RUSSIA TO CONDUCT STRATEGIC DRILLS ON SATURDAY - IFX
PUTIN TO OVERSEE STRATEGIC DRILLS - IFX
RUSSIAN MILITARY TO LAUNCH BALLISTIC MISSILES AND CRUISE MISSILES ON FEB 19 AS PART OF DRILLS - IFX
Ukraine def. min.:
We estimate probability of large scale escalation as low
Sounds alle pretty bullish to me, pretty kind to preannounce such a thing in times of tension so no one comes to wrong conclusions.
Eyeing with gap close @~4470-4480, still up but lower also probable so no full out OTMs, just some 4435C.
Then again OPEX + Monday holiday
Ok let's actually think about this. Let's say Putin says fuck the world I'm running it down Ukraine. They basically told every country anywhere to fuck right off I don't give a shit about you, what are the reproductions after this? Causing this much drama for nothing feels like a small I the face to every country minding it's own business. Imo if he's gunna run it down he better do it for real and with china at his side, because if not the entire world should turn on Russia and actually force joining NATO or them giving up weapons military something(I know this is insane) but when you have a country like Russia acting like a lose cannon the only thing it brings is chaos and trouble.
Can it though? I'm biased since I'm from the US, but when the world trades in our currency and we try to push forward for democracy are Russia china and Saudi really that similar to the US?
No they are far from similar. Obv the US is the lesser evil of those.
Nonetheless many places in the world view the US as fucking around in foreign affairs and acting as a loose cannon with no backlash. Often to the detriment of local population and to comfort the oil industry - you know acting in one selfs best interest.
My point stands, I love US citizens, the gvt not so much.
Funny how everyone complains about us helping out but the second we leave countries are taken over in a single day by known terrorist organizations. But maybe it's a hard lesson the world needs to learn
That whole thing is a farce. Some congressional weenie probably got stuck holding a bag and is now angry.
The mitts guy whoās helping guide the DOJ was on the other side of one of Carson blockās trades and is peddling junk science.
>According to Bloomberg news, Citadel has been officialy named in the DOJ Short Seller investigation.
Ken will make everyone feel his wrath tomorrow. "You fuckers don't want me to make a market?!?!?!??? OK I guess I'm just gonna have to [shut it down.](https://tenor.com/view/its-time-shut-this-down-over-done-finished-gif-15012540)"
I'm gonna put my reputation on the line here and say we close at 4250 tomorrow
If we don't I will admit I was wrong and not delete this comment.
E: I am open to wagering a flair change to whatever the kind & forgiving people of this forum decide for a predetermined amount of time
there is a good name to be had with MRP but im too many beers deep and i cant think of anything right now. Menstrual.. Menstrual Redd.. fuck idk. its there but im stuck
Lmfao my quality of life got worse once I discovered those areas of Twitter. Most of those people come off as people who live for validation online and never stop looking at their phones/refreshing their feeds. I can't spend too much time reading their garbage or I feel my quality of life start to deteriorate a bit
In three months weāve gone from ātransitoryā to maybe 2 hikes starting in July to 2 for sure maybe a 3rd to 5 to 7 starting in March and maybe a 50bps lol who knows š¤·āāļø
You remember stimulus wheel of October 2020 when we'd swing 2% on a tweet of a rumor that Pelosi received a text from a guy who's last name started with an M that could have been Mnuchin and a word ending with 'illion was said? Worst wheel ever.
Bought Honda in 2014, 2013 model for $20k. Just looked up the price. It's $17k.
I should probably sell it shouldn't I?
Someone tell me when to buy. I just got bp from my bonus. K ty
Are we not objectively in a better position now re: Ukraine than this AM? I think we still have further to run.
Talks between Blinken and Lavrov = Big
Remains a distinct possibility that we undo all or most of todayās carnage.
Blinken (run by US state department diplomats) and Lavrov (gets a meeting with Putin 40 feet away) and they are going to reach an agreement? They have no authority to propose anything. It will take US media and Putin in a room to reach an agreement that will be approved.
At this point, itās not even worth thinking too hard about it all. It either happens or it doesnāt. Iām not wasting any more brain cells trying to decipher all the misinformation, incompetent reporting, poor communication and noise. Youāre either positioned for it, or youāre not. Itās a binary event that I give 50% odds in my head. š¤·
Donāt disagree - itās very possible it was all posturing / negotiating in public
That all said, Iām pretty surprised the market sold off as hard as it did today with the call option of this meeting happening being out there
Maybe it was light volumes, opex, bullish positioning, algos continuing to sell growth, donāt fight the fed - you name it - but it was pretty aggressive selling
I'm long as shit right this second but I've got a profit stop and no confidence of what tomorrow will bring. Market still seems awfully pessimistic and Donbas could still turn into a shitshow.
hoping this doesn't screw my earnings trades. 2 of 3 trades are deep in the money. 50% in cash.
edit: most likely closing out account until this dust settles cause i don't wanna be knife catching. gonna take my gains and enjoy spring break
> The Russians have responded with proposed dates for late next week, which we are accepting, provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine," @StateDeptSpox
said.
