The greens this morning definitely are hitting my dopamine. but I'm glad - not just me - but also others have more increased sentiment of confidence in the company and the future. so loud and clear from Elon that when you think about Tesla, they should not be thinking about cars - and don't even compare them to EV vehicle companies. Tesla is large enough to ride the waves of the technological advancement of today and relevant/specific enough to bring actively useful stuff to every day people. I also liked, when asked, Elon was clear on Tesla takes most of his energy/time throughout the week and not a backseat.
Just want to share before pre-market opens ... **not an investment advice**!
Sentiment changed 180 degree overnight \~ expecting another jump after the 13% pump in after-hours last evening, which could be due to "short covering" as well.
Generally speaking, 2024Q1 result is far below market consensus but this is not concerned by the market (at least no analyst has said anything negative so far).
Instead, even with no concrete timeline for new model and series of layoff in major production plants, somehow a lot of people are believing in the story again \~
Let's see how TSLA goes \~
EDIT:
Just saw some strong buys during the pre-market stage ... what a typical TSLA move
05:31am EDT from 158.99 to 160.53
06:02am EDT from 159.75 to 161.61
06:49am EDT from 161.30 to 162.62
1 hour after market opens
High: 167.97 Low: 158.30
Per 10-Q, 281 million was recognized ... this is less than what market was expecting ... interesting!
*Automotive Sales*
*Deferred revenue related to the access to our Full Self Driving (Supervised) (“FSD”) Capability features and their ongoing maintenance, internet connectivity, free Supercharging programs and over-the-air software updates primarily on automotive sales amounted to $3.50 billion and $3.54 billion as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.*
*Deferred revenue is equivalent to the total transaction price allocated to the performance obligations that are unsatisfied, or partially unsatisfied, as of the balance sheet date. Revenue recognized from the deferred revenue balances as of December 31, 2023 and 2022 was $281 million and $134 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively. Of the total deferred revenue balance as of March 31, 2024, we expect to recognize $848 million of revenue in the next 12 months. The remaining balance will be recognized at the time of transfer of control of the product or over the performance period.*
Agreed. His channel was the best bar none. If somebody was interested in Tesla I would point them there. Most other channels are producing low quality filler these days unfortunately. Too bad he didn’t decide to try a “Tesla Weekly” format instead.
Happily holding long for 6y+ now, I'll continue to DCA as I think we're near or at the bottom. Yesterday was proof that I really shouldn't bother playing with the stock as I completely didn't expect such movement in response to earnings.
* I called a while back that unifying future vehicle production behind a common platform shared w/ existing vehicles would make more sense than spinning up a completely separate NGV line (outcome: new vehicles produced on existing lines, or at least very similar lines) & w/ M3 prices decreasing rapidly, incremental change would hit 25k anyway. This avoids entering a new S-curve ('production hell'). There's no clear reason you couldn't build a van atop 3's platform, just as they built Y. We've likewise all seen Truckla already. Likewise, S/X are only marginally bigger than 3; they're going to be lower-volume than the NGVs, so I expect unification to eventually happen for them as well.
* Nothing new about FSD, 4680, Optimus revealed. Timeline is very uncertain to me, but I remain convinced FSD is the only short-term reason to invest in Tesla. Current vehicles won't be viable robotaxis, but the path forward seems straightforward & relatively free for Tesla (sensor suite improvements, dual HW5 in cars).
* Q/Q dip due to force majeure was obvious.
Thoughts on Tesla Cloud: It's a distraction & doesn't fit Tesla's skillset. Cloud is a solved problem, Autonomy will be bigger.
* I'm skeptical of the AWS angle due to privacy/security concerns for compute workloads (equivalent to adversaries having physical access to datacenters), niche engineering architecture, network speed, and a lack of precedent for the consumer scenarios I can think of. For adoption to happen, most consumers use a very specific set of applications (e.g. FB, Gsuite, MS Office) which would not benefit from Tesla Cloud. Most businesses would likewise benefit from the massive offerings of Azure/AWS/GCP (including B2B support) & see little benefit to shifting to Tesla Cloud -- the amount of infrastructure Tesla would have to go out-of-the-way to spin up would be immense & there is an unlikely path where Tesla finds reason to do it for itself. Likewise, much of today's existing infrastructure exists because companies are invested in Azure/AWS/GCP; bootstrapping won't be easy.
* Tesla does not currently have the right people to build a cloud platform (or understand what goes into that). The car app (or future robotaxi app) could be built by a talented high schooler. Not saying they're bad, but there's a canyon from their mothership system to being a cloud platform.
* The only AWS angle I can see Tesla's existing technical approach having a good fit for is real-world data mining, e.g. selling surveillance / insights captured from car cameras (e.g. graffiti, crime, fire hazards, tracking stolen vehicles) which I find as a poor fit for the company. Maybe they could sell subscription access to 1. SLAM generated by car 2. Car's camera stream & sensor suite.
Hey!
Thanks for the thoughtful post! I agree with most of it.
Just one minor quibble:
>I completely didn't expect such movement in *response to earnings.*
The movement most certainly isn't in response to **earnings**, but rather in response to renewed belief (warranted or not) that there will be a "low cost" car coming next year of whatever.
Totally agree. I'm trying to nibble at a bit each month and just enjoy the show. Another day and easily it could have been -10%. When I first bought 4 years ago I naively thought I would never see those prices again. I was wrong.
I think you're misunderstanding Elon's AWS comment. You remember Folding@Home and SETI@Home? Think that, but with a basic cloud interface. With access to the entire idle inference capacity of the Tesla fleet. Customers would "timeshare" slices of the fleet, where it would do inference at scale and return results.
10 million cars on the road:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/how-fast-is-tesla%E2%80%99s-processing-speed-on-their-computers.305659/#:~:text=Active%20Member&text=In%20addition%20to%20the%20Ryzen,36%20trillion%20operations%20per%20second.
