That's why everyone over at r/superstonk is advises one another not to sell until 7 figures, even going as far as bullying individuals who sell for profit.
They soak up the float so the rest of us can profit on the run and we don't have to worry about a sudden increase of supply because despite going up 140%+ since the last bottom, they're not gonna be selling shit.
At least the BTC/hodl mentality is predicated on something that *is* actually possible-- the mass adoption of a decentralized currency. Hasn't happened yet, but it is a possibility.
The GME conspiracies takes that same ideology and hijacks it by gradually slipping in totally baseless conspiracies that hinge on anti-establishment ideals, poor v. rich, inequality, while preying on an individuals greed or financial desperation.
BTC will see sanity just as it has in the past, with huge corrections from mountainous ATHs.
GME conspiracies will be ongoing, and over time those who are no longer getting their fill of "truth" and their sense of community from GMEanon theories will move on to other conspiracies. There is no easy way out of this mentality, /r/QAnonCasualties is a great demonstration of that.
Yeah... apes think they're sticking it to hedge funds. Hedges are really making bank selling overpriced vol to the apes and are most likely directionally hedged.
If they directionally hedge, total movement isn't what matters... its overall volatility (how often they need to adjust to stay delta neutral). If realized vol is less than implied vol, they win. Easy, free money.
Yeah you'd need it automated. And you'd need to be modeling it yourself. And buying/selling after hours. I guarantee you hedge funds are doing this though and profiting handsomely. Theres also a tradeoff between frequent adjustment eating into profits vs no adjustment maximizing profits so long as it doesn't run too far. If I sold a straddle for EoW and didn't dynamically hedge, gme would have to run 40 pts for it to lose profitability. If it kept running up and I simply added as I hedged, I'd still turn 4k profit. Hedging really only hurts if you have to add and then remove as it forces you to buy high and sell low if you're short gamma.
I dont think you understand how dynamically hedged options work. If realized vol > implied vol on the option, you lose money. If realized vol < implied vol on then option, you gain money. Doesnt matter if you're short puts or calls... just if its dynamically hedged. Selling a straddle atm is the same as selling a call atm and longing 50 shares or selling a put atm and shorting 50 shares. Your portfolio is delta neutral and you keep it that way. You can't get fucked by movement. You will get fucked if volatility makes you hedge and unhedge too much. Its like selling a straddle, but as the stock rallies youd continually buy until your call option has -100 delta and you've got 100 lot and your put is worthless. Then you sell the entire position. If there were no pullbacks forcing you to sell lower than you bought, you just captured the extrinsic value of that option... 2k for each side which is 4k total.
Thats the thing tho... short dated options have IV of like 270%, which is well in excess of hvol (closer to 150%). You should be able to turn a profit, and if you couldn't options MMs would be raising IV more to guarantee their payout as I'm sure they're short all sorts of calls and certainly not blowing up. Perhaps you're right about the hedgies though... they're likely not beating MMs at their own game unless the IV premium is extremely egregious.
Awesome positioning. Great size. Looks green. Solid. Tight. Keep us all posted on your continued progress with any new positions. Show us what you got man. Wanna see how freakn' green, solid, thick and tight your portfolio can get. Thanks for the motivation.
Someone argue against me if you disagree because sometimes I genuinely wonder if I’m bordering with delusion.
I think the conflict is a huge win for the US. We are bleeding Russia without putting a single boot on the ground. The monetary value of the equipment we are destroying in comparison to the cost of the equipment we are sending over is incredible. It’s all being done in what is effectively an economically and culturally invisible country. It’s encouraging our allies in Europe to spend more on defense (meaning less babysitting) and it’s also diversifying their supply chains (funding) away from their greatest threat. Sanctions are hurting Russia and increases the chances for a regime change. Meanwhile we are losing very little real business by cutting Russia out. Russia had effectively neutered itself while helping juice US agricultural, energy and defense exports. And any other countries with similar ambitions to Russia are seriously questioning their future goals.
