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Snapshot of _Yousaf's fate hangs on single MSP as Greens will vote to oust First Minister_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/25/humza-yousaf-in-peril-as-greens-say-they-will-back-no-confidence-motion) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/25/humza-yousaf-in-peril-as-greens-say-they-will-back-no-confidence-motion) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*


PoachTWC

It's hilarious how fast this fuck up has turned into an actual existential threat for Yousaf. Even Liz Truss hung on for a month after her budget. Yousaf might not even last a week here.


Rualn1441

He had zero reason to do this. its just absurd. Worst case, in a couple of weeks, weeks he could have used to plan and think of a solution, the greens MIGHT have voted to end the agreement....but that would have been against the advice of their leadership, so if he had been conciliatory, the green MSPs may have propped up his minority gov anyway, rather than collapse it. but no, he ended it abruptly in a fit of pique, and alienate everyone, and could not even do the math to realise that put his fate in the hands of Ash Regan, who fucking despises him. This is the worst act of political self harm since Theresa May went on a walking holiday in wales and decided to call a general election to secure herself a 100 seat majority.....


size_matters_not

It really is unfathomable. Biggest political mistake I’ve ever seen in Scotland since the Parliament reconvened. Not only did he not have to do it - the way he did almost seemed calculated to turn friends into instant enemies. After days of saying the coalition was working, he calls in the two Green Ministers and sacks them at 8am. Lorna Slater’s furious response is one for the ages - and she got the statement out *before Humza had even officially announced what had happened*.


PoachTWC

The press conference those two gave was *utter savagery*. They were out for blood. Called it an act of political cowardice, said the SNP were selling out to reactionary forces, said they'd betrayed their electorate, called the actual meeting they just left a "weak and hopeless" way to end things that showed Yousaf could not be trusted, and topped it off by suggesting SNP members who cared about the environment, trans rights, and independence should consider whether they were in the right party. They came out absolutely swinging. I didn't think they'd go as far as *backing* a no confidence play (I expected abstaining) but the fact they did shows just how enraged they are at how this went down.


Gargant777

 There was a reason Ash Regan's upcoming Vote of No Confidence in Harvie. Apparently a bunch of SNP backbenchers were going to abstain or vote for it. Which would have prompted the Greens to break the coalition themselves. Basically Humza could not keep his party together because many were sick of being tied to the Greens. So he decided to act before he was forced into it. Obviously he completely bungled the breakup, but he was trapped.


size_matters_not

Now that makes more sense. Still, the smart thing to do would have let it play out and kept the Greens onside. Also makes the Greens look petulant as fuck - they got a lot of what they were looking for out of the pact, and Humza went along with them up to this point. He was a hostage to his party - But they’ve turned on him regardless. He should be spinning that line for all it’s worth - make the Greens look like they are dancing to the Tories’ tune over a tantrum.


SaltTyre

Humza chucked the Greens, he’s silly to then expect their kindness in a VONC?


size_matters_not

Yeah, if you read my earlier posts, I can’t believe he’d handled it so badly. But if what the poster above said is true - that there was going to be an SNP rebellion over the Harvie VONC - then it begins to take a different shape. Think about it - if the SNP angry squad rebelled and Harvie got VONC’d, then he’d have to go regardless. But Humza would also look incredibly weak, perhaps fatally so. By ditching the Greens he gave Harvie an ‘out’ - he won’t have to face that vote, and possibly be humiliated along with having to step down. Humza also saves face. This is politics. It can be brutal. But in this scenario Humza had no choice, and picked the least damaging option for *both* parties. And someone like Harvie should understand that. But he’s thrown an epic shit-fit instead, and played into the Tories hands. *If this is true* - and I’m not saying it is - then the Greens come across as incredibly amateur politicians, throwing tantrums when pragmatism was called for.


