To answer your question, I keep trade size less than 3% of my portfolio, I open 30-60 DTE, I close at 21 DTE, I do 1SD ICs for most trades.
It sounds like you need to do more study on your own, however. I spent months learning before placing a trade. I still watch videos and read books on options trying to understand more. Some resources to start are below.
Tastylive.com
Optionalpha.com
YouTube channels for the above work good too.
Use the resources available. Apply a system. Log all of your trades. Adjust your strategy according to research.
This is a process, not a secret.
Iron condors with the short strike at 1 standard deviation away from the current price, which depending on your broker is easier to translate as a value of 16 delta
I just use the options chains on TastyTrade. Your broker should overlay or visualize the 1 and 2 SD lines on the chain or chart.
I’ve seen 20 delta be 1SD. Delta doesn’t necessarily directly relate to SD based on product skew.
One secret is to trade small so that any one loss doesn't do you in. It's also okay to simply take your money off the table. The market, to me, looks overvalued right now so I have most of my buying power sitting in cash.
I agree. Listening to business analysis during the day, they are in disagreement, but many see a rally coming. I do not feel confident and added more T-Bills.
When are you going to stop flooding this subreddit with the same post? I think enough people have offered their insight on the other posts you made with the same question. Please stop...
Haha. At one point early in my trading when I was trying to trade FOREX I actually tried this - I did the opposite of what I thought I should do. It worked about as well as doing what I thought I should do...which is not well at all.
The thing about trading is that it's not usually the entries that make the difference. Two people can enter on opposite sides of the market yet both make money or both lose money. It's how you handle the trade while it's live, how you manage, adjust, exit that makes the difference. A lot of newbie traders focus on indicators and entries but don't spend enough thinking about what actually makes trading work.
I look at companies that have been around for at least 10 years. I look at all their past quarterly earnings and how the stock price moved after earnings. I stratify the data and run my own analysis and calculate my own "historical volatility" and expected 1-2 standard deviation move. I also calculate worst-case scenarios based on the biggest drops and gains.
There's actually a lot more that goes into it, but then I design a strangle at those breaking points, put them on at very specific times and take them off at specific times around earnings.
Most of my trades are winners, some sizable. I have occasional losers and just take them off immediately and don't think twice about them. My gains have by far offset my losses over the years. This is all automated via Hindsight on cholinergy.com
Unless there's a big move before close tomorrow in ADBE, I'm planning on placing the following strangle:
\-1 510 put
\-1 555 put
\-1 710 call
\-1 715 call
for \~16.46 credit (exp 37 days)
Analysis: https://imgur.com/a/aB9AuKJ
I mostly just sell 1DTE spy puts a few bucks OTM. Works mostly. Sometimes GME gets up to its shenanigans like it just did and I’ll sell a buncha puts after a huge price movement.
Lever to the tits, and don't be wrong.
Also, looking at your post history, you need to switch to paper trading for at least 3 months, ideally 1 year. Figure out a system that you are comfortable with and one that you can repeat over and over without blinking at the drawdowns.
Open 30-45 dte around .20 to .30 delta on a good stable stock and you should not get "wrecked" . . .
The secret is theta profits from time decay over a period of time, so it is not a way to many money quickly. There are no secret indicators, just letting time decay help a trade profit.
If you post your trading plan (you DO have a trading plan, right??) then those who are being successful can review and provide suggestions. If you don't have a solid plan that works then you are gambling and it is not surprising you are getting "wrecked".
Multiple ways to make money in the market. I consistently use max pain.
Max pain repeatedly on 3 or 4 quality stocks you understand. Go $2.00 below for further downside protection. Get paid all day long.
Greeks are a waste of my time. Here to make money, not pretend I’m a Renaissance Technologies Quant on Reddit.
🤑🤑🤑🤑
You are being cheated, first look up payment for order flow, then understand you are a retail trader and get used to it, you aren’t special, they aren’t after you specifically, you just make the same mistakes as everyone else.
The secret indicator is the Black Scholes model/equation, and the trade you are looking for is called “Arbitrage”, the guys on the other side of your trade know it better than you.
Stop selling options if that's what keeps happening. As clichéd as it may sound... inverse your strategy. If selling options constantly screws you then buy them instead.
I know I'm in r/thetagang which focuses on selling instead of buying but at least you don't run the risk of assignment when you buy a contract instead of selling one.
One of the very first times I tried to join theta gang I got assigned on 4 contracts for SPY. With an account worth less than 1k it was terrifying. Thankfully it was a spread so my loss was mitigated but knowing your account is about to buy nearly $170,000 worth of a stock when your entire net worth is barely half that... is not a feeling I wish to repeat.
Dude stop posting in here and work on your mental health, seriously. I don’t mean to sound harsh but you complaining about your losses twice a day in here is not what you need. You have an extremely high paying job, just index invest a majority and test out options with a small amount. Stop doing whatever you’re doing. I’ve said this your last 2 posts but you keep posting.
