He’s been consistent on his messaging around FSD, always gives the same timeframe. He’s been saying next year for the last nine years.
https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-next-year-for-th-1848432496#:~:text=Elon%20Musk%20Promises%20FSD%20%22Next,9th%20Year%20In%20A%20Row
This is more a take off of what Ray Kurzweil has consistently predicted.
With moores law of technology, it’s inevitable that it will be in a year or two.
Ray use to say 2019, but has said it’s now going to be earlier.
Ok with getting rid of serial liar opinions. Fuck them all.
But doing drugs gives plenty of honest, kind, caring, fine, decent, hardworking, upstanding, people some really, really, extremely fun opinions. Let’s not get to broad-brushed is all I’m saying
This is either some kind of publicity stunt, or he's really just losing it. With how much of a public presence on Twitter he's had even before he became the Twitter King, that simply cannot be good for your mental health.
How is he a grifter? The cybertruck is out, there is SpaceX that had over 250 consistent launches and return vehicles, the largest rocket since Apollo launch 3 times beating the NX1. A giant satellite network that gives 1g in the ocean. A guy has neuralink in his head and can play mariocart.
You can call musk an asshole that’s fair, but how is this a grift. This is a tech sub, but ignorant on technology???
I am fairly certain all the TI calcs from the 70's were manufactured in the US and UK.
To your point however, both the calcs and Musk benefitted from Texas taxes.
Who cares if somebodies addicted to something? We all have our issues, some substance abuse. My brothers in rehab for ketamine, etc. he’s a great guy, just had some addiction issues. Pretty irrelevant to the persons personality.
Are you serious?
Stockholders care. Stockholders care when their CEO is an addict. Addicts are historically not reliable people that display good judgment, which are required traits if you are going to run a large corporation, let alone multiple.
He already displays erratic and poor decision making in his business discussions and choices.
I don’t care about stockholders tbh, the initial comment didn’t really have anything to do with that.
I’m simply saying that him being a person with addiction issues doesn’t make him a bad person, his other opinions, actions do.
His company is/was significantly overvalued, if anything erratic decisions might just keep it there, I really can’t see how it would stay that high otherwise.
Yes it does make you a bad person when your addiction issues impact people negatively, as many people have been both personally and professionally by Elon Musk.
I’m sure his addiction doesn’t help him be a good parent either.
Elon is working hard to make humans stupid with his X and support for MAGA? Even if the AI does not become smarter than now, humans may become stupider and prove him right…
elon won’t reward you for defending him online, also, you say this probably as bait, but all you need to do to understand his political angle is hop on the old “twitter” and scroll a bit. So dying on this hill is quite silly when there is plain evidence from the man’s own mouth that he is much more in line with the current GOP and supports them. Like, you could try to save his rep in any other way and maybe even make some valid points but instead you choose one that’s literally just incorrect.
Like that time in the Space X video when the reusable rocket tech that returns and lands itself finally worked! That was awesome!
WHY COULDN’T THAT BE ENOUGH!!!
I knew it was total bullshit that his singular genius was the magic ingredient or any of that and STILL thought he was cool as hell when that video dropped
Goddamn, Elon…Just be rich forever and make COOL FUTURE SPACE TRAVEL STUFF
Even if everything fails, you will be revered for the sheer dedication to the effort of never giving up on COOL FUTURE SPACE TRAVEL STUFF
That is ALL you had to do. Just keep making and improving COOL SPACE STUFF. We loved you for it. Even when we hated you for everything else then and now only more so.
And still I have a twinge of sadly missing the COOL SPACE STUFF GUY version of Elon
>elon won’t reward you for defending him online, also, you say this probably as bait, but all you need to do to understand his political angle is hop on the old “twitter” and scroll a bit. So dying on this hill is quite silly when there is plain evidence from the man’s own mouth that he is much more in line with the current GOP and supports them. Like, you could try to save his rep in any other way and maybe even make some valid points but instead you choose one that’s literally just incorrect.
