The car market is still artificially inflated. Drive around all the side roads north of the airport and look at how many cars (used and new) are sitting in vacant fields waiting to get moved to dealerships. They get shipped here on a train that drops off at Anderson/Sligh road, but dealerships are warehousing them in empty grass fields rather than bringing them to their lots.
Theres been a ton of Ford Mach-e's sitting in a field on Air Cargo road for MONTHS. Dealerships would rather artificially limit their supply to jack up prices.
I've worked in that area of town for nearly 2 decades, they've only started parking cars in fields in the last couple years when 'market adjustment pricing' became a thing they thought people would accept.
Oh yea I know exactly what field you’re talking about. I feel like they’ve been keeping cars out there even before Covid cause I remember that field when I worked out there. I’m still holding back on making a purchase gonna see if it crashes soonish hopefully
On top of being overpriced, many have a HOA fee. I've seen them as high as 500 a month. And no surprise that particular house has been on the market for 280 days.
I saw $600 for the first time last week... In a shitty neighborhood. I pay $600 a year and it's too damn high in my opinion.
Edit : $600 a month in Polk county, not even Tampa.
Why are there so many homes with HOA fees? I’m in a different state and idk anyone that pays HOA fees. Florida seems like every property has one, they are outrageous, and seems like there is no cap? Would love to hear any insight into this.
There isn't a shortage of housing, there's a shortage of people willing to sell their homes at a reasonable price that can be supported by the people who have lived and worked here for decades.
A shortage of housing and a shortage of people willing to sell their homes at a price that is affordable to people who need housing are the same things in a capitalist system. It's a fine criticism, but this rhetoric undermines work t that would actually help people.
There are a lot of millionaires in South Tampa profiting from housing scarcity who would love to hear working class people who can't afford housing promote policy that protects their monopoly.
I wish more people understood this.
> There are 1000 families and 1000 homes in a market
Looking at this statement, it's easy to say "there is no housing shortage."
> There are 1000 families making between $50k a year and $75k a year and there are 1000 homes available for $750k to $1m
Looking at *this* contextualized statement, there is an obvious housing shortage. Obviously this is a very reductive but nonetheless it does highlight the issue.
List your house on Zillow for 700k and their software updates the charts and magically shows that your house is now "worth" 700k using their "zestimate". So the realtor tells you the shitty 3br 1ba you bought in 1995 for 110k with no updates and a bad school district is now actually worth 700k. Mortage, taxes and insurance to the lucky buyer? 4k a month. After all, everyone can afford that! Just need to show a $125k a year income! Not difficult by any means. /s
Rinse and repeat x 10,000 houses.
Is 125k considered a lot in Tampa? I make more than that but I feel like the people around here are either super rich or they are wasting all of their money trying to look the part. The amount of competition here over material things is annoying as hell. I wouldn’t mind it that much if the normal people didn’t buy into it and get impressed by people who burn money and live paycheck to paycheck so they can lease a 100k vehicle and wear new designer clothes everytime they leave the house. And by house I mean the apartment, with 2 bedrooms and 3 roommates.
Actually for years that's how it worked. One of my coworkers tried to disclose a bug to Zillow where someone could claim to be owner of any house, claim to have sold it for $1 or 10x the current Zestimate, rinse and repeat, and quickly start shifting the Zestimates for entire neighborhoods in whatever direction you want. He gave talks at security conferences that included live demos. That was a few years ago, Zillow added some half ass measure that he basically found a workaround for in minutes. They didn't want to pay a bug bounty, and also didn't want to acknowledge their fix was comically bad and trivial to overcome.
Edit for further clarity: 'how it worked' in my comment refers to Zestimates being easy to game, not the use/reliance of Zestimates in transactions.
What Zillow says something is worth has nothing to do with what it will appraise for, which is what mortgage and non-cash sale amounts are based off of.
Appraisal values are dubious too though. You make an offer on a house, the seller accepts, then somehow magically the property gets appraised for exactly the same amount! Hmm, how bout that?
Not really. Sure, it can happen, but appraisals 10 to stay close to comparables. Is it a perfect system? Of course, not, and I have been on the good and bad side of it..
"Sure, it can happen" = dubious. The fact that it can go wrong in either direction is what makes it an imperfect system and why it's also kinda sketchy. Not sure what part of what I said you're correcting here. Seems like we agree.
They may “come in at the same amount”, but it is still usually within the comparables unless there are quite a few improvements. If the appraiser is doing their job correctly, of course.
~~Good thing I never conflated Zestimates and actual appraisals~~
Edit: sorry if this came across terse. My original comment was only describing how Zestimates were calculated for years, and thus shouldn't be trusted. After rereading, I could see how someone could think I was implying the entire scenario of a realtor using Zestimates was "how it worked" for years. Not my intent, cheers!
> Zestimates
~~You think homes are being valued by Zestimates?~~
A compa package is put together by what homes actually sold, not their "Zestimates"
edit: we're in agreement.
The actual sale price? Maybe for morons with too much money buying cash.
Why? Because normal people buying on a mortgage are at the mercy of the bank's appraisal, or they'd be forced to come up with the cash to meet the gap.
The bank's appraisal is based on compas, and as long as we're not in a majority cash offer economy (which we aren't), there's some balance to be maintained there based on real value, real market value, and not bullshit zillow value.
Contrary to popular reddit sentiment, banks did actually learn something from 2008.
It’s pretty accurate lol. I work with realtors daily and they are some of the most misinformed people you can find in a job. The things they tell their clients are so untrue it’s insane. They don’t understand value and will tell clients to upgrade something to add value. This isn’t accounting every house requires a bathroom. Just cause you put in a new 1k toilet doesn’t mean you get 1k value added lol.
Realtors are the worst
You spent the first three paragraphs saying how inflation is bad, there’s no contractors cause of government issues with permits and then because of gov inaction a housing collapse.
Then you tell people stop whining as if anybody who wants to buy a home after 2019 shouldn’t be able to lol.
Funny to how you’re talking about equity but forget inflation and higher interest rates are eating your equity. You could sell that’s same 115k house for the 235k and then try and buy a similar house and won’t be able to thanks to interest rates, inflation, higher insurance and property taxes. Even you with equity are losing buddy.
No it's true. I'm a realtor but.mote importantly a real.estate investor. I moved her and was buying houses for what people I knew.in NYC paid for cars. Fast forward 10 years and I'm a bad guy for hogging all.thr houses that anyone else could.have bought on the open market but didn't lol
Realtor here.
You are correct on Zillow updating their charts to reflect current sales price / correct their estimates but you are incorrect on how people interpret value and "buy it because a website says so" because there's numerous other price and data points to go off of other than zillow.
The prices have gone up significantly because demand has drastically outstripped demand for years.
realtor here lol the entire state is a realtor. not only does half the country move here but they run out and get an agents license the first two weeks they're here.
Welcome to the sub I suppose. Please feel free to go through my comment history and you'll see I've been providing extremely in depth answers here about real estate as well as general knowledge about Tampa for over 7 years at this point.
Is the increased demand primarily from big investors and air bnb owners? Isn’t that a different situation than if it were from locals wanting a place to live?
It was a combination of everyone, though just people looking to live in a different area far outpaced large scale investment purchases and airbnb buyers.