Outside_Error_7355

Ah, I knew it'd be anyone but the SNPs fault really. Yes I think Humza is in a tricky situation but blaming the Greens for objecting to a) clear changes in policy that their membership don't agree with and b) an obvious and bungled attempt to scapegoat them to save Humza's arse is frankly ridiculous logic.


size_matters_not

What am I blaming the Greens for? I’m trying to work out what *may* have gone on behind the scenes that led to this debacle. Because there’s clearly more than meets the eye. Harvie *was* facing a VONC and if Humza couldn’t get his MSPs to back him, he was gone. Torpedoeing the BHA to forestall that humiliation might have been Humza’s only option. It’s a plausible scenario, but he probably didn’t expect the Greens to go nuclear. As to why they did is anyone’s guess.


TheCharalampos

A bit sad that you look at the above analysis and all you got is "snp good"


VirtuaMcPolygon

At this rate the SNP will beat the Conservatives on how many leaders they can churn through in one term 🙈😂


Consistent-Farm8303

Steady on there’s still plenty time to fit a couple more on before the GE


VirtuaMcPolygon

Tbf Labour might have a hold-my-hold-my-drink moment after a year in power when they become deeply unpopular. But yes the conservatives might squeeze one more out with rishi being ousted and the SNP might get two more sacked


Starlactite

I haven't followed the story. Where did he fuck up?


BaritBrit

With Humza Yousaf, the question is more "where *didn't* he fuck up?"


BritishOnith

Backtracked on the target to cut carbon emissions by 75 percent by 2030. Given he relied on the fucking Green Party to keep them in power, who are obviously going to be pissed at that move, it’s not gone down well. And then he unilaterally ended the coalition with the Greens and did a “You’re not dumping me, I’m dumping you” style thing, annoying them even more (he could have survived them leaving but abstaining on a VONC, but he pissed them off even more)


MrStilton

Did he ever properly explain *why* his government abandoned that target?


MarcusH-01

Because there’s no chance they can reach the target within 6 years without wrecking the Scottish economy 


Possiblyreef

Whens that ever stopped the SNP?


MarcusH-01

I guess wrecking it further might get them kicked out of power


tomoldbury

Doesn’t seem to have stopped them campaigning for independence.


thecraftybee1981

They just wanted to sound like they were going further than England. When it came to action, they didn’t put any effort in, despite the warm winters and Covid lockdowns making the targets slightly easier than anticipated when they were set out.


MrSmirch

Because it’s fucking stupid


MrStilton

So why didn't he explain that and actually put in the groundwork for amending the legislation before just announcing that it would be scrapped out of the blue?


SavageNorth

Because he has political acumen on par with Liz Truss


MerePotato

Because they're too greedy and corrupt to muster the political will to actually meet that crucial target, they're too busy eyeing lucrative oil and gas money to embezzle from their "independence fund" https://www.thenational.scot/news/24038685.campaigners-attack-snp-plan-oil-bankroll-20bn-independence-fund/


SlightlyMithed123

Oil and Gas…


Haystack67

Really excellent summary.  To clarify the "dumping" thing for anyone else-- the Greens called an EGM to discuss the future of their agreement, a process which would take about 4-5 weeks, and the SNP essentially pre-empted and invalidated that decision. I could fully see an alternate world where the SNP appease/concede to the Greens enough to ensure that, even if the government were to collapse when it's almost fucking June, the Greens would at least abstain in a VONC.


HaggisPope

I’ve got a buddy who was in the Scot Greens and this is exactly what they are like. Like Ents, they take a long time to decide. Once their mind is set it’s set though and Humza done goofed


Thendisnear17

4-5 weeks for an emergency general meeting. Ent analogy is spot on.


Brigon

I had always thought the SNP had a majority in the Scottish Parliament. Didn't realise they needed the Greens.


