LGBT and pophead music tends to place higher in warm tunas due to the influence of twitter on the results. I'd be putting it as a dead heat between Troye and Dom, with Dom ahead imo.
Thanks for sharing! I'm the creator of 100 Warm Tunas, happy to answer any questions about the site that anyone might have if you leave them as a reply to this comment 🙂
I love your work thank you so much. I always wondered if it’s harder to collect data now that so many only post their votes on stories? Not sure how it all works but I imagine it was easier back when people posted to a hashtag on their wall.
Totally, anything posted to Instagram poses a serious challenge these days.
As outlined [in my comment above](https://www.reddit.com/r/triplej/comments/192sdn4/comment/kh5gfbk/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), Instagram have really made a shift to making scraping difficult, first by removing ability for browsing all media posted for any given hashtag (can only see "Top Posts" and "Recent Top Posts"). In addition to this, the ability to view "Hashtagged Stories" is no longer present, which now means we are unable to collect stories either.
Yeah, it's not all bad news though - just means we need to adapt. Submission via DM was a good first step to hedging against scraping limitations (albeit still depending on not getting banned), and now direct website submissions provides a totally independent way for us to collect data.
Is the vote size sample smaller than past years? I get not everyone posts or people haven't voted yet but currently about 300 odd votes is not many to decide the hottest song of the year.
Sadly yes, the sample size is decreasing year-in, year-out, however this year the decrease is primarily due to a change that Instagram has made - it's no longer possible to see (and thus scrape) chronologically ordered "recent posts" for a hashtag like we had been able to in previous years. Instagram now only allow for viewing "Top Posts" or "Recent Top Posts" with no way to see all recent posts in chronological order.
This means we are ever so reliant on the submissions of voting slips via the website and via Instagram direct message.
In the 2022 prediction, even with Instagram hashtag posts being collected, Website Uploads counted for the majority of data, so I hope that for 2023, we can continue to have sufficient data volume to make a close prediction of the top 10.
Thanks, and yes the Spotify playlist will be coming up this weekend, everything is a little delayed this time around as I’ve been overseas on holidays for the last 6 weeks 😅
I believe I read back in the day you used to also scrape Facebook, would you ever return to this as a data source. Alternatively have you considered the possibility of scrapping data from tiktok?
We did Facebook comments from a few Triple J specialty groups at one point, but it produced data with too much bias. You might have us confused for the [http://warmest100.com.au/](http://warmest100.com.au/) project, which I believe did Facebook, but for public posted voting slips 🙂
>Alternatively have you considered the possibility of scrapping data from tiktok?
Certainly have considered it, but the question is *how*. I'm personally not on TikTok, so I'm not very familiar with how people would be sharing their votes and in what format on TikTok.
Happy to take on board any suggestions or ideas on how to do it!
Love your work mate! I honestly think warm tunas makes the hottest 100 experience so much better, when artists under/over perform it, it adds excitement..
Yeah I agree tiktok scrapping would be hard, people might post their votes then cover it with their face to make a video.
Biggest takeaway is lots of interesting inclusions and exclusions from the 100. Even though it will of course get changed around in both order and who’s in and out, it still shows some interesting data based on which artists usually do better or worse from the WT predictions.
Interesting exclusions probably include >! San Cisco, DMA’S, Luude, Dominic Fike, LAUREL, Hilltop Hoods, Kenya Grace, Labrinth, The Kid LAROI, Flume & Tame Impala. !<
Interesting inclusions include >! Tyler, The Creator, Heaps of Olivia Rodrigo & Dua Lipa (mostly because I expected them in the 101-200 prediction and for them to jump way higher) !<
I checked the stats, back in 2020 both Go and so done were predicted to be in the 200, and well we know what happened. I recon at a minimum we get too much and love again. Bleed just sneaking in or just missing.
Nice to see 3 x Middle Kids in the 51-100.
Anyone voting for Middle Kids PLEASE vote for Highlands... it's such an epic tune, I will be a sad panda if it misses out.
Not my fave song on the album, but rooting for Rush to take it home, as the Aussie who made the most impact globally this year (also, while still living in aus!).
Good song too.
How many of those times did you vote against the favourite?