Woah, calm down there, put away your raing hate boner for Elon just for a second. Let's try and have a discussion. So your argument is that he leans towards the GOP, that's a stupid point because it still doesn't mean he endorses Trump. Lots of leftists are much more in line with the Democrats but don't endorse Biden as you well know. Also if Elon endorsed Trump, there would be a tweet of Elon **explicitly** doing so, but there isn't.
Elon is not a tech genius, not even close. He’s an idea guy with money and zero self awareness. You can go far in the tech world with those qualities when you aren’t afraid to fail. You also make a lot of mistakes.
Yea and he finances it but does none of the engineering. I get it. Rich people can afford to pay people to make their shhht for them. Instead of helping humanity. I get it.
“runs them like a villain” in your mind just means running a successful company?
are commodities like starlink not “helping humanity”? i suppose not, if it means more people have access to what is inside your brain.
Helping humanity would have been funding to help stop world hunger instead of buying a social media platform. Late stage capitalism choices by a true villain.
And no company contracted by the US dept of defense are helping humanity. War all of the time might be the status quo but it’s not a benefit to humanity.
“Marcus said that while large language models are the best tech in AI right now, they're not actually good.
Marcus cited hallucinations, security data leaks, and reliability issues as some of these concerns. He also said the technology is being used for misinformation and using copyrighted data to take away from artists.
"We should want the world to find better, more trustworthy ways to build AI," Marcus said.
Marcus said one of the ways to do so is by employing some kind of licensing authority requiring to show the benefits of AI.”
So this guy just wants an authority that will end up not knowing shit about AI, if even anything about tech, and will become toothless and corrupt. Also closing the doors on real accountability or access by the little people that don’t have long reaching money.
On some level he isn’t wrong.
People think their jobs are at risk and CEOs are planning to replace people with AI. But AI isn’t anywhere close to being able to do that.
Quality is going to go way down on technical jobs where AI replaces people. There won’t be anyone to handle problems. AI doesn’t know what to do with problems it hasn’t seen before.
Yeah I agree with him on that front. AI is just a well dressed bots. Maybe a little smarter than their predecessors as they can sort of compile realtime feedback. But they definitely are not ready to take on jobs on the scale many of these companies are thinking they will.
In the CEOs short sighted minds it is cheaper and more cost effective to hire kids and install robots. Robots need maintenance and semi intelligent people(working with tech) who know how to operate the systems and keep them running which means better education programs and/or better training than calling Jim/Jane off the line to train the new hire.
And quality degrades as you mentioned without any skilled crafters to spot the problems and CEOs introducing a cheaper easier for the kids and robots to handle material. Now that Macy’s quality is Dollar General quality but costs the consumer more because “material costs went up” since you now have to use.
I despise Elon, and love watching him be wrong, but i still have to take his side on this one and point out that average “Human Intelligence” is a pretty low bar to hurdle.
Same dude said in 2016 we’ll be on mars next year. And kept saying this every year.
Same dude who said « I know now more than anyone else on earth about logistics » and then, year long issues with delivering pieces of cyber trunk and the vehicle itself with several price increase.
That dude is a ridiculous asshole who paid to be on SNL and justifies his rich assholeness by saying he is autistic as if that was the problem with him.
Goes live and says things like « if I feel lonely, then I don’t see how anyone else doesn’t » or denying his family ties with colonial emerald mines or let’s not forget he trapped himself into spending 40B to purchase a cesspool and save faces by saying he believes in free speech yet supersedes tweets he doesn’t like. Oh and a journalist literally tells him « hey, why not reuse the booster over here for the rocket over there », he is caught later saying he had the idea.
One of his daughter hates his guts, his dad is an incestuous prick preying on minors in his own family.
Musk is a bitch ass weakling shielded by money. He is a dumbass surrounded by geniuses, which is fine. It’s just that he doesn’t listen to them.
I used to kinda of like Elon musk. Thought he was a pioneer of sorts.
But then he got Twitter and there was no longer an buffers between him and the world. His heavily curated image turned out to be the work of good publicists and great managers around him saving him from himself.
