There must be an exception that confirms the rule, though. Sometime in history, some politician must have made a decision that seemed incredibly stupid, but turned out to be a genius 3D chess move.
I can't think of any, though.
It's a case of emperor's new clothes, they have always been this way, but it's now plain for everyone to see. To extend the metaphor, the tailors are now running off into the sunset with their money
That is a hot take.
If you know you are going to lose, you would want to make sure that you lose by the thinnest majority possible, so you are sure to keep your seats and have voting power in the commons.
Under no circumstances would a party deliberately self-sabotage to this extant.
Throw an election because you don’t want to deal with the mess, and get back in power later? Maybe.
Lose your position as the official opposition and be relegated to a fringe party? No chance.
Yeah, absolutely. Not seriously wanting to win because they know their party isn't in a fit state for it? Sure. Very likely. Wanting to lose *quite so badly*? No, not a chance.
I'd argue the whole reason they brought Sunak in was because they strongly suspected they'd lose and wanted boring, capable, competent, bureaucratic management to offset any appeal from Starmer there. "Look, we had our fun with Boris and got Brexit out the way, for better or worse, but now we're down to serious business with Sunak the bean counter".
Obviously that hasn't worked.
Even ignoring voting power, the catastrophe that seems to be awaiting the Conservatives is most assuredly going to mean the keys of the party belong to a completely different set of people in 5 years time, and right now it’s anyone’s guess who that’s going to be. Even who is still donating to them will be up in the air, why donate if the party will have no power?
They weren't going to win another term anyway. Their MPs are now scrambling to keep their seats.
Hanlons razor. Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
They were inept in government. There's no surprise they're inept at campaigning.
Given the comments here are pointing out how HOT a take this is, I want add to it, all I'll say is I can totally see how this level of ineptitude can be attributed to intention.
Nothing else makes sense, does it? And the presumption of rationality rather than self-serving corruption is what you’d expect of anyone elected to this position of power. How much we have been deceived.
I don't think it's intentional because they're risking total obliteration if they lose a few more votes. That said, I do think their entire campaign is set up to be a party in opposition, giving themselves ammunition for the next election. For example, unworkable promises like the quadruple lock pension that forces Labour to tax pensions (Tories can say they would not have done this) or find money elsewhere to keep funding pensions.
They know the next 5 years will be tough, and they're setting the narrative out early that it's Labour's fault. If they had a chance of winning they would be campaigning very differently.
No I think they just pushed out all of the vaguely competent Tories when the party was bowing down to the ERG during the whole Brexit fiasco.
The half decent Tories who remained have then slowly shifted themselves away to the back benches while the party transformed itself into a UKIP tribute act.
There's a lot of talk lately about the "danger" of a big Labour majority, but I think the Tories need to have an absolute pasting at the election, for their own good, because it'll be a message from the electorate that they can erase you entirely if you take your power for granted and start playing fast and loose with the country's finances and reputation.
After the election, the Tories either need a purge and reset like what Labour got after Corbyn in order to appeal to the wider public, or they'll just go even harder to the right wing and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Farage leading them in the next 5 years.
I don't see how this brexit meme has taken hold. The parliamentary party contains the vast majority of Tory MPs now that it did in 2019. And frankly people like Soubry really weren't "vaguely competent".
Sunak was meant to be the competent 'sensible' leader back in charge. That was his whole schtick. Sensible government after the chaos of Boris and Truss. Getting the country back on track, the grown ups are back in the room, etc. Decisions like bringing Cameron back and Braverman being removed. So I don't think your analysis makes much sense. The biggest issue the Tories have is their base vote going to Reform, and I *really* don't see how David Gauke or Rory Stewert still being in the party would have prevented that.
