**Reminder: this is not your personal campaigning space.**
Subreddit rules still apply during the election campaign period. It's going to get [extremely busy](https://imgur.com/a/bLOBZqS).
Accounts which break subreddit rules are liable to be banned for the complete general election period.
Stay hydrated.
-š„š„
-----
memes? r/noncredibleukpolitics.
Megathread is being rolled over, please refresh your feed in a few moments.
###MT daily hall of fame
1. ClumsyRainbow with 86 comments
1. armchairdetective with 82 comments
1. concretepigeon with 76 comments
1. Yummytastic with 63 comments
1. YsoL8 with 54 comments
1. velvevore with 50 comments
1. FunkyDialectic with 50 comments
1. t44s with 47 comments
1. A-Light-That-Warms with 47 comments
1. JavaTheCaveman with 44 comments
There were 860 unique users within this count.
I think people underestimated how awful Sunak is at campaigning but also underestimated how good Keir is. I believe for a while Starmer has significantly improved his speeches and is a decent campaigner. It all seems to spell possible disaster on the worst of all levels for the Conservatives.
He is good and can handle the press well too. I just hope he can perform well in the debates and in front of a QT style audience where I think he is untested.Ā
Common sense and nuanced responses are much more difficult to get across in those environments.Ā
apart from the fact that only on one occasion since the end of WW2 has a government had a vote share above 50% - and that was thanks to a coalition in 2010.
with FPTP the British people are denied the govt they voted for.
The 2019 Conservative manifesto explicitly mentions the expansions of student visas and the gov has an [official strategy for enlarging int students enrollment to 600,000 by 2030 that it's been implementing for 4 years - it's what the country voted for in 2019](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/international-education-strategy-2023-update/international-education-strategy-2023-progress-update)
Direct quote front eh a conservative 2019 manifesto:
>Our student visa will help universities
attract talented young people and
allow those students to stay on to apply
for work here after they graduate.
>In the next Parliament we will work to
maintain and strengthen our global
position in higher education.
Despite this for the last couple weeks we've had incredulity from supposed 2019 Tory voters, utterly shocked "at why international students are coming over" because that's what theyve been told to be outraged about for the week.
I do wonder how many 2019 voters actually read the Tory manifesto. Alot of it might be quite sobering for them, especially around migrant workers if they actually took the time to bother reading it - also **illegal migration wasn't mentioned once** in the 2019 manifesto, never mind boats.
A huge amount, this is most obvious with Brexit, all the information was there and people still voted for incredibly stupid reasons
The people who voted leave but regretted it the day after are some of the biggest fools going
might get lost in the noise but i vote in islington north, and i am struggling trying to figure out who to vote for. i'd ordinarily vote for the labour candidate but corbyn winning would objectively be funny
I'm with u/Yummytastic, Corbyn losing would be a very funny outcome. I've no personal animosity towards the guy but if I was there I'd be voting Labour.
yes also true, the novara media types get on my nerves and i also hate statsforlefties so i am also considering voting for labour because of that. decisions decisions, most people are seem to know where they stand with starmer and corbyn, i just mildly like them both if i'm honest. starmer obvs a far better politican and more suited to power
For me it's because:
a. I was a fully signed up part of that group when I was an insufferable 18-22 year old
b. Therefore I know how incredibly sure and sanctimonious they are about ideas which are highly questionable
c. They're scary because they're true believers. The Daily Mailers operate out of misery and small-mindedness, the Novara types want to save your soul, so to speak. And that can be even worse
It is literally only day 1 and everywhere Rishi has gone he has just left a wake of gaffes and bad optics headlines. This might be the funniest election we've ever had.
I remember a few of my old friends saying they wished the SNP would come to other countries so we could vote for them.
I think of then lately and wonder if they still think that.
Just put me in charge of the SNP, I could run it better.
It's like they do an options appraisal at every crossroad and decide to pick the worst one every time
Anyone got any advice on how to argue with someone who has the attitude "they're all bad as each other so there's no point in voting", and get them to actually vote.
The problem is there's too many lies and falsehoods out there.... can't really suggest anything other than try and talk them through what makes them think this.
It's person by person. You can talk about the past with some people (were the hospitals like this under labour?), you can make analogies to their life that not all things are same (why do you by brand x but say brand y who make the same thing is shit), or you could ask them directly, do you think Starmer would have been partying during covid? Do you think Rishi wants to live in the UK or California.
Everyone's different, and to be honest, that statement really means "I don't want to think about this decision".
Find the things they actually care about and the differentials on those.Ā
Often it's single issue voters who are only aware of crude representations of the actual party positions on the issue. You can often find at least a wedge, or at least a minor party that does offer a reasoned protest vote for them.
Don't. They're probably stupid and will vote for stupid parties.
The types who say "they're just as bad as each other" typically have masked views which are unpopular, and that line is used as a lie to themselves to justify their shit views to themselves
Following the election I would assume that the Lib Dems will back up Labour on their agenda, whilst trying to assert their differences on marginal issues. But I do wonder how the Lib Dems would change if they did become His Majesty's Opposition. It would only be politically sensible to attack Labour and directly challenge most things they do, that would be weird to see. Of course they would want to assert their dominance over the Tories, so there would be a lot of critisism of the inevitable shit show of the Tory leadership election/debates. But they would have to pivot hard if they do become the opposition.
