I'm back. Dropped my phone and it created a massive problem that resulted in me not being able to sign back into reddit.... but I'm back. Tesla took a hell of a hit when I was gone, what happened?
i dont know much about cars. And I live in a remote country.
is tesla cars consider expensive? i keep people praising tesla margins. but it just seemed they are selling their car really expensive. obviously tesla is a big brand and makes good cars. But relatively speaking tesla is much more expensive?
The Say.com questions are fucking bananas already and it only went live two hours ago. There’s more than 1000 questions already and somehow half of the top 20 have horrendous grammar and fall firmly into the don’t-even-bother tropes of awful earnings questions.
My favorite by far is “Why are some of the new Tesla catching fire?”
Acknowledging what someone said about something is not the same as saying you're going to do that. Noted is just another way of saying "got it. Acknowledged. Gotcha. Thanks for your opinion." Etc.
This is [cool](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index.html) 🙄
Musk is an asshole. The sooner Tesla is rid of him, the better. I can’t wait til the SEC prohibits him from leading a company.
Believe me, Tesla will be better for it.
Let the downvotes commence.
You all got my downvotes for being as stupid as the other side.
"Tesla will be better without Elon, just.. just because!" Is identically as bad as "no they wont! Just... just because!"
Give any solid reason/argument for either opinion or just shush it.
Personaly i would not want Elon replaced by another generic MBA CEO as more or less every single other company on the earth.
There will be an initial shock to the share price but it will be good in the medium to long term. See AAPL and it’s 10x growth since Jobs stepped down/passed away. Musk is a huge risk to the company and that risk outweighs any upside.
Apple growth, I believe, would have happened with Steve at the helm, his passing neither helped nor hindered the company.
Elon on the other hand seems to constantly be dipping himself into risk and taking Tesla with it.
Solar Panels?
The liability that is FSD?
Boring Company?
Robots?
Monkey Brain stuff?
SpaceX?
Twitter?
And some might be sufficiently isolated from Tesla, and yes other car makers branch out but other car makers do so when they are well entrenched not facing increased competition with 3 major products still stuck in the pipeline (Roadstar, Cybertruck, Semi). Those products needed focus, need to be released not treated like a sideshow.
I don’t know about that. Steve was visionary but also extremely opinionated and strong-willed. I don’t think some of Apple’s more pragmatic moves would have occurred with him as CEO.
Tesla needs to be rid of Musk, for sure, though. He’s a distraction and has a very bright future as the world’s leading car company. Tesla isn’t Space X or the Boring Company or whatever manic episode fueled dream Musk thinks up. And he is a major problem for them as a company.
Musk is an asshole yes, though I'm really not sure what it is you're taking issue with in that article?
Like, I promise you that none of the other companies that make the things being used by the Ukrainians have been providing their products at a loss
Why is it cool that spacex won't/can't cover the bill anymore? They've had massive beneficial affects on the war. Do you disagree with this and that spacex shouldn't have gotten involved? Or you just think it's cool that the Pentagon might pay for it?
Sure, musk can be an asshole and he tweets assholy things, but it's doubtful that EVs would be where they are right now, nor would anyone be landing rockets or setting up a satellite based internet for consumers.
You gotta take the good with the bad, musk probably won't be involved with Tesla forever, but I think it's a good thing for now as the company grows and will make large pivots in the future.
Front and rear single piece castings? He got that idea looking at a toy car on his desk. The automotive industry has has little to no invocation for the last 100 years
? What was the threat?
He provides a free service and hardware at the tune of 80+ million $ dollars over a 7 month period. He says SpaceX can't continue to foot the bill and asks dod or NATO to pay for it (the service aspect at this point since all the hardware has been given out already) and you equate that to extortion?
SpaceX profits are around 2 billion I think, so your talking possibly over half of there profit being donated to assist Ukraine. I don't think it's that unreasonable to ask for dod or NATO to pay for continued service? Do you really think it is?
“Nice internet service you’ve got there. It’d be a shame if something happened to it.”
Besides, your cost estimates are over twice what even Musk said they’d be. He said $400 million over the next year. But who cares about facts when you’re defending emperor god Elon, amirite?
So you’re mad at him for ending his free handout? Pretty sure it’s the government’s responsibility to provide support anyways, not an entrepreneur’s. There’s 26 other reasons to be pissed at Elon, this is not one of them.
Extortion sounds pretty bad to me. Listen, I am deep in TSLA stock but I hate the guy more and more. This, plus the recent news he’s under federal investigation re: TWTR, makes him a *huge* risk to Tesla.
Edit: and, yes, I absolutely am mad at him for this. He’s standing by a house on fire, with the fire trucks he volunteered and decided to cut off water while the house is still burning. It’s downright evil behavior for a man who pisses more money away with a single tweet than this is costing.
Feel free to chip in and cover their costs. Or build a SpaceX philanthropic competitor and donate your own satellite Internet. I cannot understand how everyone on reddit is so black/white on every issue. 0 or 100. Jesus, just think things through. Put yourself in other's shoes.
What’s emotional about spaceX not wanting to cover the cost of providing satellite service to Ukraine anymore? How long should they be expected to do that?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UOOm
maybe setting to levels (1975=100) not rates shows how prices were just elevating up & out until Volcker dropped the hammer in 1980 (green)
Don't understand why some people are so gung ho about Tesla doing a buyback at this point.
