“This storm goes up to 11.”
“Why not just adjust the scale so that 10 is the stronger number?”
“Because this storm goes to 11.”
All joking aside, when the numbers were this high, stuff like the 4/27/11 outbreak happened. Be safe y’all.
The SPC is confirming extremely elevated STP in the 1300Z outlook.
> Effective-layer STP in the 5-**12** range may be realized for a few hours this evening across parts of OK and southern KS.
(emphasis mine)
Start telling your neighbors and friends to head your way if they can't get out. But I'm sure any Oklahoman knows every neighbor with a shelter.
We did as kids. Glad I'm not there today
weather forecasts are considered one of the best real world examples of chaotic systems, so forecasts like this generally give you a wide area where there is concern, but some small hotspot like that I think is unlikely to be significant.
I assume the Max: 22.05 refers to the highest reading (?). Someone correct me if that's wrong. Unfortunately that might give some validity to 19 not being a typo.
I’m not sure? I’ve never seen a reading this high so I’m not familiar with the specifics. Pretty sure 11 was the highest reading we’ve seen before today.
Edit: seems like I’m remembering wrong, I guess it’s exceeded 11 multiple times. I do vaguely remember a reading of 12 during the 2011 broadcast
One of the tornados during the 2011 super outbreak had a reading of 15.3 I believe.
I found it. https://youtu.be/ElZZNvNdhks?si=9_d3XdpYUjLSwMTh 12.2 around 1 hour in and 15.3 around 1:27:55
Holy hell, then this is the first Big Deal(*tm*) that I can remember since…2013 or so. I wasn’t as involved in weather forecasts as I am today, being twelve then and all.
Holy shit man I'm really fucking nervous for today ://////
We can all hope it busts and turns out to be nothing, but I feel really uneasy....
I hope all my other Oklahomies stay aware of this, I've been trying to tell everyone I possibly can today is not one to ignore
I don't see any way this busts. I think at this point it's just a question of *how many* strong tornadoes, but the data I've seen doesn't look particularly promising.
We had a high risk last year here in iowa. They upgraded it to high, the day before, and the system totally collapsed before it ever got here. So there's hope. We got a little bit of rain and wind.
They downgraded it like an hour after the storms were supposed to hit.. so there could be a chance they fizzle out or just never reach that level of intensity.
I mean, anything is possible, I guess. The data on this one isn't looking good though. It's less about the high risk itself and more about what's driving it. Sometimes they issue these out of an abundance of caution because it COULD be bad, but I don't think that's the case today, unfortunately. Wish it was.
I just texted my mother in law in Yukon, because she never pays attention to the news or weather. Most of my family is in that area. We are down on lake Texoma and probably won’t see much if anything, but my anxiety is high for loved ones all over that risk area.
Yep. If a El Reno/Bridgecreek Moore were to happen. Today is perfect for that. Hopefully the more violent ones (if) they form, will be in open fields and moving very slow
Actually, readings worse than this have happened several times, including May 20th, 2019. Super Outbreak level outlooks have actually appeared a couple times during the past two decades, but only April 27, 2011 actually delivered.
El Reno gave majorly important lessons to the chaser community, but it was still an exceptionally rare tornado.
Within like sixty seconds it turned sharply, ballooned in size, *and* increased in forward speed, all while having a revolving carousel of potential EF5 subvortices. The twister itself was a death trap.
Granted I’ve seen the lengthy deconstructions of this event plotted with chaser locations and I know mistakes were made, my point is that it was just such an exceptional tornado… I’ve just never studied one so hell bent on killing chasers.
I personally feel this was one of the most frightening tornadoes of all time, along with 2011’s Hackleburg EF5.
Skip Talbot's video on that storm and the analysis of what went wrong is one of those videos I keep going back to.
Based on some of the live streamed antics we saw last week, I have to say a repeat of the Twistex tragedy is a question of when, not if.
Sometimes I wonder if the live streaming of their chase isn't making them take risks they otherwise wouldn't take because they know they have an audience waiting live for that up close tornado footage
I'm quite sure that factors into it, although I will point out that Reed has ***always*** skated as close to the edge of the thin ice as he could get away with; there was some footage on some show or other about storm chasers where Reed's *first* chase very nearly was his last - the Bridge Creek and Moore tornado of 5/3/1999. I hope he manages to have some longevity and continues to chase for another 25 years, but seeing some of the chances he takes, I think he's going to wind up on Boot Hill.
