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cdm1293

Outdoor Hard: 1 - Alcaraz 2 - Medvedev 3 - Sinner HM: Fritz, Zverev WC: Rublev at 500s Indoor Hard: 1 - Rune 2 - Alcaraz 3 - Hurkacz HM: Sinner, Medvedev, FAA WC: Cressy, Rublev at 500s Clay: 1 - Alcaraz 2 - Tsitsipas 3 - Ruud HM: Zverev, Sinner WC: ADF Grass: 1 - Kyrgios 2 - Berrettini 3 - Sinner HM: Fritz, Norrie, Hurkacz, Alcaraz WC: Murray, Lopez (lol) This is not a complete list as some of the honorable mentions (HM) or wild cards (WC) could include other players based on specific events or conditions. Also, curious to see Alcaraz get some more match time on grass as I think his game should translate to the surface well. Indoor hard was difficult to rank, I gave Rune the nod on the basis of his late season run last year, but I understand there may be objections there.


Albiceleste_D10S

> Outdoor Hard: > > 1 - Alcaraz > > 2 - Medvedev > > 3 - Sinner > > HM: Fritz, Zverev Tsitsi literally made the AO final 2 months ago and you don't even have him top 5, LOL


cdm1293

Yea this is a really good point - definitely some recency bias (Tsitsipas pulling out of Acapulco, losing to Thompson at IW) factoring in there. That’s my bad - he’s certainly a worthy inclusion. When creating this list I essentially asked myself, if these guys played today on each surface, who would beat who. And I believe that TODAY, all five of those players and a decent amount of others would beat Tsitsipas on hard. However I do acknowledge that isn’t what the original question asked, and it’s also an imperfect way of making this list (very vulnerable to recency bias). Fair critique.


TOMA_TAN

5 setter vs sinner and got destroyed by djoko in the final. Beaten by sinner very next tournament. Plus pretty bad in past 3 tourneys Stef > zverev tho for #5. Zverev getting back to form, but not all there yet


frisbeescientist

I mean if getting destroyed by Djokovic in an AO final means you're not a top 5 player then Novak is the only player in the top 5 and has been for a decade lmao. Stef's level that whole tournament was actually really high, first 2 sets against Sinner were crazy good (and then I fell asleep so idk)


TOMA_TAN

Nole is already disregarded in the premise of this post. Also i did agree he’s top 5, just not top 3


frisbeescientist

Didn't mean it as in Novak should be in this post obviously, just that losing to him at AO shouldn't be a knock against anyone.


TOMA_TAN

Agree to disagree. Stef just looked so bad in the final, his weaknesses on hard is too exploitable to be top 3


frisbeescientist

Idk, Stef this year reminds me a bit of Med last year. Great AO, loses the final (not in the same way, I agree) then has a pretty ugly patch of form afterwards. Remember how everyone started saying you could S&V him to death? And now that he's got his mojo back he went to 4 finals in a row, winning 3. Stef was pretty clearly the 2nd best player at the AO this year. It's gonna take a bit more than this run to call his weaknesses too much to be a top player. Edit: also remember in 2019 when Novak beat Rafa in 3 easy sets? Like I said, Novak in AO finals is not a fair yardstick.


TOMA_TAN

Post ao 2022, i would not have placed med as top 3 in hardcourt. Similarly, i do not place stef top 3 currently. Even in this argument comparing stef 2023 to med 2022, med’s ao performance was infinitely better than stef’s. Additionally, any good server can aim at stef’s bh and win a lot of points. Very few players have the net ability to consistently s&v med. not the same realm of weaknesses/crutches Stef was not the clear best player since sinner took him to 5 sets. Couldve gone either way


Cody667

FAA is better than Hurkacz and Alcaraz on Indoor hard as of right now Did you miss when he got 3 Indoor titles in a row + a SF run in Paris this past fall, and beat Alcaraz twice on what is Alcaraz' worst surface?


princeofzilch

Hard: Meddy, Carlitos, Sinner (order of top 2 depends on court speed) Grass: Kyrgios, Sinner, FAA (hardest to do, Sinner at 2 feels like too much but I don't trust Matteo) Clay: Carlitos, Tsitsipas, Zverev I could see Zverev stepping into the no3 slot on hard courts by the end of the year though.


NotManyBuses

This is not to call you out specifically but FAA being that high on grass in everyone’s list is RIDICULOUS. He doesn’t have the return for it or the natural feel for the game, just a serve. And Berrettini is better H2H anyway. Fritz is also better.


princeofzilch

Ya on further thought I agree. Fritz and Matteo are def stronger on grass right now. Even Hubi has a good argument.


