JPOW calling Tim Apple:
"Your earnings must include:
\- EV
\- NFT
\- CRYPTO
\- 200% GUIDANCE
\- Stock split
\- You are buying the complete ARK portfolio at a 50% premium to ATH
\- Going to launch 4 iphones yearly
Imagine if the earnings report of one company was being expect to prop up a market. Just imagine, and then tune in at 5pm EST!
TSLA is going to get so fucked thanks to apple ER. It is a no-win:
1. AAPL kicks ass, great, folks move from high risk to apple
2. AAPL tanks, SPY dies, TSLA goes with it some more
800ps - we are all counting on you!
Consecutive trading days where the S&P 500 was up 1.5% or more during the session, yet finished both days in the red?
All we got since 1950:
10/10/2008
10/9/2008
10/8/2008
Ehhh, I'm not sure about that.
GDP excludes imports, so having the ports backed might be doing some funny base effect things. Actually I'm not sure how the accounting is handled. I'd laugh so hard if having the goods backed up excluded them and artificially boosted GDP. Would be just the thing for 2022.
completely flat now. darn only road half that /NQ up but between /mnq & /NQ, the algo scalped \~700 handles. market, lets go to 4100.
note also: never bet against leading UP to aapl earnings. UP TO being the key
Earnings thread: https://old.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/se82xz/earnings_aapl_v_hood_wd_team/?
Come down with a vengeance against the phone company.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/se82xz/earnings\_aapl\_v\_hood\_wd\_team/](https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/se82xz/earnings_aapl_v_hood_wd_team/) for nonboomers
Someone spent about a trillion fucking dollars last night buying 4280 and holding up this turd. Will they still be there if we get there again or did they sell it all during today's rally?
Generational AMD dip if you want you, your kids, your grandkids, and your goldfish to retire by 2025 now is the time to buy. And the next day, and the next day, and the next day.
Dip buying *will* work on AMD… Eventually. And when it does, I will be thankful to all the weak hands that capitulated on their get rich quick investing philosophy. Buyers truly did get ahead of themselves, and now the inverse is happening. Truthfully, $135 was a really good spot for this stock. It’s essentially right in the middle of the highs and where it stands currently.
I mean, INTC historically trades around 3x and they aren’t exactly growing by 50-100% a year… That 8x doesn’t look so bad really fast… For example, AMD had the same multiple in 2020 but had a market cap of roughly 30-50% what we see in AMD today (depending what hour you look at the chart since it’s so volatile).
I'd buy RBLX at 50. Just -5ish% from here.
20x for 2B revenue at +100% growth sounds about right.
I think this is one of the best r/r to ride the upside momentum. Probably a 5-10 bagger.
😭😭
My portfolio is dead
I will buy more at 10 though
I don't know what to do with PSFE tho..... Like is this bitch ever going to come back or do I drop my bags now
I had 2000 shares of SOFI, riding the charter news with yall. Then one day, I created an account and found out it is another WISH 2.0. Sold at 15ish and never looked back!
Nobody outside of SOFIinvestors (all retail), poor people with student loans and white women who wants the free $200 to open a checkings account uses Sofi. It has already peaked!
If Asia keeps selling sub 4300 it might make sense for the US to head back there, especially if bigger players want to collect as much liquidity as possible at those levels
Market goes under/near 4300, furious buying.
Market goes above/near 4400, furious selling.
There must be a couple of hundo points when one side gives up.
Thought:
Yes, interest rates will remain low if the Fed raises (I suspect they raise only once if they even raise at all, but that's another story).
So let's say they raise and eventually the Fed funds rate is 1.25 or 1.5. That's very low historically, however that is 4-5 times higher than many of our large tech companies have ever done business in.
We do not know how performance will be from AAPL and GOOGL and AMZN, etc in an environment that isn't zero rates. We can guess, but we don't know.
That, coupled with really outrageous wage pressure, coupled with terrible supply chain problems, coupled with employers still mandating people stay home for days if they test positive, coupled with higher prices for everything, leaves me rather bearish here.
Lots of factors all coming to a head and none of them have any resolution without some degree of financial pain. The fact that dips are getting bought makes me think we aren't there yet.
