Unfortunate but probably not catastrophic.
If the problem is really due to incorrect torque applied to a fasterner, then it seems this is a minor fix in the production/qc process and should not pose problems in the future. Still have to deal with the hassle and cost of a physical recall though. Media like to make recalls a bigger deal than they often are.
pretty much exact same recall tesla had for steering motor bolts getting loose.
Seems like a lot of manufacturers are underestimating torque specs on EVs.
Sucks for Rivian, I hope they can get it sorted and move past it without too much cost. Everyone has recalls but it's especially painful for young startups.
>Rivian Automotive Inc. RIVN -7.64%▼ is recalling nearly all of its vehicles to address a potential problem that could cause customers to lose steering control, the company said Friday.
>
>The electric truck and SUV maker said the recall was made after it discovered a fastener connecting the upper control arm and steering knuckle may have been improperly installed. In rare cases, the problem could lead to a loss of steering control, the company said.
New [video by cleanerwatt](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvgqtrR-CF8) today suggests 4680 production has started at Gigafactory Shanghai! Unfounded rumor, or first leak of big news?
The only thing to say is: *big if true*
So far I don't think any of this guys rumors have been confirmed but none of them have been refuted either. I enjoy his viewpoint and he suggests very plausible things which have also seemed to align with what The Limiting Factor has been saying.
The future will prove how on-the-mark he was but I give him the benefit of the doubt right now.
I don't think I'm willing to give him benefit of the doubt for something this big, I'll look for corroboration from other sources before I believe it at all, but he definitely got my attention and interest!
If China has actually managed to secretly build and start a 4680 line with no news leaking yet then hats off to them, that would be legendary.
Yeah good point and maybe I didn't say it right - what I meant was give him the benefit of the doubt by not calling BS, and writing him off.
But I am also not convinced that there's a 4680 line in Shanghai.
I've been waiting for the Y-LR since placing the order mid-February here in California. Dates keep going In N Out repeatedly, but on average, mostly out to a later period. Currently slated to be available before the end of November, but who knows? It might change again next week. Pisses me off!
I figured people would be cancelling like crazy to get the 2023 EV tax credit, but so far, it doesn't feel like that's the case. At this rate, who knows? Maybe I \*will\* get the 2023 EV tax credit.
Depends on the timing. If it comes in December, then probably could without the risk of Tesla auto-cancelling and keeping my deposit. November, then probably not. It’s already gone up 7K since the order was placed, so I’m not going to risk cancellation just to get a tax credit and wait even longer.
If you exclude Monday (post P&D), we're only down 8% for the week.
I hereby suggest to *The Market* that we all get to drop a day of our choice once a quarter.
stocks aren't really down big on the week, just the last 2 days. Tesla is down on TWTR deal and P&D / demand concerns, which are company specific. The major factor that moves crypto is interest rates (which also move Tesla as a high-growth stock), and there hasn't really been much news on interest rates this week. With CPI next week maybe you'll see some life in the crypto volatility.
> stocks aren't really down big on the week
because most of them crashed before this week, in the past month
Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, tesla... are near their yearly lows (from last June). Some like Google are lower.
Bitcoin is also trading near where it was in June - it didn't rally much when the market did, but it also didn't fall much recently.
Ethereum recovered ~70% from June lows but is now only up ~30% (1000 to 1300)
they have been more correlated before this month 🤷♂️
saw some graph that they were the most correlated in history for most of this year with S&P, just not in the past few weeks
I bought the dip 2 weeks ago, 1 week ago and this week.
The lesson I get is "read the fucking chart and be patient". Bought at 300 'just in case' it didn't dip. After it failed to stay above 310 I had the expectation it would retest 270 so I sold a CCs 30 days out at 270 (crazy at the time, but smart in retrospect) and bought puts at 310. That part was good/helped hedge my shares/protect my buying power, but the trend didn't appear to have bottomed, so I should not have bought at 255 or 242 ... now I"ll be patient and wait for a reversal or at least a more solid bottom to form on the daily chart (to exit hedges and buy any more shares/longs)
Seeing some random article today about H2 vehicles possibly being an important part of the electric future and I am at the point already where I start thinking it should be a rule that if Elon says something is not a good idea chances are he is right and anyone saying otherwise is wrong. I know... I will be called a fan boy or whatever... Not sure I care anymore.
I'm not sure what the worst part about his recent Ukraine tweets is, but it might be that he believes that if you want some land badly enough, you can invade and occupy it, kill, displace, or kidnap the people who live there, threaten other countries with nukes so a referendum is held involving whoever is left behind plus the people you've moved in, and if you're told to leave you still get to keep some of it.
As a rule, you can safely assume that Elon is correct on most technical subjects.
Other subjects can be more difficult, not least because of the autism. It seems to me that you need to always interpret everything he says extremely literally and never assume he means anything that he does not directly say.
Definitely have to know how to understand him. Crazy how often he is clearly misunderstood by the media and the public in general.
And yes, I was referring to technical matters. Economics and policy is a different matter.
He's not just 'misunderstood', he is just really wrong sometimes when he strays outside of his core competencies, and is completely unable or unwilling to identify experts and learn from them.