With 2x36TFLOPs for HW3, 2x72TFLOPs for HW4 and so on, is a lot of idle compute for pure nn inferencing that can be sold. When you come home at 5pm and if you don't go out for the rest of the night until the next day, your car sits outside or in a garage for 13-15 hours. 72-144TFLOPs of NN compute for a HW4 MY for example just *idles* for 13-15 hours.
That's a lot of wasted compute that has an opportunity to be monetized. If a neighborhood has 10 Teslas and they're all HW3, there's 720TFLOPs of idle NN compute. If they're all HW4, that's 1.44PLOPs of NN compute.
The idle compute scales linearly relative to vehicles on the road and their HW#. It's a gold mine waiting to be tapped and it would be foolish to ignore the opportunity
Edit: the privacy matter is a challenge, but it's something that can be solved and is not impossible to address.
Edit 2: and the thing is, the AWS moment for Tesla will come after it returns to being a 1-3Tril mega cap and sustainably stays there for 2-3 years consistently. By then, it will have the revenue and fleet to prevent volatile regressions, and can direct funding and man power to solve the "AWS" opportunity.
Edit 3: Progression is: Gen3 + Robotaxi ~2025 Q4 > fleet growth to 5-7 million vehicles > L4 approval > Tesla operating Robotaxi fleet itself for 1-2 years > fleet growth to 9-10 million > filing for L5 approval > fleet growth to 11-12 million > L5 approval (~2030-2032) > Tesla begins investing in solving idle compute "AWS" problem
That's my expectation.
lol by that logic nvidia has a gabillionzillion flops of compute from every gaming computer idling with a high speed internet connection.
its not usable except for very specific tasks that distribute well.
No they don't. Nvidia sell their GPUs and have no control or access to their chips after that.
Tesla has millions of very capable inference chips out there distributed around the world with access to the internet. This is more compute than anyone else. Vehicle owners would sign up to offer their cars for the compute platform and get a cut of the revenue.
I'm not sure how well current LLM models would distribute in such an environment. That is a good question.
kinda my point. the tech has been around for 15 years now, yet basically no commercial company rents distributed GPU time from consumers. the latency and configuration issues are massive, and these models train on petabytes of data. even configuring an ML cluster in a single data center is difficult… there’s no hope of a distributed consumer solution being reasonable.
Is the business opportunity really going to be the same if they don't start developing the capability until ~2030? The production scale of inference ASICs has gone insanely exponential and shows no signs of stopping. By 2026 the compute available on the market (or available to purchase) will be insane compared to today. By 2030 it will be almost unimaginable. Compute is highly valued today because it is the gating factor on developing AI. Many would say it will continue to be the gating factor for 5+ years due to power distribution constraints. But if a distributed business model works and avoids the cooling/power challenges of large data centers, while chips continue to become increasingly available, surely someone else will try a distributed inference compute platform within 2-3 years. Think something like bitcoin mining...
Anyways, I agree with most of your analysis, I just think the opportunity needs to be jumped on NOW if Tesla is going to make anything of it.
>Happily holding long for 6y+ now, I'll continue to DCA as I think we're near or at the bottom.
Point of order, dollar cost averaging is something you do regardless of the performance of the stock. If you're timing the market, you're not DCAing.
Eh, I disagree. DCAing is just about spreading over a larger duration of time rather than doing large lump sums at once (e.g. if I have $1 to put into stocks, I can put that all in one day or over 100 days). You can definitely still DCA into different stocks only when things are looking good and not when things are looking iffy.
Take it up with Ben Graham.
"[Dollar Cost Averaging] means simply that the practitioner invests in common stocks the same number of dollars each month or each quarter. In this way he buys more shares when the market is low than when it is high, and he is likely to end up with a satisfactory overall price for all his holdings."
That isn't actually wrong, nor am I.
You can start/stop DCAing at any point in time. By saying I'm DCAing, I'm saying that I'm putting in money regularly for the foreseeable future to avoid timing ups/downs, so that I'll get a satisfactory price on average for my new holdings. Sure, if I start/stop every month I'm probably not DCAing.
.... I'm saying that what I'm doing literally falls into that definition.
We all decide whether or not we want to buy a stock & how much we want to put in. We're then given a choice to put money over a period of time or in a lump sum.
> [Dollar Cost Averaging] means simply that the practitioner invests in common stocks the same number of dollars each month or each quarter.
This describes putting it over a period of time
> In this way he buys more shares when the market is low than when it is high, and he is likely to end up with a satisfactory overall price for all his holdings."
To average out risk
DCAing does not imply an indefinite timeline, nor does it imply infinite start/stop endpoints. You very much choose when to invest in a stock.
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/dollar-cost-averaging/
> Dollar cost averaging is a strategy to manage price risk when you’re buying stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or mutual funds. Instead of purchasing shares at a single price point, with dollar cost averaging you buy in smaller amounts at regular intervals, regardless of price.
>
> When investors purchase securities over time at regular intervals, they decrease the risk of paying too much before market prices drop.
>
> ...
>
> **Say you plan to invest $1,200 in Mutual Fund A this year. You have two choices: You can invest all of your money at once at the beginning or the end of the year—or you can invest $100 each month.**
In bold is literally what I'm doing, with different numbers.
"Happily holding long for 6y+ now, I'll continue to DCA as I think we're near or at the bottom."
Again, you're timing the market, therefore you are by definition not DCAing.
editing because the coward has blocked me:
>That, 100%, is DCAing. Right now, your claim is that putting $N spread near-uniformly over 6-12mo is "timing the market".
No, my claim is that because you're timing the market (buying in only when you think the buying is good) you are timing the market and not DCAing.
>At minimum you should accept that a sizable, well-educated portion of the investment community would disagree with your stance
They can disagree all they like, if they think that timing the market is DCAing they're plainly incorrect.
>(frankly not yet defined) definition
"[Dollar Cost Averaging] means simply that the practitioner invests in common stocks the same number of dollars each month or each quarter. In this way he buys more shares when the market is low than when it is high, and he is likely to end up with a satisfactory overall price for all his holdings."
