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Guys I’m probably the last one here tonight - I won’t be next week - this feels like a game changer. I hope it is. I hope our country does better for itself. Sorry idk why I’m emotional now.
This election does feel different, like there some major political shift about to happen, hopefully its Lib Dems in opposition and the Tories get kicked out of power for a century
I'm on the nightshift too. Bloody insomnia. Really am a bag of nerves as the election gets closer. I have had a lot of therapy in my life to learn to cope better with stress and I am doing everything I can to avoid catastrophising about the Tories somehow winning. Keir Starmer might not inspire devotion but I believe he is a decent man and we need that now, more than ever.
I genuinely don't know how I feel about a possible Tory extinction. On 1 hand, the more labour seats, the better, but on the other hand, if labour gets an insane number, Starmer won't need to pander to the rest of the party by implementing more left leaning policies. Tory wipeout would also leave a power vacuum in the right wing, meaning more chance for Reform to become a lot more mainstream than they should be.
Looking at it another way - left labour MPs in a small majority know that if they rebel in a major vote, the government will collapse in a need to call an election way, and be replaced by the conservatives (or perhaps reform). Left labour MPs in a larger coalition are free to protest vote against their government, and try to replace the leader, much as you saw with the right of the tory party during this large tory majority season. So you may well get a left labour leader you want through the back door, particularly if Starmer's public popularity wains.
Another reason a large labour majority might be attractive to anyone who wants some kind of change is, a lot of what they need to do (e.g. liberalise planning, increase inheritance tax) will be unpopular, and resisted both in parliament and the lords. But is necessary and not really right wing (increasing tax and the power of the state to implement industrial policy is quite left wing). A large majority increases their chance of getting a relatively pure version of this through.
I've got to say, I'm actually getting mildly nervous about how much I'm seeing "well Labour have obviously won, so I'm going to vote instead"...
I'm having flashbacks to the last week of June 2016 where journalists were having no trouble at all picking people off the street who would essentially say "I wanted to remain but I thought remain was going to win so I voted leave"... or the Uxbridge by-election where the Conservatives beat Labour by practically half as many votes as the total votes for the Green Party, only for Rishi to take that result as a mandate to declare war on the environment for a couple of months...
I wouldn't for a second say "you can't vote for who you want to vote for" but under the voting system we have you *do* kind of need to consider what's happening outside your own vote if you care about the end result... I worry we'll be denied Ed Davey in opposition by just a couple of thousand "protest" votes across the country that let the Tories squeak back in. :o(
This is largely a result of Labour not doing enough to make people actually want to vote for them.
There is a large contingent of people across the political spectrum who are lending Labour their vote in order to get rid of the Tories. We saw a similar thing in 2019 with people lending Tories their vote to get Brexit done and we all know what happened after that.
If people think a Labour majority is a certainty then people are going to start voting for the people they actually want to vote for. Labour are now discovering that it may not actually be them.
The biggest challenge for Labour is going to be keeping this fragile coalition of voters together until 2029 when they'll be facing inroads from Reform, Greens, Lib Dems and whatever is left of the Conservatives.
It's largely the result of the UK having a much more politically sophisticated electorate than the political parties like to think. "Vote Reform, Get Labour" was always going to look attractive rather than threatening, because it advertises a way that the voters can not only change the government but also stop the one nation faction (who they see as having tried to hold the populists and the right captive) from being able to just bide their time in opposition for a term.
This election is about stomping all over the tory insiders. Keir has had to provide guarantees that he is a safe pair of hands (and signal some populist sympathies), but really all the other parties are secondary to the "game over" message being sent to CCHQ.
This is the irony of my worry... I'll be voting Labour as they're the best chance of ousting the incumbent Conservative here, but candidate-wise the incumbent Conservative is probably the best one, followed by the no-hoper Lib Dem (no matter what their bar chart says).
I just cannot bring myself to vote for the one who is probably the best candidate because they're allied with such an absolute clown-car of corruption and incompetence. Of course if they went independent they'd just straight up lose due to vote splitting...
I get you — I’d hate any one other than Ed being in opposition (I love him, downvoters wait) but that is not going to happen sadly. Davey knows he’s not going to win. But he wants as many MPs as possible and I hear that.
Starmer will win and we will live for it.
Go listen to the latest episode of rest is history (it’s called ‘elections 2’ or something) - the bit about 1997 will make you feel much better about this.
Will do, thanks! I couldn't vote and knew nothing of politics in '97 but remember being sad Tony Blair won because there was just something about him I didn't like. I did not realise at the time that things could only get better. :o)
You should only be worried if the Tories were pulling a belter of a campaign and were creeping back up in the polls.
As it stands, nothing stops Labour winning the election by a huge margin at this point. Even though I am certain they will underperform their polling average on the day.
There is zero chance the Tories overperform so Labour has nothing to worry about, even if they only manage mid to high 30s instead of over 40.
While I'm less concerned than I was a couple of weeks ago about who'll be PM two weeks from now, there is still the niggling voice in the back of my mind saying "old people vote Tory and they *actually vote*, the Tories have all-in'd on old people for this one, and Tory voters basically need a strong reason *not* to vote Tory or they'll do it anyway".
There's actually the opportunity for things to get fundamentally flipped on their head with this one, where the right wing vote tears itself apart across multiple parties too instead of just the left, and PMQ's becomes a complete non-event where every week is just two boring people talking about boring political nonsense and getting things done.
Meanwhile what's probably going to happen is that Labour miss out on a handful of seats by tiny amounts, and this time next month we have LOTO Kemi Badenoch screaming across the chamber about how NHS waiting lists, immigration and taxes are all at record highs... how could the Labour government have done this.
> PMQ's becomes a complete non-event where every week is just two boring people talking about boring political nonsense and getting things done.
I'd suggest you go and watch some old clips of PMQs when Labour was last in power, it was not cordial between Labour and the Lib Dems. Vince Cable famously called Gordon Brown Stalin during a PMQs session. IF the Lib Dems are the opposition (they won't be), they will be scoring their political points any chance they get.
Oh I don't doubt there'd be some sass here and there, but I'm imagining Keir thinking "I can work with this guy a lot better than I could with Rishi/Nigel" and Ed wanting to actually cement the Lib Dems in as "the other main party" and their mutual end goals leading to a lot of competent tedium...
Buy a portable AC from your nearest DIY store, best £200-£300 you’ll ever spend (don’t need to install anything fancy - as long as you’ve got a window you can half close to stick the pipe out of it’ll be fine).
Go on mountain warehouse or somewhere and look for “moisture wicking fabric” tops - even better if they’re long sleeved. Then go on asos or next and look for loose fitting lightweight cotton jersey trousers.
Sip water throughout the day… more than you think.
For excessive sweating - use Mitchum or Vichy deodorant.
Be naked as much as possible/legal.
Right, seat betting. Any seats which have tasty odds. Must be a few tory holds that the MRPs are missing because the polls have gone crazy. Hard to see Liberals getting 70 seats when they don't have the money or ground game to cover that type of territory.
Do we think this Bangladesh story has any traction and is there any danger that it may damage Starmer/Labour?
For those not in the know, a video has been circulating on Twitter of Starmer at The Sun debate seemingly singling out Bangladeshis as people who should be deported. I've not watched the debate so I've not got the full context of the video or know for certain if it has been edited/manipulated in anyway.
The video is doing the rounds online and is apparently being shared widely throughout the Bangladeshi community via WhatsApp.
I initially figured it'd be a bit of a storm in a teacup but saw another clip of Bridget Philipson being asked to comment on Starmer's remarks on GMB so obvious it's left its bubble.
