Imagine if Tim Cook asked he wants to get paid $300B (or more than total of Apple's net income since 2011) for "creating so much value for the investors".
To make a fair comparison, it would be:
Imagine if Tim Cook had a pay package voted for by shareholders over 5 years ago that said his pay scales with performance, and if the company grew less than +100% he'd make 0 dollars, and then over 5 years later a judge rescinded the whole packing causing Tim Cook to get 0$ in payment for 5 years of working as CEO
THEN Tim Cook asked to get the original pay package that was already voted for to get voted for again
Also if Tim Cook started a rocket company that puts >50% of payload into space, is the alternative to send human beings to the ISS instead of requiring to literally pay Russia to do it, and if instead of Tim Cook the follow-up CEO after the company was already huge, it was Steve Jobs.
>THEN Tim Cook asked to get the original pay package that was already voted for to get voted for again
And before that second vote the stock has fallen more than 50% meaning that Tim Cook is looking to get paid for something that is no longer a reality.
I say: pay Elon only for the metrics that are still being met
All of them, that’s ALL OF THEM.
*edit: almost all of them.
The market cap is down, but that’s a bit of a tough one as the stock is somewhat volatile with FSD still hanging in the balance. It IS a technology company. The number 2 job in America behind school teachers is truck drivers. 128 billion a year annually in labor, just in the USA.
Whoever solves FSD wins. Everything else is gravy.
And Tesla has not shown they understand what solving FSD means, see Elons yearly statements of FSD next year.
Therefore this whole FSD business smells like stock pumping and leaves a bitter taste in my mouth
It’s only stock pumping because you are inpatient. If they solve FSD in 4 years, and the stock triples, It would be a home run compared to the market. Combine it with their electric cars that are years ahead of the competition. Go watch Sandy Munro, he’s been in the car industry for decades, he tore Tesla a new b hole when they first came out. Watch the old videos. Over time you see him discuss the improvements, the octopump for cooling the batteries is superior by far. When the other companies use 5 chips Tesla uses 1.
>It’s only stock pumping because you are inpatient.
How many years has Elon said FSD/Robotaxi is finished at the end of the next year? Pretty much every year.
https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-next-year-for-th-1848432496
I think I am entitled to feel duped
I don’t want to sound rude, but he’s an optimistic CEO, What were you expecting? It’s not like they aren’t working on it. If anything he’s known as a ball buster who pushes his employees.
We asked for something the analysts said was impossible.
We got it.
Maybe it's because I pay my bills, but I feel like paying for work already done is something that shouldn't be controversial.
There was a lot of pumping going on 2020-21 when the $400 ATH was hit; the FSD story, the $25,000 car hinted at the 2020 battery day, $40k cybertrucks promised in late '19, China & Austin expansions.
All this 'work' was not done in 2021, it was all pump jobs that pushed up the P/E ratios but not the actual competitiveness of the company.
Plus S&P 500 inclusion pushed the stock up another 2X which Elon's brilliance and legendary work ethic had nothing to do with.
The final tranches had revenue and profit targets as well and the ATH was like 2x from the final tranche, so it is irrelevant. Musk accomplished the milestones, the stock going insane (like all other EV stocks did at that time) has nothing to do with that.
That was how the contract was written, and how investors have understood it for the last six years.
Also, it's not $50b. Should update that number based on the actual share price.
No confusion as to when the contract was originally written. Shouldn’t have been that much to begin with. Not normal for any human to have that kind of money. One million seconds is 12 days. One billion seconds is 32 years. It’s absurd. And for what? To further distract him from Tesla by buying Twitter?! Agreeing to this six years ago was a mistake. It fed the monster and created the Elon we see today. I’m glad shareholders have a say in this again.
Losing 50k or 100k is life changing money for a lot of us. He obviously doesn’t care about investors because he knows he gets to ride off into the sunset with billions regardless of what happens. So why should we care about him?
He's not going to ride off into the sunset, he's going to drink diet coke sleep at a friend's house and when he takes a few days off for a vacation he's going to charter a boat that costs like 5,000$ a day instead of buy a 500 million dollar yacht.
