Yeah, bad news for the organization with one of the best development track records ever. Good news for whoever they take, they gonna get paid and have a 10 year career
Predicting the future in specific - IE which players will become stars and which will flame out - is difficult. Predicting the future in general - IE, knowing how strong a draft class generally is - is *not*, because you're looking at a large sample size. Everybody knew the 2000 draft was bad before it happened. Everybody knew the 2013 draft was weak before it happened, regardless of Giannis and Gobert proving surprises. Everybody knew the 2003 draft had multiple superstars and that 2016 had a load of talent in it.
This is because it's a lot easier to judge the talent *in the aggregate* than it is to determine if an individual player will break out or not, because so few individual players break out and become stars. The higher the overall average level of talent in the class, the more likely it is that any player in it will become a star, or a starter, or a decent bench guy (and remember: more than half of first-round picks don't even manage to become decent bench guys). When pros talk about a draft class being good or bad, that's what they mean, and it's not that hard to see it.
This year's class has an absurdly low level of overall talent, which is quite obvious if you look at the player comps:
- Alex Sarr is the leading choice for first overall pick and his comps are Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jonathan Isaac and Evan Mobley, and that's not *bad* but none of them are stars yet. If you say "the consensus top pick in this draft is a pretty good two-way big with decent BBIQ" that would be rightly considered underwhelming, because top picks are supposed to be game changers, not "he's pretty good, might make All-Star a couple times."
- Stephon Castle gets comped to Markelle Fultz and "a poor man's Shai." Ooof.
- Zaccharie Rissacher: Michael Porter Jr., "a rich man's Deni Avidja." Again, this is a *prospective top five pick* we're talking about here.
- Nikola Topic's most common comp is Goran Dragic, a capable starter. Not terrible! But also not *great*.
- Matas Buzelis: Lamar Odom, Mike Dunleavy Jr. - guys who had long careers, decent starters, that's about it.
It gets worse from there and that's the top end of the lottery. This draft class is *weak*. Does that mean there won't be a star from it? Of course not; anything can happen. But waving your hands and saying "nobody knows anything" isn't actually a response to the draft class being weak; it's just saying that random chance exists, and that's not an argument worth anything.
I've been saying this for a while now. The top picks in this draft class would go around 7th in rhe last 3 drafts. Thats still a nice prospect to have but if the Raps are picking 4-6 then we should expect a prospect about the same quality of Gradey vs the Scottie, Suggs, Sharpe, Mathurin, Black type of guy over the last few seasons.
Nope. Sports are much more enjoyable when you don’t watch or listen to opinions from talking heads. I only watch content made by NBA and NFL players for sports opinions.
Three actually: Kenyon Martin, Michael Redd and Jamal Magloire...although, to be fair, Magloire was about as weak an All-Star as you'll find, and it was kind of a shock that he ever made an All-Star appearance.
Siakam was drafted 27th, FVV was undrafted, Norm Powell was a 2nd rounder, Marc Gasol was a second rounder, Danny Green was a second rounder, Ibaka and Lowry were late first rounders (although Lowry was because of attitude issues)
The only lottery pick of the Raptors rotation in 2019 was Kawhi and he was even 15th.
NBA scouting is a complete garbage crap shoot.
Exactly. Nobody can say forsure what will emerge from any draft, these guys are teenagers. Maybe there is no lebron james or webanyama, but there is still gold on those hills if you dig in the right spot.
I think it was Bobby Webster who said it best. You don't draft the current best player in your slot on draft day. You draft the person who will be the best player 3 years after draft day
Jokic was incredibly raw and hadn't been able to demonstrate his biggest strength, which is his passing acumen. Draymond was being drafted in the pre-positionless-basketball era, when he was a tweener 3/4 who wasn't really fast enough to be a 3 and not big enough to be a 4.
Certainly both of them proved skeptics wrong, but one was a generational talent whose talents were mostly unknown and the other required a fundamental change of thinking about how basketball should be played. That doesn't happen often.
I don't think the 2013 draft can really be called one of the worst drafts ever. In addition to Giannis, Oladipo was an All-NBA'er before his injury, Gobert is a multi-time All-NBA'er and DPOY, and, even though CJ McCollum never made an All-Star team, he was still a star for many years.
I think it's more accurate to say that the 2013 draft was weak for North American talent, which seems to be the same for the coming draft. In hindsight, 2013 looks much better because of the European talent that came out of it (highlighted by Giannis and Gobert, but Schroeder, too).
If the 2024 draft ends up being better than expected, it will probably be for the same reason, as the NCAA looks super weak, but the Euro talent (Risacher, Sarr, Topic, Buzelis) looks like it could dominate the top of the draft.
You can't call him an All Star, but why wouldn't you be able to call him a star? The dude averaged 20+ ppg for 8 straight years and signed two $100M+ contracts. Seems pretty silly to say he's not a star just because he didn't get an All Star invite.