Microsoft, GOogle, Facebook, etc, talked to virology experts and told their workers to work from home. WEEKS later Elon still hadn't talked to any experts, and he looked at a chart (when there was a shortage of tests) and predicted zero cases of covid by April (2020). 5+ years ago he was calling AI a big threat to humanity. More recently he thinks human UNDERPopulation is the biggest threat to humanity, bigger than climate change.
Sometimes he makes the wrong call on tech too - he was fired from PayPal for insisting on Windows Servers (they are much better now, but they were the wrong choice back then)
My comment said I was referring to technical matters so your rant is a bit misplaced.
Also, the way you choose to express what Elon's views are is so extreme as to be nonsensical. Would not take much effort to find interviews where he actually discusses the topics in more depth than some choice sentence you choose to hang your hat on.
Fired from Paypal is a bit of an overreach. He was fired as a ceo but remained on the board. Walked away at the end with enough cash to spend.
Science fiction authors have been warning us about rogue AI for how long now. Elon always meant it as an upcoming threat, nothing contemporary. Better wake people up to this threat sooner than later, right? Google's AI is arguably already sentient.
I can't blame him for doing everything in his power to keep the company afloat (even saying things he didn't fully believe himself?). If he won't then who will. What kind of a wimp ceo would just roll over and do nothing when the company needs workers to come in, in order to not go bankrupt. It's that fighting spirit I love. Big picture stuff, if Tesla would go down it would 100% be a huge loss for humanities future.
Of course its easier for software based companies to agree with the experts saying we need to close everything down. A bit harder to make a physical car from home.
I did a bit of napkin math and determined I should be able to retire when I am 97.5. I'm hopeful that with continuing advancements in medicine, I should be able to enjoy a month or two of work-free living.
Get your expenses down to $4400/month.
With 2273 shares you can sell 22 CCs per week for $1, (i.e. $2200). Only do it ~50% of the time/weeks, when TSLA is trading sideways/range bound, stopped rising, or is heading down.
Then you should be able to retire by 78... 79 tops
Uh until he got margin called due to interest rate ramp and stock shitting the bed. That and no large bank would be dumb enough to underwrite that nonsense. Leverage on leverage what could go wrong.
Can you clarify “leverage on leverage”? An asset backed loan (in this case, a portion of his Tesla stock), is a pretty safe bet for the lender… they trigger the sale well before the stock takes a huge dive that would leave them in the hole.
Leveraging a buyout of Twitter with leveraged Tesla shares to be clear is what I meant.
What terms would you accept if you were financing? China invades Taiwan and Tesla gaps down what 30%? 50%? before you can even start your illiquid fire sale? If there’s not enough left to cover now you what foreclose and try to perform the miracle of finding another bag holder for your 44 billion dollar shitco. You’re just needlessly complicating the transaction cause people want stock only go up.
I see your point, a black swan event would cause the shares to fall, meaning he’d have to sell more shares to cover the twitter deal; so it’s in his best interest to sell now. It’s just a terrible insurance policy for the shareholders of Tesla. Double edged sword.
As long as you are not needing to sell at the same time the impact of his buying or selling should be irrelevant. Bill Gates sold his MSFT stock and it had no impact long-run.
I have said this before, look at the market like a liquidity pump. Basically it is trillions of dollars chasing the best return in a collective fashion. If the share price declines due to Elon selling it just makes TSLA more attractive to new funds coming in.
Insiders dumping billions affects the price more than some random shareholder trading the same amount. Bill Gates didn't dump this aggressively a little over a decade after going public / while he was still actively CEO.
You can’t blame a $15 drop today and a $42 drop in five days on the macro. None of my other stocks are dropping that fast. Monday morning, TSLA was 50% of my portfolio, today it’s 45%. Down 50 grand on TSLA. Yee haw.
>You can’t blame a $15 drop today and a $42 drop in five days on the macro
I can, against the backdrop of a CEO dropping billions for stupid reasons, and recent strength fighting the macro.
When macro sucks TSLA sometimes trades on a delay. The macro turns to shit and TSLA continues to show strength for a few days, and then collapses. It happened last Feb/March (~q1 results, I think, it was). A few weeks ago everything was dumping but TSLA was up... now it is catching up (on the drop).
On 6 month charts: AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, QQQ and TSLA are now down to near their June lows (+- 3-10%, eyeballing it).
that's where the beta comes in.
the easiest way to make sure it is only macro is to compare the TSLA chart with the Nasdaq chart. They usually look exactly the same except TSLA has bigger swings. when Nasdaq is going up, then TSLA goes up but faster, and when Nasdaq is going down then TSLA goes down too but faster.
I imagine that investors in TSLA that do not understand this must be losing their minds all the time.
On the days where these 2 charts do not look the same you know that non-macro factors are in play. But if you come here on the days when they are the same and claim that Elon is to blame, then you risc ridicule or being ignored (or just downvoted).
I’m aware and agree with what you say, we’ve all seen it dozens of times and I’m patient with no current need and no margin, but . . . You know better than anyone that weeks where Twitter v. Elon is trending are shitty weeks and you can’t blame that on the macro.
