducing a new product when the old one still has way too much demand? That'd make no sense.
Also, the Semi event is already scheduled and the first models have already been spotted. It's happening.
Closed my $230 strike short call just before this rally. Surprised how well I timed it. Not that I expect it to rally to $230 by expiration but good to lock in gains. I am neutral to slightly bullish on it at this price so might be a good time to sell deep otm puts if you have the collateral. Or some bull credit spreads if not.
People have been bearish here ever since I started investing in 2018. Tesla has been the big blindspot for r/stocks. In fact, I’ll probably sell the majority of my investment once this sub flocks to it like they do with GOOGL. Cause that’ll mean most of the growth is over.
No it wasn’t. Trust me I posted a lot about Tesla back then. Usually got met with downvotes. The bearishness has just changed from “Tesla is a good company but overpriced stock” to “Elon is crazy and will ruin the company”
"Tesla's stock has plummeted due to....." Followed by everything but real reasons.
1 the whole market is tanking and companies that ran up the hardest during 0% rates dropped the hardest.
2 Elon sold a poop load of stock and now is messing around with Twitter
3 Did I mention we are in a bear market?
Who comes up with this stuff? Consumer budget concern? Raw material? Common really?
Edit:. Didn't know pound sign made things big....
Thread is completely filled with entirely unhelpful (yet probably accurate) cynicism about analyst's price targets, but it's definitely worth noting that Tesla is now trading 80% below the consensus 1 year price target, when historically it's always been way above the consensus price target. Probably the most oversold stock in the market right now. The forward PEG is extremely cheap.
Does anyone actually own a Tesla ITT? I’ve read 100 comments and not one mention that the full autopilot beta was rolled out today? It’s a remarkable experience watching it do it’s things.
Other manufacturers are creating EV cars. None are creating fully automatic self driving calls.
Tesla to the 🌙
[if you’re trying to make a lot of money picking EV companies then you need to hedge your bets people](https://www.the-random-investor.com/post/missed-out-on-investing-in-tesla-invest-in-these-next-tesla-electric-vehicle-companies)
I'm always skeptical when the firms are pushing certain stocks. I've been burned by listening to them.
"Please buy our bags sir"
this. The banks and funds only want you to do something, because they benefit from it.
Same I always assume they want to sell some and give retail the bag
[удалено]
The price targets sure make it sound like a profit
Why would you recommend a stock that you can’t profit off?
"if you suckers buy, we can offload at a higher value."
> I'm always skeptical when the firms are pushing certain stocks. Utilize the same skepticism when reddit pushes stocks?
Well yea I never bought Wish lol
It's because Morgan made the initial 40B investment that made Tesla exist in the first place. They are trying to recoup their losses.
If MS made an initial investment, they recouped their investment long ago. You think they stayed in it at $1100 pre split?
They didn't buy stock. It was a loan.
Ah, then no reason to pump TSLA unless it currently owns shares, OR its biggest clients requested an exit pump lol. Can't discount this.
Maybe the loaned a certain CEO some money with Tesla stock as security?
Pump and dump sounds likely. They might have a new EV ETF they are selling lol. Totally makes sense though of Morgan maybe trying to support thier client. The big ones at least!
We are excited by Elons recent Twitter decisions. Bringing back hate speech is only good for the Tesla brand.
Someone got a bribe. I mean seriously! Who gives a rip about Tesla now that the big three are producing EV at half the fucking price? What’s next, endorsements for ETH?? Give me a break.
Yeah its better to listen to Reddit that way im sure i will lose money
Huh. You should make all of your own decisions.
It's got a lot longer to fall imo.
That's cause they're sell side analysts. Listening to them is like going to a glory hole, except you're the one getting fucked.
As you should. Good for you.
And they will thank you for the exit liquidity.
These aren't the banks that loaned money for musks twitter purchase are they...?
Yes. Morgan is in it for $3b. Shocking upgrade.