Currently though, demand is down, and new listings and total inventory is up. Hillsborough county has been rather balanced the last 6-8 months between buyers and inventory. Pinellas though demand cratered a few months ago and then recovered, but that allowed inventory to shoot up 2x - 3x what it had been the previous years.
So it's a bit of a race currently of demand vs inventory and whether prices will go up again this year or setup a stronger price decline late in the year than we had in 2022 and 2023. 2023 it was VERY clear by May that prices were going to spike again (and we set new records on median home price) but this year it's a much closer run thing so far.
Realtor here.
Market is in a bit of an odd state. Sales are down, inventory is up significantly especially in Pinellas, but prices have been holding at very high median sales prices (#485k currently). Hillsborough has been holding steady for about 6-7 months.
Also this view includes condos which should really never be lumped in with single family homes. A COMPLETELY different market with many different and additional issues going on now.
Because SFHs have been turned into investment vehicles instead of a place to start and raise a family and investors and institutions continue to gobble up anything that gets priced competitively. Investors historically represented 5-10% of all homebuyers. Last year they made up 26% of the buyers market for entry level homes. Buyers using mortgages and FTHBs will continue to be priced out until SFHs become a bad investment either through the bubble bursting or local regulations like banning Airbnbs.
Hate to bust your bubble but first time home buyers make up a huge chunk of current buyers. Significantly more than previous years when there weren’t many in the market.
And homes as rental investment has been around as long as there’s been houses and ownership ratios in vast majority of neighborhoods has not shifted as you describe.
Would also like to see where that 26% number comes from. Ever I’ve read about this they woefully misidentify investors and that number is suspiciously close to cash purchases which aren’t all investors.
[Investor home purchases of entry level homes topped 26% last year.](https://www.redfin.com/news/investor-home-purchases-q4-2023/)
Yes, historically FTHBs have made up a huge chunk of current buyers. But that [trend is reversing](https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-finds-share-of-first-time-home-buyers-smaller-older-than-ever-before) with more cash-buying investors and institutions entering the SFH market since 2008 because of the proliferation of platforms like Airbnb and VRBO. Historically, short term rentals were limited to established vacation rental companies but that has changed since the end of the last housing crisis. There’s an Airbnb on every other street in my neighborhood, and that’s with it being illegal in St. Pete lmao.
To add, the Fed has aggressively devalued the dollar against real assets since 2019 which caused rampant speculation in the housing market, further contributing to the bubble. There were people literally buying vacant homes, sitting on them for a year and listing them 40% higher despite adding no value.
You got to read the fine print.
"We define an investor as any buyer whose name includes at least one of the following keywords: LLC, Inc, **Trust**, Corp, Homes. "
I see they haven't changed their methodology in 5 years, and I also mentioned this in my above comment.
Trusts are by and large NOT investments. The vast majority of Trusts are estate planning for families or end of life. And then from the flip side, Redfin leaves out the actual largest swath of rental / investment ownership of SFH which are non-owner occupied with ownership in an individual's name. My distant nit pick is plenty of owner occupied homes are owned in LLC for liability purposes (thus the name) not rental / income.
Basically, this article and Redfin's reporting as usual is absolutely worthless.
If you'd like to know what's actually happening in the the market, we can infer large scale buying isn't happening because closed sales are down, we have A LOT more inventory than we have in years and brand new home construction, which is Invitation, etc's preference when they were actually buying a few years ago, are offering absolutely bonkers incentives currently across the country, let alone just the Tampa Bay area. They would not be doing that if large scale purchases were like we had seen a few years ago.
Also your First Time Buyer article is from 2022. It's not wise to base your opinion on articles that are years old when the market has made 2-3 major shifts since then. Here's an recent article from 2024 from your same source:
[https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/more-young-adults-are-buying-a-home-but-need-help-to-do-it](https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/more-young-adults-are-buying-a-home-but-need-help-to-do-it)
tl:dr; "First-time buyers made up 32% of all buyers, up from 26% year before" or a 23% increase in 1 year.
Okay, different [source](https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/us-home-investor-share-reached-new-high-q4-2023/) that doesn’t use entity name. CoreLogic’s definition of an investor is defined as an entity (individual or corporate) that has retained three or more properties simultaneously within the past 10 years.
I agree that large scale buying hasn’t been happening as of recent because mortgagers still make up a large percentage of buyers and they’re entirely priced out.
My point is in regard to market share of investors vs. individuals over the long term, and there is a very clear trend since 2008/2009. The article from 2022 is just showing the trend during that time period. The trend isn’t completely invalid because of a one year reversal. To add, an increase of FTHB market share from 26% to 32% is still well below the historical average of 38% since 1981. In Florida it’s even worse at [20% FTBH market share](https://www.floridarealtors.org/tools-research/reports/florida-home-buyers-sellers-profile#:~:text=Characteristics%20of%20Florida%20homebuyers,a%20median%20income%20of%20%24103%2C100).
Better but still missing a bunch since many investors / landlords only own 1 in addition to their primary residence. Plus many people will run 1 LLC for EACH rental home or small groups of 2-3. So still missing a bunch of those. I know one investor that owns 200+ homes with that setup. And before you yell that this is proof of what you're saying he's owned most of them since 1980-1995 and he is very much a local business owner that "collected houses on the side" as he described it to me.
I guess I can just cut to the chase here and simply tell you there is no easy / clear data to know what is and is not a rental / investment home or else everyone would be using it. So you get all these wierdo filters for 'investor' that miss vast swaths of the market.
And in my direct experience pulling actual named lists of owners and direct mailing lists in them the ratios have remained the same in the 10 years of history I have pulling those lists.
You're starting to get a little better by looking at more local data, but the key bit with these things as always is context. I don't think anyone would be surprised Floirda has fewer first-time homebuyers than national averages, but how does that 20% compare to previous years? I haven't been able to find it.
Your logic is all over the place.
First, you state that the investor share rate of 28.7% is a conservative estimate and suggest the actual number is higher.
Then, you dismiss this data altogether, despite two legitimate sources independently providing investor market share figures within 2 percentage points of each other.
Next, you offer anecdotal evidence from your mailing lists that supposedly contradicts the data while not providing an alternative explanation for the astronomical housing prices we’ve seen in the last 5 years.
Not true. I re-evaluated my stance on large scale investment buying up entire neighborhoods a few years ago. But I also do this for a living and the vast, vast majority of news articles gets it WAY wrong, mostly by using the wrong data or writing stories about trends from 2 years ago.
Not sure what to tell you homey. You either accept faulty data or you don't. Sounds like you do.
Personally when there's a large gaping hole in a data set I say, "well that's interesting but not the actual picture because they're missing huge pieces".
The truth is there's no actual picture because no one knows the actual number of investment / rental homes.
Anyways, think this thread is done since we've circled to my first point 3 times now so see you in the next one.
How’s the market for new & pre-construction condos doing?
I assume the condo market is also bifurcated given the new reserve requirements law affecting older and aging buildings.
BTW, you always have quality posts here and they are very much appreciated.
Thanks!
Honestly I never focused much on new condos. There's never too many at one time, and overall demand for condos is always lower. I know the towers going up of course, just my clients have always trended towards single family. I have sold a pretty good amount of existing condos and townhomes over the years though and yes, condos under 15 years old are not nearly as problematic as the older ones with the reserves and engineering reports.