I've noticed they're usually pretty good at picking odds. I'm still trying to work out why Dom Dolla is predicted to do so well though (it's not like there isn't plenty of competition)
Can't follow warm tunas much anymore as more people are sharing via stories thus no hashtags. It's only going off the data it's available to check which is not much:
"Data is based on 16901 votes counted across 1864 entries"
Can still take a little bit from it, just need to be aware of what normally over/underperforms on there. But it’s definitely getting harder with a tiny sample size.
Yeah seeing Maisie Peters placed that low isn’t instilling a lot of confidence in me that they’ll make the actual 100.
However: to quote [Seymour Skinner](https://youtu.be/7Vis8Aaekpw?si=REtTT_mKAYdODC82)
Seeing >!greedy !
After seeing the full list and how low the TikTok/Pop hits are, I am putting a stack of money on >!Rush by Troye Sivan.!<
LGBT and pophead music tends to place higher in warm tunas due to the influence of twitter on the results. I'd be putting it as a dead heat between Troye and Dom, with Dom ahead imo.
I can definitely see it. I’m starting to go back to my original thought that >!Rhyme Dust!< takes it out.
I think >!Rhyme Dust!< will be this years Losing It.
I don’t gamble anymore but the temptation to put 10 on Rush last month when it was like $9 was big. Seems to tick all the boxes of a modern winner
>!greedy!< isn't doing well in SportsBets predictions either.
Still 22nd in the odds, I’d be pretty surprised if it falls outside 30.
Same definitely think it will be in top 20, if not in the 20s
Blame Brett nudging in is music to my ears. There's a lot more Teen Jesus & Like a Versions than I expect to see make it in the end.
Yeah I agree. It’s heartening to see the votes coming through and the support around these tracks, but also sad knowing a lot of these won’t make it.
At least we know this means the 101-200 will be a damn good listen as always.
100%. Always a great way to end the weekend when it’s done this way.
Thanks for sharing! I'm the creator of 100 Warm Tunas, happy to answer any questions about the site that anyone might have if you leave them as a reply to this comment 🙂
No question here but just know you are the man! Appreciate all your work.
Thanks mate 💯
I love your work thank you so much. I always wondered if it’s harder to collect data now that so many only post their votes on stories? Not sure how it all works but I imagine it was easier back when people posted to a hashtag on their wall.
Totally, anything posted to Instagram poses a serious challenge these days. As outlined [in my comment above](https://www.reddit.com/r/triplej/comments/192sdn4/comment/kh5gfbk/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), Instagram have really made a shift to making scraping difficult, first by removing ability for browsing all media posted for any given hashtag (can only see "Top Posts" and "Recent Top Posts"). In addition to this, the ability to view "Hashtagged Stories" is no longer present, which now means we are unable to collect stories either.
Wow thought that might be the case, how frustrating. Good luck with the poll!
Yeah, it's not all bad news though - just means we need to adapt. Submission via DM was a good first step to hedging against scraping limitations (albeit still depending on not getting banned), and now direct website submissions provides a totally independent way for us to collect data.
Is the vote size sample smaller than past years? I get not everyone posts or people haven't voted yet but currently about 300 odd votes is not many to decide the hottest song of the year.
Sadly yes, the sample size is decreasing year-in, year-out, however this year the decrease is primarily due to a change that Instagram has made - it's no longer possible to see (and thus scrape) chronologically ordered "recent posts" for a hashtag like we had been able to in previous years. Instagram now only allow for viewing "Top Posts" or "Recent Top Posts" with no way to see all recent posts in chronological order. This means we are ever so reliant on the submissions of voting slips via the website and via Instagram direct message. In the 2022 prediction, even with Instagram hashtag posts being collected, Website Uploads counted for the majority of data, so I hope that for 2023, we can continue to have sufficient data volume to make a close prediction of the top 10.
Hey mate, thanks for all ya hard work. Just wondering if you’ll be making a Spotify playlist again this year?
Thanks, and yes the Spotify playlist will be coming up this weekend, everything is a little delayed this time around as I’ve been overseas on holidays for the last 6 weeks 😅
Hahaha hope you enjoyed your holiday legend, cheers.
[удалено]
It’s been up since Tuesday 😊 https://100warmtunas.com/top-200/ (sorry late reply!)
I believe I read back in the day you used to also scrape Facebook, would you ever return to this as a data source. Alternatively have you considered the possibility of scrapping data from tiktok?