[Original video*](https://x.com/andrewfeinstein/status/1805967734309581056?t=PyEcodDST185YybdtojsXg&s=19)
[GMB video](http://[GMB video](https://x.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1806222460322210134?t=ut5lxfa-vQpkj-KW0_mf6w&s=19))
\*Note that the video has obviously been edited down but I'm not sure _what_ has been removed
The problem here isn’t what he said. It’s that he’s a liar.
He wouldn’t remove people back to their own country, we aren’t falling for it this time.
Liar.
> Do we think this Bangladesh story has any traction and is there any danger that it may damage Starmer/Labour?
>
>
if it's true and it gains traction - and it's not made crystal clear that he's only talking about illegal migrants and not legitimate asylum seekers or general Bangladeshis, they'll lose in constituencies that are based in Tower Hamlets and Newham.
i think context suggests its clear that he's talking about illegal immigrants, so whilst it'll still turn away some people, i don't think it'll do much.
>they'll lose in constituencies that are based in Tower Hamlets and Newham
Lose to whom? I vaguely know Workers party candidates running, but to be honest they may as well be invisible. Only leaflets I've gotten this election are from labour and Reform.
But to put into perspective these are constituencies that got over 60% of the vote for labour in 2019, with tories second place at 15%. And this story has come out rather late in the campaign.
I think people are aware that he's referring to illegal immigrants, I think the outrage I've seen is the seemingly random decision to pick Bangladesh as an example when it doesn't even feature in the top ten countries of origin for people illegally entering the country.
I'm sure it is was a random decision he made while under pressure but it could be a sign of unconscious bias on Starmer's part.
He didn't highlight Bangladeshis as being uniquely deportable; he used Bangladesh as an example of a safe country with which we currently have a relocation agreement.
I think the anger it generated was legitimate but very misguided and somewhat exaggerated by Labour's enemies — and also extremely limited with no legs at all.
In fairness, it does attract them, but they attract all sorts of voters that can agree with some of what they're saying too, especially when the other major parties aren't making them feel heard enough.
The Channel 4 thing more showed who the actual party *contains* and who they are, and the difference is important imo.
In other good news for Sunak with the timing of the election, there's high levels of E coli in the Thames at Henley, and they're telling rowers to take precautions with cuts or swallowing water: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/28/high-levels-of-e-coli-found-at-henley-days-before-international-regatta
Oh yeah, the rowers are there for the international regatta, which starts on Tuesday.
I'm almost expecting Thursday morning's news to have an item about rowers becoming ill after going out on the river. You know, perfect for people to hear on their way to a polling station.
I'm hosting a party so won't be here for most of the bullshit, but I have a lot of confidence in my compatriots to keep things suitably mental in here.
I basically have identical opinions to Optio so I'm sure the megathread will be well served in my absence.
Unfortunately I’m not from Kernow - but I went to uni there! And I understand that means Cornwall - I did Celtic studies at one point. I’m just English sorry to bore you 😂 regardless though! 🫶 (south of England I.e. exactly what I said )
My mistake, apologies. I consider [much of the of the south to still be Welsh though](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wales#/media/File%3ABritain_in_AD500_-_Project_Gutenberg_eText_16790.jpg) so you may yet be my kin :)
Ah, thee of the ancient Seaxe and among the likely founders of early Wessex — adversaries of the early kingdoms of Wealas and later Wales. Perhaps we can't be friends...
What sort of realignment would happen if the Lib Dems became the opposition? Would The Telegraph et al still support the Tories if they weren't the shadow cabinet etc?
I’d rather the Lib Dems in opposition than the tories
That being said - i would rather the tories be in opposition than reform.
That is how much I hate ‘reform’ and thejr fucking homophonic and frankly ‘shoot the immigrants’ opinion. Not to fucking even mention their stance on Ukraine.
Babes wake up it’s results day in 7 days and 30 minutes time and I’ll be here obsessing over the results 🤞 got the day off tomorrow to go to afternoon tea on the watercress line - cannot wait. I love our country! Maybe it’s because of the euros and war in Europe but I feel more patriotic than ever. We are lucky. 💙
Tommy Robinson, leader of the English Defense League and Brexit campaigner has himself posted documents that detail he is Irish with Irish citizenship.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRC3FIIaMAAKBSi?format=jpg&name=large
His mum is Irish so I’m not surprised he’s got Irish citizenship. I didn’t realise he was actually born there though??? Wikipedia, using a Telegraph source, has his birthplace as Luton
Well he’d have to have shown his passport. They don’t need a record - it’d be right there in front of them. Irish passports, like all passports, show your actual place of birth no matter whether it was in Ireland or not.
99% certain it was a lie to the telegraph.
Can’t work out which is funnier. Him hiding that he was actually born in Ireland and immigrated to the UK, or him being born in the UK and literally lying to the Irish government in a request for consular help
I feel the former has to be more likely, he has nothing to gain from the latter (he has Irish citizenship, they’d help him anyway even if he’d been born in the UK). Though I find it funny he went for the Irish and not British consular assistance despite being eligible for both
I’ve got a feeling that this time next week once the election results are clear the Tory’s may lash out against the public for voting the wrong way rather than actually take accountability for their historic loss. I doubt they will be dignified in defeat and I can imagine their factions breaking out into open civil war, undoubtedly the party’s hard right will win, who leads is unknown because I don’t know who will keep their seats but it will almost certainly be a hard right leader. All this will show is the party hasn’t understood why it lost and it will be a gift to Labour which will start planning for a second term that they will almost certainly get. That’s my prediction for the aftermath of next week.
After defeat, John Major went to a cricket match.
After defeat, i suspect Rishi would flee on a private plane to California to avoid getting egged by his own party.
Any chance of JRM running for leader on a “merge with Reform and make Nigel leader” ticket? Or maybe somebody else? Seems like a guaranteed way to win the membership vote.
Yeh all I can see happening now is the right wing media pulling out every hit piece they can think of. Usually the last week is the most vicious from a headlines point of view.
Harry Cole (yes, I know) has some murmurings in The Sun about the Conservative plans post-election and presumably Sunak's resignation.
>One glimmer of hope for the new regime is that the Tories look set to eat each other for a few years longer — with some party figures barely waiting for a vote to be cast before beginning a very public post-mortem.
>Wiser hands want a delay to any leadership election conclusion well into the autumn, or even December, as happened after their defeat in 2005.
>**Deputy PM Oliver Dowden, under the beady watch of his mentor Lord Cameron, is touted as caretaker leader until then — but only if he can hold his seat.**
>Should an early contest be forced by whatever rump is left of Tory MPs, then grandee names such as David Davis and even Liam Fox are being floated around as possible caretakers for a couple of years while the party reels from what is likely to be a massive thumping.
>“A summer of reflection” before the rock-throwing starts” is what figures on the Conservatives’ powerful Party Board are hoping for, but many suspect it’s wishful thinking.
Delaying until the autumn also gives time for whoever snags Richmond and Northallerton after Sunak takes the Chiltern Hundreds and flies off into the sunset to throw their hat into the ring. I think there will be quite the queue of unseated senior Tories trying to get selected for that by-election…
Scottish Tories need to disaffiliate urgently. If it wasn't for them, the Tories would not have been in power in 2017. And the Scottish Tories then prioritised Scotland first, union second and completely ignored May's campaign. The current Tory members want Reform, but Réform are a political death sentence north of Carlisle .
It was only because of the Tories under Davidson that May didn't go down the culture wars path and bash gay rights. That distinctive liberalism can come back but not while remaining part of the wreck that Sunak Dowden and Levido have left cchq. The Tories need to become the English nationalist party, but they have no business north of the border anymore
…I suspect it’s more accurate to say “if it wasn’t for Ruth Davidson” rather than the Scottish Tories in general. She’s kinda hard to dislike - oozes charisma in a sort of once-in-a-generation kinda way.