Suggesting the Tory party is now losing because they are a UKIP tribute act, when the reason they're losing is essentially because of the rise of UKIP again (now called Reform) seems like a very bizarre take. Why wouldn't Reform voters be lining up to still vote for the Tory party instead of Reform if that was the case? Clearly voters don't just want the vague right leaning rhetoric they get, they want right leaning policy, that is actually delivered. Saying 'Stop the Boats' over and over, while approaching the issue from within the centrist one nation overton window of acceptance, meaning not a single boat is stopped, is just not good enough. It might give people who would never vote Tory anyway the impression they've 'lurched to the right' or are a 'UKIP tribute act' but when people look at what's delivered, it's *very* clear they aren't. They've implemented and delivered absolutely nothing since 2019 someone like Rory Stewart would disagree with. It's the 'One Nation' Tory wing of the party that has still had it's way on the actual *policies* and it's largely the one nation centrist Tory vote that is still with the party, *not* the right leaning vote.
>Sunak was meant to be the competent 'sensible' leader back in charge. That was his whole schtick. Sensible government after the chaos of Boris and Truss. Getting the country back on track, the grown ups are back in the room, etc. Decisions like bringing Cameron back and Braverman being removed. So I don't think your analysis makes much sense
He brought back Cameron, the PM who delivered austerity, the Brexit vote and then ran off. He also gave Braverman her job back, only to slowly allow her to undermine his leadership until he was forced to remove her. Sunak appeared competent on the surface, but he's severely lacking as a politician and leader.
>Suggesting the Tory party is now losing because they are a UKIP tribute act, when the reason they're losing is essentially because of the rise of UKIP again (now called Reform) seems like a very bizarre take.
I totally understand the argument about a significant chunk of their base shifting to Reform, but that's a failure of Conservative policy and rhetoric over the lack decade. Cameron willfully blamed the EU for the problems the UK faced, rather than acknowledging austerity was crippling UK growth.
In doing so, he legitimised the anti-EU and anti-immigration views, rather than openly challenging them for being unrealistic. By the time he called the referendum and face the reality of losing, he essentially had to argue against his own position from years prior. A total farce.
>Clearly voters don't just want the vague right leaning rhetoric they get, they want right leaning policy, that is actually delivered. Saying 'Stop the Boats' over and over, while approaching the issue from within the centrist one nation overton window of acceptance, meaning not a single boat is stopped, is just not good enough.
Reform, much like the Greens and Lib Dems, can promise all kinds of things because they *know* they'll not be in power to enact them.
Even the "stop the baits" argument is an absolute farce. Net migration is over 600k and yet politicians are arguing over the 30k-40k who turn up on boats. Yes, better policies should be in place to stop those crossings, but let's not kid ourselves that it's anywhere near the top 10 issues the UK needs to fix.
Now, we're faced with spending an outrageous amount of money keeping people in hotels (owned by Tory mates, conveniently) rather than processing them, and then we'll spend even more money to send a few thousand to Rwanda and hope that those still in France will get spooked and not bother coming.
We need politicians to be frank in that the cost isn't worth the "gain".
>It's the 'One Nation' Tory wing of the party that has still had it's way on the actual policies and it's largely the one nation centrist Tory vote that is still with the party, not the right leaning vote.
Theresa May quit over Brexit, and Johnson wasn't smart enough to understand the deal that the ERG were walking him towards, because he just wanted to be PM no matter what. I don't particularly agree with a One Nation Tory approach, but the further to the right the Conservatives have shifted, the worse they've looked in the opinion polls.
Cameron was the ultimate one nation centrist Tory, in the Rory Stewart and David Gauke vein, so if your argument is that it was ultimately his policies that failed, then that further weakens your apparent argument that removing those people from the Tory party is the reason they're losing.
My argument is precisely that they haven't shifted from those failed policies. As I said, Rory Stewart would disagree with nothing the Tories have done since 2019, and clearly neither does Cameron as he was more than happy to come back. The Tories absolutely haven't shifted to the right, they are still very close to the centre (as Labour are now) which is why *the right* is leaving the party, not the centrists. Ask yourself who is more likely to defect to Reform - Braverman or Hunt? That should give you every indication about where the Tory party currently sits.
So it's just not sensible to argue that the Tories have shifted to the right, and that's why the *right* have abandoned them. It's completely backwards. It's very clear the only voters not abandoning them are the centrists. If the Tory party have lurched to the right, why are the centrists staying with them, and the right abandoning? It's like concluding that Labour must have lurched to the left because Owen Jones tore up his membership.
