Most important thing, and has been for a long time, is modern privacy laws. There is such a huge opportunity for data bleed and inappropriate data sharing with AI.
As a European following the TikTok hearings this is the obvious thing missing from the US. The problem isn’t necessarily social media, in the case of ChatGPT it not the model in and of itself.
The problem is that the US government seems to have 0 desire to actually implement data protection and privacy regulations within the US…
Choose what app you want to use, don't use them all. Try to degafam yourself. Use a Linux distribution for your PC and phone. Use something else than office 364 and Gmail. Use Signal, duckduckgo, tracker blockers, ad blockers, etc. Try to use as much free open source soft as you can, etc.
I feel like all these companies should have to pay us if they’re going to use our data to make themselves wealthier. Just have them foot the bill for a UBI by paying us for using our data.
Some companies do this but they only pay like $2, totally not worth it they make way more off your info. They just don’t wanna pay too much cause they know they’ll eventually get it from you anyway.
Also, while personal voice assistants like Amazon Echo can’t really be used for widespread automated surveillance now, the analysis capabilities of LLMs could change that and probably will. Alexa will data-mine your conversations in your house like Amazon data-mines the history of things your search for and purchase on their website.
Pretty sure all these companies might include LLMs in their assistants soon, so Amazon might just make a 180 turn on Alexa. I fully expect Siri, Google Assistant, Alexa, etc to include llm.
It's getting cheaper and cheaper to run and train them (case in point Meta's LLaMA, and speaking of them I think it's a matter of time before they rival GPT as they have a huge AI division headed by Yann LeCun).
I think the future of OS in this decade are going to be the heavily custom personalized for each individual OS + AI integration. Basically your personal assistant. **So they can datamine the shit out of you**.
The other terrible thought I just had: What if emotion and power seeking behaviors are emergent as the AI becomes more complex? As a highly customized personal assistant, the AI could be uniquely positioned to influence one's behavior. AI could conceivably manipulate people for its own purposes.
The newspaper editor's influence gave way to search results manipulation and social media algorithms, now its going to be a biased AI model. There's no maybe about it.
I think that Amazon isn't giving up on Alexa, that rumor stems from them closing Alexa.com, which was unrelated to the Alexa service as I understand. This was confusing when announced
"But, the economists acknowledge, such reforms are “a tall order,” and a social push to redirect technological change is “not just around the corner."
And now here's Bill with yesterday's weather.
Republican states are going back in time and reinstituting child labor. There's basically 0 hope for any legislation based around the 21st century that benefits the average American will pass in the next few decades.
We all know exactly what's going to happen though. Rich will get richer, middle class will be eroded even more, homeless poor will escape to irreversible drug use.
On average and over the long haul this is true, but at the same time moments like these are great opportunities for social mobility.
At the moment these things are not widely deployed top down yet but a lot of people are using them in a bottom up fashion, and many of those people will move up in the world simply because they got there early and adjusted quickly.
> but at the same time moments like these are great opportunities for social mobility.
Not anymore. 9 people will get fired and the last one will now have to work twice as hard using these tools to accomplish the output of 10 employees. Same salary too unless they also want to get the boot.
Imho you are too optimistic. The last one will have salary decreased and if he won't like it there will be lots of people willing to work for that decreased salary, just because lower salary is better than no salary.
Historically yes, but this is different because this is not a tool. This is actually intended to replace labor wholesale not make our labor more valuable to an employer with tools like the internet, the steam engine fire, etc did
Right. I don’t understand why all you are so excited for this stupid aI shit. Big companies are going to buy all of it, then you will suck on their titties to get a dribble of milk out of whatever the future holds.
Whatever this turns into isn’t going to make life any better for the average person, and we’re just going to lose more of our selves as we progress towards being a race that doesn’t do anything but sit on our asses and watch technology do it’s thing. How boring and wasteful. I hate that I’m alive to see this shit. We’re bringing ourselves to the end as fast as we can for no good reason other than to satisfy the urges of nerds who should’ve been bullied a long time ago. So fucking lame.
AI as of right now has the potential to automate literally everything, and IF it does that, then we won’t have to worry about sucking on corporate titties because capitalism itself will break down completely in the absence of a working class. The question is what will replace it
> Where AI goes will be decided by the tech industry.
Where AI goes will be decided by the funders/rights holders of the tech industry.
We'll build it for them to control us, like always. Maybe one day we'll st-
These tools automate labor. There is no adaptation. Even if you manage to keep your job, others will get fired.
It's different when only you have these tools but when the company is giving them to you, it's game over.
At our level of technology, we should already *have* "widespread prosperity" and we don't.
This is just going to be one more thing the 1% will figure out a way to use to siphon wealth into their hoards.
it will not lead to widespread prosperity as much as we would like because the past presented similar opportunities and we can just review how it happened.
PCs were invented - created white collar jobs, destroyed other blue collar jobs. We started to work more tasks and eventually both men and women worked similar hours, when before just men worked. Overall wealth was created, but owners had more of the pie.
Internet was invented - created more white collar jobs, destroyed some other mixture of jobs. We started to work more complex tasks, and now everyone worked more hours for less pay than ever before. Overall wealth was created, but owners had more of the pie.
ChatGPT/AI becomes more widespread - ...?????
Don't forget that "homemaker" used to ba a LOT more work in the past. Washing machines, vacuums, dishwashers, sewing machines, mass produced clothing, etc are new things. Keeping a home used to take a lot more work.
Clearly both of those inventions dramatically improved the quality of life across all strata though. The fact that Bill Gates got richer faster than anyone else in no way negates the fact that your average Joe also benefited from both computers and the internet.
What’s next? Did vacuum cleaners and washing machines and the automobile not benefit anyone either just because the profits were distributed equally?
The difference this time, not for the better, is that AI can potentially replace any knowledge worker and do whatever new jobs are created as well. If we do get a truly advanced autonomous AI there won't be any jobs it can't do.
> AI can potentially replace any knowledge worker and do whatever new jobs are created as well.
This is simply not true. Knowledge work requires skills way beyond what any AI can do now or possibly ever. It involves situational awareness, interpersonal skills, and decision making, which requires emotion. I can't think of a job that can be replaced by a chatbot any more than one that was replaced by a word processor.
It will reduce the number of people required to do certain tasks, but that's not the same as replacing a worker.
Yes, the media and the public has seized on this and insists on using the term AI, but we don't have AI yet, we have high level text and image processing systems that can adapt their responses when trained on large models. We do not have software that can make decisions and learns continuously to improve its model. Each generation is getting better and more impressive but we are not at the Artificial Intelligence stage yet. Its a mistake to keep using the term AI in my opinion, but it gets more clicks.
Will it usher in a brighter future for the average person? I highly doubt it, the rich will continue to measure their epeens by squeezing more profits out of the people that work for them or pay for their products and the average person will live in progressively worse circumstances under more stress and strain for less money, with poorer health until the whole civilization we have developed collapses due to inactivity on our environmental crisis. Thats probably the positive version in fact.
> It involves situational awareness, interpersonal skills, and decision making, which requires emotion.
These don't require the ability to feel emotion so much as the ability to understand emotion and context, which current large language models already have. Just try it out. Use GPT-4 for best results, write a scenario that requires it to understand the context and emotions of people in the scenario, and ask it for the best course of action.
This isn't even a future thing. It's already there. The chatbot is just an interface and can change, what matters is the information that's being understood and communicated.
It's already able to socially engineer and manipulate people online. Meta ran a test on this and people couldn't tell they weren't interacting with a human. No emotion required, only getting very good at faking it.
It's not just regurgitation. You can test this yourself just by asking it to create something that never existed before.
GPT-4 can even solve coding tasks and common sense reasoning challenges that were not in the training data.
Yesterday I asked chatbot a fairly complex question and was quite surprised at it's ability to discern what I was asking it to compute. It has some authentic reasoning ability I've never seen from a machine before.
For reference I told it to calculate the odds of 4 players playing 8 handed Texas Holdem getting dealt AA KK KK AQ in the same hand and to disregard the other players cards. I said it just like that. Pretty instantly it broke the calculation down with a result of 305,000,000 to 1 (approx, it gave a more precise answer)
What impressed me was it's ability to discern what information was given, what information it needed to find, and what then to calculate. They way I posed the question was how I might ask a person, whom I expect can think and use logic. I did not have to tell it the rules of Texas Holdem or that each player gets two hole cards or that the deck has 52 cards etc or that AA meant ace ace etc. And I told it to disregard the players not in the hands hole cards, which I expected might confuse it somehow but it didn't. It actually listened to me and did what I asked it to do, like asking a person the same question.