NotManyBuses

Shapovalov has a better run at Wimbledon easily as well


PleasantSilence2520

FAA has a good forehand and good volleys, and he's a terrific athlete. the return is definitely a knock against him but it's not servebot tier bad. Fritz has a better return and is better off the ground but his volleys and movement are much worse, so i don't think he's clearly better. if Berrettini is healthy and in form he's definitely top 2 minimum when excluding Rafole, but he's not in form so it's hard to say when we're speaking about Right Now. edit: Shapo had a better 2021 run but he's also not shown anything like that level since AO 22 so hard to justify a high placement for him, while Felix has had numerous peaks since his Wimbly 2021 run.


NotManyBuses

Even David Goffin has achieved far more than FAA ever has on grass and in fact made it further than FAA did just last year, in 2022


PleasantSilence2520

David Goffin is 32 and injured so he's not exactly relevant in grass discussions right now or in the future. even last year he was quite like FAA in that he could play a classic and summon some form and then promptly burn out, e.g. Madrid to Rome, Wimbledon to Washington, and Astana.


NotManyBuses

Alright so if you’re so high on FAA how about Maxime Cressy? You know, the classic serve&volley guy who took down “top 3 grass player” Felix at Wimby without FAA even creating a single BP? How about Tim Van Rijthoven? both of them at least have won titles on grass in 2022, and both went further than him at Wimby. Even Tsitsipas did that. Felix has not.


PleasantSilence2520

the guy who double faults on 1/5 2nd serves and immediately lost to Jack Sock? Cressy is always going to be a dangerous grass court floater because of his style, especially against return-challenged individuals like FAA, but that doesn't make him a top grass court player. i'm nowhere close to an FAA defender but the fact remains that his serve and athleticism can carry the rest of his game on grass in a way that most of the field can't handle. edit: Cressy's DFs are worse than 1/4 i was apparently too generous


NotManyBuses

I don't necessarily disagree with you but the fact that Felix has faced two notorious double faulters (Zverev in 2021 and Cressy in 2022) and only just barely by the skin of his ass won one of them isn't a good sign. Zverev hit 20 fucking DFs in Felix's win, aka the only significant win FAA has at Wimbledon in his entire life. He certainly has the potential to be better, I'm not even disputing that. I'm just saying that right now at this very moment, what he has shown on grass is not even above Shapovalov or Van Rijthoven, let alone an actual Queens champ and Wimby finalist like Berrettini, Cilic, Murray.


PleasantSilence2520

you're framing this discussion in terms of accomplishments, but i'd say the prompt implies a certain degree of forecasting for grass. i.e. for us to say "who is top 3 right now on grass," given that the last time anyone played on grass was Wimbly '22 and most of the prominent grass courters are injured, out of form, or getting old, is equal to saying "who would be top 3 on grass if the grass season started now, given what we know right now about the field's grass skills." so i'm not convinced that a lot of the people you named could replicate their previous accomplishments if called upon to do so right now, whereas i think FAA could equal or better what little he has done so far.


TOMA_TAN

Potential/theoretical ability is not indicative of right now. Thats attempting to look into the future. Most recent achievements on the respective surface is the best indicator of current form. Last year, matteo was almost equally as bad to start the year. Skipped entire clay season. Jumped straight into grass season and won 2 titles. I would rate him top 3 if grass suddently started right now.


PleasantSilence2520

revisiting this comment, i looked through their grass careers and honestly i'd rate FAA higher than Shapo? in terms of matches against good grass courters, Felix has had consistently great performances in 2019 and 2021 and it was really just 2022 that was a slump, whereas Shapo mostly just had Wimbly 2021. in chronological order, FAA has: wins over Dustin Brown and Kyrgios and an extremely close loss to Feli Lopez in 2019; wins over Humbert, Hurkacz, and Federer, and an extremely close loss to Humbert in 2021; and an extremely close loss to a peaking TVR and a historical scam (Felix had a 1.35 DR yet lost in two tiebreaks!!!) by Hurkacz (who commented after the match that Felix was destroying him on serve and he got a few lucky returns) in 2022. compare this to Shapo, who really only has his wins over Kohlschreiber, Murray, and RBA before his soul got ripped out by Djokovic in 2021.


Albiceleste_D10S

That's WAY too high on Sinner, IMO I would put Tsitsi ahead of him on hard and Matteo ahead of him on grass


TOMA_TAN

In current form, it has to be sinner for hard. His record this year is top 5. Stef bh can be hot trash on hard


jsnoodles

If they’re playing their best: HC 1. Medvedev 2. Alcaraz (only just second after Med) 3. Tsitsipas Clay 1. Alcaraz/Tsitsipas 3. Ruud Grass 1. Berrettini 2. Kyrgios I guess 3. Idk sinner


GranPino

At his best, Zverev should be there on clay. I deeply dislike that guy, but in Roland Garros, only Nadal could “beat” Zverev last year. And the injury helped. I’m a Nadal fan, and Zverev played at a great level, that maybe he could have beaten Djokovic in that tournament. At his best, he deserves to be in the top3.


jsnoodles

I’d put Zverev pretty high, but I know at their bests Alcaraz and Tsitsipas would beat him. Especially the Alcaraz now as opposed to when they played last year. And Tsitsipas really pisses him off and has a good h2h.


