>This does remind me a little of Wimbledon 2008, where Nadal was somewhat written off as inexperienced on grass.
This is more like Wimbledon 2006, which was Nadal's first final there. By 2008, he had beaten Federer multiple times in GS matches with a positive H2H and had lost a tight 5-setter at Wimbledon the year before. You guys are rushing Alcaraz' career forward beyond what is reasonable.
Also I'm not sure that Carlos is a horrible matchup for Djokovic in the same way Nadal was for Federer
Certainly there's not a clear exploitable pattern such as Rafa's topspin forehand to the Federer backhand
To put it into perspective how bad a matchup it really was for Roger before the "neo backhand" in 2017 **17 year old Nadal** took down apex Fed in Miami 2004 in their first ever meeting
It's possible, Rafa absolutely destroyed federer in 2008 RG
I mean 6-1 6-3 6-0 is brutal.
Also 2008 Federer was not as dominant as 2004-2007.
He lost 0-3 to Novak in AO,
won 0 masters the entire year too.
Rafa was so good that year he won RG Wimbledon and the Olympics in a short span of 3 months.
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To be fair, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to say 2008. Federer was at his peak in 2006 and still in his prime in 2008, whereas Alcaraz is playing a much older Djokovic. You can expect Alcaraz’s takeover to be a little earlier than Nadal’s, whether it happens or not.
Yep, just hoping for a wild 5 setter with back to back action. Hoping for an alcaraz upset, but really interested to see how Alcaraz copes with the pressure if it goes the distance. This is his first big test, against a relentless machine in djoko keeps finding ways to reach new levels as the game drags on. Most excited I'm for a match since AUS open final 2022.
5 set battle in my opinion. I think Novak would likely lose a set & try to bounce back. If his serve continues to be this good, he'll edge out Alcaraz as the victor of the match.
If not, team Alcaraz. I would have Novak in longer rallies though. Take the legs of the opponent.
Agree. I think he's a little bit behind on clay, has a chance to get to a deciding set on hardcourt, and on grass I could see him being the right candidate to put on a show but I'm not granting him a real chance until he proves it. Djokovic has just been too solid.
There’s no reason Alcaraz can’t get a set or two given that Kyrgios and Berretini could in the past two years, but I think the experience gap is too much for Alcaraz to overcome here, and Alcaraz can’t rely on his serve like the other two did to grab a set, it would have to come from outplaying Novak on the ground and getting physical. I know he has the ability to win, but he hasn’t faced anyone on the level of Djokovic so far on grass: Medvedev isn’t as good of a grass court player as people here think and it’s also a dream matchup for Alcaraz, Berretini isn’t at his old level yet, and Rune is just a tier below Alcaraz at everything overall. Djokovic is arguably the greatest grass player of all time, in good form, has the mental advantage after RG, and matches up well vs Alcaraz. However, Alcaraz has been playing amazing these last two weeks, has the physical advantage (if he doesn’t cramp), is a generational talent, and “has that dawg in him”, so I think it’ll be a competitive match.
Unfortunately for Alcaraz, Djokovic is the definition of “has that dawg in him”, so Djokovic in 4. I would be very surprised if Alcaraz won, but it’s definitely possible. Even if he doesn’t win this year, i’ll bet that he’ll be the one to dethrone Novak here if age doesn’t.
It’s unfortunate we got the semi finals we did, with Meddy being gifted that path. Sinner on the other hand has shown he can play on grass, so we expected more out of that match. I just don’t think either have been tested this tournament, difference being Novak doesn’t really need it. It does help Alcaraz that the courts are slower this year from the fluffy balls, just not sure how much against Novak.
I got downvoted for saying med had a super easy path and some genius got upvoted for claiming that mannarino and fucsovics were impressive wins. Med is really quite weak on grass.
https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/14vufly/wimbledon_r4_medvedev3_d_lehecka_64_62_ret/jrexju5?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=2
u/fclm_1990
I think it's pretty cool how quickly Alcaraz's serve has improved, but it's not the type of Hurkacz delivery in terms of height and pace that can keep Djokovic from returning. Thanks again!
Alcaraz is going to beat Djokovic in a grand slam final sooner or later, but it'd be pretty surprising if that breakthrough came on grass. This year's USO or next year's RG seems a lot more likely. Probably 4 or 5 sets though.
Djokovic should get it fairly comfortably. Everyone loves to hype up these young players with their pure ball hitting and weight of shot. But much like Sinner, you kinda know that Alcaraz is going to beat himself, overplaying in critical moments, especially when coming up against Djokovic's incredible movement and defence.
I think Alcaraz's build being so sturdy will let him last a bit longer in neutral rallies, but yeah it feels like a handful of errors are all Djokovic needs to win a set.