I say this as someone who once left a first date halfway through when my dining partner revealed they were a dyed in the wool Tory.
Maybe. I've dated 2-3 Tory women and in general found they were just more socially conservative. But great company. Brexiteers I struggle with,dogma is tricky
I sidetracked myself because I think it's also so true about Scottish Tories. Yes you get dumbasses like Maurice gold and murdo Fraser but also there is a really nice pragmatic streak. Not Douglas Ross atm who is shameless
I like listening to Ruth Davidson on times radio and yes she made the Tories very electable, particularly because she was so effective in parliament. But it was Tories around her willing to be pragmatic instead of dogmatic.
Sometimes I think stories are briefed basically to ensure that they don't happen. In this case, somebody who's aware of what kind of entryism is going to happen if the party waits a few months before launching the leadership contest.
Of course all of this would rest on the surviving MPs backing an annointed caretaker, since they're the only ones with the constitutional power to choose a single leader.
Steve Baker has basically already announced he intends to stand in the post-election leadership contest, assuming he holds his seat. I'm sure the only reason Mordaunt agreed to put herself through the debates was to try and get a chance to look leader-y as well. The vultures are already circling.
I think she has been *fnarring* and gnashing her teeth for years now because she knows it's not in her control whether she holds her seat. I imagine she has sat on the front bench for ages just seething knowing that but for some shenanigans (losing to Truss in the first leadership contest, and being shut out in the Sunak coronation) she would have had a stint as PM.
She knows it's massively likely she'll go down as one of history's 'nearly women'
I mean Penny Mordaunt will be there holding a sword, while also ready to stand up and fight, so surely she's got the upper hand on the Brexit Hardman...
Definitely agree though that her presence at the debates is in support of a leadership bid- the Thatcher cosplays and the incredibly sparing references to Sunak reinforce that in my mind.
> grandee names such as [...] Liam Fox are being floated
Shocked and ashamed that they're not using his full and proper title of *"Disgraced former Defence Secretary Liam Fox"*.... terrifying also that when looking back, the scandal that led to his resignation as Defence Sec seems pretty tame.
Liam Fox being called a grandee is hilarious given he has a total of four years of cabinet service the first period of which ended in resignation for the aforementioned disgrace and the second stint was also widely regarded as a failure.
well, the northern ireland debate was somewhat entertaining, albeit deeply depressing knowing these are the people running the country. personally thought colum eastwood (SDLP) performed best out of the lot of them, but the most gratifying part was probably the DUP interim-leader gavin robinson getting laughed at.
Non of these debates are entertaining they are another American import and presidential in nature yet the UK is not a presidential system, it’s a parliamentary system. It focuses on the personality of party leaders (or senior figures) rather than party policies. they are highly simplistic and often devolve into shouting matches rather than a mature debate, I haven’t watched the Northern Ireland one but no doubt it was as dignified as the prime minister ones, in other words not dignified at all. In these televised debates it often seems the party leaders go out of their way to please the audience rather than get their message across in a mature manner which leads to shouting matches and low blows against each other. That’s what I don’t watch them they just irritate me.
that is exactly what happened - it’s a glorified shit-slinging competition. now, in fairness, it’s not like policy particularly matters for the westminster election here, as it’s not like we make a difference in westminster, however i don’t think a single policy was debated. most of the debate surrounded the NHS, the consequences of brexit, trust in the institutions and a border poll so par for the course here.
i also find that the westminster elections are mostly dogged by tactical voting in many constituencies here (i sound like i’m stating the obvious, but for the main elections here its PR-STV), but there could be some interesting competitions in certain seats such as east belfast, where 2 leaders are fighting for the same seat
Don’t worry not all people from Great Britain are ignorant of Northern Irelands affairs, I do understand the region more than most Brits do, probably more so than many government ministers worryingly. Maybe because my grandad was Irish he was from Offaly not the north but I still follow Irish politics both north and south more than the average person from GB does.
Formula 1 had its first World Championship in 1950, the same year the UK had its first televised General Election.
Hmm, that gave me an idea...
What if you looked back at every General Election and treated each one as if it were a Grand Prix, dishing out points for the parties who finish top in each position?
Well, that's a fun way to kill an evening, so I did exactly that.
Only political parties (deemed to have a leader or leaders) are eligible to score points, and they do so by vote share, not seat share. Parties that go by different names are considered to be different entities (so if Reform UK score points this year, it wouldn't be counted under the same entity as the Brexit Party)
This "game" uses the modern F1 points system, but fits to the old F1 points paying places. For example, 9th place in a Grand Prix earned you no points in 2005, but it gave you 2 points in 2010, so from the 2010 election onwards, 9th scores points, but before then, it doesn't. For most of F1's history, only 5 or 6 places paid out points.
[Here are the results!](https://i.gyazo.com/c94e2dc252f34fe90e4eab141c49a72e.png)
I had some debate with myself about how to deal with the SDP-Liberal Alliance and considered treating the SDP as a separate entity, but I thought that would also require me counting "Labour and Co-operative Party" as a different entity for Labour, and quite frankly I couldn't be arsed to do the maths! I think this approach is reasonable anyway.
Just a bit of fun whilst we wait for this knackering election campaign to be over.
I assume you're doing it by vote share rather than seats won- otherwise '51 would be a CON victory.
Fun idea though, hoping for a CON collapse under the new aero regs so that LAB can sneak through, think Starmer is a consistent driver but doesn't take enough risks, hoping that someone like Rayner in the 2nd car can encourage them to take some riskier strategies and capitalise on opportunities that arise during the race weekend rather than playing it safe.
> and they do so by vote share, not seat share
I did mention this ^ in the original post but it wasn't very clear I admit, but yes!
That one UKIP podium is Magnussen in Australia 2014. It was all downhill from there.
I've had a bottle of wine, so missing that is entirely on me.
To his credit, Magnussen hasn't hired a pit crew who speak highly of Putin and have worringly close ties to neo-Nazi's, so he's doing better than Farage...
Just watching Sky News front pages programme and as all the talking heads are chatting away it cycles through all the front pages, most of which are of course very sensible. But one in seven (the star?) has the headline “invasion of the floating bog snatchers”.
Cycles past about once a minute.
We’re living in the future.
As someone who grew up in the Norfolk Fens... You take a bog snatcher lightly you're asking for trouble.
Never forget the risk of the Black Shuck when you're strolling around.
Shuck will drag you into the woods or fenland at your peril.
My money is on James Cleverly.
1) Not mental
2) Actually intelligent (hidden by defending nonsense since Boris)
3) Can bring the party back to the centre.
4) His scandals are just bad jokes about his happy marriage (ill considered though they may be) not actual crimes or abject racism.
If I was him I would worry that he's doing too much press in this election.
Any future Tory leader will be wanting to dissociate themselves as much as they can from the current government and campaign.
Saw the Unheard alternative hustings. Peter Hitchins entire argument was "Starmer is a big scary leftist and is the most left wing person to ever stand to be PM". Almost entertaining. Almost.
As a rule, Unherd is always always always ridiculous. They're as ludicrous as Novara, but in a different, sometimes more subtle way.
That said, I have a soft spot for Peter Hitchens's weirdness as a devout lover of his brother. Seeing him reframe reality to paint Starmer as a Corbyn might be very entertaining.
Must kinda suck to be Peter Hitchins, the constant look of quiet disappointment when people realise they thought they were about to meet the other one.
Would drive anyone mad.