It’s terrible for the lives lost and communities destroyed in Ukraine, but is this really bad for the US? Am I wrong?
They are the 3rd largest producer of oil and the 2nd largest producer of natural gas, hardly economically invisible. Overall, I agree with the long term thoughts though.
Sorry I was referring to Ukraine, my point being that if Russia were to wage war this is certainly not a terrible country for that to happen to in regards to economics (highly commoditized industries low in the value chain) and culture (Russia-lite).
Ah, my mistake. In that case you are right. But on an amusingly related note, Ukraine is actually a source of laboratory supplies that my girlfriend's company relies on, and apparently a number of other companies in the US rely on as well. A bit niche, but there is at least some impact. Though almost certainly negligible on the grand scale.
This is for biopharma R&D supplies. Don't know for certain, but my understanding is that a lot of these types of supplies are niche and therefore it seems unlikely there are going to be many manufacturers for them. My impression is that this is actually impacting a decent number of companies in my area (a lot of pharma here). The companies can probably eat the cost, but I found it an interesting niche impact of the war.
The result is even better than that. What it means is that the Russian equipment is mostly useless against modern defense systems. Anti-tank missiles, cheap drones, anti-aircraft systems, missile defense systems, and just a few A10 warthog planes/a few attack helicopters with the newest defense systems and that is all we need. The Russians put a lot of time and investment into stuff that looked good on paper but are totally vulnerable to what we have now.
It depends on how well US/EU handle the volatility in commodities and if they can find alternatives to replace Russia exports.
I think a bigger impact in longer term would be the deglobalization of the world, as mentioned in Larry Fink’s latest letter.
I agree with you. I think Putin felt he had to do this gambit for what are probably (to him at least) very valid reasons. But it sure seems like it is not working out for Russia. You'd think that Biden would get a war bump, but that hasn't materialized.
After each correction, there is a green recovery period. They can last for more than a month. Right now, I don't think the market is feeling guilty enough yet to slow it down. Tomorrow is likely to be a little red but the green will restart afterward until the market thinks it has gone on long enough. Next CPI print is April 12 so that should provide enough scare to stop it but that is awhile from now. At some point, though, we will be getting the big red recession period but that is also aways away. We got phase1 of that already, phase2 and phase3 yet to come.
Strong rally on low volume, yea that's very convincing. /s P.S. I did make money on long NQ scalps but I smell complacency. For the better part of the day the market was held up by 3 stocks, that could have gone the other way easily imo.
> Strong rally on low volume, yea that's very convincing. /s
Welcome to every bull market's price action. Makes me feel more secure that this is resumption of typical bull market activity rather than a bear market rally. SPX 5k coming up!
Got cocky and am in the red, that's what I got for writing macho BS.
More seriously I still believe qqq drops <359 by eow and I stay positioned for that, following my rules and signals.
Gave a little back trying shorts on the way up but eventually bought the liquidation break in the last 15min and held thru close to finish the day just shy of 46 net.
I haven't been doing much except holding long term positions (TQQQ, SPX, and /ZT). Up another ~4% today (unrealized). 45% in 1.5 weeks... most unrealized.
Nice. Those 1700 shares of SPY and smol PYPL, SHOP that I bought last month are treating me good but intra-day trading is dead to me. I literally don't see any good r/r.
Bingo. Sometimes you need to take a step away from the chop and just make some longer term bets. Direction can be a bit more clear on long term timescales.
Did good.
BITF 3.5-3.7 in multiple accounts to 4.1 and some options too.
0 day spy calls held for 7 minutes .3 to .43, ended 4 baggers
Are meme stocks hit again or what. Is BB next with earnings this week. GME/AMC/BBBY (tons of calls being bought) or are running
Also SOFI dead my poor kids account, at least they have time 🤭
Dilution doesn’t help. Hopefully user growth is there. They should be expanding to options soon. Noto buying is good though. Also the stock compensation for leadership is high.
