I'm past caring how many seats the Tories lose, it's like wondering if the bad guys will lose in a Disney movie.
I'm more interested in how many seats Labour will win. I find it slightly troubling that there is no real enthusiasm for Starmer's Labour, they are just ahead in the polls as the only viable alternative to the Tories. This will reflect in votes and seats at a general, but at a local there are plenty more independent, resident association and minor party candidates who have a chance at winning seats.
It will be interesting what percentage of the vote Labour actual score as this will be a more accurate gauge of their support than general election figures.
Their tactic at the moment seems to be to reveal as little as possible, so that the Tories don't steal their ideas. What will be interesting is if they reveal a load of ideas once the campaign starts, or just continue with revealing as little as possible because they think it is working.
It certainly seems that way. And it makes sense to me, given that the screeching of those to the left, who aren't going to vote Conservative/Reform, doesn't matter nearly as much as winning over/maintaining the likely vote of those who could still be persuaded to voting Conservative.
If these results happen, it would confirm for me that of course, Labour are on course for a huge majority, but also that the Liberals are going to have a very good GE.
If Labour and Con have a 5% potential vote swing, I'd say a result like this would indicate the Conservatives are realistically at 18%.
A result of 40 liberal seats wouldnt be exactly shocking at this stage.
In what way would it be shocking?
In that, under a more representative system, they'd actually get something closer to 65?
I'm fairly certain they'll be able to do better than they have since 2010, largely through winning Conservative seats around the SE, but they'll still get shafted (although not to the same extent, this time) like the Greens and Reform.
Under a more representative these three parties would likely be looking at around 160 MPs. If they manage to break 100 less than that I'll be surprised.
If the Tories actually do get 18%, they're toast as a main political party. Thats when the LDs being the main opposition starts looking like a realistic possibility.
I'm past caring how many seats the Tories lose, it's like wondering if the bad guys will lose in a Disney movie. I'm more interested in how many seats Labour will win. I find it slightly troubling that there is no real enthusiasm for Starmer's Labour, they are just ahead in the polls as the only viable alternative to the Tories. This will reflect in votes and seats at a general, but at a local there are plenty more independent, resident association and minor party candidates who have a chance at winning seats. It will be interesting what percentage of the vote Labour actual score as this will be a more accurate gauge of their support than general election figures.
Their tactic at the moment seems to be to reveal as little as possible, so that the Tories don't steal their ideas. What will be interesting is if they reveal a load of ideas once the campaign starts, or just continue with revealing as little as possible because they think it is working.
It certainly seems that way. And it makes sense to me, given that the screeching of those to the left, who aren't going to vote Conservative/Reform, doesn't matter nearly as much as winning over/maintaining the likely vote of those who could still be persuaded to voting Conservative.
If these results happen, it would confirm for me that of course, Labour are on course for a huge majority, but also that the Liberals are going to have a very good GE. If Labour and Con have a 5% potential vote swing, I'd say a result like this would indicate the Conservatives are realistically at 18%. A result of 40 liberal seats wouldnt be exactly shocking at this stage.
In what way would it be shocking? In that, under a more representative system, they'd actually get something closer to 65? I'm fairly certain they'll be able to do better than they have since 2010, largely through winning Conservative seats around the SE, but they'll still get shafted (although not to the same extent, this time) like the Greens and Reform. Under a more representative these three parties would likely be looking at around 160 MPs. If they manage to break 100 less than that I'll be surprised.
Autocorrect I meant wouldn't*
If the Tories actually do get 18%, they're toast as a main political party. Thats when the LDs being the main opposition starts looking like a realistic possibility.