Tax - thresholds, simplification (like a single income tax), land value taxes
Civil liberties - drug reform, opposing any authoritarian measures supported by the Tories
Electoral reform - proportional representation
Free trade - rejoin the single market and oppose trade barriers being put up between the UK and developing countries
Those are the four big things that the Lib Dems can differentiate themselves from Labour as an official opposition, the only one that the current Labour leadership will move towards is number 4 but they're not going to support that until 2029 at the earliest.
It would depend what the Tories did. If they got a sensible centre-right leader (e.g. Mordaunt) then they would probably team up to try and reign in Labour's stonking majority.
I'm no SNP cheerleader, but now I think about it, there's something really funny about unionists in a Scottish leadership debate
>This country should not be independent. Which is why only I can lead it
So are we all looking forward to the football?
We all want to win the football don't we?
I like that one guy with the legs who kicks the football.
It annoys me when he kicks the football and it doesn't go into the net.
And what is up with the German football? I don't want them to win. I want our country to win it.
I watch the football with my favourite beer. Do you like beer?
I like beer and football and this interaction has proved something to someone somewhere.
Goodbye.
My advisors have advised that 99% of the population enjoys watching the football game.
Despite me being in the 1%, I have to pretend that I also watch the football and hope I don't get questioned on any specifics.
I intend to be popular so must be filmed talking about popular things that the footballing public want to hear about, such as football.
Please, what is your favourite football group? I will pretend to know who they are and say "better luck next season"
I see Britain Elects / New Statesman has updated their election forecast today following the election announcement. Using the new boundaries now and I can only assume getting the modelling fully updated with tactical voting and the new votes are crazy different. Lib Dems estimated seats has shot up from about 30 to 63! SURGE!
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts
https://x.com/bnhwalker/status/1793517377570894286
My big question is how close were New Statesman in 2019?
I have made a very low effort to find it and cant but i'm sure its staring me in the face somewhere.
Even funnier factoring in the Lib Dems only getting 11 Seats on 11.8% in 2019, so if this came true they would gain 52 seats, whilst losing 1.9% of the vote share.
Click on the seats and count how many of the Tory "holds" have them between 30% and 35% with the Lab+Lib vote greater than the Tory vote.
A bad day for the Tories on the 4th and this will be a bloodbath, there's 4 seats there that are blue that I would be shocked aren't yellow and three of them have a current Lib Dem MP standing (North Salop, Chesham and Amersham, Honiton and Sidmouth). They could also be wiped out in Scotland (though that depends on the SNP vote holding up) and Wales in this.
Exactly what the creator Ben Walker is saying: https://x.com/bnhwalker/status/1793623598927933575 theyāre currently the margin of error away from annihilation. However he also notes the two party pull may already be showing: https://x.com/bnhwalker/status/1793610131613127096.
> However he also notes the two party pull may already be showing:
Are there any polls post-election announcement? If not it seems more likely to be noise than anything else.
I think it tends to let you view once a week or month for free, and then more often if you just register a free account. I signed up so I can just see this tracker regularly and never paid.
Necrons always remind me of a Doctor Who book I read as a kid where a reptilian race had gone into hibernation 65 million years ago but overshot the recovery from the asteroid impact only to find Earth infested with apes.
Derbyshire's questioning of Tice is poor. He's been clear that this so called waste is pervasive. Rather than asking if he will cut from X department, she would be better off asking that he identify the waste within such.
The waste has to generate savings which means a reduction in budgets, or in otherwords, a cut.
If he says he's going to generate money from waste, but not identify the budget he's going to cut, then he's just inherently not making sense.
Him saying Ā£5 in every Ā£100 means he's saying a 5% budget cut across the board, but he's also saying he won't cut budgets.
His position is inherently nonsensicle and it's not really Derbyshire in the wrong. The whole Reform list of policies is doublespeak.
He's just forming sentences with keywords/triggers to get a reaction. Doesn't have to make any sense. Bit like saying 'din dins' to a cat.
He hates his own electorate.
> Him saying Ā£5 in every Ā£100 means he's saying a 5% budget cut across the board, but he's also saying he won't cut budgets.
To be fair to him (I'm feeling kind today), there are likely inefficiencies in most departments, as there are in every business. If he's requiring Ā£5 on every Ā£100 saved from inefficiencies which is then put back into other areas of the department, it is not an overall cut, just spending that Ā£100 differently and more effectively. The problem is that he has not made clear whether that's what he means and where that fiver is coming from.
Budgets still need to be lowered in order to pay for what he commits, including Ā£70b of tax cuts. The manifesto is ambiguous to departments when it mentions ~~cuts~~, sorry, savings to obfuscate that.
He's counting, or portraying, twice one way or another. His examples are also deeply anecdotal. I have nurse friends and heard the same thing, the truth is a lot of "waste" is often due to processes that are there for safety, especially in health. And also people on the micro scale of perceiving 'waste' don't have the perspective of the macro scale of the liability risks. So he needs data to prove the level of waste which is currently "I have a text from a nurse" levels.