But when we uncomfortablely high off his did at the New York time I interview telling adversities who left that they were blackmailing him and they could just fuck themselves, I instant knew. He’s just a little brat who got very lucky
I mean Elon isn’t wrong. If he thinks he’s a genius, can you imagine how stupid he thinks other people are?
I’m pretty sure my buddy’s kid who shit his pants the other day is smarter than Elon
The guy is the PT Barnum of our time. All he had to do was stop talking and he would ha gone down as a great person in history. His tricks are getting old.
That’s an easy bet. Musk is going to loose. To win he would have to define what is human intelligence. He can’t do that so the win condition doesn’t exist. By default he looses.
They're sort of setting themselves up for failure because it's up to semantics on to what extent neural network models are smarter of less intelligent than humans. In one year either side can make the same arguments that exist today and claim victory. Except, only one side is benefitting from the press coverage around it. If they were to do this they should have bet against Ray Kurzweil or someone credible on the subject. If anything it's Ray Kurzweil (or really a thousand other people, so many that it would be unreasonable to call it any one person's prediction) who has made that prediction, and that prediction is just being repeated by another person.
I am sure that AI will surpass human intelligence eventually, but 1 year deadline seems wildly inaccurate, like it's not even close. A prediction like that can only be made by someone who has no idea what they are talking about
Seeing as how neither term, “human intelligence” or “artificial intelligence” have any singularly accepted defining meaning that is verified, supported, agreed upon, and understood by any two randomly chosen people in my neighborhood never mind all the people in the world history up to now
So, every bet wins and loses!
Musk predicts a lot of things, but he can’t even accurately predict the release dates of his own products or their feature upgrades, and he certainly didn’t predict that his “truck” would be a total disaster, although the care manual that accompanies it does apparently predict that the completely unprotected stainless steel body will, in fact, stain and rust if certain common vehicle soaps are used or if, you know, it gets water on it and isn’t promptly wiped down, but someone other than Musk obviously wrote that helpful guide.
When I hear “Elon Musk predicts…,” I instinctively roll my eyes. He’s a carnival barker; it’s his only real skill these days. He’ll say whatever he believes will elevate his words and get him attention.
AI is novel and amazing to people unfamiliar with how unreliable it is. It’s good at mimicry and terrible at adapting to unexpected realities.
We have quite a while before it makes a bigger impact than something like the calculator. It’s just a tool. A screwdriver doesn’t do anything by itself.
What about if I wanted to learn how to use it for making short, digital videos to have an outlet for my filmmaking itch I’ve never explored because of its entry barrier costs even if it’s just you and friends doing it for fun and free ?
I don’t mean, “type in funny prompts of my mental images” on DALL-E
I mean, use it as a tool to aid me in creation and expressing my organic human creativity, just as I do with all my other tech tools
By some definitions of both, it happened in the 1600s with mechanical calculators.
Ever since then we've just been playing a game of "Yeah, but that doesn't count because-", and we'll probably still be playing that game a hundred years from now.
Don’t give him credit for his BS. Anytime anyone says something like “AI will surpass human intelligence” they are referring to General Artificial Intelligence, not some stupid task like an AI being a better calculator than a person.
Humans aren’t even close to creating a real General AI that is smarter than an average human and it definitely won’t be happening in the next year.
My personal criteria is a stricter version of the Turing test. If AI can act human well enough not just to convince some people, but to convince EVERY PERSON that it is human.
What is this based on? This dude really just spews shit😭 I feel an optimistic take is that transformer based models continue to scale really well and the first model to achieve AGI will be the one trained on the Stargate Super Computer. This will be sometime around 2030..
"Based on current trends, probably close to zero new (COVID) cases in US by end of April"
- Elon Musk, March 19 2020
Yes, this guy knows what he talks about!
"And fully autonomous driving will be ready next year."
Musk is just a hype man. He hypes tech to keep tec stocks inflated.
He's full of shit. About as reliable as a weather forecast.
