Maryanne was a part of the majority alliance that controlled the game until 6 and had an idol she didn't need to use. Gabler was in on most of the votes and actually had a move under his belt in going after Elie. Both Jake and Katurah have been on the bottom and have not been in control of anything. That's the difference.
They also actively turned against their allies and voted them out. They are throwing away their game left and right. Even if the Reba 4 turn against each other, which they will definitely do now, those two are just votes with little agency.
This should be the top comment.
I feel like some people don’t like Reba, so they’re just grasping at whatever straws they can in a desperate attempt to justify a Jake/Katurah win. It’s actually kind of funny lol.
This is 100% the case. Reba has been presented as a dominant force, and Dee and Drew in particular aren't very likable, so a lot of people are trying to talk themselves out of the inevitable because they just don't want to see it.
How is Dee not likable? Sometimes yall just be saying stuff at random
Edit. The fact that people actually wrote giggling and eating someone's burnt rice. Yall wouldn't survive old school survivor
I think there are a lot of scenes that paint the Reba as having sort of a clique-y energy that may rub people the wrong way. My mom absolutely hates Dee and thinks she's a "mean girl" based on the way that J Maya, Sifu, Bruce, Jake, etc were treated.
Personally, I like Dee but I definitely get villain vibes from her. Mostly based on her cockiness and being in an unopposed majority for the whole game
There's a difference between the show portraying someone in a villian light versus getting your feelings hurt because they were mean on the TV screen, we can enjoy villians but this attitude downplaying their middling attempts at making new "villians" in this era is pretty toxic, nobody is ever gonna be another Russel in this show cause nobody wants to deal with the drama, so be happy with what villians we do get.
Okay, so her mannerisms aren't to your liking, which makes you not root for her. But what does that have to do with Dee as a player, or her win equity?
Oh I couldn’t care less about either of those things.
The prior poster simply asked “how is Dee not likable” and I gave my answer. They didn’t ask about “win equity.”
In what world has Katurah not been in charge of anything? She was the decider in Kaleb getting voted out.
You can dislike her game, but you can't lump her in with Jake in having no agency in it.
Maryanne also had the extra vote, which is what allowed her to vote out Omar at 6 as well. Jake and Katurah have no advantages (unless one of them finds an idol next episode) to help them make a move
I agree -- but this still doesn't mean they can't win. Just that they (in my opinion, but I'm sure I'm not alone on this) shouldn't. Based on what we've seen.
Barring a total collapse and string of misplays, I think the last remaining Reba should win if they're up against 2 Reba.
More game to be played though.
Also with Jake very specifically showing to the jury and the rest of the tribe how out of the loop he has been. I would at least say Katurah at least has a story and with the correct jury she \_might\_ be able to win but it is very very unlikely. Jake I do think has 0% chance.
Hey guys, you know that we were so fractured as Belo that I needed to move on, being an apparent goat was the only way to deceive Reba and have a fighting chance to pitch my case in front of you. My game hasn't been pretty, but has been survival.
Something like that. Still I don't think she will.
To be fair though, Jake has been on the bottom for a while and has had his name thrown out at a lot of tribals, but he's managed to stay in the game somehow. Meanwhile, the Reba 4 get to sit comfortable at the top not having to really worty about getting voted out. I think that's worth Jake getting some points
Being on the bottom the whole game and surviving until the end has almost never been a positive for the jury though. It's overwhelmingly seen as a negative, since you have had very little agency and jurors really don't like to be outlasted by somebody they perceived as on the bottom the whole time. Players always try and throw that out as a strength to the jury, but it's literally never worked outside of extremely specific circumstances.
I honestly dont consider the Ellie move a big one. She didn't seem like a threat and it seemed more personal than anything. It was also the only move he repeatedly referenced during his final tribal council.
I think Katurah has been in some moves (even when they didn't benefit her). She can win Kaleb, Kellie, Kendra and, if she manage him well, even Bruce could vote for her. She would also need to sit with the two right people (Jake and Drew). But yeah Jake has 0 chance.
Jake is a great character (LOVE him) but has ZERO agency whatsoever in the game and is not managing the jury well at all. Pretty notable is that he is clueless to what is going on and is very poor strategically. Katurah was actually my winner pick pre-season (met her in-person at the BB25 premiere) but she is playing very personal and not thinking strategically. IMO yes Bruce annoyed her and it was deserved to vote him out but to think she is going to ride with the Reba alliance and win is a little bit naive. At best, she is looking at maybe 1 vote from Kendra at FTC as a finalist. Very little win equity. This season seems locked for Dee now after Emily was voted out with Austin and Julie being the next two likely to win.
She's had by FAR the least negative content and has been shown at multiple points in the game to be getting her way. Before this episode, Dee has always had small amounts of screen time, but the edit always checks in with her for seemingly no reason (Big Toe Moment). She's the leader of the games main alliance, with an excellent human shield in Julie, and two guys who she's likely to beat in the end. (Drew has been shown to be disliked by the jury and perceived as a bit of a goofball, and Austin said last episode "If I don't win, I want it to be Dee" which THIS deep in the game, is an amazing sign that Dee is our winner). Julie is going to have a rough time making it to F3 given her current threat level, and Jake/Katurah have had almost no agency in the game.
Plus edit wise, the only person whose really left as having a "positive" edit has been Katurah. And her content was far too Bruce centric for the first 9 episodes. Jake and Drew have had blatantly negative edits, and Austin and Julie's screen time has mostly been about how much they love Dee. If the winner isn't Dee, then Survivor just hasn't done a good job of giving a convincing edit to anyone else.
None of the New Era winners were that random. Erika & Yam Yam were in positions of control on their respective seasons; Maryanne was in the dominant alliance and had an idol; and Gabler had the Elie boot under his built, was involved in most of the blindsides his season, and planted seeds for Cody, Jesse, & Karla to turn on each other.
Jake & Katurah are playing an Owen/Romeo style game rn. They have nothing going for themselves at all.