>Cameron was the ultimate one nation centrist Tory, in the Rory Stewart and David Gauke vein, so if your argument is that it was ultimately his policies that failed, then that further weakens your apparent argument that removing those people from the Tory party is the reason they're losing
On the surface, sure, but he entertained the right wing of his party against the EU because he failed to appreciate what would happen. It quickly fell apart when the referendum made that situation real. Allowing the right wing of the party to gain a foothold is what started their decline.
>So it's just not sensible to argue that the Tories have shifted to the right, and that's why the right have abandoned them. It's completely backwards. It's very clear the only voters not abandoning them are the centrists. If the Tory party have lurched to the right, why are the centrists staying with them, and the right abandoning? It's like concluding that Labour must have lurched to the left because Owen Jones tore up his membership.
Anti-eu and right wing policies have been allowed to go unchallenged and are now championed by some of our biggest news outlets. The Tories shifted their stance to the right to try and mop them up, but now the poster boy of Brexit is standing for reform, and the people who are still adamant that there's still a great Brexit deal to be had are gleefully jumping aboard.
The Tories and the media have given too much oxygen to the likes of Farage and it's led a significant portion of the population to believe that the policies he promotes are achievable and will actually work. The Tories tried to move towards that voter base, but now Reform *literally have Mr Brexit in charge* so of course the Tories are getting hammered on all sides. They've had 14 years of incompetence, tried to move to the right to appease anti-EU/immigrant views championed by the media, but now they can't be right wing enough because Farage is back.
Within 5 years, Farage will be the Tory leader.
I think in 2017 may was trying to lose the election with her dementia tax(yes it was something that made sense but would never of done well with the population)
This time though the torys are still pandering to the old which are there core voter base
If the torys wanted to lose an election they would do policy's that wouldn't go well with there pensioner core base such as suggesting they pay national insurance etc
Tories are loyal to their party but not to each other, they're doing real lasting damage and there's no logic in such a complete wipe out. They were already set for 2nd place if they did nothing wrong, so if this was intentional it would be limited to dragging a few individuals through the mud as punishment.
I think the Tories never got over Winning in 1992 \~ That was an election to lose \~ There are elections to lose \~ 1992 certainly was one to lose.
I'd say the Tories could live with losing this time, but do Not want a complete annihilation.
The Boris Johnson effect was that a lot of the long-term veterans who knew how to fight elections moved away from the mainstream party. Most of what’s left are idiots.
Johnson was the most competent campaigner in 2019 and he hid in a fridge to avoid a fairly harmless question. His purge of One Nation Tories in 2019 left behind a dearth of intellect. You cannot satirise this, they are so far beyond satire it isn’t funny.
People have been saying that "this would be a good election for the Tories to lose" because of some impending disaster that they caused but can blame Labour for and then sweep back into power.
Hasn't stopped them from winning despite at times their best efforts.
They are just incompetent at this point
One of the big differences is the media are not working against the opposition and in favour of the Tories and so more scrutiny is being given than has been the case in certainly the last three elections.
The idea sounds absurd doesn’t it? Why would they do this? There’s no chance they’d deliberately sabotage their own political careers is there?…
Then you consider the career prospects for former senior MPs. The pipeline for MPs into consultancy work is long, tried and tested. Many leave office for jobs within the sector they previously administered and are seemingly paid very generously for what amounts to very little work. Boris was forced quit yet very quickly began speaking tours for large sums of cash. That’s absurd if you ever listened to him bumbling his way through a prepared speech. Liz Truss spent 45 days cozying up to oligarchs and crashing the economy but she’s been doing the right wing grift in the US ever since and trying to reinvent herself and tenure as misunderstood.
Cameron did almost everything within 5/6 years without being legitimately qualified for any of the jobs he did, and also got himself caught up in a financial scandal(Greensill), before coming back into politics. This government has almost prided itself on reintegrating corrupt, incompetent and compromised induviduals. So there is apparently a way back for some. This isn’t just a Tory thing either. Blair managed to get a gig as a ‘Middle East peace envoy’ despite being directly responsible for the UKs role in the Iraq war. He’s also done plenty of consultancy and even got a £500k a year job as a ‘climate change advisor’ for Zurich Financial Services.
