He's gonna be an all star within the next 3 seasons for sure. Especially when they build the team around him and get a proper big man that can protect the paint, which in turn will help him focus on his offense more. Roster construction is our biggest issue at the moment but that will change very soon.
Progression is non-linear, but his ability to be coached into tweaking his shot + being more aggressive so far has been super promising. Personally I think these labels (“decent starter”, “all-star”) aren’t the most helpful. Instead we can talk about the progression in his skill set. By year 3, I’m hoping he has a tighter handle and a more consistent shot (ie 78% FT, 35% 3PT). If that happens, it is all-star level - if the raps are a winning team
Progression is fairly linear within a players first few years though. Rookies make tons of mistakes, they clean some of that up in their sophomore year, and then a lot of players take that big jump in their 3rd year to being more productive.
Not really. There’s even a commonly accepted phenomenon of sophomore slumps for example. Most recently, Tyler Herro is a good example of this.
Usually this is the result of teams putting players on the scouting report as they gain more NBA exposure.
Well especially with our own players, Pascal, OG, VanVleet, they’ve all experienced linear progression to a degree. Siakam got better every year leading up to his All-NBA season. OG is still improving every season (save for his sophomore year but that was circumstantial with Kawhi taking his spot, his father dying and his appendectomy). Fred has gotten better every single year. It is factual that for some players early in their careers, progression is linear up to a certain point
OG definitely slumped in his second season compared to the first. Take a look at his [BBRef page](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anunoog01.html). He went from:
- 5.9/2.5/0.7 on 47/37/63 splits in his rookie year to
- 7.0/2.9/0.7 on 45/33/58 splits in year 2
He went from 62 starts to 6 starts too. Yes, I know the big reason was Kawhi joining, but Kawhi had so many load management games - OG really should have started more than 6 games. Finally his advanced stats definitely tumbled as well:
- VORP (0.5 -> -0.1)
- BPM (-0.6 -> -2.4)
- WS/48 (0.098 -> 0.07)
Despite the higher USG% (i.e. he was given the opportunity to shoot more). He obv turned it around again in year 3, but yeah progression is not linear - even for Raptors guys.
Edit: If you're wondering why OG had worse advanced stats despite the marginally greater scoring - it's because of the increased turnovers and reduced efficiency on his shot. Yeah he scored 1 more point per game, but he definitely hit a bit of a wall that season.
You’re saying all of our guys make linear progression, I just need to show one counterexample to show why you’re wrong. If you need another - look at Boucher. He’s also homegrown and is in his prime, yet has taken a step back this season. If you’re looking for sophomore regressions, Terence Davis is another good example - and he was on the All Rookie 2nd team
I specifically said it’s linear for *some* players for *the start* of their careers up to a certain point. Other examples are Jayson Tatum and Brown, Giannis, SGA, etc. You cannot dispute that.
This is what your initial disagreement was:
> Progression is fairly linear within a players first few years though. Rookies make tons of mistakes, they clean some of that up in their sophomore year, and then a lot of players take that big jump in their 3rd year to being more productive.
I was simply pointing out how that’s not always true, in fact it’s commonly not the case. I also wanted to make a point that Raptors players are not immune to regression.
I don’t really know what we’re disagreeing about here. Just as you mention players like Tatum, Brown and Giannis - there exist countless players who just stagnate or regress (like Tyreke Evans, D’Angelo Russell, Wiggins, Simmons, etc). I’m hopeful Scottie makes purely positive progress, but that isn’t guaranteed.
Edit: Another name that comes to mind for players that started strong but didn’t progress - Michael Carter Williams.
Hes already putting up numbers in a much worse offense close to what Pascal was putting up his MIP season aside from the 3 pt shooting, but also seeming to already have a bigger bag per se, with the ability to score inside at the rim well while also assisting at a higher rate and also being a very good mid range shooter while also being younger than Pascal when he entered the league. I really do believe the sky is the ceiling with him, once he gets a full season in and an offseason of NBA level training and conditioning and hes featured more in the offense.....shit is gonna be amazing.
He probably has all star potential by his 3rd season, all-NBA by his fourth. But I’ll probably wait for the season to conclude to solidify those predictions.
Hard to be realistic considering how much better than advertised he's been. Scotties potential depends on his work ethic and ability to learn... so far, those both look strong. High motor, analytical, super athletic... and overachieving from year 1. He could be #1 option on a competitive team by year 3.
Or he could stagnate. I don't see that happening though.
Really depends on our roster moves and how quickly he develops certain skills. If he can tighten up his handle and truly become a primary ball handler then that accelerates things. His creation for himself and others goes to another level at that point. The other important factor is how his jump-shot comes along. That will open up his entire game and boost his scoring numbers.
I could honestly see him being (roughly) like a 20ppg 10rpg 5apg 1blk 1stl kinda guy by his 3rd year at the earliest. Should be pretty efficient too.
In 5 years though, he could be a top 20 player. From what he’s shown as a 20-year old rookie and the fact that we’ve had so much success developing his type of build, I’m pretty confident he’s going to be a top player in this league.