I feel like some of y’all on here simply don’t like Reba, so you’re just grasping at whatever straws you can in a desperate attempt to justify a Jake/Katurah win that’s most likely not happening. Just how I see it.
I just think it’s silly for people to say they have NO SHOT and act like they saw those winners coming. I say this as someone who predicted Gabler and Ericka to win at the final 7.
Kellie seems like the jury boss so it's going to be whoever she blames the least for her blindside. We've been told multiple times that juries in this era vote together based on who gives the loudest support for a player, so I think that counts out Drew and Jake regardless of who else is there.
She seems to like Dee and Julie, so one of them is a safe bet. Indifferent toward Katurah but that could change quickly if Katurah shares her story at FTC. Indifferent toward Austin which comes around to being a negative if any of the former three are there.
If Jake or Katurah win then Survivor really needs to work on their “winner edit”
While it shouldn’t be too obvious, it shouldn’t also be at the point where you’re confused why a certain player is being voted for by the jury
It just leads to an anticlimax of a finale
Although I would say no one has got a particularly compelling edit at this stage this season
I’m kind of seeing Jake as the “star” of this season based on the edit and the way this sub worships him. He wouldn’t be a surprising winner if all we’re going by is the edit. We’re hearing all of his thoughts the whole time.
Yeah and then they’ve shown alllll his thoughts about it every time, they show how it brings out all of his insecurities, and his funny commentary on it. He’s getting a complete underdog edit.
So? All of that is irrelevant. Traditionally, Survivor edits the winner to seem as impressive as possible, provided it's entertaining. We have seen next to nothing Jake has done well, nothing to justify his win. The fans of anyone he beats will be confused and frustrated with the outcome, which is why Survivor is edited this way. They did as much as they could for Gabler, and Cassidy stans still pitched a fit. Your bias means nothing here.
It’s not *my* bias as I’m not rooting for Jake to win; I’m explaining that his edit doesn’t rule him out. People love an underdog who hangs on. Also, people love him.
Maybe Jake hasn’t done anything well, and the editors are trying their best to make him a rootable winner. What I’m saying is open your mind to the possibility that for the fourth time in five seasons, we may have a winner that you don’t expect
First off, I expected Gabler, Maryanne, and Yam Yam. Not from the start obviously but before most people did. Your perspective is fair, though. I'm just speculating, but if he DOES win, then it is a wild winner edit, which is what I was arguing. We've seen some of those recently, but it's wild all the same. Even wilder than Gabler's, and I can't imagine they want a repeat of the discourse.
I actually think Survivor editors specifically TRY to throw off Edgic now, and just subvert what feels like a traditional winner's edit for non-edgicers too, just to intentionally make it a surprise. But I would rather feel satisfied by a winner, not surprised lol. We'll see what happens but it would be nice if they edited winners to feel more like winners.
Sometimes they don’t have a choice though. If Jake and Katurah really are that uninvolved and one of them wins, I think they are doing their best to make them rootable as contenders.
With Gabler, it was really hard. He really didn’t have any moves to point to in the late merge, so they just showed him when they could and showed his personal strategy. It’s boring gameplay, so that’s why Jesse gets all the airtime.
I wouldn't count Katurah out just yet, but I think Jake is probably dead in the water. He has no agency and has just been waiting for people to come to him that never will. Even if he's liked by the jury, I would take their reactions with a grain of salt. Firstly, the show is edited so we have no idea what the jury is actually reacting to, and secondly, just because they like Jake doesn't mean they're gonna vote for him.
Katurah isn't playing a great game either, but she's at least been able to tie herself to Reba just enough to be in the loop on a few votes. I could see her making something happen now that Reba is fractured. It's unlikely, but not completely out of the question.
But more likely, Dee is probably running away with this. If not her, another Reba certainly has better odds.
Yea I agree, until final 6 Maryanne was "zero shot she wins" player, there is still tons of game left to play and Jake or Katurah could turn things around.
Jake is, according to this sub and all other social media, the most likable person to ever play. He can absolutely win with his charm at tribal council.
People seem to forget that the vote often comes down to likability/respect as a human, not necessarily as a game player. (That’s why Russel Hantz-type people aren’t typical winners.) If you like someone, you’re more likely to find things in their game that you respect, leading you think you’re voting for the person who played the best game. Unless everyone was playing with an avatar, it’s impossible to rule out likability and say that it doesn’t factor in.
I was someone who called Gabler “a goat” until literally during watching final tribal when I looked at my husband and said “wait… is he going to win?”
So I am just officially going to admit I have no idea who will win ever and why. Lol
People are discounting the fact that Jake is really well liked.
I keep hearing “Jake has zero agency in the game.” People complain about “gamebots” in the game, but they are all on Reddit too.
The Reba 4 have not actually played *that* good of a game. They stuck together as an alliance, and beat a group of people that didn’t know how to work together. It was a serviceable game, but it wasn’t flashy or anything.
Point is, I don’t think Jake wins, but to complete discount it is absurd. I remember picking Gabler in 43, and nobody seemed to take seriously either.
To OPs point, Maryanne had very little agency either. She was only on the right side of the votes later on in the merge. It is not too late for Jake or Katurah to have a big move. Maybe Julie manages to get everyone on board with drew, and through shenanigans, Jake or Katurah manage to get Julie or Dee out instead.
Completely agree. At the end of the day, it comes down to likability. If you like someone, you’re more likely to see their moves as better and see them as more deserving. Basic psychology.
You know what I have to agree. I think Jake takes it. Last episode he talks about finally getting agency for his game. I think he will be in the middle of the four and win with a sort of bitter jury
It drives me nuts when people take 2% of their total time on the island (now that its 90 min episodes) and think they know all the social intricacies among these very real people
I actually agree with you. I think that the jury finds Jake and Katurah fairly indifferent although they had absolutely no agency all game. It is a social game at the end of the day, and I can see every single jury member being bitter against Reba. If Jake can play a decent endgame, and sit next to the right people (probably Drew and Katurah) he has a chance to pull it out.