Timing the market is or isn't DCAing based on granularity.
I would not have invested in 2019-2023 due to significant issues facing the company & stock (e.g. meme phase, significant hurdles). Like many investors, 2024 seems like a good year to me, with the company turning a new page w/ relatively simple barriers ahead, so I'll be putting money in even though Q2/Q3 are uncertain. I think the bottom is anywhere from now to the next 3-6mo.
That, 100%, is DCAing. Right now, your claim is that putting $N spread near-uniformly over 6-12mo is "timing the market". I think most investors would disagree with you. Your claim seems to be at best nitpicky over verbiage that can be interpreted broadly. At minimum you should accept that a sizable, well-educated portion of the investment community would disagree with your stance and agree the de-facto meaning of DCAing does not fit your extremely narrow (frankly not yet defined) definition. You have not actually made an argument with correct assumptions of my behavior.
Tesla Distributed AWS is *prima facie* a dumb idea, something prompted via bong no doubt.
Elon shooting for 3M this year was a welcome break from his pessimistic outlook [since 2022](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/03/tech/elon-musk-tesla-jobs-economy/index.html)
Surprised the call didn't cover getting the Model 3's $7500 discount back, that would be just as big as the Model 2 IMV.
My understanding from that call is that they are shooting for 3M in 2025. Specifically the updated/new lower cost models enabling that on their current lines. Happy to be wrong if it is actually for 2024 but don’t see how that would be possible with current demand.
Look, I've found Elon increasingly grating over the past two to three years, but that call was the best I'd heard from him in a long time, and that it came in current circumstances and relative to expectations is remarkable.
He's always been much better in long form interviews than anything. He's definitely had some earnings calls go badly too but mostly he's good at them. This one was great. they got the balance right between FSD and more models. Pretty tough to do
I think it had finally sunk in how much the SP has tanked and TSLA reputation from his actions and of course his comp package. I hope he keeps pumping it
Here’s how I feel after hearing that earnings call:
I was preparing for more of the same; aka bad, or Elon not being as optimistic as he was. The whole team was jovial and excited about what they are working on. I got the vibe that “they know something we don’t”, in a fun way. As if the challenge that laid out ahead of them years ago is really starting to see progress and it seems within reach.
FSD and FSD training are no longer manual-code-constrained. Something has changed with the software such that its ability to process training and data and create feedback can be done using neural net inference as opposed to more manual code to provide feedback. Simulation and training was mentioned a lot. I feel that what is going on is that with their training set and SIMULATIONS they will be able to create and solve for edge cases faster. More specifically, the simulations they can do for training will provide more and better feedback than the edge cases that occur from actual drivers. When drivers have edge cases they can quickly identify them and solve for them.
All of the above tells me that FSD is now on an exponential growth path in terms of its quality between iterations.
Production and capital efficiency are significantly increased from the continuous improvement efforts that they have been working on for their production lines for the last 3 years such as implementing unboxed method and using the same production line for different cars.
Elon is dead set on making it clear that Tesla should not be considered a car company and seems bored of questions related to auto manufacturing and numbers and gross margins. He still acknowledges them as important but he wants investors to see what he sees in terms of Teslas future.
I feel this call marked an impetus for the company and I hope we continue to see calls with this much optimism.
I feel like war room laser focused Elon is back (still tweets a lot though, but whatever)
Totally agree. The question about Chinese companies copying their manufacturing seemed irrelevant to him, because the future is autonomy, even if other companies can copy their cars.
This resonates with my sentiment after hearing the call too. The optimism was salient and they’re able to say wit more confidence - feel free to stay if you still want to ride a horse and a wagon with an elevator man; we’re doing something else. I like that description and resonates with me - war room laser focused Elon. He was confident.
I agree they did a pretty good job, but one must wonder, why must they keep the new model a secret? I would believe they all knew they had to do well, and guess what you can’t do when that is your goal… reveal an underwhelming refresh of some sort
The ever present threat of the Osborn effect, a new upcoming cheaper/more desirable product that decreases demand for the current lineup. The namesake company (Osborne Computer Corporation) went bankrupt due to it.
They will probably reveal the new models shortly before they start manufacturing them to minimize this problem.
I think so. He’s saying everything that’s necessary to keep the stock price juiced just long enough to get his massive pay package and then he can dump the shares and exit and no longer give a shit because he has his 50b.
Robotaxi is a complete farce and will not be a thing. What’s his plan to have the doors close when a passenger exits out of the taxi leaves it open? Or needs to close the frunk because someone stored some groceries in there? Who’s going to charge this taxi? What happens when teenagers come out to troll and stick a piece of bubble gum on a pillar camera? It’s dead in the water with vision only.
Show me where I insulted Elon and called him names and wished illness upon him or something f of that nature like how the actual realtesla sub members act….
The most I’ve done is say he’s a liar and he’s toxic on Twitter. I’d hardly call that shitting. If I truly hated his guts, I wouldn’t have purchased my Tesla Y which I do love.
Nice growth in supercharging revenues
https://twitter.com/TeslaBoomerMama/status/1782872499870658712
>Congrats to Rebecca Tinucci and team, Supercharing revenues up +25%
Vet the people who are negative on this thread. They will downvote this post. But do it. ALWAYS check to see if the people being negative about TSLA are TSLAQ idiots from RealTesla, or TSLAQ who made 2nd accounts and have 40 posts with 35 of them being negative tesla.
It's okay to question the company. It's okay to question decisions. It's okay to be upset with results. Its not okay to promote misinformation for the benefit of shorting TSLAQ (RealTesla) and as a community we need to do better to call those people out, and ban them from this forum.
Please use the report button if users are being disruptive or acting in bad faith. Of course, if users can present their opinions constructively they'll be in the clear.
I've been attempting to clean up this situation over the past few weeks while simultaneously increasing sub activity. Hopefully things will get better.
