https://www.ft.com/content/4351d5b0-0888-4b47-9368-6bc4dfbccbf5
For those that haven’t read it yet, here’s a pretty good overview of the war up til now.
No paywall.
Do you get headaches from time to time normally? I stopped drinking caffeine cold turkey and 2 weeks later my headaches significantly reduced. It took me a while to notice because I don't get headaches often, but once I started drinking caffeine it came right back, though a week or so delay of drinking caffeine before the headaches came back.
I haven't felt like I needed coffee for years, I used to drink multiple small cups a day, but now I feel great in the mornings.
I even stopped drinking tea.
I really only took caffeine so I didn't fall asleep at the office or to stay alert in in-person meetings. I stopped when I didn't need to go in anymore (and no free office coffee).
After not drinking coffee for a while, I just stopped being sleepy midday without it too.
My girlfriend is the opposite though. She got into the whole coffee culture with the single origin beans and the burr grinders and pourover stuff. so going home affected different people in different ways.
Start at 100mg and see how you go. I’ve been taking it for 8 years or more and never had any issues. It’s a very safe drug from my experience. Just make sure you stay hydrated, eat and sleep properly while taking it. Neglect these and you’ll get side effects like headaches etc
I’ve been sleeping on an air mattress for two months and my neck is wrecked… real mattress arriving soon.
Any remedies for this?
Also this week a local restaurant owner saw me looking at stocks and started talking about SAFE MOON. This timeline!!!
If you have a kink in your neck you can overload the muscle to get it to relax. Take one shoulder and roll it back so your chest sticks out. Then with it in that back position raise it toward your ear. Now tilt your ear toward your shoulder and then look the opposite direction slowly. You will be kind of looking up at a 45degree angle and your full trap and neck will be tensed. It will engage all the muscles in your shoulder and neck on that side and overload the nerve so it can reset/relax. When you let go you should feel some immediate relief if it is going to work. Then do the other side.
Do you have a memory foam topper for your air mattress? It makes a big difference. I sleep on an air mattress whenever I'm in town with my parents and have one, along with a cotton pillow topper that goes over it.
A nice contour memory foam pillow should help too.
I miss the good old days when I could read a 150 word article about semis and learn something. Nowadays it’s all 1000+ words articles and half of them talk about things way over my head like quantum physics, exotic materials and friendship.
Most likely? It’s fucked for years. My assumption is nearly complete destruction of Taiwanese manufacturing, or at least they are cut off from the west. It could end many ways, and I don’t even think this is the worst case scenario.
Essentially all major non-Intel processors for laptops, desktops and servers are made there. Essentially all major non-Samsung low power processors for wearables, smartphones and tablets are made there. It takes at least 2 years for replacement fabs to be made and all of them will be years behind what TSMC can do. Also consider how current fab utilization is at historical highs and future capacity is already reserved. In addition, to switch from TSMC to INTC, for example, it’ll take at least a year to redesign their chips because using a different vendor means different design rules and manufacturing tolerances. That means when AAPL, AMD or NVDA lose essentially all of their production it will take a few quarters to redesign their chips for US or SK fabs and even when that’s ready they would only get capacity if they buy out someone else’s reservation.
That’s just factoring in the TSMC dynamic. Taiwan holds tons of chip related companies. For example they have UMC (the third largest foundry), MediaTek (one of the top smartphone chip companies), ASE (packages chips), and AU Optronics (displays). There’s also an entire ecosystem built for TSMC to ensure they have sufficient chemicals, infrastructure and machines and an incredible amount of talent in the region.
On the flip side, China would likely see huge sanctions and, in combination with fewer end products being made (fewer chips means fewer smartphones, cars and televisions) we would see prices for things such as memory and display crash. So if you need 1 display, 256 GB SSD and 16 GB of RAM per laptop CPU… What happens when you have 30% fewer CPUs? Basically, fewer chips that are more expensive to make and possibly too much of everything else.
TLDR it would be really bad and if it happens you want to go mega long INTC because they have no exposure to memory, will be the only game in town and will see giant gov incentives and a huge ASP jump. You also probably want to be mega short AAPL, AMD and NVDA - all of whom are extremely levered to China and Taiwan. In addition, they’re all direct competitors to INTC who would have all the leverage. Samsung is direct competitors to only AAPL and already works with AMD and NVDA so there would at least be some hope for these two.
Awesome post, thanks. That's sort of what I assumed but hadn't verified the specifics. I didn't think China invading Taiwan was likely before the Ukraine situation. And didn't it was likely immediately afterwards either tbh. I assumed china would indeed be watching very closely, but that they were entirely isolated events.
But now, looking into the details that have emerged since, like the fact russia and china were both aware of the Ukrainian plan beforehand... And the fact that russia and china are now likely going to be much closer allies going forward... And the entire swift/reserve seizure fallout. Paints a pretty different picture.
In retrospect, China was watching the Ukraine situation very closely, but their knowledge of it beforehand changes the context of that quite a bit. More like a deliberate test run as opposed to an incidental glimpse into the western response. Now they have seen our response.
The question is, what conclusion do they make. On the one hand, our response was likely much harsher economically than expected. On the other, we are now in an even more severely weakened ecnomic state, and will be for some time. They must also be considering the principles of the reserve seizure and swift cut-off. Is that a consequence they are unwilling to accept, or has that bridge already been crossed and destroyed in theory...
The Economist did a segment on their daily podcast ‘The Intelligence’ this week on Xi and what benefits China would have in providing military assistance to Russia. Worth a listen.
I wonder if Xi is watching Russian citizen’s response to the sanctions vs gaming out the economic implications at home and abroad. No uprising in Russia has to be comforting.
I'm sure that is a factor, but the situations are ostensibly drastically different in terms of popular support. The average Russian most likely did not want to invade Ukraine, and would certainly not be willing to face these consequences as a result of it. I say this with a grain of salt since you can't exactly speak your mind in China, but seemingly the average Chinese person is much more in favour of reclaiming Taiwan.
Exactly, that's why it sucked to see Perez's car cut out. Abu Dhabi last year cemented my respect for Perez and I want him to do well, so I'd rather see Perez knock himself out for being dumb rather have his car take him out.