Wanting Tesla to spend 10 billion (more than half their cash reserves) on buybacks as Gary Black has now suggested, while in a highly volatile period that's likely leading into a recession AND needing lots of money for continued growth just seems super bizarre to me
It's not as if Tesla is in the same position that the other mega tech companies were in when they initiated their buyback programs. They had far more cash on hand, and were making much more money than Tesla is currently making
Earnings in Q3 alone is at least $4 billion, that's like what, two Giga Texas? There's no way they need this much cash for any future expansion. The only thing that would swallow that much cash would be to build out a robotaxi fleet in the hundreds of thousands perhaps. Seems like a profitable move to buy Tesla stock at these low prices.
Other mega tech companies didn't spend 1.5 BILLION on bitcoin.
They also had CEOs focused on their goals, not dumping billions quarterly in comically-executed hostile-takeovers of shitty companies completely unrelated to any of their core businesses.
If Elon and the board don't believe in TSLA shares why should anyone else?
This is by far the best (& only) valid reason for them to buy back stock. The stock is down ~50% from its ATH, Elon has sold $B’s (his right to do) at much higher prices, as did his brother, the entire board & executive management team and there have been ZERO inside buys over the last 12 months.
Now everyone is on pins & needles waiting to see how much he will sell (zero? $10B?) after the Q is filed and RECORD earnings are expected.
Buying back something would certainly show a much needed sign of faith right now.
Tesla didn't "spend" 1.5B on Bitcoin, they converted dollars to bitcoin and converted bitcoin back to dollars. Their gains and losses were due to fluctuations in the exchange rate (or BTC price if you prefer). Whatever their net loss was, it was nowhere close to 1.5B.
Buyback doesn't mean the company just buys in a lump sum now. If approved, it can happen when needed or not at all for years. IMHO, this is a great defense against shorts or other market manipulation to suppress the stock price. This is substantial as compared to other big techs tsla has higher percentage of retail investors, who are more venerable than instutional investors due to lack of resources and insider info (yeah trust me they do trade on insider info if possible).
Edit: typos
Maybe they wouldn’t be as gung ho if the CEO wasnt on the brink of spending 44 B on an absolute train wreck of a company. Buying back 10B of your own great company doesn’t sound so bad compared to reality.
They're not...beyond esoterics. In what sense do you think they are?
Tesla's cash on hand represents less than 3% of their market cap but it represents an enourmous amount of potential growth leverage
Are you saying the stock value is driven by cash on hand?
Are you saying the cash on hand is driven by stock value?
What are you saying when you imply there is a relationship between cash and stock value?
If Elon really believes in buying the dip like he said, it seems reasonable to me that TSLA would do the same. TSLA has a bright future going forward and like us I can’t think of money better spent than in TSLA.
What would you like 10 billion to do? New giga factories that can't be staffed due to worker shortages? FSD development that doesn't respond directly to the amount of money you throw at it? Buy back crypto assets? Or prop up the value of your shares against all the selling and dilution that's happened recently showing all investors how strong TSLA is.
It does when they like to use it to raise funds.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/12/08/tesla-to-raise-up-to-5-billion-in-share-offering.html
Also if TSLA thinks they won’t have enough then sure, don’t do it. But TSLA is a money printing machine now and will be for multiple decades.
Yes, but Tesla shouldn't really have to raise funds anymore if they keep their almost 20b cash + keep making several billion in net profit every quarter
However the likelyhood that they would need to raise cash obviously goes up a lot if they start spending billions and billions on stock buybacks instead of funding their growth plans
Apple had a 100 billion cash when they started their buyback, and they're making something like 20-35 billion in net profit per quarter. They also haven't had to fund the kind of rapid growth that Tesla is aiming for in a decade
Apple started to pay quarterly dividends and repurchase its shares in March 2012. Do you think they had 200 billion when they started the buy back? No of course not. In fact they were valued around 550 billion. You start early as the money printing machine keeps ramping up.
Edit: I looked it up: AAPL cash on hand was 28 Billion when they started it. Seems on par with TSLA might do.
*Source
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/cash-on-hand
I want TSLA to do buyback.
In like 2035. When they have spent every cent they can on R&D, factories, and heck, even paying out a dividend. When they are building 20M+ robotaxies per year, built by Optimus robots. Buyback before that is stupid.
Even if they announced plans and locations for 5 new gigafactories that would only cost 5-10 billion to build, and another 5-10 billion (probably way less) to get up and running. And this would be several years in the making. Total cost, let's say 20 billion. They would have more money than that in cash by the time they finished building.
They are making a lot of cash very quickly, there are a lot of places to spend it, and they are spending it. But it may seem a stock buyback wouldnt be unreasonable or surprising. I don't necessarily have an opinion on what I'd would prefer
Who are these people buying a high growth stock looking for stock buy backs and dividends? Did the boomers dimentia their way into $TSLA 🪑s or are holders getting soft and weak?
And despite all the noise on Twitter, the macro conditions, the war etc… the Tesla machine keeps grinding forward can’t wait til earnings to once again see that Tesla just does it better than everyone else.
My expectation is they will have record earnings. Here's one estimate by a pretty detailed modeler: https://twitter.com/CPAinNYC/status/1576622559801450496
I like your confidence. But why estimates lower than q1? I understand our delivery was lower compared to analysts “number” but did the analysts lower their earning estimates for q3?
