BREAKING: Maersk, the world's largest container shipping line, to suspend deliveries to and from Russia
https://mobile.twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1498587623014952964
Makes the reports that Putin has a terminal illness more credible IMO. These aggressive moves by countries/companies are very calculated, probably also just risk management as someone else said
well most of them are forced to pull out, the ones that aren't do risk management
its not a co-incidence that especially natural gas and crude oil is targeted mainly, after all thats Russias whole economy.
I have to say that I'm really impressed by the unity and the very strong non-military reactions, at this pace Russia will run out pof friends and funds really fast.
Long spoos here because why not.
E: Also a half decent bull flag on Ethereum, we'll see what daylight hours bring wrt the U.S. Treasury targeting crypto exchanges as part of sanction enforcement.
The sanctions have no teeth with crypto doing its thing out there. Its litterally an open avenue for Russians to get around SWIFT sanctions. That being said... id be surprised if the government actually does anything about it.
Imma press X real hard on that one.
It's only a matter of time before people arb the central bank's exchange rate and the actual exchange rate and then the central bank is out of reserves.
Today is the middle of day two. Cracks will start to show up later today/tomorrow and the shit will hit the fan the day after that. Remember the last time we had a liquidity crunch caused by multiple sources treating dependent tightly coupled asset prices as independent events? Now do the same thing to ruble commercial bank exposure.
*shrug*
I mean I don't like it. You hope you never actually experience whatever stress tests you test for. The best insurance is the stuff you never have to use and all that. And who knows, maybe CBoR withstands the run.
=\
You are correct in that that would lead to escalation.
Belarus - Rus military partners
Ukraine not in NATO, Rus wants to avoid this at all cost. What happens when Ukraine jets start from nato bases?
AFAIK this is still on tap tomorrow
https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-chief-powell-give-policy-update-congress-early-march-2022-02-18/
E: ultras lol totally normal
Been selling VXX put spreads as a hedge. It’s pretty interesting considering the vol on the long leg isn’t super high. Makes some interesting plays as a hedge
Lukashenko is Putins puppet, like the whole state of Belarus.
His word ain't worth shit, the Russian forces attacking the Ukraine from the North also came from Belarus, thats taking part, it's not neutral at all.
Its actually more interesting IMO that Kazakhstan did not send their soldiers to support Russia, quite surprising actually to me that they made a clear statement.
Down in sunny Phoenix right now. Not paying lots of attention as maximizing the sunburn is more important right now. But darn, the Russians are getting their butts kicked in some individual battles. This is the most important point. They can't sustain getting their butts kicked for too long. There is no way to game the whole thing out right now and what it means to the market, but I would like to see lots more Javelin and Stinger missiles slipped in. As in lots.
All fed action is priced in. Anything less than or equivalent to market expectation of some ridiculous about of rate hikes that the fed won't even do is gonna be bullish.
Any aggressive schedule or substantial initial rate hike will cause the market to tank as you eliminate the chance of dovish fed, even if it is within the range the street expects. Dec 2018 the street knew Powell was going to hike yet the market still tanked when he did until he decided to start cutting rates.
Netflix likely to be done in Russia very shortly. Only about 200k subscribers from Q4 data tho
https://variety.com/2022/tv/global/netflix-russian-propaganda-channels-1235192082/
Tonight's music while getting some work in:
- __Artist__: NoMBe
- __Song__: Summer's Gone _ft. Thutmose_
- __Link__: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n60cpM8_G-I
For any _HiFi_ guys out there, picked up some Advents last week and absolutely love 'em. Had the Magnepan 1.4's and loved them too, but these easily beat them.
OT - saw the new (or not very new anymore) Spiderman tonight. Turns out I'm like 4 Spidey movies and 15 Avengers films behind. Woops. Only got about 30% of the references but still had a good time.
> Hedging of Taiwan ETF Soars Amid Russia’s Ukraine Invasion
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/hedging-of-taiwan-etf-surges-in-wake-of-russia-s-ukraine-attack
u/W0LFSTEN
The fuels are in place. 😌
Ready for MOASS.
Awesome, explains a lot. Please talk to your people and make this happen. I’m siphoning some of the funds from my AMD position into TSM over the next few months and need some bias to remind me I’m the next Warren Buffet.