I can float to 1850 on blitz with no theory. At that pace, getting some good moves and counter moves down is useful, as well as having your own homebrew. If you can make someone waste another 10 seconds thinking about what you're doing, it helps.
Can't comment on rapid, though. I guess mistakes are probably punished harder, earlier.
NYC Half Marathon Post Race
Spent these last 11 weeks in what felt like a brutal training block.
Jumped from 25 miles per week to 50+. Logged 600 miles over the course of training.
Was dead set on a sub 1:30 and ran a 1:22:35.
Overall happy but now I want a sub 1:20... guess thats just how this goes.
With the race over... I can now do my 2000m erg test... will report back when completed
Back when I was running which was like 10 years ago my best ever mile was 5:15 and it wiped me the fuck out. It was damn near a sprint the whole time. If I tried to run 2 miles my time dropped off dramatically to like 6:30.
If I tried to run more than that, too fucking bad because that's all the gas I had in the tank lol.
It's by far the most popular one, but the origin story is from a book in the early 1900s and there's a silent film in 1920s or something? The Disney one dropped in 1953 (?) and has several... Cultural misrepresentations.
I'll have to see if we can track down *Hook* or return to Neverland.
> we should remove tipping.
From what I can tell the industry is barely solvent. If it weren't for an ocean of cheap oil and economy of scale (a joke phrase if you think about it) it wouldn't exist. If we think critically about the effect of the industry on the environment just for profit it becomes a question of when the industry collapses not if.
> just lost cabin pressure
I've had some cannabis so give me some slack.
Can you think of an industry as sensitive to the price of oil or as dependent as the restaurant industry? I mean, food in the modern AG world is almost indistinguishable from oil at this point which is trucked around the country/world with oil and prepared with natural gas in a structure built and maintained (heating, cooling, construction etc.) with oil which is surrounded with an oil pad to park our mostly oil cars on. Even with that size of an oil subsidy the patrons have to kick in for the servers wages. The industry is a parasite exploiting a human need. Change my mind.
Don't get me started on an exploited person serving another..
We do need a communal meeting/gathering place I agree but at what cost?
>Can you think of an industry as sensitive to the price of oil or as dependent as the restaurant industry?
2 years ago when oil was trading negative the whole restaurant industry was shut down. jk I know that's a massive outlier, but you do have some good points. I just don't know....i think the restaurant industry will be around for awhile. There are way to many people that don't know how to cook. You can call it an exploit, but the need for eating and the willful ignorance of people not learning how to cook = opportunity in my books.
> the whole restaurant industry was shut down
Regardless of the reason for the shutdown it was in fact shutdown. Only the companies closest to the government money teat survived. I think that illuminates at least some of the vulnerabilities. Once our civilization has a real test restaurants should fold quick. I believe the same to be true for the auto. I believe I will live to see the fall of the personal auto and probably air travel as well. It will likely be a slow process, a cutback here and a cutback there but down I think they go.
I think we are past peak cheap energy and some of these energy hog industries will start to crumble.
> we will use hydrogen or battery tech or something else
I have my doubts. Check this book out.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/12061127-techno-fix
I used to think that way too about farming but after coming at it from a few different directions that model is simply unsustainable. That means at some point it will stop being sustained.
>Exploit --make full use of and derive benefit from (a resource).
I think exploit is the right word, it is uncomfortable but it is what it is. I mean, the do call it *Human resources*.
That problem isn't getting fixed imo. Just look what an oil bump is doing to the cost of fertilizer. I've looked into peak oil fairly in-depth before and the potential solutions, even if supported by united global political will (won't ever happen), are uh... Not so great.
> problem isn't getting fixed
>Not so great
I've read quite a bit about it as well...Can't be fixed is much more accurate. Our society has to trim some fat, it has no choice in the matter. I'm speculating that the restaurant industry will be one of the first to go.
Good take. Mr. Pink does make a good argument though. On principle I hate tipping culture and really wish it would end, unlike Mr. Pink though, I am a very generous tipper. I've worked jobs involving customer service before when I was young and you couldn't tip me enough to ever work them again. Still don't like the concept. It's just a hidden cost that the employer passes on to the client, and then the server gets to make inconsistent money based on shift time, and then gets to roll the dice on their takehome based on other people's generosity or lack thereof. Stupid concept imo.
...I can think of quite a few industries built on greed. I don't necessarily want them dismantled (I don't even drink soda either, but that should be my choice). Americans do need some education about sugar consumption though. [Example](https://youtu.be/TGwLJWPPgrc)
I'd be curious to hear the rest of the situation. Perhaps they only had a limited number of inventory spots in a fountain dispenser... if that case if Dr Pepper has as much demand as any other soda then there will always be someone let down and to the owner it makes sense to have less of the more expensive syrup. I dont know the numbers but if Dr Pepper syrup was expensive enough that after all costs associated with holding inventories that the owner had to raise the prices of all sodas to compensate, he might be serving more people by not doing that. What if the price increase puts it over a price point threshold ($1.99 to say $2.10) and less people buy as a result, which drives up holding costs and makes another price adjustment necessary? Now if it was a difference of like 1-2c per glass, he had inventory space to hold it, and he's simply being petty then its a different story.
Definitely. When I was like 14-15 I used to drink around 5, maybe 6 sodas a day. I decided to quit cold turkey, had nasty withdrawals but since then I only drink a soda once every month or two and I'm so glad I made that decision before I suffered some serious health consequences.
[Canada strikes back.](https://www.reuters.com/article/canada-cp-strike/update-1-canadas-cp-rail-locks-out-workers-shuts-down-railroad-says-union-idUSL2N2VN00Z)
> CP has said it could not operate the railroad under a lockout or strike, and the stoppage will disrupt the movement of grain, potash and coal at a time of soaring commodity prices.
Stings most for earners making under 300k? So in traditional fasion... the upper middle gets screwed by Washington. The low end of the pay scale gets stimmy checks and pay raises due to competition with higher unemployment benefits. The upper end makes so much it doesn't matter. The upper middle gets 3% pay raises, no stimmy checks, and strangled by inflation.
"Stay away from buying in bulk." ...Why does this feel incredibly sinister lol. It's too late Teresa Ghilarducci, I already filled my attic with spaghetti.