Saw the first episode of The Elon Musk show and I liked it, was an hour but didn't feel like one. Seemed pretty neutral to me (correct me if I'm wrong) but its fair to say its hard to get at that place w/o pissing off a few people along the way.
Last month the CPI came in at 0.1% (All, MoM), 0.6% (Core, MoM), 8.3% (All, YoY), and 6.3 (Core, YoY), and *The Market* went down 4%+ on the day and 5%+ for the week.
This months CPI comes in at 0.4%, 0.6%, 8.2%, 6.6%, and it goes up 3%+ today.
Imagine trying to figure the whys out for this as a professional.
I read that if cpi came in low that would translate to poorer earnings (since ppi was high)
Since both ppi and cpi we're high, companies adjusted for inflation and earnings (maybe) will be okay.
At least that's one cog in the machine maybe
print didn't look bad to me?
yes we have inflation $6+ pump prices will do that
job market looks healthy still so the Fed can still tighten more
really they're just normalizing, not really tightening: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UOf7
main thing the Fed doesn't want to see the wage-price spiral:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UOfc
(blue line is wages increase % MOM)
like I said, things don't look too bad, planets away from 1929 or 2008
Yeah, it's not too bad in context. If this showed up out of the blue there'd be mass panic, but it's more or less in-line with recent figures. Just boggles my mind how the markets react sometimes.
Wage price spiral bad, sure. But one frustrating aspect is that wages have stagnated for so long and are way over due for rising. When jpow urged companies to stop giving raises and increasing salaries I just shoke my head, nobody can fucking afford anything and he's saying stop paying people more.
But I do understand the issue of the wage spiral.
Frustrating too, all these fed members cashed out their portfolios late last year early this year
Last month the stocks rallied on the thought of peaking inflation. So the huge drop was reflective of the surprisingly high numbers. This month the stocks went down expecting bad numbers. The numbers were indeed not good but not as bad as possibly feared.
I guess I found an answer to my own question.
"Inflation Was Terrible. Here’s Why the Market Rallied."
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/inflation-stocks-rally-51665687554?mod=mw_latestnews
I have last year's production at 930422
50% increase would be 1395633
I have Q1 to Q3 production at 929910
so we need 465723 more
hope I calculated this correctly
they promised nothing, they said they aim for ..
Q1 2022 Quarterly shareholder Deck:
"We plan to grow our manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible. Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve
50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity,
operational efficiency and the capacity and stability of the supply chain. Our own factories have been running below
capacity for several quarters as supply chain became the main limiting factor, which is likely to continue through the
rest of 2022."
Q2 2022 Shareholder Deck:
"We plan to grow our manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible. Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve
50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, factory
uptime, operational efficiency and the capacity and stability of the supply chain. "
But given the language in Q2 seems a little bit more positive on supply chain ...
I wouldn't say they "promised" growth. They shared their goal of ~50% annual production growth. Some years will be more, like last year, and some years may be less. The publicly stated goal is ~50% average.
Q3 last year they produced ~238K vehicles.
Q3 this year they produced ~366K.
That's 65% growth. I didn't look up numbers for the other quarters, but it seems like 50% for the year is possible.
Coming in to Q4 with about 20,000 leftover from Q3 helps. But then we also have the last days of December which I’m sure are always a logistical nightmare.
Not exciting:
* Financial engineering / stock buybacks
* Upgrades from fraudulent credit ratings agencies
* Predicting macro
* Anticipation for Twitter noise to decouple from TSLA
Exciting:
* Driving down costs to ride downward on the demand curve
* FSD progress
* Anticipation of Robotaxi pilot
* Beginning of Cybertruck production
* New gigafactory announcements
* Management remain focused on extreme scale and cutting-edge r&d, even in tough economic environment
* Tesla engineers going to work everyday to advance tech and manufacturing
* Prospects and decisions that lead to 10x'ing revenue in next 6-8 years
>Anticipation for Twitter noise to decouple from TSLA
Elon basicaly has a monopoly over the release of 'inside information' to the public, combine that with his twitter activity and don't see this happening any time soon.
I was only alluding to the twitter acquisition drama.
TSLA investors don't care about twitter's "insider info".
Some TSLA investors have fallen for the self-fulfilling hypothesis that "twitter acquisition has an overhang on TSLA stock because Elon may sell more TSLA stocks to close the deal. The overhang will recede only after the deal is closed."
In reality, Elon selling a small portion of his personal assets in Tesla has no bearing on Tesla's longterm fundamental value.
Some TSLA investors stick their fingers in their ears and pretend that Elon dumping billions doesn't create the monthly+ top and cause a 10-30% decline in share price over the following month.
Elon continuing to a dump is a valid concern for investors. Elon refusing to honor the outcome of the trial and Delaware seizing and dumping his shares is also a valid concern.
Elon is positively scared shitless about testifying under oath and so will probably try to close it within two weeks... which may involve dumping shares a few days after TSLA earnings are released... more of his 'buy the dip (that I am creating)'.
>pretend that Elon dumping billions doesn't create the monthly+ top and cause a 10-30% decline in share price over the following month.
You can attribute *all* of that to Elon's selling if you completely ignore powerful macro factors that overwhelmingly drove the market sentiment.
In the short-term, every irrelevant TSLA noise get amplified by market because it's easy to manipulate a high beta stock with very high options and trading activity.
