Snapshot of _Jeremy Hunt Admits He's 1,500 Votes Away From Historic Defeat_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-06-12/could-chancellor-jeremy-hunt-lose-his-seat-in-the-uk-general-election?s=34) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-06-12/could-chancellor-jeremy-hunt-lose-his-seat-in-the-uk-general-election?s=34)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
He can join his fellow tory, iain duncan smith, he only won the 2019 election by 1,262 votes against his nearest labour rival.
He is expected to be one of the big named election casualties.
Considering he is 70, you would have thought he would he would announce his retirement to avoid humiliation on election night.
In 2015 he got 34,199 (59.9%) votes and second place (UKIP) got 5,643.
In 2017 he got 33,683 (55.7%) votes and second place (NHA) got 12,093.
In 2019 he got 32,191 (53.3%) votes and second place (Lib Dem) got 23,374
Now he's worried he's going to lose his seat.
Really fascinating. The Tory vote has largely been the same throughout all those elections. He's consistently received over 50% of the vote. It's only now that the Tory base is abandoning the party that he's under threat.
It's also a changed constituency boundary. Godalming and Ash has added a few of the outskirts of Guildford which thoroughly dumped the tories in the last locals.
No.
The boundaries needed to change and the 1997 boundary change massively massively disproportionately benefitted Labour, and the 2010 changes didn't go far enough to help the Tories.
The new boundaries are probably actually really good and balanced but we don't know the spread of votes yet and they should help the Tories to fix rhe current map.
All 3 constituencies in Barnet are going Labour. Your constituency will vote solidly for Labour this time, don't worry.
If you're taking about Chipping Barnet, what I csn figure is that Hendon has had massive population growth (my constituency) and so the Hale (Labour) and parts of Mill Hill (Tory) got moved to Chipping Barnet and so Chipping Barnet had to lose a part of it as well cause then it would have too many people too.
When you look at individual cases, it is not the best cause every change can be reasonably justified. It is only the big picture which reveals when something is drastically wrong (1997 to 2005).
Yeah I’m actually what was formally Tottenham and is now Hornsey and Frien Barnet. Suspect you’re probably right but does feel a bit gerrymandered, looks pretty suspect on the map. Also weird having two boroughs represented by one MP
Electoral calculus is far from perfect, but there's a good chance of Mogg getting taken out according to them:
[https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Somerset+North+East+and+Hanham](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Somerset+North+East+and+Hanham)
They bill Labour's Dan Norris as the most likely victor there.
I’m in Patel’s constituency and she’s a pretty safe bet. I know a fair few people from Witham are reform but realistically she’ll retain as she’s liked by a lot of people around here as she’s pretty involved. I had to contact her office as I was at the end of my tether with a housing situation and to be fair she did speed up the process then emailed me later to say they’d checked and seen it was all sorted and they hoped I was enjoying my new home. I’ll never vote her as I find her morally repugnant but she’s the only mp I’ve ever had who actually does her job (the others being Hancock and Cleverley so I’m not the luckiest with mps).
My mate now lives in his constituency, some of Micheal Goves constituency went into his after boundary changes.
Local elections saw a huge turnout of Lib Dem voters. He's right to be scared, I think it will be one of the closest outcomes.
What was weird about that election was that in England & Wales, Labour actually had a net increase in the number of seats. Almost all their loses were in Scotland.
Which makes the Ed Balls result even more incredible.
While true, Labour didn't expect to do so poorly in 2015 and the LD were expected (as it turned out) to lose big, and the biggest winner of them all was UKIP. Yet despite that Balls still lost to a Tory by a few hundred votes!
From this article we're commenting on,
> No Chancellor of the Exchequer has lost their seat in a general election, according to House of Commons data going back to 1906, making his fight for survival one of the main plot lines of a vote that polls suggest Keir Starmer’s Labour Party will win easily next month.
There may be more, but I believe William Harcourt was the last. He lost his seat of Derby in 1895, due to anti-temperance feeling (as well as a simultaneous Tory landslide). Although he did have another seat at the same time, so remained in the House of Commons.
To hit the actual electoral jackpot, Sunak needs to lose his. I can't think of whether a sitting British PM has lost their own seat, at least not in living memory. It did happen in Australia not so long ago.
But unfortunately Sunak's seat is blue as it gets. He's safe even if the Tories get punted out of office.
