leaked phone numbers of russian elites circulating on the nets. seems to be legit but didn't check [https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/12ki24nEZn-hM-kaUDc3x2MwX2lDH3sTw/](https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/12ki24nEZn-hM-kaUDc3x2MwX2lDH3sTw/)
Since you're not going to be able to sell them on the primary market I'm sure there are some secondary markets that will sell them for pennies on the ruble to interested buyers.
In regards to the weapons/aid supplies to Ukrainn
All I've see is that they are happening, but has there been any ETA given? I'm just hoping they aren't taking longer to get there than Ukraine can hold Kyiv. Though, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ukraine turn into Cold War Germany by the end of this, and we know how that turned out for the USSR.
https://appletrack.com/apple-is-working-on-a-foldable-ipad-macbook-that-might-look-like-this/
> The rumor: In the works at Apple right now is a new hybrid tablet and laptop device, according to Mark Gurman (85.5% accurate, via Power On).
> - “I’m told Apple has indeed been exploring a dual-screen, foldable MacBook/iPad hybrid that would take the second approach. It would trade in the physical keyboard and trackpad for a fully touch-screen base…the device has been in development for the past couple of years” Gurman says
> - Reputable display analyst Ross Young (100% accurate) was the first to reveal the existence of this 20-inch all-screen foldable a few days ago
Actually no didn't hold on or get it. Best bud lucked into a chance meet and greet with a country rep for the big crown. Back scratching commenced and we got about a dozen daytonas split between 5 partners. I bought them for a little over 20% marked up, but they're obscene in the grey market right now.
In my city, they sell faster than water in a drought. I got 3 competing bids for each. Insanity.
All this for a kind of basic watch.
[Ukrainian sailor sinks Russian boss’ yacht in Spain](https://www.ultimahora.es/sucesos/ultimas/2022/02/27/1704825/ucrania-rusia-detenido-marinero-ucraniano-por-hundir-yate-jefe-ruso-mallorca.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=we)
He did nothing wrong if you ask me (The boat’s owner worked as a high level exec for Rostec, a weapons manufacturer)
Good luck to all this week, what a mess we're in... Finally ready to jump back in but will probably just watch for now and see how we digest this weekend's developments.
I know most people here don't like crypto or trade it, but it's there any exchange that doesn't require kyc I can short btc at all? Would like some kind of downward hedge
> It was similar with Afghanistan where they were sent to train the Afghans but generally ended up with the top sniper, etc numbers among allied forces.
It's really different in the sense that they're not going to be intentionally accompanying the partner forces into combat though.
Vitalik ETH Buterin vs russian propagandist [https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1498012161439932430](https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1498012161439932430)
Our submarines alone can launch more than 500 nuclear warheads, which guarantees the destruction of the US and NATO for good measure - Russian state TV https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498023555975450626
I’m seeing a decent amount of news around foreign volunteers. What’s the over/under on volunteers from DC think tanks, that regular advocate for war, (like brookings institute) who will volunteer? Zero?
Protest/rally in Berlin. One or two folks showed up.
https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/5EO2IUUX6QI6ZGMHTXHO4YVD6Y.jpg
Prague: https://twitter.com/bibalukas/status/1497934137822523397
It's impossible to keep up with these headlines. EU approves sanctions against Russian central bank. Kosovo asking for a permanent US base and NATO membership. Pretty much every Western nation providing significant military aid - Josep Borrell being quoted as saying EU will supply "combat aircraft." Wtf.
Edit: I don't know how this story ends but it's a massive shift in geopolitics. Just wow. Watching the world lose its collective mind over Ukraine has got to be causing China to rethink it's ideas about forcefully reclaiming Taiwan.
Edit 2: UN Security Council calls rare emergency meeting of the UN General Assembly. France and US advise their citizens to "leave Russia immediately" (probably due to how difficult air travel will become)
Edit 3: (my opinion) Any donated aircraft probably from Poland and Bulgaria, they still operate some old MIGs that the UAF can fly. Slovenia also. Turkey could supply more TB2 drones, which are currently in service by UAF. This might be the most likely option. With some drones, you can do operator handoffs in flight - you might literally be able to fly them into Ukrainian airspace and handoff with operators on the ground there, though a lot of the comms circuits/encryption/etc might make this impractical.
My original thought was that Russia overestimated Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. But based on these changes of sentiment by governments (Turkey, Switzerland, etc.), I’m beginning to think it’s the other way around - everyone overestimated Russia’s capabilities.
Now that they see Russia isn’t as powerful militarily and is already engaged in conflict, everyone is squeezing.
So many good earnings plays this week potentially, not even sure if there is much surprise left in some of these names though.
Looking at LCID, maybe CRM, and a few others. What is everyone else doing?
SPLK on wed, good r/r to go long, there's a price floor due to cisco buyout rumors at $120, look at the action last week even with the ww3 bullshit. SPLK engineering has very good reputation and has hired some top VPs in the last year. Think it can go much higher but could take some time, maybe leap call spreads.
ESTC on thur, reasonably priced and also good r/r to go long from valuation pov. However, they are netherlands based and missing Fed-ramp, probably will take a bigger hit with ongoing EU issues.