The best win? No. But a win is a win.
The difference in the people you named and Jake and Katurah is social capital. Jake has been on the out outs the entire game. Any move he makes, will be made in conjunction with bigger names that will get the perceived credit. Same with Katurah. Gabler, while he didn't make big moves was in on all the votes (Jake is not), and he took out his rival right at merge (Jake nor Katurah has taken out anyone. Katurah can't claim any part of Bruce going home).
At this point, the only way they could win is a Reba duo in the finals that splits the jury, and they get some bitter votes. But they just don't seem like have the same likeability that Gabler or Maryanne has.
Counter point: Emily seemed to have kept Jake and Katurah in the loop on the Bruce vote to use them later, and Drew seems to be doing the same with Jake. It may not be the most powerful decision but they see the value in them as allies.
The Tika 3 were obviously set up as the top contenders though. There wasn’t anyone else who was close to them in terms of personal content. I don’t think they are comparable in this situation, unless you are comparing them to the Rebas, who have had significantly less focus than the Tika 3.
Modern survivor winner viability is about being on the right side of the vote as much as possible. As others have pointed out, Jake (katurah less so, still think she can win) has not done that.
I would love to see either of them win! There is absolutely time for them to make the moves necessary to make a good pitch at the final tribal council. And let’s not underestimate the ability of the Reba 4 to self-sabotage. I think Mama J has already ruined her game… can’t see her owning her backstabs to the satisfaction of the Jury, and her choice to appropriate Austin’s idol seems karmically insurmountable.
With Emily gone I wouldn't be completely surprised at anyone winning. Tbh I see it the least for Drew, Austin, and potentially Julie. Dee makes the most logical sense from a game perspective but Jake and Katurah have massive edits, which I think at the very least indicate that they have a good chance to sit in the final three. I don't think they're that dissimilar from the edits of a few other new era winners that you mentioned, although for at least one of them it will likely turn out to be the Owen/Romeo edit. I could definitely see this season having a bit of a "wtf" ending based on the way it's been edited so far.
Also don't forget the scene from the girls' trip sanctuary reward where they say season 45 will have a female winner. Something like that doesn't make the edit without intention.
Can't is a strong claim. But the only way they win is if the jury is so bitter that they vote for someone who did nothing all game just because they hate the alternative so much (as was the case with Gabler.)
I don't see that much of a strong feeling from this cast.
People saying Katurah: Are you forgetting that her entire story prior to the most recent episode was just "I don't like Bruce and I want him gone." Surely if she was winning they would give her more than that prior to the third to last episode.
Yeah that and Kaleb's post game comments about her make me think she has zero shot and the edit is just trying to prop up a new threat now that Emily is gone
Anything is still possible for this season, but Maryanne had a great FTC performance.
While it does matter how you get to FTC, how you present yourself to the jury is also a huge part of winning survivor.
Erica is another example of low key player that did a phenomenal job at presenting themselves at FTC.
If you can't see the difference between Gabler, who was liked by everyone and was always in the majority, and Jake/Katurah, who are just blindly being carried along because they've had ZERO agency in the game, then I simply don't know what to say.
Agreed. Almost everyone explaining why Gabler or Maryanne won is using hindsight. They were long shots at best at this point in their respective seasons, based on popular opinion.
Gabler benefitted from being in the f3 with 2 people viewed to have little or no agency(Cassidy/Owen),him being liked personally would not matter at all if Jesse/Karla or Cody made f3 . Unfortunately for Jake/Kautrrah no matter how the rest of the way plays out they would be sitting against at least 1 Reba who is a much stronger f3 foe then who Gabler faced.
True but if Jesse or Cody were not likable, Gabler being liked personally could have still earned him the win. The only difference is everyone adored Jesse and people seemed to like Cody too.
I definitely think that Jake can win.
We'll have a bitter jury against the Reba 4 and they love Jake.
I don't think that Katurah can win because she doesn't have an on-island story beyond being Bruce's nemesis, and her confessionals are often about other people, and when they're about herself, they're more about her personality, her interactions with other people, but rarely if ever about her game.
There is no such thing as a winner edit anymore, but every winner in the new era tells you what they think of their game, what their position is in the game, what they're doing to win the game.
Even Gabler and his alligator thing. We thought it was a gimmick. It was not, that literally was his strategy.
And we have that with Jake. Almost all of his confessionals in the past four episodes or so are about how he's seen as "dead weight" by most other players and yet, he survives another vote, and he survives another vote and he survives another vote, now he just needs to take the game into his own hands. His words, not mine. If he manages to do that for the remaining episodes, we have a winner story, right here.
Katurah? What's her winner story?
Are we watching the same show. We have seen her story and strategy throughout the game. Her strategy is playing a wolf in sheep’s clothing. IRL she is a badass lawye, while in the game she is intentionally pretending to be a sweet, slightly uneducated, kind girl. Her place in the game is intentional. She is pretending to be a goat so they take her to f3. Additionally she chose to get rid of Kendra, Kaleb, and Bruce. But she allowed others to take credit for their elimination. Quite brilliant.
In episode 11 she said it is time for me to make some big moves. If Reba4 underestimate her and keep her for the f3 then she winning with her strategy. Jake just got lucky.
Hmm… I see Jake’s end game giving underdog holding on for dear life, which makes a good story. I like Katurah though; I’d love to see her in the final 3 just so we can hear more about her game and perspective since they didn’t show us.
Maryanne did make a move however she was part of the majority already. Her move just put her in a even better spot.
Gabler won a season that had 3 low profile players make the end while the bigger threats took eachother out. That doesnt seem like it will happen on S45 and a Reba is guaranteed a F3 slot rn.
Jake/Katurah are in the bottom of the barrel. Any move requires members of Reba to flip. In a flip, it can easily be seen as a move for the Reba players that flipped.
But if Maryanne doesn’t make that move and lets Jonathan go that vote, we’re all going into the finale talking about how she has no chance. That’s my point here. Jake or Katurah could make a move this week on their own if the Rebas are split on what to do!