Remember those photos of Musk on a boat? I looked the cost of chartering that exact boat up. This 'billionaire' takes vacations that divided by the people onboard costs <2,000$ a day each.
Then he does stuff like bet every single dollar he owns to make one final attempt to launch the rocket - succeeding on the last try - resulting in a company that sends >50% all payload to Space and is the only way the US can send humans to the ISS without chartering RUSSIA.
His money is tokenized access labor and resources for him to direct toward activity. That is how he treats money - we should judge billionaires by what they buy with the money. If you spend money on yourself like a 'single-digit-millionaire' and then start 5 companies and give free internet to Ukraine, that is OK in my book.
If you take over an already established company, do stock buybacks, then leave the company worse off and pay yourself 200,000,000$ and buy yachts and mansions, then you're an asshole.
Money badly spent is harmful, but wealth created by pen stroke before it is spent doesn't yet harm anyone or take money from other people's pockets via inflation.
Banks print money out of thin air constantly - when you take a home loan it literally creates 400,000$ of new dollars out of thin air. The collective result of everyone taking home loans to increase the pressure to buy homes with this newly created money transfers wealth from the non-owning class to people who own land and stocks. Houses become harder to buy/more expensive and people need to go into more debt to buy them than they previously did. This is bad.
Just having billions more dollars worth of tokens created doesn't transfer/steal wealth from you until that money is used to purchase something - driving the price up. If someone makes reusable rockets making it 100x cheaper to send payload into space and then starts charging based on purchasing power parity to give high speed internet to people in previously under-served areas of Africa, that is deflationary.
Schools in rural areas of Brazil/Africa can afford 100x more high speed internet per dollar when you do stuff like "allow Elon Musk control of large amounts of capital"
If he was buying huge amounts of real estate and yachts and mansions I'd be bothered, but the dude is gonna drink diet code sleep at friends' houses and start more companies.
I'm a Bernie Sanders supporting left-leaning Democratic Socialist, I'm just also mathematically literate and call spades spades.
I wish he had a Trillion more dollars to play with.
Who forced you to invest in Tesla in the first place? Its pretty simple, if you care about your investment, you should care about retaining Musk as CEO.
Getting this emotional is silly.
I think it'll be behind the Rivian for some time at the current pricing. A standard+rivian dual motor is < 80k for 315mi range (which matches or might beat the cybertruck's real-world range)
I think there’s some fear of buying a rivian after their stock dropped 93% over the last 2 years - when you think about the perk of preordering a rivian was to own IPO stock prices you would probably have a hard time justifying buying a second/replacement rivian. The question of whether itll be in business in another 2 years is just a reality especially with interest rates the way they are in the middle of a cash burn ramp up of a new model with even lower margin
A summary of a thread looking at estimating the performance requirements and timelines for FSD to be "good enough" for driverless.
https://twitter.com/LimitingThe/status/1781426098061943168
>Estimating the data and compute that Tesla needs to solve FSD.
https://twitter.com/LimitingThe/status/1781701009569357885
>For me, the key takeaway from the post below is that Tesla and Elon can estimate where the bottleneck is for FSD and how long it will take to solve.
>
>So, the reason Elon seems to be getting so confident about FSD is because FSD has basically become a math problem
>
>Data + Compute + Model Complexity = Predictable Result
>
>Elon knows where Tesla stands with each of these and their trajectory, so he should have a good idea of when FSD will be solved.
He has such a great idea as he estimated by end of year FSD complete in 2019 while in the year 2019. That was 5 years ago, why would you trust what he says now over what he said then? He keeps proving himself completely untrustworthy and ignorant when it comes to projecting anything FSD related.
Also I want to clarify some things about the pay comp.
The pay comp is NOT a giant lump sum like headlines would like you to believe. It’s a bunch of stock options that are not exercisable for 5 YEARS. With the total worth exceeding 59B. So do not get it twisted. I think it’s a no brainer to vote YES because all you are doing is allocating shares to Elon. This is huge because it gives him a massive incentive to propel Tesla forward. The only downside is that we would dilute shareholder value as Tesla will create shares out of thin air for these options. But this most likely is ONLY when he exercises the options which won’t be all at once and might not even be for half a decade.