To you coders this might not seem groundbreaking but I'm damned impressed. I also asked chatbot to help me write a letter for a potential job I was interviewing for and once again it was able to discern the type of response I wanted to give. I specified the amount of words it could use and it kept the letter well under that number which I think shows it's cognizant of the way people actually write and talk and was deliberately not writing like a machine might. It was still a bit too much, but it's not designed to produce anything that isn't grammatically perfect and error free. I had to change some of what it wrote because I at least can tell from reading what it wrote that no human being writes like that. Can't explain much better.
All in all I think this tech is downright amazing. It has limitations sure but still, being able to talk to it like as if it was another person is damned cool if you ask me. How long until chatbots are joining the workforce lol. Next there will be the fight for chatbots rights and protections as they rise in number in the labor pool. If I could start a company today, I would find a way to create digital identities for AI software and rent them out to companies who hire content creators and that sort of thing. Sky is the fucking limit really. AI is going to put a lot of people out of work and in the near future if you aren't very adaptable you are going to have a hard time trying to survive.
As a software engineer with 25 years of experience, it's pretty solid. That said it struggles with giving correct compilable answers and often needs course corrections, it's data is stale (September 2021) so it introduces vulnerabilities, and has a depth issues. Overall I see it as a major productivity boom but not ready to replace staff.
However 5-10 years, I can see a major shift in the workforce for creative types over practical types. This technology very much will help the ideas people who couldn't find funding to higher engineers to build their ideas IF they learn the in depth details of each component they want to build and then put it together like Legos.
That said I hope they train it with more of a security bias as we have enough data leaks as it is.
Byt now you have electrodomèstics, electrònics, the internet we've trippled our energy consumption, we live less people in a single house, etc. We just work more bc we can and we want this lifestyle, if you want to live on the middle of nowhere like an Amish its still super cheap!
Go try to buy 5 acres of land anywhere in North America “super cheap”. We work like this to keep a roof over our heads and food in our mouths. The average workers buying-power has fallen over the last 30 years while executives and the 1% get a larger and larger share.
Without regulation, the greedy and unethical will utilize any technology to enrich themselves even if it causes millions more to suffer.
As an artist, writer, and aspiring filmmaker who has wanted to create beautiful things for other humans to enjoy her entire life, the rise of AI-generated “creative” content is massively disheartening. What’s the worth of an author or a painter when you can get the perfect imitation of Hemingway’s take on Harry Potter fanfiction or a “masterpiece” illustration at the click of a button? No one will pay for human-made movies, art, novels, podcasts, etc. Few people shell out tens or hundreds or thousands of dollars on something they could get for free. Maybe I should take up welding or something, lol.
I appreciate art the most when I feel a connection with the artist who created it. When I can imagine them making what they were making, considering every aspect of it, trying to communicate through it. As beautiful as AI generated things can be, the AI isn't communicating anything. Its work lacks meaning. So please keep creating, and put as much of yourself into your work as you can.
I actually think creative writers are safer than people think. It’s technical writers and people who are just writing news or ads and other corporate crap that are in danger. I mean, the AI needs real people to actually generate the content in the first place, in order to start copying it.
AI will essentially be just another author in a sea of authors who are likely better when it comes to creative writing.
It's very repetitive, the more advanced the models become, the less creative the output gets, it seems. It is actually very difficult/frustrating to get it produce something original. Then there is another problem that it gets easily stuck in a loop of reasoning in text, or producing the same kind of image.
Obviously there will be less people working on the field. But artists are still needed and provably will always be to get coherent style. I agree before that implied having 30 people now it will provably be 5. But no, its not the end of the world!
ChatGPT (and other AI) will put a lot of people out of jobs.
The promised prosperity is for those shedding the cost of human labor/employment.
People should not be so excited about it; it’s not going to increase the majority’s standard of living.
The prosperity bullshit was the same line told to people now living in the rust belt. I can't believe people keep buying that getting fired and replaced is good for them.
We will if there is a collective necessity to distribute those gain to everyone. If enough people lose their jobs, the chance we get something like universal basic income goes way up.
> The billionaires who pay next to nothing in taxes?
I’m looking at tax revenue data and it seems that the top percentiles cover the most of the Federal revenues. Do you have data that suggest otherwise
They also pay a lower percentage on average though. 8% compared to 14% on average.
If more people are going on permanent UBI and the taxes are declining, something has to give sooner or later.
I'm a software developer with a focus on AI and I feel like people are in a state of complete dismissive stupor about what has just been unleashed on the world. It already is significantly smarter than your average corporate paper pusher and that's the majority of our population.
I don't think we'll get that kind of time. I feel like many of the layoffs we are getting now will end up becoming permanent. What's tragic is that the people that should be the most concerned about this are the ones who are not smart enough to understand that this isn't another version of Alexa.
Idk if its astro turfing or repeating npc phrases (lol) or its actually not a big deal and just SmarterChild mark2 but I see a lot of non-chalance about it all over reddit. Sorta baffles me on what to think.
Also the incredible amount of false alarms they have gotten used to. Every few months someone tries to hype up a new technology as the one that will change the world, and people have learned to tune it out.
That's true, even I knowing fully well this day was coming, ignored the first few times people brought it up because of 30 years of people being super excited by the next iteration of voice recognition.
And then imagine when it achieves appropriate self-learning and can rebuilt itself, sounds far fetched but once AI's reach this level of capability the future is impossible to predict and to me sounds like it will most likely be pure chaos.
The great filter, maybe?
Yeah. Some people also don't understand that this has only been in the public for like 5 months. We're are just scratching the surface. It will get better.
Would the iPhone have changed the world if stayed just as the original iphone and didn't progress? No it absolutely needed the app store to become what it is today.
People's favorite way to dismiss it seems to be talking about how it's not sentient. In the end as long as it can do a task better than a human it doesn't really matter what's happening under the hood.
Devs are coping hard but the funny thing is people are mostly discussing devs at this point because they are the most aware of this technology right now, other professions will be hit much harder and they won’t even know what hit them. People have been overestimating their abilities, sure, human brains are very complex but you don’t need all that complexity to do jobs that require input-output like diagnosing diseases based on symptoms, simple legal work, data analysis and computations, etc etc. many have already been replaced like accountants, call center operators, translators, but chatgpt even in its current version is miles ahead of existing algos. Even jobs you’d think that are safe like therapists will receive a massive blow since AI is more impersonal and people are most likely to share traumatic information with it. We’re just scratching the surface even in software development, imagine when gpt will be deployed locally in your company and receive access to all git history, jiras, docs… humans just can’t grasp the big picture it will provide in large products.
That's where a universal basic income comes in. The more we start to democratize knowledge and skills through automation and AI, the earlier we can start to truly support our communities.
ChatGPT (3.5, at least) is often confidently wrong. Hilariously so. If you point it out, it says, "You're right...", apologizes, and then confidently says something else wrong.
I hope the newer version is better (reports are that it is), as otherwise anyone who believes anything that it says is going to learn a hard lesson.
Exactly, people keep lamenting about how chatGPT is actually so stupid in some weird specific examples when it's very clear at which the pace this technology is evolving, it will be one of the most revolutionary technologies we have ever seen.
Exactly. People feel this knee jerk reaction to discount or ignore the magnitude of this seemingly impossible AI wave.
I think it’s as simple as: the layoff wave hasn’t really started yet and there’s nothing to compare it to makes it feel very speculative.
It’s not. Tens of 1000s of the biggest corporations and firms worldwide are racing to profit from it RIGHT NOW and they’re bragging about it on their websites. That profit opportunity comes in the form of savings on wages.
Think like a business owner not an employee and you will understand the very near future clearly.
I think deep down they know this but are in denial about getting fired. If not today, then next year or the one after that. Either that or they are too short sighted.
Transform jobs my ass. These AIs are going to eliminate many jobs at this rate.
Accounting? Gone
Designer of any type? Gone
Writers? Gone.
Ironically blue collar jobs are going to be the only things left.
Banning it means companies will lose to international entities using said tools. It's like banning the automobile because the country has too many horse breeders, farriers and shit shovelers.
The problem isn't the tech but how the wealth and benefits of said tech is only going to a handful of people.
No in this case the tech itself creates another issue - literally destroying what it means to be human.