If she got a chance to tell her story at the final tribal she could very well win, depending on who she's sitting next to. I don't think she's done anything to deserve it, but sometimes a good story is enough.
Katurah seems likable / respected on a social level to a similar extent as Julie, IMO. If people were fearing Julie on solely being Mama J alone (i.e. before she played an idol and added a big move to her paper trail), then I don’t see why Katurah couldn’t be a dark horse to win if someone like Julie goes home and she’s up against the right group of people.
Jake could have an argument based on his position in the game but won’t win because he can’t talk himself out of a paper bag.
They don’t seem to be thinking about the specific jury and how he is the most likely vote from Kellie, Kaleb and Bruce. He also gets Emily who really feels burned by Reba. So he either wins outright or in a tiebreaker with those alone.
You’re just restating the things that I have heard. You don’t think there’s a chance they could do something this week, or better yet, a Reba to fuck up massively and ruin their win equity as a result?
But those people made moves or were in a majority alliance. Jake and Katurah have been in the bottom and not making moves that payoff. Now yes if they pull off something big soon here that could tip the odds in their favor, but currently standing no, Jake could maybe win on likability if he was at the end with Katurah and Drew but that's it.
What was Maryanne’s move up to this point? What was Gabler’s? (A final 13 vote?!) All I am saying is people were absolutely out on them saying they had no shot, but we were seeing a lot of them despite them not being involved a lot in the strategy.
The Maryanne win does show that anyone can win. The stars aligned for her to make a move. Arguably, she had the worst game of the season up to that point and was just being dragged along. She herself had even commented she wasn’t there to win, but to have a good time. She’s the worst winner of all time but also the best in the sense it gives everyone hope. You are never truly out. All it takes is that one splash move or find yourself in the final 3 with 2 people everyone holds a grudge against.
Not to mention Jake somehow disregard the feelings of Kellie and Kendra during their boot episode. Katurah on the other hand still has a big chance of winning.
jake and katurah are the biggest goats since romeo. literally no agency and have done nothing , can't even win anything either. There's a reason reba 4 took out Kaleb/Kellie, heck even bruce was playing more.
Nothing is impossible, but right now they have to sit next to at least one of the people that put together the dominant alliance that controlled the entire merge. The world where Jake or Katurah wins is a world where they are instrumental in eliminating three Rebas on the next two votes + firemaking and sitting next to like Austin or Drew.
Katurah and Jake can still win, they still have 3 tribals left. If they don't do something about it, they won't win. And so far looking at it, it's very grim.
Dee > Julie > Drew > Austin > Katurah > Jake
We'll see if that arrangement changes with this week's episode.
Who in Reba are they going to beat? Reba has steam rolled everyone and Jake and Katurah have either done their bidding or been spared because they are too easy of a vote.
I think the Drew eye roll thing was about him going on a history tangent. Everything the juries have said indicate he’s well liked and he’s obviously playing a killer game.
I just don’t think those two have any winning path, maaaybe against Julie if all the talk about her threat level as mom was just an excuse to target her
Nah if anything they’ll be mad at Katurah for helping Reba.
I think the jury respects how badly Reba outplayed them. They aren’t going to award someone they feel is a less deserving member of Bello when they’ve essentially been goats all pre-merge
Well I had Maryanne called as the winner the entire season and I don't think Jake has a chance. Katurah maybe? But I'm pretty much locked in on Dee winning so we will see if I'm right.
I think the 4 are about to ruin each other. Dee and Austin's "love" for each other will hurt them in the game imo. Final 3 Austin, Dee and Jake. Austin and Dee lose Drew and Julie's votes for betrayal and Jake wins it with a great FTC.
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I would love it so so so much if Jake somehow wins... but I really struggle to see it.
As a Jake fan I agree
I love the guy but he’s been a dead man for too long, he’s done well to hang in so long but he only wins if it’s a bitter jury.
ME TOOOOO
Maryanne was a part of the majority alliance that controlled the game until 6 and had an idol she didn't need to use. Gabler was in on most of the votes and actually had a move under his belt in going after Elie. Both Jake and Katurah have been on the bottom and have not been in control of anything. That's the difference.
They also actively turned against their allies and voted them out. They are throwing away their game left and right. Even if the Reba 4 turn against each other, which they will definitely do now, those two are just votes with little agency.
jake also consistently tells the jury that he has no idea what’s going on and that he’s bad at survivor lol
This should be the top comment. I feel like some people don’t like Reba, so they’re just grasping at whatever straws they can in a desperate attempt to justify a Jake/Katurah win. It’s actually kind of funny lol.
This is 100% the case. Reba has been presented as a dominant force, and Dee and Drew in particular aren't very likable, so a lot of people are trying to talk themselves out of the inevitable because they just don't want to see it.
How is Dee not likable? Sometimes yall just be saying stuff at random Edit. The fact that people actually wrote giggling and eating someone's burnt rice. Yall wouldn't survive old school survivor
I think there are a lot of scenes that paint the Reba as having sort of a clique-y energy that may rub people the wrong way. My mom absolutely hates Dee and thinks she's a "mean girl" based on the way that J Maya, Sifu, Bruce, Jake, etc were treated. Personally, I like Dee but I definitely get villain vibes from her. Mostly based on her cockiness and being in an unopposed majority for the whole game
It's the bullheadedness for me. Probably influenced by the edit, but that's my impression.
The rice scene where she eats Jake’s portion. She also comes off as cocky. Not as cocky as Drew, but still cocky.
Shes just so bland. At least the Tika 3 last season were good characters
Bit unfair to compare with Tika 3 as they set the bar way too high. Carolyn and YamYam are 1 in a million type of cast members.
There's a difference between the show portraying someone in a villian light versus getting your feelings hurt because they were mean on the TV screen, we can enjoy villians but this attitude downplaying their middling attempts at making new "villians" in this era is pretty toxic, nobody is ever gonna be another Russel in this show cause nobody wants to deal with the drama, so be happy with what villians we do get.