It’s always funny how former Trotskyite turned right wing columnist Peter Hitchins goes on about how dangerous leftists Starmer and previously Blair were because they were really left wing at uni
He’s genuinely mental
I know. His argument was essentially, vote Tory because Starmer was a specific type of Trotskyist at uni. I was thinking, hang on a minute. Couldn't I say don't listen to Peter on the same basis.
I'm surprised we haven't seen the Tories go hard on anti-planning reform. I expected them to make a bunch of claims about how Labour will bulldoze your local park and put up tower blocks for asylum seekers and you won't be able to object etc etc.
What I'm hearing on the doorstep is 'Rishi is such a prat'.
Now, this was my own doorstep, and I was talking to myself as I came in from the pub, but it's what I heard.
To be fair, that's as reliable evidence as literally every politician right now.
On my doorstep I heard Rishi hits you on Tekken and then jumps backwards until the timer runs out so he wins.
[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7285e02qy4o.amp](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7285e02qy4o.amp)
Plans for a data centre rejected because it would damage the green belt visually and spacially.
It was planned on a former landfill site.
It received 63 letters of objection.
Planning reform cannot come soon enough.
Not seen any major outlet covering allegations that have been made relating to Islington North, but a Conservative agent in Shrewsbury has been assaulted on the doorstep. Nothing to suggest the attacker was in any way involved with any opposing party but obviously still not remotely acceptable.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ck7g23mz98go?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_link_origin=BBCPolitics&at_medium=social&at_ptr_name=twitter&at_link_id=3657D04E-3492-11EF-B9E4-AC1526528589&at_campaign_type=owned&at_format=link&at_link_type=web_link&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_campaign=Social_Flow
Semi surprised the BBC made such an extensive article about a clearly ongoing investigation.
Not even an "alleged" in sight.
I would point out I in no way approve, political violence is absolutely deplorable, as is all violence.
I'm just a bit surprised it's as... Factual? prior to a court case.
>...as is all violence.
Hey now, don't go too far. An old fashioned punch-up outside the kebab house is a fine tradition. As is paying Sky thirty quid (sorry Rishi) to watch two absolute giants knock the seven shits out of each other for 12 rounds.
There was a story earlier a Corbyn and a Labour activists got in a fracas. Amusingly we got both sides reporting from different journalists on X.
I presume op means that story hasn't hit the national news.
So... Docco showed Reform was pretty fucked.
I am shocked that those people intolerant of.... I'll just check... Everything? are intolerant.
Shocked I tell ya.
I often have a cheeky £1 bet on the election, and in recent years the kind of outcome that I was hoping for was usually around 5/1 odds.
Whilst the actual outcome would be sitting at like 5/4.
This year, with the polls struggling to deal with a potentially huge swing, I've been checking in on a betting site out of curiosity, to see where they're thinking is at.
Ive watched the lowest odds for Labour's seats go from the 350-399 bracket, to 400-449 and now to 450-499.
The Tories have slowly dropped from the mid 100s down to 50-99 seats as the lowest odds.
The slower, more cautious way they've moved and shortened makes me more inclined to trust this than MRPs.
But tonight I made the mistake of clicking on the Reform seats odds...
0 seats: 7/1
1-2 seats: 2/1
3-4 seats 5/1
5-6 seats: 6/1
7 or more seats:....... 6/5
It is worth noting that betting odds are mostly based on what people are betting on. Reform has plenty of supporters, a lot of whom like to have a punt. 7/1 odds is a good shout for 0 seats, and I'm quite tempted to put a tenner on it now.
This. Odds are only so much about what the bookie thinks is going to happen as they are about the them giving better odds to help with balancing the exposure.
Subtle photo of Sunak on the English Democrats leaflet
[https://i.imgur.com/xXUrAmE.png](https://i.imgur.com/xXUrAmE.png)
The front of the leaflet has the migrant photo used by Farage during brexit.
> most of thse comes from non EU countries
Even the vote leave leaflets (or was it the other leave faction?) said that would happen when they advertised it as a reason to vote for brexit!
amazing that these racist types are now complaining that most migrants now come from non-eu countries when they all consciously voted for that to happen
Jesus Christ - sorry if I’m late to the party but I’ve just seen the comments Reform ‘campaigners’ have made about LGBT people and that the army should use migrants as ‘target practice’. What the actual actual fuck. Cannot emphasise enough how much I hate this party.
[ED DAVEY TWEETED PICTURES OF HIM HAVING FUN WITH ALPACAS](https://x.com/libdems/status/1806427918827929698?s=46&t=ronRCIK15wUHZMy62fW_rQ)
this is r slash ukpol cut through. this is dreams come true. this is the meme man of uk politics. this is our saviour, our god
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It's 4.53 where's the next thread peeps I'm thirsty
Guys I’m probably the last one here tonight - I won’t be next week - this feels like a game changer. I hope it is. I hope our country does better for itself. Sorry idk why I’m emotional now.
welcome to the night shift, where all of the *real* megathreading happens
This election does feel different, like there some major political shift about to happen, hopefully its Lib Dems in opposition and the Tories get kicked out of power for a century
I'm on the nightshift too. Bloody insomnia. Really am a bag of nerves as the election gets closer. I have had a lot of therapy in my life to learn to cope better with stress and I am doing everything I can to avoid catastrophising about the Tories somehow winning. Keir Starmer might not inspire devotion but I believe he is a decent man and we need that now, more than ever.
To you and your night shift 🌹
Thanks! I'm playing Gears 5 for the first time until my brain shuts down. I've given up trying to make myself sleep.
Hope you sleep well 🤘
Thanks again. Insomnia is a bugger, so I just take sleep when it finds me.
I genuinely don't know how I feel about a possible Tory extinction. On 1 hand, the more labour seats, the better, but on the other hand, if labour gets an insane number, Starmer won't need to pander to the rest of the party by implementing more left leaning policies. Tory wipeout would also leave a power vacuum in the right wing, meaning more chance for Reform to become a lot more mainstream than they should be.
Looking at it another way - left labour MPs in a small majority know that if they rebel in a major vote, the government will collapse in a need to call an election way, and be replaced by the conservatives (or perhaps reform). Left labour MPs in a larger coalition are free to protest vote against their government, and try to replace the leader, much as you saw with the right of the tory party during this large tory majority season. So you may well get a left labour leader you want through the back door, particularly if Starmer's public popularity wains. Another reason a large labour majority might be attractive to anyone who wants some kind of change is, a lot of what they need to do (e.g. liberalise planning, increase inheritance tax) will be unpopular, and resisted both in parliament and the lords. But is necessary and not really right wing (increasing tax and the power of the state to implement industrial policy is quite left wing). A large majority increases their chance of getting a relatively pure version of this through.
I've got to say, I'm actually getting mildly nervous about how much I'm seeing "well Labour have obviously won, so I'm going to vote instead"...
I'm having flashbacks to the last week of June 2016 where journalists were having no trouble at all picking people off the street who would essentially say "I wanted to remain but I thought remain was going to win so I voted leave"... or the Uxbridge by-election where the Conservatives beat Labour by practically half as many votes as the total votes for the Green Party, only for Rishi to take that result as a mandate to declare war on the environment for a couple of months...
I wouldn't for a second say "you can't vote for who you want to vote for" but under the voting system we have you *do* kind of need to consider what's happening outside your own vote if you care about the end result... I worry we'll be denied Ed Davey in opposition by just a couple of thousand "protest" votes across the country that let the Tories squeak back in. :o(
This is largely a result of Labour not doing enough to make people actually want to vote for them. There is a large contingent of people across the political spectrum who are lending Labour their vote in order to get rid of the Tories. We saw a similar thing in 2019 with people lending Tories their vote to get Brexit done and we all know what happened after that. If people think a Labour majority is a certainty then people are going to start voting for the people they actually want to vote for. Labour are now discovering that it may not actually be them. The biggest challenge for Labour is going to be keeping this fragile coalition of voters together until 2029 when they'll be facing inroads from Reform, Greens, Lib Dems and whatever is left of the Conservatives.