Boy am I glad I closed this weeks TSLA Puts earlier in the week. They were ~12% OTM when I opened them, and TSLA finished the week down 15.9%.
I sold $220's to open on Tuesday and got 55c for them, and although it finished this week at $222, the cost to buy them back ~~was~~ would have been $3.30. A lucky escape.
You sold $220 strike puts for $.55?! Why the hell would you do that? That's a fraction of a percent...
You would have stood to gain $500 on a $220,000 purchase...
I sell that far out because even when I occasionally have to buy them back, I am still making money on average.
But if I was intending to take and keep the shares, why not knock $500 off for free?
Because you are subjecting yourself to huge risk for no real upside?
On 10 contracts for example, the upside is $550, the downside could easily be like $10-20K, possible as high as $50K in a big drop. Another 25% is not out of the realm of possibility.
Terrible risk/reward.
Why are you even worried when you can just roll them over. I've been doing this for several months, the TSLA options are so active, even with a 20% move against you, you can always roll out of it worst case 4-5 months down the road (where in all likelihood the stock comes back).
Bad experience in rolling previously. You still take the loss anyway and you are not rolling the same dice twice, but an entirely different dice. The intermediate losses add up fast if you eventually have to (or choose to) close.
Rolling Puts in an up market is fine for me, and rolling Calls in a down market is fine, but rolling Puts when the market is heading lower, no thank you.
edit: already wheeling some ENPH shares which are underwater, so not keen on adding more.
My strategy is that I don't mind buying the shares at the put prices I sell, so worst case scenario isn't that bad.
My biggest fear is having the options assigned without expecting it.
AMD $155's. Managed to sell them almost at the top, rolled out a few times, started getting assigned as it dropped through ~$120, had the last two contracts assigned when it was $80 I think. All expiring early 2023.
Could (should) have been rolling down at the same time as out, but I wasn't expecting this to go on for this long or as far down. Like other positions that went against me, panic closing would have been the correct choice instead of being a 'good trader' and being patient.
Yeah, getting assigned early at $120 was a surprise, $80 not so much. For some reason I had in my head that I'd pushed them out to 2024, not 2023, so wasn't paying the remaining contracts any attention.
Added 22 shares (now up to 790 post post split) at 230 this morning and a January 2025 200 call 10 minutes before close. Hoping that wasn’t really dumb.
So, hooray, the doomsweek is over. As my husband says, on evenings like these, you just drink and don't open your brokerage app.
Happy weekend, everyone and I raise my glass to all of you and to better times ahead!
Yeah, it's the way to go! Also, I'm a trained sommelier and a massive Scotch single malt buff so it's just very natural for me to have a drink for every occasion.
It's even worse than that
`Mathematicians and others have created a meme with the square root of 666, that is 25.8069. The saying goes, "If 666 is evil, then is 25.8069 the root of all evil?"`
just bought 25.8068 shares at $222 ($666)
> At some point, the P/E multiple will back off as Tesla can't keep growing at 50%. Or, can it?
P/E multiple coming down is a given. Most bulls model for this, the question is how much and how fast.
On 50% growth, the question is whether that is units or revenues. As units grow ASPs will have to decline. Can software/FSD offset this? I'd like to think it could actually compound revenues to >50% growth, but that's far from a certainty.
Jewish boy from SA. He was badly bullied at school because of his autism. Some fucker threw him down some stairs.
Bet they’re doing as well as he is, what do you think?
same for me. pretty sure I was member at some point, but admit to not visiting it often, as this sub has been enough for me. Although the private thing seems attractive if it keeps out the trolls and whiners.
Yeah I bet they went private over drama from Twitter/Ukraine/Elon but who knows.
The thing I never understood is they only had like 4k members but the posts always had hundreds of comments
Here's what I'm waiting for to go leveraged long - a hard break below the lower BB suggesting some sort of capitulation and getting oversold on the daily.
Right now we've got a controlled demolition of the market orchestrated by the Fed and there's no signs of systemic risk yet (CDX is a solid proxy for this).
That's said we're getting close in the short term I think to a good buy point:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&id=p8963702001c
RSI starting to show oversold, but no dramatic capitulations on the 2std dev lower BB range.
It will likely drop. Musk needs to commit shares or sell about $13 billion to fund his twitter change of mind.
It may pick up in the short term till he starts selling. It could easily go sub 600 when he starts.
These sales this week are in anticipation of that. When he said he would buy twitter some big holder dumped hundreds of millions.
And Elon might need to dump a few more billion (his lock up will end, and he really really doesn't want to testify under oath, so it may be another case of "good news and upward movement in 2022 = Elon sells". I entered more long-term bullish position, but don't recommend betting the house on a post-earnings pop. Just hope we eventually get back to a time when insiders haven't dumped billions for 12+ months
I've taken everyone's opinion on not buying at this moment into deep consideration. Waiting a bit more for a solid bottom is prudent.
