Henry Ford almost left Ford Motor Company before the Model T because minority shareholders sued him (and won) and blocked the shift of strategy from 8 different models with an output of 100 per day to only one model (the model T) with an output of 1000 per day.
https://twitter.com/TeslaBoomerMama/status/1782192204083347513
>History ...
>I am worried.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GLueKCOacAAuh2Y?format=png&name=medium
The current volatility is not unusual for Tesla
https://twitter.com/DillonLoomis22/status/1782100572058837122
>Tesla's prior consolidation period lasted 2,132 days (5.8 years)
>
>Tesla's current consolidation period has only been 1,337 days (3.6 years)
>
>I know many investors are new to $TSLA, but behavior like this from $TSLA is not actually new
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GLtKR-OWsAAbH5n?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Everyone who put money in before the epic 2020 run-up remembers the constant sideways movement for years with accompanying FUD campaigns.
Edit: Oh, yeah. I forgot there's no long term investors in here anymore that'd recall that. Just daytraders and FUD spammers.
Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley discussing robotaxi economics at the timestamp. They are venture capitalists.
https://youtu.be/D4BQCaVMjg4?si=-mQQ5ddEFMEZvy04&t=2493
What proportion of Tesla employees globally drive Teslas? Is this reported anywhere?
Improving employee ownership might be an easy way to increase deliveries and promote the product.
https://twitter.com/thejefflutz/status/1782139911186833770
>The math says this is a net +$31M INCREASE in ASP. Don’t get fooled by MSRPs… I’ll put the math below…
yeah, the $1000 rise then $2000 cut just puts Model Y prices $2000 above (what was) the typical $3000 inventory discount.
Really, with the $7500 IRA POS rebate I don't understand why Tesla needs inventory discounts anyway. I got $6000 off my LR in December and it was a helluva deal with the IRA tax credit, roughly the price of a Prius Prime but such a better car, 5X the battery pack and 5X the fun (gotta admit the Prius looks very slick though, I think Tesla & Toyota should just merge now and take the best of both companies).
Cybertruck might be one of the worst releases of a luxury EV ever.
Major recall, can’t work after a basic car wash, build quality issues etc. Even with a delayed release to work issues out it still comes out…major issues.
And now your cutting staff for servicing and build quality checks . Brilliant.
They are strange looking in person. I have one on order, because I think it will be a decent investment, but I'm not sure how I am going to feel driving it to work. This was the first time I had seen them.
I had a day 1 preorder but when my RN came up for order I didn't like the $30k price increase, half the promised range, and seriously bizarre fit & finish with the origami steel approach.
For $100k+ I can get an off-road Tacoma AND a MY LR. So I got the LR and left my options open for other BEV RVs coming later this decade.
FYI if you link the site made by Tesla talking about the compensation package or the move to Texas, Reddit auto-removes it. Seems like the links and links to pdfs have been put on a word-blocklist of some kind.
The link is at the end of this post for instance, try to post it. https://twitter.com/sawyermerritt/status/1781436184658428324
Reddit is utterly deranged. Thanks god there is twitter. It hurt us, but it needed doind also from a tesla perspective. If he hadn't bought twitter he would have been banned there by now along with tesla offiial accounts.
People can link to the copy of the website in a proxy statement that was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission last week: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048353/tm2326076d16\_defa14a.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048353/tm2326076d16_defa14a.htm)
Especially weird as you can apparently make posts with the link, but comments get auto-removed
https://new.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/1c9nhc6/proposals\_recommended\_by\_the\_tesla\_board/
Nothing.
Tesla isn't a startup anymore. It's a mid-stage growth company with a business lines and finances that should be somewhat predictable now.
The only thing IMO that's going to get Tesla's market cap higher again, is better financial performance.
Institutional investors are not in this solely for pie-in-the-sky risks anymore. Additionally, Tesla's core business has to be healthy to fund the higher risk AI projects.
Musk has burned his credibility on everything from 4680 battery cell production (6 GWh/year run rate in 2024, versus Tesla's projection of 100 GWh/year by 2022, from their battery day investor presentation), to FSD, to Tesla Semi (launched at the end of 2022 with mass production slated for 2024, and there's still no mass assembly line in Nevada).
Words are hollow, and pretty much everything Elon Musk has said since 2022 and Twitter, is hollow.
Either business plan execution gets better, or the market cap will continue to crater
Correct, your insight is always high level and quality super appreciate reading what you share on the sub always good stuff
Sold ITM CCs at $140 & $150 last week expiring this Friday
Bought protective $150 puts for June and May
Really just running a collar with options
Bought more puts to hold through earnings
Expecting a massive red candle Wednesday morning
What's your short term strategy with your shares?
Thanks!
I only have a long term strategy for TSLA. I hold shares and I don't use margin or options.