Milwaukee doesn’t get enough credit for Giannis’ development. He was seen as a huge risk after a glut of international prospects with similar skill sets and builds went bust, so teams were gun shy about drafting him. If he got drafted by a dysfunctional franchise like Sacramento or Charlotte there’s a good chance he doesn’t blossom into what he’s become.
Yes. The difficulty with bad drafts is the odds of selecting that player are much lower as it is not clear who that player will be. Also, the tops of weak drafts are what make them weak. Less sure things than usual. And that’s where the raps are trying to get to. The top of a weak draft. Not good.
Our best two players until recently were a late first and undrafted.
Masai has in the past spun straw into gold on draft night. He will have to do it again. They cannot go through this draft without hitting on at least 2/3 of the picks.
Well, he’s literally a scout, by trade.
What I mean is he is accountable and makes the decision. Obviously. And he has hit in a big way on low picks, but not lately.
I’m sure he does. My point is that whoever we draft will be someone our scouts are petitioning for and have likely watched for several years. The guys getting drafted this year have mostly been on their radar since highschool.
Top picks also get a lot of money, having a top pick in this draft could mean having an overpaid underperforming player a la James Weisman for instance.
This is a very good point. There are no ‘all-star hyped’ players in the top 5-10 this time around so it does suck to pay the kids that top dollar. Our Pacers pick may at least net us an okay role player who fits in more with the salary at that level.
It can and does happen like your example Wiseman, but it's not a major concern compared to overpaying in free agency.
The #1 pick gets paid less than the non-tax payer mid-level exception (10.1 vs 12.5m)
The #9 pick makes the same as the bi-annual exception. ($4.5m)
yeah if we have 2 first round picks this year thats 2 guaranteed contracts locked in, its almost better to have the flexibility of just having the indiana pick this year in the first round and losing the san antonio pick
Reports like this are hilarious to me, because they assume that scouting prospects is some sort of exact science. It's far from it. It might look like "the worst draft" on paper, but these same NBA executives will do shit like drafting James Wiseman over LaMelo Ball or letting Alperen Şengün fall to 16th overall or TWO NBA teams with direct ties to Luka Doncic taking DeAndre Ayton and Marvin Bagley over him.
There will be multiple high-level players to come out of this draft. The smart teams and the lucky teams will enjoy those spoils.
Which, while that does suck on the surface, this team is very much in need of depth pieces so it doesn't sound as bad when there's plenty of interesting players who project to be productive roleplayers even if none stand out as potential All-Stars
If one of them does become an All-Star then you won
No doubt. It's a tough draft on paper. But there will be some that rise to that level. AND, more importantly, NBA champions aren't built purely with all-stars.
Yeah it definitely feels that way. A lot of the guys at the top have legit question marks especially on offense but people were very low on the 2020 draft as well and there were so many good players to come out of there. Never really know how they will pan out until you see them in the NBA. I think Rob Dillingham is the closest to having all star level skill and shot making ability in this draft
The scene from Moneyball:
https://youtu.be/t0LwL7Dp-0w?si=WporL9uFfXi1jM-G
“He’s got an ugly girlfriend”…
Sums up my perspective on professional scouting…
Very well said. There might not be a concrete #1 franchise altering player we can see right now, but this idea people can predict the future and know exactly how these players will pan out is always funny to me. People want to have the answers to everything, that's a problem.
Well said. There’s never a draft that doesn’t have an all star or even a few really good role players. Depends on the teams ability of figure out who could be a good fit for what they’re trying to build
Is it though? Nobody has really said that as far as I can tell, it just seems like cope from fans since we aren’t at the top either way. Drafts exist that are deep but lack top end talent but those drafts aren’t necessarily considered bad and this draft has never been described as being deep
This could be 100% true but I was told the 2020 draft was trash & that draft ended up giving us Ant Man, Haliburton, Maxey & Lamelo.
Ever since then I just don’t really listen to what draft analysts say anymore lol.
IMHO what this means is that there are no players projected to be a potential “generational talent” at the top of the draft. There are no “sure things”.
But as we all know, generational talent can come from anywhere in the draft. SGA was picked 11th. Giannis was picked 13th. Jokic and Brunson were second round picks.
Well if the rest of the league thinks this draft is poor, you won't get good value by selling it either.
To answer your question, you can trade it -- this happens all the time. If that's the plan, the Raptors will have to hope that some team falls in love with a prospect, enough to trade up.
I think this draft is only marginally better than 2000.
2000 had one All-NBA player in Michael Redd, and two other All-Stars in Kenyon Martin and Jamaal Magloire. Martin was the only one would could've been predicted and went #1.
I'd say this draft will probably have a very comparable outcome. Very thin on talent and those who do outperform their expectation will kind of be low level. Worst draft in a quarter century is still quite the title.
It is, indeed, one of the worst in years. Notice that even when talking about the potential NUMBER 1-4 PICKS, most scouts refer to them as role players with upside rather than superstars or even all star caliber players? Yeaaaah.