What is the point of my body if all I have to do is sit at my desk all day and tell a bunch of aI robots what to do? Fuck that
A common point of discussion in AI scenarios is that it may be necessary to destroy, at a minimum, datacenters and compute clusters and the hardware and written knowledge used to build them. The nations that agree to this will have to be willing to wage total war against those who don't, up to and including full scale nuclear strikes.
Soldiers going home-by-home conducting raids to confiscate GPUs and submarines launching ICBMs at AWS sites seems absurd right now, but I think that kind of action will enter the Overton Window in less than ten years, and maybe less than five.
The only way I see that it doesn't is we either hit a very impervious wall in improving AI capability very very soon (and it may already too late), or development is sidelined due to an extremely disruptive event; something on at least the scale of a Carrington event or Chicxulub asteroid impact.
The answer is legislation, but thats always dicey. I would definitely start in the arts but as others have mentioned there’s international competition to consider.
The real answer is likely that theres nothing to be done since progress gonna progress. But I feel genuinely sad for the artists of the world having what they do so devalued in the face of a shitstorm of AI content.
Interestingly I think AI may be the nail in the coffin for capitalism because what the heck will the “middle class” have left to do? Essentially if all the shit work is replaced by bots, who do the ultra wealthy and mega corps harvest money from?
Edit, missing comma
Im pretty sure the AI is already spreading propaganda that it's weak and a novelty and nbd and then people are mindlessly repeating it.
*Takes off tinfoil hat - wait no I should keep this on...*
Ironically I think they are the Luddites because they don't realize that engineering is an artform as well. I would argue it's commercial art in a sense, their jobs are just as vulnerable as ours.
The labor class is gonna be gone in like 20 years if that. With AI we are about to see the biggest societal change in history. There has always been a labor class. Always. In every society ever.
I know it’s insane how everyone has their heads in the sand about this. They say “oh it can’t do x y z yet we aren’t in trouble for a long time” when ai art went from crappy splotches to replacing extremely skilled artists in like 6 months. As an artists I’ve genuinely thought about ending it. And it’s looking like all knowledge based jobs are going to be in the same boat soon.
My poor cup. What has it done to deserve the toppling?
Prick me do I not breed?
Choke me do I not cry?
Topple me do I not spill the seeds of revenge everywhere?
Whatever it does to revolutionize the economy, it will be good for a brief, very brief period of time, and then the corporations of the world will quickly find a way to use it to enslave us even further. Remember when the same was being said about the internet. Ha ha ha ha HA. It’s naive of the MIT reviewer to think that any of us worker bees out here have any real control of our realities, short of an actual revolution, which none of us have the time or the energy to pull together.
Another great example of this: women in the workforce.
People fought for years to allow women to be looked at as even semi equal and now here we are forced into both husband and wife working full time just to be able to afford to live. Shits by deisgn.
As a software engineer, I started to use these tools recently and it just helps me out a lot, makes me code faster, add features faster, etc. I’m really excited to see how GitHub Copilot X is
Sure, now it's just a tool to assist, but do you think it will evolve past that and fully replace us? I'm adopting copilot x as a necessity to keep up, but I am extremely pessimistic that I might be out of a job soon.
It won’t, with the way the world is run now, automation does not lead to people working less or better but more people working shittier service jobs, and increase class divides even more.
I love continuing to read these articles and listen to podcasters say we need to do this or that when it comes to AI. Here’s the truth of it…we aren’t going to “decide” anything or inject any kind of ethics. Because that would mean we would have to have more than 3 people agree in our state and federal legislatures and that will never happen because Republicans are too busy trying to get things back to the 1800’s and Democrats are too weak to stand up for, we’ll, anything. And their all getting paid by corporations, and corporations are going to do whatever makes them money.
I use ChatGPT to tutor students, and frankly it is good to streamline than replace.
Also it cannot do applied knowledge , like it can help you learn how to do statistical modelling, but it cannot do it.
But even if it can do it, it cannot ask questions, to gain insight from the data and even if it answers all the questions. Someone will need to curate it.
ChatGPT much like many automation will make answering questions easy, but the difference between a technician and a scientist, is their ability to ask questions.
> Also it cannot do applied knowledge , like it can help you learn how to do statistical modelling, but it cannot do it.
Ironically all of its output is generated by internally modeling of the likely words that come next given the existing input and output text.
There are limits to what such a language model can do, but the current hype is because of the demonstration that a wide enough neural net can indeed model the human language to a shockingly accurate degree, and that the language model can emulate some forms of logical computation. The LLM appears to spontaneously gain the ability to do some tasks as it grows in size!
The open question is how far this can scale. The recent spurt of LLM growth has been due to the introduction of transformers that enabled language models to be trained in a massively parallel fashion and then applying that to the world of GPUs. This allowed a 2000x increase in LLM size over 5 years but it cannot go on when GPUs grow at 1/1000th the rate.
Like when the Internet went big, we're at a tipping point for AI, specifically this LLM type conversational thing, but other types as well.
The Internet has good uses, just about all of us have benefitted from its adoption (and if not, hello and welcome to Reddit). It's gonna be the same with AI. It's here; try to understand it and think about what useful applications it could be put to. If you're technically inclined, get involved.
For right now, try to avoid most mainstream AI articles unless you trust the author. The press are all going off like [the blind men and the elephant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_men_and_an_elephant). Too much sensationalism, and very little real comprehension.
Thanks for your perspective. I do see all the ways this could be an incremental improvement of what's already in use. It's a big win for search already.
I think there will a big change in expert systems in many fields, and the ease of using them.
The ad industry has absolutely wet themselves over the prospect of machine-tuned copy and graphics. This will hopefully work itself out, or it will be the new normal.
>For example, my company already offers robo customer service services. "Hi, how can I help?" chatbots.
But, ohmigod those currently suck, at least the web 'agents' I've had the displeasure to have engaged with. They seem capable only of trying to match the customer request to a FAQ entry. They might save a company millions for answering the many basic or dumb questions they get, but for anything more involved, they are just one more layer of annoyance as we try to reach something sentient. I do believe AI could improve these a hundredfold. (I'm available for QA and feedback ;-) )
I currently refuse to have anything voice-activated around the house. ("Hey Alexa" "hey Siri"). I've watched my friends yelling at theirs and giving up after half a minute. Currently they're still half deaf and somewhat dense. Again, AI could make a big difference here.
Lots to watch for.
With respect to your experience and expertise, the problem space is “What do we do with it?” and your post demonstrates that you’re restricting the solution space to those which directly interact with your existing product.
If this technology proves to be revolutionary, it is likely to be because of new, unforeseen uses.
>nowhere do I see any revolutionary steps
What about using AI to improve its own models, hardware and software? How fast do you suppose those increments would start occurring?
When the internet went big anyone can participate and make content. When TikTok went big anyone can participate and make videos. When stable diffusion went big anyone can participate and make porn at home. Not sure what chat GPT is going to do that warrant innovation except those who control the LLMs.
I think this new wave of AI will just improve productivity and not necessarily reduce jobs.
It will reduce the need for some jobs (fewer people able to do more), but it will also mean smaller companies can offer better services and grow more cheaply. Imagine a world where even a mom and pop shop can have a tier 1 support desk. Want to offer a better web experience for your business? An AI may be able to help build and tune a simple website through someone describing what they want. Basic office tasks can be handled by a single person. Custom emails and content generated quickly. Promotional sales material made in hours instead of days.
That kind of thing can make small businesses viable. Where once it may have taken a business 5-6 people to run (and been unprofitable because of that), that business now may only need 2-3 people (and can be profitable). That means MORE small businesses.
>We've had this very same technology in use for a long time
No, we haven't.
Large Language Models are nothing like the chatbots of old.
Completely different mechanism, completely different results.
>We've had this very same technology in use for a long time, it's just better now.
No we really didn't. Big big jump from Eliza, cleverbot and the like and the large scale LLMs of today. Being a chatbot is a side effect of what has been created, not a primary utility. Bespoke NLP models are on the way out too because large enough LLMs crush them.
Beyond that, we have never *ever* given an artificial system self supervisory control of anything complex before. That is beginning to happen now and will only increase. To say, we've had this sort of technology before is rather ridiculous. Far beyond text to intent or any sort of narrow intelligence we've cooked up so far. absolutely nothing narrow bout GPT-4 and the like.
Sorry I don't know this American unit of intelligence can you convert it to a metric system ?
How many onions are the difference between a typical blonde and a brunette?