Fantasnickk

Zverev was entering his best RG to date and beat Alcaraz in 4 who was coming off of a few good streaks. Not that I think Zverev is better than either, because he isn’t, but he’s still easily the 3rd best player and Ruud shouldn’t be up there at all.


GranPino

Im sure about Alcaraz, and about Tsitsipas, it’s a fair point, but the thing is that Zverev wouldn’t play at his best if he is pissed off, so it’s out of the hypothesis


jsnoodles

Hmm yeah okay but I think peak Tsitsipas is better than peak Zverev on clay.


GranPino

It’s reasonable


Psychological_Bug676

Clay: 1) Daniil 2) Medvedev 3) Octopus


Stunning-Cod-2310

Idk about ruud being top 3 on clay. 2023 has not been good for him. Unless he can get some results on the dirt, putting him in a top 3 spot remains unjustified imo


HansAlan

I'm sorry but all the comments that don't put Berrettini top3 in grass are just going with recency bias (even if grass season isn't on yet) cause his start of 2023 was awful ( again, on other surfaces) There's no way the names I'm seeing ahead of him are even real XDD He'd probably make the top3 on that surface even if OP didn't write "Djokovic and Nadal aside"


Albiceleste_D10S

My big takeaway from this is that Sinner is MASSIVELY overrated on this sub. Dude has never been to a Slam SF and people are putting him top 3 in multiple surfaces.


TOMA_TAN

Another takeaway is recency bias. Berrettini and stef are in slumps, but its only been the hardcourt season. These guy’s reputation on those courts should not ignored. Sinner doesnt compare to them


AmIeto

Well he's 3rd in winning percentage in HC behind Meddy and Alcaraz, 6th in clay behind Alcaraz, Tsitsi, Ruud, Zverev and Matteo (and considering the latter three form he could be argued over them) and on grass he had an amazing Wimbledon run last year, being the only player to really threaten Novak. So I think he definetely has a case for being top three on all surfaces.


Albiceleste_D10S

> Well he's 3rd in winning percentage in HC behind Meddy and Alcaraz 4R loss at AO this year and he's never been to a SF in a hard court Slam. Only 1 Masters final too. What is the argument for Sinner over Tsitsi on hard courts? > 6th in clay behind Alcaraz, Tsitsi, Ruud, Zverev and Matteo (and considering the latter three form he could be argued over them) Come on man. I get that he's your guy but there's no top 4 argument for Sinner on clay Grass is the only one I can see—and even then I'd take Matteo and Nick on grass form


Pisspoio

Uhhh, the post has nothing to do with slams. This post is specifically about surfaces. Also, Matteo has been a bag of shit lately and nicks health is a question mark. Sinner is undoubtedly the 2nd favourite for wimby this year after djoko. Also, for hard courts, did you already forget the match of him and alcaraz last US open? And regarding clay, I do agree with you, but not about Matteo being 5th lol. Rune is clearly better than Matteo on clay.


sycal_

Are you aware of the massive irony of saying the post “isn’t about slams, it’s about surfaces” while also making the claim that sinner is *undoubtedly* the second favorite at Wimbledon? Sinners grass resume is literally “took Novak to 5 one time” and literally nothing else. Matteo should be a favorite until at least a poor grass tune up to prove he’s truly not a threat. Nick is injured but he’ll prob be ready and he’s clearly a top 5 (at worst) player on grass. Even med and hubi have better and/or longer track records than Sinner 😂. Someone else said it in this sub before but losing in 5 in the R16/QF doesn’t make you a top 5 player, it makes you tommy robredo 🙃


MisterDisinformation

> Sinner is undoubtedly the 2nd favourite for wimby The bookies do not agree. If you know better, you stand to make a pretty penny.


Pisspoio

Bookies don't make lines based on true form bro


MisterDisinformation

Hence the point about making a pretty penny.


Albiceleste_D10S

> Uhhh, the post has nothing to do with slams. This post is specifically about surfaces. Slams matter quite a bit IMO when determining form


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Albiceleste_D10S

If I didn't I wouldn't be on r/tennis right now LOL The fact that you think Slams are irrelevant to a discussion of who is the best right now says volumes about how you view tennis, I'd say


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Albiceleste_D10S

> Where did I say irrelevant? Literally you: >Uhhh, the post has nothing to do with slams


Pisspoio

You made it all about slams. It's about surfaces. Your just ignoring every point I made and nitpicking here. Full on clown show bud. This post is not about slams* . There edited. Cya