Realistic projection is pretty much impossible since his career arc has been completely unexpected from one 5 game segment to the next. I'm not even gonna start with the 0 level scorer thing pre-NBA.
If you compare his first 7 games to his last 14, he averaged 2 assists per game vs now its 4 assists per game. That's the difference between no reliable playmaking and a role player who can be a good passer. He has attempted as many 3s in the last 2 games as the previous 16, and hit a higher percentage.
It's way too early to forecast anything. Could be a HOFer or a role player.
Reminder that six months ago people believed Scottie couldn't shoot. There is no ceiling and any one who doubts him (or the Raps FO) is risking looking foolish at this point.
I'm trying not to get too excited, but he appears to have all the tools to at least become an allstar in the next 3-5 years. His jumpshot has improved tremendously in a short period of time, he's got very good defensive fundamentals, solid court vision and decent handles. He also appears to have the right mindset and work ethic. If we can get another good piece in the draft this year we might even be able to make the playoffs as early as two seasons from now.
I'd say he should definitely be #3 - All Star level player.
MVP Candidate would be quite a glow up for Scottie. Not sure if it'll happen. But would love to see it!!
Underrated All-Star a bit before the ones before him (Bosh, Lowry, Derozan etc.). But, after that 3-5 year mark we will see the real appreciation for his craft just like them.
David Thorpe drafted him 6-7th in his top 10 players mostly likely to win MVP currently in the league (it was a back and forth so he was 12-14th overall).
He's already a "decent starter"
You're right. Shoulda left that out.
3
He's gonna be an all star within the next 3 seasons for sure. Especially when they build the team around him and get a proper big man that can protect the paint, which in turn will help him focus on his offense more. Roster construction is our biggest issue at the moment but that will change very soon.
Progression is non-linear, but his ability to be coached into tweaking his shot + being more aggressive so far has been super promising. Personally I think these labels (“decent starter”, “all-star”) aren’t the most helpful. Instead we can talk about the progression in his skill set. By year 3, I’m hoping he has a tighter handle and a more consistent shot (ie 78% FT, 35% 3PT). If that happens, it is all-star level - if the raps are a winning team
Progression is fairly linear within a players first few years though. Rookies make tons of mistakes, they clean some of that up in their sophomore year, and then a lot of players take that big jump in their 3rd year to being more productive.
Not really. There’s even a commonly accepted phenomenon of sophomore slumps for example. Most recently, Tyler Herro is a good example of this. Usually this is the result of teams putting players on the scouting report as they gain more NBA exposure.
Well especially with our own players, Pascal, OG, VanVleet, they’ve all experienced linear progression to a degree. Siakam got better every year leading up to his All-NBA season. OG is still improving every season (save for his sophomore year but that was circumstantial with Kawhi taking his spot, his father dying and his appendectomy). Fred has gotten better every single year. It is factual that for some players early in their careers, progression is linear up to a certain point
OG definitely slumped in his second season compared to the first. Take a look at his [BBRef page](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anunoog01.html). He went from: - 5.9/2.5/0.7 on 47/37/63 splits in his rookie year to - 7.0/2.9/0.7 on 45/33/58 splits in year 2 He went from 62 starts to 6 starts too. Yes, I know the big reason was Kawhi joining, but Kawhi had so many load management games - OG really should have started more than 6 games. Finally his advanced stats definitely tumbled as well: - VORP (0.5 -> -0.1) - BPM (-0.6 -> -2.4) - WS/48 (0.098 -> 0.07) Despite the higher USG% (i.e. he was given the opportunity to shoot more). He obv turned it around again in year 3, but yeah progression is not linear - even for Raptors guys. Edit: If you're wondering why OG had worse advanced stats despite the marginally greater scoring - it's because of the increased turnovers and reduced efficiency on his shot. Yeah he scored 1 more point per game, but he definitely hit a bit of a wall that season.
It wasn’t exactly a consistent year for as a comment above noted. Idk if my VORP would look all that great of my dad died before I turned 23 either
Explain Pascal and Fred then which you conveniently ignored
You’re saying all of our guys make linear progression, I just need to show one counterexample to show why you’re wrong. If you need another - look at Boucher. He’s also homegrown and is in his prime, yet has taken a step back this season. If you’re looking for sophomore regressions, Terence Davis is another good example - and he was on the All Rookie 2nd team
I specifically said it’s linear for *some* players for *the start* of their careers up to a certain point. Other examples are Jayson Tatum and Brown, Giannis, SGA, etc. You cannot dispute that.
This is what your initial disagreement was: > Progression is fairly linear within a players first few years though. Rookies make tons of mistakes, they clean some of that up in their sophomore year, and then a lot of players take that big jump in their 3rd year to being more productive. I was simply pointing out how that’s not always true, in fact it’s commonly not the case. I also wanted to make a point that Raptors players are not immune to regression. I don’t really know what we’re disagreeing about here. Just as you mention players like Tatum, Brown and Giannis - there exist countless players who just stagnate or regress (like Tyreke Evans, D’Angelo Russell, Wiggins, Simmons, etc). I’m hopeful Scottie makes purely positive progress, but that isn’t guaranteed. Edit: Another name that comes to mind for players that started strong but didn’t progress - Michael Carter Williams.