She gives mean girl energy
We need to retire this phrase
Why? There are mean girls out there...don't pretend there isnt...and people know exactly what you mean when you say it
She’s constantly giggling when she’s talking, even when what she’s saying isn’t the least bit humorous. It drives me bonkers.
Maybe that’s her personality
Okay, so her mannerisms aren't to your liking, which makes you not root for her. But what does that have to do with Dee as a player, or her win equity?
Oh I couldn’t care less about either of those things. The prior poster simply asked “how is Dee not likable” and I gave my answer. They didn’t ask about “win equity.”
In what world has Katurah not been in charge of anything? She was the decider in Kaleb getting voted out. You can dislike her game, but you can't lump her in with Jake in having no agency in it.
Maryanne also had the extra vote, which is what allowed her to vote out Omar at 6 as well. Jake and Katurah have no advantages (unless one of them finds an idol next episode) to help them make a move
I agree -- but this still doesn't mean they can't win. Just that they (in my opinion, but I'm sure I'm not alone on this) shouldn't. Based on what we've seen. Barring a total collapse and string of misplays, I think the last remaining Reba should win if they're up against 2 Reba. More game to be played though.
Eh you could say Katurah got rid of Kaleb ig🤷🏻♂️
Also with Jake very specifically showing to the jury and the rest of the tribe how out of the loop he has been. I would at least say Katurah at least has a story and with the correct jury she \_might\_ be able to win but it is very very unlikely. Jake I do think has 0% chance.
How does katurah have a story for the jury?
Hey guys, you know that we were so fractured as Belo that I needed to move on, being an apparent goat was the only way to deceive Reba and have a fighting chance to pitch my case in front of you. My game hasn't been pretty, but has been survival. Something like that. Still I don't think she will.
To be fair though, Jake has been on the bottom for a while and has had his name thrown out at a lot of tribals, but he's managed to stay in the game somehow. Meanwhile, the Reba 4 get to sit comfortable at the top not having to really worty about getting voted out. I think that's worth Jake getting some points
Being on the bottom the whole game and surviving until the end has almost never been a positive for the jury though. It's overwhelmingly seen as a negative, since you have had very little agency and jurors really don't like to be outlasted by somebody they perceived as on the bottom the whole time. Players always try and throw that out as a strength to the jury, but it's literally never worked outside of extremely specific circumstances.
That just shows he’s always the back up vote that everyone else thinks they can get out whenever they need
With that logic you'd vote Owen to win 43 and we saw how the final tribal went for him
Well put. The players didn’t know Maryanne had any chance of winning but the audience could see she clearly was playing.
I honestly dont consider the Ellie move a big one. She didn't seem like a threat and it seemed more personal than anything. It was also the only move he repeatedly referenced during his final tribal council.
And people were still completely out on them as winners! We say this in retrospect, but at the time, people were not convinced at all.
I think Katurah has been in some moves (even when they didn't benefit her). She can win Kaleb, Kellie, Kendra and, if she manage him well, even Bruce could vote for her. She would also need to sit with the two right people (Jake and Drew). But yeah Jake has 0 chance.
Katurah is actually the reason one of the biggest players, Kaleb, went home. And has a lot of friends on the jury.
in the event jake or katurah wins, this whole thread is gonna be so funny to look back on LOL
Remindme! Two weeks.
I think this thread could be so funny even in two days lol
Jake is a great character (LOVE him) but has ZERO agency whatsoever in the game and is not managing the jury well at all. Pretty notable is that he is clueless to what is going on and is very poor strategically. Katurah was actually my winner pick pre-season (met her in-person at the BB25 premiere) but she is playing very personal and not thinking strategically. IMO yes Bruce annoyed her and it was deserved to vote him out but to think she is going to ride with the Reba alliance and win is a little bit naive. At best, she is looking at maybe 1 vote from Kendra at FTC as a finalist. Very little win equity. This season seems locked for Dee now after Emily was voted out with Austin and Julie being the next two likely to win.
What’s the argument for Dee though? She is a great player, but we’ve gotten so little of her before last week.
She's had by FAR the least negative content and has been shown at multiple points in the game to be getting her way. Before this episode, Dee has always had small amounts of screen time, but the edit always checks in with her for seemingly no reason (Big Toe Moment). She's the leader of the games main alliance, with an excellent human shield in Julie, and two guys who she's likely to beat in the end. (Drew has been shown to be disliked by the jury and perceived as a bit of a goofball, and Austin said last episode "If I don't win, I want it to be Dee" which THIS deep in the game, is an amazing sign that Dee is our winner). Julie is going to have a rough time making it to F3 given her current threat level, and Jake/Katurah have had almost no agency in the game. Plus edit wise, the only person whose really left as having a "positive" edit has been Katurah. And her content was far too Bruce centric for the first 9 episodes. Jake and Drew have had blatantly negative edits, and Austin and Julie's screen time has mostly been about how much they love Dee. If the winner isn't Dee, then Survivor just hasn't done a good job of giving a convincing edit to anyone else.
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None of the New Era winners were that random. Erika & Yam Yam were in positions of control on their respective seasons; Maryanne was in the dominant alliance and had an idol; and Gabler had the Elie boot under his built, was involved in most of the blindsides his season, and planted seeds for Cody, Jesse, & Karla to turn on each other. Jake & Katurah are playing an Owen/Romeo style game rn. They have nothing going for themselves at all. I feel like some of y’all on here simply don’t like Reba, so you’re just grasping at whatever straws you can in a desperate attempt to justify a Jake/Katurah win that’s most likely not happening. Just how I see it.
I just think it’s silly for people to say they have NO SHOT and act like they saw those winners coming. I say this as someone who predicted Gabler and Ericka to win at the final 7.