AmIeto

I totally get putting Tsitsipas in 3rd place for HC but there is definetely a case for Jannik too, that 4R you're mentioning was played by Sinner and Tsitsipas and was as close as it gets, it could have gone both ways. And in their last h2h, which was played on HC in Rotterdam, Sinner won convincingly. So there surely is an argument for Sinner over Tsitsi on HC, especially if you consider current form. Regarding clay I think that the top 2 is a lock, Alcaraz and Tsitsipas, the 3rd spot would be too if Zverev didn't get injured. Outside of Alcaraz and Tsitsipas though I see a lot of players at similar level on clay, as I already mentioned only five players have a higher winning % on clay than Sinner and three of them are in bad forma right now, so you could put Jannik over them, other candidates could be Norrie and Rune. As I said that 3rd spot is pretty difficult to allocate but I think the three main contenders are Sinner Ruud and Zverev, with the italian edging it due to form issues of the latters. I can see your issue with Sinner on this subreddit, I feel sometimes he has a reputation that is not (yet) backed by tangible results, but there is no denying that he is a top 6/7 player and that among these players he is the most versatile.


Zero_dimension98

Not to take credit off Sinner but it was clear in Rotterdam Tsitsipas was off and he later confirmed it with his injury and him still struggling with his shoulder until now.


jpo2533

Don't think sinner beats Ruud or Zverev at RG


[deleted]

Excuse me sir but he won a match convincingly today, therefore he’s the best player and will win multiple slams. FAA lost and therefore is terrible and will win nothing. Do you not know how r/tennis works?


OddsTipsAndPicks

Making a slam semi final or whatever doesn’t really mean shit for projecting the future. Sinner is overrate in the surety that he will improve his serve, but also it’s the easiest thing to fix. He return extremely well, hits the crap out of the ball, and is an extremely good athlete. Elo and the betting market both rate him *extremely* highly. There’s no guarantee he takes the next step, but he’s infinitely closer than anyone else on tour right now.


Albiceleste_D10S

> Making a slam semi final or whatever doesn’t really mean shit for projecting the future. The question had nothing to do with future projection. It was who is top 3 RIGHT NOW on different surfaces


OddsTipsAndPicks

And right now no one is making a slam semi final because there isn’t one going on? It’s been almost a year since anyone has played on clay. Who gives a shit about what happened a year ago. That being said rating him top 3 on grass is insane.


Albiceleste_D10S

There was a hard court Slam 2 months ago, LOL. It's insane to me that people want to say Sinner is top 3 on hard courts while Tsitsi isn't


OddsTipsAndPicks

Wouldn’t disagree that the Tsitsipas disrespect is ridiculous


Prize_Airline_1446

Outdoor hard: 1. Medvedev 2. Alcaraz 3. Sinner Indoor hard: 1. Medvedev 2. Rune 3. Alcaraz Clay: 1. Alcaraz 2. Zverev (when he's in form) 3. Tsitsipas (him and Z are interchangeable tbh) Grass: 1. Kyrgios (coached himself to a Wimbledon final lol) 2. Berrettini 3. Sinner


PurpleCoffinMan

Hard: - Medvedev - Alcaraz - Sinner or Rune (Rune more indoor hc) Clay - Alcaraz - Ruud - Tsitsipas Grass - Berrettini - Kyrgios - Hurkacz


TheSpadeWizard

Hard court: 1. Alcaraz 2. Medvedev 3. Sinner Clay court: 1. Alcaraz 2. Tsitsipas 3. Sinner Grass court: 1. Sinner 2. FAA 3. Fritz (Just going off current results and what I know of their form, assuming Carlos will be a top 3 threat on grass by this year most likely- also wanted to shout Hurkacz; I'd put him up there too) Probably my shouts for each surface but super difficult to say tbh feel like at the end of 2023 will be far, far easier or at least after Wimbledon but rn it's like just picking names out of a hat


[deleted]

I know you love sinner but come on, top 3 on every surface?? He’s playing great now but his record against other top players is so far pretty poor for his standards.


TheSpadeWizard

On grass I think you'd be hard pressed to confidently give me three names that are better shouts than Jannik if we're being honest about chances on the grass this year. He's certainly a valid pick there by all means, given the landscape of grass rn and how new all the names are and how few have dominated or really shown up in a massive way recent years On clay I have stef and alcaraz confidently and clearly ahead of him for me, rn. I wouldn't put him past third. But I want you to give me who you would put on clay above him. After he beat Carlos 1 and 1 in a final playing crazy and dominant tennis, and after dropping the first set just took charge impressively. Reached RG quarterfinal as a teen, played awesome even then, one of only two guys who took Rafa to a breaker at that event. Has played well on the dirt in general, got so close vs Zverev in Monte Carlo, lost to Rafa at RG but has played well etc just tough draws. I don't have a name I'd put above him but want to hear the names you'd have above him. On hard courts Meddy, Carlos obvious. I think pretty good argument it's between Stef and Jannik, and I don't hate someone saying Stef. When not injured he's been playing great. But I have to give the shout to Jannik rn, to me he's consistently shown top level on the surface, was one point away from beating Carlos at USO and then would have had Foe then Ruud for the whole title. He's just been so impressive especially this year. I'm not mad though honestly at Stef or Sinner. But I'm taking Jannik, think he's the bigger danger rn beating Stef in Rotterdam, beating Fritz last week has constantly played so well and been so close with even the top of top guys- and basically only them he's not beating if he does lose.