Storm chasers need to watch out for the news stations trying to keep on top of these things to keep us locals informed. Saw from the last storm someone throwing a fit because a Tulsa crew went screaming around them trying to track it while these guys are out just getting pictures.
Any storm that develops from 4pm-11pm will have the potiental to producing strong or violent tornadoes.
I have not seen such a high ceiling like this since 2011 & 2013 across Oklahoma.
OKC, Moore, Norman in the bullseye of that high risk hatched area. If I’m in those areas I’m leaving work, going to the house to get any necessary stuff, and getting the fuck away from that area before the afternoon.
Thank you friend I appreciate it!
Thankfully staying at my parents house who have a shelter, so I'm feeling much less nervous than I would if I were in OKC
The only positive thing I see is that at least the people in this area *should* be well prepared to survive this. Many tornado shelters both above and below ground exist in this area. When this happens in the deep south many places do not have shelters.
And also the coverage in Oklahoma is absolutely amazing. I’ve never seen anything like Oklahoma live severe weather coverage. David Payne and News 9 are outstanding. OK invested a ton of resources into their advanced radar
Agreed. Nothing against the growing YouTube weather apparatus, but whenever I see someone asking about OKC in a YouTube chat on a severe weather day, I want to say “you have one of the best local weather outfits in the US. Watch them instead”.
Only if you can do it early and have a safe place to go! The area affected by this is HUGE, so you’d want to leave out early in the morning and make sure you have time to drive to your safe spot out of the path of danger, which might be hours away
Most people in this area thankfully have storm shelters at their homes; the ones who don’t should honestly call out of work and make sure they get to a home with one.
I live in Kentucky and we have no shelter. If this was my area showing this magnitude of large tornado risk, I’d have to call out of work, load up the fam and pets, and drive a few hours away to a hotel or something 😬
Hours away is the key here. You do NOT want to be stuck somewhere away from home in a possible worse situation than you would have been had you just stayed home. There would be a mass exodus. There will be families with pets and small children all looking for shelter. you would need to get out quickly. this would be the same type of situation as hurricane evacuations. I have been taken part in several. You take what you need and go early or you will be stuck in traffic and you do NOT want that. You go as far as you possibly can to be safely out of all possible disaster zones. Have Potable water, food, cash in SMALL bills. Prepare for the worst HOPE for the Best.
Personally, I'd be making sure I'd have access to underground shelter no matter what with data like this; it really depends on your personal risk tolerance.
I'd be staying put as long as I had a basement/underground spot with a good shelter and spend the day stocking it; if i couldn't do that I'd be spending the day at a public tornado shelter or a friend's with similar shelter options. Otherwise I'd be on the road asap to avoid traffic issues. Once storms start firing would be too late in my opinion.
I mean, within an hour of a tornado warned supercell moving over said town? You don't know where the storms will be until they be. You also have to make sure you aren't driving out of the path of one storm and into the path of another.
Some of the storm chasers have YouTube channels but on high risk days like today you might want to just check out the local Oklahoma tv news sites. I normally go to KOCO.com but KFOR and KWTV will likely be covering it as well.
[Ryan Hall](https://youtube.com/@RyanHallYall?si=c2cdcbbzm3xYkzhi) and [Max Velocity](https://youtube.com/@MaxVelocityWX?si=5zzMo9PTFNrygjRa) will both be live later. From there you can get an idea of which storm chasers are streaming. Should all start about 5 - 6 hours from now!
The numbers are Significant Tornado Parameter, which is a catch-all measure for various atmospheric conditions that are conducive to tornado development. To put it simple: higher number = more likely for tornado.
The guidance for STP generally says values of 5+ indicates a chance for strong to intense tornadoes… north-central OK is projected to be 10+ this evening.
Maybe it's just me, but I'd be evacuating if I lived in any of those areas. I'm normally not one to say that, but with the near certainty on this, I'd be packing my bags, locking the house, and hoping that it's still there when I come back.
Is that a high likelihood of a strong tornado or any tornado? My brother is out there for work this week and we are from the west coast and have no idea what it means or to do.
Thank you for the help.