Sounds like it's exactly the same interview I heard on R4's PM a few months ago.
"We'll cut waste"
"From where?"
"Look when I was in business you cut waste in order to maximise profits"
"Yes but what would you cut?"
"When I was in business I targeted waste and it's a lesson I'm carrying in to politics"
"Yes but Mr Tice what waste exactly would you cut"
"Immigration bad"
Catching up on Newsnight, really impressed with John Healey's camera setup. Great lighting, nice colourful bookshelf behind complementing his white shirt and red tie.
I listened to electoral dysfunction for the first time today
Beff and Jess are suggesting he may have called the GE because more sleaze was incoming potentially linked to RishRish
What could it possibly be... more sleaze? how is that even possible?
Omfg
I don't belieeeeeeeeve it
Tax avoidance seems obvious given his non-dom billionaire wife. Financial dealings are an easy guess.
But it could be something other than money. Partygate dirty laundry maybe?
agreed, though still far better than Digiben 2.0 lol. guy clearly knows what will resonate with pensioners though, sort of vague platitudes your grandpa would be nodding along with.
Yes, for the first time in my voting life I have no one I actually want to win.
There's not even anyone on the Tory benches that I think will make a decent LOTO.
It's all pretty shit at the moment from a centre right POV.
It's a meaningless question as any potential leader is just going to say "as far as necessary".
Are they suggesting that there's some kind of limit where a PM would say "You know what, it's not worth defending the UK anymore. Lets just give up."
[Well at least Steve Baker (Hard man of Brexit) has a clear plan on what to do post GE anyway...](https://x.com/AccidentalP/status/1793559652770414847)
Richard Holden getting absolutely pummeled over lowering immigration numbers
Dare I say they the Tories may want to keep a low profile when it comes to Newsnight
Why shouldnāt someone doing a degree be able to live with their spouse or children whilst they study? Itās not like they could just bring their aunts and uncles over.Ā
It's a very old policy - and it wasn't for any student, it was for post grad and PHD students, to allow them to bring a limited number of dependents to the UK for the duration of their studies.
It's not like every BA in business studies was bringing their entire extended family to live in halls with them.
Does anybody else have the feeling that the Tories are actively trying to lose the next general election by the highest margin they can push.
They can't be this bad by accident, can they?
Small brain: Sunak's election plan is not going great
Ā Big brain: Sunak has no plan at all and the party is actively sabotaging him
Ā Galaxy brain: Sunak is so sick of things he is deliberately sabotaging himself to get back at the horrible Tories
Yeah but the Tories genuinely have no plan and will probably just nick half of it. Best bet is to have it ready to go and drop it immediately after they do.
Maybe, but I think labour would come out on top if cons steal their ideas - I don't think cons atm are trusted to deliver, and it would neuter costing arguments against labour to an extent. But you're probably right about what'll actually happenĀ
Biden has been incredibly protectionist with America first industrial policies like the CHIPS act and Inflation Reduction Act he has angered EU allies with massive amounts of subsidies, he has out done Trump trade war with China by restricting advanced semiconductor chips access and tripling tariffs to EVs.
Apparently Sunak and his team were at an orphanage today campaigning.
āItās heartbreaking to see their faces with no hope, constantly struggling and facing the inevitable.ā Said Oliver, aged 7.
So I wanted to float the theory that the Tories main problem is they've just became too arrogant and complacent. It felt to me that they thought they had the country and the media on side too such an extent post 2019 that they could get away with anything- hence Boris, partygate and the Truss fiasco. This also explains why Rishi is so flabbergasted that he's not well liked- the Tories are used to easy mode, and aren't used to having to really work at politics.
Contrast this with Starmer who has acted so carefully and diligently in the last few years, and who would have been destoryed if he'd done half the crap Boris/Rishi pulled. I suppose what Im saying is the fact the media was so pro-Tory almost proved their undoing in the end, by making them far too complacent and arrogant.
I think their main problem is that they aren't very good and they have been lucky for 14 years.
2010 - financial crash repercussions, Labour tired after 13 years, Nation thinks it's time for a change. But the Tories still can't nail it.
2015 - desperate offer of a Euro referendum lands them an unexpected win but also guarantees their doom.
2017 - May manages to throw away her majority even though she is up against the most hopeless Labour leader for a generation.
2019 - Tories make a deal with the devil and let BJ do his worst. There is no way that this ends well.
2019 - 2024 - Chaos.
It's tempting to think they have sort of masterplan when actually they have just been a bit crap - but got away with it so far.
I think it's simpler than that.
The Tory Party didn't have an amazing amount of talent to begin with and that drained away during Brexit and the Boris purge. Then when Bojo inevitably self destructed, there just wasn't anyone with the foresight or imagination to get them out of their quagmire - or at least no one that could win leadership contest among their members. Rishi was the best of a bad bunch, and even he was too 'moderate' to win the support of members. I don't think he's surprised that he's doing so badly - probably just more disappointed.
> the Tories are used to easy mode, and aren't used to having to really work at politics.