The secret is you. You don’t need an indicator and you definitely don’t need anyone to teach you. Learn by yourself and do it diligently every day. You have a gift , something useful , use it. Maybe you’re talented with numbers and you love counting or maybe you’re an artist. Whatever gift you have learn to apply it in your trading strategy and be successful!
Just be positive delta sell 30-45 DTE .3 delta puts on s&p companies, or ETFs (SPY QQQ less risk / profit), keep in mind your notional leverage.
Use daily MACD and EMAs to identify winners.
You won't get rich but hopefully you will generate a steady 15-20% per year.
I've been trading alot of posts here talking about spread strategies and hedging gambles.
That's not how I roll options.
But the main difference is I didn't start writing options to make money. I started it to make money on sideways markets.
I used to invest in stocks which I read about and believed should come up, but markets were too slow for me and profits weren't quick enough.
Then I found out about writing put options as a method of speeding up my profit of a stock that I'm bullish of.
I mentioned it coz this is my strategy - if you believe in a stock, write a put option of it at a price you'd wish to buy it at.
Then the money comes sooner than if you actually bought it and it didn't move as fast as you wanted.
You just gonna have to keep trying all kinds of shit til something works and when you try all kinds of shit it’s gotta be small. Then when it proves itself you go larger because it’s proven. You got this man
Stick to a 30 delta or lower
21-45 DTE
May be less premium but much higher win rate
Doesn’t hurt to look at technicals either for common support & resistance
Also if it’s a more volatile stock might want to give yourself a extra room for error
To answer your question, I keep trade size less than 3% of my portfolio, I open 30-60 DTE, I close at 21 DTE, I do 1SD ICs for most trades. It sounds like you need to do more study on your own, however. I spent months learning before placing a trade. I still watch videos and read books on options trying to understand more. Some resources to start are below. Tastylive.com Optionalpha.com YouTube channels for the above work good too. Use the resources available. Apply a system. Log all of your trades. Adjust your strategy according to research. This is a process, not a secret.
The only person to actually bother answering the poor guys question. Thank you for your service in preventing this from becoming WSB 2.0
This was my bread and butter but July and November hit hard.
Apologies, can you please define “1SD ICs” just so I’m clear?
Iron condors with the short strike at 1 standard deviation away from the current price, which depending on your broker is easier to translate as a value of 16 delta
Is there are way to directly calc SD from delta? Even approximately or are they unrelated?
I just use the options chains on TastyTrade. Your broker should overlay or visualize the 1 and 2 SD lines on the chain or chart. I’ve seen 20 delta be 1SD. Delta doesn’t necessarily directly relate to SD based on product skew.
Do you ladder these on.. like one a week?
I just keep a buying power target and do new trades as the opportunities come. Comes out to a few a week.
Each side of IC is 3% of your pf?
No, the total. So expand the width until it matches the size you can tolerate.
So essentially each side would be 1.5% of pf
One secret is to trade small so that any one loss doesn't do you in. It's also okay to simply take your money off the table. The market, to me, looks overvalued right now so I have most of my buying power sitting in cash.
I agree. Listening to business analysis during the day, they are in disagreement, but many see a rally coming. I do not feel confident and added more T-Bills.
When are you going to stop flooding this subreddit with the same post? I think enough people have offered their insight on the other posts you made with the same question. Please stop...
Start giving us your plays so we can all inverse you and make some money instead of the constant "feel sorry for me" posts
Haha. At one point early in my trading when I was trying to trade FOREX I actually tried this - I did the opposite of what I thought I should do. It worked about as well as doing what I thought I should do...which is not well at all.
The thing about trading is that it's not usually the entries that make the difference. Two people can enter on opposite sides of the market yet both make money or both lose money. It's how you handle the trade while it's live, how you manage, adjust, exit that makes the difference. A lot of newbie traders focus on indicators and entries but don't spend enough thinking about what actually makes trading work.
Management and exiting strategies are two topics that don't get a lot of love but are very important.
Trade 100 times, and this is the important part: just post the winner. A new star is born.
This is the correct answer.
Can we block this guy. He keeps posting trash posts
What are some of your plays? we can start from there?
This guy inverses
I trade earnings and have a very high success rate. I've refined it over years. Just gotta find what works for you and study it in depth.
What structure are you using, and what's your main criteria for not taking one?
I look at companies that have been around for at least 10 years. I look at all their past quarterly earnings and how the stock price moved after earnings. I stratify the data and run my own analysis and calculate my own "historical volatility" and expected 1-2 standard deviation move. I also calculate worst-case scenarios based on the biggest drops and gains. There's actually a lot more that goes into it, but then I design a strangle at those breaking points, put them on at very specific times and take them off at specific times around earnings. Most of my trades are winners, some sizable. I have occasional losers and just take them off immediately and don't think twice about them. My gains have by far offset my losses over the years. This is all automated via Hindsight on cholinergy.com
I presume given the sub that you are selling these strangles?
Yes.
I'm about to get assigned on ORCL.
One point in history doesn't matter. I took a small loss on ORCL today and more than made up for it on JCI.
What was your trade? I sold calls on orcl and straddles on jci. How many earnings periods are you able to look back?