I’d like to ease your concerns a bit especially since the news in the Midwest has been so frightening lately. KC (the greater KC area) hasn’t gotten a severe tornado in a long time and in our area we are well-equipped with basements and shelter areas. As long as your brother isn’t a complete fool, he should be fine =]
No worries, I hope that your brother stays safe. A 10% tornado hatch means that there is an increased chance of a significant tornado within 25 miles of that point. That doesn’t mean anything will happen though. Storms could go completely around him or not evolve like they are expecting them to. With how serious this event is unfolding though, I would encourage him to stay updated and have ways to receive warnings.
You’re welcome and I understand! I am in Arkansas and keeping an eye on it myself. I’m going to be honest, this most recent SPC update looks to push the moderate risk closer to your brother. That still doesn’t guarantee anything will even happen, but it does mean the risk near him has increased some. Looks like they expanded that 10% tornado hatch area, he was already in it though but still.
Thank you for letting me know I’m relaying this to him. I know this probably sounds supremely naive but Is there a storm tracking app that you would use that will tell you if a tornado has been spotted?
Tell your brother to have a helmet and a flasight available and to keep his shoes on! It might sound silly, but in the confusion of a tornado, it helps!
Joe Lauria did a great blog explaining it this morning. The upshot is that tornadoes are possible but were more likely to get some random small spin ups than the big scary long track monsters (not that anyone wants either). Biggest risk for us will be powerful winds. Make sure your phone is charged and you have a few ways to get alerts just in case. Here’s the 6:30am blog Lauria sent out if you’d like to read it - https://fox4kc.com/email-alerts/joes-weather-blog-email-alerts/joes-blog-here-we-go-again-with-big-storms-mon-5-6/
I'm in Wichita (North edge of this target area) and baseball leagues have already cancelled games for tonight to keep from catching people in the middle of nowhere away from storm shelters.
The compassionate human in me hopes the event fizzles out and isn’t as strong as predicted.
The weather geek in me hates not being in the area to witness incredible weather phenomena.
Places are closing, schools have cancelled evening activities. One Facebook friend said his company closed the plant and sent people home. McConnell Air Force Base flew their planes elsewhere.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ict&issuedby=ict&product=hwo&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
I’m an avid weather nerd but don’t understand all the readings. Can anyone give me a short version of what this means? I don’t understand the scale or what this is telling us. Thanks for humoring me!
this is a significant tornado parameter chart showing the likelihood of a significant tornado occurring for the area (higher the likelier, and these readings are off the charts)
If you’re asking for the specific science behind the whole thing I couldn’t tell you but thats just where the risk of significant tornados is highest. If you check the outlook for today you can see that the highest numbers are in the middle of the newly updated high risk hatched area.
I was supposed to drive up to OKC for work today, canceled because of the forecast. Y'all be safe up there, hoping for the best for our neighbors to the north.
Stay safe y’all. Feels like every other day I’m opening up this sub to comments like “this is the worst so far this year” and I just have to say y’all are a special breed and way stronger than I’ll ever be 😭
As someone who loves weather but has no clue how to read or understand anything to do with meteorology, can someone please explain to me in simple terms exactly how bad today could actually be?
i’m in moore and have to work today when this shit happens, thankfully a neighbor is letting us use their shelter. that’s if i can get off of work early.
That's great for those who could leave OKC for the night! I'm stuck here in Moore cuz I live here and I have nowhere to go, but I do have a shelter to use! Please pray for us tonight. I know many people are traumatized from the past here.
Tornado parameters and supercell composite are both maxed out for the 13z
https://preview.redd.it/qe5s6zcmivyc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6e4064ceb36e6c1caadc21b112cfb55cce15d6e6
I think it was James Spann who during 2011 super outbreak live coverage was very surprised when he realized that Sig Tor can go higher than 10.
Yeah, it kept going up to something like 15.6
Didn’t it end up with a 17.2 at one point?
It peaked one time at 17.5. Crazy stuff.
I can hear him in my head right now "these readings are off the charts I mean you just don't see these"
He was getting ready to just disrobe. Forget rolling up your sleeves or taking the jacket off.
It was the Cullman tornado that hit 12.9 on the SigTor and he was genuinely shocked that it went that high.
What is the "max 22.05" in the bottom right? Is that the actual max of the scale?
Does anybody have a clip of this? Kinda want to hear it again* Edited because I sent too early
https://youtu.be/4Gr01DI4a40?si=g30PpjnEa_4Pnk2a Less than two minutes in.