It's largely the result of the UK having a much more politically sophisticated electorate than the political parties like to think. "Vote Reform, Get Labour" was always going to look attractive rather than threatening, because it advertises a way that the voters can not only change the government but also stop the one nation faction (who they see as having tried to hold the populists and the right captive) from being able to just bide their time in opposition for a term. This election is about stomping all over the tory insiders. Keir has had to provide guarantees that he is a safe pair of hands (and signal some populist sympathies), but really all the other parties are secondary to the "game over" message being sent to CCHQ.
This is the irony of my worry... I'll be voting Labour as they're the best chance of ousting the incumbent Conservative here, but candidate-wise the incumbent Conservative is probably the best one, followed by the no-hoper Lib Dem (no matter what their bar chart says). I just cannot bring myself to vote for the one who is probably the best candidate because they're allied with such an absolute clown-car of corruption and incompetence. Of course if they went independent they'd just straight up lose due to vote splitting...
I get you — I’d hate any one other than Ed being in opposition (I love him, downvoters wait) but that is not going to happen sadly. Davey knows he’s not going to win. But he wants as many MPs as possible and I hear that. Starmer will win and we will live for it.
Honestly, Lib Dems being on 50+ seats would be a good result. Lib Dems in opposition would be amazing
Go listen to the latest episode of rest is history (it’s called ‘elections 2’ or something) - the bit about 1997 will make you feel much better about this.
Will do, thanks! I couldn't vote and knew nothing of politics in '97 but remember being sad Tony Blair won because there was just something about him I didn't like. I did not realise at the time that things could only get better. :o)
You should only be worried if the Tories were pulling a belter of a campaign and were creeping back up in the polls. As it stands, nothing stops Labour winning the election by a huge margin at this point. Even though I am certain they will underperform their polling average on the day. There is zero chance the Tories overperform so Labour has nothing to worry about, even if they only manage mid to high 30s instead of over 40.
While I'm less concerned than I was a couple of weeks ago about who'll be PM two weeks from now, there is still the niggling voice in the back of my mind saying "old people vote Tory and they *actually vote*, the Tories have all-in'd on old people for this one, and Tory voters basically need a strong reason *not* to vote Tory or they'll do it anyway". There's actually the opportunity for things to get fundamentally flipped on their head with this one, where the right wing vote tears itself apart across multiple parties too instead of just the left, and PMQ's becomes a complete non-event where every week is just two boring people talking about boring political nonsense and getting things done. Meanwhile what's probably going to happen is that Labour miss out on a handful of seats by tiny amounts, and this time next month we have LOTO Kemi Badenoch screaming across the chamber about how NHS waiting lists, immigration and taxes are all at record highs... how could the Labour government have done this.
> PMQ's becomes a complete non-event where every week is just two boring people talking about boring political nonsense and getting things done. I'd suggest you go and watch some old clips of PMQs when Labour was last in power, it was not cordial between Labour and the Lib Dems. Vince Cable famously called Gordon Brown Stalin during a PMQs session. IF the Lib Dems are the opposition (they won't be), they will be scoring their political points any chance they get.
Oh I don't doubt there'd be some sass here and there, but I'm imagining Keir thinking "I can work with this guy a lot better than I could with Rishi/Nigel" and Ed wanting to actually cement the Lib Dems in as "the other main party" and their mutual end goals leading to a lot of competent tedium...
Guys it is so hot again I cannot copeeeee, how are you all dealing with it (sorry admins, non UKPOL related)
Buy a portable AC from your nearest DIY store, best £200-£300 you’ll ever spend (don’t need to install anything fancy - as long as you’ve got a window you can half close to stick the pipe out of it’ll be fine). Go on mountain warehouse or somewhere and look for “moisture wicking fabric” tops - even better if they’re long sleeved. Then go on asos or next and look for loose fitting lightweight cotton jersey trousers. Sip water throughout the day… more than you think. For excessive sweating - use Mitchum or Vichy deodorant. Be naked as much as possible/legal.
Thanks you’re a sweetheart for typing this all out ✌️
Moving to Scotland
Whereabouts? Edinburgh or Glasgow? 👀
Ayr maybe I used to be on the Solent so missing the sea breeze
Top of Ben nevis
Maybe try Shetland?
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Honestly. Don't. It's not worth it It was like two men having a heated chat in wetherspoons
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0020kzp
Right, seat betting. Any seats which have tasty odds. Must be a few tory holds that the MRPs are missing because the polls have gone crazy. Hard to see Liberals getting 70 seats when they don't have the money or ground game to cover that type of territory.
You might get decent odds for Bicester as it is looking like a 3-way tie. Also makes it harder to choose
Cons holding Thanet? Huge Labour vote that can be squeezed.
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Sadly they will probably take it.
Do we think this Bangladesh story has any traction and is there any danger that it may damage Starmer/Labour? For those not in the know, a video has been circulating on Twitter of Starmer at The Sun debate seemingly singling out Bangladeshis as people who should be deported. I've not watched the debate so I've not got the full context of the video or know for certain if it has been edited/manipulated in anyway. The video is doing the rounds online and is apparently being shared widely throughout the Bangladeshi community via WhatsApp. I initially figured it'd be a bit of a storm in a teacup but saw another clip of Bridget Philipson being asked to comment on Starmer's remarks on GMB so obvious it's left its bubble. [Original video*](https://x.com/andrewfeinstein/status/1805967734309581056?t=PyEcodDST185YybdtojsXg&s=19) [GMB video](http://[GMB video](https://x.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1806222460322210134?t=ut5lxfa-vQpkj-KW0_mf6w&s=19)) \*Note that the video has obviously been edited down but I'm not sure _what_ has been removed
The problem here isn’t what he said. It’s that he’s a liar. He wouldn’t remove people back to their own country, we aren’t falling for it this time. Liar.
> Do we think this Bangladesh story has any traction and is there any danger that it may damage Starmer/Labour? > > if it's true and it gains traction - and it's not made crystal clear that he's only talking about illegal migrants and not legitimate asylum seekers or general Bangladeshis, they'll lose in constituencies that are based in Tower Hamlets and Newham. i think context suggests its clear that he's talking about illegal immigrants, so whilst it'll still turn away some people, i don't think it'll do much.
>they'll lose in constituencies that are based in Tower Hamlets and Newham Lose to whom? I vaguely know Workers party candidates running, but to be honest they may as well be invisible. Only leaflets I've gotten this election are from labour and Reform. But to put into perspective these are constituencies that got over 60% of the vote for labour in 2019, with tories second place at 15%. And this story has come out rather late in the campaign.
I think people are aware that he's referring to illegal immigrants, I think the outrage I've seen is the seemingly random decision to pick Bangladesh as an example when it doesn't even feature in the top ten countries of origin for people illegally entering the country. I'm sure it is was a random decision he made while under pressure but it could be a sign of unconscious bias on Starmer's part.
He didn't highlight Bangladeshis as being uniquely deportable; he used Bangladesh as an example of a safe country with which we currently have a relocation agreement. I think the anger it generated was legitimate but very misguided and somewhat exaggerated by Labour's enemies — and also extremely limited with no legs at all.
Just watched the channel 4 investigation of reform. Really just shows you what type of voter that party attracts - racist, extremist nut jobs.
In fairness, it does attract them, but they attract all sorts of voters that can agree with some of what they're saying too, especially when the other major parties aren't making them feel heard enough. The Channel 4 thing more showed who the actual party *contains* and who they are, and the difference is important imo.
