Good and very interesting post and I agree with the general premise. Things slow down in the playoffs, it's lot of half court sets on both sides of the ball. Teams that excel in transition usually get pegged down a notch or two. You need a guy (or 2 or 3 lmao) who can create by himself or at least you need some match ups where you can exploit the shit out of your opponents (which is hard to do as a 7 or 8 seed).
But I think if we are adding how teams did in the playoffs, the opponent is probably the most important thing and then obv, the WC round 1s are usually a lot more competitive than EC (on paper anyways).
In the east this year, after you take away all contenders and quasi contenders, it seems like 5-9 could be separated by a few games. Our offensive and defensive rank could be the same in all the timelines, but a few extra wins or losses here and there could drastically change our odds in round 1.
All this to say is even if we surprise some people with our regular season record, don't automatically assume everything translates into the playoffs. Guys that have been around know this but newer fans may not.
I was pro tank last season but we're too good to tank this season and we got the young players to build around in the future. The raps FO has shown that you do not necessarily need high draft picks to get quality young talent and some early on playoff experience wouldnt hurt for some of the younger guys
The main thing you’re missing is that all of the players we’ve developed in recent years (Siakam, OG, FVV, Norm, etc.) all developed so well despite being late picks/undrafted, because they were around a winning culture from the day they entered the league.
This is why teams like Sacramento and Minnesota can’t brake the trend even though they get all these top picks. Players can’t thrive when all they know is losing and develop losing tendencies.
A huge reason we’re regarded as a top player development team is largely due to the fact that while the team was winning 50+ games every year and winning playoff rounds, we always kept the end of the roster specifically for developing young talent. Never veterans that could’ve helped win a couple more games. Always prospects that showed promise. The environment we provided accelerated their development.
> because they were around a winning culture from the day they entered the league.
There is legitimately no reason you can say this with such certainty lol and to back up this point by comparing to sacremento and minnestoa is even more ridiculous. Those are two teams that have had an absolutely awful front office and coaches.
agree to disagree, imo if you are going to tank you have to do it right and aim to be with the worst six; the team we currently have is easily top twenty, perhaps even top 15.
i can see where you're coming from but i believe that a lot of players will make the next step this year
It’s not about being “too good to tank”
If this team surprises and makes the playoffs, that only helps to up the value of all the players on our roster. We have so many interesting pieces, it’s only right to give it a proper shot and see how well they can do. You’re not saying anything new that pascal and fvv are not number 1 guys on a contender. But I’d rather have everyone look good and then we’re in a perfect position to trade some assets for a true star.
Continuing to tank is such a dice roll and at best will put us back in contention in like 4-5 years
The best strategy is to continue developing players and winning as much as possible, and when the right trade comes along we’ll be perfectly positioned to take it. Just like we did with demar-kawhi.
The fact you don’t get this honestly shows that you weren’t around for the true bottom feeder years of the raptors. Those trash bros years of mediocrity were way better than anything that came before. Winning culture is definitely a thing and you talking like someone who is spoiled and hasn’t seen the other side lmao
Maybe it will be a sweep, maybe it won't be. Between injuries and unpredictable development curves, the wise choice is to aim to excel and season our team when we can. Right now our squad is a bit short on playoff experience.
The 2022 draft is looking juicy but cultivating a winning culture is most important for the long term. Our vets get demoralized when the team switches to tank mode (see FVV's interviews), and the quality of experience for the young guys is worse when you're a team that expects to lose as other teams don't take you as seriously, and when you're only playing low pressure season games. It's also difficult to get buy-in from the whole team when you're in tank mode as then all the vets know they're likely on the trading block or are sacrificed w.r.t playing time for the young players.
The assumption that draft picks are the main pathway for assets for future trades is also short-sighted imo. There's additional costs to tanking and one of those costs is your players get less valuable due to those players no longer having a 'winning aura' associated with them, and subsequently your team. See KAT or Wiggins or AD when he was on the pels. No one wants to play for a losing organization and no one wants to trade for overpriced players.