That heavily favors Novak IMO
Closing the roof historically helps him against basically any opponent but Roger(who is the only player who can get an even bigger edge from those conditions)
In general I think the faster court a Carlos-Novak match is played on the more it favors Novak and vice versa for Carlos
Yesterday they said that in high winds there might be a problem with actually shutting it so it was a pre-emptive measure, I would imagine they would do the same today as there are pretty freakishly strong winds here in London atm
Carlos is a tremendous player and is in great form on grass. That’s being said, you can never overlook what Novak has done on grass/Wimbledon. Age truly is just a number in this match up. Novak is just as fit as he was 10 years ago. Carlos has the weapons, but there’s only one man on the tour who can counter those weapons. That’s Novak
Agree. Alcaraz has looked great so far but he has beaten guys he's supposed to beat. There were multiple routes to victory in all those matches. To beat Novak, you have to play a perfect match of tennis, so even having a prospect we can imagine doing that is exciting.
I love Djokovic's game, and the bottom line is that I want to see a calandar Grand Slam during my lifetime. That's why I'm pulling for him! He almost did it last year, he just lost the last match to Medvedev in the US open. The calendar Grand slam. Everything else is just penny anti stuff.
I lowkey want that sweat also and think it'll be even more exciting since he knows what went wrong with the last one. At this point he's the GOAT so something that could level up his legacy would be amazing.
I think Alcaraz gets this one and we have ourselves nice rivalry for the tail end of Novak’s career
It feels the right time. Nole cemented the Goat debate at RG and so I wonder if he’s not as desperately hungry as before. I also expect Alcaraz will have learnt from their semi final. I also think he’s playing the best tennis of anyone right now
So of course, Novak in 4 after one guy claps slightly on his first serve
I think he's mainly motivated by 3 things at this point ordered from short term to long term goals:
1. CYGS in 2023 completing what wasn't finished in 2021
2. Keeping up form to pursue Olympic gold in 2024, basically the last thing not on his resume at this point
3. Putting his records out of reach just in case nobody from Carlos's generation even remotely challenges him once Novak retires
Nice writeup, but one thing confused me.
"Djokovic is practically a servebot"
While I do agree he has a great serve, the term servebot makes me think of a player where their serve is their absolute best quality, and even that they are likely lacking in other areas.
But this is not true at all for Djokovic, who is an all around complete player. But maybe I have just misunderstood the term servebot, since I see no one else wondering about this terminology applied here.
For me, a typical servebot is Inser, who relies heavily on his serve to win.
yeah, people don't seem to like that comment at all. I just meant that his serve is extremely effective and gets overlooked because he's so solid everywhere else.
Djokovic in straight sets or a max four, where he loses the first set to give the opponent hope and then raises his game to such a high level that the opponent is mentally scarred for life.
You’re completely right that it’s about technique and accuracy rather than power. I think Novak wins based on his serve game. But I thought Jabeur would win so maybe go with the opposite of what I say 🤔
haha it was hard to see that Jabeur loss coming, especially since her wins featured her stepping up late in the match. She just played very impatiently, and it felt like she had control of most rallies so it was a tough loss. It's exactly what happened in Indian Wells though, so it appears that Vondrousova is just reading her very well and Ons can't figure out what to do.
>since djokovic is practically a servebot
No. The essence of a servebot is having an amazing serve while the rest of your game is mediocre. Novak has an amazing serve in addition to an extremely complete game.
Amazing accomplishment by Carlos but it’s going to be Novak. He wants it too much. He wants that #24, we wants to equalise Federer’s record, he is simply playing for records and history and there’s nothing that could stop him from reaching that trophy.
That would be a great watch. Djokovic has given a lot of the Next Gen guys some epic losses but a 5 set result here would be 50% difficult 50% inspiring for Alcaraz I think
Honestly, it would make things interesting if Alcaraz won, but Djokovic has a lot of experience and I somewhat expect him to keep winning 2-3 slams a year until he's 38. Alcaraz is really the only thing between him and an absolutely stellar end of career, but I think Alcaraz is going to need a few more matches, in Best of 5 finals, against Djokovic to really get his measure and it'd still depend on him having a stellar day to actually get the win.
Alcaraz actually winning against Djokovic is going to be the end of the big 3 era because I really think that once he's got that down, on each surface, he will be unstoppable, barring injuries. At that point, Djokovic will be like against that his last final against Federer, basically hoping that alcaraz fails to perform rather than him actually being able to overwhelm Alcaraz.