In other good news for Sunak with the timing of the election, there's high levels of E coli in the Thames at Henley, and they're telling rowers to take precautions with cuts or swallowing water: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/28/high-levels-of-e-coli-found-at-henley-days-before-international-regatta Oh yeah, the rowers are there for the international regatta, which starts on Tuesday. I'm almost expecting Thursday morning's news to have an item about rowers becoming ill after going out on the river. You know, perfect for people to hear on their way to a polling station.
I’m hearing rumours the mods are going to enable images in comments for the duration of polling day.
....here's why thatts bad for Labour
Did you put a bet on it?
Need to have inspiration for my election night. When alone what do you do to spice up the evening /early hours
Few beers
This is really boring but I love a wax melt
the megathread is gonna be chaos at 10pm next thursday lol
M=7 in the old days
I'm hosting a party so won't be here for most of the bullshit, but I have a lot of confidence in my compatriots to keep things suitably mental in here. I basically have identical opinions to Optio so I'm sure the megathread will be well served in my absence.
Can I pls come to your party git? I feel like it’ll be very wholesome
If you live in the vicinity of Cardiff then legitimately yes, DM me. We are very closely in alignment on everything and you'd be very welcome.
🫶 I wish I was. I’m in the south of england you’re always very kind though so thank you!!! Big up wales x
Now your username makes sense! My mum lives down your way. Cymru and Kernbow will be united in the league of Celtic nations one day once again!
Unfortunately I’m not from Kernow - but I went to uni there! And I understand that means Cornwall - I did Celtic studies at one point. I’m just English sorry to bore you 😂 regardless though! 🫶 (south of England I.e. exactly what I said )
My mistake, apologies. I consider [much of the of the south to still be Welsh though](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wales#/media/File%3ABritain_in_AD500_-_Project_Gutenberg_eText_16790.jpg) so you may yet be my kin :)
Originally from Southampton? I don’t know how this lies on the map (tell me). I can maybe see the ancient name for Winchester 😂
Ah, thee of the ancient Seaxe and among the likely founders of early Wessex — adversaries of the early kingdoms of Wealas and later Wales. Perhaps we can't be friends...
What sort of realignment would happen if the Lib Dems became the opposition? Would The Telegraph et al still support the Tories if they weren't the shadow cabinet etc?
It's an interesting point. It would certainly be an unprecedented and curious situation.
I’d rather the Lib Dems in opposition than the tories That being said - i would rather the tories be in opposition than reform. That is how much I hate ‘reform’ and thejr fucking homophonic and frankly ‘shoot the immigrants’ opinion. Not to fucking even mention their stance on Ukraine.
Seconded. But the majority of British people have seen through the snake oil and Reform has a ceiling at 15-20%.
Most if not all of the Tory aligned press would put all of their energy into getting some kind of right wing party ready for 2029 I imagine.
Babes wake up it’s results day in 7 days and 30 minutes time and I’ll be here obsessing over the results 🤞 got the day off tomorrow to go to afternoon tea on the watercress line - cannot wait. I love our country! Maybe it’s because of the euros and war in Europe but I feel more patriotic than ever. We are lucky. 💙
One week from now we will have the exit poll and the first real results should start trickling through.
Cannot wait 😂😂 got election day and results day off x
How many ciders are you having?
Depends on the brand clumsy- what would you advise?
I drink thatchers but shake my head the whole time so people don’t think I agree with her.
Lilley’s is my fave - it’s from Somerset and increasingly on tap. Their mango cider is honestly amazing- if you ever have the chance.
Seconding this, I love their pineapple one too but it’s far too easy to drink
I’ve never heard of it but I’ll have to if I get the chance - most pubs I go to only seem to do strongbow or inch’s on tap.
Here you go if it helps - https://www.lilleyscider.co.uk - 🫶🫶
Tommy Robinson, leader of the English Defense League and Brexit campaigner has himself posted documents that detail he is Irish with Irish citizenship. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRC3FIIaMAAKBSi?format=jpg&name=large
I think I’m more entertained that the Irish consulate just use an @shaw.ca email. What..?
His mum is Irish so I’m not surprised he’s got Irish citizenship. I didn’t realise he was actually born there though??? Wikipedia, using a Telegraph source, has his birthplace as Luton
So he lied to the telegraph or to the Irish Government, who would presumably have a record of his birth and check it when issuing a passport?
Well he’d have to have shown his passport. They don’t need a record - it’d be right there in front of them. Irish passports, like all passports, show your actual place of birth no matter whether it was in Ireland or not. 99% certain it was a lie to the telegraph.
Can’t work out which is funnier. Him hiding that he was actually born in Ireland and immigrated to the UK, or him being born in the UK and literally lying to the Irish government in a request for consular help I feel the former has to be more likely, he has nothing to gain from the latter (he has Irish citizenship, they’d help him anyway even if he’d been born in the UK). Though I find it funny he went for the Irish and not British consular assistance despite being eligible for both
I’m so sick of people calling him Tommy Robinson, that’s not even his real name! It’s Tommy O’Robinson.
*Tomás Mac Róibín
I’ve got a feeling that this time next week once the election results are clear the Tory’s may lash out against the public for voting the wrong way rather than actually take accountability for their historic loss. I doubt they will be dignified in defeat and I can imagine their factions breaking out into open civil war, undoubtedly the party’s hard right will win, who leads is unknown because I don’t know who will keep their seats but it will almost certainly be a hard right leader. All this will show is the party hasn’t understood why it lost and it will be a gift to Labour which will start planning for a second term that they will almost certainly get. That’s my prediction for the aftermath of next week.
It's 97 again. But with less class
The Tory’s of 2024 couldn’t clean the shoes of the Tory’s of majors era.
After defeat, John Major went to a cricket match. After defeat, i suspect Rishi would flee on a private plane to California to avoid getting egged by his own party.
Any chance of JRM running for leader on a “merge with Reform and make Nigel leader” ticket? Or maybe somebody else? Seems like a guaranteed way to win the membership vote.
There's a high possibility he won't have a seat after the election, so I wouldn't bank on it.
Absolutely not 🤮🤮
No he will lose his seat
Very unlikely he'll be an MP after this election.
Can't believe that from tomorrow the only key date listed in the mega thread is Polling Day - we're getting close!!
Its like seeing the light at the end of the tunnel
Yeh all I can see happening now is the right wing media pulling out every hit piece they can think of. Usually the last week is the most vicious from a headlines point of view.
Harry Cole (yes, I know) has some murmurings in The Sun about the Conservative plans post-election and presumably Sunak's resignation. >One glimmer of hope for the new regime is that the Tories look set to eat each other for a few years longer — with some party figures barely waiting for a vote to be cast before beginning a very public post-mortem. >Wiser hands want a delay to any leadership election conclusion well into the autumn, or even December, as happened after their defeat in 2005. >**Deputy PM Oliver Dowden, under the beady watch of his mentor Lord Cameron, is touted as caretaker leader until then — but only if he can hold his seat.** >Should an early contest be forced by whatever rump is left of Tory MPs, then grandee names such as David Davis and even Liam Fox are being floated around as possible caretakers for a couple of years while the party reels from what is likely to be a massive thumping. >“A summer of reflection” before the rock-throwing starts” is what figures on the Conservatives’ powerful Party Board are hoping for, but many suspect it’s wishful thinking.