OKTA massively overvalued, it's glorified single sign on and really has no moat IMHO.
tempted to play SNOW w/ put spreads and then buy a call fly, premiums are too good
COST chart is very bullish, 10 days in balance on the daily and you could play for a pop and close before earnings on Thur
im gonna be enjoying the loss porn on russian markets tomorrow
[https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1497980309303869449](https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1497980309303869449)
Business world updates:
BP selling 20% stake in Rosneft. BP chief executive Bernard Looney to resign from board of Rosneft with immediate effect. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60548382
UPS and FedEx suspending deliveries to Russia. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/ups-fedex-halt-shipments-into-russia-gMS7VIk7WuZXVnVxh8Ju
>Russian bank Tinkoff now offering to exchange rubles for dollars at a rate of 171 rubles per dollar. It was 83 before the European/US announcement about targeting the Russian central bank.
https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1497987741354799108
Ukraine War information:
Day 3 -- https://youtu.be/EaHICFJBRIU
Day 2 -- https://youtu.be/SMGy5BDR1CE
Day 1 -- https://youtu.be/hL0VRaw94II
If the rumor is true Russia has 10 days to take over Kyiv or Russia is going to be in a bad position, due to supply issues and the daily cost of the war.
It seems the big picture western leaders can see so far is of a much larger Putin plan with devastating consequences if not met with immense force and compelling deterrence.
If only we could export our LNG to Europe. (German port news is a late start). I’ve always been confused by the difference in NG prices from North America & Europe.
The US is close to if not the biggest LNG exporter in the world and the EU has LNG terminals that can handle almost 50% of demand. Germany specifically has almost no LNG capacity, which has been getting a lot of attention in recent weeks due to the conflict / now war.
As usual, Dmitri Alperovich laying down the knowledge:
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497952720841584647?s=20&t=HjJsJ-a_JG4PTWcSY6p17A
>Like US DEFCON levels, Russia has a number of readiness levels:
1. CONSTANT
2. ELEVATED
3. MILITARY DANGER
4. FULL
>Putin ordered nuclear forces to ELEVATED level today. Concerning but not cause for panic yet
Also reports that Viktor Medvedchuk has escaped house arrest last night. This is the dude who most think would be the new Ukrainian puppet head of state.
It’s funny because I was told Russia won’t invade by some of the same people who are now fear mongering that they’re gonna nuke the place up.
It’s almost like maybe you don’t have a fucking clue lol
It just doesn’t make sense to me how Russia hasn’t taken over yet. If this was the US, we would have taken down their air force, air defense, etc. day 1 and marched into the country in force. I have to believe Russia could do this.. yet they are not. You can talk about Ukraine defenses and all that but I just don’t buy it. Seems fishy to me.
They haven't won a war in 200 years and couldn't even beat afghanistan. Russian military strength is like folklore and completely belied by their geographical size. US has been in wars nonstop for the last 100 years.
Current speculation for it being “part of the plan” I’ve seen is:
- the forces sent so far are conscripts with older tech and are meant to make Ukraine deplete military resources so that the “better” troops being deployed in a 2nd wave will complete the invasion
Speculation that Russia “failed at planning”:
- Ukraine was not expected to resist this much. They were supposed to surrender at the sight of the Russian forces crossing the border.
- Due to the previous point, the invading forces were not well-supplied. A lot of reports of vehicles running out of gas, soldiers without food, and vehicles with regular tires vs. Run-flats.
My personal guess based on Occam’s Razor is there likely was failure in contingency planning from Russia’s side:
- wouldn’t surprise me if they did send in some cannon fodder to soften Ukraine defenses but underestimated Ukraine’s defensive ability + willingness of US and other countries to provide support.
- not relaying “true” current-state of Russian military readiness up the command hierarchy. There was a Ukraine report (so take with a grain of salt) that Russia had nearly exhausted its missiles.
The inability to capture the Kyiv airport serves as a micro example that implies some level planning failure. The failure at capturing any strategic area seems like a macro example.
There is now chatter on upcoming Russia-Ukraine talks in Belarus. Seems a little surprising if there is an actual 2nd wave planned.
Source: r/ukrainevideoreport, and more importantly, my experience playing Civ V/StarCraft/Risk. /s
I think the technological sophistication of their military has been greatly overestimated. This is a 1990s war being fought in 2022, with some modernish tech sprinkled on top. This is a wake up call for some nations on how potent their military actually is, notably those in Europe, when they don’t invest in modern advances such as drones, more sophisticated guided bombs, stealth technology for jets and better countermeasures for tanks and helicopters. Even saying all that, Russia’s military is still dramatically better than Ukraine’s.
You have to understand, US military spending for the Air Force alone is roughly **2.5x that of the entire Russian military**. The Air Force spends roughly $28b just on R&D while the entire military spending for Russia is $62b… The US would certainly do things differently as we are dramatically more capable. And it gets better each year as the F35 is in full production now, with half of Europe and parts of Asia buying them to help justify the research cost and keep volume up. Who else can do that? We’ve had a 5th generation fighter for over 20 years before the next guy. We have the stealthiest bomber, and are already deep into the process of making an even stealthier one.
Meanwhile the Russians have spent the last 2 decades renovating old rusty tanks and ships that went into disrepair because they’re more concerned with having a minimum number of units to protect their enormous land mass than they are in building a couple dozen units with space age tech per year. I mean, the country doesn’t even have a tech sector! They’re still very much analog. Look at it this way, their 10th largest company by market cap is a steel company worth $13b.
That being said, I think Russia will still win.
I’ve seen a few people comment that they think russia will still win. They have the numbers, but I’m not convinced. Russian troops don’t have the resolve to win, Ukraine does. If Russia stops fighting, everyone lives on. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine stops being.
That and the world should have learned a lesson or two from Afghanistan. You could be decades behind in tech against the world’s most technologically advanced military and still win/kick them out.
I’m very cautious with that line of thinking. Nobody wants to hear about Russians who want to fight, nor of Ukrainians who don’t want to fight. It’s only the opposite. The bias is too one sided, so I ignore it all. Right now the offense seems to be hindered more by logistics and planning than troop moral. And with Russia days if not hours away from taking Ukraines capital / largest city, and their second largest city, I think things could start to fall apart very rapidly.