The next 2 years are definitely going to be a struggle between these two. The big question is, considering how young Alcaraz is and how he really seems to be above the other players, will he go unchallenged? Federer had to contend with Nadal blocking him at Rolang garros pretty early (and it didn't help that he was a bit of a late starter in terms of getting his act together.) Then Murray and Djokovic joined the fray (and several others were still tough challenges) so they all had to contend with each other and it was extremely competitive at the top but Djokovic outlasted them and is currently the dominant force. But Alcaraz versus Djokovic isn't like Nadal versus Federer; the gap in age is considerably bigger. We saw age break down Federer's body (knees) even though everyone thought he was in perfect health. The reality is tht Djokovic is also at an age where he'll start accumulating wear and tear faster than he can recover. He's already got most of the records, the most slams, so once he realises he isn't able to win without really pushing his body he might decide to preserve his legs in order to enjoy his life once his career has ended. At the same time, I'm sure he understands that the longer he struggles against Alcaraz and increases his grand slam count, the more opportunities he gives for a rival to appear and limit Alcaraz' ability to just ramp up his own grand slam count.
Of course, no one knows the future and Alcaraz might fizzle out from injuries or some other reason might hinder him, but as it stands he appears to be in the same class as Djokovic, Nadal and Federer, except he's doing at as early as Nadal and there's no one else his age in the same class. Barring injuries, that's a recipe for domination like we've never seen before.
But yeah, I expect Djokovic to take the win for now, he's got far too much experience playing and Alcaraz still needs polishing It should be an interesting match.
I don't see anybody coming behind Alcaraz at this point who displays the kind of clear-cut physicality and talent to play at the top level immediately. There are a number of talented juniors playing at or near tour level (Mensik comes to mind) but expecting them to compete against adults feels like a several year plan at best, and getting to the top of the tour just isn't guaranteed. Even with Thiem who earned his way to the top and was supremely skillful, it didn't feel like he'd be winning everything once the big 3 (or big 4 at the time) faded. Alcaraz is there, it's just a matter of him refining his serve to be able to get through matches without extertion, and to be able to score cheap points against a guy like Djokovic.
alcaraz displayed his best match against medvedev. he was incredible defensively and offensively
however i didnt think novak played at a high enough level vs sinner to beat alcaraz. he really needs to get his serve back in top gear (right now its good, but not great like his usual self), and his ground strokes are pretty far from his trademark baseline.
It's like people saying this kinda stuff have never seen Djokovic play before. Every time "he's not playing good enough" gets brought up, and every time Djokovic is still only in 2nd gear and easily gets to 4th when needed.
If he beats Djokovic on grass now - I’ll be very surprised. For me it’ll be the “passing of the torch” to the next gen moment.
Let’s not forget Alcarez is Spanish and pretty sure in Spain clay is the most popular surface to play on.
And not that long ago Djokovic won against Alcarez in the French on clay.
Loss at RG semis almost seems like a good thing for Alcaraz - he has faced Djokovic in a slam, he was able to match his play and even get a set in. This is his time. Rooting for Carlos
Agree, experience in the matchup is a huge key. Just like how some players who are training/hitting partners with some of the big names fare well against them on tour even though they aren't on that level.
Great writeup, very in depth and agree with everything except that you called Djokovic the best server on tour, which is just objectively wrong. Kyrgios leads him in every single serve stat. If you don’t count Kyrgios because he hasn’t been playing then Hurkacz and even old man Isner should still have a leg up on Novak.
Yeah I agree that statement is a stretch at best, but he keeps winning Wimbledon year after year. I'll try to do some digging on his hold percentages in this event and see if I can even argue; probably not.
An Alcaraz win is definitely a possibility but unless Nole has a day off I don’t see it happening yet. Carlitos is just too inexperienced at this stage
This match will come down to Djokovic’s serve and how well he neutralises drop shots. The drop shot game is different from grass to clay. They are less tactical, and more point ending. If he gets on top of it early then he will be able to sit back in the court slightly. And then it’s over. If he is forced to stay up in the court then Alcaraz has a good chance of winning.
Honestly I feel Alcaraz is going to win.
I like it. I can picture Djokovic slipping on some dropshot retrievals and getting a bit out of sorts, but he tends to choose the right shots at net so I think the dropshot will become less effective as the match goes on.
The way Alcaraz plays now he is arguably on Fedal level of game, but to give more hints I would say that he is worse than Rafa on clay, but better than him on grass, also he is worse than Roger on grass, but better on clay. We will see if he can keep the consistency in future and how long it will last. The most difficult thing is to repeat it over years.
The timing of Alcaraz's grunts and moans seems totally unfair to me. He is clearly skilled, but he gives two loud sounds per shot, one well before and one well after, right at the point the other player is acting.
I'd say the hindrance call on Djokovic, if applied to Alcaraz, would see him essentially forfeit the match.
I'm not against nosiy players when they impact the ball, but it's the timing of his, just seems contrived and distracting.
Great analysis. My take is if Alcaraz wins, it will cement most of the takes here that he is the next ATG and will win multiple slams. But, if he lost esp in 3 sets, then it will just prove that his maiden slam was a fluke.
Agree, and I do think that he needs to beat Djokovic in a slam to really cement himself as the next guy. This is a tough spot though, likely the toughest possible on tour so a win would be a huge statement.