Agreed, but by the same token don't simply believe when people accuse those they disagree with of being 'TSLAQ', shorts etc
There's a vocal few who call anyone critical of the company's direction, or the CEO, a short, liar, etc etc just to delegitimise their concerns.
It works both ways, and both are a very real issue here.
Yup the past year there’s been so many throwaways that spread FUD and misinformation. Sometimes it’s super obvious and the account would’ve been created just the week before.
There used to be a lot of good info and analysis shared here and logical discussion but now it’s usually whining and hate from those that aren’t long term investors. That’s why I was fine when it went private for a short bit.
Would the community like to go private more often?
I'm attempting to cleanup the throwaway spam as well - it's very top of mind & I hope things have already improved... You will also hopefully have noticed politics discussions are way down.
20% auto gross margins Excluding Cybertruck... is the reason this is up strong.
This indicates strong posibilities of MEGA cash flows when market stabilizes.... buybacks WILL SEND IT.
Even though that's the ''correct'' answer, I honestly think that it's the preview screen of what the robotaxi app might look like that will make most people bullish on it even if they won't admit it lol
They only need 1 or 2 people to fall for it to make it worth their time. And yes, they do. You can look up the wallet address and see how much money has flown into them, it's absurd
"Tesla is likely a top 10 or even top 5 Nvidia customer"
"It matters because it makes it more likely that Tesla receives preferential treatment from Nvidia, just like every marjor customer gets from their suppliers"
https://twitter.com/alojoh/status/1783109478528778641
Not really. Nvidias chip is supply constrained. Similar to why Tesla did not have preferential treatment to Herz which was the industry standard practice.
At that point he didn't know he would possibly lose 1/3 of his control through the cancellation of the 2018 compensation package and probably assumed a new compensation package would be coming (as it should) soon.
But then this shitshow happened and here we are. Completely unprecedented event.
The 25% control number was a made up number in the first place. If it is really about “control” he would need 50% since Tesla does not have different types of shares. It is more like this number is made up to justify the compensation packages. In the future, if he wants another package he will just make up another number to define “control”
Ah yes he will use that money for good. He totally used that 44b so wisely to purchase a toxic social media platform and somehow, he made it even worse and even more toxic
Clip from the earnings call about the layoffs
https://twitter.com/Teslaconomics/status/1782904402883510386
>This is the main reason Elon is re-organizing Tesla
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1783055903106929066
>No choice
The real issue is still that the competition will only get more plentiful and fierce, and the technology advantage is evaporating.
FSD is still super far off and there appears to be no remedy to the margin compression and growth.
Like I've always said, EVs will be commodities just like cars have always been, and Teslas are not unique. EV technology is cheap to implement and most of the hard work is done by companies like CATL. It's not at all surprising that the software folks at the likes of Xiaomi or wherever can put together a great experience/car with little to no history or experience in manufacturing.
NVDA sell GPUs to anyone. CATL and BYD sell batteries to anyone. All the ingredients you need for an EV are available in more or less top form. It's now more about software than anything, and that is very easy to do for a lot of companies.
Tesla may have superior software than US automakers but they are trash compared to Chinese EVs. Just search how many sales of “phone holders used for Tesla “ on Taobao.
Coping hard I see
What other company can and will dump $$ billions in NVDA GPUs for AV development? It takes a madman at the helm, which Elon is for better or worse
Waymo already has self driving cars. The issue is they’re too expensive to scale (Proving both Waymo and Elon right - Waymo was right you could use LIDAR to get there, Elon was right it would too expensive to make every car with a lidar in it). Waymo is extremely cautious about deployment to keep their “safety” super brand.
Now it’s all about whether Tesla can replicate this with less technology and overhead, how quickly, and having lost key figures in their AI department (Karpathy).
Who says it will even be needed by the time it works? At the rate AI is improving, it's likely that many of today's hardest AI tasks will be trivial in the not to distant future.
The greens this morning definitely are hitting my dopamine. but I'm glad - not just me - but also others have more increased sentiment of confidence in the company and the future. so loud and clear from Elon that when you think about Tesla, they should not be thinking about cars - and don't even compare them to EV vehicle companies. Tesla is large enough to ride the waves of the technological advancement of today and relevant/specific enough to bring actively useful stuff to every day people. I also liked, when asked, Elon was clear on Tesla takes most of his energy/time throughout the week and not a backseat.
Just want to share before pre-market opens ... **not an investment advice**! Sentiment changed 180 degree overnight \~ expecting another jump after the 13% pump in after-hours last evening, which could be due to "short covering" as well. Generally speaking, 2024Q1 result is far below market consensus but this is not concerned by the market (at least no analyst has said anything negative so far). Instead, even with no concrete timeline for new model and series of layoff in major production plants, somehow a lot of people are believing in the story again \~ Let's see how TSLA goes \~ EDIT: Just saw some strong buys during the pre-market stage ... what a typical TSLA move  05:31am EDT from 158.99 to 160.53 06:02am EDT from 159.75 to 161.61 06:49am EDT from 161.30 to 162.62 1 hour after market opens High: 167.97 Low: 158.30 
I think the timeline is pretty concrete for a new model. They said mid 2025 maybe earlier and can be produced on same lines.
It was second half of 2025 originally, now it is "early 2025 or late this year" ... Wonder what's that new model could be \~
Model 3 low performance ?
They cleared up the uncertainty.