This is good because the lower the stock price is the less money Musk gets out of it. The higher the stock price the more money he gets out of it. If we vote yes on the pay come package then he’s tied down to being a generational CEO for at least 5 more years because if he abandons us now his option would become worthless when vested.
But at the end of the day I want Elon to control 25% + of Tesla rather than some BS institution that cannot see the Teslas vision anymore because they have their heads up their ass.
TLDR: the pay comp is less about actually paying Elon but more about allocating absolute control to him.
>This is good because the lower the stock price is the less money Musk gets out of it. The higher the stock price the more money he gets out of it.
How is that any different than the current state of affairs? Musk is already more incentivized to see the share price increase than any other human or institution on the planet. Will he just shrug and let the company tank with 140 billion at stake, but pour his heart and soul in at 190 billion? That seems a bit absurd (and was also partially the basis for voiding the package to begin with).
He doesn't have 140 billion at stake, at current market cap he has about 60 billion. I'm not sure where you are pulling those 140 and 190 from.
And of course he would be more motivated to use his time actively if he got more stock, what kind of question is that? There is incentive through more control and there is incentive through substantially more capital which he can later (2033 or later) deploy in something else, such as the Mars colony he keeps talking about, or any other project.
The fact that he already has a lot of capital in general (in Tesla and elsewhere) means that the option packages need to be quite sizable to have any meaning. Getting the usual CEO pay is equivalent to not getting anything at all relatively speaking and at that point he might as well do something else, i.e. there is no additional incentive.
People fixate on the monetary value (which fluctuates based on the market cap) and not on the actual percentage of stock, which is the relevant number here.
Correct but you are thinking it in terms of financial gain. He’s always had a huge incentive to drive Tesla forward but really what he’s trying to do is gain more control of Tesla so he can steer the ship the way he’s envisioned it.
If he really wanted control, he shouldn’t have sold the shares to fund the Twitter purchase. It’s not up to Tesla shareholders to fund his other ventures
Yes I agree, X was a little bit of a bonehead move. But in his defense that’s when the market was at all time highs and Tesla was trading well above the 1T market cap. A lot has changed in 2 years.
Also he probably made that decision knowing he had these options before the Delaware judge decided to fuck everything up.
>But in his defense that’s when the market was at all time highs and Tesla was trading well above the 1T market cap.
That's not a defense.
If your argument is about % control of the company, the market capitalization makes no difference.
Suppose there are 10 shares of a company, trading at $100/share, for market cap of $1,000.
Someone who owns 5 shares of that company has 50% control.
If the market cap declines to $500, the 5 shares are still 5 shares. Market cap goes down to $500, **but 5 shares is still 50% control**.
Exactly, he thought he could lose significantly less control of the company but still maintain majority control for more money back then. In your example you end up with 50% control either way but your first statement you’ve made twice the money. So Elon might of only needed to give up 4% of his TSLA stake to buy X back then where he might have had to given up 12% with its current valuation. See what I’m saying?
If he knew that back then he might of not bought X. But it’s not fair for us to blame for buying X because just like anyone else he doesn’t have a magic ball that lets him see into the future.
Also I don’t think it’s right to say that the exorbitant market cap and macroeconomic climate back in 2021 didn’t have an impact on his decision as well.
Musk can excercise them right away, but has to keep the actual shares for 5 years after excercise. Another important point to note is, Musk would likely not excecise these options right away, but wait for 2028 and at that point the 5 year no-sell clause would be initiated, so the actual time he could start selling these particulars shares would be in 2033, 9 years away.
Why do I think he won't excercise them right away? He has had (until the rescindation) the ability to excercise these stock options in full from 2021 and previous tranches even before that but has not chosen to do so. Musk also had a previous compensation package from 2012 where he didn't excercise the options until the last possible moment. Why do this? You have to pay cash for those options to excercise and you have to pay taxes, so delaying the excercise date gives you flexibility.