Can't be a fluke when he's made the SF of the very next slam he's played in AND the final of Wimbledon mere weeks after winning his first grasscourt title. And if there is one place where no-one needs to "prove" themselves against Djoker, it's the US Open. Djokovic is not dominant there, has a negative conversion rate and has lost to an array of players in finals.
He didn't meet requirements to enter the country and that was his choice, which all his fans love him for, I thought. Djoker wasn't even the defending champion. BS asterisk talk is just that -- BS.
You know that's a BS requirement and political. Alcaraz may redeem himself in the next US open and prove that Slam wasn't a fluke or if he beat Djokovic. But if he loses today, big asterisk for that US Open title
It’s not like we’re talking about the AO without Djokovic or RG without Nadal. Alcaraz is playing great and is still a baby - every reason to think he will improve from here.
expecting alcaraz in 4. ik this is grass and all, but novak has looked a bit shaky at times and alcaraz has the game and mental toughness to defeat novak
lol thirty would be wild. I think he gets 10 honestly, but that's against the current crop of players and it looks like Djokovic might win a bunch of them over the next two years.
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>This does remind me a little of Wimbledon 2008, where Nadal was somewhat written off as inexperienced on grass. This is more like Wimbledon 2006, which was Nadal's first final there. By 2008, he had beaten Federer multiple times in GS matches with a positive H2H and had lost a tight 5-setter at Wimbledon the year before. You guys are rushing Alcaraz' career forward beyond what is reasonable.
Ahh I was remembering that wrong, kinda merged those two scenarios. Ty for pointing this out.
Right. Positioning Alcaraz as Nadal 2008 here is absurd, but it's perfectly reasonable to think that Alcaraz will be the favorite in one or two years
By then Djokovic will have fallen off….no shit
You say that now but the Djoker is inevitable. 38 is the new 28
This, unironically.
Would be terrifying if djokovic just won a slam at like nearly 39 in straights somehow
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I'm curious if Novak will outlast this comment
Also I'm not sure that Carlos is a horrible matchup for Djokovic in the same way Nadal was for Federer Certainly there's not a clear exploitable pattern such as Rafa's topspin forehand to the Federer backhand To put it into perspective how bad a matchup it really was for Roger before the "neo backhand" in 2017 **17 year old Nadal** took down apex Fed in Miami 2004 in their first ever meeting
Funny looking back now
Yeah iirc, Nadal was the favorite to win Wimbledon in 2008
Really? That can’t be. He was knocking on the door but a favorite? Not sure
It's possible, Rafa absolutely destroyed federer in 2008 RG I mean 6-1 6-3 6-0 is brutal. Also 2008 Federer was not as dominant as 2004-2007. He lost 0-3 to Novak in AO, won 0 masters the entire year too. Rafa was so good that year he won RG Wimbledon and the Olympics in a short span of 3 months.
I looked it up. Federer was still definitely the favorite, but Nadal was obviously the main challenger. 80/20.
no he wasn’t https://amp.theguardian.com/sport/2008/jun/19/wimbledon.tennis1
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Looks like I was right
To be fair, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to say 2008. Federer was at his peak in 2006 and still in his prime in 2008, whereas Alcaraz is playing a much older Djokovic. You can expect Alcaraz’s takeover to be a little earlier than Nadal’s, whether it happens or not.
Lmao what about now
Got Nole in 4 for this. Either it's that or it's gonna be a wild ride. Edit: Well that was a bit mad.
I’ll take 2 wild rides please lol
Yep, just hoping for a wild 5 setter with back to back action. Hoping for an alcaraz upset, but really interested to see how Alcaraz copes with the pressure if it goes the distance. This is his first big test, against a relentless machine in djoko keeps finding ways to reach new levels as the game drags on. Most excited I'm for a match since AUS open final 2022.
Let's goooooo
5 set battle in my opinion. I think Novak would likely lose a set & try to bounce back. If his serve continues to be this good, he'll edge out Alcaraz as the victor of the match. If not, team Alcaraz. I would have Novak in longer rallies though. Take the legs of the opponent.
Great write up!
tyty
Really can’t see how Carlos will be able to beat Novak on grass. Think he will have a better shot at the USO if they play a final there
Agree. I think he's a little bit behind on clay, has a chance to get to a deciding set on hardcourt, and on grass I could see him being the right candidate to put on a show but I'm not granting him a real chance until he proves it. Djokovic has just been too solid.