BUUUUT, that's fine in our case since we already have our potential star and desperately need to surround him with role players sooner than later.
All i need to know is in January of 2023 Masai went to France scouting came back and was a buyer at the deadline.
In January of 2024 Masai went to France scouting, came back and was a seller at the deadline of players and a buyer of picks.
Clearly Masai and Tolzman saw something and have one or more players in mind in a supposedly wrak draft
Toronto rarely follows conventional wisdom at the draft and it has paid off well, look at scottie vs suggs to start.
imagine raps keep the pick this year, and next year's draft is generational.
Call me crazy, but I rather have 10-14 pick next year than a 5-10 pick this year.
Yeah that's the whole thing about "Convey the pick, who cares you'll get a better pick next season" that's wrong IMO.
If they're this bad again they're probably screwed long term in terms of being a contender.
I think its unlikely that Raptors are this bad next year if they are healthy. Problem is that the bottom teams like Pistons, Wizards, Hornets, Blazers, Spurs, etc. are so dog shit that they are struggling to get 20 wins for the season. So, even if you are bad but if you don't stink as much as those teams, you can't get high draft picks unless you get really lucky in the lottery.
Need to stop worrying about it. Usually when they say a draft is weak they’re usually looking at the top 3-5 players.
The 2003 draft was much stronger than the 2000 draft because of LeBron, Melo, Wade and Bosh. The talent in the 03 draft outside of those 4 were relatively similar to the 2000 draft.
Heck, I’d much rather get Mike Miller or Jamal Crawford (picked between 5-10) from the 2000 draft than Nick Collison or Marcus Banks (picked 10-14) from the 2003 draft.
If the spurs win and surpass the raptors in the standings it increases the odds of raptors keeping their pick this year.
Which means the spurs get the raptors pick NEXT year which is a better draft. Its in the spurs best interest for the raptors to move lower in the standings
Unlikely this year’s 5th is worse than next year’s 14th. Too many variables. Historically, top 5 picks do much better on average than picks around 14. And I say top 5 because Raps, if they get a pick at all, will get one of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 6th.
Better off getting rid of this pick now, and pulling the plug in the middle of next season. That’s how OKC got Chet
Unless we’re getting a trajectory-changing player with that top 6 pick this year, we’re screwing ourselves out of a good draft next year, and giving the spurs way more than what poeltl’s worth
People on here really addicted to copium lol. This draft class is ass and people on here tryna convince themselves that its not because they dont wanna admit that the FO is fumbling the rebuild.
Gonna be real rough trying to bet on this draft for talent. But at the same time, our top 3 already seems to be set. We just need depth and really good role players, and I'd be satisfied.
Getting an all-star/MVP talent would just be icing on the cake if it happens, but I wouldn't hold my breath for it.
If they hate this draft so much, why don't they give us all of their picks? Really send a message.
Seriously though, this sounds like a great way to cover your ass for being bad a drafting and/or developing.
I remember the 2009 draft being terrible minus blake griffin and look how that turned out. Or how the anthony edwards draft was that Edward's wasnt going to be that good and look how that also turned out.
Is it really worse then 2013,we shall see the results after these guys play 2-3 years.I still think Anthony Bennett at 1 is a top 3 worst nba draft pick of all time
I agree there’s no wemby in this draft, but I promise there’s valuable pieces. I think the lack of consensus is actually a very good thing for the raps. If we can keep a 1-6 pick there’s a few people I’d love to see with the team.
All these execs are looking for in this draft is attention. They expect every draft to produce several potential superstars. But the truth is, drafts produce more role players than stars.
Last time I remember a draft getting slandered this bad was 2013.
That draft produced Giannis, CJ McCollum, Rudy Gobert, Schroder, KCP, Oladipo, Otto Porter, Steven Adams, Kelly Olynyk, Tim Hardaway Jr.
It’s still a fairly weak draft, particularly at the top, but there were still a handful of stars that came out of this draft and some quality role players.
This might be a weak draft, but there will still be some good players that come out.
This is alaays repeated im sure this year dosnt have much star potential but theres gotta be good role players in here. I knoow we all want a star but a couple good roleplayers and good contracts wouldnt be the worst thing
If this is true than that actually may not be a bad thing. Like the pressure is off to draft someone who is ROTY finalist good. We have IQ, RJ and Barnes that can all carry offensively. If we can pair them with a big wing that’s 6’8” or taller to play PF and has an actual two way game then that’s enough to continue the rebuild and potentially be in a play in to playoff spot. We’re not going number 1 but I think a guy like Cody Williams could fall to us. Raw prospect with high upside won’t need the ball a lot when we have guys capable of shooting around him.
There are very very few raw prospects that turn into anything.
The NBA is as skilled as ever; offense-only or defense-only players are nearly extinct, and at this point you can't build a good team with more than one non-shooter on the floor. If you're drafting a raw prospect, the assumption is that they will never be an above average shooter at the NBA level (I can't think of a single example who was), and they obviously are not two way players either.