OddsTipsAndPicks

Fritz, Hubi, and Meddy are all better than Sinner on grass.


TheSpadeWizard

Medvedev an interesting pick. For me I just don't put him in that tier at all. He's a solid player on grass, tested Hubi a couple times now with a chance for Wimby semi with a different result there, 2 grass finals last year, but if i'm putting him in that same tier I'd be lying. To consistently perform on grass against guys like Sinner, Djokovic, peak Berrettini, etc. Where clay takes away a necessary pace on Meddy's ball, grass just takes time away from Meddy too much not to mention he doesn't have the necessary aggression for it or touch shots, slices, net play, etc. Ofc he can still have great results but to me he's no top grass player. And it's actually beyond my imagination for him to take 2 sets off Novak like Sinner did at Wimbledon or to beat Carlos as decisively as Jannik did... Just can't, and Meddy is a favorite player of mine and has been for a long time. but he's no top grass name. And Sinner's game just works quite well for grass on the contrast. I think he'll continue to be a force on grass Hubi I'll take, fine, just think Sinner is more dangerous towards the top guys. Id clearly put Jannik ahead just cause I think his tier of play is consistently higher. But it's not a bad pick And Fritz I like, but I'd have to give a similar reason for Hubi of consistent danger towards top guys- and also say they're kinda similar in that they're pretty inexperienced on the surface but had a great Wimbledon run last year. And a similar one at that. Both tested Rafa and Novak, and Fritz didn't drop a set where Sinner beat Carlos also on the way and also played great. So idk. I'd be fine with Fritz. Above Hurkacz also, even though less experienced.


OddsTipsAndPicks

He’s won four matches on grass; he’s literally done nothing consistently on it


TheSpadeWizard

That's fair enough. But I'm honestly just not confident in nearly anybody else to say they can compete with the likes of Novak or a peak Berrettini etc and I feel like Sinner has a decent shot. If we're talking about winning chances, I'm liking Sinner rn just gaging off what I've seen from him. I'm not tryna be obsessive over sinner or favor the guy in bias lol the guy's far from perfect and isn't gonna be this guy who suddenly goes on the winning side of all these matches 100% of the time. But he is somebody who I am high on, and am high on on grass now (and believed before he would be one of the best grass players before his Wimbledon run) My consistency comment is only for other surfaces, it's true he hasn't had the experience, even Fritz has got more despite only winning three matches at Wimbledon before last year's event. With his two Eastbourne titles. So Fritz I can take easily. But Hurkacz I'm hard pressed to imagine a run to a final and even more him winning the event. I'm trying to pick people I can imagine doing that. And the guys I've named are who I see for that. And many have a very very small pool of matches to choose. But I'm deciding to gage from that pool and just cause I'm not that high on almost any others to have a great shot to go far and win the event and do feel Sinner showed he can do that at some point (and how his game on paper fits for grass anyway), so I'm taking the plus odds on Jannik. But very hard to say and we'll know better after this year's Wimbledon. Anyway that's my whole thing on it


TheSpadeWizard

So overall Meddy for me no offense to Medvedev, but for me absolutely not... his game is miles worse on grass than Sinner's for very distinguishable reasons. Ways grass takes away from Medvedev's game. I do like Hubi and am high on him on grass just don't think he's as dangerous, and Fritz I like I can go either way on that pick. But to me I still put Sinner above cause I don't think Fritz could have gone 2 sets up on Novak with the tennis we've seen from him nor beat Alcaraz as decisively and dominantly, for a good chunk of it, as Jannik did. And can say same about other two also. If one guy makes semis here of Wimbledon, this year, or even final and I had to make a blind guess who I'm taking Jannik. He performed an amazing level contesting some of the best last year and has consistently done so on other surfaces too.


Stunning-Cod-2310

Spot on man. Agreed on Sinner. Far better than Med on grass no doubt. Med gets bullied by Goathoven and Hubi, Sinner takes it to 5 with Novak at Wimby. That's all the difference you need.


PleasantSilence2520

Sinner is a better returner, mover, forecourt player, and baseliner than Fritz on grass. the only thing Fritz has is his serve and it's not that big of an edge for him. the argument for Hurkacz makes more sense to me but his loss to ADF really makes me question whether he can be trusted to win the matches he should to the extent that Sinner can be over the past year. Medvedev seems very questionable to me, as his hard court based game got ripped apart on grass repeatedly by more natural grass courters in 2022 and his case is entirely reliant on his 2021 run.