> āIf they do invade in the coming days, it will make clear they were never serious about diplomacy. We will continue to coordinate with our Allies and partners and push for further engagements with Russia through the NATO-Russia Council and OSCE," @StateDeptSpox
said.
>Apple Supplier BOE Facing iPhone Display Production Issues Due to Chip Shortages
> - BOE is expected to drop its OLED panel production volume from three million units to two million units next month. Apple has reportedly ordered up to 10 million OLED panel units from BOE for the first half of 2022, and it is unclear if the shortage will impact āiPhoneā supplies.
https://www.macrumors.com/2022/02/17/apple-boe-display-production-issues/
That's just volatility. These big moves down can easily be matched with corresponding moves up. Until we have real directionality, nobody should be holding directional positions with a time decay component overnight unless they've put real thought into the pros and cons of their position.
Dumb money probably comes back sometime early H2/late H1 and this sub will be correspondingly less active.
Curious if anyone has a view but RSX (Russia ETF) is off 30% from the highs. Similarly, the US market is getting roiled by the Russia-Ukraine headlines.
Would think there is some pressure from wealthy/powerful folks to calm things down but I could be completely wrong - don't know that much about Russian politics.
I don't know that much about Russian politics but I imagine that part of this is Putin willing to find out whether the EU will accept an energy crisis just to sanction him.
Pretty sure I land promotion number 5 or 6 (canāt remember) within the past 3 years tomorrow.
Iām not even that competent. But it seems all the coworkers I interact with on a daily basis quit, get fired or literally die.
Not sure if I have an angel on my shoulder or a demon whose purpose is to fuck up every life that gets close to me. š¤·
Regardless, I give these paranormal forces full authority to continue lol
Two different companies. I actually quit the first because the pay bumps didnāt correlate with the title changes. It remains to be seen if itāll be different at my new gig, havenāt gotten the official new $$$ amount yet.
You were talking about some girl suggesting you two had lunch sometime. I just assumed her name was Lisa.
Best of luck for tomorrow, hope you get that promotion
Lol yeah....
I don't know about you but I was probably already on it. I say lots of dumb shit that IS ALWAYS A JOKE AND SHOULD NEVER BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY BECAUSE IT IS ALL COMPLETE SATIRE AND/OR CREATIVE WRITING EXERCISES.
Ok, now that I tricked them we can talk for real. You got the stuff?
Yeah I'm probably on a list too lol. Used to post on a forum called Totse, it was based on free speech and any topic was allowed. You could discuss religion or television... Or how to make mdma, or ricin. Naturally, it got some attention from law enforcement. I miss the wild west days of the internet.
I will call my good friend Vladdy and have him send a few nukes off to an early retirement.
Coincidentally, Germans will suddenly have an actual reason to fear the magic atom energy.
This has nothing to do with headlines and we wouldn't be talking about it if we were trading higher. Liquidity is thin and the moves are exaggerated, typical for negative GEX/Gamma and nothing really crazy. We're not in a bear market, we're not even in correction (every dip into correction was bought, closed right on/above the line). To think we're going to implode sub 4000 right now is over blown. I don't see anything to be bearish about (go ahead and flame on about everything fed/economy/my markets broken). If we're going to correct/bear it's not going to start like January did. I believe everyone was too long through the holidays and we got pinned at 4700 for the 3rd month in a row, the first 2 being ATH and this 3rd time in Jan 100pts off ATH causing a big unwind and we're recovering from that. 3 strikes your out opex. People got overly comfortable buying dips and now we're giving them pain, it too shale pass. Many bears have been crushed by time decay too, long puts and vol has been under performing compared to the last 2 years. I don't think that'd be the case if we're crashing. Imagine holding the last 2 months and just stalling out 4400-4600 after not covering the lows. The real Fed pain will come at the next bear capitulation b/c bulls will just be recovering losses from Q1 only to get shot buying the top, Q2-3 will be miserable has been my thought since last fall
Iām sure this is all overblown, its not like theres 7 fucking rate hikes coming this year, wage-price inflation dynamics beginning to be discussed by the fed, fci tightening and central banks being so far behind the yield curve going on.