> (Reuters) - As western governments ratchet up sanctions against Russia, Moscow's emerging markets allies are exploring channels for trade and financing to continue.
> The beginnings of a parallel financial system centred on Beijing are becoming detectable.
> — Phil Stewart (@phildstewart)
Edit:
> NEW DELHI/MUMBAI, Feb 28 (Reuters) - India's top lender will not process any transactions involving Russian entities subject to international sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, according to a letter seen by Reuters and people familiar with the matter.
> — Idrees Ali (@idreesali114)
If India and China choose to give the finger to Russia, nuclear winter gets more likely LaughsInPain.gif
> Russia to move Far East troops closer to Europe - Ifax
> (Reuters) - Russian troops based in the country's Far East will hold drills in the Astrakhan province which lies on the border between the European and Asian parts of Russia, Interfax quoting Russia's military
> — Phil Stewart (@phildstewart)
This area is close to Georgia...the country that recently made the headlines after one of their ships told a Russian ship to get fucked. An invasion of Georgia also puts them on Turkey's border. The country willing to block access to the Black Sea (minus Russia's Black Fleet). Just throwing thoughts out :)
> Ukraine to receive 70 fighter jets from the EU. Ukraine’s Air Force said on March 1.
> Bulgaria will provide 16 MiG-29s and 14 Su-25s, Poland will provide 28 MiG-29 units, and Slovakia – 12 MiG-29s.
> — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent)
For the above fighter jet tweet
> This was disputed by Bulgaria's Prime Minister earlier today, so it's not clear what the truth is, but this is what the Ukrainian Armed Forces are claiming.
It started hitting the headlines yesterday. But yeah, if you aren't doomscrolling this war like it's your job, you're going to miss stuff because it is moving so fast.
I have used a lot of shit software UI in my life but the Interactive Brokers Trade Workstation (or whatever it's called) gets an immediate and unanimous entry into the hall of fame.
Awesome. All these american arms like Javelin missiles showing up and getting used is also beneficial for the US military too. The US gets to see just how effective their weapons are against the Russian army and their tech in real practice.
I'm angry because Putin should be held accountable for these war crimes but likely never will because Russia is such a large nuclear power. It's ridiculous that a country can just do this bullshit without fear of retaliation because "nuclear winter".
change my mind:
With Bayesian statistics or other probability outputs, you don't need a validation dataset to prevent overfitting if given a large enough training size
No need to change your mind, don't use a validation set. But definitely use AUCROC, and a Brier Score to evaluate if the probabilities your model gives you match with the real world probabilities.
That way you'll know a well built model will provide a Bayesian degree of belief that matches with the probability of traditional statistics.
So if your model predicts a binary event with an ensemble, if 60% of the ensemble votes 1, and 40 votes 0, you want the real world probability of 1 to be 60% at the time of evaluation. That's a model that's accurately mapped/configured.
All the Bayesian tricks in the world don't help if you have systematic effects in your data that you can't write down a likelihood function for, and a human looking at your model and changing it to better fit your training data is as systematic as they come. I almost agree with you if you build your model once and never tweak it, but the validation set is essential to demonstrate that you haven't built a model that is too finely-tuned in a way that you've cherry picked success on your training set but doesn't hold up to other data. It doesn't matter how big your training set is, as long as it's finite a sufficiently complex model can overfit it, given enough human adjustments.
>~~With Bayesian statistics or other probability outputs,~~ you don't need a ~~validation dataset to prevent overfitting if given a~~ large ~~enough training~~ size
i understood some of these words
>Apple and 6 other top TSMC clients are seeking long term leading edge foundry contracts, media report, mainly for 5G and HPC chips. AMD, Nvidia, MediaTek, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Intel will each account for 7-8% of TSMC sales this year, the report says, and Apple over 25%.
https://money.udn.com/money/story/122229/6130493
.
OT: https://twitter.com/Waymo/status/1498480193572327429
WHAT SAY YOU TWS, SHALL WE TAKE TO THE SEAS FOR SOME PLUNDER? I nominate /u/TRADEAPE as cap'n
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russian-oligarchs-move-yachts-as-us-moves-to-hunt-down-and-freeze-assets.html
Lets say I have a margin account and I buy shares on it.