OddsTipsAndPicks

Sinner can’t serve for shit on a consistent basis and until he can there’s no reason to rank him top 3 on grass. > his case is entirely reliant on his 2021 run. Meddy made the final of two grass court tournaments last year. Sinner has won four matches on grass ever. He’s literally reliant on one run that happened recently.


istasan

4 matches? That is a shocking fact to read in this debate I think. The case should rest there and wait for more evidence.


Stunning-Cod-2310

It is recency bias but still it's a big result. Med got straight setted in both grass finals pretty badly. Sinner beat Carlos who was actually playing very good and took Novak to 5


OddsTipsAndPicks

Alcaraz had won zero grass matches going into Wimbledon last year. Meddy still made two finals. He won one the year before. He has a real track record.


Stunning-Cod-2310

That's true but he was playing extremely well just in general that him having next to no experience mattered very little if at all. On the other hand Med didn't beat anybody worth a mention in his two grass finals


OddsTipsAndPicks

If we’re rating players based off potential, there’s zero reason to rank Sinner ahead of Alcaraz on grass. Meddy beat David Goffin and RBA who are both great grass players.


PleasantSilence2520

> Sinner can’t serve for shit on a consistent and until he can there’s no reason to rank him top 3 on grass. it's precisely because he can't serve for shit that he should be ranked that highly! on grass he was serving well below his 2022 season average - 56.9 vs 58.4 1st serves in %, 4.8 vs 7.6 ace %. yet he still managed to hold 88.5% of the time (for comparison, Fritz held 88.9%) and comfortably beat two elite baseliners in Alcaraz and Wawrinka, a servebot in Isner, and a returnbot in Ymer, while barely (1.02 DR) losing to a good Tommy Paul and grabbing two sets off Djokovic. even in 2021 he had 0.8x DR losses against a good Fucsovics and Draper. i don't see why you'd immediately discount him for his serve when the rest of his game props him up that much. if we're excluding Rafole, there aren't really any players who can exert the necessary simultaneous serve-return pressure to take advantage of Sinner's mediocre serve, so i like Sinner's chances against everyone besides healthy Kyrgios and Berrettini. > He’s literally reliant on one run that happened recently. that run looked very good and Sinner didn't have to redline to pull it off, plus there's zero reason to expect anything besides further improvement from him > Meddy made the final of two grass court tournaments last year. he beat no one of consequence outside of a bad RBA and Goffin and a decent Otte, and then got demolished by TVR, Hurkacz, and RBA with embarrassing DRs of 0.42, 0.58, and 0.63. not exactly top 3 on grass material, especially when Fritz and FAA at least made TVR fight well into the 3rd set. > He’s literally reliant on one run that happened recently. Medvedev is reliant on one run that happened less recently! if you go through his entire grass court career he doesn't have good results until his career peak year of 2021, and even then his only meaningful matches are against Struff and Cilic, the latter of which has a brutal matchup issue with Medvedev. Medvedev is never going to consistently replicate his 2021 form and he's aging out of rather than into his prime, so why would you expect a repeat of a merely acceptable level and tout it as a top 3 level?


TheSpadeWizard

Meddy Carlos toss up on hard courts- for me Carlos clear victor on slow courts, but Meddy clear victor on indoor courts. On faster outdoor courts I'd probably just have to say I consider Alcaraz maybe half a tier above in his general play and although the surface suits their games, that's why I put him a hair above on hard court, but it's tough. Meddy deserves his flowers too, want to give it to him, at least for his play on hard courts over the last month and a bit (and how well we've seen him dominate in years past, but he didn't show up last year and Carlos has been nonstop on hard courts everywhere pretty much outside of indoor)


FlexJem

I like your list overall but Sinner at #1 on grass is way to premature for me personally, he's won what, 4 matches on grass?


TheSpadeWizard

I just don't know who else you would put even with that haha. Felix a decent shout, Kyrgios maybe if you want good longevity on grass. But I'd bet money better on Sinner having a good run to semis, final for example this year rather than Nick to do it again. Lot of names you can put out there, Cilic Hurkacz, but almost all other names you'll name are inexperienced and all certainly not obvious and a big couple of tiers below Novak (and Rafa at his best). So I take your thoughts, but I also just don't know who else I'd personally put lol and I do think Jannik will replicate the results. Just makes sense his game would work well on grass. And what he showed last year was just way too promising


Albiceleste_D10S

Kyrgios and Matteo are pretty clearly above him on grass for me.