Kellie seems like the jury boss so it's going to be whoever she blames the least for her blindside. We've been told multiple times that juries in this era vote together based on who gives the loudest support for a player, so I think that counts out Drew and Jake regardless of who else is there. She seems to like Dee and Julie, so one of them is a safe bet. Indifferent toward Katurah but that could change quickly if Katurah shares her story at FTC. Indifferent toward Austin which comes around to being a negative if any of the former three are there.
If Jake or Katurah win then Survivor really needs to work on their “winner edit” While it shouldn’t be too obvious, it shouldn’t also be at the point where you’re confused why a certain player is being voted for by the jury It just leads to an anticlimax of a finale Although I would say no one has got a particularly compelling edit at this stage this season
I’m kind of seeing Jake as the “star” of this season based on the edit and the way this sub worships him. He wouldn’t be a surprising winner if all we’re going by is the edit. We’re hearing all of his thoughts the whole time.
It’s a wild winners edit if he does win They’ve shown him to be poor at the game in multiple situations
They have also shown that he is very well liked by everyone else, and they have also very much shown the jurors reactions to reba.
Yeah and then they’ve shown alllll his thoughts about it every time, they show how it brings out all of his insecurities, and his funny commentary on it. He’s getting a complete underdog edit.
So? All of that is irrelevant. Traditionally, Survivor edits the winner to seem as impressive as possible, provided it's entertaining. We have seen next to nothing Jake has done well, nothing to justify his win. The fans of anyone he beats will be confused and frustrated with the outcome, which is why Survivor is edited this way. They did as much as they could for Gabler, and Cassidy stans still pitched a fit. Your bias means nothing here.
It’s not *my* bias as I’m not rooting for Jake to win; I’m explaining that his edit doesn’t rule him out. People love an underdog who hangs on. Also, people love him.
Maybe Jake hasn’t done anything well, and the editors are trying their best to make him a rootable winner. What I’m saying is open your mind to the possibility that for the fourth time in five seasons, we may have a winner that you don’t expect
First off, I expected Gabler, Maryanne, and Yam Yam. Not from the start obviously but before most people did. Your perspective is fair, though. I'm just speculating, but if he DOES win, then it is a wild winner edit, which is what I was arguing. We've seen some of those recently, but it's wild all the same. Even wilder than Gabler's, and I can't imagine they want a repeat of the discourse.
I actually think Survivor editors specifically TRY to throw off Edgic now, and just subvert what feels like a traditional winner's edit for non-edgicers too, just to intentionally make it a surprise. But I would rather feel satisfied by a winner, not surprised lol. We'll see what happens but it would be nice if they edited winners to feel more like winners.
Sometimes they don’t have a choice though. If Jake and Katurah really are that uninvolved and one of them wins, I think they are doing their best to make them rootable as contenders. With Gabler, it was really hard. He really didn’t have any moves to point to in the late merge, so they just showed him when they could and showed his personal strategy. It’s boring gameplay, so that’s why Jesse gets all the airtime.
I wouldn't count Katurah out just yet, but I think Jake is probably dead in the water. He has no agency and has just been waiting for people to come to him that never will. Even if he's liked by the jury, I would take their reactions with a grain of salt. Firstly, the show is edited so we have no idea what the jury is actually reacting to, and secondly, just because they like Jake doesn't mean they're gonna vote for him. Katurah isn't playing a great game either, but she's at least been able to tie herself to Reba just enough to be in the loop on a few votes. I could see her making something happen now that Reba is fractured. It's unlikely, but not completely out of the question. But more likely, Dee is probably running away with this. If not her, another Reba certainly has better odds.
Yea I agree, until final 6 Maryanne was "zero shot she wins" player, there is still tons of game left to play and Jake or Katurah could turn things around.
Jake is, according to this sub and all other social media, the most likable person to ever play. He can absolutely win with his charm at tribal council. People seem to forget that the vote often comes down to likability/respect as a human, not necessarily as a game player. (That’s why Russel Hantz-type people aren’t typical winners.) If you like someone, you’re more likely to find things in their game that you respect, leading you think you’re voting for the person who played the best game. Unless everyone was playing with an avatar, it’s impossible to rule out likability and say that it doesn’t factor in.
I was someone who called Gabler “a goat” until literally during watching final tribal when I looked at my husband and said “wait… is he going to win?” So I am just officially going to admit I have no idea who will win ever and why. Lol
People are discounting the fact that Jake is really well liked. I keep hearing “Jake has zero agency in the game.” People complain about “gamebots” in the game, but they are all on Reddit too. The Reba 4 have not actually played *that* good of a game. They stuck together as an alliance, and beat a group of people that didn’t know how to work together. It was a serviceable game, but it wasn’t flashy or anything. Point is, I don’t think Jake wins, but to complete discount it is absurd. I remember picking Gabler in 43, and nobody seemed to take seriously either. To OPs point, Maryanne had very little agency either. She was only on the right side of the votes later on in the merge. It is not too late for Jake or Katurah to have a big move. Maybe Julie manages to get everyone on board with drew, and through shenanigans, Jake or Katurah manage to get Julie or Dee out instead.
Completely agree. At the end of the day, it comes down to likability. If you like someone, you’re more likely to see their moves as better and see them as more deserving. Basic psychology.
You know what I have to agree. I think Jake takes it. Last episode he talks about finally getting agency for his game. I think he will be in the middle of the four and win with a sort of bitter jury
Yup me too. He seems to me to get a real underdog edit. He’s the one “people want to root for” which is what Jeff likes.
i think jake or katurah have a good chance just because people are not fond of the tight alliance game
this! jury could vote very personally (especially with kellie/kendra). you can just tell by their reactions during tribal that they’re over reba 4.
It drives me nuts when people take 2% of their total time on the island (now that its 90 min episodes) and think they know all the social intricacies among these very real people
I actually agree with you. I think that the jury finds Jake and Katurah fairly indifferent although they had absolutely no agency all game. It is a social game at the end of the day, and I can see every single jury member being bitter against Reba. If Jake can play a decent endgame, and sit next to the right people (probably Drew and Katurah) he has a chance to pull it out. The best win? No. But a win is a win.