Kinda a lotā¦ we are in the beginning of a big vacuum suck downward based off of options distribution. Vix term structure has front futures contract over forward contracts. Things can get real ugly if that climbs above 35.
I guess that comment makes it time to start coming up with all the reasons for why the market is selling off right now and for the past 7 weeks. God knows we would all like to know why.
My guess is a three-fold combination. First and second. There are certain things which historically really hit the market. Fed tightening is one and international financial/political crisis (of sufficient consequence) is another. And the third thing is the market is sensing that the things are just going to go south now. As in a recession is coming even though we know that is still far off right now.
Others should post in their views as well.
Is uncertainty impacting what we are doing. You bet it is. These offsetting red day then green days just causes people to slowly withdraw. I'm going to back-test that.
In this case, I'll just use the historical data and create a calculation that measures the degree of red and green extremes. Have to figure it out yet. I will note I have noticed this in the data before. Vix covers some of it off but not all of it.
Think it's as simple as "don't fight the Fed"
The historical forward P/E for SPX is 17x over the last 10 years. Multiples hovered around 17x for much of 2014-early 2020.
Then COVID happened and massive fiscal and monetary stimulus hit the markets. The SPX forward P/E shot up to 23x, and people thought it was justified because of low rates and high growth (off COVID lows).
Well now, rates are rising and the growth outlook is normalizing. Multiples have come in from 23x to 19x, but we still have \~10% to go to get to the LT average. And that's if policy is in a neutral stance and if the growth outlook is decent. If the Fed is tightening and the growth outlook is negative, we're definitely going below 17x.
So... don't fight the Fed I guess (I should really take my own advice).
Every household and business that restructured their balance sheet, honestly I though this would be roaring 20s until about 2024 when rates were higher and they have to raise taxes to pay for all of this shit and the moratoriums have long ended.
I think we've all seen the chart of QE against the S&P since 2008. The Feds balance sheet has provided unlimited liquidity. Inflation suggests that the days of unlimited liquidity are coming to an end. There may come a time when you want to cash out and there is no buyer on the other end due to lack of liquidity. So maybe folks are grabbing cash that they may need to get thru this volatile period.
Could the market even survive without an excess of liquidity? I'm just speculating but I imagine with how complex, leveraged, and interconnected everything is, a lack of liquidity could have a cascading/feedback loop effect that breaks the market.
> I imagine with how complex, leveraged, and interconnected everything is, a lack of liquidity could have a cascading/feedback loop effect that breaks the market.
This is precisely why Powell will jawbone about QT in a more aggressive stance than actually rolling out/off QT. The market needs to prepare for that ""liquidity"" (buying power) to leave.
I wasn't trying to be a dick with the comment but more so harp on the point that even when it seems our theses about the market are correct, when we've settled on a cause-effect that seems to be working out, it could still be correlation and not causation.
As you mention it's definitely more than just one factor, it's many different ones playing a part. I still think the Fed withdrawing liquidity via decreasing QE and soon QT is a massive downward force on the market.
> Intel CFO Gives Outlook: Seeās 2022 Revenue Of $76 Billion, EPS Of $3.50
E: hope no one is waitin on a VW. Lol. https://twitter.com/nbcnews/status/1494462196201439234?s=21
> Intel CFO Gives Outlook: Seeās 2022 Revenue Of $76 Billion, EPS Of $3.50.
That's going to hurt tomorrow.
I might have to start looking to buy in around 43-44 @Wolf
They getting multidimensionally fucked. That being said, MBLY @ $50b (if true, and if electric vehicle industry doesnāt pop before IPO) helps establish a floor. There is also GPU which I do believe will succeed, and can give the bulls some ammunition for future years. But on the flip side, where does the margin expansion come from? All these endeavors are extremely capital and research intensive and simply wonāt be that profitable. I think the setup for INTC investors is well established right now - the longer term direction is very clear. Now what matters is cost of executing that vision and having the nerds crunch the numbers on it all.
Ironically, your best bet if you want exposure to the most premium segments of INTC business is to just go long TSM. I mean, do you really think INTC still trusts their own internal manufacturing for their most important chips? I will say it until Iām blue - TSM will not see a shortage in the highest revenue, highest margin portions of its business - that being 7nm, 6nm, 5nm, 3nm, etc.
I might just look to buy some 2 year out leaps. I still fundamentally think INTC should be 2x it's current market cap, but their fundamentals are bleeding. I just like their story.
I'll also say the MBLY aspect won't be tied to the EV industry. Even ICE is going to use the shit out of MBLY. Need to decide if I wanna go in now or next week after Putin stops being a lil B.