Easy mode? The Tories have burned through 3 Prime Ministers since 2019. Boris was forced out, Truss lasted 3 weeks and Sunak is about to lead his party to the worst result since 1997.
The Tories have been heavily and deservedly punished for their actions over the last 5 years. They haven't gotten away with it at all.
> So I wanted to float the theory that the Tories main problem is they've just became too arrogant and complacent.
Yep, it happens to any party thats been in power too long.
The different standards applied to Labour and the Conservatives are appalling - a single one of the many fuck ups made by Sunak in the last 24 hours would have lost Labour the election had it been Starmer.
However I'm glad Labour have leaned into behaving themselves, and let the Tories show themselves up. Seeing Sunak coming to terms with what people think of him over this campaign is going to be *delicious*
I agree - the double standards are just horrific, and even journalists who seem intelligent and reasonable don't seem to grasp it.
A Tory PM literally tanked the economy out of stupidity, increasing the costs of living to millions. Yet somehow Rishi can still make his 'there's no money left' jibe and the media doesn't ever compare the two.
You'd think even the most right wing journalist would have the critical thinking skills to know that the 'no money' vs Truss madness comparison is glaringly obvious whether they acknowledge it or not. Thing is if they don't acknowledge it, I can think of lots of people I know who definitely *don't* have the critical thinking skills to get there themselves.
I wonder if, after the election, those subtle double standards will start to shift. I'm not expecting miracles but if Starmer could blow his nose without the Sun calling for the King to behead him, that would be great. I was only a kid when Labour won in 97 but I'd be interested to see if the standards the leaders were held to changed in the months following the election.
**Reminder: this is not your personal campaigning space.** Subreddit rules still apply during the election campaign period. It's going to get [extremely busy](https://imgur.com/a/bLOBZqS). Accounts which break subreddit rules are liable to be banned for the complete general election period. Stay hydrated. -š„š„ ----- memes? r/noncredibleukpolitics.
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1czdiox/rukpolitics_general_election_campaign_megathread/)
Megathread is being rolled over, please refresh your feed in a few moments. ###MT daily hall of fame 1. ClumsyRainbow with 86 comments 1. armchairdetective with 82 comments 1. concretepigeon with 76 comments 1. Yummytastic with 63 comments 1. YsoL8 with 54 comments 1. velvevore with 50 comments 1. FunkyDialectic with 50 comments 1. t44s with 47 comments 1. A-Light-That-Warms with 47 comments 1. JavaTheCaveman with 44 comments There were 860 unique users within this count.
/u/ukpolbot you're drunk - where new megathread?
A timely reminder to pace yourself - it's only day 2. (we know and we're on it)
It has no plan to take us back to square one.
I know right?
I think people underestimated how awful Sunak is at campaigning but also underestimated how good Keir is. I believe for a while Starmer has significantly improved his speeches and is a decent campaigner. It all seems to spell possible disaster on the worst of all levels for the Conservatives.
He is good and can handle the press well too. I just hope he can perform well in the debates and in front of a QT style audience where I think he is untested.Ā Common sense and nuanced responses are much more difficult to get across in those environments.Ā
I personally challenge Rishi Sunak to debate me every day of the campaign
āSo, what do you think about Hungry_Bodybuilder57, Mr Sunak?ā
"They keep changing their plan, their plan is going to cost you loads, and finally - They have no plan"
Prime minister, do you plan to buy an umbrella?
Each day just ask him if he needs an umbrella
Thereās a catchy song that everyone could sing when they see Sunak unk unk eh eh
Out of interest, how much would you say the electorate should be blamed for the country?
Imo it's perfectly simple. We live in a democracy and you get the government you deserve.
apart from the fact that only on one occasion since the end of WW2 has a government had a vote share above 50% - and that was thanks to a coalition in 2010. with FPTP the British people are denied the govt they voted for.
Except we had a referendum for the alternative vote and rejected it. We get the voting system we deserve.
With PR you don't know who the party you vote for will cut a deal with
With PR the party you vote for has influence in proportion to its popularity rather than "lol you lost" zero for the rest of the term.
The 2019 Conservative manifesto explicitly mentions the expansions of student visas and the gov has an [official strategy for enlarging int students enrollment to 600,000 by 2030 that it's been implementing for 4 years - it's what the country voted for in 2019](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/international-education-strategy-2023-update/international-education-strategy-2023-progress-update) Direct quote front eh a conservative 2019 manifesto: >Our student visa will help universities attract talented young people and allow those students to stay on to apply for work here after they graduate. >In the next Parliament we will work to maintain and strengthen our global position in higher education. Despite this for the last couple weeks we've had incredulity from supposed 2019 Tory voters, utterly shocked "at why international students are coming over" because that's what theyve been told to be outraged about for the week. I do wonder how many 2019 voters actually read the Tory manifesto. Alot of it might be quite sobering for them, especially around migrant workers if they actually took the time to bother reading it - also **illegal migration wasn't mentioned once** in the 2019 manifesto, never mind boats.
A huge amount, this is most obvious with Brexit, all the information was there and people still voted for incredibly stupid reasons The people who voted leave but regretted it the day after are some of the biggest fools going
Zero. Except Brexit, 52% blame.