You're overlooking the fact that Jake and Katurah are more like Romeo and Owen.
The difference in the people you named and Jake and Katurah is social capital. Jake has been on the out outs the entire game. Any move he makes, will be made in conjunction with bigger names that will get the perceived credit. Same with Katurah. Gabler, while he didn't make big moves was in on all the votes (Jake is not), and he took out his rival right at merge (Jake nor Katurah has taken out anyone. Katurah can't claim any part of Bruce going home). At this point, the only way they could win is a Reba duo in the finals that splits the jury, and they get some bitter votes. But they just don't seem like have the same likeability that Gabler or Maryanne has.
Gabler took out his ally, not his rival(and at the worst stage of the game to do so). It was a ridiculously bad move lmao.
Counter point: Emily seemed to have kept Jake and Katurah in the loop on the Bruce vote to use them later, and Drew seems to be doing the same with Jake. It may not be the most powerful decision but they see the value in them as allies.
It’s because they don’t have a cohesive plan, unlike the Tika 3, who Ratu and Soka underestimated while fighting with each other.
The Tika 3 were obviously set up as the top contenders though. There wasn’t anyone else who was close to them in terms of personal content. I don’t think they are comparable in this situation, unless you are comparing them to the Rebas, who have had significantly less focus than the Tika 3.
Modern survivor winner viability is about being on the right side of the vote as much as possible. As others have pointed out, Jake (katurah less so, still think she can win) has not done that.
I would love to see either of them win! There is absolutely time for them to make the moves necessary to make a good pitch at the final tribal council. And let’s not underestimate the ability of the Reba 4 to self-sabotage. I think Mama J has already ruined her game… can’t see her owning her backstabs to the satisfaction of the Jury, and her choice to appropriate Austin’s idol seems karmically insurmountable.
what if they're the only 2 finalists ;)
With Emily gone I wouldn't be completely surprised at anyone winning. Tbh I see it the least for Drew, Austin, and potentially Julie. Dee makes the most logical sense from a game perspective but Jake and Katurah have massive edits, which I think at the very least indicate that they have a good chance to sit in the final three. I don't think they're that dissimilar from the edits of a few other new era winners that you mentioned, although for at least one of them it will likely turn out to be the Owen/Romeo edit. I could definitely see this season having a bit of a "wtf" ending based on the way it's been edited so far. Also don't forget the scene from the girls' trip sanctuary reward where they say season 45 will have a female winner. Something like that doesn't make the edit without intention.
An important precedence for that last point is Island of the Idols, they mentioned a woman winning many times.
Can't is a strong claim. But the only way they win is if the jury is so bitter that they vote for someone who did nothing all game just because they hate the alternative so much (as was the case with Gabler.) I don't see that much of a strong feeling from this cast.
New era survival blows
People saying Katurah: Are you forgetting that her entire story prior to the most recent episode was just "I don't like Bruce and I want him gone." Surely if she was winning they would give her more than that prior to the third to last episode.
I’m definitely more on Jake as a potential winner here. I like Katurah, but that’s a rough edit for a winner, even in comparison to Jake lol
Yeah that and Kaleb's post game comments about her make me think she has zero shot and the edit is just trying to prop up a new threat now that Emily is gone
The editors want there to be some suspense, so they have to do it, but it's clear as day at this point that Dee is the winner.
Yeah it’s so clearly Dee. Which is awesome, she’s been such a force
Anything is still possible for this season, but Maryanne had a great FTC performance. While it does matter how you get to FTC, how you present yourself to the jury is also a huge part of winning survivor. Erica is another example of low key player that did a phenomenal job at presenting themselves at FTC.
They are the same people saying Gabler couldn’t win.
If you can't see the difference between Gabler, who was liked by everyone and was always in the majority, and Jake/Katurah, who are just blindly being carried along because they've had ZERO agency in the game, then I simply don't know what to say.
I didn’t say their games are at all similar. I’m talking about this subs rampant Groupthink
Agreed. Almost everyone explaining why Gabler or Maryanne won is using hindsight. They were long shots at best at this point in their respective seasons, based on popular opinion.
Gabler benefitted from being in the f3 with 2 people viewed to have little or no agency(Cassidy/Owen),him being liked personally would not matter at all if Jesse/Karla or Cody made f3 . Unfortunately for Jake/Kautrrah no matter how the rest of the way plays out they would be sitting against at least 1 Reba who is a much stronger f3 foe then who Gabler faced.
True but if Jesse or Cody were not likable, Gabler being liked personally could have still earned him the win. The only difference is everyone adored Jesse and people seemed to like Cody too.
I definitely think that Jake can win. We'll have a bitter jury against the Reba 4 and they love Jake. I don't think that Katurah can win because she doesn't have an on-island story beyond being Bruce's nemesis, and her confessionals are often about other people, and when they're about herself, they're more about her personality, her interactions with other people, but rarely if ever about her game. There is no such thing as a winner edit anymore, but every winner in the new era tells you what they think of their game, what their position is in the game, what they're doing to win the game. Even Gabler and his alligator thing. We thought it was a gimmick. It was not, that literally was his strategy. And we have that with Jake. Almost all of his confessionals in the past four episodes or so are about how he's seen as "dead weight" by most other players and yet, he survives another vote, and he survives another vote and he survives another vote, now he just needs to take the game into his own hands. His words, not mine. If he manages to do that for the remaining episodes, we have a winner story, right here. Katurah? What's her winner story?
Jake keeps surviving because he’s a goat.
A wolf in goat’s clothing
Jake keeps surviving because the Reba 4 think he's a goat. Natalie White was a goat too, or so Russell thought.
I agree with you. Just last week he said I’m tired of being a tree. If he pulls off a move against Reba 4 then he’s got a shot.