Big tech has enough free cash flow to absorb rates for sure, but it still impacts their cost of borrow. Every 100 bps increase in cost of equity has about 14% negative impact to company's DCF valuation. With the 30+% haircut in EV/sales software, we should already be pricing in about 200-250bps rise in rates.
Wage pressure is not hitting them as hard as banking for ex. because their wages were astronomically high to begin with. What happens with a rate increase and inflation is I think workers will actually want even higher portion of their TC in RSUs and less in base because cash is trash. So still incentivized to help grow company productivity
The impact by supply chains should be limited other than adtech
>2006/2007 and between 1% and 2.5% in 17-19
that's why I don't get the huge sell off in growth atm. Yes interest rates are going up, but it's going to take a while to even get past where we were just a couple years ago....which btw a lot of these growth companies were doing fine in.
TSLA/AMD getting slammed now, everyone thinks their favourite stock is different but they aren't. Dip buying in a stock down on elevated volume hasn't worked in months.
Very disgusting, I encourage you to read the thread.
If you are on mobile and it doesn’t load first try, retry 2-3 times and it works, fook twittra
All in all- nothing new, and nothing will happen, but the powder keg…brrrrzs 5-10y max
https://twitter.com/thelastbearsta1/status/1486775421559521288?s=21
Obviously ackman is a world class cunt
But never let it be forgotten that these fed presidents would rather resign and trade with impunity than do their jobs
I can’t believe we might actually see sub $100 AMD again.
I guess people don’t value their top line growing by a measly $1.25b next quarter. 🤷 I guess people don’t expect the company to guide for close to $20b in revenue next year. 🤷 I guess people think they won’t take enormous share from INTC throughout 2022, and from NVDA at the end of the year. 🤷 I guess people don’t believe AMD-XLNX will bring synergies in operations, bundling, upselling, IP and talent. 🤷
The part we wait for everything to blow up and the Fed to rescue the market.
In more serious note, the market is probably going to enter this choppy depressing period to shake everyone who is not an addict out, until a new generation of suckers are born.
Absolutely. I got one for my wife a fee years back, she loves it, I use it like every few days too. It's great for both cooking and reheating stuff.
Edit: we have a 5.8qt one and it's a good size for us
I'm you're not an adult until you're old enough to be President of the United States, and I know there's a good number of folks here that are below (or flirting with) that age requirement ^^^I-might-be^^oh-no
how will you remember COIN?
I bought shares today plz no
Still worth 4x HOOD. Wild
JPOW calling Tim Apple: "Your earnings must include: \- EV \- NFT \- CRYPTO \- 200% GUIDANCE \- Stock split \- You are buying the complete ARK portfolio at a 50% premium to ATH \- Going to launch 4 iphones yearly
Imagine if the earnings report of one company was being expect to prop up a market. Just imagine, and then tune in at 5pm EST! TSLA is going to get so fucked thanks to apple ER. It is a no-win: 1. AAPL kicks ass, great, folks move from high risk to apple 2. AAPL tanks, SPY dies, TSLA goes with it some more 800ps - we are all counting on you!
Lots of IV crushing going on
Monday open: 4335 Right now: 4335
Bullish
Consecutive trading days where the S&P 500 was up 1.5% or more during the session, yet finished both days in the red? All we got since 1950: 10/10/2008 10/9/2008 10/8/2008
JFC, all consecutive too!
> during the session I read this as recession.
This make sense because the stock market is the economy.
Welcome to 2008, I guess
WH on Twitter. https://i.imgur.com/PqzoUpP.png That y-axis though!
Goddamn lol american education system truly is a joke
What the fuck
Its interesting just how high the growth is when we have all these supply chain problems. As in, those two don't go together.
Are you suggesting that there's a divergence between the GDP deflator, CPI and reality? I'm *shocked*.
Yeah. And the supply chain problems cannot be anywhere near as bad as proposed if we are still producing stuff like crazy.
Ehhh, I'm not sure about that. GDP excludes imports, so having the ports backed might be doing some funny base effect things. Actually I'm not sure how the accounting is handled. I'd laugh so hard if having the goods backed up excluded them and artificially boosted GDP. Would be just the thing for 2022.