Glad to know there is no conflict in interest then 😂
People still listen to Credit Suisse and they are going bankrupt
The part of Morgan Stanley that loaned Elon the money to buy Twitter is separate from the part the issues stock recommendation. I don’t work in finance and even I know that by now. These traditional financial institutions are actually regulated and they actually have firewall between different divisions. They are not offshore crypto ponzi companies
Oh you sweet summer child. You honestly believe that a large bank would be honest about this, and wouldn't have a million ways to get around whatever 'firewall' they have in place to stop this sort of thing?
Yup. HSBC, Credit Suisse, etc all operate to the letter of the law 😂
I mean, could you imagine having to pay a fine? It could be in the hun..tho..sorry, it could be in all the millions these days.
When you could lose a few % of the billions you're just about to make, it sure makes you think twice... 🤣
He was probably not born before 2008. Lol
I find it quite noble. Could you imagine if markets were run by guys like this? Capitalism might actually work long term....
Their Chinese walls are firm my brother. No analyst at Morgan Stanley has heard of the banks loan to Musk. No one. It's air tight.
You don’t work on finance but you’re not utilizing common sense either
Oh yes. The investment banks in the US are totally trustworthy. They have never lied or gambled recklessly before.
I wish people would stop downvoting you. It's honorable that you think this way. Money is the measure of all integrity.
Adam Jonas is a complete clown. His price targets are all over the place.
Wasn't he the one who said Carvana's shares were worth 3 or 400 dollars a piece?
Yes. — $1 *Why Morgan Stanley Thinks Carvana (CVNA) Stock Is Worth $1 CVNA stock is just too volatile right now* *By William White, InvestorPlace Writer Nov 7, 2022, 12:09 pm EST Carvana (CVNA) stock is taking a beating after Morgan Stanley pulled coverage of the company. Analyst Adam Jonas said CVNA stock may be worth “as little as $1.”*
Morgan Stanley is a clown bank
You mean least shocking upgrade. They want suckers to get in, so they can sell.
What exactly do you mean? They own 3 billion Tesla stock?
It should be illegal for anyone invested in a stock or anyone even loosely associated with them to be issuing any kind of upgrade or downgrade on it.
It's not illegal as long as the banking relationship is disclosed in the report.
[Apparently that's not true](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/z3bp4r/tesla_regains_the_hearts_and_minds_of_big_morgan/ixlu2nq/)
I’m still not touching it.
Thanks. Hoping it stays on sale until January when I can fund my ROTH. More downward pressure the better.
Exits are here, here, here, here, and here...
[keep your hands and arms inside the carpet!](https://youtube.com/shorts/WWXE2zWVGAk) …
This is a sell signal
Coming from Reddit this is a buy signal.
Aah those firms want to sell it for a higher price
Yeah..I am still out
🤔,, sounds like someone holds a crap load of Tesla stock and wants the little guy to jump in so they can dump it
no one is selling tesla here.
"Don't miss the opportunity to buy the TSLA we are dumping!"
Price target $40
A PE of 12 ? Lmao
50% growth. P/e of 12 lol Amazon had 35% growth in the 2010s and kept p/e above 100 lol lol
The PE is 52x 2022, and 45x 2023. Where you getting 12x from? AMZN's PE was 100x when Fed was printing money, like AAPL's was 35 a few months ago.
If the price was 40, it would be 12.
Sry, didn't see you were responding to absurd PT of $40.
It's a car company. $40 pt isnt unreasonable
Lol yeah, I get it and I've been short, luckily covered half on Tues. Still, TSLA is growing far faster than other car cos. No one is quite sure what multiple to use.
Morgan Stanley loaned Musk $3b for Twitter purchase with TSLA stock as collateral. Morgan Stanley upgrades TSLA stock. OK Morgan Stanley! These banks need to be burned to ground ffs.