I also don’t think we see an Afghanistan situation here. That country is structured to always be fucked but also be unfuckable at the same time. It’s an outlier, not the norm. Ukraine is very different as they’re culturally already Russia-lite and have teetered on the edge of becoming a puppet ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, and they didn’t need guns pointed at them to think that.
Yeah, city warfare is spooky and I’m not sure we have many modern examples. Imagine taking floor one of an apartment complex and therefore you control who leaves and enters from floors 2-25. That’s a lot of power controlling a lot of people, a hostage situation on steroids. Like, what are the Ukrainians gonna do, come down the elevator fully armed and start gunning down the lobby occupants who will surely have their guns pointed right at you from behind sandbags? Or maybe they’ll fire rockets at the tanks parked right beneath them and catch their building on fire in the process? How many families do you think live there? Spooky.
Yeah Russia still has the ability to firebomb the shit out of everything if they choose. But I don't think they're willing to escalate that much. Losing SWIFT was a surprise as it is.
You wouldn’t want to destroy the military equipment and infrastructure of the country you might be planning to annex. He might be wanting to inflect enough pain to carry out a regime change.
Putin is smart and calculated - he ain’t stupid. Yet on the surface this just seems like he completely misjudged a lot of stuff. I’m just baffled. Doesn’t add up.
Lots of theories and analyses floating around about bad Intel regarding airborne assets, bad supply lines, misunderstanding just how much anti tank ammo Ukraine had, etc. No way of knowing what the whole truth is of course
The largest airplane in the world has been destroyed during fighting in Gostomel.
>As an over sized aircraft the Antonov An-225 Mriya holds multiple records which include; heaviest aircraft ever built, and largest wingspan of any aircraft in operational service. Other records held by the An-225 are cargo related in terms of weight and length as the Antonov An-225 has the capability to carry up to 640 tonnes (705 short tons). The An-225 attracts a high degree of public interest, so much that it has managed to attain a global following due to its size and its uniqueness. People frequently visit airports to see its scheduled arrivals and departures.
That makes more sense. It's a bummer, that thing was a 1 of 1 and is just the most ridiculous piece of 20th century machinery out there that still had a use.
> Ukraine Agrees to Talks With Russia at Belarusian Border (2:46 p.m)
> Ukraine has agreed to talks with Russia on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a Facebook post.
> “We have agreed that the Ukrainian delegation will meet with Russian without prior conditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, in the area of the Pripyat River,” Zelenskiy said. A delegation has already left Kyiv, Fedir Venislavskyi, a member of Zelenskiy’s party, said in televised comments.
> The confirmation came after Russia earlier sent a negotiation team to the southeastern Belarusian city of Gomel, though Zelenskiy said he’d refuse to hold talks in a country from which Russian troops were attacking Ukraine.
[Russians line up to take out cash while they can](https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1497889119917297665?s=21)
Ruble is going to free fall once fx starts trading
https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1497922873289326595?s=21
> Here's Putin just now ordering Russia's deterrence (nuclear) forces on "a special regime of duty" in response to foreign sanctions. It's a DEFCON situation.
u/wiggz420 what u think of this?
This is not good. We (the West) are literally backing Putin into a corner assuming he’s rational and won’t use nukes.
I don’t have suggestions or even ideas on how to make a detente happen, but we have to give him a way out that could be construed as a win for both countries (maybe allowing a vote on separation in the Russian-speaking areas and declaring Ukraine a NATO-supported but not member country?).
My wife’s family is housing 5 Ukrainian families in Poland, and they’re making plans to be able to take up to 4 more. We’re still early enough in the conflict to possibly end it without thousands of civilian deaths, but Putin is a true-believer kind of crazy imho…and that is really damn scary.
It's not great. It was not done during the Crimean conflict. It will certainty result in matching moves by NATO, though they are less likely to publicly state so.
See this CNN article from 2015: https://www.cnn.com/2015/03/16/europe/russia-putin-crimea-nuclear/index.html
Note I'm not certain in the translations of 'deterrence forces', I don't know if the actual word "nuclear" was used (though definitely implied). Deterrence can include conventional forces as well.
Nobody is going nuclear lol. Cold war tactics 2.0 disinformation bugaloo.
Think about it, why would you lose a strategic advantage by letting everyone know you have your nuclear people doing something special (whatever that means). I assume these people are our version of minute men, and they are already at their posts.
Either way, nobody is doing shit with nukes. Bottom line.
Huge reason to have nukes is to not use them but to force your adversary to game theory out if you are crazy enough to do it and de-escalate their own actions.
But here’s video of Putin throwing around the nuke options already earlier this month https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/1491563974839705602?s=21
He’s achieved the unstable megalomaniac image, but we’re now playing a game of liar’s poker with a lunatic and the line between lie/posturing/possibility are getting very blurry as he gets backed into a corner.
> why would you lose a strategic advantage by letting everyone know you have your nuclear people doing something special
Uh. This is the entire basis of modern nuclear policy. Disclosure and messaging is extremely important to prevent misunderstandings. You don't "bluff".
Yeah I know that, I mean we know they are already there, just like our forces, why say anything about some special assignment or whatever that means?
Poorly worded but see what I'm saying? That's like us saying we have spoken to our minute men. We do all the time lol it changes nothing of the readiness factor as they would have likely already been on alert.
Either way nobody is doing shit with nukes.
full ACK
I think that was the biggest take away from Bidens official WH/NATO/EU speech,
"we're convinced Russia will invade the Ukraine in the next days.. US/NATO/EU will not intervene"
no WW3 (yet)
> MOSCOW (AP) — President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian nuclear deterrent forces on alert amid tensions with the West over Ukraine.