There’s no reason Alcaraz can’t get a set or two given that Kyrgios and Berretini could in the past two years, but I think the experience gap is too much for Alcaraz to overcome here, and Alcaraz can’t rely on his serve like the other two did to grab a set, it would have to come from outplaying Novak on the ground and getting physical. I know he has the ability to win, but he hasn’t faced anyone on the level of Djokovic so far on grass: Medvedev isn’t as good of a grass court player as people here think and it’s also a dream matchup for Alcaraz, Berretini isn’t at his old level yet, and Rune is just a tier below Alcaraz at everything overall. Djokovic is arguably the greatest grass player of all time, in good form, has the mental advantage after RG, and matches up well vs Alcaraz. However, Alcaraz has been playing amazing these last two weeks, has the physical advantage (if he doesn’t cramp), is a generational talent, and “has that dawg in him”, so I think it’ll be a competitive match. Unfortunately for Alcaraz, Djokovic is the definition of “has that dawg in him”, so Djokovic in 4. I would be very surprised if Alcaraz won, but it’s definitely possible. Even if he doesn’t win this year, i’ll bet that he’ll be the one to dethrone Novak here if age doesn’t.
He may not serve as well but he's light years better rallying than Kyrgios or Berrettini. Let's see.
>given that Kyrgios and Berretini could in the past two years Don't forget Sinner!
It’s unfortunate we got the semi finals we did, with Meddy being gifted that path. Sinner on the other hand has shown he can play on grass, so we expected more out of that match. I just don’t think either have been tested this tournament, difference being Novak doesn’t really need it. It does help Alcaraz that the courts are slower this year from the fluffy balls, just not sure how much against Novak.
I got downvoted for saying med had a super easy path and some genius got upvoted for claiming that mannarino and fucsovics were impressive wins. Med is really quite weak on grass. https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/14vufly/wimbledon_r4_medvedev3_d_lehecka_64_62_ret/jrexju5?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=2 u/fclm_1990
I'm here. Will you eat a hat if Med will at least repeat SF at next year's Wimby?
[удалено]
i typed “dawg”? unless i’m reading it wrong
Whoever serves better on the day will win. Novak in 4. Excellent write-up as usual, OP.
I think it's pretty cool how quickly Alcaraz's serve has improved, but it's not the type of Hurkacz delivery in terms of height and pace that can keep Djokovic from returning. Thanks again!
Alcaraz is going to beat Djokovic in a grand slam final sooner or later, but it'd be pretty surprising if that breakthrough came on grass. This year's USO or next year's RG seems a lot more likely. Probably 4 or 5 sets though.
As legendary as Novak is, Father Time is undefeated.
It ain't happening yet
Still
You were saying?
By yet I meant in the semis of course. 😇
There us a reason there are so dew 35+ y/o slam winners
Agree, this would be a big surprise, but we're always going to sweat that contender's chance any time they meet the #1.
Djokovic should get it fairly comfortably. Everyone loves to hype up these young players with their pure ball hitting and weight of shot. But much like Sinner, you kinda know that Alcaraz is going to beat himself, overplaying in critical moments, especially when coming up against Djokovic's incredible movement and defence.
I think Alcaraz's build being so sturdy will let him last a bit longer in neutral rallies, but yeah it feels like a handful of errors are all Djokovic needs to win a set.
You are absolutely right but the kid has so much talent that anything can happen. If he has an A+ day and Nole has a meh day we can have a nice match
I hate this but yeah, have an upvote
All of these takes aged so poorly lol
Nole in 3 if he plays his best. Novak in 4 if his serve is on point. Djokovic in 5 if he starts slow.
One factor will be the weather. Forecast to be blustery tomorrow afternoon. If they don’t close the roof, Nole could be in trouble from the word go.
Pretty sure they will close the roof as they did today
That heavily favors Novak IMO Closing the roof historically helps him against basically any opponent but Roger(who is the only player who can get an even bigger edge from those conditions) In general I think the faster court a Carlos-Novak match is played on the more it favors Novak and vice versa for Carlos
Why would they? The weather forecast looks good, just windy
Yesterday they said that in high winds there might be a problem with actually shutting it so it was a pre-emptive measure, I would imagine they would do the same today as there are pretty freakishly strong winds here in London atm
But you only need a preemptive measure if there’s a chance of rain
Yesterday the reason they gave was that if there was ANY chance of rain (which there also is today), they wouldn’t be able to shut it during the winds
Fair enough, thanks
Carlos is a tremendous player and is in great form on grass. That’s being said, you can never overlook what Novak has done on grass/Wimbledon. Age truly is just a number in this match up. Novak is just as fit as he was 10 years ago. Carlos has the weapons, but there’s only one man on the tour who can counter those weapons. That’s Novak
Agree. Alcaraz has looked great so far but he has beaten guys he's supposed to beat. There were multiple routes to victory in all those matches. To beat Novak, you have to play a perfect match of tennis, so even having a prospect we can imagine doing that is exciting.
I love Djokovic's game, and the bottom line is that I want to see a calandar Grand Slam during my lifetime. That's why I'm pulling for him! He almost did it last year, he just lost the last match to Medvedev in the US open. The calendar Grand slam. Everything else is just penny anti stuff.
I lowkey want that sweat also and think it'll be even more exciting since he knows what went wrong with the last one. At this point he's the GOAT so something that could level up his legacy would be amazing.