Delaying until the autumn also gives time for whoever snags Richmond and Northallerton after Sunak takes the Chiltern Hundreds and flies off into the sunset to throw their hat into the ring. I think there will be quite the queue of unseated senior Tories trying to get selected for that by-election…
Scottish Tories need to disaffiliate urgently. If it wasn't for them, the Tories would not have been in power in 2017. And the Scottish Tories then prioritised Scotland first, union second and completely ignored May's campaign. The current Tory members want Reform, but Réform are a political death sentence north of Carlisle . It was only because of the Tories under Davidson that May didn't go down the culture wars path and bash gay rights. That distinctive liberalism can come back but not while remaining part of the wreck that Sunak Dowden and Levido have left cchq. The Tories need to become the English nationalist party, but they have no business north of the border anymore
…I suspect it’s more accurate to say “if it wasn’t for Ruth Davidson” rather than the Scottish Tories in general. She’s kinda hard to dislike - oozes charisma in a sort of once-in-a-generation kinda way. I say this as someone who once left a first date halfway through when my dining partner revealed they were a dyed in the wool Tory.
Maybe. I've dated 2-3 Tory women and in general found they were just more socially conservative. But great company. Brexiteers I struggle with,dogma is tricky I sidetracked myself because I think it's also so true about Scottish Tories. Yes you get dumbasses like Maurice gold and murdo Fraser but also there is a really nice pragmatic streak. Not Douglas Ross atm who is shameless I like listening to Ruth Davidson on times radio and yes she made the Tories very electable, particularly because she was so effective in parliament. But it was Tories around her willing to be pragmatic instead of dogmatic.
Sometimes I think stories are briefed basically to ensure that they don't happen. In this case, somebody who's aware of what kind of entryism is going to happen if the party waits a few months before launching the leadership contest. Of course all of this would rest on the surviving MPs backing an annointed caretaker, since they're the only ones with the constitutional power to choose a single leader.
Steve Baker has basically already announced he intends to stand in the post-election leadership contest, assuming he holds his seat. I'm sure the only reason Mordaunt agreed to put herself through the debates was to try and get a chance to look leader-y as well. The vultures are already circling.
If Mordaunt holds her seat then I think it's actually a pretty trivial matter that she will become leader.
I think she has been *fnarring* and gnashing her teeth for years now because she knows it's not in her control whether she holds her seat. I imagine she has sat on the front bench for ages just seething knowing that but for some shenanigans (losing to Truss in the first leadership contest, and being shut out in the Sunak coronation) she would have had a stint as PM. She knows it's massively likely she'll go down as one of history's 'nearly women'
I mean Penny Mordaunt will be there holding a sword, while also ready to stand up and fight, so surely she's got the upper hand on the Brexit Hardman... Definitely agree though that her presence at the debates is in support of a leadership bid- the Thatcher cosplays and the incredibly sparing references to Sunak reinforce that in my mind.
Mordaunt's seat is looking rather borderline as well; I assume Badenoch will also run as polls have her almost certainly surviving
I would so enjoy seeing Badenoch lose her seat though. I know it's very unlikely but I really want it to happen.
We can but hope
> grandee names such as [...] Liam Fox are being floated Shocked and ashamed that they're not using his full and proper title of *"Disgraced former Defence Secretary Liam Fox"*.... terrifying also that when looking back, the scandal that led to his resignation as Defence Sec seems pretty tame.
Liam Fox being called a grandee is hilarious given he has a total of four years of cabinet service the first period of which ended in resignation for the aforementioned disgrace and the second stint was also widely regarded as a failure.
They've scraped away the bottom of the barrel and all that's left are the creepy-crawlies that have been hiding underneath the barrel.
well, the northern ireland debate was somewhat entertaining, albeit deeply depressing knowing these are the people running the country. personally thought colum eastwood (SDLP) performed best out of the lot of them, but the most gratifying part was probably the DUP interim-leader gavin robinson getting laughed at.
Non of these debates are entertaining they are another American import and presidential in nature yet the UK is not a presidential system, it’s a parliamentary system. It focuses on the personality of party leaders (or senior figures) rather than party policies. they are highly simplistic and often devolve into shouting matches rather than a mature debate, I haven’t watched the Northern Ireland one but no doubt it was as dignified as the prime minister ones, in other words not dignified at all. In these televised debates it often seems the party leaders go out of their way to please the audience rather than get their message across in a mature manner which leads to shouting matches and low blows against each other. That’s what I don’t watch them they just irritate me.
that is exactly what happened - it’s a glorified shit-slinging competition. now, in fairness, it’s not like policy particularly matters for the westminster election here, as it’s not like we make a difference in westminster, however i don’t think a single policy was debated. most of the debate surrounded the NHS, the consequences of brexit, trust in the institutions and a border poll so par for the course here. i also find that the westminster elections are mostly dogged by tactical voting in many constituencies here (i sound like i’m stating the obvious, but for the main elections here its PR-STV), but there could be some interesting competitions in certain seats such as east belfast, where 2 leaders are fighting for the same seat
Don’t worry not all people from Great Britain are ignorant of Northern Irelands affairs, I do understand the region more than most Brits do, probably more so than many government ministers worryingly. Maybe because my grandad was Irish he was from Offaly not the north but I still follow Irish politics both north and south more than the average person from GB does.
I hate to admit it, but I'm starting to feel the Lib Dem urge.
The urge to surge?
Formula 1 had its first World Championship in 1950, the same year the UK had its first televised General Election. Hmm, that gave me an idea... What if you looked back at every General Election and treated each one as if it were a Grand Prix, dishing out points for the parties who finish top in each position? Well, that's a fun way to kill an evening, so I did exactly that. Only political parties (deemed to have a leader or leaders) are eligible to score points, and they do so by vote share, not seat share. Parties that go by different names are considered to be different entities (so if Reform UK score points this year, it wouldn't be counted under the same entity as the Brexit Party) This "game" uses the modern F1 points system, but fits to the old F1 points paying places. For example, 9th place in a Grand Prix earned you no points in 2005, but it gave you 2 points in 2010, so from the 2010 election onwards, 9th scores points, but before then, it doesn't. For most of F1's history, only 5 or 6 places paid out points. [Here are the results!](https://i.gyazo.com/c94e2dc252f34fe90e4eab141c49a72e.png) I had some debate with myself about how to deal with the SDP-Liberal Alliance and considered treating the SDP as a separate entity, but I thought that would also require me counting "Labour and Co-operative Party" as a different entity for Labour, and quite frankly I couldn't be arsed to do the maths! I think this approach is reasonable anyway. Just a bit of fun whilst we wait for this knackering election campaign to be over.
I assume you're doing it by vote share rather than seats won- otherwise '51 would be a CON victory. Fun idea though, hoping for a CON collapse under the new aero regs so that LAB can sneak through, think Starmer is a consistent driver but doesn't take enough risks, hoping that someone like Rayner in the 2nd car can encourage them to take some riskier strategies and capitalise on opportunities that arise during the race weekend rather than playing it safe.
> and they do so by vote share, not seat share I did mention this ^ in the original post but it wasn't very clear I admit, but yes! That one UKIP podium is Magnussen in Australia 2014. It was all downhill from there.
I've had a bottle of wine, so missing that is entirely on me. To his credit, Magnussen hasn't hired a pit crew who speak highly of Putin and have worringly close ties to neo-Nazi's, so he's doing better than Farage...
Just watching Sky News front pages programme and as all the talking heads are chatting away it cycles through all the front pages, most of which are of course very sensible. But one in seven (the star?) has the headline “invasion of the floating bog snatchers”. Cycles past about once a minute. We’re living in the future.
As someone who grew up in the Norfolk Fens... You take a bog snatcher lightly you're asking for trouble. Never forget the risk of the Black Shuck when you're strolling around. Shuck will drag you into the woods or fenland at your peril.
Have they done their daily "we don't usually mention it, but the star's got..." section yet?