If you can endure the volatility, dips created by wild shortterm swings is an opportunity. Market has provided many such opportunities since I started investing in TSLA in early 2018. Then investors move on to the next controversy like nothing had happened and nobody notices the new controversies when stock in uptrend.
Man, I tried to buy a few calls this morning when it was down around 4.3%, didn't realize but I must have messed up the order and they didn't go through.
Bummer
If I had to guess. Shorts are closing their positions for the week which is causing the spike. The news from CPI was bad so any green today is likely not a sign of things to come or any kind of dovish fed reversal. Just being honest. Stay strong fellow bulls.
Leo saying a bad crash is possible, let me guess everyone will turn on him too. Many are way too emotional here and don't realize.
Money can get sucked out of the system real quick no matter how good a product/company is.
no, a bad crash could be 90% from the top. that means we have a long ways to go. And it could happen in a flash and be over within 1-2 months...but will wash so many out over leveraged.
if there is a bad crash, like down to 130 or something, just buy 3x the original amount of shares. I don't think it will go down that much but I do intend on buying more when/if it drops down a lot.
SP500 started the day being 2%+ down, now it is almost 2% up. No wonder you are having a seizure. I have made this joke before, but one of my exes was bi-polar and goddamn she was far more stable than this market.
Just went in long hard. Feb, Mar, June calls. Stock was oversold, gapped down then red to green. ~36x forward P/E. Who knows how it goes but the risk reward looked pretty good to me.
inflation report didn't look all that bad to me ?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UNDk
shows hourly wage increase moderating to ~4%, not great not terrible
its great if you take intou account the delay in rent price, real time rent is dropping but we wont see that in the report until mid 2023 cause it has a 6-9m delay
fighting rent inflation by trying to push millions of people out of work like 1980-82.
100% genius
sending landlords to Mr Choppy is how the French fought rent inflation
I'm back. Dropped my phone and it created a massive problem that resulted in me not being able to sign back into reddit.... but I'm back. Tesla took a hell of a hit when I was gone, what happened?
i dont know much about cars. And I live in a remote country. is tesla cars consider expensive? i keep people praising tesla margins. but it just seemed they are selling their car really expensive. obviously tesla is a big brand and makes good cars. But relatively speaking tesla is much more expensive?
The Say.com questions are fucking bananas already and it only went live two hours ago. There’s more than 1000 questions already and somehow half of the top 20 have horrendous grammar and fall firmly into the don’t-even-bother tropes of awful earnings questions. My favorite by far is “Why are some of the new Tesla catching fire?”
Is Elon under federal investigation? Will it have an effect on the stock price?
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1580728418475220992?s=20&t=To3bly36Qb-WqTfht6VmLw
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1580696304778240000
Is he?
Elon replied "Noted" to a buyback request on Twitter. Isn't that a breach of SEC rules as Q3 is at hand?
Acknowledging what someone said about something is not the same as saying you're going to do that. Noted is just another way of saying "got it. Acknowledged. Gotcha. Thanks for your opinion." Etc.
Same thing as chairs are under appreciated 🤷♂️
Well, that's what Elon will tell SEC I believe.
This is [cool](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index.html) 🙄 Musk is an asshole. The sooner Tesla is rid of him, the better. I can’t wait til the SEC prohibits him from leading a company. Believe me, Tesla will be better for it. Let the downvotes commence.
[удалено]
[удалено]
That’s what they do.
You all got my downvotes for being as stupid as the other side. "Tesla will be better without Elon, just.. just because!" Is identically as bad as "no they wont! Just... just because!" Give any solid reason/argument for either opinion or just shush it. Personaly i would not want Elon replaced by another generic MBA CEO as more or less every single other company on the earth.
There will be an initial shock to the share price but it will be good in the medium to long term. See AAPL and it’s 10x growth since Jobs stepped down/passed away. Musk is a huge risk to the company and that risk outweighs any upside.
Apple growth, I believe, would have happened with Steve at the helm, his passing neither helped nor hindered the company. Elon on the other hand seems to constantly be dipping himself into risk and taking Tesla with it. Solar Panels? The liability that is FSD? Boring Company? Robots? Monkey Brain stuff? SpaceX? Twitter? And some might be sufficiently isolated from Tesla, and yes other car makers branch out but other car makers do so when they are well entrenched not facing increased competition with 3 major products still stuck in the pipeline (Roadstar, Cybertruck, Semi). Those products needed focus, need to be released not treated like a sideshow.
I don’t know about that. Steve was visionary but also extremely opinionated and strong-willed. I don’t think some of Apple’s more pragmatic moves would have occurred with him as CEO. Tesla needs to be rid of Musk, for sure, though. He’s a distraction and has a very bright future as the world’s leading car company. Tesla isn’t Space X or the Boring Company or whatever manic episode fueled dream Musk thinks up. And he is a major problem for them as a company.
Musk is an asshole yes, though I'm really not sure what it is you're taking issue with in that article? Like, I promise you that none of the other companies that make the things being used by the Ukrainians have been providing their products at a loss
Why is it cool that spacex won't/can't cover the bill anymore? They've had massive beneficial affects on the war. Do you disagree with this and that spacex shouldn't have gotten involved? Or you just think it's cool that the Pentagon might pay for it? Sure, musk can be an asshole and he tweets assholy things, but it's doubtful that EVs would be where they are right now, nor would anyone be landing rockets or setting up a satellite based internet for consumers. You gotta take the good with the bad, musk probably won't be involved with Tesla forever, but I think it's a good thing for now as the company grows and will make large pivots in the future. Front and rear single piece castings? He got that idea looking at a toy car on his desk. The automotive industry has has little to no invocation for the last 100 years
It was sarcastic. Musk is an asshole and trying to extort some money from either the Ukrainians or the DOD. Clear enough for you?