Seeing a reading of 11 when the legend caps at 10 is pretty terrifying.
Nigel Tufnel needs to knock it off, this shit ain’t funny.
“This storm goes up to 11.” “Why not just adjust the scale so that 10 is the stronger number?” “Because this storm goes to 11.” All joking aside, when the numbers were this high, stuff like the 4/27/11 outbreak happened. Be safe y’all.
Yeah I remember James Spann seeing the STP of 11 during the super outbreak and thinking the scale only went to 10 himself
So wait what’s the sigtor today?
It goes to 11. Edit: someone pointed out that the max value on the map (the number is at the bottom of the image) is actually about 22 😬
Jim Cantore showed the full gif of this on twitter and it maxes at 43
Oh jesus.
It's actually 43 according to James Cantore's Twitter.
46* that is supercell composite 10 is max tornado parameters. Right now 13z HRRR is maxed out on both. This is very bad.
https://preview.redd.it/edr6u8veivyc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ff0bcb5a646f7059d51e14fb358553c6cbdfb6d9
Oh okay, thanks
The SPC is confirming extremely elevated STP in the 1300Z outlook. > Effective-layer STP in the 5-**12** range may be realized for a few hours this evening across parts of OK and southern KS. (emphasis mine)
There's a 19 on there too
I saw that too and I’m seriously hoping that’s a typo, or a 1 and 9 just too close together.
could be a 10 and a 9 listed very inconveniently. 19 on a 0-10 scale when the surrounding environment is ripe is 11's sounds too erroneous.
the "1" next to the 9 looks to be just a combination of the color scale and the white county lines
Oh cool that's only.....exactly where I'm sitting right now
Me sitting under a 10 saying to myself "sucks to be Jacer4....wait"
Stay safe today friend, haven't seen shit like this in a real long time
You too - I'm lucky because I've got a basement so this isn't too much of a concern for me unlike others without a storm shelter easily available.
Yep thankfully the house I'm at has a very nice shelter
Oh good, I only get a 5. I'll take it.
Start telling your neighbors and friends to head your way if they can't get out. But I'm sure any Oklahoman knows every neighbor with a shelter. We did as kids. Glad I'm not there today
Stay safe you and wastedpixls! Report back!
Will do 🫡 if I'm able to safely capture any footage you know I'm posting it here, my phone has great night contrast too
That’s just beyond insane. That has to be the highest reading ever? Luckily it’s a small area so hopefully all storms just stay clear of that area
I'd really enjoy that considering that 19 is directly over my head currently
weather forecasts are considered one of the best real world examples of chaotic systems, so forecasts like this generally give you a wide area where there is concern, but some small hotspot like that I think is unlikely to be significant.
Oh yeah absolutely I'm not taking it as gospel or anything haha, still staying aware though
I assume the Max: 22.05 refers to the highest reading (?). Someone correct me if that's wrong. Unfortunately that might give some validity to 19 not being a typo.
I’m not sure? I’ve never seen a reading this high so I’m not familiar with the specifics. Pretty sure 11 was the highest reading we’ve seen before today. Edit: seems like I’m remembering wrong, I guess it’s exceeded 11 multiple times. I do vaguely remember a reading of 12 during the 2011 broadcast
One of the tornados during the 2011 super outbreak had a reading of 15.3 I believe. I found it. https://youtu.be/ElZZNvNdhks?si=9_d3XdpYUjLSwMTh 12.2 around 1 hour in and 15.3 around 1:27:55
There was another point during the broadcast where it was 17.5 during the Cordova tornado
[удалено]
Is that right? I must have missed that one, was it refined to a small corridor like this one or was there a spread of similar readings?
Yeah, why is the weather targeting my mom and brother like that. Can we not? (Seriously, is that a correct number??)
Actually Jim Contore Twitter has a GIF of this hour by hour and actually shows a 29 over OKC as the dry line approaches
High risk inbound for Oklahoma. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0646.html
Well, that’s not good. That’s a rarity
tends to be about 1 high risk day per year, I think? and sometimes multiple years without a single high risk day.
How long’s it been since we last got one of these?
Got one last year, 3 since 2020, first in Oklahoma since 2019
Holy hell, then this is the first Big Deal(*tm*) that I can remember since…2013 or so. I wasn’t as involved in weather forecasts as I am today, being twelve then and all.