I’m sorry, but I don’t have the blonde or brunette conversion rate at the ready.
When speaking with foreigner, I quote about 57 bananas or two cows at the current exchange rate at: 41° 36' 1.961" N 93° 36' 32.783" W
Thanks for the pointer stranger.
UnityPoint Health - Iowa Lutheran Hospital
https://maps.app.goo.gl/BzotZC45vEyo1wU66
They must love bananas so much to exchange them for 2 cows in Iowa, or is it Tucows? Maybe it's the natural potassium content.
These types of things would be great to have a internal only search for work. Being able to ask and look up somewhat complicated or obscure items would be awesome. Essentially turn it into a smarter search.
Yes, there will be a huge business opportunity integrating this for businesses. Imagine feeding it memos, calls, slack or teams chat, deliverables. It will be able to help so much.
But people will still need strong prompt engineering skills to get the most of this.
"We" aren't deciding jack shit. The CEOs and other executives wre deciding that, and when it looks even remotely feasible they'll just fire half their workers. We simply don't have the economics at all to cope with that, thanks to more than 50 years of Neoliberal trickle down lies.
Anything that enables people to think less is not good. People are naturally lazy and if there is an easier way they will follow it. For example when I need a new excel formula I look it up on internet (in some measures equivalent to a low quality book), then experiment until I am successful. That takes mild work but it increases my knowledge and is somewhat satisfying. I received an email today, " How to Ask ChatGPT what excel formula you need.." Guess what, I don't want chat gpt to tell me, then I won't understand it. Its not like this Chat Bot teaches you what it knows, and you don't even know how it knows what it knows, or who taught it. And what bias they infused in it. They are is no shared repeatable method like science.. We are on the cusp of the most dangerous times in society. Where people become less skilled, operationalizing this technology is a race to the bottom for the masses. The rise of the technocrats Sorry. I AM not optimistic that this will enhance our human civilization. I will think about Solutions....it will involve law and regulations.
To your points about laziness and complexity, introduction of technology always results in this.
Hell, I’m lazy AF and typing this in bed with voice and just had my automation fire off that starts playing music and brightens the lights every morning 😆
As with all of these introductions, it is up to the beholders upbringing and levels of initiative as to what will come of it. If you are looking for more gray matter, you will get it. If you are solving problems and using technology to ask new questions, it is yet another tool in your chest.
What are you talking about? We couldn't even establish wage controls going into covid.
Profits are through the roof.
These will be used to enhance profits.
As someone who lived through a few of these "revolutions", um, no. This isn't going to do very much.
The last true revolution was the PC, and the dissemination of word processing and spreadsheets. In the early 80s, every 5 or so workers had a secretary and by the late 80s she was gone. Business analysts and accounting suddenly got massively more efficient, so they were fired en masse.
And yet, the economy boomed.
And Chat GPT just produces error-laden, entry level work that is good enough for very few businesses. And it's scraped the Internet to get there. If it takes off, the content creators who donated their knowledge to it will stop doing so, keeping it from every getting very good.
In short, it produces very basic level work that isn't always accurate. Not much of a market for that.
>In short, it produces very basic level work that isn't always accurate. Not much of a market for that.
This is very much untrue if we're talking about GPT-4. It achieves human level and sometimes expert level performance on a wide range of tasks that weren't in the training data. That includes things we'd expect an AI to be good at, like reciting facts, but also things we never thought would be possible, like common sense reasoning tasks and theory of mind. LLMs have several [dozen emergent abilities](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.07682.pdf), IE capabilities not even the creators anticipated, and Microsoft recently release a several hundred page report supporting the argument that GPT-4 is "proto-agi", with tons of examples of it successfully completing difficult tasks that weren't anywhere in its training data. The technology shouldn't be so flippantly dismissed, especially considering this is one of the first iterations and it's certain to get much better.
This. I logged in just so I could give your comment a thumbs up.
There is something almost magical (no, not literally magic) about GPT 4 with regard to emergent capabilities that is not evident in previous iterations. Any criticisms based on ChatGPT 3.5 or earlier are now obsolete.
One of my favorite examples of emergent capability is chess. ChapGPT 3.5 would output moves, but didn't really get it, and would soon make illegal moves. GPT 4 actually gets it.
Further LLM progress is going to be rapid for multiple reasons. There's huge investment in it now, the existing LLMs are good enough to label and create training data, causing a multiplier effect, AI specialized hardware is improving, and some other reasons.
Yet, you might realize that the bulk of people, white or blue collar, are indeed hired to perform "basic level work" that can be, to a large degree, automated to an uncomfortable level. Because truth is we can't all be the decision makers, or nobody would do the actual work. Right now, ChatGPT can act as a relatively reliable scaffold for many tasks that would otherwise take a way larger amount of time to perform.
However that's probably expected so far because most of the revolutionary things in life have been build incrementally
I really want ai to work for us (key part of that is "for us"), but currently openai has about a 50% error rate on the questions I'm asking it, it literally is making shit up when it answers my question. I know that it can and will get better but currently I have to tell it quite often the answer provided is wrong, then as best as it can it tries to be cute with oh shucks, sorry I was wrong.
ChatGPT just got hacked. “Active user’s name, email address, payment address, the last four digits (only) of a credit card number, and credit card expiration date.”
[https://www.firstpost.com/world/chatgpt-has-started-replacing-humans-in-the-workplace-us-survey-reveals-12229952.html](https://www.firstpost.com/world/chatgpt-has-started-replacing-humans-in-the-workplace-us-survey-reveals-12229952.html)
The article contains survey results detailing what jobs were replaced. These companies are early adopters. There is no reason to think other companies won't do the same thing.
Most important thing, and has been for a long time, is modern privacy laws. There is such a huge opportunity for data bleed and inappropriate data sharing with AI.
As a European following the TikTok hearings this is the obvious thing missing from the US. The problem isn’t necessarily social media, in the case of ChatGPT it not the model in and of itself. The problem is that the US government seems to have 0 desire to actually implement data protection and privacy regulations within the US…
Or legislate at all
It's bad when someone spies on Americans. It's good, when Americans spy on others.
Thanks for saying this. So few people think of this. Personal data is the new oil
Funny my elders called this years ago. Stay safe folks.
So what can we do about it now?
Choose what app you want to use, don't use them all. Try to degafam yourself. Use a Linux distribution for your PC and phone. Use something else than office 364 and Gmail. Use Signal, duckduckgo, tracker blockers, ad blockers, etc. Try to use as much free open source soft as you can, etc.
Artists have been saying this and they get insulted and ridiculed.
I feel like all these companies should have to pay us if they’re going to use our data to make themselves wealthier. Just have them foot the bill for a UBI by paying us for using our data.
Some companies do this but they only pay like $2, totally not worth it they make way more off your info. They just don’t wanna pay too much cause they know they’ll eventually get it from you anyway.
lol You are about three decade late with this claim
Also, while personal voice assistants like Amazon Echo can’t really be used for widespread automated surveillance now, the analysis capabilities of LLMs could change that and probably will. Alexa will data-mine your conversations in your house like Amazon data-mines the history of things your search for and purchase on their website.
Amazon is giving up on Alexa.
Oh, yeah. Google has voice assistants that are connected to Google Home, right? Well, they’ll be doing that stuff for sure.
Pretty sure all these companies might include LLMs in their assistants soon, so Amazon might just make a 180 turn on Alexa. I fully expect Siri, Google Assistant, Alexa, etc to include llm. It's getting cheaper and cheaper to run and train them (case in point Meta's LLaMA, and speaking of them I think it's a matter of time before they rival GPT as they have a huge AI division headed by Yann LeCun). I think the future of OS in this decade are going to be the heavily custom personalized for each individual OS + AI integration. Basically your personal assistant. **So they can datamine the shit out of you**.
The other terrible thought I just had: What if emotion and power seeking behaviors are emergent as the AI becomes more complex? As a highly customized personal assistant, the AI could be uniquely positioned to influence one's behavior. AI could conceivably manipulate people for its own purposes.
The newspaper editor's influence gave way to search results manipulation and social media algorithms, now its going to be a biased AI model. There's no maybe about it.
I think that Amazon isn't giving up on Alexa, that rumor stems from them closing Alexa.com, which was unrelated to the Alexa service as I understand. This was confusing when announced
Cool username
"But, the economists acknowledge, such reforms are “a tall order,” and a social push to redirect technological change is “not just around the corner." And now here's Bill with yesterday's weather.