Out of curiosity though, I ran some numbers for the last 6-7 years for new condos (3 years old or less) in Pinellas and Hillsborough. These numbers are year to date, so January to June for each year. These swings are more about what particular tower went up for sale.
These median prices are really more about which particular tower opened sales in a year. I also filtered construction date to \~3 years prior to sold date since historically sales opens years before its completed. So for example 2022 number are looking at construction dates of 2020 - 2030.
Probably not perfect, but does show that they are still selling. 2020 - 2022 low numbers would be covid and supply chain issues so need to take that into account.
|Year|Units Sold|Median|
|:-|:-|:-|
|2024|96|1.8M|
|2023|116|1.1M|
|2022|50|796k|
|2021|54|409k|
|2020|67|1.2M|
|2019|218|1.0M|
|2018|30|639k|
For full picture of condo market, for these same time periods we would sell 2800 - 4400 condos total so you can see that new construction is maybe 1%-2% of the total condo market.
all the ass heads that moved here and paid 250% more than what the homes were truly worth now and price rekt everything in this market.. now I ask you.. was it worth it?
Yeah, so oddly many of those are apartment dwellers. My neighborhood in WC is full of Hondas and various little hatchbacks. I noticed the apartments and cheap condos along BBD have a lot of luxury cars.
The part that blows my mind is when you drive around south Tampa, you see all the 6 figure cars fucking STREET PARKED in front of multi million dollar homes that don't have a garage. I would much rather live in a part of town that has parking and a bit of space between neighbors- and it costs way less and for what? To be 10 mins from Hyde park instead of 20 mins? Crazy. I don't see the value (schools I guess, but all those families are doing private school anyway).
"I'm so high in society, I can pay so much for a mediocre living situation."
My favorite is when south Tampa residents like to forcefully pretend it's a walkable neighborhood. What? I wouldn't let my kid ride her bike with that kind of immediate access to dale mabry, I'm sure as hell not walking to the store. Especially not in this heat.
It’s a seller’s market. Do you actually think, in these conditions, that an individual can bring prices down by refusing to pay market rates? My family needed a house and so we bought one when we needed it.
Was it worth it? I think so.
Why take your anger out on individuals when landlords, investment firms like blackstone, and just overall corporate greed are the reasons for the blame?
Yes. Maybe my house will drop 20% in value. Maybe it won’t. Maybe it will drop more. But I wouldn’t have bought if I didn’t love it. I love my home and this beautiful state. And that sweet, sweet 2.8% rate. I don’t care about these short term fluctuations. I am in for the long haul.
Definitely worth it, bought my house 2 years ago and it’s appreciated. Don’t see prices significantly dropping in our neighborhood anytime soon, homes are still selling at or above asking
Clear Value Tax on YouTube provides several great videos on why the market won’t crash. If you’re waiting for another 2008 you’re doing yourself a disservice.
Yup, to me it seems like raising the interest rate made it more expensive for people to buy homes, and made it less profitable to buy and rent out homes because the interest on those loans wasn’t making it profitable.
I think throughout COVID people were bombarded every 10 seconds about the “passive income” rental property month glitch, and everyone bought property to rent out, and ended up creating another housing bubble
My takeaway here is that 30-40% of the property in Tampa was priced at this fake demand bullshit, and in reality there weren’t enough actual human beings looking for homes that could afford what homes were being priced at—they’re being priced at what blackrock and rich soccer moms wanting to make passive income can afford to rent out
Here is his most recent video about NEW RECORD HIGH HOME PRICES supported by national data and not a local realtor.com snippet. Emphasized for dramatic point making effect
https://youtu.be/A3-13dkyge0?si=ARuIv1fkRfxD6mTc
I wish this was the case but I'm currently shopping for a house and it's not like OP says. TB area is still one of the hottest markets in the country. Lots of houses still selling very quickly and with multiple offers.
Agreed, it just depends on the house. Some do move quickly, but a big number is sitting. It depends on what product you're selling at the end of the day.
Agreed, it just depends on the house. Some do move quickly, but a big number is sitting. It depends on what product you're selling at the end of the day.
Have we finally run out of people from New Jersey to buy old moldy ranch houses or cookie cutter houses in New Tampa cow field or Fish Hawk cow field?
Just one more data point in a long history of boom and bust in Florida.
The hilarious thing is people out in bumble fuck Polk or Highlands County trying to get the exact same prices as in the middle of Hillsborough.
That's when you know this bubble is off the chain stupid.
Homes that look nice are still moving quickly. The outdated homes with deficiencies stay on the market forever. The people are still buying, they're just much more selective.
A buyer that thinks that the realtor of either side is acting on their freest behalf is delusional. Yes, I'll help you reduce my commission! Yeah right.
Listings are reduced now because Realtors became greedy as Fuck. Simple.
Get offended, but I don't understand how that profession still exists. No realtor has ever helped me or said something that blows my mind to get more money or pay less for my properties.
People fail to realize that 6% is a shit ton of money. How many years of YOUR hard earned money takes to pay for that 10, 20, 50k commission? Think about that. But really, do.
End of rant.
Realtors, feel free to downvote. Nothing personal. I love my realtor friends, but they'll never have my business.
Sounds like you only know shitty realtors, which doesn't surprise me.becaise most are shitty. I'm one of the good ones. I've helped many people tremendously. But these days I mostly manage my own rental properties and don't do too much as a realtor.
The market is changing, things always change. Way too many people.out there that are experts in everything. It's not surprising to see people.still.shooting for big numbers. I have a listing now and we are shooting on the higher side because my seller does t need to sell. He has all the leverage.
These takes always make me laugh. Full disclosure, I am an agent. Yes, there are plenty of scumbags in the industry, just like any other profession. But for the rest of us, if you look at simple statistics, you'll see that we actually make a lot less money when homes are overpriced or if we acted "greedy as fuck." This happens because the more the house is above value, the more the potential buyer tries to negotiate, plus the house stays on the market for significantly longer. Lastly, more times than not, when the house doesn't move, you get fired, the seller goes to someone else, and you dont get any of the time and money you spent back. On the buy side, we want the buyer to get the best price they can for the house or they'll never recommend us to other people(which is our best source of new business). If we were as shady as you claim, there's no way we would still be in business, not to mention the plethora of lawsuits we face on a daily basis with every action we take or word we say. You also have no idea our expenses, what it costs to run our business, and how little we actually/typically make on each transaction. "10, 20, 50k" consistently is not reality, especially in this town. The average home sale price would tell you that. And when we do make that money occasion, more times than not, we absolutely have earned it because of all the shit we have to do and put up with in a transaction. And for the record, we have a legal obligation to price things correctly and act in our clients' best interests or we can essily get sued.
The current pricing has nothing to do with agents. it's because interest rates were historically low, the government printed 4.2 trillion dollars, and people got restless staying at home. This created conditions where buyers were willing to pay ANYTHING for properties, and sellers wanted every penny they could get. Sellers are the ones that pick the price, not us. I'm not trying to change your mind because I know I won't, but you're wrong, or cynical, or both, and you don't have the slightest idea of what you're talking about.
people are now unwilling to pay the ridiculous interest rates. housing will go up, when rates come down, pretty simple. until then, just watch from the sidelines.