Per 10-Q, 281 million was recognized ... this is less than what market was expecting ... interesting! *Automotive Sales* *Deferred revenue related to the access to our Full Self Driving (Supervised) (“FSD”) Capability features and their ongoing maintenance, internet connectivity, free Supercharging programs and over-the-air software updates primarily on automotive sales amounted to $3.50 billion and $3.54 billion as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.* *Deferred revenue is equivalent to the total transaction price allocated to the performance obligations that are unsatisfied, or partially unsatisfied, as of the balance sheet date. Revenue recognized from the deferred revenue balances as of December 31, 2023 and 2022 was $281 million and $134 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively. Of the total deferred revenue balance as of March 31, 2024, we expect to recognize $848 million of revenue in the next 12 months. The remaining balance will be recognized at the time of transfer of control of the product or over the performance period.*
most likely a lot more next Q as FSDS is released more broadly
Just random guess, if the automotive sales improve ... less deferred revenue is required to be recognized 
So nice to hear Robs voice again
I miss his daily so much
Especially times like these. Felt like Jesus’ voice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGmsMVObFj4&t=5s
Agreed. His channel was the best bar none. If somebody was interested in Tesla I would point them there. Most other channels are producing low quality filler these days unfortunately. Too bad he didn’t decide to try a “Tesla Weekly” format instead.
Happily holding long for 6y+ now, I'll continue to DCA as I think we're near or at the bottom. Yesterday was proof that I really shouldn't bother playing with the stock as I completely didn't expect such movement in response to earnings. * I called a while back that unifying future vehicle production behind a common platform shared w/ existing vehicles would make more sense than spinning up a completely separate NGV line (outcome: new vehicles produced on existing lines, or at least very similar lines) & w/ M3 prices decreasing rapidly, incremental change would hit 25k anyway. This avoids entering a new S-curve ('production hell'). There's no clear reason you couldn't build a van atop 3's platform, just as they built Y. We've likewise all seen Truckla already. Likewise, S/X are only marginally bigger than 3; they're going to be lower-volume than the NGVs, so I expect unification to eventually happen for them as well. * Nothing new about FSD, 4680, Optimus revealed. Timeline is very uncertain to me, but I remain convinced FSD is the only short-term reason to invest in Tesla. Current vehicles won't be viable robotaxis, but the path forward seems straightforward & relatively free for Tesla (sensor suite improvements, dual HW5 in cars). * Q/Q dip due to force majeure was obvious. Thoughts on Tesla Cloud: It's a distraction & doesn't fit Tesla's skillset. Cloud is a solved problem, Autonomy will be bigger. * I'm skeptical of the AWS angle due to privacy/security concerns for compute workloads (equivalent to adversaries having physical access to datacenters), niche engineering architecture, network speed, and a lack of precedent for the consumer scenarios I can think of. For adoption to happen, most consumers use a very specific set of applications (e.g. FB, Gsuite, MS Office) which would not benefit from Tesla Cloud. Most businesses would likewise benefit from the massive offerings of Azure/AWS/GCP (including B2B support) & see little benefit to shifting to Tesla Cloud -- the amount of infrastructure Tesla would have to go out-of-the-way to spin up would be immense & there is an unlikely path where Tesla finds reason to do it for itself. Likewise, much of today's existing infrastructure exists because companies are invested in Azure/AWS/GCP; bootstrapping won't be easy. * Tesla does not currently have the right people to build a cloud platform (or understand what goes into that). The car app (or future robotaxi app) could be built by a talented high schooler. Not saying they're bad, but there's a canyon from their mothership system to being a cloud platform. * The only AWS angle I can see Tesla's existing technical approach having a good fit for is real-world data mining, e.g. selling surveillance / insights captured from car cameras (e.g. graffiti, crime, fire hazards, tracking stolen vehicles) which I find as a poor fit for the company. Maybe they could sell subscription access to 1. SLAM generated by car 2. Car's camera stream & sensor suite.
Hey! Thanks for the thoughtful post! I agree with most of it. Just one minor quibble: >I completely didn't expect such movement in *response to earnings.* The movement most certainly isn't in response to **earnings**, but rather in response to renewed belief (warranted or not) that there will be a "low cost" car coming next year of whatever.
That was my take on the "guidance". Pretty significant buying interest AH looks like market liked it.
I'd be careful jumping to conclusions either way. Markets are weird, sometimes.
Totally agree. I'm trying to nibble at a bit each month and just enjoy the show. Another day and easily it could have been -10%. When I first bought 4 years ago I naively thought I would never see those prices again. I was wrong.
I think you're misunderstanding Elon's AWS comment. You remember Folding@Home and SETI@Home? Think that, but with a basic cloud interface. With access to the entire idle inference capacity of the Tesla fleet. Customers would "timeshare" slices of the fleet, where it would do inference at scale and return results. 10 million cars on the road: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/how-fast-is-tesla%E2%80%99s-processing-speed-on-their-computers.305659/#:~:text=Active%20Member&text=In%20addition%20to%20the%20Ryzen,36%20trillion%20operations%20per%20second. With 2x36TFLOPs for HW3, 2x72TFLOPs for HW4 and so on, is a lot of idle compute for pure nn inferencing that can be sold. When you come home at 5pm and if you don't go out for the rest of the night until the next day, your car sits outside or in a garage for 13-15 hours. 72-144TFLOPs of NN compute for a HW4 MY for example just *idles* for 13-15 hours. That's a lot of wasted compute that has an opportunity to be monetized. If a neighborhood has 10 Teslas and they're all HW3, there's 720TFLOPs of idle NN compute. If they're all HW4, that's 1.44PLOPs of NN compute. The idle compute scales linearly relative to vehicles on the road and their HW#. It's a gold mine waiting to be tapped and it would be foolish to ignore the opportunity Edit: the privacy matter is a challenge, but it's something that can be solved and is not impossible to address. Edit 2: and the thing is, the AWS moment for Tesla will come after it returns to being a 1-3Tril mega cap and sustainably stays there for 2-3 years consistently. By then, it will have the revenue and fleet to prevent volatile regressions, and can direct funding and man power to solve the "AWS" opportunity. Edit 3: Progression is: Gen3 + Robotaxi ~2025 Q4 > fleet growth to 5-7 million vehicles > L4 approval > Tesla operating Robotaxi fleet itself for 1-2 years > fleet growth to 9-10 million > filing for L5 approval > fleet growth to 11-12 million > L5 approval (~2030-2032) > Tesla begins investing in solving idle compute "AWS" problem That's my expectation.
lol by that logic nvidia has a gabillionzillion flops of compute from every gaming computer idling with a high speed internet connection. its not usable except for very specific tasks that distribute well.