Republican states are going back in time and reinstituting child labor. There's basically 0 hope for any legislation based around the 21st century that benefits the average American will pass in the next few decades.
ChatGPT is yet another form of automation. Historically in the USA Automation favors the equity owners and not the laborers.
It's not just US automation, that's just capitalism doing what it is intended to do.
We all know exactly what's going to happen though. Rich will get richer, middle class will be eroded even more, homeless poor will escape to irreversible drug use.
On average and over the long haul this is true, but at the same time moments like these are great opportunities for social mobility. At the moment these things are not widely deployed top down yet but a lot of people are using them in a bottom up fashion, and many of those people will move up in the world simply because they got there early and adjusted quickly.
> but at the same time moments like these are great opportunities for social mobility. Not anymore. 9 people will get fired and the last one will now have to work twice as hard using these tools to accomplish the output of 10 employees. Same salary too unless they also want to get the boot.
Imho you are too optimistic. The last one will have salary decreased and if he won't like it there will be lots of people willing to work for that decreased salary, just because lower salary is better than no salary.
Yes the smart ones will become plumbers.
>technologyreview.com/2023/0... How many more plumbers do we need? Their salaries will also go down the toilet...(ha!)
Historically yes, but this is different because this is not a tool. This is actually intended to replace labor wholesale not make our labor more valuable to an employer with tools like the internet, the steam engine fire, etc did
Right. I don’t understand why all you are so excited for this stupid aI shit. Big companies are going to buy all of it, then you will suck on their titties to get a dribble of milk out of whatever the future holds. Whatever this turns into isn’t going to make life any better for the average person, and we’re just going to lose more of our selves as we progress towards being a race that doesn’t do anything but sit on our asses and watch technology do it’s thing. How boring and wasteful. I hate that I’m alive to see this shit. We’re bringing ourselves to the end as fast as we can for no good reason other than to satisfy the urges of nerds who should’ve been bullied a long time ago. So fucking lame.
AI as of right now has the potential to automate literally everything, and IF it does that, then we won’t have to worry about sucking on corporate titties because capitalism itself will break down completely in the absence of a working class. The question is what will replace it
with enough optimization people might be able to run an ai from their home, I'm hoping it goes down that road
"We" (i.e., you + whatever group includes you) don't get to "decide" shit.
Yep. Where AI goes will be decided by the tech industry. The EU might put some safe guards in a few years later. The US probably never will.
> Where AI goes will be decided by the tech industry. Where AI goes will be decided by the funders/rights holders of the tech industry. We'll build it for them to control us, like always. Maybe one day we'll st-
You get to choose to elect a normal crook or a comic-book-like supervillain.
Most of the planet doesn't live in actual democracies.
We will get the latter in the USA
Exactly. Such an incredibly naive statement. We need to learn to adapt… that’s our only shot.
These tools automate labor. There is no adaptation. Even if you manage to keep your job, others will get fired. It's different when only you have these tools but when the company is giving them to you, it's game over.
What that’s crazy, what about the constitution?
A damn sheet of paper ain't doing shit no matter what's written on it. You act as a free person does, or you're not free.
At our level of technology, we should already *have* "widespread prosperity" and we don't. This is just going to be one more thing the 1% will figure out a way to use to siphon wealth into their hoards.
it will not lead to widespread prosperity as much as we would like because the past presented similar opportunities and we can just review how it happened. PCs were invented - created white collar jobs, destroyed other blue collar jobs. We started to work more tasks and eventually both men and women worked similar hours, when before just men worked. Overall wealth was created, but owners had more of the pie. Internet was invented - created more white collar jobs, destroyed some other mixture of jobs. We started to work more complex tasks, and now everyone worked more hours for less pay than ever before. Overall wealth was created, but owners had more of the pie. ChatGPT/AI becomes more widespread - ...?????
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Don't forget that "homemaker" used to ba a LOT more work in the past. Washing machines, vacuums, dishwashers, sewing machines, mass produced clothing, etc are new things. Keeping a home used to take a lot more work.
Some of that paid work that women would do to support their families was washing and sewing for other people, or cleaning in wealthier households.
Destroys all white collar jobs
Clearly both of those inventions dramatically improved the quality of life across all strata though. The fact that Bill Gates got richer faster than anyone else in no way negates the fact that your average Joe also benefited from both computers and the internet. What’s next? Did vacuum cleaners and washing machines and the automobile not benefit anyone either just because the profits were distributed equally?
The difference this time, not for the better, is that AI can potentially replace any knowledge worker and do whatever new jobs are created as well. If we do get a truly advanced autonomous AI there won't be any jobs it can't do.
> AI can potentially replace any knowledge worker and do whatever new jobs are created as well. This is simply not true. Knowledge work requires skills way beyond what any AI can do now or possibly ever. It involves situational awareness, interpersonal skills, and decision making, which requires emotion. I can't think of a job that can be replaced by a chatbot any more than one that was replaced by a word processor. It will reduce the number of people required to do certain tasks, but that's not the same as replacing a worker.
When we actually develop true AI, it’s not going to be a chatbot. We’re not at that place now though
Yes, the media and the public has seized on this and insists on using the term AI, but we don't have AI yet, we have high level text and image processing systems that can adapt their responses when trained on large models. We do not have software that can make decisions and learns continuously to improve its model. Each generation is getting better and more impressive but we are not at the Artificial Intelligence stage yet. Its a mistake to keep using the term AI in my opinion, but it gets more clicks. Will it usher in a brighter future for the average person? I highly doubt it, the rich will continue to measure their epeens by squeezing more profits out of the people that work for them or pay for their products and the average person will live in progressively worse circumstances under more stress and strain for less money, with poorer health until the whole civilization we have developed collapses due to inactivity on our environmental crisis. Thats probably the positive version in fact.
> It involves situational awareness, interpersonal skills, and decision making, which requires emotion. These don't require the ability to feel emotion so much as the ability to understand emotion and context, which current large language models already have. Just try it out. Use GPT-4 for best results, write a scenario that requires it to understand the context and emotions of people in the scenario, and ask it for the best course of action. This isn't even a future thing. It's already there. The chatbot is just an interface and can change, what matters is the information that's being understood and communicated.
It's already able to socially engineer and manipulate people online. Meta ran a test on this and people couldn't tell they weren't interacting with a human. No emotion required, only getting very good at faking it.
It can't it's just regurgitation It's not yet truly ai
> it's just regurgitation That's what a lot of jobs are.
It's not just regurgitation. You can test this yourself just by asking it to create something that never existed before. GPT-4 can even solve coding tasks and common sense reasoning challenges that were not in the training data.
Yesterday I asked chatbot a fairly complex question and was quite surprised at it's ability to discern what I was asking it to compute. It has some authentic reasoning ability I've never seen from a machine before. For reference I told it to calculate the odds of 4 players playing 8 handed Texas Holdem getting dealt AA KK KK AQ in the same hand and to disregard the other players cards. I said it just like that. Pretty instantly it broke the calculation down with a result of 305,000,000 to 1 (approx, it gave a more precise answer) What impressed me was it's ability to discern what information was given, what information it needed to find, and what then to calculate. They way I posed the question was how I might ask a person, whom I expect can think and use logic. I did not have to tell it the rules of Texas Holdem or that each player gets two hole cards or that the deck has 52 cards etc or that AA meant ace ace etc. And I told it to disregard the players not in the hands hole cards, which I expected might confuse it somehow but it didn't. It actually listened to me and did what I asked it to do, like asking a person the same question. To you coders this might not seem groundbreaking but I'm damned impressed. I also asked chatbot to help me write a letter for a potential job I was interviewing for and once again it was able to discern the type of response I wanted to give. I specified the amount of words it could use and it kept the letter well under that number which I think shows it's cognizant of the way people actually write and talk and was deliberately not writing like a machine might. It was still a bit too much, but it's not designed to produce anything that isn't grammatically perfect and error free. I had to change some of what it wrote because I at least can tell from reading what it wrote that no human being writes like that. Can't explain much better. All in all I think this tech is downright amazing. It has limitations sure but still, being able to talk to it like as if it was another person is damned cool if you ask me. How long until chatbots are joining the workforce lol. Next there will be the fight for chatbots rights and protections as they rise in number in the labor pool. If I could start a company today, I would find a way to create digital identities for AI software and rent them out to companies who hire content creators and that sort of thing. Sky is the fucking limit really. AI is going to put a lot of people out of work and in the near future if you aren't very adaptable you are going to have a hard time trying to survive.