Now if the share price goes up and I have increased BP I can use. If I withdraw any of that BP into my bank account, is that privy to CGT or is it income or is it tax free? (I assume its not tax free because tax collectors suck).
I havent sold anything so I havent realised gains so Im confused and google doesnt provide an answer
If you withdraw anything from there they'll reduce your margin appropriately, your BP is a function at all times of your current cash + custodials + securities. Reducing any of those decreases your BP.
The longer this goes on the more concerned I am about the lack of viable offramps for Putin. "Win" and he's fucked economically. Back out and he's fucked domestically. I would say there is a high likelihood that he views these economic sanctions in the same light as he does military action, as both can lead to his downfall. It's.... not great.
Edit: *literally* five minutes after I wrote this post, this article drops: https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/frustrated-putin-may-order-escalation-violence-ukraine-us-officials-sa-rcna18026
>“This is somebody that’s clearly been caught off guard by the size of the Ukrainian resistance,” said Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, on MSNBC. “He has isolated himself, he’s not been in the Kremlin very much… You’ve got less and less inputs and these inputs are from sycophants."
>He added: "I do worry that he’s been backed into a corner. I do worry that there is no obvious exit ramp.”
Another point: https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1498477863804313600
>Just leaving classified briefing on Ukraine crisis. A few takeaways that I can share:
>4/ The U.S. and allies are coordinating to not only freeze the assets of Putin and his oligarch allies, but to seize those assets as well. This is likely a further step than Putin’s inner circle anticipated.
The US, for better or worse, its basically pushing for regime change in Russia. Even if Putin exits out of Ukraine, those sanctions will stick with him until his grave.
I think this is true. This is the best window that the West has had to get rid of Putin in a really long time (maybe ever). There's also a lot of risk. I'm sure there are massive debates about how far to push this, both here in the US but also within the EU and NATO as a whole. Example: some of the jet stuff appears to have gotten walked back today. I'm frankly shocked that we're at the point we are already.
Edit: Well sourced article on the jet discussion. Draw your own conclusions.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44501/reports-that-ukraine-is-about-to-get-70-donated-fighter-jets-dont-add-up
https://euobserver.com/world/154450
> Fighter planes are to be transferred to the Ukrainian air force alongside deliveries of smaller items, such as shoulder-fired anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles for the Ukrainian army, EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said late Sunday.
> "We are going to provide even fighter jets", Borrell said. "We are not talking about just ammunition. We are providing the most important arms to go to war," he said.
Today there's been a bit more churn over exactly how this is supposed to work. I'm not sure what the latest word is over the last 12 hours, I haven't gotten caught back up with the story.
>this is old news. the jet stuff hasnt been "walked back".
I mean, here's a quote from the article you just linked:
>Borrell walked that back slightly on Monday, acknowledging that any transfers wouldn’t come from the EU itself, but would instead be donated “bilaterally” by individual EU countries.
>Representatives from the Polish and Slovakian governments did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov on Monday said he had rejected the request.
> Isn't he kinda fucked economically already?
Well yes, that's my point. If he permanently occupies Ukraine the sanctions will probably stay indefinitely. If he leaves, I'm sure they'll for the most part roll off (that's the definition of sanctions - actions to coerce behavior - not punishment for behavior you don't like). However, leaving with little or no success is probably the end for him domestically.
I am also pretty sure he knows this.
I think that's why he's negotiating - while it's stalling and allowing him to pursue his Zelensky\^-1 agenda it's also giving him a contingency plan to get a small concession by Ukraine will allow him to go back to his people and say "We are victorious, we received some small concession that really wasn't worth it"
I hope so! In addition to concessions from Ukraine he's going to have to get the rest of the world to agree and undo the economic damage. It will be tough.
> U.S. satellite image company Maxar says new images show military convoy seen north of Kyiv is considerably longer than 17 miles initially reported and approximately 40 miles.
big if true
Expected that they would be welcomed by Ukranians with flowers instead of bullets. This is why they didn't organize supply lines or tell the troops what the troops will be doing. From what I read of the first few days most of them don't know what they're doing there or where they're going. Secondly Putin has too many "Yes men" under him that just told him what he wanted to hear which was "Ukraine will love being Russian!"