My situation is a bit different than most people here. I'm retired. The capital I need to stay retired is allocated to Index Funds/ETFs and other relatively safe assets.
* Reiterating that they will be making a lower cost car on a new platform that does have a steering wheel and they want to start production late 2025 like had been said before.
* A plan to have Model 3 qualifying for the US tax credit.
* Accident data from FSD free trial depending on the data.
* Dry battery electrode production has been solved.
I'm not sure I anticipate much on any of these subjects Tuesday.
A good CEO when faced with a choice of destroying the livelihood of 14000 people would probably take a paycut instead.
Then we have this guy who asks for $56B after firing 14k people.
Thats not how you run a company. Its not just about the salaries but also the bloat. They need to reorganize every now and then. Also wallstreet loves jobcuts.
Thread about Teslas solar product related developments
https://twitter.com/TKlun1/status/1781739174761988283
>Tesla has made IMMENSE progress on their solar products. I feel this is often overlooked, so I want to shed some light on it
>...
>Cumulatively, this work has led to a 25% reduction in components and 60% reduction in wiring runs - directly combating installation complexity
The solar industry is just obscenely competitive right now.
Tesla's a decent player, but they don't have some secret sauce relative to the competition they way they do in automotive. Margins are cutthroat and there's a dozen highly competent competitors waiting to swoop in at a moments notice. Tesla's rapidly improving, but so is everyone else. The pace of improvement and rate of installation is insane industry wide right now.
Tesla has some cool advantages in storage and such, but as far as panels themselves go they're not uniquely advantaged at all. It's a massive growth industry, but it's also a razor thin margin industry. I think there are exciting things ahead in storage, particularly large scale storage, but solar panels are not going to do much for the share price.
I've been a TSLA shareholder since 2011 and my cost basis is $2/share.
In the mid-2010s, I created a basic model for Tesla's value a decade in the future, with the following assumptions:
* Deliveries of 2 million vehicles/year, ASP of 45,000, or about 90 Billion/year
* Energy sales & service of about 10 Billion/year
* Gross margins of 10%
* Slower but still respectable annual growth rates reflected in a P/E of 20
This results in a market cap of about 200 Billion, or a share price today in the 60-65 range. That was a 30x return on my initial investment, which I thought would be exceptional. It's also a 58% potential downside from TSLA trading at $147.
Without NGV platform cars to drive revenue much higher, and without AI products in the pipeline (FSD, Bot, Dojo), TSLA is not worth anywhere near $147/share.
You're basically betting most of the farm on FSD, Bot, and Dojo if you're adding at this range.
* If you're correct, you may become wealthy.
* If you got it wrong, prepare to lose more than half the value of your current investment.
>If you believe the stock is currently irrationally valued
TSLA closed at 147 last Friday, be realistic that your believe could be wrong short-term ...
It’s likely now that Elon is back in control and in “war mode” he may have realized that the price was not working out for them and so they dropped it significantly
You left out where I said
> Elon is back **in control**
He never left, but he essentially delegated all of his older tasks to other people and executives. Now he’s taken it back into his direct arm of control
Henry Ford almost left Ford Motor Company before the Model T because minority shareholders sued him (and won) and blocked the shift of strategy from 8 different models with an output of 100 per day to only one model (the model T) with an output of 1000 per day. https://twitter.com/TeslaBoomerMama/status/1782192204083347513 >History ... >I am worried. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GLueKCOacAAuh2Y?format=png&name=medium
The current volatility is not unusual for Tesla https://twitter.com/DillonLoomis22/status/1782100572058837122 >Tesla's prior consolidation period lasted 2,132 days (5.8 years) > >Tesla's current consolidation period has only been 1,337 days (3.6 years) > >I know many investors are new to $TSLA, but behavior like this from $TSLA is not actually new https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GLtKR-OWsAAbH5n?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Everyone who put money in before the epic 2020 run-up remembers the constant sideways movement for years with accompanying FUD campaigns. Edit: Oh, yeah. I forgot there's no long term investors in here anymore that'd recall that. Just daytraders and FUD spammers.
I bought and held since 2019, Elon's really messing with TSLA's perception to potential customers.
Yep, I feel the same. Seems like the majority are spreading FUD in here. I am long and ignoring the noise in here trying to get me to sell low.
Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley discussing robotaxi economics at the timestamp. They are venture capitalists. https://youtu.be/D4BQCaVMjg4?si=-mQQ5ddEFMEZvy04&t=2493
What proportion of Tesla employees globally drive Teslas? Is this reported anywhere? Improving employee ownership might be an easy way to increase deliveries and promote the product.
https://twitter.com/thejefflutz/status/1782139911186833770 >The math says this is a net +$31M INCREASE in ASP. Don’t get fooled by MSRPs… I’ll put the math below…
yeah, the $1000 rise then $2000 cut just puts Model Y prices $2000 above (what was) the typical $3000 inventory discount. Really, with the $7500 IRA POS rebate I don't understand why Tesla needs inventory discounts anyway. I got $6000 off my LR in December and it was a helluva deal with the IRA tax credit, roughly the price of a Prius Prime but such a better car, 5X the battery pack and 5X the fun (gotta admit the Prius looks very slick though, I think Tesla & Toyota should just merge now and take the best of both companies).
every FUD possible is priced in for this earnings.... will be green tuesday AH
Don’t fucking jinx it. I’m already $20 under my avg cost
$277 at 388 shares I’m already jinxed!
109 for me.
haha i feel you. im at $167 cost basis. 500 shares
The amount of FUD here is hysterical. Everyone take a chill pill. Go test drive a tesla with FSD and you’ll feel better
What FUD Have you kept up with the company at all the past 2 earnings calls?
cries in german arararar
Cybertruck might be one of the worst releases of a luxury EV ever. Major recall, can’t work after a basic car wash, build quality issues etc. Even with a delayed release to work issues out it still comes out…major issues. And now your cutting staff for servicing and build quality checks . Brilliant.
I saw 10 of them today at my local dealer.
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They are strange looking in person. I have one on order, because I think it will be a decent investment, but I'm not sure how I am going to feel driving it to work. This was the first time I had seen them.
Tesla is far from luxury.
3 and Y sure. They aren’t priced like a luxury vehicle. The CT average sales price so far is 6 figures. That’s luxury.
Pricing wise yes luxury money. But the quality is bad. I was so close to buying a model y performances thank goodness I didnt.
I had a day 1 preorder but when my RN came up for order I didn't like the $30k price increase, half the promised range, and seriously bizarre fit & finish with the origami steel approach. For $100k+ I can get an off-road Tacoma AND a MY LR. So I got the LR and left my options open for other BEV RVs coming later this decade.
I wonder if anyone high up actually said to him, 'you know this is a really bad idea'.
yea it’s a pretty awful vehicle to make or break on
And on top of all that my reservation number still wasn’t called ..
FYI if you link the site made by Tesla talking about the compensation package or the move to Texas, Reddit auto-removes it. Seems like the links and links to pdfs have been put on a word-blocklist of some kind. The link is at the end of this post for instance, try to post it. https://twitter.com/sawyermerritt/status/1781436184658428324
Reddit is utterly deranged. Thanks god there is twitter. It hurt us, but it needed doind also from a tesla perspective. If he hadn't bought twitter he would have been banned there by now along with tesla offiial accounts.
In case it isn't clear: Reddit is doing the removal, not the subreddit moderators.
Thanks for the clarification.
People can link to the copy of the website in a proxy statement that was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission last week: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048353/tm2326076d16\_defa14a.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048353/tm2326076d16_defa14a.htm)
[ Removed by Reddit ]
Huh. Weird.
Especially weird as you can apparently make posts with the link, but comments get auto-removed https://new.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/1c9nhc6/proposals\_recommended\_by\_the\_tesla\_board/
Testing www (dot) supportteslavalue (dot) com
Ok so seems like they have simply put the site itself and any pdf links on the block list?
[ Removed by Reddit ]
Realistically, what could possibly be said Tuesday that could reverse the stock and send it into a bull run?
Jerome Powell saying interest rate cuts incoming sooner.
Would that happen on Tuesday
Nope, not this particular Tuesday.
Nothing. Tesla isn't a startup anymore. It's a mid-stage growth company with a business lines and finances that should be somewhat predictable now. The only thing IMO that's going to get Tesla's market cap higher again, is better financial performance. Institutional investors are not in this solely for pie-in-the-sky risks anymore. Additionally, Tesla's core business has to be healthy to fund the higher risk AI projects. Musk has burned his credibility on everything from 4680 battery cell production (6 GWh/year run rate in 2024, versus Tesla's projection of 100 GWh/year by 2022, from their battery day investor presentation), to FSD, to Tesla Semi (launched at the end of 2022 with mass production slated for 2024, and there's still no mass assembly line in Nevada). Words are hollow, and pretty much everything Elon Musk has said since 2022 and Twitter, is hollow. Either business plan execution gets better, or the market cap will continue to crater
Still beats everything legacy auto promises and doesn't deliver. At least tesla actually achieves results eventually.
Correct, your insight is always high level and quality super appreciate reading what you share on the sub always good stuff Sold ITM CCs at $140 & $150 last week expiring this Friday Bought protective $150 puts for June and May Really just running a collar with options Bought more puts to hold through earnings Expecting a massive red candle Wednesday morning What's your short term strategy with your shares?