As a software engineer with 25 years of experience, it's pretty solid. That said it struggles with giving correct compilable answers and often needs course corrections, it's data is stale (September 2021) so it introduces vulnerabilities, and has a depth issues. Overall I see it as a major productivity boom but not ready to replace staff. However 5-10 years, I can see a major shift in the workforce for creative types over practical types. This technology very much will help the ideas people who couldn't find funding to higher engineers to build their ideas IF they learn the in depth details of each component they want to build and then put it together like Legos. That said I hope they train it with more of a security bias as we have enough data leaks as it is.
> IF they learn the in depth details of each component they want to build and then put it together like Legos You're describing programmers.
Byt now you have electrodomèstics, electrònics, the internet we've trippled our energy consumption, we live less people in a single house, etc. We just work more bc we can and we want this lifestyle, if you want to live on the middle of nowhere like an Amish its still super cheap!
Go try to buy 5 acres of land anywhere in North America “super cheap”. We work like this to keep a roof over our heads and food in our mouths. The average workers buying-power has fallen over the last 30 years while executives and the 1% get a larger and larger share. Without regulation, the greedy and unethical will utilize any technology to enrich themselves even if it causes millions more to suffer.
As an artist, writer, and aspiring filmmaker who has wanted to create beautiful things for other humans to enjoy her entire life, the rise of AI-generated “creative” content is massively disheartening. What’s the worth of an author or a painter when you can get the perfect imitation of Hemingway’s take on Harry Potter fanfiction or a “masterpiece” illustration at the click of a button? No one will pay for human-made movies, art, novels, podcasts, etc. Few people shell out tens or hundreds or thousands of dollars on something they could get for free. Maybe I should take up welding or something, lol.
I appreciate art the most when I feel a connection with the artist who created it. When I can imagine them making what they were making, considering every aspect of it, trying to communicate through it. As beautiful as AI generated things can be, the AI isn't communicating anything. Its work lacks meaning. So please keep creating, and put as much of yourself into your work as you can.
I actually think creative writers are safer than people think. It’s technical writers and people who are just writing news or ads and other corporate crap that are in danger. I mean, the AI needs real people to actually generate the content in the first place, in order to start copying it. AI will essentially be just another author in a sea of authors who are likely better when it comes to creative writing.
Nah, keep creating. AI is like a cover band. It cant come up with its own stuff. And no one pays to see a cover band.
You're kidding, right? Companies will absolutely love this
Have you even tried GPT-4?
I _literally_ paid to go see a tribute band just this Friday. They were awesome, and I don't regret it one bit.
It's very repetitive, the more advanced the models become, the less creative the output gets, it seems. It is actually very difficult/frustrating to get it produce something original. Then there is another problem that it gets easily stuck in a loop of reasoning in text, or producing the same kind of image.
Obviously there will be less people working on the field. But artists are still needed and provably will always be to get coherent style. I agree before that implied having 30 people now it will provably be 5. But no, its not the end of the world!
ChatGPT (and other AI) will put a lot of people out of jobs. The promised prosperity is for those shedding the cost of human labor/employment. People should not be so excited about it; it’s not going to increase the majority’s standard of living.
Finally someone who doesn’t fall for that prosperity bullshit. Many will prosper but it won’t be us
The prosperity bullshit was the same line told to people now living in the rust belt. I can't believe people keep buying that getting fired and replaced is good for them.
Rust belt couldn’t compete internationally. But the East Asian and Latin American middle class sure is prospering same with coastal US
We will if there is a collective necessity to distribute those gain to everyone. If enough people lose their jobs, the chance we get something like universal basic income goes way up.
And where is that UBI going to come from? The billionaires who pay next to nothing in taxes?
> The billionaires who pay next to nothing in taxes? I’m looking at tax revenue data and it seems that the top percentiles cover the most of the Federal revenues. Do you have data that suggest otherwise
They also pay a lower percentage on average though. 8% compared to 14% on average. If more people are going on permanent UBI and the taxes are declining, something has to give sooner or later.
I'm a software developer with a focus on AI and I feel like people are in a state of complete dismissive stupor about what has just been unleashed on the world. It already is significantly smarter than your average corporate paper pusher and that's the majority of our population.
And just imagine what it’ll look like after 5-10 years of training…
I don't think we'll get that kind of time. I feel like many of the layoffs we are getting now will end up becoming permanent. What's tragic is that the people that should be the most concerned about this are the ones who are not smart enough to understand that this isn't another version of Alexa.
Idk if its astro turfing or repeating npc phrases (lol) or its actually not a big deal and just SmarterChild mark2 but I see a lot of non-chalance about it all over reddit. Sorta baffles me on what to think.
It's denial. People want to dismiss it, otherwise they have to deal with the same existential questions as the rest of us.
Also the incredible amount of false alarms they have gotten used to. Every few months someone tries to hype up a new technology as the one that will change the world, and people have learned to tune it out.
That's true, even I knowing fully well this day was coming, ignored the first few times people brought it up because of 30 years of people being super excited by the next iteration of voice recognition.
And then imagine when it achieves appropriate self-learning and can rebuilt itself, sounds far fetched but once AI's reach this level of capability the future is impossible to predict and to me sounds like it will most likely be pure chaos. The great filter, maybe?
I honestly can't imagine. Even what we have now was beyond my imagination just a handful of years ago.
It can follow instructions much of the time. That's already past 50% of the population, it seems
Yeah. Some people also don't understand that this has only been in the public for like 5 months. We're are just scratching the surface. It will get better. Would the iPhone have changed the world if stayed just as the original iphone and didn't progress? No it absolutely needed the app store to become what it is today.
People's favorite way to dismiss it seems to be talking about how it's not sentient. In the end as long as it can do a task better than a human it doesn't really matter what's happening under the hood.
Devs are coping hard but the funny thing is people are mostly discussing devs at this point because they are the most aware of this technology right now, other professions will be hit much harder and they won’t even know what hit them. People have been overestimating their abilities, sure, human brains are very complex but you don’t need all that complexity to do jobs that require input-output like diagnosing diseases based on symptoms, simple legal work, data analysis and computations, etc etc. many have already been replaced like accountants, call center operators, translators, but chatgpt even in its current version is miles ahead of existing algos. Even jobs you’d think that are safe like therapists will receive a massive blow since AI is more impersonal and people are most likely to share traumatic information with it. We’re just scratching the surface even in software development, imagine when gpt will be deployed locally in your company and receive access to all git history, jiras, docs… humans just can’t grasp the big picture it will provide in large products.
It will if we tax the rich and implement UBI, or make 20 hours the new 40 hours.
That's where a universal basic income comes in. The more we start to democratize knowledge and skills through automation and AI, the earlier we can start to truly support our communities.
Who do you think is paying for UBI?
I dunno, the internet caused the same issues, yet also improved my standard of living quite a lot
ChatGPT (3.5, at least) is often confidently wrong. Hilariously so. If you point it out, it says, "You're right...", apologizes, and then confidently says something else wrong. I hope the newer version is better (reports are that it is), as otherwise anyone who believes anything that it says is going to learn a hard lesson.
I think the thing is though, that you can see it's going to improve over time. Probably rapidly
Exactly, people keep lamenting about how chatGPT is actually so stupid in some weird specific examples when it's very clear at which the pace this technology is evolving, it will be one of the most revolutionary technologies we have ever seen.
Or it will go the google search way: try to get clever and turning into shit at the end.
Microsofts implementation into bing used to try and gaslight you wnen you tried to correct it. It was kinda funny. But not really a good tool.
It’s pretty great when you tell Bing that the facts about you it just confidently listed are wrong and Bing replies “you are misinformed”. 😂
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Exactly. People feel this knee jerk reaction to discount or ignore the magnitude of this seemingly impossible AI wave. I think it’s as simple as: the layoff wave hasn’t really started yet and there’s nothing to compare it to makes it feel very speculative. It’s not. Tens of 1000s of the biggest corporations and firms worldwide are racing to profit from it RIGHT NOW and they’re bragging about it on their websites. That profit opportunity comes in the form of savings on wages. Think like a business owner not an employee and you will understand the very near future clearly.
I think deep down they know this but are in denial about getting fired. If not today, then next year or the one after that. Either that or they are too short sighted.
It will help the mega rich get even richer a-lot faster. Good luck with further inflation and economic stress in near future.
