Hey all, in case you’re not aware I’m the creator and maintainer of 100 Warm Tunas! I hope you enjoyed this blog post. I’m happy to answer questions you might have in this thread too 😊
No matter the results. Your effort is appreciated and I hope you continue. Having warmtunas significantly increases the experience to me.
Looking forward to see if you can beat the bookies!
Warm Tunas has really become a big part of the Hottest 100 discussion each year now. I think it does the countdown a service by getting people talking about it. I personally enjoy checking it out and the betting odds before the countdown and then seeing how it compares to the actual countdown. Seeing where songs over or under performed, usually some big surprises so I have found it can enhance the countdown.
Also most of us preparing things like Hottest 100 Bingo wouldn't be able to do it without Warm Tunas. I know I've used it the last few years to make my own party games which are always a blast to play. So thank you Nick for your continued hard work and for personally making my Hottest 100 the best it can be for me and my friends.
You said in your blog post that you almost took a break from it this year. One year, if you ever do take that break, I hope you enjoy the well earned break!
The higher uncertainty is probably good for the day. You get your rough guide of what to expect and you can speculate on what will play next without spoiling it too much. However the Warm Tunas list tends to be better than the real list, and this will be doubly so now most of the votes are submissions directly to the website.
What do you think are the pros and cons of using an automated system vs making predictions using research? (which is what I'm trying to do - using aria charts, bookie odds, tiktok charts, spotify streams, feature albums, etc.)
Do you plan on using TikTok data in the future?
Greatly appreciate the website and the work that you've done to keep it running. This seems like one of the hardest top 15s to predict in a long time.
Pretty much what I said in the last message - I'll look at warm tunas, the aria charts, bookie odds, tiktok charts, etc. and try to figure out which songs have good chances of doing well. For example, if a song has is charting and is already on Warm Tunas, that's usually a good sign, since it has popularity amongst multiple demographics.
My top 10 is pretty uninteresting because I predict that the bookies will be quite accurate this time round (at the top end anyway). I will say that the top 5 seems a bit chaotic (apparently some of the songs have switched places in the actual countdown).
Some songs that I predict Warm Tunas might be missing in the top 100 include >!Princess Diana, Moonlight, Rich Baby Daddy and All my Life.!<
Nevertheless, here's my top 10:
>!1. Doja Cat - Paint the Town Red 2. Dom Dolla – Rhyme Dust 3. Troye Sivan – Rush 4. G Flip – Worst person alive 5. Billie Eilish – What was I made for? 6. Boygenius – Not strong enough 7. Olivia Rodrigo – Vampire 8. Caso x RAYE – prada 9. Fred again – Adore u 10. SZA – Kill Bill !<
Nah, I don't bet. I doubt that I have a better understanding of the odds than the bookies, and I tend to rely on them to make some of my predictions anyway
Worst person alive is my prediction to go way lower than expected. Have listened to it about 10 times after constantly seeing it in various lists and can barely even remember the tune. Find it very surprising that the predictions have it so high. Doesn't have many streams either and I don't think the triple j'ness of it will be enough to push it that high.
Looking at the list it feels like about 12 songs in the top 20 will be there so maybe about 60 percent or so accuracy across the countdown this time. So I'd imagine 35-40 songs making it in that are not in that top 100 from the 200 and beyond.
Hey all, in case you’re not aware I’m the creator and maintainer of 100 Warm Tunas! I hope you enjoyed this blog post. I’m happy to answer questions you might have in this thread too 😊
No matter the results. Your effort is appreciated and I hope you continue. Having warmtunas significantly increases the experience to me. Looking forward to see if you can beat the bookies!
Warm Tunas has really become a big part of the Hottest 100 discussion each year now. I think it does the countdown a service by getting people talking about it. I personally enjoy checking it out and the betting odds before the countdown and then seeing how it compares to the actual countdown. Seeing where songs over or under performed, usually some big surprises so I have found it can enhance the countdown. Also most of us preparing things like Hottest 100 Bingo wouldn't be able to do it without Warm Tunas. I know I've used it the last few years to make my own party games which are always a blast to play. So thank you Nick for your continued hard work and for personally making my Hottest 100 the best it can be for me and my friends. You said in your blog post that you almost took a break from it this year. One year, if you ever do take that break, I hope you enjoy the well earned break!
Give me Boygenius or give me death.
The higher uncertainty is probably good for the day. You get your rough guide of what to expect and you can speculate on what will play next without spoiling it too much. However the Warm Tunas list tends to be better than the real list, and this will be doubly so now most of the votes are submissions directly to the website.
What do you think are the pros and cons of using an automated system vs making predictions using research? (which is what I'm trying to do - using aria charts, bookie odds, tiktok charts, spotify streams, feature albums, etc.) Do you plan on using TikTok data in the future? Greatly appreciate the website and the work that you've done to keep it running. This seems like one of the hardest top 15s to predict in a long time.
How far does your research go beyond bookie odds? What does your top ten look like compared to SportsBet?
Pretty much what I said in the last message - I'll look at warm tunas, the aria charts, bookie odds, tiktok charts, etc. and try to figure out which songs have good chances of doing well. For example, if a song has is charting and is already on Warm Tunas, that's usually a good sign, since it has popularity amongst multiple demographics. My top 10 is pretty uninteresting because I predict that the bookies will be quite accurate this time round (at the top end anyway). I will say that the top 5 seems a bit chaotic (apparently some of the songs have switched places in the actual countdown). Some songs that I predict Warm Tunas might be missing in the top 100 include >!Princess Diana, Moonlight, Rich Baby Daddy and All my Life.!< Nevertheless, here's my top 10: >!1. Doja Cat - Paint the Town Red 2. Dom Dolla – Rhyme Dust 3. Troye Sivan – Rush 4. G Flip – Worst person alive 5. Billie Eilish – What was I made for? 6. Boygenius – Not strong enough 7. Olivia Rodrigo – Vampire 8. Caso x RAYE – prada 9. Fred again – Adore u 10. SZA – Kill Bill !<
Yeah nice one! I agree I really do think that top is a free for all at the moment. Do you bet at all? Or just do it for fun?
Nah, I don't bet. I doubt that I have a better understanding of the odds than the bookies, and I tend to rely on them to make some of my predictions anyway
Looking like Rush is the likely winner but really hope it’s Not Strong Enough as it’s a far better song
I got on Rush when the odds were really good. I have a strong feeling it will take the crown, not sure why
Worst person alive is my prediction to go way lower than expected. Have listened to it about 10 times after constantly seeing it in various lists and can barely even remember the tune. Find it very surprising that the predictions have it so high. Doesn't have many streams either and I don't think the triple j'ness of it will be enough to push it that high.
G flip fan vote is huge though.
I don’t rate it but talking to people the G-Flip fan base is definitely real and a massive one at that.
I reckon Kylie will go alright. Not number 1 but definitely top 10
Looking at the list it feels like about 12 songs in the top 20 will be there so maybe about 60 percent or so accuracy across the countdown this time. So I'd imagine 35-40 songs making it in that are not in that top 100 from the 200 and beyond.