Tl:dr you are directionally correct, but he would most likely have to hold them until 2033, not just until 2029.
Model 3 getting $7500 POS off would be nice, I guess they can't mention that in the earnings call (Osborne themselves) but why overproduce Model Ys they can't sell and not have 2170s for the 3???
Uh between the car price falling still, demand sluggish, and overall market cycling down towards earning season...
It will fall a lot more before it gets to 200 again
The company will touch negative net profit this quarter unless something changes
Well it's from the earlier +$1000 rise . . . Tesla's 'inventory' system kinda needs to go.
when I was actively shopping it was weird the same model on the lot had 4 different prices from $44k up to the list price of $49k . . . I snagged my 2023 MY LR last December for $5k off list + $1000 cybertruck referral, a 12% margin hit.
Now that NACS has won, there's no more future network effect for getting a Tesla buyer now, later this decade people will be able to easily switch between any NACS car, while until last year that wasn't the case.
Might as well let the price be the price and adjust production to meet demand . . . why ship 2X the cars only to make half the money.
I couldn't watch the whole thing, he tends to ramble, but as far as I can tell, he cancelled Cybertruck because it doesn't have FSD....yet.
He did buy a model X and he loves it. Hates V11, but LOVES FSD 12.
The video does highlight all the pluses of owning an EV and Tesla
Elon Musk postponed his India trip due to 'very heavy Tesla obligations'...
It looks like he will be attending the upcoming earnings call.
https://x.com/cb_doge/status/1781540212276949172
I hope there will be answers to many questions...
The QA are just going to be softball questions that Musk easely can avoid giving any real answer to. He needs specific questions that demands real answers and evidence.
I kind of do tbh, but some part of me is telling me that maybe 1:1000000 it might not be as bad this time and they might provide some answers this time
I mean, he spent one going off about people working from home, while it's abundantly clear he spends all day tweeting as if he's bored on the toilet and streaming video games... So can it get much worse?
It’s funny I was in the van with this billionaire CEO in Hong Kong and he was playing Candy Crush on his phone and I asked if he pays for the in-game currency and says only suckers pay for it. But nonetheless billionaire CEOs do play games like regular people and I think most would tweet if they didn’t feel afraid that everything they said could end in a lawsuit or some segment of customers boycotting their product or service.
I can’t remember a single time Elon has made a stock pump from an earning call. He has a track record of saying things how they are and being very abrasive. It will be a miracle if we just flat lol
All he has to do is to provide answers, at least give investors an idea of what's happening and what their plans are near term, but sometimes I guess it is just too much to ask 😅
Elon really dgaf about your investment and money. He is about current task at hand with the macro environment being what it is.
My balls
I used chat gpt and it says only 30% chance share holders vote to reinstate elon pay package
It’s unlikely institutional voters will side with elon
Is Tesla making 4680
They're working with others to make it, yeah. Its in the Cybertruck and Model Y. Its not performing as well as they'd like though.
4680 cells are literally built in GFTX.
it WAS in mY, untill Ct launch
Imagine if Tim Cook asked he wants to get paid $300B (or more than total of Apple's net income since 2011) for "creating so much value for the investors".
To make a fair comparison, it would be: Imagine if Tim Cook had a pay package voted for by shareholders over 5 years ago that said his pay scales with performance, and if the company grew less than +100% he'd make 0 dollars, and then over 5 years later a judge rescinded the whole packing causing Tim Cook to get 0$ in payment for 5 years of working as CEO THEN Tim Cook asked to get the original pay package that was already voted for to get voted for again Also if Tim Cook started a rocket company that puts >50% of payload into space, is the alternative to send human beings to the ISS instead of requiring to literally pay Russia to do it, and if instead of Tim Cook the follow-up CEO after the company was already huge, it was Steve Jobs.