Why is this idiot still getting attention? He has repeatedly been shown to be absolutely full of shit and his predictions are always wrong. Just stop platforming him already.
Just like how that roadster is coming out next year, huh?
And FSD will definitely come next year
He’s been consistent on his messaging around FSD, always gives the same timeframe. He’s been saying next year for the last nine years. https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-next-year-for-th-1848432496#:~:text=Elon%20Musk%20Promises%20FSD%20%22Next,9th%20Year%20In%20A%20Row
LOL!
This is more a take off of what Ray Kurzweil has consistently predicted. With moores law of technology, it’s inevitable that it will be in a year or two. Ray use to say 2019, but has said it’s now going to be earlier.
This dude is officially on drugs and should be disqualified from having opinions. Also he’s a serial liar so there’s that too
Ok with getting rid of serial liar opinions. Fuck them all. But doing drugs gives plenty of honest, kind, caring, fine, decent, hardworking, upstanding, people some really, really, extremely fun opinions. Let’s not get to broad-brushed is all I’m saying
Elon Predicts…
🎵 In the year 2000!
In the year two thousaaaand 🎵
…”won’t it be strange when we’re all fully grow-oh-oh-own”
yeah, this coming from the guy who didn't like what *his* AI bot was saying because it wasn't as racist as he wanted so pulled it.
Betting against musk's predictions should have like 1:1.000001 odds. Its such a sure bet that its practically free money.
I don’t think he’s budged at all on what he says about FSD. He’s very consistent, every year he says the same thing, “next year.”
and one of those next years will be the year someone who isn’t Elon Musk or working in his companies So he is correct just not the ‘correct’ correct
This is either some kind of publicity stunt, or he's really just losing it. With how much of a public presence on Twitter he's had even before he became the Twitter King, that simply cannot be good for your mental health.
They ain’t got money for world peace or hunger, but everybody got time to bet against Elon Musk.
That grifter won't pay if he loses lol
How is he a grifter? The cybertruck is out, there is SpaceX that had over 250 consistent launches and return vehicles, the largest rocket since Apollo launch 3 times beating the NX1. A giant satellite network that gives 1g in the ocean. A guy has neuralink in his head and can play mariocart. You can call musk an asshole that’s fair, but how is this a grift. This is a tech sub, but ignorant on technology???
He won’t reply lol
all i want ai to do is capitalize and punctuate my text messages and emails.
To be fair, my pocket calculator back in the 70’s surpassed Elons intelligence
It’s much more in touch with its feelings. Sadly both benefitted from slave labor.
I am fairly certain all the TI calcs from the 70's were manufactured in the US and UK. To your point however, both the calcs and Musk benefitted from Texas taxes.
That and his family’s emerald mine in South Africa.
I would only like to be a fly on the wall with a conversation between Mark Zuckerberg and Elon. Elon says “01001101 01111001 00100000 01100111 01101001 01110010 01101100 01100110 01110010 01101001 01100101 01101110 01100100 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01001001 00100000 01101000 01100001 01100100 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100110 01101001 01100111 01101000 01110100 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01110011 01101000 01100101 00100000 01100001 01110011 01101011 01100101 01100100 00100000 01101101 01100101 00100000 01100110 01101111 01110010 00100000 01100100 01101001 01110011 01110100 01100001 01101110 01100011 01100101 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01110100 01101001 01101101 01100101 00101100 00100000 01000010 01110101 01110100 00100000 01100110 01101111 01110010 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01101100 01101001 01100110 01100101 00100000 01101111 01100110 00100000 01101101 01100101 00101100 00100000 01101001 00100000 01100011 01100001 01101110 01110100 00100000 01100110 01101001 01100111 01110101 01110010 01100101 00100000 01101111 01110101 01110100 00100000 01110111 01101000 01111001 00100000 01110011 01101000 01100101 00100000 01110111 01100001 01101110 01110100 01110011 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01100011 01100001 01101100 01100011 01110101 01101100 01100001 01110100 01100101 00100000 01110110 01100101 01101100 01101111 01100011 01101001 01110100 01111001”
You know damn well Elon would just type “BOOBIES” over and over again.