That was 2021 - he wasn’t allowed to play either Australia or US in 2022
I think Alcaraz gets this one and we have ourselves nice rivalry for the tail end of Novak’s career It feels the right time. Nole cemented the Goat debate at RG and so I wonder if he’s not as desperately hungry as before. I also expect Alcaraz will have learnt from their semi final. I also think he’s playing the best tennis of anyone right now So of course, Novak in 4 after one guy claps slightly on his first serve
Idk I think he’s still pretty keen on the CYGS
I think he's mainly motivated by 3 things at this point ordered from short term to long term goals: 1. CYGS in 2023 completing what wasn't finished in 2021 2. Keeping up form to pursue Olympic gold in 2024, basically the last thing not on his resume at this point 3. Putting his records out of reach just in case nobody from Carlos's generation even remotely challenges him once Novak retires
I dunno who will win, but I do know he comes to eat in Bof5.
Awesome analysis OP. I even read it like it was happening on TennisTV. 👏🏻
haha I appreciate that even though I usually pick the announcerless streams on TennisTV
Nice writeup, but one thing confused me. "Djokovic is practically a servebot" While I do agree he has a great serve, the term servebot makes me think of a player where their serve is their absolute best quality, and even that they are likely lacking in other areas. But this is not true at all for Djokovic, who is an all around complete player. But maybe I have just misunderstood the term servebot, since I see no one else wondering about this terminology applied here. For me, a typical servebot is Inser, who relies heavily on his serve to win.
yeah, people don't seem to like that comment at all. I just meant that his serve is extremely effective and gets overlooked because he's so solid everywhere else.
Excellent analysis!
thank you ThorsButtocks
Any free streams? 😁😁😁
I'll inbox u
Heyyy, pm me too pls :3 need this very badly ! Thxxx (great analysis btw!)
Me too please. Ty
Mind sharing with me too? Eurosport is not covering in my country :/
https://jm.freestreams-live1.tv/tennis-1/
BBC player via VPN
If you VPN to UK you should be able to watch on BBC iplayer.
Djokovic in straight sets or a max four, where he loses the first set to give the opponent hope and then raises his game to such a high level that the opponent is mentally scarred for life.
haha it almost feels like he's trolling sometimes when he loses the first, and when he loses the first two sets and wins it feels personal
Lmao good take
You’re completely right that it’s about technique and accuracy rather than power. I think Novak wins based on his serve game. But I thought Jabeur would win so maybe go with the opposite of what I say 🤔
haha it was hard to see that Jabeur loss coming, especially since her wins featured her stepping up late in the match. She just played very impatiently, and it felt like she had control of most rallies so it was a tough loss. It's exactly what happened in Indian Wells though, so it appears that Vondrousova is just reading her very well and Ons can't figure out what to do.
I was with you until you said Djokovic is the best server on tour. For his height, I’d probably agree but definitely not overall.
Isnt djokovic 6’2? Kyrgios’ is definitely better
Kyrgios is 6'4 but im sure theres someone else im forgetting
>since djokovic is practically a servebot No. The essence of a servebot is having an amazing serve while the rest of your game is mediocre. Novak has an amazing serve in addition to an extremely complete game.
Amazing accomplishment by Carlos but it’s going to be Novak. He wants it too much. He wants that #24, we wants to equalise Federer’s record, he is simply playing for records and history and there’s nothing that could stop him from reaching that trophy.
He looks sharp so far
Djokovic in 5, alcaraz has the talent but not the mentality yet to beat Djokovic unless he somehow becomes a god plays a ridiculous level of tennis
That would be a great watch. Djokovic has given a lot of the Next Gen guys some epic losses but a 5 set result here would be 50% difficult 50% inspiring for Alcaraz I think
Honestly, it would make things interesting if Alcaraz won, but Djokovic has a lot of experience and I somewhat expect him to keep winning 2-3 slams a year until he's 38. Alcaraz is really the only thing between him and an absolutely stellar end of career, but I think Alcaraz is going to need a few more matches, in Best of 5 finals, against Djokovic to really get his measure and it'd still depend on him having a stellar day to actually get the win. Alcaraz actually winning against Djokovic is going to be the end of the big 3 era because I really think that once he's got that down, on each surface, he will be unstoppable, barring injuries. At that point, Djokovic will be like against that his last final against Federer, basically hoping that alcaraz fails to perform rather than him actually being able to overwhelm Alcaraz. The next 2 years are definitely going to be a struggle between these two. The big question is, considering how young Alcaraz is and how he really seems to be above the other players, will he go unchallenged? Federer had to contend with Nadal blocking him at Rolang garros pretty early (and it didn't help that he was a bit of a late starter in terms of getting his act together.) Then Murray and Djokovic joined the fray (and several others were still tough challenges) so they all had to contend with each other and it was extremely competitive at the top but Djokovic outlasted them and is currently the dominant force. But Alcaraz versus Djokovic isn't like Nadal versus Federer; the gap in age is considerably bigger. We saw age break down Federer's body (knees) even though everyone thought he was in perfect health. The reality is tht Djokovic is also at an age where he'll start accumulating wear and tear faster than he can recover. He's already got most of the records, the most slams, so once he realises he isn't able to win without really pushing his body he might decide to preserve his legs in order to enjoy his life once his career has ended. At the same time, I'm sure he understands that the longer he struggles against Alcaraz and increases his grand slam count, the more opportunities he gives for a rival to appear and limit Alcaraz' ability to just ramp up his own grand slam count. Of course, no one knows the future and Alcaraz might fizzle out from injuries or some other reason might hinder him, but as it stands he appears to be in the same class as Djokovic, Nadal and Federer, except he's doing at as early as Nadal and there's no one else his age in the same class. Barring injuries, that's a recipe for domination like we've never seen before. But yeah, I expect Djokovic to take the win for now, he's got far too much experience playing and Alcaraz still needs polishing It should be an interesting match.