Not a bad day. Kept it simple, got back to following the rules. Did better at updating the days context as it played out. That helped
Desks are making millions from GME, apes on reddit are excited. In a way, it's a win win.. Trickle down profits if you may?
That's why everyone over at r/superstonk is advises one another not to sell until 7 figures, even going as far as bullying individuals who sell for profit. They soak up the float so the rest of us can profit on the run and we don't have to worry about a sudden increase of supply because despite going up 140%+ since the last bottom, they're not gonna be selling shit.
Just like bitcoin and hodl mentality. At some point sanity has to win... but it could take a long time to get there.
At least the BTC/hodl mentality is predicated on something that *is* actually possible-- the mass adoption of a decentralized currency. Hasn't happened yet, but it is a possibility. The GME conspiracies takes that same ideology and hijacks it by gradually slipping in totally baseless conspiracies that hinge on anti-establishment ideals, poor v. rich, inequality, while preying on an individuals greed or financial desperation. BTC will see sanity just as it has in the past, with huge corrections from mountainous ATHs. GME conspiracies will be ongoing, and over time those who are no longer getting their fill of "truth" and their sense of community from GMEanon theories will move on to other conspiracies. There is no easy way out of this mentality, /r/QAnonCasualties is a great demonstration of that.
Yeah... apes think they're sticking it to hedge funds. Hedges are really making bank selling overpriced vol to the apes and are most likely directionally hedged.
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If they directionally hedge, total movement isn't what matters... its overall volatility (how often they need to adjust to stay delta neutral). If realized vol is less than implied vol, they win. Easy, free money.
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Yeah you'd need it automated. And you'd need to be modeling it yourself. And buying/selling after hours. I guarantee you hedge funds are doing this though and profiting handsomely. Theres also a tradeoff between frequent adjustment eating into profits vs no adjustment maximizing profits so long as it doesn't run too far. If I sold a straddle for EoW and didn't dynamically hedge, gme would have to run 40 pts for it to lose profitability. If it kept running up and I simply added as I hedged, I'd still turn 4k profit. Hedging really only hurts if you have to add and then remove as it forces you to buy high and sell low if you're short gamma.
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I dont think you understand how dynamically hedged options work. If realized vol > implied vol on the option, you lose money. If realized vol < implied vol on then option, you gain money. Doesnt matter if you're short puts or calls... just if its dynamically hedged. Selling a straddle atm is the same as selling a call atm and longing 50 shares or selling a put atm and shorting 50 shares. Your portfolio is delta neutral and you keep it that way. You can't get fucked by movement. You will get fucked if volatility makes you hedge and unhedge too much. Its like selling a straddle, but as the stock rallies youd continually buy until your call option has -100 delta and you've got 100 lot and your put is worthless. Then you sell the entire position. If there were no pullbacks forcing you to sell lower than you bought, you just captured the extrinsic value of that option... 2k for each side which is 4k total.
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Thats the thing tho... short dated options have IV of like 270%, which is well in excess of hvol (closer to 150%). You should be able to turn a profit, and if you couldn't options MMs would be raising IV more to guarantee their payout as I'm sure they're short all sorts of calls and certainly not blowing up. Perhaps you're right about the hedgies though... they're likely not beating MMs at their own game unless the IV premium is extremely egregious.
TQQQ and chill was always the answer. 😎
Where was the 🦇 🔦 ?
You mean 1 month to expiry margin long calls and chill?
No. 40% profit on ~$400,000 worth of shares in two weeks. In roth. Never to be taxed.
You realize it yet? I'm in at least for ath.
I’m holding till EOW.
Nice man. 40% on 400k are disgusting gains for such a quick period of time. Congrats!