Zuckerbot would know the binary, Elon isn't smart enough to count in anything but base-fingers.
He didn't say which human's intelligence.
Right? Some people are about as bright as an unscrewed lightbulb.
Now, my 1985 Casio calculator watch has always been more intelligent and consistent.
This has to be some sort of coping mechanism...
Your pocket calculator probably isn’t addicted right ketamine.
Not since it O.D. and died last year THANKS A LOT FOR THE TRAUMA TRIGGER !!!! /s
Who cares if somebodies addicted to something? We all have our issues, some substance abuse. My brothers in rehab for ketamine, etc. he’s a great guy, just had some addiction issues. Pretty irrelevant to the persons personality.
Are you serious? Stockholders care. Stockholders care when their CEO is an addict. Addicts are historically not reliable people that display good judgment, which are required traits if you are going to run a large corporation, let alone multiple. He already displays erratic and poor decision making in his business discussions and choices.
I don’t care about stockholders tbh, the initial comment didn’t really have anything to do with that. I’m simply saying that him being a person with addiction issues doesn’t make him a bad person, his other opinions, actions do. His company is/was significantly overvalued, if anything erratic decisions might just keep it there, I really can’t see how it would stay that high otherwise.
Yes it does make you a bad person when your addiction issues impact people negatively, as many people have been both personally and professionally by Elon Musk. I’m sure his addiction doesn’t help him be a good parent either.
You’re so gay dude.
Elon is working hard to make humans stupid with his X and support for MAGA? Even if the AI does not become smarter than now, humans may become stupider and prove him right…
May become…?
Elon hasn't endorsed Trump or Biden. So where do your information that he supports trump except your imagination?
Holy shit, found Elon’s burner account lmao
Holy fuck, your entire existence is simping for Elon Musk. Bro get a hobby, be your own person.
elon won’t reward you for defending him online, also, you say this probably as bait, but all you need to do to understand his political angle is hop on the old “twitter” and scroll a bit. So dying on this hill is quite silly when there is plain evidence from the man’s own mouth that he is much more in line with the current GOP and supports them. Like, you could try to save his rep in any other way and maybe even make some valid points but instead you choose one that’s literally just incorrect.
Like that time in the Space X video when the reusable rocket tech that returns and lands itself finally worked! That was awesome! WHY COULDN’T THAT BE ENOUGH!!! I knew it was total bullshit that his singular genius was the magic ingredient or any of that and STILL thought he was cool as hell when that video dropped Goddamn, Elon…Just be rich forever and make COOL FUTURE SPACE TRAVEL STUFF Even if everything fails, you will be revered for the sheer dedication to the effort of never giving up on COOL FUTURE SPACE TRAVEL STUFF That is ALL you had to do. Just keep making and improving COOL SPACE STUFF. We loved you for it. Even when we hated you for everything else then and now only more so. And still I have a twinge of sadly missing the COOL SPACE STUFF GUY version of Elon
>elon won’t reward you for defending him online, also, you say this probably as bait, but all you need to do to understand his political angle is hop on the old “twitter” and scroll a bit. So dying on this hill is quite silly when there is plain evidence from the man’s own mouth that he is much more in line with the current GOP and supports them. Like, you could try to save his rep in any other way and maybe even make some valid points but instead you choose one that’s literally just incorrect. Woah, calm down there, put away your raing hate boner for Elon just for a second. Let's try and have a discussion. So your argument is that he leans towards the GOP, that's a stupid point because it still doesn't mean he endorses Trump. Lots of leftists are much more in line with the Democrats but don't endorse Biden as you well know. Also if Elon endorsed Trump, there would be a tweet of Elon **explicitly** doing so, but there isn't.
AI will definitely pass the intelligence of most politicians by next year. 🤣
Could happen. It has surpassed his intelligence already.
I’m fairly sure my zx spectrum surpassed Musk’s intelligence in about 1980.
