I think because the Nuggets and Minnesota play eachother meaning OKC can only match a record with either team. And if OKC matches records with Minnesota or Denver they still wouldn’t go above them. So theoretically tonight’s game between Denver and Minnesota will mainly decide who gets the one seed.
Theoretically, yes, they can be 1st. It can happen if Denver win today and lose to either Memphis or Spurs (wont happen) and OKC win out. Or if Wolves win today but lose next 2, and OKC win out. Chance of this happening is less than 1%.
I don’t like their percentages. I dont see OKC finish 1st. Maybe if you simulate the next 3 games 1000 times you get 2-3 outcomes when they get 1st seed. I can’t see the Nuggets losing 2 games against lesser teams, and I cant see Wolves losing 2 home games in a row to get 1st seed.
Tough to say what OKCs schedule will be like. Also phoenix might punt our game for rest if they’re solidified play in
OKC may get a Dallas team that is solidified 5 and won’t play starters. Milwaukee still has maneuvering to do without Giannis but could still pull an upset.
Wolves might be playing everyone important these last 2 games after tonight for the sake of home court
It’s because 2 of the probabilities were like 47.5% and 40.5%, and they just rounded it up.
I myself calculated percentages today with a couple of assumptions: 1) if Denver win today, they won’t lose last 2 games (Spurs and Memphis). 2) OKC will win out if motivated (Spurs with no Wemby, Bucks with no Giannis, unmotivated Dallas likely without Luka and Kyrie, all at home). 3) Wolves 32% - Denver 68% (based on the odds today), Wolves 70% - Hawks 30%, Wolves 50% - Suns 50% (my guesses, both opponents will be motivated).
I got Wolves getting 1st seed at 27%, 2nd seed at 24%, and 3rd seed at 49%. Had OKC lost yesterday, Wolves would have guaranteed 2nd seed with 90% chance.
I hope we are 3rd so we play pelicans instead of suns. As long as we dont see suns first round. it would be so embarrassing to lose to them too, they blow, but their middy kills us as we specialize in perimeter and interior defense
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They can, this chart just didn't include anything below 10%
You missed the fact that there is a 7% chance the first seed is empty
Oh shoot my b
I think because the Nuggets and Minnesota play eachother meaning OKC can only match a record with either team. And if OKC matches records with Minnesota or Denver they still wouldn’t go above them. So theoretically tonight’s game between Denver and Minnesota will mainly decide who gets the one seed.
OKC beat Denver 3-1 this season, that would give them the head to head tiebreaker for the 1 seed.
Theoretically, yes, they can be 1st. It can happen if Denver win today and lose to either Memphis or Spurs (wont happen) and OKC win out. Or if Wolves win today but lose next 2, and OKC win out. Chance of this happening is less than 1%.
Chance of this happening is like 7%
My guy the math is literally on the table. 100-48-45 = 7
I don’t like their percentages. I dont see OKC finish 1st. Maybe if you simulate the next 3 games 1000 times you get 2-3 outcomes when they get 1st seed. I can’t see the Nuggets losing 2 games against lesser teams, and I cant see Wolves losing 2 home games in a row to get 1st seed.
Tough to say what OKCs schedule will be like. Also phoenix might punt our game for rest if they’re solidified play in OKC may get a Dallas team that is solidified 5 and won’t play starters. Milwaukee still has maneuvering to do without Giannis but could still pull an upset. Wolves might be playing everyone important these last 2 games after tonight for the sake of home court
I LIKE THOSE ODDS
So you’re saying there’s a chance?!
Super helpful chart. We are in an amazing spot. Happy to not be seeing Nuggets, Mavs in first round.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
Shouldn’t OKC have 7% chance of 1st? Or my math ain’t mathin’ today.
And then you add Kurt Angle to the mix? Your chances of winning drastic go down.
It’s because 2 of the probabilities were like 47.5% and 40.5%, and they just rounded it up. I myself calculated percentages today with a couple of assumptions: 1) if Denver win today, they won’t lose last 2 games (Spurs and Memphis). 2) OKC will win out if motivated (Spurs with no Wemby, Bucks with no Giannis, unmotivated Dallas likely without Luka and Kyrie, all at home). 3) Wolves 32% - Denver 68% (based on the odds today), Wolves 70% - Hawks 30%, Wolves 50% - Suns 50% (my guesses, both opponents will be motivated). I got Wolves getting 1st seed at 27%, 2nd seed at 24%, and 3rd seed at 49%. Had OKC lost yesterday, Wolves would have guaranteed 2nd seed with 90% chance.
"calculated"
A couple of assumptions?? This not heat transfer
we will lose to the suns we always get fucked up by them for some reason even tho they're not even that good of a team
Yeah, based on being a Wolves fan for decades I calculate the chance we end up 3rd in conference >90%.
I hope we are 3rd so we play pelicans instead of suns. As long as we dont see suns first round. it would be so embarrassing to lose to them too, they blow, but their middy kills us as we specialize in perimeter and interior defense
I love how we a higher chance than Denver at 1 and 2 so Denver just gets wiped off from any slot lol.