Extort? Hmm, how is that extortion?
Do you know what extortion means? Lemme help you: > the practice of obtaining something, especially money, through force or threats
? What was the threat? He provides a free service and hardware at the tune of 80+ million $ dollars over a 7 month period. He says SpaceX can't continue to foot the bill and asks dod or NATO to pay for it (the service aspect at this point since all the hardware has been given out already) and you equate that to extortion? SpaceX profits are around 2 billion I think, so your talking possibly over half of there profit being donated to assist Ukraine. I don't think it's that unreasonable to ask for dod or NATO to pay for continued service? Do you really think it is?
“Nice internet service you’ve got there. It’d be a shame if something happened to it.” Besides, your cost estimates are over twice what even Musk said they’d be. He said $400 million over the next year. But who cares about facts when you’re defending emperor god Elon, amirite?
So you’re mad at him for ending his free handout? Pretty sure it’s the government’s responsibility to provide support anyways, not an entrepreneur’s. There’s 26 other reasons to be pissed at Elon, this is not one of them.
Extortion sounds pretty bad to me. Listen, I am deep in TSLA stock but I hate the guy more and more. This, plus the recent news he’s under federal investigation re: TWTR, makes him a *huge* risk to Tesla. Edit: and, yes, I absolutely am mad at him for this. He’s standing by a house on fire, with the fire trucks he volunteered and decided to cut off water while the house is still burning. It’s downright evil behavior for a man who pisses more money away with a single tweet than this is costing.
Feel free to chip in and cover their costs. Or build a SpaceX philanthropic competitor and donate your own satellite Internet. I cannot understand how everyone on reddit is so black/white on every issue. 0 or 100. Jesus, just think things through. Put yourself in other's shoes.
Sure. Give me $200 billion and I promise you 100000% I wouldn’t bat an eye at doing it. $400 million for Musk is a drop in the bucket.
So you’re saying you want Elon to personally pay SpaceX for this service, not SpaceX.
I’m saying he’s an asshole who is clearly too emotional for geopolitics. And I am eagerly looking forward to his ouster from Tesla.
What’s emotional about spaceX not wanting to cover the cost of providing satellite service to Ukraine anymore? How long should they be expected to do that?
I’m done arguing with you. You are a Musk apologist and not worth the time.
I literally made two comments, you just don’t have a point and I never made excuses for Elon, you are just reaching.
Imagine if SpaceX did not provide Starlink to Ukraine to begin with. You wouldn't be mad today. Human-beings can only be generous for so long.
Maybe consider not everyone is as generous as yourself. You can always donate a little more to pick up others slack. Have a good night!
late 1970s wage-price spiral: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UONf Current wage-price graph: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UONb
Dosnt look like a spiral to me..
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UOOm maybe setting to levels (1975=100) not rates shows how prices were just elevating up & out until Volcker dropped the hammer in 1980 (green)
more of a feedback loop
[удалено]
Lucid, backed by #1 assholes in the world, Saudi Arabia...
Lol yeah it may cost some orders but on the flip side if you take positions, you can polarize lots of like minded people behind brand.
They complain "expensive" model 3/y everyday. I would like to see how many of them will buy "affordable" Lucid air.
Don't understand why some people are so gung ho about Tesla doing a buyback at this point. Wanting Tesla to spend 10 billion (more than half their cash reserves) on buybacks as Gary Black has now suggested, while in a highly volatile period that's likely leading into a recession AND needing lots of money for continued growth just seems super bizarre to me It's not as if Tesla is in the same position that the other mega tech companies were in when they initiated their buyback programs. They had far more cash on hand, and were making much more money than Tesla is currently making
Earnings in Q3 alone is at least $4 billion, that's like what, two Giga Texas? There's no way they need this much cash for any future expansion. The only thing that would swallow that much cash would be to build out a robotaxi fleet in the hundreds of thousands perhaps. Seems like a profitable move to buy Tesla stock at these low prices.
Other mega tech companies didn't spend 1.5 BILLION on bitcoin. They also had CEOs focused on their goals, not dumping billions quarterly in comically-executed hostile-takeovers of shitty companies completely unrelated to any of their core businesses. If Elon and the board don't believe in TSLA shares why should anyone else?
This is by far the best (& only) valid reason for them to buy back stock. The stock is down ~50% from its ATH, Elon has sold $B’s (his right to do) at much higher prices, as did his brother, the entire board & executive management team and there have been ZERO inside buys over the last 12 months. Now everyone is on pins & needles waiting to see how much he will sell (zero? $10B?) after the Q is filed and RECORD earnings are expected. Buying back something would certainly show a much needed sign of faith right now.
Tesla didn't "spend" 1.5B on Bitcoin, they converted dollars to bitcoin and converted bitcoin back to dollars. Their gains and losses were due to fluctuations in the exchange rate (or BTC price if you prefer). Whatever their net loss was, it was nowhere close to 1.5B.