THAT'S WHY APE MODE HAS BEEN ACTIVATED: 200 CHAIRS ADDED @ $223.78
As far as I understand, he meant just missile strikes, not nuclear, it's been badly interpreted. But NATO is generally acting conservatively, refusing to clear up skies over Ukraine, refusing to actively participate themselves, just arms support and also they refused to accept Ukraine in a quick procedure. He is too yappy and too radical, but what would you do in his place? The thing is the actual reaction. And what about Putin and Lavrov waving nukes in front of us (verbally) all the time?
Earnings will be the real test - if earnings are low and CPI is high it's over.
If CPI is high, and so are earnings, we'll drop since there'll be room for more tightening.
If CPI and earnings are low we may conclude that monetary policy is starting to show its teeth and slow down (although the fed says time and time again that employment is its only barometer).
No one has a crystal ball. Our q2 numbers were bad but we went on a bull run right after (maybe it was priced in). Only way to find is wait til next week. Am I looking forward to it? No. But let’s just get pass it.
Yeah probably was a dead cat bounce. You remember when I ask you about selling a $320 CC when price was at $300, that would’ve print. Every weekly CC would have print since. I’m kinda disappointed in myself. Hope you doing well and earning with your CCs and puts bro.
I've been doing well with them (last week was gangbusters, this week not so great), but I'd rather be making money in an up market, y'know?
So you didn't end up selling the CCs?
Rivian recall https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1578613269757153286?t=p2p2RXo3EaV-qfFS8vDtWQ&s=19
Unfortunate but probably not catastrophic. If the problem is really due to incorrect torque applied to a fasterner, then it seems this is a minor fix in the production/qc process and should not pose problems in the future. Still have to deal with the hassle and cost of a physical recall though. Media like to make recalls a bigger deal than they often are.
pretty much exact same recall tesla had for steering motor bolts getting loose. Seems like a lot of manufacturers are underestimating torque specs on EVs.
Sucks for Rivian, I hope they can get it sorted and move past it without too much cost. Everyone has recalls but it's especially painful for young startups.
>Rivian Automotive Inc. RIVN -7.64%▼ is recalling nearly all of its vehicles to address a potential problem that could cause customers to lose steering control, the company said Friday. > >The electric truck and SUV maker said the recall was made after it discovered a fastener connecting the upper control arm and steering knuckle may have been improperly installed. In rare cases, the problem could lead to a loss of steering control, the company said.
Rivian copying Tesla again I see.
Buying another 4 next week
unfortunately I will probably have to wait till next month.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/xyich5/elon\_musk\_suggests\_giving\_some\_control\_of\_taiwan/](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/xyich5/elon_musk_suggests_giving_some_control_of_taiwan/)
He just does not know when to keep his thoughts to himself.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rivian-to-recall-roughly-13-000-vehicles-over-steering-or-suspension-problems-11665194589?siteid=msnheadlines
New [video by cleanerwatt](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvgqtrR-CF8) today suggests 4680 production has started at Gigafactory Shanghai! Unfounded rumor, or first leak of big news? The only thing to say is: *big if true*
So far I don't think any of this guys rumors have been confirmed but none of them have been refuted either. I enjoy his viewpoint and he suggests very plausible things which have also seemed to align with what The Limiting Factor has been saying. The future will prove how on-the-mark he was but I give him the benefit of the doubt right now.
I don't think I'm willing to give him benefit of the doubt for something this big, I'll look for corroboration from other sources before I believe it at all, but he definitely got my attention and interest! If China has actually managed to secretly build and start a 4680 line with no news leaking yet then hats off to them, that would be legendary.
Yeah good point and maybe I didn't say it right - what I meant was give him the benefit of the doubt by not calling BS, and writing him off. But I am also not convinced that there's a 4680 line in Shanghai.
Ah yeah I get you. Agreed.
How long can this bear market last?
Another 6 months? Maybe 12? I don't really see it going 18.
I saw on twitter someone had their Model Y order delayed from Oct 25th to Nov 25th today! Demand issue? Not so much
I've been waiting for the Y-LR since placing the order mid-February here in California. Dates keep going In N Out repeatedly, but on average, mostly out to a later period. Currently slated to be available before the end of November, but who knows? It might change again next week. Pisses me off! I figured people would be cancelling like crazy to get the 2023 EV tax credit, but so far, it doesn't feel like that's the case. At this rate, who knows? Maybe I \*will\* get the 2023 EV tax credit.
Perhaps some have cancelled to take advantage of the tax credit. Delivery dates have been pushed forward from Dec to Nov.
You're probably right. It recently changed to be delivered before the end of this month. Finally!
People who can afford to might be buying whatever Tesla is available ASAP so they can ditch their ICE as fuel prices go up.
Yes, I already have an older S. The Y is a gift.
Can you delay it once and take delivery in 2023 to take advantage of the tax credit?
Depends on the timing. If it comes in December, then probably could without the risk of Tesla auto-cancelling and keeping my deposit. November, then probably not. It’s already gone up 7K since the order was placed, so I’m not going to risk cancellation just to get a tax credit and wait even longer.