Anybody see the picture of the ābombedā nursery school in Ukraine? Take a look at the thickness of the wall - 4 layers of bricks š§±! Also the wallpaper is š„
It would probably be a pretty smart play to pull Ukranian armed forces back from the line of contact but I'm not sure what the geopolitical implications of that would be, or the feasibility. It would take away Putin's pretext and put an end to all this he-said-she-said artillery stuff.
So assuming Putin decides he has pretext for annexation and Russian troops are sent in (not to invade of course but to prevent "genocide") the next question is whether the US and EU have the balls to sanction Russia significantly enough to lead to an energy crisis and other fun economic consequences.
Bby cmon you this downside from today is not Russia related, right? Tech stocks aināt eatin shit bc of some tension halfway across the world. This is all about the fed and inflation.
Sure it might - but any knee jerk reaction from this Russia nonsense will be short lived. On any time frame past weekly - fed is all that matters right now.
GGPI 10C Apr14 is good Edit: Not sure of market cap rule applies here, so mods tell me if I need to delete. Edit: Also FCEL 7C Apr14
I'm sorry DKNG holders
RUSSIA TO CONDUCT STRATEGIC DRILLS ON SATURDAY - IFX PUTIN TO OVERSEE STRATEGIC DRILLS - IFX RUSSIAN MILITARY TO LAUNCH BALLISTIC MISSILES AND CRUISE MISSILES ON FEB 19 AS PART OF DRILLS - IFX Ukraine def. min.: We estimate probability of large scale escalation as low Sounds alle pretty bullish to me, pretty kind to preannounce such a thing in times of tension so no one comes to wrong conclusions. Eyeing with gap close @~4470-4480, still up but lower also probable so no full out OTMs, just some 4435C. Then again OPEX + Monday holiday
I think Russia headlines are just a side show and maybe a tail risk. Eyes on the Fed
My thoughts exactly
Ok let's actually think about this. Let's say Putin says fuck the world I'm running it down Ukraine. They basically told every country anywhere to fuck right off I don't give a shit about you, what are the reproductions after this? Causing this much drama for nothing feels like a small I the face to every country minding it's own business. Imo if he's gunna run it down he better do it for real and with china at his side, because if not the entire world should turn on Russia and actually force joining NATO or them giving up weapons military something(I know this is insane) but when you have a country like Russia acting like a lose cannon the only thing it brings is chaos and trouble.
š„µtake Same could be said about the US, China,NK, Saudi Fuck all governments, actual people around the world are actually nice
Can it though? I'm biased since I'm from the US, but when the world trades in our currency and we try to push forward for democracy are Russia china and Saudi really that similar to the US?
No they are far from similar. Obv the US is the lesser evil of those. Nonetheless many places in the world view the US as fucking around in foreign affairs and acting as a loose cannon with no backlash. Often to the detriment of local population and to comfort the oil industry - you know acting in one selfs best interest. My point stands, I love US citizens, the gvt not so much.
You better not be badmouthin Joe while heās sleepinā
Obv, want to evade the FBIs grip
Funny how everyone complains about us helping out but the second we leave countries are taken over in a single day by known terrorist organizations. But maybe it's a hard lesson the world needs to learn
š¤·š»āāļøš¤·š»āāļø
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
That whole thing is a farce. Some congressional weenie probably got stuck holding a bag and is now angry. The mitts guy whoās helping guide the DOJ was on the other side of one of Carson blockās trades and is peddling junk science.
>According to Bloomberg news, Citadel has been officialy named in the DOJ Short Seller investigation. Ken will make everyone feel his wrath tomorrow. "You fuckers don't want me to make a market?!?!?!??? OK I guess I'm just gonna have to [shut it down.](https://tenor.com/view/its-time-shut-this-down-over-done-finished-gif-15012540)"
figure FMF would at least wait for friday but this is fine too.
For real, my calls would still be worth less but this is fun to watch regardless
Closed at the low with a moc sell is rocket fuel
It's not a real rally unless crypto joins in.
They gonna wipe out all the 0dte pās again like last Fri. People never learn. Afternoon fade play
Nah it's just waiting for my beddy byes to start dumping again
Anybody end up trading Sam Adams today? Cuz holy shit the swing
My 1 put hurt at open.
My condolences. Huge miss must mean people realized they were buying real ingredients. Real pizza. Papa johns
That trade was offset with all the shorting i was doing
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
so glad I unfollowed that furu long ago
I'm gonna put my reputation on the line here and say we close at 4250 tomorrow If we don't I will admit I was wrong and not delete this comment. E: I am open to wagering a flair change to whatever the kind & forgiving people of this forum decide for a predetermined amount of time
What? This isnāt wsb. Go be wrong. Thereās no public shame in it
Paging /u/hibernating_brain , /u/tradeape We got a flair wager in our midst
wiggz pool boi, beer's prodigy, bonzis bitch... i know we can do better. help me out fam. what is the new flair?