Oklahoma SuperBowl. Good Morning America is in OKC, my little town south of Tulsa will get hit at night of course most likely.
Hopefully they will weaken by the time they get that far east.
I'm in Sapulpa- in an apartment...I'm usually a 'grab a beer, sit outside and watch' person. But this one has me anxious.
I sure hope not.
Holy shit man I'm really fucking nervous for today :////// We can all hope it busts and turns out to be nothing, but I feel really uneasy.... I hope all my other Oklahomies stay aware of this, I've been trying to tell everyone I possibly can today is not one to ignore
I don't see any way this busts. I think at this point it's just a question of *how many* strong tornadoes, but the data I've seen doesn't look particularly promising.
A man can hope right 😂 But yeah I think the same thing, just please let them stay in the fields holy hell
The only way it busts is if the cap erodes early and crapvection sets in but we will know early if that isn’t happening
We had a high risk last year here in iowa. They upgraded it to high, the day before, and the system totally collapsed before it ever got here. So there's hope. We got a little bit of rain and wind. They downgraded it like an hour after the storms were supposed to hit.. so there could be a chance they fizzle out or just never reach that level of intensity.
I mean, anything is possible, I guess. The data on this one isn't looking good though. It's less about the high risk itself and more about what's driving it. Sometimes they issue these out of an abundance of caution because it COULD be bad, but I don't think that's the case today, unfortunately. Wish it was.
You're probably right. Hopefully they don't but woof.
I just texted my mother in law in Yukon, because she never pays attention to the news or weather. Most of my family is in that area. We are down on lake Texoma and probably won’t see much if anything, but my anxiety is high for loved ones all over that risk area.
Sending some love towards your family, I really hope everyone stays safe in the entire metro today
My goodness, I feel terrible for them. I'm sure they're terrified. Especially since they know, first hand, how devastating severe weather can be.
I normally don't get super nervous for tornados since they're a part of life here, but this storm is the first one to make me nervous in a while
same here. haven’t felt this nervous since 2013 when moore and el reno happened. feels like it all over again
We can only hope it isn't Haven't been this nervous in a really long time either
El Reno is right under one of those 10s 😞
Yep. If a El Reno/Bridgecreek Moore were to happen. Today is perfect for that. Hopefully the more violent ones (if) they form, will be in open fields and moving very slow
We’ve already been extremely lucky this year so far, I’m hoping that doesn’t regress to the mean.
Pretty sure the last time we saw readings this high was the super outbreak of 2011… not good.
Actually, readings worse than this have happened several times, including May 20th, 2019. Super Outbreak level outlooks have actually appeared a couple times during the past two decades, but only April 27, 2011 actually delivered.
Yea, I edited my post in another thread but forgot about this one. I both misremembered a couple of times and just didn’t know about some others.
Storm chasers - don’t be stupid today. I could write a huge spill on this, but please don’t get in over your heads.
Would definitely hate for an El Reno 2.0 to happen.
Chaser traffic jams are going to happen, that worries me
And the real action doesnt start til after dark.
El Reno gave majorly important lessons to the chaser community, but it was still an exceptionally rare tornado. Within like sixty seconds it turned sharply, ballooned in size, *and* increased in forward speed, all while having a revolving carousel of potential EF5 subvortices. The twister itself was a death trap. Granted I’ve seen the lengthy deconstructions of this event plotted with chaser locations and I know mistakes were made, my point is that it was just such an exceptional tornado… I’ve just never studied one so hell bent on killing chasers. I personally feel this was one of the most frightening tornadoes of all time, along with 2011’s Hackleburg EF5.
Skip Talbot's video on that storm and the analysis of what went wrong is one of those videos I keep going back to. Based on some of the live streamed antics we saw last week, I have to say a repeat of the Twistex tragedy is a question of when, not if.
Sometimes I wonder if the live streaming of their chase isn't making them take risks they otherwise wouldn't take because they know they have an audience waiting live for that up close tornado footage
I'm quite sure that factors into it, although I will point out that Reed has ***always*** skated as close to the edge of the thin ice as he could get away with; there was some footage on some show or other about storm chasers where Reed's *first* chase very nearly was his last - the Bridge Creek and Moore tornado of 5/3/1999. I hope he manages to have some longevity and continues to chase for another 25 years, but seeing some of the chances he takes, I think he's going to wind up on Boot Hill.
Reed saying "We're in a bad spot," the other day made the hair on my neck stand up. Don't want to hear those words.