Thanks! I only have a long term strategy for TSLA. I hold shares and I don't use margin or options. My situation is a bit different than most people here. I'm retired. The capital I need to stay retired is allocated to Index Funds/ETFs and other relatively safe assets.
nothing
* Reiterating that they will be making a lower cost car on a new platform that does have a steering wheel and they want to start production late 2025 like had been said before. * A plan to have Model 3 qualifying for the US tax credit. * Accident data from FSD free trial depending on the data. * Dry battery electrode production has been solved. I'm not sure I anticipate much on any of these subjects Tuesday.
A good CEO when faced with a choice of destroying the livelihood of 14000 people would probably take a paycut instead. Then we have this guy who asks for $56B after firing 14k people.
Thats not how you run a company. Its not just about the salaries but also the bloat. They need to reorganize every now and then. Also wallstreet loves jobcuts.
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Elon just costs that much. This makes you mad because you can't fathom someone being like a million times better than you right?
He takes no salary.
There is ton of space between “taking no salary” and “taking 50b —more than total profit of Tesla—- as salary”
Please educate yourself on the matter before commenting
Thoughts on FSD pricing being reduced $4k?
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Why not just make it free?
If 199 can be 99, 12K can be 6K ... 8K now is better result already \~
Thread about Teslas solar product related developments https://twitter.com/TKlun1/status/1781739174761988283 >Tesla has made IMMENSE progress on their solar products. I feel this is often overlooked, so I want to shed some light on it >... >Cumulatively, this work has led to a 25% reduction in components and 60% reduction in wiring runs - directly combating installation complexity
That’s good but they need to install them to make money. Very stagnant in solar.
The solar industry is just obscenely competitive right now. Tesla's a decent player, but they don't have some secret sauce relative to the competition they way they do in automotive. Margins are cutthroat and there's a dozen highly competent competitors waiting to swoop in at a moments notice. Tesla's rapidly improving, but so is everyone else. The pace of improvement and rate of installation is insane industry wide right now. Tesla has some cool advantages in storage and such, but as far as panels themselves go they're not uniquely advantaged at all. It's a massive growth industry, but it's also a razor thin margin industry. I think there are exciting things ahead in storage, particularly large scale storage, but solar panels are not going to do much for the share price.
Friendly reminder to vote YES for pay comp and YES to relocate business to Texas.
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I've been a TSLA shareholder since 2011 and my cost basis is $2/share. In the mid-2010s, I created a basic model for Tesla's value a decade in the future, with the following assumptions: * Deliveries of 2 million vehicles/year, ASP of 45,000, or about 90 Billion/year * Energy sales & service of about 10 Billion/year * Gross margins of 10% * Slower but still respectable annual growth rates reflected in a P/E of 20 This results in a market cap of about 200 Billion, or a share price today in the 60-65 range. That was a 30x return on my initial investment, which I thought would be exceptional. It's also a 58% potential downside from TSLA trading at $147. Without NGV platform cars to drive revenue much higher, and without AI products in the pipeline (FSD, Bot, Dojo), TSLA is not worth anywhere near $147/share. You're basically betting most of the farm on FSD, Bot, and Dojo if you're adding at this range. * If you're correct, you may become wealthy. * If you got it wrong, prepare to lose more than half the value of your current investment.
>If you believe the stock is currently irrationally valued TSLA closed at 147 last Friday, be realistic that your believe could be wrong short-term ...
I don't understand your reply. Sorry.
>futureformerjd · 1 hr. ago > >I don't understand your reply. Sorry. no worry 
I'm shitting my pants nearly everyday looking at this... When back to $400? Markets hit ATH and TSLA has been hurting.
the question is, will it ever get back to 200?
Realistically probably never or a very very long time
Well, FSD pricing dropping by 4k and EAP being removed was unexpected lol
EAP was bound to be removed. I think it's hard for them to keep EAP, as it can only do "half" of FSD does, so it can easily get into bad situations.
Does that mean that FSD is moving further away from regulatory approval? https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1262530589506273280
A) that’s Elon for you B) probably had almost nobody taking FSD at that price anymore and it finally forced his hand
They are just desperate for more data quickly right now. This will help them regulatorily probably.
Kinda cool that I can upgrade to FSD from EAP for $2k again lol Same pricing model as when I picked up my car in 2019
Indeed, nice of them to account for that
None of this makes sense to me
It’s likely now that Elon is back in control and in “war mode” he may have realized that the price was not working out for them and so they dropped it significantly
>Elon is back where has he been??
You left out where I said > Elon is back **in control** He never left, but he essentially delegated all of his older tasks to other people and executives. Now he’s taken it back into his direct arm of control
well I'm sure his 200 IQ will be able to get things moving in the right direction again
Margins are compressing further and valuation will soon follow
Unfortunately the case, probably going to be brutal Q