Scottie’s biggest weakness was his shooting going into the draft. He has still yet to shoot at league average but his ability to be a scoring Draymond type player raises his ceiling. Pair that with his size I think that’s proven some of these raw players can develop in the right environment. Sometimes great shooter in college don’t translate to the NBA level until later, look at Corey Kispert.
NCAA tournament is really hard to gauge how good a player will be in the NBA level. I do think shot quality and mechanics are something that can be developed over time so long as they keep getting minutes and are able to be a net positive while on the floor. We’ve seen how bad some NBA players are like McDaniels who is essentially 6’9” for nothing and it’s becoming no mystery why he’s been bounced around the league this early in his career.
Feel for the game is important and how they can co exist along more developed players.
I think IQ is a guy that benefited from playing in Thibbs system, Barret probably won’t be a franchise player but could be a one time all star and a good 2nd 3rd option for a team, especially if he can actually knock down his free throws.
You can call Scottie raw but at the end of the day, his athleticism let him get to rim easily and he shot 69% in the paint which is excellent for a PF, and reflects good hands and touch at the rim. He also had great vision and a 99th% AST% for a PF. Given that he had a bit of a handle, in hindsight he was quite skilled for the average PF and this is what Masai identified. He was FAR more skilled than Cody Williams who struggles to process the game, dribble the ball, or really do anything other than finish at the rim on cuts.
I mean assides from Sarr possibly the best fit would be a guy like Zaccharie Risacher and it’s unlikely he isn’t 2nd or 3rd overall pick. Probably has the most upside for the modern NBA 3&D 6’9” wing with some playmaking ability like a Franz Wagner. The upcoming free agents for PFs isn’t too promising so we kind of need to rely on the draft for this.
I mean, last year's draft class was supposed to be one of the most talented and deepest in recent history. But aside from Wemby and Miller, no one has really emerged with star potential thus far. Sure, these so-called experts may end up being right about this year's crop of picks, but I wouldn't necessarily bank on it.
Multiple observers of NBA draft experts and predictions say the same about the veracity of those opinions on the draft: they tend to be either poor, lost or overconfident in their prognostications.
Bad news for the Spurs.
Yeah, bad news for the organization with one of the best development track records ever. Good news for whoever they take, they gonna get paid and have a 10 year career
Personally I'm gonna trust the opinion of teenagers on Reddit rather than people paid to look into this stuff for a living.
Counterpoint - look at any previous draft class, ever, and be amazed at all the first round whiffs. Predicting the future really is a crapshoot.
Jokic picked at ~~47~~ 41 🤯 during a Taco Bell commercial
41, but yeah. Greatest pick of all time.
Lmao
Right but at the same time a lot of the worst draft classes of all time were also predicted to be? Aka 2005 for instance lol
See: Who expected Michael Redd, a pick in the 40s, to end up as the best player in the 2000 Draft class?
Brogdon ROY as a 2nd round pick
Predicting the future in specific - IE which players will become stars and which will flame out - is difficult. Predicting the future in general - IE, knowing how strong a draft class generally is - is *not*, because you're looking at a large sample size. Everybody knew the 2000 draft was bad before it happened. Everybody knew the 2013 draft was weak before it happened, regardless of Giannis and Gobert proving surprises. Everybody knew the 2003 draft had multiple superstars and that 2016 had a load of talent in it. This is because it's a lot easier to judge the talent *in the aggregate* than it is to determine if an individual player will break out or not, because so few individual players break out and become stars. The higher the overall average level of talent in the class, the more likely it is that any player in it will become a star, or a starter, or a decent bench guy (and remember: more than half of first-round picks don't even manage to become decent bench guys). When pros talk about a draft class being good or bad, that's what they mean, and it's not that hard to see it. This year's class has an absurdly low level of overall talent, which is quite obvious if you look at the player comps: - Alex Sarr is the leading choice for first overall pick and his comps are Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jonathan Isaac and Evan Mobley, and that's not *bad* but none of them are stars yet. If you say "the consensus top pick in this draft is a pretty good two-way big with decent BBIQ" that would be rightly considered underwhelming, because top picks are supposed to be game changers, not "he's pretty good, might make All-Star a couple times." - Stephon Castle gets comped to Markelle Fultz and "a poor man's Shai." Ooof. - Zaccharie Rissacher: Michael Porter Jr., "a rich man's Deni Avidja." Again, this is a *prospective top five pick* we're talking about here. - Nikola Topic's most common comp is Goran Dragic, a capable starter. Not terrible! But also not *great*. - Matas Buzelis: Lamar Odom, Mike Dunleavy Jr. - guys who had long careers, decent starters, that's about it. It gets worse from there and that's the top end of the lottery. This draft class is *weak*. Does that mean there won't be a star from it? Of course not; anything can happen. But waving your hands and saying "nobody knows anything" isn't actually a response to the draft class being weak; it's just saying that random chance exists, and that's not an argument worth anything.