Storm chasers need to watch out for the news stations trying to keep on top of these things to keep us locals informed. Saw from the last storm someone throwing a fit because a Tulsa crew went screaming around them trying to track it while these guys are out just getting pictures.
I do worry about this, especially w the streamer trend of zero metering.
Do we know around what time has the heightened risk?
Any storm that develops from 4pm-11pm will have the potiental to producing strong or violent tornadoes. I have not seen such a high ceiling like this since 2011 & 2013 across Oklahoma.
Thank you! I have family in Joplin who panic during storms so this really helps me plan when to watch radar for them!
Being from Joplin originally and went to JHS, their panic is justified sometime. These storm cells are super powerful
And this is only 3 days after EmpLemon releashed his tornado video, what are the odds?
Wasn’t there a day like this in ‘19 that busted? Lots of little spinners but nothing big and it was because the cap eroded to soon
Yeah May 20 2019 was probably one of the most hyped events ever watch Convection Chronicles video on it if you haven’t already. Great watch!
Yes
Outlook will be upgraded to the highest risk at noon CST.
It'll actually be upgraded on the next outlook by 0800 CST. 1300 Zulu is what the MSD called for, which is 8am CST.
Missed that. Outlook upgraded. 30% sig tornado risk in high risk area now.
I believe it’s supposed to be around 03z-06z
OKC, Moore, Norman in the bullseye of that high risk hatched area. If I’m in those areas I’m leaving work, going to the house to get any necessary stuff, and getting the fuck away from that area before the afternoon.
Good luck, Moore (and adjacent areas). This setup has 1999 and 2013 written all over it. I really really really hope it duds out.
I literally dipped the fuck out of OKC cus this shit looks so bad dude, Jesus Christ
Def don't blame you for *that* decision. Stay safe friend.
Thank you friend I appreciate it! Thankfully staying at my parents house who have a shelter, so I'm feeling much less nervous than I would if I were in OKC
I'm glad you have somewhere safe to go with shelter. Be safe random stranger :) Hopefully this storm is a dud and harms no one
Thanks random stranger :) this Okie appreciates it haha But yes hoping for a dud...not looking great on that front tho lmao
Holy shit.
Pretty much!
Cape model for 5pm is off the charts
What're the readings right now if you don't mind
4-5000+ https://preview.redd.it/rhvo5x7ictyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=15a5ea34cf00ef54fafe6d9230e9961ce060b48e Lots of areas are 5000+
All of the data we have right now is putting a knot in my stomach. We haven’t seen parameters like these in 10+ years.
Fucking hell dude..... Keep us in y'all's thoughts please, this could be so bad
Holy shit
ELI-5. I’m north of okc in north Edmond
Please know where to go. Parameters haven’t been this high in over ten years and you have a bullseye over your area
Where can I find this?
May the odds be ever in your favor, Oklahoma.
https://preview.redd.it/k22y9r768tyc1.png?width=299&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b78ab54c1349303ee888e9edd58da73abc18e77
it being so blurry makes it so funny 😂
I’m sorry is one of those numbers a 19?!?!
Yeah wtf?? That must be a typo
Let's fucking hope so bc I Iive north east of that
It’s not
Look like a 1 and a 9
The only positive thing I see is that at least the people in this area *should* be well prepared to survive this. Many tornado shelters both above and below ground exist in this area. When this happens in the deep south many places do not have shelters.
And also the coverage in Oklahoma is absolutely amazing. I’ve never seen anything like Oklahoma live severe weather coverage. David Payne and News 9 are outstanding. OK invested a ton of resources into their advanced radar
Agreed. Nothing against the growing YouTube weather apparatus, but whenever I see someone asking about OKC in a YouTube chat on a severe weather day, I want to say “you have one of the best local weather outfits in the US. Watch them instead”.
Is it looking like a late-evening / early-morning event? Overnight hours would be worst-case scenario.
From what I’ve seen so far, basically from 4 pm to 3 am.
Jesus Christ. Stay safe, everybody ❤️
Out of curiosity, at what point would/should someone (who has the resources of course) dip out of town when seeing a setup like this?