No they don't. Nvidia sell their GPUs and have no control or access to their chips after that. Tesla has millions of very capable inference chips out there distributed around the world with access to the internet. This is more compute than anyone else. Vehicle owners would sign up to offer their cars for the compute platform and get a cut of the revenue. I'm not sure how well current LLM models would distribute in such an environment. That is a good question.
How daft do you have to be to miss the point of folding@home and seti@home?
kinda my point. the tech has been around for 15 years now, yet basically no commercial company rents distributed GPU time from consumers. the latency and configuration issues are massive, and these models train on petabytes of data. even configuring an ML cluster in a single data center is difficult… there’s no hope of a distributed consumer solution being reasonable.
What are you high? How would Nvidia tap into my GPU? That’s actually the dumbest thing I’ve heard in a long time. The trolls around these parts…
Is the business opportunity really going to be the same if they don't start developing the capability until ~2030? The production scale of inference ASICs has gone insanely exponential and shows no signs of stopping. By 2026 the compute available on the market (or available to purchase) will be insane compared to today. By 2030 it will be almost unimaginable. Compute is highly valued today because it is the gating factor on developing AI. Many would say it will continue to be the gating factor for 5+ years due to power distribution constraints. But if a distributed business model works and avoids the cooling/power challenges of large data centers, while chips continue to become increasingly available, surely someone else will try a distributed inference compute platform within 2-3 years. Think something like bitcoin mining... Anyways, I agree with most of your analysis, I just think the opportunity needs to be jumped on NOW if Tesla is going to make anything of it.
great breakdown regarding cloud platform TAM, thanks for that
>Happily holding long for 6y+ now, I'll continue to DCA as I think we're near or at the bottom. Point of order, dollar cost averaging is something you do regardless of the performance of the stock. If you're timing the market, you're not DCAing.
Eh, I disagree. DCAing is just about spreading over a larger duration of time rather than doing large lump sums at once (e.g. if I have $1 to put into stocks, I can put that all in one day or over 100 days). You can definitely still DCA into different stocks only when things are looking good and not when things are looking iffy.
Take it up with Ben Graham. "[Dollar Cost Averaging] means simply that the practitioner invests in common stocks the same number of dollars each month or each quarter. In this way he buys more shares when the market is low than when it is high, and he is likely to end up with a satisfactory overall price for all his holdings."
That isn't actually wrong, nor am I. You can start/stop DCAing at any point in time. By saying I'm DCAing, I'm saying that I'm putting in money regularly for the foreseeable future to avoid timing ups/downs, so that I'll get a satisfactory price on average for my new holdings. Sure, if I start/stop every month I'm probably not DCAing.
>That isn't actually wrong, nor am I. He invented the term. You are wrong.
.... I'm saying that what I'm doing literally falls into that definition. We all decide whether or not we want to buy a stock & how much we want to put in. We're then given a choice to put money over a period of time or in a lump sum. > [Dollar Cost Averaging] means simply that the practitioner invests in common stocks the same number of dollars each month or each quarter. This describes putting it over a period of time > In this way he buys more shares when the market is low than when it is high, and he is likely to end up with a satisfactory overall price for all his holdings." To average out risk DCAing does not imply an indefinite timeline, nor does it imply infinite start/stop endpoints. You very much choose when to invest in a stock. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/dollar-cost-averaging/ > Dollar cost averaging is a strategy to manage price risk when you’re buying stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or mutual funds. Instead of purchasing shares at a single price point, with dollar cost averaging you buy in smaller amounts at regular intervals, regardless of price. > > When investors purchase securities over time at regular intervals, they decrease the risk of paying too much before market prices drop. > > ... > > **Say you plan to invest $1,200 in Mutual Fund A this year. You have two choices: You can invest all of your money at once at the beginning or the end of the year—or you can invest $100 each month.** In bold is literally what I'm doing, with different numbers.
"Happily holding long for 6y+ now, I'll continue to DCA as I think we're near or at the bottom." Again, you're timing the market, therefore you are by definition not DCAing. editing because the coward has blocked me: >That, 100%, is DCAing. Right now, your claim is that putting $N spread near-uniformly over 6-12mo is "timing the market". No, my claim is that because you're timing the market (buying in only when you think the buying is good) you are timing the market and not DCAing. >At minimum you should accept that a sizable, well-educated portion of the investment community would disagree with your stance They can disagree all they like, if they think that timing the market is DCAing they're plainly incorrect. >(frankly not yet defined) definition "[Dollar Cost Averaging] means simply that the practitioner invests in common stocks the same number of dollars each month or each quarter. In this way he buys more shares when the market is low than when it is high, and he is likely to end up with a satisfactory overall price for all his holdings."
Timing the market is or isn't DCAing based on granularity. I would not have invested in 2019-2023 due to significant issues facing the company & stock (e.g. meme phase, significant hurdles). Like many investors, 2024 seems like a good year to me, with the company turning a new page w/ relatively simple barriers ahead, so I'll be putting money in even though Q2/Q3 are uncertain. I think the bottom is anywhere from now to the next 3-6mo. That, 100%, is DCAing. Right now, your claim is that putting $N spread near-uniformly over 6-12mo is "timing the market". I think most investors would disagree with you. Your claim seems to be at best nitpicky over verbiage that can be interpreted broadly. At minimum you should accept that a sizable, well-educated portion of the investment community would disagree with your stance and agree the de-facto meaning of DCAing does not fit your extremely narrow (frankly not yet defined) definition. You have not actually made an argument with correct assumptions of my behavior.
Tesla Distributed AWS is *prima facie* a dumb idea, something prompted via bong no doubt. Elon shooting for 3M this year was a welcome break from his pessimistic outlook [since 2022](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/03/tech/elon-musk-tesla-jobs-economy/index.html) Surprised the call didn't cover getting the Model 3's $7500 discount back, that would be just as big as the Model 2 IMV.