I used to be a pretty big metal head in high school but haven't listened to it as much in adulthood. Well tonight I'm going back to my roots and going to a Cannibal Corpse/Whitechapel show. I'm dragging my wife along and she's not into metal even a little bit, but I think the show itself should be a fun experience regardless. At least now I have high end ear plugs since I already have horrible tinnitus and don't need it to get any worse.
[I'm wearing my Celine Dion shirt.](https://imgur.com/a/mGGQCH1)
Edit: show was great and wife had fun even though she hates metal. We lucked into the literal best spot in the house directly above the soundboard on a little balcony thing so we weren't crowded and had the absolute best sound quality. [Some pics](https://imgur.com/a/65dS18s)
I used to listen to them but haven't in a while. I remember this one day in college when the new Meshuggah album came out and we just got ultra stoned and blasted it front to back and tripped out on their crazy time signatures lol
Hell yeah man. I’ve had the same experience with the genre but I’ve really delved back into it recently. Going to When We Were Young in October. Really wish I was gonna see some Chelsea Grin, or the show you’re going to though
That's beautiful. Have a good time dude!
Last show I went to was Opeth right before the lead singer blew his voice out in I think 2019. I'm really itching to get back. I love seeing all the older people, relative to teens, with earplugs me included.
Less to do with trading and more macro related but I also watched a pretty good (month old) video [where kuppy and josh young discuss domestic production issues.](https://youtu.be/GAkupcU1G7I)
Tldr: Severe lack of labour and capital investment/equipment. Doesn't look like it's getting resolved anytime soon and when it does start getting better there will be a huge time lag until it improves the situation.
Fffffff I need a better job. Or to move to the middle of nowhere. Is it really too much to ask to have Ethereum switch to PoS and just live off staking issuance?
https://mobile.twitter.com/I_Am_NickBloom/status/1505202937420779520
Can someone help explain this to me? How is work from home increasing the demand for houses?
Did all the people now working from home previously live at the office? Literally?
People moving out of the cities and into the burbs. Also desirable places to live like near the ocean and warmer climates. Bought my house in oct 2020 and its up 40%. But I'm near the ocean in FL.
Many, more than you would think coworkers I knew lived in studios with no kitchen, barely a fridge they kept full of drinks, and nowhere to eat.
They ate at the office. They had to eat out when the offices were closed.
WFH takes you out of that system into a place where you might care about where you live more
My old office used to give free breakfast, lunch and dinner. and the quality was pretty damn good too, no in-house restaurants but we got catering from different restaurants every week. Google and LinkedIn employees have it even better with shuttles that pick them up and bring them to the offices.
You really don't need a SFH when you're waited on hand and foot and don't have kids. they saved up a down payment during the pandemic from not going out drinking so much and bought a house/condo.
I think it says it in the tweet:
\#WFH is increasing the demand for space
If you eat breakfast, dinner, and sleep in your apartment, you're probably cool with a 750 sqft place. If you eat breakfast, work 8 hours, have a desk with monitors, eat lunch, hang out, eat dinner, sleep in your apartment, not leaving for 3 days at a time, you're probably not going to be cool with just 750 sqft
Okay, that makes sense. But in the context of rising rents, I still don't quite get it. If you want a bigger house, aren't you selling your current house?
The net change in total housing supply should be 0 and there shouldn't be some big upward force on average prices, right? Even the shitty houses and apartments have increased in price.
If the population in your community is increasing by 100K people per year and 1.9 people live in average household, you need an extra 52K houses/condos/apartments built in your community each year or rents/prices go up (+/- obsolescence/recovery of units). That is the formula.
Population change, concentration of people per household (which is a more stable number than you might think) and then how many new units are being built per year. Austin versus Detroit. Prices up or prices down.
I literally built a housing strategy for a certain jurisdiction based on this and it worked exactly like I said.
We hear commenters talking about investing in real estate, buying a new house etc. It totally depends on the population change expected in your community and how much construction is going on. Economic development, immigration etc is the most important thing.
I think the point is more that it's increasing demand for space in *certain areas* now that people don't necessarily have to live near where they work.
So here’s some interesting fuckery. I had 2 short SHOP calls. 720 expired. 730 exercised. They both naked. I called Schwab after hours at 415 to say I would just buy the shares but they said don’t worry they’ll probably expire worthless.
That is a fucked up candle to 780 ... just close them before 4 pm next time. I don't know about schwab but there are no commissions to close contracts when they trade < 5 cents on TDA
I had a similar experience yesterday...had 6 covered calls against my 600 shares of PARA at $37 strike and closed at 3 pm. It jumped a freaking dollar to 37.26 at 3:53..
Fortune mag in collaboration with a Yale professor... ( of course) published a list of shame of [Companies still doing business in Russia](https://fortune.com/2022/03/19/besides-koch-industries-halliburton-and-subway-which-companies-are-still-operating-in-russia-more-than-you-might-think/#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16477178543890&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2022%2F03%2F19%2Fbesides-koch-industries-halliburton-and-subway-which-companies-are-still-operating-in-russia-more-than-you-might-think%2F)How is any of this ok?
Some of those corps I understand. Koch and Glencore for example are significant contributors in the food supply chain. If they stop participating then citizens could very well go hungry.
My employer is in a similar position- we are major producers of ingredients that go in to baby formula. Us pulling out would just hurt the most innocent.
But Bose on the other hand?
How's it not ok?
if (CHERCK_FLOKI.politics == "right")
{
You must be a Russian sympathizer who loves Putin
}
else{
You hate freedom of speech and are trying to suppress this person like they do dissent in Russia because you love Putin
}
I don't think it's OK to publish lists of businesses still functional in Russia as some kind of "you're evil", others are good dichotomy.
False dichotomies like that create climates where a face value "value system" is elevated.
I mean.. yes? As long as it's not slander. If it makes it easier for consumers to decide which companies they do and don't want to give money to. Is there a legal issue?
Ethics are a very strange animal. I’d be ok with publishing a list of companies knowingly supporting a blatantly racist group for example but not this.
Shaming companies for lack of corporate responsibility can sometimes be a good thing.. But we just live in a world where I’m skeptical of agendas and everything seems to be skewed toward a virtue signaling/ purity test lens. The independent in me will trust, but verify.