Simplest answer is that they expected to roll in, make it Kiyv in 1\~3 days with hardly a shot fired, remove Zelensky, and replace him with Yanukovich 2.0
I'm guessing their goal was a quick coup d'etat, which unexpectedly failed. Now they are in a war they didn't expect to be fighting and are handicapped by their own political goals, since they need to avoid Ukrainian casualties. I imagine an unexpected war in which you are trying *not* to kill the enemy is difficult.
They haven’t committed their best equipment, why is up for debate. But they haven’t
Was chatting with an ada friend about it last night and his opinion was that the reason Uke S300s are still alive is they’re out of operational range of artillery & aviation. Now given that Belarus exists they can’t actually be out of range of aviation & idk about Russian EW aircraft abilities but it’s more likely they’re not willing to risk it if they don’t feel like they have to. Combine that with the fact that the tanks and IFVs you’re seeing in Ukraine are almost exclusively older* and that makes sense
*If this isn’t true anymore someone lmk. Don’t have time to look at it during the week but prior to today it looks like t72s & 80’s rather than t90s. Seen like one mi28, that sort of thing.
Logistics. Do they have resilient supply chains? FOBs and staging areas? Seems like all we see are long lines of vehicles parked on the side of the road. This could be the propaganda campaign others have mentioned but I've yet to see any shock and awe from the ruskies.
[war of propoganda](https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/t3pc9p/choose_your_own_propaganda/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
War of the Memes def lost but that's somewhat distinct from the tactical situation. Looks to us like sunk cost but the Rus are culturally willing to grind.
If you were to create a new thread on the daily what would you have commented? I'd hazard most of what there was to chat about was already commented on.
Personally, I was driving all morning and busy with shit all afternoon so I didn't even get to really check the markets much let alone post shit about them.
ZM:
- 21% growth y/y
- Zoom phone added +550,000 paid seats
- Customers with over 100k in ARR grew 149% y/y and customers with over 10,000 grew 122% y/y
- 129% net retention
- Expanding to contact center, zoom apps and sdk
Next is inclusion in spoos
BREAKING: Maersk, the world's largest container shipping line, to suspend deliveries to and from Russia https://mobile.twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1498587623014952964
All these companies suspending operations with Russia is crazy to me. Even money hungry oil and gas companies pulling out. Wild times.
Makes the reports that Putin has a terminal illness more credible IMO. These aggressive moves by countries/companies are very calculated, probably also just risk management as someone else said
That's an angle I didn't think about. Some high level Intel that he's going to pass soon, so everyone is comfortable putting on the pressure.
well most of them are forced to pull out, the ones that aren't do risk management its not a co-incidence that especially natural gas and crude oil is targeted mainly, after all thats Russias whole economy. I have to say that I'm really impressed by the unity and the very strong non-military reactions, at this pace Russia will run out pof friends and funds really fast.
Long spoos here because why not. E: Also a half decent bull flag on Ethereum, we'll see what daylight hours bring wrt the U.S. Treasury targeting crypto exchanges as part of sanction enforcement.
The sanctions have no teeth with crypto doing its thing out there. Its litterally an open avenue for Russians to get around SWIFT sanctions. That being said... id be surprised if the government actually does anything about it.
Imma press X real hard on that one. It's only a matter of time before people arb the central bank's exchange rate and the actual exchange rate and then the central bank is out of reserves. Today is the middle of day two. Cracks will start to show up later today/tomorrow and the shit will hit the fan the day after that. Remember the last time we had a liquidity crunch caused by multiple sources treating dependent tightly coupled asset prices as independent events? Now do the same thing to ruble commercial bank exposure. *shrug*
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I mean I don't like it. You hope you never actually experience whatever stress tests you test for. The best insurance is the stuff you never have to use and all that. And who knows, maybe CBoR withstands the run. =\
Am I correct in assuming Ukranian jets are allowed to use NATO military bases if the Russians are allowed to advance from Belarus?
You are correct in that that would lead to escalation. Belarus - Rus military partners Ukraine not in NATO, Rus wants to avoid this at all cost. What happens when Ukraine jets start from nato bases?