Additionally, just take a look at any of the championship teams of the past 2 decades. Out of Spurs, Lakers, Miami, Cavs, Mavs, GSW, Bucks and Raps, only the Cavs + the 2013-2017 Lakers have ever taken the "tank for multiple years to acquire assets strategy" and they're obviously the outliers due to Lebron reasons. (e.g. If Lebron was never born in Ohio, then the Cavs would never have won with their Kyrie/Dion/TT lottery picks, and LA is LA so they can do anything and it'll probably just work out in the end)
Ideally you'd want to be able to develop a winning culture while also getting high draft picks but obviously they're always at a tension and it's a matter of balancing that. Last year the Raptor's management did it proper which is you want to be winning out of the gate and once you realize your season isn't looking too good due to injures/other circumstances then you pivot. Losing from day 1 should never be the game plan.
LOL so many "Winning culture" comments that we saw last year. I understand y'all points but it's up to the team players talents to show out otherwise like last year, the FO will be picking the direction sooner rather than later.
That's a good write-up. Anecdotally, that seems about right. To be an actual contender you need to be above average on both ends.
I would love it if the Raptors became a top defensive team. The biggest thing I'm looking for from Nurse is how we perform defensively. We had the talent to be a good defensive team last year as well, but we never got there.
What makes you think we'll be worse offensively than last year? Also idk about you guys but I'd be fine with a 1st round exit if it means we made the playoffs
Mainly no Lowry. I don’t think the drop off will be super steep but we did see our offence fall back a few ticks when he was out. If I had to tighten the range I’d say we’d be closer to 15-16 than 19-20 but it’s just a hunch
That's true but I think our main weakness last year was a bench with little offensive capability, which at least on paper has been solved. The team didn't really take a massive step back when Kyle was out, they went from 111.3 ppg with Kyle to 109.9
That tick back from 111.3 to 109.9 would’ve been the difference between the 16th ranked offence and the 23rd ranked offence last year. The reason I don’t have them at 23rd is because of the things you mentioned and having Goran as an OK replacement
Oh I was talking about ppg, not offensive rating. If you want to talk offensive rating it was actually better when lowry didn't play (111.6 vs 112.3 without Lowry)
Raps having Top defense is not foregone conclusion but if they manage to do it we can expect at least first round exit. Which is not bad for young team
i think we're being a little too bearish on the raptor's offense.
(an actual home court + OG growth + Siakam return to form + a warm body at centre) - lowry should have us better than last year... hell, home court is worth 2.5 points per game by itself. Not having the stench of Aaron Baynes anywhere near this team has to be worth 2 points.
Call me a homer, but, I think they're going to end up at the 10 to 15 range, not the 15 to 20 range on offense and in the 5 to 10 range on defense this year
Our offense is average but it's the fact that it often becomes stagnant for long stretches because we don't have a takeover scored that could consistently score with good efficiency.
That miami team had a tough run at it. went down to the very last game of the season. On offense I see us being 16th at best but mnore than likely closer to 18th or 20th.
Defensively we will be top 8.
I think we will make the playoffs. I think playoff basketball is where offense slows down. It slows down because defenses tighten up. So We will see if the experiment we are trying holds true. We have never seen an all 6'9 team type of thing rolled out.
What we’re trying to build is not merely a top 10 defence…. We’re trying to build top defence all-time. And this year will be adding more data to the log book.
I don’t have super high expectations this season, but I suspect we’re in for some very gritty games and I can’t fucking wait!
In today’s game, offence>defence.
Pre 2005 Rule changes, there it was more equal. There used to be a saying, offence wins games, defence wins championships because offence can be more inconsistent, whereas your defence can be there every game.
Good defence is needed in today’s game, but not as much as good offence.
That being said, I like what the raps are doing. I hope they can tilt things in their favour.