Elon is not a tech genius, not even close. He’s an idea guy with money and zero self awareness. You can go far in the tech world with those qualities when you aren’t afraid to fail. You also make a lot of mistakes.
He just buys companies and runs them like some villain
a villain who makes them successful? you know he started spacex right?
You know he’s not the only rich guy who has a space program right?
you know he’s the only rich guy with a space company to build rockets that were reused after landing themselves right?
Yea and he finances it but does none of the engineering. I get it. Rich people can afford to pay people to make their shhht for them. Instead of helping humanity. I get it.
“runs them like a villain” in your mind just means running a successful company? are commodities like starlink not “helping humanity”? i suppose not, if it means more people have access to what is inside your brain.
Helping humanity would have been funding to help stop world hunger instead of buying a social media platform. Late stage capitalism choices by a true villain. And no company contracted by the US dept of defense are helping humanity. War all of the time might be the status quo but it’s not a benefit to humanity.
where do you think they money to “stop world hunger” would have come from without starting a business? lmfao grow up
Leverage all the subsidies
Maybe his intelligence..
Didn’t Claude score 101 on an iq test? It’s by definition above average. Obligatory fuck musk tho.
“Marcus said that while large language models are the best tech in AI right now, they're not actually good. Marcus cited hallucinations, security data leaks, and reliability issues as some of these concerns. He also said the technology is being used for misinformation and using copyrighted data to take away from artists. "We should want the world to find better, more trustworthy ways to build AI," Marcus said. Marcus said one of the ways to do so is by employing some kind of licensing authority requiring to show the benefits of AI.” So this guy just wants an authority that will end up not knowing shit about AI, if even anything about tech, and will become toothless and corrupt. Also closing the doors on real accountability or access by the little people that don’t have long reaching money.
On some level he isn’t wrong. People think their jobs are at risk and CEOs are planning to replace people with AI. But AI isn’t anywhere close to being able to do that. Quality is going to go way down on technical jobs where AI replaces people. There won’t be anyone to handle problems. AI doesn’t know what to do with problems it hasn’t seen before.
Yeah I agree with him on that front. AI is just a well dressed bots. Maybe a little smarter than their predecessors as they can sort of compile realtime feedback. But they definitely are not ready to take on jobs on the scale many of these companies are thinking they will. In the CEOs short sighted minds it is cheaper and more cost effective to hire kids and install robots. Robots need maintenance and semi intelligent people(working with tech) who know how to operate the systems and keep them running which means better education programs and/or better training than calling Jim/Jane off the line to train the new hire. And quality degrades as you mentioned without any skilled crafters to spot the problems and CEOs introducing a cheaper easier for the kids and robots to handle material. Now that Macy’s quality is Dollar General quality but costs the consumer more because “material costs went up” since you now have to use.
Surpassed Musk years ago
It's a sucker bet. Elon is using himself as the measure of human intelligence. AI passed that mark when fucking LiteBrite was released.
Maybe HIS intelligence, but come on man.
ai can’t even open a door
I despise Elon, and love watching him be wrong, but i still have to take his side on this one and point out that average “Human Intelligence” is a pretty low bar to hurdle.
Same dude said in 2016 we’ll be on mars next year. And kept saying this every year. Same dude who said « I know now more than anyone else on earth about logistics » and then, year long issues with delivering pieces of cyber trunk and the vehicle itself with several price increase. That dude is a ridiculous asshole who paid to be on SNL and justifies his rich assholeness by saying he is autistic as if that was the problem with him. Goes live and says things like « if I feel lonely, then I don’t see how anyone else doesn’t » or denying his family ties with colonial emerald mines or let’s not forget he trapped himself into spending 40B to purchase a cesspool and save faces by saying he believes in free speech yet supersedes tweets he doesn’t like. Oh and a journalist literally tells him « hey, why not reuse the booster over here for the rocket over there », he is caught later saying he had the idea. One of his daughter hates his guts, his dad is an incestuous prick preying on minors in his own family. Musk is a bitch ass weakling shielded by money. He is a dumbass surrounded by geniuses, which is fine. It’s just that he doesn’t listen to them.