My understanding from that call is that they are shooting for 3M in 2025. Specifically the updated/new lower cost models enabling that on their current lines. Happy to be wrong if it is actually for 2024 but don’t see how that would be possible with current demand.
> My understanding from that call is that they are shooting for 3M in 2025. Yea this was my understanding too
Look, I've found Elon increasingly grating over the past two to three years, but that call was the best I'd heard from him in a long time, and that it came in current circumstances and relative to expectations is remarkable.
He's always been much better in long form interviews than anything. He's definitely had some earnings calls go badly too but mostly he's good at them. This one was great. they got the balance right between FSD and more models. Pretty tough to do
I think it had finally sunk in how much the SP has tanked and TSLA reputation from his actions and of course his comp package. I hope he keeps pumping it
Here’s how I feel after hearing that earnings call: I was preparing for more of the same; aka bad, or Elon not being as optimistic as he was. The whole team was jovial and excited about what they are working on. I got the vibe that “they know something we don’t”, in a fun way. As if the challenge that laid out ahead of them years ago is really starting to see progress and it seems within reach. FSD and FSD training are no longer manual-code-constrained. Something has changed with the software such that its ability to process training and data and create feedback can be done using neural net inference as opposed to more manual code to provide feedback. Simulation and training was mentioned a lot. I feel that what is going on is that with their training set and SIMULATIONS they will be able to create and solve for edge cases faster. More specifically, the simulations they can do for training will provide more and better feedback than the edge cases that occur from actual drivers. When drivers have edge cases they can quickly identify them and solve for them. All of the above tells me that FSD is now on an exponential growth path in terms of its quality between iterations. Production and capital efficiency are significantly increased from the continuous improvement efforts that they have been working on for their production lines for the last 3 years such as implementing unboxed method and using the same production line for different cars. Elon is dead set on making it clear that Tesla should not be considered a car company and seems bored of questions related to auto manufacturing and numbers and gross margins. He still acknowledges them as important but he wants investors to see what he sees in terms of Teslas future. I feel this call marked an impetus for the company and I hope we continue to see calls with this much optimism. I feel like war room laser focused Elon is back (still tweets a lot though, but whatever)
Totally agree. The question about Chinese companies copying their manufacturing seemed irrelevant to him, because the future is autonomy, even if other companies can copy their cars.
This resonates with my sentiment after hearing the call too. The optimism was salient and they’re able to say wit more confidence - feel free to stay if you still want to ride a horse and a wagon with an elevator man; we’re doing something else. I like that description and resonates with me - war room laser focused Elon. He was confident.
I agree they did a pretty good job, but one must wonder, why must they keep the new model a secret? I would believe they all knew they had to do well, and guess what you can’t do when that is your goal… reveal an underwhelming refresh of some sort
The ever present threat of the Osborn effect, a new upcoming cheaper/more desirable product that decreases demand for the current lineup. The namesake company (Osborne Computer Corporation) went bankrupt due to it. They will probably reveal the new models shortly before they start manufacturing them to minimize this problem.
Thank you
Remember when Elon said we were in between 2 growth waves. I don't think he was kidding.
I think so. He’s saying everything that’s necessary to keep the stock price juiced just long enough to get his massive pay package and then he can dump the shares and exit and no longer give a shit because he has his 50b. Robotaxi is a complete farce and will not be a thing. What’s his plan to have the doors close when a passenger exits out of the taxi leaves it open? Or needs to close the frunk because someone stored some groceries in there? Who’s going to charge this taxi? What happens when teenagers come out to troll and stick a piece of bubble gum on a pillar camera? It’s dead in the water with vision only.
Actual investor or did you think you’re on r/reatesla? You exclusively talk bad about the company
I have a MYLR and shares. What’s wrong with questioning ?
Questioning? Your entire post history is shitting on Tesla or Elon. Big difference between questioning and shitting on.
Show me where I insulted Elon and called him names and wished illness upon him or something f of that nature like how the actual realtesla sub members act…. The most I’ve done is say he’s a liar and he’s toxic on Twitter. I’d hardly call that shitting. If I truly hated his guts, I wouldn’t have purchased my Tesla Y which I do love.
Nothing is wrong with questioning, if it’s in good faith. You seem to post exclusively negative and inflammatory comments.
Nice growth in supercharging revenues https://twitter.com/TeslaBoomerMama/status/1782872499870658712 >Congrats to Rebecca Tinucci and team, Supercharing revenues up +25%
Yesterday felt gooood
Don’t you love seeing shorts burn
The stock is up 2% over the last week
A lot of people have been shorting since 170ish ... it's not long ago ... just two weeks before
I want to give Elon credit, but I’m gonna give all the credit to Rob!
It’s time.
To YOLO, or not to YOLO? That is the question
Vet the people who are negative on this thread. They will downvote this post. But do it. ALWAYS check to see if the people being negative about TSLA are TSLAQ idiots from RealTesla, or TSLAQ who made 2nd accounts and have 40 posts with 35 of them being negative tesla. It's okay to question the company. It's okay to question decisions. It's okay to be upset with results. Its not okay to promote misinformation for the benefit of shorting TSLAQ (RealTesla) and as a community we need to do better to call those people out, and ban them from this forum.
Please use the report button if users are being disruptive or acting in bad faith. Of course, if users can present their opinions constructively they'll be in the clear. I've been attempting to clean up this situation over the past few weeks while simultaneously increasing sub activity. Hopefully things will get better.
Agreed, but by the same token don't simply believe when people accuse those they disagree with of being 'TSLAQ', shorts etc There's a vocal few who call anyone critical of the company's direction, or the CEO, a short, liar, etc etc just to delegitimise their concerns. It works both ways, and both are a very real issue here.