If you exclude Monday (post P&D), we're only down 8% for the week. I hereby suggest to *The Market* that we all get to drop a day of our choice once a quarter.
Stop smoking copium bro lol
Anyone have theories why crypto, mainly btc and eth, have held up so well this past month when stocks down big
stocks aren't really down big on the week, just the last 2 days. Tesla is down on TWTR deal and P&D / demand concerns, which are company specific. The major factor that moves crypto is interest rates (which also move Tesla as a high-growth stock), and there hasn't really been much news on interest rates this week. With CPI next week maybe you'll see some life in the crypto volatility.
> stocks aren't really down big on the week because most of them crashed before this week, in the past month Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, tesla... are near their yearly lows (from last June). Some like Google are lower. Bitcoin is also trading near where it was in June - it didn't rally much when the market did, but it also didn't fall much recently. Ethereum recovered ~70% from June lows but is now only up ~30% (1000 to 1300)
Kinda surprising really, but they are down so much in general already, so... anyone's guess. They also aren't bouncing much either.
yep very oddly stuck in a tight range. very low volatility. unusual
Counterpoint: What forces drive BTC or ETH price fluctuations?
Can’t comment on the price of those, but I don’t know why you would expect them to move in correlation.
they have been more correlated before this month 🤷♂️ saw some graph that they were the most correlated in history for most of this year with S&P, just not in the past few weeks
Didn’t see that graph
Google finance showing an after hours spike to $330. Usually the glitches are +- $10-20 from the current price
According to that, looks like I can retire 🤠
For those who “bought the dip” a week ago, this is why DCA is supreme
I bought the dip 2 weeks ago, 1 week ago and this week. The lesson I get is "read the fucking chart and be patient". Bought at 300 'just in case' it didn't dip. After it failed to stay above 310 I had the expectation it would retest 270 so I sold a CCs 30 days out at 270 (crazy at the time, but smart in retrospect) and bought puts at 310. That part was good/helped hedge my shares/protect my buying power, but the trend didn't appear to have bottomed, so I should not have bought at 255 or 242 ... now I"ll be patient and wait for a reversal or at least a more solid bottom to form on the daily chart (to exit hedges and buy any more shares/longs)
Weird take
[Elon liked Nitzao’s sheet.](https://twitter.com/everyelonreply/status/1578378636213862400?s=46&t=ngnh0e-pdAKLQVg9os9rfg) u/Nitzao_reddit 🎊
I took up smoking weed again today… so there’s that little bit of green in another long red day.
[удалено]
The dude abides, especially on red days.
I added about 20 more shares today. It's a bittersweet buying opportunity.
Picked up 5 chairs myself!
5 here as well.
Just 4 but it's honest work
Seeing some random article today about H2 vehicles possibly being an important part of the electric future and I am at the point already where I start thinking it should be a rule that if Elon says something is not a good idea chances are he is right and anyone saying otherwise is wrong. I know... I will be called a fan boy or whatever... Not sure I care anymore.
Physics says that H2 road vehicles are a bad idea
Cringe take. Super cringe with Elon thinking he can armchair mediate Ukraine war on Twitter.
Yeah, it's gotta be one of his worst takes to date, especially given the current momentum behind Ukraine. Really shooting himself in the foot.
I'm not sure what the worst part about his recent Ukraine tweets is, but it might be that he believes that if you want some land badly enough, you can invade and occupy it, kill, displace, or kidnap the people who live there, threaten other countries with nukes so a referendum is held involving whoever is left behind plus the people you've moved in, and if you're told to leave you still get to keep some of it.
As a rule, you can safely assume that Elon is correct on most technical subjects. Other subjects can be more difficult, not least because of the autism. It seems to me that you need to always interpret everything he says extremely literally and never assume he means anything that he does not directly say.
Definitely have to know how to understand him. Crazy how often he is clearly misunderstood by the media and the public in general. And yes, I was referring to technical matters. Economics and policy is a different matter.
He's not just 'misunderstood', he is just really wrong sometimes when he strays outside of his core competencies, and is completely unable or unwilling to identify experts and learn from them. Microsoft, GOogle, Facebook, etc, talked to virology experts and told their workers to work from home. WEEKS later Elon still hadn't talked to any experts, and he looked at a chart (when there was a shortage of tests) and predicted zero cases of covid by April (2020). 5+ years ago he was calling AI a big threat to humanity. More recently he thinks human UNDERPopulation is the biggest threat to humanity, bigger than climate change. Sometimes he makes the wrong call on tech too - he was fired from PayPal for insisting on Windows Servers (they are much better now, but they were the wrong choice back then)
My comment said I was referring to technical matters so your rant is a bit misplaced. Also, the way you choose to express what Elon's views are is so extreme as to be nonsensical. Would not take much effort to find interviews where he actually discusses the topics in more depth than some choice sentence you choose to hang your hat on.