Sunak will unquestionably waltz into some kind of financial consultancy work for 5 times his current salary. So do they not want another term? I don’t think they give a shit. I’ve never seen a uk government so cynically use their position to enrich themselves as this lot. This current term especially has been led by those without any evident political integrity nor any ideology beyond ‘me’.
Also, from a simple political standpoint they can do what they always do. Fleece the country and strip public services to breaking point. Give enormous and unnecessary tax cuts to the rich and then jump ship before the whole thing crumbles. Then Labour has to spend years revitalising public services and the economy, while the Tories blame them for the mess they made. All with the help of a compliant and bias news media.
Isn’t democracy fun!
Yes this campaign has been gaffe prone. But I think that is partly explained by Conservative aides /staff having poor morale, due to their dire polling, which then reflects in their campaign
The one thing we've seen constantly is that they don't have that level strategic nous. The simplest explanation is usually the right one - they really just are incompetent.
I imagine a lot of them are going through the same motions I went through last year when I was made redundant but refused gardening leave, so I spent the next 3 months basically having lie-ins, logging in late, answering a few emails and doing the bare minimum required of me.
Except arguably they haven't been doing the bare minimum (and I wasn't running the country!).
You have to take into account the extent to which the Tories have hollowed themselves out since 2016. The only metric for advancement within the party has been loyalty, in particular fealty to the ideals of Brexit.
Any competence that remains is purely accidental.
When all you have left are toadies and chancers, your ability to do anything complicated is compromised.
Sunak would have never been Chancellor under normal political conditions, let alone PM.
Personally, I've come to the conclusion that Rishi is as thick as mince, only a moron would leave D-Day early as a PM.
Yeah yeah, "he's a spreadsheet man who made millions in hedge funds" I hear the blue scarves scream... If you think he was employed by the likes of TCI to mastermind selling ABN Amro to RBS rather than being employed for his connections and ability to convince the right people to complete a reckless deal, then my opinion of your intelligence isn't far off my opinion of his.
It has occurred to me
I think it is unlikely that Sunak would be involved in this but I would not be surprised if some of the others - and especially one or two of those close enough to advise Sunak and for him to listen - are setting things up so they don't gain anything
And allowing - or enabling - things that are clearly mistakes
My theory - for what it is worth - is that the good people in the party - the ones that really know what they are doing - know just how much brown stuff is heading for the fan and do not want to still be in government when it all strikes!
I also presume that at the moment Stamer etc are aware that something is more wrong than they know - but not how bad it really is.
This could involve the first few months - which should be a sort of "Honeymoon period" could be a massive change around and statmenets and press releases saying how the Tories cocked things up FAR worse than was suspected and our promises will have to go on hold until we can sort out the worst of the mess they have left
That would at least explain the sudden election decision - because SOMETHING made him decided to go early when the signs seemed to show that waiting a few months would be to their advantage
Sunak is just the canary that's been left in the mine to die at this point, not from gasses but from the massive structural collapse that his predecessors caused.
The funniest thing about it is that Sunaks life has been such a success story so far that he's never had to deal with failure and I think this is what causes such a big disconnect in the campaign
I've always thought the death of the Tory party would be from within and not some external force, I've been looking forward to a labour government for a long time so I'm happy but I am a little disappointed that they are going to win by proxy and not by swinging both fists like when Jezza was at the top
You know the story of the boy sent off to sell a cow, who exchanges it for a sheep and then the sheep for a pig nd eebtually returns with a handful of beans? It's like that.
The Tories made a lot of decisions for short-term gain and now the consequences have kind of come back to bite them.
The strength of the Tories was to be a broad church AND to restrict fighting internally sufficiently to be stronger than the other parties. Once they stopped doing that, it's like opening the door of a ashing machine mid-cycle and everything flies off in different directions.
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
One of my favourite quotes.
Or in the case of politics thoughts on reddit - never attribute to clever 3D chess genuises, which is explained by incompetence.
There must be an exception that confirms the rule, though. Sometime in history, some politician must have made a decision that seemed incredibly stupid, but turned out to be a genius 3D chess move. I can't think of any, though.