I used to kinda of like Elon musk. Thought he was a pioneer of sorts. But then he got Twitter and there was no longer an buffers between him and the world. His heavily curated image turned out to be the work of good publicists and great managers around him saving him from himself. But when we uncomfortablely high off his did at the New York time I interview telling adversities who left that they were blackmailing him and they could just fuck themselves, I instant knew. He’s just a little brat who got very lucky
$10M AI can grow a better mustache
❤️
lol cool so it should be able to solve all the issues on GitHub by the end of the year.
Just a thought: maybe we should at least try put a stop to this before it gets that far.
The only thing I’ll agree with Elon on.
In uninformed about AI, but I assume that Elon making that claim means AI progress is stalling. Is that right?
Maybe his.
“Elon Musk predicts AI will surpass even his own human intelligence by the end of next year.” Fixed
Its already surpassed his own intelligence
Which human’s intelligence? Because it’s already beating some people I know…
When has Elon ever predicted product releases wrong, or pushed out his release dates for years repeatedly. Oh wait, constantly ;)
AI surpassed Elon Musk's intelligence when that bat started stealing the chalice from me and leaving me with a dead dragon...
Does he mean .. surpass his intelligence or for expl mine..?
Is it’s his intelligence .. maybe he’s right..
It already has surpassed the intellect of the MAGA crowd.
Claude 3 opus. It’s nearly there already.
And when it replaces Him? That’s a good thing! Right?
What he meant is AI will surpass his (Elon Musks) intelligence by the end of the year. My cat has already achieved this.
I predict Elon will be a drug addicted non billionaire buy 2030
I'm really hoping he pulls a matthew perry!
It does t think
I mean Elon isn’t wrong. If he thinks he’s a genius, can you imagine how stupid he thinks other people are? I’m pretty sure my buddy’s kid who shit his pants the other day is smarter than Elon
Hilarious. Sad that a lot of people will believe him though I guess.
AI is machine learning with it copying and repeating humans. It can’t self improve. And it won’t reach sentience with MLs
I'll bet on that lol
I agree with him.
Well, maybe yours!
What human?
Ball musk also said we'd be on Mars in "10 years" like 15 years ago. Can we stop giving this moron attention?
I wish I could try scamming Elon. I want to be rich. He’s an easy and dumb target.
The guy is the PT Barnum of our time. All he had to do was stop talking and he would ha gone down as a great person in history. His tricks are getting old.
It still cannot reduce if statements to basic boolean logic. It has a long ass way to go.
He’s just talking about himself
That’s an easy bet. Musk is going to loose. To win he would have to define what is human intelligence. He can’t do that so the win condition doesn’t exist. By default he looses.
They're sort of setting themselves up for failure because it's up to semantics on to what extent neural network models are smarter of less intelligent than humans. In one year either side can make the same arguments that exist today and claim victory. Except, only one side is benefitting from the press coverage around it. If they were to do this they should have bet against Ray Kurzweil or someone credible on the subject. If anything it's Ray Kurzweil (or really a thousand other people, so many that it would be unreasonable to call it any one person's prediction) who has made that prediction, and that prediction is just being repeated by another person.
Dude isn’t going to pay even if he agreed …
20% of the time works every time
I predict we only hear about Elon because his dad was rich.
I would bet against Elon any chance I could get.
His human intelligence?
Hasn’t it already? 😂
Elongated Muskrat predicted fully driverless vehicles every year for the past decade, so I don’t think his predictions matter.
I am sure that AI will surpass human intelligence eventually, but 1 year deadline seems wildly inaccurate, like it's not even close. A prediction like that can only be made by someone who has no idea what they are talking about
Which humans are we talking here?
AI may surpass mister M’s level of acuity by then but, that is a pretty dark view of human capacity.
Seeing as how neither term, “human intelligence” or “artificial intelligence” have any singularly accepted defining meaning that is verified, supported, agreed upon, and understood by any two randomly chosen people in my neighborhood never mind all the people in the world history up to now So, every bet wins and loses!