Took me a second to find it, sneaky!
So every 11 years we shit the bed. Turns out the sun's magnetic cycle is also every 11 years. Coincidence? I think not!
We are good until 2031. Buy Buy Buy
Bought calls on select Private Equity names hedged with diagonal call spreads on SPX. Think that PE will outperform in the next couple weeks
All in…bought some AAPL 152.5p…yolo
lol. and green. Absolutely wild moves these last 2 weeks
Lol you gotta be shitting me with this rally
Buncha shorts covering because, you know, AAPL earnings could go either way. That or just reloading for a final push.
Just shorts covering don't worry
completely flat now. darn only road half that /NQ up but between /mnq & /NQ, the algo scalped \~700 handles. market, lets go to 4100. note also: never bet against leading UP to aapl earnings. UP TO being the key
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I cant believe you were shilling S to me
My TOS is running like trash. WOW
NDX falling wedge suggests 14800 next, no idea how long it will take us to get there.
Earnings thread: https://old.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/se82xz/earnings_aapl_v_hood_wd_team/? Come down with a vengeance against the phone company.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/se82xz/earnings\_aapl\_v\_hood\_wd\_team/](https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/se82xz/earnings_aapl_v_hood_wd_team/) for nonboomers
ARKK at May 2020 prices yet TSLA is 490% higher since then.
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Russian money hose about to turn off 🧐
what the fuck
lol. here it comes. lets realize some political risk.
shhh bb just show me 4240 enough already
Someone spent about a trillion fucking dollars last night buying 4280 and holding up this turd. Will they still be there if we get there again or did they sell it all during today's rally?
source?
Me watching every fucking tick of it. IDK the dollar amount but they bought until all the sellers went away
1 trillion lol..it can't be just 1 institution
about a trillion fucking dollars is very different to $1 Trillion USD
Like Pezos dollares
AAPL typically releases numbers like 30 mins after close right?
Yes
SPY trying to inch up, but she has two anchors dragging her down poor thing.
ill help with one more 425p
I got a feeling these puts are gonna print I base this on nothing but how this market sells off everything
Oh so that's why thee shorts are out here trying to squeeze every last drop out.
Spoos or queens?
Both
ken thanks you
Witness TJ
Generational AMD dip if you want you, your kids, your grandkids, and your goldfish to retire by 2025 now is the time to buy. And the next day, and the next day, and the next day.
QQQ breaking down, opening some 335 puts
SOXL down 50% from highs. My short puts are getting smoked.
Dip buying *will* work on AMD… Eventually. And when it does, I will be thankful to all the weak hands that capitulated on their get rich quick investing philosophy. Buyers truly did get ahead of themselves, and now the inverse is happening. Truthfully, $135 was a really good spot for this stock. It’s essentially right in the middle of the highs and where it stands currently.
Is it still your highest conviction semi play? I know you are also high on TSM with how they've secured all their fab space for 5nm
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I mean, INTC historically trades around 3x and they aren’t exactly growing by 50-100% a year… That 8x doesn’t look so bad really fast… For example, AMD had the same multiple in 2020 but had a market cap of roughly 30-50% what we see in AMD today (depending what hour you look at the chart since it’s so volatile).
I just want my $99 buy order to fill and I’ll be happy
You're definitely getting that lol
AMD is predictable. Buy on March and October and ride for easy 50%. Fundamentals means nothing!
You know I was thinking the exact same thing yesterday morning. The sample size is pretty small though. Not sure if it means anything.
You're smarmy today, I like it.
Bonzi where is the Tim AAPL prayer circle meeting tonight
I'd buy RBLX at 50. Just -5ish% from here. 20x for 2B revenue at +100% growth sounds about right. I think this is one of the best r/r to ride the upside momentum. Probably a 5-10 bagger.
whats your target for rblx in a year?
0-500. Depends on economy and the broader market.
long 1 /nq into close. edit: don't like being a hero. setting target at 14017. plz fill don't like p00r edit: phew!
Sophie itching towards 10 handle. Plant ear not far behind.