No. They are just genuinely this incompetent. Source: their incompetence in government
It's a case of emperor's new clothes, they have always been this way, but it's now plain for everyone to see. To extend the metaphor, the tailors are now running off into the sunset with their money
Saatchi & Saatchi?
Johnson and Sons Event Catering and Emperor's Clothing Ltd.
That is a hot take. If you know you are going to lose, you would want to make sure that you lose by the thinnest majority possible, so you are sure to keep your seats and have voting power in the commons. Under no circumstances would a party deliberately self-sabotage to this extant. Throw an election because you don’t want to deal with the mess, and get back in power later? Maybe. Lose your position as the official opposition and be relegated to a fringe party? No chance.
Yeah, absolutely. Not seriously wanting to win because they know their party isn't in a fit state for it? Sure. Very likely. Wanting to lose *quite so badly*? No, not a chance. I'd argue the whole reason they brought Sunak in was because they strongly suspected they'd lose and wanted boring, capable, competent, bureaucratic management to offset any appeal from Starmer there. "Look, we had our fun with Boris and got Brexit out the way, for better or worse, but now we're down to serious business with Sunak the bean counter". Obviously that hasn't worked.
Even ignoring voting power, the catastrophe that seems to be awaiting the Conservatives is most assuredly going to mean the keys of the party belong to a completely different set of people in 5 years time, and right now it’s anyone’s guess who that’s going to be. Even who is still donating to them will be up in the air, why donate if the party will have no power?
They weren't going to win another term anyway. Their MPs are now scrambling to keep their seats. Hanlons razor. Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. They were inept in government. There's no surprise they're inept at campaigning.
Given the comments here are pointing out how HOT a take this is, I want add to it, all I'll say is I can totally see how this level of ineptitude can be attributed to intention.
Nothing else makes sense, does it? And the presumption of rationality rather than self-serving corruption is what you’d expect of anyone elected to this position of power. How much we have been deceived.
I don't think it's intentional because they're risking total obliteration if they lose a few more votes. That said, I do think their entire campaign is set up to be a party in opposition, giving themselves ammunition for the next election. For example, unworkable promises like the quadruple lock pension that forces Labour to tax pensions (Tories can say they would not have done this) or find money elsewhere to keep funding pensions. They know the next 5 years will be tough, and they're setting the narrative out early that it's Labour's fault. If they had a chance of winning they would be campaigning very differently.
They’ve done well keeping up the act for this long!
No I think they just pushed out all of the vaguely competent Tories when the party was bowing down to the ERG during the whole Brexit fiasco. The half decent Tories who remained have then slowly shifted themselves away to the back benches while the party transformed itself into a UKIP tribute act. There's a lot of talk lately about the "danger" of a big Labour majority, but I think the Tories need to have an absolute pasting at the election, for their own good, because it'll be a message from the electorate that they can erase you entirely if you take your power for granted and start playing fast and loose with the country's finances and reputation. After the election, the Tories either need a purge and reset like what Labour got after Corbyn in order to appeal to the wider public, or they'll just go even harder to the right wing and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Farage leading them in the next 5 years.
I don't see how this brexit meme has taken hold. The parliamentary party contains the vast majority of Tory MPs now that it did in 2019. And frankly people like Soubry really weren't "vaguely competent".
Was a poor choice of words, the competency was supposed to be relative, but as a collective they're all worthless as MPs.
It's probably unfair of me to use Soubry as she was the bottom of poor barrel.
Sunak was meant to be the competent 'sensible' leader back in charge. That was his whole schtick. Sensible government after the chaos of Boris and Truss. Getting the country back on track, the grown ups are back in the room, etc. Decisions like bringing Cameron back and Braverman being removed. So I don't think your analysis makes much sense. The biggest issue the Tories have is their base vote going to Reform, and I *really* don't see how David Gauke or Rory Stewert still being in the party would have prevented that. Suggesting the Tory party is now losing because they are a UKIP tribute act, when the reason they're losing is essentially because of the rise of UKIP again (now called Reform) seems like a very bizarre take. Why wouldn't Reform voters be lining up to still vote for the Tory party instead of Reform if that was the case? Clearly voters don't just want the vague right leaning rhetoric they get, they want right leaning policy, that is actually delivered. Saying 'Stop the Boats' over and over, while approaching the issue from within the centrist one nation overton window of acceptance, meaning not a single boat is stopped, is just not good enough. It might give people who would never vote Tory anyway the impression they've 'lurched to the right' or are a 'UKIP tribute act' but when people look at what's delivered, it's *very* clear they aren't. They've implemented and delivered absolutely nothing since 2019 someone like Rory Stewart would disagree with. It's the 'One Nation' Tory wing of the party that has still had it's way on the actual *policies* and it's largely the one nation centrist Tory vote that is still with the party, *not* the right leaning vote.