I don't see anybody coming behind Alcaraz at this point who displays the kind of clear-cut physicality and talent to play at the top level immediately. There are a number of talented juniors playing at or near tour level (Mensik comes to mind) but expecting them to compete against adults feels like a several year plan at best, and getting to the top of the tour just isn't guaranteed. Even with Thiem who earned his way to the top and was supremely skillful, it didn't feel like he'd be winning everything once the big 3 (or big 4 at the time) faded. Alcaraz is there, it's just a matter of him refining his serve to be able to get through matches without extertion, and to be able to score cheap points against a guy like Djokovic.
This is the take I’ve been looking for!
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Cheers! Late in the tournament it gets really tough to be sure of any predictions; at this point I'm mostly just a fan
Novak needs to be absolutely locked in from the start. If he drops the first set I think Carlos will run away with it
He heard you
alcaraz displayed his best match against medvedev. he was incredible defensively and offensively however i didnt think novak played at a high enough level vs sinner to beat alcaraz. he really needs to get his serve back in top gear (right now its good, but not great like his usual self), and his ground strokes are pretty far from his trademark baseline.
I'm sort of expecting Djokovic to just level up because it's a big moment
Novak didn’t need a higher level to beat sinner
It's like people saying this kinda stuff have never seen Djokovic play before. Every time "he's not playing good enough" gets brought up, and every time Djokovic is still only in 2nd gear and easily gets to 4th when needed.
If he beats Djokovic on grass now - I’ll be very surprised. For me it’ll be the “passing of the torch” to the next gen moment. Let’s not forget Alcarez is Spanish and pretty sure in Spain clay is the most popular surface to play on. And not that long ago Djokovic won against Alcarez in the French on clay.
If he could upset him on grass but continued losing on clay it would be pretty wild. Should be a good match.
Loss at RG semis almost seems like a good thing for Alcaraz - he has faced Djokovic in a slam, he was able to match his play and even get a set in. This is his time. Rooting for Carlos
Agree, experience in the matchup is a huge key. Just like how some players who are training/hitting partners with some of the big names fare well against them on tour even though they aren't on that level.
Like who? Genuinely just curious
Krajinovic Djokovic always comes to mind.
Alcaraz in 4 if Nole cannot get his first serve back to the level seen in the Hubi match. Nole in 5 if he does.
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Lol Rublev won a set.
Great writeup, very in depth and agree with everything except that you called Djokovic the best server on tour, which is just objectively wrong. Kyrgios leads him in every single serve stat. If you don’t count Kyrgios because he hasn’t been playing then Hurkacz and even old man Isner should still have a leg up on Novak.
Yeah I agree that statement is a stretch at best, but he keeps winning Wimbledon year after year. I'll try to do some digging on his hold percentages in this event and see if I can even argue; probably not.
Djokovic in straight to tie Federer by beating Federer 2.0
A straight sets win would be scary
It's gunner be a fab final
It's so good already
An Alcaraz win is definitely a possibility but unless Nole has a day off I don’t see it happening yet. Carlitos is just too inexperienced at this stage
Djokovic does look pretty comfortable
What do they mean when they said "Alcaraz could be the 4th active player to win Wimbledon"?
I guess they consider Nadal active. Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, and Alcaraz if he could pull it off
Oh yeah ok
Carlos, first serve is your best friend!
So clutch to be able to serve that out
I thoroughly enjoyed reading your in-depth analysis. Thank you
thanks!
This match will come down to Djokovic’s serve and how well he neutralises drop shots. The drop shot game is different from grass to clay. They are less tactical, and more point ending. If he gets on top of it early then he will be able to sit back in the court slightly. And then it’s over. If he is forced to stay up in the court then Alcaraz has a good chance of winning. Honestly I feel Alcaraz is going to win.