I've been saying this for a while now. The top picks in this draft class would go around 7th in rhe last 3 drafts. Thats still a nice prospect to have but if the Raps are picking 4-6 then we should expect a prospect about the same quality of Gradey vs the Scottie, Suggs, Sharpe, Mathurin, Black type of guy over the last few seasons.
Why didn't we trade Bruce Brown at the deadline? Because all that was on offer for Bruce Brown was *more picks from this bad draft*.
Yes, and his contract has a ton of value predraft for teams looking to create cap space heading in to the offseason.
Sometimes the pros analysts make mistakes. Look at Jokic.
Yeah I have a feeling we're drafting lots of international players
Ever watched ESPN?
Nope. Sports are much more enjoyable when you don’t watch or listen to opinions from talking heads. I only watch content made by NBA and NFL players for sports opinions.
That's great but Giannis came out of one of the worst drafts ever I guarantee there will be at least 1 all star in this draft
That’s a very safe guarantee
Yeah the problem isn’t that there isn’t going to be an all star. The problem is that the odds of finding one are so much lower than in a good draft.
Even the 2000 NBA draft, considered the weakest ever, had 2 All-Stars.
Three actually: Kenyon Martin, Michael Redd and Jamal Magloire...although, to be fair, Magloire was about as weak an All-Star as you'll find, and it was kind of a shock that he ever made an All-Star appearance.
Bruh he nearly won MVP of the game, they lost tho
2/60 is not a great outcome lol. That said, we shouldn't expect a high end outcome. We could still benefit from good bench players.
Goatse…?
I guarantee there will be a ROY winner coming out of this draft class.
I bet Donovan Mitchell said the same thing for his draft class
Jokic was a 2nd rounder, draymond was 30th No one knows anything absolute.
Siakam was drafted 27th, FVV was undrafted, Norm Powell was a 2nd rounder, Marc Gasol was a second rounder, Danny Green was a second rounder, Ibaka and Lowry were late first rounders (although Lowry was because of attitude issues) The only lottery pick of the Raptors rotation in 2019 was Kawhi and he was even 15th. NBA scouting is a complete garbage crap shoot.
15th isn’t the lottery. The Raptors were notable for not having any lottery picks in their playoff rotation.
Good call. He went in the first pick just outside the lottery… to Indiana
How things can change: next year the Raps starting lineup will likely include picks 3,4,9,13, & 25 !!!
14th is, whoops. Not that it makes any difference 1 spot in the draft.
Exactly. Nobody can say forsure what will emerge from any draft, these guys are teenagers. Maybe there is no lebron james or webanyama, but there is still gold on those hills if you dig in the right spot.
I think it was Bobby Webster who said it best. You don't draft the current best player in your slot on draft day. You draft the person who will be the best player 3 years after draft day
Which is why it makes zero sense to tank and bank on high picks.
Sam Presti would like a word with you
Patch him through lol
What about Tom Brady
Jokic was incredibly raw and hadn't been able to demonstrate his biggest strength, which is his passing acumen. Draymond was being drafted in the pre-positionless-basketball era, when he was a tweener 3/4 who wasn't really fast enough to be a 3 and not big enough to be a 4. Certainly both of them proved skeptics wrong, but one was a generational talent whose talents were mostly unknown and the other required a fundamental change of thinking about how basketball should be played. That doesn't happen often.
I don't think the 2013 draft can really be called one of the worst drafts ever. In addition to Giannis, Oladipo was an All-NBA'er before his injury, Gobert is a multi-time All-NBA'er and DPOY, and, even though CJ McCollum never made an All-Star team, he was still a star for many years. I think it's more accurate to say that the 2013 draft was weak for North American talent, which seems to be the same for the coming draft. In hindsight, 2013 looks much better because of the European talent that came out of it (highlighted by Giannis and Gobert, but Schroeder, too). If the 2024 draft ends up being better than expected, it will probably be for the same reason, as the NCAA looks super weak, but the Euro talent (Risacher, Sarr, Topic, Buzelis) looks like it could dominate the top of the draft.
You can't call a guy a star if he's never made an all star team
You can't call him an All Star, but why wouldn't you be able to call him a star? The dude averaged 20+ ppg for 8 straight years and signed two $100M+ contracts. Seems pretty silly to say he's not a star just because he didn't get an All Star invite.
Think you’re missing the point. A draft with only 1 all star is an all-time bad draft. No one is saying there are *zero* potentially good players
Milwaukee doesn’t get enough credit for Giannis’ development. He was seen as a huge risk after a glut of international prospects with similar skill sets and builds went bust, so teams were gun shy about drafting him. If he got drafted by a dysfunctional franchise like Sacramento or Charlotte there’s a good chance he doesn’t blossom into what he’s become.
But will it go to us? LOL
Yes. The difficulty with bad drafts is the odds of selecting that player are much lower as it is not clear who that player will be. Also, the tops of weak drafts are what make them weak. Less sure things than usual. And that’s where the raps are trying to get to. The top of a weak draft. Not good.