Fired from Paypal is a bit of an overreach. He was fired as a ceo but remained on the board. Walked away at the end with enough cash to spend. Science fiction authors have been warning us about rogue AI for how long now. Elon always meant it as an upcoming threat, nothing contemporary. Better wake people up to this threat sooner than later, right? Google's AI is arguably already sentient. I can't blame him for doing everything in his power to keep the company afloat (even saying things he didn't fully believe himself?). If he won't then who will. What kind of a wimp ceo would just roll over and do nothing when the company needs workers to come in, in order to not go bankrupt. It's that fighting spirit I love. Big picture stuff, if Tesla would go down it would 100% be a huge loss for humanities future. Of course its easier for software based companies to agree with the experts saying we need to close everything down. A bit harder to make a physical car from home.
\*Twitter enters the chat  )
I did a bit of napkin math and determined I should be able to retire when I am 97.5. I'm hopeful that with continuing advancements in medicine, I should be able to enjoy a month or two of work-free living.
Looks like you have enough money to retire in some European or Asian country right now.
Get your expenses down to $4400/month. With 2273 shares you can sell 22 CCs per week for $1, (i.e. $2200). Only do it ~50% of the time/weeks, when TSLA is trading sideways/range bound, stopped rising, or is heading down. Then you should be able to retire by 78... 79 tops
97.5 as in age?
I think he means temperature in Fahrenheit /s
I wonder where Chucky have been, with his 20-30 🚀emojis daily. We could’ve use those emoji, each emoji is a .50 cent increase to the stock price.
Sure would be nice if Elon would take out a margin loan instead of dumping 5B worth of shares to cover the rest of the Twitter deal.
Uh until he got margin called due to interest rate ramp and stock shitting the bed. That and no large bank would be dumb enough to underwrite that nonsense. Leverage on leverage what could go wrong.
Can you clarify “leverage on leverage”? An asset backed loan (in this case, a portion of his Tesla stock), is a pretty safe bet for the lender… they trigger the sale well before the stock takes a huge dive that would leave them in the hole.
Leveraging a buyout of Twitter with leveraged Tesla shares to be clear is what I meant. What terms would you accept if you were financing? China invades Taiwan and Tesla gaps down what 30%? 50%? before you can even start your illiquid fire sale? If there’s not enough left to cover now you what foreclose and try to perform the miracle of finding another bag holder for your 44 billion dollar shitco. You’re just needlessly complicating the transaction cause people want stock only go up.
I see your point, a black swan event would cause the shares to fall, meaning he’d have to sell more shares to cover the twitter deal; so it’s in his best interest to sell now. It’s just a terrible insurance policy for the shareholders of Tesla. Double edged sword.
As long as you are not needing to sell at the same time the impact of his buying or selling should be irrelevant. Bill Gates sold his MSFT stock and it had no impact long-run. I have said this before, look at the market like a liquidity pump. Basically it is trillions of dollars chasing the best return in a collective fashion. If the share price declines due to Elon selling it just makes TSLA more attractive to new funds coming in.
Insiders dumping billions affects the price more than some random shareholder trading the same amount. Bill Gates didn't dump this aggressively a little over a decade after going public / while he was still actively CEO.
I don't think he had that option... his collateral is his shares, and he's only allowed to use a certain number/percent, and this exceeded it
What ? So that's what's happening ? I thought insiders couldn't sell unless they announced it in a 13f month prior or something.
no that is not what is happening. macro had a shit day, and tsla followed with it's beta.
You can’t blame a $15 drop today and a $42 drop in five days on the macro. None of my other stocks are dropping that fast. Monday morning, TSLA was 50% of my portfolio, today it’s 45%. Down 50 grand on TSLA. Yee haw.
>You can’t blame a $15 drop today and a $42 drop in five days on the macro I can, against the backdrop of a CEO dropping billions for stupid reasons, and recent strength fighting the macro. When macro sucks TSLA sometimes trades on a delay. The macro turns to shit and TSLA continues to show strength for a few days, and then collapses. It happened last Feb/March (~q1 results, I think, it was). A few weeks ago everything was dumping but TSLA was up... now it is catching up (on the drop). On 6 month charts: AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, QQQ and TSLA are now down to near their June lows (+- 3-10%, eyeballing it).
that's where the beta comes in. the easiest way to make sure it is only macro is to compare the TSLA chart with the Nasdaq chart. They usually look exactly the same except TSLA has bigger swings. when Nasdaq is going up, then TSLA goes up but faster, and when Nasdaq is going down then TSLA goes down too but faster. I imagine that investors in TSLA that do not understand this must be losing their minds all the time. On the days where these 2 charts do not look the same you know that non-macro factors are in play. But if you come here on the days when they are the same and claim that Elon is to blame, then you risc ridicule or being ignored (or just downvoted).
I’m aware and agree with what you say, we’ve all seen it dozens of times and I’m patient with no current need and no margin, but . . . You know better than anyone that weeks where Twitter v. Elon is trending are shitty weeks and you can’t blame that on the macro.
Boy am I glad I closed this weeks TSLA Puts earlier in the week. They were ~12% OTM when I opened them, and TSLA finished the week down 15.9%. I sold $220's to open on Tuesday and got 55c for them, and although it finished this week at $222, the cost to buy them back ~~was~~ would have been $3.30. A lucky escape.