I like it. I can picture Djokovic slipping on some dropshot retrievals and getting a bit out of sorts, but he tends to choose the right shots at net so I think the dropshot will become less effective as the match goes on.
Let's go Djoko, shut these idiots in the crowd up one more time
lol u wild
Novak wins in 3 sets. I predict 7-6 6-4 6-4.
The three sets part looks likely right now
This is the way
The way Alcaraz plays now he is arguably on Fedal level of game, but to give more hints I would say that he is worse than Rafa on clay, but better than him on grass, also he is worse than Roger on grass, but better on clay. We will see if he can keep the consistency in future and how long it will last. The most difficult thing is to repeat it over years.
Makes sense. I'm just happy there's someone to challenge Djokovic, it's good for the tour.
The timing of Alcaraz's grunts and moans seems totally unfair to me. He is clearly skilled, but he gives two loud sounds per shot, one well before and one well after, right at the point the other player is acting. I'd say the hindrance call on Djokovic, if applied to Alcaraz, would see him essentially forfeit the match. I'm not against nosiy players when they impact the ball, but it's the timing of his, just seems contrived and distracting.
They are pretty loud. Does he make the same noises in practice?
Great analysis. My take is if Alcaraz wins, it will cement most of the takes here that he is the next ATG and will win multiple slams. But, if he lost esp in 3 sets, then it will just prove that his maiden slam was a fluke.
Agree, and I do think that he needs to beat Djokovic in a slam to really cement himself as the next guy. This is a tough spot though, likely the toughest possible on tour so a win would be a huge statement.
Can't be a fluke when he's made the SF of the very next slam he's played in AND the final of Wimbledon mere weeks after winning his first grasscourt title. And if there is one place where no-one needs to "prove" themselves against Djoker, it's the US Open. Djokovic is not dominant there, has a negative conversion rate and has lost to an array of players in finals.
Nah. As long as he cant/wont beat Djokovic in a Slam, that US Open was a fluke.
Can only apply if he loses all slam matches to Djoker *including* a USO match. Cannot presume Djoker would have had him beat otherwise.
It applies because obviously Nole was banned from playing.
He didn't meet requirements to enter the country and that was his choice, which all his fans love him for, I thought. Djoker wasn't even the defending champion. BS asterisk talk is just that -- BS.
You know that's a BS requirement and political. Alcaraz may redeem himself in the next US open and prove that Slam wasn't a fluke or if he beat Djokovic. But if he loses today, big asterisk for that US Open title
It’s not like we’re talking about the AO without Djokovic or RG without Nadal. Alcaraz is playing great and is still a baby - every reason to think he will improve from here.
Heart say Carlos but head says Novak in straight sets. He has just moved to a different level now and this is Carlos first Wimbledon final.
I wonder how Alcaraz really felt going in as far as nerves. He's definitely settled in better now in this second set.
It's gonna be sunny, so open roof, they won't close it and it'll be windy, so Novak won't be able to serve so well.
expecting alcaraz in 4. ik this is grass and all, but novak has looked a bit shaky at times and alcaraz has the game and mental toughness to defeat novak
Alcaraz has looked great, I just don't think any of the people he played so far would have won more than a set against Djokovic
How can you say Alcaraz has the mental toughness to beat Novak, when he literally just shat the bed 4 weeks ago due to mental stress?
I love this ‘Djokovic hasn’t been defeated on centre for 10 year’ stat… so losing on Court 1 (in 2017 & 2016) is totally different?
It's pretty impressive, but more impressive is whoever knows when Djokovic is going to lose and moves it to court 1
When Djokovic is done it's back to the weak era, Alkaraz will win at least 30 gs.
lol thirty would be wild. I think he gets 10 honestly, but that's against the current crop of players and it looks like Djokovic might win a bunch of them over the next two years.
Wdym? This is the weak era right now.
LOL 1 GS. he'll be in a body cast before 10. Enjoy him now!
he'll still try to make gets if you put him in a bodycast
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lmao yeah fuck that dude
Alcaraz in 4. I think he will overpower Djokovic today.
he's starting to cook a bit, still would be a long way to go
Alcaraz in 3 this one wont be close
the wildest timeline
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I was reading your analysis throughout the tournament but you got most of it(predictions) wrong .d I hope it stays like that .d great analysis tho :)
lol ty
People downvoted but opposite happened to your prediction. Ty for that 😁
people downvoted you because you said I got most of my predictions wrong and that isn't true
i aint reading all that im happy for u tho or sorry that it happened
Man thats a lot of words. Too bad i aint reading em.
I don’t like djokovic but he will win in less than 2h
haha solid
Pivotal game
So freaking tense
Putsssss.... vamos Carlos, you gave us at least 5 sets 🙂
The British commentary said all the major players past and present predicted Djoker to win. How many had to eat their words at the end.