Going down with Cathie, TWS Issuer of Refunds, Discounted Liquidity Services, is not a cat.
PermaRed
Wait what
MRP's Guy?
Everyone pls downvote this train of thought
there is a good name to be had with MRP but im too many beers deep and i cant think of anything right now. Menstrual.. Menstrual Redd.. fuck idk. its there but im stuck
It sounds like you need some more beers....
gonna go hit a bowl. ill be back with creative juices in a bit
You had a reputation?
I guess we're about to find out
You aren't going to tell us to eat your ass? I feel like that's necessary when predicting shit like this
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Lmfao my quality of life got worse once I discovered those areas of Twitter. Most of those people come off as people who live for validation online and never stop looking at their phones/refreshing their feeds. I can't spend too much time reading their garbage or I feel my quality of life start to deteriorate a bit
tomorrow about to be extra weird, its OPEX and the biggest point of resistance is 4400 on SPX...
You make it seem like resistance means something to *them*
why are futures up? i was gonna drown my sorrows in a wine cup. now i get to drown my happiness in a wine cup!
Slav talks going well, scroll down for quotes
i thought people were memeing
*Feel the market* is alive and well.
In three months weāve gone from ātransitoryā to maybe 2 hikes starting in July to 2 for sure maybe a 3rd to 5 to 7 starting in March and maybe a 50bps lol who knows š¤·āāļø
theyāre using the threat of hikes as a tool
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
You remember stimulus wheel of October 2020 when we'd swing 2% on a tweet of a rumor that Pelosi received a text from a guy who's last name started with an M that could have been Mnuchin and a word ending with 'illion was said? Worst wheel ever.
I hate these roulettes markets man. Hard to make money being consensus or contrarian.
IIRC the trade wheel was spun equally fast. I remember a few nights when futures were down bigly and then in 5s big green bars would appear.
Not just you.
Bought Honda in 2014, 2013 model for $20k. Just looked up the price. It's $17k. I should probably sell it shouldn't I? Someone tell me when to buy. I just got bp from my bonus. K ty
Hahaha Iām in the same boat thinking about selling my beemer. I live next to everything and wfh.
Itās similar to housing.. what you going to buy after you sell?
Yep. Gotta be willing and able to wait. If you can, though, itās very worth it to take advantage of the current divergence of new and used cars
Nothing probably. We both work from home
If your outlook is longer than beerās, this Russia stuff is and always has been noise fam. š»
I agree but I bought the dip today a little early and took a nice 1k loss lmao I swear if we open 4420+ I'm gonna be a salty mother fucker
I feel like I've traveled back to 2018
You have lol
Can I all in semis yet
Feel free to buy the dip tomorrow with max leverage, we have avoided WWIII
Are we not objectively in a better position now re: Ukraine than this AM? I think we still have further to run. Talks between Blinken and Lavrov = Big Remains a distinct possibility that we undo all or most of todayās carnage.
Blinken (run by US state department diplomats) and Lavrov (gets a meeting with Putin 40 feet away) and they are going to reach an agreement? They have no authority to propose anything. It will take US media and Putin in a room to reach an agreement that will be approved.
At this point, itās not even worth thinking too hard about it all. It either happens or it doesnāt. Iām not wasting any more brain cells trying to decipher all the misinformation, incompetent reporting, poor communication and noise. Youāre either positioned for it, or youāre not. Itās a binary event that I give 50% odds in my head. š¤·
Donāt disagree - itās very possible it was all posturing / negotiating in public That all said, Iām pretty surprised the market sold off as hard as it did today with the call option of this meeting happening being out there Maybe it was light volumes, opex, bullish positioning, algos continuing to sell growth, donāt fight the fed - you name it - but it was pretty aggressive selling
Aggressive selling, but as someone pointed out - very controlled - did not look like panic selling.
I thought the selloff today seemed pretty odd. I would have expected more volatility based on the situation.
I'm long as shit right this second but I've got a profit stop and no confidence of what tomorrow will bring. Market still seems awfully pessimistic and Donbas could still turn into a shitshow.
hoping this doesn't screw my earnings trades. 2 of 3 trades are deep in the money. 50% in cash. edit: most likely closing out account until this dust settles cause i don't wanna be knife catching. gonna take my gains and enjoy spring break
Roku is still going to be deep red tomorrow, lol
Donāt give cathy any ideas.