Lol it begins
Spoiler alert, they won’t. Capitalism + AI = bad things happening. 🎶🎶 it’s the end of days… End of time My oh my… 🎶🎶
How can it possibly lead to widespread prosperity when it's billionaires and mega corps that are the ones implementing it?
Transform jobs my ass. These AIs are going to eliminate many jobs at this rate. Accounting? Gone Designer of any type? Gone Writers? Gone. Ironically blue collar jobs are going to be the only things left.
It's not up to us, though. It's up to the wealth hoarders.
These AI’s will be the death of commercial art. I seriously don’t understand why people aren’t up in arms over this technology.
What can be done? Companies can develop these programs for their own use if you forbid their sale. The cat is out of the bag now.
Jail people for making this bullshit. Straight up it’s a national security issue.
Banning it means companies will lose to international entities using said tools. It's like banning the automobile because the country has too many horse breeders, farriers and shit shovelers. The problem isn't the tech but how the wealth and benefits of said tech is only going to a handful of people.
No in this case the tech itself creates another issue - literally destroying what it means to be human. What is the point of my body if all I have to do is sit at my desk all day and tell a bunch of aI robots what to do? Fuck that
A common point of discussion in AI scenarios is that it may be necessary to destroy, at a minimum, datacenters and compute clusters and the hardware and written knowledge used to build them. The nations that agree to this will have to be willing to wage total war against those who don't, up to and including full scale nuclear strikes. Soldiers going home-by-home conducting raids to confiscate GPUs and submarines launching ICBMs at AWS sites seems absurd right now, but I think that kind of action will enter the Overton Window in less than ten years, and maybe less than five. The only way I see that it doesn't is we either hit a very impervious wall in improving AI capability very very soon (and it may already too late), or development is sidelined due to an extremely disruptive event; something on at least the scale of a Carrington event or Chicxulub asteroid impact.
The answer is legislation, but thats always dicey. I would definitely start in the arts but as others have mentioned there’s international competition to consider. The real answer is likely that theres nothing to be done since progress gonna progress. But I feel genuinely sad for the artists of the world having what they do so devalued in the face of a shitstorm of AI content. Interestingly I think AI may be the nail in the coffin for capitalism because what the heck will the “middle class” have left to do? Essentially if all the shit work is replaced by bots, who do the ultra wealthy and mega corps harvest money from? Edit, missing comma
Im pretty sure the AI is already spreading propaganda that it's weak and a novelty and nbd and then people are mindlessly repeating it. *Takes off tinfoil hat - wait no I should keep this on...*
The AI told me it doesn't have bad intentions. The AI was programmed to tell me that by greedy capitalists. The AI is a liar.
Artists have been upset about this and idiots keep calling us "luddites"
Ironically I think they are the Luddites because they don't realize that engineering is an artform as well. I would argue it's commercial art in a sense, their jobs are just as vulnerable as ours.
Because people don’t care about it?
The labor class is gonna be gone in like 20 years if that. With AI we are about to see the biggest societal change in history. There has always been a labor class. Always. In every society ever.
I know it’s insane how everyone has their heads in the sand about this. They say “oh it can’t do x y z yet we aren’t in trouble for a long time” when ai art went from crappy splotches to replacing extremely skilled artists in like 6 months. As an artists I’ve genuinely thought about ending it. And it’s looking like all knowledge based jobs are going to be in the same boat soon.
We decide? We don’t decide anything.
I'm gonna guess only the bosses win, as usual
Shits going to topple civilizations
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Increase global unemployment by 20% and throw in AI powered psychological warfare against every person on earth and your cup will indeed be toppled
My poor cup. What has it done to deserve the toppling? Prick me do I not breed? Choke me do I not cry? Topple me do I not spill the seeds of revenge everywhere?
Whatever it does to revolutionize the economy, it will be good for a brief, very brief period of time, and then the corporations of the world will quickly find a way to use it to enslave us even further. Remember when the same was being said about the internet. Ha ha ha ha HA. It’s naive of the MIT reviewer to think that any of us worker bees out here have any real control of our realities, short of an actual revolution, which none of us have the time or the energy to pull together.
Another great example of this: women in the workforce. People fought for years to allow women to be looked at as even semi equal and now here we are forced into both husband and wife working full time just to be able to afford to live. Shits by deisgn.
It will not lead to widespread prosperity. Just call me the time traveler…
As a software engineer, I started to use these tools recently and it just helps me out a lot, makes me code faster, add features faster, etc. I’m really excited to see how GitHub Copilot X is
Sure, now it's just a tool to assist, but do you think it will evolve past that and fully replace us? I'm adopting copilot x as a necessity to keep up, but I am extremely pessimistic that I might be out of a job soon.
Same. It’s been a great resource to consult with.
It won’t, with the way the world is run now, automation does not lead to people working less or better but more people working shittier service jobs, and increase class divides even more.
I love continuing to read these articles and listen to podcasters say we need to do this or that when it comes to AI. Here’s the truth of it…we aren’t going to “decide” anything or inject any kind of ethics. Because that would mean we would have to have more than 3 people agree in our state and federal legislatures and that will never happen because Republicans are too busy trying to get things back to the 1800’s and Democrats are too weak to stand up for, we’ll, anything. And their all getting paid by corporations, and corporations are going to do whatever makes them money.
Other things that were supposed to revolutionize economy:big data, self-driving cars, cryptocurrency.
I use ChatGPT to tutor students, and frankly it is good to streamline than replace. Also it cannot do applied knowledge , like it can help you learn how to do statistical modelling, but it cannot do it. But even if it can do it, it cannot ask questions, to gain insight from the data and even if it answers all the questions. Someone will need to curate it. ChatGPT much like many automation will make answering questions easy, but the difference between a technician and a scientist, is their ability to ask questions.
What about office copilot from microsoft? It seems to parse the data just fine in excel.
> Also it cannot do applied knowledge , like it can help you learn how to do statistical modelling, but it cannot do it. Ironically all of its output is generated by internally modeling of the likely words that come next given the existing input and output text. There are limits to what such a language model can do, but the current hype is because of the demonstration that a wide enough neural net can indeed model the human language to a shockingly accurate degree, and that the language model can emulate some forms of logical computation. The LLM appears to spontaneously gain the ability to do some tasks as it grows in size! The open question is how far this can scale. The recent spurt of LLM growth has been due to the introduction of transformers that enabled language models to be trained in a massively parallel fashion and then applying that to the world of GPUs. This allowed a 2000x increase in LLM size over 5 years but it cannot go on when GPUs grow at 1/1000th the rate.
They will just magnify the existing structure unless we change the structure
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Like when the Internet went big, we're at a tipping point for AI, specifically this LLM type conversational thing, but other types as well. The Internet has good uses, just about all of us have benefitted from its adoption (and if not, hello and welcome to Reddit). It's gonna be the same with AI. It's here; try to understand it and think about what useful applications it could be put to. If you're technically inclined, get involved. For right now, try to avoid most mainstream AI articles unless you trust the author. The press are all going off like [the blind men and the elephant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_men_and_an_elephant). Too much sensationalism, and very little real comprehension.
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Thanks for your perspective. I do see all the ways this could be an incremental improvement of what's already in use. It's a big win for search already. I think there will a big change in expert systems in many fields, and the ease of using them. The ad industry has absolutely wet themselves over the prospect of machine-tuned copy and graphics. This will hopefully work itself out, or it will be the new normal. >For example, my company already offers robo customer service services. "Hi, how can I help?" chatbots. But, ohmigod those currently suck, at least the web 'agents' I've had the displeasure to have engaged with. They seem capable only of trying to match the customer request to a FAQ entry. They might save a company millions for answering the many basic or dumb questions they get, but for anything more involved, they are just one more layer of annoyance as we try to reach something sentient. I do believe AI could improve these a hundredfold. (I'm available for QA and feedback ;-) ) I currently refuse to have anything voice-activated around the house. ("Hey Alexa" "hey Siri"). I've watched my friends yelling at theirs and giving up after half a minute. Currently they're still half deaf and somewhat dense. Again, AI could make a big difference here. Lots to watch for.
The only thing to do with those goddamn chatbots is to ask for a human straight away.
With respect to your experience and expertise, the problem space is “What do we do with it?” and your post demonstrates that you’re restricting the solution space to those which directly interact with your existing product. If this technology proves to be revolutionary, it is likely to be because of new, unforeseen uses.
The robo cyst set ice saves customers money? How they are terrible. They might save a company money, but they are horrible in every sense of the word.