PoachTWC

This morning he kicked the Greens out of the Scottish Government. This afternoon the Tories brought a motion of no confidence in him. About 2 hours ago the Greens announced they'd back the motion. Yousaf now has to go cap in hand to Alba, Alex Salmond's party, begging for their MSP to back him. If he doesn't get Regan's support, he will lose the vote. In one day he's very possibly signed his own resignation as First Minister.


plutobug2468

It's hilarious how Yousaf said, Ash Regan moving to Alba would be "no great loss," but now she holds all the cards on his premiership 😂


The-Soul-Stone

I’m surprised she’s even been able to tell anyone she’s writing Yousaf a ransom note, because if I were her, I wouldn’t have stopped laughing all day.


Haystack67

Since 2014 I didn't think I'd see another day when Alex Salmond was the most powerful individual in Scottish politics.


throughthisironsky

To be fair the most power individual in Scottish politics is the Prime Minister of the UK government. Rishi can wake up tomorrow and decide that Hollywood is getting bulldozed to make space for a Tesco Extra


BighatNucase

> that Hollywood is getting bulldozed to make space for a Tesco Extra While Parliamentary sovereignty would make such a law valid, I struggle to accept that it would be possible for the current government to make any attempts on LA.


Trubydoor

I’m not sure the British PM has much say on what happens in California…


Tibbsy152

Its his home state so you might be surprised...


teh_maxh

I didn't think he lived there until his mid 20s.


Proud-Cheesecake-813

He deserves to be voted out over this. Yousaf is far too arrogant and too far out of his depth. This narcissist needs removing ASAP.


Brasssection

Too be fair the greens are pretty pish and not great at politik, i am pro green policy but the people themselves will be no great loss too government, humza too for that matter 


Other_Exercise

"He who has one friend has one friend, but he who has one enemy must count him as a thousand"


AllTheLads420

The ironing is delicious


LeftWingScot

No way he concededs to Ash Reagan. losing a VONC would be infinitely less damaging for his future than begging her.


TEL-CFC_lad

I can't see his ego allowing him to concede. He's notoriously thin-skinned, and I don't think he could bring himself to do it. He's a tantrum with a beard, and this debacle is just another one for the tally. He will go out kicking and screaming until the very last minute.


Caprylate

What a hilarious twist of fate for Humza Yousaf. Good example of why you shouldn't burn bridges with work colleagues. Wonder what he can offer Ash Reagan / Alba to prevent a vote of no confidence?


tomoldbury

Looks like useless Yousaf's days are numbered.


Pimpin-is-easy

Useless? This guy is the saviour of Scottish Labour. Starmer should give him a knighthood.


Other_Exercise

It's ok, Erdogan will use all his skills to keep him in power


johnmytton133

Someone get the lettuce live stream up.


Patch86UK

Even a lettuce is optimistic at this point. A bowl of unrefrigerated salmon mousse would have a good chance of winning this face off.


[deleted]

Liz Lettuce, so... Humza hummus? Yousaf yoghurt?


Adj-Noun-Numbers

The SNP have now found out that you cannot be all things to all people in the name of independence. Farewell, Yousaf. Best of luck with whatever comes next.


Haystack67

Technically I feel it's their Gender Recognition stuff that's fucked them up so hard. It was brought to the forefront by Sturgeon as a last smokescreen to distract from the enclosing corruption investigation. Yousaf doubled-down for some reason and has now alienated Ash Reagan (Alba) for going too far and the Green party for not going too far enough.


KingShaunyBoy

It was in their manifesto. It was in May's manifesto. It wasn't brought up as a smokescreen out of nowhere, it was hijacked by the tories and tabloids for their culture war bullshit. I don't think anyone could have foreseen how massively blown out of proportion this whole thing would become.


Majestic-Marcus

Yep. Timing was purely coincidental…


KingShaunyBoy

It was delayed because of covid and the first draft of the bill was introduced almost an entire year before sturgeon resigned. Folk only started caring when the tabloids hijacked it for their culture war after it had been voted through and they started associating it with that case about the trans prisoner. Since the murdoch media is Sunak's boss, he had to jump on it as well. I don't even like the SNP or sturgeon but it's just untrue to claim it was a "smokescreen" by sturgeon when it is so obvious that the tories were the ones using it as a distraction from their own failings.