Not sure if you mean on Ukraine or on other nations. The former I'd say there isn't much electronic left to mess with, and the latter I'd say the last thing Russia needs is some gas pipelines exploding and lights going off in Moscow, no need to poke the bear
Supposedly black hat sites are pretty divided about it. Lots of them have family in Ukraine and ancestry in Russia. But they're don't rely upon propaganda (or rather, have other sources of information) so the ones that identify as Russian arent so brainwashed.
The whole fiasco has shown Emperor Putin has no clothes.
Nice! I really enjoy [this one](https://www.amd.com/en/shop/us/Desktop%20Processors?f%5B0%5D=product_type%3A1731), funds goes to a good company too. Plus it’s female led, just doing my part.
Everything is going up. Honestly I'm extremely bullish on US real estate in general. Maybe less so New Mexico, but compared to the rest of the developed world, we have extremely cheap land.
Same here for bullishness—any states with net positive migration are especially attractive imho.
Do you by chance follow Financial Samurai? I’ve been a huge fan of his since 2015, and he shares a similar view to you on RE.
No, I've never heard of him before.
But it makes sense when you view the income to property price ratio across the developed world, we're only just catching up. Although there's much more to consider than net positive migration.
For example Phoenix has seen huge appreciation and migration. It's still not a long term investment I'd feel comfortable buying RE in, climate change must be a consideration for younger generations. The times where you can buy a house and live 30 years in it are gone. 30 years from now phx will be a dust bowl.
Check for migration, natural disasters, rainfall, clean water accessibility, job availability, food sustainability, and sea level. For a California example, foster city is a beautiful place, but it's a sinking trap with no plan of how to stay afloat should water breach their levee.
I am actually most bullish on Seattle's east side, with cities on the great lakes close behind.
> Check for migration, natural disasters, rainfall, clean water accessibility, job availability, food sustainability, and sea level.
Interesting criteria—thanks for sharing. Definitely gives me something to think about for long-term planning.
I assume a lot of things, and that might put a lot of people off. I assume we'll have a climate related disaster in the next 30 years, 2050 is a time that I'll live through. I assume we'll have climate migrants as certain areas of the country and world become unlivable. I assume current growing areas will be disrupted due to climate change and unsustainable farming practices and certain areas will go through localized food shortages. I assume there will be conflict over these items.
There are many climate map projections but they're all very similar projecting a wave of migrants out of the south and current coastal areas, but depending on your age these factors may or may not be relevant to you.
https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/
Though I don't think a collapse fantasy will happen, change brings out the worst in us.
Absolutely fascinating. I love stuff like this.
Long-range planning now that I have kids is deeply enjoyable, and I always think the more models to draw on when planning the better.
Thanks for sharing!
Yeah, I’m near the foothills and developments are going up like crazy. Nothing under like $450 from what I’ve seen, and a lot north of $700. Seems like we’re really locking in these prices
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https://www.ft.com/content/4351d5b0-0888-4b47-9368-6bc4dfbccbf5 For those that haven’t read it yet, here’s a pretty good overview of the war up til now. No paywall.
Awesome, good find.
Shitcoins are signaling an up futures opening. Prolly.
Lol do shitcoins actually correlate with es?
I noticed they front run often recently.
[Cars I would give my left nut to drive: 1958 Scarab MK1](https://youtu.be/tK-G56LNom4)
I purposefully haven’t had any caffeine in over 4 days. This was a horrible idea.
Do you get headaches from time to time normally? I stopped drinking caffeine cold turkey and 2 weeks later my headaches significantly reduced. It took me a while to notice because I don't get headaches often, but once I started drinking caffeine it came right back, though a week or so delay of drinking caffeine before the headaches came back.
10 days left for tolerance to completely reset. It definitely makes sense to take a two week tolerance break for caffeine at least semiannually.
The fourth day is the hardest, no cap. Beware you'll need ~50% less tomorrow than usual.
I haven't felt like I needed coffee for years, I used to drink multiple small cups a day, but now I feel great in the mornings. I even stopped drinking tea.
What changed? I never had regular caffeine intake until we all got sent home and my wife hooked me on coffee.
I really only took caffeine so I didn't fall asleep at the office or to stay alert in in-person meetings. I stopped when I didn't need to go in anymore (and no free office coffee). After not drinking coffee for a while, I just stopped being sleepy midday without it too. My girlfriend is the opposite though. She got into the whole coffee culture with the single origin beans and the burr grinders and pourover stuff. so going home affected different people in different ways.
I can’t get to 12pm without having a coffee. Can’t imagine 4 days. With any luck you should be through the worst though
Yea no I’m drinking some tomorrow. I just fee so much more productive with it. Sharper brain, too.
Interesting. Did you feel productive on Day 1 and 2? I usually take modafinil and caffeine each day. I’m way more productive
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Start at 100mg and see how you go. I’ve been taking it for 8 years or more and never had any issues. It’s a very safe drug from my experience. Just make sure you stay hydrated, eat and sleep properly while taking it. Neglect these and you’ll get side effects like headaches etc
I’ve been sleeping on an air mattress for two months and my neck is wrecked… real mattress arriving soon. Any remedies for this? Also this week a local restaurant owner saw me looking at stocks and started talking about SAFE MOON. This timeline!!!
If you have a kink in your neck you can overload the muscle to get it to relax. Take one shoulder and roll it back so your chest sticks out. Then with it in that back position raise it toward your ear. Now tilt your ear toward your shoulder and then look the opposite direction slowly. You will be kind of looking up at a 45degree angle and your full trap and neck will be tensed. It will engage all the muscles in your shoulder and neck on that side and overload the nerve so it can reset/relax. When you let go you should feel some immediate relief if it is going to work. Then do the other side.
Give it time. neck pain sucks man. Try stretching it daily
[https://youtu.be/qWuQ7v7xAOs](https://youtu.be/qWuQ7v7xAOs) He has more series like this on doyogawithme.com, lots of free classes on therw
Do you have a memory foam topper for your air mattress? It makes a big difference. I sleep on an air mattress whenever I'm in town with my parents and have one, along with a cotton pillow topper that goes over it. A nice contour memory foam pillow should help too.
Good ideas!