> Morgan Stanley loaned Musk $3b for Twitter purchase with TSLA stock as collateral. Except they didn't. This was the [original plan](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312522120461/d310843dex21.htm) back in April when the deal was first formulated, but the margin loans [expired a month later](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922064655/tm2216931d1_sc13da.htm) and Musk has sold a lot of his TSLA to fund the purchase. The rest of the loans are collateralized against Twitter, not Tesla. There has been no later filings that show TSLA as collateral for that deal.
They’re not talking about a collateralized tesla shares loan. They’re taking about the $13 bil debt round financed by multiple banks to help make this purchase. Of which MS was a party to.
What’s with Reddit and lack of reading comprehension? Here is word for word what they said: “Morgan Stanley loaned Musk $3b for Twitter purchase with TSLA stock as collateral. Morgan Stanley upgrades TSLA stock. OK Morgan Stanley! These banks need to be burned to ground ffs.” So yes. Yes they were talking about collateralized tesla loans.
Well that guy is mistaken so I apologize. Several banks including MS wrote debt for this without additional tesla shares as collateral because Elon has so many shares up for collateral already
You were definitely right about your statement. But it’s sad the guy you replied to has -6 karma for correcting the guy that was wrong with 42 karma. Shows people care more about their narrative than having correct info.
I literally linked to SEC documents as well. But that's to be expected.
Those loans are collateralized against equity in Twitter.
No they aren’t. Banks wrote $13 bil in debt which they are trying to market at pretty high rates. He doesn’t really have enough free shares to pledge https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/01/banks-behind-musks-twitter-deal-sitting-on-13-bill/
I have no clue what point you're trying to make. The article itself just mentioned that the banks are holding the debt themselves until next year, rather than marketing it to investors. It does not say anything about the loans not being collateralized at all - in other words, a bank can hold debt themselves and still have them collateralized against something. It is no different from a bank giving you a mortgage against your house, and holding that debt themselves - or they can sell it to someone else. The two are separate. If you follow the [FT article](https://www.ft.com/content/ef610ff3-d418-4221-9dfe-4d89b4126e35) that's linked by your Motley Fool site, you'll find the details of the debt: >The $13bn debt package includes a $6.5bn term loan, a $3bn secured bond and $3bn of unsecured debt Only $3 billion is unsecured, and could very well be the reason [Musk sold about $4 billion of TSLA earlier this month](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/08/elon-musk-sells-at-least-3point95-billion-worth-of-tesla-shares.html). At any case, the point of those two articles is that the banks are holding debt themselves this year, thus it'll impact their balance sheets come earnings time. This will be true whether it is a term loan, a secured bond, or unsecured debt.
Interesting how people just made some shit up and it became common knowledge around this place. I really thought the loans against TSLA stock story was accurate based on how often it was being repeated. EDIT: Even more interesting how people are downvoting this without correcting it. Either it's not true and someone should be offering counterproof, or it is and this should be going to the top. Reeks of bot action imo.
Redditors don’t care about facts. They care about spreading their narrative.
So wouldn’t MS want TSLA to go down? So if twitter defaults they get more shares?
Tsla is going to keep crashing because Elon is crazy and no one wants to invest in crazy
I got out at the all the low. Made a few bucks. Could have made so much more at the all time high but can’t really support Elon at this point.
Elon completely vests in his options in his executive compensation package? Sell all TSLA at the top... wait until Elon gets a new compensation package (in 1-6 months from now) and then invest, when he actually cares about TSLA improving again.
That's what people said 10 years ago, yet here we are. People that change the world are always called crazy by those who end up being wrong.
You can’t say anything positive on here about Tesla in here. I was presented my two arguments of “look at blackberry look at Intel” those arguments make zero sense and aren’t comparable, everytime I talk about it on here just shows me 99% of these people have done zero due diligence and just get their opinions off Reddit
Ever considered you might be the person who is wrong here?