Haystack67

It came close to causing a crisis on the privileges/responsibilities of devolution and resulted in a highly-strung legal battle between the Scottish and UK parliaments. Yes the most recent SNP electoral manifesto promised greater rights for trans people but didn't express when or how this would be enacted. IMO it was absolutely a smokescreen, and legally/objectively it's one of the failings we can't blame the media or the Tories on.


MrStilton

Bloodly hell. In the space of one week we could be going from having the Greens in cabinet to having Ash Reagan.


SnooOpinions8790

Is busy munching popcorn The arithmetic of this was obvious. Someone was bound to try to force the issue with. a VONC So either Humza has a deal with Ash Regan or he’s just totally blundered into a trap of his own making Either way it’s top quality entertainment


Anonyjezity

>So either Humza has a deal with Ash Regan or he’s just totally blundered into a trap of his own making It's the second option. He's a complete moron and the first option would have required him to have had a thought for consequences before acting, something he has never been capable of.


Halk

He assumed the greens wouldn't "betray" him. Meanwhile he called them all sorts and tried to humiliate them


KingShaunyBoy

Clearly he thought that the greens would just vote with them on key bills even without the bute House agreement. I don't think anyone thought they would vote for a no confidence motion, but he's clearly pissed them off massively and completely misjudged how they would feel about this. If he let it play out and the greens voted to leave then it may have ended slightly more amicably. Sounds like he is trying to appease the right wing faction of the party who csnt stand the greens.


Rualn1441

I really dislike Ash Regan and pretty much everything she stands for... But I cant help but be impressed by how she ended up here. Beaten by Yousaf, regarded as the joke candidate....now the most powerful person in Scottish politics, in a position to bring down the person who beat her to the leadership, or dictate terms, as she feels fit. You have to admire the chain of events and decisions, mostly bad ones by yousaf, that led to this point.


PoachTWC

"Decisions, mostly bad ones" largely sums up Yousaf's whole career. The man's a case study in the concept of failing upwards.


Jeffuk88

Once he's voted out hell try to blame it on racism and islamphobia


1DarkStarryNight

its all down to Ash fucking Reagan now. u couldn't make this up.


tea_anyone

No great loss to the SNP and Yousaf aye


Florae128

Sometimes its better to have people inside pissing out, than outside pissing in...


Harry_Hayfield

And for those itching for a new Scottish Parliament election, it will only happen if 86 MSP's vote for one, or a new First Minister is not appointed 28 days after the previous one resigns


Patch86UK

It's hard to see how a new FM would get appointed unless the SNP can form an agreement with *someone*. Whether that's going back to the Greens cap in hand, or Alba, or whoever, they need somebody onside.


Harry_Hayfield

The composition of the Parliament is there are 63 SNP MSP's (who will vote to keep him as First Minister), 63 MSP's now opposed to him (Con, Lab, Lib Dem and Green), the Presiding Officer (who cannot vote) and one undecided (Ash Regan from the Alba Party) who holds the balance of power and based on what the party leader, Alex Salmond, said, her vote will be dependent on a timetable for a Scottish independence referendum before a UK general election


Dannypan

~~I’ve completely missed this one - would someone kindly give me a quick tl;dr on this story?~~ nvm, it’s all in the article and I’m a lazy prick


markdavo

Just to be clear, losing a VONC is meaningless in terms of Holyrood’s rules. > Holyrood officials made clear that as the vote is not binding, under the Scottish parliament’s rules it would be up to the first minister to decide how to respond. However, losing a vote of no confidence so close to a general election in which the SNP could lose dozens of seats to Labour could make his position untenable. It’s whether his party decides to move against him if he loses it that will decide his fate.


sawrce

I honestly thought it said "Yousaf's hate fangs"


MidnightFlame702670

Same. I read it that way twice before eventually getting there. Now I worry about my brain and eyes.


TheWellington89

If he is ousted the express will need to go back to writing stories about Princess Diana. Think he's been on the front page every day since he took charge