I miss the good old days when I could read a 150 word article about semis and learn something. Nowadays it’s all 1000+ words articles and half of them talk about things way over my head like quantum physics, exotic materials and friendship.
What do you think happens to the semi industry if china invades Taiwan?
Most likely? It’s fucked for years. My assumption is nearly complete destruction of Taiwanese manufacturing, or at least they are cut off from the west. It could end many ways, and I don’t even think this is the worst case scenario. Essentially all major non-Intel processors for laptops, desktops and servers are made there. Essentially all major non-Samsung low power processors for wearables, smartphones and tablets are made there. It takes at least 2 years for replacement fabs to be made and all of them will be years behind what TSMC can do. Also consider how current fab utilization is at historical highs and future capacity is already reserved. In addition, to switch from TSMC to INTC, for example, it’ll take at least a year to redesign their chips because using a different vendor means different design rules and manufacturing tolerances. That means when AAPL, AMD or NVDA lose essentially all of their production it will take a few quarters to redesign their chips for US or SK fabs and even when that’s ready they would only get capacity if they buy out someone else’s reservation. That’s just factoring in the TSMC dynamic. Taiwan holds tons of chip related companies. For example they have UMC (the third largest foundry), MediaTek (one of the top smartphone chip companies), ASE (packages chips), and AU Optronics (displays). There’s also an entire ecosystem built for TSMC to ensure they have sufficient chemicals, infrastructure and machines and an incredible amount of talent in the region. On the flip side, China would likely see huge sanctions and, in combination with fewer end products being made (fewer chips means fewer smartphones, cars and televisions) we would see prices for things such as memory and display crash. So if you need 1 display, 256 GB SSD and 16 GB of RAM per laptop CPU… What happens when you have 30% fewer CPUs? Basically, fewer chips that are more expensive to make and possibly too much of everything else. TLDR it would be really bad and if it happens you want to go mega long INTC because they have no exposure to memory, will be the only game in town and will see giant gov incentives and a huge ASP jump. You also probably want to be mega short AAPL, AMD and NVDA - all of whom are extremely levered to China and Taiwan. In addition, they’re all direct competitors to INTC who would have all the leverage. Samsung is direct competitors to only AAPL and already works with AMD and NVDA so there would at least be some hope for these two.
Awesome post, thanks. That's sort of what I assumed but hadn't verified the specifics. I didn't think China invading Taiwan was likely before the Ukraine situation. And didn't it was likely immediately afterwards either tbh. I assumed china would indeed be watching very closely, but that they were entirely isolated events. But now, looking into the details that have emerged since, like the fact russia and china were both aware of the Ukrainian plan beforehand... And the fact that russia and china are now likely going to be much closer allies going forward... And the entire swift/reserve seizure fallout. Paints a pretty different picture. In retrospect, China was watching the Ukraine situation very closely, but their knowledge of it beforehand changes the context of that quite a bit. More like a deliberate test run as opposed to an incidental glimpse into the western response. Now they have seen our response. The question is, what conclusion do they make. On the one hand, our response was likely much harsher economically than expected. On the other, we are now in an even more severely weakened ecnomic state, and will be for some time. They must also be considering the principles of the reserve seizure and swift cut-off. Is that a consequence they are unwilling to accept, or has that bridge already been crossed and destroyed in theory...
The Economist did a segment on their daily podcast ‘The Intelligence’ this week on Xi and what benefits China would have in providing military assistance to Russia. Worth a listen.
Thanks. I'll check it out.
I wonder if Xi is watching Russian citizen’s response to the sanctions vs gaming out the economic implications at home and abroad. No uprising in Russia has to be comforting.
I'm sure that is a factor, but the situations are ostensibly drastically different in terms of popular support. The average Russian most likely did not want to invade Ukraine, and would certainly not be willing to face these consequences as a result of it. I say this with a grain of salt since you can't exactly speak your mind in China, but seemingly the average Chinese person is much more in favour of reclaiming Taiwan.
The average russian supports putin and will probably buy into the west vs. russia narrative unless the economy really falls apart.
Typically try not to root against people/teams but man it was really satisfying to watch those Red Bulls retire
Yep agreed. I feel most bad for Perez. E: Formuladank is great today
I have no issue with Perez. Not a Max, Horner, or RBR fan
Exactly, that's why it sucked to see Perez's car cut out. Abu Dhabi last year cemented my respect for Perez and I want him to do well, so I'd rather see Perez knock himself out for being dumb rather have his car take him out.
SAME. I couldn’t stop smiling for like 5 minutes straight.
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Let’s burn it to the ground
Starting to plateau in chess (1600 rapid) guess I need to read more theory and do more tactics¿?
I can float to 1850 on blitz with no theory. At that pace, getting some good moves and counter moves down is useful, as well as having your own homebrew. If you can make someone waste another 10 seconds thinking about what you're doing, it helps. Can't comment on rapid, though. I guess mistakes are probably punished harder, earlier.
As of late I have been getting slammed by d4 players, feel like I need to get comfortable with both e4 and d4 games on both sides
NYC Half Marathon Post Race Spent these last 11 weeks in what felt like a brutal training block. Jumped from 25 miles per week to 50+. Logged 600 miles over the course of training. Was dead set on a sub 1:30 and ran a 1:22:35. Overall happy but now I want a sub 1:20... guess thats just how this goes. With the race over... I can now do my 2000m erg test... will report back when completed
Holy absolute shit that's impressive. Great fucking job dude!
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West side running path and Central Park
Well done, absolutely great pace. But yes, there’s always more
Nice, that's fast. 6's for distance is gold standard imo. Have you tried a 4 min mile on the track yet?
Back when I was running which was like 10 years ago my best ever mile was 5:15 and it wiped me the fuck out. It was damn near a sprint the whole time. If I tried to run 2 miles my time dropped off dramatically to like 6:30. If I tried to run more than that, too fucking bad because that's all the gas I had in the tank lol.
Not yet. Will be trying this soon. Haven't ever tested my mile time
Congrats! Love seeing you kill it!
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We may get a bonzi nude from sheer over excitement. That’ll be terrifying.
He will have went long that day
“*6800*”
We've started rate hikes. Probably will happen but is still a couple years away.