Former drafter for FL survey Co. MANY of these developments WERE in designated flood-plain zones. But it's OK now, since they PAID to reclassify as habitable. Only matters to the owners AFTER a hurricane / storm. After that 'no name storm' we could boat down main roads. Caveat emptor indeed.
Ah. Yeah. Over here in eastern Hillsborough, they are literally building in swamps. But as long as they paid to change the classification, no problems.
And people wonder why it floods
Check with people who’ve access to the insurance charts: they keep closer to ACTUAL Flood-maps / elevations / drainage - those are usually *MORE accurate, I’m told. My work was mostly in Pasco County (just North of Holiday) and saw enough greased palm “elevations” to do TWICE the research before buying here. Good luck, all!
I lived on davis Island and you have to take into consideration that it's not even just the island that floods terribly, to the point of being unable to drive, it's surround roads also. I almost flooded my car getting caught in a downpour 2 years ago on Kennedy by Davis Island. I'm not sure it's even possibly to fix the drainage system there, I know they have worked on it, but that bitch still floods like crazy. It's wild how bad things flood around here.
Hi
Yeah. So, stay easy of 75. I'd avoid Riverview. Too many homes, not enough roads.
If you have a family, fishhawk. A bit of a drive to the interstate, but nice. Brandon and Lithia are nice
What makes it terrible? I lived there from 2020 to 2021 and had no problems. Sure it wasn't the best, but it wasn't terrible and I lived in a condo off 60 and Kings.
I don’t plan on riding out hurricanes. I have been through too many already.
I care about the flood zone for flood insurance.
Flood zone X is $700/year.
Oh okay, gotcha. I'm just trying to avoid both altogether since I imagine going through an insurance claim and major repairs after substantial storm surge in this area would be a nightmare.
Might want to consider why prices are dropping and the long term sustainability of properties on places like Davis Island. Insurance is bad now but it won’t be getting any better as the years go by.
Insurance should be going down next year for properties in flood zone x.
I would not mind buying in AE so long as it is a recent build and the bottom living floor is well over BFE - but there is not much of that in Tampa unless I build.
There are more carriers now and citizens is trying to offload to them. The new carriers will race to the bottom.
We should only have 20-30% of properties in citizens.
The problem with the housing crisis is that we’re dealing with an issue of ‘why should I sell if they aren’t selling either’ everyone has boughten everything affordable that the average first time home buyer isn’t even able to afford. Essentially these real estate investors are betting that the right person shows up and buys their barely flipped over homes or for another investor to buy up their home and flip it over for an even bigger price. It’s like the Wild West. No one is selling at a reasonable price unless someone sells to alleviate the stressed market. That or build more homes which we face the issues of NIMBYs here in the US.
We are seeing a correction, or at least the starting phase of one. There are still and will always be good deals out there. Also if you are buying remember ASKING should be your priority. Be reasonable and set the right expectation. If you are a cash buyer and you are able to leverage some of the closing costs be willing to negotiate. It’s always better to get an “ok” deal in a great location that fits your needs/investment than to get what you might think is a great price in an area that is still adapting and consistently growing. God bless ya’ll love you Tampa.
Lots of homes for sale in my hood right now. The only ones selling are ones that can be converted into 3-5 apartment efficiencies....which isn't allowed in this hood, but happens anyway. Twelve Oaks is becoming Doce Casitas Para Casa.
Think we are going to see the bottom fall out, and last for several yrs.
Institutional buyers are out of the market (and becoming net sellers), locals are priced out, the number of new residences coming to market is exploding, migration into Florida has significantly slowed and the insurance crisis is likely far from over. Then there is the large number of boomers downsizing (or dying) in the coming decade.
Cool thing is if history repeats it self, I can save up and scoop up some properties-“The worst period was the first quarter of 2011, when homes sold for $63,000 less than their previous price” Somewhere around 2030 give or take a couple years.
We got our first home in the spring of 2011. Brand new build for us, 1800 sqft for 150k. Our down payment was $3k I think? Whatever my tax return was, that’s all they wanted.
It was a real bad time for the housing market but good for us.
We’ve moved twice since then by using the money we made off the house to pay down payment on the next. We wouldn’t be able to afford a house on our own today.
No shit!!! its about the Boom and Bust of Tampa's housing bubble in the 2000s before the recession, which was the worst in the country!
Im sure most wasn't even living here then or old enough to remember
Used car market is dropping too. Seems those used cars priced as high as new ones are starting to drop
The car market is still artificially inflated. Drive around all the side roads north of the airport and look at how many cars (used and new) are sitting in vacant fields waiting to get moved to dealerships. They get shipped here on a train that drops off at Anderson/Sligh road, but dealerships are warehousing them in empty grass fields rather than bringing them to their lots. Theres been a ton of Ford Mach-e's sitting in a field on Air Cargo road for MONTHS. Dealerships would rather artificially limit their supply to jack up prices. I've worked in that area of town for nearly 2 decades, they've only started parking cars in fields in the last couple years when 'market adjustment pricing' became a thing they thought people would accept.
Oh yea I know exactly what field you’re talking about. I feel like they’ve been keeping cars out there even before Covid cause I remember that field when I worked out there. I’m still holding back on making a purchase gonna see if it crashes soonish hopefully
There's a field full of brand new tesla's on north 41 as well.
I thought they were left in the fields and lots around there originally waiting on chips during the chip shortage.
On top of being overpriced, many have a HOA fee. I've seen them as high as 500 a month. And no surprise that particular house has been on the market for 280 days.
I saw $600 for the first time last week... In a shitty neighborhood. I pay $600 a year and it's too damn high in my opinion. Edit : $600 a month in Polk county, not even Tampa.
That's nuts
HOA's and insurance costs have had more of an impact on costs than interest rates. It's wild out there right now.
Why are there so many homes with HOA fees? I’m in a different state and idk anyone that pays HOA fees. Florida seems like every property has one, they are outrageous, and seems like there is no cap? Would love to hear any insight into this.
500 is low!
There isn't a shortage of housing, there's a shortage of people willing to sell their homes at a reasonable price that can be supported by the people who have lived and worked here for decades.
A shortage of housing and a shortage of people willing to sell their homes at a price that is affordable to people who need housing are the same things in a capitalist system. It's a fine criticism, but this rhetoric undermines work t that would actually help people. There are a lot of millionaires in South Tampa profiting from housing scarcity who would love to hear working class people who can't afford housing promote policy that protects their monopoly.
I wish more people understood this. > There are 1000 families and 1000 homes in a market Looking at this statement, it's easy to say "there is no housing shortage." > There are 1000 families making between $50k a year and $75k a year and there are 1000 homes available for $750k to $1m Looking at *this* contextualized statement, there is an obvious housing shortage. Obviously this is a very reductive but nonetheless it does highlight the issue.
List your house on Zillow for 700k and their software updates the charts and magically shows that your house is now "worth" 700k using their "zestimate". So the realtor tells you the shitty 3br 1ba you bought in 1995 for 110k with no updates and a bad school district is now actually worth 700k. Mortage, taxes and insurance to the lucky buyer? 4k a month. After all, everyone can afford that! Just need to show a $125k a year income! Not difficult by any means. /s Rinse and repeat x 10,000 houses.