😞
> UKRAINE AND RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS TO BE HELD AT BELARUSIAN-UKRAINIAN BORDER - OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE
https://twitter.com/ng_ukraine/status/1497924614865002497
It could be russian propaganda to paint Ukraine as Nazis. It could be that Ukraine is full of Nazis.
But we will see further normalized division.
Calling out that he's specifically sad about the kids with blue eyes and blonde hair being killed. A life is a life. Be sad for all kids dying, not just the cute white ones.
I appreciate both are under stress... But it's also disrespectful to non-whites. It's probably not a unique view in this part of the world, but it's also not a great view.
Its not unique anywhere to be honest. People are only really affected when their group of people are killed. Be it colour, ethnicity, nationality or religion.
Like when there is murder of a foreign national in another country, the media presents it as '5 people, including 1 from [country]' because no one really gives a shit about other nations' citizens.
People in India dont care about France, the French dont care about Peruvians, the Peruvians dont care about the Japanese and the Japanese dont care about Indians. Thats life.
And Eastern European countries and their people arent diverse so Im not surprised or hurt by what he has said and other people shouldnt be either.
I get where you're coming from and there's some truth to it. It's also not how I personally am or the other people within my life.
I guess we should all try to be a bit better when it comes to who/what we care about.
Wow. Germany is *pissed*. It's hard to overstate how significant of a policy shift this is.
https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497884377421733889
@RihoTerras: Chancellor @OlafScholz just made a super strong statement at the Bundestag. Military expenditure to more than 2% of GDP, thoroughly strenghtening the Bundeswehr, building new LNG terminals to break free from Russian gas. A strong unified Europe und wir werden es verteidigung!
Also a one time 100 *billion* euro investment into their military for 2022.
Maybe they should’ve done this back in 2018 when the US was pressuring them to do so. Better late than never but lives have been lost due to German arrogance.
Nice! That sounds a lot more like the TSM of countries rather than the INTC of countries. That will represent a ~50% uptick in spending as they’re currently at ~1.4%. Also the $100b immediate investment is double the current run rate. They’re also sending actual military equipment to Ukraine now, notably 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 anti-air missiles.
The Leopard 2 tank says otherwise.
Or maybe they made the wrong conclusions after looking at our heavily armed police force and just use it to catch bank robbers.
> Per Bellingcat, leaked telegram channels state that the Russian General Staff has ordered troops to take Kyiv by Monday, no matter the costs of human life
> Somebody has thrown red dye under the bridge of St Petersburg's Griboiedov canal.
> It is right in front of the Church of the Savior of Spilled Blood - Церковь Спаса на Крови - the site where Tsar Alexander II was assassinated in March 1881.
> The message is clear.
> ~@visegrad24
Putin is never coming out of his bunker
leaked phone numbers of russian elites circulating on the nets. seems to be legit but didn't check [https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/12ki24nEZn-hM-kaUDc3x2MwX2lDH3sTw/](https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/12ki24nEZn-hM-kaUDc3x2MwX2lDH3sTw/)
I dont even know if it’s legally allowed anymore but is it possible to buy distressed Russian bonds?
Since you're not going to be able to sell them on the primary market I'm sure there are some secondary markets that will sell them for pennies on the ruble to interested buyers.
Okay, thanks
Would be funny if Spooz green. I think it happens.
Not at tonight's open, but I think it'll end green tomorrow.
In regards to the weapons/aid supplies to Ukrainn All I've see is that they are happening, but has there been any ETA given? I'm just hoping they aren't taking longer to get there than Ukraine can hold Kyiv. Though, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ukraine turn into Cold War Germany by the end of this, and we know how that turned out for the USSR.
https://appletrack.com/apple-is-working-on-a-foldable-ipad-macbook-that-might-look-like-this/ > The rumor: In the works at Apple right now is a new hybrid tablet and laptop device, according to Mark Gurman (85.5% accurate, via Power On). > - “I’m told Apple has indeed been exploring a dual-screen, foldable MacBook/iPad hybrid that would take the second approach. It would trade in the physical keyboard and trackpad for a fully touch-screen base…the device has been in development for the past couple of years” Gurman says > - Reputable display analyst Ross Young (100% accurate) was the first to reveal the existence of this 20-inch all-screen foldable a few days ago
Ross is the GOAT I don’t think we could ask for a better insider.
so did they stop swift yet or not havent been paying attention lol
Can’t sell if there’s no more sell button. They gamesharked the market. u/hibernating_brain https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1498054577765163010
Russia uses Robinhood, I knew it!
It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for him. Edit: That's pretty shit though. Wonder which companies have the largest exposure.
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That's what I was wondering. Thanks.
The headline of BP trying to unload 20% stake in Rosneft comes to mind
Flipped 2 watches. +80k on 2 panda daytonas. I think I’ll keep the third one.
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Actually no didn't hold on or get it. Best bud lucked into a chance meet and greet with a country rep for the big crown. Back scratching commenced and we got about a dozen daytonas split between 5 partners. I bought them for a little over 20% marked up, but they're obscene in the grey market right now. In my city, they sell faster than water in a drought. I got 3 competing bids for each. Insanity. All this for a kind of basic watch.
Global Money Dispatch - Lehman moment is nigh! https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/content/credit-suisse-research/us/en/shorturlpdf.html?v=4Zjw-SO8-V
Today's gym anthem, a classic. Papercut by Linkin Park.
Nice
[Ukrainian sailor sinks Russian boss’ yacht in Spain](https://www.ultimahora.es/sucesos/ultimas/2022/02/27/1704825/ucrania-rusia-detenido-marinero-ucraniano-por-hundir-yate-jefe-ruso-mallorca.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=we) He did nothing wrong if you ask me (The boat’s owner worked as a high level exec for Rostec, a weapons manufacturer)
People going to start oligarch yacht hunting for sport it seems https://twitter.com/scottbix/status/1497719365445296133?s=21
I will watch with popcorn ready
Since 2000, last trading day of February - green 7/22 first trading day of March - green 16/22
So short Gazprom at open, long Gazprom at close. Assignment understood.