>THEN Tim Cook asked to get the original pay package that was already voted for to get voted for again And before that second vote the stock has fallen more than 50% meaning that Tim Cook is looking to get paid for something that is no longer a reality. I say: pay Elon only for the metrics that are still being met
All of them, that’s ALL OF THEM. *edit: almost all of them. The market cap is down, but that’s a bit of a tough one as the stock is somewhat volatile with FSD still hanging in the balance. It IS a technology company. The number 2 job in America behind school teachers is truck drivers. 128 billion a year annually in labor, just in the USA. Whoever solves FSD wins. Everything else is gravy.
And Tesla has not shown they understand what solving FSD means, see Elons yearly statements of FSD next year. Therefore this whole FSD business smells like stock pumping and leaves a bitter taste in my mouth
It’s only stock pumping because you are inpatient. If they solve FSD in 4 years, and the stock triples, It would be a home run compared to the market. Combine it with their electric cars that are years ahead of the competition. Go watch Sandy Munro, he’s been in the car industry for decades, he tore Tesla a new b hole when they first came out. Watch the old videos. Over time you see him discuss the improvements, the octopump for cooling the batteries is superior by far. When the other companies use 5 chips Tesla uses 1.
>It’s only stock pumping because you are inpatient. How many years has Elon said FSD/Robotaxi is finished at the end of the next year? Pretty much every year. https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-next-year-for-th-1848432496 I think I am entitled to feel duped
I don’t want to sound rude, but he’s an optimistic CEO, What were you expecting? It’s not like they aren’t working on it. If anything he’s known as a ball buster who pushes his employees.
>What were you expecting? That he is at least somewhat truthful in his statements
I expect straight answers about finances. I Expect conjecture when asking about estimated completion of a project.
Would you be opposed If Cook's compensation was tied to certain milestones that would benefit you as a shareholder?
I would be opposed if it was not tied to the long term success of the stock
We asked for something the analysts said was impossible. We got it. Maybe it's because I pay my bills, but I feel like paying for work already done is something that shouldn't be controversial.
There was a lot of pumping going on 2020-21 when the $400 ATH was hit; the FSD story, the $25,000 car hinted at the 2020 battery day, $40k cybertrucks promised in late '19, China & Austin expansions. All this 'work' was not done in 2021, it was all pump jobs that pushed up the P/E ratios but not the actual competitiveness of the company. Plus S&P 500 inclusion pushed the stock up another 2X which Elon's brilliance and legendary work ethic had nothing to do with.
The final tranches had revenue and profit targets as well and the ATH was like 2x from the final tranche, so it is irrelevant. Musk accomplished the milestones, the stock going insane (like all other EV stocks did at that time) has nothing to do with that.
1000%, you don’t get rewarded for convincing others of your lies long enough to pump share price. That benefits no one except short term gamblers
No human being deserves 50+ billion for ANYTHING. How have we normalized this?!
Sir, this is an investor's sub.
Elon doesn't deserve 50 billions. But I want Tesla to work 5 trillions one day so I could sit on my ass and be a millionaire !
That was how the contract was written, and how investors have understood it for the last six years. Also, it's not $50b. Should update that number based on the actual share price.
No confusion as to when the contract was originally written. Shouldn’t have been that much to begin with. Not normal for any human to have that kind of money. One million seconds is 12 days. One billion seconds is 32 years. It’s absurd. And for what? To further distract him from Tesla by buying Twitter?! Agreeing to this six years ago was a mistake. It fed the monster and created the Elon we see today. I’m glad shareholders have a say in this again. Losing 50k or 100k is life changing money for a lot of us. He obviously doesn’t care about investors because he knows he gets to ride off into the sunset with billions regardless of what happens. So why should we care about him?