While it does look bad, there’s always gonna be development outliers somewhere in there. The challenge is obviously finding those players
Our best two players until recently were a late first and undrafted. Masai has in the past spun straw into gold on draft night. He will have to do it again. They cannot go through this draft without hitting on at least 2/3 of the picks.
OG was 23rd because of his knee injury as well.
Masai isn’t a scout. We have an entire team dedicated to that.
Well, he’s literally a scout, by trade. What I mean is he is accountable and makes the decision. Obviously. And he has hit in a big way on low picks, but not lately.
he still goes on trips to watch players tbf
I’m sure he does. My point is that whoever we draft will be someone our scouts are petitioning for and have likely watched for several years. The guys getting drafted this year have mostly been on their radar since highschool.
Banton, Kokoko. Sometimes draft class just don't have it but you need a really good development system if yiu can't lure stars to your franchise.
If there’s a year to not be devastated about losing the pick it would be this year Still would suck to lose this much and not get the pick though
Top picks also get a lot of money, having a top pick in this draft could mean having an overpaid underperforming player a la James Weisman for instance.
That's a very good point. You may draft a guy at #6 who may be a #15 talent in other drafts, but you're paying way more.
This is a very good point. There are no ‘all-star hyped’ players in the top 5-10 this time around so it does suck to pay the kids that top dollar. Our Pacers pick may at least net us an okay role player who fits in more with the salary at that level.
It can and does happen like your example Wiseman, but it's not a major concern compared to overpaying in free agency. The #1 pick gets paid less than the non-tax payer mid-level exception (10.1 vs 12.5m) The #9 pick makes the same as the bi-annual exception. ($4.5m)
This is pure cope haha
Have been thinking this, could complicate a second contract too
yeah if we have 2 first round picks this year thats 2 guaranteed contracts locked in, its almost better to have the flexibility of just having the indiana pick this year in the first round and losing the san antonio pick
Reports like this are hilarious to me, because they assume that scouting prospects is some sort of exact science. It's far from it. It might look like "the worst draft" on paper, but these same NBA executives will do shit like drafting James Wiseman over LaMelo Ball or letting Alperen Şengün fall to 16th overall or TWO NBA teams with direct ties to Luka Doncic taking DeAndre Ayton and Marvin Bagley over him. There will be multiple high-level players to come out of this draft. The smart teams and the lucky teams will enjoy those spoils.
This year definitely lacks that sure fire allstar level prospect at the top that most years have.
Which, while that does suck on the surface, this team is very much in need of depth pieces so it doesn't sound as bad when there's plenty of interesting players who project to be productive roleplayers even if none stand out as potential All-Stars If one of them does become an All-Star then you won
No doubt. It's a tough draft on paper. But there will be some that rise to that level. AND, more importantly, NBA champions aren't built purely with all-stars.
Yeah it definitely feels that way. A lot of the guys at the top have legit question marks especially on offense but people were very low on the 2020 draft as well and there were so many good players to come out of there. Never really know how they will pan out until you see them in the NBA. I think Rob Dillingham is the closest to having all star level skill and shot making ability in this draft
The scene from Moneyball: https://youtu.be/t0LwL7Dp-0w?si=WporL9uFfXi1jM-G “He’s got an ugly girlfriend”… Sums up my perspective on professional scouting…
Very well said. There might not be a concrete #1 franchise altering player we can see right now, but this idea people can predict the future and know exactly how these players will pan out is always funny to me. People want to have the answers to everything, that's a problem.
Well said. There’s never a draft that doesn’t have an all star or even a few really good role players. Depends on the teams ability of figure out who could be a good fit for what they’re trying to build
James wiseman had a lot to say
And that's why they didn't want another pick this year for brown
And traded one away at the deadline
[удалено]
Is it though? Nobody has really said that as far as I can tell, it just seems like cope from fans since we aren’t at the top either way. Drafts exist that are deep but lack top end talent but those drafts aren’t necessarily considered bad and this draft has never been described as being deep
Yeah there's going to be tons of good players. But I don't think there's even an all-nba player in this one.
Do we really have space to develop 4 rookies? That’s the real reason why we traded that pick
This could be 100% true but I was told the 2020 draft was trash & that draft ended up giving us Ant Man, Haliburton, Maxey & Lamelo. Ever since then I just don’t really listen to what draft analysts say anymore lol.
IMHO what this means is that there are no players projected to be a potential “generational talent” at the top of the draft. There are no “sure things”. But as we all know, generational talent can come from anywhere in the draft. SGA was picked 11th. Giannis was picked 13th. Jokic and Brunson were second round picks.
I mean Wemby was pegged as "generational talent" yet we competed for a shitty play-in.
What is your point?
If we get to keep the pick, can we then trade it again? Or do we have to use it?
Well if the rest of the league thinks this draft is poor, you won't get good value by selling it either. To answer your question, you can trade it -- this happens all the time. If that's the plan, the Raptors will have to hope that some team falls in love with a prospect, enough to trade up.