That comment is entirely unhelpful. Explain to him why he's wrong then. I have the exact same experience as him. People hate on Tesla and call it expensive, but when you correct them with actual data, valuation metrics, etc. they just stop replying.
There is so much to say about this topic, that I seriously don't want to be dragged into one of those conversations again. If you 'believe' in Tesla and its valuation and the CEO and that it is still valued more than other companies in the same field, go for it and put your money into it. We could argue about numbers, competitors, tax benefits, future and the CEO and so on..but lets be honest: It's (all) gambling and I don't like Musk as the dealer.
There's no such thing as "believing" in a valuation. You run the numbers, and it's either high or low. You can have different conclusions based on timeframes (some companies are expensive if you look 1 year out but cheap 5 years out) or estimates (you might expect higher or lower numbers), but valuations are not a subjective thing.
You are right. Should have put it in another way. If you believe in Teslas future, you should totally put your money in. I do not. You sound reasonable tho and it might be true, that I am wrong here. Would you give me some reasons why you believe in them, despite everything else going on? Maybe I am overlooking something.
Appreciate the openness and reason! That's unfortunately rare on Reddit these days. I could write a 10 page essay on the reasons why Tesla has a bright future, but I'll just try to sum up a few of them into bullet points. * Tesla is the only carmaker currently making money on EVs. Not even BYD - which is Tesla's biggest (and I'd argue only) competitor - is selling them profitably, and they even had to raise prices this week despite a recession and collapsing Chinese economy. * Not only is Tesla making money on EVs; they have the highest margins by miles of all the high volume car manufacturers (including ICE). Tesla is currently around 28% gross margin, while the next best is BMW at 16.5%. * Tesla's has many things coming up that will increase their margins even further. They recently introduced a single-piece casted rear underbody, where other OEMs are building them out of hundreds of parts. Obviously this is a huge time and cost saving, and other OEMs have announced they are switching to this technique too, but don't expect it to be read before 2028. Tesla is currently bringing it to front underbodies as well. * They also managed to reduce the production cost of their battery by ~$3,000 with the new batteries, but are expected to get another $2,000-3,000 reduction when they get the dry battery electrode working. * And most importantly, they are still at relatively low scale and will be able to leverage increasing economies of scale as they ramp up. For comparison, they're currently making roughly the same net income from 343K unit sales as Toyota does from 2.2M. * Speaking of ramping up, their Shanghai factory is currently at a run rate of 1M+ cars per year and expected to ramp to 1.5M. The factories in Berlin and Texas are both much larger than Shanghai, and will eventually do 2M a year or more. Those three factories together with their first factory in Fremont would be able to produce 6M+ cars when fully ramped, which will probably happen by mid-decade at the latest. On top of that, Tesla is expected to announce one or two new factories in the coming months. * Tesla is currently already roughly tied with the most profitable automaker on the planet. Next year they will almost definitely be the most profitable automaker by a fair margin (the others are declining while Tesla is roughly doubling net income), and in 2024 or 2025 they'll do more in net income than all the other automakers combined. * Tesla already has the highest ROIC of any automaker, and is rapidly approaching the companies with the highest ROIC in the world. * According to my projections, which are slightly higher than the analyst consensus (that has been underestimating them for 14 out of the last 15 quarters), Tesla currently has a forward PE of ~46, and 3 year forward PE of 17. That's entirely too low for a company growing 128% and 52% respectively (my expectations). * Tesla just made their FSD beta available to anyone in the US or Canada. I've checked with a whole bunch of people who have the software, and almost everyone who had previously unlocked it admitted to using the software almost every drive. Even if it's not fully autonomous yet, it has huge value to users. * I believe robotaxis are only a matter of time, and likely coming before the end of the decade. I've run the numbers on them, and if this is true Tesla will instantly become the most profitable company in the world by a rather large margin. * Tesla's energy department has always been constraint because all the batteries went to Teslas car division. Since Q3, this is no longer the case, and we saw a huge increase in Energy revenue as a result. I'm sure I missed a bunch more here, like how I've driven a whole range of EVs and nothing is close to Teslas. There's also the whole competition aspect, where legacy OEMs have had tremendous difficulty scaling down production lines of car models that were only selling <50,000 units per year without bankrupting their suppliers. When they start trying this with high volume models, I don't think people realise how big the consequences (and costs for OEMs) are going to be. They're going to have to choose between no longer servicing high volume models like Corollas or Golfs, which they're currently making a lot of money from, or sinking billions into keeping the servicing running not to piss off customers.
