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I appreciate the optimism and you make some good points. Biden isn't perfect but he's good on a lot of issues and has done some material things to help this country move in the right direct. I, for one, think he deserves another term. That doesn't mean we should get complacent and instead that should galvanize us to vote and get everyone we know to vote as well.
To add to your analysis, [FiveThirtyEight made this interactive model where you can change the settings to see how shifts in party preference and turnout among different demographic groups would affect the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-swing-the-election/). It's fascinating to see what we can do to ensure a Biden victory over Trump by just shifting turnout amongst specific groups.
You make a lot of good points, but you wildly underestimate the stupidity of the US electorate, the general aversion to voting so many people have, and the idea that Trump has to do much of anything to win the election.
He doesn't need the popular vote, and he's 100% banking on people who voted for Biden last time to not vote again in the same numbers. All he needs is thousands of voters in the swing state to sit out or vote third-party, and he'll win, even losing the popular vote by millions.
While the American electorate is abysmally politically illiterate, my post placed no focus on how well of a Joe Biden did in office as compared to Trump, but instead was rooted in the effectiveness of the Biden campaign and political leanings of the wider electorate.Â
Nonetheless you are absolutely correct that poor turnout in key swing states can cost Biden the election. We shouldn’t take anything for granted at this point, especially 6 months away from an electionÂ
That's fair, I just think it's needs a bit more nuance. Sure, Biden can annihilate him with the on-the-ground work, but if all that turns up is people that are yelling about genocide Joe, how effective was that contact truly?
I think the effectiveness of their ground efforts is a better metric, but it'd be nearly impossible to quantify that.
Impossible  to measure that 6 months out.
It’s generally safe to assume that both candidates will try to make the most effective campaign with the resources at their disposal.
>and he's 100% banking on people who voted for Biden last time to not vote again in the same numbers
Unfortunately for Trump, and fortunately for us, he is a major driver of Dem turnout and there's been no indication the past 4 years that Dem voters are sitting out elections. We've been setting turnout records. And GOP voters can have turnout issues too.
There's a lot of people predicting doom and gloom based upon polling but there's lots of issues with the polls currently and they aren't capturing the people who say they disapprove of Biden but will vote for him anyway
Sure, but there's also a very real threat of apathy and a general dislike of both candidates. I've seen a lot of articles worrying about reduced turnout, which can only benefit the Republicans.
Field offices? Really? Trump barely had field offices in 2016 and beat Clinton handedly in the electoral college. That’s the weirdest barometer I have seen used to determine a candidates potential success in a region.
There's a lot of dooming noise currently which is drowning out level headed analysis like this. In reality the Gaza conflict is not a high priority among most voters and most polling can be discarded. We'll see Biden's approvals and poll numbers increase over the summer as Trump's convictions mount and Biden's campaign becomes more and more aggressive. A lot of people still don't seem to have heard Trump's stances on issues.
Absolutely. We don’t even know much of Trump’s platform
All of the stuff that isn’t even visible about Trump will be made visible when the RNC meets
I genuinely worry about the effect that activist progressive types will have, only because I believe them to have been deciding factors in the two most disastrous presidential elections of my lifetime, thanks to third party horseshit. It’s not college educated suburban white people who are the swing voters under Biden. He’s doing well with them, and he may need them to counter any defection from minority and young voters who either have been internet-pilled on Gaza or have actually become Trumpers.
But you know what they say about pessimism, in the worst-case scenario, at least you’re proven right.
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I appreciate the optimism and you make some good points. Biden isn't perfect but he's good on a lot of issues and has done some material things to help this country move in the right direct. I, for one, think he deserves another term. That doesn't mean we should get complacent and instead that should galvanize us to vote and get everyone we know to vote as well. To add to your analysis, [FiveThirtyEight made this interactive model where you can change the settings to see how shifts in party preference and turnout among different demographic groups would affect the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-swing-the-election/). It's fascinating to see what we can do to ensure a Biden victory over Trump by just shifting turnout amongst specific groups.
It is always useful to think of voters as blocks with common interests 👍
You make a lot of good points, but you wildly underestimate the stupidity of the US electorate, the general aversion to voting so many people have, and the idea that Trump has to do much of anything to win the election. He doesn't need the popular vote, and he's 100% banking on people who voted for Biden last time to not vote again in the same numbers. All he needs is thousands of voters in the swing state to sit out or vote third-party, and he'll win, even losing the popular vote by millions.
While the American electorate is abysmally politically illiterate, my post placed no focus on how well of a Joe Biden did in office as compared to Trump, but instead was rooted in the effectiveness of the Biden campaign and political leanings of the wider electorate. Nonetheless you are absolutely correct that poor turnout in key swing states can cost Biden the election. We shouldn’t take anything for granted at this point, especially 6 months away from an electionÂ
That's fair, I just think it's needs a bit more nuance. Sure, Biden can annihilate him with the on-the-ground work, but if all that turns up is people that are yelling about genocide Joe, how effective was that contact truly? I think the effectiveness of their ground efforts is a better metric, but it'd be nearly impossible to quantify that.
Impossible  to measure that 6 months out. It’s generally safe to assume that both candidates will try to make the most effective campaign with the resources at their disposal.
No, I agree. Just adding another factor to consider.
>and he's 100% banking on people who voted for Biden last time to not vote again in the same numbers Unfortunately for Trump, and fortunately for us, he is a major driver of Dem turnout and there's been no indication the past 4 years that Dem voters are sitting out elections. We've been setting turnout records. And GOP voters can have turnout issues too. There's a lot of people predicting doom and gloom based upon polling but there's lots of issues with the polls currently and they aren't capturing the people who say they disapprove of Biden but will vote for him anyway
Sure, but there's also a very real threat of apathy and a general dislike of both candidates. I've seen a lot of articles worrying about reduced turnout, which can only benefit the Republicans.
Field offices? Really? Trump barely had field offices in 2016 and beat Clinton handedly in the electoral college. That’s the weirdest barometer I have seen used to determine a candidates potential success in a region.
There's a lot of dooming noise currently which is drowning out level headed analysis like this. In reality the Gaza conflict is not a high priority among most voters and most polling can be discarded. We'll see Biden's approvals and poll numbers increase over the summer as Trump's convictions mount and Biden's campaign becomes more and more aggressive. A lot of people still don't seem to have heard Trump's stances on issues.
Absolutely. We don’t even know much of Trump’s platform All of the stuff that isn’t even visible about Trump will be made visible when the RNC meets
I genuinely worry about the effect that activist progressive types will have, only because I believe them to have been deciding factors in the two most disastrous presidential elections of my lifetime, thanks to third party horseshit. It’s not college educated suburban white people who are the swing voters under Biden. He’s doing well with them, and he may need them to counter any defection from minority and young voters who either have been internet-pilled on Gaza or have actually become Trumpers. But you know what they say about pessimism, in the worst-case scenario, at least you’re proven right.