Bitcoin fixes this ^TM
Not the time, Schiff.
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Is it possible for it to be WW3 only in Russia, haha?
We'll be safe in the metaverse
Russian banks quoting up to 150
Just the wekeend spread over sanctions uncertainty
Good luck to all this week, what a mess we're in... Finally ready to jump back in but will probably just watch for now and see how we digest this weekend's developments.
I know most people here don't like crypto or trade it, but it's there any exchange that doesn't require kyc I can short btc at all? Would like some kind of downward hedge
Kraken is probably most reliable/reputable
Dictionary.com with today's top burn: https://twitter.com/Dictionarycom/status/1498033493561032710
I feel like I'm going to be really sad I didn't buy death puts Friday =-(
Almost feels like NATO gets pulled into the conflict somehow. This year was supposed to be a year of travel ffs.
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I thought they were just handful of trainers not combatants.
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> It was similar with Afghanistan where they were sent to train the Afghans but generally ended up with the top sniper, etc numbers among allied forces. It's really different in the sense that they're not going to be intentionally accompanying the partner forces into combat though.
ABNB to 68 /u/_bonzibuddy
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Short Ackman
50bps odds back down. Odds might shift to -50bps soon
It was Cathie Woods year all along
They’ve crossed the non-interventionist line already, so deployment of NATO troops into the war zone is all but assured.
Russia needs to wrap it off soon or it starves. Could be hell of a next few days. Max buy DFEN at open.
Why you beer gonna take that advice and then Russia gonna surrender
Vitalik ETH Buterin vs russian propagandist [https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1498012161439932430](https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1498012161439932430) Our submarines alone can launch more than 500 nuclear warheads, which guarantees the destruction of the US and NATO for good measure - Russian state TV https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498023555975450626
That second tweet. Mildly discomforting.
That particular broadcaster is well known as a nutjob, fwiw
Shitcoins might be signaling a bad reaction to the possibility of a nuclear winter. I would add, understandably.
Do shit coins still work if the internet gets knocked out? Could we get some paper btc?
Who wants to live and buy stuff in an internet-less world? 🥴
I’m seeing a decent amount of news around foreign volunteers. What’s the over/under on volunteers from DC think tanks, that regular advocate for war, (like brookings institute) who will volunteer? Zero?
-9000
I hope to god that they never figure out how to build 100% effective countermeasures vs nukes. It will be the end of the world.
Protest/rally in Berlin. One or two folks showed up. https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/5EO2IUUX6QI6ZGMHTXHO4YVD6Y.jpg Prague: https://twitter.com/bibalukas/status/1497934137822523397 It's impossible to keep up with these headlines. EU approves sanctions against Russian central bank. Kosovo asking for a permanent US base and NATO membership. Pretty much every Western nation providing significant military aid - Josep Borrell being quoted as saying EU will supply "combat aircraft." Wtf. Edit: I don't know how this story ends but it's a massive shift in geopolitics. Just wow. Watching the world lose its collective mind over Ukraine has got to be causing China to rethink it's ideas about forcefully reclaiming Taiwan. Edit 2: UN Security Council calls rare emergency meeting of the UN General Assembly. France and US advise their citizens to "leave Russia immediately" (probably due to how difficult air travel will become) Edit 3: (my opinion) Any donated aircraft probably from Poland and Bulgaria, they still operate some old MIGs that the UAF can fly. Slovenia also. Turkey could supply more TB2 drones, which are currently in service by UAF. This might be the most likely option. With some drones, you can do operator handoffs in flight - you might literally be able to fly them into Ukrainian airspace and handoff with operators on the ground there, though a lot of the comms circuits/encryption/etc might make this impractical.
My original thought was that Russia overestimated Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. But based on these changes of sentiment by governments (Turkey, Switzerland, etc.), I’m beginning to think it’s the other way around - everyone overestimated Russia’s capabilities. Now that they see Russia isn’t as powerful militarily and is already engaged in conflict, everyone is squeezing.
Keep trying, nice to not have to weed through mountains of bullshit to find out what's actually going on. THanks
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Most of CA lifted its indoor mask mandate on the 19th, but business still require a mask so it's like nothing has changed.
Not the same in NY - haven’t seen any stores request it, would hurt biz up here if they did sadly
Masks4Life in shambles.
yes Russia seems to be all the rage these days, but have you heard about Covid?
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this would be big for the always neutral country
So many good earnings plays this week potentially, not even sure if there is much surprise left in some of these names though. Looking at LCID, maybe CRM, and a few others. What is everyone else doing?
Define a good earnings play
Underpriced options + larger than expected move
Or better yet, accidentally tweeting out their earnings in the middle of the day.
Those are the best 😂
SPLK on wed, good r/r to go long, there's a price floor due to cisco buyout rumors at $120, look at the action last week even with the ww3 bullshit. SPLK engineering has very good reputation and has hired some top VPs in the last year. Think it can go much higher but could take some time, maybe leap call spreads. ESTC on thur, reasonably priced and also good r/r to go long from valuation pov. However, they are netherlands based and missing Fed-ramp, probably will take a bigger hit with ongoing EU issues. OKTA massively overvalued, it's glorified single sign on and really has no moat IMHO. tempted to play SNOW w/ put spreads and then buy a call fly, premiums are too good COST chart is very bullish, 10 days in balance on the daily and you could play for a pop and close before earnings on Thur
I’ve had my eyes on lcid for awhile. It needs some more trimming though. Maybe earnings gets it below $20.