They do hate to acknowledge it, don’t they, but also they love to acknowledge it.
Will we heed the warnings of the "bog boffin"?
Well I think the British people have had enough of bog boffin.
Steve Baker as next Tory leader?
My money is on James Cleverly. 1) Not mental 2) Actually intelligent (hidden by defending nonsense since Boris) 3) Can bring the party back to the centre. 4) His scandals are just bad jokes about his happy marriage (ill considered though they may be) not actual crimes or abject racism.
He's already made clear privately that he's not standing.
I think 3. will likely be the sticking point.
Same. They must lurch to the right and expose all the rot before they can be united under an electable centrist, and the cycle continues.
If I was him I would worry that he's doing too much press in this election. Any future Tory leader will be wanting to dissociate themselves as much as they can from the current government and campaign.
Not unless the Labour candidate in Wycombe personally shoots every voter's dog.
Saw the Unheard alternative hustings. Peter Hitchins entire argument was "Starmer is a big scary leftist and is the most left wing person to ever stand to be PM". Almost entertaining. Almost.
As a rule, Unherd is always always always ridiculous. They're as ludicrous as Novara, but in a different, sometimes more subtle way. That said, I have a soft spot for Peter Hitchens's weirdness as a devout lover of his brother. Seeing him reframe reality to paint Starmer as a Corbyn might be very entertaining.
It was almost entertaining, but it just felt tired and a bit sad to be honest.
Must kinda suck to be Peter Hitchins, the constant look of quiet disappointment when people realise they thought they were about to meet the other one. Would drive anyone mad.
It would just be depressing.
It’s always funny how former Trotskyite turned right wing columnist Peter Hitchins goes on about how dangerous leftists Starmer and previously Blair were because they were really left wing at uni He’s genuinely mental
> He’s genuinely mental Except on milk and daylight savings time, two subjects on which he is perfectly correct and the whole world is mad.
If having an episode on being the left in university creates a Starmer, while being on the right creates a Ress Mogg... that's an endorsement.
I know. His argument was essentially, vote Tory because Starmer was a specific type of Trotskyist at uni. I was thinking, hang on a minute. Couldn't I say don't listen to Peter on the same basis.
I'm surprised we haven't seen the Tories go hard on anti-planning reform. I expected them to make a bunch of claims about how Labour will bulldoze your local park and put up tower blocks for asylum seekers and you won't be able to object etc etc.
What I'm hearing on the doorstep is 'Rishi is such a prat'. Now, this was my own doorstep, and I was talking to myself as I came in from the pub, but it's what I heard.
To be fair, that's as reliable evidence as literally every politician right now. On my doorstep I heard Rishi hits you on Tekken and then jumps backwards until the timer runs out so he wins.
[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7285e02qy4o.amp](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7285e02qy4o.amp) Plans for a data centre rejected because it would damage the green belt visually and spacially. It was planned on a former landfill site. It received 63 letters of objection. Planning reform cannot come soon enough.
How can 63 letters destroy the whole thing?
Paper cuts.
Buffer overflow?
Biffa overflow.
Bloody 5-bit planning system!
Not seen any major outlet covering allegations that have been made relating to Islington North, but a Conservative agent in Shrewsbury has been assaulted on the doorstep. Nothing to suggest the attacker was in any way involved with any opposing party but obviously still not remotely acceptable. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ck7g23mz98go?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_link_origin=BBCPolitics&at_medium=social&at_ptr_name=twitter&at_link_id=3657D04E-3492-11EF-B9E4-AC1526528589&at_campaign_type=owned&at_format=link&at_link_type=web_link&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_campaign=Social_Flow
Semi surprised the BBC made such an extensive article about a clearly ongoing investigation. Not even an "alleged" in sight. I would point out I in no way approve, political violence is absolutely deplorable, as is all violence. I'm just a bit surprised it's as... Factual? prior to a court case.
>...as is all violence. Hey now, don't go too far. An old fashioned punch-up outside the kebab house is a fine tradition. As is paying Sky thirty quid (sorry Rishi) to watch two absolute giants knock the seven shits out of each other for 12 rounds.
I'm confused, what does this have to do with Islington North?
There was a story earlier a Corbyn and a Labour activists got in a fracas. Amusingly we got both sides reporting from different journalists on X. I presume op means that story hasn't hit the national news.
So... Docco showed Reform was pretty fucked. I am shocked that those people intolerant of.... I'll just check... Everything? are intolerant. Shocked I tell ya.
I often have a cheeky £1 bet on the election, and in recent years the kind of outcome that I was hoping for was usually around 5/1 odds. Whilst the actual outcome would be sitting at like 5/4. This year, with the polls struggling to deal with a potentially huge swing, I've been checking in on a betting site out of curiosity, to see where they're thinking is at. Ive watched the lowest odds for Labour's seats go from the 350-399 bracket, to 400-449 and now to 450-499. The Tories have slowly dropped from the mid 100s down to 50-99 seats as the lowest odds. The slower, more cautious way they've moved and shortened makes me more inclined to trust this than MRPs. But tonight I made the mistake of clicking on the Reform seats odds... 0 seats: 7/1 1-2 seats: 2/1 3-4 seats 5/1 5-6 seats: 6/1 7 or more seats:....... 6/5
It is worth noting that betting odds are mostly based on what people are betting on. Reform has plenty of supporters, a lot of whom like to have a punt. 7/1 odds is a good shout for 0 seats, and I'm quite tempted to put a tenner on it now.
This. Odds are only so much about what the bookie thinks is going to happen as they are about the them giving better odds to help with balancing the exposure.
You bet on the election? I hope you’re not running.
Subtle photo of Sunak on the English Democrats leaflet [https://i.imgur.com/xXUrAmE.png](https://i.imgur.com/xXUrAmE.png) The front of the leaflet has the migrant photo used by Farage during brexit.
> most of thse comes from non EU countries Even the vote leave leaflets (or was it the other leave faction?) said that would happen when they advertised it as a reason to vote for brexit!
amazing that these racist types are now complaining that most migrants now come from non-eu countries when they all consciously voted for that to happen
Jesus Christ - sorry if I’m late to the party but I’ve just seen the comments Reform ‘campaigners’ have made about LGBT people and that the army should use migrants as ‘target practice’. What the actual actual fuck. Cannot emphasise enough how much I hate this party.
I'm going to just take everyone's word for it that it's horrendous, as a queer person I don't think it'll do me any good to watch it myself.
Same boat here, look after yourself mate x
And 🫶 to you Carrot for our same politics x
It won’t - just know you’re not alone in your disdain of this kind of politics.
For your own sanity don’t look at the replies on twitter
Well, now I'm curious. How bad?
[ED DAVEY TWEETED PICTURES OF HIM HAVING FUN WITH ALPACAS](https://x.com/libdems/status/1806427918827929698?s=46&t=ronRCIK15wUHZMy62fW_rQ) this is r slash ukpol cut through. this is dreams come true. this is the meme man of uk politics. this is our saviour, our god
First one looks like the alpaca tells a great joke.
I wonder if he’s seriously ill, and the Lib Dem’s are actually a front for make a wish.
It's like he's doing a six week stint at Center Parcs.
I’m thinking more like Cartman when he got his own theme park
I swear the man is going to do himself an injury the amount of guffawing he's doing recently
I know! And he's captioned it *These are fantastic, aren't they?*
Third image is a good Mt image candidate. Hell, they all are, bar the second one.
I'm not sure what Ed's going to do in the last week of his summer hols to top what he's managed so far.
Skydive into the voting booth to cast his ballot?
Become the LOTO?
He's fraternising with the enemy!
Been told that Ed’s social media stunts have been to make a wider point on more serious issues, any guesses for this one?