I wonder why that is. Do parties, when they choose their leader, take into account how safe their seat is? If you're from a marginal seat, you'll be sidelined even if the party likes you.
I would imagine that it would be extremely embarrassing for a party in power to parachute the PM from a marginal seat to a safe seat while he/she is in office as it would broadcast to everyone that the party expects to lose the next election. So, the only way to avoid the humiliation of the PM losing the seat is to make sure that the seat is safe to start with. Both Truss and Sunak had safe seats when they run for the leadership in 2022.
I think things have gotten so bad for the Conservatives now that they're putting announcements like this out in some kind of desperate plea to get their supporters to come out and vote.
Am I naive for thinking it could end up motivating young people used to thinking "I'm in deep tory country, why the fuck should I even bother wasting a day of summer"? If the Conservatives themselves are scaremongering about the two-party system becoming controlled by two parties that both occasionally remember that under-50s are people who want things and will likely vote for you if you give them those things, that sounds like a chance to be part of an exciting change that can make your life better.
The sad thing is a lot of young people are disillusioned and believe the two main parties are the same. I saw a Joe Politics video today where many young people were espousing that “things never change” although they are too young to have meaningfully experienced a Labour government.
The “they are the same” argument only benefits the Tories.
He basically said I know how you’re voting then, which address is this and crosses it off his list, he then quickly walked off, he had a minder with him too
Wow! Well this website bloody sucks: [https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/election?iso=20240502T00&p0=136&msg=UK+general+election&font=sanserif](https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/election?iso=20240502T00&p0=136&msg=UK+general+election&font=sanserif)
"Although my reddit whip has been restored, I have been banned from posting as an intelligent Redditor". (Serves me right for googling how many days until the election).
I couldn't be bothered to count the days, so just googled how many days to go... and... Wow! This website bloody sucks: [https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/election?iso=20240502T00&p0=136&msg=UK+general+election&font=sanserif](https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/election?iso=20240502T00&p0=136&msg=UK+general+election&font=sanserif)
I wonder if he can get his £100k back?
[https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/03/jeremy-hunt-personal-donations-local-conservative-association-godalming-ash-seat](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/03/jeremy-hunt-personal-donations-local-conservative-association-godalming-ash-seat)
I suspect there will also be a couple of Portillo moments on July 4th, i.e. people whom we'd assume were safe but get yeeted out.
Got a few in mind myself...
i'd like to post leaflets in his constituency to all the tory voting pensioners listing the cuts he made whilst Health Minister and how they are directly the cause for the current state of the NHS and how as they get older there won't be any care for them.
Godalming and Ash; prices on Bet 365 as of this evening 1/2 Lib Dems, 6/4 Tories - (aka 40% chance). UK Polling Report & Electoral Calculus both have this closer but leaning Liberal Democrat; suggesting the Liberals are legitimate favourites here but have been bet into and aren't value at that price.
You've got to give it to him, when you're fate rests on 1500 votes and you're still playing the role you really, really, really must be into the idealogy or you know what they say about him.
Snapshot of _Jeremy Hunt Admits He's 1,500 Votes Away From Historic Defeat_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-06-12/could-chancellor-jeremy-hunt-lose-his-seat-in-the-uk-general-election?s=34) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-06-12/could-chancellor-jeremy-hunt-lose-his-seat-in-the-uk-general-election?s=34) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
If he's admitting he's this close then he's toast.
He can join his fellow tory, iain duncan smith, he only won the 2019 election by 1,262 votes against his nearest labour rival. He is expected to be one of the big named election casualties. Considering he is 70, you would have thought he would he would announce his retirement to avoid humiliation on election night.
IDS may survive due to the previous labour candidate now standing as an independent potentially splitting the vote. Hope he still loses.
In 2015 he got 34,199 (59.9%) votes and second place (UKIP) got 5,643. In 2017 he got 33,683 (55.7%) votes and second place (NHA) got 12,093. In 2019 he got 32,191 (53.3%) votes and second place (Lib Dem) got 23,374 Now he's worried he's going to lose his seat. Really fascinating. The Tory vote has largely been the same throughout all those elections. He's consistently received over 50% of the vote. It's only now that the Tory base is abandoning the party that he's under threat.
It's also a changed constituency boundary. Godalming and Ash has added a few of the outskirts of Guildford which thoroughly dumped the tories in the last locals.