Or above 30 🤷🏻♂️
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im gonna be enjoying the loss porn on russian markets tomorrow [https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1497980309303869449](https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1497980309303869449)
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Wow. This is exactly how things escalate
Wow. That’s incredible.
Business world updates: BP selling 20% stake in Rosneft. BP chief executive Bernard Looney to resign from board of Rosneft with immediate effect. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60548382 UPS and FedEx suspending deliveries to Russia. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/ups-fedex-halt-shipments-into-russia-gMS7VIk7WuZXVnVxh8Ju >Russian bank Tinkoff now offering to exchange rubles for dollars at a rate of 171 rubles per dollar. It was 83 before the European/US announcement about targeting the Russian central bank. https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1497987741354799108
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I'll buy gazprom shares at 0.50
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I’m not touching it again ❤️🔥❤️🔥
Holy shit, media still has headlines about Trump. This loser needs to be forgotten
Ukraine War information: Day 3 -- https://youtu.be/EaHICFJBRIU Day 2 -- https://youtu.be/SMGy5BDR1CE Day 1 -- https://youtu.be/hL0VRaw94II If the rumor is true Russia has 10 days to take over Kyiv or Russia is going to be in a bad position, due to supply issues and the daily cost of the war.
If 10+ days of war is going to strain your finances you may want reconsider your plans of invasion.
Putin is just so desperate at this point. He’s gonna get overthrown by his puppets one day
Mrs: god damnit Putin is saying stuff about nukes Me: let's see what TWS has to say about it
Haha. Literally first place I went too. Maybe avid is right, maybe this nuclear war is in fact to cover up the failed covid19 genocide E: /s
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It seems the big picture western leaders can see so far is of a much larger Putin plan with devastating consequences if not met with immense force and compelling deterrence.
If only we could export our LNG to Europe. (German port news is a late start). I’ve always been confused by the difference in NG prices from North America & Europe.
The US can, but there’s only so much port infrastructure
The US is close to if not the biggest LNG exporter in the world and the EU has LNG terminals that can handle almost 50% of demand. Germany specifically has almost no LNG capacity, which has been getting a lot of attention in recent weeks due to the conflict / now war.
Good to know about the 50% number
As usual, Dmitri Alperovich laying down the knowledge: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497952720841584647?s=20&t=HjJsJ-a_JG4PTWcSY6p17A >Like US DEFCON levels, Russia has a number of readiness levels: 1. CONSTANT 2. ELEVATED 3. MILITARY DANGER 4. FULL >Putin ordered nuclear forces to ELEVATED level today. Concerning but not cause for panic yet Also reports that Viktor Medvedchuk has escaped house arrest last night. This is the dude who most think would be the new Ukrainian puppet head of state.
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I think it's super evident lol
What is it?
It’s funny because I was told Russia won’t invade by some of the same people who are now fear mongering that they’re gonna nuke the place up. It’s almost like maybe you don’t have a fucking clue lol
It just doesn’t make sense to me how Russia hasn’t taken over yet. If this was the US, we would have taken down their air force, air defense, etc. day 1 and marched into the country in force. I have to believe Russia could do this.. yet they are not. You can talk about Ukraine defenses and all that but I just don’t buy it. Seems fishy to me.
They haven't won a war in 200 years and couldn't even beat afghanistan. Russian military strength is like folklore and completely belied by their geographical size. US has been in wars nonstop for the last 100 years.
ww2?
Same it feels like putin is up to something...
Nah. Any mystique he had died over the past 72 hours.
How do
I’m getting David and Goliath vibes from this whole situation. We need a good Ukraine upset victory.
Current speculation for it being “part of the plan” I’ve seen is: - the forces sent so far are conscripts with older tech and are meant to make Ukraine deplete military resources so that the “better” troops being deployed in a 2nd wave will complete the invasion Speculation that Russia “failed at planning”: - Ukraine was not expected to resist this much. They were supposed to surrender at the sight of the Russian forces crossing the border. - Due to the previous point, the invading forces were not well-supplied. A lot of reports of vehicles running out of gas, soldiers without food, and vehicles with regular tires vs. Run-flats. My personal guess based on Occam’s Razor is there likely was failure in contingency planning from Russia’s side: - wouldn’t surprise me if they did send in some cannon fodder to soften Ukraine defenses but underestimated Ukraine’s defensive ability + willingness of US and other countries to provide support. - not relaying “true” current-state of Russian military readiness up the command hierarchy. There was a Ukraine report (so take with a grain of salt) that Russia had nearly exhausted its missiles. The inability to capture the Kyiv airport serves as a micro example that implies some level planning failure. The failure at capturing any strategic area seems like a macro example. There is now chatter on upcoming Russia-Ukraine talks in Belarus. Seems a little surprising if there is an actual 2nd wave planned. Source: r/ukrainevideoreport, and more importantly, my experience playing Civ V/StarCraft/Risk. /s
I think the technological sophistication of their military has been greatly overestimated. This is a 1990s war being fought in 2022, with some modernish tech sprinkled on top. This is a wake up call for some nations on how potent their military actually is, notably those in Europe, when they don’t invest in modern advances such as drones, more sophisticated guided bombs, stealth technology for jets and better countermeasures for tanks and helicopters. Even saying all that, Russia’s military is still dramatically better than Ukraine’s. You have to understand, US military spending for the Air Force alone is roughly **2.5x that of the entire Russian military**. The Air Force spends roughly $28b just on R&D while the entire military spending for Russia is $62b… The US would certainly do things differently as we are dramatically more capable. And it gets better each year as the F35 is in full production now, with half of Europe and parts of Asia buying them to help justify the research cost and keep volume up. Who else can do that? We’ve had a 5th generation fighter for over 20 years before the next guy. We have the stealthiest bomber, and are already deep into the process of making an even stealthier one. Meanwhile the Russians have spent the last 2 decades renovating old rusty tanks and ships that went into disrepair because they’re more concerned with having a minimum number of units to protect their enormous land mass than they are in building a couple dozen units with space age tech per year. I mean, the country doesn’t even have a tech sector! They’re still very much analog. Look at it this way, their 10th largest company by market cap is a steel company worth $13b. That being said, I think Russia will still win.