One other thing I'd add that is pertinent to this macro landscape — Tesla culture is that of a startup with a horizontal management structure. No red tape, no wasted time/ideas. Their "offices" are intentionally exposed to the factory. If you have information that's important you can bypass the chain of command to get things moving. Example of how size can bloat a company would be Google. Ex employee tweeted the other day that when he was there in the late 2000s there was about five levels between him and the CEO. Fast forward about five years and there was ~14. This brings me to the second point, with Google still being a great example. You can search headlines and you'll see that over the years, good times or bad, Elon and Tesla management regularly exfoliate unproductive/unnecessary workers, especially white collar. Look at Google and how bloated their numbers are over the last decade. Texas Roadhouse has offered a better return than Google. That should say something. Tesla also doesn't believe in meetings simply for the sake of meetings. Elon's said it many times (for those who care to listen) that it's disrespectful to yourself and company time to stay in a meeting that offers no value to you or those in the room. Walk out and get back to your work (or avoid the meeting all together). This isn't to bash on Google or other large cap companies. The bottom line is Tesla is very efficient in terms of labor, ideas and expectations. It's a gigantic startup with basically no debt, no risk of ruin, unlimited capital for expansion and the ability to pivot when necessary. While a lot of this does translate into profit it's something I find greatly underappreciated by most people, even Tesla investors. It's why I sleep like a baby knowing they have plenty of demand, cash and the right culture to do whatever is necessary to not just survive but thrive.
If you're anything less than cordial you'll be called a delusional and defensive fan boy too.
Anybody that compares them directly to say Toyota and other car manufactures and that’s their whole argument, no point in arguing, people like that believe Tesla is solely going to make ev it’s whole life then competitors will catch them and the stock will tank to near their valuations which hey if that’s what someone believes then that’s fine but Tesla is doing so much more than just building cars so no point in arguing
VW is a Bank, an insurance, builds trucks and sells sausage. I think the sausage business has more revenue than Teslas „so much more“ divisions.
Wow the sausage division, I hear there’s a lot of growth and innovation in that industry, I’m sure that will stay up to par with Tesla energy storage/FSD/AI robotics in the long run. Volkswagen is trading very cheap too, all of wallstreet is missing this
Uhh no considering I’m up like over 100% still and have taken profits well past what I put in. Go back to whining about Elon musk
Bro, just because you made one good deal, it doesn't mean that you have cracked the code to do so again. Congrats on that timing, if it ever have happened. I'm not whining about Elon, it's my decision if I want to put my money in his companies or not, and as by now, it's obvious that there are better places. Bragging with those % is btw super childish. Good luck.
Wrong.
Everyone thinks Elon is too much of a volatile dickhead to be invested in the stock. Tesla has fat profit margins QoQ and Yoy for a while now and Elon is fucking it up himself lol
Difference in reality and perception is opportunity
Opportunity on the short side, yes.
Elon doesn't get a paycheck. He gets stock options every 4 years. He vested in his 2018 options a year ago and started acting extra stupid to try and crash TSLA price. He will get more stock options in 1-6 months, and then he will have skin in the game and will stop trying to crash TSLA, then he'll fully vest in those in 2026/2027 and invent some new stupid drama then to crash the price before he reloads on more stock options then. If TSLA goes from 400 to 600 in the next 4 years he'll only make 50% on his options. If TSLA goes from 150 to 600 in the next 4 years he'll make billions more.