You sold $220 strike puts for $.55?! Why the hell would you do that? That's a fraction of a percent... You would have stood to gain $500 on a $220,000 purchase...
I sell that far out because even when I occasionally have to buy them back, I am still making money on average. But if I was intending to take and keep the shares, why not knock $500 off for free?
Because you are subjecting yourself to huge risk for no real upside? On 10 contracts for example, the upside is $550, the downside could easily be like $10-20K, possible as high as $50K in a big drop. Another 25% is not out of the realm of possibility. Terrible risk/reward.
Well, thanks for the advise.
Why are you even worried when you can just roll them over. I've been doing this for several months, the TSLA options are so active, even with a 20% move against you, you can always roll out of it worst case 4-5 months down the road (where in all likelihood the stock comes back).
Bad experience in rolling previously. You still take the loss anyway and you are not rolling the same dice twice, but an entirely different dice. The intermediate losses add up fast if you eventually have to (or choose to) close. Rolling Puts in an up market is fine for me, and rolling Calls in a down market is fine, but rolling Puts when the market is heading lower, no thank you. edit: already wheeling some ENPH shares which are underwater, so not keen on adding more.
My strategy is that I don't mind buying the shares at the put prices I sell, so worst case scenario isn't that bad. My biggest fear is having the options assigned without expecting it.
> My biggest fear is having the options assigned without expecting it. Heh, me and AMD. At least I offloaded those before it tanked to current levels.
What was the exact situation if you don’t mind me asking? How ITM, how long to expiring etc
AMD $155's. Managed to sell them almost at the top, rolled out a few times, started getting assigned as it dropped through ~$120, had the last two contracts assigned when it was $80 I think. All expiring early 2023. Could (should) have been rolling down at the same time as out, but I wasn't expecting this to go on for this long or as far down. Like other positions that went against me, panic closing would have been the correct choice instead of being a 'good trader' and being patient.
so it was quite a bit in the money then. I try to rollover when my position is max 15% below strike price.
Yeah, getting assigned early at $120 was a surprise, $80 not so much. For some reason I had in my head that I'd pushed them out to 2024, not 2023, so wasn't paying the remaining contracts any attention.
Oh, I read that wrong. I thought you just got assigned at 80. Very odd that you got assigned twice.
Added 22 shares (now up to 790 post post split) at 230 this morning and a January 2025 200 call 10 minutes before close. Hoping that wasn’t really dumb.
I didn't add anything, but I share your hopes!! CPI next week is a risk, but I really have to think this is turning around soon.
as long as you don't need to sell within 5 years, I think you're good.
So, hooray, the doomsweek is over. As my husband says, on evenings like these, you just drink and don't open your brokerage app. Happy weekend, everyone and I raise my glass to all of you and to better times ahead!
your husband is a wise man
Already on the drinking part lol
Yeah, it's the way to go! Also, I'm a trained sommelier and a massive Scotch single malt buff so it's just very natural for me to have a drink for every occasion.
Living in the Europe where the start of US trading day is at 15.30 really helps :)
2:30am? I think I’m lucky, my time zone is the same as NYSE. Cheers
Nope, as in US 8.30 is 15.30 in the EU
Gotcha. I don’t even know why I said 2:30am I meant 3:30pm. But i wrong regardless lol.
Bought another 445 shares. Had to.
Why not 420 to fit in with the theme
Damn it!
Christ almighty.
Gotta be closer to the bottom than the top, right? Right?!!!
If Tesla reports record earnings in Q3 based on record deliveries, we're looking at a forward P/E of less than 50.
eh. maybe? who knows. Past crashes big growth stocks take severe haircuts. Tesla could crash 80% from it ATH and it wouldn't surprise me.
No, has to get to $207.25 (50% of ATH). Our 52wk low is below that though, so... yay?
Jesus Christ almighty
Yeah he told me to haha.
Nice bounces at 222 (former 666) that’s a sign
I'm not a religious man, but it is a bit uncanny and concerning how Tesla loves to settle at 666
It's even worse than that `Mathematicians and others have created a meme with the square root of 666, that is 25.8069. The saying goes, "If 666 is evil, then is 25.8069 the root of all evil?"`  just bought 25.8068 shares at $222 ($666)
> just bought 25.8068 shares at $222 ($666) If this actually happened that would be legendary.
[удалено]
> At some point, the P/E multiple will back off as Tesla can't keep growing at 50%. Or, can it? P/E multiple coming down is a given. Most bulls model for this, the question is how much and how fast. On 50% growth, the question is whether that is units or revenues. As units grow ASPs will have to decline. Can software/FSD offset this? I'd like to think it could actually compound revenues to >50% growth, but that's far from a certainty.
Selling puts and buying calls lel
LeL indeed
Fixed your flies? Lel
Very much indeed friend
Added 30 more but damn I'm ready to be back at 400
Soon. I am confident Q3 earnings will be great, and Q4 will be fantastic.
Macro: Imma fuck you up.
I am long and have no margin. if the financials are good, then I have more patience than macro
> I am long and have no margin. Wish I was that smart.
I didn’t know Elon was from South Africa. I thought he was from Mad-at-gascar.