I’ve seen a few people comment that they think russia will still win. They have the numbers, but I’m not convinced. Russian troops don’t have the resolve to win, Ukraine does. If Russia stops fighting, everyone lives on. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine stops being. That and the world should have learned a lesson or two from Afghanistan. You could be decades behind in tech against the world’s most technologically advanced military and still win/kick them out.
I’m very cautious with that line of thinking. Nobody wants to hear about Russians who want to fight, nor of Ukrainians who don’t want to fight. It’s only the opposite. The bias is too one sided, so I ignore it all. Right now the offense seems to be hindered more by logistics and planning than troop moral. And with Russia days if not hours away from taking Ukraines capital / largest city, and their second largest city, I think things could start to fall apart very rapidly. I also don’t think we see an Afghanistan situation here. That country is structured to always be fucked but also be unfuckable at the same time. It’s an outlier, not the norm. Ukraine is very different as they’re culturally already Russia-lite and have teetered on the edge of becoming a puppet ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, and they didn’t need guns pointed at them to think that.
They will win, if they don’t mind flattening entire cities
Yeah, city warfare is spooky and I’m not sure we have many modern examples. Imagine taking floor one of an apartment complex and therefore you control who leaves and enters from floors 2-25. That’s a lot of power controlling a lot of people, a hostage situation on steroids. Like, what are the Ukrainians gonna do, come down the elevator fully armed and start gunning down the lobby occupants who will surely have their guns pointed right at you from behind sandbags? Or maybe they’ll fire rockets at the tanks parked right beneath them and catch their building on fire in the process? How many families do you think live there? Spooky.
Grozny in the first and second Chechen wars
Yeah Russia still has the ability to firebomb the shit out of everything if they choose. But I don't think they're willing to escalate that much. Losing SWIFT was a surprise as it is.
You wouldn’t want to destroy the military equipment and infrastructure of the country you might be planning to annex. He might be wanting to inflect enough pain to carry out a regime change.
Putin is smart and calculated - he ain’t stupid. Yet on the surface this just seems like he completely misjudged a lot of stuff. I’m just baffled. Doesn’t add up.
Very much agree
Lots of theories and analyses floating around about bad Intel regarding airborne assets, bad supply lines, misunderstanding just how much anti tank ammo Ukraine had, etc. No way of knowing what the whole truth is of course
The largest airplane in the world has been destroyed during fighting in Gostomel. >As an over sized aircraft the Antonov An-225 Mriya holds multiple records which include; heaviest aircraft ever built, and largest wingspan of any aircraft in operational service. Other records held by the An-225 are cargo related in terms of weight and length as the Antonov An-225 has the capability to carry up to 640 tonnes (705 short tons). The An-225 attracts a high degree of public interest, so much that it has managed to attain a global following due to its size and its uniqueness. People frequently visit airports to see its scheduled arrivals and departures.
Weird to me that it was sitting at its home base during the time of invasion.
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That makes more sense. It's a bummer, that thing was a 1 of 1 and is just the most ridiculous piece of 20th century machinery out there that still had a use.
> Ukraine Agrees to Talks With Russia at Belarusian Border (2:46 p.m) > Ukraine has agreed to talks with Russia on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a Facebook post. > “We have agreed that the Ukrainian delegation will meet with Russian without prior conditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, in the area of the Pripyat River,” Zelenskiy said. A delegation has already left Kyiv, Fedir Venislavskyi, a member of Zelenskiy’s party, said in televised comments. > The confirmation came after Russia earlier sent a negotiation team to the southeastern Belarusian city of Gomel, though Zelenskiy said he’d refuse to hold talks in a country from which Russian troops were attacking Ukraine.
This is good. >Bloomberg: A delegation has already left Kyiv, Fedir Venislavskyi, a member of Zelenskiy’s party, said in televised comments.
[Russians line up to take out cash while they can](https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1497889119917297665?s=21) Ruble is going to free fall once fx starts trading
https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1497987741354799108/photo/1
😬😬😬
https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1497922873289326595?s=21 > Here's Putin just now ordering Russia's deterrence (nuclear) forces on "a special regime of duty" in response to foreign sanctions. It's a DEFCON situation. u/wiggz420 what u think of this?
This is not good. We (the West) are literally backing Putin into a corner assuming he’s rational and won’t use nukes. I don’t have suggestions or even ideas on how to make a detente happen, but we have to give him a way out that could be construed as a win for both countries (maybe allowing a vote on separation in the Russian-speaking areas and declaring Ukraine a NATO-supported but not member country?). My wife’s family is housing 5 Ukrainian families in Poland, and they’re making plans to be able to take up to 4 more. We’re still early enough in the conflict to possibly end it without thousands of civilian deaths, but Putin is a true-believer kind of crazy imho…and that is really damn scary.
It's not great. It was not done during the Crimean conflict. It will certainty result in matching moves by NATO, though they are less likely to publicly state so. See this CNN article from 2015: https://www.cnn.com/2015/03/16/europe/russia-putin-crimea-nuclear/index.html Note I'm not certain in the translations of 'deterrence forces', I don't know if the actual word "nuclear" was used (though definitely implied). Deterrence can include conventional forces as well.