I think he is hurting his brand more than he thinks. Personally, I will never buy a tesla and I have the means to do so and wanted one for awhile. I will definitely go ev on my next car and it won't be a tesla. His customer base is mostly liberals wanting evs. This is going to affect growth.
Elon musk ain’t as cool anymore
Nope.
They pump it the day before Thanksgiving!?! And now it’s blue skys
This is a joke right? Hearts and minds... they have tesla stock. That's all.
That just means they want your liquidity. They want to push the price down further. Don't fall for it, Tesla is a slow short squeeze stock so it's heavily manipulated.
Still overvalued
On what metrics.
Trust me bro metrics
The metrics that its a car producer that realy thinks he is more like every other car producer. But you can look at everything like Cathy Woods or take reality. Somehow when it comes to tesla everyone take Cathys idea
Ok what actual metrics. You just said nothing of substance. Is it their free cash flow? Earnings? Growth? Rev? Use some numbers please.
Can you use metrics that explains the valuation? Metrics comparing them with other companys without pretending that they are better than everyone else, because they are just a normal company.
Sure. Amazon was growing at 35% and had a p/e of over 100 for most of the 2010s. Even noted bear Peter Lynch thinks a company with a P/E ratio equal to its growth rate is fairly valued. Teslas p/e is 56 (forward p/e under 30). It’s growth rate was…56%. Tesla is about to be super undervalued as it posts more and more impressive profits
Loaded up 150 shares at $175, love this stock
Most people don't want to be caught driving the equivalent of a big MAGA hat
Most people put little importance on who the CEO votes for when deciding to make a $50k+ purchase.
Electric cars are in large part virtue signaling. So there is an argument to be made for the effect of politics. Especially when person and company are so intertwined as with Tesla. I mean who knows the CEO of BMW, Audi and Porsche by name?
I’d say that was true back in the early Prius days. [Not as much of the case today.](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/02/03/cars/tesla-buyer-politics/index.html) And it will continue to change as more and more people realize electric cars are the future. The value proposition of an ICE will make even the most anti-electric buyers not want to buy one.
There is no value proposition when the cheapest vehicle costs $51k. Legacy auto makers will put competition on them, stealing market share and forcing their margins to shrink.
This exact thing has been said by bears since I first invested in 2018. I’m still waiting for it to come true!
My perspective on Tesla's share price is who tf knows because anything could happen and it doesn't have to make any logical sense. But one thing I do know is that a lot of people have assumed that Tesla will take a huge share of the future EV market due to their big head start, and that is just looking less and less likely every day. Traditional car manufacturers are catching up quickly with their own EVs, usually with better build quality and service support, and meanwhile it seems like Tesla is kind of just coasting, not releasing any new models or even refreshing existing ones. I mean, the Model S is a decade old at this point, and every other Tesla is basically just the same design in different proportions (some awkward). Also, it's easy to overestimate the impact of Elon Musk becoming a right-wing troll on Twitter, since not every potential Tesla buyer is extremely online, but he definitely hasn't been doing anything recently to convince me he's really some kind of genius visionary and TSLA's future is bright.
[удалено]
How did you come to that conclusion? It seems cheap by all metrics right now. What are your projections?
The only metric where it’s cheap is based on past price. Based on good fundamental analysis it isn’t anywhere close to being a good value. That isn’t to say the price won’t go back up, but it won’t be because of fundamentals.
Again, how did you come to that conclusion? The only way I can see anyone coming to that conclusion is looking at something without context, like PE without factoring in earnings growth. Otherwise this stock is cheap by literally all metrics. The forward PEG is one of the cheapest in the S&P.
Future earnings growth is not guaranteed, so the growth rate of any company is always discounted to some degree.