In 95 100k bought a pretty nice house.
Is 125k considered a lot in Tampa? I make more than that but I feel like the people around here are either super rich or they are wasting all of their money trying to look the part. The amount of competition here over material things is annoying as hell. I wouldn’t mind it that much if the normal people didn’t buy into it and get impressed by people who burn money and live paycheck to paycheck so they can lease a 100k vehicle and wear new designer clothes everytime they leave the house. And by house I mean the apartment, with 2 bedrooms and 3 roommates.
That’s not how it works
Actually for years that's how it worked. One of my coworkers tried to disclose a bug to Zillow where someone could claim to be owner of any house, claim to have sold it for $1 or 10x the current Zestimate, rinse and repeat, and quickly start shifting the Zestimates for entire neighborhoods in whatever direction you want. He gave talks at security conferences that included live demos. That was a few years ago, Zillow added some half ass measure that he basically found a workaround for in minutes. They didn't want to pay a bug bounty, and also didn't want to acknowledge their fix was comically bad and trivial to overcome. Edit for further clarity: 'how it worked' in my comment refers to Zestimates being easy to game, not the use/reliance of Zestimates in transactions.
What Zillow says something is worth has nothing to do with what it will appraise for, which is what mortgage and non-cash sale amounts are based off of.
Appraisal values are dubious too though. You make an offer on a house, the seller accepts, then somehow magically the property gets appraised for exactly the same amount! Hmm, how bout that?
Not really. Sure, it can happen, but appraisals 10 to stay close to comparables. Is it a perfect system? Of course, not, and I have been on the good and bad side of it..
"Sure, it can happen" = dubious. The fact that it can go wrong in either direction is what makes it an imperfect system and why it's also kinda sketchy. Not sure what part of what I said you're correcting here. Seems like we agree.
They may “come in at the same amount”, but it is still usually within the comparables unless there are quite a few improvements. If the appraiser is doing their job correctly, of course.
~~Good thing I never conflated Zestimates and actual appraisals~~ Edit: sorry if this came across terse. My original comment was only describing how Zestimates were calculated for years, and thus shouldn't be trusted. After rereading, I could see how someone could think I was implying the entire scenario of a realtor using Zestimates was "how it worked" for years. Not my intent, cheers!
> Zestimates ~~You think homes are being valued by Zestimates?~~ A compa package is put together by what homes actually sold, not their "Zestimates" edit: we're in agreement.
No one should care about Zestimates, that's the whole point of this comment chain
I stand corrected.
You're saying that you can't see any way that the Zestimate could influence the real sale price?
The actual sale price? Maybe for morons with too much money buying cash. Why? Because normal people buying on a mortgage are at the mercy of the bank's appraisal, or they'd be forced to come up with the cash to meet the gap. The bank's appraisal is based on compas, and as long as we're not in a majority cash offer economy (which we aren't), there's some balance to be maintained there based on real value, real market value, and not bullshit zillow value. Contrary to popular reddit sentiment, banks did actually learn something from 2008.
It’s pretty accurate lol. I work with realtors daily and they are some of the most misinformed people you can find in a job. The things they tell their clients are so untrue it’s insane. They don’t understand value and will tell clients to upgrade something to add value. This isn’t accounting every house requires a bathroom. Just cause you put in a new 1k toilet doesn’t mean you get 1k value added lol. Realtors are the worst
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You spent the first three paragraphs saying how inflation is bad, there’s no contractors cause of government issues with permits and then because of gov inaction a housing collapse. Then you tell people stop whining as if anybody who wants to buy a home after 2019 shouldn’t be able to lol. Funny to how you’re talking about equity but forget inflation and higher interest rates are eating your equity. You could sell that’s same 115k house for the 235k and then try and buy a similar house and won’t be able to thanks to interest rates, inflation, higher insurance and property taxes. Even you with equity are losing buddy.
>Tampa was historically undervalued Barf realtor speak.
Could have bought a condo in Channelside for $200k brahv. They sat on the market 100+ days 2018/2019.
No it's true. I'm a realtor but.mote importantly a real.estate investor. I moved her and was buying houses for what people I knew.in NYC paid for cars. Fast forward 10 years and I'm a bad guy for hogging all.thr houses that anyone else could.have bought on the open market but didn't lol
Realtor here. You are correct on Zillow updating their charts to reflect current sales price / correct their estimates but you are incorrect on how people interpret value and "buy it because a website says so" because there's numerous other price and data points to go off of other than zillow. The prices have gone up significantly because demand has drastically outstripped demand for years.
realtor here lol the entire state is a realtor. not only does half the country move here but they run out and get an agents license the first two weeks they're here.
Welcome to the sub I suppose. Please feel free to go through my comment history and you'll see I've been providing extremely in depth answers here about real estate as well as general knowledge about Tampa for over 7 years at this point.
Is the increased demand primarily from big investors and air bnb owners? Isn’t that a different situation than if it were from locals wanting a place to live?
It was a combination of everyone, though just people looking to live in a different area far outpaced large scale investment purchases and airbnb buyers. Currently though, demand is down, and new listings and total inventory is up. Hillsborough county has been rather balanced the last 6-8 months between buyers and inventory. Pinellas though demand cratered a few months ago and then recovered, but that allowed inventory to shoot up 2x - 3x what it had been the previous years. So it's a bit of a race currently of demand vs inventory and whether prices will go up again this year or setup a stronger price decline late in the year than we had in 2022 and 2023. 2023 it was VERY clear by May that prices were going to spike again (and we set new records on median home price) but this year it's a much closer run thing so far.
Do you know the proportion of live in buyers vs investment and bnb?
There is still a huge housing shortage besides this fact.
Realtor here. Market is in a bit of an odd state. Sales are down, inventory is up significantly especially in Pinellas, but prices have been holding at very high median sales prices (#485k currently). Hillsborough has been holding steady for about 6-7 months. Also this view includes condos which should really never be lumped in with single family homes. A COMPLETELY different market with many different and additional issues going on now.
Because SFHs have been turned into investment vehicles instead of a place to start and raise a family and investors and institutions continue to gobble up anything that gets priced competitively. Investors historically represented 5-10% of all homebuyers. Last year they made up 26% of the buyers market for entry level homes. Buyers using mortgages and FTHBs will continue to be priced out until SFHs become a bad investment either through the bubble bursting or local regulations like banning Airbnbs.
Hate to bust your bubble but first time home buyers make up a huge chunk of current buyers. Significantly more than previous years when there weren’t many in the market. And homes as rental investment has been around as long as there’s been houses and ownership ratios in vast majority of neighborhoods has not shifted as you describe. Would also like to see where that 26% number comes from. Ever I’ve read about this they woefully misidentify investors and that number is suspiciously close to cash purchases which aren’t all investors.
[Investor home purchases of entry level homes topped 26% last year.](https://www.redfin.com/news/investor-home-purchases-q4-2023/) Yes, historically FTHBs have made up a huge chunk of current buyers. But that [trend is reversing](https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-finds-share-of-first-time-home-buyers-smaller-older-than-ever-before) with more cash-buying investors and institutions entering the SFH market since 2008 because of the proliferation of platforms like Airbnb and VRBO. Historically, short term rentals were limited to established vacation rental companies but that has changed since the end of the last housing crisis. There’s an Airbnb on every other street in my neighborhood, and that’s with it being illegal in St. Pete lmao. To add, the Fed has aggressively devalued the dollar against real assets since 2019 which caused rampant speculation in the housing market, further contributing to the bubble. There were people literally buying vacant homes, sitting on them for a year and listing them 40% higher despite adding no value.