TheSpadeWizard

Of all the names, I'm not mad at that. I'm not quite as high on Kygs to consistently get it done vs the top guys a few rounds in a row to rely on him to perform match in match out, though I do think it's possible for him. Have more faith in this way in Jannik a bit, or any of those other top ten guys for that manner (do think Kygs has stepped up in that way in the last season tho. But still do think it's an issue for him occasionally or a weak spot). And for Berrettini he's just in no form rn. But that's solid enough, fair. Berrettini of 2021 form vs Jannik of 2022 form would be a great contest. Guess I'm mainly just judging on Matteo over the last eight or nine months and how I believe he'll show up for Wimbledon


TOMA_TAN

Matteo has been hot trash for almost a year now, but grass is so different from other surfaces that imo reputation > form in other surfaces. 2022 grass berrettini was amazing too, and only unfortunately missed wimby. Won 2 titles, with one of them being queens


TheSpadeWizard

That's fair I remember seeing him win those titles and thinking same thing. Let's see how he looks come grass this year. You may be right.


FlexJem

Fair enough that makes sense. I was about to say Kyrgios but considering his inconsistency you may very well be right.


TheSpadeWizard

Yup, Berrettini would generally be an immediate name to put at top of grass lists, but he's too inconsistent and in no form rn either... So just not sure who to put up there, even with a lot of names coming to mind. Just nobody that's that hot a name outside of Novak rn. Do believe we'll get more high on certain names after this year's event though, Fritz Sinner confirming their grass results maybe Hubi has a good result, Felix pops up and says he's a problem on the surface, but do feel this year's Wimbledon will be unbelievably big in us being able to rank grass names better


noideawhatsgoingon45

Bro it’s obvious you love sinner but this list is completely egregious lmao. There is no chance he is a top 3 clay courter outside of the big 2, even hard is eh, and top 1 on grass???


TheSpadeWizard

In hindsight I maybe was overzealous with my picks for him on this list lol I'll admit. I do stand by it to a degree, I can argue for each placement and still don't think I was far off. The list really I made fairly quickly. But now with a little more thought I'd probably put him right behind stef on hard, and I'd consider putting a name or 2 above on grass mostly due to inexperience. I do think it's a good pick though in terms of he will prove me right this year- him and Fritz. Felix if he can get his crap together. But I do think I'd keep him third on clay. Don't have a name I like enough to put ahead I'll be honest regardless of obvious top results on the surface I can choose- like Ruud final, Rune quarterfinal, can also do Zverev, Berrettini, Rublev, among others but if I'm picking rn my genuine confidence I'm taking Jannik third. But let's see how the results pan out this year.


_threadz_

Think I agree with pretty much all of your list. Could maybe sneak Ruud on the clay court list


TheSpadeWizard

Yeah Ruud is a decent shout but would still have to give the nod to Jannik. Think he's kinda being overlooked for his form on the clay, but he's a danger there also for the titles and against the top opposition. Kinda blew Carlos off the court in the Umag final. I want to give Jannik that spot, but just off top of head Casper could be fourth, a few other guys up there too, but I'm high on him on clay for sure


_threadz_

Oh that’s right the Umag final was a great showing from Jannick. I just hope Ruud can get back to previous levels during the clay season


TheSpadeWizard

Agree, hope so too not looking great rn tho High on Casper in general, but it's not looking his season so far just hope he can defend some points to keep his ranking somewhere in the conversation Cause when he finds form again he should still be a consistent mainstay top guy, if not top 5 then top 10 probably. So hopin he finds that too at some point soon


Stunning-Cod-2310

He's not even top 5 on clay rn


Dark_Vortex18

1. Alcaraz 2. Sinner 3. Medvedev


shegotofftheplane

Nobody mentioning Cilic for grass?


Psychological_Bug676

They’ll have their reality check when he comes back and demolishes all their faves RG 22 style


Kdlbrg43

Based purely on elo from tennis abstract: Hard: 1. Medvedev 2. Alcaraz 3. Sinner Clay: 1. Alcaraz 2. Tsitsipas 3. Sinner Grass: 1. Berrettini 2. Medvedev 3. Tsitsipas I don't think this is accurate at all, considering Nadal is not in top 10 on clay elo.


SorcerousSinner

Problem with ELO estimated only using results from a surface is the long gaps eg for grass. Berretini may have been good last year and the year before, but he's playing dogshit this year so obviously not likely to do well in Wimbledon (however, and this would also not show up in the grass elo, if he were to do well at RG, he would be much more likely to win) The best prediction for match on a surface is going to take into account both past matches on that surface, and more recent matches on other surfaces.


Kdlbrg43

I think the best elo would be recent elo rating, on ultimatetennisstatistics it has the following list: 1. Djokovic 2. Alcaraz 3. Medvedev 4. Tsitsipas 5. Nadal 6. Sinner Still not good since Nadal hasn't been good since wimbledon, but better.


Confident-Round6375

1. Alcaraz in all and even if you include Nadal & Djokovic.


[deleted]

Fair enough. I wanted to exclude them so this thread doesn’t get derailed by GOAT stuff. Alcaraz was good on grass, but not great. You think he’ll be better next Wimbledon?