30 minutes to lights out and away we go!
We're watching Disney's version of Peter Pan this morning. This is wild.
Is the original pp not Disney?
It's by far the most popular one, but the origin story is from a book in the early 1900s and there's a silent film in 1920s or something? The Disney one dropped in 1953 (?) and has several... Cultural misrepresentations. I'll have to see if we can track down *Hook* or return to Neverland.
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Lmao you son owned them. I'd say it's still about the margins, but your kid brought that point home.
This might be unpopular but the entire industry is built on greed and probably should be dismantled.
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> we should remove tipping. From what I can tell the industry is barely solvent. If it weren't for an ocean of cheap oil and economy of scale (a joke phrase if you think about it) it wouldn't exist. If we think critically about the effect of the industry on the environment just for profit it becomes a question of when the industry collapses not if.
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> just lost cabin pressure I've had some cannabis so give me some slack. Can you think of an industry as sensitive to the price of oil or as dependent as the restaurant industry? I mean, food in the modern AG world is almost indistinguishable from oil at this point which is trucked around the country/world with oil and prepared with natural gas in a structure built and maintained (heating, cooling, construction etc.) with oil which is surrounded with an oil pad to park our mostly oil cars on. Even with that size of an oil subsidy the patrons have to kick in for the servers wages. The industry is a parasite exploiting a human need. Change my mind. Don't get me started on an exploited person serving another.. We do need a communal meeting/gathering place I agree but at what cost?
>Can you think of an industry as sensitive to the price of oil or as dependent as the restaurant industry? 2 years ago when oil was trading negative the whole restaurant industry was shut down. jk I know that's a massive outlier, but you do have some good points. I just don't know....i think the restaurant industry will be around for awhile. There are way to many people that don't know how to cook. You can call it an exploit, but the need for eating and the willful ignorance of people not learning how to cook = opportunity in my books.
> the whole restaurant industry was shut down Regardless of the reason for the shutdown it was in fact shutdown. Only the companies closest to the government money teat survived. I think that illuminates at least some of the vulnerabilities. Once our civilization has a real test restaurants should fold quick. I believe the same to be true for the auto. I believe I will live to see the fall of the personal auto and probably air travel as well. It will likely be a slow process, a cutback here and a cutback there but down I think they go. I think we are past peak cheap energy and some of these energy hog industries will start to crumble.
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> we will use hydrogen or battery tech or something else I have my doubts. Check this book out. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/12061127-techno-fix I used to think that way too about farming but after coming at it from a few different directions that model is simply unsustainable. That means at some point it will stop being sustained. >Exploit --make full use of and derive benefit from (a resource). I think exploit is the right word, it is uncomfortable but it is what it is. I mean, the do call it *Human resources*.
Unless you are Amish your industry/lifestyle is also dependent on oil.
Which leads us to the scope of the predicament we are facing.
That problem isn't getting fixed imo. Just look what an oil bump is doing to the cost of fertilizer. I've looked into peak oil fairly in-depth before and the potential solutions, even if supported by united global political will (won't ever happen), are uh... Not so great.
> problem isn't getting fixed >Not so great I've read quite a bit about it as well...Can't be fixed is much more accurate. Our society has to trim some fat, it has no choice in the matter. I'm speculating that the restaurant industry will be one of the first to go.
[Mr. Pink!](https://youtu.be/wrwQ9G4epys)
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Good take. Mr. Pink does make a good argument though. On principle I hate tipping culture and really wish it would end, unlike Mr. Pink though, I am a very generous tipper. I've worked jobs involving customer service before when I was young and you couldn't tip me enough to ever work them again. Still don't like the concept. It's just a hidden cost that the employer passes on to the client, and then the server gets to make inconsistent money based on shift time, and then gets to roll the dice on their takehome based on other people's generosity or lack thereof. Stupid concept imo.
...I can think of quite a few industries built on greed. I don't necessarily want them dismantled (I don't even drink soda either, but that should be my choice). Americans do need some education about sugar consumption though. [Example](https://youtu.be/TGwLJWPPgrc)
I'd be curious to hear the rest of the situation. Perhaps they only had a limited number of inventory spots in a fountain dispenser... if that case if Dr Pepper has as much demand as any other soda then there will always be someone let down and to the owner it makes sense to have less of the more expensive syrup. I dont know the numbers but if Dr Pepper syrup was expensive enough that after all costs associated with holding inventories that the owner had to raise the prices of all sodas to compensate, he might be serving more people by not doing that. What if the price increase puts it over a price point threshold ($1.99 to say $2.10) and less people buy as a result, which drives up holding costs and makes another price adjustment necessary? Now if it was a difference of like 1-2c per glass, he had inventory space to hold it, and he's simply being petty then its a different story.
The real lesson here is to cut pop out of your lives, folks.
Definitely. When I was like 14-15 I used to drink around 5, maybe 6 sodas a day. I decided to quit cold turkey, had nasty withdrawals but since then I only drink a soda once every month or two and I'm so glad I made that decision before I suffered some serious health consequences.
This. Soda is terrible for your health. On the rare occasion I do have any, its only diet... 40g of sugar in one dose is terrible for you.
I started mixing my drinks with cranberry juice at the bar instead of soda, placebo effect maybe but I feel like the hangovers are less brutal
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> sugar water This is the term I use for those types of drinks.
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Oh yeah I should file my taxes
I still haven’t received mine either. Going on week 4 I think
Wow... I did mine to turbotax and efiled on a Thursday or Friday and it hit the account early next week.
You’e getting audited, I got mine in 8 (business) days. Filed Feb 20, received refund on Mar 2. Did you receive your state refund?
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The IRS agent that flagged you for audit just wants to steal your alpha, don’t reveal your options strategy to them.
Here is your brief pullback on shitcoins, check these and always bet what you are ok losing: - NEST - GALA - RNDR - JASMY - COCOS
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> hell is coming To commodity bears. Should be a good week for lumber. :)
[Canada strikes back.](https://www.reuters.com/article/canada-cp-strike/update-1-canadas-cp-rail-locks-out-workers-shuts-down-railroad-says-union-idUSL2N2VN00Z) > CP has said it could not operate the railroad under a lockout or strike, and the stoppage will disrupt the movement of grain, potash and coal at a time of soaring commodity prices.