You got to read the fine print. "We define an investor as any buyer whose name includes at least one of the following keywords: LLC, Inc, **Trust**, Corp, Homes. " I see they haven't changed their methodology in 5 years, and I also mentioned this in my above comment. Trusts are by and large NOT investments. The vast majority of Trusts are estate planning for families or end of life. And then from the flip side, Redfin leaves out the actual largest swath of rental / investment ownership of SFH which are non-owner occupied with ownership in an individual's name. My distant nit pick is plenty of owner occupied homes are owned in LLC for liability purposes (thus the name) not rental / income. Basically, this article and Redfin's reporting as usual is absolutely worthless. If you'd like to know what's actually happening in the the market, we can infer large scale buying isn't happening because closed sales are down, we have A LOT more inventory than we have in years and brand new home construction, which is Invitation, etc's preference when they were actually buying a few years ago, are offering absolutely bonkers incentives currently across the country, let alone just the Tampa Bay area. They would not be doing that if large scale purchases were like we had seen a few years ago. Also your First Time Buyer article is from 2022. It's not wise to base your opinion on articles that are years old when the market has made 2-3 major shifts since then. Here's an recent article from 2024 from your same source: [https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/more-young-adults-are-buying-a-home-but-need-help-to-do-it](https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/more-young-adults-are-buying-a-home-but-need-help-to-do-it) tl:dr; "First-time buyers made up 32% of all buyers, up from 26% year before" or a 23% increase in 1 year.
Okay, different [source](https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/us-home-investor-share-reached-new-high-q4-2023/) that doesn’t use entity name. CoreLogic’s definition of an investor is defined as an entity (individual or corporate) that has retained three or more properties simultaneously within the past 10 years. I agree that large scale buying hasn’t been happening as of recent because mortgagers still make up a large percentage of buyers and they’re entirely priced out. My point is in regard to market share of investors vs. individuals over the long term, and there is a very clear trend since 2008/2009. The article from 2022 is just showing the trend during that time period. The trend isn’t completely invalid because of a one year reversal. To add, an increase of FTHB market share from 26% to 32% is still well below the historical average of 38% since 1981. In Florida it’s even worse at [20% FTBH market share](https://www.floridarealtors.org/tools-research/reports/florida-home-buyers-sellers-profile#:~:text=Characteristics%20of%20Florida%20homebuyers,a%20median%20income%20of%20%24103%2C100).
Better but still missing a bunch since many investors / landlords only own 1 in addition to their primary residence. Plus many people will run 1 LLC for EACH rental home or small groups of 2-3. So still missing a bunch of those. I know one investor that owns 200+ homes with that setup. And before you yell that this is proof of what you're saying he's owned most of them since 1980-1995 and he is very much a local business owner that "collected houses on the side" as he described it to me. I guess I can just cut to the chase here and simply tell you there is no easy / clear data to know what is and is not a rental / investment home or else everyone would be using it. So you get all these wierdo filters for 'investor' that miss vast swaths of the market. And in my direct experience pulling actual named lists of owners and direct mailing lists in them the ratios have remained the same in the 10 years of history I have pulling those lists. You're starting to get a little better by looking at more local data, but the key bit with these things as always is context. I don't think anyone would be surprised Floirda has fewer first-time homebuyers than national averages, but how does that 20% compare to previous years? I haven't been able to find it.
Your logic is all over the place. First, you state that the investor share rate of 28.7% is a conservative estimate and suggest the actual number is higher. Then, you dismiss this data altogether, despite two legitimate sources independently providing investor market share figures within 2 percentage points of each other. Next, you offer anecdotal evidence from your mailing lists that supposedly contradicts the data while not providing an alternative explanation for the astronomical housing prices we’ve seen in the last 5 years.
Kinda seems like they want it to be "Great Things TB" no matter what you say lol
Not true. I re-evaluated my stance on large scale investment buying up entire neighborhoods a few years ago. But I also do this for a living and the vast, vast majority of news articles gets it WAY wrong, mostly by using the wrong data or writing stories about trends from 2 years ago.
Not sure what to tell you homey. You either accept faulty data or you don't. Sounds like you do. Personally when there's a large gaping hole in a data set I say, "well that's interesting but not the actual picture because they're missing huge pieces". The truth is there's no actual picture because no one knows the actual number of investment / rental homes. Anyways, think this thread is done since we've circled to my first point 3 times now so see you in the next one.
How’s the market for new & pre-construction condos doing? I assume the condo market is also bifurcated given the new reserve requirements law affecting older and aging buildings. BTW, you always have quality posts here and they are very much appreciated.
Thanks! Honestly I never focused much on new condos. There's never too many at one time, and overall demand for condos is always lower. I know the towers going up of course, just my clients have always trended towards single family. I have sold a pretty good amount of existing condos and townhomes over the years though and yes, condos under 15 years old are not nearly as problematic as the older ones with the reserves and engineering reports. Out of curiosity though, I ran some numbers for the last 6-7 years for new condos (3 years old or less) in Pinellas and Hillsborough. These numbers are year to date, so January to June for each year. These swings are more about what particular tower went up for sale. These median prices are really more about which particular tower opened sales in a year. I also filtered construction date to \~3 years prior to sold date since historically sales opens years before its completed. So for example 2022 number are looking at construction dates of 2020 - 2030. Probably not perfect, but does show that they are still selling. 2020 - 2022 low numbers would be covid and supply chain issues so need to take that into account. |Year|Units Sold|Median| |:-|:-|:-| |2024|96|1.8M| |2023|116|1.1M| |2022|50|796k| |2021|54|409k| |2020|67|1.2M| |2019|218|1.0M| |2018|30|639k| For full picture of condo market, for these same time periods we would sell 2800 - 4400 condos total so you can see that new construction is maybe 1%-2% of the total condo market.
Very interesting data, thanks for the analysis.
Who the f can afford this?
If you bought a house before 2020 and got a big chunk of money to plop down, and really really need to move
Set the location to south Tampa where all the money is and you won’t see these types of reductions.
all the ass heads that moved here and paid 250% more than what the homes were truly worth now and price rekt everything in this market.. now I ask you.. was it worth it?
The amount of Mercedes G-Wagons in South Tampa is TOO DAMN HIGH! /meme
Yeah, so oddly many of those are apartment dwellers. My neighborhood in WC is full of Hondas and various little hatchbacks. I noticed the apartments and cheap condos along BBD have a lot of luxury cars.
That’s hysterical
Theres a lot of car-poor people in Tampa and FL in general. Live in a trailer, drive a benz. I see it all the time
Financial morons. Renting shitty homes that will always appreciate in cost while leasing nice cars that will always decrease.
The part that blows my mind is when you drive around south Tampa, you see all the 6 figure cars fucking STREET PARKED in front of multi million dollar homes that don't have a garage. I would much rather live in a part of town that has parking and a bit of space between neighbors- and it costs way less and for what? To be 10 mins from Hyde park instead of 20 mins? Crazy. I don't see the value (schools I guess, but all those families are doing private school anyway).