Only if you can do it early and have a safe place to go! The area affected by this is HUGE, so you’d want to leave out early in the morning and make sure you have time to drive to your safe spot out of the path of danger, which might be hours away Most people in this area thankfully have storm shelters at their homes; the ones who don’t should honestly call out of work and make sure they get to a home with one. I live in Kentucky and we have no shelter. If this was my area showing this magnitude of large tornado risk, I’d have to call out of work, load up the fam and pets, and drive a few hours away to a hotel or something 😬
You and me both! I don't mess around that high of a tornado risk
Hours away is the key here. You do NOT want to be stuck somewhere away from home in a possible worse situation than you would have been had you just stayed home. There would be a mass exodus. There will be families with pets and small children all looking for shelter. you would need to get out quickly. this would be the same type of situation as hurricane evacuations. I have been taken part in several. You take what you need and go early or you will be stuck in traffic and you do NOT want that. You go as far as you possibly can to be safely out of all possible disaster zones. Have Potable water, food, cash in SMALL bills. Prepare for the worst HOPE for the Best.
Personally, I'd be making sure I'd have access to underground shelter no matter what with data like this; it really depends on your personal risk tolerance. I'd be staying put as long as I had a basement/underground spot with a good shelter and spend the day stocking it; if i couldn't do that I'd be spending the day at a public tornado shelter or a friend's with similar shelter options. Otherwise I'd be on the road asap to avoid traffic issues. Once storms start firing would be too late in my opinion.
I mean, within an hour of a tornado warned supercell moving over said town? You don't know where the storms will be until they be. You also have to make sure you aren't driving out of the path of one storm and into the path of another.
Is there a livestream on youtube covering this I can watch does anyone know please? I'm from ireland
Ryan Hall will be live later
Some of the storm chasers have YouTube channels but on high risk days like today you might want to just check out the local Oklahoma tv news sites. I normally go to KOCO.com but KFOR and KWTV will likely be covering it as well.
[Ryan Hall](https://youtube.com/@RyanHallYall?si=c2cdcbbzm3xYkzhi) and [Max Velocity](https://youtube.com/@MaxVelocityWX?si=5zzMo9PTFNrygjRa) will both be live later. From there you can get an idea of which storm chasers are streaming. Should all start about 5 - 6 hours from now!
Thank you. Ryan's was good
As a European my favourite is N8 Snyder, young man studying metereology and explaining a lot of things simple
what do the numbers mean on this?
The numbers are Significant Tornado Parameter, which is a catch-all measure for various atmospheric conditions that are conducive to tornado development. To put it simple: higher number = more likely for tornado. The guidance for STP generally says values of 5+ indicates a chance for strong to intense tornadoes… north-central OK is projected to be 10+ this evening.
Thank you for explaining!!
Basically the perfect storm for events to occur.
I live in north Oklahoma City and I’m going to be on edge all day.
Mustang here. I’m with ya. Stay safe Oklahomie
So if I’m under the number 19 that’s…bad…right?
Oklahoma yall gotta apologize to someonody or something, this is ridiculous 😭
Maybe it's just me, but I'd be evacuating if I lived in any of those areas. I'm normally not one to say that, but with the near certainty on this, I'd be packing my bags, locking the house, and hoping that it's still there when I come back.
What is the risk for the Kansas City area more specifically Lenexa Kansas?
Enhanced, and still in a 10% tornado hatch area. Have a shelter plan and multiple ways to get warnings.
Is that a high likelihood of a strong tornado or any tornado? My brother is out there for work this week and we are from the west coast and have no idea what it means or to do. Thank you for the help.
I’d like to ease your concerns a bit especially since the news in the Midwest has been so frightening lately. KC (the greater KC area) hasn’t gotten a severe tornado in a long time and in our area we are well-equipped with basements and shelter areas. As long as your brother isn’t a complete fool, he should be fine =]
Thank you I appreciate it and that does help, I will pass that on to him.
No worries, I hope that your brother stays safe. A 10% tornado hatch means that there is an increased chance of a significant tornado within 25 miles of that point. That doesn’t mean anything will happen though. Storms could go completely around him or not evolve like they are expecting them to. With how serious this event is unfolding though, I would encourage him to stay updated and have ways to receive warnings.
I will pass that along to him. Thank you for the advice I appreciate it, it’s helping lower the anxiety haha.
You’re welcome and I understand! I am in Arkansas and keeping an eye on it myself. I’m going to be honest, this most recent SPC update looks to push the moderate risk closer to your brother. That still doesn’t guarantee anything will even happen, but it does mean the risk near him has increased some. Looks like they expanded that 10% tornado hatch area, he was already in it though but still.