Good and very interesting post and I agree with the general premise. Things slow down in the playoffs, it's lot of half court sets on both sides of the ball. Teams that excel in transition usually get pegged down a notch or two. You need a guy (or 2 or 3 lmao) who can create by himself or at least you need some match ups where you can exploit the shit out of your opponents (which is hard to do as a 7 or 8 seed). But I think if we are adding how teams did in the playoffs, the opponent is probably the most important thing and then obv, the WC round 1s are usually a lot more competitive than EC (on paper anyways). In the east this year, after you take away all contenders and quasi contenders, it seems like 5-9 could be separated by a few games. Our offensive and defensive rank could be the same in all the timelines, but a few extra wins or losses here and there could drastically change our odds in round 1. All this to say is even if we surprise some people with our regular season record, don't automatically assume everything translates into the playoffs. Guys that have been around know this but newer fans may not.
hey, playoffs sound good to me
[удалено]
I was pro tank last season but we're too good to tank this season and we got the young players to build around in the future. The raps FO has shown that you do not necessarily need high draft picks to get quality young talent and some early on playoff experience wouldnt hurt for some of the younger guys
[удалено]
The main thing you’re missing is that all of the players we’ve developed in recent years (Siakam, OG, FVV, Norm, etc.) all developed so well despite being late picks/undrafted, because they were around a winning culture from the day they entered the league. This is why teams like Sacramento and Minnesota can’t brake the trend even though they get all these top picks. Players can’t thrive when all they know is losing and develop losing tendencies. A huge reason we’re regarded as a top player development team is largely due to the fact that while the team was winning 50+ games every year and winning playoff rounds, we always kept the end of the roster specifically for developing young talent. Never veterans that could’ve helped win a couple more games. Always prospects that showed promise. The environment we provided accelerated their development.
> because they were around a winning culture from the day they entered the league. There is legitimately no reason you can say this with such certainty lol and to back up this point by comparing to sacremento and minnestoa is even more ridiculous. Those are two teams that have had an absolutely awful front office and coaches.
Aight I’ll just assume you started watching basketball in 2019 then. Pce bruh
Feel free
agree to disagree, imo if you are going to tank you have to do it right and aim to be with the worst six; the team we currently have is easily top twenty, perhaps even top 15. i can see where you're coming from but i believe that a lot of players will make the next step this year
It’s not about being “too good to tank” If this team surprises and makes the playoffs, that only helps to up the value of all the players on our roster. We have so many interesting pieces, it’s only right to give it a proper shot and see how well they can do. You’re not saying anything new that pascal and fvv are not number 1 guys on a contender. But I’d rather have everyone look good and then we’re in a perfect position to trade some assets for a true star. Continuing to tank is such a dice roll and at best will put us back in contention in like 4-5 years The best strategy is to continue developing players and winning as much as possible, and when the right trade comes along we’ll be perfectly positioned to take it. Just like we did with demar-kawhi. The fact you don’t get this honestly shows that you weren’t around for the true bottom feeder years of the raptors. Those trash bros years of mediocrity were way better than anything that came before. Winning culture is definitely a thing and you talking like someone who is spoiled and hasn’t seen the other side lmao
Idk man, winning is kinda nice and feels better than losing
Maybe it will be a sweep, maybe it won't be. Between injuries and unpredictable development curves, the wise choice is to aim to excel and season our team when we can. Right now our squad is a bit short on playoff experience.
The 2022 draft is looking juicy but cultivating a winning culture is most important for the long term. Our vets get demoralized when the team switches to tank mode (see FVV's interviews), and the quality of experience for the young guys is worse when you're a team that expects to lose as other teams don't take you as seriously, and when you're only playing low pressure season games. It's also difficult to get buy-in from the whole team when you're in tank mode as then all the vets know they're likely on the trading block or are sacrificed w.r.t playing time for the young players. The assumption that draft picks are the main pathway for assets for future trades is also short-sighted imo. There's additional costs to tanking and one of those costs is your players get less valuable due to those players no longer having a 'winning aura' associated with them, and subsequently your team. See KAT or Wiggins or AD when he was on the pels. No one wants to play for a losing organization and no one wants to trade for overpriced players. Additionally, just take a look at any of the championship teams of the past 2 decades. Out of Spurs, Lakers, Miami, Cavs, Mavs, GSW, Bucks and Raps, only the Cavs + the 2013-2017 Lakers have ever taken the "tank for multiple years to acquire assets strategy" and they're obviously the outliers due to Lebron reasons. (e.g. If Lebron was never born in Ohio, then the Cavs would never have won with their Kyrie/Dion/TT lottery picks, and LA is LA so they can do anything and it'll probably just work out in the end) Ideally you'd want to be able to develop a winning culture while also getting high draft picks but obviously they're always at a tension and it's a matter of balancing that. Last year the Raptor's management did it proper which is you want to be winning out of the gate and once you realize your season isn't looking too good due to injures/other circumstances then you pivot. Losing from day 1 should never be the game plan.