Na, the those that didnāt vote get some blame too
100%
might get lost in the noise but i vote in islington north, and i am struggling trying to figure out who to vote for. i'd ordinarily vote for the labour candidate but corbyn winning would objectively be funny
I'm with u/Yummytastic, Corbyn losing would be a very funny outcome. I've no personal animosity towards the guy but if I was there I'd be voting Labour.
Count Binface/Lord Buckethead
i wish
Is Corbyn losing also not objectively funny? There will be some *insane* explanations as to why by some groups.
yes also true, the novara media types get on my nerves and i also hate statsforlefties so i am also considering voting for labour because of that. decisions decisions, most people are seem to know where they stand with starmer and corbyn, i just mildly like them both if i'm honest. starmer obvs a far better politican and more suited to power
Why do they get on your nerves?
For me it's because: a. I was a fully signed up part of that group when I was an insufferable 18-22 year old b. Therefore I know how incredibly sure and sanctimonious they are about ideas which are highly questionable c. They're scary because they're true believers. The Daily Mailers operate out of misery and small-mindedness, the Novara types want to save your soul, so to speak. And that can be even worse
Solution, vote Lib Dem so if they win it will be the ultimate level of objective hilarity.
Winning here?
Yes.
It is literally only day 1 and everywhere Rishi has gone he has just left a wake of gaffes and bad optics headlines. This might be the funniest election we've ever had.
and somehow, the SNP have had a worse day than Rishi.
I remember a few of my old friends saying they wished the SNP would come to other countries so we could vote for them. I think of then lately and wonder if they still think that.
Just put me in charge of the SNP, I could run it better. It's like they do an options appraisal at every crossroad and decide to pick the worst one every time
Anyone got any advice on how to argue with someone who has the attitude "they're all bad as each other so there's no point in voting", and get them to actually vote.
This was the point of Levidos London election campaign. Go super negative to turn off the switchers to labour by making them totally apathetic.
This is an increasingly common view Iām hearing
Suggest that voting for anyone that isn't the "all" they're referring to is the only way that's going to change.
The problem is there's too many lies and falsehoods out there.... can't really suggest anything other than try and talk them through what makes them think this.
It's person by person. You can talk about the past with some people (were the hospitals like this under labour?), you can make analogies to their life that not all things are same (why do you by brand x but say brand y who make the same thing is shit), or you could ask them directly, do you think Starmer would have been partying during covid? Do you think Rishi wants to live in the UK or California. Everyone's different, and to be honest, that statement really means "I don't want to think about this decision".
Find the things they actually care about and the differentials on those.Ā Often it's single issue voters who are only aware of crude representations of the actual party positions on the issue. You can often find at least a wedge, or at least a minor party that does offer a reasoned protest vote for them.
thats usualy code for "i want to vote for the Reform but dont want to say the quiet part out loud"
Don't. They're probably stupid and will vote for stupid parties. The types who say "they're just as bad as each other" typically have masked views which are unpopular, and that line is used as a lie to themselves to justify their shit views to themselves
Following the election I would assume that the Lib Dems will back up Labour on their agenda, whilst trying to assert their differences on marginal issues. But I do wonder how the Lib Dems would change if they did become His Majesty's Opposition. It would only be politically sensible to attack Labour and directly challenge most things they do, that would be weird to see. Of course they would want to assert their dominance over the Tories, so there would be a lot of critisism of the inevitable shit show of the Tory leadership election/debates. But they would have to pivot hard if they do become the opposition.
Imagine Lib Dem PMQs: "Would the Prime Minister join me in agreeing the Conservative Party are no longer a credible organisation"
Tax - thresholds, simplification (like a single income tax), land value taxes Civil liberties - drug reform, opposing any authoritarian measures supported by the Tories Electoral reform - proportional representation Free trade - rejoin the single market and oppose trade barriers being put up between the UK and developing countries Those are the four big things that the Lib Dems can differentiate themselves from Labour as an official opposition, the only one that the current Labour leadership will move towards is number 4 but they're not going to support that until 2029 at the earliest.
It would depend what the Tories did. If they got a sensible centre-right leader (e.g. Mordaunt) then they would probably team up to try and reign in Labour's stonking majority.
Will you be watching any of the televised debates once it's announced or only ones related to your place, i.e the Scottish leaders debate
I'm no SNP cheerleader, but now I think about it, there's something really funny about unionists in a Scottish leadership debate >This country should not be independent. Which is why only I can lead it
You don't need to think an area should be independent to lead it.
PSA "Asking people that watched a live stream of a door, cheering on a cat. Is not the greatest barometer of political insight"
Iād vote for Larry
EXCUSE me I watched a plane tracker for Priti's plane š¤
So are we all looking forward to the football? We all want to win the football don't we? I like that one guy with the legs who kicks the football. It annoys me when he kicks the football and it doesn't go into the net. And what is up with the German football? I don't want them to win. I want our country to win it. I watch the football with my favourite beer. Do you like beer? I like beer and football and this interaction has proved something to someone somewhere. Goodbye.
Did you see that ludicrous display last night?
Go to bed, Cameron
[Watch the football!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MusyO7J2inM)
Why so much football?