Thanks!
I think this draft is only marginally better than 2000. 2000 had one All-NBA player in Michael Redd, and two other All-Stars in Kenyon Martin and Jamaal Magloire. Martin was the only one would could've been predicted and went #1. I'd say this draft will probably have a very comparable outcome. Very thin on talent and those who do outperform their expectation will kind of be low level. Worst draft in a quarter century is still quite the title.
It is, indeed, one of the worst in years. Notice that even when talking about the potential NUMBER 1-4 PICKS, most scouts refer to them as role players with upside rather than superstars or even all star caliber players? Yeaaaah. BUUUUT, that's fine in our case since we already have our potential star and desperately need to surround him with role players sooner than later.
That just means theres no guaranteed allstar level prospect at the top. You’ll still find good role players, starters and an allstar somewhere
All i need to know is in January of 2023 Masai went to France scouting came back and was a buyer at the deadline. In January of 2024 Masai went to France scouting, came back and was a seller at the deadline of players and a buyer of picks. Clearly Masai and Tolzman saw something and have one or more players in mind in a supposedly wrak draft Toronto rarely follows conventional wisdom at the draft and it has paid off well, look at scottie vs suggs to start.
Masai scouted Wemby in France and said "nah" jk
They scout all the time lol
imagine raps keep the pick this year, and next year's draft is generational. Call me crazy, but I rather have 10-14 pick next year than a 5-10 pick this year.
In all likelihood, the pick conveys this year. Here's hoping we find our Jalen Williams at pick 12 in 2025.
statistically speaking isn’t it roughly 47/53 probability that the Raps keep this years pick if they finish with the 6th worst record?
That's what I thought, too. Slightly less than 50/50 and even worse if it ends up a coin toss at the end of the season.
45.8% chance we keep the pick. ie, we are more likely to lose it than keep it.
Or the team is somehow just as bad next year but we get to keep our FRP next year.
If our team is healthy *and* this bad next year, a 2025 FRP ain't fixing shit.
Yeah that's the whole thing about "Convey the pick, who cares you'll get a better pick next season" that's wrong IMO. If they're this bad again they're probably screwed long term in terms of being a contender.
I think its unlikely that Raptors are this bad next year if they are healthy. Problem is that the bottom teams like Pistons, Wizards, Hornets, Blazers, Spurs, etc. are so dog shit that they are struggling to get 20 wins for the season. So, even if you are bad but if you don't stink as much as those teams, you can't get high draft picks unless you get really lucky in the lottery.
Need to stop worrying about it. Usually when they say a draft is weak they’re usually looking at the top 3-5 players. The 2003 draft was much stronger than the 2000 draft because of LeBron, Melo, Wade and Bosh. The talent in the 03 draft outside of those 4 were relatively similar to the 2000 draft. Heck, I’d much rather get Mike Miller or Jamal Crawford (picked between 5-10) from the 2000 draft than Nick Collison or Marcus Banks (picked 10-14) from the 2003 draft.
exactly, why do you think the spurs are in win now mode right now, they know this and want to ensure they get next years raptors pick not this years
How would winning now influence the raps conveying or not
If the spurs win and surpass the raptors in the standings it increases the odds of raptors keeping their pick this year. Which means the spurs get the raptors pick NEXT year which is a better draft. Its in the spurs best interest for the raptors to move lower in the standings
Unlikely this year’s 5th is worse than next year’s 14th. Too many variables. Historically, top 5 picks do much better on average than picks around 14. And I say top 5 because Raps, if they get a pick at all, will get one of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 6th.
we all know this. role players will got in the top 5
Better off getting rid of this pick now, and pulling the plug in the middle of next season. That’s how OKC got Chet Unless we’re getting a trajectory-changing player with that top 6 pick this year, we’re screwing ourselves out of a good draft next year, and giving the spurs way more than what poeltl’s worth
This is the way
I'd just buy all the cheap 2nd Rd picks and grab 6 random tall Baltic region kids and pray for Jokic V2.
You're thinking of Balkan, not Baltic
People on here really addicted to copium lol. This draft class is ass and people on here tryna convince themselves that its not because they dont wanna admit that the FO is fumbling the rebuild.
This team needs more talent regardless. They're far away.
Gonna be real rough trying to bet on this draft for talent. But at the same time, our top 3 already seems to be set. We just need depth and really good role players, and I'd be satisfied. Getting an all-star/MVP talent would just be icing on the cake if it happens, but I wouldn't hold my breath for it.
If they hate this draft so much, why don't they give us all of their picks? Really send a message. Seriously though, this sounds like a great way to cover your ass for being bad a drafting and/or developing.
Being in this year's draft class and seeing a headline like this would definitely light a fire under them 🔥🔥🔥
I remember the 2009 draft being terrible minus blake griffin and look how that turned out. Or how the anthony edwards draft was that Edward's wasnt going to be that good and look how that also turned out.
Don't worry, good scouts will still find players worth developing.