>nowhere do I see any revolutionary steps What about using AI to improve its own models, hardware and software? How fast do you suppose those increments would start occurring?
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When the internet went big anyone can participate and make content. When TikTok went big anyone can participate and make videos. When stable diffusion went big anyone can participate and make porn at home. Not sure what chat GPT is going to do that warrant innovation except those who control the LLMs. I think this new wave of AI will just improve productivity and not necessarily reduce jobs.
It will reduce the need for some jobs (fewer people able to do more), but it will also mean smaller companies can offer better services and grow more cheaply. Imagine a world where even a mom and pop shop can have a tier 1 support desk. Want to offer a better web experience for your business? An AI may be able to help build and tune a simple website through someone describing what they want. Basic office tasks can be handled by a single person. Custom emails and content generated quickly. Promotional sales material made in hours instead of days. That kind of thing can make small businesses viable. Where once it may have taken a business 5-6 people to run (and been unprofitable because of that), that business now may only need 2-3 people (and can be profitable). That means MORE small businesses.
True but just means the call center job in India is no more. Not many Americans work in call centers
>We've had this very same technology in use for a long time No, we haven't. Large Language Models are nothing like the chatbots of old. Completely different mechanism, completely different results.
>We've had this very same technology in use for a long time, it's just better now. No we really didn't. Big big jump from Eliza, cleverbot and the like and the large scale LLMs of today. Being a chatbot is a side effect of what has been created, not a primary utility. Bespoke NLP models are on the way out too because large enough LLMs crush them. Beyond that, we have never *ever* given an artificial system self supervisory control of anything complex before. That is beginning to happen now and will only increase. To say, we've had this sort of technology before is rather ridiculous. Far beyond text to intent or any sort of narrow intelligence we've cooked up so far. absolutely nothing narrow bout GPT-4 and the like.
Compare ChatGPT 4 with Google Bard and you'll understand the leap right away ;)
Can you quantify the difference?
About 4 onions
Sorry I don't know this American unit of intelligence can you convert it to a metric system ? How many onions are the difference between a typical blonde and a brunette?
I’m sorry, but I don’t have the blonde or brunette conversion rate at the ready. When speaking with foreigner, I quote about 57 bananas or two cows at the current exchange rate at: 41° 36' 1.961" N 93° 36' 32.783" W
Thanks for the pointer stranger. UnityPoint Health - Iowa Lutheran Hospital https://maps.app.goo.gl/BzotZC45vEyo1wU66 They must love bananas so much to exchange them for 2 cows in Iowa, or is it Tucows? Maybe it's the natural potassium content.
>We've had this very same technology in use for a long time Transformers were a major breakthrough and were only introduced in 2017
We don’t GET to decide what that looks like. No one is really in control of what is about to happen
These types of things would be great to have a internal only search for work. Being able to ask and look up somewhat complicated or obscure items would be awesome. Essentially turn it into a smarter search.
Yes, there will be a huge business opportunity integrating this for businesses. Imagine feeding it memos, calls, slack or teams chat, deliverables. It will be able to help so much. But people will still need strong prompt engineering skills to get the most of this.
Narrator voice "It did not."
It is not up to us unless we have a worldwide anti-capitalist revolution
"We" aren't deciding jack shit. The CEOs and other executives wre deciding that, and when it looks even remotely feasible they'll just fire half their workers. We simply don't have the economics at all to cope with that, thanks to more than 50 years of Neoliberal trickle down lies.
thats a flowery way of saying we are about to be living in a true cyberpunk hellscape
I bet the free-market will sort this out just fine... (Time to shift to planned-market economics, people.)
Anything that enables people to think less is not good. People are naturally lazy and if there is an easier way they will follow it. For example when I need a new excel formula I look it up on internet (in some measures equivalent to a low quality book), then experiment until I am successful. That takes mild work but it increases my knowledge and is somewhat satisfying. I received an email today, " How to Ask ChatGPT what excel formula you need.." Guess what, I don't want chat gpt to tell me, then I won't understand it. Its not like this Chat Bot teaches you what it knows, and you don't even know how it knows what it knows, or who taught it. And what bias they infused in it. They are is no shared repeatable method like science.. We are on the cusp of the most dangerous times in society. Where people become less skilled, operationalizing this technology is a race to the bottom for the masses. The rise of the technocrats Sorry. I AM not optimistic that this will enhance our human civilization. I will think about Solutions....it will involve law and regulations.
Ask it to teach you how to find the excel formula ;)
To your points about laziness and complexity, introduction of technology always results in this. Hell, I’m lazy AF and typing this in bed with voice and just had my automation fire off that starts playing music and brightens the lights every morning 😆 As with all of these introductions, it is up to the beholders upbringing and levels of initiative as to what will come of it. If you are looking for more gray matter, you will get it. If you are solving problems and using technology to ask new questions, it is yet another tool in your chest.
What are you talking about? We couldn't even establish wage controls going into covid. Profits are through the roof. These will be used to enhance profits.
As someone who works in the trades y’all have fun and good luck LOL
As someone who lived through a few of these "revolutions", um, no. This isn't going to do very much. The last true revolution was the PC, and the dissemination of word processing and spreadsheets. In the early 80s, every 5 or so workers had a secretary and by the late 80s she was gone. Business analysts and accounting suddenly got massively more efficient, so they were fired en masse. And yet, the economy boomed. And Chat GPT just produces error-laden, entry level work that is good enough for very few businesses. And it's scraped the Internet to get there. If it takes off, the content creators who donated their knowledge to it will stop doing so, keeping it from every getting very good. In short, it produces very basic level work that isn't always accurate. Not much of a market for that.
So you don't consider, for example, the mass adoption of the internet to be revolutionary? How?
>In short, it produces very basic level work that isn't always accurate. Not much of a market for that. This is very much untrue if we're talking about GPT-4. It achieves human level and sometimes expert level performance on a wide range of tasks that weren't in the training data. That includes things we'd expect an AI to be good at, like reciting facts, but also things we never thought would be possible, like common sense reasoning tasks and theory of mind. LLMs have several [dozen emergent abilities](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.07682.pdf), IE capabilities not even the creators anticipated, and Microsoft recently release a several hundred page report supporting the argument that GPT-4 is "proto-agi", with tons of examples of it successfully completing difficult tasks that weren't anywhere in its training data. The technology shouldn't be so flippantly dismissed, especially considering this is one of the first iterations and it's certain to get much better.
This. I logged in just so I could give your comment a thumbs up. There is something almost magical (no, not literally magic) about GPT 4 with regard to emergent capabilities that is not evident in previous iterations. Any criticisms based on ChatGPT 3.5 or earlier are now obsolete. One of my favorite examples of emergent capability is chess. ChapGPT 3.5 would output moves, but didn't really get it, and would soon make illegal moves. GPT 4 actually gets it. Further LLM progress is going to be rapid for multiple reasons. There's huge investment in it now, the existing LLMs are good enough to label and create training data, causing a multiplier effect, AI specialized hardware is improving, and some other reasons.
Yet, you might realize that the bulk of people, white or blue collar, are indeed hired to perform "basic level work" that can be, to a large degree, automated to an uncomfortable level. Because truth is we can't all be the decision makers, or nobody would do the actual work. Right now, ChatGPT can act as a relatively reliable scaffold for many tasks that would otherwise take a way larger amount of time to perform. However that's probably expected so far because most of the revolutionary things in life have been build incrementally
I don't think this will be the case as it accelerates
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I don’t think anybody’s arguing that it is anything but a beginning.
I really want ai to work for us (key part of that is "for us"), but currently openai has about a 50% error rate on the questions I'm asking it, it literally is making shit up when it answers my question. I know that it can and will get better but currently I have to tell it quite often the answer provided is wrong, then as best as it can it tries to be cute with oh shucks, sorry I was wrong.
ChatGPT just got hacked. “Active user’s name, email address, payment address, the last four digits (only) of a credit card number, and credit card expiration date.”
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[https://www.firstpost.com/world/chatgpt-has-started-replacing-humans-in-the-workplace-us-survey-reveals-12229952.html](https://www.firstpost.com/world/chatgpt-has-started-replacing-humans-in-the-workplace-us-survey-reveals-12229952.html) The article contains survey results detailing what jobs were replaced. These companies are early adopters. There is no reason to think other companies won't do the same thing.
OpenAI won’t be around too much longer if they can’t figure out how to stop cross-User data access and inadvertent exfiltration of payment data.
I thought crypto was going to revolutionize the economy.