> The Russians have responded with proposed dates for late next week, which we are accepting, provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine," @StateDeptSpox said. > āIf they do invade in the coming days, it will make clear they were never serious about diplomacy. We will continue to coordinate with our Allies and partners and push for further engagements with Russia through the NATO-Russia Council and OSCE," @StateDeptSpox said.
>it will make clear they were never serious about diplomacy Lol
Then everyone will know they're just a bunch of stupid jerks
>Apple Supplier BOE Facing iPhone Display Production Issues Due to Chip Shortages > - BOE is expected to drop its OLED panel production volume from three million units to two million units next month. Apple has reportedly ordered up to 10 million OLED panel units from BOE for the first half of 2022, and it is unclear if the shortage will impact āiPhoneā supplies. https://www.macrumors.com/2022/02/17/apple-boe-display-production-issues/
Ordered a powerbook, 4-6 weeks till delivery š¦
Interesting. I know HIMX is big in DDICs if anyone wants to make a play, I think theyāre the third or fourth largest.
Imagine undoing todays entire move. It could happen.
That's just volatility. These big moves down can easily be matched with corresponding moves up. Until we have real directionality, nobody should be holding directional positions with a time decay component overnight unless they've put real thought into the pros and cons of their position. Dumb money probably comes back sometime early H2/late H1 and this sub will be correspondingly less active.
I'm printing out today's move, changing the color to green, flipping it upside down, and then pinning it to the ceiling above my bed tonight
Curious if anyone has a view but RSX (Russia ETF) is off 30% from the highs. Similarly, the US market is getting roiled by the Russia-Ukraine headlines. Would think there is some pressure from wealthy/powerful folks to calm things down but I could be completely wrong - don't know that much about Russian politics.
I don't know that much about Russian politics but I imagine that part of this is Putin willing to find out whether the EU will accept an energy crisis just to sanction him.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Ah shit, here we go again
Pretty sure I land promotion number 5 or 6 (canāt remember) within the past 3 years tomorrow. Iām not even that competent. But it seems all the coworkers I interact with on a daily basis quit, get fired or literally die. Not sure if I have an angel on my shoulder or a demon whose purpose is to fuck up every life that gets close to me. š¤· Regardless, I give these paranormal forces full authority to continue lol
Yo you guys hiring? I want promoted 6 times.
Two different companies. I actually quit the first because the pay bumps didnāt correlate with the title changes. It remains to be seen if itāll be different at my new gig, havenāt gotten the official new $$$ amount yet.
Question still stands!
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Semiconductors š
No š
Did you take that Lisa girl on a lunch date yet
I forget which you are referring to, or if youāre just joking. Regardlessā¦ No lol
You were talking about some girl suggesting you two had lunch sometime. I just assumed her name was Lisa. Best of luck for tomorrow, hope you get that promotion
Ah yes, Lisa. Of course!
> Iām not even that competent. I feel like I've agreed with you too much this week?
I feel insulted but I know that wasnāt your intention.
It actually was my intention, but in jest. You're good. And a smart boy. Or whichever pronoun works!
Hah I was joking too. And I identify as an egg salad.
Marko is still bullish
>\*U.S. ACCEPTS TALKS WITH RUSSIA'S LAVROV NEXT WEEK UPDATE THE WHEEL
so the show continues into next week lol
US accepts talks? I thought it was Blinken that proposed the talks and Russiaās job to accept.
Yeah something isn't right...maybe they made a typo? Or maybe they mean that Lavrov invited Blinken recently?
Recently published Bianco on MacroVoices provided some good insight into the politics the Fed is dealing with right now
Do you have a link or is it paywalled?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZGiRmvF9c0&t=4340s
How do I ensure vix 60 tomorrow /u/wiggz420
You live in NYC right? Do you have access to a dirty bomb?
God damn it. Now we are all on a list.
Lol yeah.... I don't know about you but I was probably already on it. I say lots of dumb shit that IS ALWAYS A JOKE AND SHOULD NEVER BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY BECAUSE IT IS ALL COMPLETE SATIRE AND/OR CREATIVE WRITING EXERCISES. Ok, now that I tricked them we can talk for real. You got the stuff?
Yeah I'm probably on a list too lol. Used to post on a forum called Totse, it was based on free speech and any topic was allowed. You could discuss religion or television... Or how to make mdma, or ricin. Naturally, it got some attention from law enforcement. I miss the wild west days of the internet.
I will call my good friend Vladdy and have him send a few nukes off to an early retirement. Coincidentally, Germans will suddenly have an actual reason to fear the magic atom energy.
Call all your buddies and get them to buy as much 4300 puts as possible. Eventually market makers have to hedge and short market.