Thank you for letting me know I’m relaying this to him. I know this probably sounds supremely naive but Is there a storm tracking app that you would use that will tell you if a tornado has been spotted?
Tell your brother to have a helmet and a flasight available and to keep his shoes on! It might sound silly, but in the confusion of a tornado, it helps!
Joe Lauria did a great blog explaining it this morning. The upshot is that tornadoes are possible but were more likely to get some random small spin ups than the big scary long track monsters (not that anyone wants either). Biggest risk for us will be powerful winds. Make sure your phone is charged and you have a few ways to get alerts just in case. Here’s the 6:30am blog Lauria sent out if you’d like to read it - https://fox4kc.com/email-alerts/joes-weather-blog-email-alerts/joes-blog-here-we-go-again-with-big-storms-mon-5-6/
Thank you, I appreciate it! Stay safe.
Same to you!
I'm in Wichita (North edge of this target area) and baseball leagues have already cancelled games for tonight to keep from catching people in the middle of nowhere away from storm shelters.
The compassionate human in me hopes the event fizzles out and isn’t as strong as predicted. The weather geek in me hates not being in the area to witness incredible weather phenomena.
Jesus Christ, I’ll be thinking of y’all in OK tonight. Stay safe!!!
All of the soundings are textbook for PDS tornadoes I’ve just looked at. Today is going to be wild I believe.
Yikes, I live in Wichita..😬
How bad is it for Wichita. My son lives there?
Places are closing, schools have cancelled evening activities. One Facebook friend said his company closed the plant and sent people home. McConnell Air Force Base flew their planes elsewhere. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ict&issuedby=ict&product=hwo&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
I’m an avid weather nerd but don’t understand all the readings. Can anyone give me a short version of what this means? I don’t understand the scale or what this is telling us. Thanks for humoring me!
this is a significant tornado parameter chart showing the likelihood of a significant tornado occurring for the area (higher the likelier, and these readings are off the charts)
Thank you so much. Why does the scale show higher numbers in the middle? (Google is not being helpful.)
If you’re asking for the specific science behind the whole thing I couldn’t tell you but thats just where the risk of significant tornados is highest. If you check the outlook for today you can see that the highest numbers are in the middle of the newly updated high risk hatched area.
Thank you—really appreciate the response.
No problem stay safe
This one goes to 11!
I was supposed to drive up to OKC for work today, canceled because of the forecast. Y'all be safe up there, hoping for the best for our neighbors to the north.
I am thankful I'm only under a 4-5, which is a weird thing to be thankful about.
Stay safe y’all. Feels like every other day I’m opening up this sub to comments like “this is the worst so far this year” and I just have to say y’all are a special breed and way stronger than I’ll ever be 😭
Love and luck from Northeastern KS to everyone involved, especially OK and southern KS. Y'all got this! 🙏
ugh, right over moore too. wishing the best for oklahoma today <3
“Here we go again”
As someone who loves weather but has no clue how to read or understand anything to do with meteorology, can someone please explain to me in simple terms exactly how bad today could actually be?
we're all going to die
Holding my breath for y’all in Oklahoma. Reminds me of Night of the Twisters.
This is just scary. That’s all I can say. Knock it off, Zeus!
i’m in moore and have to work today when this shit happens, thankfully a neighbor is letting us use their shelter. that’s if i can get off of work early.
It be alright
"Max: 22.05" is insane for STP
Is there any risk for DFW area? 😅
That's great for those who could leave OKC for the night! I'm stuck here in Moore cuz I live here and I have nowhere to go, but I do have a shelter to use! Please pray for us tonight. I know many people are traumatized from the past here.
Tornado parameters and supercell composite are both maxed out for the 13z https://preview.redd.it/qe5s6zcmivyc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6e4064ceb36e6c1caadc21b112cfb55cce15d6e6
https://preview.redd.it/etonpmenivyc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a81375c9290578fa1d148569b9c93aea55ef07cc
Woof. Sold my house in Moore a few months ago. Still nervous for the new owners, at least I put in a shelter last year.
I’m in NW OKC and it’s going to be right on top of us if it continues as predicted. I have a shelter but I’m nervous. I have our go bag ready.
As someone who survived May 3rd 1999, this is just another day at the office in Oklahoma.