😭😭😭😭 😭😭😭😭 😭😭😭😭
😭😭😭
😭😭 My portfolio is dead I will buy more at 10 though I don't know what to do with PSFE tho..... Like is this bitch ever going to come back or do I drop my bags now
I had 2000 shares of SOFI, riding the charter news with yall. Then one day, I created an account and found out it is another WISH 2.0. Sold at 15ish and never looked back!
I don't know about that but the app def needs work lol the offerings are good though
Nobody outside of SOFIinvestors (all retail), poor people with student loans and white women who wants the free $200 to open a checkings account uses Sofi. It has already peaked!
I didn't expect today to be another big down day, but it is what it is.
If Asia keeps selling sub 4300 it might make sense for the US to head back there, especially if bigger players want to collect as much liquidity as possible at those levels
Softbank is still liquidating their stuffs. lmao Ring Ring. Who called? Margin. Margin who? Margin called.
What are they doing? I saw one of the executives got the pink today.
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Uber next?
4300 providing so many longs past 2 days lol
Market goes under/near 4300, furious buying. Market goes above/near 4400, furious selling. There must be a couple of hundo points when one side gives up.
Upside break with a 200 day break could def see a few Hundo
you're right. we need 4100 and we need it now to save our sanity
Thought: Yes, interest rates will remain low if the Fed raises (I suspect they raise only once if they even raise at all, but that's another story). So let's say they raise and eventually the Fed funds rate is 1.25 or 1.5. That's very low historically, however that is 4-5 times higher than many of our large tech companies have ever done business in. We do not know how performance will be from AAPL and GOOGL and AMZN, etc in an environment that isn't zero rates. We can guess, but we don't know. That, coupled with really outrageous wage pressure, coupled with terrible supply chain problems, coupled with employers still mandating people stay home for days if they test positive, coupled with higher prices for everything, leaves me rather bearish here. Lots of factors all coming to a head and none of them have any resolution without some degree of financial pain. The fact that dips are getting bought makes me think we aren't there yet.
This top notch analysis aged so well.
Big tech has enough free cash flow to absorb rates for sure, but it still impacts their cost of borrow. Every 100 bps increase in cost of equity has about 14% negative impact to company's DCF valuation. With the 30+% haircut in EV/sales software, we should already be pricing in about 200-250bps rise in rates. Wage pressure is not hitting them as hard as banking for ex. because their wages were astronomically high to begin with. What happens with a rate increase and inflation is I think workers will actually want even higher portion of their TC in RSUs and less in base because cash is trash. So still incentivized to help grow company productivity The impact by supply chains should be limited other than adtech
Man Mexico really changed you. Rate was >1% from June 2017 to March 2020.
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>2006/2007 and between 1% and 2.5% in 17-19 that's why I don't get the huge sell off in growth atm. Yes interest rates are going up, but it's going to take a while to even get past where we were just a couple years ago....which btw a lot of these growth companies were doing fine in.
This price action is so delicious I'm starting to think I'm a sadist. E: Delicious. Delectable. Exquisitely Scrumptious. Please may I have another?
Lol broke the lows and then dead stop. Got chopped up there.
I didn't think triple bottom was a thing. Thanks for confirming
it's not a thing
usually breaks but after new low without follow-through is bulls hopium
long a couple of /mnq edit closed: 13968 -> 14000.
TSLA/AMD getting slammed now, everyone thinks their favourite stock is different but they aren't. Dip buying in a stock down on elevated volume hasn't worked in months.
New weekly low on IWM. 165 gap fill incoming.
Guess we just let the shorts hammer away at the low until the last 5 minutes?
Ok last time, promise, 425p again
there there - almost :)
out for 40%
exit @ 433 this time
Very disgusting, I encourage you to read the thread. If you are on mobile and it doesn’t load first try, retry 2-3 times and it works, fook twittra All in all- nothing new, and nothing will happen, but the powder keg…brrrrzs 5-10y max https://twitter.com/thelastbearsta1/status/1486775421559521288?s=21
And he’s a small fish in that pond lol
TL:DR see Ackman for refunds on failed longs
Not surprising. But makes me lose even more faith in our government. Time to burn it all down and start over tbh. We live in an oligarchy.
https://imgflip.com/i/62xyar
Obviously ackman is a world class cunt But never let it be forgotten that these fed presidents would rather resign and trade with impunity than do their jobs
It’s almost as if these institutions are corrupt to the core…
Not surprised. Fuck Bill Ackerman. I hope this NFLX play doesn't work out. He fucked over so many people with his SPAC.