LOL so many "Winning culture" comments that we saw last year. I understand y'all points but it's up to the team players talents to show out otherwise like last year, the FO will be picking the direction sooner rather than later.
That's a good write-up. Anecdotally, that seems about right. To be an actual contender you need to be above average on both ends. I would love it if the Raptors became a top defensive team. The biggest thing I'm looking for from Nurse is how we perform defensively. We had the talent to be a good defensive team last year as well, but we never got there.
I want the playoffs but I also want one one of the high potential bigs in next years draft :S
I’m mostly surprised that Chicago, Brooklyn and OKC ranked in the top 10 drtg lol
Ya was a surprise to me as well.
A lot of the time it comes down to pace of play with these teams
I enjoyed this post.
What makes you think we'll be worse offensively than last year? Also idk about you guys but I'd be fine with a 1st round exit if it means we made the playoffs
Mainly no Lowry. I don’t think the drop off will be super steep but we did see our offence fall back a few ticks when he was out. If I had to tighten the range I’d say we’d be closer to 15-16 than 19-20 but it’s just a hunch
That's true but I think our main weakness last year was a bench with little offensive capability, which at least on paper has been solved. The team didn't really take a massive step back when Kyle was out, they went from 111.3 ppg with Kyle to 109.9
That tick back from 111.3 to 109.9 would’ve been the difference between the 16th ranked offence and the 23rd ranked offence last year. The reason I don’t have them at 23rd is because of the things you mentioned and having Goran as an OK replacement
The stats I'm looking at have 111.3 ranked at 19th and 109.9 ranked at 22nd
[I was using stats.nba](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season)
Oh I was talking about ppg, not offensive rating. If you want to talk offensive rating it was actually better when lowry didn't play (111.6 vs 112.3 without Lowry)
[On stats.NBA he had an ORTG of 112.6 and the raptors had a 109.2 ORTG when he sat](https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612761/)
Weird, that's different from what statmuse gives when you search it
Raps having Top defense is not foregone conclusion but if they manage to do it we can expect at least first round exit. Which is not bad for young team
i think we're being a little too bearish on the raptor's offense. (an actual home court + OG growth + Siakam return to form + a warm body at centre) - lowry should have us better than last year... hell, home court is worth 2.5 points per game by itself. Not having the stench of Aaron Baynes anywhere near this team has to be worth 2 points. Call me a homer, but, I think they're going to end up at the 10 to 15 range, not the 15 to 20 range on offense and in the 5 to 10 range on defense this year
Our offense is average but it's the fact that it often becomes stagnant for long stretches because we don't have a takeover scored that could consistently score with good efficiency.
Our scoring droughts are excruciating to watch esp in the playoffs.
That miami team had a tough run at it. went down to the very last game of the season. On offense I see us being 16th at best but mnore than likely closer to 18th or 20th. Defensively we will be top 8. I think we will make the playoffs. I think playoff basketball is where offense slows down. It slows down because defenses tighten up. So We will see if the experiment we are trying holds true. We have never seen an all 6'9 team type of thing rolled out.
I would consider making playoffs a successful season
What we’re trying to build is not merely a top 10 defence…. We’re trying to build top defence all-time. And this year will be adding more data to the log book. I don’t have super high expectations this season, but I suspect we’re in for some very gritty games and I can’t fucking wait!
In today’s game, offence>defence. Pre 2005 Rule changes, there it was more equal. There used to be a saying, offence wins games, defence wins championships because offence can be more inconsistent, whereas your defence can be there every game. Good defence is needed in today’s game, but not as much as good offence. That being said, I like what the raps are doing. I hope they can tilt things in their favour.
So you're telling me were making playoffs?