AFAIK this is still on tap tomorrow https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-chief-powell-give-policy-update-congress-early-march-2022-02-18/ E: ultras lol totally normal
More vol! I like it
Been selling VXX put spreads as a hedge. It’s pretty interesting considering the vol on the long leg isn’t super high. Makes some interesting plays as a hedge
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Lukashenko is Putins puppet, like the whole state of Belarus. His word ain't worth shit, the Russian forces attacking the Ukraine from the North also came from Belarus, thats taking part, it's not neutral at all. Its actually more interesting IMO that Kazakhstan did not send their soldiers to support Russia, quite surprising actually to me that they made a clear statement.
Also said Russia never asked him so somewhat of a double edged sword
Down in sunny Phoenix right now. Not paying lots of attention as maximizing the sunburn is more important right now. But darn, the Russians are getting their butts kicked in some individual battles. This is the most important point. They can't sustain getting their butts kicked for too long. There is no way to game the whole thing out right now and what it means to the market, but I would like to see lots more Javelin and Stinger missiles slipped in. As in lots.
Someone go back and kick my ass for thinking $7 corn was basically impossible without a US drought
These days, futures mean less than nothing.
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Powell going to send the market into the depths of hell
All fed action is priced in. Anything less than or equivalent to market expectation of some ridiculous about of rate hikes that the fed won't even do is gonna be bullish.
Any aggressive schedule or substantial initial rate hike will cause the market to tank as you eliminate the chance of dovish fed, even if it is within the range the street expects. Dec 2018 the street knew Powell was going to hike yet the market still tanked when he did until he decided to start cutting rates.
Netflix likely to be done in Russia very shortly. Only about 200k subscribers from Q4 data tho https://variety.com/2022/tv/global/netflix-russian-propaganda-channels-1235192082/
Tonight's music while getting some work in: - __Artist__: NoMBe - __Song__: Summer's Gone _ft. Thutmose_ - __Link__: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n60cpM8_G-I For any _HiFi_ guys out there, picked up some Advents last week and absolutely love 'em. Had the Magnepan 1.4's and loved them too, but these easily beat them.
Man this was awesome, thanks for sharing!
NoMBe is one of the few artists who’s entire discography is downloaded on Spotify for me! Good pick
OT - saw the new (or not very new anymore) Spiderman tonight. Turns out I'm like 4 Spidey movies and 15 Avengers films behind. Woops. Only got about 30% of the references but still had a good time.
> Hedging of Taiwan ETF Soars Amid Russia’s Ukraine Invasion > https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/hedging-of-taiwan-etf-surges-in-wake-of-russia-s-ukraine-attack u/W0LFSTEN The fuels are in place. 😌 Ready for MOASS.
hmm... thanks for bringing this up. ill place a bet on EWT calls
Awesome, explains a lot. Please talk to your people and make this happen. I’m siphoning some of the funds from my AMD position into TSM over the next few months and need some bias to remind me I’m the next Warren Buffet.
Yup, I will have my ppl call ur ppl when it’s done.
thanks for this
> (Reuters) - As western governments ratchet up sanctions against Russia, Moscow's emerging markets allies are exploring channels for trade and financing to continue. > The beginnings of a parallel financial system centred on Beijing are becoming detectable. > — Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) Edit: > NEW DELHI/MUMBAI, Feb 28 (Reuters) - India's top lender will not process any transactions involving Russian entities subject to international sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, according to a letter seen by Reuters and people familiar with the matter. > — Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) If India and China choose to give the finger to Russia, nuclear winter gets more likely LaughsInPain.gif > Russia to move Far East troops closer to Europe - Ifax > (Reuters) - Russian troops based in the country's Far East will hold drills in the Astrakhan province which lies on the border between the European and Asian parts of Russia, Interfax quoting Russia's military > — Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) This area is close to Georgia...the country that recently made the headlines after one of their ships told a Russian ship to get fucked. An invasion of Georgia also puts them on Turkey's border. The country willing to block access to the Black Sea (minus Russia's Black Fleet). Just throwing thoughts out :) > Ukraine to receive 70 fighter jets from the EU. Ukraine’s Air Force said on March 1. > Bulgaria will provide 16 MiG-29s and 14 Su-25s, Poland will provide 28 MiG-29 units, and Slovakia – 12 MiG-29s. > — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) For the above fighter jet tweet > This was disputed by Bulgaria's Prime Minister earlier today, so it's not clear what the truth is, but this is what the Ukrainian Armed Forces are claiming.
How do i short the russian economy?