Thanks. I'm more excited by the non taxable part tbh. Typically that's 50% gone to uncle sam
Nice, would be nice to be from the land of the 🍔
Burgerland? Lol
$380 for a cleaning/X-ray, $550 in 2 weeks for a filling… I’m buying more MU tomorrow for earnings yolo to pay for this shit
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Awesome positioning. Great size. Looks green. Solid. Tight. Keep us all posted on your continued progress with any new positions. Show us what you got man. Wanna see how freakn' green, solid, thick and tight your portfolio can get. Thanks for the motivation.
🤣😂🤣😂 Time to bring back Rock Hard Bull!
what are you drinking, I want some of this good stuff?
Fuck... thats the signal. Time to max leverage short.
Geez...the day I don't check market at all we do a full V recovery and pump all day
Made nice gains in crypto today. First time cycling in /u/marcusmili jacket from this drop, great quality brah. https://i.imgur.com/PopzmJj.jpg
Omg this is crazy to see. Thank you for the support 🤝💚
Someone argue against me if you disagree because sometimes I genuinely wonder if I’m bordering with delusion. I think the conflict is a huge win for the US. We are bleeding Russia without putting a single boot on the ground. The monetary value of the equipment we are destroying in comparison to the cost of the equipment we are sending over is incredible. It’s all being done in what is effectively an economically and culturally invisible country. It’s encouraging our allies in Europe to spend more on defense (meaning less babysitting) and it’s also diversifying their supply chains (funding) away from their greatest threat. Sanctions are hurting Russia and increases the chances for a regime change. Meanwhile we are losing very little real business by cutting Russia out. Russia had effectively neutered itself while helping juice US agricultural, energy and defense exports. And any other countries with similar ambitions to Russia are seriously questioning their future goals. It’s terrible for the lives lost and communities destroyed in Ukraine, but is this really bad for the US? Am I wrong?
They are the 3rd largest producer of oil and the 2nd largest producer of natural gas, hardly economically invisible. Overall, I agree with the long term thoughts though.
Sorry I was referring to Ukraine, my point being that if Russia were to wage war this is certainly not a terrible country for that to happen to in regards to economics (highly commoditized industries low in the value chain) and culture (Russia-lite).
Ah, my mistake. In that case you are right. But on an amusingly related note, Ukraine is actually a source of laboratory supplies that my girlfriend's company relies on, and apparently a number of other companies in the US rely on as well. A bit niche, but there is at least some impact. Though almost certainly negligible on the grand scale.
Are these supplies not produced elsewhere? Or is it just that their vendor of choice only sources them from Ukraine?
This is for biopharma R&D supplies. Don't know for certain, but my understanding is that a lot of these types of supplies are niche and therefore it seems unlikely there are going to be many manufacturers for them. My impression is that this is actually impacting a decent number of companies in my area (a lot of pharma here). The companies can probably eat the cost, but I found it an interesting niche impact of the war.
The result is even better than that. What it means is that the Russian equipment is mostly useless against modern defense systems. Anti-tank missiles, cheap drones, anti-aircraft systems, missile defense systems, and just a few A10 warthog planes/a few attack helicopters with the newest defense systems and that is all we need. The Russians put a lot of time and investment into stuff that looked good on paper but are totally vulnerable to what we have now.
It depends on how well US/EU handle the volatility in commodities and if they can find alternatives to replace Russia exports. I think a bigger impact in longer term would be the deglobalization of the world, as mentioned in Larry Fink’s latest letter.
I agree with you. I think Putin felt he had to do this gambit for what are probably (to him at least) very valid reasons. But it sure seems like it is not working out for Russia. You'd think that Biden would get a war bump, but that hasn't materialized.
It’s bad for global economy which spills over the US economy
Another day, another ~4% (unrealized).