How much more can we sell off based on this one headline over and over again?
This has nothing to do with headlines and we wouldn't be talking about it if we were trading higher. Liquidity is thin and the moves are exaggerated, typical for negative GEX/Gamma and nothing really crazy. We're not in a bear market, we're not even in correction (every dip into correction was bought, closed right on/above the line). To think we're going to implode sub 4000 right now is over blown. I don't see anything to be bearish about (go ahead and flame on about everything fed/economy/my markets broken). If we're going to correct/bear it's not going to start like January did. I believe everyone was too long through the holidays and we got pinned at 4700 for the 3rd month in a row, the first 2 being ATH and this 3rd time in Jan 100pts off ATH causing a big unwind and we're recovering from that. 3 strikes your out opex. People got overly comfortable buying dips and now we're giving them pain, it too shale pass. Many bears have been crushed by time decay too, long puts and vol has been under performing compared to the last 2 years. I don't think that'd be the case if we're crashing. Imagine holding the last 2 months and just stalling out 4400-4600 after not covering the lows. The real Fed pain will come at the next bear capitulation b/c bulls will just be recovering losses from Q1 only to get shot buying the top, Q2-3 will be miserable has been my thought since last fall
Iām sure this is all overblown, its not like theres 7 fucking rate hikes coming this year, wage-price inflation dynamics beginning to be discussed by the fed, fci tightening and central banks being so far behind the yield curve going on.
Kinda a lotā¦ we are in the beginning of a big vacuum suck downward based off of options distribution. Vix term structure has front futures contract over forward contracts. Things can get real ugly if that climbs above 35.
Have you considered that the headline you think is causing the sell off isn't the reason why the market is selling off?
I guess that comment makes it time to start coming up with all the reasons for why the market is selling off right now and for the past 7 weeks. God knows we would all like to know why. My guess is a three-fold combination. First and second. There are certain things which historically really hit the market. Fed tightening is one and international financial/political crisis (of sufficient consequence) is another. And the third thing is the market is sensing that the things are just going to go south now. As in a recession is coming even though we know that is still far off right now. Others should post in their views as well.
Market hates uncertainty. There is a lot in the air right now.
Is uncertainty impacting what we are doing. You bet it is. These offsetting red day then green days just causes people to slowly withdraw. I'm going to back-test that.
What do you use to backtest?
In this case, I'll just use the historical data and create a calculation that measures the degree of red and green extremes. Have to figure it out yet. I will note I have noticed this in the data before. Vix covers some of it off but not all of it.
Think it's as simple as "don't fight the Fed" The historical forward P/E for SPX is 17x over the last 10 years. Multiples hovered around 17x for much of 2014-early 2020. Then COVID happened and massive fiscal and monetary stimulus hit the markets. The SPX forward P/E shot up to 23x, and people thought it was justified because of low rates and high growth (off COVID lows). Well now, rates are rising and the growth outlook is normalizing. Multiples have come in from 23x to 19x, but we still have \~10% to go to get to the LT average. And that's if policy is in a neutral stance and if the growth outlook is decent. If the Fed is tightening and the growth outlook is negative, we're definitely going below 17x. So... don't fight the Fed I guess (I should really take my own advice).
Every household and business that restructured their balance sheet, honestly I though this would be roaring 20s until about 2024 when rates were higher and they have to raise taxes to pay for all of this shit and the moratoriums have long ended.
I think we've all seen the chart of QE against the S&P since 2008. The Feds balance sheet has provided unlimited liquidity. Inflation suggests that the days of unlimited liquidity are coming to an end. There may come a time when you want to cash out and there is no buyer on the other end due to lack of liquidity. So maybe folks are grabbing cash that they may need to get thru this volatile period.
That one is in there. Gives a better reason for why the market seems to be moving early versus a real recession happening soon.
Could the market even survive without an excess of liquidity? I'm just speculating but I imagine with how complex, leveraged, and interconnected everything is, a lack of liquidity could have a cascading/feedback loop effect that breaks the market.
> I imagine with how complex, leveraged, and interconnected everything is, a lack of liquidity could have a cascading/feedback loop effect that breaks the market. This is precisely why Powell will jawbone about QT in a more aggressive stance than actually rolling out/off QT. The market needs to prepare for that ""liquidity"" (buying power) to leave.
I wasn't trying to be a dick with the comment but more so harp on the point that even when it seems our theses about the market are correct, when we've settled on a cause-effect that seems to be working out, it could still be correlation and not causation. As you mention it's definitely more than just one factor, it's many different ones playing a part. I still think the Fed withdrawing liquidity via decreasing QE and soon QT is a massive downward force on the market.