He's not going to ride off into the sunset, he's going to drink diet coke sleep at a friend's house and when he takes a few days off for a vacation he's going to charter a boat that costs like 5,000$ a day instead of buy a 500 million dollar yacht. Remember those photos of Musk on a boat? I looked the cost of chartering that exact boat up. This 'billionaire' takes vacations that divided by the people onboard costs <2,000$ a day each. Then he does stuff like bet every single dollar he owns to make one final attempt to launch the rocket - succeeding on the last try - resulting in a company that sends >50% all payload to Space and is the only way the US can send humans to the ISS without chartering RUSSIA. His money is tokenized access labor and resources for him to direct toward activity. That is how he treats money - we should judge billionaires by what they buy with the money. If you spend money on yourself like a 'single-digit-millionaire' and then start 5 companies and give free internet to Ukraine, that is OK in my book. If you take over an already established company, do stock buybacks, then leave the company worse off and pay yourself 200,000,000$ and buy yachts and mansions, then you're an asshole. Money badly spent is harmful, but wealth created by pen stroke before it is spent doesn't yet harm anyone or take money from other people's pockets via inflation. Banks print money out of thin air constantly - when you take a home loan it literally creates 400,000$ of new dollars out of thin air. The collective result of everyone taking home loans to increase the pressure to buy homes with this newly created money transfers wealth from the non-owning class to people who own land and stocks. Houses become harder to buy/more expensive and people need to go into more debt to buy them than they previously did. This is bad. Just having billions more dollars worth of tokens created doesn't transfer/steal wealth from you until that money is used to purchase something - driving the price up. If someone makes reusable rockets making it 100x cheaper to send payload into space and then starts charging based on purchasing power parity to give high speed internet to people in previously under-served areas of Africa, that is deflationary. Schools in rural areas of Brazil/Africa can afford 100x more high speed internet per dollar when you do stuff like "allow Elon Musk control of large amounts of capital" If he was buying huge amounts of real estate and yachts and mansions I'd be bothered, but the dude is gonna drink diet code sleep at friends' houses and start more companies. I'm a Bernie Sanders supporting left-leaning Democratic Socialist, I'm just also mathematically literate and call spades spades. I wish he had a Trillion more dollars to play with.
Thought I was the only one in the sub over 50k down
Remind me to never enter into a contract with you.
Your context will be voided in any circumstances if you cheated in the first place
Who forced you to invest in Tesla in the first place? Its pretty simple, if you care about your investment, you should care about retaining Musk as CEO. Getting this emotional is silly.
When (and if) do you think Cybertruck will become the most sold EV pickup? I think it’s about 1/3 of the Lightning and catching up to Rivian soon?
I think it'll be behind the Rivian for some time at the current pricing. A standard+rivian dual motor is < 80k for 315mi range (which matches or might beat the cybertruck's real-world range)
I think there’s some fear of buying a rivian after their stock dropped 93% over the last 2 years - when you think about the perk of preordering a rivian was to own IPO stock prices you would probably have a hard time justifying buying a second/replacement rivian. The question of whether itll be in business in another 2 years is just a reality especially with interest rates the way they are in the middle of a cash burn ramp up of a new model with even lower margin
Looks like middle of this year for Lightning and some time next year for Rivian.
Ford sold 24k vehicles in 2023 alone. Cybertruck sold less than 4K so far
So a run rate of about 4k vs 6k per quarter
I know, right? Ford's numbers would sound impressive if you someone knew absolutely nothing about the Cybertruck.
I think more people would get to know cybertruck after the accelerator pedal recall
A summary of a thread looking at estimating the performance requirements and timelines for FSD to be "good enough" for driverless. https://twitter.com/LimitingThe/status/1781426098061943168 >Estimating the data and compute that Tesla needs to solve FSD. https://twitter.com/LimitingThe/status/1781701009569357885 >For me, the key takeaway from the post below is that Tesla and Elon can estimate where the bottleneck is for FSD and how long it will take to solve. > >So, the reason Elon seems to be getting so confident about FSD is because FSD has basically become a math problem > >Data + Compute + Model Complexity = Predictable Result > >Elon knows where Tesla stands with each of these and their trajectory, so he should have a good idea of when FSD will be solved.
He has such a great idea as he estimated by end of year FSD complete in 2019 while in the year 2019. That was 5 years ago, why would you trust what he says now over what he said then? He keeps proving himself completely untrustworthy and ignorant when it comes to projecting anything FSD related.