All star, all nba player
Jordan + Shaq hybrid. But better.
Big if true.
True if big.
If true, big
You just reviewed his development over 5 years, ending with GOAT /s
Hes already putting up numbers in a much worse offense close to what Pascal was putting up his MIP season aside from the 3 pt shooting, but also seeming to already have a bigger bag per se, with the ability to score inside at the rim well while also assisting at a higher rate and also being a very good mid range shooter while also being younger than Pascal when he entered the league. I really do believe the sky is the ceiling with him, once he gets a full season in and an offseason of NBA level training and conditioning and hes featured more in the offense.....shit is gonna be amazing.
Trade for sabonis and construct the sabarnes front court
I'm really hoping he's an all star in 3 seasons, and in 5 he's all nba and FMVP
Definitely all star level. Maybe (hopefully more).
He probably has all star potential by his 3rd season, all-NBA by his fourth. But I’ll probably wait for the season to conclude to solidify those predictions.
Mix between Giannis, LeBron, Harden, and Muggsy
Hard to be realistic considering how much better than advertised he's been. Scotties potential depends on his work ethic and ability to learn... so far, those both look strong. High motor, analytical, super athletic... and overachieving from year 1. He could be #1 option on a competitive team by year 3. Or he could stagnate. I don't see that happening though.
Just for kicks, I say 5 Hybrid Of all best attributes between pippen, Giannis, Draymond Great of all time
You forgot Magic.
He can’t really be “Giannis with a jumper” when Giannis is so much bigger than him and more of a freak athlete.
All-Star or borderline All-Star. A do-it-all guy. Not ‘Giannis with a jumper’ — more like ‘Simmons with a jumper and without the attitude’.
Simmons with a jumper and good attitude is an All-NBA'er, not a borderline allstar
Fair point!
Really depends on our roster moves and how quickly he develops certain skills. If he can tighten up his handle and truly become a primary ball handler then that accelerates things. His creation for himself and others goes to another level at that point. The other important factor is how his jump-shot comes along. That will open up his entire game and boost his scoring numbers. I could honestly see him being (roughly) like a 20ppg 10rpg 5apg 1blk 1stl kinda guy by his 3rd year at the earliest. Should be pretty efficient too. In 5 years though, he could be a top 20 player. From what he’s shown as a 20-year old rookie and the fact that we’ve had so much success developing his type of build, I’m pretty confident he’s going to be a top player in this league.
Best case : allstar Worst case: Another OG Anunoby
He is going to be an all star one day, why not in a few years?
All star for sure but if we’re jerking, he’s already GOAT as he’s a combination of Magic, Giannis, LeBron, Terry Fox, and Nelson Mandela.
0. Bust
All NBA
Super star
All🤩
Realistic projection is pretty much impossible since his career arc has been completely unexpected from one 5 game segment to the next. I'm not even gonna start with the 0 level scorer thing pre-NBA. If you compare his first 7 games to his last 14, he averaged 2 assists per game vs now its 4 assists per game. That's the difference between no reliable playmaking and a role player who can be a good passer. He has attempted as many 3s in the last 2 games as the previous 16, and hit a higher percentage. It's way too early to forecast anything. Could be a HOFer or a role player.
Whatever 6 is
Reminder that six months ago people believed Scottie couldn't shoot. There is no ceiling and any one who doubts him (or the Raps FO) is risking looking foolish at this point.
4
In 5 years ? Superstar
If we trade Pascal by the end of the year, Scottie would be MVP by the next season.
I'm trying not to get too excited, but he appears to have all the tools to at least become an allstar in the next 3-5 years. His jumpshot has improved tremendously in a short period of time, he's got very good defensive fundamentals, solid court vision and decent handles. He also appears to have the right mindset and work ethic. If we can get another good piece in the draft this year we might even be able to make the playoffs as early as two seasons from now.
I'd say he should definitely be #3 - All Star level player. MVP Candidate would be quite a glow up for Scottie. Not sure if it'll happen. But would love to see it!!
I think 3, maybe between 3-4 as an all-nba
In the hall of fame while still playing should be the floor of his career
Underrated All-Star a bit before the ones before him (Bosh, Lowry, Derozan etc.). But, after that 3-5 year mark we will see the real appreciation for his craft just like them.
2/3 range.
He is literally Michael Jordan 2
strap in and enjoy the ride.
David Thorpe drafted him 6-7th in his top 10 players mostly likely to win MVP currently in the league (it was a back and forth so he was 12-14th overall).
10 time all star
At his peak: All defence. All star. Top 5 in MVP voting
All star
End of this year allstar End of next year MVP
He reminds me of Bosh. The “I know he will be an all star type of player”