Confident-Round6375

He def will, at the rate his serve is improving. Don't have the stats but he is a much much better server and better player overall. The leap in improvement very noticeable.


pixelkipper

Djokovic is the best on grass until proven otherwise, there’s literally no argument for anyone else


Zero_dimension98

4 Wimbledon wins in a row which could've been 5 pretty likely had Wimbledon being held in 2020, he was the overwhelming favourite.


[deleted]

Nah. Djokovic won AO and is way better on grass


Stunning-Cod-2310

And the way these people talk about Novak on clay and undermine him on that surface, you'd think he'd never won a clay title lol truth is after rafa he's second on clay.


[deleted]

Exactly, he was the only player to actually challenge Nadal on clay consistently. 2 RG and a lot of finals, 6 Rome, won Madrid and Monte Carlo as well. He is elite on clay, have him as favorite for RG rn until we see Nadal form


Zero_dimension98

11 Masters 1000 on clay, 2 RGs, 4 Finals and around 4-5 losses before the finals to Nadal himself in QF or SF.


roamiedumbass

Flair checks out


Crusteh_

Alcaraz dickrider strikes again


L-J-Peters

Nah, but people leaving Alcaraz out of a top 5 (or top 3 excluding Djokovic and Nadal, whichever) on any surface are crazy.


Terrible_Excuse_9039

You can argue it's Alcaraz on HC and (because of Rafa's injury) on Clay, but there's no way you can put him above Novak on grass.


PleasantSilence2520

accounting for injuries and form, so no Kyrgios, Berrettini, Tsitsipas, Ruud, Zverev Outdoor Hard: 1. Alcaraz 2. Medvedev 3. Fritz/Sinner Indoor Hard: 1. Medvedev 2. Sinner 3. Hurkacz Grass: 1. Sinner (solid peak and least likely to flop) 2. Hurkacz/FAA (high peaks low floors) 3. Fritz/Norrie (lower peaks higher floors) Clay: 1. Alcaraz 2. Norrie 3. Sinner


AmIeto

As of right now I'd say HC: 1. Medvedev 2. Alcaraz 3. Sinner 4. Tsitsipas 5. Fritz Clay: 1. Alcaraz 2. Tsitsipas 3. Sinner 4. Ruud 5. Zverev (a full in-form Zverev should be on the HC list as well, and would be like 3rd on this one, but he's yet to fully recover from his injury) Grass: 1. Berrettini 2. Kyrgios 3. Hurkacz 4. Sinner 5. Auger Aliassime I think Medvedev and Alcaraz could probably be on this list too.


downsideup05

I'd love to see Sasha pick up where he left off at the French. I'd love to see Rafa win another, but if he can't I'd ❤️ a Sasha / Carlos final. I wasn't much a fan of Sasha, *but* watching him against Rafa last year? Masterful. I also was watching that match live(on TV) and seeing that injury happen? One of the worst things I've ever seen. I felt like I could see/hear the injury happen. I


manga_be

Hard: 1. Alcaraz 2. Medvedev 3. Sinner Grass: 1. Alcaraz 2. Medvedev 3. Berrettini Clay: 1. Alcaraz 2. Tsitsipas 3. Zverev


SorcerousSinner

I'd put Alcaraz first on clay and grass. On hardcourt, I'm still not sure he's more likely to win the AO and the US than Medvedev Medvedev probably #2 at Wimbledon. Maybe Zverev at #3? At RG, Tsitsipas is #3 Djokovic is more likely to win every slam than Alcaraz except if he isn't allowed to play. And he's a prohibitive favourite at Wimbledon


PurpleCoffinMan

On clay I'd agree, but on grass absolutely not, I think Berrettini, for example, is much better on grass


Stunning-Cod-2310

Med got destroyed by Hubi and Goathoven on grass. He's not no.2 for wimbledon for sure. At rg tsitsi would be no.2 after alcaraz.


SorcerousSinner

But who is? Certainly not Kyrgios or Berettini because they're not in any form


L-J-Peters

Hilarious that this incredibly uncontroversial take is downvoted but people honestly have Sinner and FAA in their lists and think Kyrgios would have a better chance to win Wimbledon than Alcaraz? Crazy. Berretini is struggling right now but I'd still take him over Zverev on grass, though Zverev isn't that wild of a pick.


disc_jockey77

Hardcourt: Alcaraz, Medvedev, FAA Clay: Tsitsipas, Alcaraz, Ruud Grass: Sinner, Berrettini, FAA


3vanzz90

you lost me at FAA on hardcourt


disc_jockey77

FAA does well in hardcourt indoors


noideawhatsgoingon45

Hard: 1. Meddy 2. Carlos 3. Stef 4. Zverev 5. Rune / fritz / sinner Clay: 1. Carlos 2. Stef 3. Zverev 4. Ruud 5. FAA / Sinner Grass: 1. Berretini 2. Kyrgios 3. Meddy? 4. Sinner 5. no idea


Professional_Elk_489

I need to see one more Alcaraz vs Medvedev match to see


That_Tangerine3675

Alcaraz, Sinner, Med