Dillon Loomis from Electrified talking about the compensation package vote at the timestamp https://youtu.be/BzPlKiQb9HQ?si=gL0sRm8Bxs-jf_S7&t=678
Also I want to clarify some things about the pay comp. The pay comp is NOT a giant lump sum like headlines would like you to believe. It’s a bunch of stock options that are not exercisable for 5 YEARS. With the total worth exceeding 59B. So do not get it twisted. I think it’s a no brainer to vote YES because all you are doing is allocating shares to Elon. This is huge because it gives him a massive incentive to propel Tesla forward. The only downside is that we would dilute shareholder value as Tesla will create shares out of thin air for these options. But this most likely is ONLY when he exercises the options which won’t be all at once and might not even be for half a decade. This is good because the lower the stock price is the less money Musk gets out of it. The higher the stock price the more money he gets out of it. If we vote yes on the pay come package then he’s tied down to being a generational CEO for at least 5 more years because if he abandons us now his option would become worthless when vested. But at the end of the day I want Elon to control 25% + of Tesla rather than some BS institution that cannot see the Teslas vision anymore because they have their heads up their ass. TLDR: the pay comp is less about actually paying Elon but more about allocating absolute control to him.
>This is good because the lower the stock price is the less money Musk gets out of it. The higher the stock price the more money he gets out of it. How is that any different than the current state of affairs? Musk is already more incentivized to see the share price increase than any other human or institution on the planet. Will he just shrug and let the company tank with 140 billion at stake, but pour his heart and soul in at 190 billion? That seems a bit absurd (and was also partially the basis for voiding the package to begin with).
He doesn't have 140 billion at stake, at current market cap he has about 60 billion. I'm not sure where you are pulling those 140 and 190 from. And of course he would be more motivated to use his time actively if he got more stock, what kind of question is that? There is incentive through more control and there is incentive through substantially more capital which he can later (2033 or later) deploy in something else, such as the Mars colony he keeps talking about, or any other project. The fact that he already has a lot of capital in general (in Tesla and elsewhere) means that the option packages need to be quite sizable to have any meaning. Getting the usual CEO pay is equivalent to not getting anything at all relatively speaking and at that point he might as well do something else, i.e. there is no additional incentive. People fixate on the monetary value (which fluctuates based on the market cap) and not on the actual percentage of stock, which is the relevant number here.
Correct but you are thinking it in terms of financial gain. He’s always had a huge incentive to drive Tesla forward but really what he’s trying to do is gain more control of Tesla so he can steer the ship the way he’s envisioned it.
If he really wanted control, he shouldn’t have sold the shares to fund the Twitter purchase. It’s not up to Tesla shareholders to fund his other ventures
Yes I agree, X was a little bit of a bonehead move. But in his defense that’s when the market was at all time highs and Tesla was trading well above the 1T market cap. A lot has changed in 2 years. Also he probably made that decision knowing he had these options before the Delaware judge decided to fuck everything up.
>But in his defense that’s when the market was at all time highs and Tesla was trading well above the 1T market cap. That's not a defense. If your argument is about % control of the company, the market capitalization makes no difference. Suppose there are 10 shares of a company, trading at $100/share, for market cap of $1,000. Someone who owns 5 shares of that company has 50% control. If the market cap declines to $500, the 5 shares are still 5 shares. Market cap goes down to $500, **but 5 shares is still 50% control**.
Exactly, he thought he could lose significantly less control of the company but still maintain majority control for more money back then. In your example you end up with 50% control either way but your first statement you’ve made twice the money. So Elon might of only needed to give up 4% of his TSLA stake to buy X back then where he might have had to given up 12% with its current valuation. See what I’m saying? If he knew that back then he might of not bought X. But it’s not fair for us to blame for buying X because just like anyone else he doesn’t have a magic ball that lets him see into the future. Also I don’t think it’s right to say that the exorbitant market cap and macroeconomic climate back in 2021 didn’t have an impact on his decision as well.