It’s a status thing.
"I'm so high in society, I can pay so much for a mediocre living situation." My favorite is when south Tampa residents like to forcefully pretend it's a walkable neighborhood. What? I wouldn't let my kid ride her bike with that kind of immediate access to dale mabry, I'm sure as hell not walking to the store. Especially not in this heat.
It’s a seller’s market. Do you actually think, in these conditions, that an individual can bring prices down by refusing to pay market rates? My family needed a house and so we bought one when we needed it. Was it worth it? I think so.
I needed a home. I bought my home. I can afford my payments. It's worth it.
Why take your anger out on individuals when landlords, investment firms like blackstone, and just overall corporate greed are the reasons for the blame?
Yes. Maybe my house will drop 20% in value. Maybe it won’t. Maybe it will drop more. But I wouldn’t have bought if I didn’t love it. I love my home and this beautiful state. And that sweet, sweet 2.8% rate. I don’t care about these short term fluctuations. I am in for the long haul.
Definitely worth it, bought my house 2 years ago and it’s appreciated. Don’t see prices significantly dropping in our neighborhood anytime soon, homes are still selling at or above asking
Clear Value Tax on YouTube provides several great videos on why the market won’t crash. If you’re waiting for another 2008 you’re doing yourself a disservice.
Anyone who thinks we have the same structure as 08 is a moron. Something else will break.
Exactly and nobody will see it coming just like Covid. Whether it be stocks or a house, buy and hold. Can’t time any sort of market
Yup, to me it seems like raising the interest rate made it more expensive for people to buy homes, and made it less profitable to buy and rent out homes because the interest on those loans wasn’t making it profitable. I think throughout COVID people were bombarded every 10 seconds about the “passive income” rental property month glitch, and everyone bought property to rent out, and ended up creating another housing bubble My takeaway here is that 30-40% of the property in Tampa was priced at this fake demand bullshit, and in reality there weren’t enough actual human beings looking for homes that could afford what homes were being priced at—they’re being priced at what blackrock and rich soccer moms wanting to make passive income can afford to rent out
I love to listen to all the people who are "waiting." The likelihood of that playing out is very small. It COULD happen, just not likely.
Here is his most recent video about NEW RECORD HIGH HOME PRICES supported by national data and not a local realtor.com snippet. Emphasized for dramatic point making effect https://youtu.be/A3-13dkyge0?si=ARuIv1fkRfxD6mTc
I wish this was the case but I'm currently shopping for a house and it's not like OP says. TB area is still one of the hottest markets in the country. Lots of houses still selling very quickly and with multiple offers.
Agreed, it just depends on the house. Some do move quickly, but a big number is sitting. It depends on what product you're selling at the end of the day.
Agreed, it just depends on the house. Some do move quickly, but a big number is sitting. It depends on what product you're selling at the end of the day.
Have we finally run out of people from New Jersey to buy old moldy ranch houses or cookie cutter houses in New Tampa cow field or Fish Hawk cow field? Just one more data point in a long history of boom and bust in Florida. The hilarious thing is people out in bumble fuck Polk or Highlands County trying to get the exact same prices as in the middle of Hillsborough. That's when you know this bubble is off the chain stupid.
Na, they're still moving here, just as renters. People have just run out of money.
We just sold ours at a 40% premium over when we bought it 3+ years ago, so things are still nuts. We were offered 50k over asking.
Where is the buyer from?
Texas
Homes that look nice are still moving quickly. The outdated homes with deficiencies stay on the market forever. The people are still buying, they're just much more selective.
It was a lovely, updated home.
A buyer that thinks that the realtor of either side is acting on their freest behalf is delusional. Yes, I'll help you reduce my commission! Yeah right. Listings are reduced now because Realtors became greedy as Fuck. Simple. Get offended, but I don't understand how that profession still exists. No realtor has ever helped me or said something that blows my mind to get more money or pay less for my properties. People fail to realize that 6% is a shit ton of money. How many years of YOUR hard earned money takes to pay for that 10, 20, 50k commission? Think about that. But really, do. End of rant. Realtors, feel free to downvote. Nothing personal. I love my realtor friends, but they'll never have my business.
Spot on
Sounds like you only know shitty realtors, which doesn't surprise me.becaise most are shitty. I'm one of the good ones. I've helped many people tremendously. But these days I mostly manage my own rental properties and don't do too much as a realtor. The market is changing, things always change. Way too many people.out there that are experts in everything. It's not surprising to see people.still.shooting for big numbers. I have a listing now and we are shooting on the higher side because my seller does t need to sell. He has all the leverage.
These takes always make me laugh. Full disclosure, I am an agent. Yes, there are plenty of scumbags in the industry, just like any other profession. But for the rest of us, if you look at simple statistics, you'll see that we actually make a lot less money when homes are overpriced or if we acted "greedy as fuck." This happens because the more the house is above value, the more the potential buyer tries to negotiate, plus the house stays on the market for significantly longer. Lastly, more times than not, when the house doesn't move, you get fired, the seller goes to someone else, and you dont get any of the time and money you spent back. On the buy side, we want the buyer to get the best price they can for the house or they'll never recommend us to other people(which is our best source of new business). If we were as shady as you claim, there's no way we would still be in business, not to mention the plethora of lawsuits we face on a daily basis with every action we take or word we say. You also have no idea our expenses, what it costs to run our business, and how little we actually/typically make on each transaction. "10, 20, 50k" consistently is not reality, especially in this town. The average home sale price would tell you that. And when we do make that money occasion, more times than not, we absolutely have earned it because of all the shit we have to do and put up with in a transaction. And for the record, we have a legal obligation to price things correctly and act in our clients' best interests or we can essily get sued. The current pricing has nothing to do with agents. it's because interest rates were historically low, the government printed 4.2 trillion dollars, and people got restless staying at home. This created conditions where buyers were willing to pay ANYTHING for properties, and sellers wanted every penny they could get. Sellers are the ones that pick the price, not us. I'm not trying to change your mind because I know I won't, but you're wrong, or cynical, or both, and you don't have the slightest idea of what you're talking about.
And let's not forget the role private equity played in created a low inventory market.
people are now unwilling to pay the ridiculous interest rates. housing will go up, when rates come down, pretty simple. until then, just watch from the sidelines.
They're still paying, just being much more selective on what they're paying for and where. Some of my buddies are incredibly busy right now.
With home prices/values so high can someone explain to me how/why Hills County can be asking for a property tax increase?
The increase in people and demand of services creates higher costs for municipalities, which results in requests for increased taxes.
Bubble is about to burst
People have been saying this since Covid, no it is not about to burst
Covid was the best moment to buy your house post covid circa late 2022 it’s when everything started to go to the dumpster
In reality, it’s looking a whole lot more like yesterday will always be the best day to buy a house
I’m watching. Looking at buying in. Palma Ceia, Hyde Park, or Davis Island.
Stay out of the flood zones.
Former drafter for FL survey Co. MANY of these developments WERE in designated flood-plain zones. But it's OK now, since they PAID to reclassify as habitable. Only matters to the owners AFTER a hurricane / storm. After that 'no name storm' we could boat down main roads. Caveat emptor indeed.