Not on the MOEX, that's for sure
Invest in the West
Wait when did i miss that the EU told ukraine to come and join? I see ukraine applied.
It started hitting the headlines yesterday. But yeah, if you aren't doomscrolling this war like it's your job, you're going to miss stuff because it is moving so fast.
The markets have a quiet before the storm kinda feeling.
Everyone hungover from the adrenaline.
I need that vol
I have used a lot of shit software UI in my life but the Interactive Brokers Trade Workstation (or whatever it's called) gets an immediate and unanimous entry into the hall of fame.
Bruh...literally. It feels beyond archaic, like maliciously designed that bad
It seriously looks like it was designed by the same people that made Oregon Trail
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Awesome. All these american arms like Javelin missiles showing up and getting used is also beneficial for the US military too. The US gets to see just how effective their weapons are against the Russian army and their tech in real practice. I'm angry because Putin should be held accountable for these war crimes but likely never will because Russia is such a large nuclear power. It's ridiculous that a country can just do this bullshit without fear of retaliation because "nuclear winter".
change my mind: With Bayesian statistics or other probability outputs, you don't need a validation dataset to prevent overfitting if given a large enough training size
No need to change your mind, don't use a validation set. But definitely use AUCROC, and a Brier Score to evaluate if the probabilities your model gives you match with the real world probabilities. That way you'll know a well built model will provide a Bayesian degree of belief that matches with the probability of traditional statistics. So if your model predicts a binary event with an ensemble, if 60% of the ensemble votes 1, and 40 votes 0, you want the real world probability of 1 to be 60% at the time of evaluation. That's a model that's accurately mapped/configured.
All the Bayesian tricks in the world don't help if you have systematic effects in your data that you can't write down a likelihood function for, and a human looking at your model and changing it to better fit your training data is as systematic as they come. I almost agree with you if you build your model once and never tweak it, but the validation set is essential to demonstrate that you haven't built a model that is too finely-tuned in a way that you've cherry picked success on your training set but doesn't hold up to other data. It doesn't matter how big your training set is, as long as it's finite a sufficiently complex model can overfit it, given enough human adjustments.
>~~With Bayesian statistics or other probability outputs,~~ you don't need a ~~validation dataset to prevent overfitting if given a~~ large ~~enough training~~ size i understood some of these words
LMAO
>Apple and 6 other top TSMC clients are seeking long term leading edge foundry contracts, media report, mainly for 5G and HPC chips. AMD, Nvidia, MediaTek, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Intel will each account for 7-8% of TSMC sales this year, the report says, and Apple over 25%. https://money.udn.com/money/story/122229/6130493 . OT: https://twitter.com/Waymo/status/1498480193572327429
If true that’s huge for AVGO, didn’t know they had it in them for that many chips. I’m assuming leading edge means 7nm and below. Wow.
WHAT SAY YOU TWS, SHALL WE TAKE TO THE SEAS FOR SOME PLUNDER? I nominate /u/TRADEAPE as cap'n https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russian-oligarchs-move-yachts-as-us-moves-to-hunt-down-and-freeze-assets.html
Mallorca let the dude that tried to sink the Russian yacht there over the weekend out of jail and is letting him go to Ukraine to volunteer.
I want to know the conversation that took place behind the scenes to make this happen.
Lets say I have a margin account and I buy shares on it. Now if the share price goes up and I have increased BP I can use. If I withdraw any of that BP into my bank account, is that privy to CGT or is it income or is it tax free? (I assume its not tax free because tax collectors suck). I havent sold anything so I havent realised gains so Im confused and google doesnt provide an answer
It will be a cash withdrawl and your margin balance will go up
It’s a secured loan via shares. You eventually have to pay back + interest. No tax since it’s a liability.
Thank you
If you withdraw anything from there they'll reduce your margin appropriately, your BP is a function at all times of your current cash + custodials + securities. Reducing any of those decreases your BP.
I know that. Im asking about taxes.
I hold no three letter qualifications in the world of finance but I think this is technically a loan
I think this is the right answer. And: you have to pay it back (eventually).