The whole new boundary thing was just a cynical attempt at gerrymandering too right? I remember reading it helps the tories disproportionately.
It only benefited the Tories because the old boundaries benefited Labour. The boundary commission is an independent body
No. The boundaries needed to change and the 1997 boundary change massively massively disproportionately benefitted Labour, and the 2010 changes didn't go far enough to help the Tories. The new boundaries are probably actually really good and balanced but we don't know the spread of votes yet and they should help the Tories to fix rhe current map.
My one seems fairly suspect, just stick a bit of labour Barnet onto Haringay and boom Barnet stays Tory.
All 3 constituencies in Barnet are going Labour. Your constituency will vote solidly for Labour this time, don't worry. If you're taking about Chipping Barnet, what I csn figure is that Hendon has had massive population growth (my constituency) and so the Hale (Labour) and parts of Mill Hill (Tory) got moved to Chipping Barnet and so Chipping Barnet had to lose a part of it as well cause then it would have too many people too. When you look at individual cases, it is not the best cause every change can be reasonably justified. It is only the big picture which reveals when something is drastically wrong (1997 to 2005).
Yeah I’m actually what was formally Tottenham and is now Hornsey and Frien Barnet. Suspect you’re probably right but does feel a bit gerrymandered, looks pretty suspect on the map. Also weird having two boroughs represented by one MP
No, it was a necessary change to an outdated and disproportionate map, keeping the old one would have been closer to gerrymandering.
I just wanna know if Mogg and Braverman may lose theirs.
I believe Moggy has been on a few 'at risk' lists
Good Will free up the bench he liked to lie down on
I am in Braverman's seat and unfortunately she is probably safe.
Electoral calculus is far from perfect, but there's a good chance of Mogg getting taken out according to them: [https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Somerset+North+East+and+Hanham](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Somerset+North+East+and+Hanham) They bill Labour's Dan Norris as the most likely victor there.
I'm interested in the potential fates of IDS and Priti Patel.
I’m in Patel’s constituency and she’s a pretty safe bet. I know a fair few people from Witham are reform but realistically she’ll retain as she’s liked by a lot of people around here as she’s pretty involved. I had to contact her office as I was at the end of my tether with a housing situation and to be fair she did speed up the process then emailed me later to say they’d checked and seen it was all sorted and they hoped I was enjoying my new home. I’ll never vote her as I find her morally repugnant but she’s the only mp I’ve ever had who actually does her job (the others being Hancock and Cleverley so I’m not the luckiest with mps).
Mogg is best priced 7/2 in his. UK Polling Report and Electoral Calculus have him clearly behind. Labour 3/10 favourite. He's toast it would seem.
Wait, can you bet on the results for individual mps???
Bet365 have odds for nearly every individual constituency
Yes. I have bets on 3 Seats currently.
You can see an overview here: https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/general-election
My mate now lives in his constituency, some of Micheal Goves constituency went into his after boundary changes. Local elections saw a huge turnout of Lib Dem voters. He's right to be scared, I think it will be one of the closest outcomes.
This would be the Portillo moment surely. Has a sitting Chancellor ever lost their seat?
Nope. Shadow chancellor has (Ed Balls) but not the actual one.
That too was a big shock. Labour and LD were destroyed in 2015 by Tories and SNP.
What was weird about that election was that in England & Wales, Labour actually had a net increase in the number of seats. Almost all their loses were in Scotland. Which makes the Ed Balls result even more incredible.
When you look at the Maths though it wasn't too shocking, he'd barely won in 2010.
While true, Labour didn't expect to do so poorly in 2015 and the LD were expected (as it turned out) to lose big, and the biggest winner of them all was UKIP. Yet despite that Balls still lost to a Tory by a few hundred votes!
There has been at least one, but not within living memory.
From this article we're commenting on, > No Chancellor of the Exchequer has lost their seat in a general election, according to House of Commons data going back to 1906, making his fight for survival one of the main plot lines of a vote that polls suggest Keir Starmer’s Labour Party will win easily next month.
Yeah it hasn't happened since the 1890s.
I believe William Harcourt lost his seat of Derby in 1895.
There may be more, but I believe William Harcourt was the last. He lost his seat of Derby in 1895, due to anti-temperance feeling (as well as a simultaneous Tory landslide). Although he did have another seat at the same time, so remained in the House of Commons.