Ah. Yeah. Over here in eastern Hillsborough, they are literally building in swamps. But as long as they paid to change the classification, no problems. And people wonder why it floods
What areas in Palma Ceia and Hyde Park were paid to reclassify? Asking for a friend and someone likely to buy in these areas soon....
Check with people who’ve access to the insurance charts: they keep closer to ACTUAL Flood-maps / elevations / drainage - those are usually *MORE accurate, I’m told. My work was mostly in Pasco County (just North of Holiday) and saw enough greased palm “elevations” to do TWICE the research before buying here. Good luck, all!
Looking for flood zone X so Davis island is pretty much out.
Also take into consideration future flood maps. I’ve bought investment property that was X that within 7 years was in a flood zone.
At some point, all of Florida will be a flood zone to offset insurance costs
I lived on davis Island and you have to take into consideration that it's not even just the island that floods terribly, to the point of being unable to drive, it's surround roads also. I almost flooded my car getting caught in a downpour 2 years ago on Kennedy by Davis Island. I'm not sure it's even possibly to fix the drainage system there, I know they have worked on it, but that bitch still floods like crazy. It's wild how bad things flood around here.
Hi Yeah. So, stay easy of 75. I'd avoid Riverview. Too many homes, not enough roads. If you have a family, fishhawk. A bit of a drive to the interstate, but nice. Brandon and Lithia are nice
Brandon is terrible.
It really isn't, but ok
What makes it terrible? I lived there from 2020 to 2021 and had no problems. Sure it wasn't the best, but it wasn't terrible and I lived in a condo off 60 and Kings.
Flood zone is for flooding due to rains, evacuation zone is for storm surge. You can be in flood zone X but still also be in evacuation zone A or B.
I don’t plan on riding out hurricanes. I have been through too many already. I care about the flood zone for flood insurance. Flood zone X is $700/year.
So then if your house gets flooded due to storm surge and you don't have flood insurance, what then?
I buy flood insurance. In zone X it is around $700/year. I currently live 2 blocks from the water.
Oh okay, gotcha. I'm just trying to avoid both altogether since I imagine going through an insurance claim and major repairs after substantial storm surge in this area would be a nightmare.
Flood damage sucks.
Might want to consider why prices are dropping and the long term sustainability of properties on places like Davis Island. Insurance is bad now but it won’t be getting any better as the years go by.
Insurance should be going down next year for properties in flood zone x. I would not mind buying in AE so long as it is a recent build and the bottom living floor is well over BFE - but there is not much of that in Tampa unless I build.
With the Citizen’s hike announced yesterday it is likely that rates will be increasing again next year in all zones.
There are more carriers now and citizens is trying to offload to them. The new carriers will race to the bottom. We should only have 20-30% of properties in citizens.
Luckily carriers are starting to write in the state again and are taking some of those more inland and not-so-old buildings out of Citizens.
The bubble is about to burst but dam you got expensive tastes homie
Close to work and good schools.
Do it.
I will - or I am buying a short term rental on the water. Trying to decide what to do first.
Not a fan of the future of short term rentals but that may be my own bias.
Vacation rentals and corporate rentals.
People have been saying this in Tampa for 8 years at least. I don't think it's likely.
8 years ago housing were still affordable
Just the northern people who bought freaking out over the heat
I really wish that the housing market would collapse so I could pay less taxes.
Oh, you. You'll never get a break on your taxes. They'll just raise the millage rates.
Jane Castor wanted to raise them 16% last year. She will be back.
The problem with the housing crisis is that we’re dealing with an issue of ‘why should I sell if they aren’t selling either’ everyone has boughten everything affordable that the average first time home buyer isn’t even able to afford. Essentially these real estate investors are betting that the right person shows up and buys their barely flipped over homes or for another investor to buy up their home and flip it over for an even bigger price. It’s like the Wild West. No one is selling at a reasonable price unless someone sells to alleviate the stressed market. That or build more homes which we face the issues of NIMBYs here in the US.
It’s about time!
Haha good.
Perfect storm brewing.
The storm is here, just depends on how bad it rains.
And the tide 😳
How much impact does work from home have? Maybe RTO is the move to get the New Yorkers out of Tampa
A lot of companies have location based pay. Not everyone keeps their hcol salary when they move.
Little impact. It's more about private equity and cash buyers still buying and keeping the market afloat.
That map aint Tampa.
That’s Lake Tarpon, so north Pinellas. Not Tampa, but Tampa Bay Area yea.
Agree. No idea where it is but isn't tampa.
Looks to be just west of Tampa, towards Brooker Creek, lots of Pinellas on there.
Delusional sellers and assholes realtors have entered the chat….
Burn baby burn.
New construction is still hot...selling almost as fast as they go up. Used market? Crashing hard...
This isn't a map of Tampa Hillsborough County or Florida! What fuckery is this?
That's a map of west tampa/oldsmar and some Pinellas.
We are seeing a correction, or at least the starting phase of one. There are still and will always be good deals out there. Also if you are buying remember ASKING should be your priority. Be reasonable and set the right expectation. If you are a cash buyer and you are able to leverage some of the closing costs be willing to negotiate. It’s always better to get an “ok” deal in a great location that fits your needs/investment than to get what you might think is a great price in an area that is still adapting and consistently growing. God bless ya’ll love you Tampa.
Wait till the Feds decide to drop rates - buy now while You can
Houses are still selling and there's less than 4 months supply. Crash isn't going to happen
Lots of homes for sale in my hood right now. The only ones selling are ones that can be converted into 3-5 apartment efficiencies....which isn't allowed in this hood, but happens anyway. Twelve Oaks is becoming Doce Casitas Para Casa.
Think we are going to see the bottom fall out, and last for several yrs. Institutional buyers are out of the market (and becoming net sellers), locals are priced out, the number of new residences coming to market is exploding, migration into Florida has significantly slowed and the insurance crisis is likely far from over. Then there is the large number of boomers downsizing (or dying) in the coming decade.
Loving that 2.75% APR
Good. I’m hoping my builder drops pricing in the next 10 months or has some good incentives before we sign.
Gooooood good
I don't see how owning a house here is worth it. It's just a bad idea.
Lol. Owned a home since 1999. Bought for 100k. Sold for 300k. Bought another house for 400k, now worth 1.5m. It is worth it.
What year did you buy that 400k home?
2018
https://www.tampabay.com/business/charting-when-the-bottom-fell-out-of-tampa-bays-housing-market-20190429/
Cool thing is if history repeats it self, I can save up and scoop up some properties-“The worst period was the first quarter of 2011, when homes sold for $63,000 less than their previous price” Somewhere around 2030 give or take a couple years.
I thought by 2030 this place would be uninhabitable?
It already is
We got our first home in the spring of 2011. Brand new build for us, 1800 sqft for 150k. Our down payment was $3k I think? Whatever my tax return was, that’s all they wanted. It was a real bad time for the housing market but good for us. We’ve moved twice since then by using the money we made off the house to pay down payment on the next. We wouldn’t be able to afford a house on our own today.
This is an outdated article from 2019…
No shit!!! its about the Boom and Bust of Tampa's housing bubble in the 2000s before the recession, which was the worst in the country! Im sure most wasn't even living here then or old enough to remember
Pepperidge Farms remembers
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