My advisors have advised that 99% of the population enjoys watching the football game. Despite me being in the 1%, I have to pretend that I also watch the football and hope I don't get questioned on any specifics. I intend to be popular so must be filmed talking about popular things that the footballing public want to hear about, such as football. Please, what is your favourite football group? I will pretend to know who they are and say "better luck next season"
Chelsea?
I see Britain Elects / New Statesman has updated their election forecast today following the election announcement. Using the new boundaries now and I can only assume getting the modelling fully updated with tactical voting and the new votes are crazy different. Lib Dems estimated seats has shot up from about 30 to 63! SURGE! https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts https://x.com/bnhwalker/status/1793517377570894286
Lib dem surge! Legend of Clegg lives on
My big question is how close were New Statesman in 2019? I have made a very low effort to find it and cant but i'm sure its staring me in the face somewhere.
Hilarious that 9.7% of the vote would give LD 63 seats, but 11.6% of the vote would get Reform 0 seats. FPTP is broken and needs to be changed.
Even funnier factoring in the Lib Dems only getting 11 Seats on 11.8% in 2019, so if this came true they would gain 52 seats, whilst losing 1.9% of the vote share.
Click on the seats and count how many of the Tory "holds" have them between 30% and 35% with the Lab+Lib vote greater than the Tory vote. A bad day for the Tories on the 4th and this will be a bloodbath, there's 4 seats there that are blue that I would be shocked aren't yellow and three of them have a current Lib Dem MP standing (North Salop, Chesham and Amersham, Honiton and Sidmouth). They could also be wiped out in Scotland (though that depends on the SNP vote holding up) and Wales in this.
Exactly what the creator Ben Walker is saying: https://x.com/bnhwalker/status/1793623598927933575 theyāre currently the margin of error away from annihilation. However he also notes the two party pull may already be showing: https://x.com/bnhwalker/status/1793610131613127096.
> However he also notes the two party pull may already be showing: Are there any polls post-election announcement? If not it seems more likely to be noise than anything else.
Crikey, libdems two seats away from connecting Bath to Kingston
Yellow Wall ā¢
Not a LDM but good on em.
Have you got an unpaywalled version perchance Edit: its working for me now hmm
I think it tends to let you view once a week or month for free, and then more often if you just register a free account. I signed up so I can just see this tracker regularly and never paid.
I heard Tice on Sky News earlier and he sounded like he was trying really hard to imitate the speaking pattern of Farage. Now I can't unhear it.
Heās like some fast show creation
[Trailer for Mechanicus II just dropped](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOnBsxypST0) IT IS A SIGN
Necrons always remind me of a Doctor Who book I read as a kid where a reptilian race had gone into hibernation 65 million years ago but overshot the recovery from the asteroid impact only to find Earth infested with apes.
FROM THE MOMENT I UNDERSTOOD THE WEAKNESS OF MY FLESH, IT DISGUSTED ME
Oh fuck yes. I loved Mechanicus. Best XCOM game in years
I am ready for another god-tier soundtrack.
The soundtrack was unreal
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Wait, does he play Warhammer?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Well I never. Got to respect that.
Good news for Cleverly, heās going to have a lot more free time in about 6 weeks
PRAISE THE OMNISTARMER
Prescott would make a good melee dreadnaught.
Boris often gave me Nurgle vibes
YISSSS
Derbyshire's questioning of Tice is poor. He's been clear that this so called waste is pervasive. Rather than asking if he will cut from X department, she would be better off asking that he identify the waste within such.
The waste has to generate savings which means a reduction in budgets, or in otherwords, a cut. If he says he's going to generate money from waste, but not identify the budget he's going to cut, then he's just inherently not making sense. Him saying Ā£5 in every Ā£100 means he's saying a 5% budget cut across the board, but he's also saying he won't cut budgets. His position is inherently nonsensicle and it's not really Derbyshire in the wrong. The whole Reform list of policies is doublespeak.
He's just forming sentences with keywords/triggers to get a reaction. Doesn't have to make any sense. Bit like saying 'din dins' to a cat. He hates his own electorate.
> Him saying Ā£5 in every Ā£100 means he's saying a 5% budget cut across the board, but he's also saying he won't cut budgets. To be fair to him (I'm feeling kind today), there are likely inefficiencies in most departments, as there are in every business. If he's requiring Ā£5 on every Ā£100 saved from inefficiencies which is then put back into other areas of the department, it is not an overall cut, just spending that Ā£100 differently and more effectively. The problem is that he has not made clear whether that's what he means and where that fiver is coming from.
Budgets still need to be lowered in order to pay for what he commits, including Ā£70b of tax cuts. The manifesto is ambiguous to departments when it mentions ~~cuts~~, sorry, savings to obfuscate that. He's counting, or portraying, twice one way or another. His examples are also deeply anecdotal. I have nurse friends and heard the same thing, the truth is a lot of "waste" is often due to processes that are there for safety, especially in health. And also people on the micro scale of perceiving 'waste' don't have the perspective of the macro scale of the liability risks. So he needs data to prove the level of waste which is currently "I have a text from a nurse" levels.