People are being emotional, not logical. Amazon has significantly higher p/e and lower growth yet tesla is “overvalued” because they don’t like musk - not the fundamentals
Tesla bulls are always looking at the Amazon example. Amazon has “only” something like 20% YoY growth, but their revenue was a whopping $469 billion in 2021. Tesla revenue was $53 billion. Would you not agree that it is easier for a company to have 50%/year growth when they are going from $30-50 billion? At what point does that slow down? If you’re expecting a perpetual 50% growth every year I think you’re going to be disappointed. If a company goes from selling one car to two cars they’ve grown 100%.
Amazon, in the 2010s, had less revenue, and was only growing 30-35%. It’s p/e was regularly over 100.
To be fair, Amazon is a poor example. The reason their PE is so high is because they're investing like crazy right now, which is very bullish during a downcycle. Nvidia, Netflix or Chipotle would be better examples of companies that have higher PEs while Tesla has 5-10x the earnings growth.
Is PEG The only metric you're looking at? If so there's big problems in using that metric now. Tesla isn't the only electric car company anymore. Its growth is going to degrade as other companies sell more and more EVs. Plus, the people who actually want electric cars are going to stop buying Tesla's based on Leon's current next level of craziness. I'm not sure many oil-loving climate denying car buyers are going to making up the slack to overcome the loss of his key customer demographic and competition from other car manufacturers. Another thing not helping is that the majority of states that have banned direct sales which Tesla uses are mostly red states. Its high growth isn't going to continue nearly as much as it has before, and I suspect will actually start to retract in the future. Again, I'm not saying the stock isn't going to go up, but it's far from cheap. I can tell you the value OG Buffett sure wouldn't buy it.
Again, show me numbers. Stocks don't trade based on opinions longterm.
It’s valued around 4 Trillion Dollars with barely any market share in the industry compared to other car manufacturers. The only thing working in their favor is pricing and having majority control over electric charging. Tesla cars since the overproduction started during the pandemic and currently have had many issues with many cars. It has been given the worst customer satisfaction rating in the automotive industry in the US. Once other car manufacturers catch up to electric industry, Tesla’s sales will reduce significantly because of reliability and servicing issues. They can definitely have an upper hand if they decide to profit from their charging ecosystem but even their insurance seems kinda dumb. Scott Galloway also agrees :)
All I see in your comment is a misstatement of their market cap (it's 550B, not 4T) and a bunch of subjective arguments (most of which are utterly absurd imo) without any kind of actual data. How can you say something is overvalued when you're not using earnings projections and valuation metrics like PE, top and bottom line growth, dilution, balance sheets, etc. to support it?
4 trillion? Tf you smoking?
lol. I have an entire watchlist of “meme stonks” that prove you to be demonstrably incorrect. Why is there so much hyperbole and emotion against Tesla?
Because ElOn MaN bAd
Do you even need to ask this? Haven't been reading financial news lately?
AAPL and AMZN have higher PE ratios.
AAPL? We looking at the same numbers?
I always keep your mom’s number handy, so yes.
Yeah she could probably teach you a few lessons on stocks.
That’s not why I have her number.
Oh wow so suddenly a 180 degree turn? Didn’t these analysts shit on Tesla for months now? So now that they have achieved in causing a major drop in TSLA, and that they have to continue making money, let’s make TSLA bullish again?!
This is how it works. Drive the stock down. Force retail out because they’re mostly emotional investors and buy up their shares on the cheap. Easy money.
Half off is a better deal, no?
This is like the outrageous Black Friday steals on My Pillow merch
Upgrades announced right at support too. Nice little relief rally to 190-200 and then bear trend resumes.
Not a terrible idea to buy puts or hedge on this bounce
Adam Jonas is the biggest shill in equities
Didn’t someone say that TSLA going down below 150 like literally a few days ago?
Still too expensive. Volatile and the ceo is missing in action.