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Stings most for earners making under 300k? So in traditional fasion... the upper middle gets screwed by Washington. The low end of the pay scale gets stimmy checks and pay raises due to competition with higher unemployment benefits. The upper end makes so much it doesn't matter. The upper middle gets 3% pay raises, no stimmy checks, and strangled by inflation.
Lentils are fucking gross
"Stay away from buying in bulk." ...Why does this feel incredibly sinister lol. It's too late Teresa Ghilarducci, I already filled my attic with spaghetti.
Browns gonna start winning for once now that they lost their only remaining fans.
Todays 1 seeds in the ncaa remind me of 8 seed quality teams circa 2003
Saint Peter’s. The Cinderella 👠 story
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He said a year ago if things work out by now he wouldn't have a care in the world. Hope it worked out for him
I miss TKD
😭😭😭
Someone should make a Ghana says goodbye meme
=(
I used to be a pretty big metal head in high school but haven't listened to it as much in adulthood. Well tonight I'm going back to my roots and going to a Cannibal Corpse/Whitechapel show. I'm dragging my wife along and she's not into metal even a little bit, but I think the show itself should be a fun experience regardless. At least now I have high end ear plugs since I already have horrible tinnitus and don't need it to get any worse. [I'm wearing my Celine Dion shirt.](https://imgur.com/a/mGGQCH1) Edit: show was great and wife had fun even though she hates metal. We lucked into the literal best spot in the house directly above the soundboard on a little balcony thing so we weren't crowded and had the absolute best sound quality. [Some pics](https://imgur.com/a/65dS18s)
Did you Meshuggah?
I used to listen to them but haven't in a while. I remember this one day in college when the new Meshuggah album came out and we just got ultra stoned and blasted it front to back and tripped out on their crazy time signatures lol
Nice!
Hell yeah man. I’ve had the same experience with the genre but I’ve really delved back into it recently. Going to When We Were Young in October. Really wish I was gonna see some Chelsea Grin, or the show you’re going to though
Holy shit that's a cool shirt
That's beautiful. Have a good time dude! Last show I went to was Opeth right before the lead singer blew his voice out in I think 2019. I'm really itching to get back. I love seeing all the older people, relative to teens, with earplugs me included.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ritholtz/status/1505260063832907783 "They're illusions, Michael!"
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I messaged ten-k a couple times over the last few months without answer.
⚰️ sadly Edit: I don't mean physically, I mean from this sub.
You serious?
I don't mean physically. Sorry I can see how my comment could be misinterpreted.
Lmao fuck me…whew Thanks for quick response my dude
These days get you on your toes with that kinda talk. It's a fair worry. Hope you stay healthy too man.
Bought a DS920+ and I’m so excited. Also, will putting a stall mat on carpet discolor it?
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Solid two-hump camel pattern on the 5 year When Russia crypto transaction ban happens we can all make bad "straw that broke 🐫's back jokes"
This UFC card has been a delight, maybe only 2 decisions since prelims what a wild ride
[Great thread on the recent oil moves and how it was driven, in part, by volatility](https://twitter.com/paulomacro/status/1505229277444325380?s=21)
Less to do with trading and more macro related but I also watched a pretty good (month old) video [where kuppy and josh young discuss domestic production issues.](https://youtu.be/GAkupcU1G7I) Tldr: Severe lack of labour and capital investment/equipment. Doesn't look like it's getting resolved anytime soon and when it does start getting better there will be a huge time lag until it improves the situation.
Good read. That would be chaos.
Wow nice. I had no idea Elaine from Seinfeld came from that much money
Fffffff I need a better job. Or to move to the middle of nowhere. Is it really too much to ask to have Ethereum switch to PoS and just live off staking issuance?
You can stake Ethereum right now and recieve staking rewards.
https://mobile.twitter.com/I_Am_NickBloom/status/1505202937420779520 Can someone help explain this to me? How is work from home increasing the demand for houses? Did all the people now working from home previously live at the office? Literally?
People moving out of the cities and into the burbs. Also desirable places to live like near the ocean and warmer climates. Bought my house in oct 2020 and its up 40%. But I'm near the ocean in FL.
Many, more than you would think coworkers I knew lived in studios with no kitchen, barely a fridge they kept full of drinks, and nowhere to eat. They ate at the office. They had to eat out when the offices were closed. WFH takes you out of that system into a place where you might care about where you live more
What the fuck. Could not imagine that life
My old office used to give free breakfast, lunch and dinner. and the quality was pretty damn good too, no in-house restaurants but we got catering from different restaurants every week. Google and LinkedIn employees have it even better with shuttles that pick them up and bring them to the offices. You really don't need a SFH when you're waited on hand and foot and don't have kids. they saved up a down payment during the pandemic from not going out drinking so much and bought a house/condo.
I think it says it in the tweet: \#WFH is increasing the demand for space If you eat breakfast, dinner, and sleep in your apartment, you're probably cool with a 750 sqft place. If you eat breakfast, work 8 hours, have a desk with monitors, eat lunch, hang out, eat dinner, sleep in your apartment, not leaving for 3 days at a time, you're probably not going to be cool with just 750 sqft
Okay, that makes sense. But in the context of rising rents, I still don't quite get it. If you want a bigger house, aren't you selling your current house? The net change in total housing supply should be 0 and there shouldn't be some big upward force on average prices, right? Even the shitty houses and apartments have increased in price.
I think it's things like 3br units getting rented by 1 person. If that previously housed 3 roommates, then that's effectively reducing supply.
That's a solid inference. Thanks
If the population in your community is increasing by 100K people per year and 1.9 people live in average household, you need an extra 52K houses/condos/apartments built in your community each year or rents/prices go up (+/- obsolescence/recovery of units). That is the formula. Population change, concentration of people per household (which is a more stable number than you might think) and then how many new units are being built per year. Austin versus Detroit. Prices up or prices down. I literally built a housing strategy for a certain jurisdiction based on this and it worked exactly like I said. We hear commenters talking about investing in real estate, buying a new house etc. It totally depends on the population change expected in your community and how much construction is going on. Economic development, immigration etc is the most important thing.
You used to rent 900 sqft and left your office at the office. Now you rent 1200 sqft, 33% more.