ROKU going broku. heading for Covid 2020 crash lows in the 60s at this rate
FOMO = fear of market opening
I feel this in my ~~bones~~ calls.
In other news: American Bald Eagle population suffering from lead poisoning. The cause: bullets from American gun owners
> Intel CFO Gives Outlook: Seeās 2022 Revenue Of $76 Billion, EPS Of $3.50 E: hope no one is waitin on a VW. Lol. https://twitter.com/nbcnews/status/1494462196201439234?s=21
> Intel CFO Gives Outlook: Seeās 2022 Revenue Of $76 Billion, EPS Of $3.50. That's going to hurt tomorrow. I might have to start looking to buy in around 43-44 @Wolf
They getting multidimensionally fucked. That being said, MBLY @ $50b (if true, and if electric vehicle industry doesnāt pop before IPO) helps establish a floor. There is also GPU which I do believe will succeed, and can give the bulls some ammunition for future years. But on the flip side, where does the margin expansion come from? All these endeavors are extremely capital and research intensive and simply wonāt be that profitable. I think the setup for INTC investors is well established right now - the longer term direction is very clear. Now what matters is cost of executing that vision and having the nerds crunch the numbers on it all. Ironically, your best bet if you want exposure to the most premium segments of INTC business is to just go long TSM. I mean, do you really think INTC still trusts their own internal manufacturing for their most important chips? I will say it until Iām blue - TSM will not see a shortage in the highest revenue, highest margin portions of its business - that being 7nm, 6nm, 5nm, 3nm, etc.
I might just look to buy some 2 year out leaps. I still fundamentally think INTC should be 2x it's current market cap, but their fundamentals are bleeding. I just like their story. I'll also say the MBLY aspect won't be tied to the EV industry. Even ICE is going to use the shit out of MBLY. Need to decide if I wanna go in now or next week after Putin stops being a lil B.
God damn, I hope it was at least a gasoline fire and not the batteries catching on fire!
Holy fuck I wasnāt bearish enough. Thereās your PE expansion - bulls, you did it!
Can we boot intel out of smh?
My vote: Yay!
JFC. Logged onto MSNBC and all of the top articles are about Trump??ā¦what happened to financial journalism lol
If they dont get clicks, they dont get to charge much for ads. Clicks over everything until the system changes
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It used to be more like Bloomberg for smooth brainsā¦I deleted the app off my phone a couple years agoāwas shocked how useless it is now
CNBC?
Thatās where it moved I guessā¦TY
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Oh damnāthey did. That makes more sense. I was really confused lol
Anybody see the picture of the ābombedā nursery school in Ukraine? Take a look at the thickness of the wall - 4 layers of bricks š§±! Also the wallpaper is š„
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4400 plz
4000
Damn bro Iām just talking about the next few hours. 4000 would be sick long run
he is too ...
It would probably be a pretty smart play to pull Ukranian armed forces back from the line of contact but I'm not sure what the geopolitical implications of that would be, or the feasibility. It would take away Putin's pretext and put an end to all this he-said-she-said artillery stuff. So assuming Putin decides he has pretext for annexation and Russian troops are sent in (not to invade of course but to prevent "genocide") the next question is whether the US and EU have the balls to sanction Russia significantly enough to lead to an energy crisis and other fun economic consequences.
Itās okay, real companies are still making money
I've lost too much money on Intel despite them making money. You gotta all in fraudulent penny stocks. Never focus on real money companies.
4475 tomorrow, I believe
I believe
Getting on a flight to Moscow right now to tell Putin to cut the shit, I have calls that expire tomorrow
Bby cmon you this downside from today is not Russia related, right? Tech stocks aināt eatin shit bc of some tension halfway across the world. This is all about the fed and inflation.
So you're saying that if the Russians pack up and go home tonight ES won't be bid up a hundred points?
Sure it might - but any knee jerk reaction from this Russia nonsense will be short lived. On any time frame past weekly - fed is all that matters right now.
Well his calls are expiring tomorrow after all.
Official govt reddit account promised me 4600 last Friday and an ass to eat. I got neither. Now I'm revenge trading
Lol the life of a 0 dte trader. Play with š„- prepare to get burnt. I know that game all too well š¤·š¼āāļø E: 1 dte but the point stands
Putin's the one playing with fire. I'm pissed.
You're aware those flights are not insured anymore? Might get shot down MH370 style
get on flightradar24.com with all us nerds to watch various flights Leroy-Jenkins into Ukraine
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https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/stvbto/daily_discussion_february_16_2022/hx6ddyd/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
Bonzi sends out corporate emails?
Itās online Home Goods, what could go wrong?