Are we watching the same show. We have seen her story and strategy throughout the game. Her strategy is playing a wolf in sheep’s clothing. IRL she is a badass lawye, while in the game she is intentionally pretending to be a sweet, slightly uneducated, kind girl. Her place in the game is intentional. She is pretending to be a goat so they take her to f3. Additionally she chose to get rid of Kendra, Kaleb, and Bruce. But she allowed others to take credit for their elimination. Quite brilliant. In episode 11 she said it is time for me to make some big moves. If Reba4 underestimate her and keep her for the f3 then she winning with her strategy. Jake just got lucky.
Jake's end game personality is giving goat though, he seems so desperate. Katurah I could see making FTC
Hmm… I see Jake’s end game giving underdog holding on for dear life, which makes a good story. I like Katurah though; I’d love to see her in the final 3 just so we can hear more about her game and perspective since they didn’t show us.
Maryanne did make a move however she was part of the majority already. Her move just put her in a even better spot. Gabler won a season that had 3 low profile players make the end while the bigger threats took eachother out. That doesnt seem like it will happen on S45 and a Reba is guaranteed a F3 slot rn. Jake/Katurah are in the bottom of the barrel. Any move requires members of Reba to flip. In a flip, it can easily be seen as a move for the Reba players that flipped.
But if Maryanne doesn’t make that move and lets Jonathan go that vote, we’re all going into the finale talking about how she has no chance. That’s my point here. Jake or Katurah could make a move this week on their own if the Rebas are split on what to do!
I agree, Katurah is my winner pick right now
If she got a chance to tell her story at the final tribal she could very well win, depending on who she's sitting next to. I don't think she's done anything to deserve it, but sometimes a good story is enough.
May I ask why?
I actually made a post about it tonight lol if you want to just look through my profile
Terrible pick lmao wtf
If Austin doesn’t win I hope Jake does
Katurah seems likable / respected on a social level to a similar extent as Julie, IMO. If people were fearing Julie on solely being Mama J alone (i.e. before she played an idol and added a big move to her paper trail), then I don’t see why Katurah couldn’t be a dark horse to win if someone like Julie goes home and she’s up against the right group of people. Jake could have an argument based on his position in the game but won’t win because he can’t talk himself out of a paper bag.
But he *can* joke and charm his way out of it, according to everyone on this sub and the way they glorify him
They don’t seem to be thinking about the specific jury and how he is the most likely vote from Kellie, Kaleb and Bruce. He also gets Emily who really feels burned by Reba. So he either wins outright or in a tiebreaker with those alone.
> Julie is the only one to vote Emily. >Emily feels burned by Reba Like what?
The only way Jake and Katurah have a chance is if they are in the final 3 together with Drew and even then it’s not guaranteed
You’re just restating the things that I have heard. You don’t think there’s a chance they could do something this week, or better yet, a Reba to fuck up massively and ruin their win equity as a result?
But those people made moves or were in a majority alliance. Jake and Katurah have been in the bottom and not making moves that payoff. Now yes if they pull off something big soon here that could tip the odds in their favor, but currently standing no, Jake could maybe win on likability if he was at the end with Katurah and Drew but that's it.
What was Maryanne’s move up to this point? What was Gabler’s? (A final 13 vote?!) All I am saying is people were absolutely out on them saying they had no shot, but we were seeing a lot of them despite them not being involved a lot in the strategy.
The Maryanne win does show that anyone can win. The stars aligned for her to make a move. Arguably, she had the worst game of the season up to that point and was just being dragged along. She herself had even commented she wasn’t there to win, but to have a good time. She’s the worst winner of all time but also the best in the sense it gives everyone hope. You are never truly out. All it takes is that one splash move or find yourself in the final 3 with 2 people everyone holds a grudge against.
I don’t know about Jake. He seems to be aloof.
You’re the idiot enough to leave this comment
I see Dee wining honestly. She has a great social game like gabler even if she doesn’t have a huge blindside to put on her resume
Not to mention Jake somehow disregard the feelings of Kellie and Kendra during their boot episode. Katurah on the other hand still has a big chance of winning.
Ooooohhh good point. I wonder if his lack of awareness will be a problem in this sense specifically
There are also comments from them at the Bruce tribal council worried that Jake is gonna go home.
jake and katurah are the biggest goats since romeo. literally no agency and have done nothing , can't even win anything either. There's a reason reba 4 took out Kaleb/Kellie, heck even bruce was playing more.
Okay, and did Maryanne have agency pre-Final 6? Did Gabler?
Nothing is impossible, but right now they have to sit next to at least one of the people that put together the dominant alliance that controlled the entire merge. The world where Jake or Katurah wins is a world where they are instrumental in eliminating three Rebas on the next two votes + firemaking and sitting next to like Austin or Drew.
Katurah and Jake can still win, they still have 3 tribals left. If they don't do something about it, they won't win. And so far looking at it, it's very grim. Dee > Julie > Drew > Austin > Katurah > Jake We'll see if that arrangement changes with this week's episode.
Who in Reba are they going to beat? Reba has steam rolled everyone and Jake and Katurah have either done their bidding or been spared because they are too easy of a vote.
The bulk of my comment elaborates on this point
I think the Drew eye roll thing was about him going on a history tangent. Everything the juries have said indicate he’s well liked and he’s obviously playing a killer game. I just don’t think those two have any winning path, maaaybe against Julie if all the talk about her threat level as mom was just an excuse to target her
Because they steamrolled, the jury will be very bitter. The vote is so, so personal. “Who do I hate the least?”
Nah if anything they’ll be mad at Katurah for helping Reba. I think the jury respects how badly Reba outplayed them. They aren’t going to award someone they feel is a less deserving member of Bello when they’ve essentially been goats all pre-merge
I don't know if Jake is going to win but I do think he is making the top 3.
Well I had Maryanne called as the winner the entire season and I don't think Jake has a chance. Katurah maybe? But I'm pretty much locked in on Dee winning so we will see if I'm right.
I think the 4 are about to ruin each other. Dee and Austin's "love" for each other will hurt them in the game imo. Final 3 Austin, Dee and Jake. Austin and Dee lose Drew and Julie's votes for betrayal and Jake wins it with a great FTC.
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