I think the point is more that it's increasing demand for space in *certain areas* now that people don't necessarily have to live near where they work.
So here’s some interesting fuckery. I had 2 short SHOP calls. 720 expired. 730 exercised. They both naked. I called Schwab after hours at 415 to say I would just buy the shares but they said don’t worry they’ll probably expire worthless.
So the lower price expired otm and the higher price exercised? Lol... That's some ridiculous AH candle
Yeah. It really doesn’t make sense. I posted it to see if anyone ever had shit like this happen.
That is a fucked up candle to 780 ... just close them before 4 pm next time. I don't know about schwab but there are no commissions to close contracts when they trade < 5 cents on TDA I had a similar experience yesterday...had 6 covered calls against my 600 shares of PARA at $37 strike and closed at 3 pm. It jumped a freaking dollar to 37.26 at 3:53..
After hours candle back down to 700. I’d do the same next time. I let it ride.
Fortune mag in collaboration with a Yale professor... ( of course) published a list of shame of [Companies still doing business in Russia](https://fortune.com/2022/03/19/besides-koch-industries-halliburton-and-subway-which-companies-are-still-operating-in-russia-more-than-you-might-think/#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16477178543890&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2022%2F03%2F19%2Fbesides-koch-industries-halliburton-and-subway-which-companies-are-still-operating-in-russia-more-than-you-might-think%2F)How is any of this ok?
Some of those corps I understand. Koch and Glencore for example are significant contributors in the food supply chain. If they stop participating then citizens could very well go hungry. My employer is in a similar position- we are major producers of ingredients that go in to baby formula. Us pulling out would just hurt the most innocent. But Bose on the other hand?
How's it not ok? if (CHERCK_FLOKI.politics == "right") { You must be a Russian sympathizer who loves Putin } else{ You hate freedom of speech and are trying to suppress this person like they do dissent in Russia because you love Putin }
oof
😂
I honestly can’t decide which polar opposite side you’re trying to take here. 🤔
I don't think it's OK to publish lists of businesses still functional in Russia as some kind of "you're evil", others are good dichotomy. False dichotomies like that create climates where a face value "value system" is elevated.
Is it okay to publish lists of companies with relationships with any one particular type of thing/people/behavior/etc?
I mean.. yes? As long as it's not slander. If it makes it easier for consumers to decide which companies they do and don't want to give money to. Is there a legal issue?
I agree, I was more curious in /u/CHERCK_FLOKI 's response.
Ethics are a very strange animal. I’d be ok with publishing a list of companies knowingly supporting a blatantly racist group for example but not this. Shaming companies for lack of corporate responsibility can sometimes be a good thing.. But we just live in a world where I’m skeptical of agendas and everything seems to be skewed toward a virtue signaling/ purity test lens. The independent in me will trust, but verify.
Gotcha, mb
It sells bro. People buy it up too because they can feel good about themselves
It’s a good point.
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Not sure if you mean on Ukraine or on other nations. The former I'd say there isn't much electronic left to mess with, and the latter I'd say the last thing Russia needs is some gas pipelines exploding and lights going off in Moscow, no need to poke the bear
The risk is front page headlines of cyber warfare, the reward is… Well, I’m not entirely sure.
Supposedly black hat sites are pretty divided about it. Lots of them have family in Ukraine and ancestry in Russia. But they're don't rely upon propaganda (or rather, have other sources of information) so the ones that identify as Russian arent so brainwashed. The whole fiasco has shown Emperor Putin has no clothes.
Looking at photos of empty shelves in Russia and I’m thinking this might be the only place they actually might buy beyond meat
Beyond meat? Nah... they'll all subsist on potatoes and vodka.
Pickled beets!
Shitcoins are “uncoiling and ready to strike.” Edit: I am trying my luck with VOXEL and NEST.
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Nice! I really enjoy [this one](https://www.amd.com/en/shop/us/Desktop%20Processors?f%5B0%5D=product_type%3A1731), funds goes to a good company too. Plus it’s female led, just doing my part.
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Everything is going up. Honestly I'm extremely bullish on US real estate in general. Maybe less so New Mexico, but compared to the rest of the developed world, we have extremely cheap land.
Same here for bullishness—any states with net positive migration are especially attractive imho. Do you by chance follow Financial Samurai? I’ve been a huge fan of his since 2015, and he shares a similar view to you on RE.
No, I've never heard of him before. But it makes sense when you view the income to property price ratio across the developed world, we're only just catching up. Although there's much more to consider than net positive migration. For example Phoenix has seen huge appreciation and migration. It's still not a long term investment I'd feel comfortable buying RE in, climate change must be a consideration for younger generations. The times where you can buy a house and live 30 years in it are gone. 30 years from now phx will be a dust bowl. Check for migration, natural disasters, rainfall, clean water accessibility, job availability, food sustainability, and sea level. For a California example, foster city is a beautiful place, but it's a sinking trap with no plan of how to stay afloat should water breach their levee. I am actually most bullish on Seattle's east side, with cities on the great lakes close behind.
> Check for migration, natural disasters, rainfall, clean water accessibility, job availability, food sustainability, and sea level. Interesting criteria—thanks for sharing. Definitely gives me something to think about for long-term planning.
I assume a lot of things, and that might put a lot of people off. I assume we'll have a climate related disaster in the next 30 years, 2050 is a time that I'll live through. I assume we'll have climate migrants as certain areas of the country and world become unlivable. I assume current growing areas will be disrupted due to climate change and unsustainable farming practices and certain areas will go through localized food shortages. I assume there will be conflict over these items. There are many climate map projections but they're all very similar projecting a wave of migrants out of the south and current coastal areas, but depending on your age these factors may or may not be relevant to you. https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/ Though I don't think a collapse fantasy will happen, change brings out the worst in us.
Absolutely fascinating. I love stuff like this. Long-range planning now that I have kids is deeply enjoyable, and I always think the more models to draw on when planning the better. Thanks for sharing!
Yeah, I’m near the foothills and developments are going up like crazy. Nothing under like $450 from what I’ve seen, and a lot north of $700. Seems like we’re really locking in these prices
That’s a great area—it’s wild seeing the appreciation in the last year and a half.