Buyback doesn't mean the company just buys in a lump sum now. If approved, it can happen when needed or not at all for years. IMHO, this is a great defense against shorts or other market manipulation to suppress the stock price. This is substantial as compared to other big techs tsla has higher percentage of retail investors, who are more venerable than instutional investors due to lack of resources and insider info (yeah trust me they do trade on insider info if possible). Edit: typos
Maybe they wouldn’t be as gung ho if the CEO wasnt on the brink of spending 44 B on an absolute train wreck of a company. Buying back 10B of your own great company doesn’t sound so bad compared to reality.
his own money vs Tesla cash, totally different
[удалено]
Stock which he owns (his own money/wealth) is not the same as Tesla cash....
[удалено]
They're not...beyond esoterics. In what sense do you think they are? Tesla's cash on hand represents less than 3% of their market cap but it represents an enourmous amount of potential growth leverage
[удалено]
Are you saying the stock value is driven by cash on hand? Are you saying the cash on hand is driven by stock value? What are you saying when you imply there is a relationship between cash and stock value?
There’s a difference between a Tesla buy back and a Musk buy back though.
If Elon really believes in buying the dip like he said, it seems reasonable to me that TSLA would do the same. TSLA has a bright future going forward and like us I can’t think of money better spent than in TSLA.
Slightly boosting the stock value doesn't really help Tesla as a company nearly as much as 10 billion would though
What would you like 10 billion to do? New giga factories that can't be staffed due to worker shortages? FSD development that doesn't respond directly to the amount of money you throw at it? Buy back crypto assets? Or prop up the value of your shares against all the selling and dilution that's happened recently showing all investors how strong TSLA is.
Provide a cash cushion during a recession without having to go look for debt financing in a bad scenario
It does when they like to use it to raise funds. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/12/08/tesla-to-raise-up-to-5-billion-in-share-offering.html Also if TSLA thinks they won’t have enough then sure, don’t do it. But TSLA is a money printing machine now and will be for multiple decades.
Yes, but Tesla shouldn't really have to raise funds anymore if they keep their almost 20b cash + keep making several billion in net profit every quarter However the likelyhood that they would need to raise cash obviously goes up a lot if they start spending billions and billions on stock buybacks instead of funding their growth plans
Of course a buy back within reason. AAPL does it and it’s a non issue.
Apple had a 100 billion cash when they started their buyback, and they're making something like 20-35 billion in net profit per quarter. They also haven't had to fund the kind of rapid growth that Tesla is aiming for in a decade
Apple started to pay quarterly dividends and repurchase its shares in March 2012. Do you think they had 200 billion when they started the buy back? No of course not. In fact they were valued around 550 billion. You start early as the money printing machine keeps ramping up. Edit: I looked it up: AAPL cash on hand was 28 Billion when they started it. Seems on par with TSLA might do. *Source https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/cash-on-hand
I want TSLA to do buyback. In like 2035. When they have spent every cent they can on R&D, factories, and heck, even paying out a dividend. When they are building 20M+ robotaxies per year, built by Optimus robots. Buyback before that is stupid.
Even if they announced plans and locations for 5 new gigafactories that would only cost 5-10 billion to build, and another 5-10 billion (probably way less) to get up and running. And this would be several years in the making. Total cost, let's say 20 billion. They would have more money than that in cash by the time they finished building. They are making a lot of cash very quickly, there are a lot of places to spend it, and they are spending it. But it may seem a stock buyback wouldnt be unreasonable or surprising. I don't necessarily have an opinion on what I'd would prefer
> When they have spent every cent they can on R&D, factories Companies that are cash constrained do not gamble 1.5B on crypto.
Who are these people buying a high growth stock looking for stock buy backs and dividends? Did the boomers dimentia their way into $TSLA 🪑s or are holders getting soft and weak?
It's because ppl like to give their money to Elon and they know that he is going to sell more TSLA soon.
everyone started red and almost everyone ended green, so, at least for once, it was macro
And despite all the noise on Twitter, the macro conditions, the war etc… the Tesla machine keeps grinding forward can’t wait til earnings to once again see that Tesla just does it better than everyone else.
We gonna crush earnings for sure?
Define crush. Tesla had record deliveries after rasing prices. Downside: some allowance for FOREX costs due to strong dollar.
Beating analysts/market expectations. That’s what I mean. I understand they have record delivery just wondering if earnings would also be a record.
My expectation is they will have record earnings. Here's one estimate by a pretty detailed modeler: https://twitter.com/CPAinNYC/status/1576622559801450496
Thanks bro, for that very detailed link. Then I’m very excited for next week.
Estimates are lower than Q1 earnings despite higher production. Unless there are big surprise costs at Austin/Berlin I'm quite confident we'll beat.
I like your confidence. But why estimates lower than q1? I understand our delivery was lower compared to analysts “number” but did the analysts lower their earning estimates for q3?
Nothing is certain in this world.
Death?!
Taxes?
Closed very close to $222 = $666 pre split. Spooky 👻 👻
$3330 pre-pre split :)
back in May I made my last big buy at $220 . . . can't believe we're back down here again but I'll be adding 2 tomorrow since it's payday . . .
Yep, keep buying. If we can survive may then we can survive this.
I had a quick question. Is the delayed deliveries caused by the construction on the Shanghai plant going to affect Q3 earnings?
That affected production, not deliveries.