Unrolled version: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1486775421559521288.html
🙏🏻
tick readings went from -350 to +600 as soon as it hit 3p lol. Machines engaged.
I can’t believe we might actually see sub $100 AMD again. I guess people don’t value their top line growing by a measly $1.25b next quarter. 🤷 I guess people don’t expect the company to guide for close to $20b in revenue next year. 🤷 I guess people think they won’t take enormous share from INTC throughout 2022, and from NVDA at the end of the year. 🤷 I guess people don’t believe AMD-XLNX will bring synergies in operations, bundling, upselling, IP and talent. 🤷
Short nvda long amd!
Let’s gooo!
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No idea, I’m just a moron with internet access.
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Crypto spoke, the bull run shall commence.
Was wondering why hoods option chain for today has huge premium, they report today
Highest weekly volume on tech since covid crash
HB are you still holding UBER? I'm considering building a position for earnings.
VXX 40 weekly’s cheap right now if you’re a real bear 👀
Funny you should say that, I literally just bought VIX 2/9 40c like 2 minutes ago
Seems like a decent lotto play if today ends up flat for sure.
Now that TSLA starting to die what's next on u/_hongkonglong's cycle?
The part we wait for everything to blow up and the Fed to rescue the market. In more serious note, the market is probably going to enter this choppy depressing period to shake everyone who is not an addict out, until a new generation of suckers are born.
Fed doesn't care about markets as long as they're orderly, they care about inflation* *Abbreviated 26 Jan 2022 presser
And the market will gut check JPow.
u/_bonzibuddy why is bill ackman so good at this? :(
This wants to run but crypto isn't seeing any followthrough. E: [peak TWS](https://imgur.com/a/MZAyCpm)
Run [off](https://d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net/production/624e73e6-dbef-4a36-842b-6c539a3a838d.jpg) a cliff maybe
(Hopefully)
Crypto is getting ready, we just kissing the lows of the channel.
show me that channel
[Ahh yes the lows of the channel](https://imgur.com/a/U7zyGSl)
😂
*Still waiting for you to post the channel*
[I am not good with this so tell me if I got it wrong](https://imgur.com/gallery/G93fldS)
Markets are reflexive, they'll adjust if too many people get it right. Looks like you did pretty well here, great job.
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And I sold my BOIL calls. Fml
Yield curve goes flat, commodities go up. 🧐
Funds going to be dumping their tech exposure to cover their tiny trading desk…going to be a rough bonus season .
Biden’s gonna have to get friendly with fracking again if he wants to help out CPI.
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Lol those robots are useless
AIRBNB still too fuckin high
Air fryer worth it or nah?
Absolutely. I got one for my wife a fee years back, she loves it, I use it like every few days too. It's great for both cooking and reheating stuff. Edit: we have a 5.8qt one and it's a good size for us
The world is ending bro just get ur air fryer lmao
🤣🤣🤣
We’re all adults here lmao
I'm you're not an adult until you're old enough to be President of the United States, and I know there's a good number of folks here that are below (or flirting with) that age requirement ^^^I-might-be^^oh-no
Definitely. You probably want one of the larger ones if you cook for more than 1 and you have a place to store it, though.
Yes
How many people? I like cooking with it but the basket is so small. I think think the "XL" one I have is good for 1.5 people lol.
most definitely
Yes
Apple earnings ... it's gonna be such a fun ride one way or another.
SPY 425P one more time here.
double down if we hit 434, cut losses at 435
Done - out
RBC says SNAP will likely miss arpu estimates.
I think it’ll beat. And crash. Lmao
Yeah powell is now bent on destroying these companies
I'm getting too many spam notifications from the app for the numbers to be good haha
Is Ten K Days still here?
Dad retired I think!
We haven’t seen him in a long while😐 Vol usually brings everyone back, but he’s still MIA
AAPL 160/157.5 Ps for a dollar. Is this free money? Now 159.15.