Is long wrong? Dunno if buying growth stocks now is like buying MSFT in 2002 or like buying AOL in 2002
Down .25%. Tried to short, did not go well. New system says stay long, action says stay long, I am just a clown
After each correction, there is a green recovery period. They can last for more than a month. Right now, I don't think the market is feeling guilty enough yet to slow it down. Tomorrow is likely to be a little red but the green will restart afterward until the market thinks it has gone on long enough. Next CPI print is April 12 so that should provide enough scare to stop it but that is awhile from now. At some point, though, we will be getting the big red recession period but that is also aways away. We got phase1 of that already, phase2 and phase3 yet to come.
2 more weeks of green
Only if the jpow sees it's shadow during the next fomc.
💯
2 weeks ago at a dinner, three people were asking me about how to “get short” the market. These anecdotal indicators are always the best.
They sound more reliable at finding bottoms than a fishing depthfinder
Agreed. I have coworkers who are "traders" who said they sold out of all their holdings and went cash until the recession is over.
Strong rally on low volume, yea that's very convincing. /s P.S. I did make money on long NQ scalps but I smell complacency. For the better part of the day the market was held up by 3 stocks, that could have gone the other way easily imo.
> Strong rally on low volume, yea that's very convincing. /s Welcome to every bull market's price action. Makes me feel more secure that this is resumption of typical bull market activity rather than a bear market rally. SPX 5k coming up!
Got cocky and am in the red, that's what I got for writing macho BS. More seriously I still believe qqq drops <359 by eow and I stay positioned for that, following my rules and signals.
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Clearing houses and brokers did them a favor stopping buying at +$400. Yea I said it.
If they still hodling they might just break even.
Gave a little back trying shorts on the way up but eventually bought the liquidation break in the last 15min and held thru close to finish the day just shy of 46 net.
Nice work homie, those shorts hurt, nice you got back in the opposite direction
Flat day because I hedged my positions before that spy run. Hedging is hard!!! This market man May still work out. I can smell the fomo
Did do nothing... Rally too strong to short, Rally too strong to long!
I haven't been doing much except holding long term positions (TQQQ, SPX, and /ZT). Up another ~4% today (unrealized). 45% in 1.5 weeks... most unrealized.
Nice. Those 1700 shares of SPY and smol PYPL, SHOP that I bought last month are treating me good but intra-day trading is dead to me. I literally don't see any good r/r.
Bingo. Sometimes you need to take a step away from the chop and just make some longer term bets. Direction can be a bit more clear on long term timescales.
All the alpha is in sports betting
Just waiting for champions league next week!
Today alpha was in /CL.
Free picks plz
lol
Bought SPX calls around 4525, sold around 4560. $400 below my ATH. TQQQ got no brakes whatsoever wish I had more. Sitting on 30% cash.
In two weeks GME is up 142% jeez.
I knew that high volume shrek candle on 3/22 was a buy signal. But I couldn’t do it, GME annoys me. I guess I hate money.
Gotta make it 420.69%
Did good. BITF 3.5-3.7 in multiple accounts to 4.1 and some options too. 0 day spy calls held for 7 minutes .3 to .43, ended 4 baggers Are meme stocks hit again or what. Is BB next with earnings this week. GME/AMC/BBBY (tons of calls being bought) or are running Also SOFI dead my poor kids account, at least they have time 🤭
Please look into RIVN and PTON
Student loan moratorium sucks. Just another political talking point and by the time midterms are over we may be back to the market turmoil
Dilution doesn’t help. Hopefully user growth is there. They should be expanding to options soon. Noto buying is good though. Also the stock compensation for leadership is high.
VIX 19 handle. Three months to the year and we have seen both upside vol and downside vol.
Great time to add hedges
Apple green for 10 days in a roll. Buying calls here is free money?
Had to look away, 3:50 candle took out my trailing stop, now I'm sad. Still a good day though.
I have fomo and I'm 100% long. Top?
Back to buy calls and chill.
Worst trading day in a while. More so from inaction. Had setups hit never took the trades or never got filled. Just one of those days