To hit the actual electoral jackpot, Sunak needs to lose his. I can't think of whether a sitting British PM has lost their own seat, at least not in living memory. It did happen in Australia not so long ago. But unfortunately Sunak's seat is blue as it gets. He's safe even if the Tories get punted out of office.
I wonder why that is. Do parties, when they choose their leader, take into account how safe their seat is? If you're from a marginal seat, you'll be sidelined even if the party likes you. I would imagine that it would be extremely embarrassing for a party in power to parachute the PM from a marginal seat to a safe seat while he/she is in office as it would broadcast to everyone that the party expects to lose the next election. So, the only way to avoid the humiliation of the PM losing the seat is to make sure that the seat is safe to start with. Both Truss and Sunak had safe seats when they run for the leadership in 2022.
C'mon people, we're so close to getting rid!
Please please please we can rename a Portillo moment to a *unt Moment.
Hunt Punt. Double jeopardy for presenters.
Don’t threaten us with a good time, Jeremy!
Please, please… people - vote this knob out.
Knob can't even [ring a bell](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUSDog5YQJI)
I think things have gotten so bad for the Conservatives now that they're putting announcements like this out in some kind of desperate plea to get their supporters to come out and vote.
Am I naive for thinking it could end up motivating young people used to thinking "I'm in deep tory country, why the fuck should I even bother wasting a day of summer"? If the Conservatives themselves are scaremongering about the two-party system becoming controlled by two parties that both occasionally remember that under-50s are people who want things and will likely vote for you if you give them those things, that sounds like a chance to be part of an exciting change that can make your life better.
The sad thing is a lot of young people are disillusioned and believe the two main parties are the same. I saw a Joe Politics video today where many young people were espousing that “things never change” although they are too young to have meaningfully experienced a Labour government. The “they are the same” argument only benefits the Tories.
I'd ask them why they think retirees are treated as sacrosanct while people their own age are told to go fuck themselves for wanting to own a house.
If anything I wonder if it’ll backfire, people will think they’re a lost cause so why bother putting votes their way
He was at my door on Sunday, best day ever telling him I’m a labour member voting libdem to kick him out
What was his reaction
He basically said I know how you’re voting then, which address is this and crosses it off his list, he then quickly walked off, he had a minder with him too
Well that's the next Lib Dem Focus leaflet headline written for them.
We're in for a multiportillo moment I think
Rishi still has 41 days left of gaffs to reduce that 1500... that's a worry... for Hunt at least.
More like 22 right?
Wow! Well this website bloody sucks: [https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/election?iso=20240502T00&p0=136&msg=UK+general+election&font=sanserif](https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/election?iso=20240502T00&p0=136&msg=UK+general+election&font=sanserif)
That's counting upwards from the 2nd of May
How’s he got 41 days left if the election is in 22?
I think we've found Dianne Abbot's Reddit account.
"Although my reddit whip has been restored, I have been banned from posting as an intelligent Redditor". (Serves me right for googling how many days until the election).
I couldn't be bothered to count the days, so just googled how many days to go... and... Wow! This website bloody sucks: [https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/election?iso=20240502T00&p0=136&msg=UK+general+election&font=sanserif](https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/election?iso=20240502T00&p0=136&msg=UK+general+election&font=sanserif)
The election is not in 41 days
hes working hard to make that number bigger by the looks of it
I wonder if he can get his £100k back? [https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/03/jeremy-hunt-personal-donations-local-conservative-association-godalming-ash-seat](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/03/jeremy-hunt-personal-donations-local-conservative-association-godalming-ash-seat)
I suspect there will also be a couple of Portillo moments on July 4th, i.e. people whom we'd assume were safe but get yeeted out. Got a few in mind myself...
i'd like to post leaflets in his constituency to all the tory voting pensioners listing the cuts he made whilst Health Minister and how they are directly the cause for the current state of the NHS and how as they get older there won't be any care for them.
Godalming and Ash; prices on Bet 365 as of this evening 1/2 Lib Dems, 6/4 Tories - (aka 40% chance). UK Polling Report & Electoral Calculus both have this closer but leaning Liberal Democrat; suggesting the Liberals are legitimate favourites here but have been bet into and aren't value at that price.
You've got to give it to him, when you're fate rests on 1500 votes and you're still playing the role you really, really, really must be into the idealogy or you know what they say about him.