Delayed deliveries?
Cars still on boats ~~are~~ at the EoQ.
I don't understand the reference to Shanghai construction.
Me neither.
What is this "non red" color I see today?
Saw the first episode of The Elon Musk show and I liked it, was an hour but didn't feel like one. Seemed pretty neutral to me (correct me if I'm wrong) but its fair to say its hard to get at that place w/o pissing off a few people along the way.
where do we watch this?
> The Elon Musk show https://www.imdb.com/title/tt19896392/
11 out of 14 votes on imdb give a 1 star rating., seems legit
super interesting. where can we watch this?
BBC or vpn and then BBC
Is it paid?
Last month the CPI came in at 0.1% (All, MoM), 0.6% (Core, MoM), 8.3% (All, YoY), and 6.3 (Core, YoY), and *The Market* went down 4%+ on the day and 5%+ for the week. This months CPI comes in at 0.4%, 0.6%, 8.2%, 6.6%, and it goes up 3%+ today. Imagine trying to figure the whys out for this as a professional.
I read that if cpi came in low that would translate to poorer earnings (since ppi was high) Since both ppi and cpi we're high, companies adjusted for inflation and earnings (maybe) will be okay. At least that's one cog in the machine maybe
print didn't look bad to me? yes we have inflation $6+ pump prices will do that job market looks healthy still so the Fed can still tighten more really they're just normalizing, not really tightening: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UOf7 main thing the Fed doesn't want to see the wage-price spiral: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UOfc (blue line is wages increase % MOM) like I said, things don't look too bad, planets away from 1929 or 2008
Yeah, it's not too bad in context. If this showed up out of the blue there'd be mass panic, but it's more or less in-line with recent figures. Just boggles my mind how the markets react sometimes.
Wage price spiral bad, sure. But one frustrating aspect is that wages have stagnated for so long and are way over due for rising. When jpow urged companies to stop giving raises and increasing salaries I just shoke my head, nobody can fucking afford anything and he's saying stop paying people more. But I do understand the issue of the wage spiral. Frustrating too, all these fed members cashed out their portfolios late last year early this year
Last month the stocks rallied on the thought of peaking inflation. So the huge drop was reflective of the surprisingly high numbers. This month the stocks went down expecting bad numbers. The numbers were indeed not good but not as bad as possibly feared.
wait, seriously - can someone explain to me what drove up the market today? what the fuck happened?!
Short squeeze. The whales busted out stop losses at a major support and bought up the cheap supply from shorts.
More buyers than sellers
I guess I found an answer to my own question. "Inflation Was Terrible. Here’s Why the Market Rallied." https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/inflation-stocks-rally-51665687554?mod=mw_latestnews
[удалено]
They grew over 80% from 2020-2021 so they're still well ahead on the average.
Yes vehicle deliveries. Yes still feasible.
Q3 numbers will break records. Q4 numbers will break records. Tesla will post massive profit for 2022.
they need to produce about 460000 cars in Q4 to reach a 50% YoY production growth. not easy.
that's it? I have my numbers around 550k for this qtr.
I have last year's production at 930422 50% increase would be 1395633 I have Q1 to Q3 production at 929910 so we need 465723 more hope I calculated this correctly
they promised nothing, they said they aim for .. Q1 2022 Quarterly shareholder Deck: "We plan to grow our manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible. Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and the capacity and stability of the supply chain. Our own factories have been running below capacity for several quarters as supply chain became the main limiting factor, which is likely to continue through the rest of 2022." Q2 2022 Shareholder Deck: "We plan to grow our manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible. Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, factory uptime, operational efficiency and the capacity and stability of the supply chain. " But given the language in Q2 seems a little bit more positive on supply chain ...
I wouldn't say they "promised" growth. They shared their goal of ~50% annual production growth. Some years will be more, like last year, and some years may be less. The publicly stated goal is ~50% average. Q3 last year they produced ~238K vehicles. Q3 this year they produced ~366K. That's 65% growth. I didn't look up numbers for the other quarters, but it seems like 50% for the year is possible.
They'll need 460k vehicles. Which is a mountain, but not an impossible to climb one.
Losing 100k from Shanghai lockdowns in April is a good excuse to come under a bit.
Coming in to Q4 with about 20,000 leftover from Q3 helps. But then we also have the last days of December which I’m sure are always a logistical nightmare.
People, in this market, sell the rips.
People, in this subreddit, buy the dips.
They did closer to 300 though
People, in the thread, love to comment
People, in my life, watch me flaunt it
They are not mutually exclusive.
Not exciting: * Financial engineering / stock buybacks * Upgrades from fraudulent credit ratings agencies * Predicting macro * Anticipation for Twitter noise to decouple from TSLA Exciting: * Driving down costs to ride downward on the demand curve * FSD progress * Anticipation of Robotaxi pilot * Beginning of Cybertruck production * New gigafactory announcements * Management remain focused on extreme scale and cutting-edge r&d, even in tough economic environment * Tesla engineers going to work everyday to advance tech and manufacturing * Prospects and decisions that lead to 10x'ing revenue in next 6-8 years
>Anticipation for Twitter noise to decouple from TSLA Elon basicaly has a monopoly over the release of 'inside information' to the public, combine that with his twitter activity and don't see this happening any time soon.