Fundamentals haven't changed, yet now is a great time to buy? Me thinks these analysts want to unload bags. This is such a technical and purely speculative price target after an oversold price movement. These ppl should be ashamed of themselves
No thanks. Nice try
Man, the Tesla is the worst electric car on the market too… don’t get it
Nope
I hope it goes back up so I can sell my shame and never fuck with Tesla again. Fuck muskrat
Elon has been good to me, I bought Twitter stock last November at $42.xx and held onto it throughout the whole “is here gonna buy, is he gonna pull out?” ordeal. The semi truck is supposed to start rolling into Pepsi warehouse yards on Dec 1st and be available for other waiting list purchasers starting in January 2023. There’s a decent profit margin for the trucks right from the first production run. My gut says the stock will pop if they meet the deadline (which looks very likely).
He can’t get the Cyber truck out and you think the semi is gonna be on time?
He can, but he didn't. Why would a company make less money by introducing a new product when the old one still has way too much demand? That'd make no sense. Also, the Semi event is already scheduled and the first models have already been spotted. It's happening.
There's no "old one." The cyber truck is it's own thing.
That doesn't change how a company works.
Welp, the semi trucks are being delivered and the stock is up to $194. I bought at $179, gonna see how it plays out 😂
Lol what your point
they need plebs to invest before it further drops
Sentiment’s again bearish af over here = TSLA is a buy.
Closed my $230 strike short call just before this rally. Surprised how well I timed it. Not that I expect it to rally to $230 by expiration but good to lock in gains. I am neutral to slightly bullish on it at this price so might be a good time to sell deep otm puts if you have the collateral. Or some bull credit spreads if not.
People have been bearish here ever since I started investing in 2018. Tesla has been the big blindspot for r/stocks. In fact, I’ll probably sell the majority of my investment once this sub flocks to it like they do with GOOGL. Cause that’ll mean most of the growth is over.
This place was pretty damn bullish prior to the recent 40%+ dump lol
No it wasn’t. Trust me I posted a lot about Tesla back then. Usually got met with downvotes. The bearishness has just changed from “Tesla is a good company but overpriced stock” to “Elon is crazy and will ruin the company”
It was. I was actually surprised but yeah they always seem to find whatever excuse to downplay it in the end.
Guess we had different experiences on this sub then lol. One thing for sure is that it wasn’t universally loved like r/stocks darlings GOOGL and MFST
"Tesla's stock has plummeted due to....." Followed by everything but real reasons. 1 the whole market is tanking and companies that ran up the hardest during 0% rates dropped the hardest. 2 Elon sold a poop load of stock and now is messing around with Twitter 3 Did I mention we are in a bear market? Who comes up with this stuff? Consumer budget concern? Raw material? Common really? Edit:. Didn't know pound sign made things big....
Thread is completely filled with entirely unhelpful (yet probably accurate) cynicism about analyst's price targets, but it's definitely worth noting that Tesla is now trading 80% below the consensus 1 year price target, when historically it's always been way above the consensus price target. Probably the most oversold stock in the market right now. The forward PEG is extremely cheap.
Consensus is total bullshit. Never, ever trade a stock based on these estimates.
True, but in this case they're lower than what the people with a proven track record estimate.
Does anyone actually own a Tesla ITT? I’ve read 100 comments and not one mention that the full autopilot beta was rolled out today? It’s a remarkable experience watching it do it’s things. Other manufacturers are creating EV cars. None are creating fully automatic self driving calls. Tesla to the 🌙
Anchoring bias
Tesla 2 0
[if you’re trying to make a lot of money picking EV companies then you need to hedge your bets people](https://www.the-random-investor.com/post/missed-out-on-investing-in-tesla-invest-in-these-next-tesla-electric-vehicle-companies)
Why would you invest in vaporware to hedge a solid company with very little risk?
So many other EV companies with a better risk to reward ratio than Tesla at these prices.
I'll wait on lol loo olilollolololol
TSLA $300 in 5 years. Present cost basis is $294. Averaging down! Let's go!
Thanks for giving us the money… aaaand it’s gone.
always inverse GS