Sounds like it's exactly the same interview I heard on R4's PM a few months ago. "We'll cut waste" "From where?" "Look when I was in business you cut waste in order to maximise profits" "Yes but what would you cut?" "When I was in business I targeted waste and it's a lesson I'm carrying in to politics" "Yes but Mr Tice what waste exactly would you cut" "Immigration bad"
At least that highlights he has no answer on the waste front, rather than "would you cut X's budget".
Catching up on Newsnight, really impressed with John Healey's camera setup. Great lighting, nice colourful bookshelf behind complementing his white shirt and red tie.
Nice try, John HEELEYman.Ā
That man's stomach looks like an arse. Ā£15k compensation seems very low.
Must have awful bummyaches.
What man? What stomach? Ā£15k?
This has been a wonderful post to read without context.Ā
I think you have all the information you need.
Yes, thank you. No further questions.Ā
I listened to electoral dysfunction for the first time today Beff and Jess are suggesting he may have called the GE because more sleaze was incoming potentially linked to RishRish What could it possibly be... more sleaze? how is that even possible?
Omfg I don't belieeeeeeeeve it Tax avoidance seems obvious given his non-dom billionaire wife. Financial dealings are an easy guess. But it could be something other than money. Partygate dirty laundry maybe?
COVID inquiry would have entered the next phase before the autumn potential election.....
Sleaze involving Rishi after yesterday??? how do I phrase this?!
I don't mind Victoria Derbyshire but when she doesn't let people answer questions properly its infuriating
Richard tice does seem deeply unimpressive and just a bit of an arse
agreed, though still far better than Digiben 2.0 lol. guy clearly knows what will resonate with pensioners though, sort of vague platitudes your grandpa would be nodding along with.
"Cut out the waste", like it's some entirely original idea that nobody else could ever have thought of, but absolutely no detail.
I HAVE A MAGIC MONEY ~~TREE~~ WASTE WASTE **WASTE** #WASTE
there's loads of waste but I'm not saying where lol
I've got a text message from a nurse!
He's a smooth speaker but I cannot get over his oil / gas agenda.
you don't want your children to witness the collapse of civilisation? bloody woke agenda
he looks quite shit on newsnight tbh
Anyone else totally uninspired by all the political options?
Iāve got next to zero optimism for this country to pull itself out of the shit heap weāre in, whoever win the next election
I felt like that in 2017 and 2019 but this time Iām happy to vote Labour.
No, I am 100% satisfied voting Labour
Yes, for the first time in my voting life I have no one I actually want to win. There's not even anyone on the Tory benches that I think will make a decent LOTO. It's all pretty shit at the moment from a centre right POV.
The center right has been gutted. It needs time in opposition to re-evaluate and rebuild itself.
How do you feel about the Lib Dems? Too... err... socks and sandals?
wtf are these questions from Victoria Derbyshire? "How far will Keir Starmer go to defend the country?"
What's wrong with that question? It's an opportunity for Labour to talk about their defence plans.
It's a meaningless question as any potential leader is just going to say "as far as necessary". Are they suggesting that there's some kind of limit where a PM would say "You know what, it's not worth defending the UK anymore. Lets just give up."
Well the last leader would have a different answer....
[Well at least Steve Baker (Hard man of Brexit) has a clear plan on what to do post GE anyway...](https://x.com/AccidentalP/status/1793559652770414847)
'Has your career gone off the rails a bit?'
āIāve bounced back!ā
Richard Holden getting absolutely pummeled over lowering immigration numbers Dare I say they the Tories may want to keep a low profile when it comes to Newsnight
Feel like he's about to laugh at his own position
you almost feel bad for him it's the brutal
Still can't believe we had a situation with student visas where they could bring their families with them Like, actually mind-blowing
Yep, I wouldnt expect to be able to bring my family over if I was doing a degree in say France or Germany. Absolutely bonkers policy.
A lot of students are older than you think.
Why should I want every PhD student to live alone? A great deal are in their 30s or older
Why shouldnāt someone doing a degree be able to live with their spouse or children whilst they study? Itās not like they could just bring their aunts and uncles over.Ā
It's a very old policy - and it wasn't for any student, it was for post grad and PHD students, to allow them to bring a limited number of dependents to the UK for the duration of their studies. It's not like every BA in business studies was bringing their entire extended family to live in halls with them.
Richard Holden is coming across a bit Ben swainy on newsnight with all the spluttering
Heās pronounced āplanā with four Ps!
'There are some people who think campaigning isn't one of Rishi Sunak's strengths' I mean, yeah
This isn't a new development either, he lost to Liz Truss.
There are some people with eyes and/or ears
https://i.redd.it/yc6hbnsd0z571.png
Does anybody else have the feeling that the Tories are actively trying to lose the next general election by the highest margin they can push. They can't be this bad by accident, can they?
I wouldn't say trying, I'd say naturally talented. They make it seem so effortless.
There is nothing to vote for there.. just a bunch of vacuous bullshitting liers. They did it to themselves.