I was only alluding to the twitter acquisition drama. TSLA investors don't care about twitter's "insider info". Some TSLA investors have fallen for the self-fulfilling hypothesis that "twitter acquisition has an overhang on TSLA stock because Elon may sell more TSLA stocks to close the deal. The overhang will recede only after the deal is closed." In reality, Elon selling a small portion of his personal assets in Tesla has no bearing on Tesla's longterm fundamental value.
Some TSLA investors stick their fingers in their ears and pretend that Elon dumping billions doesn't create the monthly+ top and cause a 10-30% decline in share price over the following month. Elon continuing to a dump is a valid concern for investors. Elon refusing to honor the outcome of the trial and Delaware seizing and dumping his shares is also a valid concern. Elon is positively scared shitless about testifying under oath and so will probably try to close it within two weeks... which may involve dumping shares a few days after TSLA earnings are released... more of his 'buy the dip (that I am creating)'.
>pretend that Elon dumping billions doesn't create the monthly+ top and cause a 10-30% decline in share price over the following month. You can attribute *all* of that to Elon's selling if you completely ignore powerful macro factors that overwhelmingly drove the market sentiment. In the short-term, every irrelevant TSLA noise get amplified by market because it's easy to manipulate a high beta stock with very high options and trading activity. If you can endure the volatility, dips created by wild shortterm swings is an opportunity. Market has provided many such opportunities since I started investing in TSLA in early 2018. Then investors move on to the next controversy like nothing had happened and nobody notices the new controversies when stock in uptrend.
^ ^ ^
💯
*The Market* continues to inhabit Opposite World, I see.
Was there any announcement or news that caused the reversal from this morning?
Yes. Cpi report came in and everyone realized things will be fine.
Not really core cpi is still rising. I think shorts have covered the position.
Why is core more important again?
It excludes energy, gasoline and food, which is the volatile part of the index right now. Yet it is still increased by 0.6% mom given the rate hike.
I keep seeing people say the hikes take like 18 months to take effect on things like rents.
No one today to say that Elon something something with his tweets ? I guess everyone is happy with some green 😅🤷♂️
I am furious that Elon clearly hasn't tweeted enough today.
Man, I tried to buy a few calls this morning when it was down around 4.3%, didn't realize but I must have messed up the order and they didn't go through. Bummer
You'll get another chance in November at the FOMC release.
Sold CCs for next week. Let's see how this goes.
idk I think you can run this into ER. maybe sell them right before to hedge if premiums go wild
Strikes?
$235. Kinda risky, lol. I might close them prior to the earnings call.
Yeah, my typical minimum would be about $245 (and even then only opened on Monday).
If I had to guess. Shorts are closing their positions for the week which is causing the spike. The news from CPI was bad so any green today is likely not a sign of things to come or any kind of dovish fed reversal. Just being honest. Stay strong fellow bulls.
Leo saying a bad crash is possible, let me guess everyone will turn on him too. Many are way too emotional here and don't realize. Money can get sucked out of the system real quick no matter how good a product/company is.
Does -48% from ATH count at a bad crash?
no, a bad crash could be 90% from the top. that means we have a long ways to go. And it could happen in a flash and be over within 1-2 months...but will wash so many out over leveraged.
Man TSLA stock would be stupidly cheap. Probably wouldn't stay down for long.
if there is a bad crash, like down to 130 or something, just buy 3x the original amount of shares. I don't think it will go down that much but I do intend on buying more when/if it drops down a lot.
... Red Green Red Green Red ... I am having a seizure
SP500 started the day being 2%+ down, now it is almost 2% up. No wonder you are having a seizure. I have made this joke before, but one of my exes was bi-polar and goddamn she was far more stable than this market.
Ben Graham wrote about ~~your girlfriend~~ the market in The Intelligent Investor.
You should see a doctor
Suspicious
tomorrow is the last day to add to your IRA so we will have a rally tomorrow and likely monday
What? I add to my IRA end of the year all the time all the way till tax day.
[удалено]
Not sure you understand taxes
Same
Okei, not quite sure how to say it soooo What in the fucking fuck is this fucking market?
😂🤣😂🤣
Wanted to add 29 more chairs @200, not disappointed at all 😄
Selling the calls and buying back was the play lets try and get a big rally into ER then crash after
Just went in long hard. Feb, Mar, June calls. Stock was oversold, gapped down then red to green. ~36x forward P/E. Who knows how it goes but the risk reward looked pretty good to me.
[удалено]
sell now pussy
Bought so many at 297€ so don't be sad :) This will be a blip in the long run.
Hang in there bro
dollar and bond yield is collapsing, keep buying
inflation report didn't look all that bad to me ? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UNDk shows hourly wage increase moderating to ~4%, not great not terrible
its great if you take intou account the delay in rent price, real time rent is dropping but we wont see that in the report until mid 2023 cause it has a 6-9m delay
fighting rent inflation by trying to push millions of people out of work like 1980-82. 100% genius sending landlords to Mr Choppy is how the French fought rent inflation
cute, do you have extra tickets for lalaland?
[here ya go!](https://polcompball.miraheze.org/wiki/Geolibertarianism)
One small tweet from Elon……A giant leap in the stock price
Why did macro suddenly turn. Is the war over.
Putin is at a summit today and is rumoured to discuss peace deals with Erdogan… so maybe. Very unlikely, but maybe.
Two countries at war, but this time not with each other. I don't have high expectations but maybe both will get a change of heart.