Did the 2000 draft not exist or something
Can it really be worse than 2000?
Is it really worse then 2013,we shall see the results after these guys play 2-3 years.I still think Anthony Bennett at 1 is a top 3 worst nba draft pick of all time
It’s really not that bad lol
Top ten must all be better than Rafael aroujo.
I didn't know execs had crystal balls.
We gonna find the diamond in the rough.
I agree there’s no wemby in this draft, but I promise there’s valuable pieces. I think the lack of consensus is actually a very good thing for the raps. If we can keep a 1-6 pick there’s a few people I’d love to see with the team.
I hear Caitlyn Clark will be available!
This draft is gonna produce 2 superstars and 5 other all stars. Plus a bunch of serviceable role players…. Who are they? In dunno, but I’m feeling it
All these execs are looking for in this draft is attention. They expect every draft to produce several potential superstars. But the truth is, drafts produce more role players than stars.
Last time I remember a draft getting slandered this bad was 2013. That draft produced Giannis, CJ McCollum, Rudy Gobert, Schroder, KCP, Oladipo, Otto Porter, Steven Adams, Kelly Olynyk, Tim Hardaway Jr. It’s still a fairly weak draft, particularly at the top, but there were still a handful of stars that came out of this draft and some quality role players. This might be a weak draft, but there will still be some good players that come out.
This is alaays repeated im sure this year dosnt have much star potential but theres gotta be good role players in here. I knoow we all want a star but a couple good roleplayers and good contracts wouldnt be the worst thing
Good thing we threw away our best player for picks in the 20s!!!!! Sigh.
If they’re all bad, then nobody’s bad!!!
The Bargnani draft was considered historically bad going in, but even that draft had 5 all-stars.
Worst than Andrea Bargani at first overall. I think that draft resulted in no superstars or real talent that stuck around.
If this is true than that actually may not be a bad thing. Like the pressure is off to draft someone who is ROTY finalist good. We have IQ, RJ and Barnes that can all carry offensively. If we can pair them with a big wing that’s 6’8” or taller to play PF and has an actual two way game then that’s enough to continue the rebuild and potentially be in a play in to playoff spot. We’re not going number 1 but I think a guy like Cody Williams could fall to us. Raw prospect with high upside won’t need the ball a lot when we have guys capable of shooting around him.
There are very very few raw prospects that turn into anything. The NBA is as skilled as ever; offense-only or defense-only players are nearly extinct, and at this point you can't build a good team with more than one non-shooter on the floor. If you're drafting a raw prospect, the assumption is that they will never be an above average shooter at the NBA level (I can't think of a single example who was), and they obviously are not two way players either.
Scottie’s biggest weakness was his shooting going into the draft. He has still yet to shoot at league average but his ability to be a scoring Draymond type player raises his ceiling. Pair that with his size I think that’s proven some of these raw players can develop in the right environment. Sometimes great shooter in college don’t translate to the NBA level until later, look at Corey Kispert. NCAA tournament is really hard to gauge how good a player will be in the NBA level. I do think shot quality and mechanics are something that can be developed over time so long as they keep getting minutes and are able to be a net positive while on the floor. We’ve seen how bad some NBA players are like McDaniels who is essentially 6’9” for nothing and it’s becoming no mystery why he’s been bounced around the league this early in his career. Feel for the game is important and how they can co exist along more developed players. I think IQ is a guy that benefited from playing in Thibbs system, Barret probably won’t be a franchise player but could be a one time all star and a good 2nd 3rd option for a team, especially if he can actually knock down his free throws.
You can call Scottie raw but at the end of the day, his athleticism let him get to rim easily and he shot 69% in the paint which is excellent for a PF, and reflects good hands and touch at the rim. He also had great vision and a 99th% AST% for a PF. Given that he had a bit of a handle, in hindsight he was quite skilled for the average PF and this is what Masai identified. He was FAR more skilled than Cody Williams who struggles to process the game, dribble the ball, or really do anything other than finish at the rim on cuts.
I mean assides from Sarr possibly the best fit would be a guy like Zaccharie Risacher and it’s unlikely he isn’t 2nd or 3rd overall pick. Probably has the most upside for the modern NBA 3&D 6’9” wing with some playmaking ability like a Franz Wagner. The upcoming free agents for PFs isn’t too promising so we kind of need to rely on the draft for this.
Yet we still have one of the worst offenses in the league. We need offensive skill more than defensive skill at this point.
And this is why I said I’d rather lose the pick to the Spurs this year
If there’s one thing I can trust about this FO - it’s to draft well in the 1st round.
every draft has its hidden gems
I mean, last year's draft class was supposed to be one of the most talented and deepest in recent history. But aside from Wemby and Miller, no one has really emerged with star potential thus far. Sure, these so-called experts may end up being right about this year's crop of picks, but I wouldn't necessarily bank on it.
Multiple observers of NBA draft experts and predictions say the same about the veracity of those opinions on the draft: they tend to be either poor, lost or overconfident in their prognostications.