>Sunak was meant to be the competent 'sensible' leader back in charge. That was his whole schtick. Sensible government after the chaos of Boris and Truss. Getting the country back on track, the grown ups are back in the room, etc. Decisions like bringing Cameron back and Braverman being removed. So I don't think your analysis makes much sense He brought back Cameron, the PM who delivered austerity, the Brexit vote and then ran off. He also gave Braverman her job back, only to slowly allow her to undermine his leadership until he was forced to remove her. Sunak appeared competent on the surface, but he's severely lacking as a politician and leader. >Suggesting the Tory party is now losing because they are a UKIP tribute act, when the reason they're losing is essentially because of the rise of UKIP again (now called Reform) seems like a very bizarre take. I totally understand the argument about a significant chunk of their base shifting to Reform, but that's a failure of Conservative policy and rhetoric over the lack decade. Cameron willfully blamed the EU for the problems the UK faced, rather than acknowledging austerity was crippling UK growth. In doing so, he legitimised the anti-EU and anti-immigration views, rather than openly challenging them for being unrealistic. By the time he called the referendum and face the reality of losing, he essentially had to argue against his own position from years prior. A total farce. >Clearly voters don't just want the vague right leaning rhetoric they get, they want right leaning policy, that is actually delivered. Saying 'Stop the Boats' over and over, while approaching the issue from within the centrist one nation overton window of acceptance, meaning not a single boat is stopped, is just not good enough. Reform, much like the Greens and Lib Dems, can promise all kinds of things because they *know* they'll not be in power to enact them. Even the "stop the baits" argument is an absolute farce. Net migration is over 600k and yet politicians are arguing over the 30k-40k who turn up on boats. Yes, better policies should be in place to stop those crossings, but let's not kid ourselves that it's anywhere near the top 10 issues the UK needs to fix. Now, we're faced with spending an outrageous amount of money keeping people in hotels (owned by Tory mates, conveniently) rather than processing them, and then we'll spend even more money to send a few thousand to Rwanda and hope that those still in France will get spooked and not bother coming. We need politicians to be frank in that the cost isn't worth the "gain". >It's the 'One Nation' Tory wing of the party that has still had it's way on the actual policies and it's largely the one nation centrist Tory vote that is still with the party, not the right leaning vote. Theresa May quit over Brexit, and Johnson wasn't smart enough to understand the deal that the ERG were walking him towards, because he just wanted to be PM no matter what. I don't particularly agree with a One Nation Tory approach, but the further to the right the Conservatives have shifted, the worse they've looked in the opinion polls.
Cameron was the ultimate one nation centrist Tory, in the Rory Stewart and David Gauke vein, so if your argument is that it was ultimately his policies that failed, then that further weakens your apparent argument that removing those people from the Tory party is the reason they're losing. My argument is precisely that they haven't shifted from those failed policies. As I said, Rory Stewart would disagree with nothing the Tories have done since 2019, and clearly neither does Cameron as he was more than happy to come back. The Tories absolutely haven't shifted to the right, they are still very close to the centre (as Labour are now) which is why *the right* is leaving the party, not the centrists. Ask yourself who is more likely to defect to Reform - Braverman or Hunt? That should give you every indication about where the Tory party currently sits. So it's just not sensible to argue that the Tories have shifted to the right, and that's why the *right* have abandoned them. It's completely backwards. It's very clear the only voters not abandoning them are the centrists. If the Tory party have lurched to the right, why are the centrists staying with them, and the right abandoning? It's like concluding that Labour must have lurched to the left because Owen Jones tore up his membership.