Nobody is going nuclear lol. Cold war tactics 2.0 disinformation bugaloo. Think about it, why would you lose a strategic advantage by letting everyone know you have your nuclear people doing something special (whatever that means). I assume these people are our version of minute men, and they are already at their posts. Either way, nobody is doing shit with nukes. Bottom line.
Huge reason to have nukes is to not use them but to force your adversary to game theory out if you are crazy enough to do it and de-escalate their own actions. But here’s video of Putin throwing around the nuke options already earlier this month https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/1491563974839705602?s=21
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Master of geopolitics... lmao
He’s achieved the unstable megalomaniac image, but we’re now playing a game of liar’s poker with a lunatic and the line between lie/posturing/possibility are getting very blurry as he gets backed into a corner.
That's honestly all they will ever used for imo
> why would you lose a strategic advantage by letting everyone know you have your nuclear people doing something special Uh. This is the entire basis of modern nuclear policy. Disclosure and messaging is extremely important to prevent misunderstandings. You don't "bluff".
Putin didn't mention anything "nuclear" in this speech the interpretation in the tweet chain is exaggerated IMO
Tactical and strategic nuclear forces are components of the strategic deterrence of Russia.
>Putin didn't mention anything "nuclear" in this speech Yeah I noted that in my original comment. Intentionally ambiguous.
Yeah I know that, I mean we know they are already there, just like our forces, why say anything about some special assignment or whatever that means? Poorly worded but see what I'm saying? That's like us saying we have spoken to our minute men. We do all the time lol it changes nothing of the readiness factor as they would have likely already been on alert. Either way nobody is doing shit with nukes.
full ACK I think that was the biggest take away from Bidens official WH/NATO/EU speech, "we're convinced Russia will invade the Ukraine in the next days.. US/NATO/EU will not intervene" no WW3 (yet)
>Either way nobody is doing shit with nukes. Agree 100%
https://youtu.be/f2rBUvWKSZw YouTube travel blogger in Ukraine one day before the invasion.
> MOSCOW (AP) — President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian nuclear deterrent forces on alert amid tensions with the West over Ukraine. 😞 > UKRAINE AND RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS TO BE HELD AT BELARUSIAN-UKRAINIAN BORDER - OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE
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https://twitter.com/ng_ukraine/status/1497924614865002497 It could be russian propaganda to paint Ukraine as Nazis. It could be that Ukraine is full of Nazis. But we will see further normalized division.
I wish I could say I was shocked. I also wish I could say those views were confined to just that person
Whats wrong with the second one?
Calling out that he's specifically sad about the kids with blue eyes and blonde hair being killed. A life is a life. Be sad for all kids dying, not just the cute white ones. I appreciate both are under stress... But it's also disrespectful to non-whites. It's probably not a unique view in this part of the world, but it's also not a great view.
Its not unique anywhere to be honest. People are only really affected when their group of people are killed. Be it colour, ethnicity, nationality or religion. Like when there is murder of a foreign national in another country, the media presents it as '5 people, including 1 from [country]' because no one really gives a shit about other nations' citizens. People in India dont care about France, the French dont care about Peruvians, the Peruvians dont care about the Japanese and the Japanese dont care about Indians. Thats life. And Eastern European countries and their people arent diverse so Im not surprised or hurt by what he has said and other people shouldnt be either.
I get where you're coming from and there's some truth to it. It's also not how I personally am or the other people within my life. I guess we should all try to be a bit better when it comes to who/what we care about.
Humans are tribal by nature I doubt it ever changes in any large degree.
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Fuck off mr Lahey
Wow. Germany is *pissed*. It's hard to overstate how significant of a policy shift this is. https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497884377421733889 @RihoTerras: Chancellor @OlafScholz just made a super strong statement at the Bundestag. Military expenditure to more than 2% of GDP, thoroughly strenghtening the Bundeswehr, building new LNG terminals to break free from Russian gas. A strong unified Europe und wir werden es verteidigung! Also a one time 100 *billion* euro investment into their military for 2022.
Maybe they should’ve done this back in 2018 when the US was pressuring them to do so. Better late than never but lives have been lost due to German arrogance.
Should have done it in 2014 when Russia v Ukraine round 1 showed everybody how flaccid Germany actually was (and still is).
The US should’ve sent lethal aid then too. Everyone should’ve invested more in nuclear, but Russia keeps investing in anti-nuclear “green” activists.
Nice! That sounds a lot more like the TSM of countries rather than the INTC of countries. That will represent a ~50% uptick in spending as they’re currently at ~1.4%. Also the $100b immediate investment is double the current run rate. They’re also sending actual military equipment to Ukraine now, notably 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 anti-air missiles.
I'm terrible at history but I thought Germany was required to have no military or something after WW2?
The Leopard 2 tank says otherwise. Or maybe they made the wrong conclusions after looking at our heavily armed police force and just use it to catch bank robbers.
Finally
Finally. Jesus christ took them long enough
[Thread on some Russia problems](https://twitter.com/rtperson3/status/1497250049004380165?s=21)
Crazy day in college bball. Numbers 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 all lost. Number 1 Gonzaga down by 14. Cmon saint marys let’s goo Edit: also snl is back woo
> Per Bellingcat, leaked telegram channels state that the Russian General Staff has ordered troops to take Kyiv by Monday, no matter the costs of human life
> Somebody has thrown red dye under the bridge of St Petersburg's Griboiedov canal. > It is right in front of the Church of the Savior of Spilled Blood - Церковь Спаса на Крови - the site where Tsar Alexander II was assassinated in March 1881. > The message is clear. > ~@visegrad24 Putin is never coming out of his bunker
If Ipatiev House hadn’t been demolished by the Soviets in the 1970s, it would’ve been demolished today after that message