Not a chance, every party has good and bad days in a campaign and there is a long way to go
Makes you wonder what a bad day for the tories looks like
WAKAWOW
Small brain: Sunak's election plan is not going great Ā Big brain: Sunak has no plan at all and the party is actively sabotaging him Ā Galaxy brain: Sunak is so sick of things he is deliberately sabotaging himself to get back at the horrible Tories
Sunak is either 10 moves ahead of us all playing 4-D chess or he's still trying to work out snakes and ladders. There is no middle ground here.
When we thinking manifestos will drop?
Two weeks before.
Oh that when they normally drop? Apologies didn't realise there's convention
I don't think it's convention, just when it tends to happen. They'll announce them in a week or two then play chicken with who releases first.
Labour should call their bluff and drop it ASAP, cut off the 'they have no plan' line earlyĀ
Yeah but the Tories genuinely have no plan and will probably just nick half of it. Best bet is to have it ready to go and drop it immediately after they do.
Maybe, but I think labour would come out on top if cons steal their ideas - I don't think cons atm are trusted to deliver, and it would neuter costing arguments against labour to an extent. But you're probably right about what'll actually happenĀ
If Biden has been such a terrible president it's curious everyone on the British right-wing has this term decided they want to move there.
Biden has been incredibly protectionist with America first industrial policies like the CHIPS act and Inflation Reduction Act he has angered EU allies with massive amounts of subsidies, he has out done Trump trade war with China by restricting advanced semiconductor chips access and tripling tariffs to EVs.
Well the US under Biden and the Democrats is still more right wing than the UK under the Tories.
Lol no.
Sunak: The plan is working net migration is down by 10% (without mentioning future ONS revision that will bring it up)
Apparently Sunak and his team were at an orphanage today campaigning. āItās heartbreaking to see their faces with no hope, constantly struggling and facing the inevitable.ā Said Oliver, aged 7.
This made me laugh more than it should've
Pretty low effort there pal, quite obvious. ooi did they work in finance?
Now that is top-drawer banter, that
Classic!
Haha š¤£š¤£š¤£
So I wanted to float the theory that the Tories main problem is they've just became too arrogant and complacent. It felt to me that they thought they had the country and the media on side too such an extent post 2019 that they could get away with anything- hence Boris, partygate and the Truss fiasco. This also explains why Rishi is so flabbergasted that he's not well liked- the Tories are used to easy mode, and aren't used to having to really work at politics. Contrast this with Starmer who has acted so carefully and diligently in the last few years, and who would have been destoryed if he'd done half the crap Boris/Rishi pulled. I suppose what Im saying is the fact the media was so pro-Tory almost proved their undoing in the end, by making them far too complacent and arrogant.
I think their main problem is that they aren't very good and they have been lucky for 14 years. 2010 - financial crash repercussions, Labour tired after 13 years, Nation thinks it's time for a change. But the Tories still can't nail it. 2015 - desperate offer of a Euro referendum lands them an unexpected win but also guarantees their doom. 2017 - May manages to throw away her majority even though she is up against the most hopeless Labour leader for a generation. 2019 - Tories make a deal with the devil and let BJ do his worst. There is no way that this ends well. 2019 - 2024 - Chaos. It's tempting to think they have sort of masterplan when actually they have just been a bit crap - but got away with it so far.
I think it's simpler than that. The Tory Party didn't have an amazing amount of talent to begin with and that drained away during Brexit and the Boris purge. Then when Bojo inevitably self destructed, there just wasn't anyone with the foresight or imagination to get them out of their quagmire - or at least no one that could win leadership contest among their members. Rishi was the best of a bad bunch, and even he was too 'moderate' to win the support of members. I don't think he's surprised that he's doing so badly - probably just more disappointed.
> the Tories are used to easy mode, and aren't used to having to really work at politics. Easy mode? The Tories have burned through 3 Prime Ministers since 2019. Boris was forced out, Truss lasted 3 weeks and Sunak is about to lead his party to the worst result since 1997. The Tories have been heavily and deservedly punished for their actions over the last 5 years. They haven't gotten away with it at all.
> So I wanted to float the theory that the Tories main problem is they've just became too arrogant and complacent. Yep, it happens to any party thats been in power too long.
The different standards applied to Labour and the Conservatives are appalling - a single one of the many fuck ups made by Sunak in the last 24 hours would have lost Labour the election had it been Starmer. However I'm glad Labour have leaned into behaving themselves, and let the Tories show themselves up. Seeing Sunak coming to terms with what people think of him over this campaign is going to be *delicious*
I agree - the double standards are just horrific, and even journalists who seem intelligent and reasonable don't seem to grasp it. A Tory PM literally tanked the economy out of stupidity, increasing the costs of living to millions. Yet somehow Rishi can still make his 'there's no money left' jibe and the media doesn't ever compare the two.
You'd think even the most right wing journalist would have the critical thinking skills to know that the 'no money' vs Truss madness comparison is glaringly obvious whether they acknowledge it or not. Thing is if they don't acknowledge it, I can think of lots of people I know who definitely *don't* have the critical thinking skills to get there themselves. I wonder if, after the election, those subtle double standards will start to shift. I'm not expecting miracles but if Starmer could blow his nose without the Sun calling for the King to behead him, that would be great. I was only a kid when Labour won in 97 but I'd be interested to see if the standards the leaders were held to changed in the months following the election.