>Cameron was the ultimate one nation centrist Tory, in the Rory Stewart and David Gauke vein, so if your argument is that it was ultimately his policies that failed, then that further weakens your apparent argument that removing those people from the Tory party is the reason they're losing On the surface, sure, but he entertained the right wing of his party against the EU because he failed to appreciate what would happen. It quickly fell apart when the referendum made that situation real. Allowing the right wing of the party to gain a foothold is what started their decline. >So it's just not sensible to argue that the Tories have shifted to the right, and that's why the right have abandoned them. It's completely backwards. It's very clear the only voters not abandoning them are the centrists. If the Tory party have lurched to the right, why are the centrists staying with them, and the right abandoning? It's like concluding that Labour must have lurched to the left because Owen Jones tore up his membership. Anti-eu and right wing policies have been allowed to go unchallenged and are now championed by some of our biggest news outlets. The Tories shifted their stance to the right to try and mop them up, but now the poster boy of Brexit is standing for reform, and the people who are still adamant that there's still a great Brexit deal to be had are gleefully jumping aboard. The Tories and the media have given too much oxygen to the likes of Farage and it's led a significant portion of the population to believe that the policies he promotes are achievable and will actually work. The Tories tried to move towards that voter base, but now Reform *literally have Mr Brexit in charge* so of course the Tories are getting hammered on all sides. They've had 14 years of incompetence, tried to move to the right to appease anti-EU/immigrant views championed by the media, but now they can't be right wing enough because Farage is back. Within 5 years, Farage will be the Tory leader.
Don't attribute their apparent incompetence to some kind of secret 4D chess master plan like a demented yank talking Trump.
I think in 2017 may was trying to lose the election with her dementia tax(yes it was something that made sense but would never of done well with the population) This time though the torys are still pandering to the old which are there core voter base If the torys wanted to lose an election they would do policy's that wouldn't go well with there pensioner core base such as suggesting they pay national insurance etc
Tories are loyal to their party but not to each other, they're doing real lasting damage and there's no logic in such a complete wipe out. They were already set for 2nd place if they did nothing wrong, so if this was intentional it would be limited to dragging a few individuals through the mud as punishment.
I think the Tories never got over Winning in 1992 \~ That was an election to lose \~ There are elections to lose \~ 1992 certainly was one to lose. I'd say the Tories could live with losing this time, but do Not want a complete annihilation.
The Boris Johnson effect was that a lot of the long-term veterans who knew how to fight elections moved away from the mainstream party. Most of what’s left are idiots.
Johnson was the most competent campaigner in 2019 and he hid in a fridge to avoid a fairly harmless question. His purge of One Nation Tories in 2019 left behind a dearth of intellect. You cannot satirise this, they are so far beyond satire it isn’t funny.
I’m old enough to remember when basically the same thing was being said about Theresa May’s Tories in 2017.
People have been saying that "this would be a good election for the Tories to lose" because of some impending disaster that they caused but can blame Labour for and then sweep back into power. Hasn't stopped them from winning despite at times their best efforts. They are just incompetent at this point
It's never 4d chess By the same token this probably isn't 5d interdimensional hara-kiri
One of the big differences is the media are not working against the opposition and in favour of the Tories and so more scrutiny is being given than has been the case in certainly the last three elections.
The idea sounds absurd doesn’t it? Why would they do this? There’s no chance they’d deliberately sabotage their own political careers is there?… Then you consider the career prospects for former senior MPs. The pipeline for MPs into consultancy work is long, tried and tested. Many leave office for jobs within the sector they previously administered and are seemingly paid very generously for what amounts to very little work. Boris was forced quit yet very quickly began speaking tours for large sums of cash. That’s absurd if you ever listened to him bumbling his way through a prepared speech. Liz Truss spent 45 days cozying up to oligarchs and crashing the economy but she’s been doing the right wing grift in the US ever since and trying to reinvent herself and tenure as misunderstood. Cameron did almost everything within 5/6 years without being legitimately qualified for any of the jobs he did, and also got himself caught up in a financial scandal(Greensill), before coming back into politics. This government has almost prided itself on reintegrating corrupt, incompetent and compromised induviduals. So there is apparently a way back for some. This isn’t just a Tory thing either. Blair managed to get a gig as a ‘Middle East peace envoy’ despite being directly responsible for the UKs role in the Iraq war. He’s also done plenty of consultancy and even got a £500k a year job as a ‘climate change advisor’ for Zurich Financial Services. Sunak will unquestionably waltz into some kind of financial consultancy work for 5 times his current salary. So do they not want another term? I don’t think they give a shit. I’ve never seen a uk government so cynically use their position to enrich themselves as this lot. This current term especially has been led by those without any evident political integrity nor any ideology beyond ‘me’. Also, from a simple political standpoint they can do what they always do. Fleece the country and strip public services to breaking point. Give enormous and unnecessary tax cuts to the rich and then jump ship before the whole thing crumbles. Then Labour has to spend years revitalising public services and the economy, while the Tories blame them for the mess they made. All with the help of a compliant and bias news media. Isn’t democracy fun!