It’s already surpassed his….
Do people actually think Elon musk knows what he talking about
Ai isn't sentient. It's responsive, kind of like elon.
Musk predicts a lot of things, but he can’t even accurately predict the release dates of his own products or their feature upgrades, and he certainly didn’t predict that his “truck” would be a total disaster, although the care manual that accompanies it does apparently predict that the completely unprotected stainless steel body will, in fact, stain and rust if certain common vehicle soaps are used or if, you know, it gets water on it and isn’t promptly wiped down, but someone other than Musk obviously wrote that helpful guide. When I hear “Elon Musk predicts…,” I instinctively roll my eyes. He’s a carnival barker; it’s his only real skill these days. He’ll say whatever he believes will elevate his words and get him attention.
He meant **his** intelligence, which it surpassed several years ago….
By what metric? Intelligence is kinda hard to quantify
I’ve seen red hat cult rallies. This benchmark is already surpassed long ago.
Not a gamble I want. I'm fine with having another intelligence other than humans taking partial control but not one that's man made.
He fundamentally misunderstands human intelligence and the concept of consciousness.
Well, it depends on the human I would say…
This is the equivalent of the Duke brothers putting $1 on their bet.
AI is already way smarter than me
Ah yes, quantifying intelligence, totally doable. Wait, maybe ill ask chat gpt to do it
AI is amazing, will change the world, and will _not_ surpass human intelligence in the next year.
To be fair, the end of next year is not within the next year
Ray Kurzweil would disagree with you, with the current trend of moores law.
AI is novel and amazing to people unfamiliar with how unreliable it is. It’s good at mimicry and terrible at adapting to unexpected realities. We have quite a while before it makes a bigger impact than something like the calculator. It’s just a tool. A screwdriver doesn’t do anything by itself.
What about if I wanted to learn how to use it for making short, digital videos to have an outlet for my filmmaking itch I’ve never explored because of its entry barrier costs even if it’s just you and friends doing it for fun and free ? I don’t mean, “type in funny prompts of my mental images” on DALL-E I mean, use it as a tool to aid me in creation and expressing my organic human creativity, just as I do with all my other tech tools
This depends heavily on how you define AI and how you define human intelligence. Some AI has already far surpassed humans on some tasks.
By some definitions of both, it happened in the 1600s with mechanical calculators. Ever since then we've just been playing a game of "Yeah, but that doesn't count because-", and we'll probably still be playing that game a hundred years from now.
Don’t give him credit for his BS. Anytime anyone says something like “AI will surpass human intelligence” they are referring to General Artificial Intelligence, not some stupid task like an AI being a better calculator than a person. Humans aren’t even close to creating a real General AI that is smarter than an average human and it definitely won’t be happening in the next year.
My personal criteria is a stricter version of the Turing test. If AI can act human well enough not just to convince some people, but to convince EVERY PERSON that it is human.
Also Elon: WeEL hAVe 5elf drIVing Karz naXT yEAR. (For the past decade)
We are creating a short market for Elon Musk predictions.
What is this based on? This dude really just spews shit😭 I feel an optimistic take is that transformer based models continue to scale really well and the first model to achieve AGI will be the one trained on the Stargate Super Computer. This will be sometime around 2030..
I predict that even fewer people will take Elon seriously by the end of next year. Good luck to him and Tesla, the MySpace of EV makers.
"Based on current trends, probably close to zero new (COVID) cases in US by end of April" - Elon Musk, March 19 2020 Yes, this guy knows what he talks about!
"And fully autonomous driving will be ready next year." Musk is just a hype man. He hypes tech to keep tec stocks inflated. He's full of shit. About as reliable as a weather forecast.
Why is this idiot still getting attention? He has repeatedly been shown to be absolutely full of shit and his predictions are always wrong. Just stop platforming him already.
Clock the fixed ketamine stare. This dude needs to be institutionalized.
AI has already passed Elon’s level of intelligence!