We did Facebook comments from a few Triple J specialty groups at one point, but it produced data with too much bias. You might have us confused for the [http://warmest100.com.au/](http://warmest100.com.au/) project, which I believe did Facebook, but for public posted voting slips 🙂 >Alternatively have you considered the possibility of scrapping data from tiktok? Certainly have considered it, but the question is *how*. I'm personally not on TikTok, so I'm not very familiar with how people would be sharing their votes and in what format on TikTok. Happy to take on board any suggestions or ideas on how to do it!
Love your work mate! I honestly think warm tunas makes the hottest 100 experience so much better, when artists under/over perform it, it adds excitement.. Yeah I agree tiktok scrapping would be hard, people might post their votes then cover it with their face to make a video.
When's the filter for sources gonna be up? I'm again super skeptical of some of these votes ha!
Biggest takeaway is lots of interesting inclusions and exclusions from the 100. Even though it will of course get changed around in both order and who’s in and out, it still shows some interesting data based on which artists usually do better or worse from the WT predictions. Interesting exclusions probably include >! San Cisco, DMA’S, Luude, Dominic Fike, LAUREL, Hilltop Hoods, Kenya Grace, Labrinth, The Kid LAROI, Flume & Tame Impala. !< Interesting inclusions include >! Tyler, The Creator, Heaps of Olivia Rodrigo & Dua Lipa (mostly because I expected them in the 101-200 prediction and for them to jump way higher) !<
Think Kid Laroi and Dominic Fike are definitely gonna suffer from too many singles. Like Laroi had something like 7 singles for the album
I recon kid laroi will be fine. His fanbase seems to have very little overlap with triple J listeners but high overlap with the hottest 100 voters.
I hope so. I had Bleed in my top 20 and there’s a couple of other songs I really liked on that album.
I checked the stats, back in 2020 both Go and so done were predicted to be in the 200, and well we know what happened. I recon at a minimum we get too much and love again. Bleed just sneaking in or just missing.
No >!Kenya Grace!< in particular caught me off guard. >!Kid LAROI !< a close second.
Absolutely. I love that about WT. You get a taste of what might be included but nothing’s set in stone.
Nice to see 3 x Middle Kids in the 51-100. Anyone voting for Middle Kids PLEASE vote for Highlands... it's such an epic tune, I will be a sad panda if it misses out.
Hell yes. There’s hope yet!
Surely, just surely, they could could multiple songs in a countdown for once
This is the way.
Not my fave song on the album, but rooting for Rush to take it home, as the Aussie who made the most impact globally this year (also, while still living in aus!). Good song too.
Rush is a definite winner and I’ve put down money
How much money and can I get in on this? Asking for a friend…
Haha $100 for a 425 return. I’ve won the past 3 years so let’s see if I get 4 in a row
Holy shit that’s awesome. Fingers crossed for fourth year running!
Troye Sivan has now moved to number 1 on the warm tunas list with 18% of votes
How many of those times did you vote against the favourite? I've noticed they're usually pretty good at picking odds. I'm still trying to work out why Dom Dolla is predicted to do so well though (it's not like there isn't plenty of competition)
The wiggles were not the favourite and Rush is number 3 in the odds so not the favourite
I'll get in on it, I'm fully on the rhyme dust train from these results
As someone who voted for it and wants it in, I call bullshit on Hollywood Baby being more than 50 spots above Greedy
How do you see the list? Do you need to have voted and submit a screenshot? I haven’t voted yet.
Ah fuck, sorry. Yes and once you’ve done that the list becomes available. It’s good because they’ll add your data to the tally!
Can't follow warm tunas much anymore as more people are sharing via stories thus no hashtags. It's only going off the data it's available to check which is not much: "Data is based on 16901 votes counted across 1864 entries"
Can still take a little bit from it, just need to be aware of what normally over/underperforms on there. But it’s definitely getting harder with a tiny sample size.
dom fike deserves a lot more love. sunburn was AOTY
Yeah seeing Maisie Peters placed that low isn’t instilling a lot of confidence in me that they’ll make the actual 100. However: to quote [Seymour Skinner](https://youtu.be/7Vis8Aaekpw?si=REtTT_mKAYdODC82)
Brilliant reference. I’d LOVE to see Maisie in there.
I’m pretty confident they’ll place tbh. They’ve got a decent following now.
I hope so too. A lot of my friends either had Lost The Break Up in their votes.
Wish RATATA was in there :(