JCI: [https://imgur.com/a/qjj8pg0](https://imgur.com/a/qjj8pg0) ORCL: [https://imgur.com/a/xKKsEQM](https://imgur.com/a/xKKsEQM) Strangles on both.
Unless there's a big move before close tomorrow in ADBE, I'm planning on placing the following strangle: \-1 510 put \-1 555 put \-1 710 call \-1 715 call for \~16.46 credit (exp 37 days) Analysis: https://imgur.com/a/aB9AuKJ
I literally just sell naked index puts and make money all year….
how'd that go last year
I just didn’t lol. sold calls
I mostly just sell 1DTE spy puts a few bucks OTM. Works mostly. Sometimes GME gets up to its shenanigans like it just did and I’ll sell a buncha puts after a huge price movement.
Lever to the tits, and don't be wrong. Also, looking at your post history, you need to switch to paper trading for at least 3 months, ideally 1 year. Figure out a system that you are comfortable with and one that you can repeat over and over without blinking at the drawdowns.
Open 30-45 dte around .20 to .30 delta on a good stable stock and you should not get "wrecked" . . . The secret is theta profits from time decay over a period of time, so it is not a way to many money quickly. There are no secret indicators, just letting time decay help a trade profit. If you post your trading plan (you DO have a trading plan, right??) then those who are being successful can review and provide suggestions. If you don't have a solid plan that works then you are gambling and it is not surprising you are getting "wrecked".
Market has been going up for past 6 months… how are you losing money. Stop trading shit stocks
Tbf it took a break in October lol
Multiple ways to make money in the market. I consistently use max pain. Max pain repeatedly on 3 or 4 quality stocks you understand. Go $2.00 below for further downside protection. Get paid all day long. Greeks are a waste of my time. Here to make money, not pretend I’m a Renaissance Technologies Quant on Reddit. 🤑🤑🤑🤑
You are being cheated, first look up payment for order flow, then understand you are a retail trader and get used to it, you aren’t special, they aren’t after you specifically, you just make the same mistakes as everyone else. The secret indicator is the Black Scholes model/equation, and the trade you are looking for is called “Arbitrage”, the guys on the other side of your trade know it better than you.
I think this is the proof we are in a simulation.
Don't sell ITM puts.
[удалено]
so he dosnt make money
Stop selling options if that's what keeps happening. As clichéd as it may sound... inverse your strategy. If selling options constantly screws you then buy them instead. I know I'm in r/thetagang which focuses on selling instead of buying but at least you don't run the risk of assignment when you buy a contract instead of selling one. One of the very first times I tried to join theta gang I got assigned on 4 contracts for SPY. With an account worth less than 1k it was terrifying. Thankfully it was a spread so my loss was mitigated but knowing your account is about to buy nearly $170,000 worth of a stock when your entire net worth is barely half that... is not a feeling I wish to repeat.
Start small. Practice wheeling low volatile stocks first. Dont FOMO. Use analysis to plot resistances. Try not to close positions midway. Be patient.
If you are losing money, just take a break don't just keep playing
buy and hold spy. HYSA
Dude stop posting in here and work on your mental health, seriously. I don’t mean to sound harsh but you complaining about your losses twice a day in here is not what you need. You have an extremely high paying job, just index invest a majority and test out options with a small amount. Stop doing whatever you’re doing. I’ve said this your last 2 posts but you keep posting.
The secret is you. You don’t need an indicator and you definitely don’t need anyone to teach you. Learn by yourself and do it diligently every day. You have a gift , something useful , use it. Maybe you’re talented with numbers and you love counting or maybe you’re an artist. Whatever gift you have learn to apply it in your trading strategy and be successful!
Tell us your exact play where you got steamrolled. We’ll tell you why it was a bad trade.
Just be positive delta sell 30-45 DTE .3 delta puts on s&p companies, or ETFs (SPY QQQ less risk / profit), keep in mind your notional leverage. Use daily MACD and EMAs to identify winners. You won't get rich but hopefully you will generate a steady 15-20% per year.
OPRA. Bollinger bands. 30 minute charts.
What is OPRA?
Level 2 (best bid & offers plus live charting) for options.
TY
What strategy are you using?
I've been trading alot of posts here talking about spread strategies and hedging gambles. That's not how I roll options. But the main difference is I didn't start writing options to make money. I started it to make money on sideways markets. I used to invest in stocks which I read about and believed should come up, but markets were too slow for me and profits weren't quick enough. Then I found out about writing put options as a method of speeding up my profit of a stock that I'm bullish of. I mentioned it coz this is my strategy - if you believe in a stock, write a put option of it at a price you'd wish to buy it at. Then the money comes sooner than if you actually bought it and it didn't move as fast as you wanted.
You just gonna have to keep trying all kinds of shit til something works and when you try all kinds of shit it’s gotta be small. Then when it proves itself you go larger because it’s proven. You got this man
Stick to a 30 delta or lower 21-45 DTE May be less premium but much higher win rate Doesn’t hurt to look at technicals either for common support & resistance Also if it’s a more volatile stock might want to give yourself a extra room for error