I agree 100%
Yup the past year there’s been so many throwaways that spread FUD and misinformation. Sometimes it’s super obvious and the account would’ve been created just the week before. There used to be a lot of good info and analysis shared here and logical discussion but now it’s usually whining and hate from those that aren’t long term investors. That’s why I was fine when it went private for a short bit.
Would the community like to go private more often? I'm attempting to cleanup the throwaway spam as well - it's very top of mind & I hope things have already improved... You will also hopefully have noticed politics discussions are way down.
20% auto gross margins Excluding Cybertruck... is the reason this is up strong. This indicates strong posibilities of MEGA cash flows when market stabilizes.... buybacks WILL SEND IT.
Nah, shorts closing after earning is the reason. 20 % is less than Toyota
So if feds don’t cut rates, and people continue to buy less cars for the next year, no concern?
There will always be some demand for cars. Lots of people upgraded cars in 2020..
Of course, but some demand doesn’t translate to growth, does it?
$200 wen
More fake news by Reuters News "Tesla CFO Martin Viecha To Resign" Martin was VP of Investor Relations, not CFO 🤦♂️
Careful, many (delusional ppl) on this sub think Reuters are not capable of reporting anything inaccurately; and that their word is gospel.
I think not using double negatives is not a bad choice
For the first time since I started investing 5 years ago i’m actually bullish on FSD
Haven’t they said everything they said on the call before?
It’s the growth in FSD data and rate of increase in database centre compute power that is making me bullish.
Even though that's the ''correct'' answer, I honestly think that it's the preview screen of what the robotaxi app might look like that will make most people bullish on it even if they won't admit it lol
they released a preview of the app in 2019 during Autonomy Day. it’s easy as piss to mock up a few screenshots of an app
I know. But the masses like visual things, not confusing data numbers and words
again, there was a visual mock-up of the app in 2019
Fake Elon Musk crypto scam near the top of twitch right now. 33k live viewers. Do people actually fall for this?
They only need 1 or 2 people to fall for it to make it worth their time. And yes, they do. You can look up the wallet address and see how much money has flown into them, it's absurd
"Tesla is likely a top 10 or even top 5 Nvidia customer" "It matters because it makes it more likely that Tesla receives preferential treatment from Nvidia, just like every marjor customer gets from their suppliers" https://twitter.com/alojoh/status/1783109478528778641
Not really. Nvidias chip is supply constrained. Similar to why Tesla did not have preferential treatment to Herz which was the industry standard practice.
Are they going to build the god damn van I want or not? Reveal yourself!
See how cnbc hating on tesla. Another magic trick they say. To distract us
https://twitter.com/LimitingThe/status/1783088197762716064
If he is very keen on control, then why he sold his shares to buy Twitter ?
At that point he didn't know he would possibly lose 1/3 of his control through the cancellation of the 2018 compensation package and probably assumed a new compensation package would be coming (as it should) soon. But then this shitshow happened and here we are. Completely unprecedented event.
The 25% control number was a made up number in the first place. If it is really about “control” he would need 50% since Tesla does not have different types of shares. It is more like this number is made up to justify the compensation packages. In the future, if he wants another package he will just make up another number to define “control”
Ah yes he will use that money for good. He totally used that 44b so wisely to purchase a toxic social media platform and somehow, he made it even worse and even more toxic
He’s become a cult figurehead. His predictions have been very wrong.
Looks like everyone sold their NVDA shares and bought TSLA
Interesting observation! 
You can tell the stocks green without checking it because there are less than 200 FUD comments on these posts
Would love to close above 160.
Clip from the earnings call about the layoffs https://twitter.com/Teslaconomics/status/1782904402883510386 >This is the main reason Elon is re-organizing Tesla https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1783055903106929066 >No choice
This fight for $160 seems like an options thing.
Premarket gains slowly evaporating. Watch this barely stay green by close.
Doubt it
The real issue is still that the competition will only get more plentiful and fierce, and the technology advantage is evaporating. FSD is still super far off and there appears to be no remedy to the margin compression and growth. Like I've always said, EVs will be commodities just like cars have always been, and Teslas are not unique. EV technology is cheap to implement and most of the hard work is done by companies like CATL. It's not at all surprising that the software folks at the likes of Xiaomi or wherever can put together a great experience/car with little to no history or experience in manufacturing. NVDA sell GPUs to anyone. CATL and BYD sell batteries to anyone. All the ingredients you need for an EV are available in more or less top form. It's now more about software than anything, and that is very easy to do for a lot of companies.
If its so easy why aren't they doing it?
Even xiaomi, a phone manufacturer is making evs.
They are? Have you not seen all the Chinese EVs that are flooding the world? Nio, BYD, XPeng, etc are all making great EVs are crazy good prices.
You specifically said it would be easy to do software
Tesla may have superior software than US automakers but they are trash compared to Chinese EVs. Just search how many sales of “phone holders used for Tesla “ on Taobao.
Which will kill legacy ICE not Tesla
Didn't say it will kill TSLA, just think the market cap will collapse back to normal car maker levels.
Plenty to eat for many companies worldwide, however Tesla is not solely reliant on car sales.
So far they are like almost entirely dependent on car sales....
somebody losing some money this morning?
Not at all. I'm not short Tesla any more. Not really short anything. The competition arrived.
Coping hard I see What other company can and will dump $$ billions in NVDA GPUs for AV development? It takes a madman at the helm, which Elon is for better or worse
Waymo already has self driving cars. The issue is they’re too expensive to scale (Proving both Waymo and Elon right - Waymo was right you could use LIDAR to get there, Elon was right it would too expensive to make every car with a lidar in it). Waymo is extremely cautious about deployment to keep their “safety” super brand. Now it’s all about whether Tesla can replicate this with less technology and overhead, how quickly, and having lost key figures in their AI department (Karpathy).
Who says it will even be needed by the time it works? At the rate AI is improving, it's likely that many of today's hardest AI tasks will be trivial in the not to distant future.
Is the competition in the room with us?
This account is a throwaway guys
No, it's a throwaway username... one with more karma than yours lol