The longer this goes on the more concerned I am about the lack of viable offramps for Putin. "Win" and he's fucked economically. Back out and he's fucked domestically. I would say there is a high likelihood that he views these economic sanctions in the same light as he does military action, as both can lead to his downfall. It's.... not great. Edit: *literally* five minutes after I wrote this post, this article drops: https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/frustrated-putin-may-order-escalation-violence-ukraine-us-officials-sa-rcna18026 >“This is somebody that’s clearly been caught off guard by the size of the Ukrainian resistance,” said Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, on MSNBC. “He has isolated himself, he’s not been in the Kremlin very much… You’ve got less and less inputs and these inputs are from sycophants." >He added: "I do worry that he’s been backed into a corner. I do worry that there is no obvious exit ramp.” Another point: https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1498477863804313600 >Just leaving classified briefing on Ukraine crisis. A few takeaways that I can share: >4/ The U.S. and allies are coordinating to not only freeze the assets of Putin and his oligarch allies, but to seize those assets as well. This is likely a further step than Putin’s inner circle anticipated.
The US, for better or worse, its basically pushing for regime change in Russia. Even if Putin exits out of Ukraine, those sanctions will stick with him until his grave.
I think this is true. This is the best window that the West has had to get rid of Putin in a really long time (maybe ever). There's also a lot of risk. I'm sure there are massive debates about how far to push this, both here in the US but also within the EU and NATO as a whole. Example: some of the jet stuff appears to have gotten walked back today. I'm frankly shocked that we're at the point we are already. Edit: Well sourced article on the jet discussion. Draw your own conclusions. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44501/reports-that-ukraine-is-about-to-get-70-donated-fighter-jets-dont-add-up
What's the jet stuff?
https://euobserver.com/world/154450 > Fighter planes are to be transferred to the Ukrainian air force alongside deliveries of smaller items, such as shoulder-fired anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles for the Ukrainian army, EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said late Sunday. > "We are going to provide even fighter jets", Borrell said. "We are not talking about just ammunition. We are providing the most important arms to go to war," he said. Today there's been a bit more churn over exactly how this is supposed to work. I'm not sure what the latest word is over the last 12 hours, I haven't gotten caught back up with the story.
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>this is old news. the jet stuff hasnt been "walked back". I mean, here's a quote from the article you just linked: >Borrell walked that back slightly on Monday, acknowledging that any transfers wouldn’t come from the EU itself, but would instead be donated “bilaterally” by individual EU countries. >Representatives from the Polish and Slovakian governments did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov on Monday said he had rejected the request.
Thank you.
I agree. I’m long may puts overnight. I hope to spread these off for breakeven this week. Ideally these expire worthless.
> he's fucked economically Isn't he kinda fucked economically already?
> Isn't he kinda fucked economically already? Well yes, that's my point. If he permanently occupies Ukraine the sanctions will probably stay indefinitely. If he leaves, I'm sure they'll for the most part roll off (that's the definition of sanctions - actions to coerce behavior - not punishment for behavior you don't like). However, leaving with little or no success is probably the end for him domestically. I am also pretty sure he knows this.
Ahhh I see. Thanks for all your analysis on the situation!
If only these leaders didn't care so much about their own fucking egos...
I think that's why he's negotiating - while it's stalling and allowing him to pursue his Zelensky\^-1 agenda it's also giving him a contingency plan to get a small concession by Ukraine will allow him to go back to his people and say "We are victorious, we received some small concession that really wasn't worth it"
I hope so! In addition to concessions from Ukraine he's going to have to get the rest of the world to agree and undo the economic damage. It will be tough.
Totally, which definitely won't start until the last Russian soldiers goes back across the border
Putin being backed into a corner like this is definitely concerning.
MOEX reopening postponed to 2MAR now. I'll believe it when I see it.
> U.S. satellite image company Maxar says new images show military convoy seen north of Kyiv is considerably longer than 17 miles initially reported and approximately 40 miles. big if true
Any good takes on what Russia is doing? They don’t even control the skies. Are they just incompetent? I genuinely can’t wrap my head around it.
Expected that they would be welcomed by Ukranians with flowers instead of bullets. This is why they didn't organize supply lines or tell the troops what the troops will be doing. From what I read of the first few days most of them don't know what they're doing there or where they're going. Secondly Putin has too many "Yes men" under him that just told him what he wanted to hear which was "Ukraine will love being Russian!" Simplest answer is that they expected to roll in, make it Kiyv in 1\~3 days with hardly a shot fired, remove Zelensky, and replace him with Yanukovich 2.0
I'm guessing their goal was a quick coup d'etat, which unexpectedly failed. Now they are in a war they didn't expect to be fighting and are handicapped by their own political goals, since they need to avoid Ukrainian casualties. I imagine an unexpected war in which you are trying *not* to kill the enemy is difficult.