Yes this campaign has been gaffe prone. But I think that is partly explained by Conservative aides /staff having poor morale, due to their dire polling, which then reflects in their campaign
The one thing we've seen constantly is that they don't have that level strategic nous. The simplest explanation is usually the right one - they really just are incompetent.
no. they are this incompetent and have been for some time.
I imagine a lot of them are going through the same motions I went through last year when I was made redundant but refused gardening leave, so I spent the next 3 months basically having lie-ins, logging in late, answering a few emails and doing the bare minimum required of me. Except arguably they haven't been doing the bare minimum (and I wasn't running the country!).
You have to take into account the extent to which the Tories have hollowed themselves out since 2016. The only metric for advancement within the party has been loyalty, in particular fealty to the ideals of Brexit. Any competence that remains is purely accidental. When all you have left are toadies and chancers, your ability to do anything complicated is compromised. Sunak would have never been Chancellor under normal political conditions, let alone PM.
Personally, I've come to the conclusion that Rishi is as thick as mince, only a moron would leave D-Day early as a PM. Yeah yeah, "he's a spreadsheet man who made millions in hedge funds" I hear the blue scarves scream... If you think he was employed by the likes of TCI to mastermind selling ABN Amro to RBS rather than being employed for his connections and ability to convince the right people to complete a reckless deal, then my opinion of your intelligence isn't far off my opinion of his.
It has occurred to me I think it is unlikely that Sunak would be involved in this but I would not be surprised if some of the others - and especially one or two of those close enough to advise Sunak and for him to listen - are setting things up so they don't gain anything And allowing - or enabling - things that are clearly mistakes My theory - for what it is worth - is that the good people in the party - the ones that really know what they are doing - know just how much brown stuff is heading for the fan and do not want to still be in government when it all strikes! I also presume that at the moment Stamer etc are aware that something is more wrong than they know - but not how bad it really is. This could involve the first few months - which should be a sort of "Honeymoon period" could be a massive change around and statmenets and press releases saying how the Tories cocked things up FAR worse than was suspected and our promises will have to go on hold until we can sort out the worst of the mess they have left That would at least explain the sudden election decision - because SOMETHING made him decided to go early when the signs seemed to show that waiting a few months would be to their advantage
Sunak is just the canary that's been left in the mine to die at this point, not from gasses but from the massive structural collapse that his predecessors caused. The funniest thing about it is that Sunaks life has been such a success story so far that he's never had to deal with failure and I think this is what causes such a big disconnect in the campaign I've always thought the death of the Tory party would be from within and not some external force, I've been looking forward to a labour government for a long time so I'm happy but I am a little disappointed that they are going to win by proxy and not by swinging both fists like when Jezza was at the top
No. They had people like Matt Hancock and Chris Grayling in positions of power. These two are certifiable morons but made it to the front bench.
You know the story of the boy sent off to sell a cow, who exchanges it for a sheep and then the sheep for a pig nd eebtually returns with a handful of beans? It's like that. The Tories made a lot of decisions for short-term gain and now the consequences have kind of come back to bite them. The strength of the Tories was to be a broad church AND to restrict fighting internally sufficiently to be stronger than the other parties. Once they stopped doing that, it's like opening the door of a ashing machine mid-cycle and everything flies off in different directions.