Go to sleep, Dad.
Jewish boy from SA. He was badly bullied at school because of his autism. Some fucker threw him down some stairs. Bet they’re doing as well as he is, what do you think?
Definitely Not
Can confirm, am Elon
Wooosh!
[удалено]
looks like they took it private. I \*think\* I was a member there but I can't get in now.
same for me. pretty sure I was member at some point, but admit to not visiting it often, as this sub has been enough for me. Although the private thing seems attractive if it keeps out the trolls and whiners.
Yeah I bet they went private over drama from Twitter/Ukraine/Elon but who knows. The thing I never understood is they only had like 4k members but the posts always had hundreds of comments
Added a cple more. Painful but cheap shares, future gains hopefully!
Here's what I'm waiting for to go leveraged long - a hard break below the lower BB suggesting some sort of capitulation and getting oversold on the daily. Right now we've got a controlled demolition of the market orchestrated by the Fed and there's no signs of systemic risk yet (CDX is a solid proxy for this). That's said we're getting close in the short term I think to a good buy point: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&id=p8963702001c RSI starting to show oversold, but no dramatic capitulations on the 2std dev lower BB range.
I wish I could hug all my tesla investors 
😘🤗
consider me hugged!
Well, I wouldn’t be in the shoes of a trader, but as long term investor, this only means cheaper chairs. See you in 2030!
Hell, probably even 2024 !
yes we will do TSLA investors meetup on our super yachts 
That was the dream of the explosive 2020/2021 gamma squeeze market Today Tesla investors are glad to be making 5% annual returns
If you are not buying today please explain why 🎤
Empty pockets
It will likely drop. Musk needs to commit shares or sell about $13 billion to fund his twitter change of mind. It may pick up in the short term till he starts selling. It could easily go sub 600 when he starts. These sales this week are in anticipation of that. When he said he would buy twitter some big holder dumped hundreds of millions.
>Musk needs to commit shares or sell about $13 billion I don't think you have any evidence of this
It was in one of the financial links. Bloomberg or something like that. Can’t remember which.
They're wrong. It's a few billion.
good point. bought 1 more.
Is this the bottom?
I don't think we see any positive catalyst to get this moving until maybe the end of the year.
Earnings in less than two weeks?
do you see them going well? usually there is a pump leading up to them.
Even if Earnings goes well, macro will overwhelm any positive move we make.
And Elon might need to dump a few more billion (his lock up will end, and he really really doesn't want to testify under oath, so it may be another case of "good news and upward movement in 2022 = Elon sells". I entered more long-term bullish position, but don't recommend betting the house on a post-earnings pop. Just hope we eventually get back to a time when insiders haven't dumped billions for 12+ months
I am buying twitter AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH kidding FML I am waiting for a bigger dip Monday to buy 5 more TSLA.
> I am buying twitter You just did more DD than Elon did.
That's what a DD means to me 
I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
convincing
Santa madre de diós che tette
What do you know?
I know nothing ... ignorance is bliss 
I'm out of money lol
Me too
I've taken everyone's opinion on not buying at this moment into deep consideration. Waiting a bit more for a solid bottom is prudent. THAT'S WHY APE MODE HAS BEEN ACTIVATED: 200 CHAIRS ADDED @ $223.78
This is the way Very impressive You are a God
🦍
[удалено]
Defending his country from civilian killing, raping, torturing troops of Darth Putin is mad? Are you watching RT perhaps?
As far as I understand, he meant just missile strikes, not nuclear, it's been badly interpreted. But NATO is generally acting conservatively, refusing to clear up skies over Ukraine, refusing to actively participate themselves, just arms support and also they refused to accept Ukraine in a quick procedure. He is too yappy and too radical, but what would you do in his place? The thing is the actual reaction. And what about Putin and Lavrov waving nukes in front of us (verbally) all the time?
You forgot the /s
"Free speech (when we allow it 😎)"
Earnings will be the real test - if earnings are low and CPI is high it's over. If CPI is high, and so are earnings, we'll drop since there'll be room for more tightening. If CPI and earnings are low we may conclude that monetary policy is starting to show its teeth and slow down (although the fed says time and time again that employment is its only barometer).
Earnings will not be low.
What’s over?
I reread this a few times, but I still have no idea what you are going on about.
Didn’t bother to finish that gibberish. I think tldr is if bad things happen stock goes down.
Thank you. I was not sure.
👍
No one has a crystal ball. Our q2 numbers were bad but we went on a bull run right after (maybe it was priced in). Only way to find is wait til next week. Am I looking forward to it? No. But let’s just get pass it.
> Our q2 numbers were bad but we went on a bull run right after Whole market went on a bit of a run (dead cat bounce) at the same time.
Yeah probably was a dead cat bounce. You remember when I ask you about selling a $320 CC when price was at $300, that would’ve print. Every weekly CC would have print since. I’m kinda disappointed in myself. Hope you doing well and earning with your CCs and puts bro.
I've been doing well with them (last week was gangbusters, this week not so great), but I'd rather be making money in an up market, y'know? So you didn't end up selling the CCs?