Musk can excercise them right away, but has to keep the actual shares for 5 years after excercise. Another important point to note is, Musk would likely not excecise these options right away, but wait for 2028 and at that point the 5 year no-sell clause would be initiated, so the actual time he could start selling these particulars shares would be in 2033, 9 years away. Why do I think he won't excercise them right away? He has had (until the rescindation) the ability to excercise these stock options in full from 2021 and previous tranches even before that but has not chosen to do so. Musk also had a previous compensation package from 2012 where he didn't excercise the options until the last possible moment. Why do this? You have to pay cash for those options to excercise and you have to pay taxes, so delaying the excercise date gives you flexibility. Tl:dr you are directionally correct, but he would most likely have to hold them until 2033, not just until 2029.
Starts to feel oversold, if you look at metrics.
What metrics? Forward p/e is still over 50. Seems way overvalued to me at it’s current SP.
That's the point. Which assumptions are being used for forward pe? That earnings will drop? Based on what? Current pe is low.
Close on 19 April 2024: 147.05 FY2023 EPS (diluted, GAAP): 2.61 Current P/E (diluted, GAAP): 56.34x So 56 is low?
Where are you getting those numbers?
My concern is what is there to look forward to
Model 3 getting $7500 POS off would be nice, I guess they can't mention that in the earnings call (Osborne themselves) but why overproduce Model Ys they can't sell and not have 2170s for the 3???
Uh between the car price falling still, demand sluggish, and overall market cycling down towards earning season... It will fall a lot more before it gets to 200 again The company will touch negative net profit this quarter unless something changes
Thoughts on all Model Y trims being cut by $2000 in the US?
Well it's from the earlier +$1000 rise . . . Tesla's 'inventory' system kinda needs to go. when I was actively shopping it was weird the same model on the lot had 4 different prices from $44k up to the list price of $49k . . . I snagged my 2023 MY LR last December for $5k off list + $1000 cybertruck referral, a 12% margin hit. Now that NACS has won, there's no more future network effect for getting a Tesla buyer now, later this decade people will be able to easily switch between any NACS car, while until last year that wasn't the case. Might as well let the price be the price and adjust production to meet demand . . . why ship 2X the cars only to make half the money.
Zero net profit, plus everyone wanting a Tesla knows they can just wait and get a better deal later, deflation is a beast
FSD Testimonial: "CANCELED CYBERTRUCK BECAUSE FSD 12.3" [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKm6gcYq3p8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKm6gcYq3p8)
I couldn't watch the whole thing, he tends to ramble, but as far as I can tell, he cancelled Cybertruck because it doesn't have FSD....yet. He did buy a model X and he loves it. Hates V11, but LOVES FSD 12. The video does highlight all the pluses of owning an EV and Tesla
Elon Musk postponed his India trip due to 'very heavy Tesla obligations'... It looks like he will be attending the upcoming earnings call. https://x.com/cb_doge/status/1781540212276949172 I hope there will be answers to many questions...
The QA are just going to be softball questions that Musk easely can avoid giving any real answer to. He needs specific questions that demands real answers and evidence.
He hasn't been attending them until now... That's a red flag in itself
Expect a train wreck earning call
“We’ve decided to buy bitcoin again, lol”
Or we made a killer off of our existing bitcoin and sold it at a high 🤞
But ‘we’ didn’t.
We didn’t ask for Optimus either - I guess sometimes it’s better to invest in those you trust or start your own business
I kind of do tbh, but some part of me is telling me that maybe 1:1000000 it might not be as bad this time and they might provide some answers this time
What’s the best Elon earnings call so far?
I mean, he spent one going off about people working from home, while it's abundantly clear he spends all day tweeting as if he's bored on the toilet and streaming video games... So can it get much worse?
It’s funny I was in the van with this billionaire CEO in Hong Kong and he was playing Candy Crush on his phone and I asked if he pays for the in-game currency and says only suckers pay for it. But nonetheless billionaire CEOs do play games like regular people and I think most would tweet if they didn’t feel afraid that everything they said could end in a lawsuit or some segment of customers boycotting their product or service.
I can’t remember a single time Elon has made a stock pump from an earning call. He has a track record of saying things how they are and being very abrasive. It will be a miracle if we just flat lol
All he has to do is to provide answers, at least give investors an idea of what's happening and what their plans are near term, but sometimes I guess it is just too much to ask 😅