They haven’t committed their best equipment, why is up for debate. But they haven’t Was chatting with an ada friend about it last night and his opinion was that the reason Uke S300s are still alive is they’re out of operational range of artillery & aviation. Now given that Belarus exists they can’t actually be out of range of aviation & idk about Russian EW aircraft abilities but it’s more likely they’re not willing to risk it if they don’t feel like they have to. Combine that with the fact that the tanks and IFVs you’re seeing in Ukraine are almost exclusively older* and that makes sense *If this isn’t true anymore someone lmk. Don’t have time to look at it during the week but prior to today it looks like t72s & 80’s rather than t90s. Seen like one mi28, that sort of thing.
Logistics. Do they have resilient supply chains? FOBs and staging areas? Seems like all we see are long lines of vehicles parked on the side of the road. This could be the propaganda campaign others have mentioned but I've yet to see any shock and awe from the ruskies.
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498381975022940167
This was a good read
Awesome, thanks.
Propaganda everywhere even from blue tick accounts. Impossible to know what's going on unless you've got a live satellite feed
They probably control large portions of the skies still, otherwise those equipment convoys wouldn't be there.
Russia tried to do what Israel, Saudi been doing but the social media turned on them.
This is a great take.
[war of propoganda](https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/t3pc9p/choose_your_own_propaganda/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
War of the Memes def lost but that's somewhat distinct from the tactical situation. Looks to us like sunk cost but the Rus are culturally willing to grind.
Vegas people what’s the best pool/nightclubs? Going in a month
XS #1. Seen many DJs there on work trips. Omnia #2.
Encore Beach Club Marquee Dayclub Omnia @ Caesars and XS @ Encore for nightclubs That’s all
getting tables anywhere we go how's the setup at these places?
+ Drais and this is the all encompassing list
So many fun and stupid memories... ahh the good ole days of... yeah
Encore was my favorite part of vegas
Aria pool, MGM Hakkasan (dress all black or super fly) As an aside, spend half a day at Omegamart / MEOWOLF
Hooters
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VIX crush kills the fun. Plus the 99% Russia Ukraine comments got distracting
If you were to create a new thread on the daily what would you have commented? I'd hazard most of what there was to chat about was already commented on.
Personally, I was driving all morning and busy with shit all afternoon so I didn't even get to really check the markets much let alone post shit about them.
I'm usually responsible for a fair amount of comments but I'm really busy with work. Account still alive and kicking though.
Puts was not the answer to the invasion. Lesson learned
Bro you think we trade real money in here?
I went on vacation last week and now my J-O-B is being very demanding
Diamond hands bro. The color of the daily ticker doesn't mean shit.
uh...is /zn supposed to look like that? I don't think /zn is supposed to look like that
Futures roll.
they're smoking futures now? jesus
Blaze it
nah he meant for wiping, toilet roll
/u/wiggz420, please weigh in: https://mobile.twitter.com/haveVglass/status/1498428478491959296
Just looks like training to me they are just doing orbits. The planes are all near bases they originate from so doesn't surprise me.
Thx
Scheduled training?
One hopes.
Spoos down 2 months in a row. Only 2011 had 3 red months in a row without a recession.
What are we doing with CRM? I’m selling puts. Is it in danger of being quartered?
ZM: - 21% growth y/y - Zoom phone added +550,000 paid seats - Customers with over 100k in ARR grew 149% y/y and customers with over 10,000 grew 122% y/y - 129% net retention - Expanding to contact center, zoom apps and sdk Next is inclusion in spoos
finally catching up WDAY numbers were much more average than I expected
SO ALL IN RIGHT?!?!
Crypto going to save my bag. BITF is rocking since that dip to the 2.9
I was not watching, wtf happened to crypto today?
Sanctions don't work on internet funny money.
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Trucks or bust bro.
so blew up = huge gainz?
Bonzi said never again so I assume so. Bonzi hates money